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The Bum's 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

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  • Preview: Nets (20-42) at Kings (18-43)
    Date: March 01, 2018 10:00 PM EDT


    SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- Neither the Sacramento Kings nor the Brooklyn Nets have been caught up in the controversial conversations concerning the race by the dregs of the NBA to lose games. Yet, neither team seems capable anytime soon of winning more than just an occasional contest.

    On Thursday, one of them will have to prevail. The two bottom feeders in their respective conferences face each other at the Golden 1 Center, giving each a chance to add a blip to what has seemed to be endless losing lately.

    Sacramento has lost four straight at home, and Brooklyn has dropped seven straight on the road.

    The Kings (18-43 and 14th among 15 teams in the Western Conference) have dropped five straight nine of their past 11 and are coming off a 116-99 defeat Tuesday in Portland. At home, Sacramento also has lost nine of its past 10 and 12 of its past 14.

    Their most recent loss seemed all too familiar. The Kings' offense stagnated (44.3 percent shooting, including 7 for 22 from 3-point distance) and too often looked chaotic and without rhythm.

    Sacramento averages 99 points, the second-fewest in the NBA, but has topped 100 in six of its past eight.

    "The way our offense is, you're going to have the first shot, but you're going to have that again off of just three more passes," center Willie Cauley-Stein told the Sacramento Bee. "You're going to have the same play, but where they just can't stand there, and it's just like no movement and it's kind of a mess."

    The Kings have committed themselves to their youth movement, which has created a pattern of fits and starts. They did some things very well against Portland, forcing 17 turnovers, 14 of them on steals. But they were undermined by the things they didn't do very well. Sacramento was outrebounded 47-36 and surrendered 52.4 percent shooting by the Blazers from the field.

    The status of Kings forward Garrett Temple remains questionable. He's missed two straight games with a back injury.

    The news hasn't been much better for the Nets. Brooklyn (20-42, 13th in the Eastern Conference) has dropped eight of nine, including a 129-123 decision against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday

    The Nets have several issues, primary among them their rebounding. Brooklyn allows 10.3 offensive rebounds a game, the fourth-worst mark in the NBA, and opponents grab 46 per game against them overall, the league's worst.

    Brooklyn is starting to get healthy. Forwards Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (14.2 points per game) and Caris LeVert (11.7 points) returned from lengthy absences Tuesday and have scored 21 and 24 points in their first two games back from a concussion and groin injury, respectively.

    "I feel like I'm all the way back," LeVert told the New York Post. "As far as rhythm and everything, I'm still working my way back, especially defensively trying to be in the right spots. I know the offense will come."

    Center Jahlil Okafor has missed four straight games with left calf tightness. It remains unclear whether he will play against Sacramento.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • Preview: Timberwolves (38-26) at Trail Blazers (35-26)
      Date: March 01, 2018 10:30 PM EDT


      PORTLAND, Ore. -- The Minnesota Timberwolves have gone big as they try to make up for the loss of shooting guard Jimmy Butler, who is out for at least the rest of the regular season following surgery on his right knee.

      When the Timberwolves visit Moda Center for a Thursday night matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers, they will go with 6-9 Taj Gibson, 6-10 Nemanja Bjelica and 7-foot Karl-Anthony Towns on the front line along with 6-8 Andrew Wiggins and 6-2 Jeff Teague in the backcourt.

      The addition to the starting lineup is Bjelica, a power forward who slides to small forward alongside Gibson, with Wiggins -- a natural small forward -- moving into Butler's normal spot.

      Coach Tom Thibodeau's move is a matter of adding the next-best player to his lineup, even if it means a couple players are out of position. When Butler missed action because of a sore knee in January, Bjelica started all four games and delivered an 18-point, nine-rebound performance that helped beat the Clippers 126-118 at Staples Center on Jan. 22.

      "When Jimmy went down, Belly did great for us," Taj Gibson told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "He won that Clipper game for us. He was European Player of the Year (in 2015) and he can do it all. He can dribble. He can shoot. He can put it on the floor. Belly is a talented player. I'm looking forward to him doing the job."

      In their last game, a 118-100 victory over Sacramento on Monday, Bjelica -- the Wolves' best 3-point shooter at 42.9 percent -- had 12 points, including two 3-pointers, along with seven rebounds, four steals and three assists.

      "We need everybody to contribute in that way," Thibodeau said. "Getting seven rebounds out of that position, and have that length, is a big plus for us. Just the threat of his shot opens up the floor, and he moves well without the ball. If you turn your head, Belly is going to cut. He gets us moving."

      Bjelica, who has helped Minnesota (38-26) to a 2-0 record since Butler left the lineup, isn't going to try to do too much.

      "Nobody can replace Jimmy, because he's our best player," Bjelica said. "But as a team, we can do a lot of good things. I just try to do my job."

      The problem won't be at the offensive end. Minnesota scores 111.4 points per 100 possessions, third-best in the NBA behind Houston and Golden State. But the Timberwolves are 24th in defensive rating, and Butler was their best defender.

      Thursday's game is a big one in the Western Conference playoff race. Portland (35-26) stands in fifth place, 1 1/2 games behind No. 3 Minnesota (38-26) and one game back of No. 4 San Antonio (36-25).

      Portland coach Terry Stotts said this is the tightest playoff race, from No. 3 to 10 in the West, that he has seen in 25 years coaching in the NBA.

      "There are going to be a lot of games played amongst those eight teams," he said. "That will create some separation. It may not wind up as an eight-team race, but there are going to be some interesting races no matter what happens.

      "We have nine games against teams in that group (the rest of the regular season). The team that comes out with the most wins in those games is going to be in a better position. It's going to be exciting. You're going to have a lot of significant games through the remainder of the season."

      Minnesota vs. Portland, Stotts said, "is one of those games.

      "It's an important game for both teams It's a swing game. (The Wolves) lead the season series 2-1. It could have a lot of (playoff) implications."
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • NBA knowledge

        Thursday’s NBA


        Home side won last five Laker-Miami games; Lakers are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Four of last six series games stayed under the total. LA won its last three games and seven of last ten; they’re 9-6 in last 15 games as road underdogs. Over is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Miami won its last three home games but is 3-7 in last ten games overall; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites. Seven of their last nine games went over.

        Cleveland won its last ten games with Philly, covered last three; 76ers are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Ohio. Five of last seven series games stayed under. Philly lost its last two games after a 7-game win streak; they’re 1-5 in last six games as road underdogs. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Cavaliers won six of their last eight games; they’re 5-10 in last 15 games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

        Nets won five of last eight games with Sacramento; they covered their last three visits here. Five of last seven series games went over total. Brooklyn lost nine of its last ten games; they’re a road favorite for first time this year. Four of Nets’ last five games stayed under. Sacramento lost its last five games; they’re 1-7 in last eight games as home underdogs. Over is 6-2-1 in their last eight games.

        Home side won last six Minnesota-Portland games; Wolves are 0-3 vs spread in last three visits to Oregon. Four of last five series games went over the total. Minnesota won three of its last four games; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as road underdogs. Eight of their last nine games went over the total. Trailblazers won six of its last seven games; they’re 6-4 in last ten games as home favorites. Four of their last six games went over.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • NBA
          Armadillo's Write-Up

          Thursday, March 1


          Home side won last five Laker-Miami games; Lakers are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Four of last six series games stayed under the total. LA won its last three games and seven of last ten; they’re 9-6 in last 15 games as road underdogs. Over is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Miami won its last three home games but is 3-7 in last ten games overall; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites. Seven of their last nine games went over.

          Cleveland won its last ten games with Philly, covered last three; 76ers are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Ohio. Five of last seven series games stayed under. Philly lost its last two games after a 7-game win streak; they’re 1-5 in last six games as road underdogs. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Cavaliers won six of their last eight games; they’re 5-10 in last 15 games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

          Nets won five of last eight games with Sacramento; they covered their last three visits here. Five of last seven series games went over total. Brooklyn lost nine of its last ten games; they’re a road favorite for first time this year. Four of Nets’ last five games stayed under. Sacramento lost its last five games; they’re 1-7 in last eight games as home underdogs. Over is 6-2-1 in their last eight games.

          Home side won last six Minnesota-Portland games; Wolves are 0-3 vs spread in last three visits to Oregon. Four of last five series games went over the total. Minnesota won three of its last four games; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as road underdogs. Eight of their last nine games went over the total. Trailblazers won six of its last seven games; they’re 6-4 in last ten games as home favorites. Four of their last six games went over.




          NBA

          Thursday, March 1


          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Trend Report
          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          LA LAKERS @ MIAMI
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games on the road
          Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
          Miami is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games

          PHILADELPHIA @ CLEVELAND
          Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Philadelphia's last 20 games when playing Cleveland
          Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
          Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

          BROOKLYN @ SACRAMENTO
          Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games
          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 8 games
          Sacramento is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

          MINNESOTA @ PORTLAND
          The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Portland
          Portland is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
          Portland is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Minnesota


          --------------------------------------------------------------------------

          NBA
          Dunkel

          Thursday, March 1



          LA Lakers @ Miami

          Game 501-502
          March 1, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          LA Lakers
          116.342
          Miami
          122.769
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Miami
          by 6 1/2
          211
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Miami
          by 4
          215 1/2
          Dunkel Pick:
          Miami
          (-4); Under

          Philadelphia @ Cleveland


          Game 503-504
          March 1, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Philadelphia
          118.231
          Cleveland
          123.768
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Cleveland
          by 5 1/2
          218
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Cleveland
          by 3 1/2
          223
          Dunkel Pick:
          Cleveland
          (-3 1/2); Under

          Brooklyn @ Sacramento


          Game 505-506
          March 1, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Brooklyn
          112.312
          Sacramento
          113.425
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Sacramento
          by 1
          219
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Brooklyn
          by 1
          214
          Dunkel Pick:
          Sacramento
          (+1); Over

          Minnesota @ Portland


          Game 507-508
          March 1, 2018 @ 10:30 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Minnesota
          121.345
          Portland
          122.421
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Portland
          by 1
          223
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Portland
          by 4 1/2
          217 1/2
          Dunkel Pick:
          Minnesota
          (+4 1/2); Over





          NBA
          Long Sheet

          Thursday, March 1


          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          LA LAKERS (26 - 34) at MIAMI (32 - 29) - 3/1/2018, 7:30 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          LA LAKERS are 139-178 ATS (-56.8 Units) in March games since 1996.
          MIAMI is 80-61 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
          MIAMI is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
          MIAMI is 38-25 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
          MIAMI is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
          LA LAKERS are 136-96 ATS (+30.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
          LA LAKERS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
          MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
          MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
          2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          PHILADELPHIA (32 - 27) at CLEVELAND (36 - 24) - 3/1/2018, 8:00 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          PHILADELPHIA is 82-58 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
          PHILADELPHIA is 62-42 ATS (+15.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
          PHILADELPHIA is 56-38 ATS (+14.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
          PHILADELPHIA is 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
          PHILADELPHIA is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
          PHILADELPHIA is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
          CLEVELAND is 19-40 ATS (-25.0 Units) in all games this season.
          CLEVELAND is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
          CLEVELAND is 10-35 ATS (-28.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
          CLEVELAND is 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) in home games this season.
          CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
          CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          PHILADELPHIA is 5-4 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
          CLEVELAND is 9-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
          5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          BROOKLYN (20 - 42) at SACRAMENTO (18 - 43) - 3/1/2018, 10:00 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          BROOKLYN is 35-26 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
          BROOKLYN is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          BROOKLYN is 3-2 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
          SACRAMENTO is 3-2 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
          3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          MINNESOTA (38 - 26) at PORTLAND (35 - 26) - 3/1/2018, 10:30 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          MINNESOTA is 364-426 ATS (-104.6 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
          MINNESOTA is 54-84 ATS (-38.4 Units) after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
          PORTLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
          MINNESOTA is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          PORTLAND is 8-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
          PORTLAND is 7-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
          6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • THURSDAY, MARCH 1
            GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


            LAL at MIA 07:30 PM
            LAL +5.0
            O 217.5


            PHI at CLE 08:00 PM
            CLE -2.5
            U 223.0

            BK at SAC 10:00 PM
            SAC +2.5
            O 213.0

            MIN at POR 10:30 PM
            POR -5.0
            O 217.5
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • March NBA Record:

              DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

              03/01/2018 6-2-0 83.00% +1900


              *******************************


              Friday’s 6-pack

              More over/under betting propositions for home runs this season:

              30.5— Kyle Schwarber

              28.5— Charlie Blackmon

              25.5— Francisco Lindor

              25.5— Kyle Seager

              24.5— Corey Seager

              22.5— Greg Bird

              Quote of the Day
              “I think it would be in their best interests to know how our industry financially operates before they start working with legislators across the country on sports gaming bills. I’m not aware of any league inquiries at this time. I would like to see that change in the near future on both levels. I hope we can discuss and meet with the leagues and legislators who are considering or processing sports betting bills. I believe it would be a tremendous benefit for all of them to understand the sports gaming industry and how it operates.”
              Jay Kornegay, VP of Westgate Race and Sports Book

              Friday’s quiz
              NBA’s New Orleans Pelicans have traded their first round draft pick four of the last five years; the one player they did draft. they later traded to Sacramento— who is he?

              Thursday’s quiz
              Benjamin Franklin’s picture is on the $100 bill.

              Wednesday’s quiz
              Mike Krzyzewski played his college basketball at West Point.

              ********************************

              Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

              13) We’ve entered the age of “guilty until proven innocent.”

              I’m talking now about Sean Miller and the situation at Arizona, where ESPN claimed that Miller was caught on an FBI wiretap talking about an illegal payoff for star player DeAndre Ayton.

              Problem is, there is no recording of this conversation, no transcript of it, and there isn’t 100% agreement on when this conversation supposedly took place, or whether the player being talked about on the tape in question was even Ayton.

              So Miller remains the coach at Arizona, but if he is indeed innocent, where does he go to get his reputation back, since there will always be people that believe he broke the rules?

              12) Arizona xx, Stanford xx— Allonzo Trier was cleared to play by the NCAA, so all-around, it was a solid day to be a Wildcat in Tucson.

              11) Bartolo Colon pitched for the Rangers Thursday; Luis Urias was the Padres’ 2B in the same game. Colon made his major league debut April 3, 1997, two months before Urias was born.

              10) Other than who the Rams take, the one thing I’ll be looking for when the NFL Draft rolls around is where Louisville QB Lamar Jackson winds up. My personal opinion is that there is a place for him in the NFL, but I’m just a guy typing on his laptop.

              One NFL personnel guy has to risk his career on Jackson being an NFL QB.

              9) When the Cleveland Browns interviewed Alabama RB Bo Scarbrough at the NFL Combine, one of the questions they asked him was if he thought God is an Auburn fan.

              What does that have to do with anything?

              8) Minnesota Vikings went 13-3 this past season, their best record in 19 years, but it is likely that none of their three QB’s from last year will be on their 2018 roster.

              Case Keenum had a great season, but it looks like Minnesota will let him test the free agent market; Sam Bradford’s knee is so bad that they’d be stupid to sign him- Mike Zimmer called it “degenerative”, and Teddy Bridgewater had a non-contact injury in 2016 that he still may not be fully recovered from. All three of those quarterbacks are free agents, and all three will likely be elsewhere in a few months.

              7) Bruins led Pittsburgh after the first period Thursday night; it was most goals scored in first period of an NHL game since Arizona led Nashville 6-3 after first period on March 28, 2013.

              6) RB’s Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb did 29 bench press reps at the NFL Combine.

              Barkley and Chubb had more reps than all but five of the 36 offensive linemen to bench press at the Combine this year.

              5) No quarterback who played at USC has ever started a Super Bowl.

              QB’s from Fresno State, Arizona, Morehead State, Northern Iowa, Navy, Southern Miss and Grambling have all won Super Bowls.

              4) This from ***********:
              “Nevada has seen explosive popularity in sports betting over the past decade. The annual handle rose from $2.8 billion in 2010 to $4.9 billion in 2017……”

              3) If you care about such things, Lee Westwood has the most career earnings at The Masters without ever having won the tournament. Justin Rose is 2nd, Ernie Els is 3rd on that list.

              2) University of Nevada has only seven healthy scholarship basketball players right now; they’ve added three walk-ons in the last month, including two WR’s from the football team. Adding the walk-ons allows them to practice 5-on-5 at least.

              1— Our thoughts/prayers go out to Hall of Fame QB Jim Kelly, who once again is battling cancer. He’s a tough guy; we wish him well in this latest battle.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • Friday's Essentials
                March 2, 2018


                Game of the Night - Minnesota at Utah, ESPN, 10:35 ET

                Only the Rockets had a better February than Utah, which matched Toronto at 9-2 and fared better than even Golden State (8-2). Despite their success, that run was only good enough to get the Jazz to the brink of playoff contention since the absence of Rudy Gobert proved to be so detrimental.

                In the month he missed between mid-December and Jan. 18, they went 4-11. His return helped right the ship, which coupled with rookie Donovan Mitchell’s emergence, has Utah back over .500, currently two games behind the Nuggets, who hold the No. 8 seed.

                The Timberwolves are hoping to fare better than Utah did after losing its most important player, Jimmy Butler, to a small tear in his meniscus that required surgery. His expected recovery time will likely keep him out until the final week of the regular season, so it’s on the players left to try and protect the Northwest Division lead he left them with. After winning their first two games without him, the Wolves looked like they badly missed Butler on Thursday night.

                The Trail Blazers pulled to within one-half game of the Wolves after last night’s 108-99 win, taking advantage of a big fourth quarter to rally. Karl-Anthony Towns came through with 34 points and 17 rebounds, but the rest of his teammates barely shot 40 percent from the field and were a combined 3-for-17 from 3-point range. Butler allowed Towns to be one of the best No. 2 options in the game.

                Now that the pecking order has been altered, it’s on Andrew Wiggins and Jamal Crawford to pick up the slack. They combined to shoot 12-for-33 in Portland, missing nine of 11 3-pointers. A Minnesota loss in Utah would drop them into a first-place tie with the Blazers, who they finished off a split of a season series against last night.

                Nemanja Bjelica has taken Butler’s spot in the lineup and performed well rebounding and spacing the floor as a 3-point threat, averaging 9.3 points and 9.0 rebounds. This will be their second back-to-back since the All-Star break, splitting at Houston and home against Chicago last week. They’re 5-6 on the second night when playing consecutive games.

                The Jazz were crushed by the Blazers last Friday night and will be wrapping up a six-game homestand here, looking to finish 4-2. Utah’s 11-game winning streak ended in that loss to Portland, while Houston came through earlier in the week and utilized a small-ball approach to win by 11 points. A win over the Mavs in between those games on Saturday night was rather sloppy, so the Jazz haven’t exactly lit it up coming out of the All-Star break.

                Donovan Mitchell scored 40 points to open February and won a slam dunk contest along the way, but he’s shot 39 percent over his last 10 games shot 1-for-9 from 3-point range against the Rockets. Mitchell is indefensible if he’s got his jump shot working, and has Ricky Rubio back in the fold to play table-setter, so we’ll see if he can snap out of his slump against a Timberwolves defense that has held him to just 13 points per game and 42 percent shooting.

                Rubio is still working his way back from a hip injury with just three games under his belt, but had averaged 27.7 points over the three games prior to getting hurt. If Rubio can get back to that level, Utah has plenty of ammunition to chase down Butler-less Minnesota in the Northwest Division.

                Although the Jazz are currently bringing up the rear, they’re only five games back of first place entering Friday night. They could make a statement by taking care of business at home as a 6.5-point favorite.

                These teams will play again on April 1 and haven’t faced off since Nov. 13, so it’s not worth putting much stock into the Timberwolves winning the first two games since Mitchell was nowhere near as polished as he is now. Minnesota won the first meeting way back on Oct. 20, in the second game of the season, 100-97.

                The Jazz have failed to cover in any of their last five outings. The Wolves have seen the ‘over’ prevail in eight of their last nine contests. Taj Gibson, who left Thursday's loss with a hip issue, is listed as questionable.

                Injury report

                There aren't a lot of great matchups on Friday's 10-game NBA card. You just read about the top Western Conference matchup. The East has the night's three best alternatives. Toronto visiting Washington and Milwaukee hosting Indiana look interesting, while Charlotte is hoping to continue its playoff push in Philadelphia against a team in a letdown spot coming off last night's win in Cleveland.

                Joel Embiid is likely to play in his fourth back-to-back in a 30-dayspan against the Hornets but has shown no signs of wearing down. Charlotte may not have Cody Zeller due to a knee injury that sidelined him last time out. Michaek Kidd-Gilchrist also missed Wednesday's 134-106 loss to Boston and is listed as questionable due to a hamstring issue.

                The Raptors lost wing OG Anunoby to a significant ankle sprain in a mid-week win in Orlando, so don't expect the rookie to play in D.C. against the Wizards. Pascal Siakam will likely see increased minutes as a result. Washington is likely to have Otto Porter available despite elbow discomfort.

                Giannis Antetokounmpo is probably the biggest name whose availability for tonight's action needs to be tracked. He left Wednesday's 23-point loss to the Pistons with an eye injury that left him with blurry vision post-game. The expectation is that he'll be out there, but make sure before coming in on Bucks/Pacers. Milwaukee wing Tony Snell is also dealing with a thigh injury.

                OKC has seen Russell Westbrook toil through a 2-for-24 shooting slump from beyond the arc, but have remained healthy and may have the newly-signed Corey Brewer available to debut after being signed following his buyout with the Lakers. Phoenix forward T.J. Warren (tailbone) and center Tyson Chandler (neck) missed Wednesday's win in Memphis and are questionable here.

                The Clippers host the Knicks and aren't likely to get Danilo Gallinari back in the mix due to his hand injury. Guard Avery Bradley remains sidelined, which means the L.A. defense could again struggle.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • NBA
                  Armadillo's Write-Up

                  Friday, March 2


                  Orlando won four of last five games with Detroit; under is 4-2 in last six series games. Pistons are 0-3 vs spread in last three visits here. Detroit lost six of its last eight games; they’re 3-4 as road favorites. Under is 3-0-3 in their last six games. Magic lost their last seven games; they’re 7-3 in last ten games as home underdogs. Six of their last nine games stayed under the total.

                  Hornets won six of last eight games with Philly; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five games in this building. Four of last five series games stayed under. Charlotte won five of its last six games; they’re 9-12-2 as road underdogs. Over is 3-0-1 in their last four games. 76ers won eight of their last ten games; they covered 10 of last 11 games as home favorites. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

                  Golden State won nine of last ten games with the Hawks; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Atlanta. Four of last six series games went over. Warriors won seven of last eight games; they are 2-6 vs spread in last eight road games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Hawks lost six of their last eight games; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home underdogs. Four of their last five games stayed under.

                  Dallas won four of last five games with Chicago; they covered their last four visits to the Windy City, three of which stayed under the total. Mavericks lost seven of their last nine games; they’re 2-2 as road favorites. Six of their last eight games went over total. Bulls lost their last five games; they’re 11-9 as home underdogs. Four of their last five games went over the total.

                  Denver won last two games with Memphis, after losing seven of previous eight; Nuggets covered three of last four visits to Memphis. Last three series games stayed under total. Denver won seven of its last ten games; they’re 4-5 as road favorites. Nine of Nuggets’ last ten games went over the total. Grizzlies lost their last ten games; they’re 7-10 as home underdogs. Four of their last six games went over.

                  Raptors won seven of last ten games with Washington; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five games in this building. Seven of last ten series games stayed under. Toronto won nine of its last 10 games; they’re 11-8 as road favorites. Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Wizards won five of their last seven games; they’re 2-1 as home underdogs. Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

                  Home side won five of last six Pacer-Buck games; Indiana is 2-3 vs spread in last five visits in this arena. Three of last four series games stayed under. Pacers won four of their last six games; they’re 3-6 in last nine games as road underdogs. three of last four series games stayed under the total. Milwaukee lost four of its last five games; they’re 0-5 in last five games as home favorites. Under is 6-4 in their last ten games.

                  Home side won seven of last eight Thunder-Suns games; OKC is 2-4 vs spread in last six trips to the desert. Three of last four series games stayed under. Oklahoma City won four of its last five games; they’re 7-15 as road favorites. Five of their last seven games went over total. Phoenix lost nine of its last ten games; they’re 2-8 in last ten games as home underdogs. Four of their last six games stayed under.

                  Timberwolves won three of last four games with Utah; they covered their last three visits to Salt Lake City. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Minnesota split their last ten games; they’re 2-8 in last ten games as road underdogs. Eight of their last ten games went over. Utah won eight of its last ten games; they’re 2-11 in last 13 games as home favorites. Last four Jazz games went under the total.

                  Clippers won nine of last ten games with the Knicks, who are 3-2 vs spread in last five series games played here. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. New York lost nine of its last 10 games; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as road underdogs. Last four Knick games went over the total. Clippers won seven of their last ten games; they’re 1-4 in last five games as home favorites. Four of their last five games went over total.
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • NBA

                    Friday, March 2


                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Trend Report
                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                    DETROIT @ ORLANDO
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
                    Detroit is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Orlando
                    Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
                    Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

                    CHARLOTTE @ PHILADELPHIA
                    Charlotte is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
                    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
                    Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

                    GOLDEN STATE @ ATLANTA
                    Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
                    Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
                    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 23 games when playing at home against Golden State
                    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Golden State

                    DALLAS @ CHICAGO
                    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
                    Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
                    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
                    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas

                    DENVER @ MEMPHIS
                    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
                    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
                    Memphis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
                    Memphis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Denver

                    TORONTO @ WASHINGTON
                    Toronto is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
                    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 11 games on the road
                    Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

                    INDIANA @ MILWAUKEE
                    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 11 games on the road
                    Indiana is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
                    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 16 games
                    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games at home

                    OKLAHOMA CITY @ PHOENIX
                    Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
                    Oklahoma City is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Phoenix
                    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games at home
                    Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City

                    MINNESOTA @ UTAH
                    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games
                    Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Utah
                    Utah is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
                    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games at home

                    NEW YORK @ LA CLIPPERS
                    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games
                    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
                    LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York
                    LA Clippers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing New York
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • NBA
                      Long Sheet

                      Friday, March 2


                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      DETROIT (29 - 32) at ORLANDO (18 - 43) - 3/2/2018, 7:00 PM
                      Top Trends for this game.
                      DETROIT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
                      DETROIT is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
                      DETROIT is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
                      DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.
                      DETROIT is 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.
                      DETROIT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
                      ORLANDO is 61-80 ATS (-27.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                      ORLANDO is 25-44 ATS (-23.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
                      ORLANDO is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      ORLANDO is 5-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
                      DETROIT is 5-4 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
                      5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      CHARLOTTE (28 - 34) at PHILADELPHIA (33 - 27) - 3/2/2018, 7:00 PM
                      Top Trends for this game.
                      CHARLOTTE is 60-77 ATS (-24.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                      CHARLOTTE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
                      CHARLOTTE is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
                      PHILADELPHIA is 83-58 ATS (+19.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                      PHILADELPHIA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in home games this season.
                      PHILADELPHIA is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
                      PHILADELPHIA is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
                      PHILADELPHIA is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      CHARLOTTE is 4-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
                      CHARLOTTE is 5-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
                      4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      GOLDEN STATE (48 - 14) at ATLANTA (19 - 43) - 3/2/2018, 7:30 PM
                      Top Trends for this game.
                      ATLANTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
                      ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games in March games over the last 2 seasons.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
                      GOLDEN STATE is 4-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
                      2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      DALLAS (19 - 43) at CHICAGO (20 - 41) - 3/2/2018, 8:00 PM
                      Top Trends for this game.
                      DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) on Friday nights this season.
                      DALLAS is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
                      DALLAS is 499-418 ATS (+39.2 Units) in road games since 1996.
                      DALLAS is 204-163 ATS (+24.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
                      CHICAGO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      DALLAS is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
                      DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
                      2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      DENVER (33 - 28) at MEMPHIS (18 - 42) - 3/2/2018, 8:00 PM
                      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      DENVER is 5-4 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
                      MEMPHIS is 6-3 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
                      5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      TORONTO (43 - 17) at WASHINGTON (36 - 26) - 3/2/2018, 8:00 PM
                      Top Trends for this game.
                      TORONTO is 190-240 ATS (-74.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
                      WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
                      TORONTO is 82-68 ATS (+7.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                      TORONTO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
                      TORONTO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
                      WASHINGTON is 402-470 ATS (-115.0 Units) in home games since 1996.
                      WASHINGTON is 151-198 ATS (-66.8 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      WASHINGTON is 5-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
                      TORONTO is 7-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
                      7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      INDIANA (34 - 27) at MILWAUKEE (33 - 28) - 3/2/2018, 8:00 PM
                      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      MILWAUKEE is 5-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
                      MILWAUKEE is 5-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
                      5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      OKLAHOMA CITY (36 - 27) at PHOENIX (19 - 44) - 3/2/2018, 9:00 PM
                      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      PHOENIX is 5-3 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
                      OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-3 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
                      5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      MINNESOTA (38 - 27) at UTAH (31 - 30) - 3/2/2018, 10:30 PM
                      Top Trends for this game.
                      MINNESOTA is 364-427 ATS (-105.7 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
                      UTAH is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
                      MINNESOTA is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      UTAH is 5-5 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
                      UTAH is 6-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
                      6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      NEW YORK (24 - 38) at LA CLIPPERS (32 - 28) - 3/2/2018, 10:30 PM
                      Top Trends for this game.
                      NEW YORK is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
                      LA CLIPPERS are 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
                      LA CLIPPERS are 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
                      LA CLIPPERS are 164-206 ATS (-62.6 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
                      LA CLIPPERS are 224-274 ATS (-77.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      NEW YORK is 3-2 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
                      LA CLIPPERS is 4-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
                      3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • NBA
                        Dunkel

                        Friday, March 2


                        I'll post 809/810, 813/814 and 815/816 once the lines are set.


                        Detroit @ Orlando

                        Game 801-802
                        March 2, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

                        Dunkel Rating:
                        Detroit
                        117.186
                        Orlando
                        112.091
                        Dunkel Team:
                        Dunkel Line:
                        Dunkel Total:
                        Detroit
                        by 5
                        208
                        Vegas Team:
                        Vegas Line:
                        Vegas Total:
                        Detroit
                        by 2 1/2
                        213 1/2
                        Dunkel Pick:
                        Detroit
                        (-2 1/2); Under

                        Charlotte @ Philadelphia


                        Game 803-804
                        March 2, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

                        Dunkel Rating:
                        Charlotte
                        116.867
                        Philadelphia
                        122.908
                        Dunkel Team:
                        Dunkel Line:
                        Dunkel Total:
                        Philadelphia
                        by 6
                        209
                        Vegas Team:
                        Vegas Line:
                        Vegas Total:
                        Philadelphia
                        by 3 1/2
                        215
                        Dunkel Pick:
                        Philadelphia
                        (-3 1/2); Under

                        Golden State @ Atlanta


                        Game 805-806
                        March 2, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

                        Dunkel Rating:
                        Golden State
                        125.298
                        Atlanta
                        115.108
                        Dunkel Team:
                        Dunkel Line:
                        Dunkel Total:
                        Golden State
                        by 10
                        232
                        Vegas Team:
                        Vegas Line:
                        Vegas Total:
                        Golden State
                        by 13
                        226
                        Dunkel Pick:
                        Atlanta
                        (+13); Over

                        Dallas @ Chicago


                        Game 807-808
                        March 2, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

                        Dunkel Rating:
                        Dallas
                        113.287
                        Chicago
                        114.117
                        Dunkel Team:
                        Dunkel Line:
                        Dunkel Total:
                        Chicago
                        by 1
                        217
                        Vegas Team:
                        Vegas Line:
                        Vegas Total:
                        Dallas
                        by 1 1/2
                        212 1/2
                        Dunkel Pick:
                        Chicago
                        (+1 1/2); Over

                        Toronto @ Washington


                        Game 811-812
                        March 2, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

                        Dunkel Rating:
                        Toronto
                        124.154
                        Washington
                        118.203
                        Dunkel Team:
                        Dunkel Line:
                        Dunkel Total:
                        Toronto
                        by 6
                        212
                        Vegas Team:
                        Vegas Line:
                        Vegas Total:
                        Toronto
                        by 2 1/2
                        216 1/2
                        Dunkel Pick:
                        Toronto
                        (-2 1/2); Under

                        Minnesota @ Utah


                        Game 817-818
                        March 2, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

                        Dunkel Rating:
                        Minnesota
                        115.672
                        Utah
                        124.598
                        Dunkel Team:
                        Dunkel Line:
                        Dunkel Total:
                        Utah
                        by 9
                        205
                        Vegas Team:
                        Vegas Line:
                        Vegas Total:
                        Utah
                        by 5 1/2
                        210
                        Dunkel Pick:
                        Utah
                        (-5 1/2); Under

                        New York @ LA Clippers


                        Game 819-820
                        March 2, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

                        Dunkel Rating:
                        New York
                        112.309
                        LA Clippers
                        124.896
                        Dunkel Team:
                        Dunkel Line:
                        Dunkel Total:
                        LA Clippers
                        by 12 1/2
                        221
                        Vegas Team:
                        Vegas Line:
                        Vegas Total:
                        LA Clippers
                        by 9
                        228
                        Dunkel Pick:
                        LA Clippers
                        (-9); Under
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • March NBA Record:

                          DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

                          03/01/2018 6-2-0 83.00% +1900
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • Hoop Trends - Friday
                            March 2, 2018


                            ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

                            -- The Raptors are 14-0 ATS (11.00 ppg) on the road off a win in which they scored a least 18 fast break points.

                            OU TREND OF THE DAY:

                            -- The Bulls are 12-0 OU (13.04 ppg) as a dog after they scored fewer than 10 fast break points.

                            PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

                            -- The Timberwolves are 10-0 OU (13.95 ppg) after Taj Gibson took fewer than 10 shots last game.

                            CHOICE TREND:

                            -- The 76ers are 0-11 ATS (-8.23 ppg) with no rest off a road game in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers.

                            ACTIVE TRENDS:

                            -- The Thunder are 0-14 ATS (-10.89 ppg) as a favorite with rest after playing as a road favorite.

                            -- The Bucks are 0-11-2 OU (-9.81 ppg) after being outscored in the paint by double digits last game.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • Friday's Best Bet
                              March 2, 2018


                              Friday NBA Best Bet
                              Golden State vs Atlanta


                              With 10 games on the NBA card tonight, the Golden State/Atlanta game isn't exactly one that sticks out as a must-watch game to many. Everyone has already pencilled in a Golden State victory here as they really are no match for the rebuilding Hawks and oddsmakers would agree, installing the Warriors as -12.5 point road favorites.

                              But just because a game may not be that entertaining, doesn't mean we can't cash a betting ticket or two, so let's get right to where my money is going on this contest.

                              Bookmaker.eu Odds: Golden State (-12.5); Total set at 227

                              The Warriors are wrapping up this three-game east coast trip tonight as they've won the first two rather easily in New York and Washington. Tonight's game isn't expected to be any harder, but the 1-1 ATS record Golden State has in those two previous road games does give Atlanta backers a bit of hope their Hawks can keep it within the number. The problem is, Vegasinsider.com shows less then 10% of ATS bets so far have come the Hawks way, meaning that the number of Hawks bettors out there are few and far between.

                              The end of a road trip of any length can be a decent spot to fade almost any team in the NBA, but one like Golden State may not always fall into that category. However, they know tonight's game should be a cakewalk, they've got three full days off before they play again, and even then it's a home game against the Brooklyn Nets; another pencilled in win already. Focus could be a bit of a concern for Golden State tonight and 13 points is a lot to win by on the road, even if it is against one of the worst teams in the league. At the same time, it's really tough to trust this Atlanta team to hang around, making the +12.5 points the play I'd be inclined to take on the side, but am passing on it all together.

                              Instead, I'm looking at tonight's total and the 90%-plus of 'over' action and can't help but think the majority of bettors are going to be wrong tonight. A huge spread like we've got all but eliminates the possibility of OT (always a plus for 'under' tickets), and who's to say this game doesn't turn into one of those 30+ point blowouts for the Warriors that have them joking around in the 4th quarter as both teams bleed away the clock in garbage time. 228 points is a lot to ask, and no matter how good you believe the Warriors are, you're going to need plenty of help from Atlanta to reach that number as well.

                              Atlanta does produce more offensively at home, but with a 1-4 O/U run in their last five overall, and 3-7 O/U in their last 10, the same lack of trust you've got to have with Atlanta ATS has to bleed over into Atlanta's offensive prospects tonight. Sure, the potential for a lack of focus and just letting their superior talent win the game can suggest that Golden State will look to play a track meet/schoolyard style of game early to take control of the game, but a good pace for an 'over' may not mean a whole lot by the end.

                              Benches will be cleared to the final guy if it's a blowout, and if it isn't, chances are both teams have played some quality defense at times and force the other into defending late. That's one thing if the total is 220 or less for a Warriors game, but approaching 230 is still a lot to ask.

                              Golden State is 3-10 O/U in their last 13 games against Eastern Conference teams, while the Hawks are on a 3-13 O/U run after covering a spread their last time out. Atlanta is also on a 1-6 O/U run against teams from the West, and with Atlanta being 5-17 O/U when facing a team that scored 100+ last time out, and 5-16-1 O/U when coming off a rare SU win, all signs point to the 'under' cashing in this game tonight.

                              I expect this game to come in right around the 220 mark when all is said and done, so at 227 there is plenty of room for error in going against the masses.

                              Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

                              Best Bet: Under 227
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                              Comment


                              • Dinero Tracker - March 2
                                March 2, 2018


                                Read the Dinero Tracker's mission statement here
                                Last night's ATS Records
                                NBA: 2-2 | NCAA BB: 6-18


                                Only Louisville's coaches, players and fans had a rougher evening than I did since its collapse can't be topped. I came close, though. An incredibly rough night included falling just short on my college lock, which wrapped up a night where little went right. There were a few games were bad breaks and poor free-throw shooting played a role, but mostly, it was just one of those "mama said" nights. Neither guarantee came in and the freebie failed, which has probably only happened one other time in a month's span. The key to bouncing back from a losing night is to bury the past and keep it from lingering. In that's sense, there has to be a next play/next day mentality. Time to put a brutal opening night in a month I expect to dominate in the rear-view. Here is Thursday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

                                FRIDAY'S FREE SELECTION

                                The pick: Clippers/Knicks OVER 226.5

                                The Clippers will once again be without Danilo Gallinari and Avery Bradley, but have enough depth to handle the Knicks. What they do lack is any hope of playing perimeter defense, since their personnel on that end of the floor isn't adept at picking up Bradley's slack. That makes the Knicks dangerous since they're streaky and certainly capable of filling it up at Stpales, having scored an average of 114 points over the last four. New York has given up an average of 119.3 in losing three of those games. Ride the over.

                                THURSDAY'S FREE SELECTION

                                The pick: Oregon -7.5

                                Ernie Kent has gotten his Cougars to play their best basketall at home, but there is no question that his team is the less talented than most in the Pac-12 and are up against it with a Ducks team intent on making one final NCAA tournament push arriving in Pullman. After wins over Arizona and ASU wrapped up the slate in Eugene, Dana Altman's team needs to take care of business against both Washington schools and fare well in the conference tournament in order to secure a spot. Look for them to handle the first part of their objective in lopsided fashion. Lay the points and ride Oregon.

                                Result: The Ducks couldn't get a handle on Robert Franks and Malachi Flynn, which doesn't say much for Dana Altman's adjustments against his predecessor. The cover, barring OT, had no shot to come in once we entered the stretch run, and Oregon failed to avoid the upset altogether when Peyton Pritchard missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer.

                                THURSDAY'S LOCK

                                The pick: Heat -3.5

                                The Lakers have been on the road over the past few days after coming out of the All-Star break with a rout of Dallas, but this will be their toughest test since losing in Minnesota two weeks ago. L.A. will also be playing in its 12th different arena in a 14-game span since late January and has spent the last few days in South Florida, which has its ways of tempting young players. Coming off an incredible Dwyane Wade-led win over Philly, look for the Heat to continue its surge. Lay the 3.5 points and ride Miami, guaranteed.

                                Result: Any hopes that the Lakers would have a little too much fun with a few days to play in South Florida were instantly squashed in a 20-7 start, but the Heat had wrestled the lead back by the end of the quarter. The Lakers followed up displaying an early pulse by playing the role of rude guest with a 40-point second quarter, paving the way for a 131-113 rout. Isaiah Thomas scored 29 points off the bench in his best outing since returning from hip surgery.

                                LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK

                                The pick: Northern Colorado/Portland State OVER 165

                                It seems extremely likely that these teams will wind up on different sides of the Big Sky Tournament bracket, but the Bears clearly have more to play for as they try to catch Eastern Washington for the No. 4 seed that would get them a bye into the quarterfinals, avoiding a first-round date with league doormat Northern Arizona. This will be their first look at Portland State, which presses relentlessly for 40 minutes and has won four of their last five despite the absence of top scorer Deontae North, who is rumored to have left the program. Look for a high-scoring game in this one, since Northern Colorado has managed to pour in 79 points or more in 17 of 21 games since December began. Ride the over, guaranteed.

                                Result: This game started too slowly and featured brutal free-throw shooting. Ultimately, that's why we ended up a possession or two short in Northern Colorado's 85-78 win. There wasn't a point scored until 2:05 in, which combined with an 8-4 segment to open the game's final 10 minutes, proved to be a killer. The teams missed 16 (!) of 36 free throws. Disappointing.

                                BAD BEAT BULLETIN

                                The pick: Monmouth ML -150

                                These New Jersey-based rivals have never met in a MAAC Tournament and split this season's meetings, each winning at home. This rubber match in Albany is for the right to face this season's state champ, top-seeded Rider, tomorrow. The team most likely to make a surprise run are King Rice's Hawks, who have Micah Seaborn healthy again and have been knocked into this position by some tough breaks that likely have them looking at this MAAC Tournament as an opportunity to make up for everything that's gone wrong. Ride Monmouth on the money line to avoid laying the three points and flirting with a push or a loss if it's tight.

                                Result: This is where the day swung, in my opinion. After a slow start, the Hawks were up big most of the game and were going to set the tone for the rest of the night. They accomplished that, but it was by completely collapsing. Monmouth left the door open with brutal free-throw shooting and blew a 47-33 edge with seven minutes left when Nick Griffin nailed his fourth straight 3-pointer down the stretch to lift the Peacocks to a wild 60-58 victory thanks to his last one in the closing seconds.


                                TOTAL RECALL

                                The pick: Cavs/76ers UNDER 223.5

                                The Cavs have better defensive personnel than they've had when their run of poor defensive outings became an epidemic, so even though there are still issues, the perception that they simply can't stop anybody is going to be preyed on by line-setters. With Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons able to score efficiently, I think we've seen this number inflated, so ride the under in a game where both teams will be taking precautions in ensuring they don't get embarrassed by locking in defensively.

                                Result: This looked terrible out of the gate since the 76ers held a 32-29 after the first 12 minutes, but the action slowed down significantly the rest of the way. Aided by an 18-15 third-quarter output, the under was never in doubt down the stretch. Philly pulled the 108-97 upset.

                                UPSET CITY

                                The pick: UC-Santa Barbara -7

                                Forward Jalen Canty has finally served his penance and had his suspension lifted, which means one of the top two-way big men in the Big West will be back to make a difference. His presence makes life so much easier for Max Heidegger and Leland King, not to mention giving the Gauchos a strong option to help contain Gabe Levin. Lay the points and ride UC-Santa Barbara.

                                Result: The Gauchos didn't play well enough to come anywhere near covering in Canty's return, but a 13-4 run did give them a 69-68 lead with seconds remaining. Like everything else on a wild first day in March, Deishaun Booker pulled off the improbable, zooming down the court for a game-winning layup as Long Beach State won by a single point at the buzzer, cashing as 3-to-1 underdogs.

                                CARDIAC ATTACK

                                The pick: Louisville +5, Virginia/'Ville UNDER 124.5

                                Indy native Kyle Guy should have plenty of support in the stands, but the Cavs' top wing and leading scorer has been nursing a back issue that could keep him from being his normal self. Considering points will be hard to come by, that could make the difference as the Cardinals look to pull off a home upset at the Yum! Center. Ride Louisville plus the points and the under for the in-game parlay.

                                Result: Louisville covered, but wouldn't have even been in position to notoriously blow this game in the manner in which it did if Ty Jerome hadn't drilled a wild, step-back fadeaway 3-pointer that destroyed our total, pushing the game over. If he misses, the game would've ended at 64-59 if the final few seconds would've been dribbled out. Instead, Jerome drilled a remarkable shot, the Cardinals added two more free throws and then went on to make history by surrendering five points in less than a second due to asinine decision-making.

                                SWING AND A MISS

                                The pick: Lafayette +7.5, Cornell/Lafayette OVER 143

                                Lafayette will look to try and pull the upset of the No. 2-seeded Raiders and should come in confident since they've proven twice that they can play with the Raiders. In Matt Kilnewski and Alex Petrie, the Leopards have to terrific offensive threats that could help pull the outright upset. Back seventh-seeded Lafayette plus the points and ride the over for the in-game parlay in this Patriot League quarterfinal.

                                Result: The Leopards didn't show up. Klinewski led the team with 12, while Petrie managed just 4 points as Colgate dominated 76-54. Complete whiff.

                                PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

                                The pick: Missouri State -1.5

                                The second MVC quarterfinal going off tonight marks Valpo's first appearance in Arch Madness after coming over from the Horizon League. With a terrific wing like Alize Johnson to contend with, this should be a tough baptism for the Crusaders. Ride Missouri State to win and cover.

                                Result: This wound up closer than expected, but we'll take any victory in March. That's the takeaway after Day 1. After leading by as many as 14 points in the second half, the Bears had to sweat out the closing stages, but Johnson's 22 points and 18 rebounds were too much. Told you so. Took a lot of L's. Time to bounce back.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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