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Ravens favored, but book likes Chargers' odds in NFL wild-card round
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and Baltimore held on for a Week 17 win over Cleveland to claim the AFC North and punch their playoff ticket. The Ravens opened -2.5 for a Sunday home game against the Chargers.

After a wild 17 weeks of regular-season play, it’s time to look ahead to wild-card weekend in the NFL. We check in on the opening lines and early action for next weekend’s four playoff games, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, supervisor at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Los Angeles tied for the best record in the AFC, yet is the No. 5 seed and on the road to open the postseason. The Chargers (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS), who lost a tiebreaker to Kansas City for the AFC West title, finished the regular season with a 23-9 victory at Denver as 7-point favorites.

Baltimore won six of its last seven games to overtake Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, earning the No. 4 seed in the process. The Ravens (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS) had to win Sunday to reach the playoffs and got a huge scare, thwarting a Cleveland rally to win 26-24 as 7-point home faves.

“This is a situation where we like the ‘dog,” Wilkinson said. “We initially discussed having the game as a pick or even favoring the Chargers by a point, but the other markets like the Ravens. I think this line will drop quickly and could even favor the Chargers by game day.”

Kickoff is at 1:05 p.m. ET Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Dallas had nothing to play for in Week 17, stuck in the No. 4 slot for the NFC playoffs. But the Cowboys (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) went out and played anyway, only holding out Ezekiel Elliott, and edged the New York Giants 36-35 as 7.5-point road underdogs.

Seattle went on a 6-1 SU run to cap the regular season and nab a wild-card spot as the No. 5 seed. In Week 17, the Seahawks (10-6 SU, 9-5-2 ATS) let Arizona hang around the whole game, but claimed a 27-24 win laying 14 points at home.

“We opened on the low end of the market here, because we like Seattle,” Wilkinson said of this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday meeting. “Most of the market is at -2.5 (-120) or -3. I think the sharp money will be on the Seahawks, but the line will probably move toward Dallas, because of too much public money.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (no line)

Chicago enters the postseason as the No. 3 seed after winning the NFC North title. The Bears (12-4 SU and ATS), the No. 1 spread-covering team in the NFL, dropped Minnesota 24-10 as 6-point road pups in Week 17.

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia took it right down to the Week 17 wire, but got back into the playoffs as a wild card with the No. 6 seed. The Eagles (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) blanked Washington 24-0 giving 6 points on the road.

However, Philly quarterback Nick Foles suffered a rib injury late in the game. That prompted The SuperBook to hold off on posting this line, until Foles’ status is clarified for this Sunday contest with a 4:40 p.m. ET start.

“I think it’ll open around Bears -6 and the line will go up,” Wilkinson said. “The Bears are a much better team than Philly, and they’re at home.”

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-2.5)

It’s likely that nobody is looking forward to facing Indianapolis in the playoffs, with Frank Reich’s squad on a 9-1 SU tear (6-3-1 ATS) en route to the No. 6 seed. The Colts ended the regular season in a winner-take-all game at Tennessee and posted a 33-17 victory as 6-point favorites.

After losing its first three games, Houston went on a 9-0 SU run (6-3 ATS) to get back on track. Despite a 2-2 mark in the last four weeks, the Texans (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) won the AFC South and the No. 3 seed. Houston finished with a 20-3 win over Jacksonville as 7-point home faves.

“This is another one where anticipate the ‘dog covering or winning outright,” Wilkinson said of this 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday matchup.

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NFC Wild Card Notes
VI News

Saturday, January 5, 2019

NFC – Seattle at Dallas – 8:15 p.m. (FOX)

Opening Line (12/30/18): Dallas -3, 41 ½

Seattle Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
Dallas Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Seahawks and Cowboys hooked up at CenturyLink Field in Week 3 as Seattle took care of Dallas, 24-13 as one-point favorites. It was Seattle's first win of the season following an 0-2 start as Russell Wilson threw two touchdown passes for the Seahawks. Seattle jumped out to a 24-6 lead before Dallas scored its only touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

The Cowboys have lost each of the last three matchups with the Seahawks since 2015, while these teams last met in the playoffs in the famous Tony Romo fumble on the snap of the potential game-winning field goal in a 21-20 loss in the 2006 Wild Card round.

Playoff Notes: The Seahawks are back in the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven seasons after missing the postseason in 2017. Seattle owns a perfect 3-0 record in its previous three Wild Card contests since 2012, while not losing in its first playoff game during this stretch.

Dallas is making its third playoff appearance since 2014, as the Cowboys were knocked out in the divisional playoffs by the Packers in the final seconds in 2016. In its previous appearance in the Wild Card round in 2014, the Cowboys edged past the Lions, 24-20, but failed to cash as six-point favorites.

Total Notes: After starting the season with a 5-2 mark to the 'under,' the Cowboys finished with 'overs' in five of the final nine contests. Dallas hit the 'over' in five of eight games at AT&T Stadium, while going 4-2 to the 'over' as a home favorite.

The Seahawks were also a strong 'under' team to start the season by cashing in six of the first eight games. However, Seattle closed with 'overs' in seven of the last eight contests, including 'overs' in its final three road affairs.


Sunday, January 6, 2019

NFC – Philadelphia at Chicago – 4:40 p.m. (NBC)

Opening Line (12/30/18): Chicago -5 ½, 42

Philadelphia Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Chicago Home Record: 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Eagles and Bears didn't match up this season, but Philadelphia destroyed Chicago in 2017 at Lincoln Financial Field, 31-3. Chicago has lost three consecutive meetings with Philadelphia since 2013, while these clubs last dueled in the playoffs back in 2001. The Eagles cruised past the Bears at Soldier Field, 33-19 to advance to the NFC Championship.

Playoff Notes: Chicago finished at the bottom of the NFC North in the previous four seasons prior to capturing the division title in 2018. The Bears last reached the playoffs in 2010 when they advanced to the NFC Championship before falling to the rival Packers. Chicago last participated in the Wild Card round back in 1994 when it routed Minnesota, as the Bears own a 4-5 record in the playoffs the last 25 seasons.

The Eagles picked up their first Super Bowl title last season by knocking off the Patriots, while winning all three games as an underdog. Philadelphia has lost in past three opportunities in the Wild Card round since 2009, while last playing a road playoff game in 2009 against Dallas in a 34-14 defeat.

Total Notes: The Eagles posted a 9-7 mark to the 'under,' while going 5-3 to the 'over' away from Lincoln Financial Field. During last season's Super Bowl run, Philadelphia cashed the 'over' in two of three victories.

Chicago closed the season with four consecutive 'unders,' as the Bears limited those four opponents to 17 points or less in each contest. The total was a toss-up at Soldier Field as the Bears went 4-4 to the 'over,' but Chicago allowed 22 points or less in seven of eight home games.

[StarDust Bum]

AFC Wild Card Notes
VI News

Saturday, January 5, 2019

AFC – Indianapolis at Houston– 4:35 p.m. (ESPN)

Opening Line (12/30/18): Houston -2, 47 ½

Indianapolis Road Record: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Houston Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS

Head-to-Head: The visitor won and covered both games in the regular season but the first encounter from Indianapolis in Week 4 could’ve and probably should’ve been a tie. Colts head coach Frank Reich decided to go for a first down in overtime and the club missed, which allowed Houston to win 37-34 in the extra session. That victory helped the Texans run off nine straight wins but sure enough, Indy snapped that winning streak and got revenge in Week 14 with a 24-21 road win over Houston.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck owns a 6-4 career record versus Houston which includes a 3-2 mark on the road. The last four meetings at Houston were decided by five points or less.

Playoff Notes: The Colts haven’t been in the playoffs since the 2014 regular season. That season, they defeated the Bengals in the Wild Card round at home before upsetting Denver on the road in the Divisional Playoffs. Unfortunately, the club was blasted 45-7 by the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Indianapolis is 3-3 with Luck in the playoffs, 2-1 in Wild Card games and 1-3 overall on the road.

Houston went 1-1 in last year’s postseason, defeating a short-handed Oakland squad 27-14 at home in the Wild Card before losing 34-16 at Foxboro in the Divisional round. Head coach Bill O’Brien is 1-2 all-time in the playoffs. Houston as a franchise is 3-4 overall, 3-1 at home.

Total Notes: The Texans saw the ‘under’ go 9-7 on the season and 5-3 at home. The defense surrendered 15.3 points per game in their final four at NRG Stadium, which led to a 3-1 ‘under’ record.
Indianapolis saw its total results go 8-8 this season, 4-4 both home and away. The Colts offense was a tad shakier on the road (24.2 PPG) but they posted 28 and 33 points in their last two games, which led to ‘over’ tickets.

Including a split in this year’s regular season meetings, the ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in the past eight encounters between the pair.


Sunday, January 6, 2019

AFC – L.A. Chargers at Baltimore – 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

Opening Line (12/30/18): Baltimore -3, 41 ½

L.A. Chargers Road Record: 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS
Baltimore Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Ravens defeated the Chargers 22-10 in Week 16 as four-point road underdogs in a primetime game played on a Saturday from Los Angeles. Prior to this encounter, the pair split two regular season games from Baltimore in 2014 and 2015 and the outcomes were decided by a combined four points (29-26, 34-33).

Playoff Notes: The Chargers haven’t been in the playoffs since the 2013 regular season. They went 1-1 in the playoffs, winning the Wild Card game at the Bengals before losing to the Broncos in the Divisional Playoff round. QB Philip Rivers is 4-5 all-time in the playoffs but make a note that Los Angeles is 3-0 in Wild Card games.

This will be the first trip to the playoffs for Baltimore since the 2014 regular season. The Ravens went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS in that postseason. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh owns a 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS all-time playoff record and what’s really impressive is that only two of those games were at home, both victories.

Total Notes: The Chargers saw their total results split evenly (8-8) this season but they had a 5-3 ‘over’ lean on the road. Los Angeles averaged slightly more points on the road (26.9 PPG) this season than at home (26.6 PPG). The Bolts made three trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season and scored 31, 36 and 33 points. Along with winning each game, the ‘over’ connected in all three as well.

Baltimore watched the ‘under’ go 9-7 this season which included a 4-4 total record from M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens defense (17.9 PPG) is ranked second in scoring and including the first meeting with the Chargers, they only allowed 17 PPG in four games versus the AFC West this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 5

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INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (11 - 5) - 1/5/2019, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-3 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (10 - 6) at DALLAS (10 - 6) - 1/5/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 68-46 ATS (+17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 6

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LA CHARGERS (12 - 4) at BALTIMORE (10 - 6) - 1/6/2019, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
LA CHARGERS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
LA CHARGERS is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 100-71 ATS (+21.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (9 - 7) at CHICAGO (12 - 4) - 1/6/2019, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games this season.
CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CHICAGO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Wildcard Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 5

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games on the road
Indianapolis is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 14 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 7-12-2 ATS in its last 21 games
Houston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games at home
Houston is 3-8-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Dallas's last 25 games
Dallas is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games at home
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle


Sunday, January 6

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 10 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Philadelphia's last 24 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Chicago is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

[StarDust Bum]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



FOLES HAS BRUISED RIBS

Coach Doug Pederson confirmed on Monday afternoon that quarterback Nick Foles is healthy enough to start at Chicago on Sunday as the Eagles visit the Bears (Chicago -6, O/U 41). He is dealing with bruised ribs that he originally suffered in Week 16 and then aggravated when he took a sack in the fourth quarter against Washington on Sunday. (Side note: It was a very costly sack for Foles as he wound up falling four snaps shy of a $1 million bonus.)

He will likely be backed up by Nate Sudfeld as reports on Sunday noted that Carson Wentz is not expected to play in the playoffs (though, as of Monday, Wentz remained on the active roster). Sudfeld went 1-for-1 for 22 yards and a touchdown in relief of Foles against Washington.

Foles has passed for 270, 471, and 221 yards since becoming the starter but will be in tough on Sunday against the No. 1 ranked defense in passing DVOA. Here’s the key: Chicago posted the third-most sacks in the league with 50, just two behind co-leaders Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Philadelphia is average at protecting the quarterback and is allowing 2.5 sacks per game, ranked 16th in the NFL.

With bruised ribs, Foles will be just one hit away from having to sit for a series or two, or from being knocked from the game altogether. We’ll revisit this situation later in the week based on injury updates but if it seems that Foles is hurting we’ll be looking to fade his passing yards total.


GORDON EXPECTED TO GO

The L.A. Chargers seem to have dodged a possible bullet as reports say that Melvin Gordon’s ankle injury isn’t serious. The running back picked up the injury late in L.A.’s win over Denver but is expected to suit up on Sunday at Baltimore (Ravens -2.5, O/U 41.5).

Gordon did not look like himself in the final two weeks of the regular season after returning from a three-game absence, posting rushing lines of 12-41 against Baltimore in Week 16 and 10-42 against Denver in Week 17, while catching three passes in each of the two games. In fact, it was Austin Ekeler who impressed in the regular-season finale with a rushing line of 8-58-1.

It’s quite possible that Gordon is operating at less than 100 percent, which will make Sunday’s matchup against a Ravens run defense that allows just 82.9 rushing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL, that much more difficult. It will be important to see how much work Gordon gets in at practice throughout the week but as of today, we’ll be looking to fade him by backing the Under for his rushing yards total.


HENRY TO DEBUT

The Chargers might get an offensive boost for the Wild Card round as tight end Hunter Henry is expected to make his season debut. Henry has been on the PUP list all season with a torn ACL that he suffered during OTAs in May. The 2016 second-round pick was expected to play a big role in the Chargers’ offense this season after posting 12 touchdowns through his first 29 games.

It’s hard to envision Henry playing a full complement of snaps in his return but, at the same time, the Chargers wouldn’t be activating him if they didn’t think he could contribute. It’s also a tough matchup against Baltimore’s third-ranked defense in passing DVOA, although it should be noted that the Ravens rank just 23rd in DVOA in defending tight ends. We just don’t see the volume being there as he steps onto a field for the first time this season, however, and recommend staying away from backing Henry.


PASS HAPPY IN HOUSTON?

The first Wild Card game on Saturday sees Houston hosting Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 47. The one thing that really jumps out at this matchup is that it features two very good run defenses. Houston is ranked No. 1 in rushing DVOA and Indy comes in at No. 5 when using the same metric. The Texans allow just 82.7 rushing yards per game and the Colts 101.6.

Then there’s the offenses. Houston’s run game has disappeared with just 137 rushing yards on its last 60 carries from running backs. Indianapolis has Marlon Mack, who is coming off a very nice 119-yard performance on Sunday, but he posted just 33 rushing yards on 14 carries the last time these two teams played on Dec. 9. Lamar Miller posted 33 yards on 14 carries in that game that ended 24-21 even though there were 751 yards of total offense.

The earlier matchup between these two division rivals ended 37-34 in a game featured 944 yards of total offense. Both teams have franchise players at quarterback and they will be the ones deciding this game as both teams will likely abandon the run game early. Take the Over 47 before the total grows.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Wildcard Round


Saturday January 5

Indianapolis @ Houston

Game 101-102
January 5, 2019 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
139.556
Houston
132.938
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 6 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+2); Under

Seattle @ Dallas

Game 103-104
January 5, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
136.197
Dallas
139.080
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 3
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 1
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-1); Over


Sunday, January 6

LA Chargers @ Baltimore

Game 105-106
January 6, 2019 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
139.364
Baltimore
134.870
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 4 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(+2 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Chicago

Game 107-108
January 6, 2019 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
135.680
Chicago
130.441
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 6
41
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+6); Under

[Udog]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



MARTIN TO RETURN TO THE TRENCHES

The Dallas Cowboys will get a big boost for Saturday’s Wild Card game against Seattle with the return of right guard Zack Martin. The All-Pro has missed the last two weeks and will be a huge boost to both the running game and Dak Prescott’s protection.

Elliott, in particular, should benefit the most and he is lined up to have a big day on Saturday. He didn’t play a snap in Week 17, meaning he’ll be fresh on two weeks of rest. Elliott will also be facing a very mediocre run defense that ranks 17th in rushing DVOA and allows 113.2 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. Elliott is averaging 107.7 rushing yards on 22.1 carries since Week 10 and ran for 127 yards on 16 carries (7.9 YPC) on the road when these teams met in Seattle in Week 3. We’re expecting Elliott to be at his best on Saturday and we’ll be backing the Over for his rushing yards total.


CARSON GETS DAY OFF

Seahawks running back Chris Carson did not practice on Tuesday but the day off was not related to an injury. It appears that the Seahawks were simply giving their bell cow an extra day of rest in the short week ahead of their Wild Card matchup on Saturday.

Carson faces a tough matchup against a Cowboys defense that is ranked fifth in rushing DVOA and allows just 94.6 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry. Don’t expect the tough matchup to deter the Seahawks from running the ball, however. Seattle runs the ball on 52.8 percent of its offensive plays, by far the highest mark in the NFL (Tennessee is second at 48.4 percent).

Carson had 22, 22, and 27 carries in Weeks 14-16 before getting a slight rest with 19 in the regular-season finale against Arizona. When the Seahawks hosted Dallas back in Week 3, Carson had a season-high 32 carries. We expect both teams to go run heavy on Sunday, in an effort to control the clock and the tempo of the game, with Carson getting his usual 20-plus carries. Take the Over on his rushing attempts total if it’s set anywhere around 20-21.


FADING MILLER (AGAIN)

Texans running back Lamar Miller ran for 56 yards on 17 carries in Week 17, which got us a winner as we had suggested taking the Under 60.5 on his rushing yards total. The mediocre rushing output was, however, an improvement for Houston after its backs had gained just 81 yards over their previous 43 carries for a putrid 1.9 yards per carry. In Week 17, it was quarterback Deshaun Watson who was the Texans’ leading rusher with 66 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries.

Houston hosts Indianapolis in the early game on Saturday (Texans -2.5, O/U 47). The Colts quietly have an excellent run defense with a No. 4 rank in rushing DVOA and allow the eighth-fewest rushing yards in the league at 101.6. Derrick Henry ran for 93 yards in 16 carries against Indy on Sunday night but that should be considered a big win for the Colts considering Henry was the hottest back in football heading into Week 17. We’re suggesting the Under for Miller's rushing yards total once again this weekend.


COUTEE COMING BACK

Houston receiver Keke Coutee is practicing in full this week and should be a full-go for Saturday's game against Indy. Coutee hasn’t played since Week 12 because of a hamstring injury but he could be counted on to play a big role in the Wild Card round, especially due to the season-ending injury to Demaryius Thomas.

Coutee’s role on Saturday will be very hard to predict. Earlier in the season, when he was healthy and before Thomas was traded to Houston, Coutee was heavily involved as a slot receiver. In his four full games, he posted receiving lines of 11-109, 6-51-1, 3-33, and 5-77. He was forced to leave two other games with the hamstring issue which led to lines of 1-3 and 2-14. If he is indeed healthy, he could see a nice complement of targets in what we expect to be a pass-heavy game from both teams. However, it’s also possible that he has simply missed too much time to be relevant in a playoff game. We’ll be monitoring his status throughout the week — particularly as to whether he’ll be a starting wideout — but as of today we’re leaning towards grabbing the Over on his receptions total (which should be set quite low due to his long absence).

[Udog]

NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

1. Bears 12-4 ATS
2. Seahawks 9-5-2 ATS
t3. Saints 10-6 ATS
t3. Browns 10-6 ATS
5. Chiefs 9-6-1 ATS
t6. 6 teams tied at 9-7 ATS (Chargers, Pats, Cowboys, Bengals, Washington, Lions)


NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

t31. 49ers 5-11
t31. Falcons 5-11
30. Jets 5-10-1
29. Jaguars 5-9-2
28. Raiders 6-10
t26. Packers 6-9-1
t26. Broncos 6-9-1
t25. 3 teams tied at 7-9 (Bills, Panthers, Eagles)


NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):

1. Chiefs 10-5-1
2. Jets 10-6
t3. Falcons 9-7
t3. Giants 9-7
t3. 49ers 9-7
t3. Seahawks 9-7
t3. Buccaneers 9-7
8. Bengals 8-6-2


NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Broncos 12-3-1
2. Patriots 11-5
t3. Lions 10-6
t3. Jaguars 10-6
t3. Vikings 10-6
t4. 8 teams tied at 7-9 (Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, Texans,Saints, Eagles, Redskins)

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Odds for the PGA Tour event in Hawai’i this week:

Dustin Johnson +550

Jon Rahm +750

Justin Thomas +800

Brooks Koepka +900

Bryson Dechambeau, Rory McIlroy +1000

Jason Day +1200

Quote of the Day
“I still have a lot of time making the decision, working with my family and teammates and coaches to figure out what’s best for me. But right now I’m excited to get this win. Excited to leave Coach with this victory for myself and the rest of the teammates. It’s a blessed situation right now.”
Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins, on whether he’ll enter the NFL Draft this year

Thursday’s quiz
How many current NFL head coaches have won a Super Bowl as a HC?

Wednesday’s quiz
Russell Wilson was the only NFL QB to take every offensive snap for his team this season.

Tuesday’s quiz
Shaquille O’Neal played his college basketball at LSU.


Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Winner of the Westgate SuperBook handicapping contest this season won $1.422M Sunday night, when the Colts beat Tennessee, edging two entrants who both had Tennessee in that game- those two guys, who needed Blaine Gabbert to cover the spread in order to have a shot at the big prize, both banked $409,000.

Imagine being involved in a game with a $1M swing and your side’s QB is Blaine Gabbert????

12) Over last three years, Pac-12 teams are 7-15 vs spread in bowl games.

11) Bowl records by conference, with one game left:

Conference USA: 4-2
SEC 6-5
Big Ten: 5-4
Big 12: 4-3
Mountain West: 3-2
Sun Belt: 3-2
Independents: 2-1
ACC: 5-5
Pac-12: 3-4
AAC: 2-5
MAC: 1-5

10) Central Michigan and Texas were only college football teams not to have at least one offensive play of 50+ yards this season.

9) Texas 28, Georgia 21— Before this game Tuesday night, Texas mascot Bevo went after UGa, the Georgia mascot down in the Superdome, and that aggression carried over into the game.

Hard to tell if Georgia let down because they didn’t make the 4-team playoff. Tom Herman’s career record vs spread as an underdog is now 9-2-1.

8) Trailblazers won in OT at Sacramento Tuesday night; Portland’s Jusuf Nurkić came the first player since steals and blocks first became official stats in 1973 to have 20+ points, 20+ rebounds, 5+ assists, 5+ steals and 5+ blocks in same game.

7) Oft-injured SS Troy Tulowitzki signed with the Bronx baseball team; they will pay him $600K next year while Toronto pays him $17.4M a year for two years to play against them.

6) Texas Tech 62, West Virginia 59— This was a truly awful game; teams played hard, but they combined to go 8-37 on the arc. WVU was 18-32 on foul line in a 3-point loss— had to be a brutal game to ref— very physical, ton of missed shots. West Virginia’s guards aren’t good.

5) Maryland 74, Nebraska 72— Cornhuskers came in as the ranked team, left with a loss.

4) Seton Hall 80, Xavier 70— Solid conference road win for the Pirates.

3) I’m guessing NFL teams generally dislike being on HBO’s Hard Knocks. Coaches hate distractions, and TV cameras are a pretty big distraction. Here are three ways teams can get out of being on Hard Knocks:

— They have a first-year head coach.
— They were in the playoffs in the last two seasons.
— They’ve been on Hard Knocks in any of the last ten years.

Taking those rules into account, only five teams can be forced into being HBO’s focus next summer: 49ers, Raiders, Redskins, Giants and Lions.

2) NFL TV ratings were up 5% this season, good news for the league.

1) Rough couple of days for people passing away, especially for 76-year olds:
— Tyler Trent, 20, the Purdue fan who was an inspiration to so many the last few months, passed away from bone cancer over the weekend.
— Wrestling announcer Gene Okerlund, 76, passed away after a lengthy illness.
— Daryl Dragon, 76, the captain in Captain and Tennille, passed away on Monday.
— One of the most underrated funny men ever, Bob Einstein, passed away at age 76. Einstein was a talented comedy writer- he was in Oceans 13 among other movies. His character Super Dave, a knock-off of Evil Knievel’s daredevil antics, made people laugh for years.

[StarDust Bum]

WC - Colts at Texans
Kevin Rogers

The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday afternoon with an AFC South battle between the Colts and Texans from NRG Stadium in Houston. Both these teams struggled out of the gate, but rebounded as the division sends two teams to the playoffs for the second consecutive season after Jacksonville and Tennessee made it in 2017.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

The Colts (10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) finally had a healthy Andrew Luck after the former top pick missed last season with a shoulder injury. Indianapolis fell into a 1-5 hole through six games, with the lone victory coming at Washington in Week 2 as six-point underdogs, 21-6. The Colts dropped their first two home games to the Bengals and Texans, while allowing at least 34 points in four of those defeats.

However, Frank Reich’s team would turn things around by picking up five consecutive wins to climb above the .500 mark, as the offense posted 27 points or more in each of those victories. After getting blanked at Jacksonville in Week 13 in a 6-0 setback, the Colts rebounded with four more wins to close out the season, including back-to-back victories over the Texans and Cowboys. Indianapolis clinched its first playoff berth since 2014 in a Week 17 winner-take-all triumph at Tennessee, 33-17 to finish 4-2 inside the AFC South.

The Texans (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) were a mess after three weeks, losing to the Patriots, Titans, and Giants to fall to 0-3. It looked like a long season for Houston, but the Texans ran of nine consecutive wins, including back-to-back overtime triumphs over the Colts and Cowboys to start the hot streak. During that winning streak, Houston limited opponents to 17 points or less six times, while picking up three double-digit home victories over Miami, Tennessee, and Cleveland.

Houston split its final four games, including losses by three points or less to Indianapolis and Philadelphia. The Texans wrapped up their third AFC South title in the last four seasons, while picking up the second-most wins in franchise history with 11 victories, coming one short of the 12-4 mark in 2012.

WHO TO WATCH

Luck threw for the second-most touchdowns in a season in his career (39), including an eight-game stretch in which he tossed at least three touchdowns. Running back Marlon Mack is coming off a career season by racking up 908 rushing yards in only 12 games, including a 139-yard effort against Dallas in the Week 15 home shutout. T.Y. Hilton is fighting an ankle injury, but the wide receiver eclipsed the 100-yard mark in each matchup against Houston, as he hauled in nine catches for 199 yards in the Week 14 triumph at Houston.

Deshaun Watson started all 16 games for Houston after missing the second half of 2017 with a torn ACL. The Texans’ quarterback threw 26 touchdowns and was intercepted only nine times, while rushing for five scores. Lamar Miller finished 27 rushing yards short of his third career 1,000-yard rushing season, but was limited to 82 yards in two meetings against Indianapolis. DeAndre Hopkins pulled in a career-high 111 receptions for 1,572 yards, including three straight 100-yard games to close the season.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

Indianapolis finished 4-4 away from Lucas Oil Stadium, while the OVER cashed in four of those road affairs. The Colts managed a 3-2 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog, including outright victories at Washington and Houston.

The Texans won six of eight games at NRG Stadium, but covered in only four of those games. Houston began the season 0-3 ATS at home before posting a 4-1 ATS mark in its final five home contests. The UNDER hit in five of eight home games, including in two of three affairs with AFC South opponents.

SERIES HISTORY

These two rivals split a pair of three-point outcomes with the road team coming out on top each time. In Week 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Texans entered Indianapolis in must-win mode after starting 0-3. Houston jumped out to a commanding 28-10 third quarter lead highlighted by two Watson touchdown passes and a Watson touchdown scamper.

However, Luck led the Colts back on a 21-3 run to end regulation, highlighted by a touchdown catch by Nyheim Hines with 45 seconds remaining. Indianapolis struck first in overtime with an Adam Vinatieri field goal, but Houston tied it with a field goal, then picked up the rare second three-pointer in the extra session to edge the Colts, 37-34 to cash as one-point favorites and hit the OVER of 48 ½. Luck finished with 464 yards passing and four touchdowns, but Indianapolis rushed for 41 yards without Mack.

The Colts picked up revenge in the second matchup in Houston in Week 14 with a 24-21 victory as four-point underdogs. After Houston scored an early touchdown, Indianapolis struck back for 17 second quarter points, as the Colts led the rest of the way. Luck finished one yard shy of 400 yards passing as Indianapolis captured its fourth win at Houston in the last five visits.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

Indianapolis has reached the postseason for the fourth time in Luck’s career since 2012, as the Colts have won two of three times in the Wild Card round. Both victories came at home, as Indianapolis lost in its last road Wild Card affair at Baltimore in 2012 by a 24-9 score. For the fifth time since 2011, the Texans are in the playoffs, as Houston owns a 3-1 record at home in the Wild Card round. Houston and Indianapolis are meeting for the first time ever in the playoffs, while the Texans are facing a division foe in the postseason also for the first time.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Handicapper Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on the initial Wild Card matchup, “Both defenses were very effective against the run in this rivalry as in the two games combined the Colts rushed for a total of 91 yards on 40 carries just fewer than 2.3 yards per rush. Houston was only slightly better on the ground with 208 rushing yards vs. the Colts over 60 carries just fewer than 3.5 yards per rush. Houston finished first in the NFL in allowing just 3.4 yards per rush on the season while only allowing eight rushing touchdowns this season. The Colts weren’t far behind finishing sixth in the NFL allowing 3.9 yards per rush.”

The quarterback play will be the difference in game, according to Nelson, “Luck is 3-3 in playoff games in his career with two road wins and he is the more established passer. Watson has won on the big stage in college and was sixth in the NFL in QB Rating this season. Both quarterbacks had good numbers in the regular season meetings with just one interception each. Luck is more prone to interceptions but Watson takes a great deal of sacks and has had a high fumble count. Watson was sacked 12 times in the two games between these teams while Luck was sacked just six times.”

FUTURE ODDS

The Colts and Texans are both two of the biggest long shots to win Super Bowl LIII as each squad sits at 25/1 at BetOnline.ag. Indianapolis and Houston are each 10/1 to capture the AFC title, while the Texans have dropped from a 2 ½-point favorite to a one-point favorite at most spots with a total of 48.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - WC Saturday
Chris David

Totals ended in a stalemate (8-8) in Week 17 and through 256 regular season games, the 'under' went 135-115-6 (54%).

Including the numbers from last Sunday, divisional games watched the 'under' go 52-43-1 on the season and we'll have at least one in this year's postseason as Indianapolis and Houston square off this wekeend.

Including Super Bowl 53 from Santa Clara, this year’s postseason will have three primetime games left with one night matchup scheduled on Saturday for both the Wild Card and Divisional Playoff Rounds. During the regular season, we didn't see a strong lean either way as the 'over' (26-25) held a slight edge and that includes a 2-0 'under' mark in the pair of games played on Saturday in Week 15 and 16.

Wild Card Trends

Looking at the below results, you can see that the opening week of the playoffs has leaned to the low side.

The 'under' went 3-1 last season and the low side is on a 17-6-1 (73.9%) run in the Wild Card round the past six postseasons. Going back to the 2004-05 playoffs, the 'under' is 35-20-1 (63%) overall in the first round.



Saturday, Jan. 5

For the playoffs, I’m going to break down every game and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Indianapolis at Houston (ESPN, 4:30 p.m. ET)

BookMaker opened this total at 47 and the number has been pushed up to 48 ½ as of Thursday morning and a couple Las Vegas books have gone to 49. While it’s not rare to see a divisional matchup in the Wild Card round, it doesn’t happen often. Going back to 2004, there have been 10 instances and the ‘under’ has gone 5-4-1 in those contests.

This series has watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 in the last five games between the pair and that includes a 1-1 mark this season. The visitor won both games this regular season and the first encounter from Indianapolis could’ve and probably should’ve been a tie. Colts head coach Frank Reich decided to go for a first down in overtime on his side of the field and the club missed, which allowed Houston to win 37-34 in the extra session. The rematch in Houston watched the Colts avenge that loss with a 24-21 win in Week 14.

Indianapolis outgained Houston in total yards (436-315) in the road win and they also put up more yards (478-466) at home in the Week 4 setback. Looking at the numbers and the eyeball test, it’s clear that the Colts have the better quarterback on the field in Andrew Luck. It’s also clear that the Texans QB Deshaun Watson has taken a beating from Indy, getting sacked 12 times in the two meetings this season.

Watson will be making his first playoff start on Saturday, fortunately for him it’s at home. Luck owns a 3-3 all-time record in the playoffs and he’s 1-3 on the road, with the lone upset coming in 2014 at Denver (24-13). In four road postseason starts, the Colts have been held to 15.5 points per game and the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in those contests.

Houston (15.3 PPG) has been very solid defensively at home, and that’s produced a 5-3 ‘under’ mark at NRG Stadium. The franchise has gone 3-4 all-time in the playoffs, 3-1 at home. In those four home games, we’ve seen averaged combined score of 36 PPG.

Fearless Prediction: This is the highest total on the board and while I would slightly lean to the ‘over’ in this matchup, I don’t have much confidence in the Texans offense. The unit is ranked 28th in red zone touchdown percentage and 20th in third down conversion percentage. I think Watson is a decent QB but far from ‘special’ and nowhere close to Luck. The Colts are first in 3rd down conversions and ranked fifth in red zones TDs. In five trips to Houston, Indy has averaged 24.8 PPG with Luck under center. I’ll ride that trend and play the Colts Team Total Over (24) here.


Seattle at Dallas (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Although not a divisional game, the primetime contest on Saturday is also a rematch from this year’s regular season and the early action is buying the high side. BookMaker sent out 41 ½ and the numbers is up to 43 as of Thursday. The pair met in Week 3 from Seattle and the Seahawks captured a 24-13 win over the Cowboys and the ‘under’ (40) was in control for most of the game.

The game was scoreless after the first quarter before Seattle built a 17-3 lead at halftime. Neither the Seahawks (295 yards) or Cowboys (303 yards) could do much offensively and Dallas certainly didn’t help its cause with three turnovers.

A lot has changed since that meeting and that’s part of the reason the total has been pushed up for the second encounter. In the second-half of the season, Seattle found its groove offensively (30 PPG) behind the top-ranked rushing offense (160 YPG) and that production helped the ‘over’ go 7-1.

Dallas hasn’t been as potent offensively, but we’ve seen some sparks from the club since it acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from Oakland. The Cowboys averaged 22.1 PPG with him in the lineup and that led to a 7-2 record. Without, the unit averaged 18.3 PPG and went 3-4. We’ve definitely seen some clunkers from the Dallas offense this season, in particular a recent shutout loss at Indianapolis in Week 15.

QB Dak Prescott takes a lot of criticism in Dallas and deservingly but the key to the offense is running back Ezekiel Elliot. The club is 6-1 this season when he gets 20-plus carries and the lone loss came by three points in overtime. In those games, the ‘Boys have averaged 25.3 PPG and the ‘over’ went 5-2.

Defensively, the Cowboys own the better defense on paper (329 YPG, 20.2 PPG) but their current form is a tad alarming. While I won’t put too much stock into the meaningless shootout at the Giants last week, it should be noted that Dallas has allowed 26 PPG and 398 YPG in its last three games overall.

Prescott has only played in one postseason game and he was productive (302 yards, 3 TDs) but Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay proved to be too much in their 34-31 win in the 2016-17 Divisional Playoff matchup.

While Dak lacks playoff experience, the same can’t be said for Seattle QB Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are 8-4 in the playoffs with him under center which includes a respectable 3-2 mark on the road. The ‘over’ has gone 7-5 in those games while Seattle has averaged 25.3 PPG.

Fearless Prediction: This isn’t an easy game to handicap but I’d lean to Dallas based on its strong home tendencies and Seattle has been a bully this season, just 2-4 versus playoff teams and both wins came at home. For the total I’m leaning to the Over (43) in the game and I also believe Dallas will get at least five scores in this game, hopefully more sixes instead of threes. I’ll play the Cowboys Team Total Over (22 ½) as well.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - WC Sunday
Chris David

Sunday’s betting festivities kick off early at 1:00 p.m. ET as the Ravens and Chargers will meet in a quick rematch, this time the venue will be a tad cooler in Baltimore than the friendly temperatures of Los Angeles. The last Wild Card matchup of the weekend is set for 4:40 p.m. ET as the Bears make their first playoff appearance since 2010 while the Eagles have their eyes set on repeating as Super Bowl champions.

As mentioned in Saturday’s piece, the ‘under’ has gone 17-6-1 (73.9%) in the Wild Card round the last six seasons.

For the playoffs, I’m going to break down every game and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Sunday, Jan. 6

L.A. Chargers at Baltimore (CBS, 1:05 p.m. ET)

The Ravens defeated the Chargers 22-10 in Week 16 as four-point road underdogs in a primetime game played on a Saturday from Los Angeles and the ‘under’ (42 ½) cashed easily. And if it wasn’t for a pair of 60-plus yard touchdowns by Baltimore, one from its defense, the final score would’ve been much lower.

BookMaker opened the rematch (41 ½) a tad lower and its been pushed down to 41 but most other shops are still holding 41 ½ as of Thursday.

While Baltimore was fortunate to connect on two big plays in the first meeting, it clearly dominated the game in yardage (361-198) and it won the turnover battle (3-1) as well with the last mistake putting the game away in the fourth quarter. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers was sacked four times, picked off twice and only completed 23-of-37 attempts for 181 yards.

Outside of the long touchdown pass, Ravens rookie QB Lamar Jackson wasn’t sharp from the pocket (12-of-22) but he contributed with 39 of Baltimore’s 159 rushing yards. Since Jackson took over for Joe Flacco as the starting QB in Week 11, the Ravens are averaging 229 yards per game on the ground and the team is averaging 25.1 points per game. That production has led to a 4-3 ‘over’ mark and the Ravens defense (17.9) has done its best to keep those ‘under’ tickets cashing.

After losing at home to Baltimore, the Chargers finished the season with a lackluster 23-9 win at Denver and Rivers was far from sharp. He was picked off twice and only completed 14-of-24 (58%) of his passes against a Broncos secondary that featured more backups than starters. Rivers closed the season with two interceptions in each of his final three games. Which Rivers will show up on Sunday? I wish I knew but how you answer that question will obviously play heavily into your wager.

Make a note that Los Angeles was tied with New Orleans with the best road mark in the NFL this season at 7-1 and it’s arguably 8-1 since it beat Tennessee from London in Week 7. Including that results, the ‘over’ went 5-4 in games outside of L.A. for the club and they did score more on the road (26.9 PPG).

Some pundits believe that travel could play a factor for L.A. and it’s certainly not an easy trip. However, the Chargers went 3-0 in three games played in the Eastern Time Zone this season (Bills, Browns, Steelers) and they averaged 34 PPG in those wins. The ‘over’ went 3-0.

Prior to the recent encounter on Dec. 22, the pair split two regular season games from Baltimore in 2014 and 2015 and the outcomes were decided by a combined four points (29-26, 34-33).

As mentioned above, both clubs haven’t been in the playoffs in a few years but Baltimore’s 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS postseason record under head coach John Harbaugh is very impressive and only two of those games were at home. The totals were a wash (7-7-1) in those contests but in the lone pair from Maryland, the ‘under’ cashed easily in both as the Ravens allowed 11 PPG in the victories.

The Chargers have gone 4-5 in the playoffs under Rivers but he’s 3-0 in the Wild Card round and the ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in those games.

Fearless Prediction: While the Chargers have put up some crooked numbers on the road, this Ravens defense is legit and I can see them making a run similar to what San Francisco did in 2012 when they handed the ball over from veteran QB Alex Smith to the upstart Colin Kaepernick. Coincidentally, that team was run by Harbaugh’s brother Jim. For those that put stock into playoff trends, make a note that the first game (1:05 p.m. ET) on Sunday in the Wild Card round has watched the ‘under’ cash the last eight years. I’m going to ride the Under (41 ½) for the game and expect another grinder, this time on the East Coast.


Philadelphia at Chicago (FOX, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Of the four Wild Card matchups, this one is expected to be the most lopsided with the Bears listed as six-point favorites over the Eagles. The total (41) could likely be the lowest as well and as of Thursday evening, the number has held steady since it opened.

The best unit on the field will be the Bears defense, which is ranked first in scoring (17.7 PPG) and third in total yards (299.7) allowed. The group also led the league with 36 turnovers, which included a league-high 27 interceptions and nine fumbles. They were tied for third in sacks (50) and all of that production led to six defensive touchdowns.

Despite that domination, the Bears saw their total results (8-8) break even this season but it did close the season with four straight winning tickets to the ‘under’ and both the defense (10.5 PPG) and lack of offense (19.3 PPG) helped that cause.

Chicago’s offense remains a mystery but I believe what we’ve seen in the last quarter is what the unit is and not the one that posted 28.6 PPG in its first 12 games. The benefit of extra possessions and great field position from the defense helped the offense a lot and the numbers prove that. The unit was ranked 21st in total offense (343.9 YPG) yet they managed to convert well on third downs and in the red zone, which led to plenty of points. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky isn’t going to dice up any secondary but he’s efficient and makes a lot happen with his legs.

The Eagles defense (23 PPG) hasn’t been as strong on the road and the ‘over’ went 5-3 in those games, with one of the ‘under’ tickets taking place from London in a 24-18 win over Jacksonville in Week 8. The unit did shutout the short-handed Redskins 24-0 last Sunday in D.C. but they allowed 33.3 PPG in their three previous away games, all coming to playoff teams too (Saints, Cowboys, Rams).

The X-factor for this total and the game comes down to Eagles QB Nick Foles, who’s up to his old tricks again. Since taking over for the injured Carson Wentz in Week 15, the Birds closed the season with three straight wins and the offense posted 28.6 PPG in the wins. As a starter in second stop for Philadelphia, Foles has gone 9-2 and that includes a 3-0 playoff mark last year.

Are we going to witness another Foles run this January? The ‘over’ went 2-1 for the Eagles in last year’s championship push and he was fortunate to have the Birds defense step up at home (8.5 PPG) against the Falcons and Vikings. In the Super Bowl, he played outplayed QB Tom Brady and the Patriots for the 41-33 win.

Fearless Prediction: The ‘under’ on this game is the most popular total wager of the weekend and it’s hard to argue against it based on the form for the Bears. They enter this game on a 4-0 ‘under’ run and they’ve also covered all four of those games too. My lean on the side is to Philadelphia and when the Bears lose, only four times, they’ve allowed 30.1 PPG and the ‘over’ went 4-0. My lean for the late game is Over (41) and the Eagles Team Total Over (17 ½) as well.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Underdogs: Wild Card Weekend pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

The Los Angeles Chargers were fooled hard by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 of the NFL season, losing 22-10 as 4-point home favorites. It was an ugly game for the Bolts, who coughed the ball up three times and managed just 222 total yards of offense.

Books have Baltimore set as a home field-goal favorite to “fool” L.A. for a second time in three weeks during the NFL Wild Card Weekend on Sunday, but the only “shame” is leaving points on the table with the Chargers.

The Bolts went 7-1 SU and ATS on the road in 2018 and have a history of covering the spread as visitors, with a 21-8-1 ATS record in its last 30 road tilts going back to their days in San Diego. Los Angeles scores just under 27 points per road game and sits second in points per play as a guest, at 0.490.

While L.A. didn’t look great in its loss to the Ravens, it was successful at slowing down Baltimore rookie QB Lamar Jackson – something no team has been able to do. According to Sports Radar, Jackson picked up more than 20 percent of his total rushing yards after contact in his first five games as Baltimore’s starter but L.A. allowed only four total yards after contact, limiting the former Heisman winner to 39 yards in the ground – 27 of those gains coming on one run.

The Chargers defense is eager for another kick at the can when it comes to Baltimore and is playing well versus the run in recent weeks. Over their past three games, the Bolts have budged for just 3.9 yards per carry. That doesn’t bode well for a Ravens offense that has struggled to capitalize on scoring opportunities in their last three games, and one going up a defense that has plenty of tape on their unorthodox attack.

Baltimore has settled for field goals on too many offensive drives, attempting 11 total FGs in the final three outings of the schedule – making nine of those kicks. The Ravens’ rush attack has stalled inside the red zone, finding pay dirt on only 25 percent of their trips inside the 20-yard line in that three-game stretch, walking away with a TD in just three of their last dozen red-zone visits. Coincidently, Baltimore is 1-2 ATS in that span after going 3-1 ATS in Jackson’s first four starts.

When L.A. cracks this Ravens defense, which allowed 17 second-half points to Cleveland in Week 17, it will force Baltimore out of its game plan and be too much for them to battle back from.

Pick: L.A. Chargers +3


Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (+6, 41)

The Philadelphia Eagles are blowing the dust off the rubber dog masks for their Wild Card Round matchup in Chicago Sunday night, getting six points from the NFL betting odds.

The Eagles adopted the underdog role in last year’s Super Bowl run – despite being the No. 1 seed in the NFC - and have only been pointspread pups in three games all season, going 1-2 ATS in those instances.

Philadelphia is executing at a very high level entering Sunday, having played three games versus playoff teams (beating Houston and L.A. and losing an overtime game with Dallas that it should have won) then taking care of business in a must-win matchup in Week 17. Oh, and three of those four games were played on the road.

Plenty of that success has to do with American folk legend Nick Foles, who will someday be portrayed in a Disney movie by a “roided-up” Jon Heder. Foles has completed more than 76 percent of his passes over the past three games, thanks in part to his surprising elusiveness but also an offensive line that has taken on some elite-level pass rushers in those outings.

According to J.J. Stankevitz of NBC Sports Chicago, Foles has been pressured on just 20 percent of his drop backs in those past three games. And while he was sacked three times versus Washington, the offensive line has held big-name QB killers like DeMarcus Lawrence, Aaron Donald, and J.J. Watt at bay in recent matchups. Now, they stare down Bears wrecking ball Khalil Mack.

Chicago is very dependent on the pass rush to keep opposing QBs off their rhythm, allowing passers to complete just 61 percent of their throws on the season – 59 percent over the last three weeks. However, three of the Bears’ four losses have come with rival quarterbacks completing 67, 64, and 69 percent of their throws.

I don’t know if Foles adds a sequel to his feel-good flick with a Wild Card win in the Windy City, unless of course that movie is about Eagles bettors celebrating with the six points.

Pick: Philadelphia +6

Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 31-19-1 ATS

[StarDust Bum]

WC - Colts at Texans
Kevin Rogers

The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday afternoon with an AFC South battle between the Colts and Texans from NRG Stadium in Houston. Both these teams struggled out of the gate, but rebounded as the division sends two teams to the playoffs for the second consecutive season after Jacksonville and Tennessee made it in 2017.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

The Colts (10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) finally had a healthy Andrew Luck after the former top pick missed last season with a shoulder injury. Indianapolis fell into a 1-5 hole through six games, with the lone victory coming at Washington in Week 2 as six-point underdogs, 21-6. The Colts dropped their first two home games to the Bengals and Texans, while allowing at least 34 points in four of those defeats.

However, Frank Reich’s team would turn things around by picking up five consecutive wins to climb above the .500 mark, as the offense posted 27 points or more in each of those victories. After getting blanked at Jacksonville in Week 13 in a 6-0 setback, the Colts rebounded with four more wins to close out the season, including back-to-back victories over the Texans and Cowboys. Indianapolis clinched its first playoff berth since 2014 in a Week 17 winner-take-all triumph at Tennessee, 33-17 to finish 4-2 inside the AFC South.

The Texans (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) were a mess after three weeks, losing to the Patriots, Titans, and Giants to fall to 0-3. It looked like a long season for Houston, but the Texans ran of nine consecutive wins, including back-to-back overtime triumphs over the Colts and Cowboys to start the hot streak. During that winning streak, Houston limited opponents to 17 points or less six times, while picking up three double-digit home victories over Miami, Tennessee, and Cleveland.

Houston split its final four games, including losses by three points or less to Indianapolis and Philadelphia. The Texans wrapped up their third AFC South title in the last four seasons, while picking up the second-most wins in franchise history with 11 victories, coming one short of the 12-4 mark in 2012.

WHO TO WATCH

Luck threw for the second-most touchdowns in a season in his career (39), including an eight-game stretch in which he tossed at least three touchdowns. Running back Marlon Mack is coming off a career season by racking up 908 rushing yards in only 12 games, including a 139-yard effort against Dallas in the Week 15 home shutout. T.Y. Hilton is fighting an ankle injury, but the wide receiver eclipsed the 100-yard mark in each matchup against Houston, as he hauled in nine catches for 199 yards in the Week 14 triumph at Houston.

Deshaun Watson started all 16 games for Houston after missing the second half of 2017 with a torn ACL. The Texans’ quarterback threw 26 touchdowns and was intercepted only nine times, while rushing for five scores. Lamar Miller finished 27 rushing yards short of his third career 1,000-yard rushing season, but was limited to 82 yards in two meetings against Indianapolis. DeAndre Hopkins pulled in a career-high 111 receptions for 1,572 yards, including three straight 100-yard games to close the season.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

Indianapolis finished 4-4 away from Lucas Oil Stadium, while the OVER cashed in four of those road affairs. The Colts managed a 3-2 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog, including outright victories at Washington and Houston.

The Texans won six of eight games at NRG Stadium, but covered in only four of those games. Houston began the season 0-3 ATS at home before posting a 4-1 ATS mark in its final five home contests. The UNDER hit in five of eight home games, including in two of three affairs with AFC South opponents.

SERIES HISTORY

These two rivals split a pair of three-point outcomes with the road team coming out on top each time. In Week 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Texans entered Indianapolis in must-win mode after starting 0-3. Houston jumped out to a commanding 28-10 third quarter lead highlighted by two Watson touchdown passes and a Watson touchdown scamper.

However, Luck led the Colts back on a 21-3 run to end regulation, highlighted by a touchdown catch by Nyheim Hines with 45 seconds remaining. Indianapolis struck first in overtime with an Adam Vinatieri field goal, but Houston tied it with a field goal, then picked up the rare second three-pointer in the extra session to edge the Colts, 37-34 to cash as one-point favorites and hit the OVER of 48 ½. Luck finished with 464 yards passing and four touchdowns, but Indianapolis rushed for 41 yards without Mack.

The Colts picked up revenge in the second matchup in Houston in Week 14 with a 24-21 victory as four-point underdogs. After Houston scored an early touchdown, Indianapolis struck back for 17 second quarter points, as the Colts led the rest of the way. Luck finished one yard shy of 400 yards passing as Indianapolis captured its fourth win at Houston in the last five visits.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

Indianapolis has reached the postseason for the fourth time in Luck’s career since 2012, as the Colts have won two of three times in the Wild Card round. Both victories came at home, as Indianapolis lost in its last road Wild Card affair at Baltimore in 2012 by a 24-9 score. For the fifth time since 2011, the Texans are in the playoffs, as Houston owns a 3-1 record at home in the Wild Card round. Houston and Indianapolis are meeting for the first time ever in the playoffs, while the Texans are facing a division foe in the postseason also for the first time.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Handicapper Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on the initial Wild Card matchup, “Both defenses were very effective against the run in this rivalry as in the two games combined the Colts rushed for a total of 91 yards on 40 carries just fewer than 2.3 yards per rush. Houston was only slightly better on the ground with 208 rushing yards vs. the Colts over 60 carries just fewer than 3.5 yards per rush. Houston finished first in the NFL in allowing just 3.4 yards per rush on the season while only allowing eight rushing touchdowns this season. The Colts weren’t far behind finishing sixth in the NFL allowing 3.9 yards per rush.”

The quarterback play will be the difference in game, according to Nelson, “Luck is 3-3 in playoff games in his career with two road wins and he is the more established passer. Watson has won on the big stage in college and was sixth in the NFL in QB Rating this season. Both quarterbacks had good numbers in the regular season meetings with just one interception each. Luck is more prone to interceptions but Watson takes a great deal of sacks and has had a high fumble count. Watson was sacked 12 times in the two games between these teams while Luck was sacked just six times.”

FUTURE ODDS

The Colts and Texans are both two of the biggest long shots to win Super Bowl LIII as each squad sits at 25/1 at BetOnline.ag. Indianapolis and Houston are each 10/1 to capture the AFC title, while the Texans have dropped from a 2 ½-point favorite to a one-point favorite at most spots with a total of 48.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/30/2018 16-9-0 64.00% +30.50
12/24/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/23/2018 11-13-1 45.83% -16.50
12/22/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/17/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/16/2018 11-12-1 47.83% -11.00
12/15/2018 3-0-1 100.00% +15.00
12/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
12/10/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/09/2018 11-13-0 45.83% -16.50
12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

Totals...............75-63-0.....54.34%....+28.50

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Best Bets For December

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

12/30/2018............6 - 2................+24.00.....................7 - 5................+7.50............+31.50
12/24/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................1 - 0................+5.00...........+10.00
12/23/2018............6 - 3................+13.50.....................3 - 5................-12.50...........+1.00
12/22/2018............1 - 1.................-0.50.......................1 - 1.................-0.50............-1.00
12/17/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/16/2018............2 - 5................-17.50......................5 - 2................+14.00..........-3.50
12/15/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................2 - 0................+10.00.........+15.00
12/13/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-0.50
12/10/2018............0 - 1.................-5.50.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-11.00
12/09/2018............3 - 3.................-1.50.......................5 - 6.................-3.00.............-4.50
12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

Totals..................27 - 19...............+35.50....................26 - 24...............+8.00...........+43.50