NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thur., Nov. 28 - Mon., Dec. 2)

[Udog]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Bears (-3, 39) at Lions – 12:30 PM EST

These two struggling NFC North squads kick off Week 13 at Ford Field and play on Thanksgiving for the second straight season. Chicago (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) won for the second time in three weeks after holding off the Giants at Soldier Field, 19-14 on Sunday. The Bears failed to cover as six-point favorites as New York scored a late touchdown to get within the number, but Chicago posted 16 third quarter points to erase a 7-3 halftime deficit.

The Bears won in spite of rushing for 65 yards on 26 carries and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky getting intercepted twice. Chicago dropped to 1-6 ATS the last seven games, but the only positive note for the Bears is they have allowed 17 points or less in three consecutive contests, while hitting the UNDER in five straight games. However, the Bears have not won a game away from Soldier Field since a Week 3 blowout of the Redskins, 31-15 as five-point favorites.

The Lions (3-7-1 SU, 4-7 ATS) remain at the bottom of the NFC North after losing their fourth consecutive game in Sunday’s 19-16 setback to the Redskins. Washington picked up only its second win of the season in spite of not scoring an offensive touchdown as the Lions held the Redskins to four field goals and a kickoff return for a score. However, quarterback Jeff Driskel was intercepted three times and Detroit managed to lose even though it rushed for 175 yards.

Detroit lost its fourth straight road game and slipped to 0-3 ATS this season when listed as a favorite. The last time the Lions covered a game came in the Week 6 Monday night setback at Green Bay, 23-22 as 3 ½-point underdogs, as Detroit is riding an 0-6 ATS stretch the previous six weeks. To makes matters worse, the last home cover came in a Week 4 loss to Kansas City, while the only home ATS win for Matt Patricia’s team in a victory occurred in Week 2 against the Chargers.

These division rivals hooked up at Soldier Field in Week 10 as Chicago held off Detroit, 20-13 to barely cash as six-point home favorites. The Lions announced the morning of the game that veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford would not start due to a back injury, opening the door for Driskel to make his sixth career start. Driskel threw for 269 yards and led Detroit to an early 6-0 lead, but Chicago scored the next 20 points to take control of the game.

Chicago has captured the last three meetings with Detroit since the start of last season, including a 23-16 road triumph on Thanksgiving in 2018 as three-point favorites. Trubisky missed that win due to injury as backup Chase Daniel tossed a pair of touchdowns and Chicago overcame 38 yards rushing for the win thanks to a late Eddie Jackson interception return for a score.

Bills at Cowboys (-6 ½, 45) – 4:30 PM EST

Not many people thought going into the season that Buffalo would own two more wins than Dallas heading into their interconference Thanksgiving matchup. But, that’s the case as the Bills (8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) are in a prime position to capture the top Wild Card spot in the AFC after cruising past the Broncos this past Sunday, 20-3. Buffalo easily cashed as 3 ½-point home favorites, while limiting the woeful Denver offense to nine first downs and 134 yards.

The Bills continue to dominate teams with losing records by improving to 7-2 against these struggling squads, although the only victory against a team with a winning record came at Tennessee in Week 5. Buffalo has excelled on the road this season by posting a 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS mark, while allowing 20 points or fewer in all five away contests. The Bills were blown out by the Eagles in Week 8, but Philadelphia is now considered one of those clubs in the losing record category at 5-6. In the only loss against a team with a winning mark, the Bills covered as seven-point home underdogs against the Patriots in a 16-10 setback in Week 4.

Dallas (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) owns the worst record of any division leader as the Cowboys still remain atop the NFC East despite falling short at New England on Sunday, 13-9. The Cowboys managed to cover as 5 ½-point road underdogs to move to 4-1 ATS the last five games. New England held Dallas to three field goals in awful weather at Gillette Stadium, while Cowboys’ quarterback Dak Prescott was limited to his lowest passing output of the season with 212 yards.

The Cowboys fell to 0-5 this season when scoring less than 30 points, while not beating a team that currently owns a winning record (Giants twice, Redskins, Dolphins, Eagles, Giants). Dallas went through an eight-year stretch from 2006 to 2013 posting a 7-1 record on Thanksgiving with the lone loss coming by three points to New Orleans in 2010. However, the Cowboys are 2-3 the last five on Turkey Day, but did knock off the Redskins last seasons, 31-23.

Dallas has lost five of its past seven matchups with AFC foes since 2018, while Buffalo is 3-1 in its previous four affairs with NFC opponents. The Bills defeated the Cowboys in their most recent meeting in 2015 in Buffalo, 16-6 as 6 ½-point favorites. The starting quarterback that day for Dallas was Kellen Moore, who is the team’s current offensive coordinator. Buffalo is making only its third appearance on Thanksgiving Day as the Bills try to improve on an 0-2 mark after losing in their last game back in 1994 at Detroit.

Saints (-7, 49) at Falcons – 8:20 PM EST

For the second time this month, New Orleans and Atlanta hook up as the Saints (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) seek revenge for an ugly 26-9 loss at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Falcons (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) closed as hefty 14-point road underdogs following their bye week (Saints were also off the bye) and were looking to snap a six-game skid. Atlanta did so with a dominating defensive effort as that side of the ball has let the Falcons down all season. The Falcons held the powerful Saints’ attack to 310 yards, while Matt Ryan threw two touchdown passes for Atlanta’s first victory since Week 2 against Philadelphia.

Atlanta’s two-game winning streak came to a crashing halt in last Sunday’s 35-22 home setback to Tampa Bay as 3 ½-point favorites. The Falcons’ defense has struggled all season, but it seemed like they were turning it around after allowing 12 points in road blowouts of the Saints and Panthers. However, Atlanta reverted back to its old ways by yielding 446 yards to a Tampa Bay team that had lost five of its previous six games.

The Saints’ offense topped the 31-point mark for the third time in four games since Drew Brees returned from his thumb injury as New Orleans edged Carolina last Sunday, 34-31. After the Panthers missed a go-ahead chip shot field goal, Brees drove the Saints down the field to set up the game-winning boot from Wil Lutz, but New Orleans failed to cash as 10-point favorites. Brees threw for 311 yards, while tossing three touchdowns for the third time in four games to build a commanding four-game edge over Carolina for first place in the NFC South.

New Orleans continues to have a seesaw effect on defense this season and if the trend stays true, expect another low-scoring output from the opposition. Since allowing 27 points to Seattle in Week 3, the Saints have given up 10, 24, 6, 25, 9, 26, 17, and 31 points, so there have not been consecutive rough defensive performances for Sean Payton’s team.

The Falcons slipped to 0-4 in their last four home games since knocking off the Eagles back in Week 2. In 2017 and 2018, Atlanta was not listed as a home underdog once; this season, Atlanta is received points at Mercedes-Benz Stadium three times and have gone 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in those contests. Since losing to the Rams in Week 2, the Saints have not dropped a game away from the Big Easy by posting a solid 4-0 SU/ATS record in the past four road contests.

These teams hooked up on Thanksgiving night last season in New Orleans as the Saints took care of the Falcons, 31-17 as 11 ½-point home favorites. Brees tossed four touchdown passes on only 15 completions for the Saints, who have lost two of the past three visits to Atlanta dating back to the 2016 season.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Thanksgiving
Joe Williams

It’s time to talk Thanksgiving totals, and we have an interesting trio of games on tap for your holiday viewing pleasure. Two of the three matchups are divisional matchups, as well as rematches, sandwiching a very intriguing AFC vs. NFC battle in the middle window. Through 58 divisional contests played in this year’s regular season, the ’under’ holds a 31-27. In the two earlier divisional matchups featuring Thursday’s combatants, the ‘under’ hit in both of the first installments.

Chicago at Detroit (FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET)

These teams met back in Week 10 at Soldier Field in Chicago with the Bears posting a 20-13 victory over Detroit. The under (38) never seemed to be threatened in that one despite the fact Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky actually looked like an effective passer in that game. He tossed a season-best three touchdowns passes, easily besting QB Jeff Driskel, who is still filling in for the injured QB Matthew Stafford (back). While Trubisky threw for just 193 yards, his three touchdowns and no interceptions was easily his best ratio in that department, and his 131.0 QB rating was a season high.

The Bears enter this matchup on a 5-0 under run, as the offense continues to look rather slow and methodical, while the defense does its job more often than not. In other words, Chicago Bears football in a nutshell. Since a 25-point outburst, if you can call it that, against the Saints in Week 7, which happened to come after two weeks of studying and a bye, the Bears have posted totals of 16, 14, 20, 7 and 19. The defense was shredded for 36 in that Saints game, and that was by QB Teddy Bridgewater, by the way. Since, they have righted the ship with totals allowed of 17, 22, 13, 17 and 14. Again, Bears football.

There is no reason to believe anything will be different than the first meeting, as the Lions just cannot seem to get out of their own way. They’re coming off of a disappointing 19-16 loss at Washington last week, and many in the Twittersphere are calling for the Ford Family to pull the plug on the Matt Patricia experiment. Others are calling for boycotts of the Lions until they start winning. If that’s the case, Ford Field might be empty for a while.

The Lions had a potent passing attack under Stafford earlier in the season, going for 24 or more points in six of the first eight games, and 27 or more points on five occasions during the span. Since it was discovered Stafford had tiny fractures in his lower back. Driskel has taken over for three games and the results have not been good. While they did hoist up 27 points in a loss to Dallas in Week 11, they had the 13-point effort in Chicago and just the 16 points last week in D.C. The under is 2-1 in Driskel’s three assignments to date. It should be noted that Driskel is dealing with a hamstring injury which limited him in practice both Monday and Tuesday, although Monday’s status was just an estimation. In any event, if he cannot go it would be former Purdue signal called David Blough, engineer of the Ohio State upset last season, getting his first NFL start.

Overall Detroit has posted 378.5 total yards per game to rank ninth in the NFL, but most of that damage was down with a healthy Stafford. They’re just 18th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in points scored (23.6) and tumbling hard. Defensively they are just 29th in the league with 396.2 total yards per game allowed while yielding 275.5 passing yards per contest. They’re also 24th in rushing yards per game yielded at 120.7.

The under is a perfect 6-0 in Chicago’s past six inside the division, and 13-3 in the past 16 games overall. That includes a 5-2 mark in the past seven on the road, too. For Detroit, the over has hit in four straight at home, but the under is 5-1 in the past six inside the NFC North. The under has connected in six of the past eight meetings in this series, too.

This total opened 41 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and it's down to 38 as of Wednesday morning with one-sided action on the under.

Buffalo at Dallas (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The total for this game opened 45 and held steady before slipping ever so briefly to 44.5, but then it rose back to 45.5 and 46. You can likely continue to expect some fluctuation based upon the low-scoring total the Cowboys posted last week in New England, and based upon sensible bettors understanding Dallas was facing the No. 1 defense in the NFL in the rain and slop, and not to discard their offense too much. Statistically and records-wise, this should be the best matchup of the holiday.

The Bills hit the under in each of their first five games this season, and were actually the last NFL team to see an over result cash in 2019. While the over is 3-3 across the past six games for Buffalo since that 5-0 under run, keep in mind that two of their games came against the defensively-challenged Miami Dolphins, as Buffalo averaged 34.0 PPG in those two contests. Take the two Dolphins games out of the equation and the under is 8-1 for Buffalo in 2019.

The Cowboys haven’t beaten a team above .500 all season, going 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread while splitting the over/under in four outings against winning sides. Meanwhile, the Bills have relished the opportunity to go on the road, going 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS while the under has produced a 4-1 mark. Again, the outlier here was a Nov. 17 trip to Miami where they dropped a season-high 37. In their other four roadies the Bills mustered 17, 28, 14 and 16. While coughing up 16, 14, 7 and 19.

Buffalo’s defense has had it on lockdown all season, ranking third in the NFL in total yards allowed (288.6), passing yards allowed (184.3) and points allowed (15.7). Offensively they have managed to rank a very middling 18th in total yards (352.7) on offense, while posting just 213.5 yards per game through the air to rank 24th. In three games against the NFC East the Bills are averaging 21.7 PPG while yielding 18.0 PPG.

Despite a nary nine points last week in the muck at Foxboro, the Cowboys still rank No. 1 in total yards per game (433.4) on offense and No. 1 in passing yards (303.5). They’re also sixth in the league with 26.8 PPG. Defensively they rank seventh with 19.1 PPG allowed. At home, the Pokes have posted 35, 31, 24, 37 and 24, so the Bills defense likely will have its hands full. Defensively, Dallas is allowed 17, 6, 24, 10 and 28 in five home games, a huge array.

For what it’s worth, the last time these teams met it was a 16-6 Dallas victory back on Dec. 27, 2015. Another note, the Cowboys have scored 31 points in their last four wins on Thanksgiving Day but just 6, 14 and 10 points in their losses. The Team Total on the Cowboys for tomorrow is hovering between 26 and 27.

New Orleans at Atlanta (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The oddsmakers are expecting this game to be the highest-scoring battle on the three-game Thanksgiving slate. Of course, they expected that in the first game, too, and the Saints laid an absolute egg. Back in Week 10 the Falcons won outright as 14-point underdogs, shocking New Orleans in a 26-9 stunner. The nine points tied a season low for NOLA, and it marked just the second time the Saints high-octane offense was held out of the end zone this season, and first time with QB Drew Brees under center for an entire game (he left the Week 2 game at L.A. Rams early due to injury).

For the 14th season the NFL features a night game on Thanksgiving Day (can you believe it’s been that long?) and the under has connected in each of the past five seasons, with the low side 9-4 overall. Last season’s Thanksgiving Day game featured a total of 61.5, but these teams never threatened that in a 31-17 win by the Saints under the protection of their dome in the Big Easy.

The loss to the Falcons in Week 10 seems to have served as a wake-up call for the Saints, as they have hit 34 points on offense in each of their past two outings, a pair of ‘over’ results inside the division at Tampa Bay and home to Carolina in a game the Saints probably should have lost 34-31 if the Panthers had a reliable kicker. The over is 3-1 in the four divisional games so far for the Saints, and 3-1 in their past four games on the road, too. The Saints have posted 33, 13, 36 and 34 in their past four away from home.

Atlanta has been a Jekyll & Hyde team, and those type of teams are maddening to bettors. They allowed 28, 20, 27, 24, 53, 34, 37 and 27 through their first eight games. So, naturally, everyone expected the Saints to steamroll them with a cornucopia of offense, but they allowed just nine points on the road. Then, the Falcons topped by stuffing Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers in a 29-3 drumming in Charlotte. Naturally, they’d keep it up at home against turnover-prone Jameis Winston and the Bucs last week. Nah, they were trucked for 35. Who will show up this week?

The total is hovering around 48.5 and 49 points as of Wednesday, depending on the shop, and that’s a little less than the first meeting. That’s likely based on the trends of these teams lately, as well as in this season. The under is 7-0-1 in the past eight appearances for New Orleans on a Thursday, and 9-2 in their past 11 against teams with an overall losing record. The under is 4-1 in Atlanta’s past five, and 3-1-1 in their past five Thursday showings. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings, and 7-3 in the past 10 battles between the Georgia Dome and the Mercedes-Benz Dome in downtown Atlanta.

We've see the under go 7-5 in the night spot on Thursday's this season and that includes a 5-2 mark to the low side in divisional games.

[Udog]

Here's wishing you and yours a great Thanksgiving day!

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


PRESSURE COOKING

The New Orleans Saints have the best defensive pressure rate in the NFL, creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks at 38 percent. The Saints took down Carolina QB Kyle Allen four times last week and will look to get to Atlanta’s Matt Ryan this week. Ryan’s offensive line is allowing the 24th most pressure to their QB at 31 percent.

"Matty Ice" has been sacked the second-most times over the last two weeks and has been sacked three or more times in half of his games this year. His defense has also had some success getting to Drew Brees. In their previous matchup against the Saints just three weeks ago, the Falcon’s defense took down Mr. Brees six times - the most sacks he has taken since Week 16, 2013.

We are jumping on the Over 4.5 sacks for this Thursday night contest and are 6-2 in our weekly sacks play.


RESEARCH IN COHEN

It’s no secret that the Lions have one of the league’s worst pass defenses as they sit in 24th in DVOA pass defense. But they also are 24th in rushing yards allowed per game and are looking at some key injuries to their interior defensive line.

Three members of the Lions’ defensive line are questionable Thursday. Defensive end Trey Flowers is expected to suit up, but DE Da’Shawn Hand and DT Damon Harrison are truly questionable. This upgrades the Chicago running game and will help our Mitch Trubisky Over prop from yesterday.

David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen have played nearly the exact same snaps over the last three weeks. Montgomery is averaging just 38 yards on 14.6 carries over the last three weeks, including a 17-60-0 versus Detroit three weeks ago. Cohen has been gaining 4.33 yards per carry on his 18 carries since Week 10 but has averaged 5.3 receptions on 6.33 targets for 29 yards and crossed the plane twice over that same stretch.

Looking at the runners’ prop bets, the ones that stand out the most and gives us the best value are Cohen’s reception total of 3.5 (-125) and his Over 19.5 rushing yards (-115). Cohen has topped both those totals in two straight weeks as teammate Montgomery struggles to gain yards.

Take Montgomery’s Over 3.5 receptions and Over 19.5 rushing yards.


DEVIN THINGS DONE

Buffalo’s Devin Singletary has taken over the majority of the Bills’ backfield touches since Week 9, averaging 70 percent of the offensive snaps. The 2019 third-round rookie has rushed for 75 yards or more in three of his last four games while trotting to a 4.97 yards per carry.

The Cowboys rush defense allowed Sony Michel and Dalvin Cook to top 84 yards rushing in the last month and in the other two games, let Daniel Jones and Bo Scarborough rush for over 50 yards. In its last four matches, Dallas has allowed 125 rushing yards per game and the sixth-most yards per rush attempt at home.

At nearly five yards per carry, it could only take Singletary half-a-dozen rushes to pass his modest rushing total of 60.5 rushing yards. Hit the Over and watch what the explosive rookie can do on the big stage.


BRING IN THE KICKING TEAM

The Falcons and the Saints have struggled offensively in the red zone. Both teams sit in the Bottom-eight in red zone TD score percentage over the last three weeks and are Bottom-10 over the course of the season.

Both defenses have also been holding their opponents to field goals inside the 20 as Atlanta has the fourth-best opponents’ red-zone TD score percentage since Week 10 and New Orleans sits 11th.

A field goal has been the first score in each of the last five Falcons’ games while three of the last five Saints’ games has had a field goal as the first score. If you are looking for an early play in Atlanta for the late game Thursday, take a look at the “first score is a field goal” prop that is paying +149.


TALK TO FAMILY OR WATCH THIS GAME

Well, the word is in and that word is David Blough. The Lions will start the undrafted 24-year-old QB against the Bears’ No.6 DVOA defense and we don’t imagine a lot of families will be sitting around the T.V. Thursday afternoon impressed by the Lions’ QB play.

With Blough starting, every Detroit skill player takes a hit and it’s tough to put our money on any Detroit player prop: Blough 183.5; Kenny Galloday 50.5; Marvin Jones 45.5. What we could see is a real stinker of a game as the total has fallen from 41 to 37.

If you’re looking to fade this entire game here is a shortlist of ideas:

• Alternative total: Under 28 +300
• Total touchdowns scored: Under 3.5 +110
• Longest TD scored: Under 35.5 -120
• Bears winning by: 1-6 points +260
• Total field goals scored: Under 2.5 +150

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


THE PACKER SLAYER

Tell me if you’ve heard this one: the Giants’ receivers are questionable. This week, Golden Tate has been added to the list with a concussion as he joins TE Evan Engram with questionable tag. Sterling Shepard did dress last week but never did anything big with a long gain of six yards. The one player who has taken advantage of all the extra reps has been WR Darius Slayton.

Slayton has gone from 45 percent of the snaps early in the year to 90 percent over the Giants' last six games and is Daniel Jones’ main deep threat. Slayton has seen 21 targets over the last two weeks and has averaged nearly 15 yards per reception.

Green Bay allows the seventh-most passing yards on the road and showed in San Francisco last week that they’re susceptible to the big play. We’re banging the Over on Slayton’s receiving yard total on any number below 73 yards as the markets are waiting to see what happens with Tate and Engram before they open.


FOURNETTE FEATURES

Since Nick Foles has “taken back over” the starting QB job two weeks ago, Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette has amassed 19 targets for 16 grabs and 96 yards receiving. He also toted the rock 24 times for 97 yards against a tough Titans defense last week. The Jags will have one of the best offensive matchups a team can have as they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday.

The Bucs are giving up 380 yards of total offense on the road this year (24th most) and with Foles looking short constantly (6.2 yards per pass attempt), Fournette could take advantage in the passing game. Tampa Bay actually has the league’s best DVOA rush defense, so we will shy away from any Fournette rushing props.

We are taking the Over 37.5 Fournette receiving yards as similar dual-threat running backs have had success against Tampa Bay in the air.


TD TV

The biggest game of the week will see the San Francisco 49ers travel to the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore is putting up over 450 yards of offense a game over its last three while San Francisco is putting up 380 yards this year. Both sit No.1 and No.2 in touchdowns scored a game and average drive length.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have been steamrolling the opposition in their last five games, winning by an average score of 40-12. In those five games, the offense is averaging over four TDs a game while the defense has scored five TDs of its own. San Francisco has been impressive as well as it have scored at least four TDs in four of its last five games.

These two defenses can shut it down as they rank Top-4 in Wtd DVOA defense at FootballOutsiders. But these defenses compliment their electric offenses as each unit can force the three-and-out early in drives and get great field position as a result. The 49ers have the second-best starting field position while the Ravens have the ninth-best.

We are playing the Over 5.5 total TDs for plus money (+120)


CHRISTIAN CARRIES CAROLINA

The Washington Redskins are giving up the second-most rushing attempts per game this year at 32.3. Over their last three games, that number has ballooned to 35 and on the road that number is a league-worst 33.2. Sometimes it is safer to bet on volume than results.

No running back in the league is having a better season than Carolina's Christian McCaffrey. He’s second in rushing attempts, first in rushing yards, has the third-longest run by a running back, and has the most rushing TDs. He also has more receiving yards than Juju Smith-Schuster and – the cherry on top of it all - is a 99 rating in Madden.

There’s no reason that the Panthers don’t give CMC enough carries to eclipse his total of 20.5 rushes especially with Carolina expected to play with the lead.

[Udog]

NFL Week 13 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Julian Edelman isn't among New England's flu-bitten players, but he's questionable to play at Houston due to a shoulder issue. The SuperBook estimates Edelman is worth a half-point to the line.

NFL Week 13 apparently finds a boatload of Patriots dealing with the flu as the team prepares to face the Texans. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: During Thanksgiving week, someone apparently gave thanks by spreading the flu around the Patriots’ locker room, with several players taken ill. Osterman said that didn’t impact the line at his shop, but wideout Julian Edelman (shoulder) – listed as questionable Friday – would make a difference. “Edelman would be a big loss for the Patriots. He’s worth a half-point,” Osterman said. On Friday night, New England was at -3 (-120), with a total of 45.5, for the Sunday night game at Houston.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Center Matt Skura’s season ended with a knee injury last week in a road rout of the Los Angeles Rams. That made undrafted rookie Patrick Mekari the new starter, in what may or may not become an issue. “Skura being out doesn’t necessarily affect this week, but we will be evaluating the offensive line without him to see if there may be some drop-off going forward.” The Ravens are 5.5-point home favorites against the 49ers.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Wideout Dante Pettis (knee) is out at Baltimore, while kicker Robbie Gould (quadriceps) returns after missing three weeks. However, The SuperBook didn’t adjust off either update, with the Niners a 5.5-point underdog.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring) is questionable at home against the Rams. “We didn’t move off the Murray news. We’ve had some sharp action on the Cardinals. I would expect him to go.” On Friday night, Arizona was +2.5, with a total of 47.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: T.Y. Hilton, who missed three games before returning last week at Houston, has a calf injury and will sit out at home against the Titans. “Hilton is worth a half-point to a full point. We took some sharp action Thursday night on Tennessee, right before the news broke. The line has since gone down even more.” The Colts were at -2.5 Thursday morning and dropped to pick by Friday morning, before going back to -1. Running back Marlon Mack (hand) is also out, but Osterman said that half-point was built into the original line of Colts -3.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: A combination of injuries and an undrafted rookie starting at quarterback this week created plenty of movement in the Browns-Steelers line. Pittsburgh won’t have wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion/knee), and running James Conner (shoulder) is doubtful. Mason Rudolph was pulled at QB, making way for Devlin Hodges. “All of those things contribute to the big line move in this game,” Osterman said of a line flipping from Steelers -1.5 to Browns -2. “That’s mostly due to the quarterback. Connor and Smith-Schuster would account for a half-point combined.”

CINCINNATI BENGALS: It’s not an injury, but Andy Dalton returns to the starting role at home against the Jets, after Bengals coach Zac Taylor ended the Ryan Finley experiment. “Dalton is worth 1 point to the spread. We went from +4 to +3 on that when he was announced the starter.”

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Tight end Zach Ertz (hamstring) and running back Jordan Howard (shoulder) are both questionable at Miami, but that didn’t influence The SuperBook’s oddsmaking team. “No move on Howard and Ertz.” In fact, Philly – which opened -7.5 – moved from -9.5 to -10 Friday.


Weather Watch

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: Rain is all but guaranteed Sunday, but Osterman said that hasn’t made an impact yet. In fact: “We’ve even been getting some play on the Over.” The total opened 46.5, dipped to 45.5 Tuesday, then returned to 46.5 before ticking to 46 Friday afternoon.

NEW YORK JETS AT CINCINNATI: Rain and wind in the mid-teens is expected in the afternoon/evening in Cincinnati. “I think we would have seen some movement on the total, but when Andy Dalton got announced as the Bengals’ starter, things got balanced out.” The total was at a high point of 41.5 Friday, after opening 41 and going as low as 39.

GREEN BAY AT NEW YORK GIANTS: Sunday brings with it a 100 percent chance of snow-to-rain precipitation. “We have seen the total come down, from 46.5 to 44.5.”

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Rain is fully expected at Heinz Field. “The total has come down, some due to the weather and some due to Devlin Hodges being named the starter” at quarterback for the Steelers. The total opened 40.5 and has been at 38.5 since Wednesday.

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY: It’ll be cloudy, cold and windy at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. “The total has come down a lot, from 54.5 to 51.”
Pros vs. Joes

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: “The only one that really stands out” as Pros vs. Joes, Osterman said. “The public seems to be fully on the Ravens bandwagon, but the line has slowly moved toward the 49ers. Almost all of the market was at Ravens -6 early in the week, and now there are even some -5s starting to show up. We have been at Ravens -5.5 since Wednesday morning, and we’ve seen a steady flow of Ravens parlay money all week.”
Reverse Line Moves

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: “We’re seeing money on the Steelers, even though the Browns are favored now. I guess there are some people willing to back the Steelers, even with Devlin Hodges at quarterback.” It’s a rematch of the Week 11 Thursday night game that ended with a brawl. Pittsburgh is a 2-point underdog, after opening as 1.5-point chalk.

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: As Osterman alluded to in Pros vs. Joes, the Ravens are drawing the bulk of the cash, but the line is starting to trend toward the underdog 49ers. Baltimore peaked at -6.5 early in the week and has sat at -5.5 since Wednesday.


Pros vs. Joes

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: “The only one that really stands out” as Pros vs. Joes, Osterman said. “The public seems to be fully on the Ravens bandwagon, but the line has slowly moved toward the 49ers. Almost all of the market was at Ravens -6 early in the week, and now there are even some -5s starting to show up. We have been at Ravens -5.5 since Wednesday morning, and we’ve seen a steady flow of Ravens parlay money all week.”


Reverse Line Moves

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: “We’re seeing money on the Steelers, even though the Browns are favored now. I guess there are some people willing to back the Steelers, even with Devlin Hodges at quarterback.” It’s a rematch of the Week 11 Thursday night game that ended with a brawl. Pittsburgh is a 2-point underdog, after opening as 1.5-point chalk.

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: As Osterman alluded to in Pros vs. Joes, the Ravens are drawing the bulk of the cash, but the line is starting to trend toward the underdog 49ers. Baltimore peaked at -6.5 early in the week and has sat at -5.5 since Wednesday.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 13
Joe Williams

It's Week 13 of the National Football League regular-season schedule, as we've hit the holidays and are heading for the home stretch. The 'under' got off to a 2-1 start this week with our three Thanksgiving Day features, as the lowest total on the board went 'over' while the primetime battle between the New Orleans Saints-Atlanta Falcons saw the 'under' cash tickets yet again in a game under the lights..

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 12 5-9 5-9 5-8-1

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 84-91-1 81-94-1 77-94-5

The totals went 9-5 in favor of the 'under' last week, or in other words, in favor of the books. The public generally stays away from the risky proposition which is the 'under' and tends to gravitate toward the cushy, safe and relaxed feeling of an 'over.' As I always say, once it is over, it's over, but the under you have to sweat out until there are all zeroes on the clock. Under betting isn't for the faint of heart.

The 'under' theme was common in both the first-half (9-5) and second-half (8-5-1) in Week 12 as well. On the season, the low side has trended ahead in both the first-half (81-94-1) and second-half (77-94-5).

Division Bell

In the five divisional battles in Week 12, the slight edge went to the 'over' - including NFC South battle between the New Orleans Saints-Carolina Panthers in Charlotte which coasted well 'over' the number. The under is now 32-27 (54.2%) in divisional games this season, which includes this past Thursday's results in Week 13 between the Bears and Lions, as well as the Saints and Falcons.

Divisional Game Results Week 12
Indianapolis at Houston Under (46.5) Houston 20, Indianapolis 17
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Under (37) Pittsburgh 16, Cincinnati 10
Carolina at New Orleans Over (46.5) New Orleans 34, Carolina 31
Tampa Bay at Atlanta Over (51.5) Tampa Bay 35, Atlanta 22
Tennessee at Jacksonville Over (42) Tennessee 42, Jacksonville 20

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 13 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Oakland at Kansas City: 54 ½ to 51
Green Bay at N.Y. Giants: 47 to 45
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 40 ½ to 39
New England at Houston: 44 ½ to 46
Philadelphia at Miami: 46 ½ to 45
Tennessee at Indianapolis: 42 to 43 ½
Washington at Carolina: 41 to 39 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 13 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Oakland at Kansas City: Under 93%
N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati: Over 87%
Philadelphia at Miami: Under 84%
New England at Houston: Over 76%
L.A. Chargers at Denver: Under 73%
Tennessee at Indianapolis: Over 73%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (69 percent) in the Washington at Carolina matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Cleveland at Pittsburgh (61 percent) contest.
Handicapping Week 13

Week 12 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-2 26-30
NFC vs. NFC 0-4 18-21
AFC vs. AFC 1-2 16-16-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1 25-23

Week 13 Action

Green Bay at N.Y. Giants: The public has been jumping all over the Packers, driving the line up significantly over the Giants. But what about the total? Well, the over is 20-9 in Green Bay's past 29 games on the road. The good news is that this is not in the state of California, a place which has been their kryptonite. The Packers are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread in the Golden State, and the under also 2-0 in their two roadies in Cali, and the 'over' is 2-1 in the other three road games. The over is also 2-0 in Green Bay's previous two this season against NFC East foes. For the G-Men, this will do it against the NFC Central. The 'under is 2-1 in their previous three, hitting the under in their only game at Met Life Stadium vs. Central. The under is 4-1 for the Giants at home this season, as they have scored 14, 24, 10, 21 and 18.

San Francisco at Baltimore: The 49ers head east to battle quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in a highly-anticipated matchup of defense vs. offense. It is the fourth and final foray into the Eastern Time Zone for the 49ers this season, and they're 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS with the 'under' going 2-1. As far as Baltimore is concerned, it's all over all the time. The over is 3-1 in the past four games overall, but the under is 3-2 in their five games at M&T Bank Stadium this season. While everyone is talking about the quarterback and offense, which has totals of 30, 37, 49, 41 and 45 in the past five weeks, look what the defense has done. They've allowed 26 total points - or 8.7 PPG - across the past three outings.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: Ever since making the change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill, the Titans offense has been on fire. They scored 17, 7, 24, 7 and 0 in Mariota's final five starts, averaging 11 PPG of offense in his final five outings. In the five games since Tannehill has taken the reins of the offense, the offense has posted 23, 27, 20, 35 and 42. That's the 'over' hitting in five straight with Tannehill, and the offense appears to be getting better each week. The good news for total bettors, in particular those who love the 'over', the defense has yielded 20 or more points in each of the past five, too. This is a rematch of the Week 2 game in Nashville which saw the Colts win 19-17, an 'under' result. Again, Mariota was at the helm in that one, so not much to glean here. The under is 11-3 in the past 14 battles in Indianapolis, too, but again, most of those games featured Mariota or QB Andrew Luck, neither of whom will be starting Sunday. Looking to more recent trends, the over is 5-0 in Tennesse's past five, the over is 4-1 in their past five against winning teams and the over is 5-2 in Indy's past seven at home.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville: The Jags were tuned up in Nashville by the aforementioned Titans, falling 42-20 as the 'over' hit. The Jags defense has gone south over the past three outings, all divisional games, yielding 26, 33 and 42. The Bucs have an offense capable of moving the ball early and often, while also yielding plenty of points along the way. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 in the past nine outings, with the last 'under' for the Bucs in Week 2 in Carolina. The Bucs defense has allowed 22 or more points in nine straight games, so perhaps QB Nick Foles and the Jacksonvile offense finally gets untracked in this one.

N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati: The QB Ryan Finley experiment is over, as head coach Zac Taylor announced the Bengals are going back to veteran QB Andy Dalton as their starter for this one. The Bengals averaged just 7.7 PPG in three games under Finley, while posting 18 PPG in eight starts under Dalton, at least looking like a semi-functional offense at times. The under is 5-2-1 in Dalton's eight starts, although the over is 2-0-1 in his three starts at home. The under was 2-1 in Finley's three on-the-job training spots. The Jets held the Raiders to three points last week, slapping the brakes on a 4-0 'over' run. In five games on the road this season, New York has posted a 4-1 over mark, and they have score exactly 34 points in each of their past three outings.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: It's a rematch of two weeks ago, as the Browns and Steelers square off at Heinz Field in a super-important game in the AFC wild-card picture. The Steelers can deal the Browns a disastrous blow with a win, while the Browns can grab a head-to-head advantage over the Steelers with a win. The last time these teams met, we all know about the Myles Garrett situation. However, the guy he tried to bludgeon with a helmet is carrying a clipboard this week. QB Mason Rudolph has been benched in favor of undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges. He led the Steelers to a win in place of an injured Rudolph on the road against the Chargers back on Oct. 13, a 24-17 win and 'under' result. He came off the bench and led a charge in Cincinnati, also a 16-10 win and 'under'.

L.A. Rams at Arizona: The Rams offense continued to flounder in their 45-6 loss on Monday night against Jackson and the Ravens, as L.A. is averaging just 11.7 PPG across the past three outings. The 'under' is 5-1 in the past six, too. This is the first of two meetings in the next five weeks between these two. The under has connected in five of the past seven meetings in this series, although none of those games included the dynamic rookie QB Kyler Murray, who continues to improve. The under is 5-1 in L.A.'s past six overall, and 7-2 in the past nine road games. The under is also 4-0 in Arizona's past four following a bye week, too.

L.A. Chargers at Denver: The Broncos have reportedly been doing everything to prepare rookie QB Drew Lock for his first NFL start, although, officially, the starting signal caller is undecided for head coach Vic Fangio as of Saturday morning. It appears the QB Brandon Allen experience might be over, however. He started for three games, helping the team register 15.7 PPG over the past three outings. The Broncos won the first meeting in L.A. by a 20-13 score, but that was QB Philip Rivers vs. Joe Flacco, not Rivers vs. Lock. It will be interesting to see what the rookie from Missouri can do, but total bettors might want to shy away from this one until we get a little more information on him.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 13, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 39 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Washington at Carolina (1:00 p.m. ET): The Redskins continue to tick off 'under' results fairly regularly, and it hasn't mattered who is under center. The team scored 19 points last week in a win, and believe it or not that was the highest total since Week 2 vs. Dallas. Their season high of 27 points came in the regular-season opener and it's been all downhill from there. Since Sept. 29 the Redskins have scored 3, 7, 17, 0, 9, 9, 17 and 19, or an average of 11.6 PPG. It's no surprise the 'under' is 7-1 during the span. As far as the Panthers are concerned, they're a rather erratic team. In nine starts with QB Kyle Allen under center, the 'over' is 6-3. However, the offense has mustered just 16.7 PPG across the past three outings. The Redskins have hit the under in each of their past four instances as a double-digit underdogs, however, and that knowledge by bettors is likely what's driving the line down.

Philadelphia at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET): The Dolphins are double-digit 'dogs at home for the third time this season. The under hit in each of the first two instances, and the under is 5-2 in the first seven time the Dolphins have been underdogs by 10 or more points. For Philly, they've lost their way on offense, mainly due to a bevy of injuries, while the defense has been locking it down. As such, the under is 3-0 across their past three outings. During that span the offense is averaging just 13.7 PPG while allowing 12.7 PPG.

Oakland at Kansas City (4:25 p.m. ET): The Raiders and Chiefs met in the Black Hole back in Week 2, with Kansas City posting a 28-10 and 'under' result. The under is 2-1 in Oakland's first three AFC West Division battles. As a road underdog the over is 3-1 for the Raiders, however, while the Chiefs have hit the over in four of their five games at Arrowhead, even when QB Patrick Mahomes was on the shelf. As a home favorite the 'over' is 2-1 for the Chiefs, and the offense is averaging 23.3 PPG with the defense yielding 26.0 PPG. The under is 20-7 in Oakland's past 27 inside the division, however, while going a perfect 4-0 in Kansas City's past four against AFC West foes. In this series the under is hitting to the tune of 17-5 in the past 22 at Arrowhead, and 21-8 in the past 29 meetings overall.

Under the Lights

New England at Houston (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Texans are back under the lights in a great measuring stick game against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The Texans have actually hit the 'under' in four straight, and they're scoring just 20.0 PPG during the span while allowing 21.3 PPG, 14.7 PPG if you take out a 41-point outburst by the Ravens in Week 11 which skewed things slightly. The under is actually 8-1 for Houston's past nine at NRG Stadium in Houston, and 20-7 in the past 27 against AFC foes. For the Patriots, they're a friend of the under bettor because of their sturdy defense, especially on the road. The under is 4-1 in the past five overall, 10-2 in the past 12 in December and 25-10 in the past 35 on the road.

Minnesota at Seattle (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The 'over' has cashed for Minnesota in each of the past three, with the offense posting 26 PPG and the defense yielding 24.3 PPG. In fact, the over is 5-1 across the past six overall for the Vikings. For the Seahawks, as a home favorite of less than a touchdown this season, the over is 3-1. However, the trends for both of these teams on Monday nights points to the under. The under is 6-1 in Minnesota's past seven appearances on MNF, while the under is 7-3 in the past 10 for Seattle on Monday.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 13
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 10-0 ATS (4.75 ppg) since Oct 30, 2011 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Titans are 0-12 ATS (-9.62 ppg) since Dec 19, 2004 on the road coming off a game where they had a player with at least 124 receiving yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-7-1 ATS (-3.12 ppg) since Sep 25, 2016 coming off a road game where Jameis Winston had at least two interceptions.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 14-0 OU (10.29 ppg) since Oct 22, 2017 as a dog coming off a game where they scored more points than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-12 OU (-8.96 ppg) since Dec 30, 2001 as a road dog coming off a loss as a favorite where less scored points than expected.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 12-0 ATS (+6.29 ppg) at home after a game as a road dog in which they converted at least five third downs.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


TAKE MY BET D.K.

Last week, Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf led the Seahawks in targets, something he has done in three of the last five weeks. In fact, Metcalf has tied fellow receiver Tyler Lockett in targets, or had more, in five of the Seahawks’ last eight games. Metcalf and the passing game may see even more action Monday against the Minnesota Vikings as RB Chris Carson has fumbled four times in his last three games.

At first thought, the Vikings wouldn’t be an optimal matchup for outside receivers as they are a top-10 defense, however, Minny is allowing 79 yards on nearly nine targets to opposing teams’ WR1s. Minnesota has allowed 22 receptions and 400 yards receiving to opposing No.1 outside receivers over the last three weeks with all three WRs topping 110 yards.

We are doubling down on the pacifier playmaker and taking Metcalf’s Over 3.5 receptions and Over 57.5 receiving yards for this Monday night showdown.


SAM THE MAN

The New York Jets’ Sam Darnold might have the easiest schedule for quarterbacks from Week 9 to 14 with the Washington Redskins being the hardest matchup over that stretch. This week, the Jets’ QB will face a Cincinnati Bengals defense that is dead last in yards per pass attempt and last in yards per completion. Every pass completed against the Bengals this year is on average 13.1 yards — that’s nuts.

Only two quarterbacks have more passing yards than Darnold over the last two weeks as the Jets have won three straight and are 3-0 ATS. We are riding with Joe Namath V2.0 and taking Darnold’s Over 239.5 passing yards.


BUSY AS A HIGBEE

It’s been a while since we played a tight end facing the Arizona Cardinals’ defense, which is too bad as TEs have been working the Red Birds all year. Arizona sits in last place in yards allowed to opposing tight ends and is giving up 78 yards on 8 passes to TEs this year.

This week, the L.A. Rams’ Tyler Higbee gets a dream matchup with fellow TE Gerald Everett out. We know the Rams’ offense isn’t impressing anyone this year, scoring just 12 points over their last three games but Higbee has a chance to see plenty of volume as the team’s main TE.

The Cards have given up four-catch games to unknown TE Ross Dwelley and underachiever O.J. Howard over the last two weeks. If they can do it, so can Higbee who hauled in eight catches on 10 targets in Weeks 10 and 12 with Everett in the lineup.

Take the Over 3.5 receptions on Higbee’s receiving total for +108.


MORTGAGE JONES

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have played four top-15 rush DVOA defenses in their last five games. This week Ronald Jones will get his chance to light up the Jacksonville Jaguars and their league-worst rush DVOA defense.

The Jags have been getting shredded on the ground, allowing 5.4 yards per carry over the year. It's been even worse lately for the Bucs as Todd Walsh’s defense is letting opposing RBs to run for 6.8 yards per carry over their last three games. In those three games, Derrick Henry, Jonathan WIlliams and Carlos Hyde all rushed for over 110 yards.

Jones saw 50 percent of the offensive snaps last week as the Bucs played with the lead. As 2.5-point road chalk, Tampa Bay has a chance to use their run game effectively throughout the entirety of the game. In the previous three games where Tampa has been the favorite, Jones is averaging 61 yards on the ground for a 4.84 ypc. Jones is also a perfect 5-for-5 in eclipsing 50 yards rushing in games where has at least 12 carries.

We are jumping on the Over on Jones’ rushing total of 48.5 yards and his anytime rushing TD for +164.


GET-RICH KICK SCHEME

The winds are expected to be blowing hard this Sunday with a handful of games looking at double-digit wind speeds thanks to a bomb cyclone. Here is a list of breezy matchups and their O/U kicking prop for your field goal fading familiarity.

Teams’ FG conversion percentage;FGs attempted/game in parenthesis:
• OAK (73%;1.4) @ KC (86%;2.5) — 19.9 mph: Longest field goal 46.5
• TB (87%;2.2) @ JAC (96%;2.3) — 17.7 mph: Longest field goal 47.5
• NYJ (60%;1.4) @ CIN (83%;1.6) — 14.6 mph: Longest field goal 45.5
• WSH (80%;1.8) @ CAR (73%;2.4) — 13.6 mph: Longest field goal 45.5

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 13
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

49ers at Ravens (-5 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST
In a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII won by Baltimore, 34-31 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, these two squads have combined for an impressive 19-3 record through 11 games each. The Ravens (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) dominated the defending NFC champion Rams last Monday night, 45-6 to easily cash as 3 ½-point road favorites. MVP candidate Lamar Jackson threw five touchdown passes to help lead Baltimore to its third consecutive game scoring at least 41 points. Baltimore suffered through an 0-5 ATS run from Week 2 through Week 6, but the Ravens have covered in five straight games, including the last three as a favorite.

The 49ers (10-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) are also fresh off a blowout last week as San Francisco blasted Green Bay, 37-8 to help improve its chances at the top seed in the NFC playoffs. San Francisco’s defense allowed single-digits for the fourth time this season, while eclipsing the 30-point mark for the sixth time in 2019. The Niners picked up their first cover since a Week 8 blowout of the Panthers, while their ‘over’ streak of four games ended with the ‘under’ of 48 barely cashing.

The last team to own a 10-1 record and be listed as an underdog was the 2007 Packers, who lost to the Cowboys as seven-point ‘dogs in a 37-27 setback. San Francisco has won and covered in all three opportunities as an underdog this season, even though this will be its biggest ‘dog spot. Baltimore is seeking the four-game sweep of the NFC West, while not giving up more than 17 points in any of those victories.

Best Bet: Ravens 30, 49ers 21

Browns (-2, 39) at Steelers – 1:00 PM EST
Tensions were high the last time these AFC North rivals hooked up two weeks ago in Cleveland and ended with an ugly helmet-swinging situation by Cleveland’s Myles Garrett on Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph. Garrett has been suspended for the rest of the season and Rudolph has been replaced by Devlin Hodges as Cleveland seeks the season sweep. The Browns took care of the Steelers, 21-7 the first time around as three-point favorites, capped off by two touchdown passes and a touchdown run by quarterback Baker Mayfield.

The Browns (5-6 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) picked up their third consecutive win after routing the Dolphins, 41-24 to cash as 11-point favorites. Cleveland finished off a three-game sweep of its homestand as the Browns have an opportunity to still make the playoffs after a horrendous start as they still draw the winless Bengals twice, the Cardinals, and the Ravens at home. However, the Browns have lost their last three road games and have dropped 15 consecutive visits to Heinz Field dating back to 2004.

Pittsburgh (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) is still in the Wild Card mix after taking care of Cincinnati on the road last week, 16-10 as 5 ½-point favorites. Hodges replaced an ineffective Rudolph and gave Pittsburgh the lead for good early in the third quarter on a 75-yard touchdown strike to James Washington. The Steelers have allowed 43 points in the past three games, while hitting the ‘under’ in five of the previous six contests. Pittsburgh has won three straight at Heinz Field, while covering in both opportunities as a home ‘dog this season.

Best Bet: Steelers 19, Browns 17

Raiders at Chiefs (-10 ½, 50) – 4:05 PM EST
The calendar has reached December and Oakland is still alive in the AFC West. You wouldn’t think that would be the case after the Raiders (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) were blown out by the Jets, 34-3 as three-point road favorites last Sunday. That loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Silver and Black, who fell to 0-6 on the highway after a win since Jon Gruden returned to the sidelines last season. Oakland remains one game back of Kansas City in the AFC West, as the Raiders have covered in four of the past five chances in the role of an underdog.

The Chiefs (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) are back following the bye week as Kansas City held off Los Angeles in Mexico City, 24-17 to cash as 5 ½-point favorites in Week 11. Patrick Mahomes didn’t post his usual gawdy passing numbers as he was held to 182 yards through the air, but he led the Chiefs with 59 yards rushing. Amazingly, the Chiefs are seeking consecutive wins for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3, which also coincides with the last time Kansas City covered in back-to-back games.

Kansas City dominated Oakland in the second quarter of its past meeting in Week 2 at the Black Hole as Mahomes threw four touchdown passes in that period in a 28-10 triumph. The Chiefs have won six consecutive home matchups with the Raiders and nine of the past 10 overall with Oakland since 2014. Even though the narrative on head coach Andy Reid is he is nearly unbeatable off the bye week throughout his career, the Chiefs have been listed as a double-digit favorite off the bye the last two seasons and failed to cover each time.

Best Bet: Chiefs 27, Raiders 19

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 43 – Titans at Colts

Indianapolis has done an excellent job this season rebounding from poor offensive performances as the Colts were held to 17 points in a loss at Houston. The Colts have been limited to 20 points or fewer five times this season and in the previous four instances after a low-scoring effort, Indianapolis has scored 27, 30, 24, and 33 points, all resulting in ‘over’ plays. Tennessee has drilled the ‘over’ in all five games since Ryan Tannehill has started at quarterback, while scoring 77 points in the past two wins against Kansas City and Jacksonville.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Jacksonville is coming off three consecutive blowout losses to its three division rivals as the Jaguars return home to battle the Buccaneers. The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released the Jags as a one-point favorite on Monday, but the Bucs have been flipped to a rare road favorite as Tampa Bay is listed at -2 ½. The Buccaneers have failed to cover in the favorite role in three opportunities this season, while Tampa Bay brings in a nine-game ‘over’ streak.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Jets are fresh off three consecutive victories all in the underdog role as New York travels to Cincinnati to face the 0-11 Bengals. Now, New York is laying points on the road, which isn’t good news for a Jets’ team that is 0-2 SU/ATS when listed as a favorite in 2019. The Bengals’ offense has been dreadful all season, but Cincinnati’s defense has stepped up of late by allowing 33 points the last two weeks.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Rams and Cardinals have combined for a spectacular 14-7-1 ATS record on the season as the two NFC West rivals hook up in Arizona. Interestingly enough, Los Angeles and Arizona are each seeking their first division victory of the season as the Rams are 0-2 while the Cardinals are 0-3 within the NFC West. L.A. posted a perfect 6-0 record last season in division play, while outscoring Arizona, 65-9 in the two-game season sweep.

[Udog]

SNF - Patriots at Texans
Matt Blunt

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

After getting a SNF clash between two playoff bound NFC teams a week ago – a game I was clearly on the wrong side of – this week's SNF contest looks to showcase two teams from the AFC that are looking to make the playoffs as well.

The New England Patriots and Houston Texans have started to form a bit of a rivalry with one another having played five times since December 2015, but the rivalry is all one-sided as New England's gone 5-0 straight up (SU) and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in those contests. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson just hasn't been able to find success against this Patriots defense, and given that this year's version of that crew in New England is arguably the best of the bunch, Wastson and the Texans will be in tough yet again.

The good news for Houston this time around is the fact that they get to be at home for the first time since that game in December 2015, as it will be Watson's first career home start vs New England. Whether or not that helps the Texans get over the hump in this matchup remains to be seen, but having some extended rest for this game after playing last Thursday doesn't hurt either.

So will extra time to prepare and more friendly surroundings be enough to negate the coaching mismatch that is Bill O'Brien vs Bill Belichick for Houston, or will the Patriots continue to do what they do and get their annual victory over Houston?

Total Talk

This total held steady at 45 for most of the week until there was finally enough enough of a continued flood of 'over' money to push it up to it's current number of 46. It's hard not to agree with the move upwards, as both teams are plenty capable of moving the ball on one another, even with the Patriots defense putting up the stat lines that they have this year – albeit against a very soft schedule.

Both teams are coming off 'unders' last week, and when that is the case for any NFL game, I do like to look the other way the following week with the idea that there will be some regression to the mean. For one, when both teams had the same results the week before, it's easy for the general market perspective to look to that same side again, and total lines are influenced by that as well. After all, Houston's on a run of four consecutive 'unders' while the Patriots have had two in a row, and those results played a part in releasing this total in the mid-40's. Clearly I'm not the only one who believes in this line of thought in terms of some regression to the mean with the 'over' money coming in, and as I said, it's easy to agree with.

A controlled climate setting like the one in Houston brings ideal conditions to the game – something New England won't mind after last week's outing – and that's always a plus for points. And while Deshaun Watson hasn't beaten the Patriots in his career, I do expect to see Houston “borrow” a few of the schemes and play calls that Baltimore used against this Pats defense with Lamar Jackson, as Watson's got a similar skill set. Baltimore hung 37 on New England that day – they hung 41 on this Houston team too – and while the Texans aren't likely to get that high of a point total on the Patriots, getting 24 or so from Houston isn't a big stretch.

The Patriots will be able to get theirs too against a Texans defense that's been picked apart at times this year, as they can never seem to follow one strong performance up with another one. Houston's allowed less then 20 points against three times in their last eight games, and after the previous two they responded with efforts of giving up 32 and 41 points respectively. Belichick and company have a great idea of what to expect to see from Houston having faced them annually for the past few years, and that should lead to success on there end as well. New England has put up at least 27 points in all five of the meetings with Houston since that December 2015 game, and they should be able to do something similar this week.

So it's 'over' or nothing for me on the total in this game, as something like a 27-24 type game is a very realistic expectation in my view.

Side Spiel

The point-spread for this game is very interesting as you can lay -3 with juice on New England or take +3.5 with juice on the Texans. No matter what side you like I would suggest you do pay the juice to get the best of the number, because you just never know how critical that nasty little hook may be.

A New England primetime game lined in this range is always going to see plenty of love for the Patriots, and given their recent history of beating up on Houston in these matchups, going against the Patriots is a hard sell this week. If that's what you are looking to do, I'm sure the extra rest and home field for the Texans are playing a big part in your decision to back the Texans, and it's hard to fault that either. Home field and extra rest are about as good as it gets from a situational standpoint for any NFL team, and Houston's got that all working for them this week.

However, the coaching mismatch that is Bill O'Brien versus Bill Belichick is a decisive one that favors the Pats, and I'm not sure I can go against that scenario this week. Even if the Patriots are essentially spotting Houston a point or two for the benefit of being at home with rest, Belichick and his staff can coach circles around most teams in the league, and they've proved it on a yearly basis against this Houston crew. If I'm expecting the Texans to borrow a few plays from the Ravens, you know Belichick and the Pats are as well, as they probably went to work on counters and answers for Baltimore's attack the day after getting their asses handed to them by the Ravens.

With New England on a 4-1 ATS run following a game where they failed to cover a spread, 6-2 ATS in their last eight away from home, and 5-1 ATS after scoring 14 or fewer points, I do believe we get the best version of this Patriots offense from the start, and even with those situational advantages Houston's got, that's a scary proposition to go against. It's not something I'm looking to step in front of, especially when the Patriots now see Buffalo hot on their tails in terms of the AFC East race.

Final Thoughts

It might be considered square/public as hell to look at the favorite and the 'over' for a SNF game, but to me, those are the sides that end up getting there. I do believe that bypassing the spread and taking the Patriots on the ML (-170ish) is the safest way to go, and that's ultimately where I end up on this contest.

Even with the situational angles favoring the home side here, it's hard to see the Patriots losing a game like this, when they've always found a way to win against Houston throughout Deshaun Watson's career. Obviously something like that continues to happen until it doesn't, but I do believe it will be the Patriots defense that steps up and makes a key stop or two late to seal the deal.

Best Bet: New England Money-Line (-175)

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 13
Tony Mejia

Packers (-6.5/44.5) at Giants, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The total opened at 47 and has been bet down in part due to reports of truly awful weather that should spell trouble for both teams. Snow and rain will likely slow both down, though the Pack has won its coldest game at Lambeau in Week 10 over Carolina and the only time it saw rain, rolling past the Broncos. Green Bay was favored at home and covered in both of those games, but sharp money still came in on New York early when this number opened at 6.5.

Offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga sprained his MCL in last week’s loss to the 49ers in an injury that looked much worse when it occurred, but he’s likely to be a game-time decision. New York has already ruled out Golden Tate due to a concussion and won’t have tight ends Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison in addition to safety Jabrill Peppers. Saquon Barkley has really struggled in gaining just 29 yards on his last 27 carries and went out of his way to say his health isn’t a factor in his lack of production, so we’ll see if playing in horrible weather will help him get back on track. He’s got a history of excelling in nasty weather.

Redskins at Panthers (-9.5/39.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Coming off their first victory since mid-October, Washington makes the short trip to Charlotte looking to win consecutive games for the first time since winning three straight in October in 2018. That run started against the Panthers with a 23-17 win that was Washington’s first over Carolina since 2006. Christian McCaffrey was held to just 20 rushing yards on eight carries, so he’ll be looking for a little redemption in the rain as the Panthers look to snap a three-game losing streak. His team has allowed 20 or more points in all but one game this season, but does catch a break since the ‘Skins have been anemic on offense all season and arrives with the lowest scoring output in the entire NFL.

Rookie Dwyane Haskins got his first win as a starter against the Lions last week and led the team to 19 points, the most they’ve managed since Week 2. RB Derrius Guice has provided a spark and rookie Terry McLaurin leads all first-year receivers in yardage, so both played a role in setting up last week’s game-winning field goal and will look to help pull off an upset here. Linebacker Ryan Kerrigan, a mainstay who has made 139 consecutive starts, will miss his first game as a pro due to a concussion. Backup safety Deshazor Everett is going to play, but the ‘Skins look a little thin in the middle and DT Da’Ron Payne is questionable to play. Carolina has serious offensive line issues they’re dealing with as left tackle Greg Little (ankle) is doubtful and Taylor Moton (knee) is questionable to play.

49ers at Ravens (-5.5/45), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Rain will be part of the equation throughout the game since all of Baltimore will wake up to a steady downpour that isn’t supposed to relent until the early evening. Lamar Jackson’s worst game at quarterback this season came in a rainy 26-23 OT win in Pittsburgh in which he was picked off three times and he was just 9-for-20 in Seattle despite running for 116 yards and a score. The Ravens won that game thanks to a pair of defensive scores, so you can’t imagine that the offense is very excited about the weather considering the offense has piled up 172 yards in clear conditions over the past four games with Jackson throwing 13 TDs without being intercepted. Center Matt Skura was lost for the season last week, so undrafted rookie Patrick Mekari will step in. It will help Baltimore’s continuity up front if guard Bradley Bozeman can play through an ankle injury. RB Mark Ingram is a go after an ankle tweak.

San Francisco’s defensive front has been one of the league’s best all season but will have to chase Jackson around without Dee Ford, who joins WR Dante Pettis in being sidelined for this clash. The 49ers have adequately replaced LB Kwon Alexander but his absence will likely be felt against Jackson and Mark Ingram. Slippery receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was targeted seven times last week, catching five passes for his first two-touchdown effort since Week 1, so he’s as healthy as he’s been all season and could emerge as the x-factor here. San Francisco WRs Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder), TE George Kittle (ankle) and RB Matt Breida (ankle) are all set to play through their nagging ailments. The total has dipped a point from the opening number despite more public money in on the under.

Titans at Colts (-1/43), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Ryan Tannehill is making himself some serious money come offseason. He became the first Tennessee QB since the late Steve McNair to throw for two scores and run for two more in last week’s impressive win over Jacksonville that also showcased how much easier it is for RB Derrick Henry to get loose when teams have to worry about the passing game too. A victory over the Colts would keep them in the thick of the AFC South race and offers a leg up on the sixth and final playoff spot. Indianapolis is in exactly the same boat and at home for this one, but they open December with decidedly less momentum on the heels of a tight loss to the Texans, their third setback in four tries. With road games in Tampa, New Orleans and Jacksonville left to close out the months, it’s important that Indy holds serve at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Money came in on Tennessee early despite news about Henry struggling with his hamstring as he was limited on Wednesday and Thursday, but he’s set to participate. DE Cameron Wake went on IR, but corner Adoree Jackson is set to play. Quenton Nelson, the league’s top left guard, was also limited in practice and is going to participate, but the Colts are extremely banged up with WR T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Parris Campbell unlikely to go. Tight end Eric Ebron went on IR, so it’s important that Mo Alie-Cox return to lend Jack Doyle a hand. RB Marlon Mack is again out, so Jonathan Williams will again be the featured back. Indy got great news with rookie corner Rock Ya-Sin and safety Khari Willis available. Indianapolis has dominated recent meetings between these teams, winning 19 of 22, including three straight. The Titans won 19-17 in Week 2 behind three Jacoby Brissett touchdown passes.

Eagles (-4/46.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Since the Bills did Philly a huge favor with their Thanksgiving day upset, the opportunity to even the NFC East is there once again for the banged-up Eagles. After managing a combined 19 points against the Patriots and Seahawks in frustrating home losses, the offense is hoping that getting Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor back will help QB Carson Wentz snap out of his slump. RB Jordan Howard isn’t expected to return and TE Zach Ertz is looking to fight through a hamstring injury, so rookie Miles Sanders and reserve tight end Dallas Goedert will need to step up as x-factors. Tackle Lane Johnson is returning to the mix and should supply a boost.

The Dolphins’ two-game surge may ultimately derail the Colts, but the Bills and Browns have each beaten them by 17 points over the past few weeks. They’ll face the Jets, Giants and Bengals next, so Miami has a chance to put together another winning streak with their depleted heart-and-hustle group. WR Albert Wilson will play, but Preston Williams and Jakeem Grant all went on IR. With Kelan Ballage getting the bulk of the carries, Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t have much help. DeVante Parker will need a big game against the Eagles secondary since the Dolphins will likely need to score points to pull the upset. Foles should get back on track against a secondary missing safety Reshad Jones, CB Xavien Howard and Cordrea Tankersley. Replacements Ken Crawley, Ken Webster and Steven Parker are all questionable. Temperatures will be in the high 70s.

Browns (-2/39) at Steelers, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Cleveland looks to continue its comeback from the dead as it tries to get back to .500 for the first time in months by pulling off a sweep of Pittsburgh here. A Steelers’ win will keep them in the thick of the AFC wild card race, but they’re moving in on to Plan C at quarterback with undrafted rookie Ducky Hodges in the lineup ahead of Mason Rudolph following his benching last week. This will be the first time the teams are seeing each other since that wild brawl featuring Myles Garrett and Rudolph broke out at the end of a 21-7 Browns’ win on Nov. 14, so the teams can’t even pretend that enough time has passed for everyone to have gotten over it. Head coach Freddie Kitchens was seen wearing a “Pittsburgh Started It” t-shirt on Friday, so count on this being physical and potentially downright ugly. Thunderstorms are expected to be a part of the equation around halftime and rain should be present throughout.

Hodges again won’t have Juju Smith-Schuster due to a concussion and can’t lean on RB James Conner to hand off to or Maurkice Pouncey to snap and anchor the line since the All-Pro center is serving the final game of his suspension for his actions in the Garrett incident. Tackle Alejandro Villanueva is dealing with a shoulder issue but should play, as should corner Artie Burns. A shaky front could struggle against the Browns despite Garrett’s absence since Olivier Vernon is expected back in the fold. The Steelers’ defense has been the driving force for the team since acquiring safety Minkah Fitzgerald and hope to help out the offense by creating turnovers against Baker Mayfield. The Browns have their own issues on offense with tackle Greg Robinson sidelined and TE Daniel Njoku still out. Cleveland is looking to sweep Pittsburgh for the first time since 1988.

Rams (-3/47.5) at Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: Watching how the Rams respond from getting their doors blown off on Monday night in a 45-6 home loss to the Ravens will be telling since Sean McVay has led a charmed life thus far. Last year’s NFC champions will host Seattle next week before visiting Dallas and San Francisco and closing with a home game against the Cardinals. Running the table definitely gives them a chance to make the playoffs considering the competition and the fact the Vikings can get caught, but there’s no room for error left. If L.A. gets up off the mat, it can at least make things interesting for the month. Considering how awful things looked in the second half, there’s also a chance that the team drops a collective Sonny Liston and fails to come out of their corner this month. McVay’s message immediately after Monday’s bloodbath was to not let the loss linger. They got on the plane and will take the field in Glendale, so there’s that.

The Cardinals are in an underdog role again and have only been a favorite once this season, so even with L.A. coming off such a huge collapse, they’re a home dog that has dropped four straight outright but has still been among the better ATS teams, coming in 7-3-1 in that department. Kyler Murray aggravated a hamstring injury but is expected to try and play through it. With Chase Edmonds also set to go, the Cards have their top three backs available with David Johnson and Keyon Drake available alongside a speedy receiving corps. The Rams will have something to prove after getting carved up by Jackson and get another crack at a speedy dual-threat quarterback if Murray looks like his usual self. Brett Hundley is his backup.

[Udog]

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 13
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 13 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 7-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 102-67-1
Against the Spread 81-102-5

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 102-85-1
Against the Spread 81-102-5

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 92-95-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Redskins (+10.5, +450) at Panthers, 29-21
Dolphins (+10, +425) vs. Eagles, 37-31
Bills (+6.5, +250) at Cowboys (Thu.), 26-15
Broncos (+4.5, +190) vs. Chargers, 23-20

The largest favorite to cover
Chiefs (-11) vs. Raiders, 40-9
Saints (-7) at Falcons (Thu.), 26-18
Packers (-6.5) at Giants, 31-13
Buccaneers (-3) at Jaguars, 28-11

It's Happening Again!

-- The Miami Dolphins (+10) posted a 37-31 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., and the Washington Redskins (+10.5) were able to run all over the Carolina Panthers, securing a 29-21 victory. We had a pair of double-digit underdogs win outright back in Week 10 when the Dolphins and the Atlanta Falcons posted outright wins as underdogs of 11 or more points. It was the first time that had happened in the NFL since Oct. 15, 2017. Now, it has happened within the past month on two occasions. The Kansas City Chiefs (-11) were the only other double-digit favorite in the NFL in Week 13, and they humbled the visiting Oakland Raiders by a 40-9 score at Arrowhead.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Raiders-Chiefs (49.5) and Los Angeles Rams-Arizona Cardinals (47.5), both of which went 'under'. In fact, there were six games listed with totals of 46.5, and just one of those games cashed to the 'over', and that was the New England Patriots-Houston Texans (47) game on Sunday Night Football.

On the flip side, all games with totals closing at 39.5 or less ended up hitting the 'over', sometimes rather easily. In the Thanksgiving Day early game between the Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions (37), we saw third-string QB David Blough get off to a hot start before fizzling at the end. Even so, the teams combined for 44 points and an easy 'over'. In Charlotte, the Redskins-Panthers (39) was expected to a defensive slog with rather choppy offense. However, the Redskins posted a 29-21 win for 50 total points, ending up tied as the second-highest scoring game on Sunday. Not much offense was expected in Sunday's AFC West Division slugfest between the Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos (38.5). It ended up being tied late at 20-20, and a field goal at the buzzer didn't make much difference, as the over was already in the bag.

The Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers (40) was a defensive battle which saw the home side prevail 20-13. If you're scoring at home that's four straight under results for the Yinzers, and the under is 6-1 over their past seven and 9-3 in their 12 games overall, including 2-0 vs. Cleveland this season. In addition, the Steelers are now 6-2-2 ATS across their past 10 games, and they haven't failed against the spread in consecutive weeks since opening with a pair of losses and non-covers.

The 'over' connected in the primetime matchup Sunday against New England Patriots-Houston Texans (47), and is 1-1 for the weekend pending the result of Monday's contest between the Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks. The 'over' is just 14-25 (35.9%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Panthers TE Greg Olsen (concussion) is in the league's mandated concussion protocol after being knocked from Sunday's game vs. Washington.

Looking Ahead -- The Cincinnati Bengals picked up a win in Week 13, assuring them of not becoming the third NFL team to finish with an 0-16 record over a full season. The last team to do it was the 2017 Cleveland Browns, their opponent for Week 14. The Bengals will be on the road at FirstEnergy Stadium, and they're 8-2 ATS across their past 10 away from home. The Browns, meanwhile, are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division, although they failed to cover in a 20-13 win at Pittsburgh in Week 12. The Bengals opened as an eight-point underdog, and they're 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings and 5-0 ATS in the past five trips to Cleveland. As such, they're seeing a lot of early action.

-- The Minnesota Vikings will host the Lions in the second of two divisional meetings. The Vikings pasted the Lions 42-30 at Ford Field back in Week 7, easily covering a 2.5-point number as the 'over' (43.5) came in. The Vikings are an impressive 35-15-1 ATS in the past 51 at home, and 15-7-1 ATS in the past 23 vs. losing sides. The Lions have failed to cover the past four meetings, with the favorite 4-0 ATS in the past four. The under is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings in this series, and 6-0 in the past six battles in the Twin Cities.

-- The Panthers and Falcons do battle for the second time this season, squaring off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Falcons surprised the Panthers 29-3 in Week 11 at Charlotte as 3.5-point underdogs as the 'under' (49) easily connected. The under is 5-1 in the past six for the Falcons, and 10-2-1 in the past 13 in this series, too. Carolina is 0-4 ATS in the past four battles overall, and 5-16-2 ATS in the past 23 trips to Georgia's capital.

-- The Jets and Dolphins meet in New Jersey, and Miami is looking for the season sweep. They're 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings with the Jets, and the under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings at Met Life Stadium.

-- The Seahawks and Rams lock horns in SoCal, with Seattle looking to improve on a 6-1 ATS mark in their past seven on the road. The Rams are 12-5 ATS in the past 17 games overall, and 10-2 ATS in the past 12 vs. NFC foes. In this series the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five, the underdog has hit in four of the past five and the Seahawks are just 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to SoCal. The over is 4-0 in the previous four battles, too.

-- On Monday the New York Giants travel to meet the Eagles, reeling after a shocking loss in Miami. The G-Men are a solid 10-3 ATS in the past 13 on the road, and 7-0 ATS in their past seven on a natural grass surface. While the Eagles are just 4-9 ATS in the past 13 at home, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven overall, they are an impressive 7-3 ATS in the past 10 appearances on MNF. The under is also 7-2 in the past nine meetings at Lincoln Financial Field.

[Udog]

MNF - Vikings at Seahawks
Tony Mejia

Minnesota at Seattle (-3, 50), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

The Rams could’ve folded up shop after last Monday night’s trouncing at the hands of the Ravens. No matter what they say publicly, you know the Vikings were hoping to see Arizona throw a final uppercut on a Sunday and knock the defending NFC champs clean out of the playoff race.

Instead, Jared Goff played one of his best games of the season, Todd Gurley put together another big day and a defense that was embarrassed on national television took its collective frustration out on rookie Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in a 34-7 rout. Minnesota (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) may indeed have to deal with some pressure as it attempts to lock down its third postseason appearance in six years under Mike Zimmer. After last season’s 8-7-1 disappointment, returning to the playoffs has been the first in a series of goals for this veteran group, which is looking to hang with a Packers team that also dominated on Sunday and holds a head-to-head tiebreaker courtesy of their Week 2 win at Lambeau.

Following a 2-2 start that featured disappointing losses to both primary division rivals, the Vikings have won six of seven to match last season’s win total and come off a bye perfectly placed to have them prepared for the stretch run. Guys who were banged up should return with the exception of standout receiver Adam Thielen. With three divisional home games remaining, the team is certainly in control of their own destiny as far as a return to the playoffs is concerned.

Starting tonight, we’re about to see just how good they are. Traveling to Seattle (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) for a primetime date at one of the league’s toughest venues to get out of with a win offers up a great proving ground. It’s not the Vikings’ fault that the Falcons have been unexpectedly terrible or that the Eagles and Cowboys have really taken a tumble, but the fact is that they no longer own a single victory over a team currently above .500, which leads to questions about just how good they are.

Dalvin Cook has looked re-energized and ranked third in the NFL in rushing behind Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey and Cleveland’s Nick Chubb entering the week, amassing 1,017 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, so he’ll be counted on to be the driving force against a Seattle run defense that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since QB Lamar Jackson gashed them in Week 7. Chubb is the lone running back that has topped the century mark against the Seahawks, so if he’s able to get on track, Minnesota could make headway.

The expectation is that Zimmer would love for offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to keep Kirk Cousins in manageable situations on the road, so heavy use of Cook, who has scored in nine of 11 games, and backups Alexander Mattison and Mike Boone, appears likely. The narrative that Cousins is useless in prime time has taken a hit this season since Minnesota is 2-0 under the lights.

Neither of those games have come on Monday night, where Cousins has earned his reputation for coming up short, coming in 0-7 straight up and ATS.

You’ll find plenty of people who will fade Cousins just on that, but considering the point spread here, there are plenty looking at this as a trap line since his Seahawks’ counterpart just happens to be an MVP candidate who is 25-5 in primetime games over his career.

Russell Wilson came in a 7-to-2, well behind Lamar Jackson (1/3) as far as MVP odds at the Westgate Superbook are concerned, so he’d love to serve up a reminder not to write his team off just yet. Seattle will host the 49ers on Dec. 29 to end the season and could still be in position to claim homefield advantage for the entire postseason, which is the position Jackson’s Ravens currently find themselves in. Winning here and looking good will be imperative, but Wilson’s pursuit of an MVP isn’t done yet.

The Seahawks are coming off a 17-9 road win over Philadelphia and have won 18 of 20 primetime games under head coach Pete Carroll. Although both of their losses on the season have come at Century Link Field and they’ve covered only one of five games there this season – in OT – everyone knows how difficult the 12th Man can make life on opposing quarterbacks, which makes this the perfect backdrop for Cousins to shut people up once and for all. Then again, he could sputter and continue to feed the monster, dragging the Vikings down with him since they would still be without a true signature win on the season.

A compelling duel awaits and Mother Nature is going to allow this one to go off without her usual obstacles in the Pacific Northwest. A clear night with no precipitation awaits as showery weather won’t arrive until Tuesday evening, per Accuweather. Legitimately a potential playoff preview, it’s time to see whether Wilson can continue to shine or see Cousins come into his house and leave with a much-needed win. We all like that.

TOTAL TALK

The total for the Week 13 finale opened at 49 and the number has been pushed up to 50 as of Monday morning at most sportsbooks.

The Seahawks and Vikings have both watched the ‘over’ go 6-5 this season but Minnesota has been a great wager to the high side recently, watching the ‘over’ go 5-1 in its last six games. That includes a run of three straight entering this matchup.

Seattle is coming off its best defensive effort on the season in Week 12 as it held to the Eagles to nine points on the road, which helped the ‘under’ (46) connect easily.

Resident totals expert Chris David provides his total thoughts each week on the Friday edition of the ”Bet and Collect” podcast and he focused on this matchup as one of his Best Bets (41:55).

Even though the number has gone up and Minnesota is rolling, he’s not buying the move or the Vikings.

“It’s crazy to realize that Seattle has allowed 29 PPG at home compared to 19.5 PPG on the road,” David said. “That effort has directly attributed to their record as hosts (3-2) and visitors (6-0) this season. Minnesota has had a nice season but its offense has watched its production go from 29 PPG at home to 23 PPG on the road. Fortunately for the Vikings, they’ve got a great defense and the unit is ranked sixth in scoring (18.6 PPG). When you look at those numbers, I believe the total is inflated and we’re going to get a grinder of a game here. Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 off the bye with Mike Zimmer as head coach and it could be 4-1 if it wasn’t for a bad beat last season.

“Another factor having me lean low is based on QB Kirk Cousins for the Vikings. In 20 primetime games, he’s 7-13 in his career and while the 28-24 win at the Dallas Cowboys on SNF in Week 10 was impressive (or was it), I can’t look past the fact that he’s never won on Monday Night Football,” added David. “He’s 0-7 all-time and that includes a 21-7 loss at CenturyLink Field last season in Week 14. With the Seahawks due for a great performance at home, I’ll go déjà vu and play the game ‘under’ (50) and the Vikings Team Total ‘under’ (23) too.”

LINE MOVEMENT

Minnesota Vikings
Projected season win total: 9 (Over -125, Under +105)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 2/1 to 13/10
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 12/1

Seattle Seahawks
Projected season win total: 9 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win NFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 5/2 to 8/5
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 12/1

INJURY CONCERNS

Thielen was expected to be back in the fold for this contest but didn’t board the flight to Seattle and will have to wait until Sunday to try and return from a hamstring injury. The Vikes have been able to survive the past few weeks without him since this will be his fourth absence in five outings but they could have used his services against this aggressive Seahawks’ secondary. Minnesota’s biggest concerns are on defense, where star safeties Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris joined DT Linval Joseph in wearing ‘questionable’ tags. They were limited in practices but should go, while LB Ben Gedeon tried to battle back from a concussion but isn’t expected to be cleared.

The Seahawks are hoping to have DE Jadeveon Clowney back after he missed a game due to a core injury and should have DTs Jarran Reed and Al Woods back from ankle injuries, which could spell trouble for Cousins. LB Mychal Kendricks and tight end Luke Willson are expected to be game-time decisions as they look to return from hamstring injuries. Backup safety Neiko Thorpe and fullback Nick Bellore, both key special-teamers, are listed as doubtful.

RECENT MEETINGS
(Seahawks 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS last seven, OVER 4-3)

12/10/18 Seahawks 21-7 vs. Vikings (SEA -3, 45.5)
12/6/15 Seahawks 38-7 at Vikings (SEA -1.5, 42)
11/17/13 Seahawks 41-20 vs. Vikings (SEA -13, 45)
11/4/12 Seahawks 30-20 vs. Vikings (SEA -4, 38.5)
11/22/09 Vikings 35-9 vs. Seahawks (MIN -11, 47)
10/22/06 Vikings 31-13 at Seahawks (MIN +7, 40.5)
12/12/04 Seahawks 27-23 at Vikings (SEA +6.5, 54)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 14 currently has the Seahawks as a 3-point road underdog in L.A. as they try to close out the Rams’ dim playoff hopes. The Vikings would welcome some help from Seattle as they look to close in on wrapping up the No. 6 seed and will be favored at home against the Lions. No line was placed on that game yet due to question marks over the availability of QBs Matthew Stafford and Jeff Driskel. Rookie David Blough started for Detroit on Thanksgiving.