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Weekend Outlook
April 28, 2017
Before the season started the Colorado Rockies were 60/1 (Bet $100 to win $6,000) to win the World Series and the Arizona Diamondbacks were 100/1 (Bet $100 to win $10,000). After just one month of play those odds have been slashed in half as both have controlled the National League West division. They hook up in Phoenix for a three-game set in what is the most intriguing series of the weekend.
Most of us came into spring training with the mindset that the Giants and Dodgers would be battling once again for the NL West crown. The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and the Giants have Bruce Bochy. That's just how the order of things work in the NL West, or at least that's the way things have been. So far in 2017, the Dodgers and Giants both have losing records.
Arizona (15-9) took over first-place by a half-game last night with a 6-2 win over the Padres following Colorado's 16-5 afternoon loss to the Nationals. The Rockies (14-9) pitching staff showed its first sign of being over-matched by any team allowing the Nats 46 runs over the four-game series in which Washington won the last three.
The Diamondbacks recipe for success has been playing at Chase Field where they've gone 11-3 averaging 7.2 runs a game while batting .320. In 10 road games they've gone 4-6. They gotten steady starting pitching with a bullpen that has been surprisingly good. New closer Fernando Rodney had started the season going 6-for-6 in save opportunities until giving up five runs in the ninth against San Diego on Wednesday.
All the Arizona bats seem to be clicking at the same time with seven of its regulars hitting .291 or higher. Buried within all the impressive hitting numbers is the fact that their 27 steals lead baseball. The combination of speed and power have helped Arizona be the most profitable team at +8.4 units. Colorado is fourth-best at +6.0 units.
The Diamondbacks have gone 12-7 at home against the Rockies in the past three seasons and the Over has gone 12-5-2. In all meetings the past three seasons, including Coors Field, 25 of the 36 games have gone Over. This season, Arizona has gone 10-3-1 to the Over at Chase Field. Look for the Over trend to continue this weekend.
Scheduled rotation: Robbie Ray (2-0) vs Kyle Freeland (2-1), Zack Greinke (2-2) vs. Tyler Anderson (1-3), Patrick Corbin (2-3) vs. German Marquez (0-1)
Series Price: Diamondbacks -175, Rockies +155
Here's a look some of the series I'm excited to watch this weekend:
Baltimore (14-6) at New York Yankees (13-7)
Scheduled rotation: Gausman (1-2) vs. Sabathia (2-1), Jimenez (1-0) vs. Pineda (2-1), Miley (1-1) vs. Montgomery (1-1)
Series Price: Yankees -160, Orioles +135
The Yankees come off a five game road trip, winning three of them -- the last two at Fenway Park. They're one of the hottest teams in baseball having won 12 of their last 15, including going 8-1 on their only home stand. Baltimore comes in as the third most profitable team (+7.4 units) and have won six of its last eight road games. They are the AL East leader. This is what Baltimore does every year under Buck Showalter. They also like facing C.C. Sabathia, going 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
New York Mets (8-13) at Washington (16-6)
Scheduled rotation: DeGrom (0-1) vs. Scherzer (3-1), Wheeler (1-2) vs. Strasburg (2-0), Syndergaard (1-1) vs. Ross (1-0)
Series Price: Nationals -200, Mets +170
The Mets are on a 1-10 run have their highest rated daily player, Yoenis Cespedes, doubtful with a strained hamstring. They look every bit like a last-place team. They've belted 30 homers, but bat an NL-low .209. They've been hard to watch nightly. The first-place Nationals are the complete opposite. They're fun to watch leading baseball with 6.3 runs a game, a .284 batting average and .842 OPS. Washington comes off a sweep at Coors Field and have won 10 of its last 11, which includes a sweep last weekend against the Mets at Citi Field. Another sweep here?
Chicago Cubs (12-9) at Boston (11-10)
Scheduled rotation: Arrieta (3-0) vs Pomeranz (1-1), Lackey (1-3) vs. Wright (1-2), Hendricks (2-1) vs. Rodriguez (1-1)
Series Price: Cubs -120, Red Sox +100
Theo Epstein built teams that ended Boston's 86 year drought and he also ended Chicago's 108 year wait. He's a baseball hero on a level never seen before. He's a Hall-of-Famer now and a Cubs-Red Sox world series is certainly a possibility. They're both favorites to win the pennant -- Cubs are 2-to-1 while the Red Sox are 3-to-1 co-favorites with two others. The two teams last met for three in 2014 at Fenway Park with the Cubs sweeping.
The Sox haven't found their groove yet this season losing four of their last five. The Cubs have won six of their last eight and taken over the NL Central lead. Boston has gone 7-0-1 to the Under in its last eight games. The best news for Cubs is they have to face Chris Sale, who pitched Thursday in a 3-0 loss to the Yankees. The Cubs look collectively better than the Red Sox right now; the series price looks cheap.
Cincinnati (10-12) at St. Louis (11-11)
Scheduled rotation: Adelman (0-0) vs. Lynn (2-1), Arroyo (2-2) vs. Leake (3-1), Garrett (2-2) vs. Wacha (2-1)
Series Price: Cardinals -215, Reds +175
Cincinnati took two of three at St. Louis three weeks ago, but both these teams are playing drastically different right now. Everything I hated about the Reds that I was wrong about in the first three weeks is starting to come true again as they've lost seven of their last eight. The Cardinals have won eight of their last 10 and believe that's the real version of the squad, showed what they hope is their real team, not the team that started 3-9.
With Cincinnati's pitching staff coming back to earth allowing 48 runs in its last five, the total Over in this series might offer value. St. Louis has gone Over in in last four games and Cincinnati is on a six game Over streak.
April 28, 2017
Before the season started the Colorado Rockies were 60/1 (Bet $100 to win $6,000) to win the World Series and the Arizona Diamondbacks were 100/1 (Bet $100 to win $10,000). After just one month of play those odds have been slashed in half as both have controlled the National League West division. They hook up in Phoenix for a three-game set in what is the most intriguing series of the weekend.
Most of us came into spring training with the mindset that the Giants and Dodgers would be battling once again for the NL West crown. The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and the Giants have Bruce Bochy. That's just how the order of things work in the NL West, or at least that's the way things have been. So far in 2017, the Dodgers and Giants both have losing records.
Arizona (15-9) took over first-place by a half-game last night with a 6-2 win over the Padres following Colorado's 16-5 afternoon loss to the Nationals. The Rockies (14-9) pitching staff showed its first sign of being over-matched by any team allowing the Nats 46 runs over the four-game series in which Washington won the last three.
The Diamondbacks recipe for success has been playing at Chase Field where they've gone 11-3 averaging 7.2 runs a game while batting .320. In 10 road games they've gone 4-6. They gotten steady starting pitching with a bullpen that has been surprisingly good. New closer Fernando Rodney had started the season going 6-for-6 in save opportunities until giving up five runs in the ninth against San Diego on Wednesday.
All the Arizona bats seem to be clicking at the same time with seven of its regulars hitting .291 or higher. Buried within all the impressive hitting numbers is the fact that their 27 steals lead baseball. The combination of speed and power have helped Arizona be the most profitable team at +8.4 units. Colorado is fourth-best at +6.0 units.
The Diamondbacks have gone 12-7 at home against the Rockies in the past three seasons and the Over has gone 12-5-2. In all meetings the past three seasons, including Coors Field, 25 of the 36 games have gone Over. This season, Arizona has gone 10-3-1 to the Over at Chase Field. Look for the Over trend to continue this weekend.
Scheduled rotation: Robbie Ray (2-0) vs Kyle Freeland (2-1), Zack Greinke (2-2) vs. Tyler Anderson (1-3), Patrick Corbin (2-3) vs. German Marquez (0-1)
Series Price: Diamondbacks -175, Rockies +155
Here's a look some of the series I'm excited to watch this weekend:
Baltimore (14-6) at New York Yankees (13-7)
Scheduled rotation: Gausman (1-2) vs. Sabathia (2-1), Jimenez (1-0) vs. Pineda (2-1), Miley (1-1) vs. Montgomery (1-1)
Series Price: Yankees -160, Orioles +135
The Yankees come off a five game road trip, winning three of them -- the last two at Fenway Park. They're one of the hottest teams in baseball having won 12 of their last 15, including going 8-1 on their only home stand. Baltimore comes in as the third most profitable team (+7.4 units) and have won six of its last eight road games. They are the AL East leader. This is what Baltimore does every year under Buck Showalter. They also like facing C.C. Sabathia, going 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
New York Mets (8-13) at Washington (16-6)
Scheduled rotation: DeGrom (0-1) vs. Scherzer (3-1), Wheeler (1-2) vs. Strasburg (2-0), Syndergaard (1-1) vs. Ross (1-0)
Series Price: Nationals -200, Mets +170
The Mets are on a 1-10 run have their highest rated daily player, Yoenis Cespedes, doubtful with a strained hamstring. They look every bit like a last-place team. They've belted 30 homers, but bat an NL-low .209. They've been hard to watch nightly. The first-place Nationals are the complete opposite. They're fun to watch leading baseball with 6.3 runs a game, a .284 batting average and .842 OPS. Washington comes off a sweep at Coors Field and have won 10 of its last 11, which includes a sweep last weekend against the Mets at Citi Field. Another sweep here?
Chicago Cubs (12-9) at Boston (11-10)
Scheduled rotation: Arrieta (3-0) vs Pomeranz (1-1), Lackey (1-3) vs. Wright (1-2), Hendricks (2-1) vs. Rodriguez (1-1)
Series Price: Cubs -120, Red Sox +100
Theo Epstein built teams that ended Boston's 86 year drought and he also ended Chicago's 108 year wait. He's a baseball hero on a level never seen before. He's a Hall-of-Famer now and a Cubs-Red Sox world series is certainly a possibility. They're both favorites to win the pennant -- Cubs are 2-to-1 while the Red Sox are 3-to-1 co-favorites with two others. The two teams last met for three in 2014 at Fenway Park with the Cubs sweeping.
The Sox haven't found their groove yet this season losing four of their last five. The Cubs have won six of their last eight and taken over the NL Central lead. Boston has gone 7-0-1 to the Under in its last eight games. The best news for Cubs is they have to face Chris Sale, who pitched Thursday in a 3-0 loss to the Yankees. The Cubs look collectively better than the Red Sox right now; the series price looks cheap.
Cincinnati (10-12) at St. Louis (11-11)
Scheduled rotation: Adelman (0-0) vs. Lynn (2-1), Arroyo (2-2) vs. Leake (3-1), Garrett (2-2) vs. Wacha (2-1)
Series Price: Cardinals -215, Reds +175
Cincinnati took two of three at St. Louis three weeks ago, but both these teams are playing drastically different right now. Everything I hated about the Reds that I was wrong about in the first three weeks is starting to come true again as they've lost seven of their last eight. The Cardinals have won eight of their last 10 and believe that's the real version of the squad, showed what they hope is their real team, not the team that started 3-9.
With Cincinnati's pitching staff coming back to earth allowing 48 runs in its last five, the total Over in this series might offer value. St. Louis has gone Over in in last four games and Cincinnati is on a six game Over streak.
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