Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Indian Cowboy Plays

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Indian Cowboy Plays

    New Orleans 1st Quarter -1 (2 Units) (I have them winning by 4 after First Q)

    The NBA is all about revenge - the NBA is all about revenge. However, revenge is only worthwhile when you bet on a teams of equitable talent - in this case, the Blazers versus the Hornets. I told myself that I was going take the Blazers the last time these two met b/c the Hornets are were w/out Chris Paul and consequently got blown out by 15 on the road.

    Now, the Hornets get to host the Trailblazers a bit healthier and this team has been playing very well of late having defeated the Jazz at home - didn't figure that coming did ya, in fact, they beat the Kings which I was on - and after winning 2 games solidly, they should have the confidence to want to come out strong against a team that whooped their behinds and now they will host them.

    Why the first half? Well, the Hornets have x2 revenge going into this game which is nice and the Blazers have played some long games of late including that marathon game at Memphis where it went to OT - over 260 points scored in that game too.

    However, the Hornets really had a stinging loss back on 11/10 (2 games before in this series) when they went up 38-13 in the first quarter only to end up losing 92-91 as Portland came back to win the game.

    In short, I think the Hornets at home, with double-revenge playing well and I think the Blazers come out a bit flat in part as well. I'll take the Hornets to lead after the first quarter.

    I don't like laying the points as this game could come down to the wire, but I think the 1st quarter is definitely worth a wager here.

    Orlando Magic -1 (2 Units) (I have them winning by 5 after the First) Q

    The Magic have to furious about letting the Hawks come back in their last game after having a huge lead only to have the Hawks come back and somehow win the game. This is a home and home game and you have to think the Magic vividly remember that loss at home - where they don't lose often.

    The Magic showed that they have some serious talent and they respond well on the road as the game against the Cavs shows a lot about their character and I think they just get fired to play the Hawks who are just untrustworthy and they show up to play in a big way - especially in the first quarter.

    The Magic are better than the Hawks and I think the Hawks are in for some serious ass-detailing early on and then they might make their typical 2nd half come back, however, I won't wait around for that and take the wager in the 1st quarter.

    San Diego/Gonzaga Under 71 (2 Units) (I have it at 66)

    Much like the Tennessee/Kentucky game going under in the first half, I have this game going under in the first half as well. When Gonzaga typically plays teams of decent talent of top 150 ranking, the games go under.

    In short - when a decent team goes into Gonzaga, such as a conference team such as San Diego who is a 10-15 point underdog, the only way they have to stay within a ballgame is by playing defense, much like the Vols did and then they will likely collapse in the second half.

    For example there are two ways to look at this - when San Diego goes on the road as a double-digit dog - and when Gonzaga hosts teams as a small teen double-digit favorite.

    Let's look at San Diego first:

    San Diego goes on the road to play Fresno - Total First half as a 11 point dog - 57 points.

    San Diego as a 12 point underdog on the road at Loyola-Chicago - total first half was 59 points and the game goes under (total set in the high 140's)

    Gonzaga as a 15 point favorite over San Francisco at home - the game goes under at 54 points in the first half - total was set at 149 - similar to the game today.

    Gonzaga favored by 17 over Pepperdine - 65 in the first half - Total was set at a huge 169.

    In short, if San Diego has any chance in this game, they have to keep this game close in the first half and I think they stay competitive by playing decent defense and Gonzaga starts off slow as they typically do.

    I like these 3 plays for 2 units a peice and consequently hope for a 2-1 better day.

  • #2
    Already Posted Boss

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by GOLDENGREEK
      Already Posted Boss
      Lets keep his plays in all one thread like i'm going to do on ace ace

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by BettorsChat
        Lets keep his plays in all one thread like i'm going to do on ace ace
        DONE DEAL

        Comment


        • #5
          1-2 Last Night - Did we jinx him?
          "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

          Comment


          • #6
            JANUARY 30TH TOP PLAY

            ELON +9.5
            - Hoping for a 10, but I think this is the best Dog Line

            As always, I think this is an underdog that can hang tough today and quite possibly win outright at home, which correlates into taking it as a play in my book.

            2 Things you have to look at in this game -

            How does Elon do at home and how does Davidson do on the road?

            1) How does Davidson do on the road?

            I'll concede something to you, Davidson is a top 60 team in the nation, yes, top 60 in my book, however, Davidson does not necessarily blow anyone out and in particular on the road.

            Why does Davidson have such a high ranking - it's b/c they are 7-0 against teams that are ranked between 100-200 in the power rankings.

            However, Davidson has yet to beat a top 100 team all year despite several chances - that is neither here or there considering that Elon is a top 300 team - yea, I know 300 - but I'll get to that in a minute.

            Davidson plays tight ball games regardless of who they play -

            They went on the road to play NC Greensboro a top 150 team and won by 3.

            They went on the road to play a top 215 team in in Chattanooga and won by 12.

            They went on the road to play Arizona State a top 240 team and won by 5.

            They went on the road to play Furman a top 215 team and won by 8.

            They went on the road to play Wofford a top 300 team and won by 5 - Bingo.

            They went on the road to play Georgia Southern a top 220 team and won by 9 - but that game was much closer for thsoe that watched it.

            So, the question now becomes can Elon hang tough at home?

            Elon lost by a point to Georgia Southern at home, lost by 10 to Chattanooga at home, lost by 4 to NC Greensboro at home, beat Wofford by 10 at home, lost by 3 to Citadel at home earlier in the year, but considering they were a bit banged up and not playing well, I see that as an outlier fact and they beat Western Carolina on the road by 13.

            Also, Davidson has won this series for the past 8 years - yes, 8. However, just one time has this been series held in Elon during this span and that was back in 05' when Davidson came in as a 5 point road favorite and won 57-68 (11).

            Davidson pounded this team by 25 earlier this year back in December at home and but Elon started that game out slow as it was road contest to gain experience I think more than anything- after all, they hung in 41/41 in the 2nd half and went toe to toe with Davidson which showed signs that this team can hang with Davidson - just need to be in the right surroundings - such as home.

            The final 2 Trends that I liked going into this game:

            Davidson is 1-4-2 ATS when facing a road spread of 7-12 points.

            Elon is 4-1 ATS as a dog of 7-12 points.

            Elon is also 4-1 ATS following a straight up shows which shows they come out stronger the next game.

            I think Elon shows some heart today.

            Let the Elon Phoenix Rise Baby!

            Comment


            • #7
              Very Nice writeup!
              "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

              Comment


              • #8
                how many units?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by MB17
                  how many units?
                  one unit

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Nice write up..Good Luck garth but I'm on Davidson...
                    THE ART OF BEING WISE IS THE ART OF KNOWING WHAT TO OVERLOOK...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by SACPAC
                      Nice write up..Good Luck garth but I'm on Davidson...
                      Not my play, sacpac.. or my writeup. good luck tonight. I don't think I'll play this game.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        JANUARY 31ST TOP PLAY:

                        UL-MONROE +15.5 (Matchbook) = 2 Units

                        This is the first times both these teams have hooked up yet, the line is incredibly jacked in my opinion considering the similar teams they have played, they have yielded same results and the spread despite being at home is just not warranted.

                        In facts, this pits the two division leaders against each other in this game with Western Kentucky at 16-7 ATS (11-11 ATS) (#2 in the East) versus the West Division leader in UL-Monroe who is 13-9 and 10-7-1 ATS.

                        The reason why UL-Monroe is facing such a spread today is because of their horrible road record which sits at 2-9. Yet, early on in the year, they played some tough teams which contributed to those road losses including Iowa State, LSU, SMU, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi - before gearing up for conference play and winning their next 5 ballgames.

                        In fact, this team defeated Middle Tennessee State - a top 170 team on the road earlier this year. So, imagine starting the season 2-6 only to reel off enough wins to now be over .500 on the year - with most of the wins coming against conference opponents.

                        Furthermore, this team showed a lot of character and the fact they are playing better by going on the road to South Alabama and losing by just 7 points and now are getting twice as much of a spread here against Western Kentucky, who albeit is roughly the same as Western Kentucky.

                        You think Western Kentucky is incredible and flat out unstoppalbe against a scrub team such as UL-Monroe - not so fast.

                        Take a look at these teams when they play similar opponents in the last 5 ballgames.

                        Western Kentucky:

                        Beats UL-Lafyette by 10 at home - a top 300 team.
                        Loses to Arkansas LR by 2 on the road - a top 245 team.
                        Beats New Orleans by 3 at home - a top 225 team.
                        Loses to Arkansas State by 1 on the road - a top 225 team.
                        Beats Denver by 10 on the road - a top 330 team.
                        Beats Troy State a top 240 team by 4 at home.

                        UL-Monroe:

                        Beats Arkansas LR at home by 8 a top 245 team.
                        Beats UL-Lafayette by 19 at home - a top 300 team.
                        Beats Arkansas State at home by 8 at home - a top 225 team.
                        Loses to Denver by 10 on the road - a top 330 team.
                        Beats New Orleans at home by 2 - a top 225 team.
                        Beats Troy State a top 240 team by 13 at home.


                        Why do I point all this out? Just to show that these teams have had similar results against conference opponents and that they are within the same class in results against similar opponents.

                        Do I think Western Kentucky is better? Yes. Do I think Western Kentucky wins this game - Yes - 70% likelihood. But for a dog to have a 30% outright chance of winning a ballgame and catching 15.5 points is a big deal imo.

                        In fact, UL-Monroe has not lost by this margin in the last 11 games they have played, which would explain why they have reeled off so many conference wins as they stay close in ballgames and why they are #1 in their side of the conference bracket.

                        You think they won't get up for this game - they sure will. The Hilltoppers come off a win as well so both teams come off wins which I'm glad the Hilltoppers don't come off a loss so to speak.

                        Also, the trends were positive towards the play as well which pushed me over the edge as compared to Missouri - who I think wins outright today with revenge agaisnt Kansas - but then again, that's a short leash compared to 15.5 - conference-game with equal level of play of late.

                        Besides, I have Mizzou's spread around 3 in the sheet and I have this game off by a full 4 points - the same as Tulsa vs. Memphis a while back.

                        Before I forget, the oddsmakers are screwing Western Kentucky over in a major way lately to get them back to .500 when it comes to ATS.

                        Here is why:

                        Western Kentucky started out the season 7-1 ATS - Vegas caught on and since then 4-10 ATS and in particular of late 2-7 ATS.

                        In fact, they are 1-5 ATS at home since their last cover back on 12/22 against South Alabama.

                        I'm telling ya, Vegas is fudging this team over in a big way at home today.

                        UL-Monroe is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 as most of those games were in the Sun-Belt and Western Kentucky as I noted is 1-5 ATS at home of late, 1-4 ATS overall of late and 0-6 ATS following a straight up win.

                        Another key criteria that I look for is free throw shooting and UL-Monroe as a team shoots roughly 72.3% - around the top 50 in the nation which is key in a mid-double-digit spread so they should hang in with respect to the charity stripe.

                        There are no injuries to be reported for either team.

                        This is what I decided to put on my card today based on all the games - best of luck friends.
                        IC
                        __________________

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Thurday

                          FEBRUARY 1ST TOP PLAY:

                          PORTLAND STATE +7 (1.5 Units) (will buy the hook or catch it if rises)

                          Honorable Mention:
                          Georgetown -7.5

                          I like Portland State to win outright or fall within the cover. In my stats, I have Portland State falling short by 3 points but they lost to this Montana team at home by 6 back on December 28th. Now, they get to return the favor.

                          In fact, Montana went into that game as a 4 point underdog only to win outright. Now, they are going to be laying 6+ points to this team in what is a 10.5 point shift for a home court advantage - I think not.

                          Keep in mind that Portland State was up on this team 45-42 at the half only to get outscored 38-29 in the second half.

                          Of late, both teams have played on equal level. However, Portland State I have as a top 175 team and Montana I have as a top 175 team as well - two equal teams that face off with one of the teams as an underdog catching points.

                          Many people didn't think that Portland State has the capacity to hit the road and beat Idaho State a top 150 team and they did winning as a 6.5 underdog.

                          Now, they are getting the same value on the road here against Montana with revenge in mind too. In fact, they jumped on Idaho State early in that ballgame only to have Idaho State make a comeback but Portland State this time has learned to put the ballgame away.

                          This team was at Northern Arizona a while back and lost by 7 but they returned the favor and beat them at home by 5 points.

                          Who says they can't exact revenge again today?

                          How did Montana do against Idaho State - a team that Portland State just beat by a bucket on the road? The lost to them by 10 at home.

                          Let's look at some more similar teams they have played:

                          Portland State beat Montana State by 11 at home, Montana beat them by 12 at home. Portland State lost to Sac State on the road by 4, Montana lost to Sac State on the road by 8. As mentioned Portland State beat Northern Arizona by 5 at home, Montana beat Norther Arizona by 3 on the road.

                          Also, in the last 10 games, Portland State has never been an underdog given this many points in this series - never. And, I just can't over the fact that at home Portland State is favored by 4, only to be dogged by 6.5 points which I will take to 7 and thus, a 11 point turnaround in spread for a team that can win outright tonight just based on equal talent and revenge.

                          I thought about a possible first half play, but I will gladly take the 7 point spread and hold out in what should be a tight and exciting game but I think Portland State hangs tough as they are 7-3 ATS when facing a spread of 0.5-6.5 dogs and the Grizzlies have lost their last 6 games as favorites. I was so tempted to take Georgetown today as I think they dominate St. Johns and win by double-digits but I will lay off as it such a marquee game and the sole reason I lay off is that St. Johns did defeat Notre Dame and given their performance against Syracuse, it makes me hold off.

                          However, I think GTown rolls today. Regardless, I like the stats and background on this game and will ride the Vikings.

                          That's what I got for today - good luck on whatever you play as playing one game a day is brutally tough and takes tough discipline, but hey got to go with what brought ya - .
                          __________________

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Winner again

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Friday from IC

                              FEBRUARY 2ND TOP PLAY:

                              MANHATTAN +6
                              - I am hoping it rises to 6 points - if not, once again, I will buy the half a point b/c this will be tight. For me, it's just 250 - so the 1/2 point charge is not much if it is go into the bet better off. If anyone sees a 6 anywhere please let me know.


                              Honorable Mention:
                              Yale - Just have a feeling they rout Princeton today given Princeton's lack of scoring ability. But, I didn't get that to be an inflated line on my spreadsheet where as Niagara was an inflated line as I have them winning by 2.8. So, I went with this game.

                              At this time of year and in nearly every part of the year as I mentioned this on another thread, a 5.5 spread is absolutely brutal to cover both in college basketball and football - hell, it should be deeemed as a trap spread to the bettor.

                              I think back and on countless spreads the 5.5 spread leads to an outright win for the dog or them falling just short as it is appealing to take the favorite to cover by 5.5, but it is a pain in the behind spread to cover - in particular football.

                              Now, I don't like Manhattan for that reason but I thought I would just point that out. Manhattan is equal in talent with Niagara - there is no denying that which I will try to establish below.

                              Both teams are around .500 as Manhattan is 11-10 and Niagara is 11-11.

                              But Niagara is laying the points here although they do have revenge from 02/06 as they lost in OT to Manhattan by a point when Manhattan was on the road.

                              Well, we have another Manhattan team on the road at Niagara again. Manhattan has covered this series the last 3/4 years and having followed basketball a while, this team has only gotten better each year which can be attributed to their solid coaching.

                              In fact, they are a team that is very focused on the road as they are 17-4 ATS in thier last 22 ballgames and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. That's right, if you had wagered on Manhattan basketball the last 10 ballgames against the spread, you would have come out a winner 80% of the time.

                              In fact, the underdog is - ready for this - 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

                              On top of all that, Manhattan is 4-1 ATS at Niagara of late, and remember that treacherous spread I was talking about of 5.5 - well Niagara doesn't handle that mark well as they are 2-7 ATS as a favorite by that margin and in fact, not a good home cover overall as they are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home ball games.

                              How has each team done against relative and similar competition - well - about the same with Manhattan getting the slight edge much like Portland State yesterday against Montana.

                              In fact, this game is very similar if you take out the revenge angle.

                              Let me point this out before I fail to mention it - if you place this spread at 6, the game has been decided by 6 points or less the last 5/6 years.

                              Back to the similar competitions between these squads:

                              Manhattan beats Loyola Maryland on the road by 2 as 5.5 dogs (similar to today).
                              Niagara loses by 1 to LMaryland on the road by 1 in OT but covers the 4.5 spread (another 4.5-5.5 spread covered).

                              Manhattan beats Iona on the road by 10 - Niagara beats them b 1 at home.

                              Manhatan beats Rider by 11 as a 6 point chalk at home, Niagara beats them by 1 on the road.

                              Manhattan beats Fairfield by 4 at home, Niagara loses to Farifield by 12 on the road.

                              Manhattan plays Marist and beats them by 1 at home.
                              Niagara beats Marist by 12 on the road - but that was revenge b/c they lost to them at home in overtime by 5 - so this doesn't worry me.

                              So, in short, Manhattan is catching points in a game they could win outright, which is what I like to play, and I'll definitely want to take this at 6 regardless of the line movement - even if I have to buy the 1/2 point. This rivalry has a good record of the road team covering b/c of the close games and the tough spread as a home chalk of 5.5 - this game has been historically close, 2 evenly matched teams as I think Manhattan has a 45/55 shot at winning outright so I'll take the points and the trends as Niagara is typically not a good home cover while Manhattan is a solid road cover and cover of late as they are on a 8-2 ATS run.

                              Also, I try not to wager on any team that shoots a FT% below 65% and Manhattan shoots around 69.7% so that fits the criteria.

                              This is what I have today -

                              Good luck today friends -
                              IC

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X