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Well....St. Louis (+104) and the Cubs (-115) come up winners today at -1 1/2 runs bringing the total straight up win record since April 24 on teams favored by -200 or more at 27-4. What is most impressive about this run is that 20 of the 27 wins were by more than 1 1/2 runs. The other 7 were wins by 1 run. Laying 1 1/2 runs usually brings the 200+ number down to anywhere from +104 to -150, depending on how much over -200 the team is. Taking an average of -120 and betting 1 dime per game, you would have won 20,000 and lost 13,200 for a net profit of 6,800. I haven't won that much, because I didn't start trusting it until about half way into it and even still as in yesterday's Cubs debacle, I could not make myself bet on them today as a -230 fav and they killed Colorado 10-3. Plus I've been placing other bets which aren't nearly as predictable as was the totals today. Sill, my major play was the Cards so it was a prfitable day. No -200's tomorrowunless LAA, the Cubs or Florida go up some during the day. It's a great system so far. I'm just now to the point of trusting it, so I thought I'd pass it along. Good luck!
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Last edited by JohnnyFairPlay; 05-28-2005, 01:55 AM. -
IMO never the the home favorite on the RL. The home team doesn't bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are winning by one run or once they score a run in extra innings.
Secondly, I wouldn't trust it just yet. A 5 week run doesn't make a long term winning system. I'm certain long term it'll be close to a break even system. -
I Have won plenty betting run line on home team >dont think its a bad play???NFL RECORD 16-14-0 + 1UNITS
College Basketball 8-3-0 + 5 Units
College Football 6-6-1 -4 Units
NBA Basketball 11-12-0 -3 Units
NHL 1-1-0 + 0 UnitsComment
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I play these everyday, but at -1 on the runline. I pushed 12 games this year alone, so I suggest you play them at -1 and not -1.5 or your system will not fair so good! I lost about 6 earlier games playing -1.5 runlines with hometeams until I found that Pinnacle takes those little golden -1 gems.Originally posted by JohnnyFairPlay
Good luck on whatever you do!
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I noticed your POD yesterday with the -1 gem on St. Louis, Mr. Cheese. I have heard you mention it but it didn't sink in till that moment. I believe that is a solid play. I like percentage plays and that play sounds solid. Franks take on the RL home team also makes sense, maybe he has some stats on this factor. Home vs Away RL. Thanks for the info. The parlays I hit yesterday could have included some RL at -1 for a bigger gain. I believe if it ties - the bet is brought down to the remaining teams that are in the parlay with value just on the remaining teams. Such as 2 team parlay- figures as a single bet on the remaining team. Is this correct?
"The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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Yes you are correct.The parlays I hit yesterday could have included some RL at -1 for a bigger gain. I believe if it ties - the bet is brought down to the remaining teams that are in the parlay with value just on the remaining teams. Such as 2 team parlay- figures as a single bet on the remaining team. Is this correct?
And we all know what happened to Bad Luck when he tried to play the NYY on the money line at those high odds!!!
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I have the stats at work. If I remember correctly the home favorite wins 28% of their games by 1 run.Originally posted by SpearitComment
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Also I believe 18% of all home favorite games are 1 run victories.Comment
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Spearit, where do you get parlays that you can buy the RL down to -1? I know Pinny doesn't allow it. I want to open an account with an off-shore that does allow it.Originally posted by SpearitComment
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Mr. Chuck E. Cheese utilizes this play. I would like that info as well. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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Taking Chicago Cubs -1
Got it last night at Pinny at -132
It's -146 now.
I don't know about any stats except the ones I've been keeping. I see your point about 1 run Chuck....I have just had trouble spotting a run and laying -150 to -170. However, as you pointed out, the 7 one run games would have been a push.
Will be playing Florida -1 (-152) and possibly LAA later -1 run.
Good Luck!Comment
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all good looking plays---too late now, but would have also made a good 3 team ML parlay....Remember you can lose 11% of your offensive power (chance to score) if you're home team and up by 1 in the 9th....Thats a lot....GL to ya, and have a safe holiday...kapt
Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!Comment
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Hope you hitComment
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Cubs win by 4!
Teams favored -200 + are now 28-4 since April 24 with the Cubs win. Next play is:
Florida -1 (-152)Comment
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Did you include the Angels from last night? They were favorites -200 or more. They won by one run.Comment
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