Indian Cowboy Plays

[GOLDENGREEK]

March 12 Top Play:

We will begin posting each matchup and game much like we did for college football in each particular thread of the west region, the east region, so on and so forth to enable people to have greater insight into the games. These matchups will go up tonight as I'll start my first thoughts and then others will follow with as much insight into the games as possible.

As a side note, you might want to take a look at the Mavs today as they are going for the nba season record I believe with 18 straight wins and currently possess the most double-digit runs in the league right now. I think the Warriors lay down a bit especially depending on Baron's status. Baron wanted to come back late in the Warriors game yesterday but Nelson said, the game was out of reach so he kept him out, so he might be itching to do very well today, so I laid off.

However, I'm on the Raptors today catching points:

Toronto Raptors +5 (bought up 1/2 point) - Please let me know if you see better

TJ Ford and Charlie V. hookup against the former teams in this game. I thought about the Mavs, but I laid off because they are hot and simply b/c not sure about Baron's status as if he plays, I think they get up for the Mavs, after all, they have won this series the last 3 times and Golden State's probably not in a good mood considering that loss.

The Raptors are still ATS darlings at 36-26 ATS on the year, they went on a mini ATS slump b/c of injuries, but now everybody's back including Anthony Parker who is an integral part of this offense although his stats won't show it and the big 7 foot Bargnani who shot over 50% from 3 point land even cashed in on a 4 point play late in the game.

This team is coached by Mercer alma mater Sam Mitchell, who I've had the honor of meeting on alumni day here on campus and I even got out of my med rotation to go see him -lol.

Mitchell is a no nonsense guy and loves to have his kids play hard and I can see Toronto winning this outright which fits into my category of taking underdogs that can win outright as over the long haul it hits 58% to 64% for profit.

Might dab on the money-line a bit here, or I might just raise it up to +5, in fact, that's what I'll do.

The Raptors have a great squad and a lot of depth with:

Bosh (27 yesterday)
TJ Ford (25 Yesterday)
Bargnani (19 yesterday - off the bench)
Parker (11 yesterday)
Dixon (11 yesterday)
Garbajosa (9 yesterday)
Nesterovich (8 yesterday)
Calderon (7 yesterday)

This team is young and they play defense and they are at least 8 deep as they now have Morris Peterson, the once integral part of this team only getting 8-10 minutes which says a lot about the talent level here (Wouldn't blame if he wants a trade soon or next season).

The Bucks are good, but I've been suprised by their lines but it has to be in part due to Redd coming back.

By the way, the Bulls have been playing much better on the road so watch for them to cover and win more games like they did against the Bucks.

The Raptors have missed 5 straight covers, but I think they get the job done today, either falling just short or winning outright.

The Bucks have a tough time finishing ballgames as even Redd agreed and I think that has to do with their depth level as compared to the Raptors who have depth and I'm sure which no team wants to face in Round 1 of the playoffs.

This Bucks team only runs 7 deep while the Raptors run close to 8 to 9 deep and I think that plays a roll especially if the Raptors keep at them in the defensive end.

Close ball game and I'll take the points in hope for an outright win. This is what I'll throw my pennies at today - .

Take care fellas,
IC

Will have thoughts on the tourney one game at a time as they come up.

Checklist:
Did I wager on a good team? Yes.
Does my team have motivation? Yes.
Any Key injuries? No.
Is my team well coached? Yes.

It's a play.
__________________
Indiancowboy

[GOLDENGREEK]

IC: Tuesday's Analysis of All NIT Games

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Fellas, here is my analysis of all the games for Tuesday, please post your appropriate thoughts here on the games as I'd love to hear them as well and I'm sure others would appreciate as many opinions. I would completely understand why you would like Famu by the way, so please provide analysis why as well.

I'm going to have the ambitious goal of capping each game and providing some insight so that I can keep up with some teams and go on my typical tourney run which I have hit between 58%-64% for 4 years running as this is #5. Also, this is to help anyone else out there as I'll provide what I can based on my spreadsheet.

It's all about having fun and picking some weak spreads in the long haul and after the tourney, to have had a ton of fun and made some green as well. Here goes: At the end of the anlalysis I will post my play or no play on the game.

I will be making more than 1 wager a day in the tournament as this is when the weakest lines are and it's in my best interest to play more games to take advantage of such lines.

NCAA Add-On Game:

Niagara vs. FamU


This pits top 160 Niagara who quickly made the climb up the rankings as I remember when this team was in the top 225 just a month ago and now quickly moved up a 100 slots.

This team was one of the hottest teams in the country entering this game and face a Florida A&M Squad who is a top 225 team who is exactly where Niagara was a month ago oddly.

First and foremost, Florida A&M will not win this game in my opinion. I have them never defeating a top 200 team as they are 0-6 against top 200 teams on the road and on top of that just 6-3 against 200-300 ranked teams.

Furthermore [remember Niagara is top 150], this team played in one of the weakest conferences in the nation and have lost to teams such as Deleware State by 11 who is a top 175 team, lost to NCAT&T by 8 who is a top 275 team and even Norfolk by double-digits who is a 300 and above team. Thus, this team's road ranking is a mere top 270 team.

So, what you have is a top 270 team facing a top 150 team at home and I have a decent feeling that Niagara wins this game by the 10-12 point range and carries this spread. After all, Niagara was one of the hottest teams coming in the league and beat a similar Rider, Canisius and Manhattan team all by the same spread.

Niagara -8.5 will be my first play of the Tournament. It's tough to lay the points, but I think Niagara's strong play warrants it as this team took care of Loyola Maryland and Rider handily on neutral footing and they can take care of business here.

First tournament play: Niagara -8.5


Toledo vs. FSU (-11)/(+11)

I have to be honest, I was a bit suprised at the onset of this line. I thought it would be around +8/-8 or so, but I'll take it.

FSU is a great team and I can understand if some feel that they should have been in the tournament as they did beat Florida at home including some other wins, although I would point to their road lapse, but still Al Thornton and company are a very good team.

A buddy of mine went to high school with him and says he's a very nice guy and a humble guy and he came back this year to play in the dance and he didn't get that opportunity and you can see the tears that he had when they went down to UNC.

Nonetheless, Toledo is a good team.

I have Florida State as a top 40 team and Toledo as a top 100 team.

Toledo lost to a good Miami of Ohio team who is one of my new favorites to wager on, who I will be laying change on in the tourney by the way, but we'll get to that day when it comes, but on the road Toledo is 0-4 against top 100teams.

The question becomes how does Toledo do against the bigger teams on the road and how does FSU do against teams that are a bit weaker at home.

I look for this game to be similar to Missouri State when this team lost by 13 on the road and Missouri State is a top 40 team but that was their first game of the season.

Then, I look at this team's contest against Drexel and Vandy in which they lost by 5 and 5 and even lost to Kansas by 10 on neutral footing not to mention losing to Kent by 4 on the road.

Can you really blame here for taking Toledo out of the Mac here at +11?

Pick: Toledo +11


Utah State vs. Michigan (+8/-8)

Michigan is a top 60 team facing off against top 80 team in Utah State.

The Question becomes how does Utah State face off against a top 60 team on the road and how does Michigan handle a top 80 team at home.

For one thing Utah State lost by just 2 to New Mexico State who is a top 75 team, but at the same time, they lost to La Tech by 13 who is a top 200 team.

However, this team did beat a good oral roberts team on the road but lost by 8 to Hawaii.

I'll stop right here. To me, this game is tough to call considering that I hate to lay 8 points to a team that can stand close but could lose down the stretch as taking Niagara as a favorite is one thing at home and Toledo at +11 on the road, but then again, taking Utah State +8 on the road is a different story although I do think Michigan covers but will be a no play for me.

After all, Michigan State by 11 and Purdue by double-digits but only beat the Gophers by 2 and the Gophers are a top 250 and horrible. Don't like this gam for value.

Pick: None

Deleware State vs. West Virginia (+18.5/-18.5)

West Virginia got the snub for a team that is in the top 50, but then again, that's what you get when you don't do as well as you should have in the conference tourney and having to get smaller conference champs a chance to play in the dance.

The question is I have Deleware State as a top 175 team. So what you have is a top 175 team on the road against a top 50 team that is not very happy about getting the snub job - but 18.5 points?

Deleware's 20+ wins come against teams that are all outside of the top 200, so I don't see Deleware winning this by any means - now, there is a no brainer, lol.

I think the spread comes from the fact they played Pitt, another Big East and lost by 17, hence the 18 or 18.5 spread.

The total is set correctly in the 116's, so no play on the total yet either, after all, that Pitt game totaled 117 and I swear the oddsmakers are following the motto of that game, a 50-67 type of ballgame and result.

This team did lose by 12 to Wisconsin on the road, 17 to Marquette on the road, 22 to Purdue, 27 to Michigan and by just 3 against Baylor before running the tables on their own respective conference.

West Virginia beat a similar Canisius team by 20+ but I can see Deleware State hanging tough to like up in Wisconsin, so I don't see a play here.

Pick: None

Mississippi Valley State vs. Mississippi State (+23/-23)

Yea for the state of Mississippi! I'm sure all the TV's there will be tuned to this thriller.

I got the Bulldogs as a top 50 team playing a top 250 team in the Valley.

How has the Valley done on the road against better teams?

Well, they 23 to Ole Miss which is where this line originates I think, lost by 33 to Creighton, 23 to top 20 Kentucky, 24 to USC, 34 to LSU but just 1 point oddly to Wright State on neutral footing.

Mississippi State beat Texas A&MCC - who is the tourney by the way by 24, South Alabama by 38, McNeese State by 26 but Alabama State who is a top 250 team by just 15.

Don't like this game as I can't wager on the Valley but hate laying the points.

Pick: None

NC State vs. Drexel (+5.5/-5.5)

I feel so bad for both of these teams. Both teams played so well and NC State rolls into the championship and played the hearts out against UNC and Drexel gets slighted despite winning some big games on the road.

However, getting NC State with points is awfully nice here and of course, this spread is the treacherous 5.5, which is awlays a pain in the buttocks to cover.

I got both of these teams as top 70 teams personally and I think they both have incentive to be a bit irritated and not in a good mood.

It's seems to me the points are the way to go here as Drexel is 0-3 against top 100 teams at home.

Personally, I think NC State could win outright, but then again, Drexel won outright at Creighton a top 40 team.

However, this team did lose to Hofstra and ODU, but also beat Syracuse, Villanova and Temple on the road.

I think NC State covers this game as Drexel has shown nothing to me at home as they are a better road team, but I can't justify that into picking them and NC State is typically a poor road team this year as they got blown out by Maryland, Florida State and UNC all by 20+ on the road.

Pick: None

Alabama vs. Umass (+6.5/-6.5)

My Crimson Tide are struggling badly.

They drew Kentucky in the first round of the tourney and of course got spanked by Miss State on the road.

Umass is high powered when it comes to the offensive end and they feel a bit slighted too but this team can flat out score at home where as Bama struggles to score on the road.

In fact, take a look at my team's road scores of late:

67 - Kentucky, 67 - Miss State, 66- Tennessese, 67 - Florida and 69 at Ole Miss.

See a pattern, lol.

Umass dropped a 102 on La Salle alone but I think they score in the mid 70's in this game much like they did to Rhode Island scoring 77 and I think Bama scores in the high 60's. I can see this game going under/over both ways and the line is moving down.

I have a lean on Umass but Godfried has a way of getting his boys ready at times just like on the road at LSU when they won outright after beating them at home, so I don't like any particular play on this game.

Pick: None

Marist vs. Oklahoma State (+10/-10)

You know that I love underdogs and in particular double-digit underdogs.

Marist is a top 125 team and they face Oklahoma State who is a 2 seed and 20-2 at home on top of that and who has a top 70 ranking.

Oklahoma State did beat Kansas State and win by double-digits, but they did lose to Missouri by 11 who is a top 80 team, beat Iowa State by 12 who is a top 120 team and Marist lost top 125 Ohio by 16 earlier this year and lost to similar ranked Wright State by 10 on the road.

To be honest, I can see this game ending in the 8-12 mark and I lean on the points, but I can't make a play on it personally.

Pick: None


After all that:

My First 2 Tourney Picks:

Toledo +11 and Niagara -8.5 for Tuesday

Being picky is not always a bad thing - it's better to have a good play missed than making a bad play. .

[GOLDENGREEK]

Had a chance to look over my notes fellas [posted as well] and I went with Fresno State as a conclusion as my play of enjoyment of the day.

Fresno State +10.5 (1 unit)

I think there is an of-chance that Fresno State wins this game outright - after all, this is a #5 versus a #4 seed. Heck, even in the other games such as the Vermont and Oklahoma State with a #7 and #2 seed it only warrants a 12 point spread and with a 1 seed differential, I don't think this game warrants a 10.5 spread.

This reminds me of when many people say smaller conferences can't stack up to the bigger conferences much like Marist vs. Oklahoma State and they can and do. Georgia shouldn't be laying this many points I think personally given that they lost their last 4 out of 6 ballgames albeit to good competition.

However, Fresno State does have the capacity to hit the road and win ballgames outright like they did to Utah State and New Mexico State - two teams that are both in the top 70. This is roughly a 20-30 point power ranking differential and I think Fresno State hangs tough as they do have some good talent and play solid defense.

Georgia is still without Mike Mercer of course and that hurts their depth a bit and I think they win this game, but this is a good to many points to pass up. Both of these teams are the Bulldogs but I'll take the Bulldog that is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-0 ATS as a road underdog rather than my home state UGA Bulldogs that are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games and 1-8 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of greater than 60%.

There's my play for tonight's enjoyment fellas.







East Tennessee State vs. Clemson

Clemson is in the top 40 in the pr rankings and East Tennessee State is in the top 150. The spread here is +17.5/-17.5.

The question is can ESTU hang with a top 40 team on the road. Well, they played Auburn and lost by 8 on the road who is a top 100 team, but lost to Vandy by 42 on the road who is a top 50 team and then really haven't played anyone of strength after that. I've had a chance to see ETSU play when they came here to Mercer and they have a nice game, but the question is can they hang against Clemson who probably feels that they should have closed the season much better than they did. Clemson only beat Georgia State by 10 at home, which is a indicator right there and the Panthers are a 250 team, beat Wofford by just 12 another 250 team, but beat Western Carolina by 43 and destroyed a good team in App State.

Don't have a lean on this game.

South Alabma vs. Syracuse -/+13

From the onset, I think this is a dangerous game b/c Syracuse is a pissed off team, but I wonder if they will sell the place out for this game. Regardless, I think Coach B and company are pissed for not getting into the tournament and they could very well make a statement today. Syracuse is a top 60 team in my book and South Alabama is a top 140 team. Sure, the points look nice but I know South Alabama and this team has a tendency to collapse or not play well on the road. They are 0-3 against top 100 teams and closed the year losing 4 straight. This team lost by 10 to Fresno State, 11 to Auburn and by nearly 40 to Mississippi State. I think Syracuse takes it to this team personally.

Lean on Syracuse

Next up: Fresno vs. Georgia

Lot of points here is the first thought right off the bat. Georgia is still without MM (Mike Mercer) but still beat Auburn only fall prey to the Gators as everyone did in the SEC tourney. I have Georgia as a top 60 squad and Fresno State as a top 90 squad, so roughly a 30 point differential. Does home court and 30 point differential account for a double-digit spread. That's the call to make. Fresno State is 2-1 on the road against 50-100 ranked teams outright which is good to know and did beat Utah State and New Mexico State outright on the road. Also, this team lost to Stanford by just 2 at home and beat Creighton at home as well. Considering this team finished the season strong winning their last 6 before the tourney and UGA did not finish the season strong - I lean on the 10.5 here.

Lean: Fresno State +10.5


Vermont vs. Kansas State -/+12

Kansas State I have is a top 50 team and they face off against who is a top 100 team. No doubt Kansas State should be a little irritated after not getting in and I expect them to play well. However, Vermont is a top 100 team and the points are nice. The question is can Vermont step up against the big teams on the road. Vermont is actually 13-3 on the road and is a top 50 team in the nation on the road which a lot of people don't know. In the beginning of the season Vermont lost on the road by 18, but beat top 40 Boston college, lost to Michigan State by 20 but they've also lost to Harvard at home outright as well. Kansas State only beat William and Mary by 10 at home who is a top 200 team, Baylor by 9 who is a top 100 team and also beat Nebraska by 16. It's hard for me to get a read on this game as I can see a difference of 6 to 15 points and I'll just lay off.

Lean: None

Appalachian State vs. Ole Miss +/-7

I have App State as a top 60 team and Ole Miss as a top 60 team. I saw a post earlier on this thread, not sure of who the cat was that posted, but he is right in that both these temas are roughly the same in relation to pr standings. In fact, I have app state as a few spots higher. Knowing that they weren't going dancing, I think App State is happy to be in this situation in the NIT as that is still a big deal for this program and a step up. This team has won 25 games for a reason, but I the line of 7 here as I think you pick this game if App State can win outright or if not, you lay off as free throws in the end can do wonders to the spread in this game for the worse. This team did beat Davidson on the road and that says a lot, beat Virginia and Vandy. I think if you ride this game, either you choose this to win outright or not - much like NC state, but it's hard for me to go against a team handed it to lsu and beat tennessee and uga at home by a greater margin - also beating auburn on the road by a better magin.

Lean: none

Providence vs. Bradley -/+6

This is a cool Big East vs. MVC matchup and I personally am a fan of the Braves and most of the MVC teams. Bradley is a top 60 team and Providence is a top 90. So, a 30 spot differential and the road factor. Providence is 2-7 on the road including that loss to St. Johns on the road who is a top 120 team and this team did lose by 13 to west virginia however losing to notre dame and pittsburgh by 6 and 3 raises eyebrows on the road. Bradley drew southern illinois in the tourney and they fell just short, but overall, they are a good team, as they esaily beat Indiana State, illinois state all by double-digits and even beat Depaul in the first game of the season, a similar team to providence by 20. I don't think Providence hangs tough personally and although i hate laying the 6 points but I think Bradley is the way to go here.

Lean: Bradley

Hofstra/Depaul -/+10.5

Before even looking into this I like Hofstra as that is an awful lot of points to give a good team here. Depaul is a top 70 while Hofstra is a top 90 team. Fellas, I'm thinking 20 spots of power ranking and the road factor and wondering if that is worth double-digits here. Seems a bit too high for sure. Hofstra has 9 road wins and did beat St. Johns and Drexel on the road but lost by 25 to Syracuse on the road another Big East team. Depaul beat St. Johns at home by 8 and heck, even beat Kansas. But, I tell you what, Hofstra has done well on the road this year and can put up their fair share of points and for that, I lean on them.

Lean: Hofstra

San Deigo State vs. Missouri State -/+7.5

Missouri State is a top 40 team where as San Diego State is a top 75 team. 35 spots roughly and the road factor but this team lost by a greater margin to Wyoming a top 100 team and BYU a top 50 team and was blown out by them, they also lost to Western Michigan by double-digits and they are a top 150 team. But, they are a decent team b/c they beat unlv and byu at home. What catches me in this game is the possible over b/c Missouri State can put up points at home such as 80+ against Bradley or even 90+ against Drake. The total is set at 139 and was opened up at 138. The question now is can San Diego State score in the 70's as well and I think they can and I think this game is like the utah game 74-68 and I think it does. There are also many trends that go in favor of this as well.

Lean: Over - will come back to this.

Air Force vs. Austin Peay +/-14

This line is coming down but wondeirng if this is warranted. Air Force has played horrible but they could show up for this game. This team has turned the worst of late in dropping rankings going from top 15 in the pr rankings down to top 50. They face Austin Peay who is a top 150 team - so a 100 spots and on the road. Howeve for a low-scoring game and getting 14 points plus is very appealing. But, this team lost by 45 to Illinios and 25 to Memphis and 17 to Akron. This game eerily reminds me of that Akron game when this team failed to cover as I think they are jus so young and I have a wierd feeling about this game. I just don't want to mess with an Air Force game nor a Austin Peay game and definitely not one that involves both.

Lean: None

[GOLDENGREEK]

March 15th Top Play

Maryland vs. Davidson Under 155 (Bodog, 5dimes and sportsinteraction)

This is an early game so take note of it - 12:20pm.

The line is slowly starting to trickle down but I like this for several reasons. One, I've seen Davidson play before and having kept up with the coach for the past few years, he preaches defense, defense and more defense.

Guess who else preaches the same thing?

Ol' Gary of Maryland as well.

Davidson has sizeable height in this game and that is what has made them so effective as this team comes into the tourament having won 10 straight ballgames.

They didn't win this based on their offense necessarily, but definitely their defense.

Davidson is giving up 68.3 points per game while Maryland is coughing up 67.6 points per game.

However, the total is set at 155 - why? Well, it's mainly because both of these teams are known to score their fair share of points. However, with 2 defensive squads going at it, the first game jitters in place, in particular for Davidson and Maryland having the tendency to start off slow, I like the under here.

Keep in mind that Maryland only put up 62 points against Miaim of Florida as that game totaled at 129 despite a 147.5 set total and Davidson's championship game against Charleston totaled at 137 despite a 143 set total.

I might have more plays later today, but to start off, I like the under here as it takes a lot for both teams to come out and put up this many points in the first round.

If the Winner scores 80 and the loser scores 75, more power to them as I'll be glad to take a W, but that's what it's going to take to beat me.

Checklist:

Is Davidson a good defensive team? Yes.
Is Maryland a good defensive team? Yes.
Does the underdog have the edge in Rebounding, Points and Turnovers? Yes.
[The reason for the above qualification is that the underdog tends to start off tight, especially if they are from a non-power conference].
Trends favoring the under? Yes.

Davidson has played the under the last 6 times they have faced an ACC Team and the under is 5-1-1 when they are an underdog.

The Terps have gone under the last 6 of 7 times when they are favored, the last 4 times off of a loss and the last 4 of 5 times when they are favored in the NCAA Tourney.

I'll take the low in the high number.

[GOLDENGREEK]

love the Madness fellas but I do wish the WNBA would start soon. lol. I'll have previews written up about all the teams to give you some idea of what to expect.

Last 2 days have been very kind to me with Fresno State pulling through in the last second and the the Maryland/Davidson under which I was fortunate to hit as Davidson ran out of gas and both teams were bound to play defense at some point.

I know there are a ton of college games out there fellas, but a NBA game caught me eye so that is what I'll be riding today.

Golden State Warriors -7 [1 Unit] Bodog, WSEX, Sportsinteraction

The Warriors have now won 4 of their last 5 ballgames including that big win over Dallas.

Does this mean they have a big let down spot? I don't think so.

Here's why.

Remember that bad loss Golden State took when Baron Davis was not able to play at hands of the Twolves losing 121-93 on Feb 7th.

I do. I thought to myself, may if Bardon Davis came back by the time these two hook up again, it will get ugly.

Now, Davis is back, granted he only played roughly 30 minutes out of the 48 minutes last time out, but I expect him to get that same amount of time today as I think the Warriors will this game out of reach by the third quarter.

My favorite player on this team is actually Montae Ellis b/c I think he is the best 6th man in the league as he is able to do so many things and has been called to do a lot throughout this year.

The Warriors have now won 4 straight ballgames including the 17 point win over the Warriors, the tough loss to Portland which was only b/c Baron did not play, beating the Clippers, Denver and at Detroit when Baron did play.

With Davis, Richardson, Harrington, Jackson, Ellis and Biedrins this team is going to be headache for any team and in particular for the Timberwolves given the Twolves are horrible on the road and can't score.

In fac, the Twolves haven't won a road game straight up since January 27th against the Clippers.

The Timberwolves are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 ballgames following a loss. The Warriors have covered their last 5 of 6 on the other hand and the favorite as well as the home team in this series is 5-1 ATS.

There you go fellas,

Take care,
IC

[MB17]

Bump.

[GOLDENGREEK]

would have been a loss yesterday--has seattle in the nba

[GOLDENGREEK]

MARCH 18TH TOP PLAY

Portland/Seattle Over 196 (Line should be available everywhere including Bodog, wses, 5dimes, beted, superbook and sportsinteraction to name a few)

2 things that are nice about this game.

Portland coming off a loss and Seattle coming off a loss.

Portland is even better coming off a road loss to the Lakers in what was a tight ball game and they play a Seattle team that comes off a close loss to Golden State which I pointed this out earlier yesterday that Golden State is a team on the rise and it's so important to catch teams on their way up before books start catching on.

Such as the recent Golden State value with Baron Davis and the fade on the Clippers earlier this season although the Clippers will be of value now as they starting to play better. I would have been all over the Clippers if the line was a 7.5, but alas, I would not be so lucky.

These two teams hooked up before in Seattle and the total was set at 204 for that game and Seattle drilled this team 97-73 (170).

That mean it's going to go under right as the total point value hsa been reduced by 8 to 196, this game? Right? Nah. I don't think so and here is why.

The line that Vegas set this year was right in that it should be 204 b/c that is what I have for this game now but b/c of the bad result or total last game, it gives high value to the line this game.

After all, before that game, the previous 2 have gone over 197.5 and 202.

In fact, this total of 196 is the lowest set in the last 5 times these two teams have played as previous totals have been 20, 197.5, 202, 206 and 201.

I think Portland wins this game and this game gets out of hand in terms of scoring. Portland returns home after a loss and looks for revenge against Seattle at home and Seattle looking to bounce back after the loss to Golden State by just a point.

The Sonics still have Lewis and Allen as they are not injured for this game ofcourse and they are 12-4 in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.

The Trailblazers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss and this looks like a good spot for the over as the over is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings in Portland.

That's what I'm playing for enjoyment today fellas, good luck in whatever you might be playing.

Take care,
IC

[GOLDENGREEK]

Last day i will be posting his plays as he has hit about 50 % since I have been posting. I started posting his plays because he was hitting 64% for 3 months. Not worth it to continue this thread in my opinion
March 19th Top Play:

San Diego State 1st Half +4 (1 unit) (-102 at pinnacle - waiting to see if I can get 4.5. or 5 later - it helps to have canadian friends)

Interesting play here but I like it and the juice is relatively low so I'll ride it.

If San Diego State has any chance in this game, they have to start out strong. I was a little irritated that I didn't catch Purdue first half as that was a golden wager despite for the game, but Florida is a slow starting team and Purdue of course starts fast.

Well, similar situation here in San Diego State today and I'm hoping to get this a little bit larger.

However, I'll start with the 'Cuse on this play.

Syracuse has the potential to blow this game out in the 2nd half, so I will take the first half. I noticed a trend with Syracuse of late that I thought that I would point out:

Last 7 ballgames:

Syracuse was down 1 to South Alabama in the first half (home)
Syracuse was up 2 against Notre Dame in the first half. (away from home)
Syracuse was down by 2 to Uconn in the first half. (neutral)
Syracuse was up by 4 against Nova in the first half (on the road)
Syracuse up by 3 against Georgetown in the first half (home)
Syraucse up by 3 against Uconn in the first half (home)
Syracuse down by 3 to St. Johns in the first half (home)

So, when Syracuse plays on the road of late or away from home, they have been leading, however, when they have played at home, they typically sleep walk a bit it seems in the first half.

Now, San Diego State and they could run out of steam in the 2nd half much like Uconn did against this Syracuse team at Cuse when they lost by 10.

How does San Diego State do on the road in the first half? They do well and I think they get off to a good start and possibly fizzle out in the 2nd or at least I won't be around to wait to see what happens.

San Diego State 1st Half:

San Diego State up by 5 against SMS (away from home)
San Diego State against Colorado State down by 1 (neutral site)
San Diego State at Utah down 13 (away from home)
San Diego State @ New Meixco tied (away from home)

I just think the underdog in the beginnig of the first half leads and then Syracuse wakes up as they typically do in the 2nd half.

A bit of gut and and a bit of analysis in this play, so we'll see what happens but I have a feeling State comes out shooting well and takes an early halftime lead and I'll take the few points that come with the play as well.

That's what I have and will play for fun today as this is a hobby purely for enjoyment, good luck fellas -
IC