BOWL SYSTEMS THAT KICKED ASS THE LAST FEW YRS(33-14 and 23-9 IN '07 / 29-12 IN '08)

[GOLDENGREEK]

** CAUTION / DISCLAIMER ** :

SYSTEMS CHANGE EACH AND EVERY YEAR

VEGAS IS VERY AWARE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND AJUSTS ACCORDINGLY

USE THIS ONLY AS A TOOL TO OUR OWN HANDICAPPING - NOT A BIBLE

LAST YEARS RESULTS DO NOT GUARENTEE THE SAME RESULTS THIS YEAR !!!


*** PLEASE LOOK THESE OVER AND DOUBLE CHECK !!!!
IF I HAVE MADE A MISTAKE ( MOST LIKELY ) PLEASE POINT IT OUT !!!!!!



I WILL START BY POSTING THE SYSTEMS WITH THE RECORD FOR THOSE SYTEMS IN THE PREVIOUS TWO YEARS

THEN I WILL FILL IN WHICH TEAMS FIT THE CRITERIA THIS YEAR

HOPEFULLY I WILL FINISH IT ALL BY THE END OF THE DAY

** PLEASE DO NOT POST IN THIS THREAD FOR A FEW MINUTES SO THAT ALL THE SYSTEMS ARE POSTED IN ORDER - THEN FEEL FREE TO HELP OUT/ FILL IN THE SYTEMS OR DISCUSS

Thanks

[GOLDENGREEK]

Moneyline / Rankings etc.. System

2007: 33-14 ATS
2008: 29-12 ATS




BROKEN DOWN BY SYSTEM:


2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

THIS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE BUNCH

2007: 2-3 ATS
2008: 2-5 ATS




3 Units and 5 Units
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:

2007: 19-7 ATS
2008: 12- 3 ATS



5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units

2007: 10-2
2008: 8-1 OR 8-2




Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

2007: 3-2 ATS
2008: 5-3 ATS




Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams

2007: 3-0 ATS
2008: 1-1 ATS



A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:

2007: 6-0 ATS
2008: 2-0 ATS



A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team

2007: 1-1 ATS
2008: 2-0 ATS




Teams that hit in more than one system without opposition hit a high percentage last year


2008: 6-2 ATS






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[GOLDENGREEK]

RUNNING DOG SYSTEM

STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. ( 2007 ) We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams OVERALL in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. [B]In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS[/B]. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog.



2007: 10-4 ATS
2008: 9-5 ATS




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[GOLDENGREEK]

BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS


One of the simplest & most successful bowl systems around, is to go against the
team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Let's see how this
simple & uncomplicated trend has fared over the last 34 bowl campaigns.

RESULT: 24-9-1: 70% VS SPREAD

YEAR BOWL FOE OF HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6½ WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3½ Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6½ WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7½ WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11½ WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2½ WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4½ WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2½ Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6½ WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15½ WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7½ Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3½ Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6½ Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13½ WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8½ WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5½ WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER
2008 OKLAHOMA 14 - Florida ( Tebow ) 13 - 5 1/21 LOSER


RESULT: 24-9-1: 70% VS SPREAD

[GOLDENGREEK]

Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year are 23-12 ats, including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year

** THOSE RECORDS ABOVE ARE PRIOR TO LAST YEARS RESULTS

2008: 5-4 ATS







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[GOLDENGREEK]

Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.


2007: 11-1 ATS
2008: 12-5 ATS

[GOLDENGREEK]

DOGS GETTING 8 OR MORE AND FAVS GIVING 6 OR LESS


2003-04 Season
Dogs of 7 or better(meaning +8......) went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better(meaning -6,-5.5.....) went 9-6 ATS 60%
For a total of 16-9 ATS 64% winners

2004-05 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-2 ATS 78%
Favs of 6.5 or beter went 10-7 59%
For a total of 17-9 ATS 64% winners

2005-06 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 13-1 ATS 93%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 7-5 ATS 58%
For a total of 20-6 ATS 77% winners

2006-07 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 9-5 ATS 64%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 8-11 ATS 42%
For a total of 17-16 ATS 52% winners

2007-08 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 15-8 ATS 65%
For a total of 23-11 ATS 68% winners

2008-09 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went
Favs of 6.5 or better went


*Includes buying .5 hook either way so -7 can be +7.5 or -6.5



I HAVE TO RESEARCH LAST YEARS RESULTS




.

[GOLDENGREEK]

*** THE FOLLWING FEW POSTS ARE NEW BOWL SYSTEMS I FOUND ***

I HAVENT USED THEM IN THE PAST AND I DONT KNOW THE ACCURACY OF THE ATS RECORDS:





Conference Specific:

ACC-

1) The ACC is 17-1 SU vs opp who allows 28.5>pts/gm on season

2) The ACC is 25-10 SU as fav/dog 6
3) The ACC is 1-6 SU,ATS as favs vs opp off SU fav loss

Big East-

1) The Big East is 28-7 SU vs opp who allows 23>pts/gm

2) The Big East is 4-11 ATS as dogs 6>

Big 10-

1) The Big 10 is 17-4 SU, 13-8 ATS vs opp who allow 28>pts/gm

2) The Big 10 is 1-6 ATS favs 2>pts vs opp off BB su,ats W

Big 12-

1) The Big 12 is 33-7 SU, 27-13 ATS vs opp who allow 25>pts/gm

2) The Big 12 is 12-3 ATS as dogs 3>pts vs opp off BB Wins

3) The Big 12 is 4-17 ATS as favs off ATS loss

Pac 10-

1) The Pac 10 is 14-1 ATS as DOGS off su,ats Loss

2) The Pac 10 is 16-4 L17 gms as dogs

3) The Pac 10 is 4-13 ATS as favs 6>pts

4) The Pac 10 is on a run of 48-18 ATS L63 bowl games

5) Pac 10 dogs vs opp off DD win that scored 30>pts in that win are 16-1 ATS

SEC

1) The SEC is 29-5 SU vs opp who allow 27>pts/gm

2) The SEC is 16-3 ATS as dogs 10
3) The SEC is 17-6 SU, 19-4 ATS, 7-27 UNDER L18 bowls as DOGS

4) SEC favs w/ win % of .750< are 8-17 ATS

MAC

1) The MAC is 13-6 ATS off Win

2) The MAC is 11-7 ATS as dogs 7>pts

CUSA

1) The CUSA is 8-2 ATS vs opp off su,ats Loss

2) The CUSA is 3-14 ATS off DD W vs opp off Win

3) The CUSA is 24-4 SU, 19-9 ATS as FAVS in L28 bowl gms

MWC-

1) The MWC is 20-12 ATS L32 bowls

Independants

1) 11-1 SU,10-2 ATS L12 bowls as FAVS, 2-10 SU,3-9 ATS L12 as DOGS

WAC

1) The WAC is 14-3 ATS as dogs 4>pts off BB Wins

2) The Wac is 0-8 ATS as neutral site FAVS

3) The Wac is 2-9 ATS as favs if allowed 35>pts last gm

4) The Wac is 19-11 OVER , 11-19 ATS L30 Bowl gms

[GOLDENGREEK]

Team Specific:

Boston College- 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS L12

Utah- 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS L7 / 3-7 UNDER L10

Miami- 8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS L12

Wake Forest- 5-1 SU,ATS L6

Fresno St- Dog is 9-2 SU, 10-1 ATS in Frenso bowls

Georgia- 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS

ND- 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS L10

Louisville- 3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS L9

WV- 5-8 SU, 4-9 ATS L13 / 9-0 OVER L9

N.Mexico- 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS L6

Purdue- 2-6 SU, 1-6-1 ATS L8

K.State- 1-6 ATS L7

Oregon- Dog is 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS L10

UCLA- 3-8 SU L11

Alabama- 2-6 ATS L8

Michigan- 9-1 OVER L10

Texas- 7-3 OVER L10

Florida- 7-3 OVER L10

California- 7-0 OVER L7

G.Tech- 6-1 OVER L7

Arizona 0-5 UNDER L5

Ariz St.- 2-7 UNDER L9

Oklahoma- 3-9 UNDER L12

Auburn 0-7 UNDER L7

Penn St- 1-8 UNDER L9

[GOLDENGREEK]

BOWLS SYSTEMS:

Sys #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 46-19 ATS L9 yrs.

Here they are as of today, this can change if lines move...

BC +9
Kenty +7.5
A+M +7
Temple +4
Navy +6.5
AF +4.5
Stan +8
Tenn +4.5



Sys #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ATS


Sys #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 17-2 ATS


Sys #4 - Play Against teams (not dog of 6 >pts), seeking revenge for SU loss of 24+ pts in last match-up and not off Win 10

Sys #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 14-0 SU,ATS


Sys #6 - Play Against FAVS of more than 6pts that won its last bowl gm, and not off 4 favored Wins vs opp not off conf RF SU win,ats Loss. 1-22 ATS


Sys #7 - From 12/22 on, Play Against FAVS of 1.5 to 8.5pts, w/less than 43 days of rest off 3 wins and not an ATS loss of 8+pts in last gm vs opp not off shut-out W. 1-20 ATS


Sys #8 - Play Against FAVS w/less than 8 wins, has at least 20+ days of rest, and are off 3 wins. 0-15 ATS


Sys # 9 - Play On Big 10 teams (not fav of 10+pts or dog of 14+ pts), w/less than 43 days of rest vs Big 12 opp not off conf RF su,ats Win of more than 6pts. 17-1 ATS


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[GOLDENGREEK]

Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

1) Favs of 3.5< pts are 16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS

2) Totals of 63.5> pts are 12-1 OVER (avg score 82 ppg)




Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

1) DD dogs are 16-3 ATS L19



Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:

1) Favs are 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS L11 in LOWER TIER Bowl games

2) MAC teams are 1-5 ATS L7

[GOLDENGREEK]

Ok..im done

post away

ill be back later to fill out which teams fit each system

if any of you guys wanna do it .. Have at it

if any of you have bowl systems... Please post them


thank u !!

[NoCashMcgraff]

not that it matters...but Bradford won the Heisman last year, not Tebow..and fading Oklahoma would have been a winner last year...the list has it marked as a loser because it was fading the gators but Tebow did not win the heisman last year..

[GOLDENGREEK]

not that it matters...but Bradford won the Heisman last year, not Tebow..and fading Oklahoma would have been a winner last year...the list has it marked as a loser because it was fading the gators but Tebow did not win the heisman last year..

Thank u !!

Better news for us

[ogarza]

not that it matters...but Bradford won the Heisman last year, not Tebow..and fading Oklahoma would have been a winner last year...the list has it marked as a loser because it was fading the gators but Tebow did not win the heisman last year..

Its actually posted correctly according the score posted, the problem is the score on the list up above is wrong...i believe gators won 24-14 and covered...up above it has Oklahoma winning 14-13 which is obviously wrong