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**StarDust Bum** · 08-05-2021, 11:26 AM

New York Giants 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Time to Shine for Danny Dimes

The Giants' defense was sneaky good in 2020, but success in 2021 will be the result of their offense and QB Daniel Jones. Will Danny Dimes finally put it together with a new No. 1 wideout and a healthy cast? Check out our New York Giants betting preview.

You know things are bad when New York football fans are more excited about the Jets than the Giants.

The G-Men won six games in a down year for the division last season, the jury is still out on Daniel Jones being the franchise QB, and Saquon Barkley has all the durability of a pair of Dollar Store flip-flops.

Thanks to an under-the-radar defense, New York was a betting bright spot at 9-5 ATS when getting the points. Can the offense do enough to keep those underdog cash-outs coming?

Check out our 2021 New York Giants NFL betting preview.

New York Giants futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +10,000
To Win Conference +50,000
To Win Division +450
Season Win Total O/U 7.5 (Under -120)
To Make Playoffs Yes +220 / No -260
Best futures bet: Under 7.5 wins (-120)

Let’s say the Giants split their NFC East games, giving them three wins. They have four winnable home games against non-divisional foes (Denver, Atlanta, Carolina and Las Vegas) which, if split, would be five total wins. That means New York would need to squeeze three victories out of the remaining contests.

Those leftover games feature a trip to New Orleans, a homestand versus the Rams, visits to last year’s Super Bowl teams (Chiefs and Bucs), roadies at Miami and L.A. Chargers (Weeks 13 and 14), and at Chicago… in January. The Giants are 3-7 SU on the road versus non-divisional opponents the past two seasons and if they don’t split those NFC East run-ins, at the very least, eight wins is a pipe dream.

New York Giants betting overview

What will win bets: Defense

The Giants’ defense was sneaky good in 2020. New York allowed just 22.3 points per game and while the stop unit didn’t get the same shot in the arm of talent as the offense, this group will improve in Year 2 under coordinator Patrick Graham.

The G-Men didn’t give up many home run plays, allowing only 43 passes of 20 yards or more, and ranked ninth in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.1). For one of the lighter blitzing teams in the league, New York still collected 40 sacks and a solid secondary forces passers to hang around in the pocket a little longer than they should.

What will lose bets: Quarterback

“Danny Dimes” is on a short leash in Year 3 for Big Blue. With the addition of 6-foot-4 WR Kenny Golladay, reliable TEs in Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph, and a healthy-ish Saquon Barkley as the ultimate checkdown, there’s no excuse for Jones to have as many mistakes as he’s had the first two years (22 INTs, completion percentage of 62, 29 fumbles).

The offensive line allowed 50 sacks in 2020 (second-most in the NFL) and lugged a pass block win rate of 31 percent – dead last. The bulk of those bodies return for 2021 – minus Kevin Zeitler but add Joe Looney – which doesn’t bode well for Jones’ well-being. But don’t sweat Big Apple bettors, behind him is backup QB… Mike Glennon? Oh boy.

New York Giants game-by-game odds

The 2021 lookahead lines have the Giants set as favorites in five games this upcoming season, with five other games boasting spreads between +1 and +3. They own the 25th toughest slate (.474) in terms of strength of schedule.

New York is getting more than a field goal in seven of its dozen games as an underdog. Six of those games come away from MetLife Stadium and in two years since Daniel Jones was drafted, the G-Men are 9-3 ATS when catching 3.5 points or more on the road, including a 5-1 ATS mark last season.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 vs Denver +1 42.5

2 @ Washington +3 43

3 vs Atlanta -2.5 48.5

4 @ New Orleans +5.5 47.5

5 @ Dallas +5.5 48.5

6 vs L.A. Rams +3.5 45.5

7 vs Carolina -3 46.5

8 @ Kansas City +10 49

9 vs Las Vegas -1.5 47.5

10 BYE

11 @ Tampa Bay +10 50.5

12 vs Philadelphia -3 46.5

13 @ Miami +3.5 45.5

14 @ L.A. Chargers +6 47

15 vs Dallas +1 47

16 @ Philadelphia +1.5 46

17 @ Chicago +2 42

18 vs Washington -1.5 42.5

Early season forecast

The Giants' offense gets a real workout in the first two games of 2021, hosting Denver and visiting Washington. Given how nasty those pass rushes will be, can Jones survive to see the Falcons in Week 3? The G-Men have won just one game in the opening three weeks of football over the past two seasons (2-4 ATS).

New York kicks off the season against an AFC West foe but couldn’t even catch a break from the schedule-makers, who slotted this non-conference clash as a 4:25 p.m. ET start. This spread opened pick’em but early play against New York has bumped this line to Giants +1. New York has had big trouble in non-conference games (see trends below) and as an extra kick in the crotch, the NYG have won just two Week 1 contests since 2010 (2-9 SU/3-8 ATS).

The Giants catch a field goal in the nation’s capital in Week 2. New York has dominated Washington for a while now, including beating up on the WFT on their own turf with a 14-7 SU record and 13-8 ATS count in D.C. over the past 21 seasons.

The Falcons wander into the Meadowlands as 2.5-point dogs in Week 3. This game has a total of 48.5 points – one of only four Giants games in 2021 with a number of 48 or higher. Since Jones took over at QB in 2019, New York is an even 4-4 Over/Under in those games with totals of 48 or more but an intriguing 6-2 ATS when pegged with a higher O/U.

Spot bet

Week 6: vs L.A. Rams (+3.5)

At first glance, you may be wondering “what gives?” when it comes to this relatively short spread with the mighty Rams visiting the Giants in Week 6. However, this is a gruesome situational spot for Los Angeles. Let us count the ways…

Not only does L.A. have to cross the country for a 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT) but it’s playing its second straight road game (schedule spot!) off a TNF rivalry in Seattle (letdown spot!) and has an emotionally charged matchup with Matt Stafford’s former club Detroit (and former QB Jared Goff) in Week 7 (lookahead spot!).

This spread will likely grow before Week 6 rolls around, so if you’re buying Big Blue here, wait for more points. But the bookies are definitely tipping their pitch with this 3.5-point lookahead line.

Totals tip

New York completed the 2020 calendar with a 3-13 Over/Under record – the top Under bet in all the land. An underrated defense and injury-thinned offense get all the credit for those low-scoring results.

As mentioned above, oddsmakers aren’t expecting many fireworks from the Giants’ 2021 outings and have only four contests lugging totals of 48 points or higher. There are four sub-44 numbers on the board as well.

On paper, this offense is improved. But knowing Jones’ limitations, the turnstile O-line, and Jason Garrett’s play-calling, the G-Men may keep it short and sweet. The 2020 attack produced just 36 passing plays of 20-plus yards (second-fewest) and 3,189 intended air yards from Jones (23rd). Better put the coffee on to stay awake during Giants games. Zzzzzzz…

Star power props: Saquon Barkley, RB
Player prop Odds to win
Comeback Player of the Year +700
Rushing yards leader +1,600
Rushing yards total 1,175.5 (Over -112)
Best prop: Under 1,175.5 rushing yards (-112)

This prop is dependent on two things: Barkley being healthy enough to start the season and remaining healthy during the 2021 campaign. One of those things is a toss-up with Barkley’s rehab from a torn ACL progressing slowly and the other doesn’t seem probable given the running back’s injury issues the past two seasons.

Other factors working against the Over for this prop are just how good Barkley is as a pass catcher and how poor the offensive line will be. Add to that the fact New York will be playing from behind a lot, and there’s not much room for the rush. Barkley had 1,307 yards on the ground in 16 games as a rookie and 1,003 yards in 13 games in Year 2. This current total seems like a stretch.

Trend to know
New York is a wretched 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS versus AFC opponents the past two seasons. Thanks to the new 17-game schedule, the Giants get an additional non-conference fight at Miami in Week 13 on top of a four-game set versus the AFC West.

Giants’ non-conference games

Week 1: vs Denver +1
Week 8: @ Kansas City +10
Week 9: vs Las Vegas -1.5
Week 13: @ Miami +3.5
Week 14: @ L.A. Chargers +6

**StarDust Bum** · 08-05-2021, 11:32 AM

New York Giants 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Time to Shine for Danny Dimes

The Giants' defense was sneaky good in 2020, but success in 2021 will be the result of their offense and QB Daniel Jones. Will Danny Dimes finally put it together with a new No. 1 wideout and a healthy cast? Check out our New York Giants betting preview.

You know things are bad when New York football fans are more excited about the Jets than the Giants.

The G-Men won six games in a down year for the division last season, the jury is still out on Daniel Jones being the franchise QB, and Saquon Barkley has all the durability of a pair of Dollar Store flip-flops.

Thanks to an under-the-radar defense, New York was a betting bright spot at 9-5 ATS when getting the points. Can the offense do enough to keep those underdog cash-outs coming?

Check out our 2021 New York Giants NFL betting preview.

New York Giants futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +10,000
To Win Conference +50,000
To Win Division +450
Season Win Total O/U 7.5 (Under -120)
To Make Playoffs Yes +220 / No -260
Best futures bet: Under 7.5 wins (-120)

Let’s say the Giants split their NFC East games, giving them three wins. They have four winnable home games against non-divisional foes (Denver, Atlanta, Carolina and Las Vegas) which, if split, would be five total wins. That means New York would need to squeeze three victories out of the remaining contests.

Those leftover games feature a trip to New Orleans, a homestand versus the Rams, visits to last year’s Super Bowl teams (Chiefs and Bucs), roadies at Miami and L.A. Chargers (Weeks 13 and 14), and at Chicago… in January. The Giants are 3-7 SU on the road versus non-divisional opponents the past two seasons and if they don’t split those NFC East run-ins, at the very least, eight wins is a pipe dream.

New York Giants betting overview

What will win bets: Defense

The Giants’ defense was sneaky good in 2020. New York allowed just 22.3 points per game and while the stop unit didn’t get the same shot in the arm of talent as the offense, this group will improve in Year 2 under coordinator Patrick Graham.

The G-Men didn’t give up many home run plays, allowing only 43 passes of 20 yards or more, and ranked ninth in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.1). For one of the lighter blitzing teams in the league, New York still collected 40 sacks and a solid secondary forces passers to hang around in the pocket a little longer than they should.

What will lose bets: Quarterback

“Danny Dimes” is on a short leash in Year 3 for Big Blue. With the addition of 6-foot-4 WR Kenny Golladay, reliable TEs in Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph, and a healthy-ish Saquon Barkley as the ultimate checkdown, there’s no excuse for Jones to have as many mistakes as he’s had the first two years (22 INTs, completion percentage of 62, 29 fumbles).

The offensive line allowed 50 sacks in 2020 (second-most in the NFL) and lugged a pass block win rate of 31 percent – dead last. The bulk of those bodies return for 2021 – minus Kevin Zeitler but add Joe Looney – which doesn’t bode well for Jones’ well-being. But don’t sweat Big Apple bettors, behind him is backup QB… Mike Glennon? Oh boy.

New York Giants game-by-game odds

The 2021 lookahead lines have the Giants set as favorites in five games this upcoming season, with five other games boasting spreads between +1 and +3. They own the 25th toughest slate (.474) in terms of strength of schedule.

New York is getting more than a field goal in seven of its dozen games as an underdog. Six of those games come away from MetLife Stadium and in two years since Daniel Jones was drafted, the G-Men are 9-3 ATS when catching 3.5 points or more on the road, including a 5-1 ATS mark last season.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 vs Denver +1 42.5

2 @ Washington +3 43

3 vs Atlanta -2.5 48.5

4 @ New Orleans +5.5 47.5

5 @ Dallas +5.5 48.5

6 vs L.A. Rams +3.5 45.5

7 vs Carolina -3 46.5

8 @ Kansas City +10 49

9 vs Las Vegas -1.5 47.5

10 BYE

11 @ Tampa Bay +10 50.5

12 vs Philadelphia -3 46.5

13 @ Miami +3.5 45.5

14 @ L.A. Chargers +6 47

15 vs Dallas +1 47

16 @ Philadelphia +1.5 46

17 @ Chicago +2 42

18 vs Washington -1.5 42.5

Early season forecast

The Giants' offense gets a real workout in the first two games of 2021, hosting Denver and visiting Washington. Given how nasty those pass rushes will be, can Jones survive to see the Falcons in Week 3? The G-Men have won just one game in the opening three weeks of football over the past two seasons (2-4 ATS).

New York kicks off the season against an AFC West foe but couldn’t even catch a break from the schedule-makers, who slotted this non-conference clash as a 4:25 p.m. ET start. This spread opened pick’em but early play against New York has bumped this line to Giants +1. New York has had big trouble in non-conference games (see trends below) and as an extra kick in the crotch, the NYG have won just two Week 1 contests since 2010 (2-9 SU/3-8 ATS).

The Giants catch a field goal in the nation’s capital in Week 2. New York has dominated Washington for a while now, including beating up on the WFT on their own turf with a 14-7 SU record and 13-8 ATS count in D.C. over the past 21 seasons.

The Falcons wander into the Meadowlands as 2.5-point dogs in Week 3. This game has a total of 48.5 points – one of only four Giants games in 2021 with a number of 48 or higher. Since Jones took over at QB in 2019, New York is an even 4-4 Over/Under in those games with totals of 48 or more but an intriguing 6-2 ATS when pegged with a higher O/U.

Spot bet

Week 6: vs L.A. Rams (+3.5)

At first glance, you may be wondering “what gives?” when it comes to this relatively short spread with the mighty Rams visiting the Giants in Week 6. However, this is a gruesome situational spot for Los Angeles. Let us count the ways…

Not only does L.A. have to cross the country for a 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT) but it’s playing its second straight road game (schedule spot!) off a TNF rivalry in Seattle (letdown spot!) and has an emotionally charged matchup with Matt Stafford’s former club Detroit (and former QB Jared Goff) in Week 7 (lookahead spot!).

This spread will likely grow before Week 6 rolls around, so if you’re buying Big Blue here, wait for more points. But the bookies are definitely tipping their pitch with this 3.5-point lookahead line.

Totals tip

New York completed the 2020 calendar with a 3-13 Over/Under record – the top Under bet in all the land. An underrated defense and injury-thinned offense get all the credit for those low-scoring results.

As mentioned above, oddsmakers aren’t expecting many fireworks from the Giants’ 2021 outings and have only four contests lugging totals of 48 points or higher. There are four sub-44 numbers on the board as well.

On paper, this offense is improved. But knowing Jones’ limitations, the turnstile O-line, and Jason Garrett’s play-calling, the G-Men may keep it short and sweet. The 2020 attack produced just 36 passing plays of 20-plus yards (second-fewest) and 3,189 intended air yards from Jones (23rd). Better put the coffee on to stay awake during Giants games. Zzzzzzz…

Star power props: Saquon Barkley, RB
Player prop Odds to win
Comeback Player of the Year +700
Rushing yards leader +1,600
Rushing yards total 1,175.5 (Over -112)
Best prop: Under 1,175.5 rushing yards (-112)

This prop is dependent on two things: Barkley being healthy enough to start the season and remaining healthy during the 2021 campaign. One of those things is a toss-up with Barkley’s rehab from a torn ACL progressing slowly and the other doesn’t seem probable given the running back’s injury issues the past two seasons.

Other factors working against the Over for this prop are just how good Barkley is as a pass catcher and how poor the offensive line will be. Add to that the fact New York will be playing from behind a lot, and there’s not much room for the rush. Barkley had 1,307 yards on the ground in 16 games as a rookie and 1,003 yards in 13 games in Year 2. This current total seems like a stretch.

Trend to know
New York is a wretched 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS versus AFC opponents the past two seasons. Thanks to the new 17-game schedule, the Giants get an additional non-conference fight at Miami in Week 13 on top of a four-game set versus the AFC West.

Giants’ non-conference games

Week 1: vs Denver +1
Week 8: @ Kansas City +10
Week 9: vs Las Vegas -1.5
Week 13: @ Miami +3.5
Week 14: @ L.A. Chargers +6

**StarDust Bum** · 08-05-2021, 11:33 AM

Cowboys vs Steelers Hall of Fame Game Picks and Predictions: (Preseason) Football is Back

The NFL season begins on Thursday with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton. While the stars may sit out, we've still got plenty of betting action. Check out our full picks and predictions as the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers clash in the annual game.

There are certain types of football bettors who get down on the NFL preseason: sharps, the informed, and football-starved action junkies.

Those folks get their first taste of exhibition pigskin in two years with the NFL Hall of Fame Game between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers.

The chaos and unpredictability of the preseason levels the playing field between books and bettors, and is a rare time in which coaches will openly tell you what they’re going to do and who’s going to it. You just have to listen.

Here are our free NFL betting picks and predictions for Cowboys vs. Steelers in the 2021 Hall of Fame Game.

Cowboys vs Steelers game info
• Location: Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium, Canton, OH
• Date: Thursday, August 5, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers betting preview
Weather

Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium

76.77 ?F
Humidity: 55 %
Wind: 3.15 mph
P.O.P.: 1 %

Hourly Forecast

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key injuries
Cowboys: Dak Prescott QB (Out), Mitch Hyatt OT (Out).
Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger QB (Out), Demarcus Christmas DT (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Steelers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 preseason games (2017 to 2019). Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Steelers.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Step No. 1 in betting preseason football is to know who the quarterbacks are, and not just the QB1s. You’ve got to look way down the depth chart to see which randoms will be under center in the fourth quarter.

As with most Hall of Fame Games, don’t expect to see many – if any – first-stringers. You sure as hell aren’t going to see Dak Prescott or Ben Roethlisberger out there on Thursday.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has said he’s starting with Mason Rudolph and will play Dwayne Haskins at least a few minutes to end the first half. That leaves mop-up duty to Josh Dobbs in the final 30 minutes. Rudolph is by far the best QB on the field, with nine regular season starts under his belt in just two years.

The Cowboys need to take a long look at their backups, given Prescott’s tender ankle entering 2021. McCarthy hasn’t announced his QB rotation for Thursday as of this writing but if reps and buzz out of camp are any indications, Garrett Gilbert - who showed flashes of brilliance in a lone November start versus the Steelers (funnily enough) last season - could be the starter. Cooper Rush and Ben DiNucci are also duking it out for second-team reps at camp and will likely see plenty of snaps in the first and second half versus Pittsburgh.

The X-factor for this matchup – at least in the first half - could be Steelers’ rookie RB Najee Harris, who is expected to play Thursday as well as in Pittsburgh’s other three preseason tilts. The Alabama product was the 24th pick in the draft and does damage on the ground and through the air. He and third-stringer Anthony McFarland Jr., who has impressed in camp, have an opportunity for plenty of touches with fellow RB Benny Snell Jr. nursing an injury.

While Tomlin is encouraging exhibition work for some of his youngsters and backups, McCarthy is playing it cool after training camp was littered with injuries. The former Green Bay head coach was 27-25 SU and 27-22-3 ATS in preseason games with the Packers (2006 to 2018) while Tomlin owns a 31-23 SU record and 25-27-2 ATS count in tune-up tilts since taking over the reins in Pittsburgh back in 2007.

PREDICTION: Steelers -1.5 (-110)

The total for the Hall of Fame Game opened at 34 and has dropped to 33 points, given six of the eight HoF Games since 2010 (three were canceled) have played Under the number. Like way Under.

Participating teams have combined to score an average of just 23.25 points in those games versus an average closing total of 35.06, leaving lots of headroom for those taking the Under.

While preseason trends are about as reliable as your drunken buddy’s promise to drive you to the airport in the morning, there is something said for the quality of offense versus defense in these early exhibitions.

Successful scoring attacks need timing and chemistry – something that’s not there in August and definitely not easy to come by when coaches are constantly plugging in second, third and fourth-string players. Defense is a much more instinctual part of the game, reading and reacting.

The point production can take a tumble in the second half of the Hall of Fame Game, when teams reach down into the Midnight Zone of the depth chart. An average of 12.5 points per second half has been scored since 2010, including 10 or fewer second-half points in four of those contests.

There could be some flash in the first half, with Rudolph and Haskins slinging it and Dallas going pass-heavy to get a good look at their QB2 options, but expect an unwatchable second half of Hall of Fame Game football.

PREDICTION: Under 33 (-110)

Cowboys vs Steelers betting card
Steelers -1.5 (-110)
Under 33 (-110)
Picks made on 8/4/2021 at 3:00 p.m. ET

**StarDust Bum** · 08-05-2021, 11:39 AM

NFL Power Rankings: Don't Rhule Out a Bounce Back For Darnold in Carolina

Adam Chernoff reveals his NFL preseason power rankings, one team at a time — starting with the worst teams in the league and moving towards the cream of the crop.

Power rankings are an important part of NFL betting, used not only by bettors but also by bookmakers when setting NFL odds. They're also a great way to prepare for an upcoming season, and with kickoff just over a month away, Adam Chernoff is ready to reveal his preseason rankings.

A new team will be revealed each day as we get closer to the season opener. Listen to a full audio analysis of each team on The Simple Handicap podcast or check back here every day for a written version.

NFL power rankings

After a ghostly end to his Jets tenure, former third-overall pick Sam Darnold looks for redemption with Matt Rhule and Joe Brady in Carolina. He'll have the best collection of weapons ever at his disposal — but will he actually prove he's a legitimate starting quarterback? (Team rating in parentheses).

25. Carolina Panthers (32)
26. Philadelphia Eagles (30)
27. New York Giants (30)
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (28)
29. Cincinnati Bengals (27)
30. New York Jets (25)
31. Detroit Lions (20)
32. Houston Texans (15)

25. Carolina Panthers
Rating: 32

Win total: 6.5 (Over -111)

My ratings will always skew well-coached teams higher in situations where roster talent is similar.

The Carolina Panthers are rated higher than the Eagles, Giants, Bengals, and Jaguars because the coaching staff is superior — even though the roster makeup and talent level are not. Unlike other teams within this lower tier of the league, I look at the Panthers as a team that can grow and has some leeway.

This is not a team where everything must go right for seventeen games to hit the Over on the win total. Sam Darnold will be the biggest question mark, but there is reason for optimism. There is enough data and reason to believe that Adam Gase is an anchor for any QB that plays within his system. In addition to never supporting Darnold with coaching, the Jets failed to give him playmakers either.

Jamison Crowder, Braxton Berrios, Breshad Perriman, and Frank Gore are a far cry from Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrance Marshall, who will support Darnold this season.

There is also reason to believe that Darnold will never pan out as a pro quarterback. Ranking 38th of 39 qualified starters throwing from a clean pocket in 2020 is one of several concerning data points, but putting him with Joe Brady and these weapons could be exactly what is needed to get him to an (at least) average NFL starter.

If first-round draft pick Jaycee Horn pans out in the secondary, the Panthers could quietly field a sneaky-good defense too. The front seven is projected to be a Top-10 unit entering the season and just an extra bit of support in the back end could be all that is needed to make this a Top-3 overall unit in the league.

That extra defensive support will go a long way for the Panthers, who face the eighth-most difficult schedule of opposing offenses in 2021 and will likely have a slow start putting points on the scoreboard with Darnold entering the new system.

Bet the Under:

The disappointment we saw from Darnold in New York might just be who he ultimately is

One of the worst offensive lines in the league will give a new QB little support

All three division opponents improved and facing a very difficult schedule overall

Bet the Over:

One of the most underrated coaching units in the league that can get a lot out of this roster

Terrific skill position players to support Darnold in the offensive system

Quietly projected to have a Top-10 secondary

26. Philadelphia Eagles
Rating: 30

Win total: 6.5 (Over -154)

The Philadelphia Eagles are the team that will consistently sound better than they are.

The roster is filled with household names and young explosive talent on both sides of the football: playmakers like Miles Sanders, Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert, and Zach Ertz. Defensive forces like Nick Barnett, Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Brandon Graham, and Darius Slay. The name value is all there.

The three things that are not there? Coaching staff, quarterback, and depth.

The trio of Nick Sirianni, Shane Steichen, and Jonathan Gannon sounds great... but there is a ton of uncertainty. In his time with Indianapolis, Sirianni never called offensive plays — despite being the offensive coordinator. Now he oversees the entire playbook for this young roster.

Steichen rose from obscurity to stardom with the Chargers after one season of inheriting Justin Herbert and now he takes a big step back to a much different style quarterback in Jalen Hurts, while Gannon is one of the most underrated coaches in all of football but now takes over one of the three worst secondaries in the league.

How quickly can all three of these guys find answers, if at all? Hurts ranked dead last of 38 qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage above expectation in 2020 and consistently put the ball in harm's way. How can anyone be certain this is the QB of the future? As for the roster, it features some great names in starting roles.

However, move to the second-string options and the talent level falls off a cliff. It is not going to take an injury-decimated season like the one Philly experienced in 2020 to derail this roster. This team is going to have to find a way to stay healthy the entire season because the depth chart is extremely thin.

The Eagles face one of the easiest schedules in the NFL so there is room for optimism, but there are too many things that can go wrong to rank them any higher.

Bet the Under:

Three new coaches, in new roles, making the adjustment to work with a much different system than they are used to

Jalen Hurts ranked among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last season in accuracy metrics

One of the worst secondaries in the league

Bet the Over:

Strong in both sides of the trenches, which can go a long way in accelerating the growth of a team

They face one of the five easiest schedules in 2021

Also: check out Jason Logan's Eagles season betting preview.

27. New York Giants
Rating: 30

Win total: 7.5 (Under -149)

It is a bit weird to think about... but do the New York Giants have the second-best quarterback in the NFC East?

Everyone is raving over the Washington Football Team, but Ryan Fitzpatrick was only starting in Miami because he was better than Tua Tagovailoa — not exactly a high bar. Jalen Hurts completed just 52 percent of his passes in his starts last year. Dak Prescott is back, and takes the top rank, but Jones as second is a fair argument to make.

This season he is surrounded with a (hopefully) healthy Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Kenny Golladay... this has the potential to be a Top-15 offense. The defense is built the right way — back to front — with Adoree Jackson, Logan Ryan, Jabril Peppers, and James Bradberry making up what could be a Top-10 secondary. The pieces are there... But is the sideline support?

The Giants are going to have to find a way to win despite their coaching staff. The combination of Joe Judge/Jason Garrett in 2020 left far more questions than answers and already in the preseason, they seem unable to wrangle the team. The schedule does the Giants few favors, as they face the 10th-most difficult schedule in the league.

It is a big if, but, if the coaching staff can stay out of their way, the Giants have the pieces to contend in a weak NFC East.

Bet the Under:

The coaching staff: it is extremely difficult to tie money up with Judge/Garrett long term

The offensive line is projected to be one of the five worst in the league

Bet the Over:

Strong skill position players across the entire offense, highlighted by the addition of Kenny Golladay

Reinforced the secondary in the offseason, giving it the potential to be a Top-10 unit

Also: check out Jason Logan's Giants season betting preview.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars
Rating: 28

Win total: 6.5 (Under -120)

There are a lot of symmetries between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Bengals entering 2021. Jacksonville gets the slightest rating bump by virtue of an easier strength of schedule. Cincinnati plays in the most difficult division in football, while Jacksonville finds itself in one of the weakest. Overall they are slated to face the fourth easiest schedule in the league, with the most favorable stretch at the beginning of the year from Weeks 1-6, when the Jags are favored or, at worst, 2.5-point underdogs in each game.

The weakness of the Jags is defense, which catches a break in the early season. They open against Tyrod Taylor and Teddy Bridgewater — neither of whom are poised to threaten deep downfield — but it ultimately will be the offense that will propel this team close to its win total.

Trevor Lawrence is as sure of a prospect that we have seen since Andrew Luck, while Travis Etienne and James Robinson form one of the best young backfield duos in the league. Plus D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenault are three great fits for new head coach Urban Meyer's spread offense.

Although both sides of the trenches need improving, if Lawrence can use his mobility, it can ease the pressure that will inevitably be allowed off the edge. The team has a ton of weapons and a lot of promise inside of a weak division.

If the defense can improve and just play near league average, the Jags could be a 7-8 win team.

Bet the Under:

New and unproven coaching staff

The worst secondary in 2020 did little to improve in 2021

Two of the worst tackles on the offensive line

Bet the Over:

Extremely talented weapons around a highly regarded prospect at QB

One of the five easiest schedules in NFL

Divisional opponents all taking a step back

29. Cincinnati Bengals
Rating: 27

Win total: 6.5 (Under -118)

This is it for Zac Taylor. The third-year head coach is arguably the worst in the NFL, but this season he has no excuse. Joe Burrow is back - and healthy. The receiving group is loaded with the addition of first-rounder Ja'Marr Chase to the duo of Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. In the backfield, Joe Mixon is healthy coming into the season and set to be the feature back.

Everything across the board is set for this offense to succeed. It all comes down to two things: Can Taylor nail the play calling, and how long will the offensive line hold up?

Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive line was among the worst in the league, and this season it is set to be no better. The prospect of Burrow coming off a devastating injury and frequently being in the line of fire could be a huge concern. The gamble was made clear. The team had the chance to draft the top offensive line prospect in Penei Sewell but elected to take Chase and continue to load up on weapons. With everyone in place, it is all on Taylor to take advantage.

The neglect to the trenches existed on the other side of the line too. During the draft and offseason, they provided no help to the front seven. The pass rush for Cincinnati is nonexistent and projects to be a bottom-five unit in 2021. With a below-average secondary behind a lack of pass rush, pressure will be on the offense to find the scoreboard consistently. The positive outlook is driven by the potential offensive output, but against the fifth most difficult projected schedule in the league, it is difficult to see the Bengals consistently scoring enough to be much else than a 6- or 7-win team.

Bet the Under:

Playing in the most difficult division in football and the fifth most difficult schedule overall

No improvements to either side of the trenches with huge weaknesses on the OL and DL

Bet the Over:

Burrow and the receiving group is one of the best offensive units in the league

Mixon as the feature back gives Zac Taylor every option needed to succeed with play-calling

30. New York Jets
Rating: 25

Win total: 6 (Under -125)

It is so easy to chalk up doubt just because "it's the New York Jets" but this season feels different. Robert Saleh comes from a successful tenure working under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco and excels in getting the most effort out of young players — of which the Jets have plenty.

Mike Lafleur is in at offensive coordinator and brings with him a West Coast passing scheme which bodes well for taking the burden off a rookie QB. Jeff Ulbrich is in place on the defensive side to install a classic Seattle Cover 3 unit. Sam Darnold is out, and second-overall pick Zach Wilson steps in with a few new offensive weapons around him. There is a reason for optimism!

Rather than the downside falling on the coaching and personnel, it most likely falls in a lack of talent — or being one year early. Even with the addition of Corey Davis, the Jets are still missing a bonafide number one receiver. The middle of the offensive line has a lot of uncertainty, which is where Wilson will need it most.

As much success as Saleh has had with the San Francisco defense, the Jets are without the strong physical corners needed to make the scheme work.

Bet the Under:

Missing key personnel for the specific offensive and defensive schemes that the new coaching staff will implement

Offensive line issues could magnify the growing pains for a rookie QB

Secondary did not improve in the offseason

Bet the Over:

Saleh is a terrific head coach to run a team with as many young players as the Jets

Above-average ease of projected schedule on both sides of the ball

31. Detroit Lions
Rating: 20

Win total: 5 (Under -115)

It is difficult to envision a scenario where the Detroit Lions can overcome the amount of talent they lost in the offseason. Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Jones are all gone. In their place steps Jared Goff, Tyrell Williams, and Breshad Perriman. Where is the offensive output going to come from!?

Goff on his own feels like a disaster waiting to happen. Throughout the duration of his career he relied heavily on Sean McVay to do the play calling and reading of opposing defenses for him. McVay is one of the most tactically sound coaches in the league and was able to shoulder the burden to get the most out of Goff for four season. It is unlikely that new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn will be able to assist Goff in the same manner McVay did — considering the endless criticism of his in-game decision making.

Is new head coach and ultimate "football guy" Dan Campbell the right person to get the most out of this patched together roster? Based on quotes and pressers to date, every sign points to no. If there is reason for optimism it can be found in the trenches. Decker, Ragnow, and Sewell make up a top ten offensive line to give Goff time to throw and Swift room to run. The return of Trey Flowers and additions to the interior of the front seven should bring the Lions pass rush up to league average, which is a huge improvement on seasons past. But how much will the talent up front on both sides be wasted by a lack of talent at skill positions?

Bet the Under:

New head coach, offensive and defensive coordinator all ranked in the bottom five respectively

Goff, Perriman, and Williams are no replacement for Stafford, Golladay, and Jones

Goff without McVay is an enormous concern moving forward

Bet the Over:

Strong offensive line play can give Goff enough time and mask some issues at the skill positions

Goff playing all home games in a dome benefits his ability to throw downfield when protected

The betting market is likely discrediting the team for how poorly it was defensively in 2020 — it will be improved overall in 2021

32. Houston Texans
Rating: 15

Win total: 4.5 (Under -163)

This is baffling. After four weeks last season, the Houston Texans gave their fan base what they wanted — fire Bill O’Brien! The talented roster was free from the all-ruling GM and head coach at last. Fast forward to training camp this season and the Texans are in another unimaginable situation.

Deshaun Watson’s allegation laden offseason will either keep him off the field in 2021 or land him in an inevitable trade situation. The new GM Nick Caserio signed 36 veterans to deals resulting in 70% roster turnover. There were no improvements made to the defense that struggled in 2020 either. Lovie Smith is in as defensive coordinator and has immediately made changes. The 3-4 base unit led by J. J. Watt is no more. In its place is a 4-3 base that features 13 recent roster additions competing for time in six of the front seven positions. The secondary stays intact from 2020, but even that is not a sign for optimism as the Texans finished 30th in pass success rate defense and face one of the three most difficult projected schedules in 2021.

Houston has a bevy of talented running backs, but how much will they contribute? The team is an underdog in all 17 games this season and will not keep opponents off the scoreboard. If the Texans are constantly trailing and cannot stop the run, when will they have time to keep the ball on the ground? David Culley and Tyrod Taylor made the playoffs with a weak roster in 2017, but just winning five or six games this season seems like a stretch.

Bet the Under:

70% roster turnover between 2020-21

Likely loss of Watson is irreplaceable

No improvements to a terrible defense

Bet the Over:

Six games against AFC South teams, all of which have big question marks of their own

David Culley and Tyrod Taylor did take a below-average roster to playoffs in 2017

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2021, 11:41 PM

Friday’s Den: Trends for AFC teams

Ravens:
— Last six years, they’re 1-3 in playoff games.
— Won/covered last five season openers
— Since 2013, they’re 7-3 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last four years, they’re 9-1-2 ATS as road underdogs.

Bills:
— Last two years, they’re 23-9 SU, their only consecutive winning seasons in last 20 years.
— Last three years, they’re 10-4-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last four years , they’re 11-4-2 ATS on natural grass.
— Bills are 10-2-1 ATS in last 13 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Bengals:
— Last 20 years, they’re 0-7 in playoff games.
— Last five years, they’re 25-53-2 SU
— Last five years, they’re 9-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Bengals were favored twice in last 16 home games.

Browns:
— Last years was their first winning season since 2007.
— Since 2013, they’re 2-9 ATS as road favorites.
— Browns are 15-34-1 ATS in last 50 games coming off a loss.
— Last six years, they’re 9-15 ATS vs NFC teams.

Broncos:
— Won Super Bowl after 2015 season; they’re 32-48 since then.
— Last four years, they’re 3-8-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2016, Denver is 10-18-2 ATS vs AFC West opponents.
— Last four years, Broncos are 9-13 ATS coming off a win.

Texans:
— Were over .500 in 5 of O’Brien’s 7 years as head coach.
— Last four years, they’re 8-14 ATS as home favorites.
— Last eight years, they’re 9-14-1 ATS in AFC South home games.
— Last ten years, Texans are 4-6 in playoff games.

Colts:
— Wentz figures to be their 4th #1 QB the last four years.
— Last four years, Colts are 13-2-1 ATS as favorites of 3 or less points.
— Last four years, Colts are 2-7-1 as underdogs of 3 or less points.
— Last three years, Indy is 9-2-1 ATS vs. NFC opponents.

Jaguars:
— Finished over .500 once in last 13 years.
— Last three years, Jaguars are 7-12-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last nine years, they’re 8-28 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Last four years, they’re 8-13 ATS coming off a win.

Chiefs:
— Last six years, KC is 71-25 in regular season, 7-5 in playoffs.
— Last eight years, Chiefs are 18-6 ATS in AFC West road games.
— KC is 5-10 ATS last 15 times they were double digit favorites.
— Last five years, Chiefs are 12-7 ATS coming off a loss.

Raiders:
— Last 18 years, Raiders are 0-1 in playoff games (2016)
— Last three years, Raiders are 19-29 SU under Gruden.
— They’re 8-4 ATS in last dozen AFC West home games.
— Last four years, Raiders are combined minus-34 in turnovers.

Chargers:
— Chargers made playoffs twice in last 11 years.
— Last three years, they’re 3-13-1 ATS as home favorites
— They’re 1-8-2 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Last 10 years, Chargers are 7-22-1 ATS in AFC West home games.

Dolphins:
— Last 20 years, Miami is 0-3 in playoff games.
— Last four years, Dolphins are 18-10-3 ATS at home.
— Miami is 14-29 ATS in last 43 games on artificial turf.
— Last two years, they’re 11-5 ATS coming off a loss.

Patriots:
— Under Belichick, they’re 47-23-2 ATS as an underdog.
— NE was +3 in turnovers LY, +31 the previous two years.
— Since 2013, they’re 35-19-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— 2-7 ATS last nine games as favorites of 3 or fewer points.

Jets:
— Last time they made playoffs: 2010 under Rex Ryan.
— Last five years, Jets are 13-25-2 ATS on the road.
— Last three years, Jets are 12-21 ATS coming off a loss.
— Underdogs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 AFC home tilts.

Steelers:
— Steelers’ last losing season: 2003 (four .500 years since then)
— Last time they won a playoff game: 2017.
— Last three years, they’re 18-10 ATS coming off a win.
— Steelers covered 13 of last 16 games as an underdog.

Titans:
— Tennessee was over .500 last five years, 3-3 in playoffs.
— Last five years, Titans are 20-11-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last two years, they’re #2/#3 in rushing yardage, +16 in turnovers.
— Vrabel is 12-14 ATS as a favorite, 11-8 as an underdog.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-10-2021, 12:36 AM

Tuesday’s Den: Trends for NFL preseason games……..

There were no preseason games last year, so these trends are for 2018-19; as always, caution is advised when wagering on preseason/exhibition games.

Remember, only three weeks of preseason games from now on…….

13) Last two years, Baltimore Ravens are 9-0 SU/7-2 ATS in preseason

12) Underdogs covered Colts’ last seven preseason games (0-4 as F, 3-0 as U)

11) Under is 7-1 in Jets’ last eight preseason games.

10) Falcons are 1-8 SU/ATS in last two preseasons, 1-6 ATS as an underdog.

9) Buffalo covered its last four preseason road games; over is 6-2 in their last eight preseason games.

8) Steelers won/covered six of last eight exhibition games (4-0 ATS at home)

7) Tennessee is 2-6 SU in last eight preseason games (0-4 ATS as home favorites)

6) Under is 6-2 in last eight preseason games for both Rams and Cardinals.

5) Raiders are 6-2 SU last two preseasons; 3-0 ATS as home favorites, 3-0 ATS as road dogs.

4) Detroit is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS last two summers (over 6-2).

3) Eagles are 2-6 in last eight exhibitions, 0-2 ATS when favored.

2) Giants averaged 32.3 ppg in their last preseason, scoring 31+ every game.

1) Underdogs were 6-2 ATS in Bengals’ last eight preseason games.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-23-2021, 02:28 AM

Monday’s Den: Quick Thoughts/Notes on NFL’s Week 1 games:

Cowboys-Buccaneers:
— Main question for Dallas is the health of QB Prescott’s shoulder.
— Last 18 years, defending Super Bowl champs are 11-4-3 ATS in Week 1 the next year.

Eagles-Falcons:
— Both head coaches in this game are first-time head coaches.
— Eagles’ QB is 2nd year QB Hurts (1-3 as starter); Falcons’ is Matt Ryan (113-92)

Steelers-Bills:
— Buffalo split its last six home openers, after an 0-13 skid.
— Should be split crowd, tough day for security guys.

Vikings-Bengals:
— Klint Kubiak is Minnesota’s 6th offensive coordinator in six years.
— Burrow hasn’t played in preseason; he got hurt November 22. Is he healthy yet?

49ers-Lions:
— How long until rookie QB Lance takes over at QB?
— New QB, new coach, new GM; they’re going to run ball more.

Cardinals-Titans:
— Lost 4 of last 5 road openers; how much will JJ Watt help the defense?
— Titans added WR Julio Jones to spruce up offense; HC Vrabel has COVID

Seahawks-Colts:
— Seattle is 3rd betting choice in NFC West, which is ludicrous/absurd.
— If he is healthy, Wentz will be Colts’ 4th #1 QB the last four years.

Chargers-Washington:
— Will Staley’s defense be as sturdy now that he is a head coach?
— QB Fitzpatrick will be starting for an NFL-record 9th team.

Jets-Panthers:
— New coach, rookie QB, opener on road; not a great scenario.
— Carolina QB Darnold faces his old team in this game.

Jaguars-Texans:
— Meyer is 0-0 as an NFL HC, 187-32 as a college coach.
— Culley is 0-0 as a HC anywhere; he was an OC once, at UTEP in 1990.

Browns-Chiefs:
— Browns are 1-8 SU last nine road openers (3-5-1 ATS); last five stayed under total.
— Teams that lost Super Bowl are 4-14 ATS in Week 1 the next year; Chiefs have won, covered last four home openers.

Dolphins-Patriots:
— Jacoby Brissett (12-20 as starter) is solid backup for 2nd year QB Tagovailoa (6-3).
— New England had #1 net punting average in NFL last season.

Packers-Saints:
— Over is 12-3 in Green Bay’s last fifteen road openers.
— Who is the new QB? Are Hill/Winston both going to play?

Broncos-Giants:
— Denver is 32-48 since Peyton Manning left; who is this year’s QB?
— Giants are 10-22 since Eli Manning left; Glennon is a solid backup to Jones.

Bears-Rams:
— QB Dalton will start in Week 1; how long before rookie Fields takes over?
— Stafford is new QB; new DC, new special teams coach. WRs are improved, defense figures to take a step back.

Ravens-Raiders:
— Baltimore won/covered its last five season openers.
— First game at Allegiant Stadium with fans;

**StarDust Bum** · 08-27-2021, 03:18 AM

NFL Week 1 odds, picks: Kyler Murray and the Cardinals provide strong value in opener vs. Titans
Here's an early look at the opening slate of the 2021 regular season

The last week of the preseason is here and before you know it we'll be off to the races with the start of the 2021 regular season. While we're still a few weeks away from the Sept. 9 opener between the Cowboys and Bucs, it's never too early to take a look at the Week 1 slate and begin formulating our picks. Here, I'll comb through a handful of games that especially catch my eye and also give my early leans for the entire opening weekend in the NFL.

Of course, these picks are subject to change as we get closer to Week 1 and are merely where I'm leaning at the moment prior to the exhibition season coming to a close. Nevertheless, there's some pretty solid value on the board right now, which we'll cover.

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

49ers at Lions
Latest Odds:
San Francisco 49ers -7.5
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I do think we forget about the San Francisco 49ers a little bit when talking about the powerhouses in the NFC. That could be thanks to a looming quarterback change from Jimmy Garoppolo to rookie Trey Lance, but that shouldn't overshadow how solid of a team this is from top to bottom. More importantly, the Niners are healthy, which is something that you couldn't say for the bulk of last year.

That defense -- led by Nick Bosa and Fred Warner -- should have no problem going on the road and handling a Lions team that is not only entering 2021 with a new head coach in Dan Campbell and a new quarterback in Jared Goff, but they're also a little dinged up. Both running back D'Andre Swift and tight end T.J. Hockenson have been dealing with injuries this summer. Even if they are ready for the opener, it doesn't look like they'll be 100%. Those two are expected to be key cogs in Detroit's offense this season, so with them limited in Week 1, it's shaping up to be a long day for the Lions.

San Francisco also has played well historically to begin the year. The team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1 and is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in September.

Projected score: 49ers 28, Lions 17
The pick: 49ers -7.5

Broncos at Giants
Latest Odds:
Denver Broncos -1.5
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It'll be Teddy Bridgewater under center for the Broncos in the opener after the team recently named him the starting quarterback for Week 1 after beating out Drew Lock this summer. Denver has a ton of weapons offensively that Bridgewater can lean on and should prove to be a unit that's tough to contain, especially if the veteran quarterback is as efficient as he was during the preseason. Through two contests, Bridgewater completed 16 of his 19 passes for 179 yards two touchdowns.

Not only does Bridgewater's ascension to QB1 bring promise to the Broncos, but it's also an encouraging sign for bettors. For his career, Bridgewater has been otherworldy to those who lean on him, owning a 35-14 ATS record in his starts. To look at it even deeper and link it to the opener at MetLife Stadium, Bridgewater is 21-3 ATS when he plays on the road. That's enough to have anyone blindly throw a few shekels on Denver here. It also doesn't hurt that New York is 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 1 and likely won't have a few key pieces to its offense (Saquon Barkley, Kadarius Toney, and Kenny Golladay) 100% healthy for this matchup.

Projected score: Broncos 24, Giants 17
The pick: Broncos -1.5

Bears at Rams
Latest Odds:
Los Angeles Rams -7.5
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Bears head coach Matt Nagy is insistent that Andy Dalton will get the start in the opener against Los Angeles, despite the promise that first-round rookie Justin Fields has shown over the summer. That could, in part, be due to Chicago not wanting to expose its young quarterback to the lethal Rams defense right out of the gate, simply feeding Dalton to the wolves. L.A. continued to be one of the league's better defenses last year, ranking fourth in DVOA, and should once again be a unit that has the ability to completely wreck a game. The Bears offensive line also has looked a bit suspect throughout periods of the preseason, which only adds more confidence towards Aaron Donald's club. Meanwhile, the Rams are about to unwrap their new high-powered offense led by quarterback Matthew Stafford, who the team acquired this offseason. Given the Bears' limited ceiling offensively under Dalton and against this L.A. defense, Chicago could be left in the dust pretty quickly in this one.

Of course, there's also a Sean McVay factor here as well as he routinely has his teams well-prepared on a weekly basis, but especially when he has more time to prepare. Throughout his previous four years as the Rams head coach, McVay is 4-0 ATS in Week 1.

Projected score: Rams 30, Bears 20
The pick: Rams -7.5

Browns at Chiefs
Latest Odds:
Kansas City Chiefs -6
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The Cleveland Browns are a team that could very well take a leap in 2021. After making the playoffs last season and advancing to the Divisional Round, the team went out this offseason and added a number of players that should only improve the club as a whole. Also, Year 2 under head coach Kevin Stefanski should bring even more stability to the organization. That said, it's tough to look away from the Chiefs here. They are looking to rebound from a loss in Super Bowl LV and will do so with an entirely revamped offensive line. If that new collection of linemen -- headlined by guard Joe Thuney and tackle Orlando Brown -- can keep Patrick Mahomes upright, they should be able to keep a touchdown distance over the Browns.

K.C. is another club that routinely begins the year off strong. Not only are they 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 1 contests, but they are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in September.

Projected score: Chiefs 28, Browns 21
The pick: Chiefs -6

Cardinals at Titans
Latest Odds:
Arizona Cardinals +3
Powered by Caesars Sportsbook
The Cardinals are my upset pick on the Week 1 slate. The Titans are poised to be players in the AFC playoff race again this season, but I'm not so sure what they'll look like out of the gate. Both receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have been missing time in practice due to injury, which means they may not be a full-go in the opener. If that's the case, Ryan Tannehill's weapons in the passing game become extremely limited and will likely need Derrick Henry to have a monster outing to help bail them out. While Tennessee did add the likes of Bud Dupree to help its defense, it remains to be seen how much the pass rusher -- who tore his ACL in Week 12 last season -- will be able to truly impact the unit from the jump. In 2020, the Titans ranked as the fourth-worst defense in the NFL in DVOA. Even if they marginally improve, they'd still be in the bottom half of the league. The Titans also don't have the best track record to begin the year, owning a 1-4 ATS mark in their past five Week 1 contests. In their last six games in September, they are 1-5 ATS.

Given all those factors, it's easy for me to fade Tennessee at the moment. As long as the Cardinals -- who are 4-0 ATS against the Titans in their last four meetings -- don't choke it away, they have the talent on both sides of the ball to not only cover but possibly win outright.

Projected score: Cardinals 27, Titans 24
The pick: Cardinals +3

Rest of the bunch
Cowboys at Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 20
My pick: Buccaneers -7.5

Eagles at Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 24, Eagles 20
My pick: Falcons -3.5

Steelers at Bills
Projected score: Bills 27, Steelers 21
My pick: Steelers +7

Vikings at Bengals
Projected score: Vikings 30, Bengals 27
My pick: Bengals +3.5

Seahawks at Colts
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Colts 17
My pick: Seahawks -1

Chargers at Washington
Projected score: Chargers 24, Washington 21
My pick: Chargers -1.5

Jets at Panthers
Projected score: Panthers 27, Jets 17
My pick: Panthers -4.5

Jaguars at Texans
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Texans 20
My pick: Jaguars -3

Dolphins at Patriots
Projected score: Patriots 23, Dolphins 20
My pick: Patriots -2.5

Packers at Saints
Projected score: Packers 33, Saints 24
My pick: Packers -3

Ravens at Raiders
Projected score: Ravens 28, Raiders 21
My pick: Ravens -4

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2021, 11:29 PM

NFL free agency 2021: Cam Newton, Todd Gurley highlight 11 big names still available on open market

Newton leads a high-profile list of free agents that remain unsigned

The NFL season is just under a week away, with teams finalizing their initial 53-man rosters ahead of their season openers. As a new wave of free agency hits, veteran players find themselves on the open market in favor of young talent -- joining other veterans who are still looking for a job.

Some of these players will find work sooner rather than later, even if most of the high-profile free agents are in their 30s. These players may be on the backend of their careers, but they still have some gas left in the tank to contribute to an NFL roster in 2021.

Of the high profile free agents, here are the most notable as the season approaches:

Cam Newton (32)

Newton, recently released by the New England Patriots earlier this week, is the top free agent in the league. The 2015 NFL MVP has thrown for 31,698 yards and 190 touchdowns in his career while rushing for 5,398 yards and 70 touchdowns -- the latter of which are the most for a quarterback in league history.

The only signal-caller to reach double-digit touchdowns in three separate seasons, Newton can still run with the best of them. Newton led the league with 12 rushing touchdowns in 2020, even though he ranked 34th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in touchdown percentage (2.2) and 21st in yards per attempt (7.2).

If Newton wants to be a backup, he won't be unemployed for long. But all the starting quarterback jobs are filled -- for now.

Adrian Peterson (36)

One of the best running backs remaining in free agency, Peterson still has plans to play a 15th season, even if he hasn't found a new team yet. He was productive in 2020, rushing for 604 yards on 156 carries and seven touchdowns in 16 games for the Detroit Lions at the age of 35.

Peterson has 14,820 career rushing yards, leaving him just 450 yards short of passing Barry Sanders for fourth on the all-time list. His 118 rushing touchdowns are fourth in league history, just six away from passing Marcus Allen for third (123). He has the most 50-yard touchdown runs (16) and 60-yard touchdown runs (15) in NFL history. He's tied with Chris Johnson for the most 70-yard touchdown runs in NFL history (seven).

Peterson holds the NFL record for rushing yards in a game with 296, one of six 200-yard rushing games in his career (tied with O.J. Simpson for the most in league history). His eight 1,000-yard seasons are tied for sixth-most in NFL history, and his eight seasons of 10-plus rushing touchdowns are tied with Emmitt Smith for second-most in league history.

Mitchell Schwartz (32)

One of the underrated tackles in the NFL for years, Schwartz is still a free agent after playing just six games last season because of a back injury. Schwartz has contemplated retirement, but has been rehabbing in hopes of a comeback.

Schwartz has allowed just eight sacks in his last 2,269 pass-blocking snaps (54 games) dating back to 2017. The former first-team All-Pro selection could be an option for Kansas City, even if the Chiefs have depth at tackle entering the year.

Richard Sherman (33)

Sherman was one of the top free agent cornerbacks available prior to an arrest in July. The former All-Pro cornerback was charged with five misdemeanors -- including driving under the influence, endangering roadway workers, resisting arrest and domestic-violence-related counts of malicious mischief and criminal trespass. Sherman can sign with any team but may face discipline from the league.

Sherman spent the past three years with the San Francisco 49ers before becoming a free agent this offseason. With the 49ers, Sherman made second-team All-Pro and his fifth Pro Bowl appearance in 2019 as San Francisco made it all the way to Super Bowl LIV.

Sherman is best remembered for his time as one of the captains of the "Legion of Boom" during his seven seasons with the Seattle Seahawks. The elite defensive unit even led the Seahawks to a Super Bowl XLVIII win over the Denver Broncos to cap the 2013 campaign. A member of the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team, Sherman has been selected as a first-team All-Pro three times in his career.

Sherman -- limited to just five games last season with a calf injury -- allowed just a 57.1% completion rate and a 56.3 passer rating as the primary defender.

Le'Veon Bell (29)

Bell may have played his way out of the NFL just four years after being arguably the league's best back. Bell amassed 4,476 rushing yards in his final four years with the Pittsburgh Steelers (2014 to 2017), which ranked third in the NFL amongst running backs, and first in receiving yards at his position with 2,261.

Since then, Bell's career has taken a turn for the worse. After a one-year holdout, Bell cashed in with the New York Jets in 2019 but became arguably the worst running back in football. In Bell's one-and-a-half seasons with the Jets, he recorded just 863 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per carry -- all last in the league among the 16 running backs that have logged more than 240 carries since Bell started with the Jets -- up until his release from the team in October 2020.

Bell ended up with the Kansas City Chiefs, finishing with 63 carries for 254 yards and two touchdowns (4.0 yards per carry) in nine games. He has failed to record a run of more than 20 yards since Christmas Day 2017 with the Steelers.

After criticizing Andy Reid this offseason, it may be difficult for Bell to find another NFL job any time soon.

Olivier Vernon (30)

Offseason Achilles surgery hindered Vernon's chances of landing a huge payday in free agency. Vernon was a force on the Cleveland Browns defense in 2020, finishing with nine sacks (the second-highest total of his career), 16 quarterback hits, 28 pressures and 12 hurries.

Some team will be more than pleased with Vernon, whose nine sacks came over his final eight games. The only downside with signing Vernon is that he may not be ready to play until late-September at the earliest, as Achilles injuries usually take nine months to recover.

Still, Vernon is good enough to help a playoff contender.

Todd Gurley (27)

Gurley still remains on the open market after training camp, which is a bit of a surprise. Knee issues have played a role in Gurley not being able to find a job, limiting his ability to be a featured back again. Of the 10 running backs with 400-plus carries over the last two years, Gurley is last in yards per carry (3.7) and rushing yards (1,535). He is fourth in rushing touchdowns (21) during that span.

Gurley can still provide a red zone threat for any team that signs him. He led the NFL with 48 rushing touchdowns from 2016 to 2019, which were eight more than Ezekiel Elliott. His 67 rushing touchdowns since his rookie year in 2015 lead the league.

It's hard to envision Gurley staying unemployed all year. He can help out a contending team.

Frank Gore (38)

Gore is open to playing a 17th season, but hasn't found a team yet. The odds are against Gore recording a carry at age 38, but he'll make history if he does. No running back has ever recorded a carry at the age of 38 (with records first kept in 1950). The most rushing yards for a back age 38 or older is fullback Tony Richardson, who finished with five carries for 13 yards in his age-38 season (2010).

If Gore does play, there's a good chance he breaks that mark. Gore finished with 187 carries and 653 yards and two touchdowns in 2020, as he was the No. 1 running back for the Jets at 37.

Gore won't be asked to carry the load much in 2021 if he signs with a team, but there will be plenty of firsts if he plays at age 38. He'll be the first running back to carry a football and rush for any yards at that age, an impressive feat given the brevity of running backs in this league.

Larry Fitzgerald (38)

Fitzgerald isn't sure at the moment if he'll return for an 18th season in the NFL, but it is expected to be with the Arizona Cardinals if he does. Fitzgerald is coming off a 54-catch, 409-yard, 7.6-yard-per-reception, one-touchdown campaign -- all of which were career lows.

Fitzgerald has caught 1,432 passes for 17,492 yards and 121 touchdowns in his Hall of Fame career, all with the Cardinals. He's second only to Jerry Rice in receptions and receiving yards and sixth all-time in receiving touchdowns. Fitzgerald holds 24 NFL records and 40 franchise records, etching himself as one of the greatest players in NFL history.

Perhaps Arizona making a potential playoff run will change Fitzgerald's mind in a few months, but the urge doesn't seem to be there for him at the moment.

Geno Atkins (33)

Atkins is on the market now, but the eight-time Pro Bowler and two-time first-team All-Pro should find a new team soon. Atkins had a visit with the Seattle Seahawks this week -- one month after being cleared from offseason shoulder surgery.

A late start to free agency shouldn't affect Atkins much, as he's looking for a bounce-back campaign after playing in just eight games and recording one tackle in 2020. The shoulder injury didn't help, as Atkins was ineffective dealing with the issue all year.

Atkins is still a good rotational piece for a team that needs help on the defensive line.

John Brown (31)
Brown entered free agency after requesting his release from the Raiders. He still is a big-play threat that averaged more than 14 yards per catch in three of the last four years, and he is just two years removed from racking up 1,060 yards with the Buffalo Bills in 2019.

Brown had 33 catches for 458 yards and three touchdowns last season after hauling in 72 catches in 2019. Teams could use Brown's big-play ability in their offense, especially teams that need veteran receiver depth.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2021, 11:32 PM

49ers reportedly sign former All-Pro Josh Norman, adding cornerback help ahead of Week 1 vs. Lions

The 33-year-old spent 2020 with the Bills

The 49ers are just one week away from kicking off their 2021 season, but they may have just found one of their top cornerbacks for the new year. As FOX Sports' Jay Glazer reported Sunday, San Francisco has signed former All-Pro cover man Josh Norman to a one-year contract. The 33-year-old free agent, who spent 2020 with the Bills, can earn up to $2.5 million on the deal, per NFL Network, and instantly becomes the most accomplished veteran in the Niners' cornerback room.

Norman is by no means a lock to start immediately in the 49ers' secondary, which welcomed back Jason Verrett on an incentive-laden $5.5 million deal this offseason. But with Verrett coming off a foot injury and owning an extensive medical history anyway, Norman has a feasible path to early playing time in San Francisco. After parting ways with both Richard Sherman and Ahkello Witherspoon in free agency, the Niners mostly invested in familiar faces at the position, with their most notable addition being third-round draft pick Ambry Thomas.

Norman, who hasn't played a full season in three years, had other suitors before signing with the 49ers, NFL Network reported. Originally a fifth-round pick of the Panthers in 2012, he spent the first four seasons of his career in Carolina, emerging as a Pro Bowler with a four-interception breakout in 2015. After cashing in on a $75M deal in Washington the following year, Norman spent another four seasons in D.C., coming on and off the bench in his final year there. As a reserve with Buffalo in 2020, he managed just nine appearances due to hamstring and COVID-19 issues, but was involved in multiple takeaways during the team's AFC title bid.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2021, 11:35 PM

Ahkello Witherspoon trade grades: How Steelers, Seahawks fared in swap of depth CB for late-round pick

Witherspoon signed with the Seahawks earlier this offseason

The Pittsburgh Steelers picked up some additional cornerback depth ahead of the 2021 regular season.

The Steelers completed a trade with the Seahawks on Friday, sending Seattle a 2023 fifth-round pick in exchange for Ahkello Witherspoon. Witherspoon, who was signed away from the San Francisco 49ers as a free agent earlier this offseason, became expendable after Seattle traded for former first-round pick Sidney Jones on Aug. 31.

In the interest of brevity, let's grade the trade.

Steelers: B-

The Steelers have lost some of their cornerback depth over the past couple years. Joe Haden is still around, along with Cameron Sutton and Justin Layne, but Steven Nelson left the team in 2019, Artie Burns left in 2020, and Mike Hilton left this past offseason.

Defensive back depth is of the utmost importance in the modern NFL, so it makes sense that the Steelers wanted to add another body at one of the league's most crucial positions. The Steelers acquired Witherspoon at a relatively low cost, sending the Seahawks a Day 3 pick in a draft two years out.

Witherspoon, though, has yet to really distinguish himself during his four NFL seasons, and saw his snap rate decline to a career-low 32 percent last season. The 49ers saw fit to let him sign with a division rival on a low-cost, one-year deal, and then the Seahawks felt comfortable trading him and eating the signing bonus for a player who will never step on the field for them during a regular season game. So, it seems unlikely that the Steelers got themselves a player who will make that big an impact, but they did at least fill a position of need at relatively low cost.

Excited for the biggest NFL schedule in history? Follow along on the CBS Sports app and get the latest insights from our team of NFL insiders, plus news from our team of experts, as well as data insights on every player. If you already have the CBS Sports app, make sure to favorite the your favorite team so you don't miss a thing!

Seahawks: C-

Seattle traded a player it apparently was not going to use and received a future draft pick in return. That's pretty good.

But the Seahawks are not exactly stacked at the cornerback position in the first place. Even after the acquisition of Jones, their top players at the position are likely Tre Flowers, D.J. Reed, and Marquise Blair. Is a fifth-round pick two years down the line going to do more for them than additional depth at a position where they clearly felt they still needed help would have? It seems unlikely.

The Seahawks also get dinged for signing a player (Witherspoon) who they had seen twice a year for four years to replace their departed No. 1 cornerback (Shaq Griffin), only to find that player's skill set lacking enough that they traded for a different corner (Jones) just before the start of the season and then traded Witherspoon away as well. The series of events is pretty bad, no matter how you slice it.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2021, 11:48 PM

NFL Week 1 odds, staff picks: Buccaneers over Cowboys and 49ers over Lions among popular best bets

The CBS Sports NFL team picks their favorite best bets for Week 1

Football is less than a week away, so it's about time you start locking in your Week 1 picks. The opening week of the NFL regular season is either one of the most fun gambling weeks of the year, or one you want to avoid -- depending on how you look at it. There are no past games to go off of, all the trends sharps examine are from last year and there are brand new players who will be experiencing their first action.

There is always at least one big surprise. Take last year for example; the Jacksonville Jaguars' lone victory came in Week 1 against Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts, and Dwayne Haskins and the Washington Football Team beat the Philadelphia Eagles by double digits. There is no such thing as a "sure thing" in Week 1.

Every year, we round up those on our CBS NFL roster and ask for their best bet for Week 1 of the regular season. Those taking part in this article are NFL insider Jonathan Jones, senior writer Pete Prisco, Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson, plus writers John Breech, Ryan Wilson, Chris Trapasso, Jordan Dajani, Jared Dubin, Josh Edwards, Tyler Sullivan, Bryan DeArdo, Cody Benjamin and Jeff Kerr.

First, we will list all 16 spreads and Over/Unders and then get into our best bets.

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Week 1 odds

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) (Over/Under 51.5)

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (-3) (Over/Under 52)

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Washington Football Team (Over/Under 44.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) (Over/Under 48)

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts (Over/Under 48.5)

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (Over/Under 48)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Houston Texans (Over/Under 44.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-6.5) (Over/Under 48.5)

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Detroit Lions (Over/Under 45.5)

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New York Giants (Over/Under 42.5)

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-6) (Over/Under 53)

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-2.5) (Over/Under 44)

Green Bay Packers (-4) at New Orleans Saints (Over/Under 50)

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) (Over/Under 44.5)

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (Over/Under 51)

Week 1 best bets

Cowboys at Buccaneers

Prisco: Cowboys +7.5. This line is bloated because the Bucs have all 22 starters back from the Super Bowl win. I get it. But let's not forget that team didn't even win the division. The Cowboys will stay in this game and lose by a field goal. Giving me 7.5 is an easy victory for the dog.

Brinson: Buccaneers -7.5. It would be way too big a donkey move to buy a half a point here and make it -7 (-125) so I'm not going to do that and instead will just bank on the Buccaneers steam-rolling the Cowboys in the 2021 opener. Tom Brady is going through his first full offseason with the Buccaneers, who showed their potential on offense down the stretch last year once he really developed a rapport with his wide receivers. Everyone knows about the 22 starters coming back, so I won't rehash that. What I think is a little more interesting is the cohesion on the offensive line with all those guys coming back and the full health of Vita Vea on the interior of the defensive line. Young players like Devin White (legit DPOY candidate) and Antoine Winfield Jr. have even more seasoning now. The Cowboys defense might be better this year but I don't think it comes out strong in Week 1. And the Dallas offense wasn't great last year with a healthy Dak Prescott. He's on track for Week 1 but this is a tough opening test. The Bucs roll in this one like 38-21.

Breech: Buccaneers -7.5. Dak Prescott is coming off two injuries, he hasn't taken a game snap in 11 months and his first game is against one of the best defenses in football. This one might get ugly for the Cowboys.

Cardinals at Titans

Sullivan: Cardinals +3. I don't love the way the Titans are trending heading into the regular season. Not only are they dealing with COVID-19 issues, but both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown have been dinged up throughout the summer. If they are less than 100% out of the gate, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense may have no problem leaving them in the dust. Tennessee has also struggled to begin the year historically. In their past five Week 1 contests, they are 1-4 ATS.

49ers at Lions

Jones: 49ers -7.5. I guess I understand that you can't make the spread too large in Week 1. But there's no evidence this Lions team will be able to keep pace with the Niners even if San Francisco isn't showing everything they have in the opener. This one seems obvious to me. (I also like Green Bay -3 against the Saints. Drew Brees isn't walking through that door.)

Kerr: 49ers -7.5. The 49ers are one of the most talented teams in the NFL when healthy -- and have their full arsenal of players heading into this matchup. Detroit is rebuilding its roster under Dan Campbell -- and I'm unsure how the Lions are going to score 17 points against the 49ers defense. San Francisco should have its way against Detroit on the ground. This has the makings of a blowout.

Dajani: 49ers -7.5. The 49ers are one of the biggest favorites in Week 1 and I'm jumping on board. With Jimmy Garoppolo motivated to keep his job against a subpar opponent in the Lions, expect the 49ers to record a double-digit victory.

Dubin: Under 45.5. I can't see the Lions scoring much and the Niners will be content to run the ball all game once they get a lead.

Vikings at Bengals

Benjamin: Vikings -3.5. Joe Burrow's return is exciting, but give me Mike Zimmer against his old flame here. The Bengals are still establishing their identity, and their secondary, while restocked, remains suspect. Minnesota can pound the ball on the ground, get after Burrow and take a nice road win to start the year.

Dolphins at Patriots

Wilson: Patriots -2.5. This New England team -- on both sides of the ball -- will look completely different from last year's 7-9 outfit. Tua Tagovailoa will be better in Year 2 but it's hard not to take Bill Belichick in that matchup.

Broncos at Giants

Trapasso: Under 42.5. The Broncos defense is ready to rock again with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb reunited on the edges and Justin Simmons patrolling the deep middle. The Giants aren't stout defensively, but James Bradberry is one of the league's best big cornerbacks who should be a formidable matchup for Courtland Sutton in his first game back from an early 2020 injury. Teddy Bridgewater is a capable starter but not one accustomed to leading shootouts on the road. This will be your father's low-scoring battle.

Packers at Saints (in Jacksonville)

Edwards: Packers -4. There are understandably going to be bigger concerns in the back of the minds of those on the Saints roster.

Ravens at Raiders (MNF)

DeArdo: Raiders +4.5. The Raiders may very well pull off the upset. Baltimore recently suffered a gut punch in losing J.K. Dobbins for the season. Las Vegas is going to be riding the momentum of playing in front of fans at Allegiant Stadium for the first time

**Udog** · 09-07-2021, 04:08 PM

Hot and Not Report - Week 1
Matt Blunt

After spending the past few weeks outlining some various situations and angles that NFL teams find themselves in Week 1 this year, it doesn't hurt to add more support to some of those ideas by harking back to something I brought up last year at this time and worked rather well through the eight games it applied too in the opening week last year.

So lets touch on sides and totals for a handful of Week 1 games, with the main criteria being games that include playoff teams from a year ago.

Who's Hot

Over the past four years, playoff teams from the previous year are 24-6-1 SU (18-13 ATS) in Week 1 when playing a non-playoff team from a year ago.

Outlined this scenario last year when it was on a 18-4-1 SU run over the previous three years and we had eight different games fit the scenario. Baltimore, New England, Buffalo, Tennessee, Philadelphia, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Seattle were all 2019 playoff participants that opened up the 2020 campaign against a non-playoff team, and on the whole they went 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS (grading the Titans two-point win as an ATS loss after opening at -1 and closing -3).

Similar to last week's idea that “winning begets winning” in this league with undefeated preseason teams starting out the regular season on the right foot, teams that were among the top third in the league last year seem to find a way to keep the good times rolling early on the following season when they are up against a team looking to take that next step and get to a similar level in becoming a playoff-caliber team.

We don't have a list of eight contests to roll with this year despite having an extra two teams from last year's expanded playoff format, as the Week 1 schedule does pit many of those postseason squads against one another this year. But there are four contests that fit the bill this year, and one of them even includes an undefeated preseason team to tie in last week's piece yet again.

Games that apply in 2021:

Tampa Bay (-7.5) vs Dallas
Tennessee (-3) vs Arizona
Washington (+1) vs LA Chargers
Baltimore (-4.5) vs Las Vegas

The Baltimore Ravens are the one team from this year's list that also have that positive role of being an undefeated preseason team going for them, although a two-year wait for a new stadium to be debuted with fans is still a rather unquantifiable scenario that can still bring some questions about how seriously one really wants to trust the Ravens as the only road team as well in this list.

This week's scenario does suggest that a Baltimore ML wager is probably the ideal way to support this trend as opposed to laying the 4.5 points. Even with the unknown of whether or not the Raiders home field advantage could be considered slightly higher than the average NFL team, there is just too much support historically that suggests Baltimore starts the year 1-0 SU. That's where I've ultimately landed on this game too. Washington is another interesting case here, as they are the only underdog of the group, and also the only ones who get to face a rookie HC making his NFL debut, on the road no less.

The first game on the road for rookie HC's sits at 32-51 SU but 49-32-2 ATS as I outlined in that earlier piece, which throws a nice wrench into this game completely given that it's a 1-point spread currently, and it's actually the team with the rookie HC (LAC) that's laying the chalk. Previous debuting coaches have not had much success winning games outright with that 32-51 SU record, but an ATS record that's 17 games over .500 in that same span does douse some of the enthusiasm for making a Washington play here.

But combining a 24-6-1 SU record for Washington as a playoff vs non-playoff team with the 32-51 SU record for rookie HC's playing their first game on the road should probably take precedent here if bettors are so inclined to make this Washington/LA Chargers game a part of their Week 1 card.

Finally, the Tampa Bay/Dallas season opener on Thursday night feels like the ideal scenario where this entire “Hot” trend plays out like it generally has in the past, with the Buccaneers starting out the season 1-0 SU with the ATS result being much more up in the air. That could easily be a nasty hook for Tampa Bay ATS backers with the spread just over a full TD, as a 1-7 point win for Tampa on Thursday is what I'm rather expecting to see there.

Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick leads Washington as a short underdog against the L.A. Chargers in Week 1. (AP)

Who's Not

Backing 'over's in games that feature AFC playoff teams from the previous season. AFC playoff teams are on a 3-11 O/U run against any opponent in Week 1 the last three seasons.

This was a run that was 1-8 O/U entering the first week of the 2020 season, and of the five games that applied (2019 playoff teams Houston and KC played in Week 1 so the result is counted only once), we still saw an overall 2-3 O/U record be the end result. Houston and KC managed to go 'over' the closing number of 53.5 by the hook, while Buffalo was the other team to cash an 'over' ticket, but did so in a 27-17 win over the Jets with a sub-40 closing total (39). The other three 2019 AFC playoff teams – Baltimore, New England, and Tennessee – all had the 'unders' cash relatively easily.

2021 has that 7 th AFC playoff team to account for, but this situation is still only applicable to five Week 1 games:

Pittsburgh/Buffalo (49)
Arizona/Tennessee (52)
Seattle/Indianapolis (48.5)
Cleveland/Kansas City (53)
Baltimore/Las Vegas (51)

Only having five games apply means that two of them – Pittsburgh/Buffalo and Cleveland/KC – have both sides coming off playoff years and it will be interesting to see how those play out. The Chiefs were in an identical spot last season when they opened up against Houston and the 54 points in the final score only cashed 'over' tickets based on if you had bet that game sometime during the day of the game in all likelihood. Originally that total opened up at 56.5 earlier in the summer and had seen constant support for the 'under' as it kept creeping down to it's eventual closing number of 53.5.

This year the Chiefs get another playoff rematch when they host the Browns, and market sentiment has already shown support for the 'over' and once the majority of recreational bettors get involved closer to kick- off, I'm sure oddsmakers are going to hope that this 'under' run for this scenario continues in a big way. The same can probably be said for the Steelers/Bills game as well.

The other interesting case here that could see an 'under' play fit the contrarian approach is in that Ravens/Raiders game on MNF to close out Week 1.

A single primetime game to close out the opening week is almost always going to bring plenty of support for an 'over' play, and based on how Week 1 has gone for the books/bettors up until that point, we will get plenty of reports on how one-sided action will be on the side and/or total for this game.

Given the two teams on the field, an argument for an 'over' play makes plenty of sense too, but with the total already in the 50's, and the assumption being that oddsmakers are going to likely need an 'under' to cash in Las Vegas, I believe it's probably the best game of the five-game bunch to blindly trust this history.

Baltimore's still going to be a heavy run team (bleeds the clock), and considering the consensus opinion in the markets on QB Derek Carr not exactly being in the top half (or so) of the QB's in the league, it's not like an 'under' argument doesn't make sense either.

**Udog** · 09-07-2021, 04:10 PM

Tech Trends - Week 1
*Bruce Marshall

**Udog** · 09-07-2021, 04:11 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Announcement

Nfl 2021-2022 football season previews-news-notes-picks-rumors !

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