The Bum's 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Updated NFL over-under win totals for 2018:

— San Francisco 49ers 8.5, under -$125

— Baltimore Ravens, 8.5, under -$130

— Tennessee Titans 8.5, under -$140

— Carolina Panthers 8, over -$140

— Dallas Cowboys 8, over -$135

— Jacksonville Jaguars 8, -$125

Quote of the Day
“I ain’t doing a damn thing and I don’t start until noon.”
Former NFL coach Bum Phillips, describing his retirement

Thursday’s quiz
In what town did John Elway play his one season of minor league baseball?

Wednesday’s quiz
Bob Costas was once radio announcer for the ABA’s Spirits of St Louis.

Tuesday’s quiz
Giants’ P Jeff Samardzija was a WR in college at Notre Dame.

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Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Sunday afternoon at Westwood Country Club in the St Louis area; 7th hole, 123 yards; two guys in the same foursome both got hole-in-1’s.

The odds of two guys in the same foursome getting an ace on the same hole are said to be 17,000,000-1. Pretty cool, but which guy had honors on the next hole?

12) Interesting article on Yahoo Sports about the Miami Dolphins’ scouts and how they went about their duties leading up to last week’s draft.

Over the course of last football season and leading up to the draft, Miami’s 10-man scouting staff graded 1,504 players, wrote 3,690 reports and visited 256 colleges.

11) ESPN said that Kyle Korver had the ball in his hands for 30 seconds during Cleveland’s OT win in Toronto Tuesday night. He made the most of those 30 seconds, making 7 of 17 shots, 5 of 12 behind the arc. 17 shots in 30 seconds with the ball; sounds like a good job.

10) Colorado Rockies led off Tuesday’s game at Wrigley Field with back/back homers; that was first time since 1937 a visiting team starting a game at Wrigley with back/back jacks.

9) Dodgers were 23-4 last year when Clayton Kershaw started; they’re 2-5 this year.

8) Red Sox 5, Royals 4— Mookie Betts had three homers for Boston, which trailed 3-0 early.

7) According to ESPN, Phoenix Suns will hire Utah Jazz assistant coach Igor Kokoskov as their new head coach; he will become the first European-born head coach in the NBA..

6) Utah State’s football team will be paid $1.91M to come to Tuscaloosa and lose to the Crimson Tide during the 2022 season.

Thats the 3rd-most $$$ a team has ever gotten for a non-conference game; Florida is paying Colorado State $2M (as part of Jim McElwain’s buyout) for a game this fall and Auburn will pay Tulane $1.937M for a 2019 game

5) In case you were wondering, Albert Pujols holds the all-time major league record for first inning home runs— he hit his 142nd 1st inning homer off Dylan Bundy Wednesday night.

4) Baseball players get hurt a lot:
— Jacob deGrom hyperextended his elbow while batting Wednesday night; an MRI was taken; all Mets fans and deGrom fantasy owners are holding their breath.
— Braves’ SS Dansby Swanson left that same game with a sore left wrist.
— Dodgers’ P Hyun-jin Ryu left his start in the 2nd inning with an unknown injury.

3) Jazz 116, Rockets 108— Utah evens series 1-1 with a road win; they made 15-32 on arc, led by Joe Ingles’ 7-9. Winning a road game without Ricky Rubio is even more impressive.

2) A’s 3, Mariners 2– Paxton blanked Oakland for seven innings, striking out 16 hitters in an overpowering performance, but they took him out after 105 pitches and the A’s beat the Seattle bullpen.

1— Random question: What would baseball be like if there was no pitchers’ mound, just a circle in the middle of the infield where the pitchers threw the ball? Would scoring go way up?

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's NBA Playoffs betting preview and odds

Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs continues Thursday with the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics both trying to build on their Game 1 victories as underdogs.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (-6.5, 212.5)

Cavaliers lead series 1-0.

It was more of the same in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals with LeBron James - even on an off night - and his Cleveland Cavaliers once again getting the better of the Toronto Raptors. James and the Cavaliers will attempt to maintain their postseason dominance of the Raptors and take a commanding 2-0 series lead back home when the teams meet Thursday night in Toronto.

James recorded his 21st career playoff triple-double as Cleveland erased a 13-point deficit in the second half and survived multiple chances for the Raptors to win late in regulation and again in the closing seconds of overtime for a 113-112 win Tuesday night. "My teammates were unbelievable tonight," James told reporters afterward. "They stepped up when I wasn't at my best." Toronto, which has dropped nine of 11 playoff meetings with Cleveland over the last three seasons, must quickly move on from a game it probably should've won. "A lot of things, we did to ourselves," coach Dwane Casey told the media. "I think we're a better team. We just didn't make the shots down the stretch. I know it sounds simplistic, but we had our open looks, had our opportunities, that we didn't cash in on, and some other things we could clean up defensively."

TV: 6 p.m. ET, ESPN

SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):



LINE MOVES AND BETTING ACTION: The Raptors opened as six-point favorites for Game 2 and as of Wednesday night they have been bumped up slightly to -6.5. This line move is despite 58 percent of wagers coming in on the underdog Cavs. The total hit betting boards at 212.5 and has not moved.

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - No injuries to report.

Raptors - PG F. VanVleet (Questionable, Shoulder).

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (55-35 SU, 34-55-1 ATS, 42-46-2 O/U): James was 12-of-30 from the field and 1-of-6 from the line in his 26-point, 13-assist, 11-rebound performance. "Shots weren't going in for me," James - who was 3-for-15 in the fourth quarter and overtime - told reporters. "It was probably one of my worst games of the season." Kyle Korver is among those teammates James credited with helping him out, and the sharpshooter tied his 2018 playoff high with 19 points while making 5-of-12 3-pointers.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (63-26 SU, 47-41-1 ATS, 45-43-1 O/U): Toronto has certainly heard all the talk of being owned by Cleveland and it seemed to lose its mental edge when the Cavaliers made things tight down the stretch Tuesday, including a final possession in regulation when the hosts had four misses. "We are better than some of the situations we put ourselves in," Casey added. "I can do a better job. I didn't like some of the possessions we had down the stretch even though we got open looks. We all can be better. Some of the turnovers we had. …" The Raptors had 14 turnovers while forcing just six and they've coughed it up 17 more times than their opponents during the postseason.

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games.
* Raptors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 8-3 in Cavaliers' last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
* Over is 7-1 in Raptors' last 8 Conference Semifinals games.
* Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Toronto.




Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (+4, 206)

Celtics lead series 1-0.

The Boston Celtics delivered the opening salvo and now the visiting Philadelphia 76ers look to even the Eastern Conference semifinal series on Thursday. Boston received another stunning postseason showing from guard Terry Rozier and knocked down 17 3-pointers in Monday's 117-101 victory in the series opener.

The unsung Rozier emerged as a surprise standout in the first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks and he continued his solid play by making 7-of-9 3-pointers and scoring 29 points in the opener. Rozier, who also had eight rebounds and six assists, received quality help from forwards Jayson Tatum (28 points) and Al Horford (26 points on 10-of-12 shooting) as Boston scored 30 or more in each of the final three quarters. Philadelphia star big man Joel Embiid recorded 31 points and 13 rebounds in Game 1 but the squad was an abysmal 5-of-26 from 3-point range. "I thought this was one of our poorer defensive games," 76ers coach Brett Brown told reporters. "I think, to look at this game, defensively, offensively, this isn't who we are. This is a very poor game from us."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):



LINE MOVES AND BETTING ACTION: The 76ers opened as 3.5-point road favorites for Game 2 and as of Wednesday night that number is up to 4 - this despite 54 percent of wagers coming in on the underdog Celtics. The total hit betting boards at 207 and is down slightly to 206.

INJURY REPORT:

76ers - SG T. Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out Indefinitely, Knee).

Celtics - SG J. Brown (Probable, Hamstring), PG M. Smart (Probable, Thumb), PG K. Irving (Out For Season, Knee), PF D. Theis (Out For Season, Knee), SF G. Hayward (Out For Season, Ankle).

ABOUT THE 76ERS (56-32 SU, 51-35-2 ATS, 44-43-1 O/U): Rookie point guard Ben Simmons had 18 points, seven rebounds and six assists in Game 1 but also committed seven turnovers and is well aware the team didn't give its best effort. "Game 1, we were comfortable, we knew what they were going to throw at us, but we obviously just didn't execute, and didn't stick with it," Simmons told reporters on Wednesday. "I think that's where we lost most of the game at. We know exactly what we're going to get into once we hit the floor." Forwards Robert Covington (three points on 0-of-6 shooting) and Ersan Ilyasova (six points on 2-of-9 shooting) were among the 76ers who experienced subpart efforts.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (60-30 SU, 56-32-2 ATS, 49-40-1 O/U): Shooting guard Jaylen Brown (hamstring) is listed as doubtful and coach Brad Stevens didn't sound like someone who wants to push the situation when he met with reporters on Wednesday. "The bottom line is, with this hamstring injury, it's not terrible," Stevens said. "It's not a long-term thing, it shouldn't linger if he comes back at the right time. But you could make it worse if you don't come back at the right time, if you have to guard JJ Redick and Marco Belinelli." Brown suffered the injury during Game 7 of the series with the Bucks and was hoping to play in the opening game before the plan was nixed by team trainers.

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* 76ers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Celtics are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Over is 4-1 in 76ers' last 5 road games.
* Over is 13-3 in Celtics' last 16 home games.
* Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, May 3


Philadelphia @ Boston

Game 509-510
May 3, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
124.218
Boston
117.869
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 6 1/2
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
206 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-4); Under

Cleveland @ Toronto

Game 511-512
May 3, 2018 @ 6:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
115.687
Toronto
124.574
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 9
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 6 1/2
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-6 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 3

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PHILADELPHIA (56 - 32) at BOSTON (60 - 30) - 5/3/2018, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off an upset win as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 52-36 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 50-35 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-6 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (55 - 35) at TORONTO (63 - 26) - 5/3/2018, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 199-250 ATS (-76.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 13-7 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 15-6 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
13 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 3

76ers @ Celtics (1-0)
Horford/Rozier shot combined 21-30 from floor in Boston’s 117-101 Game 1 win; Celtics’ subs were +27 for game. Philly lost four of five games with Boston this year; three of those five games stayed under the total. Celtics won/covered their last six home games. Over is 10-2 in their last 12 games. 76ers won nine of their last ten road games; they’re 20-2 in last 22 games overall. 76ers were even in Redick’s 34:00 on floor in Game 1; they were -16 in 14:00 he was out. Sixers need more from Covington, who was 0-6 from floor in 27:00.

Cavaliers (1-0) @ Raptors 

Cavaliers rallied back from 14 down to pull out Game 1 in OT; Cleveland was +8 (13-5) in turnovers- Smith/Korver shot combined 13-28 in support of James, who scored 28. Cavaliers are 3-1 vs Toronto this season, winning last three meetings- they split a pair here. Cleveland split its last eight road games; six of their last nine games stayed under total. Toronto won seven of its last eight home games; they’re 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven. Under is 3-1 in Raptors’ last four games. Toronto needs to do better than shooting 9-28 on the arc.

Second Round
Pelicans-Warriors
GState 123-101, -7.5, O223.5
GState 121-116, -11, O229

Jazz-Rockets
Hst 110-96, -11.5, U206.5
Utah 116-108, +10.5, O205

76ers-Celtics
Bos 117-101, +5, O205

Cavaliers-Raptors
Clev 113-112 OT +7, O213.5

First Round
Wizards-Raptors
Tor 114-106, -7.5, O211
Tor 130-119, -7, O214
Wsh 122-103, -1, O217.5
Wsh 106-98, +1.5, U217
Tor 108-97, -7, U216
Tor 102-92, -2, U214.5
Raptors win series, 4-2

Heat-76ers
Phil 130-103, -6.5, O212
Mia 113-103, +6.5, U217
Phil 128-108, -2.5, O213.5
Phil 106-102, -4, U212.5
Phil 104-91, -10, U215.5
76ers win series, 4-1

Bucks-Celtics
Bos 113-107 OT, -4.5, O199.5
Bos 120-106, -1, O200
Mil 116-92, -5, O205.5
Mil 104-102, -5.5, O203.5
Bos 92-87, -4.5, U202.5
Mil 97-86, -4.5, U201.5
Bos 112-96, -4.5, O196
Celtics win series, 4-3

Pacers-Cavaliers
Ind 98-80, +7.5, U212.5
Clev 100-97, -8, U209
Ind 92-90, -1.5, U209.5
Clev 104-100, -1.5, U206.5
Clev 98-95, -6.5, U206
Ind 121-87, -1.5, O202
Clev 105-101, -5.5, O200.5
Cavaliers win series, 4-3

Spurs-Warriors
GState 113-92, -8, U209.5
GState 116-101, -9 O205.5
GState 110-97, -3.5, O205.5
SA 103-90, +5.5, U206.5
GState 99-91, -11, U204.5
Warriors win series, 4-1

Pelicans-Blazers
NO 97-95, +5.5, U216.5
NO 111-102, +6, U216
NO 119-102, -3.5, O215.5
NO 131-123, -6.5, O217
Pelicans win series, 4-0

Jazz-Thunder
OKC 116-108, -4.5, O205
Utah 102-95, +4, U206.5
Utah 115-102, -5, O209
Utah 113-96, -5, O208
OKC 107-99, -2.5, U207.5
Utah 96-91, –7, U207.5
Jazz win series, 4-2

Wolves-Rockets
Hst 104-101, -11.5, U215.5
Hst 102-82, -10.5, U212.5
Minn 121-105, +6, O217
Hst 119-100, -6, O217
Hst 122-104, -12, O217
Rockets win series, 4-1




NBA

Thursday, May 3

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Trend Report
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Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Cleveland is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 7-13-1 ATS in its last 21 games
Toronto is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Toronto is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
Toronto is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Toronto is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Toronto is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland


Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games
Philadelphia is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games
Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Philadelphia is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing Boston
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Philadelphia is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston's last 12 games
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games at home
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


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Current NBA Playoffs betting stats:

Home Teams:
38-13 Straight Up
30-20-1 ATS (60%)

Favorites:
40-11 Straight Up
31-19-1 ATS (62%)

Over-Under: 27-24

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, MAY 3
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at TOR 06:00 PM
TOR -6.5
U 212.5

PHI at BOS 08:30 PM
PHI -4.5
U 205.5

[StarDust Bum]

James scores 43, Cavs take 2-0 lead with rout of Raptors
May 3, 2018

TORONTO (AP) LeBron James had 43 points and 14 assists, Kevin Love added 31 points and 11 rebounds, and the Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Toronto Raptors 128-110 on Thursday night to take a 2-0 lead in their second-round playoff series.

J.R. Smith scored 15 points, Jeff Green had 14 and George Hill 13 as the Cavaliers posted their eighth consecutive postseason victory over the Raptors and halted Toronto's four-game winning streak in Game 2s. The Raptors entered 6-1 all-time when playing Game 2 at home.

James had eight rebounds, narrowly missing his second straight triple-double. He connected on 19 of 28 attempts, while Love shot 11 for 21.

DeMar DeRozan scored 24 points and Kyle Lowry had 21 for the Raptors. Toronto won a team-record 59 games and finished as the top-seeded team in the Eastern Conference this season, but was easily shoved one step closer to a third straight postseason exit at the hands of James and the Cavs.

Jonas Valanciunas had 16 points and 12 rebounds and Fred VanVleet scored 14 points, but the Raptors lost back-to-back home games for the first time all season.

CELTICS 108, 76ERS 103

BOSTON (AP) - Rookie Jayson Tatum scored 21 points and hit a pair of free throws in the closing second, and Boston rallied from a 22-point deficit to beat Philadelphia and take a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Terry Rozier added 20 points, nine assists and seven rebounds. Marcus Smart finished with 19 points and five rebounds as the Celtics improved to 6-0 at TD Garden this postseason. They have never blown a 2-0 lead.

Game 3 is Saturday in Philadelphia.

J.J. Redick had 23 points for the 76ers, making five 3-pointers. Robert Covington added 22 points and nine rebounds. Joel Embiid finished with 20 points, 14 rebounds and five assists, but rookie star Ben Simmons missed all four shots and had just one point.

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY MAY 4, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:00 PM Golden State Warriors New Orleans Pelicans Smoothie King Center
10:30 PM Houston Rockets Utah Jazz Vivint Smart Home Arena

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY MAY 5, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
5:00 PM Boston Celtics Philadelphia 76ers Wells Fargo Center
8:30 PM Toronto Raptors Cleveland Cavaliers Quicken Loans Arena

SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY MAY 6, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
3:30 PM Golden State Warriors New Orleans Pelicans Smoothie King Center
8:00 PM Houston Rockets Utah Jazz Vivint Smart Home Arena


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MAY'S NBA BEST BET RECORD: ( BASED ON 5 UNITS )

05/03/2018 0-4-0 0.00% -22.00
05/02/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/01/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50

Totals...............3-7-0.........30.00%.....-23.50


BEST BETS................ATS....................UNITS.. ................O/U..............UNITS..............TOTAL

05/03/2018...............0 - 2..................-11.00..................0 - 2..............-11.00............-22.00
05/02/2018...............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
05/01/2018...............1 - 1..................- 0.50...................0 - 2.............-11.00.............-11.50

Totals........................2 - 3..................-6.50...................1 - 4..............-17.00...............-23.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Highest-paid college football coaches:

1. Urban Meyer, Ohio State $8,485,559

2. Nick Saban, Alabama $8,275,000

3. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan $7,728,571

4. Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M $7,500,000

T5. Gus Malzahn, Auburn $7,000,000

T5. Kirby Smart, Georgia $7,000,000

Quote of the Day
“I got a text from Charles Woodson who told me ‘your son has to retire’.There’s no way he can put that red helmet on his head’. Part of me felt that way, but in all seriousness it’s a good opportunity for him and I was hoping that he would land at a spot that will kind of grow him to that position. He can play D-tackle, but I think he could be special on the offensive line.”
Raiders’ GM Reggie McKenzie

Friday’s quiz
Where is the Basketball Hall of Fame located?

Thursday’s quiz
John Elway played one season of minor league baseball in Oneonta, NY, in the New York-Penn League.

Wednesday’s quiz
Bob Costas was once radio announcer for the ABA’s Spirits of St Louis.


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Friday’s List of 13: Questions, questions, always questions……..

13) Why do baseball teams in New York City, Boston, Philly and Washington all have new managers this year, none of whom ever managed in the majors before?

Its like all of a sudden the over-educated geniuses in the front office decided that a manager is an overrated thing. There is a human element in sports that should never be discounted, even though it can’t really be quantified.

12) Why does an NFL prospect jump up the draft charts so far, from the time the college season ends to the draft? Games should count more than workouts.

If the NFL Draft had been held on February 1st, I don’t think Baker Mayfield is the #1 pick.

11) Why didn’t the Twins put a retractable dome on their ballpark? If you look at attendance in Milwaukee, Twins are losing out on 300-400,000 paid admissions a year by not having a roof.

10) Shouldn’t high school basketball players be able to go pro right from high school, the way baseball players can?

9) If baseball expands to 32 teams, would they dare expand to Montreal and Monterrey, MX in the same year. Seems like Portland, OR wants a team; wonder if the A’s would go there?

8) Why are the NHL’s Las Vegas Golden Knights so good? They’re the most successful expansion team in the history of the four major sports.

7) Why do some teams bat their pitchers 8th? It makes no sense. No one has done it in a playoff game, which tells me it is a gimmick no one truly believes in.

6) Should a convicted felon be allowed to hold political office in this country?

5) Shouldn’t baseball writers be able to come up with more interesting stories on April 30 than their annual speculation on which big-money teams will poach good players from small market teams at the trade deadline, which is July 31?

4) Shouldn’t the NBA move its draft around the country, like the NHL and NFL do? Seems to generate lot of interest in the host city.

3) Why does only one league have the DH? Who thought that was a good idea?

2) Why doesn’t every college student take a money management course? Wouldn’t that be a good thing to be well-versed in when you get out in the real world? Managing your time and your money are very important.

1) Why did the Red Sox fire Terry Francona as their manager? Guy won them two World Series after a drought of almost 100 years, and they get rid of the guy after 89-73/90-72 seasons.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Playoff Tips
May 3, 2018

Western Conference Semifinals – Warriors lead 2-0
No. 2 Golden State at No. 6 New Orleans (ESPN, 8:05 p.m. ET)

Stephen Curry returned Tuesday and despite not playing since mid-March, the All-Star scored 28 points as Golden State ran past New Orleans 121-116. The Warriors failed to cover as 11-point home favorites and that was somewhat of a "Bad Beat" as the Pelicans closed the game with a meaningless 10-2 run.

The Warriors finished 43-of-91 (47%) from the field in Game 2 and Curry helped that cause with an 8-of-15 effort off the bench. He was 5-of-10 from 3-point land and a perfect 7-of-7 from the stripe. Kevin Durant led all scorers with 29 points and Draymond Green barely missed his second triple-double of the series with 20 points, 12 assists and nine rebounds.

Anthony Davis led the Pelicans in both points (25) and rebounds (15) in Tuesday’s loss. The backcourt of Jrue Holiday (24 points) and Rajon Rondo (22 points, 12 assists) played much better in Game 2 after combining for just 20 points in the opener. However, the bench was outscored 44-13 albeit that disparity was helped with Curry’s production.

Entering this series, New Orleans was the hottest team in the league as it closed the regular season with five straight wins before completing a four-game sweep over Portland in the first round.

In the four wins over the Trail Blazers, AD went off for 33 points per game, 11.8 rebounds per game and 2.8 blocks. While he hasn’t been terrible in this series (23 PPG, 12.5 RPG), it’s apparent that New Orleans is going to need a “LeBron-like” performance from their best player to even compete against Golden State.

It’s not surprising at all that Golden State leads 2-0 and when you look at the recent head-to-head history, it’s hard to make a case for New Orleans to avoid the sweep. Including this series, Golden State has gone 28-4 SU and 18-13-1 ATS against the Pelicans dating back to 2011 and that includes a 6-0 record in the postseason. Even more impressive, the Warriors have gone 14-1 in their last 15 trips to “The Big Easy.”

In their two visits to New Orleans this season, the Warriors cruised to a pair of victories (125-115, 128-120) but they failed to cover the number in one of those games due to the high spreads (-9, -9). If you go back to the 2016 regular season, the wins by Golden State came by four and eight points yet the lines on those games ranged from 11 to 11 ½ points.

Fast forward to Friday and Golden State only opened as a 4 ½-point favorite for Game 3 and that number has held steady as of Thursday evening. I personally believe the number should be higher and when I think the line is too short, I usually lean to the ‘dog.

Keep in mind that I recently used that same approach on the Spurs as short home ‘dogs in Game 3 of their first round matchup against Golden State and the Warriors ran past them for the easy 110-97 win and cover. So using that technique obviously isn't guaranteed but I tend to avoid the "looks too easy" numbers.

Kevin Rogers of VegasInsider.com is a tad hesitant to pull the trigger on Friday’s matchup but he did provide us with angles to watch on home teams facing 2-0 playoff deficits in Game 3.

He explained, “In the 2017 postseason, home teams trailing 2-0 put together a 4-6 record both SU and ATS record in Game 3 while underdogs posted a dreadful 1-6 SU/ATS record with the only victory coming by the Grizzlies (+3 ½) over the Spurs. Fast-forward to this postseason, the numbers have improved for home squads trying to get back into a series. Teams returning home trying to slice a 2-0 deficit in half own a 3-1 both SU and ATS record as the Wizards, Bucks, and Timberwolves all won in the opening round in Game 3. “

In this year’s playoffs, home underdogs have gone 4-6 both straight up and against the spread. The odds have never come into play so if you’re leaning New Orleans, then a money-line (+160) wager could be a better look.

Another wager to watch on Friday could be on the Pelicans (+½) in the first-half but it appears that the oddsmakers are onto a popular betting trend that has gained steam via social media and forums, especially when you see the line. According to numbers from different sources and industry folks, teams down 0-2 in a playoff series while playing Game 3 at home have gone 31-4 ATS (88%) in the last four postseasons. It’s gone 3-1 in this year’s playoffs and Rogers noted the winners above.

Make a note that the Pelicans went 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS as home underdogs this season and that includes a run of five consecutive setbacks entering this game. Golden State has gone 30-13 SU and 19-24 ATS on the road this season but when laying less than five points on the road, the Warriors were a pedestrian 5-4 both SU and ATS. That record includes their aforementioned win over San Antonio in this year’s playoffs.

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia analyzed the total for Game 3.

He said, "The total here opened at 230.5 and was bet up into the 232 range, which is the highest total of the postseason by a substantial margin. The first two games went over despite being the only ones placed in the 220s, so now that Curry is back and looks like he hasn’t missed a beat, the expectation is clearly that we’ll see a shootout since the Pelicans want to run at all costs and the Warriors welcome that challenge."

"New Orleans averaged 125 points in their two first-round home wins over the Trail Blazers and posted 122.5 in their last two must-wins at home in Games 78 and 82. The two regular-season meetings between these two at Smoothie King produced 248 and 240 points, respectively, although those featured DeMarcus Cousins. With Curry back, the Dubs no longer look bogged down like they did down the stretch and at times against San Antonio, but this number is massive. We’ll see whether it’s justified."

New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ go 29-14 at home and that includes two winning tickets in the first round versus Portland. Plus, eight of the last 10 in this series has leaned to the high side.

Golden State has a rare off night at San Antonio in Game 4 on the road and dropped a 103-90 decision. Prior to that setback, the Warriors posted triple digits in 11 straight away playoff games and they’re averaging 117.6 PPG in the last six before the anomaly versus the Spurs.

Bettors believing the Pelicans can win four of the next five against the Warriors would net a return of 21/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $2,100) while the risk on Golden State appears to be somewhat untouchable (-8500) for many of us.

The pair will meet again from Smoothie King Center on Sunday in Game 4 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Western Conference Semifinals – Series tied 1-1
No. 1 Houston at No. 5 Utah (ESPN, 10:35 p.m. ET)

The late-night tip on Friday will feature another home ‘dog as Utah will look to surprise Houston for the second straight game. In what’s been a ‘chalky’ postseason, the Jazz pulled off the largest upset in this year’s edition with a 116-108 win over the Rockets as a 10 ½-point underdog. Utah was listed as high as plus-650 on the money-line.

After dropping a 110-96 decision in Game 1 and only scoring 38 points in the first-half of that loss, the Jazz came to play Wednesday and built a 64-55 break at halftime. Houston fired back with a 30-22 third quarter but they couldn’t buy a shot in the fourth quarter and was outscored 30-23 by Utah.

Shooting percentages proved to be the key factor as Utah shot well from the field (52%) plus they connected on 15-of-32 shots (47%) from 3-point land. Meanwhile, Houston finished 40 percent from the field and only made 27 percent (10-of-37) from distance.

Rockets All-Star guard James Harden led all scorers with 32 points but the man of the match was Utah forward Joe Ingles, who scored 27 points and most of that damage came with a 7-of-9 effort from 3-point land.

Looking at the numbers through the first two games, Utah (51%) has shot the ball better than Houston (42%) and the Rockets edge in 3-point shooting has been minimal (27-22) thus far. The big difference in this series for Utah has been free throw shooting and it will likely cost them a game, perhaps a cover as well. The Jazz are only shooting 60 percent from the stripe while Houston is at 80 percent and that has translated into a plus-13 edge (41-28) on the scoreboard.

For Game 3, Houston opened as a 3 ½-point road favorite over Utah and I think the line is fair considering the Rockets were -6 in their two first round matchups at Minnesota. They split those games, getting drilled by the Timberwolves 121-105 in Game 3 before rebounding with a 119-110 win in Game 4.

Keep in mind that Houston hasn’t been great on the road in the playoffs overall. Since Harden arrived in 2012, the team has gone 7-17 SU and 12-11-1 ATS as a visitor in the postseason.

The Jazz won all three of their games against Oklahoma City in the first round and they produced a 2-1 ATS mark in those victories. Prior to those wins, the Jazz were just 1-7 in their previous eight playoff encounters at home.

Rogers dug up another solid nugget for this matchup and it could have you looking at a let-down approach for Utah after its big win.

“Since 2013, five double-digit underdogs have won outright in the playoffs. The most recent team to pull off this accomplishment prior to Utah was Boston in Game 3 of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals as a 16-point ‘dog in a 111-108 upset of Cleveland,” said Rogers.

He added, “These squads own a 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS mark over the last six seasons with the Grizzlies being the only team to follow up this massive upset with a win in the next game in the 2015 Western Conference semifinals against the Warriors. None of these teams won their series in this span as the last club to grab a victory as a double-digit underdog and advance to the next round was the 2007 Warriors, who knocked out the top-seeded Mavericks.”

The Rockets opened this series as 1/12 favorites and after the split, Houston has been pushed down to minus-600 while the takeback on Utah has dropped from +750 to +450.

Game 2 saw the ‘over’ (204 ½) cash and the total has been pushed up to 207 ½ for Game 3. While the teams played to a 96-85 slugfest that Houston won at Utah back on Feb. 28, the other encounters in this series have seen plenty of points and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair.

Game 4 is set for Sunday night at 8:05 p.m. ET from Salt Lake City.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

CG Technology released spreads for every Week 1-16 game for 2018-19 NFL season. Here are a few of the more interesting spreads:

Week 11: Buccaneers @ NJ Giants (-3)
Week 12: Jaguars (-4.5) @ Buffalo
Week 13: Chargers @ Pittsburgh (-4.5)
Week 14: Vikings (-2) @ Seattle
Week 15: Raiders @ Cincinnati (-1.5)
Week 16: Packers (-6) @ NJ Jets

Quote of the Day
“Honestly, and this is maybe not something I should say, but my gut tells me that the best decision might be to move the team. I say that only because I look at the example of the Miami Marlins, and (a new stadium) didn’t really solve their attendance issues. So from purely an attendance standpoint, somewhere else might be better.”
Evan Longoria

Sunday’s quiz
Which NHL team used to be the Winnipeg Jets, before moving to the US?

Saturday’s quiz
Ozzie Guillen managed the White Sox when they won the 2005 World Series.

Friday’s quiz
Winnipeg Jets were the Atlanta Thrashers before moving to Manitoba.

**************

Sunday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Just who was Wally Pipp? You hear his name invoked even today, anytime a guy takes a day off due to injury and his replacement has a big day.

Back in 1925, 32-year old Pipp was the regular 1B in New York; he missed a game one day and a guy named Lou Gehrig took his place and never gave the job back. That winter, Cincinnati paid $7,500 for Pipp’s contract; he played three years for the Reds, then retired.

12) In a 15-year career, Pipp hit .281 with a .341 OB%; he never made an All-Star team, but led the AL in home runs twice, in 1916-17, with 12 and 9 homers. Seriously.

11) There was a kerfuffle on Twitter this week when FOX cancelled a TV show called Brooklyn Nine-Nine, which I’ve never seen. Show had been on FOX for five years. So much fuss was made that Brooklyn Nine-Nine was later picked up by NBC, which made the people who complained very happy.

Happy is good. We need more happy.

10) Then there is Lions’ coach Matt Patricia and his 1996 arrest that never went to trial.

According to the Detroit Free Press, the prosecution had a witness list that included a nurse, a doctor, a police detective, a police officer and a college friend of the alleged victim- there apparently was medical evidence, but the case never went to trial.

The Lions are standing by Patricia for now, but the NFL is still investigating.

9) 262 players made their major league debuts last season.

8) Coming into Saturday’s game, Aaron Judge had a .312 career batting average at home, compared to .239 on the road.

This season, he has 10 HR’s, 30 RBI at home, one homer, four RBI on the road.

7) Pretty good weekend to go to the ballpark if you’re a fan of the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes in the California League; Logan Forsythe batted 2nd, Justin Turner 3rd for the Quakes as they rehab from injuries. Not often you see major leaguers in the California League.

6) A man in Texas turned 112 years old Saturday; Richard Overton, America’s oldest living WWII combat veteran, celebrated his birthday. Congrats to him.

5) Shohei Ohtani has DH’d in 17 games this season, but when he pitches, he doesn’t bat.

4) Baseball stuff:
— San Diego Padres DFA’d 3B Chase Headley, brought Cory Spangenberg up from AAA.
— Brewers’ ace Chase Anderson (illness) was scratched from his start in Denver.
— Nationals put 1B Ryan Zimmerman on the DL.

By the way, the genius who runs the Padres took on $13M of Chase Headley’s salary to also acquire P Bryan Mitchell, who is 0-3, 6.21 in eight games (7 starts) this year. Brilliant.

3) Webb Simpson leads by seven shots. No player in the history of the PGA Tour has ever lost with a 54-hole lead of seven shots or more.

2) Former NBA player Kwame Brown is suing Merrill Lynch, saying the brokerage stole $17.4 million of his investments.

Brown, who made $63,992,852 in salary as a player in the NBA, claims that his signature was forged on various authorization forms and agreements, allowing his financial adviser to make investments and stock trades without his consent.

1) Dick Vitale’s annual event to fight cancer raised $3.7M Friday night; this event has now raised a total of $25.7M over the years to fight cancer, mostly pediatric cancer. Good for him.

[StarDust Bum]

Conference Finals Predictions
May 10, 2018

The NBA Conference Finals will begin this Sunday with the East leading off as Boston and Cleveland begin their best-of-seven matchup from TD Garden. One day later, the Toyota Center will host Game 1 between Houston and Golden State in the West matchup.

Throughout the 2018 playoffs our trio of NBA experts listed below have offered up their fearless predictions on every series and their records aren’t too shabby through 12 series (Exact Games).

Kevin Rogers: 9-3 (4)
Chris David: 9-3 (3)
Tony Mejia: 9-3 (3)

Below are each analyst’s predictions for the conference finals:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Matchup Kevin Rogers Chris David Tony Mejia

CAVS...........4 - 1.................4 - 3................4 - 2

2 Boston vs. 4 Cleveland

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Matchup Kevin Rogers Chris David Tony Mejia

WARRIORS.....4 - 2................4 - 2..............4 - 3

1 Houston vs. 2 Golden State


Analysis – Kevin Rogers

Although the Celtics have yet to lose a home game in the postseason, Boston still has memories of dropping all three contests to Cleveland at TD Garden in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavs have amassed three road wins in the playoffs, compared to Boston’s 1-4 mark on the highway with the only victory coming in overtime. The fact that LeBron James is playing the best basketball of his career along with seeking his eighth consecutive NBA Finals appearance, it’s hard to go against Cleveland in this series.

The last time both teams that didn’t own home-court advantage in the conference finals both made the NBA Finals was 2005 when the Spurs faced the Pistons. This can happen again in 2018 as the Warriors don’t have home-court advantage in a playoff round for the first time since 2014. However, Golden State has owned Houston in the playoffs by eliminating them in five games twice in the last four postseasons. Even though the Rockets have Chris Paul in their lineup, it will be tough for Houston to shut down this powerful Golden State offense for four victories.

Analysis – Chris David

Even though I picked against the Cavaliers in each of the first two rounds, I’m flip-flopping for the conference finals and it’s because of the “LeBron” factor. Nobody should be shocked to see Boston win the series, especially since they own the better defense and it has the homecourt edge. However as much respect as Brad Stevens gets for his schemes and game plans, he hasn’t been able to solve Cleveland and James. Since LeBron returned to Cleveland, the Celtics are 6-17 against the Cavaliers and that includes a 3-9 record at TD Garden. That record will eventually come into play and give Cleveland the confidence to advance to the finals.

I expect the Western Conference Finals to be competitive but believe Golden State will finish off Houston in six games. The Warriors have won 15 of the last 20 encounters between the pair and that includes a 4-1 win in the 2015 conference finals. While the addition of point guard Chris Paul has paid dividends for Houston, especially defensively, he just doesn’t match up well against the Warriors. When he was with the Clippers, the club went 2-14 against Golden State in his last four seasons with Los Angeles. After playing two teams (Minnesota, Utah) that can’t shoot from distance, the step up in class against the sharpshooters of Golden State will be too much for Houston.

Analysis – Tony Mejia

LeBron James has been incredible, but the difference between Indiana and Toronto was entirely about the emergence of a supporting cast that wasn't ready to play when the postseason began. Kevin Love has gotten comfortable, while George Hill is now healthy and has been a major x-factor, emerging as by far the most valuable of Cleveland's midseason acquisitions. If Jordan Clarkson can be an x-factor in a positive way off the bench against a Celtics team that lacks point guard depth, that should provide a major lift in a series where the Cavs will need to hand Boston its first home playoff loss somewhere along the way in order to advance.

The Rockets are formidable and were put together specifically to beat the Warriors in a series. Guys are healthy and confident, so I do think that oddsmakers went overboard in setting the series prices here, offering around +160 to back the top seed. The Warriors are indeed my choice to advance since I trust them on both sides of the ball a little more than I do Houston, but I'd wait until they face some adversity in the series to make a move with more favorable odds. I've been on Golden State to win the title all season, being matched with Cleveland for a fourth straight time. There's no reason to deviate from that now.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 1 - Cavaliers at Celtics
May 12, 2018

Eastern Conference – Game 1
Cleveland at Boston (ABC, 3:35 p.m. ET)

2017-18 Regular Season (Cavaliers 2-1)
Feb. 11 Cavaliers (+4.5) at Celtics 121-99 (Over 213)
Jan. 3 Celtics (-3) vs. Cavaliers 102-88 (Under 212.5)
Oct. 17 Cavaliers (-4.5) vs. Celtics 102-99 (Under 214)

For the second consecutive season, the Cavaliers and Celtics will meet for a berth in the NBA Finals. Many faces are different from both squads heading into this series, but the one thing that remains the constant is the dominance of LeBron James as he seeks an eighth consecutive Eastern Conference championship.

Cleveland escaped past Indiana in seven games of the opening round to face top-seeded Toronto in the conference semifinals. The entire series shifted in Game 1 as the Cavaliers erased an early 14-point deficit to force overtime and knock off the Raptors, 113-112 as seven-point underdogs. Cleveland went on to rout Toronto in Game 2 behind James’ 43-point effort, a buzzer-beater from James in Game 3, followed by a 35-point victory to finish off the sweep in four games.

The Cavaliers failed to cover in their first five home games of the playoffs, but easily cashed as five-point favorites in Game 4. However, Tyronn Lue’s team owns a 3-2 ATS record away from Quicken Loans Arena in the postseason, while Cleveland has compiled an incredible 15-4 SU road mark against Eastern Conference opponents in the playoffs since 2016.

The Celtics also needed seven games to advance past the first round as Boston knocked out Milwaukee in seven games. It only took five games for the Celtics to reach their second straight conference finals after beating the up-and-coming 76ers, 4-1. Boston improved to 7-0 at home in the playoffs after edging Philadelphia, 114-112 in the series clincher on Wednesday as rookie standout Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 26 points.

Prior to the season, the Celtics acquired All-Star guard Kyrie Irving from the Cavaliers for Isaiah Thomas. Neither player is the reason these teams reached this point as Irving has been sidelined since mid-March with a knee injury, while Thomas was dealt to the Lakers at the trade deadline. Irving is still the focal point of the Celtics’ franchise, but Tatum along with Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier have been carrying Boston throughout this playoff run.

While James has been the go-to option for the Cavaliers, four different Celtics are averaging over 16 points per game in the playoffs. Tatum (18.8), Rozier (18.2), Al Horford (17.0), and Brown (16.9) are looking to be the group to prevent Cleveland from making a fourth straight NBA Finals appearance, while also trying to erase the Cavaliers’ dominance over the Celtics since Brad Stevens arrived as head coach in Boston.

Stevens has done wonders in Beantown to revive the Celtics’ rebuild over the years, but Boston hasn’t gotten over the hump against Cleveland in the postseason. In 2015, the Cavaliers swept the Celtics out of the opening round in Stevens’ first playoff appearance. Boston finished below .500 that season, but made the leap two years later to 53 wins and the top seed in the Eastern Conference. However, the Cavaliers bounced the Celtics in five games of the Eastern Finals last season, including three victories by double-digits at TD Garden.

The Celtics had their season ended by the Cavaliers in 2017 and had the good fortune of opening this season with a trip to Cleveland. Not only was it the homecoming for Irving in his first game in a Celtics’ jersey, but Boston also showcased offseason acquisition Gordon Hayward in its starting lineup. Hayward’s season ended in five minutes with a gruesome leg injury on a failed alley-oop attempt, while the Celtics fell short in a 102-99 defeat as 4 ½-point underdogs.

Boston picked up revenge in the next matchup at TD Garden on January 3 as the Celtics defeated the Cavs, 102-88 as three-point favorites. Irving was limited to 11 points on 5-of-14 shooting, but Rozier burned Cleveland for 20 points off the bench, including four three-pointers. James led the Cavs with 19 points, but Cleveland was limited to 35% shooting from the floor, while hitting 8-of-32 three-point attempts.

The Cavaliers overhauled their roster on February 8 and put it to the Celtics three days later in Boston, 121-99. Seven Cavaliers finished in double-figures as Jordan Clarkson and Rodney Hood combined for 32 points in their Cleveland debuts. Tatum and Brown managed only 14 points between them, while Boston knocked down 10-of-38 attempts from downtown.

Chris David of VegasInsider.com believes Cleveland will win a hard-fought series but beating Boston at TD Garden won’t be easy.

He explained, “Even though the line is short, it’s hard to ignore what Boston has done as a home underdog (9-1 SU, 10-0 ATS) this season. This particular group of players feed off the crowd on both ends of the court and that’s showed in the playoffs as the Celtics are undefeated in seven games. Cleveland has fought through adversity on the road in this year’s playoffs and the close-call victories over both Indiana and Toronto in the first two rounds were very impressive. However if the shots aren’t falling from the outside then it spells a lot of trouble for the Cavaliers. Especially when you realize that Cleveland has gone 1-7 in their last eight road playoff games when held under 100 points and that includes two losses to the Pacers in the first round.”

The total for Game 1 opened as high as 205 ½ and has settled to 204 as of Saturday. David weighed in on the total.

He said, “These numbers will fluctuate as the series plays out and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a total listed in the nineties if Boston’s defense comes to play. That unit did its job against the 76ers, holding them to 30 percent from 3-point land but they’ll be facing a confident Cavs squad that couldn’t miss (41%) against the Raptors.”

“While I don’t put as much stock into the Celtics offense, you can’t ignore the numbers that they’ve produced at home in the playoffs under head coach Brad Stevens. They’ve put up triple digits in six of seven at home this postseason and that’s translated into a 6-1 ‘over’ mark. Since Stevens took over, the ‘over’ has gone 15-7 (68%) in playoff games at TD Garden,” David added.

NBA expert Tony Mejia breaks down what Cleveland’s supporting cast needs to do to be successful, “Between April 15 and May 1, Kevin Love averaged 10.9 points and shot less than 32 percent from the field (30-for-94) over his first eight playoff games. In Cleveland’s last three wins against Toronto, he went for 25 points per game on 54 percent shooting, doing so without filling it up from 3-point range. If he’s over playing tentatively because he didn’t feel 100 percent, the Cavs may very well deserve to be as heavy a favorite in this series as oddsmakers think they should be.”

The Cavaliers opened as a -260 favorite on the series price at Sportsbook.ag, while the Celtics sit at +220 odds to win this series. To put it in perspective compared to last season’s Eastern Conference Finals, Cleveland was listed as a -550 favorite, compared to Boston at +420 as the Celtics owned home-court advantage both times.

[StarDust Bum]

Cavs, Celtics ready for ECF rematch
May 12, 2018

BOSTON (AP) The jerseys and venues will be the same, but so much has changed since the last time Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics met in the Eastern Conference finals.

Kyrie Irving was dealt to Boston in a blockbuster offseason deal for Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder. But following a roster upheaval in February , the Cavs were left with only five players from last year's team that rolled past the Celtics 4-1 to earn a place in the NBA Finals.

Irving will watch this year's rematch from the sideline after a pair of knee surgeries late in the regular season denied him an opportunity to play this postseason. It was the capstone of an injury-plagued year in Boston that also saw the seasons of Gordon Hayward and rookie Daniel Theis truncated.

The one constant has been Cleveland's LeBron James, who at age 33 has again found another gear in the playoffs despite the different pieces surrounding him. His 34.3 scoring average in these playoffs is his highest since the 2009 postseason.

James can become the sixth player in league history to play in at least eight consecutive NBA Finals. The five others who have done so all played with the Celtics, led by Hall of Famer Bill Russell's run of 10 straight appearances.

James hasn't yet had a chance to reflect on his own run but says he isn't taking anything for granted at this point in his career.

''You dream about being able to play in big games in the NBA and even when I got to the NBA that was one of my only goals to be as great as I can be, to play in big games in the NBA and be remembered and I think I've done that in my career,'' he said. ''Just trying to add onto it while I can.''

The series starts Sunday in Boston. This is the eighth playoff matchup between the teams overall, with the Celtics leading 4-3.

The Celtics are seeking their first trip to the NBA Finals since 2010, when they got past James and the Cavs in the East semifinals.

Since Irving's injury, Celtics coach Brad Stevens has relied heavily on veteran Al Horford and a youthful corps that includes 24-year-olds Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart, 21-year-old Jaylen Brown and 20-year-old rookie Jayson Tatum.

Horford is averaging career playoff-high 17 points per game, while carrying the leadership torch.

Rozier has flourished in a starting role since Irving was sidelined in mid-March. It's carried over into the postseason where he is averaging 18.2 points per game. And Tatum is coming of a series against Philadelphia that saw him average 23.6 points per game - the second-highest by a Celtics rookie in franchise history.

''I feel like we more together (than last year),'' Rozier said. ''Obviously guys been going down all year and it's like you never know who's going to down. But we found a way, we pulled together.''

As for Rozier's prediction for the series?

''Stay tuned,'' he said.

Some other things of note in the Eastern Conference finals:

BUCKEYE ROOTS

Like James, Rozier first bounced a ball in Northeast Ohio.

Rozier is from Shaker Heights, Ohio, a suburb on Cleveland's east side. He's been on James' hoops radar since he was a high school freshman. And while Rozier has been a breakout star in these playoffs to NBA fans, James knew he would eventually shine.

''He was a confident kid then when I watched him at Shaker. And he's a confident player now, so I'm not surprised,'' James said. ''He's gotten better and better. It was a steal when they drafted him out of Louisville, and he's just showcasing his abilities. ... So, everybody is going crazy over what he's doing but I'm not. He's a local guy.''

(TD) GARDEN PARTY

Boston has become a preferred spring destination for James.

After a 2-9 start to his playoff career in New England, James has won his six straight postseason games on the road against the Celtics, a streak that began with his epic 45-point, 15-rebound performance in Game 6 for Miami in the 2012 conference finals. In those six wins, James averaged 34.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists.

James has averaged 30.5 points, 8.8 rebounds and 6.1 assists while going 8-9 on Boston parquet's hardwood.

Since losing two straight series with Cleveland to Boston in 2008 and 2010, James has eliminated the Celtics four times, going 8-1 in the past two matchups.

CELTIC PRIDE

Indiana pushed Cleveland to seven games in the opening round. The Pacers were physical, resilient and confident.

The Cavs feel the young Celtics might be a greater challenge.

''Boston is better than Indiana,'' Cavs forward Kyle Korver said. ''With as much respect as we have for Indiana, obviously, they took us to seven, I think defensively Boston is elite. They're really good. They're always in the right spot. They have a great game plan.

''For sure the Indiana series has prepared us for the playoffs in a lot of ways. Now that we're through that series, we're glad.''

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Conference Finals preview capsules
May 12, 2018

Capsules for NBA's conference finals that start Sunday in the East, Monday in the West:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

No. 2 BOSTON CELTICS (55-27, 8-4) vs. No. 4 CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (50-32, 8-3)

Season series: Cavaliers, 2-1.

Story line: Cleveland's LeBron James is one round away from his eighth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals, and it's an East finals rematch between two franchises that look incredibly different than they did 12 months ago. Kyrie Irving went from Cleveland to Boston last summer; his season is over because of a knee injury. Isaiah Thomas went from Boston to Cleveland in that deal; his season is over because he's long moved on from the Cavs. It's two teams that were written off plenty of times this season, yet here they are again.

How They Got Here: Boston beat No. 7 Milwaukee 4-3 and No. 3 Philadelphia 4-1. Cleveland beat No. 5 Indiana 4-3 and No. 1 Toronto 4-0.

Key Matchup: Boston's Al Horford vs. Cleveland's Kevin Love. James is going to be great; that's a given. The Cavs will need their second-best player to be great as well, or else that opens the door for Celtics coach Brad Stevens to preying on weaknesses.

Prediction: Cavaliers in 6.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 HOUSTON ROCKETS (65-17, 8-2) vs. No. 2 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (58-24, 8-2)

Season series: Rockets, 2-1.

Story line: The matchup seemed inevitable. The Rockets went out and got Chris Paul, with hopes of being the team that ends Golden State's three-year stranglehold on the Western Conference crown. Houston has the home-court edge, sure, but the Warriors have won at least one road game in 17 consecutive playoff series. Golden State is bidding for a third title in four years, and the Rockets are an absurd 50-5 when Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela play in the same game.

How They Got Here: Houston beat No. 8 Minnesota 4-1 and No. 5 Utah 4-1. Golden State beat No. 7 San Antonio 4-1 and No. 6 New Orleans 4-1.

Key Matchup: Golden State's Kevin Durant vs. Houston's Trevor Ariza. The backcourt matchup - Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson for the Warriors, Paul and Harden for the Rockets - will be unbelievable. But Ariza is going to have to find a way to keep Durant in some sort of check, especially it seems like Curry is back to normal after his knee injury.

Prediction: Warriors in 6.

[StarDust Bum]

Eastern Conference Outlook
May 11, 2018

Do We Dare Doubt The Celtics?

We’ve been in this situation before with Boston. They’re up against yet another superstar in a playoff series they have no business competing in given their injury tattered roster. After dealing with a handful of Giannis Antetokounmpo over seven games, and then actively shutting down Ben Simmons and the Philadelphia 76ers in a great performance, the Boston Celtics now stare down the barrel of a shotgun named LeBron James.

The easy route here is to just say that the Celtics don’t have the horses to keep up with the Cavaliers, who are coming off a sweep of the mentally shattered Toronto raptors. Normally, the series with the best player usually wins out in the NBA playoffs. But as I said, the Celtics have overcome the odds so far. It’s not as simple as saying that the Cavaliers are going to rip through them.

Playoff basketball is a completely different animal, and one that Brad Stevens has seemingly figured out how to tame. It’s one thing to take out a mismanaged Bucks team, or the young and inexperienced Sixers. The downside is that the Celtics have played 13 games. The upside is that they’ve fine tooled their new-look set over the course of 13 action packed games.

Dealing with LeBron James is a different kettle of wild beasts, but this Celtics squad is groomed for this moment. Born through hellfire, so to speak.

The oddsmakers have determined that the longer the series goes on, the more it favors the Boston Celtics. Their series odds get stronger as the series moves along, with a Win in 7 games posting the strongest number overall at +650. Cleveland is the heavy favorite overall, as you can tell by the futures.

Eastern Conference Series Exact Game Outcome Odds -

Cleveland Win in 6 +300
Cleveland Win in 5 +400
Cleveland Win in 4 +500
Cleveland Win in 7 +500
Boston Win in 7 +650
Boston Win in 6 +1000
Boston Win in 5 +1200
Boston Win in 4 +2500

If there’s anything that you should keep in mind, it’s that we’ve only seen this Cavaliers team for basically five games. They emerged from the Pacers series born anew, and then lined up against a Toronto team that they have complete confidence against. What we haven’t seen is the Cavaliers come unhinged, or put up against the wall. And it can happen. This is the playoffs, after all.

One of the reasons that people are so up in arms about the Raptors getting swept is that the Cavaliers are imperfect. It’s true that they have seemingly morphed back in to their 2016 NBA Champion form, with the same players. But if there’s a flaw in their game Stevens is going to dig it out and bring it to the surface.

The largest issue for the Cavaliers remains their interior defence. They allowed 50, 62, 42 and 52 points in the paint against Toronto. It’s a weakness that Toronto rarely exposed, and one that they also had. Boston doesn’t necessarily present themselves as a team that can really dominate on the inside, but they absolutely have the weapons.

The Celtics ranked 28th in percentage of points in the paint with just 38.3 percent. That’s because they were largely designed as a perimeter team with Kyrie Irving. It requires a big gear change, but it’s one that the Celtics are capable of. Al Horford is coming off a sneaky remarkable series where he dominated Joel Embiid. He has absolutely taken the mantle as the go-to guy for the Celtics.

And where Toronto lacked any semblance of a game plan to exploit the Cavaliers’ soft perimeter and interior defence, the Celtics are not going to shy away. From the incredible development of Scary Terry Rozier, the continued brilliance of the Jay’s (Brown and Tatum) and the always incredible outbursts from Marcus Smart, there’s plenty of weapons here.

Cleveland is a bigger, more experienced team with a loaded canon in the form of LeBron James. He’s not the issue. Nor is Kevin Love. It’s the remainder of the team.

Boston doesn’t just beat you straight up – they spread you thin by always assaulting with five capable scorers. If Cleveland runs J.R. or Korver out there too long, the Celtics will slither through the holes that they provide defensively.

Mentally, the Celtics are way stronger than the fragile Raptors and that’s an important component to this series. With Kyrie Irving, they would have the x-factor they need to put the Cavaliers to task (and oh the drama!), but even without him they’re not a team you can just put to bed before the series even starts. But they have Brad Stevens and that has proven to be rocket fuel for them.

Eastern Conference Schedule
Game 1 – Cleveland at Boston (Sun, 5/13)
Game 2 – Cleveland at Boston (Tues, 5/18)
Game 3 – Boston at Cleveland (Sat (5/19)
Game 4 – Boston at Cleveland (Mon, 5/21)
Game 5 – Cleveland at Boston (Wed, 5/23)
Game 6 – Boston at Cleveland (Fri, 5/25)
Game 7 – Cleveland at Boston (Sun, 5/27)

I’m not entirely convinced that Cleveland is this unstoppable juggernaut. You might be and that’s totally fair. I’m just not inclined to lean away from Boston just yet. They’re a heftier spread bet than you might naturally assume, and by the way they have home court advantage.

Toronto was a weak and pathetic excuse of a playoff team that shriveled in the moment. They were outplayed, and under-coached. Boston has such an intangible with Stevens’ approach to the game.

All I’m saying is that we’ve only had four games of this Cleveland team. Maybe five if you include Game 7 against Indiana. They’ve been on a roll, and if there’s anyone on the planet who can muck up the gears of the Cavaliers, it’s the Celtics and Brad Stevens.

Again, if you’re happily convinced that LeBron James is King, you’re entitled to that opinion. I just think that there’s a way to score on the defensively inept Cavaliers. Oladipo did it. The Celtics can too. I’m more convinced that Boston can steal a few games in this series than most, and that’s largely because I’m resisting the natural urge to fall under the spell of LeBron.

Luckily, the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag have crafted When Series Ends odds that don’t have a winning team attached. It’s hard to convince myself outright that the Celtics can actually win four games. I mean, it’s LeBron after all.

But I have 13 games of proof that the Celtics are a legit threat, and I have an entire season of the Cavaliers in-fighting, laying down and being victims of their own reliance on LeBron. This is not a perfect team. This is not a team that you should be comfortable on. If you’re going to bet on Cleveland, they’re most likely to win in 6. And if you’re going to swing the other way, it will take seven games for Boston to rip the mantle.

My choice is to play it safe, and bet on two futures that share similar odds. This allows me to sit back and marvel at either the spectacle that is LeBron James, or the genius of Brad Stevens at the same time.

Eastern Conference Series Prediction: Series Ends Game 6 (+225) or 7 (+240)

[StarDust Bum]

Celtics, Cavs clash Sunday
May 10, 2018
By Tom Wilkinson

Game 1 - Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics begin the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday afternoon at TD Garden, with the Cavaliers a slight favorite to win Game 1.

The Cavaliers feature LeBron James who will be trying to reach the NBA Finals for the eighth straight season, while the Celtics have overcome the loss of Kyrie Irving to reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Let’s look at Game 1 on Sunday and NBA picks.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Date and Time: Sunday, May 13, 2018, 3:30 p.m. Eastern
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
NBA Odds Cavaliers -1, Total 205
Cavaliers vs. Celtics TV Coverage: ABC

The Celtics have the home court advantage in this series, but the Cavaliers are nearly a 3-1 favorite to win the series. Cleveland is also a slight favorite to win Game 1. There are two reasons the Cavaliers are such heavy favorites to win the series even though they don’t have the home court edge. First, the sportsbooks have a liability on the Cavaliers, so they are looking to attract Boston money. Second, the Cavaliers have the best player in the series in LeBron James who is averaging 34.3 points per game in the playoffs.

This is the second straight season the Cavaliers and Celtics will be meeting in the Eastern Conference Finals. Neither team looks much like they did a year ago, as only nine of the 24 players who were in last year’s East Finals are playing this time around. Cleveland has two solid scoring options in James and Kevin Love, while the Celtics rely on Jayson Tatum and Terry Rozier.

This series really comes down to whether or not Boston can slow down LeBron. Marcus Morris will likely get the bulk of the work against LeBron and Morris did well against Ben Simmons in the last round. Morris is a physical player who will try and keep LeBron in check, but no one can guard LeBron. Morris didn’t stop LeBron in two regular season meetings and he isn’t going to stop him in this series. Morris will need a lot of help.

Key Player

We could go on and on about LeBron, but everyone already knows he is unstoppable. The key in this series is slowing him down. The key player who might be able to slow down LeBron is not Morris, but Al Horford. He has gone up against LeBron a lot and he has played him tough. He will be counted on heavily to give help on LeBron. Horford will also have to handle Kevin Love. If Horford can make Love a non-factor and give some help on LeBron, then the Celtics have a chance to win this series and Game 1.

Key Stats

The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Boston. The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing with three or more days of rest.

If you are looking to play the total you should know that the Over is 5-1 in the Cavaliers last 6 overall. The Over is 5-2 in the Cavaliers last 7 road games. The Over is 16-5 in the Celtics last 21 home games.

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Free Picks

The Cavaliers have LeBron, but the Celtics have home court and they have the better coach in this series in Brad Stevens. Can Stevens find a way to slow down LeBron and win Game 1? There is no question that the value is on Boston, as they are unbeaten at home in the playoffs and yet they are getting points in Game 1 on Sunday. We’ll take the Celtics to win Game 1. There should also be some excellent value on the total, as the Cavaliers don’t play much defense and the trends point to a high scoring game. We’ll also take the game to go over the total.

Cavaliers vs. Celtics ATS Pick: Celtics and Over the total
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Score Prediction: Celtics 108, Cavaliers 105