Free NFL & College Picks + Fades

[Blackbeard]

Harmon Forecast NFL

Week 11 - Sunday, Nov. 20, 2005
*New England 27 New Orleans 17 -- Injuries and other roster decisions have decimated the Patriots defense. However, Tom Brady and the offense should be able to handle the Saints' poor defense.

*Dallas 21 Detroit 19 -- A team unsettled at quarterback usually has an inconsistent offense. That couldn't be more true with the Lions.

*Cleveland 16 Miami 14 -- The Dolphins haven't shown the ability to win on the road. Until they do that, they'll find themselves just short of making the playoffs. The Browns aren't much better, but they'll take advantage of the home field.

Carolina 27 *Chicago 17 -- The Bears defense, one of the league's best, might struggle against the Panthers, who have one of the league's top receivers in Steve Smith. He virtually has been unstoppable and is a potential MVP candidate.

*Atlanta 21 Tampa Bay 14 -- The Buccaneers offense has been more predictable with Chris Simms at quarterback. The Falcons' aggressive defense could go to an eight-man front to stop Cadillac Williams & Co.

Pittsburgh 27 *Baltimore 13 -- The Steelers have a terrific defensive unit that should limit the Ravens' ability to run the ball. Ben Roethlisberger is expected to return after missing two games following arthroscopic knee surgery.

Jacksonville 23 *Tennessee 17 -- Jacksonville's defense should prove to be too much for the Titans, who have been inconsistent on offense.

*Washington 24 Oakland 20 -- QB Mark Brunell has executed the Redskins' game plan efficiently. Look for him to do the same at home against the Raiders, who continue to make strides on offense.

*St. Louis 24 Arizona 17 -- The Rams are finally adjusting to a coaching change. The Cardinals might be a year or two away from climbing their way out of the NFC West cellar.

*NY Giants 28 Philadelphia 20 -- Eli Manning's maturation has made the Giants offense one of the league's most dangerous. The Terrell Owens controversy apparently is behind the Eagles -- but now they'll be without Donovan McNabb, too.

Seattle 24 *San Francisco 13 -- RB Shaun Alexander is powering Seattle's impressive offensive attack. The 49ers' struggles have been compounded by inconsistency at quarterback.

*San Diego 26 Buffalo 20 -- The Bills will have a difficult time against the Chargers, who have home-field advantage and too many offensive weapons.

*Denver 23 NY Jets 14 -- Broncos QB Jake Plummer is having an MVP-type season. He really has stepped up his game and he's supported by a solid running attack.

Indianapolis 26 *Cincinnati 20 -- The Colts now have a solid defense to go along with the Peyton Manning-led offense. The Bengals are much better this season, but they're still not in Indy's class.

Kansas City 24 *Houston 17 -- The Chiefs will depend primarily on Larry Johnson after losing Priest Holmes to a back injury. The Texans are making tiny strides but remain one of the league's least productive teams on offense.

Week 11 - Monday, Nov. 21, 2005
*Green Bay 26 Minnesota 20 -- These are two strugglings teams that were used to being the class of their division. Favre has had some pretty big nights on Monday night.

[Blackbeard]

SI.COM

1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Arizona (2-7) at St. Louis (4-5)
Typical week for the Cards. They get behind 24-6 (two Neil Rackers field goals), Kurt Warner throws for 332 and they leave the stadium saying: Can anyone on this team play defense.
St. Louis 31, Arizona 20

1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Detroit (4-5) at Dallas (6-3)
The Lions' Kevin Jones is rushing for 51 yards a game. I didn't see that coming. Blame the Detroit quarterbacks all you want, but that running game has been far from hungry.
Dallas 19, Detroit 14

1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Philadelphia (4-5) at New York (6-3)
Tough road for Mike McMahon at the Meadowlands, not far from where he used to stink at Rutgers. Giants D hasn't allowed a touchdown in 13 quarters.
New York Giants 24, Philadelphia 10

1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Oakland (3-6) at Washington (5-4)
Upset of the Week. No, not the Raider win. The upset is the Raiders don't complain about the refs after the game.
Oakland 20, Washington 13

1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Carolina (7-2) at Chicago (6-3)
The Bears have a two-game lead in the NFC North and the best team they've beaten is 4-5. Meanwhile, the Panthers ought to be re-named the Carolina Chameleons, because they beat you a different way every week. Loved Chicago's D, but how's this for defense: Panthers have scored 40 points off turnovers over the last two weeks.
Carolina 16, Chicago 9

1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Miami (3-6) at Cleveland (3-6)
After the game, Romeo Crennel walks off the field at Cleveland Browns Stadium to chants of "We want Frye! We want Frye!" And he thinks: Maybe it's time we play the kid. Charlie Frye, that is. Third-round pick from Akron
Miami 16, Cleveland 6

1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Tampa Bay (6-3) at Atlanta (6-3)
There will more fights than touchdowns in this game, as there should be in this vastly underrated rivalry. I went to this game last year and the hitting should not be condoned in a lawful society. Good luck, Chris Simms. Stay healthy.
Atlanta 17, Tampa Bay 13

1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup New Orleans (2-7) at New England (5-4)
"Tom Brady," Ron Wolf told me the other day, "is the definition of 'franchise quarterback.' What a football player."
New England 20, New Orleans 13

1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Jacksonville (6-3) at Tennessee (2-7)
AFC Wild Card playoff game, Jan. 8: Jacksonville (11-5) at New England (9-7). Pats get the home game because division winners always get the higher seed.
Jacksonville 21, Tennessee 10

1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Pittsburgh (7-2) at Baltimore (2-7)
I know this is a trap game for Pittsburgh, and I know no one out there trusts Tommy Maddox. But quite frankly (he said, stealing Stephen A. Smith's patented line), I would pick the Steelers if Stoney Case or Spergon Wynn were quarterbacking.
Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 13

4:05 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Seattle (7-2) at San Francisco (2-7)
Mike Holmgren looks around before the game and thinks to himself: This is where I thought I wanted to coach? Sheesh. Glad I got rescued from this.
Seattle 19, San Francisco 0

4:15 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Indianapolis (9-0) at Cincinnati (7-2)
Football's a show-me game. A month ago, I went to Cincinnati to see the new, improved and feisty Bengals. I saw a defense without a backbone and a Steelers rout. I'd love to believe the Bengals are as good as the Esiason-Collinsworth version, but I'm not buying it yet. I've got to see it first.
Indianapolis 31, Cincinnati 21

4:15 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup New York (2-7) at Denver (7-2)
First class or coach to Kansas City, Mr. Edwards?
Denver 44, New York Jets 6

4:15 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Buffalo (4-5) at San Diego (5-4)
Laura King will be in Qualcomm for this one, LaDainian. I promised her you'd put on a show. Please don't let me down. And by the way, would you mind stopping by her tailgate in the parking lot, just outside Gate D, before the game?
San Diego 24, Buffalo 17

8:30 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Kansas City (5-4) at Houston (1-8)
Midway through the third quarter, Texans trail 23-3. In the owners box, former president George Bush turns to Bob McNair and says: "I know he's a little wacky, but Mike Martz could really work well with David Carr next year. Maybe he should be your next coach."
Kansas City 30, Houston 10

9 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Minnesota (4-5) at Green Bay (2-7)
John Madden flies into orbit, and not about Brett Favre. He loves Samkon Gado. Samkon Gado this, Samkon Gado that. After a while, we think he just likes saying Samkon Gado's name. Samkon Gado, Samkon Gado, Samkon Gado. Samkon Gado's rushing line: 27 carries, 157 yards. A star is born for Madden 2007.
Green Bay 36, Minnesota 13
Season Total Last week: 10-4 Overall: 83-59

[Blackbeard]

sporting news/Vinnie Iyer

Indianapolis at Cincinnati. The Colts are considerably different from last season, and that's a good thing, because they're considerably better than they were last season. Obviously, defenses dropping everyone back and allowing themselves to be gashed by Edgerrin James isn't working, as it's also giving Peyton Manning the same looks to exploit every week.

There aren't many ways to beat the Colts, but the better way is to take away James and hold your breath against Manning. At least with the passing game, there can be errant throws, tipped passes, bad routes, little mistakes, some things that lead to incompletions and stalled drives. Expect Marvin Lewis to have his young, energized, home-standing, well-rested Bengals play that way in being aggressive and physical in coverage, so that when that rare opportunity for a takeaway against Manning happens, they take advantage of it.

In addition, unlike many teams that face the Colts, the Bengals can move the ball on their defense. Carson Palmer may have a Manning-like future ahead of him, and they have talented receivers led by Chad Johnson and a deep backfield with Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry. Expect a ball-control approach from Lewis, with an eye on consuming the clock and keeping Manning off the field.

So there it is: my reasonable reasoning for an upset. The Bengals have some experience knocking off 9-0 teams in Cincy, having done so two years ago against Kansas City. They'll do it again here, causing some corks to pop somewhere in South Florida. Bengals 28, Colts 27.

NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay at Atlanta. For the second consecutive week, Bucs southpaw quarterback Chris Simms draws a mobile lefthanded counterpart. But Michael Vick poses a whole different kind of athletic threat than Mark Brunell, and Simms won't have the same kind of success he had last week at home against Brunell's Redskins as he will this week on the road against the Falcons' fast, aggressive defense.

Vick's playmaking and leadership savvy over Simms will be seen, as the former will work the routes underneath the cover 2 from the pocket and also will take off for big yardage when the Bucs get caught too far upfield. The Falcons, itching to tee off on someone after losing to the Packers, will make that someone Simms. Falcons 24, Buccaneers 17.

RIVALRY OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia at New York Giants. Replacing a beat-up Donovan McNabb with the fresh legs of Mike McMahon may actually inject some life into the Eagles' offense, but the big dropoff between McNabb and McMahon comes in experience, especially in a difficult division road game. The Eagles' defense also has given away big play after big play, which should help Eli Manning get out of his slump.

The Eagles won't quit on coach Andy Reid no matter who they have on the field, but the Giants will be more desperate to rebound after last week's meltdown vs. Minnesota. The balance of power will continue to shift in the NFC East. Giants 24, Eagles 23.

TEAM OF THE WEEK

Carolina at Chicago. The Bears have cruised during their five-game winning streak, but the level of competition takes a serious jump this week. They have yet to beat a team with a current winning record, and the Panthers may just be the best team in the NFC.

No team could be finer than Carolina. John Fox's club can win with the passing game, Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith. Take Smith away, they can pound you with Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster. Defensively, they've been outstanding in getting sacks, takeaways and TDs to help that offense. The Bears will have their hands full, and if they single-cover Smith like they've done to other big-time receivers, they won't stay in it long. I like what Lovie Smith's doing, but his team is simply facing a much more talented opponent. Panthers 20, Bears 10.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

Minnesota at Green Bay. Because both teams can make their share of offensive mistakes, the score won't be as high as the production against each team's shaky defense. But in typical fashion between these NFC North rivals, the game will come down to the wire.

The Vikings are suddenly showing some cohesiveness, and the Packers are back to being a respectable opponent after winning at Atlanta. The difference to me is, at 4-5, Mike Tice and the Vikes are back to being very much alive in the NFC North race, and that should produce a good all-around game. I like the combo of grizzled Brett Favre and green Samkon Gado leading the Pack's offense, but their secondary will let them down late. Vikings 24, Packers 23.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Tennessee over Jacksonville. I'm just playing a hunch here that the Titans will come out fired up at home after a bye week and upend their higher-standing division rivals. Expect some hard-hitting trench action on both sides, but the grittiness of quarterbacks Steve McNair and Byron Leftwich will have both teams putting some points on the board.

You can expect something exciting and new from Jeff Fisher to throw off the Jags, and that will pay off a few times with big plays. Once more, I have another team winning by this same score. Titans 24, Jaguars 23.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Dallas over Detroit. The Cowboys will ride the momentum of their Monday night magic, as they'll be the team doing the heavy feasting in this pre-Thanksgiving game for both teams. Don't expect them to suddenly go to the "wishbone," however, as Drew Bledsoe, Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Glenn all can carve up Detroit's shaky secondary.

Both Roy Williamses come into this game red-hot, but the Cowboys' safety's defensive backfield mates will keep the Lions' wide receiver in check all day to limit their offense. Cowboys 27, Lions 10.

REST OF THE WEEK

New Orleans at New England. Is there any better example of quarterback/coach stark opposites than Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in contrast to Aaron Brooks and Jim Haslett? The Patriots' Super Bowl savvy will pay off against an inferior opponent as they will make fewer mistakes and make more big plays, and home-field advantage will give a much-needed confidence boost to their defense. Patriots 31, Saints 14.

Miami at Cleveland. Speaking of Belichick, he should be proud of the way his former defensive coordinators Nick Saban and Romeo Crennel have handled themselves as rookie head coaches. Not surprisingly, they've each started to rebuild with 3-4 defense and emphases on power running games. At this point, however, the Dolphins have better talent and better execution with both phases. Dolphins 20, Browns 19.

Oakland at Washington. The Redskins can't afford to make this a shootout against Kerry Collins and Randy Moss after losing a surprisingly high-scoring affair last week at Tampa, especially with their struggles to create turnovers and sacks. Expect plenty of Clinton Portis and more ball-control drives from Brunell, with their own explosive receiver Moss -- Santana -- making a game-changing play against the Raiders' injury-depleted secondary. Redskins 26, Raiders 21.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore. The Steelers have played their best football on the road this season, going 4-0 and winning by double-digit spreads three times. The desperate Ravens will bring out their physical best against their AFC North archrivals, but although that will leave Bill Cowher's team a little black and blue, the visitors still will have a well-earned victory to show for it. Steelers 16, Ravens 13.

New York Jets at Denver. Everything is going wrong for the Jets -- injuries, an enigmatic defense and an unenviable schedule. Denver marks the seventh team currently above .500 that Herman Edwards' team has faced in 10 games. Everything is going right for the Broncos -- their running game, run defense and Jake Plummer. Oh yeah, they're also 5-0 at home, averaging a shade fewer than 30 points per game there. Broncos 33, Jets 16.

Buffalo at San Diego. I've received access to the Chargers' top secret offensive game plan: Coming off a bye, they will have LaDainian Tomlinson rested and ready at home to run over the league's second-worst rushing defense. Despite facing the league's third-worst pass defense, the Bills lack the protection and playmakers needed to keep up with Tomlinson. Chargers 27, Bills 17.

Kansas City at Houston. I've received access to the Chiefs' top secret offensive game plan: Coming off a loss, they will have Larry Johnson ready on the road to run over the league's worst rushing defense. I think David Carr will have some success getting rid of the ball quickly and spreading it around on the league's fourth-worst pass defense, but that won't be enough to get his team a rare prime-time victory. Chiefs 24, Texans 20.

WEST OF THE WEEK

I almost forgot the NFC West, but could you blame me? Here we go ...

Arizona at St. Louis. Larry Fitzgerald and the likely return of Anquan Boldin will help Kurt Warner play well in his return to the Edward Jones Dome as they'll run right past the Rams' secondary, but even if he passes for 350 yards, it won't help the fact the Cards don't have a running game or a defense. The Rams will pass and run at will with Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson, and they rarely are on the losing end of a shootout at home. Rams 27, Cardinals 20.

Seattle at San Francisco. "I'm tired. It's been a long day." That's either me right now or a 49ers' defender on Sunday after Shaun Alexander has left skidmarks on their entire front seven. Seahawks 34, 49ers 13.

STATS OF THE WEEK

Week 10 straight up: 10-4


Week 10 record vs. the spread: 7-7


Season record straight up: 94-50
Season record vs. the spread: 70-74

[Blackbeard]

Chicago Sun Times NFL Staff Picks

http://www.suntimes.com/output/footb...nflcaps18.html

[Blackbeard]

Chicago Tribune/Terry Bannon NFL

Game of the week: Colts-Bengals.
Last week's record: 10-4
Season record: 91-53
Panthers (7-2) at Bears (6-3)
TV/radio: WFLD-Ch. 32, WBBM-AM 780, noon Sunday.
Line: Panthers by 3.
Last meeting: Panthers won 24-14 at Carolina on Dec. 22, 2002.
Key stats: Bears lead NFL in total defense and fewest points allowed.
Fantasy factor: Panthers' Steve Smith leads NFL with 9 TD receptions. Ex-Panther Muhsin Muhammad leads Bears with 38 catches, 2 TDs.
The buzz: Bears are playing with plenty of confidence, and their defense should shut down Panthers' running game. If they hold big pass plays to a minimum, they win.
Terry Bannon's pick: Bears 17, Panthers 13.

Bucs (6-3) at Falcons (6-3)
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Falcons by 6.
Last meeting: Bucs won 27-0 at Tampa on Dec. 5, 2004.
Key stat: Bucs have won 4 of last 5 in Atlanta.
Fantasy factor: Has Bucs QB Chris Simms figured things out after 3-TD game vs. Washington? Ex-Buc Warrick Dunn third in NFL in rushing (896 yards, 5.1 avg.).
The buzz: Bucs still need to reinvigorate running game, and Falcons should move the ball against a slumping Tampa defense.
Bannon's pick: Falcons 30, Bucs 27.

Dolphins (3-6) at Browns (3-6)
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Browns by 2½.
Last meeting: Dolphins won 10-7 at Miami on Dec. 26, 2004.
Key stat: Dolphins 1-3 on road, beating only Saints.
Fantasy factor: Dolphins' Chris Chambers having solid season with 36 catches, 5 TDs. Browns' Antonio Bryant has 38 catches, 3 TDs.
The buzz: Both teams troubled. Dolphins going with Sage Rosenfels at QB with Gus Frerotte out with sore finger. The team that controls the ball with its running game wins.
Bannon's pick: Dolphins 17, Browns 16.

Steelers (7-2) at Ravens (2-7)
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: OFF.
Last meeting: Steelers won 20-19 at Pittsburgh on Oct. 31, 2005.
Key stat: Steelers have won 11 straight road games since losing at Baltimore in '04.
Fantasy factor: Willie Parker leads Steelers' RB committee with 615 yards, 4.7 avg. Ravens' Kyle Boller still looking for that first TD pass (56 attempts, 4 INTs).
The buzz: Ben Roethlisberger can't play, so Tommy Maddox will direct conservative attack that will do enough for Steelers to win.
Bannon's pick: Steelers 20, Ravens 13.-UNLESS LINE TURNS OUT TO BE 7.

Lions (4-5) at Cowboys (6-3)
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Cowboys by 8.
Last meeting: Cowboys won 31-21 at Irving, Texas, on Oct. 31, 2004.
Key stat: Cowboys have won three straight at home by average of 15.7 points.
Fantasy factor: Lions' Roy Williams, healthy again, has 64 catches, 12 TDs in 16 career starts. Cowboys' Keyshawn Johnson has 42 catches, 5 TDs this season.
The buzz: Lions have shown some life on offense, but Cowboys' defense one of the NFL's toughest. As long as Cowboys aren't still celebrating win over Eagles, they roll.
Bannon's pick: Cowboys 27, Lions 17.

Saints (2-7) at Patriots (5-4)
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Patriots by 9½.
Last meeting: Patriots won 34-17 at Foxboro, Mass., on Nov. 25, 2001.
Key stat: Saints have scored 14.8 points per game in 5-game losing streak.
Fantasy factor: Saints' Donte Stallworth (38 catches, 3 TDs) could have big day against struggling secondary. Pats increasingly looking to TE Ben Watson, who had 2 TD catches last week.
The buzz: Patriots back on course after last week's win at Miami. Saints in a free fall.
Bannon's pick: Patriots 27, Saints 14.

Eagles (4-5) at Giants (6-3)
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Giants by 7½.
Last meeting: Eagles won 27-6 at East Rutherford, N.J., on Nov. 28, 2004.
Key stat: Eagles 1-4 on the road.
Fantasy factor: Eagles' Brian Westbrook has averaged 5.4 yards per carry in six games vs. Giants. Tiki Barber has three straight 100-yard games vs. Eagles.
The buzz: With Donovan McNabb injured, Eagles going with ex-Lions third-stringer Mike McMahon, best known for his inaccurate passing, though he can run. Giants can't wait.
Bannon's pick: Giants 33, Eagles 16.

Cardinals (2-7) at Rams (4-5)
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Rams by 9½.
Last meeting: Rams won 17-12 at Tempe, Ariz., on Sept. 18, 2005.
Key stat: Rams have won 6 of last 7 meetings.
Fantasy factor: Cards' Larry Fitzgerald leads NFL with 61 catches (5 TDs). Rams' Steven Jackson, averaging 4.7 per carry, has averaged 102.2 rushing yards last five games.
The buzz: Kurt Warner returns to St. Louis as Cards' starter, but Jackson should steal the show against a fading defense.
Bannon's pick: Rams 31, Cardinals 20.

Jaguars (6-3) at Titans (2-7)
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Jaguars by 4.
Last meeting: Titans won 18-15 at Jacksonville on Nov. 21, 2004.
Key stat: Jaguars are second in NFL with turnover differential of plus-10.
Fantasy factor: Jags' Greg Jones playing a larger role, with three TDs in last four games. Titans' Chris Brown on a roll with 192 yards the last two weeks.
The buzz: Titans' offense has been inconsistent most of the season, and Jaguars' defense has been solid.
Bannon's pick: Jaguars 20, Titans 14.

Raiders (3-6) at Redskins (5-4)
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Redskins by 6.
Last meeting: Redskins won 29-19 at Oakland on No. 29, 1998.
Key stats: Redskins 4-0 at home; Raiders 1-3 on road.
Fantasy factor: Raiders' Randy Moss has 32 catches, 5 TDs. Redskins' Santana Moss has 53 catches, 5 TDs.
The buzz: Raiders' inconsistent offense will struggle against Redskins' defense. And Raiders will have trouble containing Clinton Portis.
Bannon's pick: Redskins 30, Raiders 20.

Seahawks (7-2) at 49ers (2-7)
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Seahawks by 12½.
Last meeting: Seahawks won 42-27 at San Francisco on Nov. 7, 2004.
Key stat: Seahawks have won last four meetings.
Fantasy factor: Shaun Alexander just keeps on running, leading NFL with 1,114 yards and 17 rushing TDs. Former Illinois receiver Brandon Lloyd a rare bright spot for 49ers with 23 catches, 3 TDs.
The buzz: One of those best against the worst games. Ken Dorsey getting another shot at QB for 49ers, not that it matters.
Bannon's pick: Seahawks 33, 49ers 13.

Colts (9-0) at Bengals (7-2)
Time: 3:15 p.m. Sunday, WBBM-Ch. 2.
Line: Colts by 5½.
Last meeting: Colts won 28-21 at Indianapolis on Oct. 6, 2002.
Key stats: Colts 5-0 on road, winning by average of 20.
Fantasy factor: Game features NFL's No. 2 and No. 3 passers: Colts' Peyton Manning (17 TDs and 6 INTs) and Bengals' Carson Palmer (18 TDs and 5 INTs).
The buzz: Offense gets the headlines, defense wins games. Both will score, but Colts' boast league's leading pass rusher in Robert Mathis (9 sacks).
Bannon's pick: Colts 27, Bengals 24.

Jets (2-7) at Broncos (7-2)
Time: 3:15 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Broncos by 13.
Last meeting: Jets won 19-13 at East Rutherford, N.J., on Dec. 8, 2002.
Key stat: Jets 0-5 on road, losing all by at least 10 points.
Fantasy factor: Jets' Curtis Martin getting a modest 3.4 yards per carry. Broncos' Mike Anderson, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, could add to his total of 5 rushing TDs.
The buzz: Two teams headed in opposite directions. This is the best Denver team since the Elway era; this isn't the best Jets team since the Namath era.
Bannon's pick: Broncos 34, Jets 17.

Bills (4-5) at Chargers (5-4)
Time: 3:15 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Chargers by 10½.
Last meeting: Bills won 20-13 at Buffalo on Dec. 15, 2002.
Key stat: Bills second in NFL with turnover differential of plus-10.
Fantasy factor: Eric Moulds leads Bills with 42 catches, 3 TDs. Chargers tight end Antonio Gates has 51 catches, and 4 of his 6 TDs have come in the last three games.
The buzz: With three wins in last four weeks, Chargers are climbing into the playoff hunt. Drew Brees will keep the offense moving.
Bannon's pick: Chargers 27, Bills 20.

Chiefs (5-4) at Texans (1-8)
Time: 7:30 p.m. Sunday, ESPN, WSCR-AM 670.
Line: Chiefs by 6½.
Last meeting: Texans won 24-21 at Kansas City on Sept. 26, 2004.
Key stat: Chiefs 2-3 on the road.
Fantasy factor: Chiefs tight end Tony Gonzalez has 45 catches, but only one TD. Texans' Andre Johnson has 11 catches for 198 yards and 2 TDs in last two vs. Chiefs.
The buzz: Texans have shown gradual progress the last few weeks, but when you start out 0-6 it's hard to see.
Bannon's pick: Chiefs 23, Texans 20.

Vikings (4-5) at Packers (2-7)
Time: 8 p.m. Monday, WLS-Ch. 7, WSCR-AM 670.
Line: Packers by 3½.
Last meeting: Vikings won 31-17 at Green Bay on Jan. 9, 2005 in NFC wild-card game.
Key stat: Vikings have won last two meetings.
Fantasy factor: Vikings' Michael Bennett has three 100-yard rushing games vs. Packers. Packers rookie Samkon Gado, unknown until two weeks ago, has rushed for 165 yards and 4 TDs in last two weeks.
The buzz: Vikings pulled off road upset at Giants on Sunday thanks to kick, punt, INT returns for TDs. Don't look for a repeat. Packers picked up confidence with win over Atlanta.
Bannon's pick: Packers 24, Vikings 20

[Blackbeard]

I'm sure some of these guys records are straight up, I doubt they are ats unless they are noted as such, I haven't kept track.

[moondog22]

Just wanted to say,great record Blackbeard

[wrightmove]

nice day beard. maybe we hit a few in the nfl sun

[Blackbeard]

Thanks Moondog & Wrightmove!!!!!

[Blackbeard]

Dallas news nfl staff picks

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont...18nflpicks.pdf

[Blackbeard]

Miami herald/Greg Cote NFL picks

DOLPHINS (3-6) AT BROWNS (3-6)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: 4, 12

• Line: CLE by 2 ½ • Cote: MIA 20-13

This should be our Dog of the Week, or Dawg, given the venue, but we feel charitable. Homer-ish, too. Miami wins duel of Bill Belichick-protégé coaches in mini-upset because its defense (led by Pro Bowl fan-vote leader Zach Thomas) will leash-up Brownies' tepid O. On other side, Dolphs figure to get a psychological goose if Sage Rosenfels starts. Gus Frerotte seemed unlikely to go because his hurt finger is aggravated by a 68.1 passer rating. Miami's first trip to The Mistake by the Lake in 13 years finds Fins on six-game series win streak, including '04. So why stop now?

Game of the week
COLTS (9-0) AT BENGALS (7-2)

• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: 4, 12

• Line: IND by 5 ½ • Cote: IND 28-17

Battle of I-74 has busted out from regional to national, with Colts the NFL's lone unbeaten and Bengals headed for first playoffs since Boomer Esiason pitched. Peyton Manning vs. Carson Palmer tops a crowded marquee. A few factors favor Cincy (coming off a bye, weather, Indy having Steelers on deck), but I like Horseshoes. 'Nati receiver Chad Johnson vomited a lame guarantee -- ''I'll not be stopped'' -- but Indy's D and overall balance are the differenceColts are 22-7 on road under Tony Dungy, and overrated Cincy has feasted on a soft schedule and is due a comeuppance.

Upset of the week
PANTHERS (7-2) AT BEARS (6-3)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: CAR by 3 • Cote: CHI 17-14

``AAWWK!'' megaphones the Upset Bird. ``Chicaaawwwk!'' Make this a new prognosticatory rule of thumb: Any home dog that has won five straight and has the NFL's top-rated defense -- take that team. Granted, Panthers have won six in a row. I'm not overly impressed by either of these streakers, but I'll make it a venue call and trust Brian Urlacher's D to continue to make Kyle Orton's job easy. ``Just to make sure, Chicago has ordered more gale-force wind,'' reports U-Bird, a meteorologist. ``It'll be blowing so hard, the referee will be from FEMA. Aawwk!''

Dog of the week
CARDINALS (2-7) AT RAMS (4-5)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: STL by 9 ½ • Cote: STL 31-17

It's the Relocation Bowl, with Arizona having inherited the St. Louis Cardinals in 1988 and St. Louis in turn inheriting the L.A. Rams in '95. Now the adopted teams come together to form a bad game -- one of seven with point spreads of a TD-plus in a disparity-drenched week. Inspired Kurt Warner faces his ex-Rams for the first time, but it's all St. Lou here. Rams aren't playoff-dead in the weak NFC but must have this one. StL has won six of past seven in series, including this September, and Rams have won 42 of past 52 overall at home, where Marc Bulger is 20-3 as a starter.

JAGUARS (6-3) AT TITANS (2-7)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: JAX by 4 • Cote: JAX 24-10

This would be a fashionable home-dog upset pick, because Tenners are coming off a bye and have won six of seven and 11 of past 14 over Jags. Careful, though. J-ville is fighting to stay playoff-viable, and Titans' below-average defense and turnover-prone offense have put the droop in Jeff Fisher's mustache.

STEELERS (7-2) AT RAVENS (2-7)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: Off board • Cote: PIT 17-13

Game stayed off bet-board (Pitt would have been favored by 6) because Ben Roethlisberger remained iffy and likely to be saved for Indy next week. With Charlie Batch also injured, that would mean awful Tommy (Maalox) Maddox at QB. Oy! Still like Thieves to abscond with a 12th straight road win.

JETS (2-7) AT BRONCOS (7-2)

• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: DEN by 13 • Cote: DEN 41-14

Denver is a strong home team (seven straight W's at Mile High) with the offensive balance to overwhelm the battered Planes. Broncs have proven susceptible on pass defense, but that would require NYJ having a remotely credible air attack. Not many teams down to their fourth-string QB manage that.

BILLS (4-5) AT CHARGERS (5-4)

• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: SD by 10 ½ • Cote: SD 31-16

It's the Money Bowl. (Bills. Chargers. Get it? Sorry). Diego will score a bunch at home (Bolts on 9-2 roll there), and Williams don't bring enough offense to hang in a shootout. By the way, SD retires Lance Alworth's No. 19 at halftime. He had a great career, particularly for a guy nicknamed ``Bambi.''

CHIEFS (5-4) AT TEXANS (1-8)

• When: 8:30 p.m. Sunday • TV: ESPN

• Line: KC by 6 ½ • Cote: KC 34-13

Houston, though angling for April's No. 1 draft pick, makes a fairly tempting home dog in this prime-timer; Texans beat KC 24-21 in '04. Take Indians, though. Texans OL can't protect David Carr worth a lick, and the Weepin' Vermeils are due a big bounceback on offense vs. a very disappointing Houston D.

BUCCANEERS (6-3) AT FALCONS (6-3)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: ATL by 6 • Cote: ATL 20-17

Big division game is rare duel of lefty QBs in Chris Simms and Michael Vick. Tampa has won four of past five in Atlanta, but I'll stick with homies, and Vick's 21-6 record indoors. Still, TB's stout run-D will be enough of a test for ex-Buc Warrick Dunn and crew to fashion a tight game inside the betting number.

LIONS (4-5) AT COWBOYS (6-3)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: DAL by 8 • Cote: DAL 23-17

Both teams will turn it around fast and host Thanksgiving Day games. Could be a trap game for Dallas, an emotional lull between miracle at Philly and holiday stage vs. Denver. Like Cows anyway. Dallas has won past two in series, and Tunas will run on Motown's banged-up LBs. But Lions stay close.

EAGLES (4-5) AT GIANTS (6-3)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: NYG by 7 ½ • Cote: NYG 21-16

Hard not to like a Biggies D that hasn't allowed a TD in 13-plus quarters over a Philly offense down to Mike McMahon at QB, with Donovan McNabb likely out for the season. Birds have won four straight in series, but times have changed. Still, hunch-bet that desperate Philly somehow keeps it close.

SEAHAWKS (7-2) AT 49ERS (2-7)

• When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday • TV: 7, 29

• Line: SEA by 12 ½ • Cote: SEA 45-10

TD machine Shaun Alexander has led 'Hawks to five straight wins, and team has beaten Niners four straight. Frans dump Cody Pickett and try ex-Cane Ken Dorsey again but . . . is that a good thing? Bettor better beware, though. As with Indy-Houston last week, will Seattle win on auto-pilot?

VIKINGS (4-5) AT PACKERS (2-7)

• When: 9 p.m. Monday • TV: 10, 25

• Line: GB by 3 ½ • Cote: GB 27-23

Both teams coming off hugely needed, major upset wins: Vikes over NYG, Pack over ATL. Minny has won three of its past four, but like Cheesers at Lambeau to avenge 23-20 loss to 'Sota last month. Gee Bees boast offensive magic you can easily sum up in two words. Brett Favre? Nah. Samkon Gado!

SAINTS (2-7) AT PATRIOTS (5-4)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: NE by 9 ½ • Cote: NE 27-17

Saints have won three of past four in N-England, but it's been ages. Pats are 40-6 since 2001 in November and later, but that was before injuries took over. Bet here is champs covering a big number, not because Patriots are that good anymore -- but because Saints (as Miami happily discovered) are that bad.

RAIDERS (3-6) AT REDSKINS (5-4)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: WAS by 6 • Cote: WAS 27-17

Teams' first meeting since 1998 finds Oaks all but playoff-done and Skins struggling to stay in NFC contention. Norv Turner's return to Washingville (where he coached from 1994-00) won't be joyous. See a nice bounceback win by homies after last-second heartbreaker loss last week to gamblin' Bucs.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Had the Eagles covering three Monday night. Somebody hand me a gun. Philly is way up, late. Dandy Don is singing. I'm dancing. Wait! What!? Cowboys, 21-20. I threw can of Chunky soup at my TV. Can't whine too much, though. Another can-you-believe-it finish worked for me, when Tampa's late gamble kindly dropped an upset pick in my lap. A chaotic week all around. Good picks (Pack with points at Atlanta), bad picks (Rams winning in Seattle? What was I smokin'?). We're gonna get back up on the right side of .500 against the spread, though, you watch. We'd better, because our season so far has been merely ''decent.'' Unlike a certain Dolphins receiver, we can handle the truth.


OVERALL VS. SPREAD
Last week 8-6 .571 5-9 .357
Season 91-53 .632 68-70-6 .493

[Blackbeard]

NY Newsday/Ed Mcnamara + Staff selections NFL

http://www.newsday.com/sports/footba...sports-utility

[Blackbeard]

sports network

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.../tsn-picks.htm

[Blackbeard]

Foxsports

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Ravens coach Brian Billick has been staying up to the wee hours of the night lately surfing the ol' Internet. His favorite sites? Monster.com, Careerbuilder.com and Iamthemostoverratedthingsinceclearpepsi.net. Steelers 20, Ravens 3.

Carolina at Chicago: The last time the Bears had such a big game, Chris Farley was alive and well and doing Ditka jokes on Saturday Night Live. Panthers 24, Bears 13.

Miami at Cleveland: I was in Cleveland a few years ago checking out the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame when I saw this big stadium right next door. After being told it was the home of the Browns, I laughed and said "No, silly. The Browns moved to Baltimore a few years ago." Dolphins 9, Browns 6.

Detroit at Dallas: Wouldn't it be fun to see Bill Parcells do one of those Baywatch scenes where he runs topless down the beach in slow motion? Oh my god, I just puked in my mouth. Cowboys 24, Lions 10.

New Orleans at New England: After the Revolution's crushing loss in last week's MLS Cup, New England is in dire need of some good news. Patriots 27, Saints 17.

Philadelphia at New York Giants: I'd rather watch the unedited version of the movie Basic Instinct with both of my parents than hear any more news about T.O. Seriously. Enough is enough. Giants 23, Eagles 9.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: So inspired by the Bucs' decision to go for two points and the win last week rather than settling for the tie and overtime, a friend of mine decided it was time to finally get off the couch and end things with his boring girlfriend. Falcons 20, Buccaneers 10.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Titans are kind of like a bus boy at a fancy restaurant: they're a part of the whole process, but you don't pay much attention to them. Jaguars 17, Titans 13.

Oakland at Washington: What do you call a Raiders fan who went to college? A Niners fan. Redskins 24, Raiders 21.

Seattle at San Francisco: The Niners might as well start Bill Walsh at quarterback this week. At least he knows how to run the West Coast Offense. So what if he's 90. Seahawks 31, Niners 10.

Arizona at St. Louis: Somebody asked me this week if I was looking forward to Kurt Warner's return to St. Louis. When asked who Kurt Warner was again, my friend responded by explaining how he was the guy married to that woman who looks like Webster's Mom from that old show about the little fella with the new parents. Oh, that Kurt Warner! Rams 27, Cardinals 14.

Indianapolis at Cincinnati: The last time the Bengals won a big game, I still believed in Santa Claus. Sorry kids. Should have warned you about that one, eh? There's no Easter Bunny either. Colts 34, Bengals 20.

New York Jets at Denver: Coming to a gym near you very soon: Herm Edwards, personal trainer. Because really, his time is just about up in New York. Broncos 30, Jets 10.

Buffalo at San Diego: Bills fans feel the same way about J.P. Losman as a little kid does about his dad's new girlfriend: skeptical. Chargers 27, Bills 13.

Kansas City at Houston: After beating the Texans, Chiefs head coach Dick Vermeil breaks down into tears and says, "I'm so sorry we did that to them. Why couldn't it have been us who lost our 100th game of the year? Why?" Chiefs 24, Texans 10.

Minnesota at Green Bay: Is it still considered a rivalry when both teams stink worse than the Port-O-Potties outside Lambeau? Packers 23, Vikings 20

[Blackbeard]

Not looking good for NFL fades this week, there are 11 games coming up, and that does not sit well with me, and the teams are lame also, gonna try to pick 1 or 2 out of this mess...