Florida with Pavano (-185) over Tampa Bay with Bell
These are the D'Rays we've come to know and love, providing us with a winner yesterday in their 14-0 loss. Good chance they'll get swept by the Marlins this weekend, a team from whom they took 2 out of 3 last weekend. Bell has been less than mediocre in 5 starts with a .550 ERA. Pavano has been superb as the Marlins have won his last 7 starts. In his last 6 starts, the opponents have combined to score only 11 runs. He has a 2.78 ERA YTD, 2.96 home and 1.57 ERA L3. He has a 1.10 ERA LT against the Devil Rays. Don't usually look to lay this high a number in MLB but this combination of factors is just too good to pass up.
Over 10 Baltimore at Philadelphia
Baltimore, with their weak pitching and decent hitting has been the Major's best Over team at 46-28. Riley's last 6 starts have all produced an Over with games averaging over 12 runs. It's well documented that Philly's new ball park, Citizen's Bank Park, is a home run hitter's haven, averaging over 3 per game. Even in this week's series against the poor hitting Montreal Expos, the teams combined for 16 rpg in a 3 game set. This one could be over in the early innings.
Under 9 New York Yankees at New York Mets
Two pitchers in good current form at an Under ball park. Night games at Shea have averaged just 7.6 rpg this season, slightly below the average of 8.0 from LY. Mets' good pitching and weak hitting have made them a solid Under team in this park. Trachsel has pitched far better here (1.76 ERA) than on the road, with 6 of his 9 starts in this park going Under. Yankees' Mussina has been in solid form of late, allowing just 18 BR in L4 starts with a 21/2 K/BB ratio. All signs point to a solid Under 9 tonight.
So far so good....been up most the night...got pinched nerve in my back and the flu...but no problem got good Doctor who put me on some heavy meds...hell ths is better samoking shit and legal too....plus I do not go back to wrk until Tuesday
MLB Los Angeles vs. Anaheim [2004-07-02]
1 Unit on Anaheim Angels -130 (or better)
Reason: The Anaheim Angels win for Aaron Sele. Don't believe me? Sele is 4-0 on the year in 9 starts, and his team is 8-1 in all of those starts. He also has a great history against the Dodgers, at 5-0 in the last 7 years with a 1.80 ERA, i'd say he has LA's number. Kaz Ishii for LA, despite a 9-3 record, hasn't really pitched consistently at all, he's got a 5.24 ERA on the road and his WHIP is 1.5+. Ishii also has a history against his opposing team, only it's not as impressive, he's 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA lifetime versus the Angels. Another thing I like about this game is that both teams seem to rally behind their starters as far as the bats go. Now, I would much rather have the Angels lineup behind me than maybe any other lineup in the league. Also note that the Angels are 5-1 over the last three years at Anaheim in this series.
Sport: MLB
Game: Blue Jays @ Expos in Puerto Rico
Date/Time: 7/2/20047:00PM EST
Pick: Over
Reason: All of a sudden, Montreal has started to hit the baseball. The lowest scoring team in the majors by a wide margin in 2004, the Expos have produced five runs or more in each of their last six games, their best offensive stretch of the season. Brad Wilkerson has hit four homers in his last five games; Jose Vidro has put together an 18 game hitting streak; while Orlando Cabrera, Carl Everett, Tony Batista and Nick Johnson have all started to contribute after horrible starts. While the Expos were an Under machine early in the season, they’ve been a consistent Over team in recent weeks: 5-1 to the Over in their last six games and 11-5-1 to the Over in their last 17. Facing a mediocre starter from Triple A making his first MLB start, this Expos offense should continue to produce. David Bush was 6-6 with the Syracuse Skychiefs, with an ERA over 4, not the type of numbers that would have merited a call-up to the big leagues if the Blue Jays hadn’t been desperate for starting pitching help. But Toronto is hitting the ball as well as they have all year themselves. The Blue Jays pounded out 14 runs against Tampa Bay last night, and they scored 17 and 16 runs in their previous two series, averaging well over five runs per game. Throw in the fact that this series has trended heavily to the Over for the past four seasons (13-4-1), and we can reasonably expect another high scoring game today at Hiram Bithorn Stadium in Puerto Rico.
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