The bum's 2020-2921 nfl news, trends, picks !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Cardinals (6-3) @ Seattle (6-3)
— Arizona scored 30+ points in last five games, winning four of them.
— Cardinals won three of four road games; this is their first road tilt since Week 6.
— Redbirds are 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 1-0 TY.
— Cardinals are running ball for 203.8 yards/game in last four games.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in six of its nine games.

— Seattle lost three of last four games, after a 5-0 start.
— Last week (one TD) was first time Seahawks didn’t score at least four TD’s in a game.
— Seattle is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this year.
— Seahawks scored 31+ points in seven of nine games; they scored 34-34-16 in losses.
— Seven of their nine games went over the total.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (1-7) their last two games.

— Arizona (+3.5) beat Seattle 37-34 in OT in Week 7, after trailing 27-17 at halftime; both teams had 500+ yards of total offense.
— Cardinals won four of last five visits here, with lone loss 27-24 two years ago.

Eagles (3-5-1) @ Cleveland (6-3)
— Philly is 1-4-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-5-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Underdogs covered seven of their nine games this season.
— Eagles are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Last four games, Philly allowed 156.5 rushing yards/game.
— Five of last seven Philly games stayed under the total.

— Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 32.8 ppg in wins
— Cleveland won four of five home games, losing to the Raiders.
— Browns scored 10 or fewer points in three of last four games.
— Cleveland is 5-4-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Last four games, Browns were outscored 47-23 in first half.

— Eagles won last five series games.
— Philly won last three visits here, last two 34-31OT/17-16.

Falcons (3-6) @ New Orleans (7-2)
— Falcons won three of last four games, after an 0-5 start.
— Atlanta scored 30.3 ppg in four games since the coaching change.
— Atlanta led six of its nine games at halftime.
— Falcon opponents converted only 15 of last 46 third down plays.
— Atlanta is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog, 3-1 TY.
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

— Brees has fractured ribs/lung issues; Winston/Hill will split QB duties.
— New Orleans won its last six games, by 6-3-3-3-35-14 points.
— Saints allowed 20.3 ppg in their wins, 34-37 points in losses.
— New Orleans won four of five home games, winning by 11-3-3-14 points.
— Saints are 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Seven of their nine games went over the total.

— Saints won four of last five series games.
— Teams split last six series games played here; all three Saints wins were by 10+.

Lions (4-5) @ Carolina (3-7)
— Detroit lost its last two games, giving up 41-34 points.
— Lions allowed 487-464 yards in their last two games.
— Detroit is +6 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in its losses.
— Lions are 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog.
— Detroit was outrushed 483-263 in its last three games.
— Last three Lion games went over the total.

— Carolina lost its last five games, giving up 30.8 ppg.
— Panthers lost four of their five home games SU this year.
— Carolina lost four five home games, allowing 29.8 ppg.
— Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a home underdog.
— Carolina is 0-7 when they allow 23+ points, 3-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Panthers allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in their last three games.

— Carolina won seven of nine series games.
— Lions lost four of five visits here, with win in 1999.

Patriots (4-5) @ Houston (2-7)
— New England won its last two games, running ball for 159-173 yards.
— Patriots lost three of four road games, with win 30-27 over the Jets.
— New England trailed at halftime in five of its last six games.
— NE turned ball over 14 times in first six games, once in last three games.
— Last 4+ years, Patriots are 21-13-1 ATS as a road favorite, 0-1 TY.
— Three of their last four road games went over the total.

— Texans lost three of last four games; both their wins TY are over Jacksonville.
— Texans lost three of four home games, with losses by 7-8-15 points.
— Houston are 0-6 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans’ last two games were decided by total of five points.
— Under is 4-2 in Houston’s last six games.
— Texans are 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.

— Patriots won 10 of 12 series games, but lost 28-22 to Houston LY.
— Average total in last four series games is 54.0
— Teams split last four meetings played here.

Steelers (9-0) @ Jacksonville (1-7)
— Steelers won first nine games (7-2 ATS), scoring 30.1 ppg.
— Pittsburgh is 4-0 on road; last three road wins were by 4-3-5 points.
— Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
— Steelers are +9 in turnovers this season.
— Pittsburgh is 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.
— In their last five games, Steelers won field position by 9+ yards four times.

— Jaguars lost last eight games, but covered last two.
— Jaguars’ last two losses were by total of six points.
— Jacksonville gave up 31.3 ppg in their last eight games.
— Jaguars are 7-6-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home dog, 2-3 TY.
— Jacksonville has allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in every game this year.
— AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-7-1 ATS.

— Pittsburgh won four of last six series games.
— Steelers won five of last six visits here, winning last three, by 5-8-4 points.

Packers (7-2) @ Indianapolis (6-3)
— Green Bay won/covered four of its five road games this year.
— Packers scored 30+ points in six of their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 53-110 third down plays (48.2%)
— Packers are 6-6-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Five of last six Green Bay games stayed under the total.
— Packers were outscored in second half of their last six games.

— Colts are 5-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won three of four home games, losing to Baltimore.
— Colts played last Thursday, so they’ve had a mini-bye since then.
— Indy is 11-7-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— AFC South teams are 8-15 ATS outside their division.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.

— Colts won three of last four series games, winning last two 30-27/31-26.
— Average total in last six series games: 61.2.
— Packers lost last four visits here, by 27-3-14-3 points.

Bengals (2-6-1) @ Washington (2-7)
— Bengals lost four of last five games, but covered three of last four.
— Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS overall this season.
— Bengals are 0-4-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4-26 points.
— Cincy is 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.
— Bengals led at halftime in four of their last five games.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.

— Washington lost its seven of last eight games, last two by 3-3 points.
— Smith threw for 715 yards the last two weeks; last week was his first start since he shattered his leg in 2018.
— Washington is 0-5 outside the division, losing by 15-14-15-20-3 points.
— Washington is 2-3 SU at home, losing by 14-20-3 points.
— Washington is 1-4 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.
— Under is 3-0-1 in last four Washington games.

— Cincinnati is 3-0-1 in last four series games.
— Last meeting ended in a 27-27 tie in London, four years ago.
— Bengals lost three of their five visits here, winning last one 38-31 in ’12.

Tennessee (6-3) @ Ravens (6-3)
— Tennessee allowed 31+ points in three of its last four games.
— Titans are 2-3 in their last five games, after a 4-0 start.
— Titans were outscored 78-48 in 2nd half of their last four games.
— This is Tennessee’s 2nd road game since September.
— Over is 5-2-1 in Titans’ last eight games.
— Titans are 7-6 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Baltimore lost two of last three games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28-23 in losses.
— Baltimore split its four home games SU this year.
— Under is 6-3 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 14-6-2 ATS outside their division.
— Ravens are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 2-2 TY.

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Titans won three of last four visits here, winning 28-12 in a playoff game here LY.

Cowboys (2-7) @ Minnesota (4-5)
— Cowboys were outscored 110-41 in losing last four games; AAF alum Gilbert makes his 2nd NFL start here- his first road start.
— Last eight games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 1-8 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points.
— Last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Cowboys are 0-5 SU on road, losing by 3-7-22-14 points.
— Dallas is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Vikings are 3-0 since their bye, running ball for 182.3 ypg.
— Minnesota covered six of its last seven games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20-13 in wins.
— Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, two in its wins (+5).
— Vikings are 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite (0-0 TY).
— Minnesota is 19-10-2 ATS in last 31 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.
— Vikings are 3-0 SU when they allow fewer than 27 points.

— Teams split last six series games.
— Cowboys lost five of last six visits to Minnesota, winning 17-15 in last one, in ’16.

Miami (6-3) @ Denver (3-6)
— Dolphins won/covered their last five games, scoring 31.6 ppg.
— Dolphins scored 20+ points in first half of four of those five games.
— Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in four of six wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
— Miami won three of four road games, losing season opener 21-11 in Foxboro.
— Dolphins are a road favorite for first time since Week 2 of 2017.
— In last three games, Miami has two defensive TD’s, a punt return for a TD and a blocked punt where they got the ball on the 1-yard line.

— Denver lost three of last four games, giving up 36 ppg.
— Broncos gave up 26+ points in seven of their last eight games.
— Denver lost three of four home games, losing by 2-18-27 points.
— Broncos are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog, 2-2 TY.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Denver turned ball over 11 times (-7) in their last four games.

— Miami is 10-3-1 in last 14 series games, but lost two of last three.
— Teams are 4-4-1 in games played here; Dolphins’ last visit was 2014.

Jets (0-9) @ LA Chargers (2-7)
— Winless Jets are 2-7 ATS, losing road games by 10-29-24-26 points.
— Jets are 0-4 ATS as a road underdog this year, losing by 10-19-24-26 points.
— Jets have been outscored 49-7 in 2nd half of their last four games.
— Flacco is expected to get another start in place of injured starter Darnold.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
— AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 7-8 ATS.

— Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-16 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Bolts lost seven of last eight games, with five losses by 5 or fewer points.
— Last six Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
— In last four games, LA scored 18 TD’s on 57 drives; the rookie QB is good.
— In their last six games, Chargers gave up 31.3 ppg.

— Chargers won last three series games by combined score of 72-24.
— Jets won four of last six visits to San Diego; last one was in 2014.

Chiefs (8-1) @ Las Vegas (6-3)
— Chiefs won their last four games, covering three of them.
— Kansas City won all four road games this year, covering three of them.
— Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— Chiefs covered five of last six post-bye games.
— Divisional home underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the NFL this year.

— Las Vegas won/covered four of their last five games overall.
— Raiders scored 31+ points in five of six wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
— Las Vegas split their four home games SU.
— Raiders converted 19 of their last 37 third down plays.
— Seven of nine Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders are 7-8-2 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.

— Raiders (+11.5) upset Chiefs 40-32 at Arrowhead in Week 5; the team buses took a victory lap around stadium on their way to the airport, stirring the pot somewhat.
— Chiefs won 10 of last 12 series games, four of last five in Oakland.

Rams (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (7-3)
— Rams split their last four games, after a 4-1 start.
— LA has outscored opponents 106-35 in second half of games.
— Rams lost three of five road games; this is their 5th game in eastern time zone this year.
— LA’s last six games stayed under the total.
— Under McVay, Rams are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog, 1-1 TY.
— Rams lost veteran LT Whitworth last week; big loss for OL.

— Tampa Bay won seven of its last nine games.
— Bucs are 3-1 SU at home, losing last home game to New Orleans.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 5-13-2 ATS as a home favorite, 1-1-1 TY.
— Last three games, Bucs were outscored 62-23 in first half.
— Tampa Bay is 7-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-3 when it scores less.

— Rams won five of last six series games, but got waxed 55-40 at home by Tampa LY, when Rams were 3-0 and a 9-point favorite.
— Rams won last three visits here, by 15-2-5 points.

[StarDust Bum]

Hot & Not Report - Week 11
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 11 Betting Angles

Suggesting to back the teams off a SU loss against those off a SU win probably couldn't have gone any worse in Week 10. Only the earliest of bettors in the week got their with a win or maybe a push on the Arizona XP kneel down, and Jacksonville of all teams was the only winner of the entire bunch.

And there was never much of a sweat in that Jags game. But the L.A. Chargers, Cleveland, Denver, San Francisco, and Chicago failed to get there in the end, although it's not hard to argue that the 49ers and Bears were right there, and Cleveland, well we all know how that finished.

Fading the NFL team before a TNF appearance continues to work out rather well with the Seahawks going down and Arizona needing that final play to scratch out a SU win.

It might be time to shelve those pre-TNF fades for the rest of the year though, as theoretically you'd have to be willing to fade all six franchises playing on Thanksgiving next week, and the following week sees two of those six (Dallas and Baltimore) play on TNF again, but on a full week of rest.

Bringing it back for the final few TNF games of the year is always an option, but so much will be on the line in all likelihood then that expecting a team to “tank” when they aren't already expected to do so is tougher to trust then a TNF game in the middle of the year.

Hopefully we continue to find something that's usable as minor support for some, or even just a way to eliminate games of interest on the board. It's something that was discovered last week, but with all three applicable teams on bye week, it had to be shelved for another week. And it's got to do with everyone's favorite stat – points per game – and how following the conventional wisdom of backing strong recent form and fading poor recent form hasn't exactly worked.

Points per game can be a helpful number to look at, but when you sort them by best and worst over each team's last three weeks you come up with some interesting results since the start of Week 6.

Who's Hot and Not

Since the start of Week 6, the NFL team with the most points per game over their past three games are 0-4 ATS that week

Since the start of Week 6, the NFL team (not named NY Jets) with the fewest points per game over their past three games are 4-0 ATS (6-2 ATS overall including Jets results)

Let's start with unwrapping that angle first.

Points per game is a readily available number for every team and can often be sorted by home/away, certain situations (vs division etc), but the ones that can be sorted by week/date is where this comes in. Obviously keeping a running tally works too, but sorting those Points per game numbers get sorted by the last three games on a date after Week 5 and prior to Week 6 is all that effectively means.

For example, going into Week 6's action (Oct 14th-19th), the Cleveland Browns were running hot, averaging 38.3 points per game. Tops in the NFL over the past three games. What did Cleveland do in Week 6? Get blown out 38-7 by Pittsburgh.

The worst team in points per game that week? The New York Jets at 15/game, and right in front of them was Washington at 15.7/game. Washington got that backdoor cover against the Giants that week, while the Jets were blown out 24-0 in Miami.

There are the numbers for the start of this run, and since then we've had the following:

Most Points per Game (PPG) over their last three going into Week 7:
Tennessee at 38.3/game

Tennessee lost 27-24 as a -1 home favorite vs Pittsburgh

Fewest PPG over their last three going into Week 7:
NYJ at 12.7/game and Washington at 15.3/game

New York covered +9.5 at home vs Buffalo (18-10 loss)
Washington beat Dallas 25-3

Most PPG in last three going into Week 8:
Tennessee at 36/game

Tennessee lost 31-20 as -7 road favorites vs Cincinnati

Fewest PPG in last three going into Week 8:
NYJ at 6.7/game and New England at 9.3/game

New York lost 35-9 at +20 vs KC
New England covered +4 in a 24-21 loss to Buffalo

Most PPG in last three going into Week 9:
Tampa Bay at 36/game

Tampa Bay lost 38-3 as home favorites to New Orleans on SNF

Fewest PPG in last three going into Week 9:
NYJ at 6.3/game and Dallas at 7.3/game

New York lost 30-27 on MNF vs New England, covering +9.5
Dallas covered +14 vs Pittsburgh

Most PPG in last three going into Week 10:
Kansas City at 37/game

Fewest PPG in last three going into Week 10:
Dallas at 10.3/game and NYJ at 15.3/game

Who could you follow in Week 11?

Las Vegas
N.Y. Jets
Dallas

Which brings us to this Week 11 as those numbers haven't changed with Kansas City, Dallas, and the New York Jets all coming off their bye weeks. But the suggestions of fading KC and playing on Dallas and the New York Jets are highly intriguing no matter how you look at it.

Let's start with fading the Chiefs, who get another crack at the Raiders after Las Vegas upset them 40-32 as +11 road dogs about a month ago. Revenge angles and battle for first place narratives all want nothing to do with fading KC in this game, and it is tough to step in front of a team that are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

But the number has dipped from an open of -7 on KC to -6.5 for the Chiefs now, and it's not like oddsmakers don't understand the revenge approach will be one many will lean on.

At some level it's taken into account, at least as much as it can be. So early Raiders support is out there and wouldn't it be something if the Raiders swept the season series against the defending champs, go to the playoffs and still finish behind that same Chiefs team. Crazier things have happened in this league.

Which leads into the Jets/Chargers game quite nicely since the winless Jets are getting more than a TD against a Chargers team that has a PhD in how to lose close games. Trusting the Chargers is agonizing tough for any bettor, let alone trusting them to win by a margin.

The fact that the discussion about this game in Survivor pools lingers around nobody can really handle putting their Survivor pool on the line with the Chargers makes me really like this Jets side initially. What other -7 or greater favorite against the Jets has anyone even considered that for this year?

But it would be full Chargers to just go out and comfortably win a game they are expected to win comfortably. Quarterback Justin Herbert looks like the real deal, and a 2-7 SU record should really be a hell of a lot better than it is. Eventually those results are too soul crushing to care much anymore about the rest of the year. Have the Chargers hit that stage?

Tough to imagine an extra week of prep time being bad for a team, but who knows what kind of hair-brained ideas the Jets staff could have concocted with all that extra time. But a winless team off a bye is already a spot where I'll lean towards taking the points as it is. Even if it does mean holding a tickets on the Jets – they have been 2-2 ATS in this run.

Which leaves Dallas and the +8 or so points they are currently getting at Minnesota. This starts a three-game homestand for the Vikings, all against teams they will be expected to beat – Dallas, Carolina, and Jacksonville. If the Vikings take care of business in those games it will be quite the turnaround for this team, and one I personally would have no problem seeing.

But I also see the potential for this to be a very bad spot for the Vikings as well this week, given that it may be the start of a homestand, but it's also coming off of three straight division games that were all wins for Minnesota. Hard not to have some sort of deep exhale after a stretch like that to effectively save their season, and now that the Vikings are the ones getting all the pats on the back, facing a bad team they are expected to beat up on isn't the most favorable betting scenario.

It means there is upside in Dallas as well this week, and if QB Andy Dalton and whatever he's got left is back ready to go, maybe this Cowboys team is a good team to buy on the cheap as well.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Nov. 19 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 19

ARIZONA at SEATTLE
Rematch of Arizona's 40-34 OT win, a rare home win in the series.
Arizona has covered the spread in five straight games when playing in Seattle.
Road team is 9-2-1 over last 12 meetings.
Kliff Kingsbury is 9-2-1 vs. spread when playing on the road since last year.
Seattle has gone OVER in seven of its last 10 games

Tech Edge: Cardinals and slight to OVER based on series and point total trends.


Sunday, Nov. 22

PHILADELPHIA at CLEVELAND
Eagles only 6-11 on board.
Browns lost four straight vs the line this year, and 3-9 over last 12 vs the spread since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Eagles based on team trends.

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta has won three of its last four games.
Atlanta has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
New Orleans is 2-3 vs the spread when playing at home this year.
New Orleans is 3-7 over its last 10 games vs the line when playing at home.
New Orleans has gone OVER the point total in nine of its last 11 games.

Tech Edge: Falcons and OVER based on team and point total trends.

DETROIT at CAROLINA
Matt Rhule is 1-4 vs the line when playing at home this year, Carolina is 1-7-1 in last eight vs line when playing at home.
Rhule is 0-2 vs the line when favored at home this year, Carolina is 0-4 as chalk dating to mid 2019.
Lions are 3-2 vs the line when playing on the road this year (0-3 at home).
Detroit has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last 12 games since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Lions and OVER based on team and point total trends

NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON
Bill Belichick vs Romeo Crennel, one of Belichick's first 'disciples' to go out on his own and become a head coach.
Heading into last Sunday vs Ravens, Belichick is 1-4 vs the line this year but if getting points note a 14-5 mark since 2010 (1-2 this year, but close to 3-0).
Houston is 2-7 vs the line this year, and 2-8-1 vs spread over its last 11 games

Tech Edge: Patriots based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE
Pittsburgh has won nine straight games this year.
Pittsburgh is 7-2 vs the lne this year (tempted to throw out 2019 results with no Ben Roethlisberger almost all season).
Piittsburgh has gone OVER the point total in six of its last eight games this year
Jacksonville has covered the spread in two straight games, but just 6-11 over last 17 games vs the line since mid 2019 (3-5 this year).
Jacksonville has gone OVER the point total in 13 of its last 22 games.

Tech Edge: Steelers and OVER based on team and point total trends.

GREEN BAY at INDIANAPOLIS
Green Bay is 6-3 vs the line this year.
Green Bay has gone OVER the point total in seven of its last 11 games since late 2019.
If gettiing points, Colts are rarely a home underdog (1-0 since 2018).
Upon a time in the 60s, this was one of the rivlaries in the NFC.

Tech Edge: Slight to Packers and OVER based on team and poiint total trends.

CINCINNATI at WASHINGTON
Cincinnati has gone OVER the point total in 10 of its last 13 games since late last year.
Washington has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games

Tech Edge: Bengals based on recent team trends.

TENNESSEE at BALTIMORE
Tennessee is 0-3 vs the line when playing on the road this year (but back to scene of crime in playoffs lat January when they won in Baltimore).
Tennessee has gone OVER the point total in 17 of its last 22 games since Ryan Tannnehill took over at quarterback (though playoff game was UNDER).
Tennessee has won 15 of its last 22 games since Tannehill took over at quarterback.
Baltimore is 4-4 vs the line in its last eight home games.

Tech Edge: OVER and slight to Titans based on point total and team trends.

DALLAS at MINNESOTA
Dallas is 0-4 vs the line when playing on the road this year.
Dallas is 0-6 vs the spread when playing on the road snce late 2019.
Dallas is 1-8 overall vs the points this year.
Dallas has gone UNDER the point total in four straight games this year.
After Monday night, Minnesota has covered the spread in six of its last seven games
Minnesota has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games

Tech Edge: Vikings based on recent team trends.

KANSAS CITY at LAS VEGAS
Revenge for Kansas City after a 40-32 home less on Oct. 11.
Kansas City is 7-1 vs the line in last eight road games
Kansas City is 4-4 vs number over last eight games as the series vistor after previous domination in role.
Andy Reid is 15-3 vs number over last 18 games since mid 2019.
Las Vegas is 2-2 vs the line at Allegiant Stadium.
Las Vegas has gone OVER the point total iin six of its last nine games this year

Tech Edge: Chiefs based on extended trends.

MIAMI at DENVER
Miami has covered the spread in 16 of its last 21 games since early 2019.
Miami has covered the spread in five straight games, and seven of its last eight this year.
If underdog, note Denver is 11-7 in role (11-4 if taking out Kansas City).
Denver has gone OVER the point total in three of its last four and four of its last six games this year.

Tech Edge: Dolphins and OVER based on team and point total trends .

N.Y. JETS at L.A. CHARGERS
New York has covered the spread in two of its last three games after failing to cover its first six games.
Chargers are 1-7-1 over last nine games when favorites, and 2-10-1 over last 13 in the role.
Chargers have gone OVER the point total in six straight games this year.
New York has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last five games this year.

Tech Edge: Jets and OVER based on team and point total trends.


Monday, Nov. 13

L.A. RAMS at TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles has failed to cover the spread in two straight road games after covering nine of 11 on road prior.
Los Angeles lost to Bruce Arians 55-40 at home last year.
Tampa Bay has gone OVER the point total in six of its last 10 games this year, and 18 of its last 26 since last year.
Arians has gone OVER the point total in 33 of his last 49 games since mid 2016 with Arizona.

Tech Edge: OVER based on point total trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals vs. Seahawks Week 11 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

The funny thing about streaks in betting, is that if I told you a football team was on a 7-0 against the spread run in a specific spot, plenty of bettors would be more inclined to make a play on that team. But if I told you a specific individual bettor that was on a 7-0 ATS run, the perspective would flip to looking to fade with losses likely coming.

Why is that?

Probably best to leave that question unanswered for now, as it's been a 7-0 ATS run for these prime-time plays I've been putting up, dating back to the Tampa/New York Giants game on MNF.

And yet I know there is going to be a loss or two coming soon, and with the great games we've got on tap for TNF, SNF, and MNF in Week 11, I'd take the 'no' on me sweeping a third straight week.

Probably something to keep in mind the next time you see so many streaks getting mentioned everywhere (congrats to QB Kirk Cousins for snapping that 0-9 streak on MNF by the way).

Week 11 begins with this Arizona-Seattle rematch, and both teams are coming off some interesting performances a week ago.

Arizona walked it off thanks to a wild Hail Mary play, while quarterback Russell Wilson has a game where his best Superman cape is in the wash and all that Seattle love from a month ago is just a distant memory right now.

In case you were sleeping in Week 10 of the NFL, the highlight "Murray Magic" currently stands as the top play of the 2020 regular season so far.

The Seahawks may be the team that “needs” this win more on Thursday night with how they've looked the past two weeks, but nothing has really changed with this team.

They've got a defense that's in rough shape, and an offense that still converts far too few 3rd downs (39% ranked 26th in NFL) that's run by one of the MVP front-runners. Wilson has an off day and all those flaws get magnified like they did vs the Rams last week.

Can they correct them on a short week against a division rival they know they probably should have beat in the first meeting, and one that's riding high off such an improbable win.

Betting Resources

Week 11 Matchup: NFC West
Venue: CenturyLink Field
Location: Seattle, Washington
Date: Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network

The Cardinals outlasted the Seahawks, 37-34 in overtime back in Week 7. (AP)

Cardinals-Seahawks Betting Odds

Spread: Seattle -3
Money-Line: Seattle -170, Arizona +150
Total: 57.5

2020 Betting Stats

Arizona

Overall: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Road: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 0-4 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 7)
Defense PPG: 23.3 (Rank 9)
Offense YPG: 425.4 (Rank 1)
Defense YPG: 370.0 (Rank 18)

Seattle

Overall: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U
Home: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 32.2 (Rank 1)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 28)
Offense YPG: 405.9 (Rank 3)
Defense YPG: 448.3 (Rank 32)

Handicapping the Total

If you've read pieces I've done in the past on games that were division rematches, you'll know that looking at flipping the results on both the side and total is a place I'll often start. Looking at taking the Seattle side will come a little further down, but in terms of the total, it appears as though the popularity of sharing that opinion is undecided.

Because of the combination of having a brutal defense and Russell Wilson as their QB, Seattle games are always going to get a lot of 'over' respect from the outset when a number comes out.

They've been hit hard to the 'over' early on in past weeks, and a 6-3 O/U record overall for the Seahawks is not ever going to be a deterrent from sticking to that plan.

Thanks to the walk-off win vs Buffalo, Arizona extended their streak of scoring at least 30 points to five straight games, the last three of which have cashed 'over' tickets. The Cardinals scored a TD in every quarter of that first meeting with Seattle, so thinking they'll be able to possibly do the same this time around isn't far fetched at all.

But then you get a total of 57.5 (currently) where a lot of things still have to go right for significant stretches of time for NFL teams. Yes, the first game finished with 71 points, but both defenses were able to make significant adjustments coming out of halftime, with only total points scored in the 3rd and 4th quarters; 10 of which came by Arizona in the final 2.5 minutes.

If that's the type of game we see from them in this rematch – one where it's going to feel like a bit more is at stake within the division etc – you might not get an explosive 30 minute stretch to make up for the points you'd need if a 24-point half was duplicated.

The short week of prep isn't as big of a negative as it can be for other teams on TNF here because both sides have the same season self-scouting film they can use to breakdown and recall since it was just a few weeks ago. What worked and what didn't should click back into place for both teams relatively quickly on Thursday, as these defenses look much better than they have the past two weeks.

It's an 'under' or nothing for the total in the end.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 25, 2020 - Arizona 37 vs. Seattle 34, Cardinals +3.5, Over 55.5
Dec. 22, 2019 - Arizona 27 at Seattle 13, Cardinals +8, Under 51
Sep. 29, 2019 - Seattle 27 at Arizona 10, Seahawks -5.5, Under 49
Dec. 30, 2018 - Seattle 27 vs. Arizona 24, Cardinals +14, Over 39.5

Handicapping the Side

Flipping the result from the first meeting and backing Seattle here is an interesting proposition. The point spread has already dropped multiple points against the Seahawks since opening, and how sour the market has gone on Wilson these past two weeks does give the sense that Seattle's in a bit of a buy low spot here.

Then on the Arizona side of things, it's always tough to come down from such a high like they had in that Buffalo win and flip the composure back a few days later for another very tough, division, opponent. There are a lot of things working in Seattle's favor situationally.

But then you remember the defense they trot out there, and you think about the notion that if Wilson struggles again this week, a Seattle ATS play has no shot, where an 'under' play in a Seattle loss still does. Far from a ringing endorsement for either side really, and not the greatest way to approach any play, but it's a thought I can't get out of my head when considering backing Seattle.

It would be Seattle or nothing for me though on the side, but maybe now that it's settled in the -3 range, a more reasonable ML price on Seattle is now out there for bettors. You never know with traditional scoring lines these days with XP's missed and two-point conversions gone for and Arizona backers on the closing number last week know all about that.

Do have a tough time seeing Arizona being anywhere near their best on a short week with travel, having already proved they could beat this Seahawks team, and being off how that Buffalo win played out. But in case it's another rough outing for Wilson and that Seahawks offense, I'd prefer to take my chances with the total.

Key Injuries

Arizona

TE Darrell Daniels: Ankle - Questionable
S Deionte Thompson: Knee - Questionable
DE Jordan Phillips: Foot - Questionable
OL Justin Murray: Hand - Questionable
DT Leki Fotu: Ankle - Questionable

Seattle

RB Carlos Hyde: Hamstring - Probable
WR Tyler Lockett: Knee - Questionable
G Mike Iupati: Leg - Questionable
G Jordan Simmons: Calf - Questionable
C Kyle Fuller: Ankle - Questionable
RB Travis Homer: Hand - Questionable
CB Neiko Thorpe: Groin - Questionable
DE Benson Mayowa: Ankle - Questionable
RB Chris Carson: Foot - Questionable
CB Shaquill Griffin: Concussion - Questionable
C Ethan Pocic: Concussion - Questionable
DT Bryan Mone: Ankle - Questionable
CB Quinton Dunbar: Knee - Out

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS
Over-Under: 5-4

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ARI at SEA 08:20 PM

SEA -3.0

O 56.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/16/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/15/2020 12-11-0 52.17% -50 Detail
11/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........35-43-1.....44.87%.....61.500

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 11
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Green Bay at Indianapolis

-- The Packers are 11-0 ATS (7.32 ppg) since Sep 16, 2018 off a game as a favorite where they failed to cover.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Tennessee

-- The Titans are 0-12 ATS (-8.54 ppg) since Dec 21, 2003 on the road coming off a home game where they gained at least 22 first downs.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Detroit at Carolina

-- The Panthers are 0-7 ATS (-11.93 ppg) coming off a home game where DJ Moore had at least 75 receiving yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at New Orleans

-- The Saints are 10-0 OU (11.20 ppg) since Oct 18, 2009 as a favorite of more than three points coming off a win where they gained at least 18 first downs.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

-- The Steelers are 0-19-1 OU (-7.80 ppg) since Sep 16, 2013 on the road coming off a home game when facing a team below .500.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Indianapolis at Green Bay

-- The Packers are 11-0 OU (6.50 ppg) since Jan 18, 2015 as a dog when they allowed less than 200 passing yards last game.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Udog]

[Udog]

Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 11 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

The Sunday Night Football game this week has a lot of people excited for its prospects, as it's an AFC West rematch between the Chiefs and Raiders, with Kansas City looking to avenge there only loss of the year.

The 42-30 home loss for the Chiefs came after consecutive MNF games (virus related), and while you can never overlook a division rival, the fact that this game came after convincing wins against Baltimore (prospective KC rival in the big picture) and the Patriots (former/current KC rival based on the past few years), that spot was a rough one for the Chiefs looking back at it.

And when you install them as -11 point home favorites as they were, chances are the players got a little complacent – they were undefeated, off two big wins, expected to win easily etc.

That first meeting was tied entering the 4th quarter though, but it was three straight scores (2 TD and 1 FG) by Las Vegas in that final 15 minutes that shifted the game in their favor, and KC just ran out of time for another one of their furious comebacks we've gotten used to seeing from them the past 12+ months.

With that result already behind us, you know that “revenge” will come up a lot this week for the Chiefs and the idea of backing them, and you can't discount that. There is no need to base any play solely on the revenge narrative though, as chances are you'll be missing other key bits of information along the way in being so stuck on the revenge idea.

Betting Resources

Week 11 Matchup: AFC West
Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

S Tyrann Mathieu and the Chiefs have been perfect on the road this season, going 4-0 as visitors. (AP)

Chiefs-Raiders Betting Odds

Spread: Chiefs -7
Money-Line: Kansas City -310, Las Vegas +255
Total: 56.5

2020 Betting Stats

Kansas City

Overall: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U
Road: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 31.8 (Rank 2)
Defense PPG: 20.3 (Rank 27)
Offense YPG: 409.0 (Rank 2)
Defense YPG: 354.1 (Rank 14)

Las Vegas

Overall: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 O/U
Home: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 28.3 (Rank 8)
Defense PPG: 26.8 (Rank 14)
Offense YPG: 370 (Rank 13)
Defense YPG: 377.6 (Rank 21)

Handicapping the Total

As someone who does prefer to lean on division rematch games to see their results on the side and total flipped from the first meeting, siding with the 'revenge' angle on playing Kansas City, and backing the 'under' would be the two plays that qualify in that thinking here. Thoughts on the side are coming, but in terms of this total, going 'under' would be completely contrarian, possibly too much for myself even.

All the numbers on both sides point to this being a game filled with points again, especially now that nearly the entire Raiders starting defense has gone without substantial practice time this week. KC has scored 33+ points in each of their last three contests overall, and have only finished with sub-30 point totals in three of their nine games this season.

Mahomes and company had no problem putting up points – even in a below average game for the Chiefs – against the Raiders in the first meeting, and I'm not going to let the fact that Las Vegas allowed 6 points to Cleveland in tornado-like conditions, and the 12 points allowed to Denver last week to sway the thought of KC's ability to move the ball.

The Chiefs will score here, and while you know the oddsmakers are going to be looking for an 'under' to cash, it's just not something I can comfortably pull the trigger on.

However, I'm not exactly too keen on playing an 'over' in a prime time game you know the whole betting world will be on, especially after missing the best of the number much earlier in the week when it opened in the 55.5 range.

All of those factors are things I believe are detrimental to one's bankroll long term if they get completely ignored, as the old betting idea of “when something looks too good/easy to be true, it usually is” percolating through my head.

This is still the third straight division game for the Raiders, and we just saw the Minnesota Vikings in that same role last Monday night against Chicago. That 19-13 Vikings win never came close to threatening the 'over' at all.

The SNF crew haven't seen an 'over' connect since the Week 7 game between Seattle and Arizona (nearly a month), and that's been the only 'over' to connect in this high profile SNF time slot since the start of Week 4.

A return match between the Chiefs and Raiders certainly has all the right ingredients there to snap that long wrong of 'unders' on SNF, but this is a total I'll be staying on the sidelines with ultimately. I do believe that teasing the total - both ways – could end up being the best way to play this game, as landing right around this number is highly possible.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 11, 2019 - Las Vegas 40 vs. Kansas City 32, Raiders +10.5, Over 54.5
Dec. 1, 2019 - Kansas City 40 vs. Las Vegas 9, Chiefs -11, Under 49.5
Sept. 15, 2019 - Kansas City 28 vs. Las Vegas 10, Chiefs -6.5, Under 53
Dec. 30, 2018 - Kansas City 35 vs. Las Vegas 3, Chiefs -14, Under 53.5
Dec. 2, 2018 - Kansas City 40 vs. Las Vegas 33, Raiders +13.5, Over 53.5

Handicapping the Side

The Raiders got some early week love when the original opener of KC -7 got bet down to -6.5, but then the virus news hit the Raiders mid-week and it forced a shift in the markets. The number came off the board for awhile, and has since settled on it's current range, a point higher than that full TD opener at the beginning of the week.

That lack of practice time is the big loss here regardless of what names on that Raiders defense are out there on the field, but having already played this opponent once this year does mitigate at least some of that negative aspect.

Yet, the Kansas City Chiefs are not just your typical ho-hum division rival that finishes .500 every year, they are the defending Super Bowl champs with a QB that's established himself as arguably the best in the game right now.

Not being together for walkthroughs and game plan implementation is going to make this week a severe challenge for this Raiders defense – another reason I'm avoiding the total.

From KC's perspective, I'm sure there will be some mention of a possible lookahead to a Super Bowl preview with the Chiefs visiting old pal Tom Brady down in Tampa Bay next week, but I'm not buying any of that this week.

Usually I'm a guy all for potential lookaheads, but to consider it for a non-conference game and hindering said team in a division game – against their only competition in the division like the Raiders are for KC – doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

The revenge narrative is always going to be popular here, and knowing that, I've still got very little issue in siding with the Chiefs for that reason, among many. I believe they are the far better team here and simply got caught in a lackluster spot in that first meeting.

A KC win here would put them three games clear of the Raiders for the division crown, and when you boil down the six wins Las Vegas has gotten this year, they really have been the beneficiary of some great situational spots in some of them.

I've already argued that they caught KC in a bad spot off two straight MNF games, but they also beat New Orleans – another win Raiders fans will point to for legitimacy – in the home opener for Vegas. Far from a typical home opener I know, but those are always good situations for the home side.

The other four wins Vegas has this year have come against Carolina, Denver, the Chargers (where they nearly coughed it up to LAC), and Cleveland in that tornado-like game. That list is far from a who's who in terms of crafting a strong legitimacy case for the Raiders this year.

You can only beat who's in front of you though, and you can't take everything away from those wins over New Orleans and KC, but with how the week has gone for Las Vegas, I've got a feeling they are walking into a disaster on SNF.

I know that I outlined this scenario earlier in the week that suggests going against KC here, but with the way the Raiders week has gone since then, KC looks like the better play with each passing day.

KC is still on a 14-3-1 ATS run dating back almost exactly a full calendar year (Nov 18th game vs LAC in Week 11 last year), and they've not lost two straight against the spread in that span. They keep that run going this week.

Key Injuries

Kansas City

WR Sammy Watkins: Questionable
CB Antonio Hamilton: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Mike Remmers: Ribs - Questionable
CB Rashad Fenton: Ankle - Questionable
DE Taco Charlton: Leg - Out

Las Vegas

OT Kolton Miller: Questionable
DT Maurice Hurst : Questionable
RB Jalen Richard: Chest - Questionable

2020 Sunday Night Football (SNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS
Over-Under: 3-7

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 22

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at NO 01:00 PM
ATL +3.5
O 49.5

PHI at CLE 01:00 PM
CLE -2.5
U 45.5

PIT at JAC 01:00 PM
PIT -10.5

CIN at WAS 01:00 PM
CIN +2.0
U 47.5

TEN at BAL 01:00 PM
TEN +6.0
U 50.5

NE at HOU 01:00 PM
HOU +2.5
O 49.0

DET at CAR 01:00 PM
DET -3.0
U 47.0

NYJ at LAC 04:05 PM
NYJ +10.0
O 47.5

MIA at DEN 04:05 PM
MIA -3.5
U 46.0

GB at IND 04:25 PM
IND -2.0
O 51.5

DAL at MIN 04:25 PM
MIN -7.5
O 49.5

KC at LV 08:20 PM
LV +7.5
O 56.0

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/22/2020 15-8-0 65.22% +3100 Detail
11/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/16/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/15/2020 12-11-0 52.17% -50 Detail
11/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........50-51-1.....49.50%....-31.50

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack
Odds to win the college basketball national title in April:
11-1— Gonzaga
16-1— Villanova
19-1— Duke
21-1— Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky, Virginia
26-1— Tennessee, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Wisconsin
32-1— Creighton, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 256,741
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Tweet of the Day
“If the standard to play was zero positive tests, then we would have never had a season. This game was not canceled because of COVID. COVID was just an excuse to cancel the game. To be honest with you, I don’t think it has anything to do with their players. I have no doubt that their players wanted to play and would have played. Same with the coaches. To me, the Florida State administration forfeited the game.”
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney

Monday’s quiz
Which two NFL teams always host games on Thanksgiving Day?

Sunday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011-14.

Saturday’s quiz
Sean Payton was a replacement player for the Bears during the 1987 players’ strike.

*************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Indianapolis 34, Packers 31 OT
— Green Bay in first half: 31 plays, 251 yards, 28 points.
— Packers in 2nd half/OT: 27 plays, 146 yards, 3 points.
— Packers were outscored in second half in each of their last seven games.
— Green Bay converted 57-119 third down plays (47.9%)
— In his career, Aaron Rodgers is 2-8-1 SU in overtime games.

— Last two games, Colts outscored foes 41-3 in 2nd half/OT.
— Colts are 6-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won four of its five home games.
— Colts were called for nine holding penalties in this game.
— Indy is 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 3-1 TY.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.

Cowboys 31, Minnesota 28
— Cowboys won field position by 14 yards; only one of their 4 TD drives was longer than 61 yards.
— Dallas ran ball for 180 yards; Elliott had 103 of those.
— Dallas is 3-8 ATS this year; their three wins are by a total of 7 points.
— Cowboys get their first road win in five tries.

— Vikings were down 16-7 at half, took 28-24 lead with 9:37 left to play.
— Dallas drove 61 yards to score game-winning TD with 1:37 left.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all six of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20-13 in wins.
— Minnesota ran ball for only 125 yards, threw for 314; they had been running ball much better of late.

Tennessee 30, Ravens 24 OT
— Henry ran ball for 133 yards, including a 29-yard walk-off TD in OT
— Tennessee outgained the Ravens 423-306.
— Titans won four of their last five visits to Baltimore.
— Tennessee’s last four drives: 36 plays, 297 yards, two TD’s, two FG’s.

— Ravens led 14-10 at half, kicked 29-yard FG with 0:15 left to force OT.
— Baltimore lost three of last four games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28-23-30 in losses.
— Ravens are 7-14 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY.

Cleveland 22, Eagles 17
— Philly fumbled ball away on Browns’ 5-yard line on their first drive.
— Eagles converted only 2-12 third down plays.
— Philly is 1-5-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-6-1 if they allow more than 21.

— Chubb ran for 114 yards on a rainy day by Lake Erie.
— Browns led 7-0 at the half; only score was a defensive TD.
— Cleveland won five of their six home games.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.

New Orleans 24, Falcons 9
— Falcons lost five of last six series games.
— Atlanta was outgained 378-248; Falcons ran ball for only 52 yards.
— Five of Falcons’ last seven games stayed under the total.
— Atlanta kicked FG’s on 3 of first 5 drives, didn’t score again.

— Saints ran for 168 yards, averaged 8.1 yards/pass attempt.
— QB Hill threw for 233 yards, ran for 51 more in his first NFL start.
— New Orleans won its last seven games, last three by 35-14-15 points.
— Last three games, Saints allowed 25 points (1 TD on 32 drives).

Carolina 20, Lions 0
— Detroit lost its last three games, giving up 31.7 ppg.
— Lions were outgained 374-185, ran ball 17 times for only 40 times.
— Detroit was outrushed 601-303 in its last four games.
— Lions got inside the Carolina 40 on only one drive.

— Backup QB Walker was 24-34/258; he threw two INT’s in red zone.
— Carolina broke a 5-game losing skid with this win.
— Panthers held Detroit to only 3.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Carolina is 0-7 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.

Houston 27, Patriots 20
— New England loses in Houston for 2nd year in a row.
— Patriots lost four of their five road games, with win 30-27 over Jets.
— New England trailed at halftime in six of its last seven games.
— Newton threw for 365 yards; Patriots only got to red zone twice (10 points)

— Texans scored three TD’s on five first half drives, gaining 239 yards.
— Houston is 3-1 when they score 27+ points, 0-6 when they do not.
— Teams combined for 693 passing yards, 141 rushing yards.
— Under is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games.

Steelers 27, Jacksonville 3
— Steelers won first ten games (8-2 ATS), scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Pittsburgh outgained Jaguars 383-206, picked off four passes.
— Pittsburgh is +12 in turnovers this season.
— In their last six games, Steelers won field position by 9+ yards five times.

— Jacksonville drove 52 yards for FG on its first drive, never scored again.
— Jaguars lost their last nine games (3-6 ATS).
— Luton averaged threw four picks, averaged 3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Jacksonville gave up 30.8 ppg in their last nine games.

Washington 20, Bengals 9
— Bengals were up 9-7 when rookie QB Burrow tore his ACL.
— Backup QB Finley was 3-10/30 yards passing.
— Bengals are 0-5-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4-26-11 points.
— Cincy led at halftime in five of their last six games.

— NFC East standings:
3-6-1 Eagles
3-7 Dallas, New York, Washington
— Washington is 2-3 in last five games; losses were by 1-3-3 points.
— Under is 4-0-1 in last four Washington games.
— Alex Smith 17-25/166 passing; he gets his first win in two years, after shattering his leg and having 17 operations on it.

Denver 20, Miami 13
— Dolphins had their 5-game winning streak snapped.
— Miami replaced ineffective QB Tagovailoa with veteran Fitzpatrick in 4th quarter.
— Miami went 3/out on five of their first seven drives.
— Dolphins’ only TD was on a 22-yard drive after an INT.
— Dolphins were a road favorite for first time since Week 2 of 2017.

— Broncos outgained Miami 459-223; final score is misleading.
— Denver outrushed Miami 189-56; Gordon ran for 84 yards, two TD’s.
— Denver came up empty on two red zone drives in second half.
— Broncos are 10-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog, 3-2 TY.

LA Chargers 34, Jets 28
— Jets were down 31-13 with 1:00 left in 3rd quarter, had ball with chance to tie in last 1:00.
— Winless Jets are 3-7 ATS, losing road games by 10-29-24-26-8 points.
— Jets are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog this year.
— Jets covered three of last four games overall.

— 2nd week in row, Chargers had a punt blocked on their first drive.
— Chargers’ first TD was scored by their defense.
— This was only 2nd win for Bolts in their last nine games.
— Last seven Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 4-11 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.

Chiefs 35, Las Vegas 31
— Chiefs drove 75 yards in seven plays for the winning TD with 0:29 left.
— Kansas City had ball eight times in this game, scored five TD’s.
— Chiefs ran 73 plays, only nine of them on third down.
— Chiefs won their last five games, last two 33-31/35-31.
— Divisional home underdogs are 14-4 ATS in the NFL this year.

— Las Vegas covered five of their last six games overall.
— Las Vegas lost three of their five home games SU.
— Raiders converted 25 of their last 46 third down plays.
— Eight of ten Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders 2-11 SU in last 13 games against Kansas City.

[StarDust Bum]

Rams vs. Buccaneers Week 11 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

It's a quarterback rematch from Super Bowl LIII two years ago, as Jared Goff and the Rams hope for a different result against Tom Brady's new squad, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The 13-3 score in that Super Bowl was due in large part to the two pass rushes involved making life very difficult for Goff and Brady, and two years on with one new team involved, it appears as though that hasn't changed.

The Rams still have All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald and company causing chaos on each snap, and the numbers Tampa's defense has put up this year because of their front four pressure has been just as noteworthy.

Tampa Bay and the Rams are both fighting to stay where they currently are in the NFC playoff race though – currently 5th and 6th respectively – and who knows what kind of tie-breaking potential this head-to-head matchup could have for either side down the road.

Goff was 0-2 straight up against Brady when he was in New England (lost 26-10 in 2016), and both have been low-scoring games where the Rams offense didn't put up more than 10 points.

Rams fans are hoping that changes in a big way now that it's Tampa Bay's defense they are up against and not Pats head coach Bill Belichick and company, but with playoff implications and some great pass rushing skills on both sides, this very well could be another lower scoring game.

Is that how we should be betting it though?

Betting Resources

Week 11 Matchup: NFC
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, Florida
Date: Monday, Nov. 23, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Tampa Bay RB Ronald Jones is coming off a big week and he hopes to carry that momentum into MNF. (AP)

Rams-Buccaneers Betting Odds

Spread: Tampa Bay -4.5
Money-Line: Tampa Bay -220, L.A. Rams +190
Total: 48

2020 Betting Stats

L.A. Rams

Overall: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 2-7 O/U
Road: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 24 (Rank 18)
Defense PPG: 18.7 (Rank 31)
Offense YPG: 395.6 (Rank 7)
Defense YPG: 296.4 (Rank 2)

Tampa Bay

Overall: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U
Home: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 6)
Defense PPG: 22.6 (Rank 25)
Offense YPG: 368.5 (Rank 14)
Defense YPG: 300.3 (Rank 3)

Handicapping the Total

The Rams come into this game on a 0-6 O/U run overall, as they've grown comfortable finding more success in these low-scoring games.

LA is 4-2 SU in those contests and just aim to do what they do and do it well. It's far fewer formations with more plays run from each setup.

Defensively it creates chaos up front and lets the secondary lock down things at the back, and for the most part it's worked out well for LA of late. They held four of those six opponents to 16 points or less, three of which finished with 10 or less.

Tough not to start to lean to the 'under' with that run.

But at the same time, the three opponents they held to 10 or less were the Bears, Washington, and the Giants. All bottom-feeding offenses at the time (or still very much so).

Holding Seattle to 16 last week was mightily impressive, but Miami scored 28 on them, and San Francisco put 21 on them in a 24-16 win by the 49ers while they were still healthy.

Even going back further, their other three games this season were a 20-17 win over Dallas in the opener, a 37-19 win in Philadelphia, and a 35-32 loss in Buffalo in a game the Rams know they coughed up.

Outside of Seattle (a division rival), any opponent that's had a semi-alright offense has actually done fairly well against LA.

Brady and the Bucs would trail only Seattle in terms of being the best offenses the Rams have faced this season, and asking LA to put together two successive weeks of full lock down mode against offenses like that is a little bit much to ask these days no?

Tampa bounced back in a big way last week with a 46-23 win in Carolina after they were embarrassed on Sunday Night Football the week prior by New Orleans.

Expecting teams to be a scoring machine off a 40+ point effort is also a bit much to ask, especially when pressure up the middle – the thing the Rams are very good at – is what Brady hates and forces him to slide into multiple sacks each time.

But if expecting the Rams defense to show their past form against passable offenses, Brady and company should be able to manufacture their fair share of scoring drives here.

They put up 40 in beating the Raiders this year and the following week was that Monday Night Football game against the Giants that snuck 'over' the total late, so there is precedent for Tampa's offense staying functional enough to cash an 'over' ticket off a 40-point effort.

Tampa is also 3-1 O/U the last four times they've had a total anywhere in the 40's, and the lone 'under' was thanks to the Chicago Bears sharing the football field with one of these teams again.

I do lean towards Belichick and the scheme being the thing that frustrated Goff in those two previous meetings vs Brady, and Tampa's allowed at least 20 against in four straight weeks.

Their defense had their one standout game – like the Rams vs Seattle – when Tampa held Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay to 10 points in that win, but the following game was a road game in Vegas where 65 points were scored.

Awfully similar situation to what the Rams are in this week – on the road off their best defensive performance.

So give me the high side of this total as I'm still not sure either defense is all it's cracked up to be. The Rams may be on a 0-6 O/U run overall, but they were also the favorite in all of those games.

The last five times they've been an underdog they've gone 5-0 O/U, with that 35-32 loss in Buffalo being the last occurrence. In two games as an underdog this year, Rams games have averaged 61.5 points/game and we don't need anywhere near that for an 'over' ticket.

Tampa's defense gives up things to everyone, and L.A. may already know they'll have to play a bit faster when it is Brady and company on the other side.

Can only take the high side of this total.

Head-to-Head History

Sept. 29, 2019 - Tampa Bay 55 at Los Angeles 40, Buccaneers +9, Over 48.5
Sep. 25, 2016 - Los Angeles 37 vs. Tampa Bay 32, Rams +3.5, Over 40.5

Handicapping the Side

The spread is an interesting proposition as it's moved back and forth in the -3.5 to -4.5 range for Tampa as it's a matchup and spread that should see plenty of support for both sides.

When it becomes all about execution like it so often is with these two, it's who's going to make the bigger mistake(s). There are cases to be made for both sides in that debate and it makes this spread one that's far easier to pass on.

I do believe we see the better versions of both teams here as both have to consider it as a bit of a measuring stick game to begin with.

The Rams performed well in their last test – vs Seattle – while the Bucs did not – vs New Orleans – so maybe you give a slight lean to the home side, but that always leaves in-play as probably the more viable option now to try and get a better number than where it currently sits.

Could even go the ML route with Tampa should the Rams score first, or even find various spots during the game where you could possibly have both sides at plus-money ML prices.

Definitely no need to be in a hurry to bet this spread pre-game though.

Key Injuries

Rams

K Kai Forbath: Ankle - Out
S Taylor Rapp: Knee - Out
OT Andrew Whitworth: Knee - Out
C Brian Allen: Knee - Questionable

Tampa Bay

G Ali Marpet: Concussion - Questionable
RB T.J. Logan: Knee - Out

2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS
Over-Under: 4-6

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAR at TB 08:15 PM

TB -4.0

U 47.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/23/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/22/2020 15-8-0 65.22% +3100 Detail
11/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/16/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/15/2020 12-11-0 52.17% -50 Detail
11/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........50-53-1.....48.54%....-42.50