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**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2018, 12:56 AM

Friday

Florida Atlantic/Central Florida haven’t met since ’03; UCF is off a bye- their game was PPD last week by hurricane in North Carolina. Since 2010, Knights are 26-17-2 as home favorites; since ’14, they’re 10-7 as double digit favorites. Owls gave up 525 yards in splitting pair of games vs Oklahoma/Air Force. Since 2012, FAU is 19-8-1 as road underdogs, but they are 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as double digit underdogs. Last six years, AAC teams are 13-12 vs spread when playing C-USA teams, 0-3 so far this season.

Penn State won four of last five games with Illinois (2-3 vs spread); they lost last visit here, 16-14 in ’14- they crushed Illini 39-0 in last meeting, in ‘15. Nittany Lions play Ohio State next week; they’re 4-5 vs spread in last nine games when laying 20+ points, 6-0-1 vs spread in last seven games week before playing the Buckeyes. Under Franklin, PSU is 6-3 as a road favorite. Illini is 4-7 vs spread as home underdogs; they covered their last four games as a dog of 20+ points.

USC lost last two games, at Texas/Stanford; they were outrushed 160-minus-5 in Austin LW. Trojans are 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as home favorites; since 2013, they’re 13-10 when laying a single-digit spread. Since coming to Washington State, Leach is 2-1 vs USC; Coogs (+5) beat USC 30-27 LY at home- they also won last visit here, 10-7 (+15) in 2013. Under Leach, Wazzu is 16-8 as road underdogs, 13-7 in Pac-12 games; they’re 7-9 vs spread in last 16 games as a double digit dog.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2018, 02:24 PM

*The Triple Option: College football Week 4 picks, predictions and eats*

*Believe it or not, despite a diminutive frame, I played cornerback back in my high school days and while it takes a lot quickness and great reaction to play that position, it comes with one of the harshest lessons in sports – having to bounce back after getting beat for a touchdown.*

I have played a lot of sports in my life. Basketball, baseball, football, rugby and golf among others and without a doubt I have never experienced anything that requires more mental fortitude than playing defensive back. You could be having the game of your life, completely shutting down the guy across from you and boom, you get beat for a 40-yard bomb. It is an awful feeling and just plain sucks.

But to be a successful corner, you must realize that getting beat will happen and you must put that out of your mind and focus on the next play. And there are a lot of similarities when it comes to sports betting.

I get the same feeling when I have a losing week in this column. It’s a real gut shot. I hate losing. You put in a lot of time and effort to present a good rationale for making a pick and then they play the games and sometimes despite your best effort you lose (thank you very much Boise State et al).

Yes, last week was our second consecutive losing week, but we’re going to use the same attitude when it comes to this week’s plays. It happened. It sucks. And we’re moving on. And to help matters out, we’re going to be backing some experienced quarterbacks going up against those who may be a little overmatched, starting with the exciting Nick Fitzgerald for Mississippi State.

The senior duel-threat quarterback, leads a talented Bulldogs offense, which loves to pound the rock, but will also make you pay if they don’t respect the pass. Mix in running back Kylin Hill and you have a recipe for a potent offense.

Mississippi State has passed every test with flying colors, covering with ease in two games where it was 30-plus point favorites. And in its only real test, a trip to Manhattan where Bill Snyder always has his Wildcats ready to play, the Bulldogs rumbled to a 31-10 victory as 6.5-point faves.

On the other side of the ball, Kentucky is just too one-dimensional on offense and the Bulldogs stout defense should make life tough for the Wildcats. Kentucky also failed to cover as a moderate to large favorite in both of its home games against lesser opponents.

Kentucky is obviously one of the feel-good stories in college football, with their 3-0 start and of course beating Florida for the first time in nearly my entire life. But their line for this weekend’s home game against Mississippi State seems disrespectful to the Bulldogs.

Like I said before, people are undervaluing the Bulldogs in this spot. They run all over the Wildcats.

*Pick:* Mississippi State -9.5

*Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers (-5, 54.5)*

The big news in this matchup is obviously the benching of Louisville quarterback Juwan Pass and the immediate reaction was for oddsmakers to move the line from Cavaliers -3 to -5 (it has since come down to -4.5), but I don’t think it should matter either way.

This Virginia team isn’t really special at any one thing, but it doesn’t do anything really poorly at the same time and as a result, is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season. It runs a balanced offense, led by duel-threat quarterback in Bryce Perkins. The junior is completing 64 percent of his passes for 670 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions.

He is joined in the backfield by Jordan Ellis, who has already racked up 380 yards and five scores on the ground at a clip of 7.5 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Louisville’s run defense is allowing 4.2 yards per attempt to the tune of 188 yards per game and the offense ranks near the bottom of the nation in most major categories. And before you go telling me Pass’ replacement Malik Cunningham has been better, he’s done that against Indiana State and Western Kentucky.

The Cardinals are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record. That number improves to 2-10 this weekend.

*Pick:* Virginia -5

*Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers (-16, 60.5)*

I’m all in on Will Grier in 2018. The dude has a special arm and he has a chance to take the Mountaineers a long way this season. (A November 23 versus Oklahoma could be huge).

Grier, a Heisman favorite, is completing 76.7 percent of his passes for 761 with nine touchdowns to just one interception. He has great weapons in Gary Jennings Jr. and David Sills and three running backs who are averaging over six yards per carry.

That means trouble for a K-State team that ranks 86th in total defense and 105th against the run, surrendering 201.3 yards per game on the ground.

The Wildcats have also not found their footing on offense either, barely beating South Dakota State as 24-point faves in their opener and as we said earlier, getting run over at home by the Bulldogs. They won’t be able to keep up with Grier and the Mountaineers in this one.

*Pick:* West Virginia -16

Last week: 1-2
Season to date: 4-5

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2018, 02:33 PM

Georgia prepared for Missouri offense
September 21, 2018

COLUMBIA, Mo. (AP) Georgia's defense has been so good this season it has some opposing quarterbacks in awe.

''It's almost fun to watch when you're watching tape,'' Missouri quarterback Drew Lock said this week. ''They're extremely athletic in the secondary. They're not going to let you chuck it deep on them. They fly around, man.''

Fun? Lock's coach begged to differ.

''I haven't found the fun part of it yet,'' said Barry Odom, whose team hosts second-ranked Georgia on Saturday in an SEC East showdown between two undefeated teams.

The Bulldogs (3-0, 1-0 SEC) have allowed just eight points per game this season, behind only Stanford, and their secondary is allowing the fewest yards per game through the air. In Missouri (3-0, 0-0), the Bulldogs will face an elite offense led by Lock, a Heisman Trophy hopeful who has helped his team put up at least 40 points in every game this season.

''He can make every throw,'' Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. ''He threw the ball outside of the stadium last year on us. I don't know if his arm can get any stronger.''

Georgia has already gone on the road this season, though, carving up No. 24 South Carolina before rolling past Austin Peay and Middle Tennessee by a combined score of 94-7.

While the Bulldogs are a two-touchdown favorite, they know they're in for a test.

''That's why I came here, is to play this good of competition,'' Georgia defensive back J.R. Reed said. ''I love the challenge.''

KEEPING LOCK UP

Georgia has played nearly flawless on defense this season, but Smart pointed out a place where the Bulldogs can improve: Their pass rush has managed just one sack.

''Like I said after the South Carolina game, I didn't think that we rushed the passer real well and affected the quarterback,'' Smart said.

With an experienced offensive line, Lock will be tough to bring down Saturday. The Tigers allowed just one sack per game last year, fifth-best in college football, and have allowed one this season.

GODWIN WATCH

Senior wide receiver Terry Godwin could return for Georgia and that would only add to the offensive weapons. Goodwin hauled in 38 passes for 639 yards and six touchdowns last season.

ANOTHER WEAPON

With three viable running backs, two tight ends and a strong group of wide receivers, Missouri wasn't lacking on offense. But freshman wide receiver Jalen Knox has drawn attention and was the SEC freshman of the week after his five-reception, 110-yard performance last week that included a 59-yard touchdown catch.

AUTOMATIC TOUCHBACK

No opponent has returned one of Georgia junior Rodrigo Blankenship's deep kickoffs. Through three games, his 23 touchbacks lead the nation. That creates the possibility the Bulldogs' kickoff coverage team could be caught napping should a specialist decide to try it.

''We really drive that home each week,'' Smart said. ''We've shown a lot of clips of guys returning the ball nine yards deep. We try to keep them honest. We practice every day where it comes out, even though in a game it hasn't. A lot of our guys are excited for an opportunity for it to come out.''

DOOLEY-SMART CONNECTION

Missouri offensive coordinator Derek Dooley is a familiar name to Georgia fans as the son of Hall of Fame former coach and athletic director Vince Dooley, who took the Bulldogs to the 1980 national championship. Derek Dooley, the former Tennessee coach and Dallas Cowboys assistant, also shares coaching roots with Smart after working together at Miami and LSU.

''I have a lot of respect for his dad, and Derek and I have always been good friends,'' Smart said.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2018, 02:37 PM

FIU has plenty of Miami backers
September 20, 2018
By The Associated Press

MIAMI (AP) Among those who will attend the Miami-FIU game this weekend will be the coach who built the last Hurricanes team that won a national championship, the recruiting director for that team, the quarterback from that season and the person in charge of their strength and conditioning program at that time.

They'll all be in FIU colors.

There is much more than that brawl 12 years ago that links Miami and FIU, a pair of schools that are only eight miles apart. And there's no shortage of people in FIU's athletic department with deep Miami ties, which adds another layer of intrigue to Saturday's matchup between the 21st-ranked Hurricanes (2-1) and the Panthers (2-1).

''It's definitely a different deal,'' said Ken Dorsey, the national-title-winning quarterback for Miami in 2001 who was hired by FIU earlier this year as an assistant athletic director. ''But I'm really excited about where I'm at and this is going to be a lot of fun. That's the fun part about football - these crazy things happen.''

There are some obvious differences between the University of Miami and Florida International University - Miami is private, FIU is public; Miami is the established brand, FIU is building toward that; Miami admits about one-third of its applicants and keeps classes small, FIU has one of the largest enrollments in the U.S.

In sports, there isn't much to compare. Miami has five national titles. FIU has one bowl victory.

But the Panthers are trying to build, which is why executive director of sports and entertainment Pete Garcia brought in Butch Davis as FIU's coach before the 2017 season. Davis coached at Miami from 1995 through 2000, building the team that Dorsey would lead to the national title in 2001. And Garcia was Davis' recruiting coordinator at Miami in those days.

''I root for Miami, every game in every sport,'' said Garcia, who has overseen FIU athletics since 2006. ''Unless they're playing FIU.''

The majority of players on the field Saturday will know each other - roughly 100 of the players on the teams' rosters hail from South Florida.

Most of the people in the stands on both sides might be neighbors as well. And besides Davis, Dorsey and Garcia, there's plenty of other FIU employees who know how to put their hands together and make Miami's ''U'' signal.

Kevin O'Neill, FIU's head football athletic trainer, had a similar job at Miami three decades ago and has a national-title ring from his time with the Hurricanes. So does strength coach Andreu Swasey, who helped send dozens of Hurricanes to the NFL before signing on with the Panthers.

FIU assistant coaches Aubrey Hill, Tim Harris Jr. and Kenny Holmes have deep Miami ties; Hill coached there, Harris Jr. was a track star for the Hurricanes, and Holmes was a defensive-line star who was an NFL first-round draft pick. Even the radio announcers who will call the game for FIU this weekend - AJ Ricketts and Kenny Kelly - are former Hurricane athletes.

Miami also has some former FIU administrators on its staff now, too.

''It's a great situation to put the two programs in and I think it's a lot of fun for everybody,'' Dorsey said.

The brawl in 2006 led to a quick end of the series that, ironically, Garcia got by negotiating on Miami's behalf at the time with then-FIU athletic director Rick Mello. The teams completed their contract by playing in 2007, but haven't met in football since.

But over the next few years, Miami vs. FIU may become a regular thing. They'll play again on Nov. 23, 2019 at either Marlins Park or Hard Rock Stadium - it'll be classified as an FIU home game either way. Plus, Garcia and Miami athletic director Blake James have talked about getting an additional two-year deal done when this one is completed.

''There's a lot of pride,'' Richt said. ''A lot of pride in the city, a lot of pride at the parks where these kids grew up and play football at. Not only do the kids know each other, but the parents know each other. Everybody knows everybody.''

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2018, 02:39 PM

Total Talk - Week 4
September 20, 2018
By BetDSI

CFB Week 4 Total Talk

The two games I isolated last week that had significant moves on the total ended up splitting the board if you followed the steam. The Ohio/Virginia game that saw plenty of 'over' money all week with the massive move, easily cashed that 'over' play by the time the two teams went in for halftime (38-21 at half), while the Oregon State/Nevada game had to have those bettors that took 'under' 71.5 right away pulling their hair out as the game landed on 72 points.

My best bet for the week didn't fare that well either as Nebraska looks like a team just searching for an identity right now in the early stages of Scott Frost's tenure. The Cornhuskers lost SU as a double-digit favorite and that's never the best outcome for an 'over' play. Troy's offense did their part by putting up 24 points, and if you give Nebraska the “suggested” points for the -10 to -11 spread they closed at – 34 or 35 in this case – this result would have been different.

Hopefully I will be able to turn it around with this week's play, but for now, let's get right to some of the week's bigger movers.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Over'

Notre Dame vs Wake Forest: Open: 57.5 – Current: 60

Notre Dame games are always some of the more popular games to bet during any CFB weekend, and as the Irish have gotten off to a 3-0 SU start, excitement around the program has only grown. However, for an Irish team that's failed to allow more than 17 points against in any game this year and is 0-3 O/U to date in 2018, this move upwards in the total has to be a bit puzzling for some.

Yet, although the Irish haven't allowed more than 17 in a game and haven't scored more than 24 themselves, this move upwards seems to be more about Wake Forest and their skills as opposed to Notre Dame. After all, Wake Forest is on a 4-0 O/U run off a SU loss and a 7-3 O/U run overall.

Wake is a team that prefers to play fast and get as many possessions as they can. The Demon Deacons are also coming off a Thursday national showcase game where they allowed 41 points to a Boston College team that is a run-first, methodical offense and that clearly opened the eyes of some. Wake kept it close for their part in scoring 34 points themselves, but with that being the lasting image for many of this Wake team this year, it's hard for most not to think Notre Dame's streak of putting up 24 or less points will be easily snapped this week.

That very well could happen as Notre Dame's offense dominated this game a year ago at home in scoring 48 points. I'm not sure we see the Irish get that high here, but Wake wasn't intimidated at all by the Irish's defense either in scoring 37 points themselves. Recent history between the two like that will always have many leaning towards the high side of the total, especially when you've got to figure Notre Dame's 0-3 O/U run this year should get snapped sooner rather than later.

But I'm not sure I want any piece of this 'over' at a flat 60 as that's starting to seem quite high for a Notre Dame team that has performed the way they have on both sides of the ball. The Irish are on an 0-4 O/U run on the road (this is their first road game of 2018), 0-7 O/U overall, and 12-26 O/U in their last 38 games against ACC opponents.

The last thing the Irish want here as TD road favorites is to get into a shootout again with Wake and let them gain more confidence as the game goes on. Last year's shootout wasn't as worrisome for the Irish because it was on their turf, but road favorites always want to make sure that their defense gets off the plane first and smothers any sort of kindling in regards to the home team thinking they've got a shot. I expect Notre Dame to attack with that defense-first gameplan here to get Wake's offense out of sync and take the home crowd out of it at the same time.

That's the most likely path to success for Notre Dame in this game, so this is a move I'd be looking to go against.

Odds per -BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Under'

Navy vs SMU: Open: 66 – Current: 62.5

Games featuring service academies tend to see early moves on the totals go low simply because the style of play those schools (Navy, Army, Air Force) use isn't conducive to high-scoring football. Triple Option attacks are meant to bleed away the clock with consistent 3.5 yard running plays to move the chains consistently and keep the opposing offenses off the field for as long as possible. Obviously there is plenty of potential for a boatload of big running plays to help 'overs' in some cases – it's not like all the service academy games go 'under' – but it's tough for teams to rack up enough possessions in a game against a service academy to even have enough opportunities to put up enough points.

Yet, that hasn't exactly been the case the last three years since Navy and SMU started up this rivalry as Navy is 3-0 SU and ATS with all three games easily going 'over' the number. Navy has scored 55, 75, and 43 points in those three contests which makes this 'move' a little surprising on the surface as well.

But 2018 appears like it might be a tougher year for both programs, especially in SMU's case. The Mustangs are 0-3 SU so far and have failed to put up more than 23 points in a single game this year. Considering Navy's defense has bounced back well with a pair of 21 point performances after getting gashed by Hawaii in the opener, SMU's offense may be lucky to even sniff 20 points this week. That leaves Navy to do all the heavy lifting again, and that's a big reason why this total has moved the way it has.

However, at the current number, I'm not so sure all the value is now gone in this 'under' play. SMU has allowed at least 40 points in all three of their defeats this year, and Navy has topped 40+ in two of their three wins. Considering Navy's lowest point total in this matchup the last three years is 43 points, they reach that number here and SMU does get to 20 or more, all of a sudden we've got 63 points and the steam chasers on this 'under' play are left shaking their heads. We will see what happens in the end, but unless this total comes back up prior to kickoff, I wouldn't be overly excited about an 'under' play on this game now.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Total Bet for Week 4: Texas A&M/Alabama Under 61

This is arguably the marquee game on the college board this week and from what we've seen from Alabama so far this year, it seems like they can seemingly pick the score they want to win by. They are laying nearly four TD's against A&M this week thanks to the 62-7 beating they put on Ole Miss a week ago.

But that result reminds me of last year at this time when Alabama hosted Ole Miss in late September, won that game 66-3 and then followed that up with a contest against Texas A&M the next week. The score in that later game was 27-19 in favor of Alabama, easily cashing an 'under' ticket in the process and this year feels awfully similar.

There is no denying that Nick Saban's tenure as the head man at Alabama will go down in history as one of the most historic runs ever in this sport, but he's never really done it with a spectacular offense and routinely hanging 60+ on teams. In fact, in Saban's entire career at Alabama, his teams are 0-3 O/U in the following game after scoring 60+. That trend might only be a three-game sample size, but it's also 11 years old (Saban started in 2007 with the Crimson Tide), so it's not something I particularly want to step in front of. And when you consider that this line has seen nothing but 'over' money this week according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentages and the number hasn't really moved at all, alarms about playing the 'over' should go off. Every week in this piece I talk about how much movement there is in CFB totals and when there really isn't much of one and one side has overwhelming action, it's always a good idea to take a step back and look at the big picture.

I'm expecting this game to go low, as the Aggies defense will have some surprises for Alabama's offense as well. Texas A&M has a defense that knows they can handle the top teams in this country after already battling Clemson a few weeks ago, and with the Aggies on a 4-10 O/U run after an ATS win and 2-5 O/U in their last seven SEC games, this contest shouldn't have more than 57 or so points scored.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2018, 02:40 PM

Stanford at Oregon
September 20, 2018
By Brian Edwards

Matchup: No. 7 Stanford at No. 20 Oregon
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
TV/Time: ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET

Two unbeaten Pac-12 North contenders are poised to collide Saturday night at Autzen Stadium in Eugene on ABC at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. As of Thursday morning, most books had Stanford (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) installed as a two-point favorite at Oregon. The total was 56 points, while the Ducks were +110 on the money line (risk $100 to win $110).

David Shaw’s team has won four of the past six head-to-head meetings with the Ducks, including back-to-back wins by a combined score of 101-34. The Cardinal destroyed Oregon by a 49-7 count as a 10-point home ‘chalk’ on ‘The Farm’ last year, and they won 52-27 at this venue in 2016.

We should note that Oregon faced Stanford without star QB Justin Herbert last year. The result was 33 passing yards without a TD throw and two interceptions. Stanford QB Keller Chryst, who is now a back-up at Tennessee as a grad transfer, threw three TD passes vs. the Ducks. K.J. Costello, who is now Stanford’s starter under center, completed 5-of-6 throws for 59 yards and one TD without an interception.

Bryce Love, the eventual Heisman Trophy runner-up who produced 2,118 yards and 19 TDs in 2017, rushed 17 times for 147 yards and two TDs in the blowout victory. WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside had six receptions for 112 yards and two TDs.

Shaw’s team got off to a slow start in its season opener vs. San Diego State. However, Stanford outscored the Aztecs 22-3 in the second half en route to a 31-10 victory as a 14-point home ‘chalk.’ The 41 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 49-point total. Costello hit on 21-of-31 passes for 332 yards and four TDs with one interception.

Rocky Long’s defense keyed on Love and limited him to merely 29 rushing yards on 18 carries. Arcega-Whiteside enjoyed a stellar performance, hauling in six receptions for 226 yard and three TDs.

Stanford faced USC in double-revenge mode on Sept. 8. The Trojans ran the Cardinal out of The Coliseum in a 42-24 home win last September, and then they captured a 31-28 victory over Shaw’s club in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Stanford would get even, though, with a 17-3 triumph as a five-point home favorite.

Love rushed for 136 yards and one TD on 22 totes against the Trojans, who threw two costly interceptions while Stanford played turnover-free football. Costello threw for 183 yards and one TD without being intercepted. TE Kaden Smith, a second-team All-American in most preseason publications who garnered first-team All-Pac-12 honors as a redshirt freshman in 2017, had four catches for 77 yards.

Stanford rested Love last week in a 30-10 non-covering home win over UC Davis as a 31-point favorite. The Aggies led 3-0 at the end of the first quarter, but the Cardinal scored 30 unanswered points until UC Davis scored on a 26-yard TD pass on the games final play.

Costello threw for 214 yards and two TDs, but he was intercepted twice. After posting a 14/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in seven starts in ’17, Costello has a 7/3 TD-INT ratio through three games. He’s completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 729 yards. Smith had six receptions for 68 yards vs. UC Davis, while Arcega-Whiteside had three catches for 36 yards and two TDs. Trevor Speights had 87 rushing yards on 11 carries.

Arcega-Whiteside has 13 receptions for 324 yards. The junior WR is tied for third in the nation with five TD catches. Smith has caught 12 balls for 163 yards, while Trenton Irwin has 13 catches for 90 yards.

With many teams playing softer schedules against non-conference competition in early September, I don’t put too much stock into national team stats until we get about five games deep into the season. Nevertheless, we’d be remiss to not point out how Stanford is tops in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 7.7 points per game to date. The Cardinal is ranked 23rd in the nation in both total defense and at defending the run.

Senior LB Sean Barton has a team-best 21 tackles, one sack and one QB hurry, while senior CB Alameen Murphy has recorded 19 tackles and one interception for a 32-yard return. Senior LB Joey Alfieri has produced 18 tackles, 2.5 sacks, two tackles for loss, three QB hurries, one forced fumble and one pass broken up.

Oregon (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS) has posted home wins over Bowling Green (58-24), Portland State (62-14) and San Jose State (35-22), so this conference opener is a big step up in class. The Ducks failed to cover the spreads that were -34.5, -50 and -42.5, respectively.

Mario Cristobal is Oregon’s new head coach, replacing Willie Taggart after he left to take his dream jog at FSU following just one season in Eugene. The Ducks went 7-6 SU and 6-7 ATS last year under Taggart, but they went 6-1 in Herbert’s seven regular-season starts. An injury forced him to miss five games and Oregon lost four of those contests.

The 47-year-old Cristobal was a starting offensive tackle at Miami on a pair of national-championship teams in 1989 and ’91. After serving as an assistant coach at UM for six seasons and spending three years on staff at Rutgers, Cristobal became head coach at Florida International in 2007.

He inherited an FIU program that was winless in ’06, but he led the school to back-to-back bowl appearances in 2010 and ’11. However, after a 3-9 record in ’12, Cristobal was fired. After initially rejoining the staff at his alma mater in Coral Gables, Nick Saban hired him to be Alabama’s recruiting coordinator.

During his four seasons in Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide finished No. 1 nationally in recruiting each year. Cristobal left Alabama in January of 2017 to join Taggart’s staff at Oregon and was then given the HC gig when Taggart bolted for Tallahassee.

Cristobal inherited a squad that brought back seven starters apiece on offense and defense (14 total). If we count the 38-28 loss to Boise State as a seven-point underdog in last year’s Las Vegas Bowl, Cristobal is 0-4 ATS since taking over the Ducks.

Herbert had a 34/9 career TD-INT ratio in 15 starts as a freshman and sophomore. He’s completed 46-of-81 passes (56.8%) for 840 yards with a 12/4 TD-INT ratio this season. Herbert, who had five rushing TDs in ’17, has 41 rushing yards and one TD through three games.

Seven different targets have caught at least four balls. Johnny Johnson, who started 10 games at WR as a true freshman last season, has six receptions for 134 yards and four TDs. Jaylon Redd has five catches for 117 yards, while Dillon Mitchell has six grabs for 98 yards and one TD.

Oregon is three-deep at the RB position led by RS freshman C.J. Verdell, who has 199 rushing yards for one TD with a 5.1 YPC average. Tony Brooks-James has run for 173 yards and two TDs while averaging 4.8 YPC, and Travis Dye has 122 rushing yards and one TD for a 6.4 YPC average.

Oregon is eighth in the nation in scoring with its 51.7 PPG average. The Ducks are ranked 10th in run defense, but they certainly haven’t faced anyone of the caliber of Love yet.

Stanford senior LB Casey Toohill is ‘out’ for the next 3-4 weeks after sustaining an arm injury in last week’s win over UC Davis. Toohill had contributed 14 tackles, three QB hurries, two passes broken up and one sack already.

Oregon starting junior WR Brenden Schooler is listed as ‘questionable’ after suffering a concussion vs. San Jose State. Schooler, who had 20 receptions for 274 yards and three TDs in ’17, has four catches for 30 yards this year.

After the 82 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 69.5-point total in its opener vs. Bowling Green, the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games for Oregon. This is the Ducks’ first game as home underdog on Cristobal’s watch. They’re 3-3 ATS in six such spots over the past decade, including a 1-1 mark both SU and ATS in ’17.

As a road favorite during Shaw’s eight-year tenure, Stanford owns a 17-12 spread record in 29 games as a road ‘chalk.’ The Cardinal went 8-1 ATS in its first nine such situation in ’11 and ’12, but it’s just 9-11 ATS as a road favorite since, including a 0-3 ATS ledger last year.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Tony Miller, the Sports Book Director at The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas, posted lines for Alabama against potential CFP opponents on Wednesday. Miller put up spreads for Alabama vs. four different teams. If these matchups don’t materialize, bettors buying tickets for these potential games will be given refunds. Miller installed Nick Saban’s team as a 9.5-point favorite vs. Ohio State, a 10.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. Georgia, an 11.5-point favorite against Clemson and a 14.5-point favorite vs. Oklahoma. We’ll assume that tickets bought for Alabama vs. Georgia will apply to the SEC Championship Game if they collide there rather than in the CFP.

-- In Alabama’s first three games, gamblers backing the Tide in its game, the first half and the first quarter have cashed each of those tickets. Furthermore, there’s a perfect record for wagering on the Tide’s team total ‘over’ for the game, first half and first quarter.

-- Eastern Michigan is an 11.5-point underdog at San Diego State for a 10:30 p.m. Eastern kick on the CBS Sports College Network. The Aztecs, who are off a 28-21 upset win over previously-unbeaten Arizona State as five-point home underdogs, are 18-23 ATS as home favorites during Rocky Long’s eight-year tenure. They’ll be without starting QB Christian Chapman and senior DT Noble Hall, who has a wrist injury. Hall had 39 tackles, five TFL’s, 3.5 sacks and four QB hurries in ’17. In addition, San Diego State sophomore safety Tariq Thompson can't play in the first half due to a targeting infraction in the second half of the win over ASU. Thompson started all 13 games as a freshman and garnered second-team All-MWC honors by producing 63 tackles, five interception, four PBU, three QB hurries and three TFL’s. Eastern Michigan (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) is in a tough spot here venturing out West for what is its third road assignment in three weeks. The Eagles won 20-19 at Purdue as 15-point underdogs two weeks ago before losing a 35-28 decision at undefeated Buffalo as three-point ‘dogs last week. Chris Creighton’s team is 12-2 ATS in its past 14 games as a road ‘dog.

-- Even though Hawaii lost for the first time in a brutal travel spot at Army last week, the Warriors were deep in the red zone in attempt to force overtime when a fourth-down play came up short. Nevertheless, QB Cole McDonald still leads the nation in passing yards with 1,486 (granted, he has an extra game under his belt compared to most of the nation’s other QBs), and he has 15 TD passes without an interception. McDonald also has 144 rushing yards and two TDs. Hawaii returns home to face FCS foe Duquesne this week.

-- Boston College and Utah State are the country’s only two teams who are 3-0 ATS and have seen the ‘over’ hit in each of its outings. Meanwhile, Ga. Southern and Vanderbilt are the nation’s only squads who are 3-0 ATS and have watched the ‘under’ cash at a 3-0 clip.

-- UConn is 0-3 ATS with the ‘over’ hitting in all three of its games. Ohio, which had an open date in Week 2, and Nebraska, which saw its opener vs. Akron get postponed, are both 0-2 ATS. The Bobcats have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0, while the ‘under’ has been a winner in both contests for the Cornhuskers.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2018, 02:46 PM

Big Ten Report - Week 4
September 20, 2018
By ASA

2018 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 2-1 0-0 2-1 0-3
Indiana 3-0 0-0 1-2 1-2
Iowa 3-0 0-0 2-0 1-2
Maryland 2-1 0-0 2-1 1-2
Michigan 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-2
Michigan State 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Minnesota 3-0 0-0 3-0 1-2
Nebraska 0-2 0-0 0-2 0-2
Northwestern 1-2 1-0 1-2 2-1
Ohio State 3-0 1-0 2-1 2-1
Penn State 3-0 0-0 2-1 3-0
Purdue 0-3 0-1 1-2 2-1
Rutgers 1-2 0-1 1-2 1-2
Wisconsin 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-2

Friday, Sept. 21

Penn State (-28) at Illinois - (FS1, 9:00 p.m. ET)

PENN STATE - The Big Ten slate kicks off this week with a rare Friday night game in Champaign. Penn State comes in with a perfect 3-0 record and faces off against the Illini who are 2-1. The PSU offense is clicking early in the season having scored at least 45 points in each of their three wins. Last week they topped Kent State 63-10 on 643 yards averaging over 9 yards per play! On the season the Nittany Lions are averaging 53 PPG on 6.88 YPP. PSU was able to run out to a huge 49-10 lead last week after three quarters which allowed head coach James Franklin to rest his starters for a good portion of the 2nd half. That could be a benefit here on a short week as Franklin had his team practice on Monday which is normally their only day off. After struggling with an Appalachian State team that pushed Penn State to overtime in their season opener, the Nits have covered their last two games (vs Pitt & Kent State) by a combined 55 points.

ILLINOIS - The Illini are coming off their first loss of the season last week as South Florida topped them 25-19 @ Soldier Field in Chicago. Illinois covered as a 14-point dog but the score was quite misleading. USF dominated the game outgaining Illinois by 246 yards. The Bulls averaged 7.45 YPP while holding the Illini to just 4.81 YPP for the game. Amazingly, Illinois actually led 19-7 entering the fourth quarter before USF scored 17 straight points, including a 50-yard TD pass with just over 2:00 minutes remaining which gave them their first and only lead of the game. South Florida threw two interceptions, were called for 14 penalties for 124 yards, and missed 3 FG’s which gave the Illini a shot despite the stat sheet disparity. Starting QB AJ Bush sat out last week for the Illini after an injury sustained a week earlier vs Western Illinois. His replacement was true freshman AJ Rivers who saw the first game action of his career. Rivers was 20 of 29 for 168 yards. Bush is questionable heading into Friday so it’s something we’ll keep an eye on.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two haven’t met since 2015 which was a PSU 39-0 win at home as a 3.5 point favorite. The underdog has cashed in 10 of the last 13 times these two have faced off. Illinois has covered 8 of the last 12 in this series dating back to 2002. Penn State is favored by 28 in this one which is the second largest point spread ever in this Big Ten series. Illinois has been a home underdog of four TD’s or more only FOUR times since 1980, three of those were vs Ohio State. Since joining the Big Ten in 1990, the Lions have been a road favorite of 28 or more just ONE time in Big Ten play. That was @ Iowa in 1999 which was a 31-7 PSU win but a non-cover as a 28-point favorite.

Games Scheduled for Saturday, Sept. 22

Nebraska at Michigan (-19.5) - (FS1, 12:00 p.m. ET)

NEBRASKA – Well the Scott Frost era in Lincoln has not started the way the Husker fans would have hoped. After losing a back and forth game at home to Colorado two weeks ago, the Huskers were upset 24-19 at home by Troy last week. So the Huskers have lost two games by a combined 10 points and outgained both opponents by a combined 280 yards in the process. Last week they outgained the Trojans by more than 100 yards but also had 3 turnovers, a missed field goal, and allowed Troy to score on a 58 yard punt return. Starting QB Martinez sat out with an injury and his back up, walk on Andrew Bunch, was actually Nebraska’s 4th string QB entering camp. However, once Martinez won the starting job their original back up transferred and another was ruled ineligible. That leaves Bunch as the default back up QB. He actually did OK throwing for 177 yards and 2 TD’s, however he doesn’t bring the running threat that Martinez does. Martinez has been practicing this week but is still considered a game time decisions. The Husker defense looks much improved to us. They were one of the worst in the nation last year and this year they rank 39th in YPG allowed and they are getting to the QB at a high rate. This team is better than most think.

MICHIGAN – The Wolverines won again at home last week dispatching a poor SMU team 45-20 but coming nowhere near covering as a 37-point favorite. The Mustangs had high hopes entering the season but they are 0-3 getting beat by 23, 30, and 25 points. The Wolverine offense started very slow in their win last week not getting on the board until 6:46 remaining in the half with a 1 yard TD run on 4th down. SMU came right back and tied the game at 7-7 with just under 3:00 minutes remaining in the half. However, Michigan tacked in 2 TD’s in the final 2:30 and led 21-7 at half including a 73-yard interception return as the first half ended which was the back breaker for SMU. The Wolves didn’t dominate quite as much as the final might indicated. This was just a 2 score game with 8:30 remaining in the game and Michigan didn’t really put away a much weaker opponent until late in the game. The Wolverines relied heavily on the run in the win with 41 rushing attempts and only 14 pass completions. The defense looked very good again holding SMU to just 4.9 YPP.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two have not met this the 2013 season. Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011, they are 2-1 SU & ATS vs the Wolverines. Michigan is 11-5 ATS the last 15 times they’ve been a favorite of 14 or more in Big Ten play dating back to 2011. Since joining the Big Ten in 2011, the Huskers have been a conference underdog of 17 or more just 3 times, twice vs OSU and once vs PSU (1-2 both SU & ATS in those games)

Minnesota at Maryland (-3) - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m .ET)

MINNESOTA – The Gophers will leave the comforts of home for the first time this season as they travel to Maryland on Saturday. Minnesota is 3-0 both SU and ATS with wins over New Mexico State, Fresno State, and Miami (Oh). Last year the Gophs were in a similar spot sweeping their non-conference slate only to lose 5 of their first 6 Big Ten games. Last week’s 26-3 win over Miami (Oh) was one where both offenses struggled. Minnesota had just 295 total yards on 70 offensive snaps (Just 4.2 YPP) while the Redhawks didn’t even get to 200 total yards for the game. That has been a theme for Minnesota as they’ve struggled to move the ball each of the last two weeks after putting up big numbers in their opener vs New Mexico State, who ranks 112th in total defense. They are already without their top offensive player, RB Rodney Smith, who was injured a few weeks ago and is out indefinitely. Now starting QB Zack Annexstad is questionable for this game with an injured ankle.

MARYLAND – The Terps, who may have been the surprise of the Big Ten through the first two weeks, came crashing back down to earth last week. Maryland beat Texas in week 1 as a double digit underdog and followed that up with an easy win and cover @ Bowling Green. It looked like the Terps would enter their Big Ten slate with a perfect 3-0 record as they faced a Temple team that came into last week with an 0-2 record. Well it didn’t go as planned as the Terps (-15) were dominated by the Owls 35-14 and outgained by 234 yards! The Temple defense stacked the line of scrimmage and forced Maryland QB’s Kasim Hill and Tyrell Pigrome to beat them through the air. Not a bad strategy vs a Terp team that was averaging almost 300 YPG on the ground coming in. The Maryland QB’s threw for just 63 yards on only 8 completions the entire game. On top of that Temple’s defense held the Maryland running game to only 132 yards so look for other teams to employ this defensive strategy moving forward until the Terps prove they can throw the ball consistently.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two have met twice since Maryland joined the Big Ten with the road team winning both games outright as underdogs. The most recent meeting was last season when the Terps came to Minnesota as a 13.5 point underdog and walked away with a 31-24 win. The Gophers have now lost 6 straight Big Ten road games dating back to the 2016 season. Since they joined the Big Ten in 2014, the Terps have been a home favorite in conference play only 5 times (3-2 SU & ATS).

Boston College at Purdue (-6.5) - (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

BOSTON COLLEGE – The Eagles have had some extra time to get ready for this game after beating Wake Forest on the road last Thursday night 41-34. The Wake defense stacked the line of scrimmage in an attempt to stop RB AJ Dillon and make someone else beat them. The problem is, Dillon still ran for 185 yards on 33 carries and because of Wake committing to stopping the run QB Anthony Brown also had a huge day completing 16 passes for 304 yards (19 yards per completion) and 5 TD’s. Big plays were obviously the team of the BC passing game last week as Brown completed TD passes of 27, 35, 29, 71, and 40 yards. The total yardage in the game was very close with both teams putting up over 500 yards. However, BC had a huge edge in yards per play as they run just 69 offense plays to Wake’s 105! The Eagles enter their game vs Purdue with a 3-0 record and they are now ranked in the top 25 for the first time in a decade.

PURDUE – The Boilers struggles continued last week as they fell in a down to the wire game for the third straight week. Mizzou was able to knock off Purdue 40-37 last week in West Lafayette. So the Boilers are now 0-3 losing their games by a combined 9 points despite outgaining all 3 of their opponents. Last Saturday was an offensive showdown vs Missouri as neither defense could slow down their opponent. Both teams had over 600 yards of total offense and the two teams combined for only four punts the entire game. Purdue came from 10 points down in the 4th quarter to tie the game late only to watch Missouri kick a FG at the buzzer to win by 3. It was the second straight weekend that Purdue lost on a field goal as time expired. We could be in for another high scoring affair this week as BC comes in averaging 52 PPG and this total is set at 68 as of this writing. After getting to a bowl game last year for the first time since 2012, this has now become a must win if they want to have a chance at the post season again this year. In order to keep those hopes alive and get a win this weekend, Purdue would have to beat a top 25 team for the first time since 2011.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – This is the first meeting between these two teams. Purdue covered last week as a home dog but that has been a rarity as of late. In fact entering this season, the Boilers had been a home dog 25 times since late November of 2011. They were just 4-21 ATS in those 25 match ups. If you’re looking for Purdue to possibly pull off an upset here, don’t count on it. They are just 1-25 SU the last 26 times they’ve been a home underdog.

Buffalo (-5.5) at Rutgers - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

BUFFALO – The Bulls came into the season as one of the favorites to win the MAC and they haven’t disappointed with a perfect 3-0 mark. After cruising past Delaware State in their opener, Buffalo has gone to the wire in each of their last two games beating Temple by a TD and Eastern Michigan by a TD. They are led on offense by QB Tyree Jackson who is completing 65% of his passes and already had 12 TD passes on the season. Defensively the Bulls are allowing 422 YPG and 28.5 PPG in their two games vs FBS opponents this season.

RUTGERS – Oh Rutgers. After beating Texas State to kick off the 2018 season, the Scarlet Knights have lost their last two games by a combined score of 107-17! Getting whipped by Ohio State is one thing but losing last week 55-14 to Kansas is a whole different situation. The Jayhawks came into their game vs Rutgers having won only 4 of their previous 42 games. How bad was Rutgers defense? They allowed a bad Kansas offense to gain 544 total yards and score 50+ points for the first time since 2010. Three of the first four touchdowns in this game were scored by either the defense or special teams including two KU interception returns for TD and a Rutgers blocked punt for a TD. This one wasn’t a fluke either as Kansas dominated the game from the get go as the Jayhawks were +8 first downs, +270 in total yardage, and +10:00 minutes time of possession. Starting freshman QB Arthur Sitkowski threw 3 interceptions before being replaced by senior captain and backup QB Giovanni Rescigno. No word yet on who will start under center this weekend vs Buffalo.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Buffalo is 1-11 SU vs Big Ten teams since the start of the 1999 season. The Bulls have never been favored over a Big Ten team until now. Dating all the way back to 1980, Rutgers is just 45-59 ATS as a home underdog (43%).

Tulane at Ohio State (-37) - (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

TULANE – Tulane enters Columbus with a 1-2 record losing to Wake Forest in OT & UAB with their only win coming against Nicholls State. In their two FBS games, both losses, the Green Wave have been outgained by 206 combined yards. The defense has been on the field a lot as they have faced 248 snaps in just 3 games for an average of 83 per game. For comparison’s sake the Tulane offense has taken 202 snaps on the year for an average of 67 per game. Last week the Green Wave traveled to Birmingham AL to take on UAB as a road favorite of 3.5 points. The Blazers jumped out to a 14-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter and Tulane battled back to tie the game at 24-24 in the fourth quarter. UAB took a 31-24 lead with just under 3:00 minutes remaining but the Green Wave had two more possessions following that score and both ended in Blazer territory, one on a fumble and one with time expiring. Tulane’s defense allowed 449 yards to UAB which has to be a bit concerning entering game game vs the high octane OSU offense.

OHIO STATE – The Buckeyes had their first real test of the season last week when they traveled to Dallas to take on a very good TCU team. The Horned Frogs looked like they were in very good shape to potentially pull the upset when their TD with 10:43 to go in the 3rd quarter put them up 21-13. After getting down by 8, OSU rolled up 3 consecutive TD’s in the span of 7:30 minutes to turn a 21-13 deficit into a 33-21 lead with 3:00 still remaining in the third quarter. That sequence proved to be the difference as the Bucks went on to win 40-28 barely failing to cover the 13-point spread. The overall yardage and YPP stats were almost dead even for the game. Despite that the Buckeyes were able to pick up the double digit win with help from a fumble recovery for a TD, an interception for a TD, and a blocked punt that was turned into a TD just two plays later. OSU head coach Urban Meyer will be back on the sidelines this week after serving his 3 game suspension but he will be without All-American defensive end Nick Bosa who has been ruled out with an groin/abdominal injury sustained during last week’s game.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – This is the first meeting between these two teams on the gridiron. Since 2012 OSU has been a favorite of 35 or more 10 teams. As expected they are 10-0 SU in those games but just 3-7 ATS. In this history of Tulane’s football program, they have been an underdog of 35 or more only 5 times. They are 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS losing by an average score of 47-7.

Michigan State (-5) at Indiana - (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m. ET)

MICHIGAN STATE – The Spartans have had two full weeks to get ready for their Big Ten opener as they come off a bye week. They are also very anxious to get back on the field after losing @ Arizona State two weeks ago. Sparty blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead in that one as ASU came from behind late for the 16-13 win. That dropped Michigan State to 1-1 on the season, their one win a hard fought 38-31 final at home vs a solid and experienced Utah State team. It may not have been a bad close win for MSU as Utah State has gone onto win 60-13 and 73-12 since the loss (vs New Mexico State & Tennessee Tech). The Spartans have struggled to run the ball in their first two games averaging only 114 YPG on the ground. Their top RB LJ Scott may not play here due to an injury which won’t help. QB Brian Lewerke has been solid completing 69% of his attempts for 601 yards in two games

INDIANA – The Hoosiers enter their Big Ten opener with a 3-0 record for just the second time in a decade. Their wins have come over FIU, Virginia, and Ball State. After allowing 28 points in their season opener @ FIU (38-28 win), the Indiana defense has been fantastic the last two weeks allowing just 26 combined points to Virginia and Ball State. Last week they whipped Ball State 38-10 a week after the Cardinals took Notre Dame to the wire in a 24-16 loss. The offense has exactly 38 points in two of their three wins and they have done so with a balanced attack averaging 235 yards on the ground and 201 through the air. Starting QB Peyton Ramsey was solid (20 of 29 for 173 yards) and because of the blowout he only played the first half and one series into the 3rd quarter before future starter freshman Michael Penix Jr took over.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – MSU has dominated this series covering 11 of the last 14 meetings and 22 of the 33 meetings since 1980. The Spartans have also won 12 of the last 14 outright vs the Hoosiers. IU is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they’ve been a home underdog. They also rarely pull an upset as a home dog as they are only 2-24 SU their last 26 times getting points at home. Last year’s meeting in East Lansing was a tight one as MSU trailed 9-3 with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Spartans (-6.5) scored two TD’s late and pulled out a 17-9 win at home.

Wisconsin (-3) at Iowa - (FOX, 8:30 p.m. ET)

WISCONSIN – The Badgers threw up a clunker last week in their 24-21 loss at home to BYU. That dropped them to 2-1 on the season but they still have yet to cover the spread (0-3 ATS). If you simply took a look at the stat sheet, you’d most likely think Wisconsin won the game fairly easily. The yardage was 394 to 311, first downs 20 to 14, total offensive snaps 71 to 51 and time of possession 34:00 to 26:00 all in favor of UW. Despite their 120 yards passing, starting QB Tanner Mangum only threw for 89 yards. The other 31 yards threw the air came on a trick play with a WR completing a pass for a TD. Down 24-21 with around 4:00 minutes remaining the Badgers took over on offense and drove the ball 69 yards on 11 plays but were stopped on 3rd down inside the BYU 25-yard line. Senior kicker Rafael Gaglianone, who is one of the top kickers in UW history, missed a 42 yarder that would have sent the game to OT. One key injury for Wisconsin is OLB Andrew Van Ginkle. He is their top edge rusher and is questionable vs Iowa with a leg injury.

IOWA – The Hawkeyes moved to 3-0 with a home win last week over Northern Iowa. They dominated the FCS power (ranked 22nd in FCS poll despite their 0-2 record) leading 38-0 after 3 quarters en route to a 38-14 win. The Iowa defense was again dominant holding the Panthers to just 20 total yards in the first half and 228 for the game with much of that coming late. For the game, UNI rushed for just 6 yards on 21 attempts. The Hawks now rank 3rd nationally in rush defense allowing only 42 YPG on 1.54 YPC after their first 3 games. This week it will be strength on strength as Wisconsin brings in one of the top rushing offenses in the country (9th) so we’ll get a better idea of where both stand after this one. The offense looked much better this week after struggling to put up just 13 points vs Iowa State the previous Saturday. QB Nate Stanley, who had thrown for just a total of 274 yards in his first two games, broke out vs UNI with a big game. Stanley completed 23 of 28 for over 300 yards and 2 TD’s. Stanley is from Wisconsin so he may have a little extra incentive for this one after struggling last year in Iowa’s 38-14 loss in Madison.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Wisconsin has topped Iowa in this rivalry 5 of the last 6 years. Last year the Badgers dominated their way to a 38-14 win and Iowa’s only points came on two interceptions both returned for TD’s. The Hawkeyes are 15-7-2 ATS their last 24 games as a home underdog. They were home dogs twice last year vs PSU & OSU and covered both beating the Buckeyes outright 55-24. Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS their last 21 as a road favorite dating back to 2012.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2018, 02:52 PM

No. 23 Boston College tries to stay unbeaten at Purdue
September 20, 2018
By The Associated Press

No. 23 Boston College (3-0) at Purdue (0-3), noon ET (ESPN2).

Line: Boston College by 6+.

Series record: First meeting.

WHAT'S AT STAKE?

The Eagles returned to the Top 25 for the first time in a decade and need to keep winning if they're going to continue climbing. They haven't started 4-0 since 2007 and have only achieved the feat four times since 1955. Purdue, meanwhile, hasn't opened a season with four straight losses since going 0-5 in 1982 and needs some momentum before Big Ten play begins.

KEY MATCHUP

Boston College's high-scoring offense vs. Purdue's young defense. After scoring at least 40 points in each of their first three games, a first in Eagles' history, the Boilermakers' defense has struggled late in games. It had costly personal foul penalties late in each of the first two games and gave up decisive field goals on the final play each of the past two weeks.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Boston College: RB AJ Dillon. Since becoming a starter last October, Dillon's 168.8 yards rushing per game is the best mark among active FBS backs. His 1,688 yards are second to Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor.

Purdue: QB David Blough. With Elijah Sindelar missing last week's game with an undisclosed injury, Blough responded with a school-record 572 yards passing and a conference record 590 yards in total offense.

FACTS & FIGURES

Eagles QB Anthony Brown threw for a career-best 304 yards and five TDs against ACC foe Wake Forest last week. ... Purdue LB Cornel Jones, a sophomore, is second among all FBS players in tackles for loss (7.5). ... Boston College has two interceptions in each of its first three games. ... The Boilermakers' average per carry (7.1 yards) is tied for fifth in the nation. ... It's not the first time Eagles coach Steve Addazio has faced Purdue. He was an assistant at Indiana from 2002-04. ... Purdue is 7-6-1 all-time in the regular-season against ACC opponents and 6-3-1 against ACC teams at home.

****************************

BC's visit to Purdue headlines 4th week
September 20, 2018
By The Associated Press

Things to watch in the Atlantic Coast Conference in Week 4:

GAME OF THE WEEK

No. 23 Boston College at Purdue. The Eagles (3-0) have climbed into the national rankings for the first time in a decade behind league preseason player of the year AJ Dillon and a passing game that accounted for five long touchdown passes in a victory at Wake Forest. Could there be a letdown? Up next is one final nonconference test at desperate Purdue (0-3), which has three losses by a combined eight points yet still has the nation's No. 19 offense, averaging nearly 521 yards per game.

BEST MATCHUP

No. 3 Clemson's defensive line vs. Georgia Tech's option offense. The Tigers have an embarrassment of riches up front, with the entire defensive line selected to the preseason all-ACC team. Clemson (3-0) has allowed an average of 89 yards rushing, ranking 16th in the nation and second-best in the conference. Not surprisingly, Georgia Tech averages an ACC-best 392 yards on the ground with Paul Johnson's trademark triple-option offense.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

Wake Forest (2-1) has not allowed an opponent from the Bowl Subdivision to reach the red zone, keeping both Tulane and Boston College outside the 20-yard line. But a closer look at the numbers indicates trouble. The Demon Deacons needed overtime to beat Tulane and gave up 41 points in a home loss to BC. They allowed eight touchdowns of at least 27 yards in those two games, with BC quarterback Anthony Brown throwing five TD passes - including three from 40 or more yards out.

LONG SHOT

North Carolina State (2-0) might have its hands full as a 5-point favorite at Marshall. Both teams are coming off unexpected weekends off, with Hurricane Florence forcing cancellations of last week's games, so there's always the possibility of rust. The Thundering Herd can be tough to beat in Huntington, West Virginia, winning 83 percent of its home games - though only one of those victories has come against a power-conference team. And Marshall still has WR Tyre Brady, a Miami transfer who had 248 yards receiving against N.C. State last year and should test the Wolfpack's rebuilt defense.

IMPACT PLAYER

Look for Duke QB Quentin Harris to put up some big numbers against North Carolina Central of the FCS. Harris looked comfortable in his first career start last week at Baylor , throwing for three touchdowns and adding 83 yards rushing in a 40-27 road victory.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2018, 06:08 PM

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 21
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

FAU at UCF 07:00 PM
UCF -13.5
U 74.5

PSU at ILL 09:00 PM
PSU -27.0
U 61.0

WSU at USC 10:30 PM
WSU +4.5
O 51.0

***************************

college football best bets aug-sept.

Date w-l-t % units record (ALL PLAYS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS )

09/20/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/15/2018 35-26-1 57.38% +32.00
09/14/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/08/2018 31-37-2 45.59% -48.50
09/07/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/02/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/01/2018 30-22-0 57.69% +29.00
08/31/2018 4-8-0 33.33% -24.00
08/30/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
08/25/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

total..............115-102-0.......52.99%.....+14.00

best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

09/20/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50................0 - 1...............-5.50...............0 - 2.........-11.00
09/15/2018.............11 - 13..........-16.50...............7 - 6..............+2.00.............18 - 19.......-14.50
09/14/2018.............1 - 0.............+5.00................1 - 0..............+5.00..............2 - 0.........+10.00
09/13/2018.............1 - 0.............+5.00................0 - 1 ..........-5.50...............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/08/2018............13 - 14...........-12.00..............12 - 5.............+32.50............25 - 19......+20.50
09/07/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50................0 - 1...............-5.50...............0 - 2........-11.00
09/03/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50................1 - 0...............+5.00..............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/02/2018.............1 - 0..............+5.00...............1 - 0...............+5.00..............2 - 0........ +10.00
09/01/2018............13 - 6.............+32.00.............5 - 2...............+14.00............18 - 8.......+46.00
08/31/2018.............1 - 3..............-11.50..............2 - 4...............-12.00..............3 - 7.........-23.50
08/30/2018.............2 - 1..............+4.50...............2 -1...............+4.50...............4 - 2.........+9.00
08/25/2018.............2 - 0..............+10.00.............2 - 0..............+10.00..............4 - 0........+20.00

total.....................45 - 40............+4.50..............33 - 21...........+49.50..........78 - 61......+54.00

**Udog** · 09-21-2018, 11:35 PM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Saturday’s non-top 13 games
13) Akron is 16-11 as road underdogs under Terry Bowden; they upset Northwestern LW, as a 21-point dog. Iowa State is 5-1 in last six tries as home favorites; they played Oklahoma LW, play TCU next week, so a sandwich game here for them.

12) Under Doreen, NC State is 7-3 as road favorites; they beat Marshall 37-20 (-23) at home LY. Thundering Herd is 6-5 as home underdogs under Holliday; since 2011, they’re 19-8-1 as a single digit underdog.

11) Road team won both Minnesota-Maryland games last two years; Gophers are 2-5-2 in last nine games as road underdogs- they’re 9-5 in games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Terps are 3-6 in last nine games as a Big 14 home favorite.

10) North Carolina won its last five games vs Pitt, all by 7 or fewer points, with average total in those games of 54.6. Tar Heels are 1-6 in last seven games as home underdogs, 7-15-2 as an underdog of less than 10 points. Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 2-1 as road favorites.

9) Clemson won last visit to Georgia Tech 26-7 in ‘16, their first win in last six visits here; since ’14, Tigers are 7-12 as road favorites. Tech is 4-8 in last 12 tries as home underdogs; they’re 3-6-1 in last ten games as double digit underdogs.

8) Notre Dame won last four games with Wake Forest, last three by 11+ points; this is their first visit here since a 24-17 (-13) win in ’11. Since 2011, Irish are 7-12 as road favorites, 3-8 in last 11 tries as single digit favorites. Wake Forest is 8-4-1 in last 13 games as home underdogs.

7) Mississippi State won six of last seven games with Kentucky, but lost 40-38 (-4) in last visit here, in ’16. Bulldogs covered three of last four tries as road favorites. Under Stoops, Kentucky is 3-11-2 as home underdogs, 8-13-2 as a double digit underdog.

6) LSU upset Auburn next week, plays Ole Miss next, so sandwich game here vs Louisiana Tech team they haven’t met since ’09. Tech covered 10 of last 13 tries as road underdogs; they’re 6-6 as double digit dogs. LSU is 1-6 vs vs spread last seven times they laid 20+ points.

5) Kansas won its last two games after opening with loss to a I-AA team; since ’08, Jayhawks are 14-29-2 as road underdogs, 7-13 if getting single digit spread. Since 2015, Baylor is 5-9 as home favorites; they won last five series games, by average score of 54-10.

4) Air Force won its last three games vs Utah State, by 3-7-7 points; Flyboys covered eight of last ten games as road underdogs. Utah State is 5-9 in last 14 tries as home favorites; they’re 13-8 in last 21 games as double digit favorites.

3) Since 2013, Alabama is 13-6-1 as a home favorite in SEC games, 8-11-2 in last 20 games when laying 20+ points- they won last three games with Texas A&M, by average score of 34-19. Since 2013, Aggies are 5-8 as road underdogs- they covered four of last five when getting 20+ points.

2) Arizona State (+18) upset Washington 13-7 in the desert LY; they won four of last five games with the Huskies, losing 44-18 in last visit here. Since 2011, ASU is 7-12-2 as road underdogs. Under Petersen, Washington is 14-10 as home favorites; they’re 13-12 when laying 10+ points.

1) Eastern Michigan covered 11 of last 13 games as road underdogs; they upset Purdue already this year. Since 2015, San Diego State is 7-11 as home favorites. Last seven years, MW teams are 15-11 vs spread when playing a MAC opponent.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2018, 02:32 AM

Milton accounts for 6 TDs, No. 16 UCF routs FAU 56-36
September 21, 2018

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) With McKenzie Milton on top of his game, No. 16 UCF keeps rolling along.

The junior from Kapolei, Hawaii, ran for a career-best three touchdowns while throwing for three more, helping the Knights rally from a second-quarter deficit to remain unbeaten and extend the nation's longest winning streak with a 56-36 rout of Florida Atlantic on Friday night.

''When things got a little shaky,'' Milton said, ''we didn't flinch.''

The 2017 American Athletic Conference player of the year completed 21 of 32 passes for 306 yards without an interception. And the Knights (3-0), who trailed 17-14 late in the second quarter, won for the 16th straight time to set a record for consecutive victories by an AAC team.

''They're a good football team,'' Milton said. ''You're not always going to be able to break (the game) open right away.''

Milton scored on runs of 12, 9 and 13 yards, using a nifty jump cut to avoid a defender and get into the end zone on the last one.

Touchdown passes of 12 yards to Dredrick Snelson, 21 yards to Marlon Williams and 19 yards to Gabriel Davis hiked Milton's career total to 56 - tied with Blake Bortles for fourth-most in school history.

''Playing good teams, you're going to have to use the QB run as well,'' said Milton, who finished with a team-high 81 yards rushing on 13 attempts.

FAU (2-2) stayed close for a half, but ultimately couldn't keep pace with the prolific UCF offense. Devin Singletary rushed for 131 yards and three TDs for the Owls, who finished with 320 yards on the ground.

UCF led 21-17 at the half, letting a two-touchdown lead slip away and falling behind on a second-quarter field goal.

That's when Milton took over, moving the Knights 78 yards in just over a minute and connecting with Williams to put UCF ahead for good.

Chris Robison settled down after throwing an interception that led to UCF's first touchdown and fed the UCF defense a steady diet of Singletary. The Owls battled back by putting together a couple of time-consuming scoring drives that kept Milton off the field.

Singletary's first touchdown finished an 11-play, 71-yard march. The Owls also held the ball for six minutes, driving 54 yards to position Vladimir Rivas to kick a 32-yard field goal for a short-lived 17-14 lead.

Robison was intercepted three times and finished 13 of 26 passing for 124 yards, including a 23-yard TD throw to Kerrith Whyte late in the third quarter.

THE TAKEAWAY

Florida Atlantic: The Owls entered the season with hopes of working their way into the playoff conversation in December. Those aspirations were dashed by a 63-14 loss at Oklahoma, but Friday was an opportunity to knock UCF off course to be part of the debate

UCF: Milton finished eighth in Heisman Trophy voting last season, when he helped UCF go 13-0, including a victory over Auburn in the Peach Bowl. He went 4 of 4 for 74 yards on the Knights' go-ahead drive and then ran for a pair of scores in the third quarter to build the lead to 35-17.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

UCF moved up two spots in the Top 25 despite having an unscheduled bye week because of Hurricane Florence, which forced last week's game at North Carolina to be canceled. Beating FAU won't bolster the Knights' case for a higher ranking, but they could benefit if teams ahead of them stumble.

LIGHTING IT UP

UCF, which finished with 545 yards total offense, has scored 30-plus points in every game during its winning streak. Meanwhile, Milton has thrown for at least one touchdown in 17 straight games, dating to 2016.

Singletary has an impressive streak of his own for FAU, scoring a rushing touchdown in 17 consecutive games. The 5-foot-9, 200-pound junior scored five TDs against Bethune-Cookman and has nine in three games this season after scoring 32 a year ago.

UP NEXT

Florida Atlantic: Conference USA opener at Middle Tennessee next Saturday.

UCF: Hosts Pittsburgh next Saturday in its final nonconference game.

**************************

Sanders, McSorley lead No. 10 Penn State over Illinois 63-24
September 21, 2018

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (AP) Miles Sanders set career highs by rushing for 200 yards and three touchdowns, Trace McSorley threw for three TDs and ran for a personal-best 92 yards, and No. 10 Penn State scored 35 points in the fourth quarter to pull away for a 63-24 victory over Illinois on Friday night.

The Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) broke this one open after getting all they could handle from a team showing signs of a turnaround in coach Lovie Smith's third season.

They fell behind by three early in the third before Sanders scored on a 48-yard run and put away Illinois (2-2, 0-1) with two touchdowns in the opening minute of the fourth. It was Penn State's third straight game with more than 50 points.

''I don't think we've played a complete game,'' coach James Franklin said. ''I don't know if we've played many complete games since we've been here. I think we are getting better. There's certain plays, there's certain series, there's certain quarters that we're not happy. I've watched a little bit of the NFL. It seems it's the same way at that level.''

McSorley threw a 16-yard TD to Juwan Johnson on the first play of the quarter. Ian Johnson intercepted Illinois' M.J. Rivers, and McSorley hit KJ Hamler with a 21-yarder on the next play, making it 42-24.

Sanders easily surpassed his previous highs of 118 yards and two TDs. He had 113 yards and two scores in the first half alone.

McSorley showed why he is a Heisman Trophy hopeful, eclipsing his previous rushing high of 81 yards against Maryland in 2016. The senior also completed 12 of 19 passes for 160 yards with an interception.

Ricky Slade added a 61-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, and the Nittany Lions racked up 591 yards.

Rivers, a true freshman, was 17 of 28 for 149 yards, a touchdown and an interception in his second start with AJ Bush nursing a hamstring injury.

''I think we can all see what kind of a team we can be,'' Smith said. ''We have a lot of potential. Right now, we're playing with our backup quarterback. Hopefully with the bye week, AJ (Bush) will be ready to go.''

Reggie Corbin ran for 87 yards. Mike Epstein finished with 73 after back-to-back 100-yard rushing games.

Sanders broke a tackle and plowed through three defenders near the goal line for a 14-yard touchdown that gave Penn State a 7-0 lead.

Illinois tied it on a 2-yard run by Corbin. Then the Nittany Lions scored back-to-back touchdowns and looked ready to blow it open.

Sanders scored from the 2 after the Illini's Sydney Brown got flagged for interference on an overthrown pass intended for Hamler in the end zone. McSorley then threw a 5-yard TD to Pat Freiermuth, who skidded into the end zone as he lost his footing, to make it 21-7.

But a 51-yard run by Corbin set up a 6-yard touchdown pass from Rivers to Ricky Smalling, after the Illini's Daniel Barker fumbled a reception near the goal line, to make it a seven-point game midway through the second quarter.

Illinois' Delano Ware intercepted a deep pass by McSorley into double coverage with about 30 seconds left in the half when Penn State could have opted to run out the clock. That led to a 42-yard field goal by Chase McLaughlin as time expired, making it 21-17.

THE TAKEAWAY

Penn State: Though they didn't put this one away until the fourth, the Nittany Lions got another lopsided win after outscoring Pittsburgh and Kent State by a combined 114-16.

Illinois: Rivers is showing he could be a major contributor for the Illini even though Smith indicated Bush will return to the lineup once he's ready.

UP NEXT

Penn State: Hosts No. 4 Ohio State next Saturday.

Illinois: Visits Rutgers on Oct. 6.

************************

USC 39, WASHINGTON ST. 36

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2018, 02:40 AM

college football best bets aug-sept.

Date w-l-t % units record (ALL PLAYS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS )

09/21/2018 4-2-0 66.67% +9.00
09/20/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/15/2018 35-26-1 57.38% +32.00
09/14/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/08/2018 31-37-2 45.59% -48.50
09/07/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/02/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/01/2018 30-22-0 57.69% +29.00
08/31/2018 4-8-0 33.33% -24.00
08/30/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
08/25/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

total..............119-104-0.......53.36%.....+23.00

best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

09/21/2018.............3 - 0.............+15.00..............1 - 2...............-6.00...............4 - 2.........+9.00
09/20/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50................0 - 1...............-5.50...............0 - 2.........-11.00
09/15/2018.............11 - 13..........-16.50...............7 - 6..............+2.00.............18 - 19.......-14.50
09/14/2018.............1 - 0.............+5.00................1 - 0..............+5.00..............2 - 0.........+10.00
09/13/2018.............1 - 0.............+5.00................0 - 1 ..........-5.50...............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/08/2018............13 - 14...........-12.00..............12 - 5.............+32.50............25 - 19......+20.50
09/07/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50................0 - 1...............-5.50...............0 - 2........-11.00
09/03/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50................1 - 0...............+5.00..............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/02/2018.............1 - 0..............+5.00...............1 - 0...............+5.00..............2 - 0........ +10.00
09/01/2018............13 - 6.............+32.00.............5 - 2...............+14.00............18 - 8.......+46.00
08/31/2018.............1 - 3..............-11.50..............2 - 4...............-12.00..............3 - 7.........-23.50
08/30/2018.............2 - 1..............+4.50...............2 -1...............+4.50...............4 - 2.........+9.00
08/25/2018.............2 - 0..............+10.00.............2 - 0..............+10.00..............4 - 0........+20.00

total.....................48 - 40............+19.50...........34 - 23.............+43.50............82 - 63.......+63.00

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2018, 02:41 AM

Saturday’s six-pack

— A’s 7, Twins 6 (10)— Khris Davis has 45 homers, four in extra innings.

— Oakland’s magic number to make the playoffs is now 3.

— USC 39, Washington State 36— Trojans blocked a FG with 1:37 left.

— Padres 5, Dodgers 3— LA’s lead in NL West shrinks to 1.5 games.

— Oliver Fisher shot a 59 at the Portugal Masters, the first-ever 59 on the European Tour.

— Texas Rangers fired manager Jeff Banister; he won two division titles in four years.

Quote of the Day
“He’s about to get his ass kicked this year……..I watched him play and he’s got a lot of work to do. But he’s got a lot of potential. He’s going to be really good.”
Joel Embiid, talking about Suns’ rookie Deandre Ayton

Saturday’s quiz
Peyton Manning was the first pick of the 1998 NFL Draft; who was #2?
(Hint: He played college ball in the Pac-12)

Friday’s quiz
Pete Carroll has coached three NFL teams; the Seahawks, Jets and Patriots.

Thursday’s quiz
Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III for their only Super Bowl title.

**************************

Saturday’s Den: College football trends for today’s non-top 13 games

13) Akron is 16-11 as road underdogs under Terry Bowden; they upset Northwestern LW, as a 21-point dog. Iowa State is 5-1 in last six tries as home favorites; they played Oklahoma LW, play TCU next week, so a sandwich game here for them.

12) Under Doreen, NC State is 7-3 as road favorites; they beat Marshall 37-20 (-23) at home LY. Thundering Herd is 6-5 as home underdogs under Holliday; since 2011, they’re 19-8-1 as a single digit underdog.

11) Road team won both Minnesota-Maryland games last two years; Gophers are 2-5-2 in last nine games as road underdogs- they’re 9-5 in games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Terps are 3-6 in last nine games as a Big 14 home favorite.

10) North Carolina won its last five games vs Pitt, all by 7 or fewer points, with average total in those games of 54.6. Tar Heels are 1-6 in last seven games as home underdogs, 7-15-2 as an underdog of less than 10 points. Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 2-1 as road favorites.

9) Clemson won last visit to Georgia Tech 26-7 in ‘16, their first win in last six visits here; since ’14, Tigers are 7-12 as road favorites. Tech is 4-8 in last 12 tries as home underdogs; they’re 3-6-1 in last ten games as double digit underdogs.

8) Notre Dame won last four games with Wake Forest, last three by 11+ points; this is their first visit here since a 24-17 (-13) win in ’11. Since 2011, Irish are 7-12 as road favorites, 3-8 in last 11 tries as single digit favorites. Wake Forest is 8-4-1 in last 13 games as home underdogs.

7) Mississippi State won six of last seven games with Kentucky, but lost 40-38 (-4) in last visit here, in ’16. Bulldogs covered three of last four tries as road favorites. Under Stoops, Kentucky is 3-11-2 as home underdogs, 8-13-2 as a double digit underdog.

6) LSU upset Auburn next week, plays Ole Miss next, so sandwich game here vs Louisiana Tech team they haven’t met since ’09. Tech covered 10 of last 13 tries as road underdogs; they’re 6-6 as double digit dogs. LSU is 1-6 vs vs spread last seven times they laid 20+ points.

5) Kansas won its last two games after opening with loss to a I-AA team; since ’08, Jayhawks are 14-29-2 as road underdogs, 7-13 if getting single digit spread. Since 2015, Baylor is 5-9 as home favorites; they won last five series games, by average score of 54-10.

4) Air Force won its last three games vs Utah State, by 3-7-7 points; Flyboys covered eight of last ten games as road underdogs. Utah State is 5-9 in last 14 tries as home favorites; they’re 13-8 in last 21 games as double digit favorites.

3) Since 2013, Alabama is 13-6-1 as a home favorite in SEC games, 8-11-2 in last 20 games when laying 20+ points- they won last three games with Texas A&M, by average score of 34-19. Since 2013, Aggies are 5-8 as road underdogs- they covered four of last five when getting 20+ points.

2) Arizona State (+18) upset Washington 13-7 in the desert LY; they won four of last five games with the Huskies, losing 44-18 in last visit here. Since 2011, ASU is 7-12-2 as road underdogs. Under Petersen, Washington is 14-10 as home favorites; they’re 13-12 when laying 10+ points.

1) Eastern Michigan covered 11 of last 13 games as road underdogs; they upset Purdue already this year. Since 2015, San Diego State is 7-11 as home favorites. Last seven years, MW teams are 15-11 vs spread when playing a MAC opponent.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2018, 02:42 AM

Saturday’s best 13 games

Since 2015, Michigan State is 1-9 vs spread as road favorites; they’re 4-14 in last 18 games when laying less than 10 points. Spartans won four of last five games vs Indiana (4-1 vs spread), with all four wins by 8+ points- they lost 24-21 in OT in last visit here two years ago. Last 5+ years, Indiana is 6-7 as home underdogs; they’re 6-13 vs spread in last 19 games when getting a single-digit spread. MSU had last week off after a 16-13 loss at Arizona State. Hoosiers are 3-0, with 705 rushing yards in those games.

Purdue lost its first three games by total of 8 points, allowing 722 passing yards in last two tilts. Purdue is -4 in turnovers; since 2015, they’re 2-11 vs spread as a home underdog. Boilers put up 472-476-614 total yards in their games this year, but they haven’t won yet. Boston College might be most improved team in country; they’re 3-0 this year, mostly vs stiffs- they beat Wake 41-34 LW, but Wake’s backup QB played- Deacons ran for 298 yards vs BC. Eagles are 3-7 in last 10 games when laying single digit spread.

Louisville got crushed by Alabama, then was outgained by 136 yards in 20-17 win over WKU last week; Cardinals won their last three games with Virginia, by 15-7-7 points, with average total of 61 in those games. Teams split last two meetings played here. Since 2010, Cardinals are 13-3 as road underdogs, 4-2 since Petrino came back to Louisville; they’re 6-6 in last 12 games when getting a single digit spread. Virginia is 2-3 as home favorites under Mendenhall; they’re 6-11-1 in last 18 games when laying less than 10 points.

Home side won four of last five Arizona-Oregon State games; Cavaliers lost last two visits here, 42-17/42-17. Wildcats are 0-2 vs I-A teams; they gave up 463 yards in 62-31 win over I-AA team LW, same team Beavers beat 48-25 week before. Since 2015, Arizona is 2-4 as road favorites; they’re 2-10 in last ten games as a single digit favorite. OSU is 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as home underdogs; they’re 4-9 in last 13 games as a single digit dog. Beavers allowed 114 points in pair of losses to I-A teams; they lost 77-31 at Ohio State, 37-35 at Nevada.

Stanford beat Oregon 49-7/52-27 last two years, beating Oregon 52-27 in last visit here, losing previous visit 45-16. Under Shaw, Cardinal is 17-12 vs spread as road favorites- they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 games as single digit faves, 13-9 in last 22 as a Pac-12 favorite. Since 2010, ducks are 1-3 as home underdogs; they’re 1-5-1 in last seven games as single digit dogs, 2-8 in last 10 games as Pac-12 dogs. Stanford held San Diego St/USC to combined 13 points in decisive wins already. Oregon scored 51.7 ppg in winning its first three games, all against stiffs.

Florida won 12 of last 13 games with Tennessee, covering its last three games when favored at Neyland Stadium, but they lost 38-28 (+4) in last visit here, in ’16. Since 2016, Florida covered one of its seven road games; they’re 8-4 in last dozen games when a single digit favorite. Since 2008, Vols are 5-13 as home underdogs; they’re 7-14-1 in last 22 games as double digit dogs. Gators gave up 303 RY in 27-16 loss to Kentucky two weeks ago. Tennessee got crushed by West Virginia, then beat up on couple of stiffs last two weeks- they blanked UTEP 24-0 LW.

Underdogs covered last four Kansas State-West Virginia games; Wildcats covered last three visits here, losing last one 17-16, winning other two SU. K-State is 24-9 vs spread in last 33 games as road underdogs, 7-1 last 2+ years- they’re 9-3 in last 12 games as double digit dogs. Under Holgorsen, WVU is 14-21 as home favorites (9-9 since ’15); they’re 9-6 in last 15 games as double digit favorites. K-State gave up 384 rushing yards in loss to Miss State couple weeks ago; they trailed I-AA team 24-16 in 4th quarter in their opener.

Average total in last six Texas Tech-Oklahoma State games is 88.8; OSU won last nine series games, taking last three played here by 1-10-38 points. Tech covered twice inlets six visits to Stillwater; they’re 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games as road underdogs. Under Kingsbury, Tech is 9-6 as a double digit dogs. Since ’08, Cowboys are 34-19-2 as home favorites; they’re 9-12-2 in last 23 games as double digit favorites. Tech beat Houston 63-49 at home LW; TY was 704-635. OSU hammered Boise State 44-21 LW, but did give up 380 PY to the Broncos.

Navy beat SMU last three years, by 3-44-41 points; LY’s 43-40 win was SMU’s only cover in the three games. Navy is 7-3 vs spread in last ten games as road favorites (0-1 in ’18); they’re 5-7 in last 12 games when laying single digit spread. Since 2014, Mustangs are 5-12 vs spread as home underdogs; they’re 3-7 in last ten games as single digit dog. Navy lost its only road game this year 59-41 at Hawai’i; they nipped Memphis 22-21 in AAC opener. SMU is 0-3, giving up an average of 43.7 ppg, outgained by average of 179.7 yards/game.

TCU treated Texas like a piñata the last four years, beating Longhorns by average score of 38-9, winning last two visits here, 31-9/48-10. Horned Frogs covered five of last seven games as road favorites; they’re 4-2 in last six tries as single digit favorites, 4-7 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less. Texas is 4-0-1 in last five games as home underdogs, 7-10-1 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less. TCU lost tough 40-28 game to Ohio State LW; yardage was 526-511. Texas hammered USC 37-14 LW; their one loss was 34-29 at Maryland- Longhorns were -3 in TO’s.

South Carolina won its last nine games with Vanderbilt, winning last three visits here, by 3-14-4 points; underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in Gamecocks’ last six trips to Nashville. This is first time in four years Carolina is road favorite; they covered 10 of last 12 games where spread was 3 points or less. Under Mason, Vandy is 9-6 as home underdogs; they’re 5-3 in last eight games where spread was 3 or less. SC’s game LW was PPD by hurricane; they lost 41-17 to Georgia week before, giving up 271 rushing yards. Vandy hammered MTSU/Nevada before losing 22-17 LW at Notre Dame- they outgained Irish by 40 yards, but were -3 in turnovers.

Georgia won its last four games with Missouri (1-3 vs spread); they won last three visits here, by 1-34-21 points. Under Smart, Dawgs are 6-2 as road favorites- they’re 7-6 in last 13 games as a double digit favorite. Mizzou is 6-10 in last 16 games as home underdogs (2-1 under Odom); since 2012, they’re 3-10 vs spread as double digit underdogs. Georgia hammered its first three opponents, winning 41-17 at South Carolina, running ball for 266 yds/game vs I-A foes. Mizzou is 3-0, scoring 40 points in last two games; they gave up 572 PY in 40-37 win at Purdue LW.

Wisconsin was stunned at home by 22-point underdog BYU LW; since ’12, Badgers are 13-5 vs spread coming off a SU loss. Under Chryst, Wisconsin is 10-2 as road favorites; they’re 7-3 in last ten games as single digit favorites. Road team won four of last five Wisconsin-Iowa games; Badgers won last four visits here, by 1-19-8-12 points. Since ’08, Iowa is 7-3-1 as home dogs, but 4-8 in last dozen games as single digit dogs. Hawkeyes allowed total of 10 points, 399 TY in wins over Northern Illinois (33-7), Iowa State (13-3) to start their season.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2018, 02:44 AM

SEC Notebook - Week 4
September 21, 2018
By Brian Edwards

**Georgia at Missouri**

-- As of Friday, most betting shops had Georgia (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) installed as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 64.5. The Tigers were +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).

-- Kirby Smart’s squad has wins vs. Austin Peay (45-0), at South Carolina (41-17) and Middle Tennessee (49-7). Sophomore QB Jake Fromm has connected on 80.4 percent of his passes for 479 yards and six TDs with just one interception. Elijah Holyfield has run for 200 yards and a pair of scores while averaging 9.1 yards per carry, and D’Andre Swift has 119 rushing yards, two TDs and a 5.0 YPC average.

-- Missouri (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) avenged a lopsided home loss last year by beating Purdue 40-37 as a five-point road ‘chalk.’ The 77 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 67.5-point total. Tucker McCann buried a 25-yard field goal in walk-off fashion to lift Barry Odom’s team to victory. Senior QB Drew Lock completed 26-of-43 passes for 375 yards and three touchdowns compared to one interception. Larry Rountree ran for 168 yards on 23 carries, while true freshman Jalen Knox caught five balls for 110 yards and one TD. Emanuel Hall had four catches for 88 yards.

-- When these SEC East adversaries squared off between the hedges in Athens last year, UGA pulled away for a 53-28 victory but didn’t quite cover the number as a 28.5-point home favorite. The 81 combined points elevated ‘over’ the 58.5-point total. The Bulldogs produced 696 yards of total offense. Swift ran for a team-best 94 yards on only six attempts, while Fromm completed 18-of-26 throws for 326 yards and two TDs with one interception. Lock hit on 15-of-25 throws for 253 yards and four TDs with one pick. Hall had four receptions for 141 yards and two TDs.

-- Former UGA quarterback Jacob Eason threw a 20-yard TD pass to Isaiah McKenzie on a fourth-and-10 play with 1:29 remaining to lift the Dawgs to a 28-27 win at Missouri two seasons ago. The Tigers took the cash, however, as seven-point home underdogs. The 55 combined points inched ‘over’ the 53.5-point total. Lock threw for 376 yards and three TDs, but he was also intercepted three times.

-- Lock has connected on 69.0 percent of his passes for 1,062 yards with an 11/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hall has made 18 catches for 430 yards and three TDs, while Knox has 10 receptions for 169 yards and one TD. Johnathon Johnson has hauled in 14 catches for 149 yards and three TDs, and TE Albert Okwuegbunam has 14 grabs for 100 yards and two TDs.

-- Rountree has rushed for a team-high 260 yards and one TD, averaging 5.5 yards per carry.

-- Before last week’s triumph in West Lafayette, Missouri took the cash in a pair of home wins over UT-Martin (51-14) and Wyoming (40-13).

-- Missouri owns a 2-1 spread record in three games as a home underdog during Barry Odom’s three-year tenure.

-- Georgia has posted a 6-2 spread record in eight road favorite spots on Smart’s watch.

-- The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for UGA, but the ‘over’ hit in its lone contest on the road.

-- The ‘over’ is 2-0-1 for the Tigers, 1-0-1 in their road assignments.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast from Columbia at noon Eastern.

**Texas A&M at Alabama**

-- As of Friday, most spots had Alabama (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) listed as a 26-point home favorite with a total of 61.

-- I spoke to Will Hall, the Sports Book Manager at The Beau Rivage in Biloxi, MS., on Friday. Hall said, “We’ve had the most activity on Alabama this week, more than any other team in college and the NFL. This is the best offense that Alabama has ever had, period.”

-- On that note, we’ll once again point out that betting on Alabama in the first quarter, first half and the game is perfect through its first three outings. In addition, backing the Crimson Tide’s team total to go ‘over’ (9.5 at Ole Miss last week) in the first quarter, first half (24.5) and the game has also been perfect to date.

-- Nick Saban’s team blasted Ole Miss 62-7 as a 22.5-point road favorite last week. ‘Bama raced out to a 49-7 halftime lead and coasted into the win column. There were only 13 points scored in the second half (three in the fourth quarter), however, so bettors taking the ‘under’ (71) got a fortunate win.

-- Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa is now the +175 ‘chalk’ at most spots to win the Heisman Trophy. He has eight TD passes without an interception, in addition to 133 rushing yards and two scores.

-- Alabama leads the nation in scoring with a 56.7 points-per-game average.

-- Texas A&M (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) has posted home wins vs. Northwestern State (59-7) and ULM (48-10). The Aggies took an ‘L’ to Clemson but took the cash as 12.5-point home underdogs and gave an outstanding account of itself in the 28-26 Week 2 defeat.

-- Jumbo Fisher has settled on Kellen Mond as his starting QB. Mond has connected on 62.9 percent of his throws for 824 yards and six TDs without an interception.

-- A&M RB Trayveon Williams has rushed for 399 yards and four TDs, averaging 6.8 YPC average.

-- Alabama has won five in a row in this rivalry, going 3-2 ATS in the process.

-- The ‘over’ is 2-1 overall for the Tide and the Aggies.

-- CBS will have the broadcast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Florida at Tennessee**

-- As of Friday, most betting shops had Florida (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) installed as a four-point favorite with a total of 44.5. The total has seen significant movement this week, falling down from 48 on Monday. The Volunteers were +170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).

-- UF bounced back from its first loss to Kentucky since 1986 by drilling Colorado State 48-10 as a 21-point home favorite. The Gators scored on a pair of special-teams TDs, including an 85-yard punt return from Freddie Swain and a blocked punt recovery in the end zone by Tyrie Cleveland. True freshman RB Dameon Pierce had a team-high 87 rushing yards and one TD on five attempts, while Jordan Scarlett ran six times for 56 yards and one TD.

-- Third-year sophomore QB Feleipe Franks had a mediocre performance, completing 8-of-15 throws for 119 yards and two TDs with one interception. I thought it was a bad move on Dan Mullen’s part not to get significant snaps for either back-up in third-year sophomore Kyle Trask or true freshman Emory Jones. Like I’ve been saying for what seems like forever, Franks is not the Face of the Franchise in the long term. Trask and/or Jones are going to be needed soon and Mullen lost out on an opportunity to get either (or both) guy valuable reps. Franks was flagged for his second unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in two weeks vs. CSU.

-- CSU had a 22-14 edge on UF in first downs and the Gators had merely a 341-313 advantage in total yards. Florida had a plus two edge in turnover margin, though.

-- Florida junior LB David Reese, who was a fourth-team preseason All-American in Phil Steele’s preseason magazine after leading his team in tackles as a true sophomore in 2017, has missed UF’s first three games due to an ankle sprain sustained in late August. Reese has been upgraded to ‘probable’ and is expected to start in his season debut at Neyland Stadium.

-- UF has beaten UT in 20 of the past 25 head-to-head meetings dating back to 1993. The Gators have won 12 of the last 13 encounters, including last year’s 26-20 win on Franks’s Hail Mary Pass to Cleveland on the game’s final play. However, in its last visit to Neyland Stadium, UF allowed a 21-0 lead get away in a 38-28 loss that crushed its hackers as a 4.5-point road underdog.

-- The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for UF with its games averaging combined scores of 53.3 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ has cashed at a 6-2 clip in the past eight UF-UT meetings.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- As of Friday, most spots had Mississippi State (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) installed as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 55.5. The Wildcats were +270 on the money line (risk $100 to win $270). Kentucky (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) has produced wins vs. Central Michigan (35-20), at Florida (27-16) and vs. Murray State (48-10), ending a 31-game losing streak to the Gators at The Swamp two weeks ago. My lean is to the Bulldogs here.

-- ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

-- LSU is a 20.5-point home favorite vs. La. Tech at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU. The Bulldogs are the first of four LSU foes who have two weeks to prepare for the Tigers. The total was 50.5 late Friday afternoon.

-- As of Friday, South Carolina was favored by 2.5 points at Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks had their home game vs. Marshall postponed last weekend due to Hurricane Florence. Derek Mason’s team is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, dropping a heartbreaker to Notre Dame by a 22-17 count in South Bend this past Saturday. The Commodores had all sorts of chances to win the game and had a 420-380 advantage over the Fighting Irish in total offense.

-- Ole Miss is a 29-point home favorite vs. Kent State at noon Eastern on the SEC Network. The total is 74.5 points and my lean is to the ‘over,’ but Kent State’s pathetic 12.8 PPG average from last season made me hesitate to pull the trigger on this play.

-- Auburn will play host to Arkansas as a 29.5-point home favorite at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. AU saw WR Nate Craig-Myers abruptly quit the team this week. Gus Malzahn fell to 0-2 vs. Ed Orgeron when LSU won a 22-21 thriller as a 10-point road underdog at Jordan-Hare Stadium last week. Meanwhile, Arkansas has lost back-to-back contests to Group of Five teams, falling 34-27 at Colorado State two weeks before getting run out of its own stadium in a 41-17 loss to North Texas.

-- 5Dimes.eu has updated its Games of the Year. Alabama is a 13.5-point home favorite vs. Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Other lines for the Tide include: -34 at Arkansas, -28.5 at Tennessee, -13.5 at LSU and -19.5 vs. Mississippi State.

-- MSU is favored by 8.5 vs. Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Moorhead’s Bulldogs are 8.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. UF next week, ok ‘em vs. Auburn in Starkville, 2.5-point underdogs at LSU, 6.5-point home favorites vs. A&M and 23-point home favorites vs. Arkansas.

-- Alabama is the -200 ‘chalk’ to win the SEC Championship Game at 5Dimes. The other odds include Georgia (+250), LSU (8/1), Auburn (10/1), MSU (15/1), Missouri (30/1), Florida (40/1), A&M (40/1) and UK (40/1). The longshots are Vandy (100/1), S. Carolina (100/1), UT (300/1) and Arkansas (500/1).

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