Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50

NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50


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Nfl Record For October......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/18/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/15/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/14/2018 15-9-1 62.50% +25.50
10/11/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/08/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/07/2018 14-10-0 58.33% +15.00
10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Total............36-24-1.........60.00%.....+48.00

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Best Bets For October

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/18/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................0 - 1................-5.50................-0.50
10/15/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................-5.50................-0.50
10/14/2018..............5 - 4.................+3.00....................4 - 6................-13.00..............-10.00
10/11/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00...............-0.50
10/08/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
10/07/2018..............4 - 5..................-7.50....................6 - 4................+8.00...............+0.50
10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

Totals...................12 - 11...................+4.50.................14 - 12...............-6.50.................-2.00

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Week 7 Best Bets - Sides
October 18, 2018
By Bookmaker

Week 7 NFL Best Bets – Sides

It was a clean sweep with the best bets from Week 6, as even Miami's QB situation making Miami +3.5 such a bad looking wager by kickoff turned out to work out in my favor. The Dolphins ended up beating the Chicago Bears outright, while that Cleveland blowout loss I had expected was coming soon, came thanks to the L.A Chargers last week.

Hopefully I can build on that 2-0 week in Week 6 with this week's best bets, but it's a tough betting board once again, and while there are a few sides I am currently heavily leaning towards, I can only really make an argument for one play at this time.

Here it is:

This is one of those games over in London, England, but unlike last week's London game, this Titans/Chargers contest is back to the 9:30 am EST start time that NFL fans have grown accustomed to with these overseas games in recent years. Keep that in mind if you are looking to play this later on in the week.

London games aren't ones I usually gravitate towards simply because of all the unknowns involved with the longer travel, time zone changes, etc. Clearly there are teams that are more willing and/or adaptable to figuring out the best ways to deal with a London game – Seattle hired sleep experts and travel experts to determine the best time to fly to London last week (ultimately late Wednesday evening for them) whereas Oakland decided to treat it basically like any other road game, arrived on Friday and subsequently got blown out.

Early travel reports have Tennessee leaving this afternoon (Thursday) to arrive in the wee morning hours tonight, while the Chargers have spent the week in Cleveland before leaving for London a bit later on Thursday. No real travel quarrels there, but this is still a brutal spot for the West Coast team.

To start, kickoff for the Chargers will feel like 6:30 am in terms of their body clocks, although spending the better part of the last week out East will mitigate some of that. But it's still move than 11,000 miles this team has travelled in a short span, and while the lack of extra-curricular activities in Cleveland might have been a plus in terms of practice and game-planning for L.A, they are still not surrounded by the comforts and familiarity of being at home for those days and dealing with that is not always easy.

So we've got a Chargers team that's got to be feeling a bit road weary by now, playing an extremely early body clock game and needing to win by a TD to cash a ticket? Not a spot I'd be looking to back by any means, and on spot alone, the Chargers are likely worth a fade in my opinion.

However, then you add this Titans team to the mix who looked downright dreadful a week ago in their 21-0 home loss vs Baltimore. Tennessee was sacked 11 times in that disaster of a game and looked like the worst team in football. That visual is one that many bettors will still have branded on their minds when they go to handicap the board this week, and based off that game alone, it would be tough to back the Titans.

But betting views aren't based off one game alone, and quite frankly, after such a bad game like the one Tennessee had last week, they've really got nowhere to go but 'up' now. That performance has given us probably about a point or two in value in terms of Tennessee's spread this week, and while they've got to deal with most of the same travel, time zone concerns the Chargers do, it's nowhere near the adjustment L.A players have to make.

The only other time this Chargers franchise has played over in London was back in 2008 when they lost 37-32 to the Saints. New Orleans led the entire way that day though, and a 37-20 lead 10 seconds into the 4th quarter was probably a more accurate scoreline for how that game was ultimately played. 10 years later the talent is different for the Chargers (Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates aside), but the same sluggish start could easily occur again given the entire scenario.

L.A is not a team I can truly trust to win this game big like this number would suggest, and Tennessee may be playing in front of foreign fans, but they have been waiting six days for a chance to redeem themselves after they got thoroughly beaten by the Ravens. This spread is simply just too big – probably too big even for a State-side game as I don't believe L.A should be -9.5/10-point home favorites if this game were in L.A – and with all the possible negative effects of playing in London more likely to affect the favorite here, I've got to take the points with this Tennessee team that the majority of bettors want nothing to do with this week.

The Titans defense should be able to hold their own against L.A, and the ferocious pass rush that Baltimore has is simply in the rearview mirror for Tennessee now. QB Marcus Mariota and Tennessee's offense will find ways to move the ball and put up points against this Chargers defense that allows 24 points per game, keeping this game well within this spread.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +6.5

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Week 7 Best Bets - Totals
October 18, 2018
By Bookmaker

Week 7 NFL Best Bets – Totals

Last week's plays in this piece were able to split the board, as the offensive barrage between the Chargers and Browns came to fruition, but Buffalo and Houston couldn't get the same result as they are still two franchises that are struggling mightily on offense right now.

Both of those squads are hoping their offense can get things going in tough road tests this week, and in Buffalo's case, they are hoping pulling former NFL QB Derek Anderson off the couch is the answer for them. Anderson does have quite a history with both HC Sean McDermott and OC Brain Daboll, so the transition to Anderson this week may not be as rough as many would believe for Buffalo, but it's still not a game I'd be interested in wagering on this week.

Instead, it's two divisional matchups (of the three) on the betting card this week that have grabbed my attention from a totals perspective. Division games tend to be ones filled with emotion and intensity and that is always something to be considered when looking at totals.

Hopefully these two divisional battles follow that idea as I do believe points will be relatively hard to come by for all four teams involved.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet #1: Dallas/Washington Under 41.5

It's always funny to me how the general media and even sports fan will tend to fall back into describing the entire NFL season based on what happens on a week-to-week basis. It was just a week ago that talks about the seasons being on the brink of being done for Dallas and Washington were dominating airwaves regarding these two teams, as Dallas had just inexcusably coughed up an OT game in Houston on SNF, while Washington went under the bright lights the very next day on MNF and became the Saints whipping boys in Drew Brees record-setting evening. That was after everyone had just seen the defending champs in Philly dismantle the Giants on TNF and proclaim that the NFC East is all but sewn up for the Eagles again.

Fast forward a week and seemingly everything has changed.

Dallas and Washington are both coming off wins now and sit tied atop the NFC East division with the Eagles. The Cowboys much maligned offensive roster finally got it done for 60 minutes last week by hanging 40 on a very good Jacksonville defense, while after getting shredded by New Orleans, Washington's defense responded well in a 23-17 win over Carolina. These two teams were basically left for dead prior to Week 6's action, and now just a few short days later, all of a sudden everything's fixed for both clubs, hope for a division crown is renewed, and the offensive struggles (at least with Dallas) are now cured? That seems to be the prevailing notion as least in terms of this total as VegasInsider.com currently has 70% of the action on the 'over' for this game.

Yet, I'm not about to let one 40-point effort, albeit against a very good Jacksonville defense, trick/convince me into believing all of Dallas' offensive woes are no more. That was only the second time all year the Cowboys scored more than 20 points, and so far this year, any 20 or more point performance by the Cowboys offense is always followed by a stinker.

The Cowboys started the year out with an offensive stinker against the Panthers, beat the Giants 20-13 the following week, and then came out on the wrong end of a 24-13 score vs Seattle the following week. Then there was the 26-24 win over Detroit, followed by the 19-16 OT loss vs Houston, before the 40-point barrage happened a week ago. That's simply a pattern I know, but it shows the bigger issue with Dallas' attack this year and that's consistency. This is not a team you can trust to put up 20 points in consecutive weeks – they haven't yet – and I don't see how that changes this week against a Washington team that knows this Dallas organization quite well.

On the flip side of things, Washington's record at home this year is 2-1 SU, but more importantly 1-2 O/U. The lone 'over' came by 2.5 points in a 31-17 win over Green Bay, but the other two Redskins home games have finished with 40 and 30 points respectively. This game against Dallas should fall somewhere right inbetween that 10-point range, as Washington is on a 1-3 O/U run as division home favorites, while Dallas is 1-4 O/U the last five times they've been on the road in a divisional matchup.

The Redskins formula for success this year has been to get an early lead and bleed the clock out any way they can afterwards. Against Dallas that shouldn't change, but it will be tough to get an early lead on this Cowboys defense. For all of the Cowboys shortcomings offensively this year, their defense has really stepped up and kept this team relevant in the NFC East chase.

The 'over' may be 5-0 the last five times these two have played, but those games also came with gunslinger Kirk Cousins calling the shots for Washington not the checkdown king Alex Smith. The 2018 version of both these clubs is vastly different than what we've seen from them in the past, as this game has a 20-17 finish for someone written all over it.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet #2: L.A Rams/San Francisco Under 52

The second divisional game where I believe the total is too high is this one out west between the Rams and 49ers. This is a game that presented much more promise earlier in the year when it could have been Jared Goff vs Jimmy Garoppolo, but with the latter done for the season, it's a game that's got somewhat of a predictable game script (for both sides) that should lead to this 'under' bet cashing.

For the Rams, this is the third straight week they've been out on the road and they are probably a little excited to get back home and play in front of their fans again. But three straight on the road brings plenty of fatigue with it, and with the Rams defense getting a little complacent late in games the past three weeks, it's going to be on their shoulders to completely shut down this undermanned Niners attack for the full 60 minutes.

L.A has gone 0-2-1 ATS the past three weeks because of their defense allowing teams to come back late on them, either for backdoor ATS covers, or to take the lead outright late. L.A has won all three of those games outright and should be able to remain undefeated here, but with fatigue being a potential concern, what's the easiest path for the Rams to have success this week? Continually hand the ball off, get great push from the O-Line and simply bully the 49ers into defeat. I expect that the ground game will be a big part of the Rams attack this week as they've got a clear advantage there, and it will help them shorten the game and move on with a W.

From the 49ers perspective, what's the best path to pulling off a shocking upset as big home dogs? Run the ball, move the chains, bleed the clock, and hope that your defense can make a key stop when needed. I don't believe the 49ers will pull off the outright upset, but the last thing they want from C.J Beathard and this offense is to go toe-to-toe with the Rams in a scoring fest. San Francisco is going to lose that style of game 9.5 times out of 10 here, and it's not like being uptempo has worked well for them lately as they've scored 27 or more in three of their last four, yet have lost all four of those games. Things have got to change if you're going to take down the best team in the league, and for the 49ers, that means they've got to shorten this game as much as possible to simply have a chance.

In a game that's likely going to be filled with plenty of running, I'm not sure how you can go anywhere but low on this total. Both teams should be more than willing to feature a heavy dose of the run in this game, and with a constantly running clock, asking this game to get 53+ points is a bit much.

With the 49ers 2-7 O/U the last nine times they've been home dogs of 5.5 or more points, and the Rams on a 3-9 O/U run on the road against a losing home team, look for this game to top out at 50 points as the Rams grab the lead early and look to get back home as quickly as possible with the victory.

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Top Total Plays - Week 7
October 19, 2018
By Bookmaker

By Kyle Markus

NFL Odds - NFL Top Totals Plays Of Week 7

At this point, the oddsmakers have to just be throwing up their hands in frustration. The scoring explosion in the NFL through six weeks has forced them to recalibrate the scoring total lines, and they keep on moving up. However, the teams just keep on scoring more and more, as the “over” has been a lucrative proposition in the first half of the season.

Bettors are catching on and pounding the “over” any chance they get. Will the trend continue in Week 7 of the NFL slate? Here are a top totals plays, and, yes, the “over” is still a mighty fine pick as the offenses are getting fat on touchdowns thus far in NFL gambling.

Odds Analysis - per BookMaker.eu

The Los Angeles Chargers’ offense is rolling right now, as quarterback Philip Rivers and running back Melvin Gordon are playing at an elite level. While “over” 45 points sounds enticing for Week 7, that changes once you get a look at the opponent. The Chargers are facing off against a Titans team that is playing some throwback, low-scoring football. Los Angeles is going to be forced into a style outside its comfort zone in this one, and the “under” is the easy call.

The Cincinnati Bengals are hitting the road this week for a matchup against the explosive Kansas City Chiefs. Both offenses have been good this year and both defenses questionable at best, which is why the total is at 58 points. Don’t be scared off by that high number. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is going to have another banner day and lift his team to a shootout win where the “over” is the correct call.

The Buffalo Bills have a bad offense already and now they are putting veteran Derek Anderson under center with rookie quarterback Josh Allen out a few weeks with an elbow injury. Their scoring total is listed at 43 points against the Indianapolis Colts. Indy has a star quarterback in Andrew Luck, but look for the Colts to build a lead and then step off the gas late. The “under” is the pick.

The Carolina Panthers are hitting the road to face off against the Philadelphia Eagles. While Carolina has star quarterback Cam Newton and the Eagles counter with Carson Wentz, both of these defenses are very good. Neither side is going to take a bunch of chances knowing the playmakers the others have, and thus the “under” on the 45-point scoring total is the pick.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense was roughed up last time out by the Cowboys. The Jaguars have a great track record on that side of the ball and should bounce back this week against the Houston Texans. However, the scoring total of 41.5 is quite low considering all of the playmakers involved in this game on both sides of the ball. A defensive touchdown is quite possible in this contest, and it will help the “over” hit.

Free NFL ATS Picks

As you can see, some of the games are expected to go “under” despite the majority hitting the “over” through the first six weeks of the year. And the best pick of Week 7 will also be an “under” call. The Minnesota Vikings defense has not been great this season but has the track record to dominate. It is going on the road to face a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold who has played well this season but is still prone to making mistakes due to inexperience.

Look for the Vikings to play really well on that side of the ball and keep the Jets in check. The “under” is the correct call on the scoring total of 46 points in this matchup. Some of these scoring totals have been inflated due to all of the offense early on, and this one is just too high. Take advantage by getting an easy win as the Jets offense will not live up to expectations in NFL gambling.

NFL ATS Pick: Take “under” 46 points on the Minnesota Vikings-New York Jets game

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New Orleans at Baltimore
October 19, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL Betting Preview – New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens

Drew Brees and the high-powered New Orleans offense visit Terrell Suggs and the top-ranked defense, as the New Orleans Saints take on the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday in a game that can be seen on FOX.

The Saints lead the league in points per game at 36 per contest, while the Ravens are leading the league in fewest points allowed at 12.8 points per game. The Saints come into this game with a record of 4-1, while the Ravens are 4-2.

Let’s look at Sunday’s game and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Sunday, October 21, 2018, 4:05 p.m. ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Ravens -2.5, O/U 50
Saints vs. Ravens TV Coverage: FOX

Did you know that the Ravens are the only NFL team that Drew Brees has not beaten in his career? Brees holds the NFL record for most career passing yards, as he passed Peyton Manning two weeks ago in a win over Washington. Brees has not thrown an interception in his last six regular season games. It is the longest streak of his career.

Brees needs just one TD pass to reach 500 for his career. "His vision is unbelievable. His pocket awareness is the best, and he's very accurate," Baltimore head coach Jim Harbaugh said to the media. "So he can see, he can find the open receiver, and he gets guys in position. They scheme guys open. He knows what he's looking at pre-snap, and he knows what he's looking at post-snap.”

The Saints are coming off their bye week and lead the league in scoring. They have a potent passing attack with Brees and Michael Thomas and a very good running game with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. "Everybody on the offense can make a play at any moment," Kamara said to the media.

Baltimore has given up just 270.8 yards per game and only 12.8 points per contest to lead the league in both categories. They also lead the league in sacks with 25, although that number is skewed because they got 11 last week in a win over the Titans. The Ravens have not allowed a touchdown in the second half of any game this season. It is the longest streak of any team since 1970.

Baltimore has also been efficient on offense, as Joe Flacco has thrown for 1,788 yards, with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. The Ravens have three solid receivers in Michael Crabtree, Willie Snead and John Brown and an effective running game led by Alex Collins.

Key Stats

The Saints are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series.
The Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
The Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Saints are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in October.
The Saints are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.

The Ravens are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games in October.

Looking at the total, the Over is 13-3 in the Saints last 16 games following a bye week.
The Under is 4-0 in the Ravens last 4 games overall.
The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Saints vs. Ravens Picks

When I look at the games each week I look primarily at matchups, but I do give credence to trends. There are a couple of trends that really caught my eye for this game on Sunday. Did you notice what the Saints have done following their bye week in the last ten years? They are a spectacular 9-1 ATS. Did you also notice what they have done in terms of the total coming out of their bye? They have gone over in 13 of their last 16 after the bye.

I am going to follow both of those trends this week and take the Saints plus the points and the game over the total.

Saints vs. Ravens Pick: Saints +2.5 and Over 50 at BetDSI
Saints vs. Ravens Score Prediction: Saints 30, Ravens 24

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Value Plays - Week 7
October 19, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Week 7 Value Plays of the Week

The Thursday night game that kicked off Week 7 of the NFL season proved to be a bit of a dud, as the Denver Broncos essentially had the game won before the end of the first quarter. Not a great viewing event for the neutral fan, but good for those of who didn’t really fancy staying up late.

There are some much better games ahead of us this Sunday, and as always, we have some plays that we think you should be taking a look at given the betting odds available for each.

We will have four games in all, so let’s get right to the action with all odds, props and futures are sponsored by YouWager.eu.

Tennessee Titans at LA Chargers (-6 ½)

I believed that the Tennessee Titans had turned the corner this season when they beat the Eagles in OT to take their record to 3-1. Since then, though, the offense had stalled dramatically and they Titans have fallen to a pair of straight losses, the latest of which was a shutout at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. They are on the road this week to face an LA Chargers offense that has been clicking all season long. The Chargers notoriously get off to a slow start, but at 4-2, they are right in the AFC playoff picture. It’s tough to see where the Titans offense is going to come from, which is why I like the Chargers to cover at odds of -110.

Minnesota Vikings (-3 ½) at New York Jets

I think it’s fair to suggest that we have yet to see the best out of this Vikings team this season, which is surprising given the strength of their defense and the fact that they now have a franchise QB. The problem with this team is that they have too often played down to the level of their opponent, which could again be a problem this weekend. The Jets are showing some signs of life as their rookie QB starts to adapt to life in the NFL, plus they have a solid record over the Vikings at home. That said, I think this could be a breakout week for Minnesota, which is why I like them to cover at odds of -110.

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New Orleans Saints (+2 ½) at Baltimore Ravens

This is one of those games where we get two teams with contrasting styles going head to head. Drew Brees and the Saints are all about the offensive games, while the Ravens are at their very best when the defense comes to play. Something has to give here, as both units cannot win the day here. For me, I am looking at what Brees has already achieved this season in terms of breaking records, and I see a man at the top of his game. I think he will find a way to open up that Ravens D and lead his team to a win. I am taking the Saints to cover at odds of +110.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (SU)

I always like to try and find a nice little longshot pick each week, but I do admit that I am taking a bit of a chance here. The Patriots have recovered from a very slow start to get to 4-2, courtesy of a 3-game winning streak where the offense has been on fire. The Bears have made a decent start to the season, but they will need to pick themselves up after a tough loss to the Dolphins last week. The thing that stands out here is that the Patriots have yet to win on the road this season. If the Bears D comes to play, they might just get the win at odds of +120.

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B]Week 7 Best Bets - Teasers
October 19, 2018
By BetOnline.ag[/B]

NFL Week 7 Exotic Betting Options

The switch over from teasers to a ML parlay proved to be unsuccessful last week as my two-teamer on the Colts and Steelers to each win outright was blown up early with the Colts in ability to ever really stay in striking distance against the Jets. New York being able to score 40+ was definitely a little surprising, and after WR Antonio Brown ran to the win for the Steelers in their game with Cincinnati, I lamented Indy's porous defensive effort in that game.

It's on to another week though and it's back to the old reliable teasers for me this week. Week 7 is another one loaded with spreads of +4.5 or lower, so there are some very tough games on the board. Including Denver's dominant win on TNF, nine of the 14 games on the card this week have point spreads of +4.5 or lower, so just from a numbers sense alone – teasing teams up/down through key numbers like +/-3, +/-7, and +/-10 – reverting back to teasers makes a lot of sense.

Hopefully, my undefeated year with these teaser plays stays intact, as there are two underdogs who I believe can keep their respective games within a single score.

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Week 7: Two-team, 7-point Teaser Best Bet
New York Jets (+10.5) – Carolina (+11.5)

I may not have been a believer last week in the New York Jets as my long-term view of this New York team being nothing more than a five or six-win club struggling to win two in a row was one I gave too much weight too. Indy may have had more rest, but they were still a banged up team that has a defense that hasn't really been able to stop anything all year. But backing the Jets this week is different on many fronts.

To start, they aren't home favorites like they were against the Colts, so winning this game outright is much less of a concern here. With that hook still hanging around on +3.5 for the Jets on the spread, New York is also a great teased play in the strictly numbers sense as seven points enables the Jets to go through the key numbers of +7 and +10 and still get a cash here.

Secondly, the Jets offense really impressed me last week with just how fluid all of their drives seemed to be. Lighting up the Vikings defense like the Jets did to the Colts isn't likely to happen this week, but the Vikings defense is still searching for ways to regain their dominant form from a year ago. Minnesota's defense can be had – they allow 29.3 points per road game this year – and with New York scoring 30+ in all three of their wins this year, New York should be able to go toe-to-toe with the Vikings attack all afternoon long.

A Jets outright win would not shock me in the slightest given that Minnesota could get caught taking this Jets team lightly (as I did a week ago) with in being a non-conference matchup and having a NFC playoff rematch with the Saints on deck. In fact, the next five games for Minnesota (New Orleans, Detroit, @ Chicago, Green Bay, @ New England) are extremely tough given it's three division games mixed in with two legit title contenders, so it's not like this is the greatest spot for the Vikings as it is. Having teased this number up through +10, it's just too many points not to take with the home side here.

Regarding Carolina, the Panthers are looking to be the 4th NFL team this year to take down the defending champs, although travelling to Philly when the Eagles are on extra rest isn't an ideal spot to back the Panthers ATS; at least at +4.5/5. But just like with the Jets getting teased up through the key number of +10, the Panthers get the same treatment here in what should end up being a game decided by just a single score.

The Panthers have not found success on the road this year so far with an 0-2 SU and ATS record, but neither of those defeats have come by more than a single TD. They also haven't lost two games in a row so far this year, which isn't much through five games but it doesn't hurt, and considering the strengths and styles of both teams in this matchup, it's hard to see this game not being a tight game throughout.

Finally, with teams like Philadelphia off a TNF win just 2-3 SU this year the following week, teasing up the Panthers to this number is just a smarter way to be safe here and give myself some more wiggle room. As a franchise, Carolina is on a 5-0 ATS run when coming off a SU loss and Philly's just 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, so even covering the +4.5/5 number is very realistic for the Panthers in this spot.

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 7
October 19, 2018
By Micah Roberts

There's no mystery with Miami's quarterback situation in NFL Week 7 action against the Lions. Ryan Tannehill's shoulder isn't ready to go so it's Brock Osweiler again and bettors at one chain of Las Vegas sports books are betting he doesn't fare as well as last week when he surprised the Bears top-ranked defense in a 31-28 win as 7.5-point home underdogs.

"We've had the most sharp play on the Lions this week," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "They laid -1, -2 and -2.5 and we're at -3 now. I guess they all don't think highly of Osweiler."

Can he do it again?

Last week it was 380 yards passing and three TDs for the man dubbed 'Brocktober' by the South Florida fans. Recent history has shown Osweiler having trouble stringing together two good games in a row. When bettors learned Osweiler was going to start last weekend they ran full speed to bet the Bears from -3 up to -7.

CG Technology books opened the game pick 'em on Monday while others left the game off the board. William Hill's sports books in Nevada and New Jersey opened the Lions -3 on Wednesday and have seen 86 percent of the cash since coming on the Dolphins as well as 57 percent of the tickets.

William Hill's most lopsided game of the week is the early London game with the Chargers getting 96 percent of the cash and 82 percent of the tickets written against the Titans. Because the Titans have lost their last two and the Chargers have won their last three, this looks a case of bettors believing what they saw last as gospel. Boyd Gaming books have the high number in Las Vegas at -7 EVEN with most others sitting at -6.5. From a historical perspective, the Titans have failed to cover the past 10 meetings with the Chargers.

"They (sharp money) bet the Colts and also took the Giants +5 in the Monday night game," Simbal said. "I don't know what the Giants angle could be. And they took the 49ers +10 also."

The Colts have been run up from -6.5 to -7.5 against the Bills at most books, but CG books are the lone -7 out there. Rookie QB Josh Allen (elbow) is out for the Bills and veteran Derek Anderson will start. The Colts get wide receiver T.Y. Hilton back this week.

The Giants have lost three straight while the Falcons just ended a three-game losing streak with a win and cover against the Buccaneers last week. The key stat here is the Falcons defense allowing 33 points per game and 472 yards per game at home. It's reasonable to believe the Giants can score on them as well. CG books started the Falcons -4 and slid up the ladder to -6 before sharps bet it back down to -4. The total is 54.5, and the crazy thing is that it's not even the highest total of the week.

The Bengals and Chiefs Sunday night game is 58.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and while most books have the Chiefs -6 the SuperBook has them a city-low at -5.5. William Hill books have seen 94 percent of their action come on the Chiefs and 90 percent of the tickets written on them as well. It's surprising that they're still at -6 with that type of divide. With it being the Sunday night game and the Chiefs being the only 6-0 team against the spread, this game is going to be noose of the day for the books.

"The public has played the Chargers, Patriots, and Vikings," Simbal said. "Sharp money also played the Vikings to move them off -3."

Professional bettor Jeff Whitelaw said he played the Vikings -3 at the Jets earlier in the week. It's -3.5 everywhere with Boyd Gaming moving to -4 EVEN. Yes, that's not a typo. It's -4 EVEN.

If you want to see the betting story of the Patriots at Bears, the most active sports book has been the South Point because they use exclusively flat number -- no -4 (EVEN) or 3.5 (-120) with that team. They opened Patriots -3.5 and ping-ponged back and forth with -3 and -3.5 and then eventually down to -2.5. Book director Chris Andrews has said in the past it takes multiple limit bets for him to get of -3.5, -3 and -2.5. They'll be rooting for the Patriots to win by four-points or more. CG Tech books are -2.5 -125 while every other book is -3 EVEN.

The 6-0 Rams opened as 11-point road favorites at San Francisco with CG Books and they've been bet down to -9.5 with large money. Boyd Gaming is using -10 EVEN, the highest number in town if still looking for some 49ers action.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 7
October 20, 2018
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Panthers are 10-0 ATS (16.0 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as a dog coming off a road loss where they failed to cover.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-10 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since Dec 02, 2012 as a favorite coming off a win as a favorite where they allowed less than 300 total yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-7 OU (-10.6 ppg) since Oct 15, 2017 coming off a win where Melvin Gordon rushed for at least 75 yards.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Eagles are 0-11 OU (-8.0 ppg) since Dec 24, 2000 as a home favorite coming off a win where they allowed at least 400 total yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 10-0 OU (8.8 ppg) since Sep 20, 2009 coming off a loss as a dog where they did not turn over the ball.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Bills are 11-0 ATS (+7.59 ppg) on the road off a road loss in which they held the lead.

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Total Talk - Week 7
October 20, 2018
By Chris David

The ‘over’ came out ahead again in Week with a 9-6 record and that pushes the high side to 51-42 (55%) on the season. It’s safe to say that 14 of the outcomes were never in doubt and the one outlier took place in Miami as the Dolphins led the Bears 7-0 at halftime. Due to the quarterback switch for Miami, this total closed at 40 ½ and looked like the right side after the first 30 minutes. Unfortunately for ‘under’ bettors, they watched Chicago come out firing in the third quarter with 21 unanswered points. Then, the Dolphins countered with their own big plays and rallied for the 31-28 upset win in overtime.

2018 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 6 9-6 10-5 7-8

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 51-42 47-46 42-47-4

2018 RESULTS - OTHER
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 6 2-2 2-1 2-1 1-0

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 13-11 13-13 12-5 5-2

The Coast-to-Coast angle connected again last week with the Chargers dicing up the Browns 38-14 in Cleveland. Another bread winner for total bettors early through six weeks has been playing the ‘over’ in games played indoors.

Keep an Eye On

-- We’ve only had four teams play off the bye so far but the ‘over’ is 4-0 in those games and the defensive units have been torched for 33.5 points per game which includes the effort by the Bears (28) and Buccaneers (34) last Sunday. Side bettors should note that teams with rest are 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, with Carolina being the lone winner albeit lucky against the N.Y. Giants in Week 5. This weekend, the Saints and Lions will be playing with rest.

-- There are five non-conference games on Sunday and looking above you can see that we haven’t had a dominating lean to the ‘over’ or ‘under’ through six weeks. For this card, I would keep an eye on the weather in these games. The Lions and Browns will be facing an unusual type of heat in Florida this weekend as they visit the Dolphins and Buccaneers respectively. Also, the windy conditions of Soldier Field may not be kind to the Patriots. Lastly, two indoor teams in the Vikings and Saints will also be out of their elements in road games at the Jets and Ravens.

-- The NFL International Series saw a lopsided affair last Sunday as Seattle dominated Oakland 27-3. Including that easy ‘under’ (48), the total results through 22 games played in the UK sit at 11-11. The Chargers and Titans will meet at Wembley Stadium in an early game (9:30 a.m. ET) this week.

-- The popular “Thursday Night Total” system stayed perfect last week and sits at 5-0 after the Chiefs and Patriots combined for 83 points. For new readers viewing ‘Total Talk’ for the first time, the angle calls for finding out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and playing the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. The Giants-Falcons matchup fits for Week 7 since New York played at home last Thursday versus Philadelphia. As bad as New York has looked offensively, this Falcons defense is a mess and we could be in store for another cracker on the scoreboard this Monday.

-- Another angle I noted last week came up empty with the "Road Total System." The trend calls for bettors to play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game. Baltimore and Tennessee fit in Week 6 and the Ravens blanked the Titans 21-0 at home. Including that low side result, the ‘over’ is now 44-24 (65%) over the last 12 seasons. If interested, this angle is in play again this Sunday as the Los Angeles Rams will be playing their third straight game on the road at San Francisco.

-- Totals in the fifties saw a stalemate (2-2) last week and through six weeks the ‘over’ is 12-9 in games that closed at 50 points or higher.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 7 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

New England at Chicago: 50 to 48 ½
Houston at Jacksonville: 44 to 41
New Orleans at Baltimore: 51 to 49 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 7 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

N.Y. Giants at Atlanta: Over 86%
Minnesota at N.Y. Jets: Over 85%
Detroit at Miami: Over 82%
Cincinnati at Kansas City: Over 77%
Houston at Jacksonville: Under 76%

For the second straight week, going with the leans produced a 4-1 record and all of the results were clear-cut.

Divisional Matchups

Houston at Jacksonville: This is one of the lowest totals (41) on the board and it’s justified, especially when you factor in the offensive numbers for both Houston (22.5 PPG) and Jacksonville (18.2 PPG). Plus, the defensive units for the Texans (22.8 PPG) and Jaguars (21 PPG) are in the top-half of the league in scoring. Last season, Houston only managed to score a combined 14 points in the two meetings against Jacksonville but it didn’t have QB Deshaun Watson available for either game. Even though the ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series, those outcomes were tight and expecting a shootout this week is a long shot.

Dallas at Washington: A good old-fashioned NFC East grinder is expected for this matchup with the total hovering between 41 and 42 points. Based on the home-away numbers for both clubs, it’s hard to argue for a high-scoring game. Dallas is averaging 12.3 PPG on the road this season and the Washington defense (18.3 PPG) has been very solid at FedEx Field. Both Dallas (4-2) and Washington (3-2) have leaned to the ‘under’ this season but the last five matchups in this series have watched the ‘over’ cash.

L.A. Rams at San Francisco: This week’s total between these teams certainly shows you how the new-look offensive game in the NFL is changing. In the last 30 meetings, 49 was the highest closing total in this series and that occurred in the 2004 season. Everybody knows that the Rams (32.7 PPG) offense is a machine and despite losing its starting QB, the 49ers (24.7 PPG) have managed to stay the course offensively. The issue for San Francisco is its scoring defense (29.8 PPG) and that unit has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 on the season. Since Sean McVay became the head coach in Los Angeles, the Rams have averaged 31.9 PPG on the road and that’s led to an 8-3 ‘over’ mark.

Under the Lights

Week 6 was the first time this season that the ‘over’ cashed in all three primetime games. Including this past Thursday’s result to the high side between the Broncos and Cardinals, the ‘over’ sits at 11-9 in games played at night this season and the oddsmakers are expecting more shootouts this weekend.

SNF – Cincinnati at Kansas City: This is the highest total (58 ½) on the board and it’s a hard to make a case for the ‘under’ based on what we’ve seen from the Chiefs offense (35.8 PPG) and their defense (28.7 PPG). Plus, the Bengals offense (29 PPG) has been clicking this season and their road production (30.7 PPG) has actually been better. All of those numbers have helped both clubs posted 4-2 ‘over’ marks on the season. Make a note that this game was flexed into the primetime slot and while it doesn’t seem like a big deal, it may play a factor and both teams are coming off tough losses in Week 6.

MNF – N.Y. Giants at Atlanta: The ‘over’ has gone 4-0 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season and fans have been treated to points by the Falcons (34.5 PPG) and their opponents (33.2 PPG). I actually thought this total would be a tad higher due to Atlanta’s defense but New York hasn’t shown much firepower on offense (19.5 PPG). While the Giants have struggled offensively, their two best scoring efforts came on the road at Houston (27) and at Carolina (31). Knowing Atlanta hasn’t been able to stop anybody, you can see why sharp bettors have jumped on New York in this spot.

Fearless Predictions

After dropping 10 cents in each of the last three weeks, we turned the tide in Week 6 and produced a profit ($195) and it could’ve been a clean sweep if the Bears didn’t explode in the second-half. The bankroll ($350) remains positive through 24 plays on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Minnesota-N.Y. Jets 46
Best Under: New Orleans-Baltimore 49 ½
Best Team Total: Over N.Y. Giants 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Under 56 New England-Chicago
Over 44 ½ L.A. Rams-San Francisco
Over 46 ½ N.Y. Giants-Atlanta

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Sunday Blitz - Week 7
October 20, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Patriots (-3, 49) at Bears – 1:00 PM EST

One month ago, New England (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) put up 10 points in a loss at Detroit to fall to 1-2. The Patriots, per usual, woke up and pulled off three consecutive wins in which they scored 38 points or more. The latest triumph came in a thrilling 43-40 victory over the previously undefeated Chiefs last Sunday night to finish off a three-game sweep at Gillette Stadium. Although New England failed to cash as 3 ½-point favorites, Tom Brady threw for 340 yards and rookie running back Sony Michel rushed for two touchdowns to lead the Patriots to their 11th straight home victory.

The Bears (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) return home after seeing their three-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 overtime setback at Miami last Sunday. Chicago’s defense was eaten up in its worst performance of the season by allowing its most points in regulation (28) and yielding over 540 yards to Miami. Mitchell Trubisky played his second consecutive solid game under center for Chicago as the second-year quarterback threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns, but the Bears fell to 0-2 ATS as a road favorite.

Now, Chicago is flipped to the home underdog role for the first time this season after defeating Seattle and Tampa Bay as a favorite at Soldier Field. Last season, the Bears put together a solid 4-0-1 ATS mark as a home ‘dog, while compiling an impressive 8-1-1 ATS ledger in this role since 2016. However, New England is 4-0 under Brady against Chicago since 2002, including a 51-23 rout at Gillette Stadium in their last meeting in 2014.

Best Bet: Bears 23, Patriots 21

Panthers at Eagles (-4 ½, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Two of the last three NFC champions meet at Lincoln Financial Field as these two squads are seeking their fourth win of the season. Carolina (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) faces its second straight NFC East opponent after falling at Washington last Sunday, 23-17. The Panthers closed as a one-point favorite but fell in a 17-0 hole before Carolina scored its first touchdown late in the second quarter on an athletic catch by wide receiver Devin Funchess. Carolina has been transparent from a home/away standpoint as the Panthers own a 3-0 mark at Bank of America Stadium, but are winless in two tries on the highway.

The Panthers will try to break through on the road against an Eagles (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) squad that is seeking back-to-back wins for the first time this season. Philadelphia put together its most complete effort in a 34-13 rout of the Giants last Thursday night to easily cash as 1 ½-point road favorites. Carson Wentz returned to his old form by tossing three touchdown passes, including two to Alshon Jeffery to end a four-game ATS skid.

Philadelphia held off Carolina last season in Charlotte, 28-23 to cash as three-point underdogs. Wentz connected on three touchdown passes, while Panthers’ quarterback Cam Newton was intercepted three times as Philadelphia won at Bank of America Stadium for the first time since 2009. The Panthers own a 6-3 ATS mark in the underdog role since the start of last season, but Carolina has dropped five consecutive road contests since Week 13 of 2017.

Best Bet: Eagles 24, Panthers 21

Saints at Ravens (-2 ½, 50) – 4:05 PM EST

New Orleans (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) returns from the bye week seeking its fifth consecutive win after losing the season opener to Tampa Bay. Drew Brees overtook Peyton Manning for the most passing yards in NFL history on a 63-yard touchdown strike to Tre’quan Smith in a 43-19 home rout of Washington in Week 5. Brees owns an incredible 11/0 touchdown to interception ratio this season, while the Saints have scored 43, 33, and 43 points the last three games.

The Saints will be definitely tested against this Ravens (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) defense, that has allowed 14 points or less in four consecutive games. Baltimore hasn’t yielded a touchdown in each of the past two weeks, while blanking Tennessee last week, 21-0 as the Ravens limited the Titans to a shade over 100 yards of offense. Since cashing the OVER in the first two games, Baltimore is currently on a 4-0 run to the UNDER, while New Orleans is off an OVER against Washington, but the Saints haven’t hit back-to-back OVERS this season.

Brees is winless in three starts against the Ravens since arriving in New Orleans in 2006, including a 34-27 setback at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in 2014. New Orleans has covered in five of its last six interconference games away from the Big Easy, including victories over Miami and Buffalo last season. The Ravens are back at home following a three-game road trip as teams in this situation in 2017 posted a 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS mark.

Best Bet: Ravens 26, Saints 23


Bears +3
Lions -2 ½
Panthers +4 ½
Bengals +6
Cowboys +2

Chris David (1-3-1 last week, 18-11-1 on season)
Bengals +6
Jaguars -5
Saints +2 ½
Rams -9 ½
Giants +5 ½

SURVIVOR PICKS

Kevin Rogers (5-1)
Colts over Bills

Chris David (5-1)
Colts over Bills

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 4-2 this season)

OVER 52 – Rams at 49ers

Last week, we went with the UNDER on the Rams in Denver as L.A. escaped with a 23-20 win on a 50 total. The Rams are coming off their lowest point total of the season, but this team is capable of dropping at least 30 points, which they have done five times. The 49ers are currently on a five-game OVER streak since cashing the UNDER in their opening week loss at Minnesota. San Francisco has scored 27 points or more in four of the past five weeks, while allowing at least 27 points in five consecutive contests.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

For the second consecutive season, the Jets own a 3-3 record through six games. New York welcomes in Minnesota, as the Vikings are coming off back-to-back wins over the Cardinals and Eagles. The Jets are listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, as New York posted an impressive 7-1 ATS mark in this role in 2017, including four outright wins. Dating back to last season, the Vikings have compiled a 1-5-1 ATS mark in their last seven opportunities as a favorite, including a non-cover in a tie at Green Bay in Week 2.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Colts opened up a 6 ½-point home favorite over the Bills as Indianapolis is coming off road losses to the Patriots and Jets. Buffalo will be without rookie quarterback Josh Allen due to an elbow injury, as the Bills turn to journeyman Derek Anderson this week. After that move at quarterback, the Colts moved to a 7 ½-point favorite as that line should continue to climb towards kickoff. Since Buffalo pounded Minnesota in Week 3 by a 27-6 count, the Bills have scored a combined 26 points the last three weeks.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Dolphins pulled off an impressive home overtime victory over the Bears last week to improve to 4-2 on the season and 3-0 at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami moved to 5-1 SU/ATS in its past six home contests dating back to last December, including four outright wins as an underdog. The Dolphins will start Brock Osweiler at quarterback once in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill as Miami hosts Detroit. The Lions are three-point favorites in spite of losing both road games this season and owning a 3-6-1 ATS mark in its past 10 as chalk away from Ford Field.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 7
October 20, 2018
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,123 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6

Week 7

1) Minnesota -3 (1,192)
2) New England -3 (966)
3) Kansas City -6 (886)
4) Detroit -2.5 (841)
5) Baltimore -2.5 (837)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 7 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Denver (-1.5) 200 Arizona (+1.5) 208
Tennessee (+6.5) 444 L.A. Chargers (-6.5) 722
New England (-3) 966 Chicago (+3) 605
Cleveland (+3) 300 Tampa Bay (-3) 743
Detroit (-2.5) 841 Miami (+2.5) 356
Carolina (+4.5) 591 Philadelphia (-4.5) 505
Buffalo (+7.5) 373 Indianapolis (-7.5) 435
Cincinnati (+6) 408 Kansas City (-6) 886
Minnesota (-3) 1,192 N.Y. Jets (+3) 307
Houston (+5) 371 Jacksonville (-5) 533
New Orleans (+2.5) 662 Baltimore (-2.5) 837
Dallas (+2) 516 Washington (-2) 713
L.A. Rams (-9.5) 348 San Francisco (+9.5) 485
N.Y. Giants (+5.5) 662 Atlanta (-5.5) 391
Consensus Results - 2017 | 2016

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 4-1 4-1 80%
2 0-5 4-6 40%
3 3-2 7-8 47%
4 3-2 10-10 50%
5 1-4 11-14 44%
6 1-4 12-18 40%

[StarDust Bum]

Essentials - Week 7
Tony Mejia

Sunday
Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers (-6.5/45.5) in London, 9:30 a.m. ET, CBS: The stereotypes about fog and rain can apply to London weather, but the forecast for Sunday’s encounter between the Chargers calls for sun and mild conditions. With that out of the way, the biggest variable will be the absence of L.A. standout running back Melvin Gordon, who is dealing with a hamstring injury and has been ruled out despite not originally appearing on the injury report until Friday. He’ll be replaced by Austin Ekeler and rookie Justin Jackson. Gordon has been fantastic over the past few weeks, scoring touchdowns in five straight games after being kept out of the end zone in the opener, so it’s no surprise that news of his absence has affected the spread, which is now back at 6.5 after looking like it would top 7 by kickoff.

Titans safety Kenny Vaccaro was originally expected back to strengthen the Titans defense after returning to practice earlier this week with a big elbow brace but is considered questionable. LB Wesley Woodyard (shoulder) will return after missing the last two weeks, but top pass rusher and former first-round pick Derrick Morgan (shoulder) joins Will Compton (hamstring) in sitting this one out. DT Bennie Logan (elbow) is going to play, but guard Quinton Spain (shoulder) is questionable, so Tennessee could be vulnerable on both fronts. The Chargers don’t have much of a homefield advantage in their soccer stadium in Carson, so spending a weekend as the “home” team in England won’t affect much. The Titans are 1-10 in their last 11 games against the Chargers, coming in 0-9-1 against the number over the last 10.

New England (-2/48.5) at Chicago, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski didn’t travel with the team to Chicago and isn’t likely to play, leaving veteran Dwayne Allen and second-year option Jacob Hollister to handle the workload. A back issue has caused the Pats to take the cautious approach and get him some rest. Tom Brady won’t have top tackle Marcus Cannon (head) protecting him either, so these aren’t ideal conditions for him to face the top defense he’s seen since losing at the Patriots and Lions in consecutive weeks last month. WRs Josh Gordon (hamstring) and Julian Edelman (heel) will play and figure to be heavily involved if he gets the time to work, while rookie RB Sony Michel (knee) is also going to be available.

The Bears will have star Khalil Mack in the mix after an ankle tweak and also upgraded corner Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and top WR Allen Robinson (groin) to ‘probable.’ Chicago has ranked fourth in the league against the run and haven’t surrendered a touchdown on the ground, so we’ll see whether the defense remains stingy here since their attention will be on making Brady uncomfortable. New England has won seven of eight in this series since 1988, losing only in 2000. They hung up 51 points in the most recent meeting at Foxboro back in 2015 and posted a 36-7 rout in their last trip to Solder Field back in 2000. The Patriots are looking for their first road win of the season. Temperatures are going to be in the 40s and wind won't be too much of a factor.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3.5/52), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: A defense that has struggled mightily all season will lose their leader for a week with Gerald McCoy (calf) ruled out. Fellow pass-rusher Vinny Curry (ankle) isn’t going to play either. Both were in the mix in last Sunday’s loss to Atlanta, which marked the fourth time in five games this season that the Bucs surrendered 30 or more points. Mike Smith paid for that with his job and has been replaced by veteran LBs coach Mark Duffner, who hasn’t been a coordinator since a stint with the Bengals more than 15 years ago. He’s got his work cut out for him and will be counting on LBs Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander to step up and lead.

The Bucs will have to deal with Cleveland top draft pick QB Baker Mayfield, who made the injury report due to an ankle injury but will be under center running an offense that will now be even more reliant on the talent of fellow rookie Nick Chubb. The Browns traded veteran RB Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville earlier this week after utilizing him to serve as mentor over the past few months, so Chubb and Duke Johnson will try and keep pressure off Mayfield via the ground game. Mayfield comes off a rough outing in a 38-14 loss to the Chargers after throwing two picks and being sacked five times. Jameis Winston made his first start since returning from suspension in Atlanta and will be making his first appearance at home this season.

Detroit (-3/47) at Miami, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The absence of QB Ryan Tannehill comes as no surprise this week, so the Lions have been able to dissect Brock Osweiler tape in preparation for this road game coming off a bye. Big plays helped take down the Bears at home in OT last week, but Osweiler wasn’t asked to do much besides get the ball out quickly and accurately. Pass rusher Ziggy Ansah has been ruled out for the Lions due to a recurring shoulder issue, but safety Tavon Wilson returns to aid secondary depth. Pass-catching RB Theo Reddick has been ruled out, so rookie Kerryon Johnson should expect more of a workload in keeping the Dolphins defense from keying in on Matthew Stafford.

Guard T.J. Lang will likely be back to help protect Stafford after sustaining the sixth concussion of his career and will have to deal with a pass rush bolstered by the return of Cameron Wake (knee). Corner Bobby McCain (knee) is expected back too. WR DeVante Parker is likely to miss another game with a nagging quad injury. Former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia comes off his first bye week as a head coach and will have had plenty of time to prepare for a former division rival, the first he’ll run into with Detroit. The Lions pulled out a 26-10 Week 3 upset of the Patriots but haven’t won away from home in two outings under Patricia’s watch, dropping one-possession games at San Francisco and Dallas. The weather forecast calls for hot weather that will feel like it will get up into the 90s, but the threat of rain in South Florida always exists and could factor in at any time throughout this contest.

Carolina at Philadelphia (-5/45), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Eagles looked a lot more like themselves in their latest outing, taking full advantage of the Giants’ limitations in posting a Thursday night blowout that gave them a few extra days of rest before facing this one. The time off definitely helped tackles Jason Peters (bicep) and Lane Johnson (ankle), both of whom will be working here. There were still a number of guys who couldn’t get back despite the extra time since RB Darren Sproles, corner Sidney Jones and safety Corey Graham have all been ruled out with lingering hamstring issues. Corner Jalen Mills did overcome his hammy ailment and will participate while DT Haloti Ngata is questionable. With fellow DT Tim Jernigan out, Philly is expected to lean on unproven Treyvon Hester, who was promoted from the practice squad. Cam Newton failed to complete a pass in the final few plays of last Sunday’s loss to Washington but has continued to run the ball more this season and gives the Panthers’ attack a variable that’s difficult to prepare for.

Rain could be a factor at the Linc and heavy winds are almost certain to be, which could favor the visitors since they’re less reliant on the passing game. The Eagles do lead the NFL in time of possession, so this will be a battle between two teams who look to utilize keeping their defense off the field as an advantage. Wind gusts of nearly 40 miles per hour are in the forecast. Philadelphia has ben excellent at home under Doug Peterson, coming in 10-3 while surrendering just over 10 points per game over their last 10. They haven’t dropped consecutive home games in years but are in danger of doing so here after falling short against Minnesota to open the month.

Buffalo at Indianapolis (-7/43), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Derek Anderson hasn’t played in a regular-season game since last January’s Wild Card loss to New Orleans but will start this one ahead of turnover machine Nathan Peterman despite only being signed on Oct. 7. Rookie Josh Allen will miss time with an elbow injury suffered in last week’s loss to the Texans. Peterman, who started the opener and multiple games last season, came in and through a touchdown in Houston but then ultimately cost the Bills the game by throwing a late pick-six. He’s expected to be released when Allen is ready to return. Buffalo is already playing its fifth road game of the season here and come in 1-3, having shocked Minnesota in Week 3.

The Colts badly need this win and have been placed in the favorite’s role for the first time all season. Indianapolis has given up an average of 39 points per game over the last three outings, all losses. The Jets scored a season-high 41 points against them and were never in danger of being stopped despite working with a banged-up receiving corps and a rookie QB. Andrew Luck has led the offense to 34 points in two of the last three weeks, increasingly looking like his old self as he shakes off the rust. It will help to have top target T.Y. Hilton back from a hamstring injury that kept him out of multiple games, but top tight end Jack Doyle (hip) remains sidelined. Erik Swoope, who has caught a pair of TD passes this season in Doyle’s place, is questionable with a knee issue. DE Margus Hunt is dealing with a similar ailment and is questionable, while DT Denico Autry and safety Clayton Geathers will miss another game, having been ruled out.

Minnesota (-3.5/45) at N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The injury bug continues to bite in Minneapolis, seemingly taking large chunks out of a Super Bowl contender every time it strikes. Rookie corner Mike Hughes tore his ACL to end his promising first season that already featured a game-changing pick-six, while safety Andrew Sendejo and DE Everson Griffen remain sidelined. DT Linval Joseph is questionable after missing practices this week with multiple ailments, but DEs Danielle Hunter and Tashawn Bower are expected to play. The Vikings offense is also down top RB Dalvin Cook, who hasn’t been right all season due to a linger hamstring injury. Latavius Murray will start again.

The Jets will have their RB, Isaiah Crowell, in the mix to join Bilal Powell in the team’s highly affected two-headed monster at the position. New York has clawed back to .500 and will be looking for a third straight victory after scoring over 40 points in a home game for the first time since 2012. Sam Darnold has thrown six TD passes against just two interceptions over his last three games in coming out of a rough stretch in losses to Miami and Cleveland. He’s looked like the most effective of the rookie quarterbacks but has definitely exhibited signs of being streaky. We’ll see if Minnesota’s depleted defense can get to him early to shake his confidence. That should be one of this game’s biggest keys. Gusty winds should be an issue for him and Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins since gusts are expected to top 40 miles per hour.

Houston at Jacksonville (-3.5/41.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Jaguars won’t have RB Leonard Fournette back from a hamstring issue that looks like it will linger into the next month or two, requiring the acquisition of Hyde, who doesn’t know the system well enough to contribute and will be held out this week. That means T.J. Yeldon is in for a heavy workload against the Texans as he looks to keep their feared pass rush from locking in on QB Blake Bortles.

The Texans had won six straight games from 2014-17 before Jacksonville swept last year’s season series, pulling no punches in securing a little revenge by outscoring Houston 74-14 despite the games being played over three months apart. As a result of when games were played, the Jags missed out on facing the real Deshaun Watson, who struggle in his debut in the season opener (12-for-23, 102 yards) and was injured by the time Week 15 rolled around. He had a run of four straight games throwing for over 300 yards end in last week’s win over Buffalo. Bortles threw for just 149 yards in a 40-7 loss to Dallas and has been dreadful in October, throwing for two scores and five interceptions after a promising September. He’ll be facing a Texans defense that gets back corner Andrew Hal, who will be playing his first game since winning a bout with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. Moderate wind gusts will be a part of the action in Jacksonville, but rain should stay away.

[StarDust Bum]

According to reports, Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill will miss today's game vs. Lions AS WELL AS Thursday's game @ Texans.
Today's Spread: DET -3
Today's Total: 47

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50

NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50


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Nfl Record For October......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/18/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/15/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/14/2018 15-9-1 62.50% +25.50
10/11/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/08/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/07/2018 14-10-0 58.33% +15.00
10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Total............36-24-1.........60.00%.....+48.00

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Best Bets For October

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/18/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................0 - 1................-5.50................-0.50
10/15/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................-5.50................-0.50
10/14/2018..............5 - 4.................+3.00....................4 - 6................-13.00..............-10.00
10/11/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00...............-0.50
10/08/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
10/07/2018..............4 - 5..................-7.50....................6 - 4................+8.00...............+0.50
10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

Totals...................12 - 11...................+4.50.................14 - 12...............-6.50.................-2.00