Blacksheet: Bowl Selections

[Blackbeard]

Sagarin ratings

I calculated these with no home field advantage:

Georgia Tech by 3.75-4 pts
GT SOS(strength of schedule) - 28
SYR SOS - 52

[Blackbeard]

Heres what I see for 2nite based on the posts in this thread:
ATS: about 18-15 for GT (CBS & sagarin not included)

[SHORE BET]

Bowl Newsletters

Anyone have newsletters on all the bowls or upcoming pro football.

CKO, Marc Lawrence playbook, power sweep..etc.

Love this new look, I hope I'm in the right thread.. :christmas

[Blackbeard]

Newsletters, stats, trends...feel free to stick them in this thread, so far the consensus of this thread was right yesterday with GT, and consensus on service thread had Cuse.

[Blackbeard]

sports network

Wednesday, December 22nd, 8:00 p.m. (et).
The Sports Network

By Ralph Lauro, College Football Staff Writer

GAME NOTES: A couple of teams with identical records meet in the GMAC Bowl, as the Bowling Green Falcons take on the Memphis Tigers from Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. Although Bowling Green finished in second place in the Mid-American Conference's West Division at 6-2, it is arguably the most dangerous team in the league. The Falcons won seven of their last eight games during the regular season en route to an 8-3 ledger. The team has now won eight or more games in each of the past four seasons which is a school record. This game marks BGSU's seventh bowl appearance, having posted an even 3-3 mark in such contests. The Falcons, who defeated Northwestern (28-24) in the 2003 Motor City Bowl, also won the 1992 Las Vegas Bowl, the 1991 California Raisin Bowl and played in the 1982 and 1985 Raisin Bowls as well as the 1961 Mercy Bowl. As for Memphis, it also posted an 8-3 overall mark during the regular season, including a 5-3 record in Conference USA play, earning it a second- place finish. The Tigers, who have won three straight games coming in, are making their second straight appearance in a bowl game for the first time ever. Memphis snapped a 32-year bowl drought last season with a visit and win over North Texas (27-17) in the New Orleans Bowl. This game marks the first- ever meeting between Bowling Green and Memphis on the gridiron.

This year, the Falcons boasted the most potent offense in the MAC, ranking second nationally in pass offense (335.6 ypg), fourth in total offense (501.6 ypg) and scoring offense (43.6 ppg) and fifth in passing efficiency (165.9). In addition, the Falcons rank fourth in the country in turnover margin (+1.36) and committed just eight miscues during the regular season. Quarterback Omar Jacobs, the MAC's Offensive Player of the Year, is the main reason for the team's success, as he leads the nation in touchdown passes with 36. He has thrown just three interceptions in 418 attempts, while completing 67.7 percent of his tosses for 3,637 yards. Jacobs can also influence the outcome of a game with his legs, as he has rushed for 291 yards and four scores. Cole Magner and Charles Sharon are the two players Jacobs looks to most, as they have grabbed 68 and 61 passes, respectively. Sharon leads the team with 958 yards and 13 touchdowns, while Magner checks in with 678 yards and six scores. Tailback P.J. Pope has also played big part in the offenses' success with a team-best 947 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Pope is a speedy and versatile back with good hands, as evidenced by his 49 catches for 477 yards and five touchdowns.

Although Bowling Green's defense hasn't been as good as its offense, it still has done a respectable job in allowing just 22.5 ppg. The unit is giving up 136.3 ypg on the ground and 253.6 ypg through the air, while forcing a solid 23 turnovers (13 interceptions). Keon Newson earned First Team All-MAC honors after ranking third on the team in tackles (66) and first in interceptions (five). Jovon Burkes joins Newson on the All-MAC First Team with a club-best 80 tackles, which includes six TFLs. Jelani Jordan is another player worth noting, as he has recorded 63 tackles and a team-best 14 PBUs. Devin Parks and Matt Leininger each tallied four sacks, helping the team tally 23 sacks on the year. Unfortunately, Leininger has been dismissed from the team for an undisclosed reason and will not be available for this game.

Much like Bowling Green, Memphis relies heavily on its explosive offense, which is averaging 35.0 ppg behind 464.5 total ypg. The Tigers are rushing for an impressive 213.5 ypg, while airing it out for 251.1 ypg. However, unlike the Falcons, the Memphis offense revolves around a tailback in DeAngelo Williams. The speedy and electric Williams was recently named the co-Offensive Player of the Year in C-USA along with Louisville QB Stefan LeFors. Williams, who won the league's Offensive Player of the Year award last season, currently ranks third in the nation in rushing yards (1,828) and needs 172 yards in this game to become the 11th player in NCAA history to run for 2,000 yards in a single season. He has already set new school and conference records for rushing touchdowns (21) and total touchdowns (22), while posting four 200-plus yard rushing games. With 3,942 yards, Williams is the all-time leading rusher in Memphis history and ranks second in C-USA annals. While most of the focus is on Williams, play caller Danny Wimprine has put up some decent numbers as well. Wimprine is completing 55.4 percent of his throws for 233.5 ypg this season with 18 touchdowns versus 13 interceptions. Tavares Gideon has clearly been his main outlet and leads the team in catches (48), receiving yards (627) and receiving touchdowns (11).

On the defensive side of the ball, the Tigers have been nowhere near as effective as their offense as they are allowing 29.4 ppg and 405.0 total ypg. The unit has done a solid job against the run (137.2 ypg), but has been burnt for 267.8 ypg through the air and 24 touchdowns. The defense, however, has been able to record a modest 18 turnovers and 21 sacks through 11 games. Defensive back Wesley Smith was the only Tiger to earn First Team All-C-USA honors after ranking third on the club in tackles with 81. Dustin Lopez is another player to watch out for in the secondary, as he heads the club with four interceptions and 11 PBUs. Tim Goodwell is the team's top tackler with 96, while Marcus West has been a disruptive force along the line of scrimmage and leads the club in TFLs (9.5) and sacks (six).

This should be another highly entertaining bowl game with two premier offenses battling toe-to-toe. While neither team may be able to slow down the other, Bowling Green has the better defenses and that gives it the edge.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Bowling Green 45, Memphis 41

[Blackbeard]

Msnbc

Memphis (8-3)
vs.
Bowling Green (8-3)

Date: Dec. 22

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Location: Mobile, Ala.

Television: ESPN

Payout: $750,000

Last result: Miami, Ohio 49, Louisville 28

Bowl history/last appearance: Memphis 2-0 (won 27-17 over North Texas in 2003 New Orleans); Bowling Green 3-3 (won 28-24 over Northwestern in 2003 Motor City)

Series: First meeting

2004 results: Memphis; Bowling Green

2004 statistics: Memphis; Bowling Green

Coaches: Tommy West (Memphis); Gregg Brandon (Bowling Green)

What Memphis has to do to win: Give RB Deangelo Williams the ball as many times as he can carry it. The more he has it, the fewer times Bowling Green has it. Memphis needs to play defense with ball control in this game because of Bowling Green’s potent attack. The Tigers have had a problem with pass defense (10th in Conference USA) and that's not a good omen for this game.

What Bowling Green has to do to win: Make sure QB Omar Jacobs continues the tradition of top QBs playing in this game. The GMAC Bowl has featured Byron Leftwich and Ben Roethlisberger. Jacobs runs an offense that gets up and down the field like a basketball team.

Opening point spread: Bowling Green by 6

Prediction: Bowling Green 38, Memphis 21

MVP: Bowling Green QB Omar Jacobs.

[Blackbeard]

Sagarin Ratings

I calculated these with no home field advantage, todays had a big differential between the 2 categories, check usatoday.com for full explanation of these categories:

Rating: Memphis by .30 pts
Predictor: BG by 10.pts
BG SOS(strength of schedule) - 137
Mem SOS -100

[Blackbeard]

Heres what I see for 2nite based on the posts in this thread:
ATS: about 20-13 for Memphis, and I'm basing it at +3 spread (CBS & sagarin not included)

[aplous]

Looking for Executives Bowl package--He is charging 99 bucks for it...

[Blackbeard]

Just got home, I missed first game, but will post writeups and sagarin in the next half hour....

[Blackbeard]

sports network

Thursday, December 23rd, 6:30 p.m. (et).
The Sports Network

By Ralph Lauro, College Football Staff Writer

GAME NOTES: A couple of teams barley over .500 meet in the Fort Worth Bowl, as the Cincinnati Bearcats do battle with the Marshall Thundering Herd from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Texas. After just a 2-4 start, a postseason berth didn't seem likely for the Bearcats, but they found a way to rebound and with wins in four of their last five games they became bowl eligible. The team finished in a three-way tie for second place in the Conference USA standings (5-3), thanks in large part to its hot play down the stretch. This will be Cincinnati's fourth bowl game in the past five seasons and its eighth all-time. The Bearcats are just 3-4 in bowl games, with their last appearance coming in the 2002 New Orleans Bowl (a 24-19 setback to North Texas). As for Marshall, it also struggled at the beginning of the year, losing three straight games by a combined 15 points. However, much like Cincinnati, the Herd were able to rally and finish with a 6-5 overall ledger. The team also finished in a tie for second place in the East Division of the Mid-American Conference at 6-2, and thanks to the Big 12 not having enough bowl-eligible school's, Marshall was able to fill the vacated slot. This is the Herd's first appearance in the Fort Worth Bowl and its seventh bowl appearance in the last eight seasons overall. Marshall has a 5-2 all-time record in bowl games, including five straight wins. One of those victories came over Cincinnati by a count of 25-14 in the 2000 Motor City Bowl. Overall, the Herd and Bearcats have met nine times previously, with Cincinnati holding a 5-3-1 series edge.

Marshall's offense has been no where near as prolific as in years past, as it is turning in 25.2 ppg on just 338.3 total ypg. The Thundering Herd have had a difficult time running the ball (123.2 ypg), while the air attack (215.1 ypg) has been able to compensate for the lack of a ground game. However, throwing 14 interceptions against 18 touchdowns is clearly negative statistic. Play caller Stan Hill took nearly every snap this season, so there is no surprise he has accounted for 13 of the 14 picks. Still, he is completing 59.7 percent of his tosses for 204.5 ypg with 17 scores. Josh Davis is clearly his go-to- guy, as he leads the team with 81 catches and 847 yards. Brad Bates has been able to step up when Davis is double-teamed, as he has 48 catches for 507 yards and a team-best seven touchdowns. With 866 rushing yards, Earl Charles is certainly the top choice in the backfield. He has scored half of the team's 10 rushing touchdowns and is averaging a respectable 4.8 ypc. Charles is listed as questionable for this contest with a knee injury.

Defensively, Marshall ranked among the top teams in the MAC this season, allowing just 21.3 ppg and only 328.3 total ypg. The unit was solid against the run, yielding just 105.8 rushing ypg. Versus the pass, the Herd gave up 222.5 ypg and 17 touchdowns against the same amount of interceptions. The team also recorded an impressive 37 sacks, while allowing its opponent to convert only 26.0 percent of its third-down chances. Jonathan Goddard is certainly the heart and soul of the unit and was recognized for his outstanding play by being named the MAC Defensive Player of the Year. He led the nation in both sacks (16) and TFLs (28), while also forcing five fumbles and recovering three. Goddard posted 78 total tackles, five pass break-ups and has scored on a fumble return and an interception. Chris Royal is another player opposing teams will have to keep an eye on, as his six interceptions rank among the nation's leaders.

The Bearcats have been nothing short of solid on the offensive side of the ball this season, as they are averaging 28.4 ppg behind 406.2 total ypg. The team has displayed a good deal of balance between the run (184.8 ypg) and the pass (221.4 ypg), with 24 of its 41 touchdowns coming through the air. Quarterback Gino Guidugli is certainly the key to the offense and has been on fire down the stretch. For the year, Guidugli is completing 60.8 percent of his pass attempts for 240.2 ypg, with 24 touchdowns against only seven interceptions. His main target is Hannibal Thomas, who has pulled down 55 balls for 926 yards and nine scores. Brent Celek is also a player to watch in the red-zone, as he set a school record for a tight end with seven touchdown catches. As for the ground game, it is paced by Richard Hall who has rushed for 950 yards and six scores. The speedy Hall is averaging 5.1 ypc, and has the ability to break a long one at any time.

On the defensive side of the ball, Cincinnati has lacked consistency this season, but still wound up limiting its opponents to 27.8 ppg and 360.2 total ypg. The unit is allowing 160.8 ypg on the ground and 199.4 ypg through the air. However, the Bearcats have had trouble making big plays, forcing just 17 turnovers (nine interceptions) in 11 games. The team has been able to compensate for the lack of turnovers by sacking opposing quarterbacks 24 times. Trent Cole has bade the biggest impact on defense and earned First Team All-Conference USA honors after leading the Bearcats in TFLs (20.5) and sacks (7.5). Andre Frazier took some of the pressure off Cole, as he turned in nine TFLs and four sacks. Doug Monaghan is another player worth noting, as he not only led the club in total tackles (76), but in interceptions (three) as well.

Both teams rebounded from slow starts and come into this game on a bit of a roll. In what should be a hard-fought battle, the Marshall defense should make the difference.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Marshall 31, Cincinnati 24

[Blackbeard]

Thursday, December 23rd - 9:45 p.m. (et)
The Sports Network

By Gregg Xenakes, College Football Staff Writer

GAME NOTES: A couple of teams that just scraped by to become bowl eligible meet in the Las Vegas Bowl for the first time ever as the Wyoming Cowboys and the UCLA Bruins clash at Sam Boyd Stadium in Sin City. The Cowboys, members of the Mountain West Conference, opened the 2004 campaign with four wins in five tries, the lone loss coming against Texas A&M on the road. The team split its league schedule (3-3), but after defeating the Rebels of UNLV on this very same field in triple overtime (53-45) on November 6th, the Pokes went on to drop two straight versus nationally-ranked Utah and New Mexico, arguably the two best teams in the conference this season. As for the Bruins, they opened the year with a 31-20 loss to Oklahoma State and then ran off four straight victories before limping into the postseason. The team did throw a scare into top-ranked USC on December 4th though, falling by a score of just 29-24 at home. UCLA finished its Pac-10 schedule with four wins in eight tries, a step in the right direction considering the squad dropped its last four league games in 2003 before falling to Fresno State in the Silicon Valley Bowl (17-9). With that setback the Bruins fell to 12-12-1 all-time in bowl games, with the most recent win in the postseason coming in the Las Vegas Bowl in 2002, a 27-13 decision over New Mexico. Wyoming, which has gone from having just two wins overall in both 2001 and 2002 and a 4-8 mark in 2003, is 4-6 all-time in bowl games. The team's last postseason berth came at the conclusion of the regular season in 1993 when the Cowboys fell to Kansas State in the Copper Bowl, 52-17. After stringing together four consecutive bowl victories between 1951 and 1966, the team has fallen in six straight decisions.

The Cowboys had the third best scoring offense in the Mountain West this season, putting up 26.7 ppg. Throw out Utah, which was head and shoulders above the rest of the league anyway, and the Pokes were pushing Air Force for second place in that department. Wyoming's passing and rushing units were rather average in terms of the MWC, but the fact that the team was second in the conference in kickoff returns at 21.6 yards per attempt, put them in better field position more often than not. Wyoming averaged just over 134 ypg on the ground, but the group produced a mere 3.3 yards per carry and really didn't have a standout performer to turn to week in and week out. Ivan Harrison (571 yards, five touchdowns) had the most yards and scores, but he really didn't throw a scare into too many opponents. Quarterback Corey Bramlet, an All-Mountain West Conference honorable mention, was third on the team in rushing yardage and tallied four TD's, but his gains were more a result of survival than a planned attack. In the pocket Bramlet looked to be in much more control, hitting 58.3 percent of his targets for 191.1 ypg. He had 10 touchdown passes, but also 12 interceptions. Regardless of who was under center at the time, the favorite Cowboy to find downfield was Jovon Bouknight (All-MWC Second Team), who reeled in 58 passes for 968 yards and seven touchdowns, all of those numbers leading the receiving corps. Bouknight also returned kicks for the team, averaging close to 23 yards per opportunity. The team was first in the league in punt returns with an average of 16 yards per, taking two of 32 chances back to the end zone.

In the wide open Mountain West there were few teams that could brag about their defenses this year, and Wyoming was not one of them. The team gave up 25.1 ppg. The pass defense may have been surrendering 213.9 ypg, but it permitted just 13 touchdowns and was tied for second in the league in interceptions with 14. Terrance Butler led the squad with four picks, while John Wendling and Derrick Martin each registered three interceptions in 2004. Wendling ended up the leader in tackles for the Cowboys with 83 stops, of which 56 were solo stops. He was also tied for the team lead in fumble recoveries with three. Zach Morris finished with just 27 tackles in the 10 games in which he played, yet he led the squad with 12 stops for loss and four sacks. The sack total for Morris accounted for nearly a third of the team's mark, and that lack of production often cost Wyoming since opposing defenses were finding their way to the Cowboys signal-caller a total of 36 times during the regular season.

Out in the Pac-10 where they have some of the best teams in the nation, the Bruins showed up somewhere in the middle of the pack. The rushing attack for UCLA consisted of mostly four players accounting for all but a few of the team's yards this season, led by Maurice Drew and Manuel White who generated 881 and 761 yards, respectively, along with eight touchdowns apiece. Drew got most of the attention though, as he averaged six and a half yards per carry and was always a threat to break a long run. Quarterback Drew Olson, the only player on the team to complete a pass this season other than Drew (1-for-1), finished up the regular season 190-of-329 for 2,469 yards and 19 touchdowns. However, Olson was also picked off 13 times and was sacked on 17 occasions as well. Junior Taylor may have had the most catches and yards with 31 for 434 yards, but he found the end zone just one time, while tight end Marcedes Lewis turned seven of his 30 receptions into scores for the Bruins in 2004. The passing attack for UCLA always kept opponents on their heels, with as many as eight different players recording double-digit catches this year.

The concern for the Bruins at this point has to be their run defense, even though Wyoming doesn't possess a wild rushing attack on the other side of the line. UCLA allowed an average of 222.3 ypg on the ground to rank 111th out of 117 Division I-A programs, although all those yards resulted in just 18 touchdowns, a number that would put the squad in the top half of the nation's teams. The pass defense was a little less forgiving, permitting 213.2 ypg and 15 touchdowns. Spencer Havner, who appears on a number of All-America lists as the awards continue to roll in, led the Pac-10 in tackles with 125, with his 84 stops still being nine more than his closest teammate (Jarrad Page) had total stops. Havner, responsible for one of the team's four blocked shots, added a pair of interceptions, one recovered fumble and 8.5 tackles for loss. However, a knee injury has Havner perhaps giving up his linebacker spot in this game. Except for Kevin Brown (four sacks) and Bruce Davis (2.5), no one else on the roster had more than a single sack for the Bruins, with the former making close to a third of his 23 tackles behind the line of scrimmage (7.5 TFLs). Page led the group with three INTs and was responsible for two of the unit's nine forced fumbles, all while placing second behind Matthew Clark (11) in pass breakups with seven.

UCLA has experience in postseason tilts, while Wyoming is in uncharted water here. However, should Havner be unable to go because of his injury the game might be a bit closer than many would suspect.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: UCLA 31, Wyoming 21

[Blackbeard]

Msnbc

Cincinnati (6-5)
vs.
Marshall (6-5)

Date: Dec. 23

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

Location: Fort Worth, Texas

Television: ESPN

Payout: $750,000

Last result: Boise State 34, TCU 31

Bowl history/last appearance: Cincinnati 2-4 (lost 24-17 to North Texas in 2002 North Texas); Marshall 5-2 (won 38-15 over Louisville in 2002 GMAC)

Series: Marshall leads 1-0 (25-14 in '00 Motor City)

2004 results: Cincinnati; Marshall

2004 statistics: Cincinnati; Marshall

Coaches: Mark Dantonio (Cincinnati); Bob Pruett (Marshall)

What Cincinnati has to do to win: Show up for a football game. The last time the Bearcats were on the field they got torched by 70 points by Louisville. They can play some defense because they held Memphis, which isn’t bad, to 10 points.

What Marshall has to do to win: The Thundering Herd has a better defense. Remember, this is the team that lost by three at Ohio State and just 10 at Georgia. In fact, Marshall held the Bulldogs to just 13 points early in the season. Sure, Georgia did not show its full offense before the start of the SEC season, but Marshall was not flattened, either.

Opening point spread: Cincinnati by 1

Prediction: Marshall 28, Cincinnati 14.

MVP: Marshall QB Stan Hill.

[Blackbeard]

Wyoming (6-5)
vs.
UCLA (6-5)

Date: Dec. 23

Time: 9:30 p.m. ET

Location: Las Vegas

Television: ESPN

Payout: $750,000

Last result: Oregon State 55, New Mexico 14

Bowl history/last appearance: Wyoming 4-6 (lost to Kansas State 52-17 in '93 Insight.com); UCLA 12-12-1 (lost 17-9 to Fresno State in 2003 Silicon Valley Classic)

Series: First meeting

2004 results: Wyoming; UCLA

2004 statistics: Wyoming; UCLA

Coaches: Joe Glenn (Wyoming); Karl Dorrell (UCLA)

What Wyoming has to do to win: Keep their defense off the field. The Cowboys give up 400 yards a game, which means they have to outscore people to win. QB Corey Bramlet completed 58 percent of his passes for over 2,000 yards. He’ll have to work hard to keep Wyoming in this game.

What UCLA has to do to win: Get some stops on defense. The Bruins can score against Wyoming with QB Drew Olson, but they need some plays from the defense. UCLA could not beat a good team all year, so this would be somewhat of a confidence builder for the program to win this game.

Opening point spread: UCLA by 12 1/2

Prediction: UCLA 31, Wyoming 21

MVP: UCLA QB Drew Olson

[Blackbeard]

Sagarin Ratings

I calculated these with no home field advantage, check usatoday.com for full explanation of these categories:

Rating: CINN by 3.56 pts
Predictor: CINN by .39 pts
CIN SOS(strength of schedule) - 71
MAR SOS -115