Originally posted by lowrider66
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FEBRUARY 3RD TOP PLAYS
Fellas, I have not lost my mind, but I need you to trust me when I tell you, I have never had a card where the spread was off by 4 points on all each of these games. Now, I wouldn't put this out there in la-la land out in the world, unless I had a strong feeling on all of these games. I typically play 1, yes, but on Saturday's that is my wild card and has been simply because it all depends on value as there are so much and I would be a fool if I let this go. However, I plan on doing just a game tomorrow, but today is Saturday and all bets are on. Each of these are supported by strong evidence so I have to roll with it. I've done my homework and the rest are up to the gambling Gods. lol.
Honorable Mention: #4 Virginia Tech - I think they bounce back huge against BC - heck, they beat Duke on the road and UNC at home - BC is getting too much respect here in my opinion - the line is a bit ridiculous. However, I liked these 5 more. #5 on my list was the University of Washington +8.5 over Arizona - Arizona is just ridiculous, not even top 5 in their conference and shouldn't be laying points and I'm tired of people putting up excuses for them. Hell, I wish I could play both Va Tech and 'Zona but have to lay off as I've never put out more than 3 plays with the recent betting philosophy that I have. #6 was South Carolina b/c my Tide are a horrible home cover and S.Carolina is playing well lately but I sitll want to see if my Tide gets their ears rung by Coach G today so I will lay off that one. Plus, I don't think South Carolina scores enough points for my comfort and they are relatively small
Duquesne +1 (3 Units) - 2pm
I love the Dukes today. This team is getting no respect given how well they have played of late. I made a note last time that I think they upset Xavier and they did but because Xavier dominated St. Bonny's I held off.
Speaking of that, guess who the Dukes play today - St. Bonny's. Duquesne is one of the best playing teams proportionally to their ranking. What does all that hooplah mean? The Dukes are a top 200 team in my book but they are playing at a top 120 level which is a difference of 80 slots and they are continually moving up in the power rankings.
You can tell me all the stories about Duquesne as you want, but just know that this team dominated Xavier, I mean dominated them as the final score is not indicative of the earlier shalacking they gave this team. What worries me is the possible let down but the difference here is too much to bear for me so I have to ride them.
Duquesne has now defeated top 65 Xavie at home, beat top 170 Temple at home by 4, and beat top 100 Dayton at home by 4. During that span, they scored 93, 96 and 93 points which is proof that they can flat out shoot the ball.
How have they done on the road - not bad - not bad at all as they have defeated St. Louis on the road a top 90 team by 10 points and even beat Boston College back on December 28th if you remember that upset by 5 points. Guess how many they scored on BC that day? You guessed it - 98 points.
St. Bonny did beat La Salle at home but La Salle is a fickle team on the road. St. Bonny also beat Richmond on the road, but Richmond is a top 330 team and I wouldn't trust them with my dead beat Dog.
Furthermore, Xavier beat this team by 26 and you ready for this? St. Bonny's 5 wins come against the following teams and their respective power rankings: Alcorn State - top 320, Central Arkansas by 5 a top 280 team, Central Conn by 3 a top 210 team on the road, St. Louis by 5 a top 90 team at home (but the Dukes beat them on the road by 10) and La Salle and Richmond as you know.
So, in short, I get a top 120 team on the road against a top 250 team - should be a great ball game but I like the Dukes.
The Dukes are 8-1 ATS on the road and the Bonnies are 0-5 ATS as small favorites at home. What do we learn from this? The Dukes are good ATS on the road and the Bonnies are horrible small favs at home.
Also, St. Bonny won by a point last year 77-76 at Duquesne, now the Dukes get to return the favor.
Charlotte Bobcats (-3) - Locked in this morning but I think they win by double-digits frankly (3 Units) - 7pm
The Bobcats are in a great spot here today. They just got pounded by the Cavs which is wonderful as they lost by 20 on the road to Cleveland and even better they lost to the Warriors by 26 on that road trip out west when they beat the Lakers and the Nuggets - but got shalacked recently by them.
They are going to come back in a big way today and beat the snot out of the Warriors in my book who come off that nice win against the Sixers but remember this team is a horrible road team as evidenced by their beating they took at the hands of the Hawks.
The Bobcats are a sound home team and combine their horrible game they just had plus the revenge factor and that the Warriors are 0-6 ATS when playing on 0 days rest and finally the Bobcats are 13-3 of late after allowing over a 100 points in their last game, 8-3 ATS as a favorite and typically a very good home favorite and finally the favorite in this series is 4-1 ATS - all Bobcats today in my book.
Pepperdine +10 (1.5 units) (Take the hook if you have to or just wait till' rises) - I am going to wait on this a bit considering how the Duquesne game works out.
Listen, getting Pepperdine here as a double-digit home dog is a gift in my opinion. I was going to wait to see how the Dukes game turned out but I'm going to roll with this as well.
Pepperdine has played so well of late and I am so glad they come off a 20 point loss to Santa Clara. It makes for a great spot here todas they return to their home to step up in a big way to face Gonzaga who they lost by 17 on the road earlier.
However, you think Pepp wasted their time with that loss. Nope, they defeated Loyola Marymound and St. Mary's CA on the road.
They lost to San Fran by 1 at home, lost to San Diego by 4 at home, lost to Manhattan by 2 at home, lost to CS fullerton by 2 at home, lost by 9 to UC Santa Barbara by 9 at home early in the year and even lost to Washington by just 9 on the road in the first game of the season.
In short, this team has never lost by double-digits at home, regardless of the opponent. In my power ranking system, when a team goes on the road to defeat Loyola Maryland and St. Mary's CA - a top 200 and 120 team - they have the capacity to be a top 80 caliber team.
So, a top 80 squares off against a top 30 team like the Zags equals under a 5 point loss or a 5 point differential which means I have to play it as home court and revenge makes up for the 7 point differential given their previous 17 point loss on the road.
I don't think Pepperdine wins but this will be one of those classic Zaga' wins by a bucket or definitely less than 5 points.
That's what I have fellas, had some rounds this morning but best of luck today.
Take care,
IC
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IndiancowboyLast edited by GOLDENGREEK; 02-03-2007, 01:18 PM.
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FEBRUARY 4th TOP PLAY
St. Peters +13.5 -(1.5 Units) although it is +14 at Pinnacle - but that doesn't do me any good -lol.
Couple things, to me any team that has a better than 30% chance of winning is called a live dog.
St. Peters is a live dog - hell, did you think that Iona would be a live dog yesterday against Siena when they lost by a point and nearly won outright as a 16 point underdog?
Now, that could have been a fluke but I don't think so as both of these teams have been playing relatively even of late although their records do not show it.
St. Peters is a top 330 team admittedly and for that reason, this is just a 1.5 unit wager, plus, this is about a bankroll, and there is no reason for me to bust it on Sunday after winning on Saturday - lol, thus, less than 35% of winnings (+4.35 units) go into today - 1.5 units. Remember, it's not who makes the best picks, that's just half the deal, it's also who manages their money.
Back to St. Peters - yes, they are a top 330 team but on the road, they are a top 250 team.
Let me dish out some facts now:
St. Peters loses to Rider by a 1 point at home.
Siena loses to Rider on the road by 6.
St. Peters loses at Fairfield by 8 while Siena loses to Fairfield at home - on Fairfield Revenge by 5 - both equivalent in rankings as 8 on the road and 5 at home is about the same.
St. Peters loses at Marist by 9 while Siena loses at home to Marist by 9 - although i was in OT but regardless, even in power ranking strength.
Now, these have just been the latest games of result and in conference play, this late in the season, the underdog typically has the advantage as they have gotten their acts together by now but their records nor the spreads indicate this.
With a team that is 1-9 on the road, why would you bet on them - it's value and they are playing equitable to Siena right now, granted they could implode, but I'll take the chance they won't for 1.5 units.
Finally, the line is moving in my favor which is important as I've mentioned before when a road dog gets bought down or a home dog gets bought down as it doesn't matter to me if the favorite gets jacked up in the case of Siena vs. Iona yesterday.
The Peacocks are 4-1 ATS as an underdog greater than 13 points or greater &
and Siena is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 13 points or greater.
In review, the Peacocks cover well in-conference against big spreads and they are playing well against similar competition and the Saints are not good home covers with such big spreads.
Besides, the Peacock is the National Bird of India and I don't think it will let me down today - lol.
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*** 11- 12 SINCE POSTING HIS PLAYS AT BC****
FEBRUARY 5TH TOP PLAY:
Going with with 2 totals today - no CBB - thought about Portland but I laid off, both teams in that conference are just to fickle - don't know what to expect.:
1) Golden State/Indiana Under 209.5 - 2 Units
I can't wait for this game simply because of the trade and the animosity that will continue to exist with this team for good time to come. I love Indiana games for the fact that typicall they are a good home cover but more importantly, games in Indy go under b/c unlike other teams they like to play defense.
Yes, quite possibly Golden State will not show up to play defense, but I Don't think so here simply because of the trade, rather than a lot of scoring, I think you will see a lot of physical and tough defense and points will be harder to come by than this total reflects.
In fact, over the last 10 games the highest total that has even been in this series is 205 and that was in Golden State and the highest total in Indiana over the last 10 games has been 199 and not 10 points higher as it sits at 209.5 in most books.
The last time these two teams met the total was 214 in Indiana so I guess that's where this line originates from, but I think Golden State plays enough defense today - after all, that Charlotte game was set at 213 and totaled at 188 and the Philly game only totaled at 203 as well.
The last 5 of 7 in Indiana has gone under and if the Lakers game as well as the Boston game can go under at 179 and 199, I think this game can go under at 209.5.
2) Houston/Twolves Under 181.5 - 2 Units
This game is going to be ugly, nasty and just great defense with 2 half court offenses going.
In fact, the line popped open at 183 but I don't think public got a shot at it till' around 181.5 which sits at both sportsbooks. In fact, I don't this game is going to get over 170 nevertheless 181.5.
Why?
Well, the underdog dominates this game typically as they are 7-2 in thier last 9 games and the t-wolves come off that close loss against the Mavs, a game that I should have been on b/c they always play the Mavs close and even that game totaled at 187.
The under is 9-1 when the Twolves are underdogs of 5-10 points and the under is 6-1 following the Rockets straight up loss which shows they play some defense after a SU loss.
I look for a game that is around 85-79 result as the twolves could win outright, but more importantly, I like the game to go under.
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February 6th Top Play:
San Diego State +2.5 or better - line should rise in favor of SDSU (1.5 units)
Air Force and San Diego State played back on January 20th and San Diego State fell short by 5 points 51-56 as they easily covered the spread.
Most people didn't think they would get that close to Air Force and took notice then and now San Diego State looks to return the favor. You fellas' know I'm big on revenge especially when it involves a top 100 team such as San Diego State.
I was tempted to take the points with Nebraska but I laid off simply because I like the home doggy with revenge although Nebraska and Missouri looked appetizing. The line opened up at -3 at LSVC but quickly moved to -2 at Leroy's and Stations despite most of the public I'm assuming will be on Air Force (probably closer to 2/3 on Air Force which makes the play even better).
There is reason for the short spread in my opinion as Air Force did lose to BYu and top 140 Utah on the road - San Diego State is a top 100 team by the way and more closely aligned as a top 75 team rather than the upper end of the 100.
San Diego State is 9-2 at home and although I think this will be a close game, I think San Diego State wins outright and they get their revenge.
You think I'm nuts to fade Air Force- maybe, but we'll see what happens as I think San Diego State wins 64-60.
Good luck fellas,
IC
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12-14 since posting at BC
FEBRUARY 7TH TOP PLAY:
Honorable mentions include Mississippi State, St. Louis and Georgetown.
The above 3 were my #4-#6 plays for the day.
Here are my top 3 that I am riding as it seems to be a juicy card on tap for tonight.
KANSAS STATE +10.5 will wait to see if line rises, please let me know if it does - hoping for 11 - 2 Units.
I know I am fighting with fire on this play as Kansas State but I have my reasonings and the backing and I will try to show you why. The reason I am fighting with fire is that Kansas comes off a loss and we remember what happened last time that happened as they pounded Baylor on the road.
Well, this is no Baylor as Kansas State despit one of their key players going down in January has even played better and they could be catching 11 if I wait for this line to rise.
This game is a rivalry and I don't see these K-State players losing by double-digits.
Look at the similar games these guys have played and you'll see why. Do you know Kansas State is a top 40 team and has won their last 7 ballgames in a row?
This team goes on the road to beat Missouri - when Missouri began playing well at that time as that team finally has a road backbone, then this team beats Baylor by 9, not imrpessive but Baylor but then they go on the road to beat Iowa State by 10 - a game that Kansas won by just 4 in overtime, then they pound a top 200 Chicago team with great defense by 37, beat a very good Nebraska team that I pointed to yesterday by 16, and the hell, they beat Missouri again by 7 at home! and defeated the Lonhorns by 1 on the road. Wow.
If that doesn't get some respect I don't know what will.
Am I worried about Kansas off a loss - sure. However, you saw when Missouri and Kansas played that Kansas almost lost at home to Mizzou and Kansas has looked human of late against teams that are good -like A&M for example.
I think Kansas State loses by 4-6 points in my book in a hard faught, great defensive ball-game.
Wildcats have covered their last 6 ballgames and are 5-1 ATS when facing a spread of 7 to 12.5 which is what they face today. A stat that I really like, Kansas is just 1-8 ATS when facing a team with a winning record at home - which means they don't cover big spreads at home against the better teams - i.e. when they failed to cover against A&M and even USC earlier in the season.
WRIGHT STATE -1.5 2 Units
This is a straight up power play on my end.
Wright State is 11-1 when facing teams that are ranked between the regions of 100-200 in my book.
How do I ignore that? This is why I chose this game over St. Louis and the only reason why is Xavier's revenge factor and they are dominant at home - after all, I was going to ride the Dukes regardless today - lol.
This line opened up at +3 and has been going down all damn day and I just don't get it.
Maybe the public assumes after a 14 point win, this Illinois team gets revenge - but I don't think so.
Wright State are winners of 5 straight and 8 of their last 9. I look at line movements too but I think this is b.s.
Wright State - a top 100 team in my book and who has been playing of top 50 caliber of lately - yes, top 50, went on the road to beat top 130 Loyola Chicago by 120, beat top 150 Wisconsin Green Bay by 11 on the road and beat top 170 Detroit by 7 on the road.
Now, they play a top 195 Illinois-Chicago team on the road who lost to Wisconsin-Green Bay by 20 on the road (31 point differential when compared to Wright State), lost to top 275 Cleveland State at home by 5 and are currently mired in a 6 game losing streak.
Why are they getting this much respect today, is beyond me but I guess I could see them rising up, but they are playing at a top 225 level of late.
As far as the revenge factor for Illinois - I just can't buy it b/c Wright State beat a better by 11 at home, and the beat them by 11 on the road. They beat a better Loyola-Chicago team by 20+ at home, and then beat them by 12 on the road.
Unless the refs help out Illinois-Chicago a lot, I see Wright State winning by 6-7 points.
DUQUESNE +3.5: 2 Units.
I don't see this line rising more but I would love to take it at +4 if I can but don't think it will happen.
With their new style of offense, which comprises of just shooting the lights out of the ball for over a 100 points and having a new set of fresh legs of 3 point ballers rolling in, the Dukes can play.
The Dukes are one of the fastest growing teams in the country as far as power-rankings are concerned and they are now top 175 in the nation in my book.
Results of late for the Dukes:
They beat a top 100 Dayton team at home by 3, they beat a top 150 team in Temple by 4 at home, they beat a top 50 team in Xavier at home by 2 and then they go on the road to rip the bonnies a new one to show their style of play does work on the road and beat them by nearly 20 without stopping the scoring attack.
93, 96, 93 and 111 points respectively. Hell, they would score 200 if you'd let 'em I think - lol.
La Salle is a top 270 team that has lost their last 5 of 6 ballgames with a sole win against one of the worst pr teams in the nation in Richmond.
This team lost to Temple by 25 on the road and lost to Fordham at home recently. I don't think the public realizes the Dukes potential and just sees their record which is what the oddsmakers want I assume.
Hell, this team lost by 14 to St. Bonny's on the road (33 point differential to the Dukes). Just think this is 2 teams headed in different directions and I just like the Dukes having the revenge factor as they lost to this team by 13 on the road earlier in the year.
The Dukes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games - yes, 9-1 and La Salle is -7 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
This is what I have fellas, apologize for the delay, just a busy day.
Take care,
IC
__________________Last edited by GOLDENGREEK; 02-07-2007, 03:31 PM.
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FEBRUARY 8TH TOP PLAY: (2 Units)
FAIRFIELD STAGS +9 or better (Currently sits at +8.5 but I think it will rise to 9 or maybe even 9.5, but will settle for at least 9 waiting or buying the half. Line opened at 8. Please let me know if the line rises anywhere).
Do you know that the Fairfield Stags have quitely won their last 7 striaght ballgames?
They are now 8-5 in conference - guess what Marist is? Not much better at 9-5 in conference play.
Like this play for many reasonn, in particular, it fades the public by a 2 to 1 margin, and it pits 2 teams that are even of late in my book - yes, the Fairfield Stags are even with respect to numbers against Marist.
Marist has covered the spread in this series the last 5 years, but they are clearly getting screwed here in my book.
You think Marist is that much better than Fairfield - I'll make my case for Fairfield b/c I think it's worth a 1.5 unit wager on my end.
Fairfield goes on the road to beat Iona by 7 in overtime. So what Iona right? Then Fairfield takes care of Siena, a top 175 team on the road and wins outright by 5 points in a game they were dogged by 10 points heading in - similar to today.
Then, Fairfield beats Iona again by 3 despite Iona having a revenge factor. Here's when it gets good - Fairfield then continues to beating St. Peters, Niagara by 12 and 8 points then beats Canisius on the road by 4 and Loyola Maryland a top 200 team at home.
This has been a one team wrecking crew when it comes to conference play.
How has Marist done against similar teams?
Farifield beats Niagara by 8 at home., Marist loses to Niagara by 12 at home,
Fairfield beats St. Peter by 8 at home, Marist beats them by 9 at home.
Fairfield beats Loyola Maryland by 3 at home, Marist beats LMand by 5 at H.
Fairfield loses to Rider by 1 at home, while Marist beats Rider by 1 on the road.
The Stags have been one of the best covers late as they are 5-1-1 in their last 7 games.
The Stags are 5-1 when facing a spread of 7-12 points of late as an underdog.
The Redfoxes of Marist are 0-6 ATS of late.
The Redfoxes are 0-6 ATS as a favorite.
And finally, Marist 0-6 in their last 6 conference games while just 1-4-1 ATS when facing a 7 to 12 point spread.
This is why I am on Fairfield for the outright or hang with Marist. The line is important, so I will at least play 9 and hope for a 9.5.
That's what I have on my card fellas, best of luck on whatever you play.
IC
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FEBRUARY 9TH TOP PLAY - 1.5 Units.
Honorable Mention: Iona +6
I said I wouldn't play NBA totals, I'll give tonight's Ivy League Special - a conference that is my absolute favorite a whirl here b/c it is a college total and it is in the Ivy league. Hell, I was 15-5 in the Ivy last year - .
Harvard vs. Princeton Under 121
Like the under here for several reasons. For one, the last 4 games in Princeton - which is all the home games this year - have gone under as when Princeton overs hit, it is typically on the road.
Also, without the big man C for Harvard, I don't see them dominating today by any means. Yes, they played very well without him in the win against Cornell, but then again, Cornell went 5/12 from the stripe in a game they lost by 1 while Harvard hit their free throws so that is a bit altered.
This is the first game Harvard plays on the road in a tough environment outside of their home without their big man and I think they will be out of sync early.
Hell, Princeton held Rice to 28 points, Marshall to 45 points, Leigh to 43 points and Rutgers to 53 points.
The totals for these games?
Rice totaled at 79, Marshall at 106, Rutgers at a 100 and Leigh at 87.
I see Harvard having trouble on the road, Princeton controlling the game in a half-court set and the game to be somewhere around 58-48 (totals around 106 points) as I can't wager on Harvard in their first road game without their leading scorer. If this wager loses, I think it will be to Harvard putting up the long ball and in unfamiliar settings, I think they won't be as successful.
The Under is 10-4 for Princeton of late and seeing that I think they dictate the pace, that works well with the under. The under is 4-0 when Princeton is the favorite, another indication and the Under is 7-0 when Harvard is a big underdog of 7-12 points.
Either way a winning month as I would make this a 2 unit wager, but no need to, I can relax at 1.5 units for the night and look forward to Saturday.
That's what I have fellas,
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