NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

[LVJimmy]

Hope I can heat up again but no promises...

heat up? Brew, u r 47-27, give yourself some credit...lol

[LVJimmy]

It's obvious you've been doing this for a long time...what percentage of games do you usually win over an entire season? Thanks brew, and GL the rest of the week.

[ironman95]

Hey B7, pounded the jazz and played all your other sides but 1 (Mia). So ended up pretty well for the day. You cap other games (NFL, NCAAB)? Thanks for all the work!

[brewers7]

It's obvious you've been doing this for a long time...what percentage of games do you usually win over an entire season? Thanks brew, and GL the rest of the week.

It varies from year to year and depends on how many games I play...Winning percentage really isn't important at all if you are trying to win money every week...You can be a 60% capper and lose money and be a 52% capper and make money...

Hey B7, pounded the jazz and played all your other sides but 1 (Mia). So ended up pretty well for the day. You cap other games (NFL, NCAAB)? Thanks for all the work!

I do NHL (and I am posting those now in a separate thread) and NFL and MLB...


================================================== =====================

Early looks at Tuesday's games:

Denver at Atlanta: No total posted...Reggie Evans and Joe Smith are questionable for Denver...Joe Johnson is questionable for Atlanta...From a situational trend analysis point of view, how many factors can point in one direction here?...A quick revenge spot for a bad home loss on 12/6 for Denver here, where they blew a 14-point lead in the 4Q...DEN also off a 15-point loss at Dallas, but that game wasn't even that close, so the Nuggets are in bounce-back mode here...And now you have the injury to Joe Johnson which certainly should play a major factor here...So Denver has a plus-3 in their favor for reasons why you should take them...But hold on, the Nuggets have won once in their last 16 trips to ATL, and that was 2 seasons ago on 2/15/05, where DEN won by 4, which happens to be less then the current 4.5 pointspread at Pinnacle which is being pounded by Denver backers...

Does the h2h record even matter in THIS instance?...I would say the least amount of weight should be attached to the h2h here as DEN had some bad teams in the early 90's while ATL actually had good teams, playoff teams a few of those seasons...I would weight the situational trend spot much higher here, the quick revenge spot from a very bad home loss just 6 days ago, a game practically given away by the Nuggets...But some may argue that DEN has only Covered 1 of the last 7 and 3 of the last 14 h2h vs. ATL overall, no matter where the venue...4 of the last 5 at ATL between these 2 have gone Over...

Seattle at Milwaukee: SEA starts a 5-game Road trip and are shockingly enough 3-0 without Ray Allen as they head to MILW...Damien Wilkens has filled in just fine though, averaging 15.3 ppg...Earl Watson has also been outstanding, too...MILW is getting healthy and are playing better and are coming off a loss to the Knicks at MSG...Bucks are 3-9 SU & 2-10 ATS their last 12 h2h vs. SEA and 10 of the last 14 have gone Under...Can SEA keep winning without Allen?...All 3 wins were at Home...Now they venture on to the Road...MILW seems to be on the upswing...Home team has won and covered 5 straight in this h2h series...

LA Lakers at Houston: No total posted...Tracy McGrady expected to miss for Houston...Sandwich game here for the Lakers...They are off a big win at Home vs. the Spurs and have the Mavs at Dallas on Wednesday...The Lakers have covered 4 straight regular season games at Houston...I kind of see the public embracing the Lakers here with McGrady Out and the Lake-show off a big win against SA...Problem is HOU is 8-1 at Home and the Lakers have had a schedule heavily skewed to playing Home games to this point (15 Home games compared to just 5 Road games and 1 of those "Road" games was at Staples vs. LAC)...Do the Lakers even know how to finish a Road game yet for victory?...They are 1-3 Away from Staples...They have lost 3 straight after catching GS during the Warriors' opener this season...Lost at SEA, PORT and Utah, and they blew a 4Q lead at Utah as they could not finish that game off at a tough environment...Lakers have played their last 8 games at Staples...I wonder if the Lakers will let-down even more here with McGrady Out...Might look past the Rockets with the Mavs up next at Dallas on Wednesday...7 of the last 10 regular season games betwen these 2 teams have gone Over...

Sacramento at Golden State: Kenny Thomas is questionable and Maurice Taylor is expected to miss for SAC...Anthony Roberson and Zarko Cabarkapa are doubtful for GS...The Warriors won by 12 at Home on 11/16 on National TV...SAC has a semi-quick revenge spot here and just snapped a 5-game losing streak...GS is 8-4 SU & 9-2-1 ATS the last 12 vs. SAC and believe it or not, these teams are 9-3 to the Under their last 12, although on 11/16, they flew Over the total...GS is Over 10 of their last 12 overall...

================================================== =====================

[MRhotPICKS]

man you get these out there so nice and early.... thanks

[thaikarate1]

How are you doing in the NFL?

[vinnyvegas]

man you get these out there so nice and early.... thanks

He's a VAMPIRE

[drugstuntman]

I never get tired of coming here and saying thanks for another winner !!!!

[GrandPa]

Note on Houston:

There is a good chance Bonzi Wells will suit up and play tonight.

Just a FYI

[bwade210]

Agreed....thanks for the great write ups and great advice!

[garth]

Your write-ups and picks are rock solid, brewers. Thank you!

[brewers7]

Ok, almost done with NHL (12 games today)...Overall picks have been mediocre at best the last 8 days which should be expected after the red-hot 5-week start...Evening-out process taking place...Like MILW and the Under, too...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 47-27, +$2505

Sides: 23-12, +$1348, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-2, +$69, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

================================================== ======================

Tuesday, December 12

Sacramento/Golden State over 214 -- $153 to win $150 --- (or Sac/GS over 214 @1.980, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

Bought up 1/2 a point...Debated hard about the 1Q Over or the 1H Over or the Game total Over and just went with the game total...GS Over 10 of their last 12 overall...SAC has gone Over (and by plenty in many of those)in 6 straight Road games...Their h2h totals from the last 2 years can be thrown out IMO because with Nellie in charge, the Warriors will go small and run-run-run...SAC not afraid to play this style, either, although they have preferred the half-court set in the past...But they had slow guys like Webber and Divac in the past and ran their offense through those 2 guys in the past...Kevin Martin loves to run and so does Bibby...Should be a fast pace, so we just need mid-40% shooting or more from these 2 teams and this should go Over...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Milw, 2) Hou, 3) Den, 4) Sac

Totals:

1) Sac ov, 2) Milw un, 3) Hou un, 4) Den un

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$200)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+$450)
Last 7 days: 6-4 (+$379)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

[the lumberjack]

thanks and keep up the good work!!!!!!

[SACPAC]

Thanks And Good Luck.. Stay Positive Bro Another Hot Streak Is On The Way....

[bwade210]

Thanks and good luck my friend!