Indian Cowboy Plays

[GOLDENGREEK]

2-0 Yesterday as Ariznoa State First half for 1.5 units and the game for 3 units roll in. That means I'm back up on the month by a unit. Nothing much too hang your hat on, but being up is up. I would have loved to jump on Providence yesterday, but just couldn't have too much $$ out there as the monthly picture is what is important and getting out of the game early is no fun especially with 20+ days to go.

Besides, my favorite conference is on showcase today - the Ivy - .

Records:

(61%)SEP = 6 Units (Goal 5.5)=0.5 Banked for rainy month. = $1500 Profit
(64%)OCT = 7 Units(Goal 5.5) = 1.5 Banked for rainy month. = $1750 Profit
(64%)NOV =7 Units(Goal 5.5) = 1.5 Banked for rainy month. = $1750 Profit
(74%)DEC =16 Units(Goal 5.5 Units) = 10.5 Banked for rainy month = $4000 Profit
(59%)JAN = 5.5 Units (Goal 5.5 Units) = 0 Units Banked for Rainy Month = $1300 Profit.

Total Proift Thus Far: $10,300 in 5 Months.
+14 Units Banked for Rainy Month

Lifetime Record: 647 Plays - 62%.





Cornell +2.5 (2.5 Units) - Please wait for the best lines - this should continue to go down.

Cornell is the better team and Princeton is ovverrated. Do we need more analysis than that?

The fact remains that Cornell has been playing better of late and Princeton just cannot score. This team averages a lowly 50.8 points per ball game and the last time these two teams hooked up back January 13th, it was ugly with Cornell winning 55-35.

In fact, Princeton is 0-8 ATs of late and they are favored in this game, which is just ridiculous in my mind. In fact, I would have taken this game at a pick-em frankly.

Cornell has just 13 wins - but do you know they have won their last 8 out of 10. In fact, how can I not wager on a team that defeatd Yale at home - the powerhouse in the league Yale at home - heck, Penn even lost to Yale.

There was a reason why the oddsmakers placed the line at +1.5 when Yale came intow town b/c they knew Cornell was playing better ball.

Princeton is slightly better at home as they did beat Harvard in overtime, but that is a game they could have lost and Cornell went on the road to lose by just a bucket to this team.

I think this game comes down to me to the fact that Cornell can score and Princeton has trouble scoring. The line continues to move down which favors Cornell and Princeton who is 0-8 ATS on the year shouldn't be laying points to anyone.

The Big Red ar 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 6-0 as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. Princeton is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Ivy Laegue games, 0-8 ATS overall once again, Cornell has covered 4 of the last 5 times in this series and finally the underdog is 5-0 ATS of late in this series.

Don't mess with da' Big Red. .

Cornell 58 - Princeton 55.

Winthrop +6.5 (2.5 Units) - This should continue to go down

Winthrop should win this game outright. Once again, I have been on Winthrop for a long time, heck, after their game against Wisconsin, I put down a $100 in Vegas to win the entire NCAA Tourney as my cinderella story for the tourney this year at the odds at that time were 1/25,000.

This team can play.

They have just 4 losses this year and have 22 wins and are 2-0 ATS and in fact, 8-2 ATS the last 10 times there has been a line on them.

This is one of my favororite teams b/c they are so well coached.

Their losses, none other than playing some of the toughest schools in the nation and going toe to toe against them.

They lost by just 3 points on the road against Wisconsin in overtime, something that most Big 10 schools can't even do or not duplicated, lost to this team called Texas AM, Maryland and lost to UNC by just 7 points on the road.

Creighton I pointed out in my other thread is a good team, but they do have 8 losses on the year and they are just 1-4 against top 50 teams including losses to Northern Iowa at home, getting swept by a similar top 35 ranked team such as Creighton twice - Winthrop is a top 35 team as well, in fact, I have them as 30 and 31 respectively - and even losing to Evansville in the mix.

I look forward to bettnig Winthrop usually when there is a line, there is today, and this is a team they can go and win outright against. If this team can almost beat Wisconsin on the road in overtime, they can certainly beat SE Missouri.

The Eagles have covered their last 5 road games and are 6-0 ATs as an underdog.

Eagles 72 - SE Missouri 68.

Columbia +13 (2.5 Units) - This should continue to go down.

I went back and forth on this but I'll tell you what made me decide to ride this team.

I follow the Ivy very closely as it is my favorite conference and to me the lines are the easiest to understand for some reason more than any other conference, well that and the Big East.

Penn was favored by this margni against Princeton and they barely covered and for many people it was a push at 13.

Princeton might be one of the worst road scoring teams in the nation popping around the high 30's in ballgames as they did against Dartmouth and Penn.

Columbia on the other hand can score and the line is quickly moving down as it opened at 13 and I grabbed it and since writing this, it has moved down to 12.5 but who knows, could move back up later.

The underdog is 9-3 ATS in this series and Columbia actually has the better free throw shooting percentage and bench heading into this game.

Yes, Penn beat this team by 23 back in January but this team is much better than that and they have showed that of late. After all, they baet Brown by 9, beat Harvard at Harvard by a startling 20 points putting up 90 total points, and beating Dartmouth on the road - all teams that Princeton struggled against - and Princeton simply lost by 13 where this line is at.

Columbia is a better team since January 17th and I think they hang awfully tough today.

In addition, Columbia has covered its last 4 of 5 in Penn and the Quakers are 1-6 ATS following an ATS win which means the linesman make it tough for Penn to have a back to back cover.

Penn wins 74-66.

[GOLDENGREEK]

On the road fellas, writing from a cell phone - yesterday was a good day - now up 5.5 units on the month - 6-2 Run - nice hits with gtown and liberty yesterday.

Today's play:

USC -6 1 1/2 units

Let's just say that USC is no UCLA and they love to run up the score and Arizona State I have a feeling is getting more respect now than they deserve and look for USC to win by 10-15 points, I wish I could write more, but no where near a computer in south alabama, visiting my uncle, so I will have a full analysis for this game by 5pm when I reach Atlanta.

Thanks and hope you understand as I never write anything this short.

[MB17]

Greek, can you get my email address from a mod?

[GOLDENGREEK]

FEBRUARY 19TH TOP PLAY:

Fairfield +1 (1.5 unit)

I have to be honest, I don't like this card one bit today. Far too many road favorites laying points and the home dogs are plaing some very good teams or have revenge.

This is simply the beginning of the week and there is no reason to force anything as some more options tomorrow are coming up with a nice nba card as well as college hoops card. Took a long hard look at Kansas today but the line continues to go down, which annoys me a bit and it is a public play and kansas state has a huge revenge factor going into that game.

So, I decided to roll with a game that has revenge working in my favor - Fairfield at home against Marist.

Yes, Marist is a good squad and for that reason I respect that and going with just 1.5 unit today and they have won 5 ballgames in a row after losing 2 straigh to Niagara and Manhattan to which they avenged their loss last game. Just the beginning of the week, so nothing extravagant.

However, Fairfield lost to this team by 1point on the road when they had just started playing well and now they have been playing very well of late having won 7 in a row at one point and 9 of their last 11 ballgames including a ton of confernce victories including Seina on the road, Niagara at home, Canisius and Loyola Maryland.

In the MAAC anything can happen especially with evenly matched teams in talent and Fairfield is not a public play which makes it like it even moe and then 2 games they lost out of the past 11 was one to Marist by 1 on the road as mentioned and the other to Siena at home by 5 points on Siena's revenge. Well, the revenge works in Fairfield's favor and they have trends supporting them as

The Red Foxes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against Metro opponents, I have riden Fairfield before with success, the Red Foxes are 1-5 ATS as a road favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 and the Stags are 6-1-1 ATS overall, 5-1-1 ATS in the Metro of late and 4-0 ATS of late as underdogs.

I'm on Fairfield for small at 1.5 units fellas but that's what I have for the start of the week.

Take care fellas,
IC

[GOLDENGREEK]

FEBRUARY 20TH TOP PLAY:

3 Plays Today:

Honorable Mention: Portland - Deron is out it seems.


George Mason (-16) (2.5 Units)
I very rarely lay points but I will do so with George Mason today becausse I think they flat out destroy Georgia State in an ugly manor.

George Mason is a team that does not do very well against the cream of the crop but like to show their dominance against the lower teams in the league and doesn't let up on scoring when they do.

For example, when they played agaisnt Deleware on the road, they won by 20 points by a final score of 66-46, then they took on Deleware at home and won by 30 points.

Sure, Deleware is horrible, but I've seen Georgia State play in person so I know they can't be too much better than State who is not a great team themselves as I've mascoted against them with Mercer several times. However, the Varisty restaurant there is very good on a brighter note. .

George Mason beat James Madison by 18 on the road, a similarly ranked top 300 team like Delware, defeated Northeastern by 25, a game that I think this game will be verry similar to as Georgia State and Northeastern are similar in talent and who beat NC Wilmington by 21.

There is a reason that I feel this line is so high as I have Gmason by the straight numbers winning by 10. However, the numbers on the spreadsheet are just part of the puzzle as there are other things that go along with a selection, and in this case, given that GMason comes off losing their 4 of their last 5, they need to beat the tar out of someone and Georgia State will serve that purpose.

After all, their last 4 losses (losing 4 of 5) have come against some of the top 75 teams in the nation including Kent, Hofstra, Virginia Commonwealth and ODU.

I look for GMason to win this game by 20-25 points today.

Trends in Favor:

George Mason is 6-1 ATS when they play teams that have a winning percentage of .400% or lower.

George Mason is 11-2-1 ATS after a straight up loss

The Georgia State Panthers are 0-4 ATS as a road underdog.



Creighon (-2) (2.5 Units)

In the MVC it's all about home court, but then again, this year, it's been a bit different.

When a team in the top 100 ends up playing a team in the top 40, they have not done so well at home and they lose close ballgames at home.

This is the case for Creighton as I will gladly take them at this point spread.

I don't look at line movements anymore as Kansas vs. Kansas State was a prime example, as Kansas State was being pushed down, yet Kansas came through and covered.

I try to keep the way I pick now clear of all that nonsense and just roll with a good team, favoring good trends and have are focused to winning the ball game for an additional reason - may it be revenge, needing a big win after some losses or other incentives besides the obvious "W".

I say this because the line opened up at 2.5 and moved down to 2 and I'll take it at this spot.

I know Creighton is 5-7 on the road, but they are not the same road team as they once were early in the season.

Early in the season they had lost to top 100 teams on the road such as Nebraska by 12, Dayton by 15, Hawaii by 4, Indiana State by 3 and finally won their first road game at Evansville by 13.

So, this team lost their first 5 road games. So, they're 5-7 road record is a decieving considering they are 5-2 on the road of late when they have played tougher opponents - in-conference as considered by the pr rankings.

Plus, the 2 road losses out of the last 7 games have come by a combined total of 7 points and one was to Southern Illinois by 4 (a team they lost to at home by a point before that) and the other by Wichita State by 3.

However, on the road, they have shown some great prowess winning on the road at Bradley who is a top 50 team in the nation by 11, beating Drake by 5 on the road - two teams that are very tough to beat on the road, especially the Braves and beating top 40 Missouri State by 4 on the road which is incredibly tough as well.

So, this team has come a long ways and the Blue Jays have some great trends supporting them as I feel that they have learned from their previous road games and now are playing some great ball with that expereince.

Illinois State is 9-4 on the road, but they are 0-3 when playing top 50 teams at home, but then again, they are 4-0 against 50 to 100 ranked teams.

Where does Creighton fit in? The last 10 games they are playing top 25 level ball and overall pr ranking in the top 50.

This team has already lost to Bradley, Missouri State and Indiana State at home and Illinois State is vulnerable at home. Creighton won 79-71 earlier this year and I think they roll by 6-8 points on the road and pull out the tough road win.

The Blue Jays are focused as the tourney approaches.

Trends in Favor:

Bluejays are 7-0 when facing a team with a home winning percentag of .700% or greater - meaning they show up to the big games.

Bluejays are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Bluejays are 7-0 ATS following a ATS loss - as they lost outright to Drexel and I think they come out fired up for this game.

Redbirds are 2-7 ATS as a home underdog of late.


UNLV (-2.5 taking a half a point) (2.5 units)Revenge!

Lol. I love the revenge angle and always will.

Especially with a top 25 team like UNLV that can flat out play some ball.

Listen, Air Force is good, but I still don't think they have the capacity to beat a top 50 team on the road like UNLV. I just don't - as they haven't done it all year and I don't think they do it tonight when UNLV has revenge written all over this game.

I've had good success betting on or against Airforce (3-0) and I feel like there is a decent beat with this team as far as the way they play.

Air Force has yet to play a top 25 team on the road and they did win at New Mexicon on the road which I expected considering New Mexico is a top 125 team.

However, this game reminds me of the BYU game as a benchmark when Air Force lost 52-61, losing to San Diego State by 21, losing to Utah by 6 and barely getting past top 100 Wyoming by a bucket.

UNLV is 13-1 at home and their most impressive home win to me is when they beat BYU by 8 and not to mention this team can play the big games winning on the road at Nevada, Texas Tech and Hawaii.

But, at home, this team again is 13-1, they can play some great basketball, Air Force lacks scoring prowess on the road, UNLV seeks revenge and they have some great trends in their favor.

Trends in Favor:

Air Force is 0-8 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage of .600% or greater.

Air Force is 2-8 ATS following a straight up win.

Air Force is 1-4 ATS when they are a small road underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points.

UNLV is 14-5 ATS when favored by 0.5 to 6.5 points.

[MB17]

With the plays on this board, dude has been mediocre lately. He seems to ha e had a couple of winning days, but we missed out on those.

Can someone that knows the site where he posts get my email address and shoot me an email with the name of the site? I'd just like to know where he posts so that I can get the plays just in case Greek can't post them.

[GOLDENGREEK]

With the plays on this board, dude has been mediocre lately. He seems to ha e had a couple of winning days, but we missed out on those.

Can someone that knows the site where he posts get my email address and shoot me an email with the name of the site? I'd just like to know where he posts so that I can get the plays just in case Greek can't post them.

Make a new thread asking Sperk or a mod asking them for my email or to give me yours

[GOLDENGREEK]

Leans: - since, i've capped every game - no particular order: Ohio, Northeastern, Georgia Tech, Rutgers, East Carolina, Evansville, Wyoming, Byu, Utep, South Carolina, NC State, Knicks, Raptors.

Almost Plays: Bobcats, Rhode Island.

Lots of great games out there today, but these are the final 3 that I decided on after capping the entire card.

FEBRUARY 21st TOP PLAY:

Ole Miss -3 (3 units)

I was very close to riding the Bucks, in fact, I wrote the analysis and then deleted it to ride Ole Miss today instead. I'd rather take the small home team favorite here in college ball versus the Bucks who should cover but the trends don't favor that game as the home team is 10-2-1 ATS in that series and the Pacers are playing with plenty of rest and the Bucks just played a tight ball game versus the Pistons last night.

Back to Ole Miss - this is the first game Georgia plays without Mike Mercer, who I have seen play here as he is from Macon on the road. Yes, this team beat Auburn at home but on the road is a different story and this team will be without the athleticism and the activeness of Mercer.

Mercer is a physical player and if you are going to beat Ole Miss you must be physical and Georgia will rely far too much on the outside shot today.

If the 3's don't fall for Georgia, I think Ole Miss wins this game by double-digits.

Ole Miss is the team that went toe to toe with Florida on the road as did other teams including Vandy. Heck, I almost thought about South Carolina, but alas, I do just 3 plays max and why go against the Gators at home who still have bitter dislike for SCarolina after the SEC tourney last year and I could see Ole Miss doing well against UGA tonight.

Ole Miss if you remember, beat Tennessee by 14 at home, Miss State by 12 at home, Bama by 6, but LSU by just 1.

Georgia, is a good team with 15 wins, but the catch here is that Georgia barely beat Kennesaw State, another team that I have seen play and who Mercer actually defeated at home. Georgia won that game by 9 and beat Auburn by just 7 as their depth was lacking near the end of that game.

Georgia even with Mike Mercer are 0-6 against top 50 teams and but 2-0 against 50-100 teams such as Ole Miss. However, what changed my mind is the trends despite this being a public play.

The Rebels are 4-0 ATS following a straight up loss, 7-0 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600%, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

The Bulldogs have covered the last 7 time these two teams have met, but the home team is 4-1 ATS in this series.

The Bulldogs do not play well as underdogs as they are 2-9 ATS in the last 11games as an underdog, 0-4 ATS against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600% and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in the SEC.

This game will be close as UGA is not a pushover, but I think Ole Miss wins by 7 when all is said and done and they have a bit of revenge from last year's loss at UGA.

This game will be much like Missouri vs. Oklahoma yesterday, but I think this team will miss Mike Mercer in their first road game without him. That's the one thing that I can't get away from in this game.

Tulane +7 (Bought 1/2 point) (1.5 Units)

Have to get back to the hospital as I don't have much more time to write, as I write this play the last.

Apologize for the brevity of this write-up but Tulane has simply played very well and impressive of late and Houston can hold back Tulane today.

Tulane goes on the road to beat Southern Miss by 15, destroys Texas El Paso by 25 at home, yes, got destroyed by memphis on the road, but then took care of business against Central Florida by 6 at home and beat Marshall on the road.

I think Houston is a good team, but they lost at Southern Miss by 5, defeating a good UAB team at home, lost to South Bama at home another top 125 team similar to Tulane, sure, they beat East Carolina badly after coming off that loss, but then lost to Utep on the road.

This game will be similar to UAB game in which this team lost at Southern Miss only to return home and beat UAB. Tulane has played very tough on the road as they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

I spotted the first 6 at Betcris and I suspect it will go down, but I think getting it at +7 is important. I got burned taking a road dog in this conference at +7 if you remember the time before so I'm a bit wary as my team covered the whole way only to fall out late - believe it was Rice against UAB, but I'll bite again as i think Tulane can hang in there today.

Portland Trailblazers +10.5 (Wsex/will take 1/2 point) (3 units)

The Lakers are horrible right now and shouldn't be laying points to anyone, especially not a Portland team that is capable of staying within single digits or quite possibly winning this game outright.

Coach Nate is one of my favorite coaches and he teaches the lost art of defense.

The Underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings between these 2 ballclubs.

Porltand comes off a nice win against the Jazz, who were without Deron Williams, but Derek Fisher did a nice job subbing in as he scored 20 points as the Blazers showed they can play with the cream of the crop.

The Blazers lost to Denver in OT, lost to Chicago by a bucket at home, lost to Phoenix at home in OT, beat Charlotte at Charlotte in OT, beat Washington on the road, then lost badly to Miami and Orlando on the road - although to the Magic by just 12 and they were in the Miami game the whole way except for a collapse in one quarter and beat Utah yesterday.

The Lakers have lost 5 straight, including losing to Detroit by 15 on th eroad, lost to the Raptors by 4, losing to the Cavs by 9 on the road, losing to the Knicks by 1 at home and losing to the Cavs again by 6 at home.

The Lakers have failed to cover 6 straight ballgames at home and are 2-8 ATS as a favorite.

My favorite stat for Portland is that they are 8-1 ATS when they allowed their opponents over a 100 points a ballgame b/c they are a defensive minded team or atleast attempt to be and this team is 13-3 ATS when facing a team with a su winning record.

Jarrett Jack, Zach Randolph, Brandon Roy, Udoka and Aldridge will hang tough.

Walton is questionable but Radmonovich is out for this team for a while and Evans is questionable too. I'll take my chance and will take the 1/2 point if necessary.
__________________

[GOLDENGREEK]

San Jose State +11.5 (2 Units)

Thank you, may I have another?

I typically like dogs and when I saw this line, I looked forward to it.

San Jose State gets an awful lot of slack for a team that has done relatively well of late.

I have this team losing by 9 points but I want to point out some of the games this team has had.

I am well aware that they have lost 22 games and could care less. As in most of my selections, I start with the bad to get all the facts out there and then go to bat for the team with the good aspects about them.

San Jose State if you remember, was the team that Fresno State at home outright 64-61, Fresno State being a top 100 team, and then the spread against them was something in the mid to high teens when this team faced off against Fresno State again on the road. While many thought they were going to get blown out on the road in a revenge situation, that just was not the case.

This team fought hard and lost 64-67 nearly winning outright again.

So what?

Fluke right?

Not necessarily.

This team then loses by 20 to Hawaii, yes, that was bad -

But how about losing to New Mexico State by 7 at home, a top 75 team, or how about beating La Tech at home by 3 (La Tech a team that could beat quite nearly anyone at home, just check their splits) and beating Idaho by 3 on the road, which there is something to be said about winning a conference road game and you ready for the next catch - losing by a point to Boise State back on February 10th.

Fluke right? Nah. This team then goes on the road to lose by 8 points to Nevada and then loses by 11 points to Northern Arizona.

This game reminds me of the UL-Monroe game at Western Kentucky if you remember, as I think the cover will be close, but will fall within single-digits.

Boise State is a good team but lost to Nevada by 4, lost to La Tech by 8 (who San Jose State beat at home) on the road and New Mexico State by 10 on the road who San Jose State lost to by 7 at home.

I'm not saying San Jose State makes the upset today, but I do think they hang within single-digits.

The Spartans are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and covered their last 5 WAC Conference Games.

The Broncos are 1-5 ATS following a striaght up win.


California +15 (2 Units)

This line opened up at 16.5 in most sportsbooks, still at pinnacle for that price, but of course, that does me and most of you no good and has quickly been bought down to +15 which should indicate something to you right away.

When a line jumps down 1.5 points in a heartbeat that in some cases is a tornado siren going off.

California has not been the greatest road team straight up by any stretch, but recently, with experience they've been winning games straight up at home and hanging close on the road for that matter.

I have Cal losing this game by 10 points.

There is something to be said about a team that beat Oregon at home by 2 and beat Oregon State by 4.

This team did hang within 8 of Washington and hung in against Washington State for the most part. Keep in mind that this team had beaten Washington at home earlier in the year, beaten Stanford at home earlier in the year and that's why Stanford pounded them at Cal, destroyed Kansas State, Hawaii and Santa Clara earlier in the year.

This line is jacked up in part due to UCLA's rout over Arizona but who isn't beating Arizona these days? Losers of their last 8 of 13 if I'm not mistaken, but that does say something about the Pac-10.

This game has Arizona State vs. UCLA written over it in many contexts and I see the Golden Bears hanging tough and losing by 10 tonight.

This team is w/out Jordan Wilkes I am am aware but they've been without him for quite sometime and at least since the USC game from what I can tell.

Trends in my favor:

The Bears are 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games and the Bruins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games in this series.

Wofford/Georgia Southern Under 143.5 (2 units) - still rising so waiting.

I had given up on totals for a while but let me ride this one and see if it is worth my time. I picked the last 4 totals of ballgames with success, so you have idea what it's like to have a lean on nearly on 5 totals a day and not play them. If you notice, I don't play overs for totals and typically just play unders. In essence, I will make the teams do something to beat me kind of mentality.

Want ot hear my overly exciting write-up for this?

The last time these 2 teams met, there was a 161 points scored back on January 8th.

The difference this time?

I've noticed that Georgia Southern games on the road have been going under often. I especially noticed this in the Furman game and told myself that if this line was over 138 I'd look at it and if it was over 140, I'd play it, and to my pleasant suprise it is at least 143 and continues to rise as it is 144 at some books right now.

I lean Wofford, but have an odd feeling as the line goes down yet it opened at -3.5 and most of the public is on Wofford. Not going to think too hard about it, but I do know this:

Georgia Southern is 6-0 to the under as a road underdog. They are 6-0 to the underdog when they play a team with a winning record at home not to mention being under their last 5 road games.

The Terriers (Wofford) are to the under 5-1 in their last 6 games following a straight up loss - meaning they play better defense after a tough loss and when being favored by 5 or under, the game has gone under 4 of the last 5 meaning that in tight ball games, they hang tough and play some good defense.

In short, I think Southern can win this game outright, which means they need to play some D, but more importantly, I think the winner will hit the high 60's and the loser the mid 60's or at worst like a 73-67 type of score and this baby goes under.

[GOLDENGREEK]

Boston Celtics +8 (2 units) - As always, waiting to get the best line so please holler' if and when you see a better line.

I just don't see why the Celtics get no love.

I'll show the Celtics some love today despite the fact that others won't.

This team plays their heart out every game as comapred to some of the lazy bums out there on the NBA court that just don't give a care.

I like this play for 2 reasons.

One, the Lakers blow right now and shouldn't be laying points to anyone much like the Trailblazers which I was on the other day.

Furthermore, the Celtics actually have been playing teams very closely and there is a reason why this line isn't +10.5 as the Blazers were, b/c too many people will tag along on the underdog train I think and this is the perfect trap laid by Vegas as you ready for this - Boston could win this game outright.

Sure, I could have egg on my face and they could get blown out, but I highly doubt it.

The Celtics lost to this team by 13 at home back in January. But since then, they have played much better basketball. I don't care if people think I'm crazy, but I like this team b/c they have heart.

Did you know the Celtics have covered their last 4 ballgames. They lost to Phoenix by just 10 points and stayed with them the whole game for the most part and Phoenix played them healthy with Nash.

This team put up 108 in that game and 36 at one point in that game and barring a horrible 20 point 2nd quarter, they would have been even closer.

This taem lost by 3 at Sac, beat the Bucks at home a much needed win in a blowout fashion to end their drought, lost to Minny by 2 on the road and lost to Detroit and the Pacers by just 7 on the road.

Trends in Favor:

Celtics are 8-0 ATS when facing a team on the road with a home winning record. Meaning that the lines are jacked when they hit the road and they cover these ballgames such as the Suns game.

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 ballgames as a home favorite and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

2 Teams going different directions, I'll take the Celtics despite the fact you might think I'm crazy - lol.

As a side note, this just in, Lamar Odom is overrated.

New Orleans Hornets -4.5: 2 units

The Hornets do very well in revenge situations such as the Kings game a while back at home.

I like betting on coaches as much as teams and I love betting on Coach Nate of Portland and Coach Scott of the Hornets. First of all, it's nice to see some African-American coaches in the league getting some credit as these guys are great coaches and preach defense over and over again.

The Hornets are 8th in the league in defense allowing just under 95 points a ballgame and 4th in the league in rebounding.

Why is this important?

Because they play the Sonics who are a scoring threat always but with strong defense, they do not do as well and rebounding becomes critical in a game that is expected to see a lot of shots go up as most Seattle games are.

Seattle has won the last 2 times out between these two teams, and NBA teams, especially competent ones rarley let another team win 3 in a row on them as they remember losing to a team twice.

Seattle has won their last 4 of 5. I'll give them credit for that. They beat a Nashless Suns team at home, beat Memphis which is not the greatest of feats, beat Sac at Sac which was a revenge game for them as Sac beat them in a home and home the game before and won a shocker at Indiana.

The Hornets have won their last 7 of 10 and are sound covers at home.

You ready for this trend:

Trends in Favor:

Hornets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 ballgames.

Hornets are 10-2 in their last 12 games against the Western Conference which is a sign their defense does play a factor and influences Western run and gun teams to the detriment.

The Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these ballclubs.


New York Knicks -3 (Taking the hook, think it's important) 2 units

Remember when the Knicks and Bucks played last time what happened?

The Knicks were down 5 at the half, 9 at the break and then made a storming come back only to lose by 2, 10-5-107.

I think they get off on the right foot fast today as they had a bad loss in Philly and will look to rebound quickly.

The Knicks have been unstoppable at home, as are you read for this stat, they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games and 6-0 ATS following a ATS loss such as the Sixers game which was a dissappointment.

The Knicks get back on track as their not that far off from the playoffs and each game is important in paritcular against teams that are weak such as the Bucks which are almost must win games if they want to make the post-season.

[astro]

CALIFORNIA +6 (3 Units) - 1st Half - 8pm

USC is not blowing anyone out of late and Cal I think learned a lot on the road at UCLA.

Catching 10.5 points here is nice b/c I think Cal keeps it within single digits.

Cal faced off against USC last time out at home earlier this year and lost by 3 points 73 to 76.

With the tough loss to UCLA in mind and the tough loss to USC earlier this year, I think Cal gets off to a fast start and then much like the UCLA game, this USC team comes roaring back. The cover, I can see them coming back to hit the cover in the 2nd half but dont' want to take my chances so I'm rolling with the team in the first half.

Cal hung in there against Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State and Arizona all on the road. This is not a bad team as seen by their win against Oregon at home and their strong start against UCLA on the road.

I think Cal either leads at the half or is within 6 points and gets off to a fast start before a pending collapse in the 2nd half.

FEBRUARY 24TH TOP PLAYS

ST.BONNY/DUQUESNE Under 188 (3 Units) - 7pm

All this talk about the over, and I'm going to ride the over.

I've capped this game well and I got burned last time, but I'll be darned if I get burned this time.

I just think that this game ends up much like St. Bonny vs. Rhode Island in which this game totaled 167 in which Rhode Island hit roughly 90 and St. Bonny will hit 80 and consequently this game hits at 170 rather than the 188 right now.

It's not that I don't think this will be high scoring, it's just that I just don't trust St. Bonny's to score as much as people expect them to.

This team just does not put up too many points on the road, as they put up 61 put points at Richmond, a top 300 team and one of the worst teams in the nation, pt up 61 at Fordham, put up 70 at Temple and even that game totaled at 179 as Temple loaded up 109 on the board, and only put up 44 at Umass.

Thus, where is all this love for the over?

I don't think St. Bonny hits over 70 and consequently, the Dukes can hit up to 117, if they'd like, but I don't see this game going over.

This will be sweet payback for me hitting the under this time after getting burned last time. They might have scored a lot last time, but St. Bonny does not shoot well on the road, and much like the Southern/Wofford game that went well over last time and then went well under that I was on, I expect this to repeat today.


EASTERN ILLINIOS +8 (3 Units) - taking a half a point - 3pm

Why is Samford laying points to anyone I would never understand.

Samford has lost 5 straight ballgames and this team is strictly running on its reputation with respect to this line.

This team even lost to SEMissouri State as a 9 point favorite outright even when SE Missouri State was banged up entering this game.

Before that, this team lost to Evansville at home, Morehead State on the road, Eastern Kentucky on the road by scoring a massive 28 points and Austin Peay at home as well in a tight ball game.

Eastern Illinois is a relatively unknown team but they do have talent.

They have won their last 3 of 4 ballgames and won at Jacksonville State, which many in the conference have not been able to do, beat SEMissouri State at home, the team that Samford lost to at home and Tennessee-Martin.

This team lost to Samford by 5 the last time out and I expect them to get their revenge today.

The Road team is 4-1 ATS in this series meaning that the underdog typically pervails because the contests between these two teams are typically close.

The Bulldogs have missed the cover the last 5 ballgames and Eastern Illinois is 5-1 ATS when facing a spread of 7 to 12 points as a road underdog.

The Bulldogs are also 1-4 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage below .400%.

I think Eastern Illinois can win this game outright and for that reason I am playing this game, besides, the total is 111 at most places and 8 points is more than worth it to take in what should be a low-scoring game.


OLE MISS -2 (3 Units) - 7pm

The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two ballclubs.

The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in South Carolina.

Finally, the Rebels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 ballgames in the SEC.

I think South Carolina is overrated and I simply think Ole Miss is the better team with Sanders, Curtis, Parnell and Doyne. Each one of these guys could score double-digits as they did in their last game rout over Georgia when I rode this team and I will ride them again as besides Tre, this Gamecock team just cannot keep up scoring with the rebels.

Ole Miss is averaging a full 10 points more per ballgame and they are simply better than South Carolina as the Gamecocks trouble finding offense and finishing ballgames, just look at the Auburn game for example, this team goes down to Auburn and Georgia at home while Ole Miss makes easy work of both teams one at home and whooping some major tail at Auburn.

[astro]

FEBRUARY 25TH TOP PLAYS:

I have to get away from forcing 3 plays when I just enjoy 2 games such as today. So here goes fellas, game times are at 1pm and 2pm respectively for both of these games and write-ups will be short as I have midterms coming up next week and need to head out. However, I might add 1 more depending on the magic line movement, as it is changing very fast as a lot of late money coming in on Orlando. Hmm....

Pistons -6 (3 units)

Pistons have revenge from losing to this team back in January and nearly lost to the Magic on the road despite the Magic having revenge and that game was a look ahead to this game.

The Bulls are horrible road covers and have been terrible road covers all year as they and I think it continues today.

The favorite is 19-6 last 25 games in this series and the Pistons have every reason to pummel their conference opponent. No bad line movements working against this play in either way and I think the Pistons can win handily at home by double-digits.

Fairfield -3 (3 units)

I've enjoyed wagering on Fairfield all year and they haven't let me down yet, so I will continue to ride them.

Fairfield is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.

They have won at Canisius, Loyola Maryland and Siena on the road, all better teams and by a greater margin that this spread.

Disclaimer: St. Peter took Rider to the wire and lost by just 1 point who is similarly ranked by Fairfield is far better than this team.

St. Peters are just 2-16-2 ATS in their last 20 ballgames as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 and are 2-18-3 ATS in their last 23 games as a home underdog.

The Stags are 5-0-2 when facing a team with a straight up losing record and the favorite, who is expected to win, is 7-2-3 in the last 12 meetings.

Taking the Magic pk - they are due for a big game at home and the tough loss to the Pistons will serve them well. A movement of 3 points is quiet a lot and it's worth it to take a shot. 3 units.

[MB17]

God Bless Greek for not posting his plays yesterday!!

[astro]

Fellas, it's been 5 and a half months and I went into this month having banked over 10 grand in 5 months - which translated into 42 units. This month I went against what I have always done with one game a day and now find myself down 19 units and juice, essentially 20 units.

So that leaves me up roughly 22 units for the year or $5500. I have made over 670 plays and still have hit over 61% over the last year and a half. However, some things have changed this month and I think it's in part to the fact that I post my record on a daily basis.

There are people that simply tail blindly and expect this to their cheap revenue of some kind and when I miss a play, it seems like all hell beaks. This needs to change and in part, it's because of the way that I post my records, I think people expect a result and that's not the perception I want to give. I did it to show that money-management and one play a day can lead to success. Lol, yet, I succomb to the temptation after winning consistently and I became a victim of what I try to avoid. lol.Find it a bit ironic.

This puts more pressure on me to produce results, make more plays and carry a heavier load than I care with all of my other responsibilities to school and family. This has become no longer fun because of that reason, and I think that affects your pick if you're not having fun as I'm trying for numbers (despite being for charity) rather than for fun. So, although I detail all my wagers to learn from it, I won't post the record or the titles and so on as that is part of the problem, also increasing the units due to winning consistently and changing what has worked has been a problem too.

I have to go back to what has always worked. All wagers will simply be one unit, no more 2 unit or 3 unit wagers, just one unit like it had always been. I prayed to the gambling gods that if Fairfield did not lose then I would bet one game a day when they were down at the half, and Lord behold, they didn't lose - they pushed, but didn't lose. Call it silly or superstitious but I think it's a sign over the last 2 days picking more than 1 game a day was the wrong thing to do.

So, I'll simply post my favorite play of the day and my other favorite plays or honorable mentions which I would have liked to have played, but did not due to limiting myself and sticking to what I am familiar with.

One game a day. I'll still post college analysis and line talks at night as it is a study break for me, helps me organize my thoughts and I enjoy talking about spreads. None of that changes, just one game a day and unit a day, it just makes me feel far more relieved and this gets back to being fun and less time consuming as more plays takes more time obviously and its forcing action on my end.

To the haters, I am not going anywhere and I hope you go fuck yourself.

Besides, the summer is approaching and 82 days till the WNBA -.

With that said:

February 26th's Favorite Play:

Honorable Mentions: Liked Gtown, Raptors, Long Bach State and the Bulls a good bit as well.

Duquesne +10 (Line is moving so wait to see if I can get something better)

A strong hunch here that the Dukes lose but lose in a tight ballgame within
the cover.

This team can flat out score as they chuck up shot after shot and run more than any herd out there. With the new system that the Dukes coach has in play, 5 men in launching shots, they take a break and get substituted for another set of 5 men who continue to launch shots.

Akron is a great team but they have absolutely no motivation whatsoever heading into this game.

The Dukes on the other hand are closing out a season filled with tumultuous trials and tribulations yet, they have overcome many of these obstacles to have a respectable year. After all, their coach fought through great illness, then came back and instituted a new offense in the beginning of the new Umass game and they covered with great ease at first only to get burned of late.

The Dukes at one point had defeated Xavier, Temple and Dayton at home but their loss by 24 to Rhode Island worries me a bit. But then again, Rhode Island is a run and gun team as well while Akron is not.

Besides the Rhod Island game, the Dukes have played well including those wins I mentioned above against 3 top 100 teams at home but then has faltered on the road and at home to good and bad teams alike, but by no more than 10 points to any one of them.

So, besides the Rhode Island game, this team has not lost by double-digits to any team in the last 10 games. So, 9 of the 10 games this team has played with their new offense, have led to either wins or single-digit losses.

I think its unlikely that Duquesne gets blown out in their last home game as the game after this is on the road at George Washington.

The Zips have been terrible road covers this year and of late going 4-10 ATS
in their last 4 games and 3-10 ATS as a favorite on the road.

Akron is a top 100 team and they played a similar team in Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan who are both low 200 ranked teams and won by 7 at home and 10 on the road against E.Michigan. Combine that with the fact that these two teams haven't met since 2005, makes for relatively uknown matchups as it is a non-conference games and Duquesne does well in non-confeence play.

The Dukes are playing great basketball in non-conference games as they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference ballgames and a solid 14-3 ATS when playing teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600%.

In fact, the Dukes are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.

Akron is a solid team but once again, they have lost on the road their last 2 ballgames and failed to cover their other ballgame against Eastern Michigan as a 12.5 favorite.

I think the Dukes hang tough in their final home game and if I can get it at 10.5, I will, or I will just ride the 10.

If you see it at 10, please let me know.

There you go, just one a day and one unit a day, I feel like a load has been taken off me. lol.

Take care fellas,
IC

[astro]

Lost the last 3 days so tread lightly folks

I want to mention something. People come and go on this site often, but the important thing is to provide useful information to fellow posters in the hopes to foster discussion so we can all make more informed wagers.

Midterms today and tomorrow so I'll just put up my thoughts and the play and won't be back till much later tonight.

February 27th's Play:

Michigan +1.5

I like this play for several reasons today.

First of all, this is not Michigan's final home game as Ohio State is but Michigan desperately needs a big win and I think they get it against a Michigan State team that has not played well on the road whatsoever.

Michigan is 16-2 at home first of all and they are considered a top 50 teams in some polls and a top 75 in some polls, but I have them as a top 70 team.

This team is 7-0 against teams that are 200 or worse, 8-0 against teams that are ranked 100 or worse and 3-0 against teams ranked top 25 to 50 teams but finally they are 1-1 against top 25 teams at home.

This is a stark contrast to a team that is 3-8 on the road but all their 11 road games have come against top 200 teams as this team went 0-8 against teams in the top 100 on the road but 3-0 against teams on the road who are ranked between 100-200.

I'll tap into Michigan State before concluding this.

Michigan State just cannot score on the road and is horrible on the road. State is 18-1 at home but I have them as winning just 1 game on the road worth of any significance and that is against Penn State when this team beat Penn State handily.

However, Michigan State has lost to top 50 Purdue by 24 points scoring just 38 points on the road, granted they hung in for the most part and then just collapsed in the 2nd half. Lost to Illinois by 7 and Ohio State by 2 points, lost to Indiana by 22, Iowa by 2 and Boston College by 7.

Now, Michigan State has gotten better as games have progressed on the road, or at least that's what we thought after the Ohio State game only to get destroyed by Purdue on the road.

Another reason this play is appealing is that the public is 2/3rds on Michigan State to win and it's a decent fade on the public here. Michigan has shown that they can win big games at home including defeating a very good Indiana team that not many expected and thus got revenge on Indiana, beat Minnesotta by a bucket at home, but showed that they are considerably better and not a fluke by going on the road and beating them by double-digits (11), beat Purdue at home by 16, they too destroyed Penn State by 20 and beat Illinios by 10.

So, the question that I asked to myself is, if Michigan can get revenge against Indiana off a road loss at home, can get revenge against Purdue from a road loss at home - can they not get revenge against a Michigan State team?

This team lost to Michigan State by 15 - seems like a lot right. But this team also lost on the road and also lost to Indiana and Purdue by 15 and 14 only to come back home and beat Purdue by 16 and Indiana by 3.

Michigan State is no where near the road team that Indiana is nor are they near the road team of Illinois for that matter and this is no Penn State team to beat up on.

Let's not forget the last 2 times these two teams have played Michigan State has won at home, and now Michigan hosts them and will look for a big win here. I think the wrong team is favored here frankly and the public is being taken for a joy ride by Vegas as Michigan State cannot be trusted to score on the road and I don't have to tell you the tradition in the Big 10 when it comes to home teams constantly winning su in this conference - even more than others.

Michigan State has some solid trendsin their favor, but here is a few in favor of Michigan:

Michigan is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog and 8-3-1 ATS when facing a team with a losing road record at home.

So, in recap:

Michigan State has not played well on the road this year due to lack of scoring and winning straight up games which is what they're being asked to do. Michigan has already shown twice they have defeated Indiana and Purdue on revnege at home - two teams that are better than Michigan State on the road and the play is a bit of a public fade as most of them believe in the spartans who I think are getting too much respect here.

Some honorable mentions for the day include Air Force with revenge over byu to cover and west virginia to hang in with their 3 point shooting.

I can't wait till' the tourney and let's not forget 81 days till' the wnba opening tip.

Good luck fellas, off to study till' my exam.