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Arizona Cardinals 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Third Times A Charm For Kliff and Kyler?

Year 3 of the Kingsbury/Kyler marriage again shows lots of promise, but with a greater focus on passing — and less of Murray running — what are the best ways to bet Arizona? Find out in our Cardinals 2021 season betting preview.

The promise of the Arizona Cardinals is part of the reason why the NFC West is the NFL’s best division. The Cardinals have an exciting young core on the field — and on the sideline — and anchored that potential with veteran additions on both sides of the ball in 2021.

That experience is much needed after Arizona drifted off course in the second half of the 2020 campaign, starting the season 5-2 SU and ATS before burning bettors like the desert sun with a 2-7 ATS finish (3-6 SU).

Here’s our 2021 Arizona Cardinals NFL betting preview.

Arizona Cardinals futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +3,200
To Win Conference +1,600
To Win Division +550
Season Win Total 8.5 (O +130/U -160)
Best futures bet: Over 8.5 wins (+130)

Outside of the NFC West (Arizona was 2-4 SU in divisional games last year), the Cardinals slate isn’t too prickly and ranks 13th in strength of schedule. They match up with the AFC South in non-conference competition and play some of the tougher non-divisional matchups at home (Minnesota, Green Bay, Indianapolis). On top of the matchup with the Packers, Arizona also plays Houston: two teams whose star quarterbacks could be MIA by the time those games roll around. The oddsmakers have the Cards as favorites in nine games with one pick'em on the board.


What will win bets: Passing game

We enter Year 3 under coach Kliff Kingsbury and the third season for QB Kyler Murray. The cupboard is loaded with offensive options, most notably the receiving corps. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green (if healthy), and rookie WR Rondale Moore will thrive in the up-tempo 10 personnel playbook and Arizona will score — a lot.

What will lose bets: Running game

Besides Lamar Jackson’s record-setting running, no quarterback rushed for more yards than Murray in 2020. That’s not a good thing and Murray knows it, stating he would like to run less. Protecting Murray from punishment and keeping pass rushes honest falls on Arizona’s ground game, which replaces the departed (and underrated) Kenyan Drake with the versatile-yet-fragile James Conner.

Arizona Cardinals game-by-game odds

According to the lookahead lines, 10 of Arizona’s 17 games have spreads of a field goal or less. Arizona is 6-9 ATS (6-8-1 SU) when set between -3 and +3 in the two years under Kingsbury.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ Tennessee +3.5 51

2 vs Minnesota -3 49.5

3 @ Jacksonville -2.5 49

4 @ L.A. Rams +4.5 49

5 vs San Francisco PK 46.5

6 @ Cleveland +4.5 50

7 vs Houston -10.5 49

8 vs Green Bay -3 49

9 @ San Francisco +5.5 47

10 vs Carolina -6 49.5

11 @ Seattle +3.5 50.5

12 BYE

13 @ Chicago -1.5 46

14 vs L.A. Rams +2.5 48

15 @ Detroit -6.5 47

16 vs Indianapolis -1 50

17 @ Dallas +2.5 52

18 vs Seattle -2 49


Early season forecast

The Cardinals were a last-second field goal from Detroit away from a 3-0 start last September and have a solid shot at winning the first three games of 2021.

They opened as 2.5-point underdogs in Tennessee for Week 1 and that spread ticked up to Titans -3 with their addition of Julio Jones. This 1 p.m. ET kickoff will be a contrast in tempos, with Arizona’s no-huddle putting the Tennessee defense on its heels and the Titans plodding run game trying to chew up clock and ice Murray & Co. on the sideline.

Week 2 is the home opener, with the Vikings coming to town for a 4:05 p.m. ET start. The Cardinals are giving a field goal to Minnesota, which is playing its second straight road game. Arizona is 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, and 4-7 O/U in home openers since 2010.

A cross-country trip to Jacksonville for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff is on the Week 3 docket. Bookies have the Cards pegged as 2.5-point road chalk. Arizona could get caught looking ahead to Week 4’s collision with L.A. However, Kingsbury is 3-1 ATS on the road versus AFC foes since 2019.

2021 NFL Win Totals
NFL
2021 NFL Win Totals

By: Jared Hochman

Spot bet
Week 4 – at Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
This first taste of the 2021 Rams — and new QB Matt Stafford — comes in a tricky schedule spot for the Cardinals, who will be playing their second straight away game and third road stop in four weeks to open the season. Plus Arizona went 0-2 SU and ATS versus Rams last season.

Totals tip
The Cardinals were one of the best Under bets in football last season, going 5-11 Over/Under — including five straight Under winners to start the schedule. A disruptive pass rush and solid secondary can take credit for those results.

However, lockdown corner Patrick Peterson is gone and Arizona is hoping to squeeze out whatever is left from defensive veterans Malcolm Butler and J.J Watt. This season, oddsmakers have set five of Arizona's games with sub-49 totals. The Cards are 6-9 O/U in games with totals of 48.5 points or less under Kingsbury.

Star power props: Kyler Murray, QB
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +1,200
Passing leader +4,100
Passing yards total 4,150.5 (O -115/U -115)
Best prop: Passing Leader (+4,100)

Murray finished with 3,971 passing yards last year (13th) and played the second half of the season with a bum shoulder, while the offensive line allowed 17 sacks in the final eight games after giving up only 10 in the opening eight outings.

Kingsbury’s 10 personnel sets (four WRs) and no-huddle attack want Murray throwing more and running less, and with a bevy of reliable targets, the former Heisman winner should climb the passing charts quickly. His top target, DeAndre Hopkins, is the favorite to lead the league in receiving yards at +750, so it only makes sense that Murray should challenge for the passing title as well.

2021 NFL Divisional Odds
NFL
2021 NFL Divisional Odds

By: Chris Toman

Trend to know
Arizona is 3-9 SU and 4-6-2 ATS versus NFC West rivals since Kingsbury took over as head coach in 2019.

Divisional games

Week 4: +4.5 at Rams
Week 5: PK vs 49ers
Week 9: +5.5 at 49ers
Week 11: +3.5 at Seahawks
Week 14: +2.5 vs Rams
Week 18: -2 vs Seahawks

Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

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Los Angeles Rams 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Sean McVay Has A Shiny New Toy

It's Super Bowl or bust for the Rams, who still have an elite defense but have finally added an elite QB in Matthew Stafford. L.A. is sitting at +600 to win the NFC — is that our favorite Rams prop? Find out in our Los Angeles season betting preview.

The Los Angeles Rams wasted no time getting their ducks in a row for the 2021 NFL season, trading for veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford in March.

After a Big Game appearance in 2019-20 and watching poor QB play soil the league’s best defense last year, enough was enough for head coach Sean McVay. Jared Goff is gone and it’s Super Bowl or bust for an L.A. team that finished 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS, second in the NFC West, and was bounced in the Divisional Round.

We present our 2021 Los Angeles Rams NFL betting preview.

Los Angeles Rams futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +1,200
To Win Conference +600
To Win Division +200
Season Win Total O/U 10.5 (Under -120)
Best futures bet: NFC Conference champs (+600)

Los Angeles has a great shot at getting back to the Super Bowl, which just so happens to be played in SoFi Stadium this year. Besides the Bucs (+225), the rest of the Rams’ conference competition have fatal flaws (like the Packers pissing Aaron Rodgers off).

If you’re feeling feisty and holding on to memories of that monster Monday nighter from 2018, a Chiefs-Rams Big Game battle is paying +2,600. If anything, that flyer might set up a nice hedge opportunity come Championship Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams betting overview

What will win bets: Defense

The Rams’ vaunted defense lost some cogs up front this offseason but will still be among the league’s elite stop units. Los Angeles finished No. 4 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and caused plenty of chaos with 53 sacks in 2020. The defense allowed only 7.2 points per second half, which sets the table for Stafford’s late-game heroics to come through for bettors.

What will lose bets: Rushing game

The offseason injury to RB Cam Akers is a tough blow. Granted, with Stafford under center L.A. won’t be running as much and there’s still plenty of time to bring in another body to share handoffs with Darrell Henderson Jr.

But with some changes on the offensive line, McVay needs a capable ground game to keep defenses guessing, avoid constant heat on Stafford and give that rocket arm time to load and fire.

Los Angeles Rams game-by-game odds

The Rams are point spread favorites in 13 of their 17 games in 2021 (with one pick’em), and despite having the 10th-toughest strength of schedule this year are dealing a season win total of 10.5 O/U. Five of those games as the chalk come on the road, where McVay is 13-10 ATS when giving the points as a visitor.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 vs Chicago -7 44.5

2 @ Indianapolis +1.5 49.5

3 vs Tampa Bay -1 49.5

4 vs Arizona -4.5 49

5 @ Seattle PK 48

6 @ N.Y. Giants -3.5 45.5

7 vs Detroit -12 46

8 @ Houston -8.5 47

9 vs Tennessee -5.5 49.5

10 @ San Francisco +3 45.5

11 BYE

12 @ Green Bay -1 45.5

13 vs Jacksonville -9.5 47

14 @ Arizona -2.5 48

15 vs Seattle -4 48

16 @ Minnesota -2.5 48

17 @ Baltimore +3 42.5

18 vs San Francisco -3 44.5

Early season forecast

The season starts on Sunday Night Football when the Bears come to town in Week 1. The Rams are touchdown favorites with their sack attack setting sights on either Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, or rookie passer Justin Fields — hence the low total. That 44.5-point number lines up fine for McVay and crew, who are 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in games with sub-45 Over/Under totals.

A trip to Indianapolis is on the Week 2 agenda, pitting Los Angeles’ pass rush against the Colts drum-tight offensive line. The Rams, who are catching 1.5 points as visitors, have only been road underdogs a dozen times since McVay took over in 2017, going 8-4 ATS in those contests.

Week 3 gives us one of the most anticipated matchups of the entire season and a possible NFC Championship Game preview. Los Angeles is a slight 1-point favorite at home, marking the only game the Bucs are listed as underdogs in 2021. The Rams edged Tampa Bay 27-24 as 4-point road underdogs last year, in one of Tom Brady’s worst games (26/48, 216 yards, 2 TDS, 2 INTs). If you’re betting L.A. in this one, you may also want to grab its NFC title futures as well because this outcome will have a dramatic impact on those odds.

Spot bet

Week 6: @ N.Y. Giants -3.5

A nasty triple-decker sandwich spot awaits the Rams in the Meadowlands in mid-October. Los Angeles is not only ripe for a letdown after a Thursday night showdown in Seattle in Week 5 but could also get caught looking ahead to the Stafford/Goff revenge game versus Detroit in Week 7. On top of those situational spots, this is a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on the East Coast — 10 a.m. PT back in La-La Land.

Totals tip

The Rams finished 4-12 Over/Under in the regular season last year and had four sub-45 totals, staying below in each of those games. That said, Goff was the QB and the Rams had the seventh most run-heavy playbook in the league, chewing up 31:39 in average TOP (5th).

Despite McVay’s offensive prowess and Stafford’s big arm, Los Angeles doesn’t have a single total above 50 points, according to the current 2021 lookahead lines (three totals of 49.5). It does have three totals below 45 points and with Akers’ injury thinning the rushing corp, the defensive line losing some bite, and McVay excited to have a new toy under center, don’t expect another 75 percent run from Rams’ Unders.

Star power props: Matthew Stafford, QB
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +1,700
Passing leader +1,400
Passing yards total 4,550.5 (O/U -112)
Best prop: Under 4,550.5 yards (-112)

Stafford posted 4,084 yards through the air last year in a Lions offense that passed on 63 percent of its snaps and was often playing from behind, leaving no choice but to toss it.

McVay has more faith in Stafford than Goff, so expect L.A.’s air yards to stretch, but this is a very good L.A. team that will be protecting leads in the second half. And with a defense that can singlehandedly win games, no longer is the win/loss load all on Stafford’s mighty right arm like it was in Detroit. He’ll have a great year... but not this great.

Trend to know

Los Angeles is 16-8 SU and 16-7-1 ATS (69%) versus NFC foes the past two seasons but 3-5 SU and ATS versus the AFC in that same time frame.

AFC games in 2021

Week 2: +1.5 at Colts
Week 8: -8.5 at Texans
Week 9: -5.5 vs Titans
Week 13: -9.5 vs Jaguars
Week 17: +3 at Ravens

Where can I bet on the NFL?

You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

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Seattle Seahawks 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Can the Seahawks Overcome Their Identity Crisis?

The Seahawks have been among the NFL's most consistent teams, but with tension simmering between Russell Wilson and the team, and question marks on defense, is this the year they slide into mediocrity? Find out in our Seattle season betting preview.

The Seattle Seahawks have been the gatekeepers of the NFC West for some time now and added another divisional crown last year, finishing with a 12-4 SU record but an 8-8 mark against the spread.

Seven of those 2020 victories came via a touchdown or less and that drama is something Seahawks bettors are accustomed to, with 16 of the team’s 23 wins over the past two seasons coming by seven or fewer points. Will those thrilling wins turn to heartbreaking losses with the rest of the division getting better?

Check out our 2021 Seattle Seahawks NFL betting preview.

Seattle Seahawks futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +3,000
To Win Conference +1,500
To Win Division +275
Season Win Total O/U 9.5 (Over -130)
Best futures bet: Under 9.5 wins (+110)

According to bookmakers, the Seahawks are point spread favorites in only nine games this season (with one pick’em on the board) and three of those spreads are at a field goal or less. For all the hype around the infamous “12s” inside Lumen Field, Seattle has been a better road team since Russell Wilson showed up (42-28-1 SU away as of 2012). But the 2021 slate, which ranks T-11th in SOS, has many of the Seahawks’ toughest matchups away from the Emerald City.


What will win bets: Passing game
Wanna keep Russ happy? Keep him clean and keep him busy. That’s the plan laid out by new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who will institute more play-action and utilize Wilson’s mobility and mind-blowing accuracy when throwing on the run. Receiver DK Metcalf exploded in Year 2 in the pros and will see even more touches if Pete Carroll can take his damn hands off the wheel.

What will lose bets: Defense
Seattle’s stop unit gave up 30.4 points per game in the first eight outings of the season then suddenly slammed the door in the second half of the schedule, allowing a mere 16 points per contest. I’m calling bullshit. Here are the QBs the Seahawks faced in those final eight games: Jared Goff x2, Kyler Murray (injured shoulder), Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, and C.J. Beathard. Little was done to improve this defensive group this offseason. Seattle backers will curse them. Over bettors should send them a fruit basket.

Seattle Seahawks game-by-game odds
It’s wild to think Seattle is a point spread favorite only once in the first six games of the season (with a pick’em in there). Things could snowball quickly if the Seahawks get off to a rough start. They play three of their first four on the road and four of six away from home to start the year. All that Wilson drama from back in the winter could come bubbling to the surface if the losses start stacking up.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ Indianapolis +3 52

2 vs Tennessee -3.5 49.5

3 @ Minnesota +1.5 48

4 @ San Francisco +3.5 46.5

5 vs L.A. Rams PK 48

6 @ Pittsburgh +2.5 48

7 vs New Orleans -3 48

8 vs Jacksonville -7.5 48

9 BYE

10 @ Green Bay +3 49.5

11 vs Arizona -3.5 50.5

12 @ Washington -2.5 46.5

13 vs San Francisco -1.5 45.5

14 @ Houston -7 48.5

15 @ L.A. Rams +4 48

16 vs Chicago -5.5 45

17 vs Detroit -9.5 45

18 @ Arizona +2 49

Early season forecast

The 2021 opener finds Seattle inside the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium, getting 2.5 points from the Colts in this 1 p.m. ET Week 1 start. This total is a lofty 52 points, and the Seahawks are an incredible 15-2 Over/Under in non-conference road games since Wilson became QB1 in 2012. That said, you have a Seahawks offense working in a new coordinator and Indy breaking in a new QB in Carson Wentz.

Week 2 is the return of the “12s” to Lumen Field after being locked out during the pandemic-stricken 2020 campaign. Seattle is giving 3.5 points to the visiting Titans and is 16-2 SU (11-7 ATS) at home versus non-conference foes since 2012. Seattle hasn’t lost a home opener in that span, going 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS.

A trip to Minnesota awaits the Seahawks in Week 3, where bookies have set them as slight road underdogs. Seattle is a remarkable 17-8-2 ATS as a road dog in Wilson’s tenure as the No. 1 passer but a road trip to San Francisco in Week 4 could set the stage for a lookahead versus the Vikings.

Spot bet

Week 8 vs Jacksonville -7.5

There are a few things that make this a dangerous spot for the Seahawks:

1. Based on the slog that is the first seven games of the schedule, Seattle could be in bad shape and looking ahead to a much-needed bye in Week 9.

2. The Jags have plenty of inside intel on their Week 8 foes, with four former Seattle assistants on Urban Meyer’s staff, including former offensive coordinators Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer.

3. The Seahawks are on a short week and a possible letdown spot after a Monday Night Football shootout with the Saints in Week 7.

4. That half-point hook on the touchdown spread could just be enough to burn Seattle bettors. And we’re well aware of how the Seahawks love them some one-score games.

Totals tip

The identity crisis that was the Seahawks’ 2020 season manifested itself into some wild swings in Over/Under results. Seattle went 6-2 O/U in the first half of the calendar and 1-7 O/U in the back half of the schedule.

Books are bracing for a pile of points, with a couple of 50-plus numbers showing up in the lookahead totals and three others at 49 or 49.5. If the playbook goes pass-heavy like Wilson wants and the defense stinks as bad as I think it will, those numbers will be on the rise.

Star power props: DK Metcalf, WR
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +12,500
Receiving leader +1,100
Receiving yards total 1,350.5 (Over -130)
Best prop: Over 1,350.5 receiving yards (-130)

Metcalf mashed his way to 1,303 receiving yards in 2020 but when the Seahawks’ offense had the power pulled, so did DK’s big-play production. He was on pace for over 1,500 yards in the first eight games (788 total yards on 43 catches) but mustered just 515 yards despite catching only three fewer balls in the second half of the season.

With Waldron looking to push the tempo with the pass game – a hard break from Carroll’s run-heavy philosophies – Metcalf will see an uptick in targets. Even with teams throwing extra bodies at him, the 6-foot-4 freak of nature will eclipse this modest player prop.

Trend to know

The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS as divisional road underdogs since 2012 and catch points at L.A., San Francisco and Arizona this season.

Divisional road games

Week 4 @ San Francisco +3.5
Week 15 @ L.A. Rams +4
Week 18 @ Arizona +2

Where can I bet on the NFL?

You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

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Las Vegas Raiders 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Vegas Is Bullish On It's Hometown Team

Derek Carr and Las Vegas have the weapons to again be a lethal passing attack. But with a weak defense and a likely bigger emphasis on the run game, is that aerial attack — and the Raiders overall — something you should be betting on to succeed?

The Las Vegas Raiders get a second chance at a first impression in 2021 after watching the pandemic dull the excitement of their first season in Sin City. With fans in the stands, you can be sure the bulk of those butts are betting on games, so get ready for some random roars when a particular prop hits.

Cirque du Soleil isn’t the only high-flying show in town, with Vegas possessing one of the top passing games in the NFL. But can the defense do enough for Raiders Nation to cash in?

Here’s our 2021 Las Vegas NFL betting preview.

Las Vegas Raiders futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +6,000
To Win Conference +3,000
To Win Division +1,600
To Make Playoffs Yes +330/No -400
Season Win Total O/U 7.5 (Under -130)
Best futures bet: Over 7.5 wins (+110)

Scouring the schedule, you can squeeze eight wins out of the Raiders, who finished 8-8 SU in a COVID-stricken 16-game 2020 season. While they play back-to-back home games just once (Week 10 and Week 11) they only travel to the East Coast for 1 p.m. ET starts twice (Steelers and Giants) and have just two other 1 p.m. kickoffs (Kansas City and Indianapolis) on the slate.

With the Chargers in a major coaching transition and the Broncos’ QB questions stacking up, the window is open for Jon Gruden’s group to slide up in the AFC West. The Raiders picked up a win in Arrowhead and lost to the Chiefs by four points at home last year, proving they can trade punches with the two-time conference champs. “Vegas” may not have faith in Vegas — but I do.

What will win bets: Offense

Derek Carr takes a lot of shit, but just look at the numbers he and this offense put up. Carr finished 10th in passer rating in 2020 with 4,103 yards and 27 touchdown passes, to only nine interceptions, in a playbook that threw less than 56 percent of the time... but still scored over 27 points per game.

The receiving corps is loaded with talent, including second-year WR Henry Ruggs III, burner John Brown, Hunter Renfrow, and breakout TE Darren Waller. Complementing that air attack is running backs Josh Jacobs and underrated pickup Kenyan Drake. The offensive line is a big project after a mass exile of starters but this blocking unit played through the plague last year, plugging in new bodies almost every week.

What will lose bets: Defense

Bringing in Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator is a good start, but Las Vegas has a long way to go with this stop unit. The Raiders ranked 28th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders in 2020 and allowed nearly 30 points per game.

Bradley’s schemes protect against home run plays, but don’t cause much chaos up front and are going to take some time to meld. Gruden may feel like he has to protect this unit by grinding out the ground game and dominating possession, which takes touches away from the Raiders’ real strength (passing). It’s a vicious cycle.

Las Vegas Raiders game-by-game odds
Bookies aren’t buying into the Silver and Black in 2021, with Las Vegas a point spread favorite in only six of 17 games this year, with a pick’em in place for Week 3 versus Miami. The Raiders were handed the seventh toughest schedule, according to SOS, and close out the year with five foes all with win total projections of nine games or more (three of those matchups coming on the road).

Home-field advantage is always a tough nut to quantify (is it really worth three points to the spread?) and may not exist in Vegas, with opposing fans more than happy to travel to Sin City for some fun and football. Will the “Vegas flu” balance this out? We’ve seen road teams struggle against the NHL’s Golden Knights at times, possibly succumbing to the delectable distractions of Vegas.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 vs Baltimore +4 51

2 @ Pittsburgh +5.5 49

3 vs Miami PK 46.5

4 @ L.A. Chargers +4 49.5

5 vs Chicago -3.5 46.5

6 @ Denver +3.5 47

7 vs Philadelphia -3.5 48.5

8 BYE

9 @ N.Y. Giants +1.5 47.5

10 vs Kansas City +7.5 53.5

11 vs Cincinnati -4.5 50

12 @ Dallas +5.5 53

13 vs Washington -2.5 47.5

14 @ Kansas City +10.5 53

15 @ Cleveland +6.5 50

16 vs Denver -2.5 47

17 @ Indianapolis +6 49.5

18 vs L.A. Chargers -1.5 48.5

Early season forecast

A retooled offensive line and a new defensive coordinator will be tested hard in the opening games of 2021, with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami on deck: three teams with solid defenses and capable offensive attacks.

The Death Star will be rocking for a Monday Night Football opener in Week 1, giving the Raiders the Vegas debut they deserve. This line opened Raiders +6.5 but has trimmed considerably since going up in the spring, now sitting at +4. Las Vegas was a solid bet when getting four or more points in 2020, finishing 3-1 ATS in those contests.

The AFC North tour continues when Vegas crosses the country to play the Steelers in Week 2 for a 1 p.m. ET start. Those early kickoffs were a thorn in the side of this franchise when it was in Oakland, going 1-7 ATS in 1 p.m. starts between 2017 and 2019. However, last year the Vegas Raiders were 3-3 ATS in those situations and are currently catching +5.5 in Pittsburgh. Depending on how Week 1 rolls out, this line could climb to +6 or higher, so wait it out if you like the visitor.

Miami makes its way West in this battle of the two best party cities in the U.S. (sorry Nashville). The Dolphins edged the Raiders 26-25 with a last-second field goal in Week 16 of last year, but Vegas covered as a 2-point home dog. The 46.5-point total is tied as the lowest Over/Under on the 2021 board for Las Vegas, which didn’t face a number this low in 2020. However, the Oakland Raiders went 15-11-1 O/U against sub-47 totals between 2014 and 2019 (since Carr was QB1).

Spot bet

Week 11 @ N.Y. Giants +1.5

We’ve already mentioned the franchise’s follies when it comes to 1 p.m. ET kickoffs (4-10 ATS since 2017) and the Raiders face another early cross-country kickoff in Week 11, traveling to the Meadowlands in November (pretty much the exact opposite of Las Vegas).

This game comes on the heels of a bye week, which isn’t great for Gruden who is 0-3 ATS following a bye in his second go-around with the Raiders. Piling on to this situational sandwich is a massive lookahead spot with rivals Kansas City coming to town for a Sunday nighter in Week 12.

Totals tip

Las Vegas was the top Over bet in the NFL in 2020, posting a 12-3-1 O/U count thanks to a 10th-ranked scoring offense and piss-poor defense. Things will likely stay the same for the Raiders, as the makeup of the 2021 squad is similar.

That said, bookies are padding the numbers for Vegas’ totals. There are only two totals of sub-47 on the board and five of 50-plus, according to the current lookahead lines. The Silver and Black were 8-2-1 O/U against totals of 50 or more last season.

It may not be so cut and dry when capping the Raiders totals in 2021. The offense could stall because of the o-line shakeup and the defense under Bradley should improve (can’t get much worse), which could trickle down in varying Over/Under results.

Star power props: Derek Carr, QB
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +6,000
Passing leader +2,800
Passing Yards total 4,075.5 (Over -115)
Passing TD Total 25.5 (Under -130)
Best prop: Under 4,075 yards passing (-115)

This prop total is calling for a slight decline in Carr’s production after he posted 4,103 yards passing in 2020. But playing the Under is by no means a knock on Carr, who has pretty much been at this number the past three seasons.

The reason I lean Under here is that the running game could see substantial work if the defense needs protection — and it will early on. With a two-headed beast of Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas can hold on to the football and minimize the exposure of the stop unit. Obviously, that takes the football out of Carr’s hands.

Trend to know

In their first year in Sin City, the Raiders went 5-0-1 Over/Under in games pegged as home underdogs, and since 2014 — when Carr came aboard — this franchise is 20-11-1 O/U when set as a home pup (64.5 percent Overs). Las Vegas is getting the points in two home games in 2021.

Raiders totals as home underdogs

Week 1: vs. Ravens 51
Week 10:vs. Kansas City 53.5

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Kansas City Chiefs 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Back and Better Than Before

Kansas City has been to back-to-back Super Bowls but will enter the 2021 season with a chip after its Big Game loss in February. What can slow down these Chiefs — if anything? Check out our betting preview for the Kansas City Chiefs.

What’s more motivating than defending a Super Bowl title? How about avenging a Super Bowl loss? The Kansas City Chiefs suffered only three defeats in 2020, unfortunately, one of those Ls was served up by Tampa Bay on Super Sunday.

We’ve seen Big Game losers go bust in the following season, but Kansas City has plenty of Pedialyte and greasy breakfasts – in the form of elite talent and top-notch coaching – to avoid the Super Bowl hangover. That’s evidenced by the mountain of points KC is dishing out to foes almost every week.

Here’s our 2021 Kansas City Chiefs NFL betting preview.

Kansas City Chiefs futures odds

Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +500
To Win Conference +250
To Win Division -250
To Make Playoffs Yes -900 / No +600
Season Win Total O/U 12.5 (Over -110)
Best futures bet: Win AFC Championship +250

A third straight AFC title in is the work for Kansas City. Outside of the Bills and Ravens, no one really comes close to the Chiefs in the conference and all the other serious Super Bowl contenders are in the NFC. On top of that, the road to the Super Bowl likely goes through Arrowhead in late January.

If you’re looking for a little more bang for your futures buck, look to the Super Bowl matchups odds. I’m high on Kansas City and the L.A. Rams, which would pay +2,600 if they clashed inside SoFi Stadium on Super Bowl Sunday.

What will win bets: Offense

The reason why the Chiefs are massive chalk in most games is also your best shot of covering those piles of points. It’s madness to think Patrick Mahomes is only entering Year 4 as the starter and Canton is already getting his measurements for a gold jacket.

Around Mahomes is an embarrassing amount of game-breaking talent, including sophomore Swiss Army Knife Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And the one glaring weakness from 2020 – the offensive line – has been retooled and is now projected to be one of the best in the league.

What will lose bets: Complacency

After two straight Super Bowl appearances, the regular season is starting to feel like a formality to the Chiefs, who are the biggest division favorites in the AFC. We’ve seen this group go on extended cold streaks for bettors, most notably at the end of the year when spreads inflate to match the public appeal and the mind starts to drift to the postseason. Kansas City is 7-12-2 ATS from Week 10 onward over the past three campaigns, including a 1-7 ATS mark to close out 2020. As good as KC is, there’s a tipping point with those lofty spreads.

Kansas City Chiefs game-by-game odds
The Chiefs are point spread favorites in 15 of 17 games right now, with a pick’em at Baltimore in Week 2 and the Week 9 showdown with the Packers off the board (it’s likely KC will be slight chalk in that one). Their 2021 slate ranks T-11 in terms of strength of schedule.

Kansas City faces an average spread of -6.75 and if you drop the -3 at Denver in Week 18 (obviously padding against the Chiefs resting starters ahead of the playoffs), that average climbs to a cool touchdown. But as good as the Chiefs are, they’re just 9-12-1 ATS as favorites of a TD or more – something that occurs nine times in 2021.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 vs Cleveland -6.5 53.5

2 @ Baltimore PK 51.5

3 vs L.A. Chargers -7.5 52.5

4 @ Philadelphia -8 50.5

5 vs Buffalo -4.5 54.5

6 @ Washington -6.5 50.5

7 @ Tennessee -4.5 54.5

8 vs N.Y. Giants -10 49

9 vs Green Bay OTB OTB

10 @ Las Vegas -7.5 53.5

11 vs Dallas -7.5 55

12 BYE

13 vs Denver -9.5 50

14 vs Las Vegas -10.5 53

15 @ L.A. Chargers -6.5 52

16 vs Pittsburgh -8.5 50

17 @ Cincinnati -7.5 49.5

18 @ Denver -3 45.5

Early season forecast

The Chiefs have three solid matchups right out of the gate, which should help tell us if Mahomes & Co. are on a revenge tour or still stinging from that Super Bowl spanking.

Week 1 is a rewind of the AFC Divisional Round, hosting the Browns as 6.5-point favorites after this spread jumped as much as a full point from -5.5. Cleveland lost 22-17 to Kansas City last January, after clawing back from a 19-3 hole, to the dismay of Chiefs bettors who laid 7.5 points. The Chiefs have won and covered in four straight home openers going back to 2017 but Super Bowl losers are just 9-12 SU and 5-16 ATS in Week 1 of the following season. Hmmmmm...

One of the most anticipated games of the entire 2021 schedule holds court in Week 2 when Kansas City visits Baltimore. The Chiefs went into M&T Bank Stadium and dished out a 34-20 ransack of the Ravens last September as 3.5-point road underdogs. This line is calling for a close contest, currently sitting pick’em, which could make KC backers nervous if it moves toward the visitors. The Chiefs were 9-0 SU but just 1-8 ATS in one-score games last year.

The Chiefs kickoff divisional play back home versus the L.A. Chargers in Week 3, giving the touchdown with a nasty half-point hook in a potential letdown spot after that clash with Baltimore. The Bolts are always live road dogs and Kansas City is 4-2 SU but just 2-3-1 ATS versus Los Angeles since Mahomes got the starting job.

Spot bet

Week 13: vs Denver (-9.5)

Betting Andy Reid off the bye week has lost a little steam but this process still holds a 19-3 SU record and 14-8 ATS count since Reid took over the head coaching role in Philadelphia back in 1999. The Chiefs have a bye in Week 12 which has Andy backers laying the lumber against the Broncos in Week 13. Books have KC pegged as 9.5-point home chalk to Denver for this 1 p.m. ET start. This game is part of a four-week span that sees the Chiefs stay in Arrowhead for three straight games.

Totals tip

The 2021 lookahead lines see 13 of the Chiefs’ games with totals of 50 points or more (likely 14 when that Green Bay line comes back out). The highest among them is a 55-point peak versus Dallas in Week 11 – currently the tallest Over/Under for the entire 2021 season.

Kansas City went 8-8 O/U in 2020 and is 30-25-1 O/U since 2018. You would think with all those big spreads, a Chiefs-Over same-game parlay would be a popular pick. And if you fell into that most public of public plays, you’d be doing your bookie a favor. Kansas City is 4-9 Over/Under when pegged as a double-digit favorite while going 5-7-1 ATS in those outings since 2018.

Star power props: Patrick Mahomes QB

Player prop Odds to win
MVP +450
Passing leader +275
Passing yards total 5,100.5 yards (Over -120)
Passing TD total 39.5 (Under -130)
Best prop: Over 39.5 passing TDs (Over -110)

Besides the ample home run hitters at Mahomes’ disposal, the most vital part to this prop going Over is the new offensive line. Last season, Mahomes was hurried 64 times (sixth-most), sacked 22 times, and was forced to scramble on 40 snaps designed as a pass (also sixth). He finished the season with 38 touchdown passes in 15 games. This is Andy Reid’s offense so the pass attempts are coming and Mahomes should have plenty of time and clean air to find those playmakers downfield.

Trend to know

We called out the Chiefs for slowing down in the back end of the schedule, however, this team does get off to strong starts each season. Kansas City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games in September, making the most of those spreads before the public pumps them up later on.

September games

Week 1: vs. Cleveland -6.5
Week 2: @ Baltimore PK
Week 3: vs. L.A. Chargers -7.5

[StarDust Bum]

Denver Broncos 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Books Love the Broncos D, but Will the Offense Hold Them Back?

The Denver Broncos are healthy and should have a lethal defense once again. But with the QB position still a question mark, is this a team you can bet on — especially considering Denver is currently favored in nine games this year?

As the old saying goes, “If you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t have any.” While the rest of the AFC West are locked into their starting QBs, the Denver Broncos are on the fence between young Drew Lock and veteran ATS ATM Teddy Bridgewater.

Broncos bettors may be hoping for Teddy B, who’s an incredible 36-14 ATS all-time as a starter, but Denver needs more than Bridgewater to bring home the bacon. All eyes are on Vic Fangio’s defense, which should return to its spot among the league’s elite stop units.

Check out our 2021 Denver Broncos NFL betting preview.

Denver Broncos futures odds

Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +3,000
To Win Conference +1,500
To Win Division +700
To Make Playoffs Yes +145/No -165
Season Win Total O/U 9 (Under -120)
Best futures bet: No playoffs (-165)

Denver has had trouble versus the AFC West (see below) and while its schedule ranks 24th in terms of SOS, there aren’t many layups on the calendar. The Broncos play on the East Coast three times in the first five weeks and close the year with five of their final seven contest against divisional rivals — a stretch that will make or break those playoff hopes.

The 2021 season win totals say the Broncos are playing for third in the AFC West (KC 12.5, L.A. 9.5) and will be in a dog fight for the seventh and final ticket to the tournament with the likes of Tennessee, Miami, New England, and Pittsburgh.

What will win bets: Pass Defense

Injuries ripped Denver’s defense apart at the seams in 2020. The pass rush was inconsistent, but still posted 42 sacks, and there was no danger element to this unit, recording a mere 16 takeaways. Despite that, the Broncos still finished 13th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders (albeit 25th against the run).

Pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Von Miller are nightmare material for opposing QBs — when healthy — and the secondary improved greatly by drafting Patrick Surtain II and signing Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller.

What will lose bets: Quarterbacks

Broncos fans were holding out hope that Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson would climb the mountain in 2021. For now, they’re left with Lock and Bridgewater. Those aren’t horrible options, but they aren’t covering the spread on their own — despite what Bridgewater’s insane ATS record says.

Lock is as raw as Eddie Murphy in a purple leather suit and could reel it in during Year 2 under Pat Shurmur but was ranked 31st out of 34 NFL QBs by The Athletic due to his wild inconsistency. As for Bridgewater, he’s the example of consistent: consistently adequate. He’s banking on the Broncos defense to win games and avoiding any pressure on his aging frame to make big plays.

Denver Broncos game-by-game odds

Denver is giving the points in nine of its 17 games in 2021, including being pegged as the chalk in three straight outings to start the season — twice as a road favorite. That’s a wild swing for Vic Fangio’s squad, which closed as an underdog in every game in 2020 (9-7 ATS).

The Broncos’ schedule is backloaded with AFC West rivals, playing five of their six divisional games after the Week 11 bye. Under Fangio, Denver is just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS versus AFC West rivals, including a 1-5 SU count and 2-4 ATS in road divisional dances.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ N.Y. Giants -1 42.5

2 @ Jacksonville -1.5 43.5

3 vs N.Y. Jets -5.5 42.5

4 vs Baltimore +3.5 45

5 @ Pittsburgh +4.5 45

6 vs Las Vegas -3.5 47

7 @ Cleveland +7 44.5

8 vs Washington -3 43

9 @ Dallas +4.5 47

10 vs Philadelphia -5.5 45.5

11 BYE

12 vs L.A. Chargers -2.5 45.5

13 @ Kansas City +9.5 50

14 vs Detroit -7.5 43.5

15 vs Cincinnati -5.5 45

16 @ Las Vegas +2.5 47

17 @ L.A. Chargers +3 45

18 vs Kansas City +3 45.5

Early season forecast

The Broncos stop unit feasts on some weaker quarterbacks in the opening three weeks of 2021, which sets them up for a strong start despite playing back-to-back roadies out East to kick off the campaign.

The season opens in the Meadowlands against the Giants, with Denver dealing one point to the host side for a 4:25 p.m. ET start. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur should have some inside intel on the G-Men, given he was their OC for two seasons before coming to Denver. This line opened New York -1 but with the Rodgers rumors bubbling up this summer, early bettors tried to get out ahead of a potential blockbuster deal and action on the Broncos swung the spread over the fence.

Denver stays coastal for a Week 2 venture down to Jacksonville, laying another slim spread as road chalk. The Broncos defense gets its first taste of No. 1-overall pick Trevor Lawrence in this 1 p.m. ET start. In two years under Fangio, this team is 7-3 ATS in non-divisional road games (4-6 SU) but was never the favorite in those away contests.

One of my favorite long-term trends with teeth is back on the board in Week 3 for the Broncos’ first home game. Denver is a desirable 18-3 SU and 13-4-4 ATS in home openers since 2000. The narrative is there: opponents aren’t quite in game shape this early into the season and must go up to Mile High and play in the energy-sapping thin air. The Jets are catching 5.5 points in this tough spot, coming off matchups with Buffalo and Tampa Bay — and likely starting a rookie QB in Zach Wilson.

Spot bet

Week 7 @ Cleveland +7

That Week 3 home opener is one hell of a spot for Broncos backers. But when it comes to possible play-against situational capping, circle the Thursday Night Football date in Cleveland in Week 7. This will be Denver’s fourth road trip in the first seven weeks and is played on a short turnaround. In contrast, this meeting is the middle of three straight home stands for the Browns.

Totals tip

Denver wrapped 2020 with an even 8-8 Over/Under clip but sided with the Under in five of its final eight games. The 2021 totals are calling for plenty of low-scoring finishes, as outside of a 50-point number at Kansas City in Week 13, the remainder of the Broncos’ O/U totals are at 47 points or less with bookies giving this defense its due.

Vic Fangio’s stop unit has done right by Under backers against AFC West opponents, posting a 4-8 Over/Under record in divisional contests since 2019. This trend isn’t only reserved to this current coaching staff either, as Denver is 13-21-2 O/U in divisional contests since 2015 — a 62 percent Under payday.

Star power props: Jerry Jeudy, WR
Player prop Odds to win
Receiving Yards Leader +6,600
Receiving Yards Total 920.5 (Over -115)
Receptions Total 68.5 (Over -115)
Receiving TD Total 4.5 (Over -150)
Best prop: Under 68.5 receptions (-115)

Jeudy had a solid rookie campaign, considering the quality of company throwing him the football. He snagged 52 balls on 113 targets but also got dinged for 12 drops — second-most in the NFL.

He instantly became Denver’s top target when Courtland Sutton went down with an ACL tear in Week 2. Sutton is back for 2021 and was a beast in 2019 (72 receptions/1,112 yards), which will take away plenty of Jeudy’s touches. Mix in a possible game of musical chairs at QB and a lack of chemistry and timing could plague this passing game.

Trend to know

As mentioned, the Broncos haven’t been pegged as favorites much since Fangio took over in 2019. In fact, Denver is 2-3 ATS as the chalk in that span. Expectations are higher in 2021, as books have the Broncos giving points in nine games.

That could be an issue.

Denver has had a devil of a time covering as a fave for a while now, boasting a 16-25-3 ATS record (39%) in those spots since 2015. Even in a place like Empower Field at Mile High, with its built-in home-field advantage of thin air and cold weather, the Broncos are just 8-15-3 ATS (35%) as home favorites over the past six seasons.

Denver is laying points in seven home stands this year.

Games with Broncos as home favorites in 2021

Week 3: -3.5 vs. Jets
Week 6: -3.5 vs. Raiders
Week 8: -3 vs. Washington
Week 10: -5.5 vs. Eagles
Week 12: -2.5 vs. Chargers
Week 14: -7.5 vs. Lions
Week 15: -5.5 vs. Bengals

[StarDust Bum]

Denver Broncos 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Books Love the Broncos D, but Will the Offense Hold Them Back?

The Denver Broncos are healthy and should have a lethal defense once again. But with the QB position still a question mark, is this a team you can bet on — especially considering Denver is currently favored in nine games this year?

As the old saying goes, “If you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t have any.” While the rest of the AFC West are locked into their starting QBs, the Denver Broncos are on the fence between young Drew Lock and veteran ATS ATM Teddy Bridgewater.

Broncos bettors may be hoping for Teddy B, who’s an incredible 36-14 ATS all-time as a starter, but Denver needs more than Bridgewater to bring home the bacon. All eyes are on Vic Fangio’s defense, which should return to its spot among the league’s elite stop units.

Check out our 2021 Denver Broncos NFL betting preview.

Denver Broncos futures odds

Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +3,000
To Win Conference +1,500
To Win Division +700
To Make Playoffs Yes +145/No -165
Season Win Total O/U 9 (Under -120)
Best futures bet: No playoffs (-165)

Denver has had trouble versus the AFC West (see below) and while its schedule ranks 24th in terms of SOS, there aren’t many layups on the calendar. The Broncos play on the East Coast three times in the first five weeks and close the year with five of their final seven contest against divisional rivals — a stretch that will make or break those playoff hopes.

The 2021 season win totals say the Broncos are playing for third in the AFC West (KC 12.5, L.A. 9.5) and will be in a dog fight for the seventh and final ticket to the tournament with the likes of Tennessee, Miami, New England, and Pittsburgh.

What will win bets: Pass Defense

Injuries ripped Denver’s defense apart at the seams in 2020. The pass rush was inconsistent, but still posted 42 sacks, and there was no danger element to this unit, recording a mere 16 takeaways. Despite that, the Broncos still finished 13th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders (albeit 25th against the run).

Pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Von Miller are nightmare material for opposing QBs — when healthy — and the secondary improved greatly by drafting Patrick Surtain II and signing Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller.

What will lose bets: Quarterbacks

Broncos fans were holding out hope that Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson would climb the mountain in 2021. For now, they’re left with Lock and Bridgewater. Those aren’t horrible options, but they aren’t covering the spread on their own — despite what Bridgewater’s insane ATS record says.

Lock is as raw as Eddie Murphy in a purple leather suit and could reel it in during Year 2 under Pat Shurmur but was ranked 31st out of 34 NFL QBs by The Athletic due to his wild inconsistency. As for Bridgewater, he’s the example of consistent: consistently adequate. He’s banking on the Broncos defense to win games and avoiding any pressure on his aging frame to make big plays.

Denver Broncos game-by-game odds

Denver is giving the points in nine of its 17 games in 2021, including being pegged as the chalk in three straight outings to start the season — twice as a road favorite. That’s a wild swing for Vic Fangio’s squad, which closed as an underdog in every game in 2020 (9-7 ATS).

The Broncos’ schedule is backloaded with AFC West rivals, playing five of their six divisional games after the Week 11 bye. Under Fangio, Denver is just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS versus AFC West rivals, including a 1-5 SU count and 2-4 ATS in road divisional dances.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ N.Y. Giants -1 42.5

2 @ Jacksonville -1.5 43.5

3 vs N.Y. Jets -5.5 42.5

4 vs Baltimore +3.5 45

5 @ Pittsburgh +4.5 45

6 vs Las Vegas -3.5 47

7 @ Cleveland +7 44.5

8 vs Washington -3 43

9 @ Dallas +4.5 47

10 vs Philadelphia -5.5 45.5

11 BYE

12 vs L.A. Chargers -2.5 45.5

13 @ Kansas City +9.5 50

14 vs Detroit -7.5 43.5

15 vs Cincinnati -5.5 45

16 @ Las Vegas +2.5 47

17 @ L.A. Chargers +3 45

18 vs Kansas City +3 45.5

Early season forecast

I’m predicting a pricky start to the season for Los Angeles, based on its competition and time needed to adapt to the overhaul in both offensive and defensive playbooks.

Week 1 will be a test for Lombardi and Herbert, crossing the country for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) in DC. The Football Team is a disruptive defense that ranked third in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and created all kinds of chaos with 23 takeaways and 47 sacks in 2020. This game opened a pick’em but early play on L.A. has the Chargers as high as -1.5. The Bolts are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine season openers going back to their time in San Diego.

The home opener should be one of the more entertaining games in Week 2 — if this 52-point total has any say — with the Cowboys coming to town. This will be the Chargers’ second straight non-conference game to start 2021. Los Angeles is 10-6 ATS versus NFC foes the past four years but just 4-4 ATS at home in those non-con contests.

The real season begins for the Bolts in Week 3, venturing to Arrowhead to play the Chiefs. Bookies are spotting the Chargers 7.5 points in Kansas City — a role Bolts bettors love. Since moving to L.A., this team is 11-5-3 ATS as a road underdog in the regular season. What’s more: Going back to 2000, this franchise is 21-11-7 ATS as a road dog visiting a divisional opponent (3-1-2 ATS since moving to L.A. 2017).

Spot bet

Week 8 vs New England -2.5

I’m not a big believer in revenge spots when it comes to pro sports, but the Bolts have a bone to pick with the Patriots after eating a 45-0 shit sandwich at home in Week 13 of last year. Not only is Herbert looking to redeem himself (26/53, 209 yards, 2 INT) but this matchup comes after the Chargers’ bye in Week 7. That’s two weeks to fine-tune those new playbooks and stew on last year’s ass waxing. I love the home side under the field goal.

Totals tip

The Chargers finished with a 9-7 Over/Under count in 2020 but was a noticeable 6-2 O/U in the role of visitor. Los Angeles scored more than four points extra per road game, which was enough to top the total on most road trips.

While both units are under new coordinators and undergoing massive changes, the defense could have the leg up on the offense — especially with Staley’s defensive chops coming over from the Rams and a healthy Derwin James at safety. The scoring attack could stall as Herbert & Co. adjust and the Bolts have some of their higher totals of the year at the front of the schedule. That opens up Under value for games in September and October.

Star power props: Justin Herbert, QB
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +2,000
Passing leader +1,000
Passing yards total 4,675 (Under -140)
Best prop: Under 4,675.5 yards passing (-140)

In 15 games last season, Herbert let if fly for 4,336 yards. Had he started in Week 1 instead of Tyrod Taylor, the then-rookie might have sniffed this passing yards total for 2021. Herbert’s first year was record-setting, which puts the bar high for his sophomore effort. But opponents now have a full season worth of tape on the youngster and he’s got to learn a brand new system: a system originally orchestrated for an all-time great. We’ve seen other standout QBs regress in their second year in the pros — and the same fate awaits Herbert.

Trend to know

We mentioned the L.A. Chargers’ resolve as road underdogs, going 11-5-3 ATS in regular season games when getting the points away from home. The Bolts are also 5-2-2 ATS when getting a field goal or less on the road. Currently, two games fall into that category but more of those short lines could swing over the fence if L.A. gets off to a rough start.

Road games between +3 and +1

Week 12: @ Broncos +2.5
Week 18: @ Raiders +1.5

[StarDust Bum]

The Must-Bet NFL Games of the 2021 Season

It's never too soon to start thinking about NFL betting. Jason Logan runs through each week of the 2021 schedule, giving his best angles and edges for the must-bet games of the NFL season.

It’s the beginning of summer, so naturally, savvy sports bettors are starting to think about the fall and beyond. And that means betting on the NFL.

The 2021 NFL schedule dropped back in May and many sportsbooks followed suit with spreads and Over/Under totals for every single game on the slate, from Week 1 to the shiny new Week 18.

I’m combing through those matchups and calling out the must-bet NFL games for each week on the calendar. Some of those are big-time games between Super Bowl contenders and other contests present some unique NFL betting edges that take advantage of the lookahead lines.

The new campaign kicks off on September 9, so with no time to spare, here are my must-bet NFL games for 2021, as well as each week’s honorable mention.

Week 1
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 50.5)
As of this minute, Aaron Rodgers is still the Packers' starting quarterback, but all signs this summer point to him either opting out of the season or forcing Green Bay to deal him elsewhere. And because of that uncertainty, this spread has moved from Saints -1.5 to -2.5. But what about the total?

The Over/Under is sitting at 50.5 points despite the Saints wishing Drew Brees all the best in retirement and the Packers possibly left with a QB making his first NFL start on the road in Week 1 or… Blake Bortles. I don’t like tying up money for long periods but I’ve already bet the Under in this opener, banking on it being a messy game.

Honorable mention

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 52)
Being that this is season opener on Thursday night, and it not only includes my Cowboys but the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers, we can’t ignore our first taste of real NFL betting action since Brady & Co. partied with Lombardi.

And, of course, we love the Week 1 trend around reigning Super Bowl champs, who are 14-6-1 ATS in their season opener since 2000. That’s a 70 percent winner right there. If you’re buying into that trend as well as Brady and the Bucs, you might want to bet this now since it’s below the touchdown.

Week 2
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (Pick, 51.5)
You know it’s going to be a hell of a game when the spread is sitting pick’em. Depending on where you bet, this Sunday Night Football showdown is being dealt between -110 flat and Kansas City -1.

This primetime matchup will hold a ton of parlay liability for bookies and the knee-jerk reactions from Week 1 could swing this spread, depending on how K.C. and Baltimore do in their openers. The Chiefs thumped the Ravens 34-20 in Week 3 of last year, shutting down Lamar Jackson to just 180 total yards of offense.

Honorable mention

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 49.5)
With Julio in tow, the Titans come to Seattle in Week 2 where the infamous 12th Man will make its return to Lumen Field after going dark due to COVID-19 last season. The Seahawks are not only 16-2 SU (11-7 ATS) at home versus non-conference opponents since Russell Wilson took over under center, but Seattle has never lost a home opener in that span, going 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS since 2012.

Week 3
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 42.5)
And speaking of holding your own in home openers, the Broncos are one of the best long-term bets in those spots, going back to 2000. Denver is 18-3 SU and 13-4-4 ATS in those previous 21 home openers. I love this trend because it has a narrative that makes sense: teams aren’t in full game shape this early into the season and must climb the mountain to play the Broncos in the thin air of Mile High.

This year’s unlucky contestant is the New York Jets, who have one of the toughest opening slates with the Bills and Bucs ahead of this trip to Denver. The Jets not only have a rookie head coach in Robert Salah but could have a rookie QB in Zach Wilson going up against Vic Fangio’s vaunted defense in Week 3. New York will likely be 0-2 coming into this game, so you may want to buy the Broncos now under the key number of -6. Oh, and maybe Aaron Rodgers shows up. Who knows?

Honorable mention

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 49.5)
Interesting game. Interesting spread. Interesting trend. Depending on how Matt Stafford fits into Sean McVay’s system, this could be an NFC title game preview. It’s also one of the rare spots on the schedule in which the Bucs are catching the points. On top of all that, defending Super Bowl winners are just 13-23 ATS (20-16 SU) in their first road game of the season since 1985. That’s a lot to ****** ahead of this September 26 contest.

Week 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (+3.5, 49)
This is like watching your ex enter the bar, and who’s that on their arm? Oh, it’s Vince Lombardi. Bill Belichick may have the emotional range of a tire iron but deep down inside that craggy ice cave of a heart, you know he’s a little hurt after watching Tom Brady win the Big Game with the Bucs.

Brady vs. Belichick will put butts in the seats but betting the Under will put dollars in your wallet on Sunday night. Tampa Bay boasts a championship-caliber defense and the Pats get back plenty of key members of the stop unit who opted to sit out the 2020 campaign. Belichick is also the owner of the world’s biggest Tom Brady film collection.

Honorable mention

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47)
Since revenge and reunions are the common themes of Week 4, how about a recall to the 2020 CFP Championship Game? The last two No. 1 overall picks go head-to-head in Week 4 when Trevor Lawrence and the Jags visit Joe Burrow and the Bengals on Thursday Night Football.

Burrow roasted Lawrence’s Clemson team in that national title game, finding WR Ja’Marr Chase for 221 yards and two touchdowns. And what do you know? Chase was Cincinnati’s top choice in this year’s draft. As an LSU fan, this TNF clash brings back great memories.

Week 5
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 54.5)
This AFC Championship Game rematch is the crown jewel of Week 5, earning the big stage of Sunday Night Football. Kansas City knocked off Buffalo 39-24 in that conference title game in January, covering as a field-goal fave and easily going Over the 55-point total.

This primetime game is the lone homestand for the Chiefs between Week 4 and Week 7, and Arrowhead will be rocking, with well-oiled (and vaccinated) fans in the stands. Kansas City is 11-6 ATS in home primetime games since 2000 and hasn’t been this short a favorite at Arrowhead in the regular season since giving 3.5 points to Houston in Week 6 of the 2019 season.

Honorable mention

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Pick’em, 48)
Russell Wilson had better make sure his mouthguard is up to snuff for this Thursday night run-in with the rival L.A. Rams. Los Angeles’ defense has been one of the few stop units able to contain Wilson. He posted a QB rating of just 74.1 with one TD, two INTs, and 11 sacks taken in two regular season meetings with L.A., then lost 30-20 to the Rams in the Wild Card Round, eating another five sacks in that playoff loss. If the Seahawks want to keep Russ happy, keep him upright.

Week 6
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 49)
The Chargers are a sleeper in the AFC with all eyes on the maturation of QB Justin Herbert. This mid-October trip to Baltimore for an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) serves as a litmus test for the Bolts, who went 5-3 ATS on the road in 2020.

The Chargers have been a dependable road bet since moving to La-La Land in 2017, especially when getting more than a field goal from the oddsmakers, boasting a 6-3-1 ATS mark as road underdogs of +3.5 or more.

However, in true Chargers faceplant fashion, the Bolts are 3-7 SU in those contests and seven of those matchups were one-score games. So maybe steer clear of L.A.’s moneyline in this Week 6 matchup. It will be interesting if new head coach Brandon Staley can break that bad habit of losing close games.

Honorable mention

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5, 45.5)
The NFL returns to the UK in 2021 as does the wake-and-rake 9:30 a.m. ET kickoffs. Nothing goes better with NFL betting than scrambled eggs, crispy bacon and a stiff cup of joe. This matchup also gives us a rematch of Tua Tagovailoa vs. Trevor Lawrence, who headlined the 2019 CFP National Championship. This trip across the pond is a tough schedule spot for the Fins, who will be playing their second straight away game and third in four weeks when they take the pitch at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Week 7
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-12, 46)
By the looks of that chunky point spread, this isn’t going to be a good game. But it’s the intrigue around the two quarterbacks – Jared Goff and Matt Stafford – facing their former teams that draws our attention. Rams coach Sean McVay knows Goff better than any QB in the league while Detroit rookie head coach Dan Campbell doesn’t have the same level of intel on Stafford.

The Lions also allowed 41 sacks in 2020 and face an L.A. pass rush that finished second in the NFL with 53 QB kills on the season. Will McVay and Stafford run it up on his former club? McVay is 6-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite since picking up the Rams’ reigns in 2017.

Honorable mention

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+4.5, 54.5)
The last time these AFC heavyweights clashed, the Titans were coughing up a 10-point lead in the second quarter of the 2020 AFC Championship Game, falling victim to another classic Patrick Mahomes comeback. The Chiefs will be playing their third road game in four weeks when they come to Music City in Week 7, while Tennessee is on a short week after hosting Buffalo that Monday night – a result that will have a huge influence on this spread.

Week 8
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 48)
This is a scrub of a game, likely featuring a rookie quarterback getting his first taste of Seattle’s 12th Man, and Wilson's previous two offensive coordinators returning on the opposite sideline. But I circle it for the rare trend tied into Jacksonville in Week 8. The Jaguars are coming off a bye week after playing Miami in London in Week 6 - a situation that once produced a 16-3-3 ATS streak.

However, this unique trend imploded in 2019. Teams coming off a bye after playing a UK game went 0-8 ATS that season. Due to the pandemic, the NFL canceled all of its international contests in 2020 but does have two London games on the board in 2021. The Dolphins strangely don’t get a bye following the Week 6 UK game, but the Jets and Falcons do after matching up at Hotspur Stadium in Week 5. Do what you want with this info...

Honorable mention

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-2, 49.5)
This “Halloween Night Spooktacular” could be a battle of two of the top teams in the NFC or, knowing the Cowboys and Vikings, maybe not. All I know is that I’ll be parked on my couch, “checking” my kids' Trick-or-Treat haul for poison candy. My Over/Under on Reese Cups consumed is pretty much on par with the 49.5-point total. Minnesota topped the number in seven of its eight home stands last season and is 11-5 O/U in its last 16 games inside U.S. Bank Stadium.

Week 9
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5, 49.5)
Yes, I know Green Bay plays Kansas City in Week 9. But baring a change of heart from Aaron Rodgers, that game is a dud. And do we really care about Carolina facing former QB Cam Newton? The Patriots will be on to Mac Jones by the midway mark of the schedule anyways.

This non-conference clash on Sunday Night Football is pretty sexy and should new faces like Matthew Stafford and Julio Jones work out, there’s a surplus of firepower on the field for both sides. Tennessee has a new offensive coordinator in Todd Downing, who will have to navigate Aaron Donald and L.A.’s pass rush. Luckily, he can lean on Derrick Henry to keep the Rams honest and Ryan Tannehill clean.

Honorable mention

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants (-1.5, 47.5)
If you like your spot bets, and God knows I do, the Raiders find themselves in a middle of a situational sandwich in Week 9. Las Vegas has to travel across the country to play a 1 p.m. ET start in the Meadowlands – a scenario that plagued this team when it was in Oakland. Those Raiders were 1-7 ATS in 1 p.m. starts between 2017 and 2019, however, the Sin City Silver and Black were 3-3 ATS in early kickoffs last year. Adding to this tricky kickoff is a possible lookahead spot to a homestand with Kansas City in Week 10.

Week 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team (+6.5, 50.5)
The Ryan Fitzpatrick Bowl in Week 10 is promising plenty of points, despite these two stop units ranking No. 3 and No. 5 respectively in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders last year. That said, Washington and Tampa Bay collided in the Wild Card Round last winter, with the Bucs taking a 31-23 win but the WFT covering as 10-point home pups.

Fitzpatrick is the leader in the clubhouse for the starting QB job in DC entering camp and he does have an underrated receiving corps lined up. That can be good and bad. It’s all or nothing with Fitz, who threw 13 INTs in 15 games with the Dolphins last year. He faces a title-winning defense that picked up 25 takeaways in 2020, including 15 interceptions.

Honorable mention

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3, 49.5)
This is potentially the most entertaining game of the year – if Rodgers sticks around Wisconsin for one more season. Between him and Russell Wilson, the Over/Under on Hail Mary TD bombs is set at 2.5. But you can’t help but notice bookies playing it safe with that sub-50 total. The Packers had only six games with closing totals of less than 50 points last year and went 5-1 O/U in those games.

Week 11
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 55)
This looks to be the highest Over/Under for the entire 2021 NFL season, according to the early lookahead lines. If Dak Prescott stays healthy for the Cowboys, blowing through this double nickel shouldn’t be an issue.

Dallas was an Over bettor’s dream before Dak’s gruesome injury in Week 5 last season, topping totals of 53, 56.5, and 58 points between Week 2 and Week 4. Part of that was the explosive passing game of America’s Team and part of it was a piss poor Dallas defense. Both should be in attendance at Arrowhead Stadium for this Week 11 gem.

Honorable mention

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 48)
The Sunday nighter in Week 11 could hold heavy playoff implications with both the Bolts and Steelers competing for division crowns or at least a Wild Card ticket. Can the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger survive this deep into the season? Pittsburgh fans hope so with the team going 10-6 SU and ATS as road underdogs of less than the field goal since Big Ben took over under center so many moons ago.

Week 12
Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 53)
Turkey. Stuffing. Pumpkin pie. Betting against the Cowboys. Fading America’s Team on Thanksgiving has become a beloved tradition, with Dallas going just 1-9 ATS on Turkey Day the past 10 seasons.

This year, the Cowboys welcome Vegas to Jerry’s World on the holiday which also happens to be their lone homestand in a five-game string from November 21 to December 19. Dallas is coming off a road game at Arrowhead and has just four days before this Thursday matinee in Week 12, which also boasts a lofty total at 53 points.

Honorable mention

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 46.5)
A classic AFC North rivalry between the former Browns and the current Browns on Sunday Night Football. Cleveland caught a 38-6 ass waxing the last time it showed up in M&T Bank Stadium and has been a bad bet on the road in divisional games. The Browns were 0-3 ATS visiting AFC North rivals last season and own a dismal 6-12 ATS mark in divisional road stops since 2015.

Week 13
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+4, 46)
Unlucky Week 13 has a few highlights but we’re looking into this NFC North matchup, with the Vikings playing their second straight road game and their fourth away outing in five weeks. That stretch features two trips to California, including a visit to San Francisco in Week 12 before hopping a plane to Detroit. Hopefully the Vikes are collecting frequent-flyer miles.

The Vikings could also get caught looking ahead to a home game versus Pittsburgh just four days later on Thursday Night Football in Week 14. The Lions are more than likely going to be god awful this year, with a win total of just five, but I’m always on the hunt for feisty underdogs at home.

Honorable mention

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+1.5, 46)
I’m pretty high on Arizona entering Year 3 under Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, but this trip to the Windy City in December could be a shock to the system for the desert-dwelling Cardinals, if the bitter Midwest winter shows up. Arizona is coming off a bye in Week 12, but the Bears enjoy a mini bye after playing on Thursday the previous week.

Week 14
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 53.5)

A potential Super Bowl preview in place for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. Josh Allen’s big arm and ability to wheel-and-deal will get tested by an aggressive Bucs pass rush and ball-hawking secondary. This is the shortest we find Tampa Bay at home in 2021 after it went 6-3 ATS inside Raymond James Stadium all of last year.

Tom Brady was a Bills killer in his time with New England and owns a career 32-3 SU record versus Buffalo, boasting a sterling 97.9 QB rating along with 70 touchdown passes and 25 interceptions in those meetings.

Honorable mention

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 46.5)
Didn’t we just mention this game? In a funky scheduling quirk, the Browns actually play back-to-back games against the Ravens with a Week 13 bye in between. So that’s three straight weeks of film study and prep focused solely on Baltimore. The Ravens, on the other hand, have a trip to Pittsburgh between battles with the Browns, and Week 14 will be the team’s third road game in four weeks.

Week 15
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-4, 48)
This NFC West war will more than likely swing the postseason pendulum in the conference, with both teams expected to contend for the playoffs. And even if one is on the outside looking in, they would love nothing more than to play spoiler in this Week 15 showdown.

As long as Russell Wilson has time on the clock and DK Metcalf clowning defensive backs, Seattle has a shot. The Seahawks are 17-8-2 ATS as road dogs since Wilson was the starter and are 8-2 ATS as divisional road pups.

Honorable mention

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 49)
Oh, the weather outside could be frightful for this December 18 date in Orchard Park. Another frightful thought is the potential sandwich spot facing Buffalo, with the Panthers (and former AFC East rival Sam Darnold) placed between road trips to Tampa Bay in Week 14 and New England in Week 16. All the busted tables in upstate New York may not be able to cover this hefty spread.

Week 16
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+1, 47)
One of the biggest mysteries entering the 2021 NFL season is the San Francisco 49ers. Will this team pick up where it left off before being ravaged by injuries last year? Or is the QB controversy between Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Trey Lance going to consume this once-promising team?

Despite this game being the Niners’ third road trip in December, bookies are giving San Francisco the benefit of the doubt with this lookahead line, setting Tennessee as a slight home underdog in Week 16. The Titans are just 9-27 SU and 14-21-1 ATS when catching points at home since 2010.

Honorable mention

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 48)
The NFC East could be a log jam again in 2021 and this classic rivalry on Sunday Night Football could shakedown as a must-win game for one of these teams. That’s never a great scenario for the Cowboys, who have consistently stubbed their toe in these pressure spots. Washington football fans may want to give themselves a late Xmas present and take the points with the Football Team.

Week 17
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-5.5, 43.5)
We all know Bill Belichick feeds on the souls of rookie quarterbacks, going 20-5 SU against first-year passers since 2000. But what happens when the Hoodie is also starting a rookie QB? That could be the case if Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones square off in this 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Week 17.

This January 2 contest in Gillette Stadium will be a contrasting environment compared to the Florida sun and marks the third road game in four weeks for the Jaguars, who could just be counting down the days until the end of the season at this point. New England, on the other hand, may still be jockeying for position in a competitive AFC East.

Honorable mention

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick’em, 43.5)
So much bad blood on the table and a weighted game on Monday night with potential playoff implications. This is a tough spot for Pittsburgh, which runs the gauntlet to cap the campaign with a road trip to Kansas City in Week 16 and a matchup in Baltimore in Week 18. This is a pretty low total for today’s NFL standards, but the Steelers are 15-22-1 O/U in divisional matchups since 2015 (59 percent Unders).

Week 18
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+6, 49)
Holy shit, you read all the way to Week 18. Good stuff, thanks for sticking around. The NFL’s extra week will be packed with all shades of silliness on January 9, much like Week 17 used to be. You’ll have teams battling for playoff spots, teams resting their starters in prep for the postseason, and in the case of the Texans, you’ll have teams in full-on tank mode.

Houston has the shortest season win total of the 2021 NFL campaign, sitting at 4.5 wins, and lord knows what this roster will look at in the final week of the slate (Deshaun? No Deshaun?). Given those projections and the absolute buffoonery of this franchise, you can feel secure knowing the Texans will be tanking for the No. 1 pick – especially after going without a first-round selection the past two seasons. Tennessee, which will be in the playoff picture, is a steal at less than a TD right now.

Honorable mention

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+3, 45.5)
The last time these classic rivals clashed in Mile High, Kansas City was a touchdown road favorite. There are a couple of angles playing into this somewhat head-scratching spread: 1. The Chiefs are likely locked into a high playoff seed and resting bodies in Week 18. 2. Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback of the Broncos and has them vying for a postseason ticket of their own. 3. Deshaun Watson is the quarterback of the Broncos and has them vying for a postseason ticket of their own.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s Den: Trends for NFC trends…..

Arizona Cardinals:
— Last made playoffs in 2015
— 1-3-1 SU in last five season openers.
— Since 2015, they’re 9-18 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2018, they’re 10-6-2 ATS as road underdogs.

Atlanta Falcons:
— Last 3 years, they’re 18-30 SU
— Lost last 3 openers by 6-16-13 points.
— Since 2015, they’re 20-27 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2017, they’re 2-7 ATS as road favorites.

Carolina Panthers:
— They went 17-2 in 2015, lost Super Bowl, are 34-47 since then.
— Since 2012, they’re 7-16-1 ATS as road favorites, 34-16 as road dogs.
— Last two years, Carolina is 4-11-1 ATS at home.
— Last four years, over is 20-12 in Panther home games.

Chicago Bears:
— Bears haven’t won a playoff game (0-2) since 2010.
— Chicago lost six of last seven season openers.
— Last two years, they’re 4-10-1 ATS off a loss.
— Last four years, under is 21-11 in their home games.

Dallas Cowboys:
— Over last 20 years, Dallas is 4-7 in playoff games.
— Last three years, Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last three years, over is 16-8 in their home games.
— Last 3 years, they’re 2-8 ATS as favorite of 3 or fewer points.

Detroit Lions:
— Last three years, they’re 14-33-1 SU, minus-20 in turnovers.
— Which is why they have a new GM, coach, QB.
— Last three years, they’re 7-15-1 ATS at home.
— Last two years, Lions are 6-13-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2014, they’re 9-19-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points.

Green Bay Packers
— Last two years, they’re 26-6 SU, with +24 turnover ratio.
— Packers are 30-18-2 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.
— Since 2015, under is their home games.
— Last nine years, they’re 14-21-1 ATS on artificial turf.

Los Angeles Rams
— McVay is 43-21 SU in four years with the Rams.
— 10 years before that, Rams were 46-113 SU.
— Last two years, under is 13-3 in their home games.
— Rams won/covered last four season openers.
— McVay’s first 2 years, Rams were +19 in turnovers; last two years, minus-3.

Minnesota Vikings:
— Did not having fans matter? Over was 7-1 in their home games LY; from 2016-19, under was 20-10-2 in Viking home games.
— Zimmer is 26-16-1 ATS as home favorite, despite going 1-6 LY.
— Last three years, they’re 8-15-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2014, they’re 17-9 ATS as favorites of 3 or fewer points.

New Orleans Saints
— Last time Drew Brees wasn’t the Saints’ QB? 2005 (Aaron Brooks)
— Last 4 years, Saints were 49-15 SU (+39 in turnovers, 3-4 in playoffs)
— Since 2014, over is 36-20 in the Superdome.
— Since 2015, they’re 20-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.

New Jersey Giants
— Last four years, Giants are 18-46 SU.
— Giants won Super Bowl in 2011; since then, they’re 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last 3 years, they’re 4-14 ATS as home underdogs, 16-4 as road dogs.
— Since 2016, under is 24-16 in their home games.

Philadelphia Eagles:
— Eagles won eight of last ten season openers.
— Last three years, they’re 5-13 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2016, under is 28-12 in Philly home games.
— Last three years, they’re 8-16 ATS coming off a loss.

San Francisco 49ers
— 49ers made playoffs once in last seven years.
— Last three years, they’re 4-12-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Last two years, they’re 9-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four years, they’re 11-5 ATS vs AFC teams.

Seattle Seahawks
— Finished over .500 last nine years (9-7 in playoff games)
— Since 2012, underdogs are 17-6-3 ATS in their NFC West road games.
— Since 2011, they’re 31-16-4 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last 3 years, they’re 11-5-3 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
— Bucs were +8 in turnovers LY; previous two years, they were minus-31.
— Last four years, over is 23-9 in their road games.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 10-2-1 ATS as home dogs, 6-11-4 as road dogs.
— Bucs won Super Bowl in 2002 and last year; the 17 years in between, they were 0-2 in playoff games.

Washington
— Last 20 years, they’re 1-5 in playoffs; the win was in 2005.
— Last three years, they’re 12-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last three years, they’re 11-5 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2015, they’re 26-15-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s Den: Trends for NFC trends…..

Arizona Cardinals:
— Last made playoffs in 2015
— 1-3-1 SU in last five season openers.
— Since 2015, they’re 9-18 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2018, they’re 10-6-2 ATS as road underdogs.

Atlanta Falcons:
— Last 3 years, they’re 18-30 SU
— Lost last 3 openers by 6-16-13 points.
— Since 2015, they’re 20-27 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2017, they’re 2-7 ATS as road favorites.

Carolina Panthers:
— They went 17-2 in 2015, lost Super Bowl, are 34-47 since then.
— Since 2012, they’re 7-16-1 ATS as road favorites, 34-16 as road dogs.
— Last two years, Carolina is 4-11-1 ATS at home.
— Last four years, over is 20-12 in Panther home games.

Chicago Bears:
— Bears haven’t won a playoff game (0-2) since 2010.
— Chicago lost six of last seven season openers.
— Last two years, they’re 4-10-1 ATS off a loss.
— Last four years, under is 21-11 in their home games.

Dallas Cowboys:
— Over last 20 years, Dallas is 4-7 in playoff games.
— Last three years, Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last three years, over is 16-8 in their home games.
— Last 3 years, they’re 2-8 ATS as favorite of 3 or fewer points.

Detroit Lions:
— Last three years, they’re 14-33-1 SU, minus-20 in turnovers.
— Which is why they have a new GM, coach, QB.
— Last three years, they’re 7-15-1 ATS at home.
— Last two years, Lions are 6-13-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2014, they’re 9-19-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points.

Green Bay Packers
— Last two years, they’re 26-6 SU, with +24 turnover ratio.
— Packers are 30-18-2 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.
— Since 2015, under is their home games.
— Last nine years, they’re 14-21-1 ATS on artificial turf.

Los Angeles Rams
— McVay is 43-21 SU in four years with the Rams.
— 10 years before that, Rams were 46-113 SU.
— Last two years, under is 13-3 in their home games.
— Rams won/covered last four season openers.
— McVay’s first 2 years, Rams were +19 in turnovers; last two years, minus-3.

Minnesota Vikings:
— Did not having fans matter? Over was 7-1 in their home games LY; from 2016-19, under was 20-10-2 in Viking home games.
— Zimmer is 26-16-1 ATS as home favorite, despite going 1-6 LY.
— Last three years, they’re 8-15-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2014, they’re 17-9 ATS as favorites of 3 or fewer points.

New Orleans Saints
— Last time Drew Brees wasn’t the Saints’ QB? 2005 (Aaron Brooks)
— Last 4 years, Saints were 49-15 SU (+39 in turnovers, 3-4 in playoffs)
— Since 2014, over is 36-20 in the Superdome.
— Since 2015, they’re 20-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.

New Jersey Giants
— Last four years, Giants are 18-46 SU.
— Giants won Super Bowl in 2011; since then, they’re 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last 3 years, they’re 4-14 ATS as home underdogs, 16-4 as road dogs.
— Since 2016, under is 24-16 in their home games.

Philadelphia Eagles:
— Eagles won eight of last ten season openers.
— Last three years, they’re 5-13 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2016, under is 28-12 in Philly home games.
— Last three years, they’re 8-16 ATS coming off a loss.

San Francisco 49ers
— 49ers made playoffs once in last seven years.
— Last three years, they’re 4-12-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Last two years, they’re 9-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four years, they’re 11-5 ATS vs AFC teams.

Seattle Seahawks
— Finished over .500 last nine years (9-7 in playoff games)
— Since 2012, underdogs are 17-6-3 ATS in their NFC West road games.
— Since 2011, they’re 31-16-4 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last 3 years, they’re 11-5-3 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
— Bucs were +8 in turnovers LY; previous two years, they were minus-31.
— Last four years, over is 23-9 in their road games.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 10-2-1 ATS as home dogs, 6-11-4 as road dogs.
— Bucs won Super Bowl in 2002 and last year; the 17 years in between, they were 0-2 in playoff games.

Washington
— Last 20 years, they’re 1-5 in playoffs; the win was in 2005.
— Last three years, they’re 12-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last three years, they’re 11-5 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2015, they’re 26-15-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

[StarDust Bum]

Dallas Cowboys 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Back the Dak Attack

The Dallas Cowboys' roster has some unknowns and some more with something to prove in 2021, but backing their high-powered offense is a certainty. Our Cowboys betting preview tells you how to best bet the enigmatic America's Team.

When Dak Prescott went down in Week 5 last year, the Dallas Cowboys’ season left on that cart with him. Now Dak is back, and expectations are high for America’s Team.

There are a lot of guys in this organization with something to prove in 2021. Besides Prescott living up to that juicy contract, Ezekiel Elliott wants to return to the top of the rushing charts, Mike McCarthy needs to prove his worth as a head coach, and Dan Quinn is out to exorcise those demons borne in Atlanta.

Check out our 2021 Dallas Cowboys NFL betting preview.

Dallas Cowboys futures odds

Futures Bet Odds

Super Bowl +2,500
To Win Conference +1,200
To Win Division +140
Season Win Total O/U 9.5 (Over -115)
To Make Playoffs Yes -145 / No +125
Best futures bet: Win NFC East +140

Prescott is by far the best quarterback in the division and no other NFC East club comes close to this offense. Before Dak went down in 2020, the Cowboys attack was remarkable. How remarkable? Dallas averaged just below 33 points per game despite possessing the football for an average of only 26:25 per contest – putting up 1.24 points per minute on offense (Green Bay’s No. 1 offense posted 0.954 points per minute).

Year 2 under McCarthy comes with camp, practice, and proper preseason, which were not in place in the COVID-19 stricken 2020 campaign, and Quinn should bring some consistency to a defense that struggled in whatever the hell Mike Nolan was trying to do last year. Dallas is also handed the second softest schedule in the NFL (.452 opponent win percentage) with plenty of winnable road games, outside of trips to Tampa Bay and Kansas City.

Dallas Cowboys betting overview

What will win bets: Offense
With Dak on the attack, Elliott out for redemption behind a healthy offensive line, and the best receiving corps in the NFC lining up, Dallas is going to score a shit ton of points in 2021.

If you need evidence, glance over those lookahead lines and count how many totals are already topping 50 points or more (seven, there’s seven if you’re lazy). With a bevy of weapons and ways to beat you, the Cowboys are going to give opposing defenses the night sweats.

What will lose bets: Defense
More specifically the secondary, but if the front seven can’t get pressure on opposing passers, we’ll get a repeat of 2020 in which the Cowboys ranked 23rd in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and surrendered more than 29 average points against. Dallas couldn’t get its man in the draft, watching the top corners go before its selection at No. 10 (which it traded to Philly), and is really leaning on second-year CB Trevon Diggs to improve leaps and bounds in 2021.

It’s going to be painful to watch the Cowboys score 30-plus points per game but come up short against the spread each Sunday. Dallas fans will want to scream into their pillow after the defense gives up 500 yards passing to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terry McLaurin and the WFT in Week 14. Just a warning.

Dallas Cowboys game-by-game odds

The Cowboys are point spread faves in 10 of 17 games, which is pretty much right on their season win total Over/Under of 9.5 victories. Dallas is dishing out more than a field goal in seven of those contests and since Dak took over at QB in 2016, the team is 17-12-1 ATS when laying 3.5 points or more.

The back end of the schedule is road-heavy, with four of the final six games away from Jerry’s World, including three stops to play divisional rivals in outdoor venues in December/January (more on that below). The Cowboys are either short faves or short dogs in those NFC East matchups and are 0-4 ATS with spreads between -2.5 and +2.5 in divisional road games since 2016.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ Tampa Bay +6.5 52

2 @ L.A. Chargers +1.5 52

3 vs Philadelphia -6.5 49.5

4 vs Carolina -5.5 49.5

5 vs N.Y. Giants -5.5 48.5

6 @ New England +1.5 48

7 BYE

8 @ Minnesota +2 49.5

9 vs Denver -4.5 47

10 vs Atlanta -5.5 51.5

11 @ Kansas City +7.5 55

12 vs Las Vegas -5.5 53

13 @ New Orleans +3 50

14 @ Washington +1.5 47.5

15 @ N.Y. Giants -1 47

16 vs Washington -5 48

17 vs Arizona -2.5 52

18 @ Philadelphia -2.5 43.5

Early season forecast

With back-to-back road games against quality foes to start 2021, the sky could be falling in Big D by the Cowboys’ home opener in Week 3, especially working in a new defensive coordinator against the Bucs and Bolts.

The 2021 season opens on Thursday Night Football in Week 1, with Dallas visiting the defending Big Game winners in Tampa Bay as a 6.5-point underdog. The Cowboys are 5-3 ATS when catching 6.5 points or more since 2016 (when Prescott became starter) but defending Super Bowl champs are 14-6-1 ATS in Week 1 of the following season since 2000.

Week 2 sends America’s Team to La-La Land for a run in with the Chargers. Los Angeles is giving the Cowboys 1.5 points, with its coaching staff undergoing an overhaul this offseason. The total is pegged at 52 points and Dallas has lived up to those lofty numbers in recent years, going 9-6 Over/Under versus totals of 50 or more the past five seasons.

Monday Night Football is the stage for the Cowboys’ home opener, handing 6.5 points to the visiting Eagles – another team with a revamp on the sideline. Hefty chalk has been no problem for Prescott & Co. with Dallas boasting an 11-4-1 ATS mark when giving 6.5 points or more since 2016. A Cowboys-Over same-game parlay could have bite as well, with Dallas going Over in 10 of those 16 games when giving at least 6.5 points (4-1 ATS and 5-0 O/U in divisional games).

Spot bet

Week 12: vs Las Vegas (-5.5)

The biggest turkeys on Thanksgiving have been the poor souls betting on the Cowboys in their annual holiday home game (me among them). Dallas is a dismal 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Thanksgiving showcases and faces a potent Las Vegas offense on a short turnaround after visiting Kansas City in Week 11. I hope you like your schedule spots stuffed with letdown game. Gobble gobble!

Totals tip

The Cowboys finished 9-7 Over/Under in 2020 but had guys like Andy Dalton, Garrett Gilbert and Ben Dinucci taking snaps after Prescott went down in Week 5. Up to and including that game, Dallas had gone Over in four of its first five contests.

And it wasn’t just Dak’s injury that dampened the offense last year. The once-mighty offensive line was missing key cogs and Elliott was unable to gain traction, as defenses didn’t need to worry about the pass and stacked the box.

Quinn’s Cover-3 and hybrid fronts will take some time to set in, making the opening stretch of 2021 primetime for Over bettors – most notably the five home stands between Week 3 and Week 10 (bye in Week 7).

Home has always been where the heart is for those high-scoring results, with the Cowboys going 6-2 O/U inside AT&T Stadium last year and 25-17 O/U (59.5 percent Overs) at home since 2016.

Star power props: Dak Prescott, QB
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +1,500
Comeback Player of the Year +200
Passing leader +500
Passing yards total 4,825.5 (Over -112)
Passing TD total 32.5 (Under -125)
Best prop: MVP +1,500

Given Prescott is the runaway favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year and the second overall favorite to lead the league in passing, why waste our futures flyer on 5/1 or 2/1 returns when MVP can be had at 15/1? Let’s get greedy. If Dak accomplishes those two tasks (or comes close to the passing lead) and gets the Cowboys Over 9.5 wins, he’ll garner a lot of MVP buzz given the public appeal of America’s Team.

His ankle strength and mobility are questions heading into 2021, but he’s got Zack Martin, La'el Collins, and Tyron Smith back on the line and Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup to throw to. The dark shadow of contract talk is gone, and Prescott posted 1,856 yards and nine touchdowns in only five games in 2020, which would have had him on pace for a 6,000-plus yard season under the new 17-game format.

Trend to know
December football has dug into Dallas bettors’ Xmas funds for a while now, at least when the Cowboys hit the road. Since 2016, America’s Team is just 6-7 SU and 4-8-1 ATS as a visitor between Week 13 and Week 17. Going back to the turn of the century (2000 to 2020), this franchise is a Grinch-approved 19-34-2 ATS on the road in the final five weeks of the regular season – covering at just 36 percent long term.

Cowboys’ late-season road games

Week 13 @ New Orleans +3
Week 14 @ Washington +1.5
Week 15 @ N.Y. Giants -1
Week 18 @ Philadelphia -2.5

[StarDust Bum]

Washington Football Team 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Will Ryan Fitzpatrick Work His Magic in DC?

With strong coaching and a talented defense, we know the Washington Football Team will roll back their defensive performance from last season. Will Fitz Magic and the offense be able to hang? Our Washington Football Team betting preview breaks it down.

The Washington Football Team is the NFL’s equivalent to pineapple on pizza. Some love them. Some don’t. And, looking at the WFT’s futures and lookahead lines, it’s clear the oddsmakers hate pineapple on pizza.

The Football Team will remain among the defensive elite and should improve in Year 2 under Ron Rivera, building on last year’s postseason appearance. But the “NFC Least” will push back more in 2021 and veteran gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick is a rough duct tape job holding this offense together.

Take a big bite of pineapple with our 2021 Washington Football Team NFL betting preview.

Washington Football Team futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +50,000
To Win Conference +2,500
To Win Division +240
Season Win Total O/U 8 (Over -140)
To Make Playoffs Yes +155 / No -175
Best futures bet: Over 8 wins (-140)

If the point spreads have any say, this win total would be wayyyyyyy lower. But, let’s put some respect on the name of the Washington… wait, they still don’t have a name yet?! Holy hell. But I digress. This was a playoff team in 2020, in part due to a shutdown defense as well as a dog shit year for the NFC East.

This stop unit will once again put the D in D.C. but barring another wave of catastrophic injuries, the division will be better. Fitzpatrick is the best QB option this team has had since Kirk Cousins grabbed the bag in Minnesota, which isn’t saying much, but it’s enough to collect eight wins or at least push with this total.

Washington Football Team betting overview

What will win bets: Defense
The Football Team was No. 3 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders in 2020 and remains pretty much intact for this coming season. Washington has a disruptive defensive line that helped collect 47 sacks and the passing defense allowed less than 192 yards per game, including just 36 passing plays of 20-plus yards against (tied for fewest in the NFL).

Washington gave up just over 21 points per game on the year – only 4.4 points per fourth quarter - and checked each of its final seven foes of the regular season to 20 points or less. The offense won’t need to do much to keep the WFT within the oddsmakers’ expectations.

What will lose bets: Running game
The Football Team doesn’t present much punch on the ground with the likes of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic leading a rushing attack that finished 28th in yards per carry (4.0) and averaged just over 100 yards per contest in 2020. The weakness of the running game compounds the shakeup on the offensive line.

If opponents need not fear the ground game, they can let it rip with blitzes and attack an O-line that allowed 50 sacks last season (tied for second-most). If the protection can’t give Fitzpatrick time to find deep threats Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, then this offense is sunk.

Washington Football Team game-by-game odds

Washington is a point spread favorite in a mere three games this season but also has nine spreads as an underdog of a field goal or fewer. Unlike divisional foes Philadelphia and Dallas, who have the two weakest 2021 schedules, the WFT ranks T-15 in SOS.

The Football Team got the points in 14 of its 17 2020 contests (including playoffs) and came away with a 9-5 ATS mark in those games, including a 4-2 ATS count when pegged as a pup of three points or less.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 vs L.A. Chargers +1.5 44.5

2 vs N.Y. Giants -3 43

3 @ Buffalo +7.5 48

4 @ Atlanta +2.5 48

5 vs New Orleans +1 46.5

6 vs Kansas City +6.5 50.5

7 @ Green Bay +7 47.5

8 @ Denver +3 43

9 BYE

10 vs Tampa Bay +6.5 50.5

11 @ Carolina +1 46.5

12 vs Seattle +2.5 46.5

13 @ Las Vegas +2.5 47.5

14 vs Dallas -1.5 47.5

15 @ Philadelphia +1.5 46

16 @ Dallas +5 48

17 vs Philadelphia -3.5 44.5

18 @ N.Y. Giants +1.5 42.5

Early season forecast

A home-friendly start to 2021 has WFT bettors in a good mood, as the 2020 team posted a 6-3 ATS mark inside FedEx Field.

The Chargers set their alarm clocks for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) in the nation’s capital in Week 1, giving 1.5 points to the host side. Washington’s defense is the first true test for a retooled L.A. offense, but early action slipped this spread from pick’em to as far as WFT +1.5. Short home underdogs between PK and +1.5 are 13-7 SU and ATS in Week 1 since 2000.

The Football Team welcomes the rival Giants for Thursday Night Football in Week 2, laying a field goal – just one of three games in which Washington is giving points this season. The G-Men have long had the number of their divisional foe, especially in D.C. where Washington is just 7-14 SU and 8-13 ATS hosting New York the past 21 seasons. The Football Team lost both matchups with the Giants in 2020.

The first road trip of the schedule is a doozy, as the Bills break out the tables and a 7.5-point spread at Orchard Park in Week 3. As solid as the WFT was as a pup in Year 1 under Rivera, it wasn’t as strong when catching six or more points from the bookies (0-6 SU and 3-3 ATS). Non-conference road games have plagued Washington for a few seasons, going 4-7 SU and ATS since 2015.

Spot bet

Week 8: @ Denver (+3)

The Football Team plays its second straight road game in the high altitude of Denver on Halloween - a week removed from visiting Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers in Week 7. This energy-sapping contest could also play the role of lookahead spot, with a valuable bye week dangling like a carrot in Week 9. The total for this one is set at 43 points. Washington went 1-4 Over/Under in games with sub-44 numbers in 2020.

Totals tip

Washington finished the regular season with a 5-11 Over/Under count, staying below the number in 10 of its final dozen games of 2020.

That’s to be expected when you have a defense this stingy and a QB roll call that reads Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and Taylor Heinicke. Can Fitz Magic turn those total results on their ear? Probably not. The Dolphins went 3-6 O/U with Fitzpatrick slinging it last year.

One thing to look out for when betting the WFT totals – and it’s a rare spot – is going Under when D.C. is giving the points. Since 2017, Washington is 4-10 O/U (71 percent Under) as a favorite, including 0-3 O/U last year.

Star power props: Chase Young DE
Player prop Odds to win
Defensive Player of the Year +1,600
Sacks Leader +1,200
Sacks Total 8.5 (Under -130)
Best prop: Over 8.5 sacks (-110)

This prop is asking for a 1.5-sack improvement from Young, if one should side with the Over 8.5. The Ohio State product did a solid job getting to the quarterback in his rookie season (7.5 sacks) despite drawing double teams most weeks (which allowed Montez Sweat to go HAM with a team-high nine sacks).

Young finished 2020 with six QB knockdowns and 24 pressures, as well as a number of near sacks, and as foes have to pick their poison against this talented WFT defensive line, those close calls will manifest themselves in QB kills as this remarkable talent grows as a pro.

Trend to know

In their first year under Ron Rivera, the Football Team went 2-1 ATS versus the NFC East at home – a situation that has plagued this franchise for the past few years. Going back to 2016, Washington is just 5-10 SU and ATS at home in divisional games – covering only 33 percent of the time.

WFT home divisional games

Week 2: vs N.Y. Giants -3
Week 14: vs Dallas -1.5
Week 17: vs Philadelphia -3.5

[StarDust Bum]

Washington Football Team 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Will Ryan Fitzpatrick Work His Magic in DC?

With strong coaching and a talented defense, we know the Washington Football Team will roll back their defensive performance from last season. Will Fitz Magic and the offense be able to hang? Our Washington Football Team betting preview breaks it down.

The Washington Football Team is the NFL’s equivalent to pineapple on pizza. Some love them. Some don’t. And, looking at the WFT’s futures and lookahead lines, it’s clear the oddsmakers hate pineapple on pizza.

The Football Team will remain among the defensive elite and should improve in Year 2 under Ron Rivera, building on last year’s postseason appearance. But the “NFC Least” will push back more in 2021 and veteran gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick is a rough duct tape job holding this offense together.

Take a big bite of pineapple with our 2021 Washington Football Team NFL betting preview.

Washington Football Team futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +50,000
To Win Conference +2,500
To Win Division +240
Season Win Total O/U 8 (Over -140)
To Make Playoffs Yes +155 / No -175
Best futures bet: Over 8 wins (-140)

If the point spreads have any say, this win total would be wayyyyyyy lower. But, let’s put some respect on the name of the Washington… wait, they still don’t have a name yet?! Holy hell. But I digress. This was a playoff team in 2020, in part due to a shutdown defense as well as a dog shit year for the NFC East.

This stop unit will once again put the D in D.C. but barring another wave of catastrophic injuries, the division will be better. Fitzpatrick is the best QB option this team has had since Kirk Cousins grabbed the bag in Minnesota, which isn’t saying much, but it’s enough to collect eight wins or at least push with this total.

Washington Football Team betting overview

What will win bets: Defense
The Football Team was No. 3 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders in 2020 and remains pretty much intact for this coming season. Washington has a disruptive defensive line that helped collect 47 sacks and the passing defense allowed less than 192 yards per game, including just 36 passing plays of 20-plus yards against (tied for fewest in the NFL).

Washington gave up just over 21 points per game on the year – only 4.4 points per fourth quarter - and checked each of its final seven foes of the regular season to 20 points or less. The offense won’t need to do much to keep the WFT within the oddsmakers’ expectations.

What will lose bets: Running game
The Football Team doesn’t present much punch on the ground with the likes of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic leading a rushing attack that finished 28th in yards per carry (4.0) and averaged just over 100 yards per contest in 2020. The weakness of the running game compounds the shakeup on the offensive line.

If opponents need not fear the ground game, they can let it rip with blitzes and attack an O-line that allowed 50 sacks last season (tied for second-most). If the protection can’t give Fitzpatrick time to find deep threats Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, then this offense is sunk.

Washington Football Team game-by-game odds

Washington is a point spread favorite in a mere three games this season but also has nine spreads as an underdog of a field goal or fewer. Unlike divisional foes Philadelphia and Dallas, who have the two weakest 2021 schedules, the WFT ranks T-15 in SOS.

The Football Team got the points in 14 of its 17 2020 contests (including playoffs) and came away with a 9-5 ATS mark in those games, including a 4-2 ATS count when pegged as a pup of three points or less.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 vs L.A. Chargers +1.5 44.5

2 vs N.Y. Giants -3 43

3 @ Buffalo +7.5 48

4 @ Atlanta +2.5 48

5 vs New Orleans +1 46.5

6 vs Kansas City +6.5 50.5

7 @ Green Bay +7 47.5

8 @ Denver +3 43

9 BYE

10 vs Tampa Bay +6.5 50.5

11 @ Carolina +1 46.5

12 vs Seattle +2.5 46.5

13 @ Las Vegas +2.5 47.5

14 vs Dallas -1.5 47.5

15 @ Philadelphia +1.5 46

16 @ Dallas +5 48

17 vs Philadelphia -3.5 44.5

18 @ N.Y. Giants +1.5 42.5

Early season forecast

A home-friendly start to 2021 has WFT bettors in a good mood, as the 2020 team posted a 6-3 ATS mark inside FedEx Field.

The Chargers set their alarm clocks for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) in the nation’s capital in Week 1, giving 1.5 points to the host side. Washington’s defense is the first true test for a retooled L.A. offense, but early action slipped this spread from pick’em to as far as WFT +1.5. Short home underdogs between PK and +1.5 are 13-7 SU and ATS in Week 1 since 2000.

The Football Team welcomes the rival Giants for Thursday Night Football in Week 2, laying a field goal – just one of three games in which Washington is giving points this season. The G-Men have long had the number of their divisional foe, especially in D.C. where Washington is just 7-14 SU and 8-13 ATS hosting New York the past 21 seasons. The Football Team lost both matchups with the Giants in 2020.

The first road trip of the schedule is a doozy, as the Bills break out the tables and a 7.5-point spread at Orchard Park in Week 3. As solid as the WFT was as a pup in Year 1 under Rivera, it wasn’t as strong when catching six or more points from the bookies (0-6 SU and 3-3 ATS). Non-conference road games have plagued Washington for a few seasons, going 4-7 SU and ATS since 2015.

Spot bet

Week 8: @ Denver (+3)

The Football Team plays its second straight road game in the high altitude of Denver on Halloween - a week removed from visiting Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers in Week 7. This energy-sapping contest could also play the role of lookahead spot, with a valuable bye week dangling like a carrot in Week 9. The total for this one is set at 43 points. Washington went 1-4 Over/Under in games with sub-44 numbers in 2020.

Totals tip

Washington finished the regular season with a 5-11 Over/Under count, staying below the number in 10 of its final dozen games of 2020.

That’s to be expected when you have a defense this stingy and a QB roll call that reads Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and Taylor Heinicke. Can Fitz Magic turn those total results on their ear? Probably not. The Dolphins went 3-6 O/U with Fitzpatrick slinging it last year.

One thing to look out for when betting the WFT totals – and it’s a rare spot – is going Under when D.C. is giving the points. Since 2017, Washington is 4-10 O/U (71 percent Under) as a favorite, including 0-3 O/U last year.

Star power props: Chase Young DE
Player prop Odds to win
Defensive Player of the Year +1,600
Sacks Leader +1,200
Sacks Total 8.5 (Under -130)
Best prop: Over 8.5 sacks (-110)

This prop is asking for a 1.5-sack improvement from Young, if one should side with the Over 8.5. The Ohio State product did a solid job getting to the quarterback in his rookie season (7.5 sacks) despite drawing double teams most weeks (which allowed Montez Sweat to go HAM with a team-high nine sacks).

Young finished 2020 with six QB knockdowns and 24 pressures, as well as a number of near sacks, and as foes have to pick their poison against this talented WFT defensive line, those close calls will manifest themselves in QB kills as this remarkable talent grows as a pro.

Trend to know

In their first year under Ron Rivera, the Football Team went 2-1 ATS versus the NFC East at home – a situation that has plagued this franchise for the past few years. Going back to 2016, Washington is just 5-10 SU and ATS at home in divisional games – covering only 33 percent of the time.

WFT home divisional games

Week 2: vs N.Y. Giants -3
Week 14: vs Dallas -1.5
Week 17: vs Philadelphia -3.5

[StarDust Bum]

Philadelphia Eagles 2021 NFL Betting Preview: New Regime, Rough Early Schedule Not Great For Philly

There's a whole new regime in Philly, with Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz gone, which means it's likely to be a long season in the City of Brotherly Love. Our Eagles betting preview expects lots of growing pains — but betting value later in the season.

The rebuild in the City of Brotherly Love has begun with the Philadelphia Eagles cleaning house this offseason and bringing in shiny new sideline pieces for the 2021 NFL campaign.

Rookie head coach Nick Sirianni inherits a roster that suffered the second most non-COVID missed games last year (126.1) and has to figure out fast whether Jalen Hurts is the face of the franchise or a placeholder QB.

Mix in that uncertainty with an always-volatile NFC East, and who knows how things will shake down in Philly. But we’ll do our best…

Here’s the 2021 Philadelphia Eagles NFL betting preview.

Philadelphia Eagles futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +10,000
To Win Conference +5,000
To Win Division +450
To Make Playoffs Yes +250/No -300
Season Win Total O/U 6.5 (Over -140)
Best futures bet: Under 6.5 wins (+120)

It’s tough to tell what the topsy-turvy NFC East will give in terms of wins but just sizing up the Eagles’ opening two months, there’s a case for this squad going winless before heading to Detroit as 1-point chalk in Week 8.

The saving grace for Over backers could be three of the final four games coming at home versus divisional foes in December/January. But I’d rather bet against a second-year QB (who isn’t elite) and a revamped staff at plus money than lay the lumber on the Over.

Philadelphia Eagles betting overview
What will win bets: Sizeable spreads

By the time winter rolls around, the Eagles’ point spreads will be swollen like bellies after 2-for-1 cheesesteak night at Pat’s. Philly is already catching plenty of points in 2021, with eight spreads of +3.5 or higher and three at +6.5 or more. Under Pederson, the Eagles were 8-5 ATS when catching +6.5 or higher from the bookies.

Come late-November and December, this team will improve. The Eagles will be up to speed on their new systems and facing a softer slate of familiar NFC East opponents. Those short spreads on the lookahead lines will jump the fence to plus-points or tick above the key number of a field goal — and barring a rash of injuries like 2020, value will bubble up.

What will lose bets: Defensive growing pains

This new coaching staff gets a baptism by fire in the early workings of the season... especially this defense. New coordinator Jonathan Gannon faces serious firepower in the form of San Francisco, Dallas, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas — all before Halloween. Scary shit.

The talk out of training camp is that Philadelphia — which ranked 24th in passing defense DVOA at Football Outsiders last season — is leaning on a chaotic and disruptive philosophy, trying to force turnovers. The big issue is that those types of defenses, that like to roll the dice, tend to give up big plays.

Philadelphia Eagles game-by-game odds

The Eagles are underdogs in 14 of their 17 games in 2021 and the three spreads for which Philly is the favorite are pegged at -1.5 or lower. In the final two years under former head coach Doug Pederson (2019 and 2020), Philadelphia finished just 5-12 ATS when laying the points (8-8-1 SU).

The Eagles have the weakest slate in the league (.430 opponent win percentage) but it’s heavily frontloaded. The first half of the schedule is a tough road for this new coaching staff, with five of those eight contests coming away from home. The three home games come against the last three teams to play in the Super Bowl: 49ers, Chiefs and Buccaneers. Ouch.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ Atlanta +3.5 48

2 vs San Francisco +4 46

3 @ Dallas +6.5 49.5

4 vs Kansas City +8 50.5

5 @ Carolina +3 47.5

6 vs Tampa Bay +7.5 50.5

7 @ Las Vegas +3.5 48.5

8 @ Detroit -1 48.5

9 vs L.A. Chargers +2 48

10 @ Denver +5.5 45.5

11 vs New Orleans +3 48

12 @ N.Y. Giants +3 46.5

13 @ N.Y. Jets +1.5 45

14 BYE

15 vs Washington -1.5 46

16 vs N.Y. Giants -1.5 46

17 @ Washington +3.5 44.5

18 vs Dallas +2.5 43.5

Early season forecast

Philadelphia is getting more than a field goal in each of its first three games of 2021 for good reason. You have a rookie head coach and a talent-deprived roster for a franchise on the rebuild just a few years removed from a Super Bowl title.

The schedule kicks off in Atlanta, where Philly is getting +3.5 against the Falcons. This spread is trending toward Eagles +4 at some books, with early play on the home side. For what it’s worth, Atlanta is incredible in home openers, going 11-2 SU and ATS in the first homestand of the season since 2008 (but just 3-2 SU and ATS last five seasons). Given there are only three preseason games, Philadelphia will still be working out the kinks on both sides of the ball come September 12.

The San Francisco 49ers cross the country for an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) inside Lincoln Financial Field in Week 2, bringing four points with them for the host Eagles. Under Pederson, Philadelphia was a solid bet as a home underdog, going 9-4 ATS in the regular season and playoffs, including a 4-0 ATS mark as home pups in 2020.

Divisional competition opens in Dallas for a Monday Night Football fight in Week 3, where bookies are giving the Eagles almost a touchdown versus the Cowboys. Since 2016, Philadelphia is just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as an underdog in divisional play, including a 0-4 SU/ATS mark as road dogs versus an NFC East rival.

Spot bet

Week 6 vs Tampa Bay (+7.5)

Taking on the defending Super Bowl champs is never an easy task, but it’s made harder thanks to a short turnaround on Thursday Night Football in Week 6.

What’s more, this lofty test sees the Eagles playing their fourth game in just 18 days, thanks to the Monday nighter in Week 3. For a team that was plagued by injuries in 2020, this stretch will be a true test of durability and depth.

If you’re banking on the Bucs, you may want to do it now before this spread grows bigger.

Totals tip

The Eagles finished 7-9 Over/Under in 2020, with a 3-5 O/U count in home games. Philadelphia’s offensive woes (28th Offensive DVOA) were rooted in injuries across the offensive line, which rolled out 14 different combinations last year. That manifested itself into 65 sacks allowed — by far the most in the NFL.

Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen have some raw talent to work with. Hurts can make plays with his legs when things break down and rookie WR Devonta Smith is an instant No. 1 target. The running game has good but not great options in Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kerryon Johnson. As long as the O-line stays healthy, there should be an uptick in production.

As mentioned, it looks like Gannon’s defense is going for broke in an attempt to win the turnover battle. Philadelphia runs into some very savvy offensive attacks early on, so this could backfire big time. The window for Overs is open, especially in the first nine weeks of action.

Star power props: Devonta Smith, WR
Player prop Odds to win
Offensive Rookie of the Year +1,700
Receiving Yards Leader +10,000
Receiving TD Leader +10,000
Receiving Yards Total 750.5 (Over -135)
Best prop: Under 750.5 receiving yards (+105)

There’s no denying the skillset Smith brings to the Eagles, but his wiry frame and durability are the major bugaboos among skeptics. And so far this summer, those doubts have merit with the Heisman winner missing camp time due to a knee sprain.

Smith and Hurts may have been teammates briefly at Alabama but there’s a lot of work to be done in this brand-new offense. Chemistry is already limited due to the shortened exhibition schedule and any reps Smith misses puts his progress behind.

He’ll draw the ire of opposing secondaries without any other threats commanding attention in the Philly passing game (second-year WR Jalen Reagor is the No. 2), lining up what could be a frustrating season for the No. 10 pick in the draft.

For comparison’s sake, Julio Jones — another slender all-world Alabama WR — had 959 yards receiving in 13 games during his rookie campaign. But he had Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez softening his coverage and Matt Ryan tossing him the ball... and Hurts is no Matt Ryan.

Trend to know

It’s tough taking any betting trends to heart when you have such a turnover in coaching and schemes. However, home field is an advantage for Philadelphia when the cold Pennsylvania winter sets in. Under Pederson (2016 to 2020), Philadelphia was 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS at home between Week 13 and Week 17.

Eagles’ late-season home games

Week 15: -1.5 vs Washington
Week 16: -1.5 vs Giants
Week 18: +2.5 vs Cowboys

[StarDust Bum]

Philadelphia Eagles 2021 NFL Betting Preview: New Regime, Rough Early Schedule Not Great For Philly

There's a whole new regime in Philly, with Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz gone, which means it's likely to be a long season in the City of Brotherly Love. Our Eagles betting preview expects lots of growing pains — but betting value later in the season.

The rebuild in the City of Brotherly Love has begun with the Philadelphia Eagles cleaning house this offseason and bringing in shiny new sideline pieces for the 2021 NFL campaign.

Rookie head coach Nick Sirianni inherits a roster that suffered the second most non-COVID missed games last year (126.1) and has to figure out fast whether Jalen Hurts is the face of the franchise or a placeholder QB.

Mix in that uncertainty with an always-volatile NFC East, and who knows how things will shake down in Philly. But we’ll do our best…

Here’s the 2021 Philadelphia Eagles NFL betting preview.

Philadelphia Eagles futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +10,000
To Win Conference +5,000
To Win Division +450
To Make Playoffs Yes +250/No -300
Season Win Total O/U 6.5 (Over -140)
Best futures bet: Under 6.5 wins (+120)

It’s tough to tell what the topsy-turvy NFC East will give in terms of wins but just sizing up the Eagles’ opening two months, there’s a case for this squad going winless before heading to Detroit as 1-point chalk in Week 8.

The saving grace for Over backers could be three of the final four games coming at home versus divisional foes in December/January. But I’d rather bet against a second-year QB (who isn’t elite) and a revamped staff at plus money than lay the lumber on the Over.

Philadelphia Eagles betting overview
What will win bets: Sizeable spreads

By the time winter rolls around, the Eagles’ point spreads will be swollen like bellies after 2-for-1 cheesesteak night at Pat’s. Philly is already catching plenty of points in 2021, with eight spreads of +3.5 or higher and three at +6.5 or more. Under Pederson, the Eagles were 8-5 ATS when catching +6.5 or higher from the bookies.

Come late-November and December, this team will improve. The Eagles will be up to speed on their new systems and facing a softer slate of familiar NFC East opponents. Those short spreads on the lookahead lines will jump the fence to plus-points or tick above the key number of a field goal — and barring a rash of injuries like 2020, value will bubble up.

What will lose bets: Defensive growing pains

This new coaching staff gets a baptism by fire in the early workings of the season... especially this defense. New coordinator Jonathan Gannon faces serious firepower in the form of San Francisco, Dallas, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas — all before Halloween. Scary shit.

The talk out of training camp is that Philadelphia — which ranked 24th in passing defense DVOA at Football Outsiders last season — is leaning on a chaotic and disruptive philosophy, trying to force turnovers. The big issue is that those types of defenses, that like to roll the dice, tend to give up big plays.

Philadelphia Eagles game-by-game odds

The Eagles are underdogs in 14 of their 17 games in 2021 and the three spreads for which Philly is the favorite are pegged at -1.5 or lower. In the final two years under former head coach Doug Pederson (2019 and 2020), Philadelphia finished just 5-12 ATS when laying the points (8-8-1 SU).

The Eagles have the weakest slate in the league (.430 opponent win percentage) but it’s heavily frontloaded. The first half of the schedule is a tough road for this new coaching staff, with five of those eight contests coming away from home. The three home games come against the last three teams to play in the Super Bowl: 49ers, Chiefs and Buccaneers. Ouch.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ Atlanta +3.5 48

2 vs San Francisco +4 46

3 @ Dallas +6.5 49.5

4 vs Kansas City +8 50.5

5 @ Carolina +3 47.5

6 vs Tampa Bay +7.5 50.5

7 @ Las Vegas +3.5 48.5

8 @ Detroit -1 48.5

9 vs L.A. Chargers +2 48

10 @ Denver +5.5 45.5

11 vs New Orleans +3 48

12 @ N.Y. Giants +3 46.5

13 @ N.Y. Jets +1.5 45

14 BYE

15 vs Washington -1.5 46

16 vs N.Y. Giants -1.5 46

17 @ Washington +3.5 44.5

18 vs Dallas +2.5 43.5

Early season forecast

Philadelphia is getting more than a field goal in each of its first three games of 2021 for good reason. You have a rookie head coach and a talent-deprived roster for a franchise on the rebuild just a few years removed from a Super Bowl title.

The schedule kicks off in Atlanta, where Philly is getting +3.5 against the Falcons. This spread is trending toward Eagles +4 at some books, with early play on the home side. For what it’s worth, Atlanta is incredible in home openers, going 11-2 SU and ATS in the first homestand of the season since 2008 (but just 3-2 SU and ATS last five seasons). Given there are only three preseason games, Philadelphia will still be working out the kinks on both sides of the ball come September 12.

The San Francisco 49ers cross the country for an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) inside Lincoln Financial Field in Week 2, bringing four points with them for the host Eagles. Under Pederson, Philadelphia was a solid bet as a home underdog, going 9-4 ATS in the regular season and playoffs, including a 4-0 ATS mark as home pups in 2020.

Divisional competition opens in Dallas for a Monday Night Football fight in Week 3, where bookies are giving the Eagles almost a touchdown versus the Cowboys. Since 2016, Philadelphia is just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as an underdog in divisional play, including a 0-4 SU/ATS mark as road dogs versus an NFC East rival.

Spot bet

Week 6 vs Tampa Bay (+7.5)

Taking on the defending Super Bowl champs is never an easy task, but it’s made harder thanks to a short turnaround on Thursday Night Football in Week 6.

What’s more, this lofty test sees the Eagles playing their fourth game in just 18 days, thanks to the Monday nighter in Week 3. For a team that was plagued by injuries in 2020, this stretch will be a true test of durability and depth.

If you’re banking on the Bucs, you may want to do it now before this spread grows bigger.

Totals tip

The Eagles finished 7-9 Over/Under in 2020, with a 3-5 O/U count in home games. Philadelphia’s offensive woes (28th Offensive DVOA) were rooted in injuries across the offensive line, which rolled out 14 different combinations last year. That manifested itself into 65 sacks allowed — by far the most in the NFL.

Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen have some raw talent to work with. Hurts can make plays with his legs when things break down and rookie WR Devonta Smith is an instant No. 1 target. The running game has good but not great options in Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kerryon Johnson. As long as the O-line stays healthy, there should be an uptick in production.

As mentioned, it looks like Gannon’s defense is going for broke in an attempt to win the turnover battle. Philadelphia runs into some very savvy offensive attacks early on, so this could backfire big time. The window for Overs is open, especially in the first nine weeks of action.

Star power props: Devonta Smith, WR
Player prop Odds to win
Offensive Rookie of the Year +1,700
Receiving Yards Leader +10,000
Receiving TD Leader +10,000
Receiving Yards Total 750.5 (Over -135)
Best prop: Under 750.5 receiving yards (+105)

There’s no denying the skillset Smith brings to the Eagles, but his wiry frame and durability are the major bugaboos among skeptics. And so far this summer, those doubts have merit with the Heisman winner missing camp time due to a knee sprain.

Smith and Hurts may have been teammates briefly at Alabama but there’s a lot of work to be done in this brand-new offense. Chemistry is already limited due to the shortened exhibition schedule and any reps Smith misses puts his progress behind.

He’ll draw the ire of opposing secondaries without any other threats commanding attention in the Philly passing game (second-year WR Jalen Reagor is the No. 2), lining up what could be a frustrating season for the No. 10 pick in the draft.

For comparison’s sake, Julio Jones — another slender all-world Alabama WR — had 959 yards receiving in 13 games during his rookie campaign. But he had Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez softening his coverage and Matt Ryan tossing him the ball... and Hurts is no Matt Ryan.

Trend to know

It’s tough taking any betting trends to heart when you have such a turnover in coaching and schemes. However, home field is an advantage for Philadelphia when the cold Pennsylvania winter sets in. Under Pederson (2016 to 2020), Philadelphia was 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS at home between Week 13 and Week 17.

Eagles’ late-season home games

Week 15: -1.5 vs Washington
Week 16: -1.5 vs Giants
Week 18: +2.5 vs Cowboys