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Betting Recap - Week 15
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Jets +17 (ML +1000) at Rams, 23-20
Cowboys +4 (ML +170) vs. 49ers, 41-33
Chargers +3.5 (ML +155) at Raiders, 30-27 (OT)
Bears +3 (ML +130) at Vikings, 33-27
The largest favorites to cover
Ravens (-12.5) vs. Jaguars, 40-14
Titans (-8.5) vs. Lions, 45-26
Bills (-6) at Broncos, 48-19
Cardinals (-6) vs. Eagles, 33-26
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
If you were holding an 'under' ticket (49) in the Jacksonville Jaguars-Baltimore Ravens game, it was a gut-wrenching day from the jump.
The Ravens fired out to a 9-0 lead, much to the delight of side bettors laying the 13.5. Baltimore stepped on the gas even further, posting a 17-0 deficit in the second quarter to take a 26-0 lead into halftime. Under bettors were feeling very good about the Jaguars, as they were cooperating. Surely the scoring would drop off for the Ravens as they called off the dogs, right?
Well, kinda.
The Ravens did their part, managing just 14 points in the final 30 minutes. The Jaguars had just seven points until very late in the game. Baltimore lead 40-7 late into the fourth quarter, and past the two-minute warning. Under bettors were feeling very good...until 1:44 to go in the game, when the Jaguars had a QB Gardner Minshew to WR Chris Conley touchdown to make it 40-14. That's a tough way to lose your 'under' bet.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
Going back to Thursday's game between the Los Angeles Chargers-Las Vegas Raiders, again, if you were an 'under' (52.5) bettors...ouch.
The first half started slow enough, as the Bolts posted a 7-3 lead after 15 minutes, and the 'under' (52.5) bettors were feeling good, as they were well on pace. The Chargers ended up taking a 17-10 lead into the break, and the 'over' was then trending. Under bettors were feeling slightly better, in a weird way, as QB David Carr (groin) ended up leaving the game for good in the first half. While nobody ever likes to see someone injured, it's usually good to see a backup coming in if you're an 'under' bettor.
However, backup QB Marcus Mariota led the comeback, erasing a 24-17 lead with a 2-yard diving run for the pylon with 6:16 to go in regulation. It was the only score in the final 17:08 of regulation. That meant overtime, and that's never a good thing for under bettors, either.
However, the Raiders chewed up a ton of clock before settling for a 23-yard field goal for PK Daniel Carlson with just 3:18 left in the extra session. If you were holding an under ticket you were still in good shape as long as the Vegas defense stepped up.
They didn't.
QB Justin Herbert stretched for the goal line and fumbled, with FB Gabe Nabers jumping on the loose ball in the end zone. By NFL rules, only the ball carrier can recover the fumble, so it was moved back to the spot of the fumble. That's something put in place due to the Ken Stabler "Holy Roller" play back in 1978 between these same franchises. The Raiders had a chance to recover the fumble, and win the game, which would have kept their playoff hopes alive. Herbert made good on his second chance, stretching for the touchdown, dashing the chances of the Raiders to make the postseason, and dashing the chances of the 'under' bettors, too.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board for Week 15 was the New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins (40) game, and despite the exploits of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who scored a pair of rushing touchdowns, the game lived up to its defensive expectations. Under bettors got off to a tremendous start, as the teams battled to a scoreless draw after 15 minutes. The Patriots took a 6-0 lead into the break, and over bettors were already ripping up their tickets. We saw 18 total points in the fourth quarter, but the game still went well under with a 22-12 win by Miami, avenging a 21-11 loss in Foxboro in Week 1, also an 'under' result.
The highest total on the board was in the Detroit Lions-Tennessee Titans (54.5) game, and it was never really in doubt. Tennesse fired out to a 14-7 lead after 15 minutes, and they held a 24-15 lead at halftime, well more than halfway to the total. Under bettors were shaking their heads after just three points by the Lions in the third quarter, with just 42 total points on the board through 45 minutes. However, the Titans offense fired up in the fourth quarter with 22 points, and the Lions chipped in with seven, and when the dust settled we had a total of 71 points on the board. All of that worrying for nothing, as Tennesse prevailed 45-26.
In the first primetime game Thursday night, we covered that above in the Chargers-Raiders 'over' result. The Sunday night game wasn't as prolific, as the Cleveland Browns topped the New York Giants by a 20-6 score with a total of 45. So the 'over/under' is 1-1 with Monday's game pending between the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals (40).
So far this season the under is 27-16 (62.8%) across 43 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 16
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The Vikings and Saints will square off on Christmas afternoon, and don't be surprised to see the Vikings actually a little like the Grinch. They were dropped 33-27 by the Chicago Bears at home in Week 15, all but ending their already bleak playoff aspirations. The Saints, who have already clinched a playoff spot, were dropped at home by the Chiefs in Week 15, and they're on a two-game slide heading into this one. So which one of these teams will find coal in their stocking on Friday, and who will cover? The Vikings are on an 0-5 ATS slide, although they are 4-2 ATS in their six games on the road. The Saints are 5-1-1 ATS across the past seven, although 0-1-1 ATS during their two-game skid. The 'over' has hit in the past two for NOLA, as their offense is averaging 25.0 PPG while yielding 28.0 PPG.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The 49ers hit the "road" for Saturday's afternoon game. Due to COVID-19 strict restrictions in Santa Clara County, Calif., the Niners had already relocated to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. for the remainder of the season. Oddly enough, COVID runs more rampant in Arizona than California at the moment, but the government restrictions are much less. So the 49ers will move from the home locker room to the customary road locker room against the Cards. These teams met in Week 1, with Arizona coming away with a 24-20 win at Levi's Stadium as the 'under' connected. Those were halcyon times for Frisco, as they're now 1-6 SU/ATS across the past seven, including three straight losses. Arizona has positioned themselves well for a playoff spot, winning the past two, going 2-0 ATS in the past two after an 0-5 ATS slide.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Rams are the reason the Jets no longer have a goose egg in their win column. L.A. fought back in the fourth quarter, but came up just short in an embarrassing loss. It isn't quite crippling to their playoff hopes, but the NFC West title will require a win in this game for sure. All four NFC West teams are 2-2 against the division so far. The Rams won the first game 23-16 in Los Angeles as the 'under' cashed. Seattle is 2-0 SU over the past two, and 4-1 SU across the past five, although they're just 2-3 ATS. The 'under' is on a 6-0 run for Seattle. The under has been the rule for Los Angeles, too, as the under has cashed in nine of the past 11 games overall, too.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Buffalo Bills clinched the AFC East on Saturday against the Denver Broncos, while the Patriots lost in Miami on Sunday to go 6-8 SU, officially snapping their consecutive streak of making the playoffs at 11 seasons. The Bills won 24-21 in Week 8 in the first meeting, although the Patriots did grab the cover. We'll find out a lot about the Patriots on Monday, as they play their first game with nothing actually at stake except for pride. One thing has been very consistent for the Patriots lately, as the 'under' has hit in six in a row.
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Jets +17 (ML +1000) at Rams, 23-20
Cowboys +4 (ML +170) vs. 49ers, 41-33
Chargers +3.5 (ML +155) at Raiders, 30-27 (OT)
Bears +3 (ML +130) at Vikings, 33-27
The largest favorites to cover
Ravens (-12.5) vs. Jaguars, 40-14
Titans (-8.5) vs. Lions, 45-26
Bills (-6) at Broncos, 48-19
Cardinals (-6) vs. Eagles, 33-26
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
If you were holding an 'under' ticket (49) in the Jacksonville Jaguars-Baltimore Ravens game, it was a gut-wrenching day from the jump.
The Ravens fired out to a 9-0 lead, much to the delight of side bettors laying the 13.5. Baltimore stepped on the gas even further, posting a 17-0 deficit in the second quarter to take a 26-0 lead into halftime. Under bettors were feeling very good about the Jaguars, as they were cooperating. Surely the scoring would drop off for the Ravens as they called off the dogs, right?
Well, kinda.
The Ravens did their part, managing just 14 points in the final 30 minutes. The Jaguars had just seven points until very late in the game. Baltimore lead 40-7 late into the fourth quarter, and past the two-minute warning. Under bettors were feeling very good...until 1:44 to go in the game, when the Jaguars had a QB Gardner Minshew to WR Chris Conley touchdown to make it 40-14. That's a tough way to lose your 'under' bet.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
Going back to Thursday's game between the Los Angeles Chargers-Las Vegas Raiders, again, if you were an 'under' (52.5) bettors...ouch.
The first half started slow enough, as the Bolts posted a 7-3 lead after 15 minutes, and the 'under' (52.5) bettors were feeling good, as they were well on pace. The Chargers ended up taking a 17-10 lead into the break, and the 'over' was then trending. Under bettors were feeling slightly better, in a weird way, as QB David Carr (groin) ended up leaving the game for good in the first half. While nobody ever likes to see someone injured, it's usually good to see a backup coming in if you're an 'under' bettor.
However, backup QB Marcus Mariota led the comeback, erasing a 24-17 lead with a 2-yard diving run for the pylon with 6:16 to go in regulation. It was the only score in the final 17:08 of regulation. That meant overtime, and that's never a good thing for under bettors, either.
However, the Raiders chewed up a ton of clock before settling for a 23-yard field goal for PK Daniel Carlson with just 3:18 left in the extra session. If you were holding an under ticket you were still in good shape as long as the Vegas defense stepped up.
They didn't.
QB Justin Herbert stretched for the goal line and fumbled, with FB Gabe Nabers jumping on the loose ball in the end zone. By NFL rules, only the ball carrier can recover the fumble, so it was moved back to the spot of the fumble. That's something put in place due to the Ken Stabler "Holy Roller" play back in 1978 between these same franchises. The Raiders had a chance to recover the fumble, and win the game, which would have kept their playoff hopes alive. Herbert made good on his second chance, stretching for the touchdown, dashing the chances of the Raiders to make the postseason, and dashing the chances of the 'under' bettors, too.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board for Week 15 was the New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins (40) game, and despite the exploits of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who scored a pair of rushing touchdowns, the game lived up to its defensive expectations. Under bettors got off to a tremendous start, as the teams battled to a scoreless draw after 15 minutes. The Patriots took a 6-0 lead into the break, and over bettors were already ripping up their tickets. We saw 18 total points in the fourth quarter, but the game still went well under with a 22-12 win by Miami, avenging a 21-11 loss in Foxboro in Week 1, also an 'under' result.
The highest total on the board was in the Detroit Lions-Tennessee Titans (54.5) game, and it was never really in doubt. Tennesse fired out to a 14-7 lead after 15 minutes, and they held a 24-15 lead at halftime, well more than halfway to the total. Under bettors were shaking their heads after just three points by the Lions in the third quarter, with just 42 total points on the board through 45 minutes. However, the Titans offense fired up in the fourth quarter with 22 points, and the Lions chipped in with seven, and when the dust settled we had a total of 71 points on the board. All of that worrying for nothing, as Tennesse prevailed 45-26.
In the first primetime game Thursday night, we covered that above in the Chargers-Raiders 'over' result. The Sunday night game wasn't as prolific, as the Cleveland Browns topped the New York Giants by a 20-6 score with a total of 45. So the 'over/under' is 1-1 with Monday's game pending between the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals (40).
So far this season the under is 27-16 (62.8%) across 43 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 16
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The Vikings and Saints will square off on Christmas afternoon, and don't be surprised to see the Vikings actually a little like the Grinch. They were dropped 33-27 by the Chicago Bears at home in Week 15, all but ending their already bleak playoff aspirations. The Saints, who have already clinched a playoff spot, were dropped at home by the Chiefs in Week 15, and they're on a two-game slide heading into this one. So which one of these teams will find coal in their stocking on Friday, and who will cover? The Vikings are on an 0-5 ATS slide, although they are 4-2 ATS in their six games on the road. The Saints are 5-1-1 ATS across the past seven, although 0-1-1 ATS during their two-game skid. The 'over' has hit in the past two for NOLA, as their offense is averaging 25.0 PPG while yielding 28.0 PPG.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The 49ers hit the "road" for Saturday's afternoon game. Due to COVID-19 strict restrictions in Santa Clara County, Calif., the Niners had already relocated to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. for the remainder of the season. Oddly enough, COVID runs more rampant in Arizona than California at the moment, but the government restrictions are much less. So the 49ers will move from the home locker room to the customary road locker room against the Cards. These teams met in Week 1, with Arizona coming away with a 24-20 win at Levi's Stadium as the 'under' connected. Those were halcyon times for Frisco, as they're now 1-6 SU/ATS across the past seven, including three straight losses. Arizona has positioned themselves well for a playoff spot, winning the past two, going 2-0 ATS in the past two after an 0-5 ATS slide.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Rams are the reason the Jets no longer have a goose egg in their win column. L.A. fought back in the fourth quarter, but came up just short in an embarrassing loss. It isn't quite crippling to their playoff hopes, but the NFC West title will require a win in this game for sure. All four NFC West teams are 2-2 against the division so far. The Rams won the first game 23-16 in Los Angeles as the 'under' cashed. Seattle is 2-0 SU over the past two, and 4-1 SU across the past five, although they're just 2-3 ATS. The 'under' is on a 6-0 run for Seattle. The under has been the rule for Los Angeles, too, as the under has cashed in nine of the past 11 games overall, too.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Buffalo Bills clinched the AFC East on Saturday against the Denver Broncos, while the Patriots lost in Miami on Sunday to go 6-8 SU, officially snapping their consecutive streak of making the playoffs at 11 seasons. The Bills won 24-21 in Week 8 in the first meeting, although the Patriots did grab the cover. We'll find out a lot about the Patriots on Monday, as they play their first game with nothing actually at stake except for pride. One thing has been very consistent for the Patriots lately, as the 'under' has hit in six in a row.
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