Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[StarDust Bum]

Packers down Bears, 10-3 in opener
September 5, 2019
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CHICAGO (AP) The Monsters of the Midway showed up for the NFL's season opener. They were wearing gold, green and white.

In a defensive battle also marked by sloppy offense and penalties, the Packers used the Bears' usual trademark, a staunch D, and just enough from Aaron Rodgers on Thursday night to kick off the league's 100th season with a 10-3 victory over their archrivals.

A lack of action in the preseason clearly damaged both offenses, and Rodgers at times looked uncomfortable in the attack designed by new coach Matt LaFleur. But he is a two-time league MVP, and he hit Jimmy Graham for the game's only touchdown in the second quarter.

From there, it was an aggressive defense that would have made Vince Lombardi proud in the latest edition of the NFL's longest rivalry, which the Packers lead 98-95-6. Green Bay has won 16 of the last 19 regular-season meetings, and Rodgers is 17-5.

Chicago's defense hardly slacked, getting five sacks - tying the most it has had against Rodgers. But it could do little with the ball and the Packers had five sacks of Mitchell Trubisky, who never found his stride. Former Bears safety Adrian Amos picked off an end-zone pass into double coverage with 1:58 remaining, the only turnover of the contest.

Mason Crosby made a 39-yard field goal in the final period for Green Bay, while defending NFC North champion Chicago got a 38-yarder from Eddy Pineiro.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, September 8, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Los Angeles Rams Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM Kansas City Chiefs Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills New York Jets
1:00 PM Washington Redskins Philadelphia Eagles
4:05 PM Indianapolis Colts Los Angeles Chargers
4:05 PM Cincinnati Bengals Seattle Seahawks
4:25 PM Detroit Lions Arizona Cardinals
4:25 PM New York Giants Dallas Cowboys
4:25 PM San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8:20 PM Pittsburgh Steelers New England Patriots


***********************************


NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/05/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


Totals...............1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


*****************************


BEST BETS:


DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50


Totals......................0 - 1............-5.50...............1 - 0 ..............+5.00..............-0.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

— Packers 10, Bears 3— Chicago faces its old DC Fangio next week in Denver.

— Twins 2, Red Sox 1— LF Rosario threw out tying run at plate to end the game.

— A’s 10, Angels 6— Oakland scored seven runs in 7th inning.

— Cubs 10, Brewers 5— Zobrist reached base five times in his 2nd game since May.

— Rays 6, Blue Jays 4— Attendance at the Trop for contending Rays: 5,962

— Astros 11, Mariners 9 (13)— Brantley hit a walk-off homer. Seattle led 5-0 in first inning but couldn’t get the win.

Tweet of the Day
“I wouldn’t take Mike Mayock to serious either for the simple fact he had the nerves to rank 5 guys higher then me coming out the draft. And we all know how that worked out………”
Saints’ WR Mike Thomas

Friday’s quiz
Where did Mitchell Trubisky play his college football?

Thursday’s quiz
Adrian Peterson is the only active NFL player who has been the NFL MVP but isn’t a QB.

Wednesday’s quiz
Antonio Brown played his college football at Central Michigan.

*****************************

Friday’s extra List of 13: Quick NFL knowledge…….

13) Buffalo Bills made the playoffs in 2017, for the first time since 1999; then they cut that year’s QB, Tyrod Taylor, and slumped to 6-10 last year. Taylor is now Philip Rivers’ backup with the Chargers.

12) Nick Foles has never started more than 11 games in an NFL season.

11) In five years coaching the Redskins, Jay Gruden is 35-44-1, 0-1 in playoffs; since 2006, Washington is 0-3 in playoff games- their last playoff win was under Joe Gibbs, in ’05.

10) John Harbaugh with the Ravens:
— First five years: 54-26, 9-4 playoffs
— Last six years: 49-47, 1-2 playoffs

9) Last eight years, Tennessee Titans are 5-17-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 or fewer points.

8) Since 2010, Dallas Cowboys are 17-34-1 ATS as a home favorite. Over last decade, the underdog is 90-63-4 (58.8%) in Cowboy games.

7) Over last 20 years, Detroit Lions are 0-4 in playoff games; the last four years, Detroit is 4-10 ATS as a home underdog.

6) Cleveland Browns are 1-18-1 SU in Week 1 games, 0-5 ATS when favored; they tied the Steelers LY (+3.5).

5) Houston Texans won last four season openers, scoring 30+ points in all four games.

4) Since 2015, Denver Broncos are 5-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.

3) Last six years, Atlanta Falcons are 14-24 ATS as a home favorite.

2) Since 2012, Seattle Seahawks are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs; Seattle made playoffs six of last seven years, and went 9-7 the other year.

1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl after the 2002 season; they’re 0-2 in playoff games since then, and are 55-105 since Jon Gruden left town, with no playoff appearances

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Falcons at Vikings (-4/47), 1 p.m. ET: Running back Dalvin Cook’s return to full strength will be the x-factor set to separate the Vikings from the elite team they were in 2017 (13-3) and the mediocre 8-7-1 unit they were last year. Although he only played in four games as a rookie before tearing his ACL and got into 10 last season, he’s showing off the burst that he brought into the league and should give the offense the boost it was missing in scoring just 10 or fewer points in three of the last five. Receiver Stefon Diggs missed practice earlier in the week but is expected to play through a hamstring issue. Corner Mike Hughes, who shined as a rookie, is coming off a knee injury and may be the only player not ready to go in this opener.

Atlanta is mostly healthy too, but may have to start a rookie at right tackle in late first-round pick Kaleb McGary, who dealt with an injury in camp, so it is dealing with uncertainty up front. WR Julio Jones is expected to play despite his contract situation remaining unsettled. The Falcons lost four of their first five last season and have never defeated Minnesota in September, losing all eight all-time meetings. The Vikings went just 5-3 SU (4-3-1 ATS) at home last season after putting together a 9-1 run (7-3 ATS) spanning the end of the US Bank Stadium’s first season and its second.

Redskins at Eagles (-10/45), 1 p.m. ET: Carson Wentz will play in his first game since being shelved last December and didn’t get in during the preseason. Per Philly observers, he’s looked sharp in joint practices and looks noticeably leaner, losing the brace he was playing with to help protect him last season after his ACL surgery. He’ll have two new running backs to hand off to with Bears import Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders taking over. New deep threat Desean Jackson has returned to Eagles nation and is expected to play after dealing with a hand issue late in the preseason.

Colt McCoy was the frontrunner to start this one when camp began but couldn’t get on the field to prepare and is still strengthening his leg. Case Keenum gets the nod and will work with a receiving corps featuring four players whose next catch will be their first as pros. Paul Richardson and rookie third-round pick Terry McLaurin are expected to be his top targets at wideout. Tight end Jordan Reed should play despite coming off a concussion. Derrius Guice won the running back job over Adrian Peterson, but both are worse off for tackle Trent Williams’ continued holdout. Philadelphia has won the last four meetings between these NFC East rivals, capturing each by double-digits.

Bills at Jets (-3/41.5), 1 p.m. ET: Sam Darnold and Josh Allen will be tied together as long as they’re at the helm for their respective teams. They were the second and third quarterbacks taken behind Baker Mayfield in the 2018 draft and started against one another in Week 14 last December. Darnold picked up the win while Allen ran for over 100 yards and threw for more than 200. Combined, they threw three picks. Since both teams were going nowhere 10 months ago, this contest will have a completely different feel as the season opener.

The Adam Gase era begins against a Greg McDermott’s Bills, who beat Miami in three of four head-to-head meetings over the past two seasons but stunningly cut LeSean McCoy in the preseason, moving forward with veterans Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon in addition to rookie Devin Singletary. Le’Veon Bell joining the Jets is even bigger news that Gase’s hiring and should further aid Darnold’s progression. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these teams, cashing in each of the last three games.

Ravens (-6.5/39.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET: Baltimore has won its last three season openers under John Harbaugh by a combined score of 80-10 and has produced victories in eight of 11 under their long-tenured head coach. Flacco started every one of those, capturing the first as a rookie, but he’s set to debut under center for the Broncos on Monday night.

South Florida native Lamar Jackson looks to improve on a 6-1 regular-season record as the Ravens’ starter and will look to ruin Brian Flores’ coaching debut with the Dolphins. Miami’s personnel moves point to it tanking for Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa this season, and that includes riding with veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick over Josh Rosen. RB Kenyan Drake is expected to get a lot of touches after being cleared from a foot injury that has bothered him the past few weeks. After dealing star left tackle Laremy Tunsil, Julien Davenport is likely to replace him on Miami’s new-look offensive line. The Ravens will have everyone on the roster available so long as rookie WR “Hollywood” Brown plays through a foot issue. This is a homecoming game for him too.

Chiefs (-3.5/51.5) at Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET: Kansas City WR Tyreek Hill avoided suspension and now gets another matchup with Jalen Ramsey, who called him a “return specialist” last season and held him to just four catches and 61 yards when they matched up for the first time last season. Ramsey is expected to shadow him throughout the field, so reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes should have the option to again feature Travis Kelce and take new toy LeSean McCoy out for a spin.

Jacksonville lost at Arrowhead 30-14 last Oct. 7 in a game where former starter Blake Bortles was intercepted four times. Former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles was acquired in the offseason and looks to pull off a home upset to set the tone for a big year. After limited action in the preseason, we’ll finally get to see him debut despite abdominal soreness. Left tackle Cam Robinson (knee) and his backup, Cedric Ogbuehi (hamstring), appeared on this week’s injury report. The Chiefs are 5-1 in openers under Andy Reid, winning the last four. Four of those victories have come on the road, including the very first, a 28-2 rout in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have lost their last four matchups against Kansas City, last winning in 2009.

Titans at Browns (-5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET: Baker Mayfield looks to build on a spectacular rookie season by helping the Browns open a season with a victory for the first time 2004 after watching last season’s 20-20 tie against Pittsburgh as Tyrod Taylor’s backup in his debut. A lot has transpired over the past 12 months and new weapons Odell Beckham, Jr. and Kareem Hunt will be deployed here to try and help Mayfield move the ball against one of the NFL’s most talented secondaries. ODB is reportedly still dealing with a hip issue but should debut for the Browns. Safeties Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro could ruin the party in Cleveland, where its team being favored at home was news less than a year ago.

Marcus Mariota held off the charge of the newly acquired Ryan Tannehill and has a new coordinator calling the shots with Arthur Smith replacing current Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. The game plan is expected to be heavy on ball control and running back, who broke out as a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time, scoring 12 touchdowns. He’ll be running behind a line that will have tackle Jack Conklin in the mix but could be without projected starting right guard Kevin Pamphile.

Rams (-1.5/50) at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET: Cam Newton has come through shoulder surgery and feels he’s sufficiently healed from a foot injury suffered in the third preseason game, so the Panthers’ offense should have some bite since he’ll be able to throw the ball downfield for a change. TE Greg Olson is also healthy, WR Curtis Samuel is expected to take a step forward and Christian McCaffrey emerged as one of the league’s best weapons, so Norv Turner has plenty to work with as he looks to match wits with Sean McVay.

The Rams gave Jared Goff $110 million guaranteed this past week, extending him in the hopes he’ll have more productive Super Bowls ahead of him. Todd Gurley, whose lack of involvement in the most recent NFL title game due to a knee injury was glaring, isn’t going to be on a pitch count as he attempts to pick up where he left off pre-injury. Carolina has won four of its past five season openers. The Rams went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) on the road last season.

Bengals at Seahawks (-9.5/44), 4:05 p.m. ET: With A.J. Green out for at least another month, the Bengals have had to install new head coach Zac Taylor’s offense with key receivers sidelined. The expectation is that they’ll unveil elements of his up-tempo offense that should feature backs Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard and Samaje Perine. Undrafted rookie Damion Willis will fill in for Green opposite Tyler Boyd and top tackle Cordy Glenn could be sidelined with a concussion that would make an already unstable offensive line situation even worse.

Pete Carroll hasn’t gotten enough credit for rebuilding Seattle’s defense on the run the way he has, but they’ll be tested to start the season with games against the Steelers, Saints, Rams and Browns. We’ll see whether newcomers like Jadeveon Clowney, Ziggy Ansah, Al Woods and rookies L.J. Collier and Marquise Blair hit the ground running. Offensively, Russell Wilson has a new red-zone weapon in second-round pick D.K. Metcalf. The Seahawks have won 10 straight home openers, the last nine under Carroll, and have given up 16 or fewer points in all of them.

Colts at Chargers (-6.5/44.5), 4:05 p.m. ET: The Colts were just a three-point underdog when this line was released and Andrew Luck’s inclusion was still expected. After announcing his retirement, L.A. became a much heavier favorite despite the increasing likelihood that star RB Melvin Gordon wouldn’t be involved either. Still holding out and likely to be traded, Gordon will be absent as Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson try to replicate his production.

Indianapolis won’t find it as simple to replace Luck, although Jacoby Brissett has plenty of experience doing so after starting most of 2017. The Colts went 4-11 with him as the starter and saw him complete just two passes for two yards last season, but they’re hopeful that he can help salvage the season. Another former Pats backup, Brian Hoyer, will be the No. 2. The Chargers are 10-6 SU (6-10 ATS) at the Stub Hub Center, struggling to find a true homefield advantage in a building where opposing fans often outnumber those rooting for L.A. This will be the Colts’ first visit to this stadium after losing three of four in San Diego over the past 15 years.

49ers at Bucs (-1.5/50.5), 4:05 p.m. ET: Jimmy Garoppolo had a miserable preseason, both in games he played and in practices where he battled turnover issues. Coming off a torn ACL, he’s having trouble getting his timing back and could have a difficult time getting settled in if the Bucs are able to get after him as Todd Bowles debuts as Bruce Arians’ defensive coordinator. Rookie top pick Devin White debuts next to Lavonte David, who has been cleared to play after a knee issue.

Last year’s first-rounder, Vita Vea, also practiced in full. The 49ers will have center Weston Richburg available in addition to Joe Staley up front, but their defense could have issues in the back with Jimmie Ward (hand), Jason Verrett (ankle) and K’Waun Williams (knee) all questionable. No. 2 overall pick Nick Bosa is likely to debut as a third-down pass rusher despite being sidelined for weeks by a high ankle sprain. Since losing his first start, Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston has won three straight openers.

Lions (-2.5/46) at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET: For months, we’ve heard all about the Cardinals working in secret to get top pick Kyler Murray up to speed running Kliff Kingsbury’s high-octane offense. Can a college offense flourish in the NFL? Unsurprisingly, Kingsbury didn’t divulge much during the preseason, putting together vanilla game plans and essentially hiding how far along Arizona really is in installing his concepts in Year 1 of a very interesting experiment. The Lions open their second season under former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who has had months to decipher what might be coming in Glendale on Sunday by combing through Texas Tech and Oklahoma film. It’s certainly not ideal, but he should be prepared for what should be a chess match.

The Lions added Arizona training camp backup QB Charles Kanoff to their practice squad, hoping to seek further insight into what might be coming. Lions standout linebacker Jarrad Davis is questionable with an ankle injury while Arizona could be without LB Hassan Riddick. Cards’ right tackle Marcus Gilbert and Detroit center Frank Ragnow are expected to play through lower body injuries. If Matthew Stafford is coaxed into a shootout, he’ll be working against a secondary missing top corners Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (broken leg).

Giants at Cowboys (-7/45.5), 4:25 p.m. ET: Ezekiel Elliott probably won’t see his usual workload after just returning this week after signing a six-year $90 million extension, but he’ll start and is expected to have enough juice to help Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper fuel Dallas’ offense. Jason Witten is making his return to the NFL and Randall Cobb debuts. It remains to be seen how everything comes together since there hasn’t been much time devoted to working as a unit given Elliott’s holdout and Cooper’s heel injury. The Cowboys defense also has a few question with Robert Quinn suspended and Randy Gregory still not reinstated. New York will have Eli Manning at the controls for at least one more season opener as it looks to turn the page from the Odell era.

The Giants have dropped seven of their last eight openers and have dropped nine of 12 against the Cowboys, including four in succession. New York has won only one of its last six at AT&T Stadium, winning in Week 1 of 2016 thanks to a late TD pass from Manning to the now-retired Victor Cruz. We’ll see whether New York has solved its offensive line woes. It should help matters that new right tackle Mike Remmers (illness) is expected to play next to new right guard Kevin Zeitler.

Steelers at Patriots (-5.5/49.5), 8:20 p.m. ET: Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger will both be Hall of Famers and have eight Super Bowl wins between them but there’s an obvious pecking order that has really shone through in Foxboro. Although Pittsburgh won last season’s meeting in Week 15 last December, Brady has won all five games he’s played in against the Steelers at Gillette Stadium, throwing 18 touchdowns without being intercepted.

The 42-year-old Brady led New England to a 28-21 win over Pittsburgh in Week 1 of the ’15 season and has won three of his last four openers. He’ll have Demariyus Thomas as a target in addition to the recently reinstated Josh Gordon but Julian Edelman should remain his security blanket with Rob Gronkowski gone. Roethlisberger is expected to ride with Juju Smith-Schuster as his go-to with the trifling Antonio Brown causing headaches with the Raiders. With James Conner back, expect Pittsburgh to try and shorten the game by running the ball and attempting to control time of possession.

Brady should be able to excel through the air by picking on the fact the Steelers will have to start an inexperienced free safety in AAF product Kameron Kelly, who should start with Sean Davis unlikely to return from an ankle injury.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 1
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0-1 ATS (7.59 ppg) since Nov 02, 2008 as a home favorite when the game total is at least 46.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-10 ATS (14.0 ppg) since 2008 in season opening games when the total is under 55.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (7.00 ppg) since Oct 12, 2015 as a dog facing a team Ben Roethlisberger threw at least 2 touchdowns against last meeting.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams in week 1 with 4 or fewer losses (including playoffs) last season are 38-49-1 ATS. Active against LA Rams and New Orleans.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Lions are 8-0 OU (10.38 ppg) since Sep 09, 2007 in the first game of the season.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Jets are 0-7 OU (-8.57 ppg) since Sep 15, 1991 at home when the total is over 40 with a Monday night game next.

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 1
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Falcons at Vikings (-3 ½, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Following consecutive playoff appearances which included the greatest Super Bowl meltdown of all-time, the Falcons slipped to 7-9 in 2018 and missed the postseason. Atlanta started 1-4 and could never break the .500 mark, while owning one of the worst ATS marks in the league by covering only five games. The Falcons didn’t defeat a single team that made the playoffs, but managed to win their final two road contests of the season at Carolina and Tampa Bay.

The Vikings took a step back following an NFC championship appearance in 2017 as Minnesota posted an 8-7-1 record last season. Kirk Cousins threw for 4,298 yards and 30 touchdowns in his first season with the Vikings, but the running game struggled following rookie Dalvin Cook’s ACL injury in Week 9. Minnesota won seven of eight home contests in 2017, but fell to 5-3 at U.S. Bank Stadium in 2018, while hitting the UNDER in six of eight home games last season.

This series has been owned by the Vikings the last few seasons as Minnesota has claimed all three meetings since 2014. However, the Vikings were listed as underdogs in all three victories, including in a 14-9 triumph in 2017 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium as two-point ‘dogs. Minnesota is hosting Atlanta for the first time since 2014, as the Vikings won 41-28 at TCF Bank Stadium on the campus of the University of Minnesota.

Best Bet: Falcons 21, Vikings 16

Rams (-2 ½, 50) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST

The last four NFC champions have not returned to the Super Bowl, as Los Angeles looks to buck that trend this season. The Rams are coming off a 13-3 campaign, capped off by their second straight NFC West championship. Los Angeles won six of eight games away from the Coliseum, while owning a solid 13-3 mark on the highway under head coach Sean McVay. Following a 3-0 ATS start in 2018, the Rams slipped to 2-8-1 ATS in the next 11 games before covering four straight games, including the controversial NFC title win at New Orleans.

The Panthers were on their way to the playoffs after a fast 6-2 start, but Carolina fell on hard times by losing seven consecutive games before a victory in the season finale to finish 7-9. Carolina lost four games by six points or less during that dreadful stretch, including home setbacks to Seattle and New Orleans by three points each. The Panthers have fared well in openers the last few seasons by putting together a 4-1 SU/ATS record in Week 1 since 2014, while winning five straight home openers.

These two old division rivals haven’t seen much of each other recently with only three matchups since 2010. The Panthers edged the Rams, 13-10 at the Coliseum in 2016, while L.A. is making its first trip to Charlotte since 2013 in a 30-15 setback. Since McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams own a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record in games played in the Eastern Time Zone, including a 30-16 victory at Detroit last season.

Best Bet: Rams 27, Panthers 23

Giants at Cowboys (-7, 45 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

The ongoing drama during the preseason regarding the contract status of Cowboys’ running back Ezekiel Elliott finally came to end just in time before the season opener. The former Ohio State standout agreed to a six-year, $90 million extension after sitting out the preseason as he will suit in Week 1. The Cowboys overcame a 3-5 start in 2018 to win seven of their final eight games to clinch the NFC East title. Although Dallas was knocked out by Los Angeles in the divisional playoffs, the Cowboys closed last season by compiling an 8-1 record at AT&T Stadium, which included the two-point Wild Card win over Seattle.

The Giants selected Duke’s Daniel Jones with their top pick in the draft to be the heir apparent to veteran Eli Manning under center. However, Jones will remain Manning’s backup to start the season as the Giants try to avoid their third consecutive last-place finish in the NFC East. New York finished 5-11 in 2018, but the Giants were a quality team to back away from Met Life Stadium as they compiled a 7-1 ATS mark on the road.

The lone ATS setback on the highway for the Giants in 2018 came at Dallas in a 20-13 defeat as three-point underdogs in Week 2. The Cowboys swept the Giants for the second consecutive season, while the past three matchups in Arlington have finished UNDER the total. New York is seeking its first win at Dallas since the 2016 opener when the Giants edged the Cowboys, 20-19 in Dak Prescott’s debut.

BEST TOTAL PLAY – (11-6 in 2018)

Under 50 ½ - Chiefs at Jaguars

Kansas City’s offense was the best in the league last season behind Patrick Mahomes and his 50 touchdown passes. The Chiefs head to Jacksonville to face the re-tooled Jaguars, who have more confidence in the quarterback position after signing with former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. However, Foles didn’t play much in the preseason and takes over an offense that scored 16 points or less in five home games last season. The Chiefs created five turnovers in a 30-14 blowout of the Jaguars last season at Arrowhead, while their road defensive numbers weren’t great but faced the likes of the Chargers, Steelers, Seahawks, Patriots, and Rams (who all ranked in the top eight in offense in the NFL).

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The pressure on the Cleveland Browns will be enormous this season following all the hype in the offseason. The Browns made drastic improvements last season by hanging around the playoff race nearly to the end, while winning seven games following a 1-31 stretch from 2016-17. The Titans finished with a better record than the Browns last season, while posting a perfect 3-0 ATS mark as a road underdog of four points or more. Cleveland closed as a favorite of more than a field goal once in 2018 as the Browns failed to cover in a 26-18 win as 10-point chalk against the Bengals (Browns did lead 26-3 late in fourth).

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

To no one’s surprise, the Colts moved from a 3 ½-point underdog against the Chargers when lines were released at the Westgate Superbook in April all the way up to 6 ½. Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement after the preseason jacked that line in Los Angeles’ favor as the Colts will turn to Jacoby Brissett for the season at quarterback. The positive sign for the Colts is they face a Chargers’ squad that posted a 2-5-1 ATS mark as a home favorite last season.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Eight teams feature new head coaches this season, including six men coaching their first ever regular season game. Last season, all six coaches in their team debuts lost (Chicago’s Matt Nagy, Detroit’s Matt Patricia, Indianapolis’ Frank Reich, New York’s Pat Shurmur, Oakland’s Jon Gruden, Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel). Three of those teams lost as a home underdog (Giants, Colts, Raiders), as the Cardinals and Dolphins both fall in that position in Week 1. This trend has been temporarily bucked by the Packers, as new head coach Matt LaFleur picked up his first win in Thursday’s 10-3 victory at Chicago.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Top six picks for Week 1 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Panthers +2.5, 845

5) Broncos even, 856

4) Buccaneers even, 862

3) Texans +7, 904

2) Colts +6.5, 1,052

1) Ravens -6.5, 1,080

[Udog]

SNF - Steelers at Patriots
Matt Blunt

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Betting Odds: New England -5.5, Total 49

Last Five Head-to-Head Meetings:

Dec. 16, 2018 - Pittsburgh 17 vs. New England 10 (Steelers +2.5, Under 55.5)
Dec. 17, 2017 - New England 27 at Pittsburgh 24 (Patriots -2.5, Under 52.5)
Jan. 22, 2017 - New England 36 vs. Pittsburgh 17 (Patriots -6, Over 49.5)
Oct. 23, 2016 - New England 27 at Pittsburgh 16 (Patriots - 7, Under 49)
Sept. 10, 2015 - New England 28 vs. Pittsburgh 21 (Patriots -7, Under 51)

There might be some big names gone from what's become an annual game between the Steelers and Patriots on Sunday night, but that doesn't mean the first SNF game of the season won't be a good one. There won't be LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, or Rob Gronkowski involved on the field in this contest – the 5th straight year these two have met in the regular season – as it's a year of reloading and redefining their identity for both New England and Pittsburgh.

There is still plenty of talent on both sidelines, and in another year where both have their sights set on division titles and more accolades from there, owning the head-to-head tiebreaker could prove to be important by the time Santa is snooping around our chimneys. But we are a long ways away from that entering the conversation, as now it's all about whether or not the Patriots can win this game by about a TD.

With this year being the 100th anniversary of the NFL, the usual spot on TNF to open up a new campaign for the defending champs was pushed back to give the longest rivalry (Green Bay/Chicago) in the league the spotlight on opening night. And while that game wasn't all that aesthetically pleasing, it was expected given that starters on both sides had next to nothing in terms of preseason action and were working out plenty of kinks on TNF. That's something to keep in mind as you go through the entire Week 1 card, but for this SNF game we should get a much better overall brand of football.

Total Talk

History suggests that we will in the sense that over the past eight years, Week 1 SNF games are 6-2 O/U with an average of 48.25 points scored. One of those two 'unders' against the closing number came in the 2016 year when the Patriots opened up in Arizona on SNF with Jimmy Garoppolo under center while Brady served his suspension. There weren't many believers in the Patriots that day, but the 'under' also only came in by the hook, so there is a case to be made that these Week 1 prime time games tend to be a swoon for 'over' bettors.

That hasn't been the case according to the market this week as action has been hot and heavy on the 'under' for weeks now after this game originally opened up at 51.5. Obviously missing all those big name playmakers as “known” entities plays a part in that, but both franchises are likely looking for more of a defensive identity as it is.

Betting percentages currently show a strong 80+% of bets on this 'under' so far, and that historical average of 48.25 points for Week 1 SNF games would still cash an 'under' ticket at the current number. However, if you break down that set of eight games that have opened up the SNF season in the past to just the non-division matchups – remember, with the defending champs typically getting the TNF showcase, SNF was reserved for divisional rivalries, this year that's flipped – the O/U mark is 3-1 O/U with that lone being the Garoppolo start vs Arizona that lost by the hook. The Average points scored there clocks in at exactly 50 points per game, which puts this current line of 49 right in the cross hairs of history.

Side Spiel

Regarding the side, the spread has seen about a 55/45 split in favor of New England, as the number keeps bouncing around between -5.5 and -6. That type of two-way action is what oddsmakers prefer to see, and until we get to see what these revamped identities for both teams start to look like, it's hard to confidently side with either group in this spot.

Bettors on the Steelers side of things are looking at a possible “addition by subtraction” scenario this year with the distractions of Bell and Brown being gone, as the less off-field stuff that a football team has to answer to each week is never a bad thing. The Steelers seemed to survive on the field without Bell last year as they remain high on Conner and the rest of their RB core, but the production lost from Brown's departure will have to be made up somewhere, and that's a lot to put on the shoulders of young guys like JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington who find themselves in prominent roles this year.

From a Patriots backer perspective, relying on the known entity of the Brady/Belichick duo is a big part of why someone would lay these points, even with New England being a slow starter both SU and ATS traditionally these past few years. Brady's another year older at 42 years old, and with his security blanket in Gronk now retired, things will look a bit different. But it's not like Brady hasn't played well (or often) when the oft-injured Gronk wasn't on the field, and that could easily be the case for New England this season too.

The Patriots side also has the backing of history in terms of what defending champions have done the following year out of the gate, but Pittsburgh is a quality foe where six points does have the look of a number that could potentially be too high.

Final Feelings

Cases for and against each side are rather easy to make, and the ones for each side tend to lack conviction, so the spread is one that's probably best to pass on for the week. Openers of -5.5 tend to bring some indecision from an oddsmaking perspective as well in that that spread resides in no man's land and is placed with the intention of moving. The fact that this line has essentially stayed in that range for months suggests that there is plenty of indecision from an overall betting perspective too.

The total is one where I believe the better betting option lies, and while it is hard to ignore the respective move down, the 'over' between these two teams is where I'm going.

Both QB's are vets that have seen it all in this league, and with months of prep time already completed, the questions that bettors may have about new faces in prominent roles on both sides, is probably just flat out confidence from Brady and Roethlisberger's perspective. Getting to 50 points isn't a huge ask for these two teams, and given the initial negative feedback from TNF about it being a sloppy, non-entertaining game, I'm sure the NFL wouldn't mind to have it's next prime time showcase of the year turn into a back-and-forth shootout.

As long as the total stays below 50, 'over' should be the way to go.

Best Bet: Over 49 points

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at MIN 01:00 PM
ATL +3.5
U 47.0

LAR at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR +1.5
U 50.0

TEN at CLE 01:00 PM
TEN +5.5
O 45.0

KC at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC +3.5
O 51.0

WAS at PHI 01:00 PM
WAS +10.5
O 44.5

BUF at NYJ 01:00 PM
BUF +2.5
O 40.5

BAL at MIA 01:00 PM
BAL -7.0
U 40.0


BACK IN A FEW WITH AFTERNOON GAMES

[StarDust Bum]

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES;

CIN at SEA 04:05 PM
SEA -10.0
U 44.0

IND at LAC 04:05 PM
IND +6.5
O 44.5

SF at TB 04:25 PM
SF +1.0
U 51.0

NYG at DAL 04:25 PM
NYG +7.5
O 45.5

DET at ARI 04:25 PM
DET -2.5
U 46.0

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:

PIT at NE 08:20 PM

NE -5.5

U 49.0

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 1
September 8, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Sept. 9

Houston at New Orleans, 7:10 p.m. The Texans have won three of the past four AFC South titles. J.J. Watt led the AFC with 16 sacks and had a career-high seven forced fumbles in 2018. Deshaun Watson had 4,165 yards and 26 TDs passing. The Saints were the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs in 2018, and lost to the L.A. Rams in the NFC title game marred by NFL-acknowledged officiating mistakes.

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Denver at Oakland, 10:20 p.m. Joe Flacco makes his Denver debut as the Broncos head to Oakland for the final time in the regular season before the Raiders move to Las Vegas in 2020. The Raiders enter the game after a drama-filled week involving wide receiver Antonio Brown, who was released on Saturday and later signed with the New England Patriots.

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STARS

Passing

- Lamar Jackson, Ravens, was 17 for 20 for 324 yards and five touchdown passes and a perfect 158.3 rating in Baltimore's 59-10 rout of Miami.

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, finished 25 for 33 for 378 yards and three touchdowns in Kansas City's 40-26 win over Jacksonville.

- Dak Prescott, Cowboys, was 25 for 32 for 405 yards and a career high-tying four touchdown passes in Dallas' 35-17 win over the New York Giants. He also had a perfect passer rating.

- Carson Wentz, Eagles, was 28 for 39 for 313 yards and three touchdowns in Philadelphia's 32-27 win over Washington.

- Andy Dalton, Bengals, finished 35 for 51 for a career-high 418 yards and two touchdown passes in Cincinnati's 21-20 loss to Seattle.

- Matthew Stafford, Lions, was 27 for 45 for 385 yards and three touchdown passes in Detroit's 27-27 tie with Arizona.

- Case Keenum, Redskins, finished 30 for 44 for 380 yards and three touchdowns in Washington's 32-27 loss to Philadelphia.

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Rushing

- Marlon Mack, Colts, had 25 carries for 174 yards and a touchdown in Indianapolis' 30-24 overtime loss to the L.A. Chargers.

- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, had 19 carries for 128 yards and two touchdowns in Carolina's 30-27 loss to the L.A. Rams.

- Dalvin Cook, Vikings, finished with 21 carries for 111 yards and two touchdowns in Minnesota's 28-12 victory over Atlanta.

- Mark Ingram, Ravens, had 14 carries for 107 yards and two touchdowns in Baltimore's 59-10 win over Miami.

- Saquon Barkley, Giants, had 11 carries for 120 yards in New York's 35-17 loss to Dallas.

- Austin Ekeler, Chargers, had 12 carries for 58 yards and the winning touchdown in overtime, and added six receptions for 96 yards and two touchdowns as Los Angeles topped Indianapolis 30-24.

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Receiving

- Sammy Watkins, Chiefs, had nine receptions for 198 yards and touchdowns of 68, 49 and 3 yards in Kansas City's 40-26 win over Jacksonville.

- DeSean Jackson, Eagles, finished with eight catches for 154 yards and two touchdowns in Philadelphia's 32-27 win over Washington. Jackson's touchdowns covered 51 and 53 yards and gave him 31 TDs of at least 50 yards in his career. Only Hall of Famer Jerry Rice had more at 36.

- Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, Ravens. First-round pick Brown had four catches for 147 yards and touchdowns of 47 and 83 yards, and Andrews had eight catches for 108 yards and a touchdown in Baltimore's 59-10 win over Miami.

- D.J. Chark, Jaguars, had four receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown in Jacksonville's 40-26 loss Kansas City.

- Terry McLaurin, Redskins, had five catches for 125 yards and a touchdown in Washington's 32-27 loss to Philadelphia.

- Michael Gallup, Cowboys, had seven catches for 158 yards in Dallas' 35-17 win over the N.Y. Giants.

- John Ross, Bengals, had seven catches for 158 yards and two touchdowns in Cincinnati's 21-20 loss to Seattle.

- Keenan Allen, Chargers, had eight catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in Los Angeles' 30-24 overtime win over Indianapolis.

- John Brown, Bills, had seven catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in Buffalo's 17-16 win over the Jets.

- Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, had eight catches for 113 yards and a touchdown in Arizona's 27-27 tie with Detroit. He surpassed Antonio Gates (116 TDs) for the sixth most in NFL history.

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Special Teams

- Harrison Butker, Chiefs, was 4 for 4 on field goals and extra points in Kansas City's 40-26 win over Jacksonville.

- Zane Gonzalez, Cardinals, was 4 for 4 on field goals in Arizona's 27-27 tie with Detroit.

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Defense

- C.J. Mosley and Jordan Jenkins, Jets. Mosley returned an interception 17 yards for a touchdown and Jenkins tackled Frank Gore in the end zone for a safety in a 17-16 loss to Buffalo.

- Cameron Wake and Malcolm Butler, Titans. Wake had 2+ sacks, including a safety, and Butler returned an interception 38 yards for touchdown in Tennessee's 43-13 win over Cleveland.

- Richard Sherman and Ahkello Witherspoon, 49ers. Sherman returned an interception 31 yards for a touchdown and Witherspoon returned an interception 25 yards for a touchdown in San Francisco's 31-17 win over Tampa Bay.

- Devon Kennard, Lions, had three sacks in Detroit's 27-27 tie with Arizona.

- Vernon Hargreaves, Buccaneers, returned an interception 15 yards for a touchdown in Tampa Bay's 31-17 loss to San Francisco.

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MILESTONES

Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald became the franchise's leader in regular-season games played with 235. He broke the record set by kicker Jim Bakken. ... Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones became the second-fastest player to reach 700 receptions as he did it in his 112th game. ... The Jets' Le'Veon Bell became the fastest player in NFL history to get 8,000 yards from scrimmage for his career. He reached the milestone with a 5-yard run, his first carry for New York in the first quarter of his 63rd game. The 27-year-old Bell entered the game with 7,996 yards from scrimmage.

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PURPLE REIGN

The Ravens blasted the Dolphins 59-10 and set several team records in the process. They set a franchise record for points in the first half, and an NFL record for points in the first half of an opener, taking a 42-10 lead at the break. They broke franchise marks for points and total yards with 643. Lamar Jackson tied a franchise record with five touchdowns passing. The Ravens have outscored the Dolphins 137-16 in three meetings since 2016.

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STREAKS & STATS

DeSean Jackson caught two touchdown passes in the Eagles' 32-27 win over Washington. Those were his first regular-season receiving touchdowns with Philadelphia since Dec. 15, 2013. ... The Browns committed 18 penalties for 182 yards and lost to the Titans 43-13 and fell to 1-19-1 in openers since 1999. ... Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was held to a career-low minus-2 yards rushing in Carolina's 30-27 loss to the L.A. Rams. ... Indianapolis' Adam Vinatieri experienced something for the first time in his 24-year career: two missed field goals and a missed extra point in the same game in a 30-24 loss to the Chargers. It is the 18th time he has missed two or more field goals in a game. ... The Chargers' Ty Long became the first player since Miami's Olindo Mare in 1997 to have an extra point, field goal and punt in his first NFL game.

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EJECTIONS

Three players were ejected from games on the opening Sunday. Browns starting left tackle Greg Robinson was disqualified for kicking Titans safety Kenny Vaccaro. The drama began at the end of a running play in the second quarter when Robinson was on the ground and delivered a blow with his leg to Vaccaro. ... Jaguars linebacker Myles Jack was ejected after taking a swing at Chiefs linebacker Demarcus Robinson. Jack had to be restrained by two team officials and essentially pulled off the field. Jack and receiver Sammy Watkins got into a shoving match after a play, and then Robinson came in and shoved Jack in the back. ... San Francisco linebacker Kwon Alexander was penalized 15 yards and dismissed for lowering his helmet to initiate contact on a hit to Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston as he was sliding after a 5-yard run. Alexander, who spent the past four seasons with the Buccaneers, was playing in his first game since signing with the 49ers as a free agent this year.

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CITY OF BROTHERLY LOVE

Philadelphia 76ers forward Mike Scott was involved in a fight with Eagles fans while tailgating outside the stadium after he wore a Redskins jersey and hat to the party. Scott didn't appear to get injured in the video of the fight. He stuck around and took selfies, according to posts by other fans. Scott has become a popular player in the city for responding to invitations on social media and showing up to hang out with fans. He dropped in at wedding reception earlier in the summer.

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SIDELINED

Nick Foles broke his left collarbone when Chris Jones hit him hard and landed on top of him as Foles threw a 35-yard touchdown pass to DJ Chark in the Jaguars' 40-26 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Foles will have surgery Monday. He is expected to be put on injured reserve, which would make him ineligible to play again until Week 11 at the earliest. It was one of two significant shoulder injuries in Jacksonville. The Chiefs lost star receiver Tyreek Hill after he landed on his shoulder in the first half, and Hill was taken to a hospital after the game for treatment. ... Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley, departed with a groin injury against the Bills, a key moment in Buffalo's rally to a 17-16 victory. The Jets also lost rookie defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, with an ankle injury. Williams was in a walking boot after the game. ... Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield had his right X-rayed after Cleveland's season-opening 43-13 flop against Tennessee. The X-rays were negative and Mayfield, who left with his wrist heavily taped, said he would be ''all right.'' ... The Washington Redskins lost two defensive linemen, Jonathan Allen (left knee) and Caleb Brantley (right ankle), in their loss to the Eagles. Philadelphia defensive tackle Malik Jackson limped off the field in the fourth quarter and wore a walking boot after the game.

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SPEAKING

''You all can crown them if you want to crown them. We still have to play football.'' - Titans tight end Delanie Walker, who had two touchdown receptions in his team's 43-13 rout of Cleveland which fizzled in its highly anticipated opener.

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''I couldn't stay calm. I was overly excited like a kid before Christmas, knowing what I mean to the city and what the city means to me. I couldn't think of it being any other way,'' - Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson on playing his first game back in Philadelphia since former Eagles coach Chip Kelly cut him following his third Pro Bowl season in 2013.

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''Not bad for a running back.'' - Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who tied a franchise record with five touchdowns passing in Baltimore's 59-10 win over Miami.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Eagles 30, Redskins 27:
— Washington led 20-7 at the half.
— Redskins threw 45 passes, ran ball only 13 times.
— Washington is 1-6 vs spread in last seven NFC East road games.

— Eagles had TD plays of 51-53 yards, both on 3rd and 10 passes.
— Philly converted 11-17 third down plays.
— Eagle offense in 2nd half: four drives, 43 plays, 272 yards, 25 points.

Bills 17, Jets 16:
— Buffalo’s first seven drives: 35 plays, 165 yards, outscored 8-0 by Jet defense.
— Buffalo’s last four drives: 28 plays, 220 yards, 17 points.
— 38-yard pass from Allen to Brown with 3:00 left was the game-winner.

— Jets were outgained 370-223; they averaged only 3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Jets’ new kicker missed a PAT and a 45-yard FG.
— Not many teams are +3 in turnovers and lose; Jets had four takeaways (+3).

Vikings 28, Falcons 12:
— Atlanta turned ball over three times, was only 2-8 on third down.
— Falcons had punt blocked on first series, threw INT on second series.
— Last 2+ years, Atlanta is now 4-13 vs spread on road (1-7 as road dog).

— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 23-7-1 vs spread as a HF, 17-2-1 outside NFC North.
— Minnesota threw only 10 passes the whole game; that doesn’t happen much.
— Vikings won/covered their last five home openers.

Ravens 59, Dolphins 10:
— Baltimore had ball 10 times, scored eight TD’s, kicked a FG.
— Jackson was 17-20/324 passing; he is 7-1 as an NFL starter.
— Ravens won last four Week 1 games by combined score of 139-20.

— Miami ran only 12 times for 21 yards; they were -3 in turnovers.
— Dolphins gave app 643 yards, were down 42-10 at halftime.
— 2020 NFL Draft begins April 23rd in Las Vegas.

Chiefs 40, Jaguars 26:
— McCoy carried ball 10 times for 81 yards in his KC debut.
— KC had a 14-yard advantage in starting field position.
— Five of KC’s seven plays of 20+ yards came on first down.

— Nick Foles broke his clavicle, is out indefinitely.
— Backup QB Minshew was 22-25/275 passing, with two TD’s.
— Both teams averaged 10+ yards/pass attempt, which doesn’t happen much.

Titans 43, Browns 13:
— Tennessee defense scored nine points, gave up only 13.
— Titans were +3 in turnovers (3-0), had 11-yard edge in field position.
— Tennessee won/covered six of last seven road openers.

— Cleveland were called for 18 penalties for 182 yards.
— Since re-joining NFL in 1999, Browns are 1-19-1 SU in Week 1
— Last 9+ years, Cleveland is 7-15-2 as a home favorite.

Rams 30, Panthers 27:
— 89 of Gurley’s 97 rushing yards came in second half.
— LA converted 9-17 third down plays.
— Rams had one punt blocked, another deflected; no bueno.

— McCaffery had 29 touches for 209 yards; their WR’s caught only 11 passes.
— Newton ran ball only three times, for minus-2 yards.
— First time in six years that Carolina lost its home opener.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/08/2019.....16-10-0.....61.54%.....+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0....... 50.00%.... -0.50


Totals..............17-11-0.... 50.00%..... +24.50


*****************************


BEST BETS:


DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50


Totals......................6 - 6............-3.00..............9 - 3 ..............+28.50..............+25.50

[StarDust Bum]

Books earn small Week 1 win
September 8, 2019
By Micah Roberts

Despite the perfect storm brewing in Nevada sportsbooks on Sunday’s NFL Week 1 action with the three most popular teams winning and covering the number early, the books got a few breaks with an overhyped favored squad losing at home outright, a popular two-team teaser crashing, a sweet backdoor cover for the house, and one of the lowest-rated teams coming from the dead to salvage a tie.

After all the results were posted from the first 12 games on Sunday, as usual, it came down to the Sunday Night Football game to decide their fate.

“Even though we took sharp action on the Steelers we give away half the day’s winning if the Patriots cover due to the large parlay risk accumulated on the day,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback.”The Cardinals really eliminated a lot of risk for us.”

The Patriots rolled the Steelers 33-3 as 5 ½-point home favorites in wire-to-wire fashion.

Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook says the Cardinals are their second-worst rated team behind the Dolphins and they're barely just ahead of the Raiders. More on the Dolphins in a bit, but let’s talk about the biggest favorite of the week where the Eagles were -10 at home over the Redskins only to see quarterback Case Keenum catch fire and lead Washington to a 17-0 lead.

Philadelphia was a popular parlay and teaser play, and It’s likely a few disgruntled bettors threw their bets slips away early on. But the Eagles chopped away and not only took the lead in the second-half, but they also had the cover in line, 32-20, with just a few 3:18 remaining. It was gift cover and the roars throughout every book could be heard on the strip. But just as Eagles bettors were buying their celebratory gift-cover cocktail, Keenum struck again with 12 seconds left. Final score: Eagles 32-27.

“We were fortunate with the Redskins backdoor cover and getting then getting the Titans to win outright changed the trajectory of our day,” Stoneback said of the morning games after the most popular parlay teams of the Ravens, Rams, and Chiefs all got covers to go along with the Overs. That a nice six-bagger.

“Loads of liability rolling into the afternoon slate,” said Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick. “Thank goodness for the Titans win and Redskins backdoor or we’d be looking at a disaster.”

The Redskins seemed to be the gateway for most books to escape the public parlay from gaining too much momentum. That, and the Browns losing 43-13 at home to the Titans as 5 ½-point favorites. The Browns losing coupled with Seattle (-9) beating Cincinnati by only a 21-20 score knocked out any momentum from heavy teaser risk on the day.

“It was a nice backdoor for us on the spread, but we could have cleaned up on the larger Eagles money-line bets we took,” said Kornegay who had the Eagles -450 posted on the money-line.

When the Redskins scored the last touchdown, you can imagine the scene in any sportsbook where not many took the points with the heavy road underdog Washington.

“It was real quiet in the book (Mirage) when the Redskins scored with only a sound of a few moans,” Stoneback said.

Favorites went 4-3 against the spread in the early games with two underdogs (Titans, Bills) winning outright, but the 'dogs came back stronger in the afternoon going 3-1-1 ATS which helped negate the lone favorite winning.

The Cowboys looked impressive in their 35-17 home win as seven-point home favorites against the Giants. The trendy pick of the week was those making a case to take the points with the Giants, but Dallas quickly disposed of that notion.

The Chargers (-6) technically got a push in their 30-24 overtime win against the Colts in Carson, CA (no real home-field edge), but the game was once at -7 and -6 ½ for quite a while after Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck announced his retirement. It went from -3 ½ to -7 quickly. Despite future Hall of Fame kicker Adam Vinatieri missing two fields goals and an extra-point in a game for the first time in his career, QB Jacoby Brissett led the Colts to a late TD and 2-point conversion to send it into overtime, 24-24.

But the major turning point of the day for the house was the Cardinals (+3) coming back to score 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter at home against the Lions who were up 24-6. Rookie QB Kyler Murray couldn’t get anything going and rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury looked like a deer in headlights as his slick offense was looking like the walking dead.

The Lions went from pick’em to -3 (Even) by kickoff. The game ended in a 27-27 tie, but the Cardinals got the money and sent a sure 'under' ticket (46) to cash the high side. And the Cards offense actually looked very good in their final five possessions, four which resulted in scores.

The lowest rated team, the Dolphins, proved their preseason rating was way overrated. No team will be adjusted more than the Dolphins in the next week after they got blasted 59-10 by Baltimore at home while surrendering 643 total yards. Bettors knew the Dolphins were dirty rags as well and bet the Ravens at a 10-to-1 ratio at CG Technology books coming into the weekend. Between key players being traded, existing players wanting to be traded, and morale at an all-time low, I can’t ever remember the Browns being so lifeless when at their worst.

Miami opened +14 ½ at home to New England in Week 2 but that number is already creeping upwards.

But Kornegay cautioned.

"The biggest overreactions in the NFL by the public are always following Week 1, but yes, there's no doubt the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL."

The Ravens will get to pick on the No. 2 worst rated team next Sunday in Week 2 as they’re -13 ½ at home against the Cardinals.

West Coast time zone teams traveling East for a 10:00 a.m. PT game doesn’t usually work out well, and the Cardinals will be having a rookie QB in his first road start. There are so many reasons to believe that the Ravens will have their way with their new pass-happy offense. But is it more about QB Lamar Jackson being improved or the Dolphins just being awful?

Something to ponder during the week with such a huge number!