NFL Playoffs Info

[Spearit]

Many ask if Denver will win against the Patriots - lets be open minded and see some facts on this game.

1) Pats haven't lost to the same team twice in a season in five years.

2) Broncos haven't won a playoff game since John Elway won SB 33 in 1999 (0-3, outscored 111-37).

3) Jake Plummer has won one playoff game in nine years.

4)Tom Brady have won an NFL-record 10 straight playoff games.

5)Patriots have not lost a playoff game since 1999.

6)Bill Belichick is 11-1 in the postseason as a head coach (the best record in NFL history).

7) Breathable oxygen is 17% less plentiful at Denver's Mile High Stadium.

8) Belichick's Patriots have met Shanahan's Broncos five times since both men were named coach of their respective teams. The Pats are 2-3 in those matchups.

9) Denver 8-0 at home this year.
Since the start of the 2001 season, the Broncos are the only team in the league that has played the Patriots at least four times and still have a winning record. 3-1 .750

10) Under Belichick, the Patriots have rushed for at least 100 yards in seven of their 10 postseason games.

10) Jake Plummer had his best passer rating this season against the Patriots (134.4), finishing 17 of 24 for 262 yards and two touchdowns

11) Since surrendering more than 100 rushing yards in six of their first eight games, the Patriots have surrendered at least 100 only twice in the past nine.

12) Twenty-seven times, in 10 playoff games, New England's opponents have coughed up the football.

13) The Broncos gave away the ball a franchise-low 16 times this season, ranking first in the league.

What do you think?

[Spearit]

Now lets see where the NFL Playoffs Smart Money is going.

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the public will be heavily on one side. The amount of “sharp money” buying back the shaded lines is dwarfed by “public money”.

We anticipate New England and Carolina will be the most “lopsided-bet” game of the weekend. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from six online sportsbooks.




NFL Playoff Edition – Games to Watch

Washington Redskins vs Seattle Seahawks
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The line managers at Oasis, 5Dimes, and Bowmans reported taking heavy two-way “Sharp” money. The line opened at Seattle -9 and pretty much stayed put all week. Washington is receiving a good amount of the early “Public” action. SportsInsights.com analysis is showing 60% of bets in this match-up are coming in on Washington. Simon Noble line manager at Pinnacle also reports, “We’ve written twice as many wagers on them (Washington) as on Seattle.” The “Sharps” also appear to be divided on this game. Bowmans reported taking a lot of early Seattle “Sharp” action at -8.5 and -9, causing them to move to -9.5 -115 on Thursday. 5Dimes and Oasis both reported taking two way “Sharp” action.

I like Seattle playing at home after a bye week. Let’s face it. The Redskins were lucky to walk away with a win against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay pretty much handed them the game. I look for Seattle to pound Washington early and often on both sides of the ball.

Seattle -9.5

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos
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New England looked impressive against Jacksonville as they begin their march for a third straight Super Bowl. Tom Brady now stands alone in the record books as he looks to improve on his 10-0 record in the playoffs. New England is receiving the most lopsided “Public” action of any game this weekend. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that New England is getting over 72% of the bets placed in this match up.

Denver is coming off a well-earned bye week. How important is a bye week? Noble Simone of Pinnacles stated, “Since 1990, home teams off a bye week in the playoffs are an impressive 40-10.” I’d say it’s important.

All the sportsbooks opened up at Denver -3 and have received a lot of “Public” action on New England +3. So far the “Sharp” money has been slightly on Denver -3. A lot of the sportsbooks are reporting heavy point buying and teasing of this game. If this game lands on Denver winning by 3pts, look for the sportsbooks to pay out winners on both sides.

Denver will be well rested and playing in front of a juiced-up crowd. They beat the Patriots once, why not again?

Denver -3

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts
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The line opened at either -9.5 or -10 at most sportsbooks. The “Public” appears to be siding with Pittsburgh, who is receiving a little over 55% of the bets, but overall the “Public” and “Sharp” opinion on this game has been split. Indy hasn’t played a meaningful game in weeks, while Pittsburgh benefited from an early injury to Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer. I believe Indy will be prepared and ready to play this weekend. They will be out to prove they are Super Bowl material.

Indianapolis -9

Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears
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This game is a mirror image of the New England vs Denver game. The line opened at Chicago -3 and has seen a lot of two way “Sharp” action, most buying off +3. Similar to the Denver game, the “Public” is all over the visiting underdog. SI analysis shows that over 67% of the bets placed on this match-up have come in on Carolina.

Like the Denver game, if Chicago wins by 3 points the sportsbook will be paying out on both sides. I think this will be an exciting defensive battle, but I believe Carolina’s ability to actually generate offense will prove the difference.

Carolina +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for the Playoff Edition of Games to Watch.

Games to Watch - Playoff Edition (1-3)
Seattle -9.5
Denver -3
Indianapolis -9
Carolina +3

[Spearit]

Recap:
Divisional Playoff Round

The Divisional Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the most lopsided scores as the teams that have earned the right to rest through the Wildcard round have owned their visiting foes. In fact, the average margin of victory in this round has been over 15 PPG.
* The home team has been most dominant in winning games in the Divisional Playoff round, with a SU record of 41-11. Its ATS mark of 28-22 (56%) slightly trails the Wildcard Round though.
* Discounting the rare four road covers of the 2004 Divisional Playoff Weekend, Home teams are a stellar 21-3 SU & 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in this round
* Favorites in the Divisional Round own an ATS mark of 26-21 (55.3%) since ’93.
* Favorites of more than a TD are 20-3 SU & 15-7-1 ATS (68.1%) in the Divisional Round since ’93!
* There has been only one home underdog in the last 13 years of Divisional Round play, and that was in ’97 when host Carolina upended Dallas 26-17 as a 3-point dog.
* The last six times that a 6th seed has advanced to the Divisional round, it has been blown out. The average score of these games was 39-14, and the home team was 6-0 SU & ATS.

[jcindaville]

wow spearit, that is a lot of info. thank you

[Spearit]

Weather Conditions and Playoffs
Good news for the Carolina Panthers: the long-range forecast for Sunday in Chicago is an unseasonably warm 43 degrees, about the same temperature they handled in the Meadowlands.

Washington could get a break, too -- no rain is forecast for Seattle on Saturday, although anyone familiar with the Pacific Northwest at this time of year knows that can change in an instant.

In fact, the unhappiest visitor may be New England: it could have been cold, windy and snowy in Denver, providing the Patriots with that nice, fuzzy Foxborough feeling. Instead, it's supposed to be in the 50s when the Patriots play the Broncos on Saturday.

In the first round, playoff experience won, especially experience at quarterback. Most notable: Jake Delhomme over Eli Manning and Tom Brady over a limping Byron Leftwich.

That's likely to change this week, even in a season where the first week did nothing to disprove the perception that the run for the Super Bowl is wide open, especially in the NFC. Only one home team, New England, won in the first round, something not likely to happen in the second.

The biggest factor in the first week was experience.

This week it could be the weather.

There wasn't much last weekend and if those long-range forecasts are accurate, there may not be much in week two.

In fact, the biggest weather advantage in the second round may be where there is none: inside Indianapolis' RCA Dome, where the Colts are built for the fast indoor track and the Steelers aren't: they lost there 26-7 on Nov. 28. No wonder the early line makes Indianapolis a favorite by nine points.

The networks like weather, so the NFL likes it, too -- in the last few seasons, it has scheduled night games in places like Foxborough and Green Bay, hoping to get a little ice and snow into the picture or at least shots of players breathing cold air. Who can forget the "tuck rule" game four years ago that started the Patriots on their run of three titles in four years -- mythology has it being played in a blizzard, although for New Englanders, it was just a run-of-the-mill snowstorm.

Chicago has had some classic weather games, two in particular.

One was the "Fog Bowl, " a 20-12 win by the Bears over Philadelphia in 1988 at just this stage of the playoffs -- "the best game I've never seen," one fan called it. The fog rolled in off Lake Michigan just before halftime. The only way to see the second half was on monitors after television cameras were stationed on the sideline.

And even from there, the game was almost unwatchable.

"I could hardly see across the field, and I'm sure they couldn't, either," Eagles coach Buddy Ryan said. "They'd run a play, and I didn't know who had the ball or what was going on."

That was a fairly warm day in Chicago.

It wasn't warm on Jan. 5, 1986, when the New York Giants played a second-round game against another Chicago team with a dominant defense -- that one went on to win the Super Bowl in dominant fashion. The wind at Soldier Field howled so wildly that day that it blew the ball away from Giants punter Sean Landeta's foot and he whiffed, looking on in bewilderment as Chicago's Shaun Gayle picked it up and returned it for a touchdown.

There are others, even going back to the "Sneaker Game" at New York's Polo Grounds in 1934 when the late Wellington Mara, then 18, was dispatched at halftime for sneakers to overcome icy conditions. The players donned them, overcame a 10-3 deficit and beat the Bears 30-13 for the NFL title.

There was, of course, the "Ice Bowl" in Green Bay, won by the Packers over the Cowboys 21-17 for the 1967 NFL championship in minus-13 temperatures and minus-48 wind chill.

And, more recently, the 1981 AFC title game, played in a wind chill of 59 below in Cincinnati on Jan. 9, 1982. Warm-weather San Diego never had a chance: the Cincinnati offensive linemen came out with no covering on their arms to intimidate the Chargers, Dan Fouts' passes fell like lumps of coal and the Bengals beat them 27-7 to go on to the Super Bowl.

That Super Bowl was in Detroit that year, just as it is this year, and Cincinnati lost to the 49ers -- the game was indoors, not out.

That's the weather factor.

There's unlikely to be much this week and that's a shame.

[Spearit]

Recap:
There are three key statistical angles that winning playoff teams generally possess: more rushing yards, more yards per pass attempt, and fewer turnovers in that game.

The turnovers have proven to be the most crucial of these factors, as teams that have turned the ball over fewer times in a playoff game are an incredible 91-15-3 ATS (85.8%). Similarly, teams that rush for more yards in a playoff game are 97-27-6 ATS (78.2%).

Naturally one could argue that the team that is ahead will run the ball more, but still it is key to know which team can better control the line of scrimmage. Finally, teams that average more yards per pass attempt, or those that create more big plays through the air, have compiled a mark of 90-34-6 ATS in playoff games. Big plays via the passing game give teams leads, which in turn allow them to run the ball more and avoid turnovers.

When you combine the factors and find teams that have edges in all three key statistical aspects, the records go to 60-2 SU & 56-5-1 ATS (91.8%). In fact, home teams that have enjoyed edges in all three have a perfect record of 45-0 since 1993 in the playoffs.

[Spearit]

Just a nice tease to offer for tomorrows games. Chicago's vaulted defense mixed with Carolina's decent defense. Under sounds good. Pitt and Indy- 24-21 seems to be the lowest it will go.

2 Team Teaser
(305) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. (306) Indianapolis Colts Over 41
(307) Carolina Panthers vs. (308) Chicago Bears Under 37
(Teased 6.5 points)

[Spearit]

After careful consideration and speculation and indigestion and constipation- I have made my picks early to ease my mind. 2 dogs and 2 favs. Now I can sit back and enjoy the games. $1000 - Sorry --Pitt, Redskins, Bears, and Bronco fans. These all cover.

Seattle Seahawks +4 ---------------------Win
New England Patriots +16 ------------------Win
Indianapolis Colts +3½
Carolina Panthers +16
(Teased 13.0 points)

This is my continued play for the day from yesterday. Plus see above for play today on totals. Pitt and Chicago are worthy opponents and I am lucky to have some space to maneuver- I hope its enough. I know Grossman from Florida and he is a very capable QB - he just walked up to the coach's doorstep and handed him a tape of his playing and was in. That shows he doesn't back down from a challenge and in my heart he wins today - but under 16 points. Defense rules. So 16 points should be okay. Also the Bus is in his last year and I love what Cowher said in the paper-

"I have so much appreciation for him- it seems like he's always been there. When the day comes that he's not there, there's going to be a void there because it seem's like he's always been there."

Not exactly the most articulate Coach in the league but he can coach. I look forward to the spit screens today in Indy.

It should be noted that Indy seems to find a way to falter at the most crucial of times-namely playoffs. Had I to do it over- I believe Pitt +a gazillion points (+22 1/2 may have been the better side of the bet.)

[PatrickB]

Good Luck today Spearit!! I love those picks buddy!! The bookies cleaned house lastnight with Denver!! Who would of thought NE would have 5 TO. I hope you have a great Sunday Buddy!!

[Spearit]

19-0 Post Division System
PLAY AGAINST ALL ROAD TEAMS IN THE SEMI FINAL ROUND THAT DEFEATED A DIVISION FOE IN THE WILD CARD ROUND.

After a heated and hated division Wild Card game, the Steelers are the team that fits the above scenario. All teams in this scenario have gone 0-19 straight up, and only 4-14-1 ATS since 1990. Its as if winning the the division wild card game took some steam or focus out of them in the next round.

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Bears/Panthers Total:

This is the lowest posted total for a playoff game. There have been 23 games where the posted over/under was less than 35 points and the OVER cashed in 16 of the 23 games, or 69.5%!

[phonepole]

Love the info.... I feel alot better about the 4-teamer! Good luck today Spear!

[Spiccoli]

19-0 Post Division System
PLAY AGAINST ALL ROAD TEAMS IN THE SEMI FINAL ROUND THAT DEFEATED A DIVISION FOE IN THE WILD CARD ROUND.

After a heated and hated division Wild Card game, the Steelers are the team that fits the above scenario. All teams in this scenario have gone 0-19 straight up, and only 4-14-1 ATS since 1990. Its as if winning the the division wild card game took some steam or focus out of them in the next round.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bears/Panthers Total:

This is the lowest posted total for a playoff game. There have been 23 games where the posted over/under was less than 35 points and the OVER cashed in 16 of the 23 games, or 69.5%!

Great Info, appreciate it.

But looks to me like it will be 1-19 on that Divisional stat. I predict Pitt will win by double digits. Indi has had too many distractions and really tailed off at the end of the season (truly a dumbass move for a team to "rest" players IMO...takes away ALL the momentum).

Pitt at Denver next week...Denver waltzes into the Super Bowl.

[Spearit]

OKAY 19-1 Now. Streaks were made to be broken- congrats to Pittsburg backers.

however, I may one of a few that won on Indy's comeback try.

Seattle Seahawks +4 ---------------------Win
New England Patriots +16 ------------------Win
Indianapolis Colts +3½ ---------------------Win
Carolina Panthers +16
(Teased 13.0 points)

[Spearit]

ready for next weeks battles.

Seattle Seahawks +4 ---------------------Win
New England Patriots +16 ------------------Win
Indianapolis Colts +3½ ---------------------Win
Carolina Panthers +16----------------------Win
(Teased 13.0 points)-----------------------------Winner

[Spearit]

Conference Championship Round Recap

Conference Championship weekend has historically produced the most competitive games of any playoff round, as the favorites hold just a 13-12 edge over the underdogs and the average score has been home team 22.5, road team 20.0. In addition, there have been eight upsets in this round, and road teams actually own a better winning percentage over the last eight seasons.
* The average line in the last 26 Conference Championship games has been home team favored by 5.6.
* In a stretch from 2000 through the later game in 2003, the underdog covered seven straight times, winning five of them.
* Since the Championship games of 1998, road teams actually hold a sizeable edge with a mark of 9-7 SU & 10-5-1 ATS.
* OVERs have been on a nice run over the past four years in the championship round, converting at a 5-2-1 clip (71.4%)
* Dougle digit favorites have really struggled in this round, going 4-2 SU but just 1-5 ATS (16.7%)!
* The greatest percentage of home underdog opportunities has presented itself on conference title game Sunday, with five in all. Unfortunately, those dogs are just 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS (25%).
* The last four 4th seeds (Buffalo ’93, Denver ’98, Tennessee ’00, Baltimore ’01) to advance to the AFC Championship are 3-0-1 ATS in that game, and have advanced to the Super Bowl each time.