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Cnotes 2020-2021 nba trends, news, best bets and opinions thru the playoffs !

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  • StarDust Bum
    replied
    TUESDAY, JULY 20
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


    PHO at MIL 09:00 PM
    PHO +5.0
    O 222.0

    +500 +500

    Leave a comment:


  • Udog
    replied





    511PHOENIX -512 MILWAUKEE
    PHOENIX is 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.




    NBA
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, July 20







    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Tuesday, July 20


    Phoenix @ Milwaukee
    Suns
    — Phoenix lost last game despite making 13-19 on arc.
    — Suns are 6-4 ATS in road playoff games.
    — You’re reading ***************.com
    — Game 5 was 1st playoff game Phoenix lost while scoring more than 103 points.
    — Suns are in playoffs for first time in a decade.
    — Suns made 20 of 40 3-pointers in Game 2, 16-54 last two games.
    — Phoenix led by 16 early in Game 5, shot 55.2% from floor, still lost.
    — Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Phoenix games.

    Bucks (lead series 3-2)
    — Bucks won last three games after trailing series 2-0.
    — Milwaukee is 7-2-1 ATS in home playoff games.
    — Bucks outscored Phoenix 33-21 in 4th quarter in Game 4, rallied back from down 16 to win Game 5.
    — Middleton/Holiday shot combined 24-43 from floor in Game 5.
    — You’re reading ***************.com
    — Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Milwaukee games.
    — Milwaukee on arc: 9-31 in Game 2, 14-36 in Game 3, 7-29 in Game 4, 13-26 last game.
    — Antetokounmpo is great player, but was only 4-11 on foul line last game.

    — Home side won/covered four of five games in this playoff series.
    — Bucks were last in Finals in 1974, Suns in 1976.
    — Milwaukee wins its first title since 1971 with a won here.
    — Suns are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Milwaukee.
    — Over is 7-1-1 in last nine games between these teams.




    NBA

    Tuesday, July 20

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Trend Report

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Phoenix @ Milwaukee
    Phoenix
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
    Phoenix is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
    Milwaukee
    Milwaukee is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
    Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Leave a comment:


  • Udog
    replied
    Tuesday’s 6-pack
    Odds to win this week’s PGA tournament:
    15-2— Dustin Johnson
    14-1— Tony Finau, Louis Oosthuizen
    16-1— Patrick Reed
    30-1— Garcia, Grillo, MacIntyre, Tringale, Wolff
    35-1— Bubba Watson, Cam Davis
    40-1— Bradley, Herbert, Lebioda

    Quote of the Day.
    “There are no small things. Everything matters.”
    Jeff Van Gundy

    Tuesday’s quiz
    Which former kicker for the San Diego Chargers was the host of Wheel of Fortune, for six months in 1989?

    Hint: He kicked for the Chargers for ten years.

    Monday’s quiz
    When the Milwaukee Bucks won their only NBA title in 1971, they were a Western Conference team; they swept the Baltimore Bullets 4-0 in the Finals.

    Sunday’s quiz
    Kansas City Royals were a 1969 expansion team; the A’s moved out of Kansas City after the ’67 season, creating a void the Royals filled.

    ****************************

    Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

    13) Mets 15, Reds 11 (15):
    — Mets made 4 errors in first two innings, trailed 7-3 early.
    — Mets are 2nd team EVER to hit back/back homers in first inning, then hit back/back homers again in extra innings of same game. Last time it happened? Pirates in 1950.
    — Cincinnati’s bullpen is freakin’ terrible.

    12) 136 teams have had walk-off wins this baseball season; if you wagered on those teams in their next game, you’d be 78-58 (+14 units).

    11) Last week, Juan Soto said Home Run Derby would help his swing in regular games; turns out he was right. Soto homered twice Monday, has five taters in his last four games.

    10) Tigers 14, Rangers 0— Texas lost its last three games by a combined 29-0.

    9) Want to win a bar bet? Only one major leaguer EVER has 500+ hits for four different teams. I’ll post the answer near the end of this space.

    8) Colorado Rockies P Jon Gray could be traded in the next few days; he’s had an unusual season for a Colorado pitcher:
    — He has a 3.14 ERA in 10 home starts, which are at Coors Field
    — He has a 4.54 ERA in seven road starts

    7) Last four years, Northwestern’s football team has an 11-3 record in conference games that were decided by one score (8 or fewer points). On the other hand, Iowa Hawkeyes have a 6-11 record in one-core games over the last four years.

    6) 31 states and Washington DC currently have legalized sports betting.

    5) Favorites to have the fewest regular season wins in the NFL this fall:
    5-2— Texans
    7-2— Lions
    15-2— Bengals
    8-1— Jets
    11-1— Raiders

    4) Jets don’t have a quarterback on their roster who has thrown an NFL pass.

    3) Cubs 1B Anthony Rizzo turned down a 5-year, $70M contract this spring; will be curious where he winds up next season and how much money he’ll be making.

    Trivia answer:
    Rusty Staub was a great hitter; he had:
    — 792 hits for Houston
    — 709 hits for the Mets
    — 582 hits for Detroit
    — 531 hits for the Montreal Expos.

    Only player ever with 500+ hits for four different teams.

    2) When NFL teams make their final roster cuts, if there is a close decision between two players and one player is vaccinated and the other isn’t, could that be a deciding factor?

    Teams that get to the 85% threshold are going to have advantages as far as how normal their day-to-day operation runs. You wonder if that will factor in at all.

    1) In his first 10 starts this year, San Diego’s Joe Musgrove was 4-4, 2.59; then, on May 30, the Padres scripted that Musgrove would relieve starter Blake Snell in a day game in Houston, due to the San Diego bullpen having been overworked the few days before.

    But Houston led 7-0 after three innings; Musgrove relieved Snell anyway, even though the game was a lost cause- he blanked the Astros for five innings in a 7-3 loss.

    Since that day, Musgrove is 0-2, 5.06 in eight starts. Any connection? Impossible to tell, but it sure didn’t help any.


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  • Udog
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  • Udog
    replied





    509MILWAUKEE -510 PHOENIX
    PHOENIX is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.




    NBA
    Dunkel

    Saturday, July 17







    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Saturday, July 17


    Milwaukee @ Phoenix
    Bucks
    — Bucks are 4-3 in last seven games SU.
    — Milwaukee is 5-6 ATS in road playoff games.
    — Bucks outscored Phoenix 33-21 in 4th quarter of 6-point win in Game 4.
    — Last three games, Bucks are +24 with Giannis on court, -8 with him on bench.
    — You’re reading ***************.com
    — Over is 4-1-1 in last five Milwaukee games.
    — Milwaukee was 9-31 on arc in Game 2, 14-36 in Game 3, 7-29 in Game 4.
    — Middleton scored 40 points in Game 4 (15-33 from floor)

    Suns (series 2-2)
    — Phoenix won 17 of its last 23 games.
    — Suns are 7-3 ATS in home playoff games.
    — You’re reading ***************.com
    — Phoenix was held to 103 or fewer points in its playoff losses.
    — Suns are in playoffs for first time in a decade.
    — Suns made 20 of 40 3-pointers in Game 2, 16-54 last two games.
    — Booker was 17-28 last game; other starters 14-36.
    — Over is 4-1-1 in last six Phoenix games.

    — Home side won/covered all four games in this playoff series.
    — Bucks were last in Finals in 1974, Suns in 1976.
    — Suns are 4-2 vs Milwaukee this year, winning by 1-1-13-10 points.
    — Bucks are 0-5 ATS in last five visits to Phoenix.
    — Over is 6-1-1 in last eight games between these teams.




    NBA

    Saturday, July 17


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Trend Report

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Milwaukee @ Phoenix
    Milwaukee
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing Phoenix
    Phoenix
    Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Leave a comment:


  • Udog
    replied
    Saturday’s 6-pack
    Opening week college football spreads:
    — Nebraska (-8.5) @ Illinois
    — Hawai’i @ UCLA (-17)
    — UTEP (-7) @ New Mexico State
    — UConn @ Fresno State (-27)
    — Temple @ Rutgers (-13.5)
    — Boise State @ UCF (-4.5)

    Quote of the Day.
    “If you have a positive attitude and constantly strive to give your best effort, eventually you will overcome your immediate problems and find you are ready for greater challenges.”
    Pat Riley

    Saturday’s quiz
    How many major league teams has Tony LaRussa managed?

    Friday’s quiz
    In the movie Hoosiers, Jimmy Chitwood wore number 15.

    Thursday’s quiz
    Alex Rodriguez started his major league career with Seattle.

    ******************************

    Saturday’s Den: Big 14 football knowledge

    Illinois

    — New coach Bielema was 37-19 SU in Big 14 games at Wisconsin, from 2006-12.
    — Bielema later went 11-29 SU in SEC games at Arkansas.
    — Last nine years, Illinois is 14-25 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Illini lost last two bowls, haven’t won one since 2011, their last winning year.

    Indiana
    — Hoosiers went 14-7 SU last 2 years, after going 36-62 previous eight years.
    — HC Allen is 17-4 ATS if home team is favored, 8-13 if road team is favored.
    — Under Allen, Indiana is 18-6 ATS coming off a win.
    — Indiana lost its last six bowls; their last bowl win was 1991.

    Iowa
    — Last eight years, Iowa is 19-5-1 ATS as road favorites.
    — Last three years, Hawkeyes were +9/+9/+9 in turnovers.
    — Iowa covered 7 of its last 8 non-conference games.
    — Hawkeyes won last three bowls, scoring 34.3 ppg.

    Maryland
    — HC Locksley was 8-43 SU at New Mexico, is 6-17 SU here.
    — Last 6 years, Maryland is 23-41 SU; their last bowl was 2016.
    — Last 5 years, Terps are 5-13 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Terps lost last three bowls; their last bowl win was 2010.

    Michigan
    — Harbaugh is 9-17 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Last five years, Michigan is 4-10 ATS off a loss.
    — Since 2013, Wolverines are 12-22-1 ATS out of conference.
    — Michigan lost its last four bowls, giving up 34.8 ppg.

    Michigan State
    — 2013-15, Spartans were 36-5 SU; since then, they’re 29-29 SU.
    — Last three years, MSU is 2-15 ATS at home, 1-10 as a favorite.
    — Spartans are 2-7-1 ATS in last ten games as an underdog.
    — Over last decade, MSU is 9-2 ATS on neutral fields.

    Minnesota
    — Gophers were 3-4 LY, with two losses in overtime.
    — HC Fleck is 27-15-2 ATS on road, 22-23 at home.
    — Last 7 years, Minnesota is 22-10 ATS coming off a loss.
    — Gophers won their last four bowls, were underdog in 3 of them.

    Nebraska
    — Four straight losing seasons, going 16-28 SU.
    — Last 8 years, Nebraska is 14-25-1 ATS as home favorites.
    — Last 4 years, they’re 2-7 ATS out of conference.
    — Junior QB Martinez has 27 starts; they have 3 starters back on OL.

    Northwestern
    — Under Fitzgerald, Wildcats are 37-17 ATS as road underdogs.
    — New QB Hilinski started 11 games at South Carolina.
    — Last five years, Wildcats are 15-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.
    — Northwestern won its last four bowls, scoring 30.3 ppg.

    Ohio State
    — This is first time since 1952 Ohio St doesn’t have QB that has thrown a college pass.
    — HC Day is 14-5 ATS as a favorite.
    — Last 5 years, Buckeyes are 56-7 SU, with +45 turnover ratio.
    — Special teams slipped to #104 LY; previous 5 years, they were #32 or better.

    Penn State
    — Started 0-5 LY, giving up 36 ppg, then won last four games.
    — Last 6 years, Penn State is 3-17 ATS coming off a loss.
    — Nittany Lions have a junior QB with 20 career starts.
    — Franklin went 24-15 SU at Vanderbilt; he’s a good coach.

    Purdue
    — Last three years, Purdue is 1-7 ATS as home favorites.
    — Last three years, Purdue is 7-3 ATS as home underdogs.
    — HC Brohm is 19-10-1 ATS as an underdog.
    — Purdue is 3-2 SU in last 5 bowls; average total 78.

    Rutgers
    — Rutgers hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2014.
    — Last six years, Scarlet Knights are 16-43 SU.
    — HC Schiano is 26-16-1 ATS as a road underdog.
    — 2018-19, Rutgers was minus-27 in turnovers; LY, they were +5.

    Wisconsin
    — Last three years, Badgers are 5-11 ATS as home favorites.
    — Last eight years, Badgers are 20-9 ATS as road favorites.
    — Last two years, Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS coming off a loss.
    — HC Chryst won six of his eight bowl games.

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  • Udog
    replied

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  • Udog
    replied
    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-up

    Wednesday, July 14


    Phoenix @ Milwaukee
    Suns (lead series 2-1)
    — Phoenix won 17 of its last 22 games.
    — Suns are 6-3 ATS in road playoff games.
    — You’re reading ***************.com
    — Phoenix was held to 102-95-92-102-100 points in its playoff losses.
    — Suns are in playoffs for first time in a decade.
    — Suns made 20 of 40 3-pointers in Game 2, 9-31 in Game 3.
    — Booker was only 3-14 from floor in Game 3.
    — Over is 4-0-1 in last five Phoenix games.

    Bucks
    — Bucks split their last six games SU.
    — Milwaukee is 6-2-1 ATS in home playoff games.
    — Antetokounmpo scored 83 points in last two games.
    — Last two games, Bucks are +21 with Giannis on court, -11 with him on bench.
    — You’re reading ***************.com
    — Over is 4-0-1 in last five Milwaukee games.
    — Milwaukee was 9-31 on arc in Game 2, 14-36 in Game 3.
    — Starters other than Antetokounmpo were 19-52 in Game 2, 21-42 in Game 3.

    — Bucks were last in Finals in 1974, Suns in 1976.
    — Suns are 4-1 vs Milwaukee this year, winning by 1-1-13-10 points.
    — Suns are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Milwaukee.
    — Over is 6-0-1 in last seven games between these teams.
    — Home side won all three games in this series, all decided by 10+ points.


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  • Udog
    replied
    bump

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  • Udog
    replied
    507PHOENIX -508 MILWAUKEE
    PHOENIX is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.




    NBA
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, July 14







    NBA

    Wednesday, July 14

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Trend Report

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Phoenix @ Milwaukee
    Phoenix
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
    Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
    Milwaukee
    Milwaukee is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Phoenix


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Leave a comment:


  • Udog
    replied

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  • Udog
    replied
    Tuesday’s 6-pack
    Odds to win the British Open:

    9-1— Jon Rahm
    16-1— Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy
    18-1— Johnson, Thomas, Schauffele
    20-1— Jordan Spieth
    25-1— Victor Hovland
    30-1— DeChambeau, Morikawa, Oosthuizen

    Quote of the Day
    “I’ll never forget lining up for a play and Philip Rivers pointing to one of our LB’s and telling him he was lined up wrong based off the blitz we were about to run and being 100% correct haha.”
    JJ Watt

    Tuesday’s quiz
    Who won the first Home Run Derby, back in 1985?

    Monday’s quiz
    In 2002, the A’s won 20 games in a row; their 20th win came against the Royals.

    Sunday’s quiz
    2004 was the last time the Americans didn’t win the Olympic gold medal in basketball- they won a bronze medal; Argentina won the gold medal that year.

    *************************************

    Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but………

    13) This week is all about Shohei Ohtani and MLB’s obsession with promoting the guy, which is their business, I guess. Hopefully Ohtani’s people (and the Angels) are making sure he doesn’t get overextended or hurt. He is doing some unique things, but he is still human and needs to take care of himself.

    Ohtani is batting leadoff and is starting pitcher in the All-Star Game. Here are his pitching stats for this year:
    Ohtani: 4-1, 3.49 in 13 starts.
    Kyle Gibson of Texas: 6-1, 2.29 in 17 starts

    Maybe Kyle Gibson should be starting pitcher; I understand that no one outside of Arlington gives a rat’s ass about Gibson— he is 33, has been in the majors for nine years but he’s earned the right to start this All-Star Game, a big honor.

    Plus, if Ohtani pitched in relief, casual fans might stick with the game a little longer, until Ohtani gets in. Lot of casual fans will change the channel as soon as he is done pitching.

    12) MLB needs to promote its product better, the actual games, not just individuals; the last four Sunday nights, there have been only three games on ESPN and two of those were 7-inning games because they were parts of doubleheaders created by rainouts.

    All Sunday night games should be 9 innings, no matter what.

    11) The MLB amateur draft isn’t as fun as NFL/NBA drafts because we know so much less about the players being drafted. It is also more of a crapshoot; back in 1983, Roger Clemens was the 19th player taken in the draft, the 11th pitcher.

    Whoops.

    10) Teams with best record in games where winning run scored in last 3 innings:
    22-8— Cincinnati
    19-8— Seattle
    17-10— Oakland
    15-9— Boston
    17-11— NY Mets

    9) Teams with worst record in games where winning run scored in last 3 innings:
    8-23— Arizona
    8-19— Atlanta
    9-17— Toronto
    11-19— Texas
    8-15— Baltimore, White Sox

    8) There is a good website, umpscorecards.com that shows accuracy, consistency for the home plate umpire for every game.

    Milwaukee beat the Reds 5-3 in a game Thursday; the home plate umpire Brian O’Nora had a rough night, missing 16% of pitches on the outside corner. Reds players were yelling at him as he left the field; ump scorecards had him 87% accurate overall— the average is 94% accurate.

    7) From Juston Ray: Padraig Harrington won the British Open in 2007 and 2008. Since then, no Open champ finished in the top-25 at The Open the year before their win.

    Cink – Cut
    Oosthuizen- Cut
    Clarke – T44
    Els – Cut
    Mickelson – Cut
    McIlroy – Cut
    Zach Johnson – T47
    Stenson – T40
    Spieth – T30
    Molinari – Cut
    Lowry – Cut

    6) Only one golfer finished in the top 10 at the British Open in both 2018/2019:

    Tony Finau

    5) From Jason Logan on Twitter:
    NBA playoff betting stats:
    — favorites 48-34 ATS
    — favorites of 3 or fewer points 13-13
    — favored from 3.5-6 points 25-8 ATS
    — favored of 6.5+ points 10-13
    — Road favorites 15-10 ATS
    — Teams off a loss 31-36 ATS

    3) Phillies’ rookie reliever Damon Jones is the grandson of former NBA player Darrall Imhoff. Jones has yet to make his MLB debut, but is with the Phillies.

    Darrall Imhoff scored over 5,700 points in his 12-year NBA career, and was once part of the package the Lakers sent to Philadelphia when they acquired Wilt Chamberlain in 1968.

    2) Major league leaders in RBI from 7th inning on:
    29— Mitch Haniger, Seattle
    28— Eduardo Escobar, Arizona

    1) John Wooden didn’t win a national title until his 16th year at UCLA, but then he won 10 of them in 12 years; sometimes it takes a while to become an overnight success.


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  • StarDust Bum
    replied
    nba championship best bet record:

    Game 3 - 07/11/2021....... 0-2-0.....33.33%........-11.00
    game 2 - 07/08/2021....... 2-0-0...100.00%........+10.00
    game 1 - 07/06/2021....... 0-2-0.......0.00%.........-11.00

    totals............................2-4-0,,,,,,50.00%..........-12.00

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  • StarDust Bum
    replied
    SUNDAY, JULY 11
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


    PHO at MIL 08:00 PM
    PHO +4.0
    O 222.0

    +500 +500

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  • Udog
    replied

    Leave a comment:

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