Blacksheet: Bowl Selections

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Sagarin Ratings

I calculated these with no home field advantage, check usatoday.com for full explanation of these categories:

Rating: UCLA by 8.08 pts
Predictor: UCLA by 11.8 pts
UCLA SOS(strength of schedule) - 10
WYOM SOS -59
__________________

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I'm gonna count them up and should have 2nites tally soon.

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2nites tally(without cbs and sagarin)

marshall 21-12
Wyoming 20-13(corrected from before)

BTW- last year nypost picks which all agreed on the same team(only 1 in bowls) with TCU as 10 pt dog won, this year they all agree on 2 games: Wyoming and Navy

Also, 1 out of the 33 picks I'm using for the consensus is made by a chicken, yes a chicken & the chicken has the second best record ATS on collegefootballnews.com, but is 0-3 so far in bowls(the chicken picks randomly, same as a coin flip, tells you that we should all stop wasting our time capping games)

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Ok, that freakin chicken had Wyoming SU & ATS

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sports network

Friday, December 24th - 7:00 p.m. (et)
The Sports Network

By Gregg Xenakes, College Football Staff Writer

GAME NOTES: For their first-ever meeting on the football field, the UAB Blazers and the Hawaii Warriors hook up in Honolulu for the third annual Hawaii Bowl at Aloha Stadium. Not only is this the first game for the Blazers against Hawaii, it is also the first-ever bowl appearance for UAB, a team that went 7-4 this year as a member of Conference USA. Winless in four games all- time against members of the Western Athletic Conference, the Blazers won five of their first six games out of the gate in 2004 but then got caught up in league play and were taken to task by some of the better programs in the conference. Losses to Tulane, South Florida and Southern Miss in the second half of the campaign hurt. The Warriors, owners of one of the most aggressive offenses in the nation again this season, ripped off seven wins in eight tries at home, although they fell in the opener versus Florida Atlantic by a touchdown (35-28). Hawaii also lost to the usual suspects in the WAC, nationally-ranked UTEP and undefeated Boise State, as well as Fresno State in a shocking 70-14 effort on the mainland where the Warriors were winless in four attempts this season. The Warriors, locked into this particular bowl for the most part as long as they were eligible, needed to get it together down the stretch after the embarrassing loss to FSU and did just that with three straight victories over Idaho, Northwestern and Michigan State all at home. In terms of this specific postseason event, Hawaii has played in both of the previous contests, falling to Tulane in 2002 (36-28) before holding on for a 54-48 triple-overtime win against Houston last season. In all-time postseason appearances, the Warriors are 3-2 since playing in the 1989 Aloha Bowl.

Flying a bit under the radar unless one was a fan of Conference USA football, a player like wideout Roddy White could easily go undetected. However, he was a household name with those in the know, earning All-American status this season. Named a Third-Team All-American, White is just the second player in the nine-year history of Division I-A football for UAB to earn such a prestigious honor. As the only player in the nation with more than 60 catches averaging better than 20 yards per reception, White has a total of 65 grabs for 1,339 yards and 13 touchdowns this year. The yardage total is a new record in CUSA, with White posting a total of seven 100-yard games and averaging 121.7 ypg to place second nationally. Getting the ball to White was the responsibility of junior signal-caller Darrell Hackney, who hit on close to 55 percent of his attempts for 24 touchdowns and just seven interceptions on 304 attempts. When the passing game takes a break, players like Dan Burks and Corey White start making noise coming out of the backfield for the Blazers. Burks led the team with 150 carries for 825 yards and added three touchdowns, while his backfield mate (White) averaged five and a half yards per carry and made it into the end zone eight times.

While the Blazers were scoring 30.2 ppg, the defense for the squad was giving up 26.5 ppg, which made many contests too close for comfort. Opponents averaged 146.8 ypg on the ground and scored a total of 15 touchdowns rushing, while the pass defense for UAB was permitting an additional 257.7 ypg and 19 scores in all. Offenses found the Blazer defense so weak at times that they took a chance on fourth down 25 times (UAB just 10 on the year) and were successful on 14 occasions. The unit started out strong for the Blazers, giving up a total of just 40 points in the first quarter, but got progressively worse as the game wore on. Opponents went from putting up a combined 58 points in the second quarter and 72 in the third periods, to an unheard of 122 points in the fourth. Tied for the team lead in tackles with 92 were Zac Woodfin and Dominique Cosper, while Woodfin placed second on the squad in both tackles for loss (11) and sacks (five) and is now the top tackler in program history with 368 stops. Cosper was responsible for a team- high four forced fumbles, but the real performer for the Blazers in 2004 was Larry McSwain, who made 17 of his 54 tackles behind the line of scrimmage and was one of the nation's leaders in sacks with 13. A transfer from Jackson State, McSwain earned C-USA First-Team honors as a sophomore, the only second- year player in the conference to make either the first or second team on defense.

The offense for the Warriors begins and ends with the play of senior quarterback Timmy Chang. Playing out on the island kept him from being seen by too many football fans, but there's no denying that he's a special talent who can control the tempo of a game from deep inside the pocket. Chang, who is now the all-time leader in passing yards at the Division I-A level with 16,667 yards, also holds career records with total offense (16,514 yards), pass attempts (2,390), completions (1,357) and interceptions (80). Needing him to crank it up a notch in the final three games of the regular season, the Warriors watched as their passing guru threw for 1,197 yards and 14 touchdowns in the trio of wins. As a First-Team All-WAC choice this season, Chang made no secrets about his favorite target being Chad Owens, a First-Team WAC selection for the second straight campaign. Owens not only is a threat on offense, reeling in 22 passes for 438 yards and eight touchdowns in his last two games alone, he is also one of the biggest special teams weapons in the league, returning a total of four punts for touchdowns in 2004. While the passing offense is alive and well for the Warriors, ranked third in the nation, the rushing attack is on life support, generating just 96.9 ypg to rank 108th out of 117 Division I-A programs.

Having a faulty rushing offense only complicates matters when the Warriors practice stopping such plays. With that in mind, it should come as little surprise that Hawaii was rated dead last in the country in run defense this season, giving up a ridiculous 259.2 ypg and a total of 39 touchdowns. Opponents averaged close to five and a half yards per rushing attempt against the unit, so as fast as the Warrior offense was putting points on the scoreboard, the defense was often giving them right back in bunches. As a result, the team's scoring defense was second-worst in the WAC and ranked 112th in the nation, giving up 38.2 ypg. In terms of total defense, because the run stoppers were few and far between, the team was 115th in the country, permitting 479.2 ypg. Having played in all 12 games for the unit, Leonard Peters led the group with 111 tackles, his 73 solo stops nearly as many as his closest teammate, Watson Ho'ohuli (74 tackles) had total stops. Peters was one of the league leaders with four interceptions and forced three fumbles, while First-Team All-WAC choice Abraham Elimimian (58 tackles) registered a team- best five interceptions and was responsible for one of the unit's four blocked kicks.

The key to the game will be how well the Hawaii offensive line can keep the Blazers from breaking in on Chang. If the Warrior signal-caller gets rattled early he could be thrown off his rhythm for the entire game. While playing at home in a bowl game might be an advantage for some teams, the crowd has been known to get on Chang at the first sign of inconsistency. However, with this being his last game in Honolulu expect a big performance out of the gunslinger.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Hawaii 45, UAB 35

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Msnbc

UAB (7-4)
vs.
Hawaii (7-5)

Date: Dec. 24

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Location: Honolulu

Television: ESPN

Payout: $750,000

Last result: Hawaii 54, Houston 48, 3OT

Bowl history/last appearance: UAB 0-0; Hawaii 3-2 (won 54-48, 3OT, over Houston in 2003 Hawaii)

Series: First meeting

2004 results: UAB; Hawaii

2004 statistics: UAB; Hawaii

Coaches: Watson Brown (UAB); June Jones (Hawaii)

What UAB has to do to win: Backpedal. Hawaii QB Timmy Chang throws and throws. The Blazers will be upright in pass defense most of the game. Defense will be all about sure tackles after the catch and tipping passes. The secondary has to make plays. UAB ranked near the bottom of C-USA in pass defense.

What Hawaii has to do to win: Pay attention in practice in the week leading up to the game. UAB will also throw the ball a bunch, and the Warriors can get warmed up by playing against Chang in practice. Hawaii ranked last in run defense in the WAC, so they have to be prepared for UAB to try and control the ball with the run.

Opening point spread: Pick 'em

Prediction: Hawaii 28, UAB 21.

MVP: Hawaii QB Timmy Chang.

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Should have todays sagarin & consensus in an hour or 2

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Sagarin Ratings

Rating: HAWAII by .56 pts
Predictor: UAB by .14 pts
UAB SOS(strength of schedule) - 89
HAWAII SOS - 93

:christmas

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tODAYS CONSENSUS

Hawaii 24, Uab 9

CONSENSUS RECORD 2-2

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sports network

Monday, December 27th - 2:00 p.m. (et)
The Sports Network

By Pat Taggart, College Football Writer

GAME NOTES: The MPC Computers Bowl will take place in Boise on December 27th and feature the 18th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers and the Fresno State Bulldogs. Virginia owns an 8-3 record and finished 5-3 against always formidable ACC competition. This matchup with Fresno State marks the third consecutive bowl bid for the Cavs and the 15th postseason trip in program history. They have won the Continental Tire Bowl the previous two seasons, and this year's squad is every bit as good as those two teams if not better. The three losses during the regular season came against Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech, a trio of tremendous opponents. As for Fresno State, it is playing in a bowl game for the sixth consecutive year and the 19th time overall. This game marks the fourth consecutive year the Bulldogs will play a BCS conference opponent in a bowl game, and they will attempt to extend their bowl winning streak to three straight games after knocking off Georgia Tech and UCLA the last two seasons. Fresno State, which competes in the WAC, finished the regular season at 8-3 overall. The team carries a five game winning streak into this bowl, and has outscored its last four opponents by a total of 280-80.

Over the first half of the regular season, Virginia's offense was simply unstoppable. The unit was not able to maintain its high level of play over the final six outings however, as near perfection was replaced by inconsistency. Still, Fresno figures to have its hands full. The Cavs average 29.9 ppg and 423.5 total ypg, and the running game is clearly the strength of the offense. They are gaining 241.3 ypg on the ground on an average of 5.2 ypc, and they have posted 31 rushing touchdowns in 11 games. Alvin Pearman leads the way in rushing yards with 985, and he has reached the end zone nine times on the ground. Fellow tailback Wali Lundy, who has run for 801 yards, has scored 16 times to rank among the national leaders. As for the passing attack, Marques Hagans has completed 63.2 percent of his throws for 1,862 yards with eight scores and five picks, providing enough of a passing threat to keep opposing defense from putting nine in the box. Heath Miller recently won the John Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end, and he leads Virginia with 36 catches for 475 yards and five receiving touchdowns. Also worthy of mention is stud offensive lineman Elton Brown, a two-time recipient of the Jacobs Trophy as the ACC's most outstanding blocker.

The Virginia defense has been tremendous this season, as the unit is allowing its opponents to scoring only 15.9 ppg and gain just 299.7 total ypg.While the Cavs have been one of the most potent rushing teams in the nation, they have been outstanding against the run defensively as well. Teams are gaining 108.6 rushing ypg against them on an average of 3.2 ypc, overshadowing the performance of a solid pass defense that has held its own for the most part. Virginia has posted a rather low total of 16 takeaways in 11 games, but its total of 34 sacks is certainly impressive. All-American linebacker Ahmad Brooks is one player definitely worth watching in this bowl game, as he is invaluable to the Cavs defensively. Brooks paced the club with 85 total tackles, including nine for loss, and six of his TFLs have been sacks. Darryl Blackstock has been outstanding as well, as he leads Virginia by a landslide with his 11 sacks.

Virginia will have to bring its A-game defensively, as Fresno State is averaging a gaudy 40.5 ppg, much more impressive than the solid average of 399.7 total ypg. Of the 54 touchdowns scored by the offense, 36 have come on the ground, and that number is especially high considering that the WAC is known for its huge passing numbers. The Bulldogs are averaging 228.0 ypg on the ground on an average of 5.4 ypc. Bryson Sumlin has been tremendous for the squad, as he has racked up 1,010 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 ypc. He has gotten plenty of help from fellow tailback Wendell Mathis, as he has gained 869 yards on 6.6 ypc en route to his 12 scores. That duo is among the best in the nation from a statistical standpoint and will be key against Virginia. Of the 260 passes attempted by Fresno State, 256 are credited to starting signal caller Paul Pinegar. While not close to former Bulldogs' great David Carr in regard to talent or hype, Pinegar has tossed 18 scores to go along with 1,864 yards. He has, however, tossed 15 interceptions, and it will be important to avoid turnovers against the Cavs. Offensive tackle Logan Mankins was recently named Fresno's State MVP, an honor rarely bestowed upon a lineman.

Like the Cavaliers, the Bulldogs have a strong defense that is often overshadowed a bit by a strong offense. Fresno is surrendering only 19.9 ppg and 331.7 total ypg, and the pass defense has been especially strong. Opposing quarterbacks have barely been able to complete half of their passes against the Bulldogs, who have picked off 16 balls and allowed only eight touchdowns through the air. Add to the high interception total the 13 fumbles recovered as well as 26 sacks and it is certainly fair to say the Fresno has been extremely opportunistic. Against the run, the defense is surrendering 155.8 ypg but only 3.8 ypc. Tyrone Culver leads the squad with 59 tackles, and three other players have made at least 55 stops. Garrett McIntyre, who has 44 tackles to his credit, has posted seven sacks to lead the way.

This matchup should be extremely fun to watch, as it will be interesting to see if either defense can stop the opposition's potentially explosive offense. Give a narrow edge to Virginia, as it has faced much tougher teams than Fresno to date.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Virginia 34, Fresno State 31

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sports network

Monday, December 27th, 5:30 p.m. (et).
The Sports Network

By Ralph Lauro, College Football Staff Writer

GAME NOTES: Ford Field in Detroit is the site of the 2004 Motor City Bowl, which features the Connecticut Huskies out of the Big East Conference and the Toledo Rockets from the Mid-American Conference. The Huskies earned bowl eligibility for the second straight season by finishing 7-4 overall and an even 3-3 in league play. Last fall, UConn went 9-3 but as an Independent could not secure a berth. This is the program's first-ever bowl game since moving to the Division I-A ranks in 2002. That season, the Huskies went an even 6-6 overall, giving them a 22-13 mark at the I-A level. While UConn has had no experience playing in a bowl, it has had success playing against MAC teams, going 7-1 since 2002. As for Toledo, it earned its invite to Detroit by winning the MAC Championship with a 35-27 triumph over Miami-Ohio. It was the third straight win and the ninth in the last 10 games overall by the Rockets, who finished the regular season at 9-3, including a 7-1 mark in MAC play. Toledo has made two other appearances in the Motor City Bowl, defeating Cincinnati (23-16) in 2001 and losing to Boston College (51-25) in 2002. Overall, the Rockets have made eight bowl appearances, posting an impressive 7-1 mark. This game represents the first-ever meeting between Toledo and UConn on the football field.

The Huskies have had no trouble moving the ball this season, and are averaging a solid 29.5 ppg and 432.6 total ypg. The team is racking up a respectable 147.5 ypg on the ground and an even better 285.2 ypg through the air. The offense, however, has hurt itself with mistakes at times, as evidenced by its 23 turnovers. Dan Orlovsky put together another strong regular season, as he threw for 3,115 yards with 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He completed an impressive 64.4 percent of his tosses with a pass efficiency rating of 137.25. Keron Henry has proven to be the team's primary target downfield with 58 catches for 782 yards and five touchdowns. Matt Cutaia and Jason Williams are two other players that have gotten into the mix with 42 and 41 catches, respectively. As for the ground game, it is led by one of the better backs in the Big East in Cornell Brockington, who has rushed for 1,146 yards and 11 scores this season. The speedy and nimble Brockington also has solid hands, as his 34 catches certainly shows.

Defensively, the Huskies are nothing short of solid, giving up just 22.7 ppg and only 331.2 total ypg. The unit has done a decent job against the run (141.5 ypg) and an even better job against the pass (189.6 ypg). UConn has allowed 14 touchdowns through the air, while countering with eight interceptions. Overall, the defense has forced 16 turnovers, in addition to posting 19 sacks. Alfred Fincher has been simply sensation for the Huskies this season and leads the team in tackles (131) and forced fumbles (five). He also has 12 TFLs and two sacks to his credit with one pick as well. James Hargrave is another player worth mentioning, as he turned in 78 tackles, including a team-best 13.5 TFLs and four sacks. Justin Perkins paced the club with four interceptions and 11 passes deflected, while Shawn Mayne was the main guy up front with 4.5 sacks and 8.5 TFLs.

Toledo has one of the more prolific offenses in the MAC this season and the team is averaging 35.2 ppg on the strength of 474.1 total ypg. The Rockets use a solid ground attack (167.8 ypg), while doing the bulk of their damage through the air (306.3 ypg). They have a near even split between their 53 touchdowns scored. Quarterback Brad Gradkowski leads the Toledo offense as he has thrown 27 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. He is completing an impressive 70.8 percent of his tosses for 289.8 ypg with a team-best eight rushing touchdowns also to his credit. Lance Moore has benefited greatly from Gradkowski's success this season and is one of the top wideouts in the nation with 85 catches for 1,141 yards and an impressive 14 touchdowns. Steve Odom and Kenny Higgins have been overshadowed by Moore, but their combined 92 grabs, 1,310 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns are nothing to sneeze at. Scooter McDougle and Quinton Broussard head the team's ground attack with 620 and 507 rushing yards, respectively. However, McDougle, who leads the club with seven touchdowns and has been carrying the load the last few weeks, is expected to miss this game with a knee injury suffered in the MCA title bout.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Rockets have been nowhere near as good as the offense, allowing 30.4 ppg on 419.2 total ypg. The unit is giving up 141.1 ypg on the ground and 278.1 ypg through the air with 22 forced (11 interceptions) turnovers. Toledo has posted a respectable 23 sacks on the season, but is allowing its opponents to convert 44.0 percent of their third downs. Patrick Body heads the defense, as he has made a team-best 102 tackles to go along with four forced fumbles and two interceptions. Keon Jackson has also made an impact for the Rockets with a team-best 10 TFLs, three interceptions and three sacks. Phil Alexander has been the player most responsible for getting pressure on the quarterback, and he has a club-best 4.5 sacks to go long with his 53 total tackles.

Both teams have prolific offenses which should make for an entertaining and high-scoring affair. Toledo, however, has the advantage as the game is being played at the same site of the MAC title game, where numerous Rocket fans filled the seats. With another strong game from Gradkowski and Moore, Toledo should be able to end its season on a winning note.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Toledo 38, Connecticut 31

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Msnbc

Fresno State (8-3)
vs.
No. 18 Virginia (8-3)

Date: Dec. 27

Time: 2 p.m. ET

Location: Boise, Idaho

Television: ESPN

Payout: $750,000

Last result (formerly Humanitarian Bowl): Georgia Tech 52, Tulsa 10

Bowl history/last appearance: Fresno State 8-6 (won 17-9 over UCLA in 2003 Silicon Valley Classic); Virginia 6-8 (won 23-16 over Pittsburgh in 2003 Continental Tire)

Series: First meeting

2004 results: Fresno State; Virginia

2004 statistics: Fresno State; Virginia

Coaches: Pat Hill (Fresno State); Al Groh (Virginia)

What Fresno State has to do to win: The Bulldogs have their track shoes on with big-time points the last half of the season. They just have to be strong enough on defense to get the ball away from Virginia’s run game. Fresno State looked good early in the year with wins over Washington and Kansas State, but faltered. Here’s a chance for redemption.

What Virginia has to do to win: Just play close to its potential. The Cavaliers have much better talent than Fresno State and can win in a walk. Virginia led the ACC in run offense with 251 yards so the Cavaliers should be able to push the Bulldogs around on the blue field of Boise.

Opening point spread: Virginia by 6

Prediction: Virginia 42, Fresno State 21

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Msnbc

Toledo (9-3)
vs.
Connecticut (7-4)

Date: Dec. 27

Time: 5:30 p.m. ET

Location: Pontiac, Mich.

Television: ESPN

Payout: $750,000

Last result: Bowling Green 28, Northwestern 24

Bowl history/last appearance: Toledo 6-2 (lost 51-25 to Boston College in 2002 Motor City); Connecticut 0-0

Series: First meeting

2004 results: Toledo; Connecticut

2004 statistics: Toledo; Connecticut

Coaches: Tom Amstutz (Toledo); Randy Edsall (Connecticut)

What Toledo has to do to win: QB Bruce Gradkowski, who played with a broken bone in his throwing hand a separated shoulder in the Rockets' MAC championship game win, runs an offense that scores 35 points a game. The problem is a defense that gave up 63 to Kansas and 63 to Minnesota.

What Connecticut has to do to win: The Huskies beat Buffalo, Rutgers, Temple, Army, among others. They are in their first bowl, which is a good story for them, but the program has a long way to go.

Opening point spread: Toledo by 3

Prediction: Toledo 35, Connecticut 14

MVP: Toledo QB Bruce Gradkowski

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Sagarin Ratings

Rating: VA by 4.37 pts
Predictor: FS by .71 pts
VA SOS(strength of schedule) - 34
FS SOS - 79

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Sagarin Ratings

Rating: CONN by .63 pts
Predictor: TOL by .19 pts
TOL SOS(strength of schedule) - 119
CONN SOS - 106