FYI: "BIG GAME PLAY"--MLB & CWS Record:
My current MLB-"BIG GAME PLAY"-Record is 9W-3L= 75% since 2004 ...In All Major Sports combined my "BGPs" are hitting Over 70%, since 2003...All Documented at Cover*, **, and now at Bettorschat.
*BASEBALL "BGP" (MLB & NCAA) 2003-Present Rec: 9W-3L= 75%.
Note: Below is some of my past "BGP's" I released in the Bases (MLB & CWS)from 2004-present, for you to see for yourself, their Quality, Value, & Success they have had...Enjoy
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05-15-2004, 03:12 PM
"BIG GAME PLAY"--GAME OF THE MONTH on:
Cleveland Indians -130 (ML WINNER)
-The bottom line is that the Indians are surging and the Devil Rays are slumping......This one is not so much a tale of the Pitchers for me, as it is more so a tale of who is better at the plate and on Offense.......Yes I know that defense wins games, but today, it will be a combination of both Offense and Defense of the Indians that should bring this Big Play on home for All of us today.....
Cleveland is stroking RHP's at home averaging .310 vs them.....Overall for the year, this average is a bit higher......Hell Yeah!.....TB, on the other hand, on the road vs RHP's are ONLY hitting .219 vs them....Oh Boy!
Still here are other advantages and differences between the two teams I like in this one.....Cleveland is the 3rd ranked hitting team in the League.....TB is ranked 2nd to last at the plate in the League, only above the Expose......While Cleveland ranks #3 in the League in hitting %, they also are ranked #1 in the League in OBP, whereas TB ranks again at 2nd to last in the League in these catergories......In addition, Cleveland is ranked 6th in Runs scored in the League with (187)......TB is once more ranked 2nd to last in the League in Runs Scored with just (125)....
Westbrook will take the hill for the Indians today, and in his starts where he has gotten the W's going 2-0, has pitched superby......He took out both Boston and Detroit's guns in 15 innings(1 complete game), allowing just 8 hits, and 2 runs....WOW!...His only bad outing was his last one vs Balt. where he got a ND, but was hit for 10, and gave up 6 ER's.....But again, Balt is the #3 ranked hitting team in the land tied with Cleveland, and the Devil Rays are not...
Other stats of interest favoring the Indians today are:
-Cleveland is 14-6 vs TB in their last 20 meetings.....More currently Cleveland have won the last 5 of 7 games between them....
-TB is 1-4 in Zambrano's last 5 starts....
-This will be Zambrano's 5th straight game pitching on the road, where he has not won a decision yet....At home Victor Z is a solid 3-1, but he gets no Love away from home sweet home....
-TB is ONLY 3-15 away from Home Sweet Home...
I feel that teams get pumped up to face him because he was looked upon by some to be the Great Yankee Killer.....ashe beat the Yankee's Allstar Guns twice this year.......Still, that was in his first 2 starts on the year that were way back in March and the beginning of April.....Since then, the only thing consistant about his game seems to be that his ER allowed is going up with each start, and that he gives up a HR per a game......as his last 4 starts can atest to......Not Good!
Cleveland is still behind the .500 mark by 4 games, and they would like nothing more than to get it even or above the .500 mark by the Allstar break.....Today they face a team that they have dominated in the past and one which should help in them take a step closer to getting that mark......One intangible that may also work in the Indians favor today is that the Devil Rays after last nights come from behind game, may be very emotionally and physically drained a bit after expending all their energies ONLY to fall short by 1 run.....I think this unknown factor will only help the Indians cause and provide them with a much easier win in todays game..
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05-29-2004, 10:42 PM
"BIG GAME PLAY"--UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK on:
LA +107 (EZ 10-0 WINNER!)
-Ok, I liked this one early on, but needed to review some things before I got on it.....I am going to go against Zona in their next game following a good Offensive performance backing up the Big Unit on the hill.....This is what I did following the Units last game vs Florida, and won big as Webb was dismantled by the Fish 13-5....Like I stated, it seems that Zona always gets up to play when the Big Unit is on the hill, but then falls right back to sleep when he is done.....
Webb takes the hill for the DBacks today and he hasn't won a game since 4-27....In his last 5 starts, he is 0-3 with an 5.34 ERA and allowed at least 4 ER's in 3 of his last 5 games......In his last game vs Florida, I stated that it would be his lack of control, giving up many walks, which will give the Fish who knows how to advance runners on base via stealing, an advantage and more opportunities to score runs .....
Well, Webb didn't dissappoint me in that one, as he gave up 5 walks.....Today, I have to see this lack of control by Webb and the Dodger's ability to move runners into scoring position via stolen base, which they rank 13th in the League in doing, having an advantage in getting more opportunities to produce runs.....
Webb this year has given up 33 Walks and this ranks him 2nd worst in the NL.....Also, on the road is where Webb struggles with his control....In his road games this year he has allowed these walk numbers: 4 walks, 5, 4, 1, 3, and 5 walks in his last game......Not Good!....He has though shown to be solid at times, but his lack of control has led to many more poor showing outweighing any good performances....Webb also is not one who seems to have the ability to bounce back the next game, following a bad one....This is clearly evident in his record where it shows that he suffers multiple losses before he gets another win.....Not Good!
Lima for LA is primarily a reliever, but he will get another shot at starting again tonight.....I usually don't follow relievers starting, because I feel that it is a whole new animal in itself.....But seeing as Lima has already made 3 starts this year and it has led his team to a 2-1 record when he started, gives me a little confidence in him taking the hill today.....I feel he will be able to do enough vs Zona's struggling Offense, until he gets some help from Mr Gagne to close it out.....
Some stats working against Zona in this one...
-Zona is ranked 3rd to last in OBP.
-Zona is 5th to last in the League in hitting %.
-Zona is ONLY hitting RHP's .214......LA hitting RHP's .271 at home vs them.
-Zona 3-7 in their last 10 games....Note: The Big Unit is responsible for getting 2 of them wins....
Now I know that the Dodger's are as well in a slump right now, but I feel that they will have an advantage against Webb, because of his lack of control.....The Dodger's should get guys on base via walks, if they continue to struggle at the plate....Overall though, between the two teams, the Dodger's are a better hitting squad and have a better OBP than the DBack's, in addition to being at home and coming off a lost to Zona last night, gives them additional edges tonight....Their BP of late has also been playing better than Zona's is and this another important edge before Mr Gagne steps in....I see the Dodger's, with the help from Webb, doing enough to bounce back with a much needed win tonight.....Go Dodger's!
*This was another perfectly capped out Big Game Play Winner!......Here is Arizona's losing Pitcher B Webb's final stats: he went 4 innings, allowed 8 hits, 4 ERs, gave up 2 Walks, got 4 K's, and gave up 1 HR.....End result, LA wins EZ 10-0.
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06-13-2004, 10:34 PM
"BIG GAME PLAY"--TOTAL'S GAME OF THE MONTH on:
KC/METS UNDER 9 -120 (EZ WINNER)
-Ok , I am not a really big Over/Unders capper, but when I saw this number put out on the KC/Mets game.....I had to jump all over it immediately.....This number is way to high for this pitching matchups and for these two Offensively struggling teams....Below is a few stats and trends to why I feel this is a Solid play on the UNDER....
These two pitchers are very Solid as they come....Glavine for the Mets is having a Superb year w/ a record of 6-3 and has a solid 2.21 ERA.......His opponent in KC's Greinke is an up and coming young star who is also pitching superbly on the hill so far this year.....In his first 4 starts in the Majors this year, he has posted a 1-1 record, but with a 1.73 ERA....AWESOME!....
Last year Greinke was named the Minors Best Player winning Player of the Year honors......This year, he is definately showing that he belongs in the Majors and he will be a force to be reckoned with in games, not years to come.....
Greinke's last start vs Montreal ended in a dominant win for this youngster as he allowed ONLY 3 hits, NO RUNS, got 5 K's, and allowed no Walks, in 7 innings.....Solid!....In his 3 previous games, he also pitched solidly...Vs Detriot, the #1 hitting % team, #1 team in total hits, and #4 ranked team in runs scored, he held them to 6 hits and just 2 runs.....Vs the Twins(AL Central Leader), the #17 ranked hitting % team, #14 in total hits, and #17 ranked team in runs scored, he held them to 7 hits and ONLY 1 run.....Vs the A's(AL West Leader), the #10 ranked hitting % team, #3 in total hits, and #10 ranked team in runs scored, he held them to just 5 hits and just 2 runs....OUTSTANDING!......In total vs these solid teams, Greinke's pitched 19 innings, giving up ONLY 5 runs....
Glavine for the Mets is the veteran and former CY Young Award Winner, who isnt showing any signs of an aging veteran.....He as well has been very dominant to opposing batters this year as his ERA of 2.21 in 13 starts can atest to.....This year, he also has 3 shutout games going 2-1......He has also posted two 1 run games, four 2 run games, two 3 run games, and just has two 4 run games.....Glavine this year has not had any games that he has given up more than 4 runs, and no games that he has gone less than 6 innings on the hill.....SOLID!
Ok, that should cover the first part (the pitchers), in backing this Under play.....Now here are the stats of both teams Offenses which back the Under play as well.....The Mets are ranked 2nd to last in the League in hitting % at .247 overall.....KC is ranked 4th to last in the League in hitting % at .260 overall....The Mets ranks 4th to last in the League in run production this year.....KC also is poor, ranking 5th to last in the League in run production on the year....In total hits overall on the year, the Mets rank 5th to last, but KC is worst ranking 4th to last in the League in total hits overall.....Lastly, the Mets are 5th to last in OBP in the League and the Royals are 4th to last in OBP.....Based on these poor Offensive stats for both teams, the Under looks like the way to go...
Other stats, trends, and information backing the Under play:
-The Mets are currently in their worst losing streak of the season...
-Glavine's approach(gameplan) to getting wins in each start is to allow 3 runs or less.....So far on the year, Glavine has not allowed more than 4 runs...
-In the 17 games between the two pitchers(Glavine & Greinke) they have given up just 8 HRs.
-Only 3 out of 13 games which Glavine started has ended with a run total over 9....2 out of 13 games ended in 9 runs.....and 8 out of 13 games ended Under 9 runs....
-In Glavine's 8 starts on the road, 6 of them ended Under 9 runs.....1 game over 9 runs, and 1 game ended with 9 runs scored....
-Glavine as a Favorite this season has a 1.55 ERA.
-Greinke as a Home Dog this year has an 1.29 ERA.
-The UNDER is 12-5-1 in the Mets last 18 games overall....
-The UNDER is 3-0 in Greinke's last 3 starts...
-The UNDER is 19-7-3 in KC's last 29 games overall....
-KC only hitting LHP's .236 in their last 10 games.....Mets only hitting RHP's .252 in their last 10 games overall, and .241 on the road vs them.
In conclusion, with both teams struggling on Offense at the plate, and both with their best pitchers on the hill today, it points all in the direction of a very tight and very low scoring game between the two....Runs in this one should definately be hard to come by.....Play the UNDER as a BIG GAME PLAY!
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06-22-2004, 08:12 AM
"BIG GAME PLAY"--COLLEGE WORLD SERIES PLAY on:
South Carolina -130 (EZ 15-4 WINNER)
-The Gamecocks are the SEC Champs with a record of 50-15, and ranks 3rd in the Nation overall.....This Gamecock team is coming off of a shutout loss to the Titans of Fullerton State, who is led by the All-American Catcher and local Hawaiian product, Kirk Suzuki.....and oh yeah, that so-so pitcher Jason Windsor....lol..(jk)....Them two proved to be a deadly balanced combination that totally shut down this potent Offense of the Gamecocks on Saturday...
But, today's game vs LSU is a totally different story altogether....The Gamecocks as I mentioned, is a really potent Offensive team at the plate....In fact, this Gamecock team is loaded with Talent as 7 players on the rooster has been taken in the First 12 rounds of this years MLB Draft....
This Gamecock Offense can stroke the ball Long BIG TIME....They field the most potent lineup in the CWS and lead the Nation with 102 HRs, and also have 4 players in the lineup with at least 14 HRs and 50 RBI's...The Gamecocks before Saturdays shutout, have been averaging 7 runs a game.....OUTSTANDING!
The Gamecocks though does not only rely on its Offense to win games for them.....Nope, this Gamecock team is also a very solid balanced team at the plate and on the hill.....In fact, besides their potent Offense, SC brings to this years World Series Tournament probably the Best 4 starting Pitchers....This past Saturday, we got to see one of them in Campbell who was drafted in the first round by KC....Today they more than likely will send the No. 2 Starter Aaron Rawls to the hill, who was a strikeout artist on the mound this year....Or we might see the No. 3 Starting Pitcher in Billy Buckner, who also posted solid numbers and it got him drafted in the second round this year.....Whichever of them start today won't matter for me, as both of them are equally solid....In fact here are their numbers......
SP -- Aaron Rawl (12-4, 4.29 ERA with 93 strikeouts and 16 walks in 115 innings)
SP -- Billy Buckner (6-2, 3.16 ERA)...I dont have more of Buckners numbers because of time out with illness, but like I mentioned, he was selected in the 2nd Rd of the Draft...
Helping to provide the Gamecocks with even more balance today, is their nasty ass bullpen led by the Nation's leader in Saves, Chad Blackwell...Here is Chad's numbers on the year...
RP -- Chad Blackwell (4-3, 2.79 ERA with 19 saves, 74 strikeouts and 13 walks in 58 innings)...Solid!
-LSU also possesses a very potent Offense as well....and they like SC has 7 players in the lineup whose batting average is over .300...In fact, the Tigers have a .333 team batting average and that ties them with Fullerton for Tops in the CWS...Still, LSU's weakness is not at the plate, but at the hill where their pitchers are average and many times inconsistant...Also another weakness for them, and another advantage for the Gamecocks today is that the Tiger's bullpen lacks any depth in order to confidently protect a lead or hold off surging Offenses, as evident with their lack of support in the Miami game after starter Bumstead was pulled early....Because of this lack of quality depth in the BP for LSU, they have to leave their average starters in the game much longer than they should...Not good, against an Offensive power like the Gamecocks....
In Saturday's game vs the Hurricanes of Miami, Bumstead who started for LSU's Ace Lane Mestepey, ONLY lasted 2 innings, giving up 5 runs and 8 hits....The reserve pitchers were not able to hold off Miami and gave up 4 more runs leading to a 9-5 loss, after leading twice early 3-0 and 5-3....Not good!....Today, I am not sure who will take the hill for LSU, as Starter Lane Mestepey who was replaced by Bumstead on Saturday, may still be unable to go due to a shoulder injury he suffered while celebrating in a Tiger pileup following their Super Regional Game and win last week....LSU's Coach Laval, was stated as saying that Bumstead might be available for Monday's games.....If so, he wont find it any easier at all facing this potent Lineup that the Gamecocks will let lose on him.....Miami was able to get two long jacks off of the Tigers pitchers....Today definately doesnt look good for whomever pitches for the Tigers, as again, the Gamecocks are the Best in the Land with 102 HRs on the year....Oh Boy!
These are the numbers for the LSU Tigers Starting Pitchers:
SP -- Nate Bumstead (10-3, 3.59 ERA)
SP -- Lane Mestepey (7-3, 3.43)
SP -- Justin Meier (6-2, 3.75)
RP -- Jason Determann (6-4, 3.93, one save)
*In conclusion, I feel that better balance today will be the Key to getting the win for the Gamecocks over the Tigers....Gamecocks have the advantage on the mound, at the plate, and in the Pen....LSU can only match them on Offense....But as evident from LSU's lost to Miami on Saturday, Offense without a solid defense starting with the guy on the hill is not enough, especially against a fully loaded talented team like the Gamecocks possess...Another advantage for the Gamecocks today, and one which many may overlook, is the fact that the Gamecocks also have the most experience in this tournament, playing more games in the last two years then any other team in this field....SC's Tournament experience, SC's depth on the hill, SC's explosiveness at the plate, and SC's leadership behind the plate from their Stud Catcher, and #1 draft pick of the Oakland A's, Landon Powell, should prove to be to much for the scrappy Tigers from LSU....Take the Gamecocks as a BIG GAME PLAY!
*PROBABLE STARTING LINEUPS:
-South Carolina Gamecocks:
SS -- Steven Tolleson (.320 AVG, 3 HR, 23 RBI)
3B -- Bryan Triplett (.274, 7, 35)
1B -- Steve Pearce (.327, 20, 65)
C -- Landon Powell (.332, 19, 65)
2B -- Kevin Melillo (.304, 9, 35)
RF -- Brendan Winn (.310, 18, 64)
LF -- Michael Campbell (.315, 14, 50)
DH -- Ryan Mahoney (.257, 2, 14)
CF -- Davy Gregg (.322, 0, 24)
SP -- Matt Campbell (10-4, 2.88 ERA)
SP -- Aaron Rawl (12-4, 4.29)
SP -- Billy Buckner (6-2, 3.16)
RP -- Chad Blackwell (4-3, 2.79, 19 saves)
LSU Tigers:-
CF -- J.C. Holt (.390 AVG, 6 HR, 51 RBI)
LF -- Ryan Patterson (.340, 14, 64)
C -- Matt Liuzza (.330, 9, 45)
RF -- Jon Zeringue (.387, 12, 55)
DH -- Nick Stavinoha (.335, 8, 42)
3B -- Clay Harris (.295, 7, 51)
2B -- Ivan Naccarata (.277, 5, 33)
1B -- Will Harris (.329, 7, 39)
SS -- Blake Gill (.344, 5, 41)
SP -- Nate Bumstead (10-3, 3.59 ERA)
SP -- Lane Mestepey (7-3, 3.43)
SP -- Justin Meier (6-2, 3.75)
RP -- Jason Determann (6-4, 3.93, one save)
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06-29-2004, 03:17 AM
"BIG GAME PLAY-UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on:
Tampa Bay D-Rays +114 (EZ 10-2 BLOWOUT WINNER!)
-When your Hot your Hot.....and when your not, your not.....Well this Tampa Bay squad is freakin Smoking Hot....And although they lost last night to Florida, they did win the series vs the Defending World Champions.....Plus, last night they were facing a Smoking Hot Pitcher in Pavano who btw has a Smokin Hot Girl(Milano) who is simply lighting his Fire Big Time....TB faced a monster on the hill last night, who is on a roll, but that lost I feel will do more for this TB squad in todays game and play right into the sikee needed to get this one Big Time...
Today, TB faces off against the Toronto BJays and their Ace and last years Cy Young Award Winner Roy Halladay....I like TB today to get a solid win, and back to their winning ways.....Heres what and why, I like them....
TB's Zambrano and BJay's Halladay faced off in the Skydome on June 23 , with the BJays getting the win by a low score of 2-1, but a No Decision for both Zambrano and Halladay....In that game, both pitchers had excellent days with both giving up just one run each.....Halladay went went 8 innings allowing just 5 hits and getting 8 K's.....Zambrano lasted 7 innings in that one while ONLY giving up 4 hits total...Ok that was in Toronto and now this one is in Tampa, and things should work in favor of the D-Rays here....
One of those things that I see working in TB's favor is the fact that Halladay, though a solid pitcher, has not fared well on the road this year....posting a poor 1-4 road record with a 4.00 ERA to boot.....In his last 3 road games, he has given up 20 hits, 15 runs (5 runs in each game), 10 walks, in just a little over 17 innings on the hill....Not Good!
Zambrano, on the other hand, is an animal at home posting a Solid 6-1 record at home this year with an ERA of 3.31.....In his last 3 starts at home, he went 3-0 and allowed ONLY 10 hits, ONLY 2 runs, in just a little over 19 innings on the hill.....OUTSTANDING!....Based on these figures and performances, it clear to see that Zambrano has the edge at home over Halladay on the road....
Now, another advantage that I want to mention which favors TB today is the fact that Halladay though he has one of the lower ERA's in the AL, he also gives up a high amount of hits as well.....In fact, Halladay on the year has pitched a total of 96 innings and have given up 94 hits so far....On the road this total is 47 innings and 46 hits given up....
Zambrano, on the other hand, is the AL's leader in Walks given up....Still, he makes up for this by ranking 4th in the League in Strike Outs with 84 K's...and as far as giving up hits, Zambrano overall this year in 90 innings on the hill, has ONLY given up 76 hits....At home he gave up just 35 hits in a little over 47 innings on the hill....SOLID!
So eventhough, Zambrano gives up a lot of walks, the fact that he gets a hell of a lot of K's and gives up very little in hits, plus the fact that the BJays are in the lower half of the League in hitting and also rank 2nd to last in SB w/ only 22 successful attempts this year, gives me nothing so much to worry about with his high tendency to allow walks....His ability to control hitters at the plate and the BJays inability to take advantage of his weakness while at the plate and on base gives TB and Zambrano an advantage here...
Next, this situation or asset is one that is vastly overlooked and very undervalued by many handicappers but not me...This asset, is the ability of a team to move runners on base via Stolen Bases....This can be a very effective weapon for teams with a lot of speed like TB has, and as well for teams who is not a power hitting team like the DRays....This type of aggressive base running get more players on base into scoring position, and thus allowing teams like TB more opportunities to set them up to score more runs, or at least an opportunity to get runs period....Having the ability to play this type of aggressive ball allows TB to not have to fully depend on getting a lot of hits from its guys at the plate, in order to move runners.....Also, having this ability to steal a lot, helps to put opposing pitchers on the defensive and working on the hill double time....Instead of having to worry about the guy at the plate, they must now also worry about the guy on the base....This in effect can help out the hitter at the plate by allowing him to get more hittable or bad pitches which would help teams who are especially struggling at the plate....So far this year, TB has used this to their advantage many times and allows them to always be a threat to opposing teams when they have someone on base....TB in this very undervalued catergory is ranked 3rd Best in the League in Stolen Bases with 62 on the year...
How is this going to help get a win for TB....Well, I cant guarantee having the ability to steal second or third for that matter will get a team a win, but it will help them in giving them more opportunities to get runs in off of hits and maybe even possible throwing errors, instead of primarily depending on the guy at the plate to bring me in....The more opportunities a team gets to score, the more chances they have to win...This is Lou Piniella ball, and he is not just a master of motivation, but a master at playing aggressive ball and always keeping the pressure on their opponents at all times...
With this style of ball playing by TB and their ability to exploit it when they are on base....and the fact that Halladay has a tendency to give up a lot of hits allowing base runners to get on base....I have to say that one, it will play right into the hands of this TB Offense, and Two it will allow them more opportunities to score especially because Halladay is still one of the Best on the hill....I like it also that Halladay struggles on the road as well, and today in this ballpark, it will be very hostile place for him to have to pitch in.....
*Other stats, insights, and info that favor Tampa Bay in this one:
-Toronto is just 2-6 in their last 8 games on the road...
-Toronto is 1-4 in Halladay's last 5 games on the road...
-TB is 6-1 in Zambrano's last 7 starts...
-TB is 15-2 in their last 17 overall...
-Halladay in his last 3 starts has an ERA of 4.00...
-Zambrano in his last 3 starts has an ERA of 2.21...
-TB's BP is also pitching well...In their last 3 games they have a combined ERA of 3.49 in 59 innings...
-Toronto's BP combined in their last 3 games has a ERA of 6.52 in ONLY 29 innings...
-TB will have a lot of motivation on their side today as they will be facing Halladay, and looking to get Revenge, as he and Toronto ended their 12 game win streak....
-Tampa's house will be Rockin tonight and energies and motivations will be high as they welcome last years Cy Young Winner...and look for payback...
-TB should be fully focused after suffering a loss yesterday to Florida....But taking the series from the Defending World Champs should do a lot to further their confidence...
-TB is at home, while Toronto had a long trip to Florida....
-TB should be motivated to get back above .500 after they became the first team in Major League history to get above .500 after being below it by 18 games...I am thinking that they want to show it was no fluke...
-Toronto will be without its Top 3 hitters again in the lineup...in Carlos Delgado, Vernon Wells, and Frank Catalanotto...
-TB's first baseman Tino Martinez is expected to return to the lineup today...and this is very good news for TB..as he is batting .281 and also leads the DRays in HR's with 12 on the year...
-Lastly, Toronto has lost 13 of 24 games this month...
-Zambrano is the Yankee Killer as he beat the Evil Empire Twice this year...
**Ok Gang.....This was another perfectly capped out BIG GAME PLAY-WINNER...Like I have always mentioned, when it comes to my BIG GAME PLAYS in All Major Sports Combined, they are simply Second to None....The proof of this is in the pudding....This is just another example of another Huge BIG GAME PLAY-EZ WINNER....Hope you All got some of this.....Stay tuned for more BIG GAME PLAY-WINNERS on the horizon.....Lets get more, and LETS GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC.
My current MLB-"BIG GAME PLAY"-Record is 9W-3L= 75% since 2004 ...In All Major Sports combined my "BGPs" are hitting Over 70%, since 2003...All Documented at Cover*, **, and now at Bettorschat.
*BASEBALL "BGP" (MLB & NCAA) 2003-Present Rec: 9W-3L= 75%.
Note: Below is some of my past "BGP's" I released in the Bases (MLB & CWS)from 2004-present, for you to see for yourself, their Quality, Value, & Success they have had...Enjoy
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05-15-2004, 03:12 PM
"BIG GAME PLAY"--GAME OF THE MONTH on:
Cleveland Indians -130 (ML WINNER)
-The bottom line is that the Indians are surging and the Devil Rays are slumping......This one is not so much a tale of the Pitchers for me, as it is more so a tale of who is better at the plate and on Offense.......Yes I know that defense wins games, but today, it will be a combination of both Offense and Defense of the Indians that should bring this Big Play on home for All of us today.....
Cleveland is stroking RHP's at home averaging .310 vs them.....Overall for the year, this average is a bit higher......Hell Yeah!.....TB, on the other hand, on the road vs RHP's are ONLY hitting .219 vs them....Oh Boy!
Still here are other advantages and differences between the two teams I like in this one.....Cleveland is the 3rd ranked hitting team in the League.....TB is ranked 2nd to last at the plate in the League, only above the Expose......While Cleveland ranks #3 in the League in hitting %, they also are ranked #1 in the League in OBP, whereas TB ranks again at 2nd to last in the League in these catergories......In addition, Cleveland is ranked 6th in Runs scored in the League with (187)......TB is once more ranked 2nd to last in the League in Runs Scored with just (125)....
Westbrook will take the hill for the Indians today, and in his starts where he has gotten the W's going 2-0, has pitched superby......He took out both Boston and Detroit's guns in 15 innings(1 complete game), allowing just 8 hits, and 2 runs....WOW!...His only bad outing was his last one vs Balt. where he got a ND, but was hit for 10, and gave up 6 ER's.....But again, Balt is the #3 ranked hitting team in the land tied with Cleveland, and the Devil Rays are not...
Other stats of interest favoring the Indians today are:
-Cleveland is 14-6 vs TB in their last 20 meetings.....More currently Cleveland have won the last 5 of 7 games between them....
-TB is 1-4 in Zambrano's last 5 starts....
-This will be Zambrano's 5th straight game pitching on the road, where he has not won a decision yet....At home Victor Z is a solid 3-1, but he gets no Love away from home sweet home....
-TB is ONLY 3-15 away from Home Sweet Home...
I feel that teams get pumped up to face him because he was looked upon by some to be the Great Yankee Killer.....ashe beat the Yankee's Allstar Guns twice this year.......Still, that was in his first 2 starts on the year that were way back in March and the beginning of April.....Since then, the only thing consistant about his game seems to be that his ER allowed is going up with each start, and that he gives up a HR per a game......as his last 4 starts can atest to......Not Good!
Cleveland is still behind the .500 mark by 4 games, and they would like nothing more than to get it even or above the .500 mark by the Allstar break.....Today they face a team that they have dominated in the past and one which should help in them take a step closer to getting that mark......One intangible that may also work in the Indians favor today is that the Devil Rays after last nights come from behind game, may be very emotionally and physically drained a bit after expending all their energies ONLY to fall short by 1 run.....I think this unknown factor will only help the Indians cause and provide them with a much easier win in todays game..
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05-29-2004, 10:42 PM
"BIG GAME PLAY"--UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK on:
LA +107 (EZ 10-0 WINNER!)
-Ok, I liked this one early on, but needed to review some things before I got on it.....I am going to go against Zona in their next game following a good Offensive performance backing up the Big Unit on the hill.....This is what I did following the Units last game vs Florida, and won big as Webb was dismantled by the Fish 13-5....Like I stated, it seems that Zona always gets up to play when the Big Unit is on the hill, but then falls right back to sleep when he is done.....
Webb takes the hill for the DBacks today and he hasn't won a game since 4-27....In his last 5 starts, he is 0-3 with an 5.34 ERA and allowed at least 4 ER's in 3 of his last 5 games......In his last game vs Florida, I stated that it would be his lack of control, giving up many walks, which will give the Fish who knows how to advance runners on base via stealing, an advantage and more opportunities to score runs .....
Well, Webb didn't dissappoint me in that one, as he gave up 5 walks.....Today, I have to see this lack of control by Webb and the Dodger's ability to move runners into scoring position via stolen base, which they rank 13th in the League in doing, having an advantage in getting more opportunities to produce runs.....
Webb this year has given up 33 Walks and this ranks him 2nd worst in the NL.....Also, on the road is where Webb struggles with his control....In his road games this year he has allowed these walk numbers: 4 walks, 5, 4, 1, 3, and 5 walks in his last game......Not Good!....He has though shown to be solid at times, but his lack of control has led to many more poor showing outweighing any good performances....Webb also is not one who seems to have the ability to bounce back the next game, following a bad one....This is clearly evident in his record where it shows that he suffers multiple losses before he gets another win.....Not Good!
Lima for LA is primarily a reliever, but he will get another shot at starting again tonight.....I usually don't follow relievers starting, because I feel that it is a whole new animal in itself.....But seeing as Lima has already made 3 starts this year and it has led his team to a 2-1 record when he started, gives me a little confidence in him taking the hill today.....I feel he will be able to do enough vs Zona's struggling Offense, until he gets some help from Mr Gagne to close it out.....
Some stats working against Zona in this one...
-Zona is ranked 3rd to last in OBP.
-Zona is 5th to last in the League in hitting %.
-Zona is ONLY hitting RHP's .214......LA hitting RHP's .271 at home vs them.
-Zona 3-7 in their last 10 games....Note: The Big Unit is responsible for getting 2 of them wins....
Now I know that the Dodger's are as well in a slump right now, but I feel that they will have an advantage against Webb, because of his lack of control.....The Dodger's should get guys on base via walks, if they continue to struggle at the plate....Overall though, between the two teams, the Dodger's are a better hitting squad and have a better OBP than the DBack's, in addition to being at home and coming off a lost to Zona last night, gives them additional edges tonight....Their BP of late has also been playing better than Zona's is and this another important edge before Mr Gagne steps in....I see the Dodger's, with the help from Webb, doing enough to bounce back with a much needed win tonight.....Go Dodger's!
*This was another perfectly capped out Big Game Play Winner!......Here is Arizona's losing Pitcher B Webb's final stats: he went 4 innings, allowed 8 hits, 4 ERs, gave up 2 Walks, got 4 K's, and gave up 1 HR.....End result, LA wins EZ 10-0.
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06-13-2004, 10:34 PM
"BIG GAME PLAY"--TOTAL'S GAME OF THE MONTH on:
KC/METS UNDER 9 -120 (EZ WINNER)
-Ok , I am not a really big Over/Unders capper, but when I saw this number put out on the KC/Mets game.....I had to jump all over it immediately.....This number is way to high for this pitching matchups and for these two Offensively struggling teams....Below is a few stats and trends to why I feel this is a Solid play on the UNDER....
These two pitchers are very Solid as they come....Glavine for the Mets is having a Superb year w/ a record of 6-3 and has a solid 2.21 ERA.......His opponent in KC's Greinke is an up and coming young star who is also pitching superbly on the hill so far this year.....In his first 4 starts in the Majors this year, he has posted a 1-1 record, but with a 1.73 ERA....AWESOME!....
Last year Greinke was named the Minors Best Player winning Player of the Year honors......This year, he is definately showing that he belongs in the Majors and he will be a force to be reckoned with in games, not years to come.....
Greinke's last start vs Montreal ended in a dominant win for this youngster as he allowed ONLY 3 hits, NO RUNS, got 5 K's, and allowed no Walks, in 7 innings.....Solid!....In his 3 previous games, he also pitched solidly...Vs Detriot, the #1 hitting % team, #1 team in total hits, and #4 ranked team in runs scored, he held them to 6 hits and just 2 runs.....Vs the Twins(AL Central Leader), the #17 ranked hitting % team, #14 in total hits, and #17 ranked team in runs scored, he held them to 7 hits and ONLY 1 run.....Vs the A's(AL West Leader), the #10 ranked hitting % team, #3 in total hits, and #10 ranked team in runs scored, he held them to just 5 hits and just 2 runs....OUTSTANDING!......In total vs these solid teams, Greinke's pitched 19 innings, giving up ONLY 5 runs....
Glavine for the Mets is the veteran and former CY Young Award Winner, who isnt showing any signs of an aging veteran.....He as well has been very dominant to opposing batters this year as his ERA of 2.21 in 13 starts can atest to.....This year, he also has 3 shutout games going 2-1......He has also posted two 1 run games, four 2 run games, two 3 run games, and just has two 4 run games.....Glavine this year has not had any games that he has given up more than 4 runs, and no games that he has gone less than 6 innings on the hill.....SOLID!
Ok, that should cover the first part (the pitchers), in backing this Under play.....Now here are the stats of both teams Offenses which back the Under play as well.....The Mets are ranked 2nd to last in the League in hitting % at .247 overall.....KC is ranked 4th to last in the League in hitting % at .260 overall....The Mets ranks 4th to last in the League in run production this year.....KC also is poor, ranking 5th to last in the League in run production on the year....In total hits overall on the year, the Mets rank 5th to last, but KC is worst ranking 4th to last in the League in total hits overall.....Lastly, the Mets are 5th to last in OBP in the League and the Royals are 4th to last in OBP.....Based on these poor Offensive stats for both teams, the Under looks like the way to go...
Other stats, trends, and information backing the Under play:
-The Mets are currently in their worst losing streak of the season...
-Glavine's approach(gameplan) to getting wins in each start is to allow 3 runs or less.....So far on the year, Glavine has not allowed more than 4 runs...
-In the 17 games between the two pitchers(Glavine & Greinke) they have given up just 8 HRs.
-Only 3 out of 13 games which Glavine started has ended with a run total over 9....2 out of 13 games ended in 9 runs.....and 8 out of 13 games ended Under 9 runs....
-In Glavine's 8 starts on the road, 6 of them ended Under 9 runs.....1 game over 9 runs, and 1 game ended with 9 runs scored....
-Glavine as a Favorite this season has a 1.55 ERA.
-Greinke as a Home Dog this year has an 1.29 ERA.
-The UNDER is 12-5-1 in the Mets last 18 games overall....
-The UNDER is 3-0 in Greinke's last 3 starts...
-The UNDER is 19-7-3 in KC's last 29 games overall....
-KC only hitting LHP's .236 in their last 10 games.....Mets only hitting RHP's .252 in their last 10 games overall, and .241 on the road vs them.
In conclusion, with both teams struggling on Offense at the plate, and both with their best pitchers on the hill today, it points all in the direction of a very tight and very low scoring game between the two....Runs in this one should definately be hard to come by.....Play the UNDER as a BIG GAME PLAY!
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06-22-2004, 08:12 AM
"BIG GAME PLAY"--COLLEGE WORLD SERIES PLAY on:
South Carolina -130 (EZ 15-4 WINNER)
-The Gamecocks are the SEC Champs with a record of 50-15, and ranks 3rd in the Nation overall.....This Gamecock team is coming off of a shutout loss to the Titans of Fullerton State, who is led by the All-American Catcher and local Hawaiian product, Kirk Suzuki.....and oh yeah, that so-so pitcher Jason Windsor....lol..(jk)....Them two proved to be a deadly balanced combination that totally shut down this potent Offense of the Gamecocks on Saturday...
But, today's game vs LSU is a totally different story altogether....The Gamecocks as I mentioned, is a really potent Offensive team at the plate....In fact, this Gamecock team is loaded with Talent as 7 players on the rooster has been taken in the First 12 rounds of this years MLB Draft....
This Gamecock Offense can stroke the ball Long BIG TIME....They field the most potent lineup in the CWS and lead the Nation with 102 HRs, and also have 4 players in the lineup with at least 14 HRs and 50 RBI's...The Gamecocks before Saturdays shutout, have been averaging 7 runs a game.....OUTSTANDING!
The Gamecocks though does not only rely on its Offense to win games for them.....Nope, this Gamecock team is also a very solid balanced team at the plate and on the hill.....In fact, besides their potent Offense, SC brings to this years World Series Tournament probably the Best 4 starting Pitchers....This past Saturday, we got to see one of them in Campbell who was drafted in the first round by KC....Today they more than likely will send the No. 2 Starter Aaron Rawls to the hill, who was a strikeout artist on the mound this year....Or we might see the No. 3 Starting Pitcher in Billy Buckner, who also posted solid numbers and it got him drafted in the second round this year.....Whichever of them start today won't matter for me, as both of them are equally solid....In fact here are their numbers......
SP -- Aaron Rawl (12-4, 4.29 ERA with 93 strikeouts and 16 walks in 115 innings)
SP -- Billy Buckner (6-2, 3.16 ERA)...I dont have more of Buckners numbers because of time out with illness, but like I mentioned, he was selected in the 2nd Rd of the Draft...
Helping to provide the Gamecocks with even more balance today, is their nasty ass bullpen led by the Nation's leader in Saves, Chad Blackwell...Here is Chad's numbers on the year...
RP -- Chad Blackwell (4-3, 2.79 ERA with 19 saves, 74 strikeouts and 13 walks in 58 innings)...Solid!
-LSU also possesses a very potent Offense as well....and they like SC has 7 players in the lineup whose batting average is over .300...In fact, the Tigers have a .333 team batting average and that ties them with Fullerton for Tops in the CWS...Still, LSU's weakness is not at the plate, but at the hill where their pitchers are average and many times inconsistant...Also another weakness for them, and another advantage for the Gamecocks today is that the Tiger's bullpen lacks any depth in order to confidently protect a lead or hold off surging Offenses, as evident with their lack of support in the Miami game after starter Bumstead was pulled early....Because of this lack of quality depth in the BP for LSU, they have to leave their average starters in the game much longer than they should...Not good, against an Offensive power like the Gamecocks....
In Saturday's game vs the Hurricanes of Miami, Bumstead who started for LSU's Ace Lane Mestepey, ONLY lasted 2 innings, giving up 5 runs and 8 hits....The reserve pitchers were not able to hold off Miami and gave up 4 more runs leading to a 9-5 loss, after leading twice early 3-0 and 5-3....Not good!....Today, I am not sure who will take the hill for LSU, as Starter Lane Mestepey who was replaced by Bumstead on Saturday, may still be unable to go due to a shoulder injury he suffered while celebrating in a Tiger pileup following their Super Regional Game and win last week....LSU's Coach Laval, was stated as saying that Bumstead might be available for Monday's games.....If so, he wont find it any easier at all facing this potent Lineup that the Gamecocks will let lose on him.....Miami was able to get two long jacks off of the Tigers pitchers....Today definately doesnt look good for whomever pitches for the Tigers, as again, the Gamecocks are the Best in the Land with 102 HRs on the year....Oh Boy!
These are the numbers for the LSU Tigers Starting Pitchers:
SP -- Nate Bumstead (10-3, 3.59 ERA)
SP -- Lane Mestepey (7-3, 3.43)
SP -- Justin Meier (6-2, 3.75)
RP -- Jason Determann (6-4, 3.93, one save)
*In conclusion, I feel that better balance today will be the Key to getting the win for the Gamecocks over the Tigers....Gamecocks have the advantage on the mound, at the plate, and in the Pen....LSU can only match them on Offense....But as evident from LSU's lost to Miami on Saturday, Offense without a solid defense starting with the guy on the hill is not enough, especially against a fully loaded talented team like the Gamecocks possess...Another advantage for the Gamecocks today, and one which many may overlook, is the fact that the Gamecocks also have the most experience in this tournament, playing more games in the last two years then any other team in this field....SC's Tournament experience, SC's depth on the hill, SC's explosiveness at the plate, and SC's leadership behind the plate from their Stud Catcher, and #1 draft pick of the Oakland A's, Landon Powell, should prove to be to much for the scrappy Tigers from LSU....Take the Gamecocks as a BIG GAME PLAY!
*PROBABLE STARTING LINEUPS:
-South Carolina Gamecocks:
SS -- Steven Tolleson (.320 AVG, 3 HR, 23 RBI)
3B -- Bryan Triplett (.274, 7, 35)
1B -- Steve Pearce (.327, 20, 65)
C -- Landon Powell (.332, 19, 65)
2B -- Kevin Melillo (.304, 9, 35)
RF -- Brendan Winn (.310, 18, 64)
LF -- Michael Campbell (.315, 14, 50)
DH -- Ryan Mahoney (.257, 2, 14)
CF -- Davy Gregg (.322, 0, 24)
SP -- Matt Campbell (10-4, 2.88 ERA)
SP -- Aaron Rawl (12-4, 4.29)
SP -- Billy Buckner (6-2, 3.16)
RP -- Chad Blackwell (4-3, 2.79, 19 saves)
LSU Tigers:-
CF -- J.C. Holt (.390 AVG, 6 HR, 51 RBI)
LF -- Ryan Patterson (.340, 14, 64)
C -- Matt Liuzza (.330, 9, 45)
RF -- Jon Zeringue (.387, 12, 55)
DH -- Nick Stavinoha (.335, 8, 42)
3B -- Clay Harris (.295, 7, 51)
2B -- Ivan Naccarata (.277, 5, 33)
1B -- Will Harris (.329, 7, 39)
SS -- Blake Gill (.344, 5, 41)
SP -- Nate Bumstead (10-3, 3.59 ERA)
SP -- Lane Mestepey (7-3, 3.43)
SP -- Justin Meier (6-2, 3.75)
RP -- Jason Determann (6-4, 3.93, one save)
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06-29-2004, 03:17 AM
"BIG GAME PLAY-UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on:
Tampa Bay D-Rays +114 (EZ 10-2 BLOWOUT WINNER!)
-When your Hot your Hot.....and when your not, your not.....Well this Tampa Bay squad is freakin Smoking Hot....And although they lost last night to Florida, they did win the series vs the Defending World Champions.....Plus, last night they were facing a Smoking Hot Pitcher in Pavano who btw has a Smokin Hot Girl(Milano) who is simply lighting his Fire Big Time....TB faced a monster on the hill last night, who is on a roll, but that lost I feel will do more for this TB squad in todays game and play right into the sikee needed to get this one Big Time...
Today, TB faces off against the Toronto BJays and their Ace and last years Cy Young Award Winner Roy Halladay....I like TB today to get a solid win, and back to their winning ways.....Heres what and why, I like them....
TB's Zambrano and BJay's Halladay faced off in the Skydome on June 23 , with the BJays getting the win by a low score of 2-1, but a No Decision for both Zambrano and Halladay....In that game, both pitchers had excellent days with both giving up just one run each.....Halladay went went 8 innings allowing just 5 hits and getting 8 K's.....Zambrano lasted 7 innings in that one while ONLY giving up 4 hits total...Ok that was in Toronto and now this one is in Tampa, and things should work in favor of the D-Rays here....
One of those things that I see working in TB's favor is the fact that Halladay, though a solid pitcher, has not fared well on the road this year....posting a poor 1-4 road record with a 4.00 ERA to boot.....In his last 3 road games, he has given up 20 hits, 15 runs (5 runs in each game), 10 walks, in just a little over 17 innings on the hill....Not Good!
Zambrano, on the other hand, is an animal at home posting a Solid 6-1 record at home this year with an ERA of 3.31.....In his last 3 starts at home, he went 3-0 and allowed ONLY 10 hits, ONLY 2 runs, in just a little over 19 innings on the hill.....OUTSTANDING!....Based on these figures and performances, it clear to see that Zambrano has the edge at home over Halladay on the road....
Now, another advantage that I want to mention which favors TB today is the fact that Halladay though he has one of the lower ERA's in the AL, he also gives up a high amount of hits as well.....In fact, Halladay on the year has pitched a total of 96 innings and have given up 94 hits so far....On the road this total is 47 innings and 46 hits given up....
Zambrano, on the other hand, is the AL's leader in Walks given up....Still, he makes up for this by ranking 4th in the League in Strike Outs with 84 K's...and as far as giving up hits, Zambrano overall this year in 90 innings on the hill, has ONLY given up 76 hits....At home he gave up just 35 hits in a little over 47 innings on the hill....SOLID!
So eventhough, Zambrano gives up a lot of walks, the fact that he gets a hell of a lot of K's and gives up very little in hits, plus the fact that the BJays are in the lower half of the League in hitting and also rank 2nd to last in SB w/ only 22 successful attempts this year, gives me nothing so much to worry about with his high tendency to allow walks....His ability to control hitters at the plate and the BJays inability to take advantage of his weakness while at the plate and on base gives TB and Zambrano an advantage here...
Next, this situation or asset is one that is vastly overlooked and very undervalued by many handicappers but not me...This asset, is the ability of a team to move runners on base via Stolen Bases....This can be a very effective weapon for teams with a lot of speed like TB has, and as well for teams who is not a power hitting team like the DRays....This type of aggressive base running get more players on base into scoring position, and thus allowing teams like TB more opportunities to set them up to score more runs, or at least an opportunity to get runs period....Having the ability to play this type of aggressive ball allows TB to not have to fully depend on getting a lot of hits from its guys at the plate, in order to move runners.....Also, having this ability to steal a lot, helps to put opposing pitchers on the defensive and working on the hill double time....Instead of having to worry about the guy at the plate, they must now also worry about the guy on the base....This in effect can help out the hitter at the plate by allowing him to get more hittable or bad pitches which would help teams who are especially struggling at the plate....So far this year, TB has used this to their advantage many times and allows them to always be a threat to opposing teams when they have someone on base....TB in this very undervalued catergory is ranked 3rd Best in the League in Stolen Bases with 62 on the year...
How is this going to help get a win for TB....Well, I cant guarantee having the ability to steal second or third for that matter will get a team a win, but it will help them in giving them more opportunities to get runs in off of hits and maybe even possible throwing errors, instead of primarily depending on the guy at the plate to bring me in....The more opportunities a team gets to score, the more chances they have to win...This is Lou Piniella ball, and he is not just a master of motivation, but a master at playing aggressive ball and always keeping the pressure on their opponents at all times...
With this style of ball playing by TB and their ability to exploit it when they are on base....and the fact that Halladay has a tendency to give up a lot of hits allowing base runners to get on base....I have to say that one, it will play right into the hands of this TB Offense, and Two it will allow them more opportunities to score especially because Halladay is still one of the Best on the hill....I like it also that Halladay struggles on the road as well, and today in this ballpark, it will be very hostile place for him to have to pitch in.....
*Other stats, insights, and info that favor Tampa Bay in this one:
-Toronto is just 2-6 in their last 8 games on the road...
-Toronto is 1-4 in Halladay's last 5 games on the road...
-TB is 6-1 in Zambrano's last 7 starts...
-TB is 15-2 in their last 17 overall...
-Halladay in his last 3 starts has an ERA of 4.00...
-Zambrano in his last 3 starts has an ERA of 2.21...
-TB's BP is also pitching well...In their last 3 games they have a combined ERA of 3.49 in 59 innings...
-Toronto's BP combined in their last 3 games has a ERA of 6.52 in ONLY 29 innings...
-TB will have a lot of motivation on their side today as they will be facing Halladay, and looking to get Revenge, as he and Toronto ended their 12 game win streak....
-Tampa's house will be Rockin tonight and energies and motivations will be high as they welcome last years Cy Young Winner...and look for payback...
-TB should be fully focused after suffering a loss yesterday to Florida....But taking the series from the Defending World Champs should do a lot to further their confidence...
-TB is at home, while Toronto had a long trip to Florida....
-TB should be motivated to get back above .500 after they became the first team in Major League history to get above .500 after being below it by 18 games...I am thinking that they want to show it was no fluke...
-Toronto will be without its Top 3 hitters again in the lineup...in Carlos Delgado, Vernon Wells, and Frank Catalanotto...
-TB's first baseman Tino Martinez is expected to return to the lineup today...and this is very good news for TB..as he is batting .281 and also leads the DRays in HR's with 12 on the year...
-Lastly, Toronto has lost 13 of 24 games this month...
-Zambrano is the Yankee Killer as he beat the Evil Empire Twice this year...
**Ok Gang.....This was another perfectly capped out BIG GAME PLAY-WINNER...Like I have always mentioned, when it comes to my BIG GAME PLAYS in All Major Sports Combined, they are simply Second to None....The proof of this is in the pudding....This is just another example of another Huge BIG GAME PLAY-EZ WINNER....Hope you All got some of this.....Stay tuned for more BIG GAME PLAY-WINNERS on the horizon.....Lets get more, and LETS GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC.
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