Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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Sharps, public hammer Eagles' odds for NFL Week 16 battle vs. Texans
Patrick Everson

Coach Doug Pederson and Philadelphia are still alive in the hunt for an NFC playoff berth. The Eagles opened as 3.5-point home underdogs against Houston, but were bet up to 2.5-point favorites.

Week 16 of the NFL season has an intriguing 13-game Sunday slate. We check in on the action and line movement for four of those contests, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, supervisor at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: +3.5; Move: +1; Move: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2.5

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia kept its playoff hopes alive in Week 15, pulling off one of the bigger upsets of the season. The Eagles (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) went off as 13.5-point underdogs at the Los Angeles Rams in the Sunday nighter, but exited with a 30-23 outright victory.

Houston had its nine-game SU win streak (6-3 ATS) halted by Indianapolis in Week 14, but bounced back in Week 15. The Texans (10-4 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) beat the New York Jets 29-22 to push as 7-point road favorites.

Prior to the Eagles’ Sunday night upset, The SuperBook opened the Texans -3.5 for today’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Philly. However, the line was taken off the board during that Sunday night game, and when it was rehung Monday, the Texans were down to -1. The line quickly jumped the fence from there and is now 6 points from where it started.

“Almost all the money is on the Eagles, and it looks like some sharp bets as well,” Wilkinson said, noting wiseguys and the public are on Philadelphia. “I’m surprised it moved that much. They believe in Nick Foles.”


Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots – Open: -10.5; Move: -12; Move: -12.5; Move: -12; Move: -11.5; Move: -12; Move: -12.5; Move: -13; Move: -12.5; Move: -13.5

This 1 p.m. ET start looks like a nothingburger of a game, but New England is getting pounded at The SuperBook, after a rare two-game losing streak. Last week, the Patriots (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) lost to Pittsburgh 17-10 as 2.5-point road favorites, following a stunning last-second loss at Miami.

Buffalo put a 2-6 SU slide (3-5 ATS) to rest in Week 15, but just barely. The Bills (5-9 SU and ATS) edged Detroit 14-13 on a fourth-quarter touchdown, failing to cover as 2.5-point home favorites.

“That’s gonna be our biggest decision of the day,” Wilkinson said. “We’ve got a ton of liability on New England. Everybody and their mom is putting money on the Patriots. No sharp guys are betting on the Bills, either. We’re in a hole right now with the Patriots.

“Unfortunately, we’ll be rooting for the Bills, which is never a position you want to be in.”


Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints – Open: -6.5; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5

Pittsburgh had control of the AFC North a month ago, but now is in a dogfight with Baltimore, after the Ravens beat the Chargers on Saturday night. The Steelers (8-5-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) halted a three-game SU and ATS skid in Week 15 by holding off New England 17-10 as 2.5-point home favorites.

New Orleans is on the brink of clinching the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and can do so with a win in this 4:25 p.m. ET clash. The Saints (12-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) slogged their way to a 12-9 Monday night victory over Carolina as 6-point home faves in Week 15.

“Our liability right now is on the Saints, so we need the Steelers,” Wilkinson said. “But it’s not a big decision yet. I’m sure we’ll get much more money (today).”


Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks – Open: +2.5; Move: +2; Move: +1.5

Kansas City got some breathing room in its quest for the top seed in the AFC, thanks to the Los Angeles Chargers falling to Baltimore on Saturday night. In the Week 15 Thursday nighter, the Chiefs (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) blew a 28-14 fourth-quarter lead against the Chargers, losing 29-28 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Seattle put together a four-game SU streak to get into the NFC playoff picture, but stubbed its toe in Week 15. The Seahawks (8-6 SU, 8-4-2 ATS) were 3.5-point favorites at San Francisco and lost outright 26-23 in overtime.

“A lot of money on the Seahawks. A few five-figure bets, one at +2.5 and one at +1.5, from house players though,” Wilkinson said of the Sunday nighter, an 8:20 p.m. ET start. “The public for sure likes the Seahawks. We’re probably gonna need the Chiefs, but I think we’ll get some K.C. money late, so that game should even out some.”

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MNF - Broncos at Raiders
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Broncos (6-8 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) took a major hit to their slim playoff hopes by dropping their second straight game in a 17-16 home defeat to the surging Browns. Denver’s offense failed to come through once again after being held to 14 points in a road defeat at San Francisco the previous week. Since starting the season 2-0 at home, Denver fell to 1-4 in their last five games at Broncos Stadium at Mile High.

Denver actually led this game going into the fourth quarter at 13-10, but Cleveland took the lead early in the fourth on a Baker Mayfield touchdown pass. The Broncos made a crucial fourth down stop to take possession back late, but Denver could only reach midfield and turned the ball over on downs. Quarterback Case Keenum was intercepted twice and threw for 257 yards, as the former Vikings’ signal-caller was picked off for the first time since Week 8 at Kansas City. After posting back-to-back 100+ yard games against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, rookie running back Phillip Lindsay was held to under 30 yards for the second straight week (24 yards on 13 carries).

The Raiders (3-11 SU, 5-9 ATS) picked up consecutive covers as a double-digit home underdog against Kansas City and Pittsburgh, including stunning the Steelers in Week 14 at the Black Hole, 24-21. However, the Silver and Black crashed back to Earth in a 30-16 defeat to the Bengals last Sunday as three-point underdogs. The loss was the sixth in seven tries away from the Oakland Coliseum, while the Raiders fell to 2-5 ATS on the highway.

The Bengals jumped out to a 17-0 second quarter lead and never looked back as the Raiders’ lone touchdown came on a Derek Carr one-yard connection to Lee Smith (no, not the Hall of Fame relief pitcher). Oakland rushed for only 68 yards against Cincinnati, one week after putting up 55 yards against Pittsburgh, which is huge drop-off following a 171-yard ground effort against Kansas City in Week 14.

BUMPY ROAD

Last season, the Broncos picked up only one road win in eight tries, which didn’t come until Week 15 at Indianapolis. This season, Denver started 0-2 away from Mile High following double-digit defeats to the Ravens and Jets, but put together its most complete effort of the season in a Week 7 blowout at Arizona. The Broncos continued to stay competitive on the highway by covering in a loss at Kansas City and rallying past the Chargers as 7 ½-point underdogs in Week 11.

Denver cruised past Cincinnati in Week 13 as a four-point favorite, but crashed and burned the following week at San Francisco in a 20-14 defeat as the Niners built a 20-0 halftime lead and the Broncos scored a pair of late touchdowns to make the final score look closer.

UNDER THUNDER

Sticking with the Broncos, Vance Joseph’s team is riding a six-game UNDER streak dating back to a 19-17 home loss to the Texans in Week 9. Denver has not scored more than 24 points since dropping 45 points at Arizona in mid-October, while limiting the last six opponents to 22 points or fewer. All six totals in this stretch have sat between 45 and 47 ½, as Monday’s will be the lowest total for Denver since Week 7. By the way, in all three games that Denver has seen a total of 43 or less, the OVER has hit all three times.

THE FINAL HOLE?

There is speculation that the Raiders may be done in Oakland following the season with its pending move to Las Vegas in 2020. So does that mean this is the final game at the Black Hole if the Raiders go elsewhere for 2019? Two of Oakland’s three wins have come at home this season, but the team has lost to the Rams, Colts, Chargers, and Chiefs as an underdog. Yes, the Raiders have covered in their last two games at home, but this is their lowest underdog number at the Coliseum since a Week 8 loss to Indianapolis, 42-28 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs.

SERIES HISTORY

The home team has dominated this series since 2016 by winning each of the last five meetings. Denver rallied to stun Oakland in Week 2 at Mile High Stadium, 20-19 as the Broncos scored the final 13 points of the game. Brandon McManus booted the game-winning field goal with 10 seconds remaining to cap off the comeback, but the Raiders still picked up the cover as 5 ½-point underdogs.

Carr finished with 288 yards passing for Oakland with 116 of those yards going to star wide receiver Amari Cooper. The Raiders won’t have the luxury of throwing to Cooper, as he putting up tremendous numbers with the Cowboys after getting traded midseason. Lindsay rushed for 107 yards in the win, as the game finished UNDER the total of 44. Each of the past four matchups have gone UNDER the total, while Denver’s last victory at Oakland came in 2015.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

Under Joseph, the Broncos have lost two of three Monday night contests, including the 27-23 defeat in the final minutes to Kansas City back in September. The last time Denver won on the road on a Monday night came in the incredible comeback at San Diego in 2012 as the Broncos erased a 24-0 halftime deficit to stun the Chargers, 35-24.

The Raiders have dropped four of their last five Monday night affairs dating back to 2012. The last time Oakland and Denver hooked up on Monday night came in 2013, as the Broncos drubbed the Raiders, 37-21 as 16-point home favorites. Favorites have won the last five weeks on Monday night football, as the last road favorite to cover was New England back in Week 8 at Buffalo.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in for the Monday night season finale as he begins his breakdown with the offensive numbers for these AFC West rivals, “Both teams have fairly average offensive statistics with a slight passing edge for the Raiders and a slight ground edge for the Broncos. The per-game defensive yardage numbers are also nearly identical despite the contrasting reputations for these defenses though Denver has been significantly stronger in scoring defense and against the run.”

After the Broncos looked like they upgraded at quarterback in the offseason, Nelson notes that move has not paid dividends, “Keenum has ultimately been a huge disappointment after being the #2 QBR player last season while with Minnesota. He is currently 29th in that metric only ahead of Ryan Tannehill and rookies Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen among qualified players. Carr sits just two spots above Keenum as his star has certainly fallen from his great 2016 numbers.”

GAME PROPS – Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Case Keenum
OVER 240 ½ (-110)
UNDER 240 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Case Keenum
OVER 1 ½ (+110)
UNDER 1 ½ (-130)

Total Rushing Yards – Phillip Lindsay
OVER 75 ½ (-110)
UNDER 75 ½ (-110)

Total Completions – Derek Carr
OVER 23 ½ (-110)
UNDER 23 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Derek Carr
OVER 1 ½ (+120)
UNDER 1 ½ (-140)

Total Receiving Yards – Jared Cook
OVER 52 ½ (-110)
UNDER 52 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Broncos opened as 2 ½-point favorites at the Westgate last Sunday, as that number has moved up to 3 at most books. The Westgate released the total at 44 ½, but has gone to 43 ½ at many locations and even down to 43 at some books.

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Eagles' season on line, but early bettors hit Redskins' odds in NFL Week 17
Patrick Everson

The final week of the NFL regular season is shaping up to be a doozy, with playoff berths and positioning still very much in the air, beyond the certainty of the Saints being No. 1 in the NFC. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of key matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+7)

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia remains in the NFC playoff chase, though it needs to win and get some help in Week 17. The Eagles (8-7 SU, 6-9 ATS) blew a 13-point third-quarter lead against Houston, but got a field goal as time expired to claim a 32-30 victory as 1-point road favorites in Week 16.

Washington still had very slim postseason hopes heading into Week 16, but now is entirely out of the hunt. The Redskins (7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS) had a shot to beat Tennessee late, but Josh Johnson – the fourth QB of the year for the ‘Skins – threw a pick-six as time expired in a 25-16 loss as 11.5-point road underdogs.

“We opened the Eagles -7, took some money on the Redskins and moved to 6.5,” Murray said. “The Eagles are in the playoffs with a win and a Vikings loss, but the Redskins have been playing tough the last couple of weeks.”


Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)

Chicago has already clinched the NFC North and the No. 3 seed, but could move up to No. 2 and a bye with a Week 17 win and a Rams loss to the visiting 49ers. In Week 16, the Bears (11-4 SU and ATS) slogged their way to a 14-9 victory at San Francisco as 4-point faves.

Minnesota will make the playoffs with a Week 17 win and could still get there with a loss, though it would need some help. The Vikings (8-6-1 SU and ATS) trailed at Detroit 9-0 in the second quarter, then scored 27 unanswered points in a 27-9 victory laying 6.5 points.

“They had to move this game to the (later) time slot,” Murray said, noting this contest was originally set for 1 p.m. ET and was moved to 4:25 p.m. ET. “Otherwise, it would’ve given the Rams a big advantage. Los Angeles could have sat back and watched this game to see if the Bears win. If Chicago doesn’t win, the Rams clinch the bye. Vikings win, and they’re in.”

The line was still Vikings -6.5 late Sunday night, with bettors unsure of where to take the game yet.


Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Baltimore could win the AFC North, land a wild-card spot or miss the playoffs altogether, although a Week 17 win cements the division title and a postseason bid. The Ravens (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) won five of their last six games, including a 22-10 Week 17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers as 4-point road pups.

Cleveland is finishing up a very un-Cleveland like year, after going 0-16 SU and 4-12 ATS in 2017-18. Like Baltimore, the Browns (7-7-1 SU, 9-6 ATS) have won five of six, beating Cincinnati 26-18 giving 10 points at home in Week 17.

“We opened Ravens -6.5, then moved down to 5.5 to get in line with the market,” Murray said. “The Ravens win the AFC North with a victory here. But those Browns are dangerous.”


Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (no line)

Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last nine games and would be in the playoffs right now, though it must win in Week 17 to stay there. The Colts (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) went off as 10-point home favorites against the Giants in Week 16, but trailed 14-0 early and never led until a last-minute touchdown clinched a 28-27 victory.

Tennessee is in the same boat as Indy, as it’s a winner-take-all, loser-goes-home game. In Week 16, the Titans (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) beat Washington 25-16 giving 11.5 points at home, but lost quarterback Marcus Mariota to a stinger. Mariota’s status for this Week 17 Sunday nighter has not been announced yet.

“We’re waiting to hear on Mariota,” Murray said in noting why the line wasn’t posted Sunday night. “If he goes, this game should be around a pick ’em. If he doesn’t, I’d expect the Colts to be in the neighborhood of -3/-3.5.”

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MONDAY, DECEMBER 24
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DEN at OAK 08:15 PM

OAK +2.5

U 42.5

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Books push in Week 16
December 24, 2018
By Micah Roberts

Sunday's NFL Week 16 action had a little bit of something for everyone with last-second wins, playoff-clinching victories, records set, a couple back-door covers, and middles offering some bad beats. The handle was down with Christmas approaching, but the sports books didn't get away with much of an edge.

"Very small winner, light action," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. It's always slow the week after the rodeo and week before Christmas. I walked in (Mirage) at 8:00 a.m. and there were literally only three people in the book."

With the public not contributing as much, the MGM books were playing heads up mostly with the sharps to determine their Sunday results.

"Yeah, basically," Stoneback said, "but with the action, the public did have they didn't have a great day. Our day came down to one big $150,000 teaser that we won because of the Giants."

Only two underdogs won outright on the day, but it wasn't the New York Giants who lost 28-27 at Indianapolis after leading until the final minute. But the Colts were -9.5 so all the teasers chopped down one of the largest numbers of the week didn't get there.

One of the underdogs that won outright was the Jaguars, who captured a 17-7 win at Miami paying out +180 on the money-line. Wise guys bet the Jags down from +4 to +3. The Dolphins had won six of seven at home this season prior to the loss.

"The rest of the day was just a push," Stoneback said. "The Giants and Steelers games were good for us and we were the largest losers with the Vikings and Eagles. We got middled in the Eagles game."

The Steelers +6.5 at New Orleans were one of eight underdogs that covered Sunday, but their 31-28 loss bumped them out of the AFC playoff picture with one week to go. They'll get the Bengals next week (Steelers -15) while the division-leading Ravens are -6 at home against the Browns.

The Eagles closed at -2.5 over the Texans after opening pick 'em. Most books got burned on sharp action taking -1 and -1.5 early. The Eagles were also the fourth most chosen side of the week in the SuperContest with 711 contestants selecting them where the number was Eagles -2.5.

Quarterback Nick Foles threw for 471 yards and four TD passes and is once again saving the Eagles season, or at least extending hope as they need help next week to grab a Wild Card spot. It was Foles' 12th straight home win at Philly. Carson Wentz is good, but he's played two seasons and got hurt to end his season both times. Foles brought Philly it's only Super Bowl and he's a free-agent at the end of the season.

The Vikings came back from a 9-0 deficit at Detroit to win 27-9 and cover -6.5. The Vikings playoff future is in their hands. All they have to do is beat the Bears next week and they're in. That's all. The SuperBook posted the Vikings as 6.5-point home favorites despite the No. 2 seed still up for grabs in the NFC. That's an off week, a chance to rest starters. Should the Rams (-9.5) lose next week at home against the 49ers, and the Bears beat the Vikings, by virtue of the Bears 15-6 win over the Rams three weeks ago they get the No. 2. Long shot, but a possibility. The Bears beat the Vikings, 25-20, as 2.5-point home favorites in Week 11.

"We're going to end up either a very small winner or small loser based on tonight's game," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick."We need the Seahawks (+1) and Under (54). The Eagles, Vikings, and Bears were public winners. The Bills cover was good the books."

The Bears held on to win 14-9 at San Francisco covering a spread that started at Bears -4.5 but dropped to -3. The Bills got a TD in the final moments to close the margin, losing 24-12, but covering the 14-point spread, the largest number of the week which began at -12.5.

The Patriots win over Buffalo clinched an NFL record 10th straight division title. They also put themselves in a position to clinch the No. 2 seed in the playoffs as the Texans lost, which gives them a bye in the first round. Still, something doesn't look right with the Patriots passing game heading into the playoffs.

Another back-door cover happened in Cleveland. The Browns were up 23-0 and the late prevent defense prevented the Browns from covering -9.5, their largest number favored by since 2010, in a 26-18 win. The Bengals successful 2-point conversion after the final touchdown was the dagger. The Browns knelt down a couple times inside the Bengals 5-yard line to end the game. Big number, no cover. But it was a Browns sweep in the battle of Ohio and the Browns are now .500 at 7-7-1. Next year, playoffs?

And then there was the Sunday night game where the Chiefs went from -2.5 at Seattle to -1. Sharps were on the Seahawks and they were also the top SuperContest selection with 884 contestants selecting them. However, there was one guy who was on the Chiefs large.

"We'll have a nice decision tonight," Stoneback said of the late game. "We had a bettor take the Chiefs for $200,000 so I can now root for the Seahawks from both ends as a fan and for the house."

Just about every other book needed the Chiefs, and the Seahawks 38-31 victory took away some of the win on the day. The majority also got there with the total going 'over' 54.

Underdogs ended up going 8-5 against the spread on Sunday while the 'under' went 7-6.

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Tuesday’s 6-pack

Regular season records of last six Super Bowl champs:
2017: Philadelphia Eagles 13-3
2016: New England Patriots 14-2
2015: Denver Broncos 12-4
2014: New England Patriots 12-4
2013: Seattle Seahawks 13-3
2012: Baltimore Ravens 10-6

Quote of the Day
“I just wanted to be aggressive. I wanted to ensure that we had the opportunity to win the game. First of all, I liked the play … I thought where the game was and the time of which was left in the game, I thought that if we did not stop them, that we would have the opportunity you have the ball back. We did. Obviously, unsuccessful.”
Mike Tomlin’s feeble explanation about his unsuccessful fake punt Sunday night

Tuesday’s quiz
Which state is known as the Palmetto State?

Monday’s quiz
Before Army’s football team scored 70 points in their bowl game this weekend, West Virginia was the only college football team to score 70+ points in a bowl- they beat Clemson 70-33 in the 2012 Orange Bowl.

Sunday’s quiz
Brian Billick coached the Baltimore Ravens when they won their first Super Bowl title.

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Tuesday’s List of 13: Merry Christmas, everyone!!!!

13) Maybe the biggest downside of fantasy football being so popular is when guys don’t do so well at this time of year, they sometimes take a decent amount of grief from people who have them on their fantasy teams.

I have a fantasy baseball team and must admit that I take it pretty seriously, but I know enough to take it in stride when things don’t go my way. Fantasy football can be pretty random, as far as who gets targeted in the red zone, etc, take defeats in stride, please?!?!?!

12) Former NFL player/GM Matt Millen had a heart transplant over the weekend; the surgery was said to go well. Pretty amazing stuff medical people can do. Hope Mr Millen is back feeling well soon.

11) Tennessee Titans signed QB Austin Davis as insurance, with Marcus Mariota banged up and Matt Cassel his backup. Titans play Indianapolis for a playoff spot Sunday night.

10) Milwaukee Bucks are playing on Christmas Day for first time since 1977.

College basketball stats for Christmas morning…….
9) Teams that force the most turnovers:
Auburn, Virginia Tech, Manhattan, NC State

8) Teams with the best defensive eFG%:
Texas Tech, VCU, Old Dominion, Houston

7) Teams with the best offensive eFG%:
Gonzaga, Creighton, Virginia Tech, Northern Illinois

6) Teams with best 3-point %age:
Indiana State, South Dakota State, Virginia Tech, Creighton

5) Teams with best FT %age:
Hofstra, Toledo, LaSalle, Davidson

4) Most experienced teams in country:
Nevada, Jacksonville State, San Diego, The Citadel

3) Teams who have played hardest schedule so far:
Middle Tennessee State, Cal State-Fullerton, Kansas, Creighton

2) Teams whose subs play the most minutes:
Manhattan, Denver, NC State, New Mexico

1) I still can’t believe the Steelers faked a punt Sunday night in their own territory with a 28-24 lead and 4:10 left. Just a totally unnecessary risk.

Someone on Twitter said “You can’t judge the call by the result” The hell you can’t; pro sports are a result-based industry. You win, you’re a hero, you lose, you get fired.

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Tech Trends - Week 17
December 24, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

SUNDAY, DEC. 30

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men 1-5-1 vs. line at home this season, Cowboys on 5-1-1 spread run last seven TY. Dallas has won and covered last three meetings. Cowboys “under” 6-1 away TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cowboys and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers have dropped last seven SU this season (1-6 vs. line in those). Saints however only 1-3 vs. lien last four TY after after nine straight covers previous. Carolina “under” last four TY. Saints 6-1 vs. spread last seven reg season vs. Panthers (though L on Dec. 17).
Tech Edge: “Under” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. JETS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets 7-3-1 vs. spread last 11 in series, though Pats covered first 2018 meeting at MetLife on Nov. 25. Last five “under” in series, Belichick “under” 14-6 in reg season since late 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions have lost last five TY though 2-3 vs. line in those. Detroit also “under” last six this season. Lions have won and covered last three in series.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags won last week at Miami but still just 2-7-2 vs. line last 11 this season. Texans 5-2-2 last nine on board this season. Jags “under” 3-1 last 4 TY.
Tech Edge: Texans and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs have won SU last four meetings (3-1 vs. line in those games). Atlanta on first two-game win/cover streak of season entering finale. Bucs 3-1-2 vs. spread last six games TY. “Overs” 4-1 last five in series.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Falcons, based on “totals” and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins 1-5 SU and vs. line last six at Orchard park, only win was with Matt Moore at QB in 2016. Moore also won at Buffalo in 2011, so he’s only Miami QB to win or cover last seven at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Dolphins 1-5 vs. line last six on road this season.
Tech Edge: Bills, based on series and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 0-5-1 vs. line last six and 1-6-1 vs. spread last right TY. But Raiders just 1-6 vs. line last seven away TY. KC “over” 4-0-1 last five TY. Chiefs have covered 4 of last 5 vs. Raiders at Arrowhead after Oakland had fared well on road in series.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Surprisingly, Birds just 5-11-2 vs. spread in reg season play since late 2017. Philly has still won and covered last three vs. Skins, though Jay Gruden has covered last two in 2018. last five in 2018. Falcs have covered 5 of last 6 in series.
Tech Edge: Slight to Redskins, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Browns 5-1 SU and vs. line last six this season, though Ravens on 4-0-1 spread uptick themselves. Ravens “under” 3-0-1 last four TY, and “unders” last four in series.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bengals on surprise 3-game cover streak at moment, though Steelers have covered 5 of last 7 in series. Steel 0-3-1 vs. line last four as chalk TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bears have won and covered 7 of last 8 TY, though just 3-3 vs. spread last six away. Vikes have won and covered last two since DeFilippo dismissal, and have won last six as series host, covering last3 and 5 of those 6. Vikes “under” 6-2 last eight TY.
Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. CHARGERS at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts 6-1 vs. spread as visitor this season (not counting London neutral game). Denver streaky vs. line this season, but “under” trend since late LY has endured (14-4 “under” last 18 into Oakland on Monday).
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Chargers, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cards faltering down stretch, just 1-5 SU and vs. line last six TY. Meanwhile hawks on 8-2-1 spread surge into finale, and “over” 6-1 last seven. Cards have surprisingly won and covered last three and 4 of last 5 at Seattle since 58-0 loss in 2012.
Tech Edge: Seahawks and slight to “over,” based on recent team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners 6-1 SU and vs. line in last four games of season for Kyle Shanahan since a year ago. Rams only 3-7-2 last 12 on board this season. Niners actually 5-1 vs. spread last six in series.
Tech Edge: 49ers, based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Andrew Luck is 10-0 SU in games he has started against Titans in career, including 38-10 win at Lucas Oil on Nov. 18. Colts had been “under” five straight prior to Giants game. Titans only 2-4 vs. line last six TY and “under” 10-6 in reg season since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Colts and slight to “under,” based on series and recent “totals” trends.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, December 30

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DALLAS (9 - 6) at NY GIANTS (5 - 10) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (3 - 11) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 4) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (6 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 2) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 5-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (4 - 11) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 5) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 63-40 ATS (+19.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (8 - 7) at WASHINGTON (7 - 8) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (5 - 10) at GREEN BAY (6 - 8 - 1) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 110-80 ATS (+22.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 192-138 ATS (+40.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 69-43 ATS (+21.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (5 - 10) at HOUSTON (10 - 5) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (7 - 7 - 1) at BALTIMORE (9 - 6) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (6 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 10) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.
ATLANTA is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (7 - 8) at BUFFALO (5 - 10) - 12/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
MIAMI is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 6) at TENNESSEE (9 - 6) - 12/30/2018, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (6 - 9) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 6 - 1) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (11 - 4) at MINNESOTA (8 - 6 - 1) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
CHICAGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (11 - 4) at DENVER (6 - 8) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (3 - 12) at SEATTLE (9 - 6) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 11) at LA RAMS (12 - 3) - 12/30/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
LA RAMS is 190-239 ATS (-72.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 190-239 ATS (-72.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 147-190 ATS (-62.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 66-102 ATS (-46.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 17

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Trend Report
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Sunday, December 30

Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Carolina is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
New Orleans is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games at home
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
New Orleans is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Carolina
New Orleans is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Jacksonville is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games
Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Detroit is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 7-16-2 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Detroit is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 9 games
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games
Tampa Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Dallas's last 24 games
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas's last 11 games on the road
Dallas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Giants is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games
NY Giants is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
NY Giants is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of NY Giants's last 19 games at home
NY Giants is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
NY Giants is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Dallas
NY Giants is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
NY Jets is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
NY Jets is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing New England
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 9 games when playing on the road against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games
New England is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games at home
New England is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games when playing at home against NY Jets

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 13 games
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Buffalo's last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago's last 14 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
Minnesota is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games at home
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 14 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Oakland is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Oakland's last 21 games
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Oakland is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 12 games at home
Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Kansas City is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Oakland
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Baltimore's last 13 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games on the road
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Washington
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Philadelphia is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Washington
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Philadelphia's last 23 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Washington is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Washington's last 23 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Arizona is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Arizona's last 25 games on the road
Arizona is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Rams is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
LA Rams is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games at home
LA Rams is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 6-14-1 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
LA Rams is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 9 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
LA Chargers is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 12 games when playing Denver
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 12 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 3-8-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
Indianapolis is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 11 games on the road
Indianapolis is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games at home
Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17


Cowboys (9-6) @ Giants (5-10)— Cowboys clinched NFC East, have home playoff game next week, so this is meaningless for them. Dallas won three of its last four games; they’re 2-5 on road this year- they’re 5-4 vs spread as underdogs this year. Giants are 4-3 in last seven games, scoring 27+ points in five of those games; they were outscored 47-16 in second half of last three games. NY is 1-0-1 as a favorite this season. Dallas won 8 of last 10 series games, winning four of last six series games played here; Cowboys won first meeting 20-13 in Week 2, outrushing Giants 132-35. Three of last four Dallas games stayed under total; six of last seven Giant games went over.

Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (13-2)— Saints clinched #1 seed in NFC; this game means nothing to them. New Orleans (-6) nipped Carolina 12-9 in Monday night slugfest two weeks ago, but Newton is out now and backup Heinecke (left elbow) was banged up. Rookie Allen (4-4 for 38 yards LW) would get nod if Heinecke can’t go. Panthers lost last seven games (1-6 vs spread), dropping last four road tilts (they were favored in three of those). Saints don’t need this game, so proceed with caution; NO covered four of its last five home games. Last four Carolina games stayed under the total; Panthers stayed under their team total six of last seven weeks. Under is 5-1 in Saints’ last six games.

Jets (4-11) @ Patriots (10-5)— New England needs win here to clinch #2 seed and bye next week in playoffs. Patriots ran ball for 215 yards in 27-13 (-9.5) win at Swamp Stadium in Week 12; NE had 10 plays of 20+ yards, gained 498 yards for game. Patriots are 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last seven played here (41-3/26-6 last two years). Jets lost eight of their nine games; they’re 3-4 vs spread on road this year, two of five road losses by more than 7 points. Patriots split their last six games (2-4 vs spread); with WR Gordon gone, NE ran ball for 273 yards vs Buffalo LW. NE is 5-2 as home favorites this year, with five wins by 12+ points. Seven of last eight Patriot games stayed under total; last four Jet games went over.

Eagles (8-7) @ Redskins (7-8)— Eagles need win here and Viking loss to make playoffs; they beat Washington 28-13 (-6.5) four weeks ago, converting 7-13 on 3rd down, outgaining Skins 436-235. Philly won last three series games, by 13-10-15 points, after losing previous five in series- they lost three of last four visits here. Foles threw for 471 yards LW in 32-30 win over Houston; they won four of last five games, scoring 30-32 points vs Rams/Texans last couple games. Eagles are 2-4 in true road games, scoring 34-30 points in the wins; they’re 2-7 when they score less than 25 points. Redskins are playing their #4 QB; they lost five of last six games. Four of last five Philly games went over total; four of last six Redskin games also went over.

Lions (5-10) @ Packers (6-8-1)— Detroit led 24-0 at half, held on for 31-23 home win over Green Bay in Week 5; Packers threw for 423 yards, outgained Lions 521-264, but lost three fumbles (-3 in turnovers). Lions are 6-4 in last ten series games after a 1-15 skid; they won two of last three visits here, after an 0-24 drought. Lions lost seven of their last nine games; they’re 2-5 SU on road, 3-2 as road underdogs- Detroit got shut out in second half of last two games. Green Bay is 4-0-1 this season when they score 29+ points, 2-8 when they don’t; Packers are 5-1-1 at home this year, 3-3 as home favorite. Eight of last nine Detroit games, six of last nine Packer games stayed under the total.

Jaguars (5-10) @ Texans (10-5)— Houston needs win here and Patriot loss to jump up to #2 seed and first round bye. Texans (+5) won 20-7 at Jacksonville in Week 7; they had 16-yard edge in field position, in game where yardage was only 272-259, Texans. Houston is 12-4 in last 16 series games; Jaguars lost three of last four visits here. In their last four games, Jaguars scored two TD’s on 38 drives; they scored TD on special teams/defense in last two games. Jags are 2-5 in true road games, 1-2-1 as road underdogs. Houston won 10 of last 12 games with losses by total of five points; Texans are 3-4 vs spread as home favorites this season. Three of last four Jax games stayed under total; four of last six Houston games went over.

Browns (7-7-1) @ Ravens (9-6)— Ravens need win here to clinch AFC North and get home game in playoffs next week. Baltimore is 18-3 in last 21 series games, but lost 12-9 in OT at Cleveland in Week 5; Ravens didn’t score TD in game, kicking two FG’s in three trips to red zone. That was Mayfield’s first win as NFL starter- he threw for 304 yards. Cleveland has chance for winning season; they’ve won five of last six games, as Williams auditions for HC job. Browns are 3-3-1 as road underdogs this year. Ravens won five of last six games, covering last five; they’re 4-3 as a home favorite. Under is 3-0-1 in last four Cleveland games, 3-1 in Ravens’ last four. Under is 4-0-2 in Browns’ opponents’ total the last six games.

Falcons (6-9) @ Buccaneers (5-10)— Atlanta (-3.5) won first meeting 34-29 in Week 6, in game where Bucs outgained them 512-416. Falcons won last four series games; they’re 4-2 in last six visits to Tampa Bay. Average total in last five series games is 57.8. Atlanta won its last couple games, allowing 14-10 points; they’re 2-5 SU on road, 1-3 as road underdogs. Falcons are 4-1 when they allow 20 or less points, 2-8 when they allow more. Tampa Bay lost its last three games; they’re -22 in turnovers in their 10 losses, +4 in their wins. Bucs are 4-3 at home this year. 1-1-1 as home favorites- they were outscored 45-10 in second half of last three games. Five of last seven Falcon games stayed under total;

Dolphins (7-8) @ Bills (5-10)— Bills (+4.5) lost 21-17 at Miami four weeks ago, despite running ball for 198 yards and outgaining Dolphins 415-175. Buffalo is still 7-4 in last 11 series games, with four of last five decided by 6 or fewer points. Bills won five of last six series games played here. Miami is 4-8 in its last dozen games after a 3-0 start; Dolphins lost their last six road games, are 2-5 as road underdogs. In their last four games, Miami converted 7-37 third down plays. Buffalo lost three of its last four games; they’re 3-4 at home this year, 0-2 as home favorites. Bills are 1-10 when they allow more than 14 points. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Miami games, 3-1 in Buffalo’s last four.

Bengals (6-9) @ Steelers (8-6-1)— Pitt needs win here and a Cleveland upset over the Ravens to make the playoffs. Steelers won 28-21 (+2.5) at Cincinnati in Week 6, outgaining Bengals 481-275. Cincy lost last seven series games, losing 24-16/29-14 in last two visits to Pittsburgh. Cincy lost eight of its last ten games overall; they’re 2-5 on road this year, but 5-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Pittsburgh lost four of its last five games; they’re 4-3 at home, winning four of last five. Pitt is 3-3 as home favorite this year. Steelers’ last three losses were all by three points, as Tomlin continues to struggle with game management. Over is 5-2-1 in Bengals’ last eight games; four of last six Steeler games stayed under.

Bears (11-4) @ Vikings (8-6-1)— Minnesota makes playoff with win here or an Eagle loss; Bears can get first round bye if they win and Rams get upset by SF. Chicago won/covered eight of last nine games; in their last three games, they allowed only one offensive TD on 31 drives. Chicago is 4-3 SU on road, 1-0 as road underdog. Minnesota won its last two games, allowing one TD on 22 drives; Vikings won/covered their last three home games. Bears (-2.5) beat Vikings 25-20 in first meeting in Week 11, outrushing Minnesota 148-22 and scoring a defensive TD in only their 2nd win in last eight series games. Chicago lost its last six visits to Minnesota. Four of last five Viking games, last three Chicago games stayed under total.

Cardinals (3-12) @ Seahawks (9-6)— Seahawks won five of last six games; they’re 5-2 SU at home, 3-1-1 as home favorites- they ran ball for 196 ypg the last four weeks. Arizona lost its last three games by combined score of 93-26; Cardinals are 3-4 as road underdogs this year. Seattle needs win to get #5 seed and avoid going to windy Chicago (probably) next week. Seahawks (-3.5) won 20-17 in Arizona in Week 4, running ball for 171 yards even though they were 0-10 on 3rd down conversions. Teams are 3-3-1 last seven times they met; last six meetings were all decided by 6 or fewer points. Arizona won 34-31/26-24/39-32 in last three visits here. Six of last seven Seattle games went over total; under is 3-1 in Arizona’s last four.

49ers (4-11) @ Rams (12-3)— Rams need win to get #2 seed in NFC and get next week off; they beat 49ers 39-10 (-9.5) in Week 7, with +4 turnover margin. LA won only four of last six series games, but Rams rested 20 starters in SF’s win here in Week 17 LY. 49ers are 0-7 SU on road, with four of seven losses by 8+ points; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs- their last three games (all at home) were all decked by 6 or fewer points. Niners scored only one TD on 19 drives in their last two games. Rams are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games, losing two of last three SU; they ran ball for 269 yards in rout of Arizona LW. LA is 6-1 SU at home, 3-4 as home favorite this year. Under is 6-3 in 49ers’ last nine games, 3-1 in Rams’ last four.

Colts (9-6) @ Titans (9-6)— Mariota is banged up; Titans signed Austin Davis as #3 QB, have to check Mariota’s status- Cassel is #2 QB. Winner plays a playoff game next week; loser starts preparing for the draft. Colts (-1.5) thrashed Tennessee 38-10 at home in Week 12, their 17th win in last 20 series games. Indy won five of last six visits here. Indy won eight of last nine games, rallying back from down 14-0 at home to nip Giants LW. Colts are 3-4 on road, 4-3 vs spread. Tennessee won last four games, allowing total of 25 points in last three, giving up 2 TD’s on 27 drives). Titans are 6-1 SU at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Under is 4-1-1 in Colts’ last six games, over is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last five games.

[StarDust Bum]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



COLTS-TITANS FLEXED TO SNF

One of the simpler scenarios for this weekend is when the Colts visit the Titans as it’s winner-takes-all to decide the final playoff spot in the AFC. Because of this, the NFL has flexed the Colts-Titans to Sunday Night Football as it’s undoubtedly the biggest game of the week.

No odds have been set yet but it’ll likely be a tight line with the home team (Tennessee) favored by a point or two. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota was knocked out of Sunday’s game with a stinger — much like he was when the Colts smoked the Titans 38-10 in Week 11. Mariota has been bothered by the same injury all season but hasn’t actually missed a start since Week 3 and we’re expecting him on the field Sunday. There will, however, be the risk that he gets knocked out of the game yet again.

The Colts have won eight of nine and we’re a fan of backing the better quarterback in a big game — and that’s Andrew Luck. We’ll be backing the Colts when the line opens later in the week.


CJ ALL DAY

C.J. Anderson drew the start in place of the injured Todd Gurley and had himself a big day against Arizona, exploding for 167 rushing yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. Anderson found huge holes all afternoon, reminding everyone that he’s still very much an NFL-caliber back, which really shouldn’t come as much of a surprise after he posted a 1,000-yard season last year in Denver.

Anderson’s Week 17 outlook all comes down to Gurley’s knee. Reports say that Gurley planned to play but didn’t feel right during warm-ups, leading the Rams to sit him. The Rams aren’t necessarily in must-win mode, but if they lose on Sunday against San Francisco and the Bears beat the Vikings, they will drop to the third seed in the NFC and not get a first-round bye.

The 49ers held the Bears to just 90 rushing yards on 28 carries in Week 16 but it’s still a great spot at home as a 9-point favorite in a game that the Rams definitely want to win. Follow Covers’ Twitter feed for up-to-the-minute injury news and look to play the Over on Anderson’s rushing yards total if Gurley gets ruled out.


BIG BEN’S BIG DAY

The Steeler-Saints match was the game of the day yesterday and Ben Roethlisberger went off, as he tends to do in big games, completing 33-of-50 passes for 380 yards and three touchdowns. It wasn’t quite enough, however, as the Saints prevailed 31-28 when JuJu Smith-Schuster fumbled late with the Steelers already in field-goal position.

Pittsburgh now needs to win at home against Cincinnati on Sunday but also needs Cleveland to go on the road and beat Baltimore. The two games are being played at the same time (Sunday afternoon late slate), meaning the Steelers will be going full-tilt to crush the hapless Bengals. The line for the Steelers-Bengals has been all over the place and as of Monday morning, some books were offering Steelers -14, while others had them as high as -16.5.

While we fully expect the Steelers to jump out to a big league, there’s one caveat that’s keeping us from jumping on Pittsburgh at -14. Even though the Browns-Ravens game is being played at the same time, it will still have an effect on the Steelers as the out-of-town scores will be posted in the stadium. If the Ravens get up big, the Steelers could face a late-game letdown and then perhaps a back-door cover. For this reason, we’re going to jump on Pittsburgh to cover the first-half spread, which should be set at 8-10 when it opens later in the week.


CARSON CRUSHES CHIEFS

Chris Carson continued his hot run on Sunday night by posting a rushing stat line of 27-116-2 against the pathetic Chiefs’ run defense. Seattle locked up a playoff spot with the 38-31 win over K.C. but can clinch the fifth seed in the NFC with a home win over Arizona in Week 17. There are many playoff scenarios at play but the most likely outcomes would have the Seahawks visiting Dallas in Round 1 with a win and visiting Chicago with a loss. The Seahawks beat Dallas earlier in the year and lost to Chicago. There’s also the weather factor as no one wants to play in Chicago in January.

There seems to be lots of motivation for Seattle to play hard in its regular-season finale and that likely means a lot more carries for Carson. He faced a predictably easy matchup in Week 16 (and got us a winning bet with the Over on his rushing yards total) but he faces an equally soft matchup in Week 17 against a Cardinals defense that just got torched by C.J. Anderson (see above). Arizona ranked 24th in rushing DVOA heading into Week 16 and that number is only going to fall when the stats are updated following the Monday nighter. The Cardinals also rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game at 153.1.

Carson is averaging 23.6 carries for 108.3 yards over his last three and shouldn’t have any problem approaching those totals in Week 17. Take the Over for his rushing yards total when it gets posted later in the week.


SAINTS LOCK UP TOP SEED

The Saints locked up the top seed with yesterday’s win over Pittsburgh, meaning the road to Atlanta goes through New Orleans for the NFC’s playoff teams. This also means that the Saints have nothing to play for in Week 17 when they host Carolina. The Panthers, coincidentally, also have nothing to play for and have already shut down quarterback Cam Newton for the season.

Carolina’s offense was predictably bad in Week 16 and got us a winning bet with the Under for its team total. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke managed to throw for 274 yards on 33-of-53 passing but three interceptions did him in. Heinicke was also knocked from the game with an elbow injury but wound up returning after missing a few snaps. He was knocked around all day behind a terrible offensive line and it’s unclear whether he’ll be healthy enough to suit up in Week 17. If he can’t, Carolina will go with rookie Kyle Allen, who went 4-for-4 for 38 yards while filling in for Heinicke against Atlanta.

New Orleans hasn’t announced how it will use its starters with nothing to play for against Carolina but you can be sure the Saints won’t have their big guns on the field going at 100 percent all afternoon. We’d also expect them to use a fairly vanilla playbook in not wanting to give away any of their tricks before the playoffs. The lines haven’t been released yet but we’ll be looking to take the Under on the game total once posted.

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 17
Joe Williams

We're down to the final week of the National Football League regular season, and there is still quite a bit left to be determined. Normally, we have several teams already locked into playoff seedings with nothing left to play for, but that's just not the case this season. Sure, the top seed in the NFC has been determined, but there are plenty of division titles up for grabs in Week 17, as well as one winner-take-all Sunday Night battle to determine the AFC South winner. It's going to be a crazy week in the final games before the road to Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta.

Happy Holidays, everyone!

Sunday, Dec. 30

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-7, OFF)

The Cowboys won the NFC East Division title and are locked into the No. 4 seed, so they have nothing to play for. They're expected to rest several of their key players, which is why the total is off the board.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (OFF)

The Raiders are not going quietly into the night, knocking off the Steelers and Broncos in recent weeks. Of course, that was at home. The Chiefs have dropped two in a row, as they don't seem to want to lock down the AFC West Division or a first-round bye.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (OFF)

The Saints locked up the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, so it's expected they'll rest several of their key players. The game is off the board due to some uncertainty there, as well as the Panthers quarterback situation. QB Taylor Heinicke started last week, as QB Cam Newton is resting his shoulder with nothing to play for. However, Heinicke left last week's game due to injury, and while he was able to return, it's uncertain if he'll be the guy under center or not.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13, 45.5)

The Patriots still have a ton left to play for, as they can lock down a first-round bye if things go a certain way. There hasn't been a ton of early movement on this line, although the spread varies from -13 to -13 1/2 at most shops. If you like the Jets catching the points, the Golden Nugget is the place to be. They opened this line at -13 1/2. The total tumbled from 47 1/2 to 46 in a matter of hours on Christmas Eve, as there is some question as to whether QB Tom Brady (knee) is at 100 percent.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 42) at Washington Redskins

The legend of St. Nick continues to grow like the heart of the Grinch. QB Nick Foles pushed aside the first-place Rams in L.A. two weeks ago as a heavy favorite, and he rallied the troops past the first-place Houston Texans last week at home. Does this guy ever lose? The Eagles are favorites on the road against the *M*A*S*H unit known as the Redskins, who are limping to the finish line literally, and figuratively. The Golden Nugget opened the Eagles at -7, while most other shops have them at -6 1/2. Mirage-MGM and Stations also have the 'Skins catching a touchdown, if you're feeling them for some reason.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 45)

The Packers showed plenty of heart in an overtime road victory against the Jets last week, their first win away from Lambeau Field all season. Golden Nugget has already moved the Pack up from -7 to -7 1/2, as well as Mirage-MGM. At Southpoint the Pack are laying -8. The total has flown up from 44 to 45 1/2 at Caesars/Harrah's.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-7, 40.5)

Southpoint opened the Texans at -8, and it was quickly bet down to -7. Apparently bettors are feeling the Jags have no quit after eliminating the Dolphins on the road last week, 17-7, and not feeling the Texans who frittered away a late lead in Philadelphia. There has been little movement on the total, staying steady at 40 1/2 at most shops. However, Caesars saw the line slip from 40 1/2 to 40 during the course of Christmas Eve.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 41)

The Ravens can lock up the AFC North Division with a victory at home behind rookie QB Lamar Jackson. Hopefully for their sake Browns fellow rookie QB Baker Mayfield doesn't wake up feeling dangerous. The Browns have come alive, posting a 7-7-1 SU record this season, actually resembling an NFL caliber organization while securing a spot out of the basement for the first time in a while.

Bettors are apparently feeling Mayfield and the road team, as the line bumped down from -6 to -5 1/2 at Mirage-MGM. The same has occurred at Westgate SuperBook, as the line has toggled between -6 and -5 1/2 a couple of times since the open on Sunday.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 51)

These are two teams going nowhere and trying to avoid the basement in the NFC South Division. Still, there is plenty of interest in the game at the betting window.

At Caesars, the line opened with Atlanta as a pick 'em, moving to Tampa -1 1/2, but tumbling back to just -1 in favor of the home team. The Stratosphere opened the Falcs at -1 1/2, quickly moving to a pick 'em before bettors bet the Bucs up to a -1 favorite, too. Westgate has the visitors at -2 1/2 to open, but now the Bucs are -1, likely due to several injuries in the backfield for Atlanta.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 38.5)

The Bills host the Dolphins, who joined the Loser's Lounge last week with a terrible performance at home against Jacksonville to bow out of the playoff race. Bettors are feeling the Fins, betting down the line from -3 1/2 to -3 at the Strat as well as the Westgate, among others. If you shop around the total varies a bit, but all are rather low.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 45.5)

It's balls to the wall for the Steelers. They need to win AND they need help from an unlikely source, the Cleveland Browns. If Pittsburgh wins, they're in as long as the Browns can spring an upset in Charm City. Look for the Steelers to pull out all of the stops at home in Heinz Field against a team they handle.

There hasn't been a ton of variation on this line, staying at a flat -14 at most shops. However, Golden Nugget has the game listed at -14 1/2 if you want to fade the black and gold. The Strat opened the Steelers at -15, but that's been bet down to -14 within 20 hours. Westgate also had the home team at -15 1/2, but the money came in on the Bengals to bet it down to -14.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5, 41)

The Bears have locked up the NFC North Division title and are sitting pretty. The Vikings, well they still have work to do and will be playing with desperation. They're trying to hold off the Eagles for the final spot in the NFC playoffs.

Bettors are Caesars like the road team, as the line went from -6 to -5 1/2 in rather quick fashion. The Strat also had the line at -6 1/2, quickly moving down to -5 within less than 24 hours.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (OFF)

The Chargers are still very much alive for the AFC West Division title after frittering away a golden opportunity at home last week. However, they have to pull for an unlikely source, the Raiders, to spring an upset in K.C. Bolts fans do not usually cheer for silver and black.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (OFF)

The Seahawks clinched a playoff spot last week, and they aren't going to move up or down in their seeding. As such, they're expected to rest some bodies and Vegas is holding off to see what the home team decides to do.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-10, 50)

The 49ers have been a fly in the ointment for the likes of the Broncos, Seahawks, etc. and they gave the Bears a tough battle, too. Los Angeles is still in the mix for a first-round bye, but they need to keep their foot on the gas. RB Todd Gurley is not 100 percent and it's uncertain if he'll be ready to go Sunday or rested.

Bettors are feeling the Rams, as the line has bumped up at Caesars from -9 1/2 to -10, while moving from -9 to -9 1/2 at Southpoint. There has been very little money coming in on the Niners. The total has gained surprising attention, moving from 50 1/2 at Westgate, down to 49 1/2, back up to 50.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (OFF)

This is a winner-take-all battle for the AFC South Division championship, but it's uncertain who will be leading the Titans. QB Marcus Mariota aggravated his elbow injury last week and he was unable to return. QB Blaine Gabbert kept the team afloat, but the starting quarterback makes a huge difference in this one.

[StarDust Bum]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



CONNER ON TRACK

Steelers running back James Conner is practicing in full this week, putting him on track to return Sunday against Cincinnati. Conner has missed the last three games but should return to a full workload in a must-win game where Pittsburgh has to win and hope Cleveland beats Baltimore.

It’s a dream matchup for Conner as he faces a Bengals defense ranked 28th in rushing DVOA. Cincy has been absolutely destroyed via the ground game this season allowing 168.6 yards from scrimmage per game and 20 total touchdowns to the opposing backfield, most recently allowing 112 yards on 19 carries to Nick Chubb last week. We are a little wary of backing Conner’s rushing total in case Pittsburgh gets up big and decides to rest him, so we suggest backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


TANNEHILL’S MIAMI FINALE?

Reports out of Miami on Wednesday are that the Dolphins are expected to move on from quarterback Ryan Tannehill in the offseason. Doing so would save the organization $19 million over the next two years as no money in his contract is guaranteed. This means that Tannehill’s start on Sunday is likely his last in Miami as the Dolphins visit the Bills as a 3.5-point underdog.

Tannehill will have every reason to be motivated on Sunday as he auditions for a new contract elsewhere, but we will be looking to make it three straight wins by backing the Under on his passing yards total. The Bills are a very tough matchup, ranked second in passing DVOA and allow a league-low 182.7 passing yards per game. Tannehill has faced difficult matchups over his last two weeks and has faltered to passing yards totals of 108 and 146. We expect a similar number this week and suggest the Under on Tannehill’s passing yards total.


FOURNETTE LIMITED

Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette was limited at practice on Wednesday with ankle and foot issues. It was originally reported that he missed practice, but he did just enough to draw the limited tag. Regardless, it’s not a great sign for his availability on Sunday as Jacksonville visits Houston.

We backed a winner with the Under for Fournette’s rushing total last week and we’ll be looking to do the same this week, assuming he suits up. Houston boasts the top rushing defense in the league in DVOA and allows just 86.2 rushing yard per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL. Fournette received just 18 of 32 team carries last week and, with his injuries and the Jags’ season being long over, there’s just no reason to give him more than that this week. Take the Under on Fournette’s rushing yards total.


STAFFORD’S BACK ISSUE

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is practicing fully this week, which is a bit of a surprise after a back issue forced him to the sideline during the fourth quarter of Week 16. The injury has been bothering him for the last few games and it has shown on the field with passing yards totals of 116, 208, and 101 in his last three. This week, Stafford heads to Green Bay as an 8-point underdog to take on a Packers squad that showed in last week’s come-from-behind overtime win that it is still quite motivated. Weather will also be a concern as back injuries do not generally fare well in the cold and the current forecast is for temperatures in the low 30s. While we expect Stafford to be out there starting the game, we wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the early hook. Grab the Under for his passing yards total.


EKELER RETURNS

Chargers coach Anthony Lynn told the media on Wednesday that he expects running back Austin Ekeler to return to the field on Sunday when L.A. visits Denver. Ekeler has missed the last two games with a neck injury but should return to his third-down role for the regular-season finale.

The Chargers have already clinched but, as we mentioned yesterday, Lynn has said his starters will play and that the team is approaching Sunday like any other game. There’s also the fact the Melvin Gordon did not look 100 percent last week as he ran for 41 yards on 12 carries after missing the previous three games with an injury. Keeping Gordon healthy is a top priority for L.A.’s playoff chances and that could mean a few extra touches for Ekeler on Sunday. Ekeler excels as a passing-down back and Denver struggles covering passes to running backs with a rank of 20th in passing DVOA to the backfield. Take the Over on Ekeler’s receptions total.


LINDSAY OUT LONG TERM

Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay could potentially miss all of the offseason after suffering significant wrist damage in Monday night’s loss to Oakland, according to reports. This, of course, means Lindsay will miss the Pro Bowl after his impressive rookie season that saw him run for 1,037 yards on 5.4 yards per carry (tied for second-most in the NFL) and nine touchdowns. Denver hosts the Chargers on Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog and will use Royce Freeman as an early-down back and Devontae Booker on passing downs.

Freeman and Lindsay were rotating earlier in the season but Lindsay took full control after Freeman was injured in Week 7. Freeman returned in Week 11 but averaged just seven carries for 25.3 yards per game since. Freeman has been running at 3.6 yards per carry since returning from his injury and on Sunday gets to run against a Chargers defense that ranks ninth in rushing DVOA and has something to play for. L.A. can still end up with a first-round bye. All they have to do is beat Denver and hope that Oakland beats Kansas City. It’s not a likely situation, but it is possible and L.A. has to do its part by winning first — and shutting down Freeman in the process. Grab the Under on Freeman’s rushing yards total when the prop market opens.


CHARGERS CHARGE ON

Chargers coach Anthony Lynn told the media on Monday that his starters will all be playing on Sunday as they visit the Broncos as a 6.5-point favorite. "We’re going into this game no different than any other game," Lynn said. "We’re not worrying about resting people.” This makes sense seeing as the Chargers can still possibly gain a bye through the first round of the playoffs and especially since they’re coming off a home loss against Baltimore.

Week 17 is a bit strange when it comes to betting and motivation can be a huge factor. The Chargers are clearly motivated in this one and the Broncos are far from it. The Broncos have nothing to play for and are coming off an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss at Oakland.
Add in that multiple reports state that coach Vance Joseph will be let go at season’s end and we could be looking at a scenario where the Broncos just don’t show up on Sunday. We’re suggesting the Chargers at -6.5 before this line grows.


NELSON’S REVIVAL

Speaking off those Raiders, something has to be said about receiver Jordy Nelson’s revival as the veteran has put together receiving lines of 10-97, 6-48, 6-88, and 7-75 over the last month. Nelson has jumped to the top of Derek Carr’s favorite list, surging ahead of tight end Jared Cook.

The Raiders have nothing to play this week for but haven’t for a long time and we’ve still seen them put forth their best effort with wins in two of their last three. This week, they head to Kansas City as a 13.5-point underdog in what is really a great situation for Nelson. For one, the game script lines up perfectly as the Raiders should be playing from behind and throwing the ball all afternoon. Second, he faces a Chiefs defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against slot receivers, most recently allowing 7-126-1 to Doug Baldwin last week. We expect Nelson to haul in at least five passes on Sunday and we're grabbing the Over on his receptions total.


THOMAS HITS IR

The Houston Texans placed Demaryius Thomas on injured reserve after he suffered an Achilles injury on Sunday. It’s disappointing for all involved after the veteran never really managed to get involved in Houston’s offense after the Texans traded a fourth-round pick for him at the end of October. Rookie receiver DeAndre Carter had a big day after Thomas was hurt in Week 16, posting six receptions for 61 yards. Keke Coutee could also be a factor in Week 17, but his hamstring is still an issue and he hasn’t played a full game since Week 11. DeAndre Hopkins will, of course, stay heavily involved and might even see a few extra targets after posting receiving lines of 9-104 and 10-170-2 in his last two games.

Houston has made the playoffs but Sunday definitely matters as it hosts Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite. With a win and some help, the Texans could jump as high as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. With a loss, they would likely fall to the No. 6 seed. The Jaguars have a tough defense but they are a mess offensively and still haven’t named a starting quarterback for Week 17 after Blake Bortles closed out Week 16’s win in relief of Cody Kessler. They also have nothing to play for in advance of an offseason where there could be some major changes to the roster and perhaps coaching staff. We’re laying the points here and taking the Texans -7.

[StarDust Bum]

Underdogs to Watch - Week 17
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Will Dogs Face Uphill Battle in Week 17?

If you’re an NFL betting enthusiast that is looking for underdogs that are offering a great chance to cash in on their Week 17 NFL odds, then you’re going to enjoy the expert betting analysis and predictions that you’re about to get on three Week 17 dogs that look like they’re all going to challenge for the ATS cover at the very least this coming weekend.

While the vast majority of favorites on this week’s schedule have plenty of motivation to win and improve their chances of reaching the postseason, let’s get to my trio of expert Week 17 NFL picks featuring three underdogs that look like they’ll all challenge for the ATS cover in their respective matchups.

NY Jets (4-11) at New England Patriots (10-5)
When: Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
NFL Odds: New England -13.5
Total: 45.5

The New York Jets may have lost two straight games heading into their regular season finale, but they’ve played some very competitive football in each of their last three games. The Jets beat the Bills 27-23 in Week 14 before narrowly falling to Houston 29-22 the following week. While New York fell apart late to lose to Green Bay 44-38 in overtime last weekend, again, they've been very competitive recently if nothing else.

While the Jets are playing well right now, the same definitely can’t be said about Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Yes, the Pats picked up a 24-12 win over Buffalo last weekend to snap a surprising two-game losing streak, but they didn’t look very good as
Tom Brady was limited to just 126 passing yards with one TD and two picks. Prior to their most recent effort, New England lost to awful Miami 34-33 in Week 14 before falling against Pittsburgh 17-10 the following week.

There’s a reason why 61 percent of public bettors are backing the Jets to cover the chalk in this one and it’s because the Patriots have looked mediocre at best and New York is getting almost two touchdowns.

The Jets have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 16-7-3 ATS in their last 26 games in December. New England Patriots are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against their AFC counterparts and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 dates against the Jets.

I’m not expecting Tom Brady to play the entirety of this one, making the Jets a great underdog pick this weekend.

Pick: NY Jets +13.5


Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at Washington Redskins (7-8)
When: Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 4:25 PM ET
Where: FedExField, Landover, Maryland
NFL Odds: Philadelphia -6.5
Total: 42

Sure, the Philadelphia Eagles have looked fantastic in winning two straight with veteran backup Nick Foles back as the starter for an injured Carson Wentz, but Washington certainly isn’t going to roll over in this divisional matchup and regular season finale and the Redskins have a good enough defense to make this one a close affair if you ask me.

While Philly has put at least 30 on the board the last two weeks and comes into this contest off a thrilling 32-30 win over Houston last weekend, but Washington ranks a respectable 14th in points allowed (22.3 ppg) and they’ve got a running back that chew up the clock in the ageless Adrian Peterson and a veteran quarterback that is pretty careful with the ball in Josh Johnson.

I know Washington has struggled mightily since losing starting quarterback Alex Smith a few weeks back and that they come into this contest off a humbling 25-16 loss against Tennessee last weekend and they’ve beaten Philadelphia three times in their last four home dates against the Birds.

The Skins are also 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss while Philadelphia has gone 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against their NFC East division rivals and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. A lot of folks are backing the Birds to win and cover, but I’m thinking a field goal finish is just as likely.

Pick: Washington +6.5


Chicago Bears (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-6)
When: Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 4:25 PM ET
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
NFL Odds: Minnesota -5
Total: 41

Chicago has won three straight games and eight of their last nine games overall. The Bears come into this contest off a surprisingly difficult 14-9 win over San Francisco last weekend and they beat the Vikings 25-20 in Week 11 to cash in as a 2.5-point home favorite that day. Minnesota has looked a lot better the last two weeks after making a change at the offensive coordinator position. First, the Vikings absolutely crushed Miami 41-41 in Week 15 and then they man-handled Detroit en route to a 27-9 win last weekend.

However, for this season-ending matchup, you should know that Chicago is now the better statistical team on both sides of the ball and it would appear that young signal-caller Mitch Trubisky is now better than Minnesota veteran Kirk Cousins. The Bears ranks ninth in scoring (26.5 ppg) and third in points allowed (18.2 ppg) and I believe their excellence on both sides of the ball will be more than enough to help them cover the chalk against a desperate Minnesota team that needs a win here to punch their ticket to the postseason.

The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games and have won four of their last six road games outright. Chicago is also an unblemished 6-0 ATS in their last six games against their NFC North division rivals and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against the Vikings. I like Minnesota for the outright win, but Chicago has more than enough talent and desire on both sides of the ball to cover the chalk.

Pick: Chicago Bears +5

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Colts at Titans
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Indianapolis vs. Tennessee (NBC, 8:25 p.m. ET)

The SNF flex schedule was able to give us two different teams for the regular season finale and the stakes couldn't be any higher. This game between the Colts and Titans is truly a “win and you're in scenario” as the winner will either be a Wildcard team in the AFC, or a AFC South division champion depending on what Houston does and which team does ultimately win this contest.

That makes for an intriguing game all the way around, and with Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota's status still in question as he deals with a stinger, there is always more intrigue you can find with this game. So after cashing with a home underdog in last week's SNF showcase, is it worth it to back another home 'dog this week?

Odds: Indianapolis (-3.5); Total set at 43

Mariota's status forced some action on Indy earlier in the week, but from all reports now, it appears as though he should be alright to suit up. Whether or not that changes your opinion on this game drastically is up to you, but if backup Blaine Gabbert does see significant action in this game, I don't envision much changing for the Titans. After all, Gabbert did go 11-for-16 for 118 yards in clean-up duty in the first meeting with the Colts, and he's been around this division for half his career, so facing Indy will be nothing new to him.

Tennessee is a run-first, play strong defense team as it is, so even with the stakes as high as they are, whether it's Mariota or Gabbert, the Titans coaching staff aren't going to ask them to get out of their comfort zone. The bulk of the work if Tennessee is going to win this game will have to be done by a defense that got torched by Andrew Luck (23-for-29 for 297 yards and 3 TD's) in the first meeting. Two INT's by Tennessee QB's that day didn't exactly help the Titans cause, as the game was over by the early 3rd quarter.

However, those 38 points Tennessee allowed that day was the most this defense has given up all year long, and with an average of 8.3 allowed/game over their last three outings overall, I do expect this Titans defense to be up to the task. But what really cinches my feeling on this is the fact that there is that hook on the key number of -3 here and it's hard not to take those points with the home side in this spot.

Indy might be 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall, but they are just 5-3-1 ATS in that span, including a 2-3 ATS run more recently. The lone outright loss during that time came against a physical defense that's similar to what the Titans will bring to the table (Jacksonville), and this is still only the third time all year that the Colts have been road chalk. Indy's 1-1 SU and ATS in those previous two outings, but again, playing Jacksonville is more comparable – where Indy lost SU and ATS – than the road win against Oakland in this scenario, and at +3.5, the Titans still get that hook working in their favor.

So with that extra day of rest before this showdown matchup, the home crowd on their side, and a potential late SU loss by a FG still not affecting the ATS win/loss result for Tennessee, I'll be backing the home dog again this week on SNF.

Tennessee is on a 11-4 ATS run against winning teams, 7-2 ATS in their last nine division games, and 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 at home. With the home side on a 5-2 ATS run in this specific rivalry, I'll gladly take the points with Tennessee in this spot.

Best Bet: Tennessee +3.5