NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thur., Nov. 28 - Mon., Dec. 2)

[Udog]

NFL Week 14 opening odds and early action: 49ers draw support vs Saints
Patrick Everson

The NFL season rolls into its final month, with Week 14 featuring high-profile matchups in each conference. We check in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

New Orleans can move atop the entire NFC with a win in this clash of teams with the best record in the conference. The Saints (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) come off the mini-bye, having topped Atlanta 26-18 as 7-point road favorites on Thanksgiving Day.

San Francisco also sports a 10-2 SU mark (7-4-1 ATS), but is on the road for a second straight week against a second straight solid opponent. The 49ers gave Baltimore a good go Sunday, but fell short on a final-seconds field goal 20-17 as 5.5-point underdogs.

“We opened Saints -3.5 and are down to -3 (-120),” Murray said. “This is the best game of the week and a possible NFC Championship Game preview. Tough spot for the 49ers. They just had a war of a game in Baltimore and now have to go on the road again.”

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3)

Like San Francisco, New England went into Week 13 with one loss and exited with two, losing its claim to the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the process. The Patriots (10-1 SU, 7-4 SU) were 3-point favorites at Houston, but got going too late in a 28-22 loss.

Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City got a much-needed bye in Week 12 and came out rolling in Week 13. The Chiefs (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) pounded Oakland 40-9 as 11-point home favorites Sunday to take a two-game lead in the AFC West.

“We opened Patriots -3 and took it off the board when the Sunday night game kicked,” Murray said. “I expect it to come lower when it reopens (Monday morning). The Patriots are smoke and mirrors, 10-2 because of a great coach and a super easy schedule.”

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+6)

Baltimore is scorching hot, peeling off eight wins in a row, but its five-game spread-covering streak came to an end in a tough Week 13 matchup. The Ravens (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) needed a final-seconds field goal to edge San Francisco 20-17 laying 5.5 points at home.

By virtue of winning a tiebreaker with New England, John Harbaugh’s outfit is now the top seed in the AFC playoff race.

Buffalo continues to be one of the bigger surprises of this NFL season, on the field and for bettors, with marks of 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS. On Thanksgiving Day, the Bills went off as 6.5-point pups at Dallas and had little trouble in a 26-15 upset.

“We opened Ravens -6 and are now at -5.5,” Murray said. “The Bills have struggled to stop the run. The Ravens won’t have any problem going on the road in inclement weather.”

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)

Seattle is among the hottest teams in the league, winning four in a row and seven of eight, but still has Week 13 work to do, hosting Minnesota in the Monday night game. The Seahawks (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) topped Philadelphia 17-9 as 1-point Week 12 road favorites, their third straight cover.

Defending NFC champion Los Angeles has been wildly inconsistent as it tries to stay in the NFC playoff picture. The Rams (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) got housed at home by Baltimore 45-6 in Week 12, then went to Arizona as 2.5-point favorites and put the hammer down, 34-7.

“This will come off the board when the Monday night game kicks,” Murray said. “The Rams looked great today. Don’t be surprised if this drifts closer to pick if the Seahawks struggle with the Vikings.”

[Udog]

Vikings' WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) has been ruled OUT for Monday's game in Seattle against the Seahawks.

Pointspread: Seahawks -2.5
Total: 49.5

[Udog]

NFL Betting Stats as of Dec. 2nd, 2019:

Road Teams: 106-81-4 ATS
Home Teams: 81-106-4 ATS

Favorites: 82-105-4 ATS
Underdogs: 105-82-4 ATS

Home Faves: 46-70-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 35-36 ATS

Road Faves: 36-35 ATS
Road Dogs: 70-46-4 ATS

O/U: 91-100

[StarDust Bum]

by: Josh Inglis


LORD OF THE VANCE

Los Angeles Rams TE Tyler Higbee hit the prop trifecta against the Arizona Cardinals and their league-worst tight end defense last week. Higbee hit the Over on both his receptions and yards while also hitting paydirt. If you have been playing TEs versus the Cardinals all year then you are probably doing your best Scrooge McDuck impersonation these days.

In the Cardinals' 12 games this year, TEs have hit the trifecta (receptions, yards and a TD) five times. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Tight ends have gone Over their reception totals in 10 games, Over in their receiving yards in nine games and have scored a touchdown in nine of 12 games. That smells like winning to me.

Pittsburgh TE Vance McDonald is next in line for the ride as the Steelers travel to Arizona. McDonald’s totals sit at 3.5 receptions and 33.5 yards. You know what to do, and don’t forget the TD for good measure.


TURDISKY TIME ON THURSDAY

TNF will bring us the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears. The Bears are winners of three of their last four thanks in part to playing QBs David Blough, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff and Jeff Driskel over that stretch.

Mitchell Trubisky and the offense have looked decent lately but are scoring just 16.7 points over their last three games — sixth-worst mark in the league. Home field isn’t much of an advantage either for Mitch and the boys as the Bears are 31st in points scored while converting just 25 percent of third downs at Soldier Field.

Dallas has a great defense on the road, giving up the fourth-fewest yards and allowing just 31 percent of third downs to be converted. Mitch is due for a turd as he hasn’t posted back-to-back QB ratings of over 100 this year. Hit the Under on the Bears’ team total of 19.5 (+100) or wait for it to go through the key number of 20 to 20.5.


SLICE AND DICE WITH GUICE

Since being drafted in the second round of the 2018 draft, Washington running back Derrius Guice has played just four games. Last week, the 22-year-old back topped 100 yards on just 10 carries against the worst DVOA rush defense. Expectations should be tempered as Guice faces a lot of competition for snaps as Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson saw 72 percent of the snaps while Guice saw 30.

This week the Redskins play against the Green Bay Packers who have a bottom-five rush defense sandwiched between 27th-ranked Cincinnati and 29th Miami. Not great company. Green Bay is also tied for the fourth-most rushing TDs allowed at home at 1.2 which might benefit Guice as the young back has received eight red-zone carries over the last three weeks while Peterson has seen just three.

Guice is a hot name this week so beware of his rushing total of 50.5 yards. The real worth could be on his anytime rushing TD which could fetch backers some good plus-money.


KING HENRY

Derrick Henry has started his assault on defenses a little earlier this year. In 2018, Henry averaged 146 yards rushing and 1.75 rushing TDs over the final four weeks while this year the ‘Bama back has 496 yards in his last three weeks. Henry has actually been quite consistent all year as the Titans’ RB has been held to under 70 yards rushing just twice since Week 4.

This week the Titans take on Oakland. The Raiders are coming off two weeks of football that saw them get outscored 74-12 and they might be waving the white flag at the worst possible time. Oakland hasn’t been giving up huge games to opposing backs, but it has allowed five rushing TDs in its last three and gave up 6.12 yards per carry over Weeks 10 and 11 combined.

With the Titans running the ball around 30 times a game, we could see another big game out of Tennessee's big back. We are doubling down on Henry and taking the Over 98.5 rushing yards and his anytime TD.


BUCS BAD BACKFIELD

Last week, we pushed Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones but he flopped. Jones missed a blitz pickup in the first quarter and was subsequently benched for a brief time. The starter watched teammate Peyton Barber take 17 carries for 44 yards and two scores in the Bucs’ 28-11 win over the Jaguars. We picked a bad week to play Jones’ TD prop.

This week, head coach Bruce Arians has said that Jones is still his starter for the Bucs game against the Colts, but we aren’t sure we believe him. Tampa only averages 3.7 yards per carry this year which is tied for seventh-worse while Jones is gaining just 3.56 yards per carry on his 11.6 touches per game.

Looking at this backfield's rushing totals, we see more value in Jones’ 44.5 than Barber’s 40.5 and will be taking the Under on the former as the Colts are allowing just 97 yards rushing in their last three games. Take Jones’ Under 44.5 rushing yards.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Cowboys at Bears
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

Both these teams played on Thanksgiving with mixed results. Starting with the Cowboys (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS), it was an embarrassing Turkey Day home loss to the upstart Bills in a 26-15 setback as 6 ½-point favorites. Dallas jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead on a Dak Prescott touchdown strike to tight end Jason Witten, but the Cowboys wouldn’t score again until four minutes remaining in regulation.

In between, the Bills ran off 26 consecutive points, as Dallas turned the ball over twice. Prescott ended the day with 355 yards passing, but it was the second time this season that the Dallas quarterback posted gaudy numbers in a home blowout loss (463 yards against Packers). Running back Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball only 12 times, tied for his fewest all season, but racked up 71 yards which came to an average of 5.9 yards an attempt.

The Bears (6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS) erased a 17-7 deficit at rival Detroit last Thursday to knock off the Lions, 24-20. Chicago closed as a 5 ½-point road favorite, marking its seventh ATS loss in the past eight games, but the Bears are back at .500 since owning a 3-3 record in Week 7. Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky put together his best game of the season by throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns, including the go-ahead score to David Montgomery with 2:17 remaining in regulation.

In spite of Chicago’s modest two-game winning streak, the Bears remain three games behind the Packers for the top spot in the NFC North and two games back of the Vikings for the second NFC Wild Card position. The 24 points scored at Detroit marked the most posted by the Bears since putting up 25 in a home loss to New Orleans back in Week 7. The defense allowed at least 20 points for the first time in four games, ending a five-game streak to the ‘over.’

YOU DON’T SCORE UNTIL YOU SCORE

The Cowboys’ formula for winning this season has been very simple. When Dallas scores 31 points or more, it has a perfect 6-0 mark. On the flip side, Jason Garrett’s squad has compiled an ugly 0-6 record when being held to 30 points or less. The last two weeks have been especially forgettable offensively as Dallas combined for only 24 points against a pair of solid defenses in New England and Buffalo. The last time the Cowboys won a game when scoring fewer than 30 points was their Wild Card victory over the Seahawks this past January, 24-22.

PROTECT THIS HOUSE

The Bears have played six games at Soldier Field this season and have allowed more than 17 points only once, which came in a Week 7 defeat at New Orleans when they yielded 36 points. Chicago has given up 10, 6, 17, 13, and 14 in the other five home contests, while opponents have posted more than 20 points only once in the past 10 games at Soldier Field, which includes the 16-15 playoff loss to Philadelphia. The ‘under’ has cashed in eight of the last 10 home contests for Chicago, as the Bears have scored at least 21 points only once in six home games in 2019.

DOGGIN’ IT

For only the third time this season, the Bears are listed in the underdog role. The first two times didn’t work out well for Chicago by losing at Philadelphia, 22-14 in Week 9 and dropping a 17-7 decision to the Rams in Week 11. The last time the Bears closed as an underdog at Soldier Field came last December in a 15-6 win over Los Angeles when they received three points. ‘Dogs have posted a solid 9-4 ATS record on Thursday night action this season, while only two home underdogs have won and covered on Thursdays (Jaguars – Week 3 and Raiders – Week 10).

SERIES HISTORY

These NFC squads last met in 2016 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington as the Cowboys took care of the Bears, 31-17 as 6 ½-point favorites. Dallas is making its first trip to the Windy City since 2014 (also a Thursday night game) when the Cowboys held off a furious Bears’ rally in a 41-28 victory as four-point favorites. The Cowboys built a commanding 35-7 lead before Chicago scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the final score look better.

TOTAL TALK

Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 44 and the number is listed at 42 ½ as of Wednesday evening.

Chris David offered up his thoughts on this week’s number.

He said, “This game could be looked at as a bit of a head-scratcher based on the total results for both clubs. The Cowboys have watched the ‘over’ go 7-5 this season and that includes a 4-2 mark on the road. Meanwhile, the Bears have been a great ‘under’ bet at 8-4 and only one of six games played at Soldier Field went ‘over’ this season and that outcome was helped with a big second-half scoring surge when the Saints visited back in Week 7.”

“Chicago is the perfect mold of an ‘under’ team, solid defense and inconsistent offense and that trend has been golden for bettors riding the low side -- especially at home too. The ‘under’ is on an 8-1 run in the last nine home games for the Bears and only one team scored more than 17 points, which came in the aforementioned effort against New Orleans (36-25).”

While those seasonal trends and tendencies could have many bettors placing ‘under’ wagers on Thursday, David points out a total angle that’s correlated to Dallas.

He explained, “The drama always follows Dallas in the NFL and this season is no different. After last week’s loss on Thanksgiving to Buffalo, it’s hard to have any confidence in the Cowboys but if you believe they’re going to right the ship then you would a better offensive effort. Dallas sits at 6-5 on the season and it has averaged 34.3 in the six wins and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in those games. If you go back even further, the Cowboys have scored 20-plus points in 16 of their last 17 wins. Bottom line, the Cowboys win when they score. The Dallas team total is hovering between 22 and 23 for Thursday and since I believe the ‘Boys rebound, my lean would be to the Cowboys Team Total Over.”

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in to figure out what has gone wrong with the Cowboys, “Dallas has out-gained 11 of 12 foes this season with the only deficit just -9 at New Orleans. Turnovers can’t account for all the problems at just -4 in turnover margin on the season though the Dallas defense has forced zero turnovers in the past four games for a -5 run in that 1-3 stretch. Chicago is +3 in turnovers on the season, but an offense with a rushing identity has been out-gained on the ground in seven of the past eight games even with a run defense that has allowed 97 yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry this season.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Dak Prescott (DAL)
Over 276 ½ (-110)
Under 276 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Dak Prescott (DAL)
Over 1 ½ (-120)
Under 1 ½ (Even)

Will Dak Prescott (DAL) throw an interception?
Yes -130
No +110

Total Rushing Yards – Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
Over 81 ½ (-110)
Under 81 ½ (-110)

Will Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) score a touchdown?
Yes -130
No +110

Total Completions – Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)
Over 22 ½ (-110)
Under 22 ½ (-110)

Total Rushing Yards – David Montgomery (CHI)
Over 55 ½ (-110)
Under 55 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Anthony Miller (CHI)
Over 53 ½ (-110)
Under 53 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

This line has stayed steady this week with the Cowboys as three-point road favorites. The total hasn’t seen much movement as it sits at 43 ½ at most books.