Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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NFL Today, Week 6
October 14, 2018
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Oct. 15

San Francisco at Green Bay, 8:15 p.m. First meeting for the teams in Green Bay since the 49ers beat the Packers 23-20 in an NFC wild-card game on Jan. 5, 2014. ... It's the 49ers' first Monday night game since opening the 2016 season with a 28-0 win over the Rams. ... 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman's 32 INTs since 2011 are the most by an active player in that time. All came with Seattle. ... Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has a 105.1 passer rating against NFC West teams since 2008, tops in the NFL. ... Rodgers has 36 games with three or more TD passes since 2012, second behind the Saints' Drew Brees (39).

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STARS

Passing

-Matt Ryan, Falcons, was 31 for 41 for 354 yards and three touchdowns in Atlanta's 34-29 win over Tampa Bay.

-Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, was 32 for 46 for 369 yards and a touchdown in Pittsburgh's 28-21 win over Cincinnati.

-Brock Osweiler, Dolphins, was 28 for 44 for a career-high 380 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in Miami's 31-28 overtime win over Chicago. He was playing because Ryan Tannehill was out (shoulder).

-Mitchell Trubisky, Bears, was 22 for 31 for 316 yards and three touchdowns and an interception in Chicago's 31-28 overtime loss to Miami.

-Case Keenum, Broncos, was 25 for 41 for 322 yards and two touchdowns and an interception in Denver's 23-20 loss to the L.A. Rams.

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Rushing

-Todd Gurley, Rams, had 28 carries for a career-high 208 yards and two touchdowns in Los Angeles' 23-20 win over Denver.

-Melvin Gordon, Chargers, had 18 carries for 132 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-14 win over Cleveland. It was Gordon's first career game with three rushing touchdowns.

-Latavius Murray, Vikings, had 24 carries for 155 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota's 27-17 win over Arizona.

-James Conner, Steelers, had 19 carries for 111 yards and two touchdowns in Pittsburgh's 28-21 win over Cincinnati. Conner has seven rushing touchdowns in six games, joining Franco Harris (1976) and Jerome Bettis (2004) as the only Steelers with that accomplishment.

-Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, had 24 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown in Dallas' 40-7 rout of Jacksonville.

-Frank Gore, Dolphins, had 15 carries for 101 yards in Miami's 31-28 overtime win over Chicago.

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Receiving

- Julio Jones, Falcons, had 10 receptions for 143 yards in Atlanta's 34-29 win over Tampa Bay.

- Albert Wilson, Dolphins, had six catches for 155 yards and two TDs in Miami's 31-28 overtime win over Chicago.

- Adam Thielen, Vikings, had 11 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota's 27-17 win over Arizona. It was his sixth consecutive 100-yard receiving game to become the first player in the NFL since 1961 to start a season with a streak that long. Thielen's 58 catches are the most in league history through six games.

- JuJu Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown, Steelers. Smith-Schuster had seven catches for 111 yards and Brown had five catches for 105 yards and the winning touchdown in Pittsburgh's 28-21 win over Cincinnati.

- Tyrell Williams, Chargers, had three catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns in Los Angeles' 38-14 win over Cleveland.

- Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos, had seven catches for 115 yards and a touchdown in Denver's 23-20 loss to the L.A. Rams.

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Special Teams

- Jason Myers, Jets, was 7 for 7 on field goals in the New York Jets' 42-34 win over Indianapolis. The seven field goals set a franchise record. He broke the Jets record previously held by Jim Turner (1968) - the kicker for the Super Bowl champions - and Bobby Howfield (1972).

- Jason Sanders, Dolphins, was 3 for 3 on field goals, including a 47-yarder as time expired in overtime in Miami's 31-28 win over Chicago. The 47-yarder is the second-longest game-winning field goal in overtime by a rookie since 1974. The record is held by Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein, who kicked a game-winning 54-yarder as a rookie on Dec. 2, 2012.

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Defense

- Johnathan Joseph, Texans, returned an interception 28 yards for a touchdown in Houston's 20-13 win over Buffalo.

- Morris Claiborne, Jets, returned an interception 17 yards for a touchdown in New York's 42-34 win against Indianapolis.

- Budda Baker, Cardinals, ran a fumble 36 yards for a touchdown in Arizona's 27-17 loss to Minnesota.

- Za'Darius Smith, Ravens, had three of a franchise-record 11 sacks in Baltimore's 21-0 win over Tennessee.

- Bradley Chubb, Broncos, had three sacks in Denver's 23-20 loss to the L.A. Rams.

- Frank Clark, Seahawks, had 2+ sacks and two forced fumbles in Seattle's 27-3 win over Oakland.

- Kyle Williams, Lorenzo Alexander and Jerry Hughes, Bills. They combined for five sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception in Buffalo's 20-13 loss to Houston.

- Kyle Fuller, Bears, had two interceptions in Chicago's 31-28 loss to Miami.

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MILESTONES

At least one game has gone to overtime in each of the first six weeks of the season, marking the first time that a season has featured at least one overtime game in each of its first six weeks. Sunday saw Miami beat Chicago 31-28 in OT. ... The Seahawks-Raiders game at Wembley Stadium had a London-record attendance of 84,922. ... The Browns honored future Hall of Fame tackle Joe Thomas by adding 10,363 - the number of consecutive snaps he played over 11 seasons - to the club's ring of honor. Thomas retired following last season, which came to a premature end for him when he tore his triceps. He grudgingly retired in March. ... The Ravens had a franchise-record 11 sacks in their 21-0 win over Tennessee.

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STREAKS & STATS

The Bengals are 8-25 against the Steelers during coach Marvin Lewis' 16 seasons, including 2-16 at Paul Brown Stadium, with two playoff losses. Overall, Cincinnati has lost 10 of 11 and 15 of 18 in the series. ... After hitting a 63-yard winner last week, Carolina's Graham Gano missed his first kick of any kind this season when he was wide left on the extra-point attempt following Cam Newton's TD pass to Devin Funchess against Washington. ... After an 0-3 start, the Texans have won three in a row to reach .500. ... After a 2-0 start, the Bucs lost their third in a row after a 34-29 loss to Atlanta. ... After a 2-0 start, the Broncos have lost four in a row. ... Houston's J.J. Watt had a sack to give him at least one in four straight games and leave him tied for the NFL lead with seven this season. ... Falcons star receiver Julio Jones has gone 11 straight regular-season games without a TD since a Nov. 26, 2017, victory over Tampa Bay, when he had two scoring catches. ... The Ravens dominated the Titans 21-0 as they outgained Tennessee 361-106 and punted only once. The Titans lost their second straight and were shut out at home for the first time since moving into Nissan Stadium in 1999. Tennessee has not scored a touchdown in eight straight quarters. The Ravens couldn't have looked much better in handing Tennessee its first shutout since Nov. 28, 2010.

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ROUGH HOMECOMING

Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald had five catches for 39 yards against the Vikings in his hometown. The 15th-year veteran fell to 0-6 in career visits to Minnesota, where the Cardinals have lost 10 straight games since they were in St. Louis in 1977.

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SIDELINED

Bills rookie quarterback Josh Allen was hurt when Houston's Whitney Mercilus hit his right elbow with his helmet after Allen's pass. Derek Carr and Amari Cooper both left the Raiders' 27-3 loss to Seattle in London with injuries. Carr was holding his left arm gingerly after getting sacked six times by the Seahawks. The bigger concern was for Cooper, the two-time Pro Bowl receiver who was evaluated for a concussion after a helmet-to-helmet hit from safety Bradley McDougald. ... Calvin Ridley, who was leading the Falcons with six touchdown catches, went out in the first half with an ankle injury and didn't return. Mohamed Sanu was sidelined in the second half with a hip problem after hauling in a 35-yard touchdown pass. ... The Buccaneers lost defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who walked slowly off the field in the fourth quarter with an undisclosed injury. Ravens left guard Alex Lewis was taken to Vanderbilt University Medical Center with a neck injury after being hurt within the first minute of the fourth quarter. Lewis had been blocking on a run by Gus Edwards when he turned away from the pile slowly and went down. Trainers strapped him to a backboard and carted him off the field. Coach John Harbaugh said there's a lot of optimism for Lewis, who was getting a CT scan at the hospital.

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SPEAKING

''We were just feeding off each other. We felt it early. I don't know if it was Conor McGregor or whatever it was.'' - Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott on the UFC star watching pregame before Dallas rolled to a 40-7 win over Jacksonville.

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''At times, especially when I do things - stupid is the only word that comes to mind. We do some silly things to ourselves, but when it comes to having fun playing, I'm having fun playing.'' - Colts quarterback Andrew Luck on his team's mistakes after a 42-34 loss to the New York Jets.

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NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50

NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50


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Nfl Record For October......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/14/2018 15-9-1 62.50% +25.50
10/11/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/08/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/07/2018 14-10-0 58.33% +15.00
10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Total............34-22-1.........60.71%.....+49.00

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Best Bets For October

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/14/2018..............5 - 4.................+3.00....................4 - 6................-13.00..............-10.00
10/11/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00...............-0.50
10/08/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
10/07/2018..............4 - 5..................-7.50....................6 - 4................+8.00...............+0.50
10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

Totals...................10 - 11...................-5.50.................13 - 11...............+4.50...............-1.00

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Betting Recap - Week 6
October 15, 2018
By Joe Williams

College Football Recap - Week 7

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 6 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 6-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-6
Against the Spread 7-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 58-32-2
Against the Spread 41-49-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 57-33-2
Against the Spread 50-40-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 50-42

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Dolphins (+7, ML +270) vs. Bears, 31-28 (OT)
Cowboys (+3, ML +150) vs. Jaguars, 40-7

The largest favorite to cover
Vikings (-9.5) vs. Cardinals, 27-17
Falcons (-3) vs. Buccaneers, 34-29
Seahawks (-3) vs. Raiders in London, 27-3

Same Old Song and Dance

-- The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots did battle on Sunday Night Football in Foxboro, and it might not be the last time we see these combatants face one another this season. The Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes are the new kids on the block, the challengers. The Patriots and QB Tom Brady are the prideful veterans not ready give up their throne quite yet. If this were an MMA battle, this would have been a split decision after going the distance. The Pats won, the Chiefs covered...and it was the first game in NFL history to end with a 43-40 score. The sequel, if there is one, might be even more fun.

Paying the Bills

-- The Buffalo Bills do not seem to care being double-digit underdogs. They headed to the Gulf Coast to battle the Houston Texans, and they were tied 13-13 late despite losing their starting QB Josh Allen (elbow) to an injury. A late pick-six gave the home team the win, but the Bills were able to cover as double-digit underdogs. As a single-digit underdog the Bills are 1-3 ATS. As a 'dog by 10 or more points the Bills are 2-0 ATS. Buffalo has been a favorite of total bettors, too, as the 'under' has connected in four straight.

Total Recall

-- There were three games generally in the same neighborhood on the big board. The Jacksonville-Dallas (39.5) battle was the lowest total on the board, and the home team ended up taking care of the 'over' themselves in the 40-7 win. Further south in the Lone Star State, the Buffalo-Houston (40) battle had just 33 points on the board when the dust cleared, and a late defensive score made the difference. The Chicago-Miami (40.5) game was also expected to be a defensive battle, especially once it was determined QB Brock Osweiler would start in placed of the injured QB Ryan Tannehill (shoulder), but it was quite an entertaining battle with 59 total points to easily cash the over.

-- The two highest totals on the board, Tampa Bay-Atlanta (57.5) and Kansas City-New England (59.5) weren't high enough. The Bucs and Falcons combined for 23 points in the fourth quarter to push the total over, while the Chiefs and Patriots hooked up for a total of 83 points. The other two games with totals of 50 or greater, Pittsburgh-Cincinnati (50) and L.A. Rams-Denver (50) ended up cashing 'under'.

-- The 'over' cashed for the L.A. Chargers in their road rout of the Cleveland Browns, and they're the only team in the AFC who hasn't had the 'under' come in at least twice (5-1). In the NFC, the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Atlanta Falcons have cashed in five of their six outings. The 'over' is also 4-1 for the San Francisco 49ers heading into their Monday night battle with the Green Bay Packers, who have also hit the over in four of their five outings.

-- The 'over' finished 2-0 in the first two primetime games with the Monday night contest pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 9-9 (50.0%). The 'under' had cashed in three consecutive Sunday night battles before the track meet between the Chiefs and Patriots.

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bills QB Josh Allen (elbow) left Sunday's game in Houston with an elbow injury, forcing QB Nate Peterman into action. He ended up tossing a pick-six in the final two minutes, costing the team in a 20-13 loss.

-- Falcons WRs Calvin Ridley (ankle) and Muhammad Sanu (hip) were each forced out of the Week 6 battle against the Buccaneers.

-- Jets WR Quincy Enunwa (ankle) turned an ankle in the shootout against the Colts and he was unable to return.

-- Raiders WRs Amari Cooper and Seth Roberts were each forced out of the battle with the Seahawks in London due to concussions.

Looking Ahead

-- The suddenly hot Texans, winners of three in a row, battle the Jaguars in Northeast Florida. The Jags head home from Dallas with their tails between their legs after a sound 40-7 beating. It might get worse, as they're just 2-6 ATS in their past eight home meetings against the Texans. The 'over' has cashed in three of the past four meetings overall, and three straight in Jacksonville.

-- The Titans and Chargers will lock horns in London. The 'under' cashed in the Week 6 battle between the Seahawks and Raiders, and the total has gone under in 50% (11-11) the first 22 contests played in the United Kingdom.

-- The 49ers return from home from Wisconsin to find the Rams waiting for them. That isn't a bad thing for San Francisco, as the Niners have covered five straight in this series, last failing to cover Nov. 1, 2015 on the road. They're 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the 'under' is 4-1 during the past five meetings in the Bay Area, too.

-- The Cowboys will travel to D.C. looking to take care of their rivals, the Redskins. Lately, they have been a nightmare for Washington. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings at home against the Cowboys, and they haven't beaten the Cowboys in five tries at FedEx Field since Dec. 30, 2012. The over has also cashed in three of the past four meetings in D.C., and five straight in this series.

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MNF - 49ers at Packers
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The 49ers (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) suffered their third consecutive loss and fell to 0-2 without Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting quarterback. After a valiant effort in a two-point road loss to the Chargers as 10-point underdogs in Week 4, San Francisco was surprised at home by a previously winless Arizona squad, 28-18. However, the final score doesn’t tell the entire story at Levi’s Stadium.

San Francisco outgained Arizona, 447-220 in the yardage department, while holding the ball for over 40 minutes. The nail in the coffin for the 49ers was five turnovers, including three lost fumbles and a pair of interceptions thrown by quarterback C.J. Beathard, who finished with 349 yards through the air. The difference for this struggling Arizona team was a 75-yard touchdown connection between rookies Josh Rosen and Christian Kirk, while the Cardinals’ defense returned a fumble recovery for a score as the two teams combined for 26 fourth quarter points to finish OVER the total of 40 ½.

The Packers (2-2-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) are trying to find their footing following an up and down start as Green Bay fell behind early in a 31-23 setback at Detroit last Sunday. The Lions built a 24-0 halftime lead before the Packers made it interesting in the second half by outscoring Detroit, 23-7. The normally reliable Mason Crosby missed four field goals and an extra point for Green Bay, while the Packers also lost three fumbles in the defeat.

Crosby knocked down a field goal in the final seconds for a late morale boost, as the Packers have allowed 29 points or more in their three non-victories. Aaron Rodgers tossed up 442 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, the first game this season that the Green Bay star quarterback has thrown for at least 300 yards. The bad news is Green Bay suffered its first divisional loss in three tries this season, as Detroit and Minnesota are the only teams in the NFC North without a defeat to a divisional foe.

ROAD WOES

In Kyle Shanahan’s first season as head coach of the 49ers, San Francisco owned a solid 5-2 ATS record in the role of a road underdog. However, that number has not transferred over to the season as the Niners have stumbled to a 1-2 SU/ATS mark away from Levi’s Stadium (all as an underdog). Granted, the competition has been stiff by facing the Vikings, Chiefs, and Chargers with the only cover coming in a 29-27 setback at Los Angeles in Week 4 as 10-point underdogs. In the first eight weeks of the season dating back to 2015, the Niners own a dreadful 0-15 SU and 5-10 ATS record on the highway.

UNDER THE LIGHTS

The Packers have won in three of their last four appearances on Monday night football dating back to 2014. The only loss in this stretch came last season against the Lions at home, but Rodgers was out due to the collarbone injury he suffered three weeks prior. The last time Green Bay lost with Rodgers starting and ending a Monday night game came in the infamous “Fail Mary” loss to Seattle in 2012.

Who would have thought that the 49ers own a nine-game winning streak on Monday night dating back to 2010? It’s true, the last time San Francisco fell on a Monday night was back in Week 2 of 2010 in a 25-22 home setback to New Orleans. During this nine-game hot streak, the Niners have covered eight times, including recent underdog wins over the Rams (2016) and Vikings (2015). The Niners haven’t played a road Monday nighter since 2014, when San Francisco went into St. Louis and routed the Rams, 31-17.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson points out the Packers should get on track simply due to their success at Lambeau Field, “Green Bay is 27-9-1 SU at home since the start of the 2014 season with a 22-14-1 ATS run though there has been a short term 3-5 ATS slide since last October. Many of those late season losses last season came without Rodgers and while the two-time MVP has played most of the snaps this season, he hasn’t matched his career numbers while playing at less than 100 percent since sustaining a knee injury in Week 1.”

The running game will definitely be a factor in this contest as both these teams are sitting in the top-10, “San Francisco and Green Bay have had surprising success running the ball, sitting 4th and 9th respectively in yards per rush this season. San Francisco is also in the league’s top 5 in yards per rush allowed defensively. Both teams are also in the top 10 in yards per pass attempt allowed as the defenses have posted more successful numbers than expected,” Nelson notes.

GAME PROPS

Total Completions – C.J. Beathard
OVER 22 ½ (-110)
UNDER 22 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – C.J. Beathard
OVER 1 ½ (+150)
UNDER 1 ½ (-180)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers
OVER 292 ½ (-110)
UNDER 292 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Aaron Rodgers
OVER 2 ½ (+120)
UNDER 2 ½ (-140)

Total Receiving Yards – Davante Adams
OVER 83 ½ (-110)
UNDER 83 ½ (-110)

Will Davante Adams score a touchdown?
YES (-130)
NO (+110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Packers opened up as 10-point favorites, but that number has dropped to 9 ½ at several books and even down to nine at the Westgate Superbook. The total hasn’t seen much movement, staying at 46 ½ for most of the week as both the Packers and 49ers are currently 4-1 to the OVER this season.

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Top Props - 49ers at Packers
October 15, 2018
By Bookmaker

By Kyle Markus

NFL Prop Bets - San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers have gotten off to a bumpy start in 2018 but a win on Monday night would keep them right with the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North. They should be able to get a win as they host the San Francisco 49ers in prime time. The 49ers had high hopes this season but lost starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a torn ACL early in the season and have just one victory.

There will be the standard pregame wagers available for this one, and there will also be plenty of prop bets. If a gambler can correctly peg how this game will play out, there are plenty of wagers on the docket that should be quite lucrative in NFL props wagering.

This NFL football game between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers will be held at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin at 8:15 p.m ET on Monday, October 15th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.

We'll have NFL football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

The Packers are being gambled on as 9.5-point favorites at home. They are the heavy -440 favorites on the moneyline while the 49ers are the +350 underdogs. The scoring total is listed at 46.5 points.

Beyond those standard wagers are all of the prop bets. There are a whole host of different ones to choose from, including which team scores first. The Packers are the favorite at -185 while the 49ers are the +150 underdog.

The timeframe for the first score is set at 6½ minutes. The questions is whether or not there will be a score in that amount of time elapsed, with both the “yes” and the “no” being wagered on at -115.

San Francisco’s total points are set at 18.5, which seems pretty low but not a huge surprise considering it has struggled with C.J. Beathard under center. The Packers’ scoring total is listed at 28.5 points. Green Bay has not been that dynamic offensively for most of the year but with Aaron Rodgers at the helm that type of output is always possible.

The longest touchdown of the game prop is set at a distance of 43.5, with gamblers deciding whether a touchdown will surpass that yardage number or not.

For those prop bettors who want to see a boatload of punts, there is even a wager for that. The over/under on the number of punts for this game is set at 8.5.

A defensive touchdown isn’t expected in this game, but it certainly isn’t out of the question. The “yes” option on seeing one is listed at +180, with the “no” the -235 favorites.

The line for the largest lead in the game for either team is listed at 17.5 points. The Packers are the favorites and they are expected to eventually pull ahead, but it’s fair to wonder if they will get up by this many points.

Free NFL ATS Picks

The best wager comes on the question of who will be the first player to score a touchdown in this matchup. Packers wide receiver Davante Adams has the best odds at +600, followed by Green Bay tight end Jimmy Graham at +800 and running back Aaron Jones at +900. The 49ers’ top choice is running back Alfred Morris at +1000

While all of those names make sense, the choice here is 49ers tight end George Kittle. He has burst onto the scene and has developed a nice rapport with Beathard. San Francisco will need to find the end zone first, but it’s possible coach Kyle Shanahan has some wrinkles up his sleeve early. Kittle would pay off at a lucrative +1200 if he scores the first touchdown of this affair, and those are solid odds. Take him to do so in NFL prop bets.

NFL ATS Pick: George Kittle to score the first touchdown of the game

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Monday's Top Wager
October 15, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL Betting – San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers will look to get over the .500 mark as they visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night on ESPN. The 49ers come into the game at 1-4 and struggling on both sides of the ball, while the Packers are 2-2-1 and surprisingly struggling on offense. The Packers are just 18th in the NFL on offense, averaging 23 points per contest. Let’s look at Monday’s game and NFL picks.

Date and Time: Monday, October 15, 2018, 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
NFL Odds at BetDSI: Packers -9, O/U 46
49ers vs. Packers TV Coverage: ESPN

The 49ers and Packers have not met in three seasons and each team comes into this game looking for an identity. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said that he thinks his team can kick start their season on Monday night. "Yeah, we're going through some stuff.” Shanahan said to the media, “But get a chance to go play Monday night in Green Bay, which is as cool of a place to play (as there is)."

The 49ers have been great through the years on Monday night and they have won their last nine Monday Night Football games. They hold the all-time record with 48 wins on Monday night. It will be tough to extend that streak considering they are without a number of key players including quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and top running back Jerick McKinnon. The 49ers were missing a number of other players in Thursday’s practice besides those two who are out for the season. On the sideline were three starting offensive linemen and three wide receivers in addition to tight end George Kittle and running back Matt Breida. “It definitely gets harder when you do have injuries and things like that.” Shanahan said, “But we have people in here who can win games."

The Packers are also a bit banged up. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is playing through a knee injury and he did not even practice on Thursday. He has been sacked 16 times this season, so protection is a concern and the Packers have yet to score 30 points in a game this season. "It's definitely below (expectations), and we've kind of been stuck at that number," Rodgers said to the media about scoring 23 points.

Green Bay has struggled on third down at less than 40% and they are 19th in the red zone. They also have 10 offensive holding penalties this season.

Matchup to Watch

Keep an eye on Rodgers going against the 49ers secondary and cornerback Richard Sherman. The two have faced each other six previous times while Sherman was in Seattle with each team winning three times. Rodgers has completed only nine passes for 90 yards against Sherman in six games. He went at Sherman only 13 times and threw one interception. In the last five meetings, Sherman has allowed just five catches for 46 yards. Sherman has only been targeted 10 times this season on 145 passing plays. That is the second lowest mark in the NFL.

Key Stats

The 49ers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay. The 49ers are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 Monday games. The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in October. The Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games in October.

Looking at the total, the Over is 4-0 in the 49ers last 4 games overall. The Over is 21-5 in the Packers last 26 vs. the NFC. The Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in this series.

49ers vs. Packers Picks

If you look simply at the stats the Packers should win this game, but there are a number of factors that points to the 49ers. First, the 49ers have been great through the years on Monday night. Second, Rodgers is not healthy and the Packers offense simply isn’t clicking. Third, the public is going to lay the points and take Green Bay. All of those factors have me taking the 49ers plus the points.

49ers vs. Packers Pick: 49ers +9 at BetDSI
49ers vs. Packers Score Prediction: Packers 23, 49ers 20

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Books survive Week 6
October 15, 2018
By Micah Roberts

Week 6 of the NFL Sunday had two root games that would determine the fate of the Nevada sports book and when the Broncos (+7) got the back-door cover at home against the Rams in a 23-20 loss, that appeared to be the biggest of them all. That late TD was worth at least a half million, right?

"No, we didn't win a half-million (on the Rams), but it was a good decision," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "It was our second-best game," he said, "but the best game was the Dolphins winning. The Bears ran from -3 to -6.5 -130 at our place, but I saw as high as -7.5 out there."

Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill hurt his shoulder last week at Cincinnati, where the Dolphins lost their second straight after starting 3-0, and not many people gave it a second thought that he wouldn't play. It wasn't built into the number and stayed Bears -3.5 for most of the week. But news started to slowly leak Saturday that the shoulder may make him a game-time situation and then the number really started to roll Sunday morning from -5 all the way up to -7.

Once known that Tannehill wouldn't play, every bettor on the planet knew back-up QB Brock Osweiler, the butt of many jokes, would be the starter and they apparently went all in with Bears play on straight bets and parlays counting it as an easy win. However, the Dolphins rallied multiple times to win 31-28 in overtime with Osweiler throwing 380 yards with 3 TDs.

"We were a moderate loser before the Dolphins posted as a win for us," Stoneback said. The Dolphins win was the last nine 10 am PT games posted. "The three afternoon games turned out well for us," he said.

Station Casinos 18 books across Las Vegas were in the same boat.

"The morning was not good with really the only the Dolphins and Jets being helpful," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "The afternoon Broncos cover and Cowboys wins were fantastic. The only thing left to complete a decent day is for the Chiefs to cover, which is a healthy decision for us."

The books would get the decision they wanted with Chiefs (+4) covering in a 43-40 loss at New England. The small favorite on the money line with the underdog covering usually works out well for the house, the bookmaker's dream.

"Our biggest liability on the Sunday night game was Over 59.5 total points," said Stoneback.

The two elite AFC squads combined for 30 points in the fourth quarter and the Chiefs tallied 446 yards and the Patriots had 500 yards. The Chiefs took their first loss on the season, but they're still the only perfect 6-0 team against the spread.

Perhaps the most shocking decision of the day was how easy the Cowboys manhandled the Jaguars defense as well as how dominant the Cowboys (+3.5) defense was home in the 40-7 win. The Jags had just 204 yards of total offense.

The best games for the public happened early with the Falcons (-3) covering at home in a 34-29 win against the Buccaneers and also the Steelers (+1) winning at Cincinnati, 28-21. The Chargers (PK) also had plenty of support at Cleveland in a 38-14 win.

Overall, favorites went 6-7 ATS on Sunday with four underdogs winning straight up while the 'over' went 7-6.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50

NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50


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Nfl Record For October......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/14/2018 15-9-1 62.50% +25.50
10/11/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/08/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/07/2018 14-10-0 58.33% +15.00
10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Total............34-22-1.........60.71%.....+49.00

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Best Bets For October

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/14/2018..............5 - 4.................+3.00....................4 - 6................-13.00..............-10.00
10/11/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00...............-0.50
10/08/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
10/07/2018..............4 - 5..................-7.50....................6 - 4................+8.00...............+0.50
10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

Totals...................10 - 11...................-5.50.................13 - 11...............+4.50...............-1.00

[StarDust Bum]

Receivers Cobb, Allison out again for Packers vs. 49ers
October 15, 2018
By The Associated Press

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) The Green Bay Packers will be without receivers Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison against the San Francisco 49ers because of hamstring injuries.

It's the second straight week that the Packers will be without Cobb and Allison. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers will have to rely again on rookies Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown behind top wideout Davante Adams.

Rookie cornerback Jaire Alexander will also miss the game with a groin injury. Starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga is active, though, after being limited the past two days of practice because of a knee injury.

Green Bay's other inactives are quarterback Tim Boyle, cornerback Bashaud Breeland, and offensive linemen Alex Light and Jason Spriggs.

For the 49ers, leading rusher Matt Breida is active after coming into the game as questionable with shoulder and ankle injuries. Breida is sixth in the league in rushing with 369 yards.

Receiver Pierre Garcon (shouder, knee) and tight end George Kittle (knee) are also active.

Receiver Trent Taylor is inactive. He didn't practice all week because of a back injury.

The other inactives for San Francisco are: receiver Dante Pettis; tight end Cole Wick; offensive linemen guard Joshua Garnett and Shon Coleman; and defensive linemen Jullian Taylor and D.J. Jones.


*******************************

MONDAY, OCTOBER 15
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SF at GB 08:15 PM

SF +9.0

U 46.0

[StarDust Bum]

Crosby hits FG as time expires, Packers beat 49ers 33-30
October 15, 2018

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Mason Crosby kicked a 27-yard field goal as time expired to cap an 81-yard drive set up by Kevin King's interception with 1:07 left, and the Green Bay Packers outlasted the San Francisco 49ers for a 33-30 win on Monday night.

The drive was extended after 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman was called for an illegal contact penalty on third-and-15 that wiped out a sack of Rodgers with 43 seconds left.

Rodgers rushed up the middle for a 21-yard gain on the next play. The two-time NFL MVP completed two more passes for 19 yards to set up Crosby's game-winner for Green Bay (3-2-1).

The veteran kicker was perfect a week after missing four field goals in a loss at Detroit.

Rodgers threw for 425 yards and two scores.

C.J. Beathard passed for 245 yards and two touchdowns for the 49ers (1-5).

Beathard connected with speedy receiver Marquise Goodwin for two long scores, and for a while it looked like the 49ers might hold on for their first victory since quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was lost for the year in Week 3 with a torn ACL.

Turnovers hurt them again - three more on Monday night, but none bigger than King's pick at the Packers 10.

The second-year cornerback was locked in 1-on-1 coverage with Goodwin, who had burned the secondary all night. This time, King kept up and pulled in a ball that looked slightly underthrown by Beathard.

Then Rodgers went to work, aided by the penalty on Sherman, who was covering Davante Adams.

Rodgers was 25 of 46. Adams had 10 catches for 132 yards, one of three Packers receivers to go over 100 yards.

The Packers scored 10 points in the final 2 minutes, capped by Crosby's fourth field goal of the night.

ANTHEM

Goodwin appeared to be the only player on either team with an apparent sign of protest during the national anthem, raising a right first in the air.

UP NEXT

49ers: Host the unbeaten Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Packers: After a bye week, Green Bay visits the Rams on Oct. 28.

[StarDust Bum]

WEEK 7

Thursday, October 18, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Denver Broncos Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, October 21, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
9:30 AM Tennessee Titans Los Angeles Chargers
1:00 PM New England Patriots Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Houston Texans Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings New York Jets
1:00 PM Carolina Panthers Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM Cleveland Browns Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4:05 PM New Orleans Saints Baltimore Ravens
4:25 PM Dallas Cowboys Washington Redskins
4:25 PM Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers
8:20 PM Cincinnati Bengals Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, October 22, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM New York Giants Atlanta Falcons


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NFL RECORD FOR SEPT......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Totals...............63-47-1.....57.27%.....+56.50

NFL BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

Totals....................23 - 15................+32.50..................22 - 16..............+22.00............+34.50


*****************************

Nfl Record For October......

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/15/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/14/2018 15-9-1 62.50% +25.50
10/11/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/08/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/07/2018 14-10-0 58.33% +15.00
10/04/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/01/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Total............35-23-1.........60.34%.....+48.50

********************

Best Bets For October

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

10/15/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................-5.50................-0.50
10/14/2018..............5 - 4.................+3.00....................4 - 6................-13.00..............-10.00
10/11/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00...............-0.50
10/08/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
10/07/2018..............4 - 5..................-7.50....................6 - 4................+8.00...............+0.50
10/04/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
10/01/2018..............1 - 0.................+5.00....................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00

Totals...................11 - 11...................-0.50.................14 - 11...............-1.00.................-1.50

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s six-pack

Some interesting college football games this weekend:

— Stanford (-2.5) @ Arizona State

— Michigan (-7) @ Michigan State

— Oregon @ Washington State (-1)

— Minnesota @ Nebraska (-3.5)

— Oklahoma (-7.5) @ TCU

— USC @ Utah (-6.5)

Quote of the Day
“My brother was a remarkable individual on every level. While most knew Paul Allen as a technologist and philanthropist, for us he was a much loved brother and uncle, and an exceptional friend. Paul’s family and friends were blessed to experience his wit, warmth, his generosity and deep concern. For all the demands on his schedule, there was always time for family and friends. At this time of loss and grief for us — and so many others — we are profoundly grateful for the care and concern he demonstrated every day.”
Jody Allen, sister of Seahawks/Blazers’ owner Paul Allen, who died on Monday

Tuesday’s quiz
Who was the coach of the San Francisco 49ers last time they made the playoffs?

Monday’s quiz
Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 when they won their only Super Bowl title.

Sunday’s quiz
Duke’s David Cutcliffe was Eli Manning’s college coach at Ole Miss.


***********************


Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) I mentioned a few weeks ago how USC QB JT Daniels skipped his senior year of HS so he could play QB for the Trojans this season, and how it seemed a little odd to rush a kid thru school like that, especially since so many college players red-shirt their first year in college, so they’re often 19-20 years old before ever playing in a game.

Well, it turns out that Daniels’ father had his son repeat 8th grade (this also happens a decent amount in Texas) so that he would be older and better suited to compete when his time came to play high school ball. JT Daniels will be 19 soon, so he isn’t that far behind the curve, age-wise, he just gave back the year he gained four years ago.

How long will Daniels’ father let his son stay in college before he tests the NFL’s waters?

12) Just under $184M was bet on sports in New Jersey in September, $88.6M of it on football. More than half of the $184M was wagered online.

New Jersey books showed a $24M profit last month, $9.4M of that coming from football.

11) This was the first time since 1990 there were no winless NFL teams after five weeks of the season.

10) Los Angeles Angels are looking for a new manager; from Jon Morosi:

“#Angels administering 2-hour written test to managerial candidates, sources say, with questions spanning analytical, interpersonal and game-management aspects of the job.”

So far, six major league teams are looking for a new manager for next year.

9) Red Sox pitcher Chris Sale has a stomach ailment, spent Sunday night in Mass General Hospital. The team was hoping Sale would accompany the ballclub to Houston on Monday.

8) Last golf season, Henrik Stenson became the first golfer to lead the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and greens in regulation in the same season since Calvin Peete, in 1983.

7) Knicks dumped Joakim Noah, but they still owe him $38M going forward; as far as the hit on the salary cap goes, they’ll stretch the cap hit out over three years.

6) There is a hotel in Boston, the Liberty Hotel, which is a converted jail. It used to be called the Charles Street Jail; wouldn’t it be at least a little weird staying there overnight?

5) There are only four players left in the NHL who played against Wayne Gretzky:
Zdeno Chara, Matt Cullen, Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton

4) Rick Barry’s son Canyon Barry, who played college ball at Charleston/Florida, will play for Minnesota’s G-League team, the Iowa Wolves this winter.

3) Ole Miss has only 28 plays in its offensive playbook; there are obviously options off of those plays, but their playbook is much thinner than most college teams.

2) TV guys are gushing about how Alex Bregman is the Astros’ best player, but from July 27-August 20, Houston went 8-13- they allowed 3 or less runs in all eight wins; they were 0-10 during that stretch when allowing 4+ runs.

That 21-game stretch was when Jose Altuve was out with an injured knee; make no mistake about it, Altuve is the Astros’ best player.

1) RIP to Paul Allen, 65, who passed away Monday. Mr Allen passed away shortly after it was announced that he had been diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma for the third time.

One of the co-founders of Microsoft, Allen bought the Portland Trailblazers in 1987, and the Seattle Seahawks in 1995. He was worth $20B at the time of his passing, and is said to have donated over $2B to charity.

RIP, sir.

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 7
Joe Williams

The Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs were flexed into the Sunday Night Football spot this week in place of the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The way the Niners played on Monday in Green Bay, perhaps that's bad idea. Now, the Niners will face another postseason hopeful on their own home turf as double-digit underdogs.

Four more teams are enjoying their bye week this week, and we'll get our first London game at 9:30 am ET, after a primetime battle in England this past weekend. The Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers will square off in Jolly Old England, and the Titans hope they can fare a little better than they did in the Music City last week when they put up a goose egg against the Baltimore Ravens.

Thursday, Oct. 18

Denver Broncos (-2.5, 41) at Arizona Cardinals

This game looked to be a little more attractive during the offseason, but after a few good Thursday matchups we get a dog. The Broncos have shown some signs of life on offense lately, and they opened as a 2 1/2-point favorite at most shops. The Mirage-MGM and Stratosphere opened the Broncos at just 1 1/2, but that quickly changed in a matter of minutes to fall in line with everyone else.


Sunday, Oct. 21

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 45.5)

Last week's London battle between the Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks featured two West Coast teams playing at 1:00 p.m. ET, or 10:00 a.m. PT. This week, the Chargers will be playing at 6:30 a.m. PT, which is sure to have some kind of effect, especially after thousands of miles of travel. Most shops have the Bolts holding steady at 6 1/2, although if you hurry you can catch them at Treasure Island at -6.

New England Patriots (-3.5, 49.5) at Chicago Bears

The Patriots beat back a challenge from the Kansas City Chiefs by a 43-40 score last Sunday night, the first time in NFL history a game was decided by that score, by the way. Now, the Pats are on to Chicago, facing a Bears team which really punched themselves in the goodies in Miami, falling to old friend Adam Gase.

The Strat opened this game at -4, and it was bet down to -3 1/2, while TI had this game at -3 and it was bet up to -3 1/2. That appears to be where all of the shops will settle for now. Bettors appears to be trusting of the Bears defense, or expect the Pats offense not to be as prolific, as the line has been driven down from 50 to 49 or 49 1/2 at most shops.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 49.5)

The Browns fell back to Earth at home against the Chargers, and now they face the tough task of playing in the heat and humidity of Central Florida against a Bucs team which has shown the potential to score in bunches. The Bucs opened at -3 at most shops and it has held steady with little action, although at Treasure Island the line moved slightly from an open of -2 1/2 to get in line with everyone else.

Detroit Lions (-1, OFF) at Miami Dolphins

The uncertainty of the Miami quarterback situation has the total OFF at the moment. It was Brock-toberfest last week against the Bears, as QB Brock Osweiler surprised with an overtime win at the helm in place of the injured QB Ryan Tannehill. To make matters worse for the Fins, they catch a rested Lions team which is 5-1 ATS in their past six coming off a bye.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 45.5)

The Panthers stumbled in their comeback attempt in D.C. last week, now they will have their hands full against the defending Super Bowl champs. Philly opened at -4 or -4 1/2 at most shops, although TI had it at -3 1/2 for a brief time on Monday. It appears the public is heavily backing the champs at home against the Panthers, who have struggled defensively at times.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 42.5)

The Bills have some uncertainty at the quarterback position, as QB Josh Allen banged up his elbow and is a question mark. Will newly-signed Derek Anderson start? Will the mistake-prone Nate Peterman get the nod? Or will the rookie Allen play through pain? Only CG Technology and Westgate Superbook are offering the line, and CG now has the Colts laying a touch. If you like the high-scoring Colts to lay the 6 1/2, go offshore.

Minnesota Vikings (-3, 47) at New York Jets

The Vikings are a hard team to figure. They appear to be a Super Bowl contender sometimes, and other times they're just good, but not great. The Jets lost to the Cleveland Browns a couple of Thursdays ago, but they have looked impressive in their past two weekends. It's too bad this isn't the QB Teddy Bridgewater game against his former team, as he was shipped to NOLA after an impressive preseason with Gang Green. That would've been fun.

Anyway, this game has bounced back and forth between 3 1/2 and 3, with Treasure Island opening it at -4. If you're feeling the Jets at home and like the hook, you can still get it at Jerry's Nugget. There has been very little movement or interest in the total, which has not changed across the board from an open of 47.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 42.5)

Both of these teams struggled in the Lone Star State last week. The Texans eeked out a 20-13 win thanks to a pick-six against the Bills, while the Jags were emasculated by the Dallas Cowboys. Bettors seem to like the Jags to bounce back, as the line rose from an open of -4 to -4 1/2 at Mirage-MGM, which is in line with all other Vegas shops. There is confidence the Jags' D will bounce back, too, after giving up a 40-burger in Big D, too, as the total is down from 42 1/2 to 42 at Atlantis as well as Jerry's Nugget.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 49.5)

The Ravens fell in Cleveland in Week 5, and blanked Tennessee in Week 6. They're hard to figure. There hasn't been much movement on this game, with the Ravens opening and holding steady as 2 1/2-point favorites at most shops. The Saints are coming off a rest, and they're 9-1 ATS in their past 10 following a bye week.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 41.5)

The Cowboys have owned this series in recent seasons, covering their past four trips to Washington, while going a perfect 5-0 SU in the nation's capital since their last loss there on Dec. 30, 2012. The public has taken notice, as the game opened at -2 1/2 at the Strat, dropping a point in less than 24 hours. The same happened at the Westgate Superbook, toin from 2 1/2 to 1 1/2.

Los Angeles Rams (-10.5, 53) at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are 2-0 ATS this season when they're an underdog by 7 or more points. The 'over' has also cashed in each of their past five. That will be put to the test against a Rams defense which has been very good. For whatever reason, the 49ers have played them well over the years, though, and they're 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS i nthe past five meetings with the 'under' going 4-1 in the past five played in the Bay Area.

The solid showing of the 49ers on Monday has made an impression on bettors, as the line has fallen slightly from -11 to -10 1/2 at most shops. William Hill even opened this one at -11 1/2, and it's down a full point.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 58.5)

This game was flexed into the Sunday night spot, as the Chiefs are the Flavor of the Month right now. Sorry Rams and 49ers fans. After an emotional three-point loss in New England, the public seems to be feeling the Bengals against the Chiefs, expecting some sort of a hangover. The Strat opened this game at -6, and money has come in on the Bengals to push it to -5 1/2. Caesars/Harrah's has toggled between -6 and -5 1/2, but to -6. If you're feeling the Bengals, who have shown an ability to score, you might want to wait it out.

The 'under' had been 3-0 in the past three SNF games until involving the Chiefs in Week 6. The total is on the move in this one, opening at 58 at Caesars, up to 59 at Coasts, and 58 1/2 offshore. It wouldn't be surprising to see the 60-mark broken on this one before the close on Sunday night.


Monday, Oct. 22

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 54.5)

The Giants hit the road on Monday night after playing at home last Thursday. If you've followed Chris David's 'Total Talk', the over/under might be of interest to you. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 after the Patriots went over on Sunday night. The 'Thursday Night Total' system says to thump the 'over' for the home team from Thursday in the previous week. The Giants were romped at home against the Eagles last Thursday, so they should be involved in a high-scoring game this Monday, and hey, they're rested.

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots should attract public bettors as short faves vs. Bears in NFL Week 7 odds
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady and New England outlasted Kansas City on Sunday night, but didn't cover. The Patriots opened as 3-point favorites at Chicago in Week 7, the same number as last week's lookahead line.

Week 7 on the NFL schedule doesn’t have a game that just leaps off the page, but there are some intriguing matchups nonetheless. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four such contests, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (+3)

New England put up tons of points in each of the last three games, and in Week 6 needed pretty much all of them. The Patriots (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) blew a 24-9 halftime lead in a Sunday night shootout with Kansas City, but escaped with a 43-40 victory as 3.5-point home favorites

Chicago had plenty of time to rest up for Week 6, with a Week 5 bye, and got to face a backup quarterback. All that wasn’t enough, though, as the Bears (3-2 SU and ATS) lost to Brock Osweiler and Miami 31-28 in overtime as 7.5-point road faves.

“We saw a lot of money show up on the Bears +3 when we put up the lookahead line for this game last Tuesday,” Murray said early Sunday evening, prior to the Chiefs-Patriots contest. “This will be the Patriots’ first road game in a month, and the Bears crowd should be wild. But the public perception of the Bears may change a lot after that terrible loss to Osweiler and the Dolphins. The public will be all over the Patriots in this game if they have an impressive showing against the Chiefs.”

The offense was certainly impressive, but the New England defense got torched.

Per Superbook policy, the Pats-Bears line was taken down during the Sunday night game and will be rehung Monday morning.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Philadelphia is the defending Super Bowl champion, but sits at just 3-3 SU and ATS through six weeks. The Eagles hope they’re back on track after rolling over the New York Giants 34-13 as 1.5-point road chalk in the Thursday night game.

Carolina barely escaped against the visiting Giants in Week 5, winning on a 63-yard field goal as time expired, but didn’t have such luck in Week 6 at Washington. The Panthers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) fell behind 17-0 in the first half and had their rally fall short in a 23-17 setback as 1-point faves.

“Philadelphia has three extra days to prepare for this game, and Carolina struggled for a second week in a row in its loss to the Redskins,” Murray said. “The Panthers would be on a two-game losing streak without the heroics of Graham Gano.”

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-2.5)

With Philadelphia out of the gate slow, Washington is actually atop the NFC East at 3-2 SU and ATS. The Redskins went off as 1-point home ‘dogs against Carolina in Week 6 and held on for a 23-17 victory after blowing much of a 17-0 lead.

Dallas has been tough to peg this season, but put together its best scoring output of the season in Week 6, and against a good defense, no less. The Cowboys (3-3 SU and ATS), catching 3 points at home, darted out to a 24-0 halftime lead and coasted past Jacksonville, 40-7.

“Great win for Dallas at home over Jacksonville,” Murray said, before turning his attention to next weekend. “This feels like the kind of home game the Redskins always lose. I expect the public to back the Cowboys pretty heavily on the road here.”

In fact, the early move in this division clash was toward Dallas, with the line dipping to 2 at the Superbook.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Kansas City was the talk of the league through five weeks, and rightly so, winning on the field and cashing for bettors every week. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS) continued to cash in Week 6 with a big rally at New England, but fell short on the scoreboard, losing 43-40 as a 3.5-point pup.

Cincinnati blew a great opportunity to prove it was the best team in the NFC North. The Bengals (4-2 SU and ATS) went off as 1.5-point home favorites against Pittsburgh and took a 21-20 lead with 1:18 remaining in the game, then gave up a waning-seconds touchdown in a 28-21 loss.

“Marvin Lewis always finds a way to blow a few games every season,” Murray said. “Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh was particularly brutal. A win there would’ve made the Bengals 5-1 and put them in great position in the AFC North. This line may change depending on the result of the Sunday night game.”

The Superbook took down the Cincy-KC line during the Chiefs-Patriots game and will repost the number Monday morning.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 6
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 6 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 6-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-6
Against the Spread 7-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 58-32-2
Against the Spread 41-49-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 57-33-2
Against the Spread 50-40-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 50-42

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Dolphins (+7, ML +270) vs. Bears, 31-28 (OT)
Cowboys (+3, ML +150) vs. Jaguars, 40-7

The largest favorite to cover
Vikings (-9.5) vs. Cardinals, 27-17
Falcons (-3) vs. Buccaneers, 34-29
Seahawks (-3) vs. Raiders in London, 27-3

Same Old Song and Dance

-- The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots did battle on Sunday Night Football in Foxboro, and it might not be the last time we see these combatants face one another this season. The Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes are the new kids on the block, the challengers. The Patriots and QB Tom Brady are the prideful veterans not ready give up their throne quite yet. If this were an MMA battle, this would have been a split decision after going the distance. The Pats won, the Chiefs covered...and it was the first game in NFL history to end with a 43-40 score. The sequel, if there is one, might be even more fun.

Paying the Bills

-- The Buffalo Bills do not seem to care being double-digit underdogs. They headed to the Gulf Coast to battle the Houston Texans, and they were tied 13-13 late despite losing their starting QB Josh Allen (elbow) to an injury. A late pick-six gave the home team the win, but the Bills were able to cover as double-digit underdogs. As a single-digit underdog the Bills are 1-3 ATS. As a 'dog by 10 or more points the Bills are 2-0 ATS. Buffalo has been a favorite of total bettors, too, as the 'under' has connected in four straight.

Total Recall

-- There were three games generally in the same neighborhood on the big board. The Jacksonville-Dallas (39.5) battle was the lowest total on the board, and the home team ended up taking care of the 'over' themselves in the 40-7 win. Further south in the Lone Star State, the Buffalo-Houston (40) battle had just 33 points on the board when the dust cleared, and a late defensive score made the difference. The Chicago-Miami (40.5) game was also expected to be a defensive battle, especially once it was determined QB Brock Osweiler would start in placed of the injured QB Ryan Tannehill (shoulder), but it was quite an entertaining battle with 59 total points to easily cash the over.

-- The two highest totals on the board, Tampa Bay-Atlanta (57.5) and Kansas City-New England (59.5) weren't high enough. The Bucs and Falcons combined for 23 points in the fourth quarter to push the total over, while the Chiefs and Patriots hooked up for a total of 83 points. The other two games with totals of 50 or greater, Pittsburgh-Cincinnati (50) and L.A. Rams-Denver (50) ended up cashing 'under'.

-- The 'over' cashed for the L.A. Chargers in their road rout of the Cleveland Browns, and they're the only team in the AFC who hasn't had the 'under' come in at least twice (5-1). In the NFC, the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Atlanta Falcons have cashed in five of their six outings. The 'over' is also 4-1 for the San Francisco 49ers heading into their Monday night battle with the Green Bay Packers, who have also hit the over in four of their five outings.

-- The 'over' finished 2-0 in the first two primetime games with the Monday night contest pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 9-9 (50.0%). The 'under' had cashed in three consecutive Sunday night battles before the track meet between the Chiefs and Patriots.

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bills QB Josh Allen (elbow) left Sunday's game in Houston with an elbow injury, forcing QB Nate Peterman into action. He ended up tossing a pick-six in the final two minutes, costing the team in a 20-13 loss.

-- Falcons WRs Calvin Ridley (ankle) and Muhammad Sanu (hip) were each forced out of the Week 6 battle against the Buccaneers.

-- Jets WR Quincy Enunwa (ankle) turned an ankle in the shootout against the Colts and he was unable to return.

-- Raiders WRs Amari Cooper and Seth Roberts were each forced out of the battle with the Seahawks in London due to concussions.

Looking Ahead

-- The suddenly hot Texans, winners of three in a row, battle the Jaguars in Northeast Florida. The Jags head home from Dallas with their tails between their legs after a sound 40-7 beating. It might get worse, as they're just 2-6 ATS in their past eight home meetings against the Texans. The 'over' has cashed in three of the past four meetings overall, and three straight in Jacksonville.

-- The Titans and Chargers will lock horns in London. The 'under' cashed in the Week 6 battle between the Seahawks and Raiders, and the total has gone under in 50% (11-11) the first 22 contests played in the United Kingdom.

-- The 49ers return from home from Wisconsin to find the Rams waiting for them. That isn't a bad thing for San Francisco, as the Niners have covered five straight in this series, last failing to cover Nov. 1, 2015 on the road. They're 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the 'under' is 4-1 during the past five meetings in the Bay Area, too.

-- The Cowboys will travel to D.C. looking to take care of their rivals, the Redskins. Lately, they have been a nightmare for Washington. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings at home against the Cowboys, and they haven't beaten the Cowboys in five tries at FedEx Field since Dec. 30, 2012. The over has also cashed in three of the past four meetings in D.C., and five straight in this series.