The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

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301LA CHARGERS -302 LAS VEGAS
LAS VEGAS are 0-13 ATS (-14.3 Units) in home games after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.

341HOUSTON -342 INDIANAPOLIS
HOUSTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

343CAROLINA -344 GREEN BAY
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in the last 3 seasons.

345BUFFALO -346 DENVER
DENVER is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.

347DETROIT -348 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival since 1992.

349NY JETS -350 LA RAMS
LA RAMS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

351TAMPA BAY -352 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games vs. good offenses (>=24 PPG) since 1992.

353NEW ENGLAND -354 MIAMI
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.

355SEATTLE -356 WASHINGTON
SEATTLE is 55-25 ATS (27.5 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.

357CHICAGO -358 MINNESOTA
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

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NFL Week 15 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Washington quarterback Alex Smith suffered a strained calf and sat out the second half of a win over the 49ers. His Week 15 status is uncertain, and WFT quickly moved from +3.5 to +5 against Seattle.

NFL Week 14 wrapped up on time Monday night, and it's on to NFL Week 15 odds, with several betting factors already in play. That includes the typical injury information, including Washington potentially being without quarterback Alex Smith and running back Antonio Gibson.

Week 15 Injuries

Washington Football Team: Quarterback Alex Smith suffered a strained calf in the first half of Washington's win over San Francisco and sat out the second half. His status is uncertain Sunday at home against Seattle, as is the status of running back Antonio Gibson (turf toe), who didn't play against the 49ers. The SuperBook opened WFT +3.5, and that number shot to +4.5 Sunday night and to +5 Monday morning. The total opened at 43 and ticked up to 43.5 Monday.

Carolina Panthers: Running back Christian McCaffrey couldn't make Week 14, but it looks as if he'll be on the field for a Saturday night game at Green Bay. McCaffrey was set to return from a shoulder injury last week, then suffered a thigh injury in practice. Carolina opened +9 at The SuperBook on Sunday evening and moved to +8.5 Monday morning.

Detroit Lions: Quarterback Matthew Stafford hurt his ribs late in a Week 14 home loss to Green Bay, and his status for a Week 15 Sunday tilt at Tennessee won't be determined until later in the week. As such, the Lions-Titans game is off the board Monday at The SuperBook.

Miami Dolphins: Wideouts DeVante Parker (leg) and Jakeem Grant (hamstring), and tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder) all got hurt in Sunday's loss to Kansas City. As of Monday, the status for all three is uncertain, with Grant appearing the least likely to play in Sunday's home game against New England. The early line movement at The SuperBook helped reflect that, as the Dolphins opened -3 and dipped to -2.5 Sunday night. The total dropped 1.5 points by Monday afternoon, to 41.

Philadelphia Eagles: Philly has a cluster of injuries in the defensive backfield. Safety Rodney McLeod (torn ACL) is done for the year, and cornerbacks Darius Slay (concussion protocol) and Avonte Maddox (knee) are uncertain for Sunday's game at Arizona. The Eagles opened +5.5 at The SuperBook and were already up to +6.5 Monday.


Week 15 Weather

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: There's a 30 percent chance of snow early in the day, ahead of this Saturday night contest. The main issue noted in the early forecast will simply be that it's chilly during the game, with temperatures in the upper 20s and light winds of 5-10 mph.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Thursday’s game
LA Chargers (4-9) @ Las Vegas (7-6)
— Chargers snapped a 5-game skid with their last-second win last week.
— Bolts are 1-5 SU on road, beating Bengals 16-13 in Week 1.
— Last four games, Charger were outscored 79-23 in first half.
— Chargers are 2-4-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
— Last three Charger games stayed under the total.
— Last week was first time in ten games Chargers gave up fewer than 27 points.

— Raiders fired their DC after last week’s 44-27 loss to Indy.
— Las Vegas lost three of last four games, giving up 35-43-28-44 points.
— Raiders are 2-4 SU at home, beating Saints/Denver.
— Raiders turned ball over 10 times in last three games (-6)
— Las Vegas is 3-2 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.
— Over is 10-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last three games, Las Vegas allowed 15 TD’s on 40 drives.

— Raiders (-1) beat Chargers 31-26 in Week 9, at SoFi Field.
— Chargers outgained Las Vegas, 440-320, but scored only 16 points on four red zone drives.
— Raiders won last three series games, by 2-7-5 points.

Saturday’s games
Panthers (4-9) @ Green Bay (10-3)
— Carolina lost seven of its last eight games; they covered 3 of last 5.
— Panthers are 4-9 despite a +5 turnover ratio.
— Panthers covered their last five games as road underdogs.
— Carolina is 0-9 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
— Last three weeks, Panthers outscored opponents 53-37 in second half.
— Carolina is 1-5 this year in games decided by 5 or fewer points.

— Green Bay won five of last six games, scoring 32.8 ppg in last four.
— Packers scored 30+ points in nine of their wins; 10-22-31 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 76-153 third down plays (49.7%)
— Packers are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite, 4-2 TY.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten Green Bay games.
— Packers were outscored in 2nd half in 8 of their last 10 games.

— Home side won last four series games.
— Teams split last eight games overall.
— Panthers lost five of last seven visits to Lambeau; they lost 24-16 there LY.

Bills (10-3) @ Denver (5-8)
— Buffalo won six of its last seven games, covered last five.
— Bills outscored last five opponents 83-39 in first half.
— Buffalo has a 2-game lead over Miami in the AFC East.
— Bills scored 24+ points in nine of their ten wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 1-3 TY.
— Over is 9-4 in their games this season.

— Denver lost six of last eight games, covered three of last four.
— Denver is 2-4 SU at home, giving up 34.7 ppg in last three home tilts.
— Broncos are 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games as home dogs, 3-3 TY.
— Denver turned ball over 18 times (-11) in their last eight games.
— Four of their six home games stayed under total.
— Denver K McManus tested positive for COVID Monday, is a ?? here.

— Buffalo won four of last five series games.
— Bills lost three of last four visits to Denver, with last visit in 2014.

Sunday’s games
Texans (4-9) @ Indianapolis (9-4)
— Texans are 2-5 SU on road this year, beating Lions/Jaguars.
— Houston are 0-8 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans had 20+ points at the half in four of last six games.
— Houston didn’t score a second half point in their last two games.
— Over is 4-2-1 in Houston’s road games this year.
— Texans are 0-3-1 ATS this season as road underdogs.

— Colts won six of their last eight games.
— Indy lost two of its last three home games.
— Colts are 7-0 when they score 28+ points. 2-4 when they do not.
— Indy is 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 1-3 TY.
— Seven of their last nine games went over the total.
— Last five games, Colts outscored opponents 79-23 in 2nd half.

— Colts (-3) beat Houston 26-20 two weeks ago; it was 24-20 at halftime
— Indy was +2 in turnovers, won field position by 10 years.
— Colts won six of last eight series games.
— Texas won three of last four visits to Indy.

Lions (5-8) @ Tennessee (9-4)
— Lions’ QB Stafford is banged up (ribs; check status)
— Chase Daniel (2-3 as starter in 11 years) is the backup QB.
— Lions are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
— Detroit allowed 27+ points in six of its last seven games.
— Lions are 15-15 ATS in last 30 games as road underdogs, 3-2 TY.
— Detroit scored 27.7 ppg the last three weeks.
— Five of last seven Lion games went over the total.

— Tennessee won three of last four games, is tied for first in AFC South.
— Titans lost last two home games, giving up 34-41 points.
— Titans were +10 in turnovers the first five games, are minus-2 since.
— Last two weeks, Tennessee outscored opponents 42-10 in second half.
— Over is 8-3-1 in Titans’ last 12 games.
— Titans are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY.

— Tennessee won last five series games, last two 44-41 OT/16-15.
— Lions lost 24-19/44-41OT in visits to Nashville.

NJ Jets (0-13) @ Rams (9-4)
— Winless Jets are 4-9 ATS, covering four of last seven games.
— Jets allowed 30+ points in five of last six games.
— Jets have been outscored 97-44 in 2nd half of their last eight games.
— Jets are winless, but their turnover ratio is only minus-1.
— Jets are 9-21-2 ATS in last 32 games as road dogs, 1-5 TY.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

— Rams won four of their last five games.
— LA clinches a playoff spot with win or a tie here.
— LA has outscored opponents 164-82 in second half of games.
— Rams won five of six home games SU (4-2 ATS)
— Eight of LA’s last ten games stayed under the total.
— Rams are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY.
— Rams had 15 takeaways in last seven games; had only six in first six games.

— Rams won eight of last ten series games.
— LA won last meeting 9-6, four years ago.
— Jets lost five of seven visits to LA/St Louis/Anaheim

Buccaneers (8-5) @ Atlanta (4-9)
— Buccaneers lost three of their last five games.
— Tampa Bay is 8-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Last four games, Bucs converted 25-50 third down plays.
— Bucs won last three road games, scoring 38.7 ppg.
— Tampa Bay is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as road favorites.
— Last six games, Bucs were outscored 105-58 in first half.

— Falcons lost three of their last four games.
— Atlanta is 2-5 SU at home, beating Raiders/Denver.
— Atlanta led six of its last eight games at halftime.
— Last four games, Falcons allowed only 17.8 ppg.
— Atlanta is 3-4 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.
— Eight of their last ten games stayed under the total.

— Atlanta won six of last seven series games.
— Average total in last eight series games: 58
— Teams split last six meetings played here.
— Falcons’ interim coach Morris was Bucs’ HC from 2009-11.
— These teams meet again in Week 17.

Patriots (6-7) @ Miami (8-5)
— New England won four of its last six games.
— Underdogs covered eight of last nine Patriot games.
— New England trailed at halftime in eight of its last ten games.
— Last six games, NE outscored opponents 70-37 in second half.
— Patriots are 6-4 ATS in last ten games as home favorites, 2-2 TY.
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten games.

— Dolphins won seven of their last nine games.
— Dolphins covered eight of their last nine games.
— Miami is 2-5 this season when they allow more than 17 points.
— Miami is 8-1-2 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Dolphins have 15 takeaways in last six games (+9)
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

— This is first time since 2013 (14 games) that Miami is favored over NE.
— Patriots (-6.5) beat Miami 21-11 in Foxboro in Week 1; NE ran ball for 217 yards.
— New England lost four of last six visits to South Beach.

Seahawks (9-4) @ Washington (6-7)
— Seattle won three of its last four games overall.
— Seahawks lost three of last four road games.
— Last four games, Seahawks outscored foes 58-18 in first half.
— Seattle is 8-3-4 ATS in last 15 games as home faves, 3-2 TY.
— Last five Seattle games stayed under the total.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (3-9) their last six games.

— QB Smith (calf) is a ?? here; big drop-off between Smith and backup Haskins.
— Washington won/covered its last four games.
— Washington outscored last six opponents 108-30 in second half.
— Washington split its six home games SU this year.
— Washington is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
— Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Washington games.

— Teams split last eight series games (Seattle 3-0 in playoff games)
— Seattle won 24-14/27-17 in last two visits here (last one in 2014)

Bears (6-7) @ Minnesota (6-7)
— Bears snapped their six-game losing skid last week.
— Last three games, Chicago scored 30.3 ppg.
— Bears lost last three road games, by 14-7-16 points.
— Bears are 9-16-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road dog, 3-3 TY.
— Chicago has only six takeaways in its last seven games (-5).
— Under is 7-3 in Bears’ last ten games.

— Vikings won five of seven games; they’re game out of playoffs.
— Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
— Vikings won field position in only one game so far this year.
— Minnesota is 3-4 SU at home, winning by 14-1-3 points.
— Minnesota is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— Six of seven Viking home games went over the total.

— Vikings (-2.5) beat Chicago 19-13 in Chicago in Week 10, outgaining Bears 385-149.
— Minnesota was 8-15 on 3rd down, Chicago 2-11.
— Bears won four of last five series games, winning 24-10/21-19 in last two visits here.

Jaguars (1-12) @ Baltimore (8-5)
— Jaguars lost their last 12 games, but covered four of last six.
— Four of their last six losses were by 4 or fewer points.
— Last three weeks, Jacksonville gave up 200.3 rushing yards/game.
— Jaguars are 7-6-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road dog, 3-3 TY.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Minshew is back as starting QB; he threw for 178 yards in relief LW.

— Yet another short week for the Ravens, who played Monday.
— Baltimore won last two games, scoring 34-47 points.
— Ravens lost field position in only one game this season.
— Ravens are 11-18 ATS in last 29 games as home favorites, 3-3 TY.
— Over is 3-1 in Baltimore’s last four games.
— Emotional game Monday night; Ravens are tied with Miami for #7-seed.

— Jaguars won four of last seven series games, but lost six of last seven visits here.
— Teams last met here in 2015.

Eagles (4-8-1) Arizona (7-6)
— Rookie QB Hurts gets his 2nd NFL start here.
— Eagles lost four of last five games; they’re 1-5 SU on road.
— Philly is 2-6-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Eagles are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as road dogs, 1-2 TY.
— Eight of last 11 Philly games stayed under the total.

— Arizona lost four of their last six games SU.
— Cardinals covered once in their last six games.
— Arizona has a one-game lead for the #7-seed (last playoff spot)
— Redbirds are 6-12 ATS in last 18 games as home favorites, 1-3 TY.
— Under is 3-1 in last four Cardinal games.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 13 games.

— Arizona won five of last seven series games.
— Eagles lost last four visits here; their last win in Arizona was in 2002.

Chiefs (12-1) @ New Orleans (10-3)
— Chiefs won their last eight games, are 0-5 ATS in last five.
— Kansas City won all seven of its road games this year (3-4 ATS)
— Chiefs are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite, 2-4 TY.
— Last five games, Kansas City allowed 25.8 ppg
— Chiefs averaged at least 7.6 ypa in each of its last six games.
— Kansas City have one-game lead for #1-seed in AFC.

— New Orleans had its 8-game win streak snapped last week.
— Saints covered five of their last six games.
— Saints allowed four TD’s on opponents’ last 44 drives.
— Hill is expected to be at QB again; Brees is closer to playing, though.
— Saints are 15-22 ATS in last 37 games as a road favorite, 2-4 TY.
— Five of last six New Orleans games stayed under the total.

— Chiefs won four of last six series games, winning 27-24/27-21 in last two
— Kansas City won four of six visits to New Orleans, not counting Super Bowl IV.

49ers (5-8) @ Dallas (4-9)
— 49ers lost five of their last six games SU.
— SF is 5-15 SU in last 20 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 33.1 ppg in their losses.
— Last six games, SF was outscored 84-41 in first half.
— 49ers are 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a favorite away from home.
— Three of their last four games went under the total.

— Dallas is 0-3 ATS this year in game following a win.
— Cowboys lost six of their last eight games overall.
— Dallas was leading at halftime in four of last six games.
— Cowboys are 3-10 ATS this year; last week was their first win by more than 3 points.
— Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.
— Dallas is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as home underdogs, 1-1 TY.

— Dallas won five of last six series games.
— Teams split last four meetings here, last of which was in 2014.

Browns (10-3) @ NJ Giants (5-8)
— Cleveland won four of last five games, scoring 33 ppg in last four.
— Monday was first game Browns lost when they scored more than 7 points.
— Last two games, Cleveland allowed 28-26 points in second half.
— Cleveland won four of six road games SU.
— Browns are 1-6 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
— Over is 8-4 in their last dozen games.
— Short week after an emotional loss for Browns Monday

— Giants won four of their last five games, covered eight of last ten.
— Giants are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS outside their division.
— Seven of Giants’ last nine games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Big Blue is 0-5 SU when they run ball for less than 100 yards.
— Giants are 3-13 ATS in last 16 games as a home dog, 2-3 TY.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

— Giants won four of five series games.
— Browns lost 27-10/41-27 in two series games played here.

Monday’s game
Steelers (11-2) @ Cincinnati (2-10-1)
— Steelers lost their last two games, after an 11-0 start.
— Last three games, Steelers scored only 17 ppg.
— Pittsburgh is 3-6-2 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
— Steelers are +11 in turnovers this season, +6 in last six games.
— Last five weeks, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 72-29 in first half of games

— Bengals lost last five games by a combined 124-50.
— Cincinnati has only five TD’s on its last 53 drives.
— Cincinnati is 3-1-1 ATS this season as a home underdog.
— Bengals trailed at halftime only twice in last eight games.
— Cincy allowed 16+ points in 2nd half, in each of its last eight games.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.

— Pitt (-6.5) beat Bengals 36-10 in Week 10, throwing for 333 yards.
— Bengals were 0-13 on third down in first meeting.
— Steelers won last 11 series games, last seven visits to Cincinnati.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 15
Bruce Marshall

Week 15 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Dec. 17

L.A. CHARGERS at LAS VEGAS
Bolts no wins or covers six of last seven this season, though broke losing streak last week vs. Falcs.
Raiders have won and covered last three meetings, though went to last play on Nov. 8 at So Fi, and have dropped last three vs. line in 2020.
Vegas 9-3-1 “over” this season.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals" trends.


Saturday, Dec. 19

BUFFALO at DENVER
Into last Sunday night vs. Steelers, Bills were on four straight covers after win vs. 49ers, also now 8-3-1 “over” this season.
Denver 13-7 last 20 as dog, also “under” 4-1 last five TY.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bills, based on recent trends.

CAROLINA at GREEN BAY
Panthers have been tough on road, covered last four away, all as dog.
Rhule 7-1 last 8 as dog in 2020.

Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.


Sunday, Dec. 20

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS

Indy has covered only 1 of last 4 at Lucas Oil.
Colts, however, have won and covered last five meetings.

Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on series trends.

DETROIT at TENNESSEE
Titans now “over” 9-3 last 12 in 2020 and “over” 20-6 since Tannehill took over at QB in mid 2019.
Lions “over” 8-4-1 this season.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA
Series has gone “over” last four and 7 of last 8 meetings.
Bucs “over” 18-10-1 for Arians since LY.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI
Dolphins have won 7 and covered 8 of last 8 this season, and looking back to early 2019 are now 19-6 vs. line last 25 for Flores.
Miami also “under” 8-5 in 2020, Belichick “under” 9-4 after Rams game.
Patriots 2-5 vs. spread away TY.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at DALLAS
Cowboys got rare win last week at Cincy but still miserable 3-10 vs. line TY.
Niners 4-2 vs. spread on road in 2020, now 10-4 vs. spread as visitor since LY.

Tech Edge: 49ers, based on team trends.

SEATTLE at WASHINGTON
WFT has won and covered last four in 2020, also “under” 6-2-1 last nine in 2020.
Hawks no covers 4 of last 6 or 6 of last 9 in 2020.
Seattle also “under” 5-0 last five TY.

Tech Edge: Football Team and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA
Bears broke 6-game SU skid last week vs. Texans, but still just 1-4 vs. line last five TY.
“Unders” 5-2 last seven meetings including Nov. 16 at Soldier Field on a Monday.
Chicago on 25-11 “under” run since late 2018.
Vikes, however, “over” 8-4-1 this season, though just 2-5 vs. spread at US Bank.

Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at BALTIMORE
Jags no outright wins since opening week but have covered 4 of last 6 TY.
Jags also 6-3 “under” last nine.
Ravens 3-3 vs. line at home TY, and 1-1-1 laying DD.

Tech Edge: Slight to “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

N.Y. JETS at L.A. RAMS
Jets still winless SU but have covered 4 of last 7 TY.
Rams 0-1 as DD chalk TY, though McVay had covered previous six in role since 2017.
Rams “under” 9-4 in 2020 after Patriots game.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA
Both broke recent skids last week, as Cards had failed to cover previous five.
Eagles just 4-9 vs. line previous 13, before each got wins and covers last week.
Philly “under” 6-1 last seven TY, Cards “under” 8-4-1 in 2020.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at NEW ORLEANS
Super Bowl preview? Chiefs still winning outright lately but no covers last five in 2020.
Saints “under” 5-1 last six in 2020.
NO 5-1 SU and vs. line last six this season.

Tech Edge: Saints and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

CLEVELAND at N.Y. GIANTS
G-Men have won four of last five outright and 7-2-1 last ten vs. spread in 2020.
NY “under” 9-3-1 this season.
Into Ravens on Monday, Brownies had only covered 1 of 6 prior to win at Titans last week.

Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.


Monday, Dec. 21

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
Steel 10-0 SU, 7-2-1 vs. spread last ten reg season meetings vs. Cincy.
“Unders” last five and 7-1-1 last eight meetings.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Steelers, based on series trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack
Updated odds to win the Super Bowl (from Action Network):
9-5- Kansas City
13-2- Green Bay
7-1- New Orleans
11-1- LA Rams
12-1- Buffalo
13-1- Pittsburgh

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 306,363
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“Me and my wife were happy for 20 years. Then we met.”
Rodney Dangerfield

Thursday’s quiz
What two teams played in the first Super Bowl?

Wednesday’s quiz
Oklahoma City Thunder were the Seattle SuperSonics, before moving to Oklahoma.

Tuesday’s quiz
Joe Flacco was QB for the Baltimore Ravens, last time they won the Super Bowl.


************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) One thing that is understated in sports is how tough pro football players are; it is a violent game where guys get hurt a lot, but I had never heard of someone having a fractured throat.

Lions’ center Frank Ragnow fractured his throat during Sunday’s loss to Green Bay, but he finished the game. His breathing is fine, but he has been told not to speak until doctors figure out what’s up with his throat.

A “fractured throat” used to be known as a “laryngeal fracture”; Ragnow couldn’t make line calls Sunday after the injury, but he kept snapping the ball and finished the game. Tough guy.

12) There is an increasing trend in college football; it is not a problem really, just disappointing, I guess. Of the top 50 QB recruits from 2014-18, 171 of those kids (68.4%) have either quit, transferred or changed positions. If a young QB ain’t starting, he’ll likely be departing.

Speaking of which, Temple QB Anthony Russo will transfer from the Owls to Michigan State.

11) Virginia Tech opted not to play in a bowl game this season, ended their streak of playing in a bowl for 27 straight seasons, which was the longest active streak in the country. Tech had a ton of issues with COVID this fall; 8 of their 10 full-time coaches, 75% of their players were touched by the virus.

10) ESPN’s Monday Night Football analyst Louis Riddick will interview for NFL GM jobs; he has already interviewed with the Houston Texans for their general manager position.

9) FOX football analyst Chris Spielman is leaving the network to become an advisor for the Detroit Lions, where he played linebacker. Spielman’s brother is GM of the Minnesota Vikings.

8) High school basketball coaches in Texas can coach their teams for as much as nine months every year, by having them sign up for “phys ed” classes. Very unusual.

7) Scheduling-on-the-fly is a very 2020 thing. Gonzaga/Iowa hooked up for a basketball game this Saturday; should be a good one. #1-ranked Gonzaga hasn’t played since December 2nd.

6) Six kickers have tried a field goal or PAT for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season, which is the most by any NFL team in the last 50 years. Jaguars are also the only team in NFL history to have a different kicker try a field goal or PAT five weeks in a row.

5) Gordon Hayward recently signed a 4-year, $120M contract with Charlotte Hornets; he broke a bone in his right (shooting) hand during a preseason game Monday night. Hayward’s return apparently will be based on how much pain he can tolerate, which doesn’t sound good.

4) Baseball stuff:
— Giants are signing P Anthony DeSclafani to a 1-year, $6M deal.

3) Seattle Mariners are committing to a 6-man pitching rotation for next season, which is something that is done in Japanese baseball.

2) 48-year old Manny Ramirez is playing in the Australian Baseball League this winter; those games usually show up somewhere on TV. Might be interesting to see if Ramirez can still hit.

1) Was watching an old movie late Tuesday night; Three Days of the Condor, starring Robert Redford, Faye Dunaway. Redford plays a CIA employee who stumbles into criminal activity; good movie, with two actors playing smaller roles who are better known for other things.

— Russell Johnson is in this movie briefly; he had played the Professor on Gilligan’s Island, 7-8 years before this movie was made.
— Richard Sanders also had a small role; years later, he would play Les Nessman in the comedy WKRP in Cincinnati.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 15

Thursday’s game
LA Chargers (4-9) @ Las Vegas (7-6)
— Chargers snapped a 5-game skid with their last-second win last week.
— Bolts are 1-5 SU on road, beating Bengals 16-13 in Week 1.
— Last four games, Charger were outscored 79-23 in first half.
— Chargers are 2-4-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
— Last three Charger games stayed under the total.
— Last week was first time in ten games Chargers gave up fewer than 27 points.

— Raiders fired their DC after last week’s 44-27 loss to Indy.
— Las Vegas lost three of last four games, giving up 35-43-28-44 points.
— Raiders are 2-4 SU at home, beating Saints/Denver.
— Raiders turned ball over 10 times in last three games (-6)
— Las Vegas is 3-2 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.
— Over is 10-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last three games, Las Vegas allowed 15 TD’s on 40 drives.

— Raiders (-1) beat Chargers 31-26 in Week 9, at SoFi Field.
— Chargers outgained Las Vegas, 440-320, but scored only 16 points on four red zone drives.
— Raiders won last three series games, by 2-7-5 points.



*********************************


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 17

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAC at LV 08:20 PM

LAC +3.5

U 51.5

[StarDust Bum]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/14/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/13/2020 11-15-0 42.31% -2750 Detail
12/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Totals..........30-30-1......50.00%....-15.00

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack
Spreads on some of the early bowl games:

— North Texas (-19) vs Appalachian State (Myrtle Beach Bowl)

— Tulane (-3) vs Nevada (Idaho Potato Bowl)

— BYU (-3.5) vs Central Florida (Boca Raton Bowl)

— Louisiana Tech (-4.5) vs Georgia Southern (New Orleans Bowl)

— Florida Atlantic (-10) vs Memphis (Montgomery Bowl)

— Georgia State (-5) vs Western Kentucky (First Responder Bowl)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 314,572
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“Seven straight SEC wins. Some schools ain’t even playing seven games. I don’t care what league you’re in. If you’re gonna pick the best four teams, we’re one of them.”
Texas A&M football coach Jimbo Fisher

Sunday’s quiz
Who was the last football team other than Clemson to win the ACC title?

Saturday’s quiz
Alvin Gentry was coach of the Phoenix Suns last time they made the playoffs, in 2010.

Friday’s quiz
Aaron Rodgers played his college football for the Cal Bears.

*********************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Bills 48, Denver 19
— Bills win AFC East for first time in 25 years.
— Buffalo won seven of its last eight games, covered last six.
— Bills outscored last five opponents 104-52 in first half.
— Diggs/Beasley both had 100+ receiving yards for Buffalo

— Denver lost seven of its last nine games.
— Broncos lost five of their seven home games.
— Denver turned ball over 19 times (-11) in their last nine games.
— Broncos were outgained, 534-255.

12) Green Bay 24, Panthers 16:
— Carolina lost eight of its last nine games overall.
— Panthers are 4-10 despite a +4 turnover ratio.
— Panthers covered their last six games as road underdogs.
— Carolina is 0-10 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.

— Packers’ first three drives: 27 plays, 203 yards, 21 points.
— Green Bay won six of last seven games, scoring 31.0 ppg in last five.
— Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games.
— Packers were outscored in second half in 9 of their last 11 games.

11) San Jose State 34, Boise State 20:
— Brent Brennan has done one of the best coaching jobs in the history of man; two years ago, San Jose went 1-11. Now they’re Mountain West champs.

— Spartans finish regular season 7-0, their best record since 1939.
— All seven of San Jose’s wins are by 10+ points.

10) Clemson 34, Notre Dame 10:
— Tigers outgained Notre Dame, 541-263; this wasn’t very interesting.
— Etienne carried the ball 10 times for 124 yards.
— Now the playoff selection committee has the drama they crave; who gets the 4th bid?

9) LSU 53, Ole Miss 48:
— LSU receiver Kayshon Boutte caught 14 passes for 308 yards, three TD’s.
— Ole Miss QB Corral threw for 251 yards, ran for 158 more, but threw five INT’s.
— How do you turn the ball over six times and still score 48 points?
— LSU QB Johnson threw for 435 yards, three TD’s.

8) Utah 45, Washington State 28:
— Coogs (+11) led 28-7 at halftime, didn’t even cover the spread.

7) Gonzaga 99, Iowa 88:
— Zags spanked Iowa; this was their first game in 17 days.
— Gonzaga was minus-6 in turnovers, made only 14-24 on line, still scored 99 points.
— Iowa G Connor McCaffery is the coach’s son; he’s played 156:00 in seven games, has taken a total of 19 shots- you don’t have to guard him much.

6) Western Kentucky 73, Alabama 71:
— Big man Bassey had 27 points, 12 boards; why is he playing in Conference USA?
— Hilltoppers are 6-2, with three top 80 wins- they’re #43 in experience.
— 46.7% of Alabama’s shots are 3’s, but they’re only making 29.3% of them (#254).

5) North Carolina 75, Kentucky 63:
— Kentucky is 1-5 for first time since 1927.
— Wildcats played 7 freshmen, a soph, two seniors; they’re #324 in continuity.
— Teams combined to shoot 8-33 on the arc.
— Kentucky was up 11 early in this game, led by 4 at the half, died down the stretch.

4) Ohio State 77, UCLA 70:
— OSU outscored the Bruins 29-16 over final 12:40 of this game.
— Buckeyes shot 60.7% inside the arc.
— UCLA is playing a Cronin-like #343 pace; the locals ain’t going to like that, especially when you lose the more visible games, like this one.

3) Iona 72, Rider 64:
— Rick Pitino’s Gaels are off to a 3-1 start in the MAAC.
— Iona has given up only 57.1 ppg in their league games.
— Iona has a new coach, all new players (#265 in continuity) but he is a great coach.

2) Stanford 78, Arizona 75:
— Arizona made 11-23 on the arc, only 12-23 on foul line.
— Arizona has an almost whole new team (continuity #307).
— Stanford, on the other hand, is #32 in continuity.

1) Big college football news around 11pm; the Rose Bowl is relocating from Pasadena to Arlington, TX. Rose Bowl is also one of the semi-finals in the playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS +6.5
O 43.5

TB at ATL 01:00 PM
TB -6.5
U 49.5

CHI at MIN 01:00 PM
CHI +2.5
U 47.0

JAC at BAL 01:00 PM
JAC +13.0
O 48.0

HOU at IND 01:00 PM
IND -7.5
U 51.0

NE at MIA 01:00 PM
NE +1.0
O 41.5

SF at DAL 01:00 PM
DAL +3.0
U 45.0

NYJ at LAR 04:05 PM
LAR -17.5
U 43.5

PHI at ARI 04:05 PM
PHI +6.5
U 49.5

KC at NO 04:25 PM
KC -2.5
O 52.5

CLE at NYG 08:20 PM
NYG +6.5
U 44.0

[StarDust Bum]

[StarDust Bum]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


12/20/2020 9-13-0 40.91% -2650 Detail
12/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/14/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/13/2020 11-15-0 42.31% -2750 Detail
12/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


Totals..........39-43-1......47.56%....-41.50

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack
Interesting Week 16 NFL spreads:
— Minnesota @ New Orleans (-7.5)
— Tampa Bay (-8) @ Detroit
— San Francisco @ Arizona (-3.5)
— Miami (-2.5) @ Las Vegas
— Denver @ LA Chargers (-3)
— Cleveland (-10) @ NJ Jets

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 316,013
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“This is one of those disappointing wins the way that we played in the second half. So I have a sour taste in my mouth how we played in the second half. We’ve got to get back to the drawing board. That kind of football is not going to beat a lot of teams.”
Aaron Rodgers

Monday’s quiz
When was the last time an NFL team made the playoffs with a losing record?

Sunday’s quiz
Florida State was the last football team other than Clemson to win the ACC title, in 2014.

Saturday’s quiz
Alvin Gentry was coach of the Phoenix Suns last time they made the playoffs, in 2010.

*****************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

Indianapolis 27, Texans 20:
— WR Coutee fumbled on Colts’ 1-yard line in last minute.
— Texans in red zone: 4 drives, 13 points. Indy: 4 drives, 24 points.
— Houston is 0-9 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans’ last five drives: 50 plays, 363 yards, 2 TDs, 2 FGs, one fumble.

— Colts won seven of their last nine games overall.
— Indy/Tennessee are tied for first in AFC South.
— Indianapolis won seven of last nine series games.
— Last five games, Colts outscored opponents 92-33 in 2nd half.

Tennessee 46, Lions 25:
— Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
— Detroit allowed 27+ points in seven of its last eight games.
— Detroit scored 27.0 ppg the last four weeks.
— Six of last eight Lion games went over the total.

— Titans converted nine of 11 third down plays.
— Tennessee won four of last five games, is tied for first in AFC South.
— First three drives: 21 plays, 243 yards, three TD’s.
— Last three drives: 25 plays, 160 yards, three TD’s.

Buccaneers 31, Atlanta 27
— Buccaneers trailed this game 17-0 at halftime.
— Bucs’ first three drives in third quarter: 22 plays, 231 yards, three TD’s.
— Last five games, Bucs converted 29-60 third down plays.
— Bucs won last four road games, scoring 37.0 ppg.

— Falcons lost four of their last five games.
— Atlanta lost six of its eight home games.
— Atlanta led seven of its last nine games at halftime.
— Falcons’ last five drives: 19 plays, 33 yards, 3 points.

Miami 22, Patriots 12:
— New England misses playoffs for first time since 2008.
— Last two Patriot games: no TD’s, five FG’s on 19 drives.
— New England lost five of its last seven visits to Miami.
— Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games.

— Dolphins won eight of their last ten games.
— Dolphins covered nine of their last ten games.
— Miami is 9-1-2 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Dolphins have 16 takeaways in last seven games (+9)

Seahawks 20, Washington 15:
— Seattle won four of its last five games overall.
— Seahawks take over first place in NFC West.
— Last five games, Seahawks outscored foes 71-21 in first half.
— Last six Seattle games stayed under the total.
— Seahawks won field position by ten yards.

— Backup QB Haskins was 38-55/295 passing; he is 3-9 as an NFL starter.
— Loss snaps Washington’s four-game win streak.
— Washington outscored last seven opponents 120-37 in second half.
— Washington converted 10-17 third down plays, outgained Seattle 353-302.

Bears 33, Minnesota 27
— Bears ran for 199 yards, scored seven of nine times they had ball.
— Last four games, Chicago scored 31.0 ppg.
— Bears won field position by 13 yards in this game.
— Bears won five of their last six games with Minnesota.

— Vikings split last four games, giving up 27 ppg.
— Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last four games.
— Vikings won field position in only one game so far this year (1-12-1)
— Minnesota is 1-6 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— Seven of eight Viking home games went over the total.

Baltimore 40, Jaguars 14
— Jaguars lost their last 13 games; they’re now in line for #1 pick in draft.
— Last four weeks, Jacksonville gave up 190 rushing yards/game.
— On first series, Jaguars picked off pass on 1-yard line, then gave up a safety on offense.
— Jacksonville in first half: 5 drives, 61 yards, outscored 2-0 by Ravens’ defense.

— Baltimore won last three games, scoring 34-47-40 points.
— On their first eight drives, Ravens scored 5 TD’s, tried 2 FG’s.
— Ravens lost field position in only one game this season.
— Over is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five games.

Arizona 33, Eagles 26:
— Eagles lost five of last six games; they’re 1-6 SU on road.
— Philly is 2-7-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-9-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Eagles trailed 16-0 after first quarter, would’ve led had they not failed on 2-point plays when it was 26-20/26-26.

— Cardinals drove 86 yards for game-winning TD with 7:17 left.
— Arizona has a one-game lead for the #7-seed (last playoff spot)
— Murray threw ball for 406 yards, three TD’s.
— Hopkins caught nine passes for 169 yards.

NJ Jets 23, Rams 20
— Jets scored TD on first drive of each half.
— Jets scored on first drive in their last eight games, best in NFL.
— Jets blocked punt in 2nd quarter, started drives on LA’s 27/22-yard line.
— Third down conversions: Jets 7-17, Rams 2-11.

— Rams fall out of first place in NFC West.
— LA’s first six series: 23 plays, 68 yards, zero points.
— Rams lost three of four games vs AFC East this year.
— LA had only two plays that gained 20+ yards.

Chiefs 32, New Orleans 29:
— Chiefs won their last nine games, are 0-5-1 ATS in last six.
— Kansas City won all eight of its road games this year (3-4-1 ATS)
— Chiefs outgained Saints 411-285; they had 34 first downs, Saints 15.
— Last six games, Kansas City allowed 26.3 ppg.

— New Orleans lost its last two games, both by 3 points.
— Saints ran only 52 plays; Chiefs ran 92 plays.
— Third down conversions: Chiefs 9-18, Saints 1-11.
— Saints scored only once on seven first half drives.

Dallas 41, 49ers 33:
— 49ers lost six of their last seven games SU.
— SF is 5-16 SU in last 21 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— Last seven games, SF was outscored 101-55 in first half.
— 49ers are 5-7 ATS in last 12 games as a favorite away from home.

— Dallas was outgained 458-291, but was +4 in turnovers.
— Cowboys won field position by 17 yards.
— Dallas was leading at halftime in five of last seven games.
— Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 21

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PIT at CIN 08:15 PM

CIN +14.5

U 40.5

[StarDust Bum]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/20/2020 9-13-0 40.91% -2650 Detail
12/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/14/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/13/2020 11-15-0 42.31% -2750 Detail
12/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


Totals..........40-44-1......47.61%....-42.00

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack
Interesting Week 16 NFL spreads:
— Cincinnati @ Houston (-9)
— Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)
— Chicago (-7.5) @ Jacksonville
— Carolina @ Washington (-2.5)
— NJ Giants @ Baltimore (-10)
— Atlanta @ Kansas City (-10.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 319,086
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“I think I’ve always said that it’s sort of the manifest destiny of the league that you expand at some point. I’d say it’s caused us to maybe dust off some of the analyses on the economic and competitive impacts of expansion. We’ve been putting a little bit more time into it than we were pre-pandemic. But certainly not to the point that expansion is on the front burner.”
NBA commissioner Adam Silver

Tuesday’s quiz
In the baseball movie For Love of the Game, where Kevin Costner is a pitcher for the Tigers, what veteran actor plays his catcher?

Monday’s quiz
2015 was the last time an NFL team made the playoffs with a losing record; Carolina Panthers won the NFC South, with a 7-8-1 record.

Sunday’s quiz
Florida State was the last football team other than Clemson to win the ACC title, in 2014.

**************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Its never fun to lose your job, but losing it four days before Christmas as to be especially bad; Carolina Panthers fired GM Marty Hurney Monday- the teams wants someone who is more analytical and data-driven to be their GM.

12) Detroit Lions fired special teams coach Brayden Coombs Monday; apparently he called a fake punt Sunday without consulting any of the other coaches. When you do that, the play damn well better work, but it did not, and now Coombs is unemployed.

Lions trailed 32-18 when they faked the punt; game ended with Tennessee winning 46-25.

Coombs is son of Ohio State defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs, who was the defensive backs coach for the Titans last year.

11) Kentucky Wildcats are 1-5 so far this basketball season, their worst start since 1927; the last time a team got an at-large bid to the NCAAs after starting a season 1-5 or worse was 1999, when the Texas Longhorns went 19-13 (13-3 in Big X) in Rick Barnes’ first year in Austin.

10) NHL will have a 56-game regular season, starting January 13.

NBA starts its regular season with two games Tuesday, a full slate of games Wednesday.

9) Was interesting to hear how some college teams have opted out of bowl games because their players just want to go home for the holidays. Kids have been in a routine since June/July where they have been tested for COVID three times a week, and isolated from their families.

8) Tennessee Vols’ senior QB Jarrett Guarantano will transfer away from Knoxville; he got benched in favor of younger guys recently. Guarantano winds up with 6,174 yards passing, 38 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in 41 games played for the Vols.

Guarantano has another year to play due to this year being a free year for all the players, it doesn’t count against their eligibility.

Speaking of Tennessee, they opted out of the Liberty Bowl because of COVID issues; Army takes their place and will play West Virginia in Memphis Saturday.

7) RIP to Hall of Fame linebacker Kevin Greene, who passed away Monday at age 58. Greene was a great player for the Steelers/Rams/Panthers. RIP, sir.

6) 9 of the 32 current NFL head coaches grew up in Pennsylvania, which seems like a lot.

5) Eagles coach Doug Pederson baffles me; he loves to go for two points when the Eagles score a TD, but trailing 16-0 in Arizona Sunday, Philly scores a TD and they kick the PAT instead of trying for a 2-point play that would’ve cut the lead in half. Go figure.

4) Anyone who tells you that Randy Moss was a better receiver than Jerry Rice is wrong, and this is coming from a Rams’ fan who has no love for anything 49er-related. Rice was the best wide receiver ever, and he did it quietly. Nothing wrong with that.

3) Washington is only NFL team this season that hasn’t scored a point on their first drive of a game, but with two weeks left in the season, they lead the NFC East.

2) Appalachian State 56, North Texas 28:
— App State ran ball for 502 yards (12.9 yards/carry)
— Cameron Peoples ran ball 22 times for 319 yards.
— Both teams had 100+ yards in penalties.
— App State won its last six bowls, scoring 31+ points in all five.
— North Texas lost last four bowls, giving up 49.0 ppg.

1) Cincinnati 27, Steelers 17:
— Steelers were 11-0 at one point; now they’re 11-3.
— Last four games, Steelers scored 17 ppg.
— Pittsburgh threw ball for only 78 yards.
— Steelers are now one game ahead of Cleveland in AFC North.

— Cincinnati gets its first win over Steelers in last dozen tries.
— Bengals had lost previous five games overall by combined 124-50.
— Total yardage was 244-230 Bengals.
— Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS this season as a home underdog.