Laying Chalk and Runs With Heavy Favs

[JohnnyFairPlay]

No I did not. For my stats, I have gone by the last posted odds listed at scoresandodds.com The last line shown on LAA last night was -185.

[frankb03]

Since last season the home favorite

283-131 68.4% -2690

Of those 283 victories 75 or 26.5% were by 1 run

[frankb03]

For this season

45-13 77.6% +1610
11 one run victories


Since 4/24 my data shows

29-9 76.3% +960
7 games were 1 run victories

Long term you will lose money play -200 or more favorites on the ML. I'm certain the same holds true on the RL. I'm not sure about the RL -1

[Spearit]

Frank- Thank You. It appears that it would be 34-24 for the season playing the RL on the favorite team and since 4/24 22-16 would be the record for RL on the favorite This brings the percentages down drastically on a winning formula.
However, the RL -1 translates into 34-13- 11 for the season. Since 4/24 it is 22-9-7. Now figuring the value of a winning bet has lessened from the RL-1 1/2 to say 190 down to 150 for an average RL -1--- would be the figure needed for comparison. I used that figure from Chucks earlier play. Hope this made sense.

[x0506947]

you guys play -1 runlines instead of -1.5 ,-1.5 lines had been kiling me however any of my books ofer those -1 lines can you tell me one that ofers them .thanks

[Kaptain]

you guys play -1 runlines instead of -1.5 ,-1.5 lines had been kiling me however any of my books ofer those -1 lines can you tell me one that ofers them .thanks

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[Colnago]

Angels by 13

Frank,

LAA won 14-1

Dale

[frankb03]

Frank,

LAA won 14-1

Dale

??

[jim s.]

Hi ******-guys

Very interesting thread.....last year, a friend of mine at the Palace Statoin was `touting` the virtues of the R/L over M/L bets.....Since i was following the Cardinals pretty close at the time, I noticed an unusual amount of their games being decided by 1 run....So researching for the month of Aug., I found they played 29 games and of that 29 played. 17 were decided by 1 run which is around 60% or so.....Looking at the daily lines (about 16 games ) will also show that on any given day there are around 4-7 games which are decided by 1 run , or appx. say, 20%-30%.....This is the reason why i am VERY leery about tossing a ticket on the R/L...Hope this helps a little, and GL today

[JohnnyFairPlay]

Well.....I knew in the 4th inning when Ishii singled with two outs to score the first run, Florida was in trouble. Willis just didn't have it. He got pummeled and Florida couldn't hit their way out of a paper bag. That's been the story for them in this entire series. Unfortunatly, the Marlins are again a -200 + favorite with Beckett on the mound against Glavine. Just like the Cubs yesterday, I think Florida comes out of their batting slump today. Just in case though....I'm only gonna lay one run.

2-1 yesterday with LAA killing KC, bringing the record for -200 + favs to 28-5 with 7 of the victories by only 1 run. Still a prifitable day yesterday, but it had so much promise! Two games today:

Florida -1 -147
LAA -1 1/2 -117

Spearit....I think your data is incorrect. At least I'm pretty sure it is if you use scoresandodds final line. I went back through them all again and came up with:

Total wins: 28
Wins by 2 or more runs: 21
Losses: 5

Average wager on -1 run is -150

At $1000 per unit with all plays equal

wins: +21,000
losses: -7500
Total: +13,500

You are risking a lot, but up until today, it is definitely paying off.


Good Luck!

[JohnnyFairPlay]

Well....the Yankees became a play at the last minute. The line went to -200 right at game time, so they will go down as a loss. The Marlins rolled as expected, but the Angels blew a nice lead and ended up winning by one. Plays in the future will always be -1 run. It's not worth saving the chalk for the extra half run when you think about it. Granted one month is not a long time to establish an extremely reliable trend, however, the record for the past month is impressive laying one run. We will see. No games tomorrow.

[JohnnyFairPlay]

OK.....one play tomorrow.


San Diego -1 -150

I'm real leary about this play because Obermueller is pitching for Milwaukee and he has been lights out over his last three starts. He's allowed just one run in 15 innings I believe. Anyway....I'm gonna play this one light, 'cause were it not for the trend here, I would be playing Milwaukee. I even looked at taking Milwaukee +1 1/2 for -115. But since I like it, it's probably a loser, so I'll go with San Diego -1 -150 light.

Good Luck!

[frankb03]

OK.....one play tomorrow.


San Diego -1 -150

I'm real leary about this play because Obermueller is pitching for Milwaukee and he has been lights out over his last three starts. He's allowed just one run in 15 innings I believe. Anyway....I'm gonna play this one light, 'cause were it not for the trend here, I would be playing Milwaukee. I even looked at taking Milwaukee +1 1/2 for -115. But since I like it, it's probably a loser, so I'll go with San Diego -1 -150 light.

Good Luck!

Peavy's been great for SD.

[frankb03]

Average wager on -1 run is -150

At $1000 per unit with all plays equal

wins: +21,000
losses: -7500
Total: +13,500

I don't believe -150 is a realistic -1 average. Tomorrow SD is -210 ML and -1 -150. Approx. 1/2 of the games have been -200 to -210.

[JohnnyFairPlay]

I just said -150, because that's what I've played a number of them at. I wasn't trying to be exact, but I do believe it is very realistic. Less than half of the games played have been over -230. San Diego is -220 and -150 -1 run. Even if you figure -170 as the average, you're only talking about 1000.00 difference, so rather than 13,500, it would be 12,500 profit. I'll still take that every day if it continues to hold up.