It's not as if Kansas is having a bad year (they are 17-6) but the team's 6-14 ATS mark proves it hasn't been one of its best seasons, either! Up front Wayne Simien (16.6/9.7) is SUPER and is joined by freshman Padgett and senior Graves. Two very good guards are back from last year in Langford and Miles plus they are joined on the perimeter by an outstanding freshman, JR Giddens. It may not be enough though vs the DEPTH of Texas. Mouton (13.3) and Tucker (11.3) are the only Longhorns in double-digits but NINE other players score between 3.8 and 9.7 ppg (none averaging less than 13 min/game) for what might be Rick Barnes' best team (not bad since they made the Final Four last year!). Kansas has been an underdog just once this year (+ 4.5 vs Okla St) and they got KILLED at Stillwater, 80-60. The Longhorns are 13-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by better than 20 ppg! Lay the ponts with Texas.
Joe Gavazzi San Diego State
First meeting between these two was an Aztec loss, 82-92. Expect the payback to work tonight on a court where SD State stands 6-3 ATS as HF. The Rams have been abyssmal on the Mountain West trail, losing every conference road game by 8 or more points. Expect the blowout tonight from the avenging Aztec.
Alex Smart Villanova
The Villanova Wildcats come into this game playing some of their best basketball on the road this season especially when it concerns their betting backers bankrolls as their ATS record now stands at an impressive 10-2 (83%). Syracuse on the other hand have been burning Benjamins at a steady pace this season as the odds makers continually lure punters in with over inflated lines on Syracuse games. The Orangemen are in the red this season and when playing as a host are 3-9 ATS losing their dime betting backers almost 7 Gs in the process. I am expecting a fairly close game in this one today based on a statistical over view of the data alone ,as the numbers just don not lie . Villanova have shot FGs at a 47% clip this season and from the trey are a nifty 37% over their L5 overall-that includes a 75.9% conversion rate from the charity stripe in the visitors role. While Syracuse on the other hand is also shooting FGs at around 47 % but it is their shooting from beyond the arc that is a major concern as they continue throwing bricks on a consistent basis and converting at a lowly 31.8% clip at home ?add to that a nasty 61.9% conversion rate from the Free throw line and you have the ingredients for what I suspect will be a further erosion of their betting supporters bankroll status. Note. The Wildcats have won the last two meetings SU & ATS.
Marc Lawrence Denver Nuggets
Nuggets travel to Memphis off a 16-point loss with 18-point loss revenge knowing they?ve defeated the Grizzlies in 12 of the last 16 games in this series. Take the points in this payback deluxe.
LT Profits Memphis/Denver UNDER
Yes, these two young athletic teams are vastly improved this season, but this lofty total looks like a severe over-adjustment to us. For starters, the Nuggets average about 7 fewer points on the road (93.6) than they do at home (100.2). In fact, the UNDER is 17-10, 63.0% in all Denver road games this season with an average combined total score in those games of 191.5 points, about 5 points lower than this posted total. The Nuggets have gone UNDER in 8 of their last 10 road contests, topping the 100-point mark in just 2 of those games. This string includes an 88-point effort here in Memphis back on January 25. Similarly, the UNDER is 15-13 in all Memphis home games this year with an even lower average combined total score of 189.7 points, about 7 points less than this total. The Grizzlies have gone UNDER in 9 of their last 11 home games. Finally, in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these clubs since 2001, exactly ONE of those games had a final point total greater than 197 points! The last time these teams got together, they combined to score just 169 points a couple of weeks ago in an 86-83 Nuggets victory at Denver.
I'M NOT SAYING THAT I'M NOT PLAYING PPP'S PLAYS ALL I'M SAYING IS THAT I'M CUTTING BACK THE AMOUNT I'M PLAYING UNTIL HE WARMS UP A BIT OR COMES WITH A BIGGER PLAY. HIS 3% PLAYS ARE SMALL PLAYS I THINK HE DOES THIS WHEN HE FEELS THE NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS--REMEMBER NO ONE AND I MEAN NO ONE WINS ALL THE TIME!!!!! JUST BE CAREFUL
WITH THAT SAID HE'LL MOST PROBABLY SWEEP THE BOARD TONITE
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