The Bum's 2018 NBA Trends/Stats/Best Bets Thru The Playoffs !

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, January 19


Oklahoma City @ Philadelphia

Game 567-568
January 19, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
125.884
Philadelphia
125.392
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 1
231
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 2
235
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+2); Under

Phoenix @ Charlotte

Game 569-570
January 19, 2019 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
111.608
Charlotte
121.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 9 1/2
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 7
224 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(-7); Under

Sacramento @ Detroit

Game 571-572
January 19, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sacramento
114.352
Detroit
114.346
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
Even
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Sacramento
by 2 1/2
221
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+2 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Indiana

Game 573-574
January 19, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
118.064
Indiana
126.227
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 8
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 6 1/2
215 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(-6 1/2); Over

Milwaukee @ Orlando

Game 575-576
January 19, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
128.768
Orlando
110.832
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 18
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 9 1/2
221 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-9 1/2); Over

Boston @ Atlanta

Game 577-578
January 19, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
119.470
Atlanta
107.954
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 11 1/2
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 8 1/2
226 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-8 1/2); Under

Memphis @ Toronto

Game 579-580
January 19, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
112.010
Toronto
120.017
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 8
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 12 1/2
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+12 1/2); Under

Miami @ Chicago

Game 581-582
January 19, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
110.607
Chicago
109.650
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 3
206 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Under

LA Lakers @ Houston

Game 583-584
January 19, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
113.922
Houston
117.259
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
229
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 7
226 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(+7); Over

Cleveland @ Denver

Game 585-586
January 19, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
105.381
Denver
126.769
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 19 1/2
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 17 1/2
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-17 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

DAL at IND 07:00 PM
O 215.0

MIL at ORL 07:00 PM
ORL +9.5
O 222.0

SAC at DET 07:00 PM
SAC -1.5
U 222.5

BOS at ATL 07:30 PM
O 226.0

MEM at TOR 07:30 PM
TOR -10.0
U 213.0

MIA at CHI 08:00 PM
U 208.0

LAL at HOU 08:30 PM
LAL +7.0
O 228.0

CLE at DEN 10:00 PM
O 219.0

[StarDust Bum]

Paul George has late 4-point play, Thunder edge 76ers
January 19, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) James Harden scored 48 points, Eric Gordon added 30 and the Houston Rockets overcame a 21-point deficit to beat the Los Angeles Lakers 138-134 in overtime Saturday night.

The Rockets trailed for most of the night and were down by 18 in the second-half. Gordon sent it to overtime with a 3-pointer, and made four free throws in the last seconds of the extra period.

Coming off 57- and 58-point games, Harden had his 19th straight game with at least 30 and he's had 40 in 10 of 13. He was 14 of 30 from the field, going 8 of 19 3-pointers, and hit 12 of 15 free throws.

Kuzma had 32 points for Los Angeles and Brandon Ingram added 21 in a game where coach Luke Walton was ejected in the third quarter. Already without LeBron James and Rajon Rondo, the Lakers have another injury concern after Lonzo Ball sprained his left ankle in the third quarter. The team said he was taken to a hospital for X-rays because the machine at the arena was broken.

Harden also had eight rebounds, six assists and four steals.

James was out for the 13th straight game with a strained left groin and did not make the trip.

THUNDER 117, 76ERS 115

PHILADELPHIA (AP) - Paul George converted a four-point play with 5.1 seconds left, sending Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City past Joel Embiid and Philadelphia.

George capped a wild finish that included another memorable exchange between Westbrook and Embiid. Westbrook hit the floor out of bounds under the basket after a foul by Embiid late in the game, and Westbrook fouled out with 14.9 seconds on Embiid's 3-point try.

Embiid made all three foul shots, tying it at 113, and Jimmy Butler's layup put Philadelphia in front with 6.9 seconds to go. But George hit a 3 while being fouled by Butler and made the foul shot.

Philadelphia had one last chance, but Butler missed a 3-point attempt in the final seconds. The 76ers have lost 19 in a row to the Thunder.

George finished with 31 points, six rebounds, five assists and three steals. Westbrook had 21 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. Embiid, who was a game-time decision because of back tightness, had 31 points, eight rebounds and six assists.

RAPTORS 119, GRIZZLIES 90

TORONTO (AP) - Danny Green had a season-high 24 points and set a franchise record for 3-pointers in a quarter with seven in the third to help Toronto beat Memphis.

Green had 21 points in the third, one shy of Kyle Lowry's franchise record for a quarter. He matched a career high with eight 3s for the game. He also made eight 3-pointers against Minnesota in 2013.

The Raptors extended their home winning streak to nine. Toronto is 20-4 at home.

Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard missed his second straight game for rest.

Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 16 points for Memphis. The Grizzlies lost for the 11th time in 12 games.

BUCKS 118, MAGIC 108

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - Eric Bledsoe scored 30 points, Giannis Antetokounmpo had 25 points and 13 rebounds and Milwaukee beat Orlando for its fourth straight victory.

Malcolm Brogdon added 18 points, and Khris Middleton had 15. The Bucks are 11-2 in their last 13 games. Nikola Vucevic led Orlando with 27 points.

CELTICS 113, HAWKS 105

ATLANTA (AP) - Kyrie Irving scored 32 points and Boston rallied to beat Atlanta for its third straight victory.

Boston took the lead with a 9-0 fourth-quarter run, including a go-ahead 3-pointer by Jaylen Brown, who had 14 points. A drive by Irving gave Boston the lead for good at 101-100. Al Horford made four free throws and a layup to help the Celtics increase their advantage to 109-100 with 1:11 left.

Kevin Huerter led Atlanta with 18 points, and fellow rookie Trae Young had 16.

KINGS 103, PISTONS 101

DETROIT (AP) - Buddy Hield made an off-balance, fadeaway 3-pointer just before time expired and scored 35 points in Sacramento's victory over Detroit.

Hield fumbled an inbounds pass with 3.4 seconds left, scrambled to regain possession and put up the winning shot from the left wing. Blake Griffin scored 38 points for Detroit.

HEAT 117, BULLS 103

CHICAGO (AP) - Dwyane Wade had 14 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in his final game in his hometown, helping Miami hand Chicago its 10th straight loss

Wade, who turned 37 on Thursday, plans to retire at the end of his 16th NBA season. He got a warm reception in his return, hearing several loud ovations throughout the night.

Josh Richardson had 26 points for Miami. Zach LaVine scored 22 points for Chicago.

PACERS 111, MAVERICKS 99

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Tyreke Evans scored 19 points, Domantas Sabonis had 16 points and 11 rebounds, and Indiana beat Dallas for its third victory in four games.

Harrison Barnes scored 20 points for Dallas, and DeAndre Jordan had 15 points and 16 rebounds. But the Mavericks were unable to overcome a lackluster performance by rookie star Luka Doncic. The 6-foot-7 forward scored eight points - his fewest in more than a month - and was ejected for the first time after drawing a second technical late in the third quarter.

HORNETS 135, SUNS 115

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Kemba Walker scored 21 points, Jeremy Lamb hit three-points and had 18 points and Charlotte beat Phoenix for its third straight victory.

Charlotte shot 54.5 percent from the field, made 16 of 34 3-point attempts and matched its season-high points total. Devin Booker had 32 points and 11 assists for the Suns.

NUGGETS 124, CAVALIERS 102

[StarDust Bum]

JANUARY'S OPINION AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

01/19/2019 10-6-0 62.50% +17.00
01/18/2019 10-3-0 76.92% +33.50
01/17/2019 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
01/16/2019 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
01/15/2019 8-3-1 72.73% +23.50
01/14/2019 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
01/13/2019...... 4-10-0 .....28.57%... -35.00
01/12/2019 2-11-0 15.38% -50.50
01/11/2019 12-6-0 66.67% +27.00
01/10/2019 3-4-0 42.85% -7.00
01/09/2019 10-8-1 55.56% +6.00
01/08/2019 8-8-0 50.00% -4.00
01/07/2019 7-9-0 43.75% -14.50
01/06/2019 4-7-0 36.36% -18.50
01/05/2019 9-7-0 56.25% +6.50
01/04/2019 10-7-0 58.82% +11.50
01/03/2019 4-2-0 66.67% +9.00
01/02/2019 13-5-0 72.22% +37.50
01/01/2019 3-7-0 30.00% -23.50


Totals..........131-116-0......53.03%%...+6.30


NBA BEST BETS:

DATE......................ATS...................UN ITS...................O/U...................UNITS..............TOTAL

01/19/2019...........2 - 2..................-1.00.....................7 - 2.................+24.00...........+23.00
01/18/2019...........5 - 0..................+25.00..................3 - 3.................-1.50..............+23.50
01/17/2019...........2 - 1..................+4.50....................2 - 1.................+4.50.............+9.00
01/16/2019...........0 - 3..................-16.50...................4 - 4.................-2.00..............-18.50
01/15/2019...........0 - 3..................-16.50...................5 - 0.................+25.00...........+8.50
01/14/2019...........2 - 2..................-1.00.....................2 - 2..................-1.00.............-2.00
01/13/2019 ..........1 - 4..................-17.00...................1 - 4..................-17.00...........-34.00
01/12/2019...........0 - 4..................-22.00...................2 - 5..................-17.50............-39.50
01/11/2019...........3 - 1..................+9.50....................6 - 3.................+13.50...........+23.00
01/10/2019...........2 - 1..................+4.50....................1 - 3.................-11.50.............-7.00
01/09/2019...........1 - 2...................-6.00....................5 - 3.................+8.50..............+2.50
01/08/2019...........2 - 2...................-1.00....................3 - 3..................-1.50...............-2.50
01/07/2019...........4 - 2..................+9.00....................3 - 3..................-1.50...............+7.50
01/06/2019...........2 - 1..................+4.50....................2 - 3.................-6.50................-2.00
01/05/2019...........2 - 1..................+4.50....................3 - 8.................-12.50...............-8.00
01/04/2019...........0 - 3..................-16.50....................6 - 2.................+19.00............+2.50
01/03/2019...........3 - 0..................+15.00...................1 - 2.................-6.00...............+9.00
01/02/2019...........4 - 1..................+14.50...................6 - 2.................+19.00............+33.50
01/01/2019...........1 - 2...................-6.00.....................1 - 2..................-6.00...............-12.00

Totals.................36 - 37.................-12.50....................63 - 55..............+29.00...........+16.50

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

More over/under baseball totals for 2019:

74.5— Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox

76.5— Toronto Blue Jays

77— Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds

77.5— San Diego Padres

78.5— Pittsburgh Pirates

82— Colorado Rockies

Tweet of the Day
“I’m not offended by all the dumb blonde jokes because I know I’m not dumb, and I also know that I’m not blonde.”
Dolly Parton, whose birthday was Saturday

Sunday’s quiz
Jim Morris was a science teacher in Texas who tried out for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and pitched in 21 major league games at age 35. What fine actor played Morris in the movie, The Rookie?

Saturday’s quiz
Spurs’ coach Gregg Popovich is a graduate of the Air Force Academy.

Friday’s quiz
Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III, the AFL’s first win in a Super Bowl.


*****************************

Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Kentucky 82, Auburn 80— Wildcats led this game 58-41 with 17:00 left; Auburn took the lead 80-79 with 0:32 left, but Kentucky scored with 0:24 left, then Auburn never got the ball to their best player on their last possession and that was that.

Auburn alum Charles Barkley was on ESPN for a segment of this game and he ripped the current NBA product, which I’m sure didn’t thrill his bosses at Turner Broadcasting very much. Barkley complained about the amount of 3-pointers being taken by NBA teams.

It is getting harder to listen to Dick Vitale on the air; he launched into a rant every time the refs went for a replay review. Sounded like he had a plane to catch after the game.

12) Duke 72, Virginia 70— Cavaliers hit a jumper at the buzzer for the back-door cover, but they lose to a Duke team playing without their point guard.

Mike Krzyzewski is only college basketball coach that doesn’t do halftime interviews, yet his son-in-law (Chris Spatola) works for ESPN. Whats up with that? Is it that hard to answer two softball ?’s on way to locker room?

11) Are ESPN’s announcers required to mention Zion Williamson EVERY TIME they promo a Duke game, because they do mention his name EVERY TIME they read a Duke promo. You would think if it wasn’t mandated someone wouldn’t do it.

10) James Nunnally is a sub for the Houston Rockets; he is 28 years old, played four years at Cal-Santa Barbara. Here are the professional teams he’s played for:

2012: Kavala, in Greece
2012-14: Bakersfield Jam in the D-League
2014: Texas Legends in the D-League
2014: Hawks, 76ers in the NBA
2014: Santurce in Puerto Rico
2014: Estudiantes in Spain
2014-15: Maccabi Ashdod in Israel
2015-16: Sidigas Avellino in Italy
2016-18: Fenerbahce in Turkey
2018-19: Timberwolves, Rockets in the NBA

Imagine the book this guy could write????

9) Rockets 138, Lakers 134 OT— ESPN had quite a day; big college games at Auburn, Duke were both decided by a hoop, then this game on ABC went OT. James Harden scored 48 points for the Rockets, which these days seems commonplace.

8) Drexel 73, James Madison 68— Dukes led this game 22-4 early, but went 3-12 on foul line and were behind by halftime. Drexel outscored JMU 18-3 on the foul line.

7) Upsets of the Day:
— Elon (+12.5) 76, Wm & Mary 71
— DePaul (+9) 97, Seton Hall 93
— Penn (+9) 77, Temple 70
— Charlotte (+7.5) 55, Louisiana Tech 40— Tech was 1-23 on the arc.
— Towson State (+7) 64, Delaware 63— Towson was down 15 at the half.
— Eastern Illinois (+6.5) 85, Austin Peay 83
— West Virginia (+5.5) 65, Kansas 64
— Niagara (+5.5) 75, Quinnipiac 72
— Missouri (+5.5) 66, Texas A&M 43

6) One college that lost out big-time with all the conference changes a few years ago was UConn, whose sports program has a $40M shortfall this year. Huskies’ terrible football team lost $8.7M, their basketball team $5M and women’s basketball team lost $3M.

Big 14 screwed up (in my opinion) when they took Rutgers over UConn, but they care more about football than hoops. Would the Huskies be better off as an independent in football, and a Big East member in basketball?

5) Cal-Irvine 74, Cal State-Northridge 68— Anteaters were down 47-31 at the half, but rallied to avoid this road upset. Mark Gottfried is doing a nice job rebuilding the Northridge program.

4) Nets 145, Rockets 142 OT— This game was Wednesday but it was odd; here is a breakdown of Houston’s shot selection in that game:

3-point shots: 23-70, 32.9%, 69 points
2-point shots: 22-35, 62.9%, 44 points
foul shots: 29-34, 85.3%, 29 points.

Rockets took twice as many 3-point shots as 2-point shots, but they also lost. Gerald Green played 41:00 in this game, was 5-15 from floor, all 3-point shots.

3) When James Harden scored 115 points in consecutive games during the week, none of the 33 baskets he scored in those games were assisted. Lot of holding the ball, 1-on-1 play. Last time Harden scored less than 30 points in a game was December 11, vs Portland. Rockets are 14-5 in 19 games since that night.

2) This made me feel old; there is a high school game on ESPNU Monday, with Sierra Canyon HS in the LA area; Kenyon Martin Jr is a senior on that team. It seems like 2 or 3 years ago that Martin was playing ball at Cincinnati, and then in the NBA. Good luck to the young man.

1) ESPN’s Joe Lunardi does his Bracketology thing for the NCAA tournament every day; he came up with teams from these conferences: Big 14 (10), ACC (8), Big X (7), SEC (6), Big East (5), American (4), A-14 (2), Pac-12 (2).

All the other leagues, the conference tournament will be the deciding factor, unless Nevada loses in the Mountain West, then they would get two teams.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHARLOTTE (22 - 23) at INDIANA (30 - 15) - 1/20/2019, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 75-57 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 5-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 5-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHOENIX (11 - 36) at MINNESOTA (21 - 24) - 1/20/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 30-47 ATS (-21.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games in January games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) after allowing 130 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 4-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-3 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CLIPPERS (24 - 21) at SAN ANTONIO (27 - 20) - 1/20/2019, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 5-5 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, January 20

Hornets won their last three games, are 2-6-1 vs spread in last nine road games. Three of their last four games stayed under. Pacers won three of their last four games, are 5-2 vs spread if they played night before. Nine of their last 11 games went over. Home side won eight of last ten Charlotte-Indiana games; Hornets are 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Indiana. Three of last four series games went over the total.

Suns lost 10 of their last 12 games, are 3-2-1 vs spread if they played night before; four of their last six games stayed under the total. Timberwolves lost three of their last four games, are 2-3 vs spread since the coaching change (over 4-1). Minnesota won six of its last nine games with Phoenix; Suns are 2-1-1 vs spread in last four visits to Twin Cities- over is 3-1 in last four series games played here.

Clippers lost their last five games (0-5 vs spread); they covered three of last four road games. Four of their last five games stayed under. San Antonio won 16 of its last 22 games, splitting last six; Spurs are 7-1 vs spread in last eight home games. Over is 10-6 in their last 16 games. Home side won five of last six Clipper-Spur games; Clippers are 0-3 vs spread in last three visits to the Alamo. Five of last six series games went over.




NBA

Sunday, January 20

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Charlotte is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Charlotte's last 12 games on the road
Charlotte is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Indiana
Charlotte is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Indiana
Charlotte is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Indiana is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indiana's last 11 games
Indiana is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 12 games at home
Indiana is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Charlotte
Indiana is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Charlotte
Indiana is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte

Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Phoenix is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 6 games
Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Phoenix is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Phoenix is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Phoenix is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Phoenix is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Phoenix is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Phoenix's last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota Timberwolves
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Minnesota's last 16 games
Minnesota is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games at home
Minnesota is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
Minnesota is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Phoenix
Minnesota is 5-10-2 ATS in its last 17 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing at home against Phoenix

Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Clippers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 6 games on the road
LA Clippers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
LA Clippers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing San Antonio
LA Clippers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
LA Clippers is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games
San Antonio is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
San Antonio is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 12 games at home
San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
San Antonio is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
San Antonio is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
San Antonio is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against LA Clippers


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, January 20


Charlotte @ Indiana

Game 501-502
January 20, 2019 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
121.150
Indiana
126.227
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 5
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 7 1/2
219
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(+7 1/2); Over

Phoenix @ Minnesota

Game 503-504
January 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
107.235
Minnesota
121.308
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 15
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 11
227 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-11); Over

LA Clippers @ San Antonio

Game 505-506
January 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
115.116
San Antonio
125.644
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 10 1/2
225
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 8 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-8 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 20
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHA at IND 06:00 PM
IND -7.5
O 218.0

PHO at MIN 07:00 PM
MIN -12.0
U 230.0

LAC at SA 07:00 PM
SA -8.5
O 222.0

[Udog]

Hoop Trends - Sunday
Vince Akins

PLAY-ON TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Pacers are 12-0 ATS (12.04 ppg) as a home favorite when seeking same season revenge for a road loss.

PLAY-AGAINST TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Clippers are 0-11 ATS (-8.73 ppg) with less than two days rest off a double-digit home loss when they are facing a team that is averaging at least 24 assists per game.

TOTAL TREND OF THE DAY - OVER:

-- The Timberwolves are 11-0 OU (+13.64 ppg) at home with rest off a loss as a home favorite when they are facing a team that is getting less than 25 percent of their rebounds on the offensive end.

TOTAL TREND OF THE DAY - UNDER:

-- The Pacers are 0-13 OU (-18.12 ppg) as a favorite with no rest off a double-digit win when they are facing a team that is averaging more than five blocks per game.

PLAYER-BASED TRENDS:

-- The Timberwolves are 10-0 ATS (+8.70 ppg) at home after a game in which Karl Anthony Towns was their high scorer.

-- The Pacers are 0-11 OU (-13.95 ppg) at home off a win in which Thaddeus Young took fewer than 10 shots.

[Udog]

By: Monique Vág



Limiting their best player

In the earlier meeting this year between the Hornets and Pacers, Charlotte guard Kemba Walker struggled to find his shot, taking only 10 field goal attempts and connecting on five. Today he might have a similar shooting day versus a Pacers defense that is one of the best at defending opposing point guards allowing only 18.1 points a game on 40.6 shooting. Look for Indiana to keep Walker in check and back Under his point total of 23.5.


Lock down defense at home

The Pacers have the top ranked defense in opponent points per game and allow an average of only 98.1 points per game on 42.4 percent shooting at home.

Charlotte has struggled playing on the road at Bankers Life Fieldhouse winning only three of the last 18 games in the head-to-head, with the Under hitting in five straight contests. Look for Indiana to keep the Hornets offense in check and back Under the Hornets team total of 106.


Short-handed struggles

The Clippers have lost seven of their last ten games, including five straight. The Clips travel to San Antonio to take on the Spurs boasting an 18-6 record on their home court. The Clippers have posted a 7-18 record over the last 25 games in the head-to-head, and if they want to win today they will have to do so shorthanded without two key players in Danilo Gallinari and reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Lou Williams.

Bet the Spurs to find success offensively versus a Clippers defense allowing an average of 120.7 points per game over their most recent three. Take San Antonio's team total Over 114.5.


Happy to be home

With injuries to two of the Clippers top offensive players, there is a serious lack of depth especially on the offensive end. It will be difficult to put up points versus a Spurs team defensively allowing only 105.6 points per game on their home court.

Look for the Spurs to take advantage of the shorthanded Clippers as the Spurs build off their 7-1 ATS record at home over their most recent eight and cover as 8-point favorites.


The KAT is out of the bag

The Phoenix Suns have been one of the worst teams at defending opposing centers allowing an average of 25.8 points per game on 55 percent shooting and 16.4 rebounds. This is an ideal spot for Karl-Anthony Towns as the Timberwolves host the Suns. Towns put up 28 points, 12 rebounds and four assists the last time these two sides met up on December 15.

Two nights ago against the Spurs, Towns scored 23 points in just 21 minutes as he was in foul trouble for most of the second half before fouling out in the fourth quarter. If Towns can stay out of foul trouble, he will have an huge impact on both sides of the ball. Bet Over his points, rebounds, assists total of 40.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Derrick Rose lifts Timberwolves past Suns, 116-114
January 20, 2019
By The Associated Press

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) Derrick Rose hit an 18-footer with 0.6 seconds left to give the Minnesota Timberwolves a 116-114 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Sunday night.

Rose scored 29 of his 31 points in the seconds to help Minnesota overcome an 11-point deficit.

Karl-Anthony Towns had 28 of his 30 points in the first half for Minnesota. With Towns struggling against double-teams in the second, Rose kept the Wolves in the game on 11-for-18 shooting in the half.

T.J. Warren led Phoenix with 21 points and Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre, Jr. each added 18. Warren's last-second corner 3 hit off the side of the backboard.

CLIPPRS 103, SPURS 95

SAN ANTONIO (AP) - Tobias Harris had 27 points, nine rebounds and nine assists and Los Angeles beat San Antonio to snap a five-game losing streak.

The Clippers led for all but 14 seconds in handing the Spurs their second straight loss at home.

LaMarcus Aldridge had 30 points and 14 rebounds for San Antonio. The Spurs had 18 turnovers.

Patrick Beverly added 18 points, 12 rebounds and five assists for the Clippers. Montrezl Harrell also had 18 points, and Avery Bradley had 15.

PACERS 120, HORNETS 95

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Victor Oladipo scored 21 points and Darren Collison added 19 points and nine assists Sunday, leading Indiana past Charlotte.

Indiana has won four of five to improve to 16 games over .500 for the first time since the end of 2013-14. Kemba Walker had 23 points for Charlotte.

[StarDust Bum]

JANUARY'S OPINION AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

01/20/2019 1-4-1 20.00% -17.00
01/19/2019 10-6-0 62.50% +17.00
01/18/2019 10-3-0 76.92% +33.50
01/17/2019 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
01/16/2019 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
01/15/2019 8-3-1 72.73% +23.50
01/14/2019 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
01/13/2019...... 4-10-0 .....28.57%... -35.00
01/12/2019 2-11-0 15.38% -50.50
01/11/2019 12-6-0 66.67% +27.00
01/10/2019 3-4-0 42.85% -7.00
01/09/2019 10-8-1 55.56% +6.00
01/08/2019 8-8-0 50.00% -4.00
01/07/2019 7-9-0 43.75% -14.50
01/06/2019 4-7-0 36.36% -18.50
01/05/2019 9-7-0 56.25% +6.50
01/04/2019 10-7-0 58.82% +11.50
01/03/2019 4-2-0 66.67% +9.00
01/02/2019 13-5-0 72.22% +37.50
01/01/2019 3-7-0 30.00% -23.50


Totals..........132-120-0......52.38%%..-10.70


NBA BEST BETS:

DATE......................ATS...................UN ITS...................O/U...................UNITS..............TOTAL

01/20/2019...........1 - 2..................-6.00.....................0 - 3.................-16.50.............-22.50
01/19/2019...........2 - 2..................-1.00.....................7 - 2.................+24.00...........+23.00
01/18/2019...........5 - 0..................+25.00..................3 - 3.................-1.50..............+23.50
01/17/2019...........2 - 1..................+4.50....................2 - 1.................+4.50.............+9.00
01/16/2019...........0 - 3..................-16.50...................4 - 4.................-2.00..............-18.50
01/15/2019...........0 - 3..................-16.50...................5 - 0.................+25.00...........+8.50
01/14/2019...........2 - 2..................-1.00.....................2 - 2..................-1.00.............-2.00
01/13/2019 ..........1 - 4..................-17.00...................1 - 4..................-17.00...........-34.00
01/12/2019...........0 - 4..................-22.00...................2 - 5..................-17.50............-39.50
01/11/2019...........3 - 1..................+9.50....................6 - 3.................+13.50...........+23.00
01/10/2019...........2 - 1..................+4.50....................1 - 3.................-11.50.............-7.00
01/09/2019...........1 - 2...................-6.00....................5 - 3.................+8.50..............+2.50
01/08/2019...........2 - 2...................-1.00....................3 - 3..................-1.50...............-2.50
01/07/2019...........4 - 2..................+9.00....................3 - 3..................-1.50...............+7.50
01/06/2019...........2 - 1..................+4.50....................2 - 3.................-6.50................-2.00
01/05/2019...........2 - 1..................+4.50....................3 - 8.................-12.50...............-8.00
01/04/2019...........0 - 3..................-16.50....................6 - 2.................+19.00............+2.50
01/03/2019...........3 - 0..................+15.00...................1 - 2.................-6.00...............+9.00
01/02/2019...........4 - 1..................+14.50...................6 - 2.................+19.00............+33.50
01/01/2019...........1 - 2...................-6.00.....................1 - 2..................-6.00...............-12.00

Totals.................37 - 39.................-18.50....................63 - 58..............+12.50...........-6.00

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

New England in the Super Bowl under Brady/Belichick:

2001: W20-17 (+14) vs St Louis

2003: W32-29 (-7) vs Carolina

2004: W24-21 (-7) vs Philadelphia

2007: L14-17 (-12) vs NY Giants

2011: L17-21 (-3) vs NY Giants

2014: W28-24 (-1) vs Seattle

2016: W34-28 OT (-3) vs Atlanta

2017: L33-41 (-4.5) vs Philadelphia


**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a frigid weekend…….

13) My opinion is that I write better when I’m annoyed, so today’s article might be pretty terrible, because this was a great freakin’ weekend.

— The weather here was awful all weekend, we had a foot of snow, but DirecTV never went out, except for a couple of the movie channels late Saturday night.
— My car started in 0 degree weather Sunday night, because I got a new battery Thursday.
— Watched a ton of basketball Saturday; seems like it was a week ago.
— Oh yeah, the Rams are going to the Super Bowl!!! Tremendous!!!

12) Rams 26, Saints 23 OT— Not many games where the winning team led for 0:00 the whole game, except after the last play. This game turned on a fake punt by the Rams when they trailed 13-0 with 14:23 left in 2nd quarter- they looked like a dead team until then.

Scouting is important in football; I had never heard of Missouri Western University until the Rams drafted a kicker from Missouri Western in the 6th round of the 2012 draft. Rams were in St Louis at the time; not sure if that helped them find Greg Zuerlein, but they did, and boy did that pay off Sunday night in the Superdome.

Greg the Leg booted a 48-yard FG to tie the game, a 57-yard FG to win it as the Rams, who did not lead at any point in regulation, won their 4th NFC title, 26-23.

11) I mention this every so often, but the NFL is awesome because the difference between the winning and losing teams is so often EXTREMELY thin.

Go back to 2016, the Rams were 4-5 when they decided to give Jared Goff his first NFL start; they were playing Miami at home, and led 10-0 with 5:00 left. If they win the game, they’re 5-5, everyone is happy, and they probably finish 7-9 at worst- they have said since then if they had wound up 7-9 that year, they wouldn’t have fired Jeff Fisher.

Miami won that game 13-10, the Rams didn’t win another game that season and a coaching change was made. And what a change it has been!!!

They wouldn’t have hired Sean McVay if they finished 7-9, so thank the good Lord they blew that 10-0 lead against the Dolphins. Or else today’s fun wouldn’t have happened.

11) Patriots 37, Chiefs 31 OT— What a day for the NFL; two overtimes in conference title games when the weather in lot of the country was terrible. TV ratings have to be huge. Patriots head to their 11th Super Bowl.

Tony Romo is amazingly good on TV, the best NFL TV analyst ever; he calls out plays before they happen, the way Hank Stram used to do working Monday night games on the radio.

Tough night for the replay center; awful lot of close replay decisions in this game.

10) SUNY-Morrisville plans to roll out a program next fall that will teach their students how to grow marijuana. Anticipation of a Cannabis Industry Minor is a result of the expectation that New York is expected to legalize recreational marijuana soon.

9) Nick Foles came up four snaps short of a $1M bonus for playing in 33% of Philly’s snaps, but the Eagles did the right thing and gave Foles the $1M anyway.

8) Only four of the first 29 Mountain West basketball games were decided by fewer than ten points. League has slipped a decent amount the last couple years.

7) Providence 79, Marquette 68— Marquette retired Dwyane Wade’s #3 jersey at halftime of this game. Not sure what took them so long, but better late than never.

6) Boston College 87, Florida State 82— Sometimes you lose a game and it comes with a hangover; Seminoles lost at home to Duke by a hoop, then went on road and lost at both Pitt and Boston College. FSU was 12-1 vs non-conference schedule #113, but is 1-4 in the ACC.

Speaking of which……..

5) Monmouth 83, Iona 81— Hawks are 5-2 in the MAAC, after going 1-12 in pre-conference games; Iona is 4-2 in the MAAC, after going 2-9 in pre-conference games.

In other words, the MAAC sucks this year.

4) Very interesting conversation during the Kansas-West Virginia game Saturday, with Fran Fraschilla giving two solid reasons why Canada is producing more and more top college hoop prospects.

a) Vince Carter and the Toronto Raptors inspired a lot of Canadians to enjoy basketball more, hoops has become a bigger part of the culture north of the border.

b) Canada’s more liberal immigration laws have resulted in more people from the Caribbean and Africa winding up in Canada.

3) Timberwolves 116, Suns 114— Minnesota wins on a fadeaway jumper by Derrick Rose with 0:00.6 left; Wolves are being coached by Flip Saunders’ 32-year old son now- they’ve played lot of high-scoring games since he took over from Tom Thibodeau.

2) Basketball player named Isaiah Stewart from Rochester chose Washington over Duke, as Mike Hopkins’ connections to central New York pay off again.

1) Rams opened as a 1-point favorite in the Super Bowl, but professional bettors dumped a lot of money on New England, so now the Patriots are -2 as I type this late Sunday night. The total is 59. Lets hope those pros are wrong with their bets

[StarDust Bum]

MLK Day Essentials
Tony Mejia

Martin Luther King Day slate

Oklahoma City (-8, 151) at New York, 12:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV: The opening game on the 11-game slate probably won’t be filled with the emotion the Thunder’s most recent outing featured – I can’t imagine Russell Westbrook going after former teammate Enes Kanter the way he did Joel Embiid – which means complacency could be an obstacle for the visitors. After all, OKC just wrapped up a stretch where they faced a 76ers team they have beef with, a pair of games against the hated Lakers, a visit to division rival Portland and home-and-home sets against the Mavs and Spurs. They’re just 5-6 in the previous 11 games and have lost on the road in Dallas, San Antonio and Atlanta, which tells you a lack of focus in opposing arena has been an issue. Westbrook has only shot over 50 percent from the field in a game once since Dec. 30 and has shot under 40 percent six times and is 11-for-56 from 3-point range. His slump has made it easier for him to defer to Paul George but hasn’t made them a very cover-friendly group since the Thunder is just 2-5 ATS over their last seven. Alex Abrines remains sidelined, so look for Abdel Nader to continue getting minutes off the Thunder bench. The ‘over’ has prevailed in five of their last six games.

Last time we saw the Knicks, Allonzo Trier was being rightfully called for goal-tending at the buzzer to doom New York to a 1-point loss in London in a game they led by double-digits entering the fourth. Emmanuel Mudiay led the way with 25 points but had just two assists and five turnovers, providing a reminder of why it is the Knicks rank dead last in the NBA in assists. Kanter should have fresh legs in his return to the lineup after not accompanying the team to Europe for fear of retribution from supporters of Turkish president Erdogan. He hasn’t played since Jan. 8 and is averaging 15.8 points and 14.3 rebounds this month, so we should see David Fizdale give him substantial work against former teammate Steven Adams. The Knicks have only won twice in the last 20 games, dropping all eight games at Madison Square Garden since their stunning OT upset of the Bucks on Dec. 1. They’ve only covered in one them, last Monday’s 108-105 loss to Philadelphia. Although New York has lost five of six to the Thunder, it did win last season’s matchup at the Garden 107-96 in a game best remembered for Carmelo Anthony’s brutal 5-for-18 shooting performance. Michael Beasley, now with the Lakers, scored 30 points. Of the nine Knicks who suited up in the win, only Kanter, Courtney Lee and Frank Ntilikina remain. New York has the fewest home wins (4) in the NBA.

Chicago (-3.5, 125) at Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET: The Cavs rank next-to-last in the league in assists while the Cavs are 27th, so this might be a good spot to blindly bet the under if it weren’t for Cleveland having been torched for 111 or more points in 11 of its last 12 games. The ‘over’ has actually prevailed in seven of the last eight games involving the Bulls, who have hit the century mark in eight consecutive contests after opening 2019 with a 112-84 loss to Orlando. For more on over/unders, be sure to check out VegasInsider expert Chris David’s “Total Talk” that takes a close look at all of the Martin Luther King Day numbers.

Chicago has dropped 10 straight, failing to cover in six of the games. The Bulls just lost center Wendell Carter, Jr. to a thumb injury that threatens to cut his rookie season short if he opts for surgery, so Robin Lopez and Bobby Portis are expected to get the bulk of the minutes in the middle alongside Lauri Markkanen. The Cavs have lost 15 of 16 and haven’t won at home since Dec. 12. Their average margin of defeat on their six-game trip was 16.5 points and forwards Larry Nance, Jr. and David Nwaba remain sidelined. Tristan Thompson has been dealing with a sore foot but has a chance to return for this one, so be aware of his playing status prior to wagering here since the Cavs aren’t terrible when their top rebounder starts in the middle. The Bulls have won both meetings between these teams so far after falling in all four games against the LeBron James-led version last season.

Detroit at Washington (-3.5, 125), 2 p.m. ET: The Wizards return from London looking to build on a thrilling comeback and is 6-4 since John Wall was lost for the season, having registered upsets against the Bucks, 76ers and Thunder over the past few weeks. In the 12 games he’s played without Wall this season, Beal is averaging 33.7 points, 6.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists. He’s getting the ball out quickly when extra bodies run his way and has even racked up 22 steals over his last nine outings. The seventh-year guard is on pace to set career-highs in every statistical category but looks to bounce back from shooting 10-for-29 at O2 Arena. He shoots it better at home than on the road, averaging 26.0 points with a clip of nearly 38 percent from 3-point range, so the Pistons are going to have to know where he is at all times.

Since Washington doesn’t have much beyond rookie Thomas Bryant inside, it would really benefit the Pistons to get the NBA’s leading rebounder back in the mix if he can make it through concussion protocol. Check on Andre Drummond’s ability prior to wagering here since Detroit would have a major edge to exploit if Drummond is back with fresh legs and Zaza Pauchila, also looking spry after recently returning from an extended absence, helps to anchor the second unit. Blake Griffin figures to face multiple defenders in Trevor Ariza, Jeff Green, Otto Porter and Sam Dekker as Scott Brooks look to wear him down. Griffin scored 38 points in Saturday’s loss to Sacramento that had the Pistons really salty afterwards due to what they felt were officiating mistakes. Dwane Casey shouldn’t have many problems motivating them for this matinee. Griffin has score 30 or more points six of his last eight games. The ‘under’ has prevailed in six of the last seven involving Detroit.

Dallas at Milwaukee (-12.5, 144), 2 p.m. ET: The Mavericks never quit in Indiana. Even in the final seconds, Dirk Nowitzki was still trying to appease fans at Bankers Life Fieldhouse who were hoping to see one last bucket from him on his only stop in town. Dallas did have one frustrating evening. Luka Doncic came up empty on all five of his 3-pointers, shooting 3-for-14. He was so annoyed he wound up picking up two technical and being ejected. Wesley Matthews is playing banged up and rookie Jalen Brunson is doing his best to keep the drop-off on the second unit after losing J.J. Barea for the season. The answer may ultimately be giving Dennis Smith, Jr. Barea’s gig full-time, but he remains out one more game after separating himself from the team in anticipation of a trade that hasn’t come. Dallas has only topped 105 points three times over its last 12 games, so the ‘under’ is on a 9-2-1 run. That figures to be tested against a Bucks team that ranks second in the NBA with 117.6 points per game.

Dallas is a brutal 4-19 on the road, so visiting the team that shares the NBA’s top home mark with Toronto and Denver is one reason a lopsided result is expected. Milwaukee has been excellent in its new downtown arena and leads the league in margin of victory, covering in 11 of 13 games after beating Orlando by 10 points on Saturday night while laying 9.5. Eric Bledsoe scored a season-high 30 points and the Bucks looked visibly fresh, benefiting by getting into Orlando early on Thursday and having three days of rest. They’ll have three more days off before hosting Charlotte on Thursday, so the team with the league’s top record is really getting recharged.

Orlando at Atlanta (-3.5, 137), 3 p.m. ET, NBA TV: Magic head coach Steve Clifford has been disappointed in his team’s defense over the past few weeks. Since blowing out the Bulls on Jan. 2, Orlando has allowed at least 103 points in nine straight. The ‘over’ has come in four straight times, as Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and Mo Bamba have all been out of the lineup. Gordon’s back locked up on him Friday night and he was absent against the Bucks on Saturday, but his possible return for this one could mean the Magic will be whole again for the first time in a few weeks. With the trade deadline approaching, Orlando must figure out what it plans to do with center Nikola Vucevic and shooter Terrence Ross, who have been the team’s most consistent performers over the past month or two but whose contract expire at season’s end. I expect both to be traded unless the Magic makes one big push on the court the next few weeks. They enter Monday’s action only ahead of the Hawks in the Southeast Division, but just four games back of first-place Miami.

The Hawks have home wins over the Heat and Thunder this month and didn’t embarrass themselves against the Bucks and Celtics in losses, so the kids are taking to State Farm Arena nicely. Rookies Trae Young and Kevin Huerter have found some consistency and are starting to get the better of veterans, while power forward John Collins is averaging a double-double rank him right up there with the East’s top power forwards. With center Dewayne Dedmon and backup point guard Jeremy Lin over an illness that spread through the team, the Hawks could be dangerous since they’ll view this as a must-win considering they’re leaving town for a season-long seven-game roadie that will have them out of town until they get back Feb. 5. This is the first meeting between these Southeast Division squads. They’ve split their four games in each of the last three seasons.

Sacramento at Brooklyn (-13.5, 131.5), 3:30 p.m. ET: We’ll see how Buddy Hield’s improbable game-winner in Detroit impacts the Kings this week since it kept them from opening a season-long six-game trip with consecutive defeats. Sacramento played poorly and was behind most of the night against the Pistons despite not having to deal with Drummond, so the verdict is still out on whether to trust them on the road since a Hield scoring flurry essentially stole Saturday’s game in the fourth quarter. The Kings have won four of five and can match a season-best 5-1 run that they’ve already accomplished twice if they find a way to win in Brooklyn. Hield scored 15 points in less than four minutes, while De’Aaron Fox makes like difficult for everyone with his speed and defense, so the Kings may have a fighting chance in most of these games and haven’t been on the road long enough for the grind to set in.

The Nets won’t be a pushover, having pulled off three straight upsets over the Celtics, Rockets and Magic. Since Dec. 7, Brooklyn is 16-5 straight up and 15-6 against the number. D’Angelo Russell comes off a 40-point game in Orlando in which he hit eight 3-pointers, while center Jarrett Allen has averaged 15.0 points, 15.3 rebounds and 3.7 blocks in helping pull off last week’s three surprises. These are the two teams currently above .500 that no one saw coming, so this is one matchup worth keeping an eye on. The ‘under’ has prevailed in the last seven Sacramento games.

New Orleans (-1, 142) at Memphis, 5:30 p.m. ET, TNT: Marc Gasol’s back was too stiff to play on Saturday and the Grizzlies promptly went out and suffered a 119-90 loss in the first game he’s missed this season. Considering all the nagging injuries he’s dealt with this season, it’s surprising he’s gutted things out to suit up night after night, but he and point guard Mike Conley appear to be losing patience with the direction of the team. Memphis has lost 16 of 19 since Dec. 14. Although forwards Jaren Jackson, Jr., Kyle Anderson and JaMychal Green have played well in spurts and guards Shelvin Mack and Garrett Temple have been serviceable, that’s simply not enough firepower to withstand the grind. Considering the Griz are “Team Grit and Grind,” that’s a problem. Gasol is on track to shoot under 40 percent from the field for the second straight month, which for a center of his skill level, suggests he’s not being utilized properly. Anderson is sidelined with an ankle sprain, so the only bright side to this week is that they’ll play the next five games at FedEx Forum and that the run starts against a Pelicans team that just lost Anthony Davis for a week or two.

Davis sprained a finger, which means the Pelicans will have to survive without their star, who they’re already 1-4 without when he’s missed a game here and there this season. It will help that they’ve got forward Nikola Mirotic and point guard Elfrid Payton back up to speed and playing without minutes restrictions to help Jrue Holiday and Julius Randle keep the ship from sinking. There are already 11 teams ahead of New Orleans in the Western Conference standings, so if they fade completely over the next five or six games, listening to offers for Davis may be more appealing than the team claiming there’s no way they’re trading him at the deadline currently believes.

Miami at Boston (-6.5, 132.5), 6 p.m. ET: The Celtics have already won three straight and will spend the rest of the month in town playing games at TD Garden, so there’s a real opportunity for them to go on a run. After dealing with knee soreness for most of the season’s opening half, Al Horford looks like he’s rounding into form despite his minutes still being monitored. Kyrie Irving is in a great flow and Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have been much sharper than they were early in the season. With Gordon Hayward upgraded to ‘probable’ after missing their visit to Atlanta over the weekend for personal reasons, so Brad Stevens will have to keep his guys happy with their playing time but has all the ingredients to make their push into the East’s top-four. Currently on the outside looking, Boston has been sharper offensively of late and has been great at home, coming into this one with wins in 17 of 22.

The Heat are one of four Eastern Conference teams with a winning road record and come off a weekend win in Chicago to snap a two-game skid that opened a stretch of six of seven games being played outside South Florida. They’ll return home post-game to host the Clippers on Wednesday before going back to living out of a suitcase as a likely road favorite at Cleveland and New York. Miami leads the Southeast Division and will be looking to avoid slipping back to .500. It crushed Boston 115-99 thanks to great play from the Dwyane Wade-led bench and the continued emergence of Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson.

Houston at Philadelphia (-3.5, 143), 8 p.m. ET, TNT: James Harden’s magical run continued on Saturday even though it looked like the Lakers were finally going to put an end to his run of consecutive 30-point games at 18. They were up by 21 points and doing a nice job making other Rockets trying to beat them, but an injury to Lonzo Ball opened the door and Harden ended up leading a comeback, finishing with 48 points after teaming with Eric Gordon to dominate the end of regulation and overtime. Harden is averaging 44.4 points per game in January. Before the Lakers slowed him down, he scored 57 against the Grizzlies and then poured in 58 in a loss to the Nets. With Gordon back, Gerald Green stepping up and Austin Rivers now making contributions off the bench, Houston is doing its best to try and overcome the extended absence of point guard Chris Paul and center Clint Capela.

Not having a mobile, active shot blocker to help challenge Joel Embiid could prove crippling for the Rockets as the visit Philadelphia for the first meeting between the teams this season. The teams split a pair of meetings way back in October of 2018 and haven’t seen each other since, so it’s really going to be fun to see how Ben Simmons fares against Harden. Jimmy Butler will also see a lot of Harden and prides himself on his defensive prowess, so Harden’s isolations against him will be must-see TV. Butler is from Houston and will expect to have this assignment, so as long as he stays out of foul trouble, we should see playoff-type defense show up on Martin Luther King Day. The 76ers come off a contentious loss to Oklahoma City on a frustrating Paul George game-winning 4-point play, so there’s no chance they won’t be ready to play this nationally-televised showdown that will command the most eyeballs on a busy day of basketball.

Portland at Utah (-16, 158.5), 9 p.m. ET: The Jazz have responded to the extended absence of point guards Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and Raul Neto by handing the ball to Donovan Mitchell and challenging him to be great. Although he’s still struggled with his shot for stretches, he’s been aggressive getting to the rim and has been the catalyst for Utah’s seven-game winning streak. After shooting 8-for-24 in his team’s last loss, a 114-102 setback in Milwaukee on Nov. 7, Mitchell has shot just under 50 percent from the field during the win streak while averaging 25.7 points and 4.8 assists. Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale and Jae Crowder have also played major roles, while center Rudy Gobert has made 67 percent of his shots while averaging 17.4 points and 19.2 rebounds this month.

Portland lost its first two meetings against the Jazz by a combined 51 points, so we’ll find out tonight whether the Jazz are simply a bad matchup for its personnel. Rubio and Exum were excellent in the wins, so their absence here makes this a completely different matchup for Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, who is starting to come out of his slump. Jusuf Nurkic has been a stat-stuffing machine most of the month, he’s averaged just 8.5 points on 42 percent shooting against the length of Gobert. Small forwards Jake Layman and Mo Harkless come off big games in a weekend win over New Orleans, so Terry Stotts has his group at full strength. That’s a major development since the Trail Blazers bench has really struggled against Utah. The Blazers won last season’s final two meetings in blowout fashion but have otherwise lost six of nine in the series. The ‘under’ has hit in five of seven Utah games and prevailed in both head-to-head matchups vs. Portland.

Golden State at (-3.5, 125) L.A. Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT: DeMarcus Cousins’ debut went smoothly despite the fact he fouled out in 15 minutes. He hit three of his four 3-point attempts, taking advantage of clean looks his new teammates will reliably provide. He’ll be back at Staples Center to face the Lakers and probably won’t play more than 20 minutes again tonight, but it will be interesting to see him bang with JaVale McGee, Tyson Chandler and surprising third-year center Ivica Zubac, who has averaged 21.5 points and 9.5 boards while shooting 16-for-20 over the last two contests. Luke Walton will have to put together a new temporary rotation with LeBron James and Rajon Rondo still out and Lonzo Ball now on the mend after a nasty ankle sprain suffered on Saturday night. Brandon Ingram will likely run the offense on the first team while Lance Stephenson should get the bulk of the minutes running the show on the second unit. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Josh Hart also figure to get major minutes, so the Lakers will certainly have a patchwork group as they face what will likely be an inspired group of Warriors.

Although beating the Lakers without LeBron is going to be hollow revenge, Golden State still wants to impose its will on whoever remains in Purple and Gold considering L.A. spoiled Christmas night with a 127-101 rout. Curry is coming off one of his worst shooting games since returning to the lineup on Dec. 1, finishing just 3-for-11 from 3-point range. He’s shot over 45 percent from 3-point range in six of his last nine, knocking down at least eight from beyond the arc in the same game on four occasions. Without Ball to help shadow Curry, this could get ugly if the Warriors find the range early. Golden State has won nine of 10 and have helped deliver the ‘over’ in seven of those games. The 112 points the Dubs managed against the Clippers marked their lowest output of 2019, but it’s too early to say that had anything to do with catering to Cousins given Curry’s off night and the blowout minimizing the need to put their foot on the gas in the fourth quarter.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - MLK Day
Chris David

The NBA picks up the pace Monday for the Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday with 11 games, which begins at 12:00 p.m. ET. NBATV will provide a nationally televised double-header early before TNT closes the night with a triple-header. Instead of focusing on the sides, listed below is my quick handicap on every total.

(Over/Under Results in Parenthesis)

Oklahoma City (21-23-1) at New York (23-21): Oklahoma City enters this game on a 5-1 ‘over’ run behind an offense averaging 126.1 points per game. If the Thunder hit that number again Monday, you’ll need the Knicks to bust the century mark and that’s easier said than done for this squad. New York is only averaging 101.4 PPG in its last five and that’s led to a 4-1 ‘under’ record. The pair played in Oklahoma City on Nov. 14 and the Thunder blasted the Knicks 128-103 and the ‘over’ was never in doubt. Even though OKC has been leaning to the high side recently, the club has watched the ‘under’ go 16-8 (67%) away from home.

Chicago (19-26-1) at Cleveland (25-22): The total certainly looks like the better investment since both teams have been atrocious this season. The pair went ‘over’ (201 ½) in their recent meeting on Dec. 23 from Cleveland as the Bulls won 112-92. In the early November clash, Chicago won 99-98 at home and the ‘under’ (212) was never in doubt. For the third installment, we’re looking at a total of 213 ½. The Cavaliers have leaned to the ‘over’ (14-8) at home and they can’t stop anybody defensively lately. In 2019, Cleveland has allowed 123.4 PPG and that’s led to an 8-2 ‘over’ mark. The good news for the Cavs is that Chicago (101 PPG) can’t score.

Detroit (19-25-1) at Washington (26-19): Since point guard John Wall was ruled ‘out’ for the season, the Wizards have seen their total results end in a stalemate (5-5) through 10 games. The Wizards are averaging more points (118.6) at home and Detroit could be without rim protector Andre Drummond (nose) for this game. Washington has the second worst scoring defense (116.5 PPG) in the league yet Detroit hasn’t shown much offense (105 PPG) this season. The Pistons have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 in their last seven games. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four games in this series, which includes a 106-95 home win by the Pistons on Dec. 26.

Dallas (20-23-2) at Milwaukee (22-22-1): This is the first meeting between the pair this season and oddsmakers are expecting a shootout with an opener of 227 ½. I have the confidence in the Bucks to score at home (120.6) but I’m hesitant to back Dallas. The Mavericks have come back to life with a 5-14 record in their last 19 games. In its previous five games against winning clubs on the road, Dallas is only averaging 99 PPG.

Orlando (20-26) at Atlanta (24-21): This will be the first encounter between these Southeast foes this season. In the previous campaign, the pair saw all four of their total outcomes split (2-2). The Magic’s offense (104.3) hasn’t traveled well and that’s led to a 13-8 ‘under’ record. They do enter this game on a 4-0 ‘over’ run but three of those games were in Florida. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the high side streak continue knowing Atlanta owns the worst defense (117.7 PPG) in the league.

Sacramento (27-19) at Brooklyn (25-22): This total opened 230 and even though the ‘over’ has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between the pair, they’ve only combined to eclipse this number once during this span. The Kings own the best ‘over’ mark on the road (16-6) this season but the ‘under’ has cashed in each of their first two games on their current six-game road trip. Sacramento’s defense has been sharp in their last seven games, holding teams to 104.4 PPG and that’s led to a 7-0 ‘under’ mark. This is a nice test against the Nets, who have turned their season around after an 8-18 start. Since then, Brooklyn has gone 16-5 behind an offense that’s averaging 115.1 PPG. The Nets have only played three home games in January and the ‘under’ has gone 2-1.

New Orleans (25-21) at Memphis (18-28): The ‘under’ cashed in each of the first two meetings between the pair this season and the total closed 214 in both games. This isn’t an easy total to handicap since New Orleans won’t have All-Star Anthony Davis, who is expected to miss 1-2 weeks with a finger sprain. The Pelicans have gone 1-4 without Davis in the lineup this season and the defense has allowed 123.6 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 4-1.

Miami (24-20) at Boston (28-18): These teams just met on Jan. 10 from South Florida and Miami ran past Boston 115-99 while the ‘over’ (212) slid in with a late surge (59 points – 4th). Boston was playing on no rest and it’s struggled in that situation this season. For the rematch the number has been pushed up to 215 and the Celtics have leaned to the ‘over’ (14-8) at TD Garden this season, especially lately. The Celtics are averaging 118.4 PPG in their last nine at home and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 7-2. The Heat have been nothing but a bully on the road this season and it’s only defeated two playoff teams (Nets, Clippers) so far. In their last two road games versus winning teams, they’ve scored 86 and 84 points.

Houston (26-19) at Philadelphia (26-21): James Harden and the Rockets have been on a roll, averaging 123.5 PPG in their last nine games. The ‘over’ has gone 6-3 during this span. On the road, Houston (107.4 PPG) hasn’t been as electric this season. It’s dropped five straight road games versus Eastern Conference foes and the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in those games. Philadelphia has connected offensively at home (118.9 PPG) and that production has led to a 14-10 ‘over’ mark. These teams have seen their totals split (2-2) in each of the last two seasons.

Portland (21-25-1) at Utah (23-24): The ‘under’ has connected in four straight meetings between the pair and that includes a 2-0 mark this season. Utah has captured two blowout wins (117-96, 120-90) in those games. The Trail Blazers are averaging 94.8 PPG in their last five trips to Salt Lake City. Portland is scoring nearly seven points less (108.5 PPG) on the road and their defense has been worse (113.9 PPG). Utah’s defense has started to pick up the intensity at home lately, allowing 96.6 PPG in their last five games albeit to four losing clubs and the Lakers without LeBron James. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 during that span.

Golden State (25-21) at L.A. Lakers (17-29-1): In the only meeting between the pair this season on Christmas, the Lakers stunned the Warriors 127-101 and the ‘under’ cashed because Golden State’s offense took the holiday off. Los Angeles lost LeBron James (groin) to an injury in that game and the team has gone 5-7 without the All-Star since. The offense has actually looked great the last two games (138, 134 points) against the Thunder and Rockets but expecting another crooked number could be tough with Lonzo Ball (ankle) joining the Los Angeles injury report. Golden State is coming off a 112-94 win over the Clippers on Saturday as DeMarcus Cousins made his debut and he actually slowed down the offense. Prior to his start, the Warriors were averaging 133.6 PPG in their previous eight games (7-1 Over). On the road, Golden State has been a solid ‘over’ (14-8) lean but the Lakers have been the best ‘under’ (17-6-1) bet in the NBA this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, January 21

Thunder lost five of their last seven games; they’re 6-4 vs spread in last 10 road games. Five of their last six games went over the total. New York lost its last five games, but covered five of last seven. Knicks are 1-7 vs spread in last eight home games. Four of their last five games went under the total. Knicks lost five of their last six games with Oklahoma City; three of last four series games went over. Thunder is 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Manhattan.

Chicago lost its last nine games (2-7 vs spread); they’re favored for first time since Nov 21 (1-1 as a F this year). Seven of their last eight games went over. Cavaliers lost 15 of their last 16 games, are 1-6 vs spread in last seven home games. Six of their last eight games went over. Bulls are 2-0 vs Cleveland this season, winning by 1-20 points; three of last four series games went over total. Chicago is 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Lake Erie.

Pistons are 3-2 in their last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine road games. Six of their last seven games stayed under. Wizards won six of their last nine games; they covered their last four home games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight home games. Home side won eight of last ten Detroit-Washington games; Pistons covered once in their last four visits to Washington. Three of last four series games stayed under.

Dallas lost six of its last eight games; they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine road games. Under is 9-2-1 in their last dozen games. Milwaukee won 11 of its last 13 games; they covered five of their last six road games. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Mavericks won eight of last their ten games with the Bucks; they’re 2-1-2 vs spread in last five visits to Milwaukee. Four of last six series games stayed under the total.

Orlando lost seven of its last nine games; they’re 3-7-1 vs spread in last 11 home games. Magic’s last four games went over. Atlanta lost seven of its last ten games; they covered three of last four home games. Three of their last four games went over. Home side won last six Magic-Hawk games; Orlando lost their last three visits to Atlanta, by 6-7-27 points. Five of last seven series games stayed under the total.

Sacramento won five of its last seven games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in last six road games. Kings’ last seven games stayed under the total. Brooklyn won six of its last nine games; they covered their last three home games. Seven of their last ten games went over. Kings won three of last four games with the Nets; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Brooklyn. Six of last eight series games went over total.

Pelicans lost three of their last four games; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11 road games. Six of their last nine games went over. Grizzlies lost 11 of their last 12 games, are 1-7 vs spread in last eight home games. Four of their last five games went over. Home side won six of last seven New Orleans-Memphis games; Pelicans are 1-3 vs spread in last four trips to Tennessee. Six of last eight series games stayed under.

Heat is 5-4 in their last nine games, 1-3 vs spread in last four road games. Over is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Boston won its last three games; they covered seven of their last eight home games. Eight of their last ten home games went over. Miami won its last three games with the Celtics, by 16-1-6 points; Heat covered their last three visits to Boston. Four of last six series games went over.

Rockets split their last eight games; they’re 3-6 vs spread in last nine road games. Eight of their last ten games went over. Philly won three of its last four games; they’re 4-5 vs spread in last nine home games. Eight of their last 11 games went over. 76ers lost eight of last nine games with Houston; four of last six series games went over total. Rockets covered once in their last five visits to Philly.

Trailblazers won six of their last eight games; they covered three of their last four road games. Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Utah won its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight home games. Seven of their last nine games stayed under. Jazz won four of last six games with Portland; last four series games stayed under. Blazers are 1-4 vs spread in their last five visits to Utah.

Warriors won their last seven games (5-2 vs spread); they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six road tilts. Seven of their last nine games went over. Lebron-less Lakers are 4-3 in their last seven games, 3-5 vs spread in last eight home games. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Golden State won seven of last eight games with the Lakers; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five series games played here. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games.