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By: Brandon DuBreuil
GURLEY WON’T GO
The L.A. Rams have officially ruled Todd Gurley out for Sunday’s regular-season finale against the 49ers, which really comes as no surprise as he’ll rest his knee for the playoffs. This means C.J. Anderson gets another run as the bell cow a week after posting 167 rushing yards and a touchdown on 20 carries against Arizona.
We already mentioned earlier in the week that the Over for Anderson’s rushing yards total makes for a smart play with Gurley out of the lineup. We still like that prop and we’re going to double-down on Anderson by backing him to get into the end zone. San Francisco has a significantly better rush defense than Arizona, but Anderson is in an amazing spot at home as a 10-point favorite in a game that the Rams are motivated to win so that they can secure a first-round bye. Take Anderson to score a touchdown at any time.
RECORD CHASING FOR KITTLE
The San Francisco 49ers are banged up on offense ahead of Sunday’s game against the Rams with receivers Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis, running back Matt Breida, and tight end Garrett Celek all out. Who does this leave? Receivers Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor, and Richie James, and tight end George Kittle, who just happens to be 99 yards shy of the single-season receiving record for tight ends. Interestingly enough, Travis Kelce is just 53 yards shy of the mark, meaning both players could potentially break the record that is currently held by Rob Gronkowski.
With nothing to play for on Sunday, expect coach Kyle Shanahan and quarterback Nick Mullens to do all they can to feed Kittle all afternoon. In fact, Shanahan might be the most motivated to get Kittle the record after failing to get Kittle the single-game receiving record for tight ends when he needed just five yards in the entire second half in Week 14. Shanahan felt terrible that his second-year tight end was blanked in the second half of that game, apologizing multiple times to Kittle afterward. This is his chance to make for it by calling plays that force feed Kittle all afternoon. We’re taking the Over 5.5 on Kittle’s receptions total and the Over 78.5 on his receiving yards total.
BALDWIN CLEARED
Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin was removed from the team’s injury report on Friday, which came as a bit of a surprise after he was limited during Thursday’s practice. Regardless, this clears him for Week 17 and he should be full speed for Sunday’s tilt against Arizona.
Baldwin is on fire of late with receiving lines of 7-126-1 and 4-77-2 over his last two games. This week, he faces an Arizona defense that he has scored two touchdowns against in his last three games, dating back to last season. We’re a little wary of backing the Over for his receiving totals as he could be rested in the later parts of the game if the Seahawks get up big, which is quite possible as a 13-point favorite. Instead, we’re going to back him to get into the end zone for the third week in a row by backing to score a touchdown at any time.
BRIDGEWATER DRAWS THE START
New Orleans confirmed on Friday that it will start Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback on Sunday as the Saints host the Panthers. New Orleans has nothing to play for with the top seed in the NFC already locked up and Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram are all expected to mostly be spectators on Sunday. We already suggested backing the Under 43.5 for this game earlier in the week and congratulations if you already placed a bet on that total as the markets for the Saints-Panthers game have since been pulled offline. We also suggested backing the Under on Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen’s passing yards total and we’ll suggest the same for Bridgewater. The Saints will want to keep things as vanilla as possible with the playoffs on the horizon and will likely treat this game as a preseason affair. Take the Under on Bridgewater’s passing yards total.
ALLEN TO RUN OVER MIAMI?
As mentioned multiple times throughout this week’s articles, finding value in Week 17 betting markets is often based on finding motivation (or lack thereof). There could be a motivation mismatch in Buffalo on Sunday as the Dolphins visit the Bills.
On one sideline, you have rookie Josh Allen who is playing hard to prove that he belongs in the conversation with Baker Mayfield as the best rookie quarterbacks from this season. On the other sideline, you have a Miami team that faces an offseason where the entire organization could be flipped, including executives, coaches, and the starting quarterback. It’s also going to be cold, with temperatures set in the mid-20s, which should drop Miami’s motivation levels even further.
Allen torched the Dolphins for 135 rushing yards on just nine carries back in Week 13 and, even though he’s been running less of late with rushing yards totals of 30 and 16 over his last two weeks, we think he’ll do enough running on Sunday to get above and beyond his rushing yards total of 40.5. Take the Over.
GURLEY WON’T GO
The L.A. Rams have officially ruled Todd Gurley out for Sunday’s regular-season finale against the 49ers, which really comes as no surprise as he’ll rest his knee for the playoffs. This means C.J. Anderson gets another run as the bell cow a week after posting 167 rushing yards and a touchdown on 20 carries against Arizona.
We already mentioned earlier in the week that the Over for Anderson’s rushing yards total makes for a smart play with Gurley out of the lineup. We still like that prop and we’re going to double-down on Anderson by backing him to get into the end zone. San Francisco has a significantly better rush defense than Arizona, but Anderson is in an amazing spot at home as a 10-point favorite in a game that the Rams are motivated to win so that they can secure a first-round bye. Take Anderson to score a touchdown at any time.
RECORD CHASING FOR KITTLE
The San Francisco 49ers are banged up on offense ahead of Sunday’s game against the Rams with receivers Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis, running back Matt Breida, and tight end Garrett Celek all out. Who does this leave? Receivers Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor, and Richie James, and tight end George Kittle, who just happens to be 99 yards shy of the single-season receiving record for tight ends. Interestingly enough, Travis Kelce is just 53 yards shy of the mark, meaning both players could potentially break the record that is currently held by Rob Gronkowski.
With nothing to play for on Sunday, expect coach Kyle Shanahan and quarterback Nick Mullens to do all they can to feed Kittle all afternoon. In fact, Shanahan might be the most motivated to get Kittle the record after failing to get Kittle the single-game receiving record for tight ends when he needed just five yards in the entire second half in Week 14. Shanahan felt terrible that his second-year tight end was blanked in the second half of that game, apologizing multiple times to Kittle afterward. This is his chance to make for it by calling plays that force feed Kittle all afternoon. We’re taking the Over 5.5 on Kittle’s receptions total and the Over 78.5 on his receiving yards total.
BALDWIN CLEARED
Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin was removed from the team’s injury report on Friday, which came as a bit of a surprise after he was limited during Thursday’s practice. Regardless, this clears him for Week 17 and he should be full speed for Sunday’s tilt against Arizona.
Baldwin is on fire of late with receiving lines of 7-126-1 and 4-77-2 over his last two games. This week, he faces an Arizona defense that he has scored two touchdowns against in his last three games, dating back to last season. We’re a little wary of backing the Over for his receiving totals as he could be rested in the later parts of the game if the Seahawks get up big, which is quite possible as a 13-point favorite. Instead, we’re going to back him to get into the end zone for the third week in a row by backing to score a touchdown at any time.
BRIDGEWATER DRAWS THE START
New Orleans confirmed on Friday that it will start Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback on Sunday as the Saints host the Panthers. New Orleans has nothing to play for with the top seed in the NFC already locked up and Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram are all expected to mostly be spectators on Sunday. We already suggested backing the Under 43.5 for this game earlier in the week and congratulations if you already placed a bet on that total as the markets for the Saints-Panthers game have since been pulled offline. We also suggested backing the Under on Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen’s passing yards total and we’ll suggest the same for Bridgewater. The Saints will want to keep things as vanilla as possible with the playoffs on the horizon and will likely treat this game as a preseason affair. Take the Under on Bridgewater’s passing yards total.
ALLEN TO RUN OVER MIAMI?
As mentioned multiple times throughout this week’s articles, finding value in Week 17 betting markets is often based on finding motivation (or lack thereof). There could be a motivation mismatch in Buffalo on Sunday as the Dolphins visit the Bills.
On one sideline, you have rookie Josh Allen who is playing hard to prove that he belongs in the conversation with Baker Mayfield as the best rookie quarterbacks from this season. On the other sideline, you have a Miami team that faces an offseason where the entire organization could be flipped, including executives, coaches, and the starting quarterback. It’s also going to be cold, with temperatures set in the mid-20s, which should drop Miami’s motivation levels even further.
Allen torched the Dolphins for 135 rushing yards on just nine carries back in Week 13 and, even though he’s been running less of late with rushing yards totals of 30 and 16 over his last two weeks, we think he’ll do enough running on Sunday to get above and beyond his rushing yards total of 40.5. Take the Over.
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