NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

[vinnyvegas]

Well, it's a WINNER. 5 minutes left and OVER

[molta02]

thanks for another winner...... over the total with 5 minutes left in the game. its appreciated.

[KazDog]

Great job Brewer....Thanks so much for passing along your winners. Very unselfish of you and we all appreciate it....

KAZ

[brewers7]

Was waiting to see if line would go down at all, but the line is starting to move up and I missed out on the +104 at Pinny...I will take it now...

I will be making more plays as the day progresses, believe me, but wanted to get this one bet now...

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 48-27, +$2655

Sides: 23-12, +$1348, Totals: 15-11, +$749, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-2, +$69, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

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Wednesday, December 13

Denver/Washington over 221.5 -- $300 to win $300 --- (or Den/Was over 221.5 @2.000, 3/10, Pinnacle)

Etan Thomas is expected to miss and Brendan Haywood is questionable for Washington...With both Centers possibly out (and 2 other Center options already Out -- Michael Ruffin and Darius Songaila), any defensive presence (please don't laugh too hard) the Wiz have are pretty much gone as Thomas and Haywood have combined for 62 blocked shots...So The Wiz may have to go small on Wednesday and with Denver flying up and down the court, this is looking like a track meet...No truth to the rumor that starting blocks are being installed on the the baselines for this game...

DEN is 2nd and WAS is 6th in the league in points per game...These 2 teams have gone Over 6 straight games h2h by an aggregate total of roughly 94 points (about 16 points per game Over the Vegas total per game)...The lowest total between these 2 teams is 213 the last 5 meetings, and this is BEFORE the nuggets installed this new offense...DEN 3-1-1 to the Over this season on the back-end of bk-2-bks and the push was against ORL (4th in the league in FG% allowed) and the under against DAL (climbing quickly to 12th in the league in FG% allowed)...WAS Over 5 of their last 6 overall and the one Under was by 1/2 a point against DAL at Home...DEN is Under 2 straight for the first time this season...I don't see them going under for a 3rd straight...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+$400)
Last 7 days: 7-3 (+$631)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[brewers7]

Remember, a bet has already been placed for Wednesday in a previous post...

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Early looks at Wednesday's games:

Phoenix at Miami: No total posted...Dwayne Wade expected to miss and Gary Payton questionable for Miami...PHOE has won 11 straight as they play the final game of their 5-game Road-trip...The Suns have Covered 5 straight...They are rolling-rolling-rolling, Rawhide...9-point chalk seems awfully high, but without Wade, is it really too many points?...Amare Stoudamire is looking as healthy as ever and this seems to be the reason why the Suns are rolling right now...Alonzo Mourning may be able to neutralize Amare while he is in there, but playing significant minutes is always an issue with Zo...Haslem is still feeling the after-effects of the flu (just 0-4 from the field last time out vs. TOR)...This is an ESPN game, but with the Wade injury, it's hard to say how this may go as trends are more or less out the window now...

Charlotte at Cleveland: Brevin Knight is questionable for CHAR...Drew Gooden is questionable for CLE...The Bobcats have been obliterated their last 3 games, all at Home, losing by 30 to PHOE, 30 to HOU & 20 to SA, shooting 40%, 28% and 40%, respectively in those games...Awful stretch and they have looked lost without Brevin Knight...Now they have to deal with a revenge spot from the opening week of the season because the Bobcats beat CLE at CHAR on 11/4...The Cavs has been anything-but dominant against CHAR at CLE, winning each of the last 2 contests in OT...CLE also coming off a loss at NO as the Cavs continue to under-achieve this season...The last 2 h2h meetings have gone Under...CHAR is 3rd and CLE is 5th in the league in FG% allowed...CHAR is still a chart-play to the Under as they have gone Under 4 straight after 5 straight Overs...CLE Under 3 of the last 4...

Denver at Washington: Joe Smith is questionable for Denver...Etan Thomas is expected to miss and Brendan Haywood is questionable for Washington...With both Centers possibly out (and 2 other Center options already Out -- Michael Ruffin and Darius Songaila), any defensive presence (please don't laugh too hard) the Wiz have are pretty much gone as Thomas and Haywood have combined for 62 blocked shots...So WAS may have to go small on WED and with Denver flying up and down the court, this is looking like a track meet...No truth to the rumor that starting blocks are being installed on the the baselines for this game...

DEN is 2nd and WAS is 6th in the league in points per game...These 2 teams have gone Over 6 straight games h2h by an aggregate total of roughly 94 points (about 16 points per game Over the total per game)...The lowest total between these 2 teams is 213 the last 5 meetings...DEN 3-1-1 to the Over this season on the back-end of bk-2-bks and the push was against ORL (4th in the league in FG% allowed) and the under against DAL (climbing quickly to 12th in the league in FG% allowed)...WAS Over 5 of their last 6 overall and the one Under was by 1/2 a point against DAL at Home...DEN is Under 2 straight for the first time this season...Can they go Under 3 straight?...DEN is 6-1 SU & ATS vs. WAS the last 7 h2h meetings...

Detroit at Indiana: No total posted...Stephen Jackson is probable, Jermaine O'Neal is doubtful, Al Harrington & Marquis Daniels are questionable for Indy...This has been an Under h2h series...Period...7-0-1 to the under (including playoff games) the last 8 h2h meetings...The under is 19-4-1 the last 24 h2h regular season meetings and if you include the last 2 playoff series in that mix, you have 28-7-1 to the under the last 36 meetings between these 2 teams h2h...DET has gone Under their last 4 games overall, with 180 being their highest total during this stretch...Ok, any idea which way I will lean on this total?...DET is 6-3 & 4-4-1 ATS the last 9 regular season games h2h vs. Indy...

Boston at Philadelphia: No total posted...Wally Szczerbiak is questionable and Kendrick Perkins is Out for Boston...Allen Iverson is on the inactive list for Philly and his locker has been cleaned out for Philly...BOS is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS the last 5 h2h meetings here...BOS is a chart-play here as they are on a C2 (won both) after a NC5 (lost all 5)...Been a while since they laid chalk at Philly, but the 76ers are horrible right now...Both teams Under in their last 2 games overall...

Toronto at Orlando: No total posted...Chris Bosh is out for Toronto...Keith Bogans is questionable and Hedo Turkoglu is Out for ORL...The Raptors have been in the tank since Bosh got hurt...Zero inside presence...Now they have to deal with Dwight Howard, who is coming off a horrible game where the refs scewed him over royally...Howard played just 19 minutes and had a season low in poinst (4) and rebounds (3) and quite frankly, the refs screwed Howard over badly with horrible calls as Raja Bell, Boris Diaw and Amare Stoudamire were flopping to the floor as if shot by a rifle if Howard would even bump them slightly...In fact, the replay of Howard's 4th foul CLEARLY showed that Diaw was not even touched by Howard, but cleverly just flopped to the floor as he stood beside Howard and the ref with a bad angle whistled him for a foul and Howard got a "T" after that and who could blame him?...

But Howard may want to take some frustration out here on a Toronto team who will have no answer for him...The Raps were blistered by PORT by 10 at Home on Sunday and lost by 20 at Miami on Monday...This one could get ugly...ORL hasn't Covered 6 of their last 7 and TOR has Covered 5 of the last 6 h2h, but without Bosh here, the Magic may be primed for a rout...5 of the last 6 h2h meetings have gone under...TOR Under 5 straight and 10 of 12 overall and have ditched their run-and-gun offense as I have mentioned for a week now...ORL Under 5 straight and are 16-3-1 to the Under overall themselves...

Milwuakee at New Jersey: Jason Collins is questionable for NJ...The Nets have won 4 straight h2h meetings with MILW and all 4 have gone Under...NJ is 1-2 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, although their only win and Cover was against MILW at NJ on 11/15 as the nets won by 13 as 6.5 point chalk...MILW 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks and are 4-2 to the Over in this spot this season...NJ was 1-9-1 ATS in the 11 games before Covering against MEMP at NJ 2 days ago...NJ started slow last season, too, and then came a 10-game winning streak starting on DEC 16...Was that loss to Boston after leading 22-2 in that game a wake-up call?...

Atlanta at New York: No total posted...Joe Johnson expected to miss for Atlanta...Steve Francis and Channing Frye are Out for NY...7 of the last 9 in this h2h series have gone Over, but their first meeting at ATL on 11/3 stayed Under at ATL...The Hawks have covered 4 of the last 6 meetings...ATL struggling without Joe Johnson...NY 1-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not and ATL 2-2 ATS in back-enders this season...So it is a revenge spot for NY, but this is a lot of chalk for this team to lay...

Portland at Memphis: No total posted...Pau Gasol is questionable and may return later this week...On the surface, it would seem like a lot of chalk to lay here with MEMP, but this is the 6th and final game of a Portland Road trip...The public is hammering PORT early of course...PORT has Covered 5 of the last 6 in this h2h series, but only won 2 of those games and have only beaten MEMP twice in their last 8 tries...After a C6, MEMP has Not Covered 6 of their last 7...Damon Stoudamire spoke out after their last loss at NJ, but this doesn't guarantee a spirited effort here, does it?...The Grizz may view this as a must-win game as they jave lost 3 straight and 6 of 7...

Minnesota at San Antonio: The T-Wolves had been doing decently at SA a few years back, winning 3 of 4 trips into SA from FEB of 2002 thru JAn of 2004...But Minny has lost 5 straight trips since then, only Covering once and the 4 losses were all by at least 14 points each...3 of the last 4 games in this h2h series have gone Over (all last season)...The Spurs also swept the season series last year, covering twice...SA has won 6 of the last 7 SU...Both teams are red-hot coming into this matchup as SA has won 4 of 5 and all 4 wins were by at least 20 points each game and the 2 Home wins were by at least 29 each game...Minny has won 4 straight and 7 of 10 and have Covered 4 straight and 9 of 10...Minny has gone under 7 of their last 8 overall...

Seattle at Chicago: Ray Allen and Danny Fortson are still Out and Earl Watson is questionable for Seattle...The Sonics are doing just fine without Ray Allen, Covering all 4 games and they won the first 3 of those games at Home before losing at MILW by just one point...SEA 1-3 SU & 3-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks...Chicago is 1-0 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...SEA is 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS vs. the Bulls h2h the last 12...SEA has won and Covered 3 straight overall and the Sonics are also 8-0 SU & ATS at Chicago their last 8 trips into the Windy City and have not lost their since a guy named Jordan played for da Bulls...

LA Lakers at Dallas: Lamar Odom is Out for the Lakers...Jerry Stackhouse is questionable and and Austin Croshere is probable Dallas...The Mavs are coming off a 22-point loss and the Lakers are coming off 2 big wins in a row, the first at Staples vs. the Spurs 3 days ago and the second win at Houston last night...The Lake-Show did blow a 27-point 4Q lead by allowing the Rockets to outscore them 26-1 to cut the deficit to 2, but a pair of missed FTs by Scott Padgett rhat would have tied it turned the tide and LAL hung on to win...The big blow was losing Lamar Odom for at least a month with a sprained knee ealy in that game...The Lakers rose uop without him, but can they do it on bk-2-bk nights?...Speaking of bk-2-bk nights and favorable schedules, how in the world did the Lakers go 5 weeks without playing a back-to-back??...The Lakers last back-ender came on Day 9 of the season and today is Day 43...Let's not forget they played 8 straight games and 13 out of 14 at Staples before going to Houston last night...Dallas 2-0 when they have rest and their opponents do not, both wins of at least 15 points over TOR and DEN...The Mavs have not lost 2 in a row since starting the season 0-4...The Mavs were 3-1 SU & ATS last season (including 2 playoff games) after a loss by at least 20 points...However, they are 0-1 SU & ATS in this spot this season, but this was in Game 3 of the season during that 4-game losing streak during their Finals hangover...


If you look at the recent h2h history, DAL beat this team by 15 the last trip in, but the Lakers won the previous 2 trips to Dallas...The 3 trips to Dallas before these 3 ALL fit today's situational spot where the Lakers were on a back-ender and Dallas had rest...Dallas won and Covered he last 2 with 19 and 14 point wins (on 1/2/04 and 1/5/05 respectively), but lost the first one (but Dirk Nowitzki missed that game with a sprained ankle on 12/4/03)...Lakers have covered 5 of the last 6 vs. DAL overall and 5 of the last 7 went Over...

Utah at LA Clippers: No total posted...Mehmet Okur is questionable for Utah...Tim Thomas and Corey Maggette are doubtful and Sam Cassell and Chris Kaman are questionable for the Clippers...The Clips look like a MASH unit...They are under-achieving and now they are under-manned...And Utah are the kings of the West with the best record in the league...The Jazz buried the Clips by 22 on 11/14 at Utah when the Clips were completely healthy AND playing well at 5-1 and had won 5 straight coming into that game vs. the Jazz...So yes, a let-down spot here for Utah and a big bounce-back spot for the Clips here, but are the Clips even capable of bouncing back right now??...LAC have won and covered 4 straight at Home vs. Utah, but I am not sure if it matters in this spot with the Clips playing very poorly and now they are very short-handed...4 straight in this h2h series has gone Over...

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[Tnbreakers]

Thanks again for the winner Brew!

[brewers7]

Additional bet:

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Wednesday, December 13

Dallas Mavericks -8 -- $101 to win $100 --- (or Dallas -8 hcp @1.990, 1/10, Pinnacle)

The Mavs are coming off a 22-point loss and the Lakers are coming off 2 big wins in a row, the first at Staples vs. the Spurs 3 days ago and the second win at Houston last night...The Lake-Show did blow a 27-point 4Q lead by allowing the Rockets to outscore them 26-1 to cut the deficit to 2, but a pair of missed FTs by Scott Padgett rhat would have tied it turned the tide and LAL hung on to win...The big blow was losing Lamar Odom for at least a month with a sprained knee ealy in that game...The Lakers rose up without him, but can they do it on bk-2-bk nights?...Speaking of bk-2-bk nights and favorable schedules, how in the world did the Lakers go 5 weeks without playing a back-to-back??...The Lakers last back-ender came on Day 9 of the season and today is Day 43...Let's not forget they played 8 straight games and 13 out of 14 at Staples before going to Houston last night...Dallas 2-0 when they have rest and their opponents do not, both wins of at least 15 points over TOR and DEN...The Mavs have not lost 2 in a row since starting the season 0-4...The Mavs were 3-1 SU & ATS last season (including 2 playoff games) after a loss by at least 20 points...However, they are 0-1 SU & ATS in this spot this season, but this was in Game 3 of the season during that 4-game losing streak during their Finals hangover...

If you look at the recent h2h history, DAL beat this team by 15 the last trip in, but the Lakers won the previous 2 trips to Dallas...The 3 trips to Dallas before these 3 ALL fit today's situational spot where the Lakers were on a back-ender and Dallas had rest...Dallas won and Covered the last 2 with 19 and 14 point wins (on 1/2/04 and 1/5/05 respectively), but lost the first one (but Dirk Nowitzki missed that game with a sprained ankle on 12/4/03)...Back to the bounce-back spot tonight for Dallas...The Mavs shot just 37.7% from the field last night and Josh Howard was 2-for-10, Jason Terry was 2-for-7 and Devin Harris was 2-for-9...These 3 players are much better than this and should respond...Croshere is back which will help the rotation...Meanwhile Kobe Bryant played 42 minutes last night...So yes, Bryant has his legs back now, and he better have because with Odom Out, Kobe will have to carry the load and if he has an off night, he'll be forcing shots...I think this is a good bounce-back spot for the Mavs vs. a let-down spot for the Lakers, who have to now try and win a second straight game in as many nights without a star player as Odom has been spectacular thus far for the Lakers...They could still lose and Cover, but I'll take a shot with the Mavs...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[ironman95]

Thanks for all the hard work and another winner last night B7! Look forward to your insight each day.

[garth]

Keep it rolling, brewers! I appreciate your work.

[sicairos]

Thank You Brewers

[brewers7]

If I am going to get burned tonight, may as well get burned big...Sorry, but I love this total...Cannot help myself...Hopefully they hit their shots tonight because they'll be putting up plenty...

Additional bets:

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Wednesday, December 13

Denver/Washington, 1Q, over 56.5 -- $110 to win $100 --- (or Den/Was, 1Q, over 56.5 @1.909, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Denver/Washington, 1H, over 112 -- $100 to win $101 --- (or Den/Was, 1H, over 112 @2.010, 1/10, Pinnacle)

I have said enough already about this game total...These teams are usually out of the gate very fast as WAS is 13-7 to the Over in the 1Q and even better at Home...DEN has been quick out of the gate and I compare this game with the pace of the 2 DEN vs. GS games where they were flying from the get-go and both games flew Over the 1Q, 1H and Game totals...I see a track meet here...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Dal, 2) Sea, 3) Orl, 4) Char, 5) Memp, 6) Ind, 7) Phi, 8) LAC, 9) Atl, 10) Min, 11) Mia, 12) Was, 13) NJ

Totals:

1) Was ov, 2) Orl un, 3) Ind un, 4) Dal un, 5) Char un, 6) Phi un, 7) LAC un, 8) Sea un, 9) Memp un, 10) Atl un, 11) NJ un, 12, Min ov, 13) Mia un

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[TCB in a Flash]

thanks b7 - good luck tonight - keep it rolling!

[rocko]

ANOTHER GREAT JOB BREWER FUCKING KILLING THEM RIGHT NOW RIDE THE WAVE BROTHER RIDE THE WAVE CAUSUE IT NICE WHEN IT GOES YOUR WAY IM LOViNG IT U KNOW YOUR SHIT GREATTTTTTTT JOB KEEP IT UP
GLLLLLLLLL
GET-R-DON PEACE

[bwade210]

Good luck my friend!

[SACPAC]

Good Luck B7 & Thanks For All Your Hard Work & Winner's....