Indian Cowboy Plays

[GOLDENGREEK]

Thanx for posting--I gave up on him for a while--guy was hitting 65 % for 3 months and he is below .500 since I started posting his plays here.

[BigWeiner]

Go Michigan

[MB17]

nice play. any for today?

[GOLDENGREEK]

South Carolina PK

Honorable Mention - call me crazy, but I actually liked Richmond today.

I think the Gamecocks will upset top 25 Vandy today.

Vandy is a very fickle team and it is hard to know what to expect from them.

2nd Round of midterms today so allow me to be brief.

Vanderbilt is a top 40 team and South Carolina is a top 90 team. However, South Carolina always makes a push at this time of year as that's what Odom's boys have done including back to back NIT Titles and they simply learn their offensive scheme a bit later.

This team first raised my eyebrows when they beat Tennessee at home, then they did it again when they defeated Ole Miss handily at home which was a suprise to me.

Sure, South Carolina has not played that well on the road, but they are at home today and they actually lost to Vandy by 10 on the road earlier this year putting up 68 points which is not typical for this team. However, this team did put up 80 plus points against Tennessee which makes me feel at ease as well.

In fact, I want to show you a clip from this team's eariler offensive production this year to now:

12/9/2006 Away W 64-59 Baylor
12/20/2006 Home W 54-48 Princeton
12/28/2006 Home W 71-51 NC Asheville
12/29/2006 Home W 80-73 Jacksonville
1/3/2007 Home W 67-53 Westrn Carolina
1/7/2007 Home L 54-70 Kansas
1/10/2007 Away L 56-80 Georgia
1/13/2007 Home L 50-84 Florida
1/16/2007 Home L 49-87 Kentucky
1/20/2007 Away L 61-64 Tennessee

Of late:

1/24/2007 Home W 66-60 Arkansas
1/27/2007 Away W 66-63 Mississippi St
1/31/2007 Home L 75-80 Auburn
2/3/2007 Away L 61-64 Alabama
2/7/2007 Away L 89-95 Kentucky
2/10/2007 Home L 54-73 Georgia
2/14/2007 Away L 68-78 Vanderbilt
2/17/2007 Home W 81-64 Tennessee
2/21/2007 Away L 49-63 Florida
2/24/2007 Home W 76-63 Mississippi

I show this to point out that this team is putting up more points as you can see, they defeating Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas all at home with their two losses coming to Auburn barely which is a bit of a suprise as well as Georgia.

Vandy has shown weakness on the road as they are 3-6 but just 1-3 against teams ranked in the 50-100 range.

After winning a huge game against Florida, this team had a let down against Mississippi State. Now, after a big win against Kentucky sweeping them, I think they have a let down here against the Gamecocks who will be also looking for revenge.

The line for this game actually was set at -1 in many offshore books and then has shfited to a basic picke-em which gives a bit more credence to this play.

Finally, there are trends working in favor of South Carolina as well as they have covered their last 4 and 6 of 7 ballgames are 9-2 as an underdog of under 6.5 points and 7-2 ATS when playing a team with straight up winning record.

Vandy is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 ballgames - all in the SEC - and 2-6 ATS when playing a team with a winning record. I also think this game goes under something in the scoring of the mid 60s' for both teams as I think Vandy doesn't get going offensively in this game as they usually do.

I think South Carolina pulls it out much like a Tennessee over a Florida yesterday in a 68-62 type fashion.

Good luck fellas,

Take care,
IC

[MB17]

thanks

[GOLDENGREEK]

Seattle Supersonics -5 (1 unit)


I think they absolutely destroy the living lights out of the Clippers today.

What can I say fellas, I think the Sonics roll today for several reasons. I was going to ride a basketball play, but why should I, when this one is ripe for the picking.

This entire saga and rivalry started when the Sonics won outright back on November 22nd at the Clippers 85-95 as a 5.5 underdog.

Then, the Clippers, furious at the loss, absolutely spanked this team by 22 at Seattle and they were kind in the 4th quarter as they really could have defeated them by 40 if they would have liked, after all, they were up by 89-56 after the 3rd quarter, yea, no kidding right - up by 33!

Then, in the 4th, they purposely scored just 9 points and allowed the Sonics to score 20 to make it a semi-respectable 98-76 loss.

Sonics then were ticked off when they went on the road to lose in a tight ballgame 91-96 where a bad first half did them in although they came back to tie this game as they went even into the 4th quarter tied up.

The difference today? The Sonics will come out absolutely fired up for this game. They have played better basketball of late, and at home, and the Clippers have been horrible on the road.

Hell, the Sonics didn't have to lose by 5 points at LA or be competitive, but they were, and now with that loss fresh on their minds, they will play great basketball tonight.

I had this game siphoned just in case, the Sonics had a close loss which they did and now, I'll ride them at -5, an expected line on a home and home.

You think the Sonics are bad?

Think again friends as with Lewis back in the lineup with Allen, this team has been balling very well at home.

This includes wisn against Portland by 24, Memphis by 16 and Phoenix by 24.

Clippers have a horrible time scoring on the road including 74 at Detroit - but that's Detroit, so it's ok right?

How about 80 at Indiana the game before that losing by 14 points in in that game? How about 90 at Philly? How about 77 at Cleveland en route to a 15 point loss and 90 points against New York, losing by 12 in a game they were favored by 1.

Top it all off, Livingston is out for the year.

Clippers are 2-12 ATS when they are an underdog of 5-10 points, 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and the Sonics are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.

I have the Sonics winning by 15 Gentleman as they will have too much offense at home.

So in recap: This saga has been developing for a while now, and the Sonics will now get the better end of this team at home as they have far more scoring, been playing good basketball at home, have double-revenge off a home and home which is even better, Livingston is done for the year so that affects the Clippers depth, Clippers can't score on the road typically, have been playing very bad basketball especially as road underdogs and underdogs in general, sonics off an ATS loss and with Lewis back they should pop over a 100 while I doubt the Clippers hit over 90 this evening.

Sonics 110, Clippers 90 is how I have this game fellas.

Take care gents,

IC

[wayne1218]

Sea -5? The line has been -8 since early today.

[BigWeiner]

I like the Supersonics too

[GOLDENGREEK]

Honorable Mentions:
Yale
Harvard
Eastern Michigan

PORTLAND -2 over Loyola Marymount

This game is in Portland on Portland' home court at the Chiles Center.

Some background: Both these teams are in the WCC, the conference with Santa Clara and Gonzaga.

Portland is 8-22 and Loyola is 11-13. Portland is terrible right? Well, what if I mentioned that Portland's 7 of those 8 wins come at home.

And that one road win came on the road against Pepperdine on the road back on February 5th.

Portland and Loyola Marymount have met twice this year with Portland winning first by 16 at home as a 1 point favorite, then Loyola Marymount getting their revenge at home winning by 15 at home.

So, now Portland gets to play this team on their home court after losing to them on the road.

Portland any good at home?

Let's say their productivity has come solely at home, although they have played better as the year has progressed on the road.

Portland is a team of reptition many times as they beat Pepperdine at home, beat them on the road recently for their first road win, beat a top 200 team in Montana at home, beat Montana State, lost to San Diego by 4, San Fran by 1, beat St. Mary's CA, the 3rd ranked team in the conference and lost tight ballgames to San Fran and San Diego on the road.

Watch out for this name: Darren Cooper, he will be a key player in this game and is an absolute stud to watch.

This is what college basketball is all about, school is in session and the home team carries the load here in my opinion here. Portland is hosting this tournament and they will be psyched for this game and this team is simply a different team at home. There is a USA Article below on both Portland and Loyola Marymount that I've attached for your further reading as well.

Trends in Favor:

Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of under 6.5 points.

Pilots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.

Pilots are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

By the way, Portland has every edge in this game with respect to Field Goal Percentage - one of the tops in the nation, almost made 30 in a row at one point recently, top 50 in the nation, field goal percentage, defense, rebounding and bench. However, not in scoring and turnovers, but being away from home in a hostile environment, evens this out as it did in game 1 of this matchup when Portland won handily at home.

I suspect this line to rise to -3 by game time.

Good luck fellas,
IC

Attached Articles from USA Today as I have found those to be helpful upon researching.

Portland Article/Notes:

Portland Game Info:


Portland has the distinct advantage of playing the WCC Tournament on its home court, and the Pilots have played much better at home than on the road. That was evident in their results against Loyola Marymount, Portland's first-round opponent in the tourney, that begins on Friday, March 2.


Portland beat LMU by 16 points at home and lost to the Lions by 15 points when they met in Los Angeles.


Although they are 1-15 away from home, Portland is 7-7 at the Chiles Center, and they beat St. Mary's in their final home game of the regular season.


That may be enough to get the Pilots past the first round and may even enable them to pull an upset that would get them to the semifinals. But because they finished in the bottom half of the standings, the Pilots would have to win four games to capture the conference tournament title, and that seems to be beyond their reach.


Portland has played a bit better lately, because freshman guard Taishi Ito is getting more comfortable in his position. But guard Darren Cooper, who had regained his rhythm after missing much of the early season with assorted injuries, played poorly on offense in the final three regular-season games.


Portland rebounds pretty well, but it does not do much else well, and the Pilots simply do not shoot the ball well enough to suddenly go on a long winning streak.


They are shooting less than 30 percent on three-pointers, and while they may get hot for one game, it seems unlikely they could do that for more than two games at the most.


Sherrard Watson had the best game of his career in the Feb. 26 game against San Francisco, and the Pilots may need another game like that from him to advance past the first round.



NOTES, QUOTES

—Portland had made 29 consecutive free throws before Jamie Jones missed one with 1:58 left against San Diego on Feb. 24.


—The Pilots needed one win in their final two regular-season home games to match last season’s win total in conference games, but they lost both.


—For the first time since 1994-95, Portland will wind up with a positive rebounding margin. The Pilots had a plus-3.7 margin heading into the conference tournament.


—Sherrard Watson had a season-high 21 points against San Diego on Feb. 24, then scored 28 two days later against San Francisco in the final regular-season game.


QUOTE TO NOTE: "The true measure of this road trip will be determined by how we respond and compete against San Francisco." — Portland coach Eric Reveno after the Feb. 24 loss to San Diego.


STRATEGY AND PERSONNEL

G Darren Cooper was bottled up in his final three games, being limited to single-digit scoring in all three. He was just 2-for-11 from the field in the final regular-season game against San Francisco.


PLAYER ROTATION: Usual starters — C Ben Sullivan, F Sherrard Watson, G Taishi Ito, F. Jamie Jones, G Darren Cooper. Key subs — G Walter Thompson, C Kevin Field, G Ethan Niedermeyer.


GAME PREVIEW


Vs. Loyola Marymount, at Portland, Friday, March 2, in WCC Tournament.


KEYS: Senior G Darren Cooper had two of his best games of the season against Loyola Marymount, including a season-high 28 points in the win over Loyola Marymount in Portland. He will need to have similar success this time, and that will require him to rebound from a shooting slump he had over the final three games. Sherrard Watson came from nowhere to have big games in the Pilots’ final two regular-season games, and if he can continue that run, the Pilots have a decent chance of beating Loyola Marymount.


ROSTER REPORT:


—With his eighth and final point against San Francisco, Darren Cooper scored the 1,000th point of his career.


—Senior C Kevin Field, who had been a starter much of the season, played less than eight minutes in each of the Pilots' two final regular-season games, scoring just two points in each.
__________________

[GOLDENGREEK]

March 5th Top Play:

Siena/Niagara Over 150.5

I have this game at 160 personally.

I like this over for several reasons, in fact, I very rarely play overs, as I'm typically an under guy, but this game is an exception.

So many people want to take a side on this game so badly, but as for me I think both offenses are prolific, they can put up points in a hurry and not to mention the off-chance of overtime all makes sense for a decent over.

These teams love to run and gun and the last 5 times they have met, the game has gone over.

Now, the total is set at a high 150, which seems tough to go over, but not necessarily.

First of all, both teams are on fire.

Niagara has won their last 10 of 11 ballgames, while Siena has won their last 9 of 10.

Siena comes off that huge win over Niagara in overtime where they scored a total of 86 points.

In fact, in this gym, just take a look at the total outpouring of scores from both of these teams:

Siena:

86 on Marist
75 on Manhattan

Niagara:

89 on Loyola Maryland
77 against Rider

In their previous meetings, these teams scored a total of 173 points in regulation. Do I think they get that high again today? No, but I do think they both top 75 personally.

If you tack on the fact that Niagara has the revenge factor, this is the championship game, both of these teams have not played defense in most of their ballgames, it gives this over a strong chance of hitting.

Secondary play today was the over in gmason/vcu as I think that game hits over 130 as the winner hits 70 and the loser hits in the low 60's but I went with this game b/c I had that game at 134 but have this game at 163 which to me is more than a 10 point differential.

I think in the first half of this game it will be in the low to mid 70's and the winning team pops 50 in teh second half to the loser's 40, much like the last time these two teams met, hence 75 in the first half and roughly 90 points in the second half to the low 160's or roughly 163.

Siena averages 76 points a game while Niagara has averaged 75 points per game, but that doesnt tell the story of better offensive performances from both teams in this tourney and Niagara playing much better now of late as compared to earlier in the season when they weren't popping as many points.

The trends are in support of this over as well as Siena:

Is 6-0 to the over when playing a team w/a winning percentage greater than 60%, the over is 6-1 when siena is a favorite of 6.5 points or less or a ballgame that is expected to be tight and not to mention the over is 4-1 in the last 5 neutral site games.

For Niagara, the trends are just as supporting for the over as the over is 5-0 when Niagara plays a team with a winning percentage greater than 60%, the over is 5-1 when Niagara is a small underdog of less than 6 points, or when a game is expected to be close the over is 28-9 in Niagara games overall.

I feel that at least one team reaches 80 and the other 70 and hence this game goes over as I have it at 163.

That's what I got - good luck today fellas,
IC

[GOLDENGREEK]

February 28th - Michigan - W
March 1st - Seattle - L (No Ray Allen gamtime decision)
March 2nd - Portland - W
March 3rd - Iowa - W
March 4th - Celtics - W
March 5th - Siena/Niagara Over - W

Last night was a bit easier than the Celtics double-ot. Looking forward to another easy cover today.

MARCH 6TH TOP PLAY:

T-WOLVES -1.5 (1 unit - as always now)
I faded the Twolves at Boston, and now I will ride the Twolves as they return home.

There are a few basic principles why I like the Twolves today.

On the team's website it is clearly noted that the new coach mentioned that this team will not quit and they will figure it out - that is whatever is causing them to lose consistently.

However, the Lakers will be playing yet again without Odom and Walton - 2/3 top scorers and of course Kobe is still there and this team was competitive against Phoenix, but this game is a bit different I think.

The Twolves are desperate for a win and I mean absolutely desperate.

In the game against Boston I thought to myself, this Twolves team does have talent and when they play against the Lakers, they will simply have more weapons all around as compared to the Lakers.

It comes down to the fact that with the atmosphere that will be at hand today as the Twolves still continue to have a great home atmosphere and with the Lakers coming into town, the place will be popping.

It should be interesting to see how the Twolves respond to a double-ot loss to the celtics and the question can beg, how can one wager on a team that lost to the celtics.

However, to me, it comes down to the twolves simply having more scoring option with Hudson, Davis and of course Garnett.

The Lakers only real scoring threats are Kobe and Cook at this time. I thought about taking the Wizards today but I'd rather fade the Lakers than the Raptors at this point.

The Twolves have lost 3 in a row SU to the Lakers but have covered their last 6 of 7 against the Lakers as well.

Keep in mind the line opened at +1 for the Lakers and desipte most of the public in many poll all over the Lakers, the line is moving in favor of the Twolves which I like as well.

The Twolves are 4-1 as a small home favorite of late and the Lakers are1-4-1ATS as small underdogs of late.

There is only so much Kobe can do and if he can take on this Twolves team on his own, more power to him, but I'll take Garnett, Hudson and Davis at home versus Kobe, Cook and even thrown in Bynum for good measure at this time.

[GOLDENGREEK]

MARCH 7TH TOP PLAY

MARCH 7TH TOP PLAY

Dukes +10 (Taking a 1/2 point by gametime or waiting for better line - 6:30)

The Dukes have been so good to me this year. And although I was ready to fade the Hawks at home, I will take my Dukes here in what could be their last game of the season unless they get a birth to the NIT which is unlikely.

Nevertheless, I will lay down my play of the day with them today.

St. Louis is a half court team and I firmly think that they do not have the presence to overcome the Dukes offense today.

In fact, I can easily see the Dukes upsetting this team just like they did back on January 6th on the road.

Why did they upset them?

Well, St. Louis does not want to run and the Dukes want to run and consequently when the Dukes put up 70, St. Louis does not run that type of offense and therefore, they could only manage 63 at home.

St. Louis is a team either plays up to their competition or plays down to their competition regardless of who it is:

In conference even considering these splits, St. Louis does not have the capacity to blow out anyone.

In fact, here is a stat for you, in the last 17 ballgames, St. Louis has not defeated a team by more than 10 points, all but 2 games.

Heck, this team even lost to St. Bonny which just goes to show that in the Atlantic 10 with a team that can put up points anyone can lose.

The Dukes have had a roller coaster season, as they lose some key members of the team to a shooting, nearly lost their coach to health problems only to find themselves with a birth to the conference tournament today.

Yes, they have lost their last 7 ballgames straight up, but I could care less.

This team lost to a good GW team on road ground by 8, now they play in neutral ground, not to mention they've already defeated St. Louis on the rod once this season before they even got comfortable with their new run and gun offense.

To me, this game comes down to the fact that the Dukes can score and St. Louis's offense is not that liberal. St. Louis will win this game, but I will gladly take the 10 point cushion as the Dukes have been through far too much to lay down today in the conference tourney and they will leave it all out there as I love their coach as he is much like the Southern Miss coach, fiery and will get his boys up to par today.

I'll gladly take the Dukes who have shown they can beat the cream of the crop at many points this season including defeating Xavier, Temple, Dayton and La Salle. Considering this team hung in so valiantly against George Washington on the road as well as a tough place to play in Fordham on the road losing by 3 and 8 to GW, I will gladly take this team on neutral court against a team they have already beat on the road earlier this year.

St. Louis comes into this game 2-10 ATS following a SU loss, 1-5 ATS on neutral sites and 0-4 ATS against teams with a winning percentage lower than 40%.

The Dukies are 8-2 in their last 10 as underdogs.

Whatever the result is today, there was no doubt that I was riding the Dukes today.

Best of luck friends,
IC
__________________

[GOLDENGREEK]

Latest Results:

March 1st - Seattle - L (No Ray Allen gamtime decision)
March 2nd - Portland Pilots - W
March 3rd - Iowa - W
March 4th - Celtics - W
March 5th - Siena/Niagara Over - W
March 6th - Twolves - W
March 7th - Duquesne - W

Trying for the Golden Week Today Fellas - This will be my 3rd Golden Week in
7 months if I hit today. An easier cover with Duquesne yesterday, looking forward to Thursday.


March 8th Top Play

My boy Ric was right -

San Diego State -4 (Bodog) (10:45am)

I won't be able to watch this game b/c I will have to be hitting the sack for an early conference but I'm sure you fellas will me in on what happened. Maybe I'll be able squeak a score every now and then before hitting the pillow.

However, San Diego State was expected to win their conference and I suspect they begin playing better after the Air Force game which was a personaly favorite of mine, b/c I was on that game and I think that is when they turned their season around.

San Diego State has coverd this series the last 6 times they have played including one time in which it was a push but I look at that line too and it seems that if you got that line early, they would have covered that game as well for the 7th time in a row.

San Diego has played Colorado State twice now and have beat them both times including by 5 at home and then by 15 on the road holding the Rams to under 68 points which is a key that I will mention a bit later.

My favorite trends in this game is that the Rams are 0-5 straight up against teams with a straight up record which to me means they are getting up for the big games while San Diego State is 6-0 ATS against teams with a striaght up record, which means they are getting for the big games.

Why are they? Because they are far more talented on the offensive and defensive side of the ball and hit their stride midway through the season so their earlier losses I think deflate the line a little bit.

Personally, I had this line at -5.5 and thought it could be at -6 by gametime and I would have still rode this team, but a bit suprised here at the 4 to 4.5 line and was excited.

San Diego State, an example, that they have been playing better are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and Colorado State is not efficient away from home.

Colorado State once again is 0-5 ATS when they are on neutral footing and if they don't get to 70 this game, I like the chances of the cover and it will be probably be an easier cover.

For example, they scored 66 points at home and away from home, they have trouble on offense while San Diego State home or away can put up points, hence 81 points the last 2 times they met both home and away in this series this year alone.

San Diego State hits over 71% of their free throws and is actually top 50 in the nation in field goal percentage at 47% while on the defensive end allowing just 67 points a game roughly.

I think that San Deigo State score in the high 70's and if they hit the mid 70's, I like their cover as I have my doubts if the Rams can hit 70 on neutral court or away from home.

As a final note, I like an intricacy of this game as well.

Not sure how the total in this game will go, but I do know this. TCU has played to the under 4 of their last 5 games as underdogs and on neutral court while San Diego State is as a small favorite 4 of their last 5 ballgames and 11 of their last 16 following an ATS loss. These teams have hooked up for the over the last 6 of 7 times they have played. Personally, I am not playing the over, but do like the fact of taking San Diego State in a higher scoring type of game which is typically fielded by these teams.

San Diego State wins by dd in my book.

San Diego State 80, Colorado State 67.

See you fellas tomorrow -
Take care,
IC
__________________

[BigWeiner]

I agree, go SD

[GOLDENGREEK]

I agree, go SD

he has hit 6 straight