Indian Cowboy Plays

[GOLDENGREEK]

FEBRUARY 10TH TOP PLAY

Dartmouth +11.5 - 2 Units

Honorable Mention: Michigan over Minny (I have it at 17)

I've thought about this over and over a good bit, and I finally decided on Dartmouth rather than Minnesota.

The total in this game is 102, I can't ignore that and the fact that 11.5 points are being given on this total, which is roughly 10% of the game much like Harvard yesterday but in fact a bit better.

Why is this total this high?

A couple of reasons with one being Dartmouth's record, their relative unattractiveness to betters typicall as compared to Princeton which is more of an attractive team historically to bet on, it is Satuday so the faves are jacked up typically and yesterday's ATS loss by Dartmough when they got beat by 20.

Well, Princeton is no Penn State and they can't put up that many points b/c if you remember, Dartmouth hung in for the most part and today, I think they will play their heart out to make up for yesterday and then some.

Historically, these two teams always play close games:

PRINC 63 - DART 60 (-3)
DART 49 - PRINC 52 (-3)
PRINC 65 - DART 54 (11)
DART 50 - PRINC 42 (-8)
DART 59 - PRINC 64 (-5)
PRINC 61 - DART 45 (16)
DART 60 - PRINC 70 (10)
PRINC 57 - DART 52 (5)
PRINC 79 - DART 68 (11)
DART 46 - PRINC 57 (11)

What does this mean?

Dartmouth would have covered this spread 9 out of the last 10 games these two teams would have played, and of course, you know the oddsmakers known this and hence, a 11.5 spread.

So, tack on revenge here, Dartmouth off a loss, Princeton off a Double-OT win and might be a bit tired, I think Dartmouth loses by 5 today by 56-51.

Hence, another underdog that could possibly win outright.

Besides, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games in this series, Princeton is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 games and they are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 Ivy League ballgames.

Finally, the Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Dartmouth Big Green are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Princeton.

So, in recap, revenge, the point spread percentage differential, the historic background of this series, the underdog and road team typically covers, princeton's lack of covering of late, princeton's double-ot win could be tired and finally Dartmouth coming off a tough loss and Princeton shouldn't be laying this many points to another competitive Ivy team.

If Dartmouth loses, then they lose by 14 with free throws late, but again, I feel they lose by 5 - (51-56).

Take care fellas,
IC
__________________
Indiancowboy

[BigWeiner]

Thanks for posting this guy's plays, I always like his logic. Go Dart Mouth +11.5

[GOLDENGREEK]

staight up winner!!

[GOLDENGREEK]

Dude Starting To Heat Up

[GrandPa]

SU wunner as 11 point pup. Nuttin wrong with that!

[GOLDENGREEK]

HOPE HE LOSES THIS ONE BECAUSE THERE ARE ALOT OF PEOPLE ON THE BOARD WITH THE OVER IN THIS ONE

.

FEBRUARY 11TH TOP PLAY ---2UNITS

Rhode Island/Duquesne Under 178.5 - The line continues to rise so waiting to get the best line or will settle for this

No, I'm not crazy.

But, I thought about this and I do like Umass a good bit today, but laid off as I will take this total. Lord knows this another total and I've been moosed ever so nicely with all totals, but each game is a new game and each total is a new total.

In fact, I have resorted to this total as I really don't like any of the sides today although do like the Clippers a bit in the NBA and the Bulls/Suns line has dropped so much that I don't like the value there anymore depending on Nash's status.

Let's get back to this line - the line opened up at 169 and has moved a full 10 points.

That's a lot of movement on the line to say the least. But you know what? I think the game ends somewhere around 90-75 as regardless of the outcome of this game, I like the under.

Follow me here:

If Rhode Island wins - by the way the movement is going in favor of Rhode Island so I wouldn't be suprised if Rhode Island won this game today, as Rhode Island is a very good team that could pull of the upset.

However, the fact they are a top 125 team knows that they will come into this game with a defensive plan and won't simply lay down and have a shoot out with Duquesne.

After all, this team has all the following points - speaking of Rhode Island - on the road - 45 against Fordham, 55 at Umass and totals of 160 against George Washington, 147 against Umass and 167 against St. Bonny.

Furthermore, whenever a public hounds a game or a team, we know how it works out, it busts. The public is all over this over and this is mainly a fade play as well as if everyone's mother and ancestry is behind a play, it fails.

Well, this total is essentially an NBA total now it is so huge. No, I don't have any trends in my favor as this is a hunch but sometimes that's what it's about, going with a hunch and the fact that when a total is this high - an NBA total where it takes 4 quarters to achieve, this is 2 halves, albeit 20 minute halves to achieve this total.

In short, if Rhode Island has any chance to stay in this ball game, it will be via their defense and only through their defense. If Duquesne wins this game, then it will be that Rhode Island could not keep up offensively in a 86-70 format and quite possibly this game goes under b/c Rhode Island does not have the offensive powerhouse.

So, they will look to slow it down a bit in this ballgame. If Rhode Island does win this ball game, I can't expect them to play the same ballgame style as Duquesne and it will be a 84-80 final for Rhode Island.

Either way, for all of these circumstances, the only one that works against me is if Rhode Island goes toe to toe with Duquesne and loses - and even if tha that happens, this team is a top 100 team that will have a gameplan to put a stop to Duquesne or at least give them different looks.

Is this ballsy sure, but then again, each day is different and it presents new opportunities, so I'll roll with my under as I will make a team shoot lights out to beat me - in fact, make both teams to shoot lights out which is hard to do.

By the way, choosing this total is different as I didn't like any of the sides and then resorted to the total which makes me feel at ease with the total, would have rode FSU but saw an injury to a fella who was scoring double-digits so I laid off.

Under 178.5

[TMAC951]

Well ya got your wish because Rhode Island got way over half that themselves scoring 111 lol.. Nice hit for everyone that was on the over!! I took Rhode Island +2.5 so im happy as well!

[GOLDENGREEK]

2 Plays Today - Both in the Southern Conference - a Tribute to the Southern Conference of sorts. .

Davidson - (2 Units) (Pk) - Please wait for the best line. Although I think line will rise

This play is similar to the power play on Wright State over Illinois-Chicago. This game is going to be extremely close.

However, Davidson is a top 50 team in the nation and is 11-0 against teams outside the top 100. How often do you get a team that is 7th in the offense scoring at a PK against another team in a conference such as the Southern.

No, that was not a misprint as Davidson is ranked 7th in the nation in total offense at 81.9 points a ballgame. Half the reason why is this team is 14th in the nation in free throws - even better than Furman at a remarkable at 75.2% and 3rd in the nation in rebounding which helps out in making sure opponents don't get too many 2nd chance opportunities;

How good is C of C? They're good as they are 16-8 and 10-1 at home which explains why the line is at a Pk - also this is #2 who is the home team in C of C versus #1 in the conference in Davidson which further explains the Pk.

However, C of C has yet to beat anyone in the top 100 all year. They are 0-7. They lost to Davidson earlier in the year on the road by 7. Do they do far better at home than on the road as far as facing the teams again? In other words, is it likely they get revenge?

Well, they did beat Western Carolina on the road by 7 to then beat them at home by 12. They lost to App State - a similar team to Davidson by 7 at home and by 7 on the road. In fact, I think much of the Southern is like that when considering the better teams in the conference.

Furthermore, the Wildcats (Davidson) is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 ballgames at C of C.

In recap, Davidson is 11-0 when facing teams outside the top 100 and their only 4 losses come to the likes of Michigan, Missouri, Duke and conference leader App State. How can I ignore a team that's only 4 losses comes to those teams and they only lost to Michigan by 10 on the road and Missouri by 6. I'll take Davidson to win by a few points.

Davidson is 12-1 in conference by the way - only loss - App State.

Furman - 2 Units (-6.5) - Please wait for the best line. Although I think line will rise.

Some basics, Georgia Southern is horrible right now.

Although ranked in the top 250, this team has been playing like a team ranked in the top 275 lately which is bad to do considering there are so many bad teams out there competing for that status.

Southern has lost their last 3 ballgames and 7 of their last 8 with their sole win coming against lowly Elon on the road and that was by a point - 68-67.

In fact, this team has now won 3 ballgames on the road, and their last win on the road before Elon was back on December 2nd - ove 2 months ago when they beat one of the worst teams in the nation in Winston-Salem 59-49 and the other game was Elon as I mentioned reently which ended their road win drought and before that was against my alma mater at Mercer, a game that I saw that the Bears could now defeat Southern if they played them again - Hell, I mascoted for between the 10 minute mark in the 1st half of that game.

Do you know GaSouthern have lost the spread 5 of the last 6 games which means they are not meeting the standards of the spread and not meeting expectations. The public still over-values this team a bit and one of the factors that I enjoy about this game is that Southern baet Furman earlier in the year at home by a bucket. Well, Furman gets to return the favor today.

Furman is the 46th best school in the nation in free throws at 73% which is incredibly important as the Dukes game prior to the Rhode Island gaem was an example of. Furman is also the 64th best 3 point shotting team in the nation at 37.7%.

Georgia Southern is the 330th best free throw shooting team in the nation - one of the worst at 59.3% -not even 60% from the line.

Also, Furman made a huge upset by beating conference leader App State at home in OT which shows a lot about their quality of play.

The Eagles are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 confere games while the Paladisn are 4-1 ATS as a small favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points.

Furman beat Western Carolina mind you by 12 points at home while Southern lost by that margin on the road to W.Carolina - keep in mind Furman faced the same spread in that game of -6 as they do in this game.

Georgia Southern only has been having trouble scoring points on the road popping 57 at Western Carolina, Chattanooga and even a 55 against App State at home (they lost by 20 at home) after being routed in the first half 41-25 whereas Furman lost 63-77 on the road to App State after being up 37-35 on the road - after the first half against the conference leader.

Predicted Score: 69-56 Furman.

[BigWeiner]

I like both plays, Furman more

[Dat Boi E]

sounds good to me!

[GOLDENGREEK]

17-17 SINCE POSTING HERE

FEBRUARY 13TH TOP PLAY:

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS -1 (2 Units)


The college card looks decent fellas, especially an honorable mention on Ohio but Akron does have the revenge and are 9-2-1 when facing a spread of 7-12 points at home and the Bobcats are are 1-4-1 ATS against Akron so I laid off.

So, that leaves me to go with the Hornets today in pro basketball.

Did you know the Hornets are 24-27 this year? Why is that such a big deal, well, let's just say this team wasn't even thinking playoffs early on in the year and much like last year they have made a great push to the playoffs.

Who can this be attributed two - 2 guys, Chris Paul the point guard and Coach Scott who makes these guys play something that many teams don't play in the NBA - Defense.

You've got to love a team that plays defense and that's what they'll need against Memphis who are the new junior Phoenix Suns with their style of play.

The Hornets have won their last 8 out of 10 games and 12 out of 17. Suprised? Don't be, as they've beat some of the cream of the crop during the run.

First of all, they just defeated Memphis at home by a score of 114-99 to show that they too can run and gun with them. They also defeated Milwaukee at home by a margin of 8 during overtime, beat Denver at Denver in OT, lost to Sacremento on the road in a game that was revenge for Sac, beat Houston at Houston which very few teams can accomplish at this time by 13 in fact, defeated Minny at home by 7 - a game that I was on, lost to the Sixers at home in a bad spot, defeated Portland at home by 12, beat the Utah Jazz - yes, the Jazz by 9 at home and beat Sac by 4 at home - another game that I was on.

Wagering is about finding good teams, laying money on them in good spots.

Yes, the Grizzlies have revenge and they just lost part 1 of the home and home - as now they play the Hornets directly after losing to them on the 10th.

But, I'm going to overlook that b/c these Hornets need every game possible to continue striving for the playoffs, something they missed last year.

The Grizzlies are also horrible if I forgot to mention, they lost to the Blazers outright at home while at the same time, they played the Mavs very close, but then lose to the Rockets at home as well - the team that the Hornets beat on the road.

I want you to notice the attack of the Hornets too - just last game as they spread the ball around and they play hard - on both ends of the court for their coach as these guys really believe in themselves, while the Grizzlies are simply too young right now.

G Brown, Devin
26:34 11 points
G Paul, Chris
34:02 23 points
F West, David
31:58 22 points
F Mason, Desmond
32:48 16 points
C Chandler, Tyson
34:02 15 points

That is a well-planned attack and Coach Scott - give him some props - an ex-player that knows how to coach spreads the minutes around as he's got fresh legs.

So, in recap, the Hornets are the better team, I'm ignoring the home and home revenge as the Hornets need every game, the Hornets have won tougher games and have won their last 8 of 10, the Hornets are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games in the Western Conference, the Hornets are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games and the Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 ballgames.

This is a conference game and the Hornets will show up once again.

Take care fellas, this is what I have on my card today.
__________________

[tash]

YESTERDAY-HE actually went 2-1...he added Wofford to his plays...fyi

[GOLDENGREEK]

FEBRUARY 14TH TOP PLAYS:

DUQUESNE -1.5 (3 Units)


Are you serious? Let's start with the basics - Duquesne is 13-5 ATS.

Richmond has won this game in this series the past 10 years, which would explain in part for the line. In fact, that might be the only thing that explains the line.

I was on Duquesne a while back first and have been on them since as far as sides have been concerned. While they put up a storm of scoring, our Richmond friends put up a stellar 59 points and change a game in scoring.

These are 2 different quality of teams, plain and simple.

While the Dukes go on the road to defeat La Salle by 6, Richmond loses to La Salle by 23 on the road.

While the Dukes beat Dayton by 4 on the road, Richmond loses to Dayton by 18 on the road and fail to cover the 11.5 spread.

While the Dukes beat Temple by 4 at home with their new style of offense, Richmond loses by 21 at home.

The Dukes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and 10-1 ATS in their last 10 ballgames overall if you can believe it and not to mention 6-1 ATS in their last 7 ballgames within the Atlantic-10 which shows they are playing great conference ball.

This is still a conference game for the Dukes and for conference standing and they are trying to stop at least a 10 straight SU win streak for Richmond going into this game.

The Spiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-4 ATS in thier last 5 as an underdog.

Can you blame me for riding this pick and now wanting to go without it?

Dukies by 12.


FLORIDA ATLANTIC +14.5 (2.5 Units)
The line opened at 15 and quickly dropped down to 14.5 and I'm willing to bet that by gametime this will be around 14 and even 13.5 at some places.

Why?

Because Florida Altantic is very similar to the UL-Monroe team that went on the road to lose by 7 in a 13.5 spread. This spread is similar yet again at a 14.5 spread and I've already written in a previous write-up how Western Kentucky is completely getting the shaft since the beginning of the year.

If this line was anything in the double-digits, it was a 2 unit play but when I saw it at 14.5, I nearly had a semi-orgasm, so I made it into a 3 unit play at this line.

I know Florida Atlantic has a losing overall record at 12-14, but did you know they have won their last 4 of their last 6.

In fact, their results mimick that of UL-Monroe and that of Western Kentucky for that matter and there is not that much difference between these two teams besides perception.

Will Western Kentucky win? Yes. But barely jus tlike the UL-Monroe game.

Flatlantic beat Flint by 8 in their last game at home, WKy beat them by 12 at home as well.

Flatlantic lost to Arkansas State by 7 on the road, Western Kentucky lost by 1.

Flatlantic beat Ul-Monroe by 11 at home compared to Western Kentucky's 7 at home.

Flatlatnic beat Arkansas LR by 4 at home and beat LouLafayette by 3 at home whereas Western Kentucky lost to Arkansas LR by 2 on the road and 10 at home.

The reason why this is a 2.5 point play is because I can't explain a Denver game they played while back for Florida Atlantic as they lost by 5 on the road while Western Kentucky won by 10 on the road. However, since that game, this team has then gone on to win the 4 of their 6 and provide the stats I gave you above so I will take my chances.

This is a conference game and I don't see the Hilltoppers running away from it. There is strong trend evidence as well including the Owls are 4-0 ATS of late in conference play, the Hilltoppers are 0-8ATS after a Straight up win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 ball games overall.

Not a 3 unit play, but I do like this wager very much.

Now, do you see why I could not go without this play?


SETON HALL +10.5 (1.5 Units)

I don't know why anyone would put money on Uconn. This team is young, overrated and mistake-prone more than any other team in the Big East at times.

Why should Uconn gives this many points to anyone? You can tell the linesman adjusted the lines b/c for Rutgers the line was easy 16.5 and for this game they knocked it down 5 points.

Guess what?

I'm still fading Uconn.

Take out the 11 point win against Rutgers as that was in OT and complete bs how they went to the line for 11 free throws and therefore that margin of victory is skewed.

Seton Hall is every bit as good as Rutgers and in my book they are the same although in the pr rankings they are about 40 spots higher.

Nonetheless, I would have liked a 14.5 line but hey, anything in the double-digits was getting a play of 2.5 units from me.

I"ve already asked you to take out the 11 point victory over Rutgers in OT as that is an exception and highly unlikely to occur again. Uconn has not beaten any conference opponent this year by that margin - what makes you think they will beat the Hall by that margin?

Uconn is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 in the Big East, 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 7 to 12 points at home and 0-4 ATS against a team with a losing record - which means they are not covering the big home spreads when expected to. Seton hall doesn't have trends favoring them, but at the same time, this is a fade on Uconn similar to the Rutgers game.

If the Hall can beat Providence and lose to NDame by 12 on the road, I think they can lose to Uconn by 8 on the road.

Uconn by 6-8 points.

Do you blame for me this pick and now wanting to let go of it?


MANHATTAN +10 (1.5 Units)

This to me is very similar to the Seton Hall game as Marist does not deserve this much respect given the results of these teams and I'm all about the revenge factor, but 10 points is a bit too much and you saw what happened to Va tech vs. UNC - revenge is not always exacted on a team - even when they are as good as UNC they don't exact it.

Marist has been getting the complete shaft of late going 1-7 ATS in their last 8 ballgames from the oddsmakers while Manhattan has been a road warrior of a cover at 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games and 7-2 ATS in the head to head meetings between these two teams.

Manhattan has covered 3 out 4 of these series and including the 1 point win by a score of 75-74 back on January 30th.

Sure, that loss is fresh on Marists's mind but at the same time, Manhattan's back to back losses are fresh on their minds.

They lost by a bucket to a good playing Niagara team (who won another Maac game by beating Canisius yesterday) and 7 points to Rider on the road, who Marist lost to by 8 but beat Rider by 1 point on the road.

In fact, those are not the only two identical score differentials these two teams have:

Manhattan beats St. Pete by 7 at home, Marist by 9 at home.

Manhattan loses to Canisius by 3 at home, St Pete by 10 on the road.

Manhattan beats Loyola-MD by a bucket on the road, Marist by 5 at home.

Manhattan gets downed in this game but by 4-6 pionts in my book as theie free throw shooting is suspect at times, but I've got to ride them here with double-digits - as that is tough to give up on.

Since January 2nd, Manhattan has not lost 3 ballgames in a row and that was before conference play so I although I think they will drop their 3rd conference game in a row tonight, they will attempt not to and will fall just short but within 10. I have the Jaspers losing by 6.

Now do you see why I could not let go of this pick?

RICE +7.5 (1.5 Units)

I was hoping this line would rise, but I don't believe it will and I am going to take a half a point on it as well for insurance. Hell, I've got a total of 5 wagers today, why not take .5 point here as Thursday's/Friday's Card will be light on my end especially if today is a strong day.

Rice can go toe to toe with UAB and I have them falling short by a bucket, just a bucket and I can't get off this team either. I have capped it every which way and how can I not take these points with a team that is 13-10 and in fact ahead of UAB in the conference standings.

Why the line? Public perception.

Rice went on the road to beat SMU by 3 recently, the same team that UAB lost by 4 to at home.

Rice beat East Carolina by 11 at home while UAB defeated them by 16 at home.

Rice defeated Utep by 6 at home while UAB lost to them by 13 on the road.

However, Rice lost handily to Tulane by 20 on the road while UAB defeated them by 7 which eplains the 1.5 unit of the play.

However, Rice also beat Southern Miss by 15 at home while UAB lost to Southern Miss in overtime.

What does all this mean?

None of these teams can be trusted especially with a spread of 7 and 7.5 with a hook in my book as all of their offenses simply blow.

Rice is averaging a full 5 points higher and shoots 71% from the line which is around the top 90 in the nation while UAB shoots at a 61% clip which is 324th in the nation. This game will come down to free throws and will be an ugly game but I think Rice goes down by a bucket by around 54-52 but who knows they could pull the outright win.

Look for Almond to have a huge game for Rice as he typically does.

The Owls are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 24-8-2 in their last 34 conference USA Games.

UAB is 2-5 ATS of late and 2-5 ATS in the conference-usa of late while 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games agains team with a losing road record.

Now do you see why I could not let go of this selection either?


I didn't have to explain why I like the selections and went with 5 picks as I did today, but I'll recap it again.

I've capped Thursday/Friday's card and it will be a light card so today was a great day to make a move. Wednesday and Saturday are the most jam-packed days in colllege ball typically and today was the day to make a move so I did.

What other some reasons I am going with 5 again? Well, it's my money, my call and I have a pretty good idea of what I'm doing and faith in my picks and strategies and it's a long month to await if anything were to go wrong today - . Just a calculated move and this is a good spot for me to make a strong move.

That's my card fellas, best of luck today.
IC

[hitemhard]

he never had this many plays before

[MB17]

rough night