BOWL SYSTEMS THAT KICKED ASS THE LAST FEW YRS(33-14 and 23-9 IN '07 / 29-12 IN '08)

[GOLDENGREEK]

Dec 19 Rutgers -2.5
Dec 19 Wyoming +12
Dec 22 Oregon State -2
Dec 23 California -3
Dec 24 Nevada -14
Dec 29 Miami-FL -3
Dec 31 Missouri -6.5
Dec 31 Air Force +5
Jan 1 Oregon -3.5
Jan 1 LSU +3
Jan 2 Arkansas -8
Jan 4 TCU -7
Jan 6 Central Michigan -4

[GOLDENGREEK]

are these also not in confliction with the running dog system? And are they also factored in with agreement to the running dog system?

those are for the systems used in post # 17-22

the running dog system is not incuded

its basically everything from post # 2

and there is no conflict with those

[mavskidd02]

those are for the systems used in post # 17-22

the running dog system is not incuded

its basically everything from post # 2

and there is no conflict with those

Got it. And FWIW, it looks as if Wisconsin is the only one where there is agreement.

Making picks for a few bowl pools. Info is helpful. Thanks.

[mavskidd02]

I just finished the math for the Running Dog system for all the bowl games this morning. IF I did the math correctly, I came up with the following...

Central Florida
Wisconsin
Temple
Idaho
Air Force
Iowa State
Connecticut
Oklahoma State
Michigan State

I did all this work in an Excel Spreadsheet so the only thing I could have screwed up was the formula, but I think I understood it from last year's thread. A couple other games were real close. For example, BYU is 0.54 and Oregon State is 0.56, only a difference of 0.02, but BYU is smaller and getting the points, so by the letter is was a no play.

Scott

THANK U ICD55 FOR THE HELP

MUCH APPRECIATTED

WE ARE VERY CLOSE !!


C. FLORIDA
TEMPLE
WISKY
IDAHO
AIR FORCE
IOWA ST
N.ILL
UCONN
MICH ST
IOWA

MIDDLE TN ST ( THIS ONE IS TIED BUT MID TENN ST IS A DOG)

Tell me if I'm missing something. Wouldn't Navy be one of these?

[GOLDENGREEK]

dogs getting 8 or more and favs giving 6 or less


2003-04 season
dogs of 7 or better(meaning +8......) went 7-3 ats 70%
favs of 6.5 or better(meaning -6,-5.5.....) went 9-6 ats 60%
for a total of 16-9 ats 64% winners

2004-05 season
dogs of 7 or better went 7-2 ats 78%
favs of 6.5 or beter went 10-7 59%
for a total of 17-9 ats 64% winners

2005-06 season
dogs of 7 or better went 13-1 ats 93%
favs of 6.5 or better went 7-5 ats 58%
for a total of 20-6 ats 77% winners

2006-07 season
dogs of 7 or better went 9-5 ats 64%
favs of 6.5 or better went 8-11 ats 42%
for a total of 17-16 ats 52% winners

2007-08 season
dogs of 7 or better went 7-3 ats 70%
favs of 6.5 or better went 15-8 ats 65%
for a total of 23-11 ats 68% winners

2008-09 season
dogs of 7 or better went 6-4 ats 60%
favs of 6.5 or better went 15-11 58%


*includes buying .5 hook either way so -7 can be +7.5 or -6.5


.

** watch the lines-- these may change:

Wyoming + 11
rutgers - 2.5
s.miss - 3.5
oregon st- 2.5
cal - 3.5
smu + 15
ohio - 2.5
pitt -3
b.c + 9
ucla - 3.5
miami - 3
b green - 1.5
arizona - 1.5
houst - 4.5
stanford + 8
minny - 2.5
vtech - 4.5
w.virg - 2.5
penn st - 2.5
oregon - 3.5
cinci + 11
s.car- 4.5
ole miss - 3
mich st + 8
g tech -4
c.mich - 3.5
alababa - 5


for these below u can buy a point either way to fit into either system ( dog or fav )


clemson / kentucky
georgia/ tex a & m
mizzou / navy
aub/ nw
s.flor/ n.ill
ark/ e.car
tcu / boise

I personally dont like this system and wont pay any attention to it

[GOLDENGREEK]

tell me if i'm missing something. Wouldn't navy be one of these?

i show mizzou as + 0.5 better

[GOLDENGREEK]

Thats it for me tonight

ill tackle the rest tomorrow

if anyone wants to continue with the remaining ones feel free to do so

also .... Please post and point out any mistakes i made !!!

[mavskidd02]

i show mizzou as + 0.5 better

Nevermind, I see now. Thanks for the work.

[ICD55]

Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.


2007: 11-1 ATS
2008: 12-5 ATS

I have no clue on how to look up this information, but when i go to the following link, it doesn't seem like there are any teams in the top 60 with a SOS less than 60. What am I doing wrong?

USATODAY.com

[GOLDENGREEK]

Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year are 23-12 ats, including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year

** THOSE RECORDS ABOVE ARE PRIOR TO LAST YEARS RESULTS

2008: 5-4 ATS





.

UTAH + 3.5
KENTUCKY + 7
NEBRASKA + 1.5
FL ST + 2.5
LSU + 2.5
UCONN + 4.5
IOWA + 4
TEXAS + 5





including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year

** WHAT DO THEY MEAN BY LAST YR ? THE YEAR PRIOR ? OR 8 WINS OR LESS THIS YEAR ??



IF ITS THIS PAST YEAR.. THEN:

UTAH + 3.5
KENTUCKY + 7
NEBRASKA + 1.5
UCONN + 4.5




.

[GOLDENGREEK]

bowls systems:

sys #1 - play on dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 46-19 ats l9 yrs.

here they are as of today, this can change if lines move...

Bc +9
kenty +7.5
a+m +7
temple +4
navy +6.5
af +4.5
stan +8
tenn +4.5



sys #2 - play against favs that are 3-0 su,ats l3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ats






sys #3 - play against pre-new years day favs who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 17-2 ats




sys #4 - play against teams (not dog of 6 >pts), seeking revenge for su loss of 24+ pts in last match-up and not off win 10



sys #5 - play on favs of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off su win scoring 46+pts. 14-0 su,ats




sys #6 - play against favs of more than 6pts that won its last bowl gm, and not off 4 favored wins vs opp not off conf rf su win,ats loss. 1-22 ats




sys #7 - from 12/22 on, play against favs of 1.5 to 8.5pts, w/less than 43 days of rest off 3 wins and not an ats loss of 8+pts in last gm vs opp not off shut-out w. 1-20 ats



sys #8 - play against favs w/less than 8 wins, has at least 20+ days of rest, and are off 3 wins. 0-15 ats


play against bowling green




sys # 9 - play on big 10 teams (not fav of 10+pts or dog of 14+ pts), w/less than 43 days of rest vs big 12 opp not off conf rf su,ats win of more than 6pts. 17-1 ats




.

only did system 1 and 8

need help here -- where is frank !!!!




.

[GOLDENGREEK]

Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

1) Favs of 3.5< pts are 16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS


RUTGERS
ORG ST
CAL ???



2) Totals of 63.5> pts are 12-1 OVER (avg score 82 ppg)

NEVADA / SMU
A & M / GEORGIA
BOWLING GREEN / IDAHO
ARK / E.CAR --- SITTING AT 63.5 RIGHT NOW - CHECK PRIOR TO GAME


TROY/ C. MICH SITING AT 63 - CHECK B4 GAME





Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

1) DD dogs are 16-3 ATS L19

BOSTON COLLEGE IS THE ONLY ONE CLOSE AT +9






Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:

1) Favs are 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS L11 in LOWER TIER Bowl games


South Florida
Central Michigan
South Carolina
Arkansas



2) MAC teams are 1-5 ATS L7

PLAY AGAINST:

TEMPLE
OHIO U
BOWLING GREEN
C. MICH
N.ILL

plays posted above

[GOLDENGREEK]

Conference Bowl Records as Underdogs: 2000 through 2008 Seasons
Conference W L P Pct
Pac-10 14 4 0 77.78%
ACC 22 8 1 75.76%
SEC 23 13 1 63.89%
WAC 9 6 0 60.00%

Conference Bowl Records as Favorites: 2000 through 2008 Seasons
Conference W L P Pct
Big Ten 4 15 0 21.05%
WAC 6 10 0 37.50%
Big East 8 13 0 38.10%

[GOLDENGREEK]

LIST OF BETTER RUSHING TEAMS

DOG OR FAV


The number after each team is the rushing advantage yards per carry for that team over their opponent.

Fresno +0.19
UCF +1.37
MTSU +0.13
Oregon State +0.10
BYU/Utah even
Cal +0.43
Nevada +4.33
Ohio +0.05
Pitt +1.26
USC +1.03
Clemson +0.77
Georgia +0.83
Temple +1.22
Wisconsin +1.48
Idaho +2.08
Arizona +0.03
Air Force +0.83
Oklahoma +0.30
Missouri +0.37 (no, Navy isn't the running dogs for once)
Iowa State +0.36
Virginia Tech +0.11
Auburn +2.13
West Virginia +1.75
Penn St. +1.22
Oregon +0.11
Florida +0.87
Northern Illinois +0.19
UCONN +0.27
Ole Miss +0.17
Arkansas +0.02
Michigan St. +0.46
TCU +1.22
Iowa +0.12 (this is a pretty strong stat for Iowa considering GT is primarily a running team)
CMU +0.52
Alabama +0.33

[ccsasco]

Which system

Dec 19 Rutgers -2.5
Dec 19 Wyoming +12
Dec 22 Oregon State -2
Dec 23 California -3
Dec 24 Nevada -14
Dec 29 Miami-FL -3
Dec 31 Missouri -6.5
Dec 31 Air Force +5
Jan 1 Oregon -3.5
Jan 1 LSU +3
Jan 2 Arkansas -8
Jan 4 TCU -7
Jan 6 Central Michigan -4

WHICH SYSTEM DO THESE ATTACH TO?