Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 Best Bets - Totals
September 14, 2018
By Bookmaker

Best Bets - Sides

Week 2 NFL Best Bets – Totals

Last week's total plays split the board, but if you were smart enough to wait on the 'over' in the Pittsburgh/Cleveland game and bet it near close, you cashed a winner there. For that game not to go over 43.5 when it was tied 21-21 in the 4th was a little unlucky, but those negative feelings were quickly forgotten about with how easily the Bills/Ravens game cashed 'over' the number.

It's on to Week 2 though and with more than a handful of divisional matchups on the board, there's at least one of them that has caught my eye from a totals perspective. Let's get right to the plays:

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet #1: Houston/Tennessee Over 44.5

I have been kind of surprised to see this total get the bulk of the action on the 'under' all week as it appears there aren't too many bettors out there impressed with either offensive unit after one week. Houston's attack left a bad taste in many mouths a week ago as a popular underdog pick to cover against New England so that may have some lingering effects, but the majority going the other way is never viewed as a bad thing in my mind.

Neither offense may have looked great in Week 1 defeats, but each still managed to score 20 points on the road and did make the most of their limited chances. That's a plus for these offenses going forward and with this being the 2nd ever showdown between Deshaun Watson and Marcus Mariota in AFC South play – in a battle that could be here for years – I think we see a similar scoreline to that first meeting (minus the blowout)

That first meeting between Watson and Mariota came early on a year ago when Watson and the Texans put one on the Titans. The final score was 57-14 in favor of Houston as they really could do no wrong for the entire 60 minutes. The two teams combined for 44 points at halftime, and coming anywhere near that number again through 30 minutes of play will make this another easy winner for us this year.

Chances are that probably won't happen, but even a 14-7 game at the break is just slightly behind pace with this lower number, and then they head into a 2nd half where both guys will be more inclined to look for the big play. That's not all bad for an 'over' play with the playmaking ability each QB has, and given that the Titans are known for playing higher scoring games early in the year (8-3 O/U last 11 in September), and 5-1 O/U after an ATS loss, things should open up quite a bit this week.

Houston and Watson will aim to ramp up their play now that he's got all those nervous feelings about whether or not his knee will hold up during live action out of the way too. When that happens, this Texans offense will more resemble the one that lit up the league for 5-6 weeks last year with Watson at the helm. I'm still not a believer that Watson nor the Texans offense can come close to duplicating that run any time soon, but they really only need to score 24-28 points this week in all likelihood to push this game 'over' the number.

That's a range the Texans should find a way to get to, and Tennessee won't be far behind.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet #2: Philadelphia/Tampa Bay Under 44

Here we've got a game that's eerily similar to the one above (small road favorite with total of 44/44.5) yet given the matchup and situation, this total of 44 seems a little too high.

Betting percentages at VegasInsider.com show 85%+ already on the high side of this total and yet there has really been no movement at all. This number opened at 44, dropped to 43.5, and has since come back up to 44 again. That suggests to me that it's got to either be 'under' or pass on this total with the oddsmakers potentially taking a stance on this number, and when you really dig deeper into the game, firing on the 'under' looks very attractive.

For one, chances are we see a big regression come from Tampa QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the entire Bucs offense for that matter. It's the defending champs rolling into town, not a notoriously suspect Saints defense, and Philly isn't about to let a backup QB light them up like that. Without question the Saints took Fitzpatrick's starting job and the Bucs offense lightly a week ago and it cost them. Philly won't be making that mistake – especially after watching how last week's game turned out for Tampa – and that's bad news for fans who love to see points.

Philly is also a team starting a backup QB in Nick Foles, and while he is the reigning SB MVP and all that, the Eagles aren't about to let him have Carte blanche out there. This is still a team that's working out things offensively as they deal with multiple issues across the board and needs to rely on it's defense to win games early. They showed up against Atlanta in the season opener, and they'll do so again against this Bucs team.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 - Sunday Blitz
September 14, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Vikings at Packers – 1:00 PM EST

An important NFC North game in Week 2 takes place at Lambeau Field with one extremely important question. Will Packers’ star quarterback Aaron Rodgers suit up or sit out after suffering a knee injury last week against Chicago? Green Bay seemed dead in the water after trailing, 20-0 and Rodgers carted off, but he returned in the second half to lead a monumental rally in a 24-23 victory.

Rodgers hopes to play to give the Packers an opportunity at not only a 2-0 overall record, but 2-0 mark inside the division. The last time Rodgers faced the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium last season, Minnesota linebacker Anthony Barr drilled the two-time league MVP into the ground and broke Rodgers’ collarbone. The end result of that hit was Rodgers being sidelined for nine games and the Vikings capturing the NFC North title.

Minnesota heads to Lambeau Field following a 24-16 victory over San Francisco in the season opener. The Vikings grabbed the cover as six-point favorites, while causing four 49ers’ turnovers, including a pick-six on San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kirk Cousins put together a solid debut for Minnesota by throwing for 244 yards and two touchdowns as the Vikings improved to 10-1 in their last 11 home contests.

The Vikings compiled a 6-2 record on the highway last season, which included a 16-0 shutout of the Packers at Lambeau Field in December. Minnesota has won and covered four of the past five matchups in the series, including two of the past three trips to Green Bay. The UNDER has been a strong look in this series as well by hitting in seven of the last eight meetings.

Best Bet: Vikings 27, Packers 21

Eagles (-3, 44) at Buccaneers – 1:00 PM EST

It wasn’t pretty, but following a weather delay, the defending champion Eagles raised their Super Bowl banner and knocked off the Falcons last Thursday, 18-12. With Carson Wentz still sidelined, Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles overcame a subpar performance (19-of-34 for 117 yards and interception) to lift Philadelphia to its second low-scoring home win over Atlanta in 2018 after eliminating the Falcons in the second round last season.

The Eagles moved to 12-1 in their last 13 home contests, but travel to Florida this week to face a Buccaneers’ squad that shocked the Saints as 10 ½-point underdogs last week, 48-40. Ryan Fitzpatrick torched the New Orleans’ defense for 417 yards and four touchdown passes, while both Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson recorded at least 145 yards receiving and a total of three touchdown catches. Tampa Bay picked up its third consecutive opening day win, unfortunately the Bucs haven’t started 2-0 since 2010.

The Eagles have slumped to a 2-4 ATS record under Doug Pederson as a road favorite, but Philadelphia won six of eight games away from Lincoln Financial Field last season. The Bucs have covered in four of their past five opportunities as a home underdog since 2016, while the Eagles are traveling to Tampa Bay for the first time since 2013. In the last meeting in 2015 at the Linc, the Bucs steamrolled the Eagles, 45-17 as seven-point underdogs, led by Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes.

Best Bet: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 17

Patriots (-1, 45) at Jaguars – 4:25 PM EST

Jacksonville nearly pulled off the upset of New England in the AFC Championship this past January, but fell apart in the second half of a 24-20 defeat. The Jaguars managed to cover as 7 ½-point underdogs, but missed out on the first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history, while Tom Brady hit Danny Amendola for a pair of touchdown tosses in the fourth quarter.

Fast forward eight months later and the two squads hook up again, this time at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. Both teams captured opening week wins, while the Jaguars won in Week 1 for the second straight year following a dry spell in openers from 2012 through 2016. The Jaguars held off the Giants last week, 20-15 as New York’s lone touchdown came on rookie Saquon Barkley’s 68-yard touchdown in the fourth. Jacksonville picked up the cover as three-point favorites, although running back Leonard Fournette left with a hamstring injury as the former LSU star is a game-time decision on Sunday.

The Patriots held off the Texans, 27-20 to barely cash as 6 ½-point favorites, although New England jumped out to a 21-6 halftime lead. Brady threw three touchdown passes in the first half to three different receivers, including an early hookup with tight end Rob Gronkowski, who finished with 123 yards receiving.

New England enters Sunday’s action riding a five-game winning streak in Week 2 action, while winning three of those games on the road by an average of 15.6 points per game. Jacksonville covered in five of seven opportunities as an underdog last season, while winning six of eight home contests. Brady has never lost to Jacksonville in his career in eight starts since 2003, including two victories at TIAA Bank Field.

Best Bet: Patriots 31, Jaguars 17

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (1-3-1 last week)
Steelers -4
Falcons -6
Bills +7
Dolphins +2 ½
Cardinals +12 ½

Chris David (4-1 last week)
Steelers -4
Falcons -6
Texans PK
Jaguars +1
Seahawks +3 ½

SURVIVOR PICKS

Kevin Rogers (Green Bay last week):
New Orleans over Cleveland

Chris David (Baltimore last week)
L.A. Rams over Arizona

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 1-0 this season)

UNDER 53 – Chiefs at Steelers

Easily drilled the UNDER last week between the Redskins and Cardinals and going that same route again this week. These two AFC rivals have played every season for the last four years and even twice in 2016. Five of those six matchups have finished UNDER the total, while the Chiefs have failed to bust 16 in the last three meetings. Yes, Patrick Mahomes was not under center for Kansas City in those games as the former Texas Tech standout threw four touchdown passes in last week’s 38-28 victory over the Chargers. However, Los Angeles was limited to 12 points in the first three quarters, while Pittsburgh held a 21-7 fourth quarter lead at Cleveland before the Browns scored two late touchdowns to ultimately tie the Steelers.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

Are the Bills really as bad as they looked last week in a 47-3 blowout loss to the Ravens? Buffalo returns home to host Los Angeles as the Chargers had high expectations placed on them heading into the season. The Lightning Bolts are 0-1 out of the gate after losing at Kansas City, but did rout the Bills last season by 30 points at home. Los Angeles opened as a 7 ½-point favorite at Buffalo this week, as rookie Josh Allen gets the start at quarterback for the Bills. Don’t be too fast to jump on the Chargers, as the Bolts have lost six of their last seven road September games.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The 49ers opened as three-point home favorites against the Lions after San Francisco lost at Minnesota in Week 1. However, that line skyrocketed to San Francisco laying six points following Detroit’s abysmal effort in last Monday’s blowout loss to the Jets. The Lions host the Patriots next Sunday night, as Detroit heads to the Bay Area off a 5-3 road record last season.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Three teams are playing on the road for the second straight week to open the season (Texans, Chiefs, and Seahawks). Kansas City was the lone team to win while Houston and Seattle came up. Why is this important? Teams don’t normally start 2-0 when both games are on the highway as only three squads have conquered this gauntlet since 2008 (2009 Vikings, 2010 Dolphins, and 2013 Dolphins). Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 twice with both games on the road, as Seattle tries to buck that trend on Monday at Chicago.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 2
September 14, 2018
By Micah Roberts

Do you believe what you saw last or do you trust the initial rating prior to Week 1 NFL action? We learned a lot from just one game, but is it possible we have been swayed too far from reality from just one game?

Week 2 of the NFL is upon us and there are some fascinating mass opinions making wagers at Las Vegas sports books this week.

Here's a look at what is happening.

Colts at Redskins -6, 48.5

"Sharp money has come in on the Colts off the loss while going against the Redskins who come off a game where they may have looked better than they really are," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. He's basically saying bettors are expecting both teams who wavered from their true rating week return to regular form this week. CG books were bumped from Colts +6 to +5.5 on Thursday.

Panthers at Falcons -6.5, 44.5

On Sunday night the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook opened the Falcons -3.5 and within 30 minutes they were bet all the way up to -5. At that point, the trek passing the dead numbers wouldn't take much cash to budge the number higher. By Tuesday they were up to -6 and on Friday morning they went to -6.5. The Panthers will be playing with tight end Greg Olsen (foot) and offensive tackley Daryl Williams (knee). This is another one of those games as CG's Simbal mentioned where one team is off a win and another comes off a tough loss.

Vikings at Packers (OFF)

Will Aaron Rodgers play? That's the question and because he's worth so much no Nevada sports book had anumber on Friday afternoon because of it being such a variance with an in or out number. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Rodgers is worth 6.5-points to the number with Deshone Kizer as the back-up who he says is much better than Brett Hundley who the Packers had as a back-up the past two years. William Hill sports books opened the Packers -1.5 and shut betting down Tuesday with the Vikings -2. In two days of wagering, they took 97 percent of the cash on the Vikings as well as 91 percent of the total tickets written.

Chargers -7.5 EV, 43 at Bills

Bettors don't seem to care that a West Coast team is playing a 10:00 a.m. game on the East Coast. All they know is they hate the Bills, and this week the Bills start rookie quarterback Josh Allen. Last week, Nate Peterman posted a 0.0 QB rating for the Bills. So maybe this an upgrade? Who knows, but his play should be better at home in his debut than on the road. The Westgate got as high as Chargers -8 on Sunday night, but someone grabbed that number quick and the Westgate hasn't had to go back despite almost every parlay on the game being on the Chargers. Stratosphere sports book director Ed Malinowski says this is his most bet public game.

Texans -2.5 -120, 43.5 at Titans

Both QBs, Marcus Mariota (elbow) and Deshaun Watson (concussion) are expected to play, so what gives on this game? By saying Texas are -2.5 on the road it's saying the Texans are rated at least 5-points better than the Titans. Is that true? Heck no it's not. But perception is reality after one week of play, mixed in with maybe a hint of overrating Watson's worth. The Westgate opened -1.5 and went to -2.5 -120 on Thursday. This is a major public game with 94 percent of William Hill's ticket written coming on the Texans. Last season the Titans, who made the playoffs and won a playoff game, were -2.5 at Houston and -7 at home against them. The Texans are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings versus the Titans, 1-0 behind Watson.

Chiefs at Steelers -5, 53.5

"The way the Chiefs looked last week, I have a feeling they're going to be a popular public team every week this season," said Simbal. "They score lots of points quick and they go Over the total, that's the makeup of a popular public team. It's also part of the reason we've raised them in ratings after Week 1." And there's the genesis of the KC popularity tax. CG books were pushed down to -4.5 on Wednesday.

Dolphins at Jets -2.5 -120, 43.5

"We have some sharp money playing the Dolphins this week while the public has been on the Jets," said Simbal. "I think this is a game where we really find out who each of these teams are moving forward. Both played well last week, but the Lions defense might have made the Jets offense look better than it really is." The Jets are Stratosphere's third most public side this week, but they also have wise guy money on the Dolphins.

Eagles -3.5 EV, 44 at Buccaneers

The public thinks what QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers did last week at New Orleans was an anomaly and their first home game will see a let down against the Eagles. William Hill sports books have seen 89 percent of the cash come on Philly as well as 86 percent of the tickets written. The Westgate opened the Eagles -3.

Browns at Saints -9.5, 49

"We're not seeing a lot of action on this one," said Simbal. "I think people are skeptical of the Saints this week after losing laying a big number with them last week while at the same time wanting to respect the Browns. I really do believe the public wants to root for and bet on the Browns, but they're torn this week."

Cardinals at Rams -13, 44.5

"We raised the Rams rating after Week 1 while also dropping the Cardinals," said Simbal. "We don't really have any action the Rams right now, just some small parlay action." He said they've just been kind of slowly moving the Rams up this week. What will it take to force people into taking the Cardinals this week, who looked like the worst team in the league in a home loss against the Redskins. Before the Rams Monday night win they were -10.5 at CG books for this game and readjusted to -12.5 on Wednesday and -13 on Thursday. The Rams are the second most popular public side at the Stratosphere. The Cards have 24 new players this season and were booed loudly at home last week.

Lions at 49ers -6, 49

The Westgate had the 49ers set at -3.5 prior to the Lions awful Monday night home loss to the Jets. Bettors actually took some +3.5-flat forcing a move to +3.5 -120. But then Jets 48-17 win happened. They readjusted to -4.5 on Tuesday morning and then quickly flew up the ladder to -5.5. By Wednesday morning they were up to -6. The 49ers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.

Patriots -1, 45.5 at Jaguars

The big deal here is Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette (hamstring) being questionable, but I don't find back-up T.J. Yeldon being. Fournette did run during Friday's practice and the team said he's a game-time decision. This game started at the Westgate as pick 'em and was bet up to Patriots -2 and it's slowly dropped down to -1. The Jaguars get defensive end Dante Fowler Jr (suspension) back this week, the guys who had two sacks on Tom Brady in last years AFC Championship Game. The Patriots won that game 24-20 as seven-point home favorites. Pats wider receiver Julian Edelman has three more games to serve on his suspension.

Raiders at Broncos -6.5, 46

"The Raiders are just a bad team," said Simbal. "Losing Kahlil Mack dropped their rating a bit and then I downgraded them again after last week where I think the strong first-half performance was more about the crowd pumping them up and the Rams being kind of sleepy." Ed Malinowski said his Stratosphere books took sharp money on the Raiders but he's flowed up to -6.5 anyway. Several books at -6. The favorite has gone 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Giants at Cowboys -3, 42.5

The Westgate got as high as Cowboys -3.5, but circled back to their opening number of -3. William Hill books have 81 percent of the tickets written on the Giants. This going to be the game that decides most sports books eventual fate on Sunday and it looks like they're going to need the Cowboys.

Seahawks at Bears -3.5 EV, 43

What was more truth identity? The Bears first half against the Packers, the Bears second-half against the Packers or the demise of the Seahawks witnessed in Denver. A little bit of all three equally? This game opened at -3 and after the Sunday night game went to -3 -120.

All spreads listed are from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook as of Friday afternoon, unless otherwise noted.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 Teasers
September 14, 2018
By BetOnline.ag

NFL Week 2 Exotic Betting Options

Playing it safe with a teaser option on the Patriots and Browns last week still paid out, but parlaying their spreads as they were would have worked as well. Can't complain too much as a win is a win, and it's on to Week 2 action.

This week there are quite a few home favorites that could be good options on teasers to simply win the game, and coming into the weekend, playing it safer with some plays by teasing them looks like a solid way to go. Also, I'm sure a bunch of the games with spreads in the -3 to -6.5 range will end up where both teams teased will come through. Yet, it's two teams that got completely embarrassed in Week 1 that I can't pass teasing up.

These two squads have to find a way to at least put a better effort for 60 minutes out there in Week 2, and with one of them at home and the other in hostile, but familiar territory, I've got to believe we see much better results from these two teams. Let's get right to it:

BetOnline.ag: Week 2 Two-Team, 7-point Teaser Best Bet

Buffalo Bills (+14.5) – Oakland Raiders (+13.5)

Right off the bat I would have preferred Oakland to be at least at +14 (and I'm hoping it may be possible before kickoff), but even at +13.5 I'm fine with the selection. I caught this piece at VegasInsider.com yesterday and am inclined to agree with the idea that Oakland probably isn't 3.5 points worse than Seattle to begin with. Those have been Denver's first two opponents and other than a disastrous performance on national television by Oakland, nothing has really changed.

Seattle and Oakland came into the year with similar season win totals (7.5/8) and now because of one stinker that everyone saw, the Raiders are much bigger dogs than a similar team in the same spot? It's not like Denver did anything special in beating Seattle, they did exactly what they were expected to do; win by 3 points at home. It was a good win and all, but the Broncos appear to be artificially inflated this week in large part by everyone just wanting no part of Oakland.

But as a double-digit underdog I'll gladly take the Raiders here in a spot where they know they need to bounce back. Carr and the Oakland attack was downright awful in that 2nd half vs the Rams and a performance like that really has nowhere to go but up. It's a divisional game now rather than non-conference tilt, so the extra intensity and motivation will already be there as this is probably a one-score game either way.

Buffalo is another underdog I like teased up to beyond two TD's for a variety of reasons. Yes, Buffalo looked awful and will probably be one of the worst teams in the league this year. But their play has nowhere to go but up too, and now they catch a Chargers team in a brutal spot.

The Chargers have their issues in their own right after Week 1, and while they are a team many were high on to start the year (myself included), they showed me nothing last week to deserve to be laying more than a TD here. It's an early body clock game for them after cross-country travel, against a team everyone in the world has been talking crap about all week, and sandwiched between a division game to start the year and an inter-city turf matchup with the Rams. That's a tough spot to go out on the road and win by more than two TD's.

And while Buffalo QB Josh Allen didn't look good in the action he saw a week ago, it's a good thing for this week that he saw action. Those rookie NFL jitters are gone and the team has stopped stringing him along and made a firm stance on deciding to go with him now. There will be mistakes no doubt, but Allen knows he was brought to Buffalo to make plays and win games and he's only got one shot to make a first impression in front of the home crowd. Allen should seize the moment as best as he can, and hopefully the rest of his teammates can rally around him as well. Remember they all know how embarrassing it was to leave L.A last year after losing big to the Chargers too.

It probably won't work out for the Bills in the end in terms of a SU win, but it's a good enough spot to tease them.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - N.Y. Giants at Dallas
September 14, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Week 1 SNF Betting Preview

N.Y. Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Last week's SNF season opener had a little bit of everything and could end up being the regular season game of the year. Green Bay fell down big early as they lost Aaron Rodgers to injury, only to storm back in the 2nd half and eek out the Bears 24-23. The 47 points was enough to 'push' my play on the 'under' in that game, so you can count me in the smaller group of bettors that wasn't exactly thrilled with Rodgers' heroics.

NFL fans get another divisional rivalry game for SNF in Week 2, as the Giants and Cowboys renew acquaintances. Both teams may be going in opposite directions if you ask many, with the Giants filled with renewed optimism and hope with a healthy roster and #2 overall pick RB Saquon Barkley in their colors, while Dallas looks a far cry away from the team that ran away with the NFC East two years ago. That's the way the money is already talking this week with the Giants getting the bulk of the support as a road dog, but is that the right side?

YouWager.eu Odds: Dallas (-3); Total set at 42.5

It's not hard to see why the Giants are getting plenty of love again this week, as they are the ones with more 'headline' players in this game and also have the hype train rolling right up their butts. It didn't work out for bettors backing New York a week ago as a home dog, but after watching how atrocious Dallas looked later on last Sunday, the majority of bettors aren't turning down the points with the Giants again. VegasInsider.com currently shows that the Giants are a 60/40 pick ATS, with many more simply bypassing the points and taking New York on the ML.

That support was to be expected given all the hype surrounding the Giants attack this year and the evidence we've seen from Dallas so far (preseason and Week 1) that their offense is really void of substantial weapons outside of Ezekiel Elliott. And while it's tough to deny that Dallas really does lack receiving threats, this is also an offensive unit that was so disjointed in preseason from the simple perspective of playing time (they hardly played together or at all). I'm willing to still give this team a week or two to figure out their passing attack – because they kept who they kept at WR/TE for reasons – and give them the benefit of the doubt.

I say that because, if the prevailing belief among bettors is that Dallas can't do anything in the passing game, it's already a belief in NFL circles, and the Cowboys better be prepared to see a loaded box from their opponent on every offensive snap to slow down Elliott. Doing that is just daring the Cowboys to make plays through the air and eventually some of those will connect.

So with the Giants already spending the bulk of this week in the dreaded 'public underdog' role and the Cowboys stock valued much lower then it probably should be in the eyes of many, I'm not so sure this typical home field advantage line of -3 doesn't have quite a bit of inherent value laced within it.

Dallas swept this season series a year ago and while that doesn't mean really anything here, confidence wise, the Cowboys have to come in with a bit of a boost. They are the ones who are at home here and can look to dictate the tempo with Elliott and the rushing game to wear out that Giants defense and keep Manning, Beckham Jr, and Barkley off the field.

We also can't forget about Dak Prescott's legs in this equation either, especially when the Giants let Blake Bortles rumble for 42 yards on four carries a week ago. Jacksonville didn't rely on the run as heavily as they would have liked with Leonard Fournette going down in that Giants game, but they Jags still rushed for 137 yards in the game, so it's not like the Giants defense is great at stopping the run either.

On the flip side, the Cowboys defense wasn't all that bad in slowing down the Panthers a week ago, they just need to get the help from their offense to win games. The Cowboys will be ready for Beckham and company in the passing game, but they've likely spent time on figuring out how to stop Barkley since the day he was drafted by New York. Carolina only had 293 total offensive yards in that game with the Cowboys, so slowing down the run is nothing new for Dallas, and wouldn't they be just the perfect foil to slightly derail this hype train the Giants have been riding the past few months?

That's why I'm rolling with the Cowboys here as I think there is just too much unwarranted hype surrounding this 2018 Giants squad at the moment. The NFL is famous for that “any given Sunday” tag line and no team is ever as good or as bad as they look in a specific week in this league. Dallas lost plenty of support in the betting market for how they looked a week ago and as I said earlier, I'm not ready to discredit this team completely just yet.

A bad blowout loss at home this week and things will be a different story regarding the Cowboys the rest of the way, but I don't believe it will come to that as Dallas shows up with their A-game across the board and pulls out the victory here.

Odds per - YouWager.eu

Best Bet: Dallas -3

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Seahawks at Bears
September 14, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Seahawks (0-1 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) entered the season opener by losing six consecutive road games in September as Seattle visited Denver. In spite of a grabbing a fourth quarter lead on a Russell Wilson 51-yard touchdown connection with Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks fell short in a 27-24 defeat to the Broncos. Seattle’s defense intercepted Case Keenum three times, but the Broncos outgained the Seahawks from a yardage standpoint, 470-306, while racking up 25 first downs compared to 13 by Seattle.

Seattle also committed three turnovers in the loss as Wilson was picked off twice, while running back Chris Carson lost a fumble in the third quarter. The second Wilson interception came on the final drive deep in Seattle territory, but the Seahawks’ quarterback also threw three touchdown passes, including one to former Broncos’ standout Brandon Marshall. The game sailed OVER the total of 42 ½, while Seattle pushed as a three-point underdog as the Seahawks last won a game in Week 16 of last season following an 0-4 preseason.

The Bears (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) were on their way to an impressive road upset of the Packers last Sunday night by jumping out to a seemingly commanding 20-0 lead at Lambeau Field. It helped Chicago’s cause that Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers exited the game in the second quarter with a knee injury as newly acquired linebacker Khalil Mack returned an interception for a touchdown.

However, Rodgers returned in the third quarter and led Green Bay to an incredible 24-23 comeback victory, capped off by a 75-yard touchdown strike to Randall Cobb late in the fourth quarter. The Bears managed a cover as seven-point underdogs, but left Green Bay with a division loss as quarterback Mitchell Trubisky threw for 171 yards and rushed for a touchdown. Chicago has dropped 10 straight division contests dating back to December 2016, while last winning a road game against an NFC North opponent in 2015 at Green Bay.

SEATTLE DUE?

The task for Pete Carroll’s team on Monday night is try to not only pick up their first win of the season, but also halt this seven-game road losing streak in September. The Seahawks started 0-2 on the road last season (and 0-2 overall), but managed to win five of their next six games away from CenturyLink Field, while going 8-4 overall before a late meltdown prevented Seattle from the postseason.

Since Carroll arrived in Seattle back in 2010, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 through two road games twice (2011 and 2015), while the Seahawks are riding an 0-4 ATS streak in the last four Week 2’s dating back to 2014.

LAY THE POINTS AND RUN

In Trubisky’s rookie season, the Bears covered in all four opportunities as a home underdog, including outright victories over the Steelers and Panthers. However, Chicago struggled when laying points by posting a 1-2 SU/ATS record with the only victory coming against the winless Browns in Week 16. Dating back to the start of 2015, the Bears own a dreadful 1-7 SU/ATS mark as a favorite, including six outright losses at Soldier Field.

SERIES HISTORY

These two teams are meeting for the first time since 2015 when the Seahawks crushed the Bears, 26-0 as 16 ½-point favorites at CenturyLink Field. Seattle had started the season 0-2 before picking up that shutout, while limiting Chicago to 146 yards of offense. Wilson hooked up with Jimmy Graham for the only offensive touchdown, while Lockett returned the second half kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown.

Seattle has captured four of the past five matchups with Chicago since 2010, while making its first trip to Soldier Field since 2012. The Seahawks held off the Bears in overtime, 23-17 as three-point underdogs in December 2012, as the last four meetings in Chicago have sailed OVER the total.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Seahawks have appeared on Monday night football once in each of the past seven seasons. Seattle has compiled a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in this stretch, while making its first road appearance on a Monday night since 2014 in a 10-point victory at Washington.

The Bears have split their last six Monday night contests since 2014, but interestingly enough have gone 1-3 at home in this stretch. Chicago was squeezed by Minnesota in the final seconds last season, 20-17 at Soldier Field in Trubisky’s first start, but the Bears barely covered as 3 ½-point underdogs.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on Seattle’s performance at Denver, “There were some positives for a Seahawks team with perhaps the most grounded expectations entering Carroll’s ninth season. Earl Thomas returned in time for the game and made an impact with an interception as a veteran leader on a defense that has lost many key players the past two years. Wilson nearly willed Seattle to a win by himself as the Seahawks had three late possessions down three late in the game and lost by just three despite running 17 fewer offensive plays.”

On the flip side, Nelson looks at Chicago’s late meltdown at Green Bay, “Trubisky took four sacks and gained just 4.9 yards per pass, but he had only one turnover and that was in a desperation fourth down play at the end of the game. The running game produced 5.1 yards per carry as the offense could be improved for Chicago after scoring just 16.5 points per game last season as Matt Nagy’s offensive background could pay dividends over time now in his second game as head coach.”

LINE MOVEMENT

This line has stayed pretty steady since the Bears opened up as three-point favorites last Sunday night. Chicago is currently a 3 ½-point favorite at most books, while other books that have the Bears at -3 will make you pay -120 juice. The total opened at 43 ½, but has slightly moved to 43 at many outlets.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 Best Bets - Sides
September 13, 2018
By Bookmaker

Week 2 NFL Best Bets – Sides

Last week's selections were able to split the board as the Minnesota Vikings did enough to defend their turf and cover the 6.5 points they were laying, while the Chargers continued to get plagued by self-inflicted mistakes and feeling like they are the visitors when they are at home. Until this Chargers team strings a few wins together, chances are that non-home field advantage that they have won't go away.

So it's on to Week 2 now and we've got quite a few interesting games on the board, especially division rivalries. The divisional rivalries we've got this week should be great as they include Minnesota/GB, Houston/Tennessee, Carolina/Atlanta, Miami/NY Jets, Arizona/LA Rams, Oakland/Denver, and NY Giants/Dallas all going head-to head.

One of those games I'll touch on a bit later, but for now it's all about getting a few ATS wins in our pocket this week and it begins with a team looking for their first SU win in years.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet #1: Cleveland Browns +9

Hopefully like many of the readers at VegasInsider.com, I was able to catch this great Hot/Not piece by a colleague at the site this week, as they stated how bad of a situation this could be for Cleveland Browns fans this week. No road team coming off a rare tie game this century has gone on to cover the point spread (0-9 ATS) and usually it's the Cleveland Browns who are apart of streaks like that, not the ones trying to snap it.

Look, I get it, the Saints were embarrassed at home as a double-digit favorite and now they definitely want to take a big piece out of their next opponent because of it. But can you really trust a Saints defense that just spent weeks/months preparing for backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – they knew he'd be starting forever - and then let him light them up in the fashion he did? I just don't see how you can to be honest.

Furthermore, the Saints are in a tough spot themselves this week as teams that have scored 40+ one week and are at home the next are just 10-17 ATS the last three years. Make them a home favorite and you get that number squeezed down to 10-15 ATS for teams in that spot. Not exactly a huge percentage in favor of a Browns play here, but favor those home teams that scored 40+ by six or more points and you get a 2-7 ATS run over the past two seasons for these squads.

The Browns are going to be freewheeling and taking whatever shots they can this year – at least until they get a win – and New Orleans defense isn't going to provide much resistance in that regard. Whether or not there is a hangover effect for the Saints defense given how their season ended a year ago we will probably never know, but that's the side of the ball that's really going to hold Brees and the rest of the team back in 2018.

This game probably isn't the automatic double-digit win many believe it is with the lowly Browns coming to town, because a back door cover is always going to be available to Cleveland with how bad this Saints defense is, and until New Orleans shows me something this year on that side of the ball (and does so for multiple weeks), fading the Saints as sizable favorites is something I'm looking to do.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet #1: Oakland Raiders +6

This is another line where I see this game as a battle of perception vs reality as the Oakland Raiders really did look bad on MNF in losing to the Rams. The entire Gruden Era – Part Deux has been quite a disaster overall for the Raiders and their stock is so low right now that bettors have been lining up all week to get a piece of Denver ATS this week.

Betting percentages at VegasInsider.com currently show about 80% of the bets made already on this game coming Denver's way. The Broncos did look solid in beating Seattle at home a week ago, but that game was close throughout and was decided by a FG. Seattle was not a team many thought highly of entering the year either, but are they really considered about a FG better than Oakland after just one week?

That's essentially the question you've got to ask yourself here as it was just a week ago that Seattle was in the same spot; on the road in Denver, and they were catching +3 to +3.5 points. Oakland, a division rival, now visits Denver after an opening week loss and are bet up to +6? I just don't see it as the -4/4.5 line oddsmakers opened up here was probably where it should have been and definitely should have stayed.

Oakland is not going to show themselves in as bad a light as they did in that 2nd half on MNF and I'll gladly take the few extra points of value here with the Raiders. This game is likely going to be decided by a FG (as the Seattle game was) as I'm not so sure Denver is that great of a team worthy of laying nearly a TD in Week 2.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 2
September 15, 2018
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,123 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 2

1) Houston PK (1,514)
2) N.Y. Giants +3 (933)
3) Pittsburgh -4 (910)
4) New England -1 (902)
5) Philadelphia -3.5 (808)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 2 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Baltimore (PK) 238 Cincinnati (PK) 182

Indianapolis (+6) 680 Washington (-6) 399

Carolina (+6) 540 Atlanta (-6) 471

Minnesota (-7) 165 Green Bay (+7) 580

L.A. Chargers (-7) 781 Buffalo (+7) 180

Houston (PK) 1514 Tennessee (PK) 80

Kansas City (+4) 425 Pittsburgh (-4) 910

Miami (+2.5) 322 N.Y. Jets (-2.5) 613

Philadelphia (-3.5) 808 Tampa Bay (+3.5) 254

Cleveland (+8.5) 145 New Orleans (-8.5) 675

Arizona (+12.5) 175 L.A. Rams (-12.5) 536

Detroit (+6) 297 San Francisco (-6) 605

New England (-1) 902 Jacksonville (+1) 388

Oakland (+6) 273 Denver (-6) 386

N.Y. Giants (+3) 933 Dallas (-3) 251

Seattle (+3.5) 537 Chicago (-3.5) 350



WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 4-1 4-1 80%
2 - - -
3 - - -
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 2
September 15, 2018
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 11-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since Oct 05, 2014 on the road coming off a win where they did not commit a turnover.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-11 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 as a home favorite coming off a road loss where they failed to cover.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Broncos are 0-8 OU (-10.4 ppg) since Dec 28, 2015 coming off a game where Emmanuel Sanders had at least seven receptions.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Winless teams which are at least 7.5 point home dogs are 45-29-1 OU. Active on Cleveland.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 11-0-1 OU (10.2 ppg) since Nov 17, 2002 as a dog of more than a TD coming off a game where the failed to cover by at least a touchdown.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 0-10-2 OU (-8.9 ppg) since Dec 13, 2015 coming off a win where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Saints are 0-13 ATS (-12.31 ppg) as a home favorite over a winless opponent after week one and they are not laying two TDs or more.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 2
September 15, 2018
By Chris David

The 765 points scored in Week 1, an average of 47.8 points per game, was the third highest all-time scoring opening weekend according to the NFL. Helping that cause was 12 return touchdowns and half of them came from pick-six interceptions. Despite the outburst, total bettors saw solid two-way results as the ‘over’ produced a 9-7 record. Savvy bettors leaning high in the second-half managed to turn a nice profit (10-6) as well.

2018 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 1 9-7 7-9 10-6
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 9-7 7-9 10-6

My handicapping style leans on seasonal trends and I like to incorporate them as they develop. For now, a couple early angles to watch are the ‘over’ leans in divisional games and contests played indoors. The Coastal category is teams traveling East to West and vice versa. Last week, the Redskins-Cardinals game was an easy ‘under’ ticket and the only game featured in this category for Week 2 is between the Chargers and Bills.

2018 RESULTS - OTHER
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 1 2-2 4-0 3-1 0-1

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 2-2 4-0 3-1 0-1

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 1 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

L.A. Chargers at Buffalo: 44 ½ to 42 ½
Houston at Tennessee: 45 to 43
Kansas City at Pittsburgh: 50 ½ to 53
Arizona at L.A. Rams: 46 ½ to 44 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Dolphins-Jets: 92% Under
Texans-Titans: 92% Under
Raiders-Broncos: 88% Over
Cardinals-Rams: 87% Under
Patriots-Jaguars: 86% Under

Divisional Matchups

The divisional action picks up the pace in Week 2 with eight matchups and that includes Thursday’s ‘over’ result between the Bengals and Ravens. Including that outcome, bettors should note that the first five divisional games this season have leaned to the high side.

Carolina at Atlanta: The ‘under’ went 2-0 in this series last season with a combined 37 and 32 points posted. We could be in for another dogfight here and unfortunately key injuries have been the headliner for this week’s matchup. Both clubs saw the ‘under’ connect easily in Week 1.

Minnesota at Green Bay: Very tough game to handicap due to the status of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If he plays, expect the total to be in the neighborhood of 46 to 47. If he doesn’t, then take away six points perhaps more. The ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in the last seven encounters, which includes a 2-0 record from last season.

Houston at Tennessee: Another game affected by injuries, more so on the Tennessee roster. Each club scored 20 points in their Week 1 loss and both left points off the board. The total has been a stalemate the last two seasons (2-2) with the ‘over’ hitting in both games from Houston while the ‘under’ went 2-0 in Nashville. Texans QB Deshaun Watson only faced the Titans once last season and he helped them post a 57-14 win at Houston.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: The ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and we’ve seen the winner bust 30 points three times during that span. Miami’s defense was suspect on the road (27.4 PPG) last season but they also had trouble scoring (12.4 PPG). New York posted 48 at Detroit in Week 1 with help from the defense and special teams. It’s hard to imagine the Jets posting another crooked number.

Arizona at L.A. Rams: No solid trends for this matchup with the last 10 encounters breaking even (5-5) for total bettors. Los Angeles did post 33 and 32 in two blowout wins over the Cardinals last season and another romp is expected on Sunday. The Rams were great on the road last season but only 3-5 at home. However, Los Angeles did post 46-9 and 33-7 wins over the Colts and Texans respectively when expected to act like a bully. Déjà vu here?

Oakland at Denver: The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings and we only saw one game surpass 40 combined points during this span. This week’s total listed at 46, which seems high based on the current head-to-head trend. However, both the Broncos (470 yards) and Raiders (395 yards) moved the ball in Week 1.

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: (See Below)

AFC vs. NFC

Two of the higher totals in Week 2 takes place in non-conference games.

Indianapolis at Washington: The return of Andrew Luck at QB for the Colts certainly gives them a chance to score on a weekly basis but the Indy defense still appears to be shaky. Washington controlled the clock (38-22 minutes) against Arizona last week and only had nine drives. If you’re getting TDs, that style helps ‘over’ bettors but the pace definitely leans to the ‘under.’ For what it’s worth, the ‘over’ has gone 8-1 in the past nine encounters between the pair.

Cleveland at New Orleans: The Saints were diced up in Week 1 and the books are expecting a solid rebound. New Orleans on a 7-3 ‘over’ in its last 10 at home and that includes a 2-0 record versus AFC teams in the Superdome. Cleveland saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in four games versus the NFC last season and even though the Browns earned a tie in Week 1, the defense allowed 472 yards to Pittsburgh. These teams met in Week 2 of the 2014 regular season and Cleveland stunned New Orleans 26-24 as a five-point home ‘dog while the ‘over’ (49) barely cashed on a late field goal.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday’s result between the Ravens and Bengals, the ‘over’ is 3-2 in this year’s primetime games.

SNF - N.Y. Giants at Dallas: What was once an automatic ‘over’ wager in this matchup has now become a strong ‘under’ lean. The last four meetings have gone to the low side and two of the games during this span were played on Sunday Night and those results ended 19-3 and 10-7. It’s hard to imagine much spark after what we saw from both clubs in Week 1 but to be fair, they did face quality defensive units (Jaguars, Panthers).

MNF - Seattle at Chicago: I expect this total (43) to hold steady or drop by kickoff as most bettors will point to the Bears stout defense and inconsistent offense. That attack might be able to get going against Seattle, who gave up 470 yards to Denver in Week 1. The Seahawks have watched the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six road games versus NFC opponents and playing back-to-back games away from home could keep that trend intact. Chicago posted a 6-2 ‘under’ mark at Soldier Field last season and only one game managed to go over this week’s number.

Fearless Predictions

Opening weekend is never easy but we turned a profit ($195) on the weekend and the Teaser featured two of the high-scoring shootouts. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Miami-N.Y. Jets 43

Best Under: Indianapolis-Washington 48 ½

Best Team Total: Over 20 ½ Tampa Bay

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Under 60 ½ Kansas City-Pittsburgh
Over 36 ½ Philadelphia-Tampa Bay
Under 50 ½ Seattle-Chicago

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 2
September 15, 2018
By Chris David

The 765 points scored in Week 1, an average of 47.8 points per game, was the third highest all-time scoring opening weekend according to the NFL. Helping that cause was 12 return touchdowns and half of them came from pick-six interceptions. Despite the outburst, total bettors saw solid two-way results as the ‘over’ produced a 9-7 record. Savvy bettors leaning high in the second-half managed to turn a nice profit (10-6) as well.

2018 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 1 9-7 7-9 10-6
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 9-7 7-9 10-6

My handicapping style leans on seasonal trends and I like to incorporate them as they develop. For now, a couple early angles to watch are the ‘over’ leans in divisional games and contests played indoors. The Coastal category is teams traveling East to West and vice versa. Last week, the Redskins-Cardinals game was an easy ‘under’ ticket and the only game featured in this category for Week 2 is between the Chargers and Bills.

2018 RESULTS - OTHER
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 1 2-2 4-0 3-1 0-1

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 2-2 4-0 3-1 0-1

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 1 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

L.A. Chargers at Buffalo: 44 ½ to 42 ½
Houston at Tennessee: 45 to 43
Kansas City at Pittsburgh: 50 ½ to 53
Arizona at L.A. Rams: 46 ½ to 44 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Dolphins-Jets: 92% Under
Texans-Titans: 92% Under
Raiders-Broncos: 88% Over
Cardinals-Rams: 87% Under
Patriots-Jaguars: 86% Under

Divisional Matchups

The divisional action picks up the pace in Week 2 with eight matchups and that includes Thursday’s ‘over’ result between the Bengals and Ravens. Including that outcome, bettors should note that the first five divisional games this season have leaned to the high side.

Carolina at Atlanta: The ‘under’ went 2-0 in this series last season with a combined 37 and 32 points posted. We could be in for another dogfight here and unfortunately key injuries have been the headliner for this week’s matchup. Both clubs saw the ‘under’ connect easily in Week 1.

Minnesota at Green Bay: Very tough game to handicap due to the status of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If he plays, expect the total to be in the neighborhood of 46 to 47. If he doesn’t, then take away six points perhaps more. The ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in the last seven encounters, which includes a 2-0 record from last season.

Houston at Tennessee: Another game affected by injuries, more so on the Tennessee roster. Each club scored 20 points in their Week 1 loss and both left points off the board. The total has been a stalemate the last two seasons (2-2) with the ‘over’ hitting in both games from Houston while the ‘under’ went 2-0 in Nashville. Texans QB Deshaun Watson only faced the Titans once last season and he helped them post a 57-14 win at Houston.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: The ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and we’ve seen the winner bust 30 points three times during that span. Miami’s defense was suspect on the road (27.4 PPG) last season but they also had trouble scoring (12.4 PPG). New York posted 48 at Detroit in Week 1 with help from the defense and special teams. It’s hard to imagine the Jets posting another crooked number.

Arizona at L.A. Rams: No solid trends for this matchup with the last 10 encounters breaking even (5-5) for total bettors. Los Angeles did post 33 and 32 in two blowout wins over the Cardinals last season and another romp is expected on Sunday. The Rams were great on the road last season but only 3-5 at home. However, Los Angeles did post 46-9 and 33-7 wins over the Colts and Texans respectively when expected to act like a bully. Déjà vu here?

Oakland at Denver: The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings and we only saw one game surpass 40 combined points during this span. This week’s total listed at 46, which seems high based on the current head-to-head trend. However, both the Broncos (470 yards) and Raiders (395 yards) moved the ball in Week 1.

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: (See Below)

AFC vs. NFC

Two of the higher totals in Week 2 takes place in non-conference games.

Indianapolis at Washington: The return of Andrew Luck at QB for the Colts certainly gives them a chance to score on a weekly basis but the Indy defense still appears to be shaky. Washington controlled the clock (38-22 minutes) against Arizona last week and only had nine drives. If you’re getting TDs, that style helps ‘over’ bettors but the pace definitely leans to the ‘under.’ For what it’s worth, the ‘over’ has gone 8-1 in the past nine encounters between the pair.

Cleveland at New Orleans: The Saints were diced up in Week 1 and the books are expecting a solid rebound. New Orleans on a 7-3 ‘over’ in its last 10 at home and that includes a 2-0 record versus AFC teams in the Superdome. Cleveland saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in four games versus the NFC last season and even though the Browns earned a tie in Week 1, the defense allowed 472 yards to Pittsburgh. These teams met in Week 2 of the 2014 regular season and Cleveland stunned New Orleans 26-24 as a five-point home ‘dog while the ‘over’ (49) barely cashed on a late field goal.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday’s result between the Ravens and Bengals, the ‘over’ is 3-2 in this year’s primetime games.

SNF - N.Y. Giants at Dallas: What was once an automatic ‘over’ wager in this matchup has now become a strong ‘under’ lean. The last four meetings have gone to the low side and two of the games during this span were played on Sunday Night and those results ended 19-3 and 10-7. It’s hard to imagine much spark after what we saw from both clubs in Week 1 but to be fair, they did face quality defensive units (Jaguars, Panthers).

MNF - Seattle at Chicago: I expect this total (43) to hold steady or drop by kickoff as most bettors will point to the Bears stout defense and inconsistent offense. That attack might be able to get going against Seattle, who gave up 470 yards to Denver in Week 1. The Seahawks have watched the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six road games versus NFC opponents and playing back-to-back games away from home could keep that trend intact. Chicago posted a 6-2 ‘under’ mark at Soldier Field last season and only one game managed to go over this week’s number.

Fearless Predictions

Opening weekend is never easy but we turned a profit ($195) on the weekend and the Teaser featured two of the high-scoring shootouts. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Miami-N.Y. Jets 43

Best Under: Indianapolis-Washington 48 ½

Best Team Total: Over 20 ½ Tampa Bay

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Under 60 ½ Kansas City-Pittsburgh
Over 36 ½ Philadelphia-Tampa Bay
Under 50 ½ Seattle-Chicago

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 - Sunday Blitz
September 14, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Vikings at Packers – 1:00 PM EST

An important NFC North game in Week 2 takes place at Lambeau Field with one extremely important question. Will Packers’ star quarterback Aaron Rodgers suit up or sit out after suffering a knee injury last week against Chicago? Green Bay seemed dead in the water after trailing, 20-0 and Rodgers carted off, but he returned in the second half to lead a monumental rally in a 24-23 victory.

Rodgers hopes to play to give the Packers an opportunity at not only a 2-0 overall record, but 2-0 mark inside the division. The last time Rodgers faced the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium last season, Minnesota linebacker Anthony Barr drilled the two-time league MVP into the ground and broke Rodgers’ collarbone. The end result of that hit was Rodgers being sidelined for nine games and the Vikings capturing the NFC North title.

Minnesota heads to Lambeau Field following a 24-16 victory over San Francisco in the season opener. The Vikings grabbed the cover as six-point favorites, while causing four 49ers’ turnovers, including a pick-six on San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kirk Cousins put together a solid debut for Minnesota by throwing for 244 yards and two touchdowns as the Vikings improved to 10-1 in their last 11 home contests.

The Vikings compiled a 6-2 record on the highway last season, which included a 16-0 shutout of the Packers at Lambeau Field in December. Minnesota has won and covered four of the past five matchups in the series, including two of the past three trips to Green Bay. The UNDER has been a strong look in this series as well by hitting in seven of the last eight meetings.

Best Bet: Vikings 27, Packers 21

Eagles (-3, 44) at Buccaneers – 1:00 PM EST

It wasn’t pretty, but following a weather delay, the defending champion Eagles raised their Super Bowl banner and knocked off the Falcons last Thursday, 18-12. With Carson Wentz still sidelined, Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles overcame a subpar performance (19-of-34 for 117 yards and interception) to lift Philadelphia to its second low-scoring home win over Atlanta in 2018 after eliminating the Falcons in the second round last season.

The Eagles moved to 12-1 in their last 13 home contests, but travel to Florida this week to face a Buccaneers’ squad that shocked the Saints as 10 ½-point underdogs last week, 48-40. Ryan Fitzpatrick torched the New Orleans’ defense for 417 yards and four touchdown passes, while both Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson recorded at least 145 yards receiving and a total of three touchdown catches. Tampa Bay picked up its third consecutive opening day win, unfortunately the Bucs haven’t started 2-0 since 2010.

The Eagles have slumped to a 2-4 ATS record under Doug Pederson as a road favorite, but Philadelphia won six of eight games away from Lincoln Financial Field last season. The Bucs have covered in four of their past five opportunities as a home underdog since 2016, while the Eagles are traveling to Tampa Bay for the first time since 2013. In the last meeting in 2015 at the Linc, the Bucs steamrolled the Eagles, 45-17 as seven-point underdogs, led by Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes.

Best Bet: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 17

Patriots (-1, 45) at Jaguars – 4:25 PM EST

Jacksonville nearly pulled off the upset of New England in the AFC Championship this past January, but fell apart in the second half of a 24-20 defeat. The Jaguars managed to cover as 7 ½-point underdogs, but missed out on the first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history, while Tom Brady hit Danny Amendola for a pair of touchdown tosses in the fourth quarter.

Fast forward eight months later and the two squads hook up again, this time at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. Both teams captured opening week wins, while the Jaguars won in Week 1 for the second straight year following a dry spell in openers from 2012 through 2016. The Jaguars held off the Giants last week, 20-15 as New York’s lone touchdown came on rookie Saquon Barkley’s 68-yard touchdown in the fourth. Jacksonville picked up the cover as three-point favorites, although running back Leonard Fournette left with a hamstring injury as the former LSU star is a game-time decision on Sunday.

The Patriots held off the Texans, 27-20 to barely cash as 6 ½-point favorites, although New England jumped out to a 21-6 halftime lead. Brady threw three touchdown passes in the first half to three different receivers, including an early hookup with tight end Rob Gronkowski, who finished with 123 yards receiving.

New England enters Sunday’s action riding a five-game winning streak in Week 2 action, while winning three of those games on the road by an average of 15.6 points per game. Jacksonville covered in five of seven opportunities as an underdog last season, while winning six of eight home contests. Brady has never lost to Jacksonville in his career in eight starts since 2003, including two victories at TIAA Bank Field.

Best Bet: Patriots 31, Jaguars 17

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (1-3-1 last week)
Steelers -4
Falcons -6
Bills +7
Dolphins +2 ½
Cardinals +12 ½

Chris David (4-1 last week)
Steelers -4
Falcons -6
Texans PK
Jaguars +1
Seahawks +3 ½

SURVIVOR PICKS

Kevin Rogers (Green Bay last week):
New Orleans over Cleveland

Chris David (Baltimore last week)
L.A. Rams over Arizona

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 1-0 this season)

UNDER 53 – Chiefs at Steelers

Easily drilled the UNDER last week between the Redskins and Cardinals and going that same route again this week. These two AFC rivals have played every season for the last four years and even twice in 2016. Five of those six matchups have finished UNDER the total, while the Chiefs have failed to bust 16 in the last three meetings. Yes, Patrick Mahomes was not under center for Kansas City in those games as the former Texas Tech standout threw four touchdown passes in last week’s 38-28 victory over the Chargers. However, Los Angeles was limited to 12 points in the first three quarters, while Pittsburgh held a 21-7 fourth quarter lead at Cleveland before the Browns scored two late touchdowns to ultimately tie the Steelers.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

Are the Bills really as bad as they looked last week in a 47-3 blowout loss to the Ravens? Buffalo returns home to host Los Angeles as the Chargers had high expectations placed on them heading into the season. The Lightning Bolts are 0-1 out of the gate after losing at Kansas City, but did rout the Bills last season by 30 points at home. Los Angeles opened as a 7 ½-point favorite at Buffalo this week, as rookie Josh Allen gets the start at quarterback for the Bills. Don’t be too fast to jump on the Chargers, as the Bolts have lost six of their last seven road September games.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The 49ers opened as three-point home favorites against the Lions after San Francisco lost at Minnesota in Week 1. However, that line skyrocketed to San Francisco laying six points following Detroit’s abysmal effort in last Monday’s blowout loss to the Jets. The Lions host the Patriots next Sunday night, as Detroit heads to the Bay Area off a 5-3 road record last season.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Three teams are playing on the road for the second straight week to open the season (Texans, Chiefs, and Seahawks). Kansas City was the lone team to win while Houston and Seattle came up. Why is this important? Teams don’t normally start 2-0 when both games are on the highway as only three squads have conquered this gauntlet since 2008 (2009 Vikings, 2010 Dolphins, and 2013 Dolphins). Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 twice with both games on the road, as Seattle tries to buck that trend on Monday at Chicago.

[StarDust Bum]

B]Sunday’s six-pack
[/B]
Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Houston even (1,514)
2) NJ Giants +3 (933)
3) Pittsburgh -4 (910)
4) New England -1 (902)
5) Philadelphia -3.5 (808)
6) LA Chargers -7 (781)

Season record: 4-1-1

Tweet of the Day
“The difference between a night game and a day game at Tiger Stadium is that at night you can smell the bourbon on the field.”
Former LSU football coach Mike Archer

Sunday’s quiz
Where did ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit play college football?

Saturday’s quiz
Mike Sherman was coach of the Packers before Mike McCarthy.

Friday’s quiz
Bill Belichick went 37-45 as coach of the old Cleveland Browns from 1991-95, just before they moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens; he won one playoff game, against the Patriots.


*******************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Troy 24, Nebraska 19— Cornhuskers are 0-2 for first time since 1957; their QB Martinez sat this game out- walk-on sophomore Bunch played instead.

This is what happens now; when a team has a QB competition in the summer, the player who loses the competition transfers, because no one wants to be a backup, and it leaves the team very thin at QB.

12) Syracuse 30, Florida State 7— This was no fluke; Syracuse outgained them 450-240; FSU was 1-14 on third down conversions- they’re 1-2 and they trailed a I-AA team at halftime in the one game they did win.

Seminoles’ offense is TERRIBLE; their OL doesn’t block much, and their QB didn’t show much of a football IQ at the end of the first half.

Syracuse led 6-0 but FSU had the ball in the SU red zone (orange zone?); Seminoles didn’t have any timeouts left, but the QB threw a pass by the numbers, the receiver got tackled, and the half ended with no points being scored. Throw it in the end zone, or the sidelines, or throw it away, and at least they kick a field goal. No bueno.

11) Not the best day for the Big 14:
— Rutgers lost 55-14 at KANSAS
— Wisconsin lost at home to Brigham Young.
— Northwestern lost at home to Akron.
— Nebraska lost at home to Troy.
— Illinois lost to South Florida before a small crowd at Soldier Field.
— Missouri 40, Purdue 37
— Maryland lost 35-14 at home to Temple; Terps scored zero points on offense; their TD’s were scored by the defense and on a blocked punt.

10) LSU 22, Auburn 21— How much talent does Ohio State have? Buckeyes’ 3rd-string QB transfers to LSU, becomes the starter there and already has a road win at Auburn, and a neutral field win over Miami. LSU chewed up the final 5:38 on the game-winning drive.

Interviews with Ed Orgeron are odd; can’t understand 80% of what the guy is saying.

9) Oklahoma 37, Iowa State 27— Sooners avenged their home loss to Iowa State last year, but Cyclones have a WR named Hakeem Butler who is an NFL player- he had five catches for 174 yards and two TD’s. Very impressive player.

8) Upsets of the Day:
BYU (+21.5) 24, Wisconsin 21
Akron (+21) 39, Nebraska 34
Temple (+17) 35, Maryland 14
Troy (+11) 24, Nebraska 19
LSU (+10.5) 22, Auburn 21
North Texas (+7) 44, Arkansas 17

7) Cleveland Browns cut WR Josh Gordon, who is both talented/troubled, and after six years, obviously became more trouble than he is worth.

6) South Florida 25, Illinois 19— Blake Barnett is USF’s QB; he was Alabama’s starting QB in the 2016 opener, got yanked for Jalen Hurts, then transferred to a junior college, then Arizona State, where he threw only five passes, and now USF— his Bulls are off to a 3-0 start.

In a way Barnett is the poster boy for the “If I ain’t startin’, then I’m departin’” age of college football; he got beat out by Hurts at Alabama and then Manny Wilkins at ASU, and he quickly left both schools.

They said on TV during the USF-Georgia Tech game last week that USF coach Charlie Strong told Barnett that he has to prove to people now that he isn’t a quitter. We’ll see what happens.

5) North Texas 44, Arkansas 17— Razorbacks blew a big lead and lost at Colorado State LW, then got crushed here by a team from Conference USA. When you throw six INT’s in a game, you lose. Think the natives are restless?

Arkansas’ 3rd-string QB threw a pick-6, which normally wouldn’t be news, except the kid is John Stephen Jones, Jerry Jones’ grandson. Rough day all around for Arkansas.

4) Texas Tech 63, Houston 49— Sixteen TD’s, no FGs. one turnover in this touch football game where a total of 192 plays were run, for 1,376 yards. Freshman QB Alan Bowman was 43-59 for 605 yards, five TDs and no INTs.

By way of contrast, the Dallas-Carolina NFL game last week had 118 plays for 525 yards; there is more action in college football, for the most part.

3) Missouri 40, Purdue 37— Boilermakers are 0-3, with three losses by total of eight points. 3-0 Mizzou kicked a FG at the gun to win this game- they host Georgia next week.

2) Ohio State 40, TCU 28— Buckeyes scored 20 points in a 4:01 span of the 3rd quarter, erasing a 21-13 Horned Frog lead, and breaking game open. Up until that point, this was a really good game.

TCU got $5M to move this game from their campus stadium in Fort Worth to Jerry World in Arlington; the return match for next year in Columbus was scrapped.

1) Texas 37, USC 14— Trojans lost 17-3 at Stanford last week, then lost by three TD’s here; college football is one sport where a coach’s job security goes in the ashcan in a matter of eight days.

Texas blocked FG for a TD with 6:25 left to play; a made FG would’ve cut Texas’ lead to 23-17. Trojans’ punter had a rough night; USC’s special teams are screwed up right now.

I’ve said this several times already, but no idea why USC is starting a young man at QB who should still be a senior in high school. He is playing against a lot of guys 4-5 years older than he is.

[StarDust Bum]

Public bettors like Saints' odds in NFL Week 2; sportsbooks rooting for Browns to cover
Patrick Everson

Drew Brees and the Saints laid a huge egg at home in Week 1, losing outright to Tampa Bay as 10-point chalk. But public bettors are on New Orleans in Week 2, for a home tilt against Cleveland.

Week 2 of the NFL season brings with it a 14-game Sunday slate, with some intrigue on both sides of the betting counter. We check in on the action and line movement for a quartet of contests, with insights from Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts sportsbooks.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints – Open: -8.5; Move: -9

New Orleans suffered a stunning season-opening loss, for which pretty much every sportsbook in business was grateful. The Saints went off as 10-point home favorites against Tampa Bay – which was minus the suspended Jameis Winston, instead starting Ryan Fitzpatrick – and lost outright in a shootout, 48-40.

Cleveland knows all about losing outright, going 0-16 SU last year and having not won a game since Christmas Eve 2016. But the Browns got pretty close in Week 1, with a late touchdown to force overtime in what ended up a 21-21 tie with Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point home underdog.

However, bettors were hardly swayed by Cleveland’s near win.

“We need the Browns big time,” Stoneback said, noting that while the line is 9, it could very well see 9.5 by the 1 p.m. ET kickoff. “It’s gonna be a big game for us. The pointspread money is 6/1 and the ticket count is 2/1 on New Orleans. The public is all over the Saints.”

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets – Open: -3; Move: -2.5

New York quarterback Sam Darnold threw a pick-six on his first NFL attempt, which sure seemed like a bad harbinger. But that was it in the turnover column for Darnold, and the Jets picked off Matthew Stafford four times and Matt Cassel once on the way to a stunning 48-17 beatdown of Detroit as a 7-point road ‘dog on Monday night.

Miami also got out of the Week 1 gate with a win and cover, in a game that took forever due to multiple weather delays. More than seven hours after the game started, the Dolphins completed a 27-20 home victory over Tennessee as a 1-point home pup.

“We need the Dolphins,” Stoneback said, noting that’s the case despite this line tightening a half-point, with the Jets at -2.5 (-120) for another 1 p.m. ET kick. “We took a large casino play on the Jets. The pointspread ticket count is about 4/1 on New York, and the money is about 3/1.”

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -5.5; Move: -6

After a strong finish last season behind new QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco certainly had some momentum, but not enough to overcome one of the league’s top defenses in Week 1. The 49ers lost to Minnesota 24-16 catching 6 points on the road, with Garoppolo throwing three picks and San Fran fumbling away the ball on a second-and-goal from the 1-yard line.

Not to be outdone, Detroit was even more turnover prone in its season opener. The Lions got out to a 7-0 lead over the Jets with a pick-six on the first throw of Sam Darnold’s NFL career, but Matthew Stafford followed with four interceptions, and Matt Patricia’s troops got boatraced 48-17 laying 7 points at home Monday night.

“We’ve taken some 49er money on Saturday,” Stoneback said, noting the move to San Fran -6 (-120) for this 4:05 p.m. ET start. “It’s a 4/1 pointspread ticket count, and the money is 5/1, so that’s a big decision for us. We’re gonna need the Lions.”
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: +3.5; Move: +3; Move: +3.5

Tampa Bay certainly turned some heads in Week 1, going off as a 10-point road ‘dog and winning outright. The Buccaneers were without suspended QB Jameis Winston, but longtime NFL QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had an outstanding outing, throwing for 417 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-40 victory.

Philadelphia didn’t light up the scoreboard anywhere near that level, nor the level achieved in winning the Super Bowl last season. But the Eagles scored just enough, netting a late touchdown to top Atlanta 18-12 in the Thursday night kickoff to the 2018-19 campaign.

“We took some money on the Bucs on Saturday, so we’re at +3.5 (-120),” Stoneback said of action on this 1 p.m. ET meeting. “We need the Eagles a little bit, but I’m sure we’ll get balanced out in New Jersey.”

It’s a fair expectation, as the Borgata in Atlantic City – just an hour from Philadelphia – has attracted plenty of Eagles money since legal sports betting came online in New Jersey in June.

[StarDust Bum]

Philadelphia Eagles' quarterback Carson Wentz will not play in Week 2, but is expected to be cleared for contact in practice this week.
The Eagles host the Colts in Week 3, travel to the Titans in Week 4, before hosting the Vikings in Week 5.


Aaron Rodgers WILL START at quarterback for the Green Bay Packers this afternoon at home vs. the Minnesota Vikings.
Current Spread: Packers +3
Current Total: 44.5


**********************


The Tennessee Titans will be without left tackle Taylor Lewan, right tackle Jack Conklin, and backup right tackle Dennis Kelly today vs. the Houston Texans.
Current Spread: Texans -3.5 Current Total: 41


******************************


The Houston Texans will be without pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney this afternoon @ the Titans.
Current Spread: Texans -3.5 Current Total: 41.5