Cnotes 2018 College Football Thru The Bowl Games News- Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall


Thursday, Sept. 27

NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FL...Tar Heels have covered 6 of last 7 on board since late LY. Heels have also covered the last thee vs. Canes, and Fedora 5-2 last seven as road dog. Richt 4-9 last 13 vs. line.

UNC, based on team and series trends.



Friday, Sept. 28

MEMPHIS at TULANE...Tigers 7-2-1 vs. spread last ten reg season games and have covered seven of last eight laying DD. Willie Fritz 5-3 last eight as dog.
Memphis, based on team trends.


UCLA at COLORADO...Bruins have now lost 12 in a row SU away from Rose Bowl, 4-8 vs. line in those. Buffs were 10-2 as Boulder chalk for Coach Mac until LY’s 1-3.
Colorado, based on team trends.



Saturday, Sept. 29

ARMY at BUFFALO... UB has covered last two years in series, and Leipold covering a lot lately (12-2-2 last 16 vs. spread against FBS foes). Bulls 3-0-1 last 4 as home chalk vs. BCS.
Buffalo, based on team and series trends.


CINCINNATI at UCONN...Prior to Ohio non-cover, Cincy 3-0 SU and vs. line for first time since Brian Kelly team in 2009. Edsall just 2-6 vs. spread at Pratt & Whitney Stadium since returning LY.
Cincy, based on recent trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...CMU 7-2 last nine vs. line as visitor including 2-0 TY. Spartans 4-2 as home chalk since LY but that followed 12-20 mark in role previous five seasons. Dantonio 2-7 vs. line last nine hosting non-Big Ten.
CMU, based on team trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Ugh! If NIU a dog here note 10-4 spread mark away in role under Carey since 2013. Huskies haven’t lost SU vs. EMU since 2007 but just 2-2 vs. line last four meetings. Eagles on 21-7-1 spread run since late 2015.
Slight to NIU, based on extended team and series trends.


KENT STATE at BALL STATE...Golden Flashes 6-9 last 14 as dog (2-1 TY). Cards, however, just 7-18 vs. spread last 25 at Muncie.
Slight to Kent State, based on recent trends.


RICE at WAKE FOREST...Bloomgren 2-1 as dog TY, as Owls have moved beyond the last few failed years of the Bailiff regime. Wake no covers first 4 TY and 0-5-1 last five on board since late 2017. Deacs 2-4 vs. spread last six laying DD.
Slight to Rice, based on recent trends.


OLD DOMINION at EAST CAROLINA...ODU big upset win last week but still on 4-10 spread run last 14. Also 2-6 last 8 as road dog. ECU just 2-4 as rare chalk since 2016 and 8-19 vs. line overall since Montgomery arrival in 2016.
Slight to ODU, based on extended ECU negatives.


TEMPLE at BOSTON COLLEGE...BC 12-1 vs. line last 13 in reg season. Also 15-5 last 20 on board overall, and covered last five laying DD. Owls on 9-4 spread uptick since mid 2017. Addazio game!
BC, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at CLEMSON...Revenge for Clemson after losing at Carrier Dome last October. Cuse meanwhile 3-0 vs. spread and Babers 5-1 last six as road dog. Orange has also covered 3 of last 4 in series.
Syracuse, based on recent trends.


SOUTH ALABAMA at APP STATE... App on a 6-game spread cover streak since late 2017. Jags 4-9 vs. spread last 13 away.
App State, based on recent trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at DUKE...Fuente 1-6 vs. spread last seven as ACC visitor. Cutcliffe 9-4 vs. line last 13 at Wallace Wade Stadium and on 6-game cover streak vs. BCS foes since late 2017.
Duke, based on team trends.


ULM at GEORGIA STATE...Could be rare chalk for Warhawks, 2-4-1 laying points for Matt Viator since 2016. GSU however 0-6-1 vs. spread last six ion reg season vs. BCS foes, and just 3-7 vs. points last ten as host.
Slight to ULM, based on team trends.


UMASS at OHIO...Mass no covers last four on road dating to late 2017. Solich was 5-1 vs. spread at Athens in 2017.
Ohio, based on team trends.


PITTSBURGH at UCF...Narduzzi 5-1 vs. spread last six as visiting dog. UCF just 4-6-1 vs. spread last 11 in Orlando (counts Cure Bowl in 2016 at Citrus Bowl).
Slight to Pitt, based on team trends.


SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY...Note Muschamp has covered last eight away from Williams-Brice since late 2016. Though UK has won last 4 and covered last five in series.
South Carolina, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA at NC STATE...Cavs have started 4-0 vs. line TY. Pack 1-6 last seven as Raleigh chalk.
Virginia, based on team trends.


INDIANA at RUTGERS...IU 4-1 laying DD since 2017. Also 6-3 last nine overall as chalk, though has failed to cover last two at ‘Gers. Scarlet Knights 4-8 vs. spread last 12 as Big Ten host.
Slight to Indiana, based on team trends.


NEVADA at AIR FORCE...Pack just 4-9 as road dog since 2016. Force just 1-6 last seven as chalk vs. FBS foes.
Slight to Nevada, based on team trends.


UTAH at WASHINGTON STATE...Utes 10-2 as road dog since 2014. Leach on 10-5 spread run since early 2017 and has covered last five as Pac-12 Pullman chalk.
Slight to WSU, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at ARIZONA STATE...Beavs 26-20 as road dog since 2008. Early days for Herm, though note Graham covered last four tries as Pac-12 home chalk.
Slight to OSU, based on extended trends.


BYU at WASHINGTON...Sitake has already won SU as dog at Arizona and Wisconsin this September. Cougs 9-2 vs. spread last 11 as visiting dog. Huskies only 2-6 last seven vs. spread since late 2017.
BYU, based on team trends.


TOLEDO at FRESNO STATE...Tedford 12-3-2 vs. line since taking over FSU in 2017. He’s 4-2 as home chalk that span, and Bulldogs 17-5-2 vs. line since late 2016. Rockets 2-4 as dog for Jason Candle.
Fresno State, based on team trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at MIAMI-OHIO...Miami on 5-11 spread skid since last season. RedHawks also just 3-7 vs. line last ten at Yager Stadium.
WMU, based on team trends.


FLORIDA STATE at LOUISVILLE...Noles on 5-10-2 spread skid, Cards 5-16 last 21. Petrino has won and covered last two meetings handily, however.
Slight to FSU, based on recent trends.


OHIO STATE at PENN STATE...James Franklin has covered last two vs. Urban Meyer. Buckeyes just 3-5 vs. spread last eight on Big Ten road. Franklin 5-1 last six as dog, and on 21-5 spread run since early 2016.
Penn State, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN...Ark State has won and covered last 2 years vs. GaSo, and Red Wolves 9-3 last 12 vs. line on Sun Belt road. Eagles however have covered first three TY and 5 of last 6 since late 2017 for Lunsford.
Slight to Ark State, based on extended trends.


TENNESSEE at GEORGIA...Vols 3-13 spread skid since 2017. UT 1-6-1 vs. points last 8 on SEC road. Kirby Smart only 4-8 as home chalk since taking over Bulldogs in 2016, but Dawgs on 14-6 spread uptick since late 2016.
Georgia, based on team trends.


LIBERTY at NEW MEXICO...Davie no covers last six as chalk at home vs. BCS foes since mid 2016.
Slight to Liberty, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at AUBURN...Malzahn on 4-16-1 spread skid as chalk at Jordan-Hare and 21-34-2 overall vs. line since 2014. USM 5-2 last seven as dog for Jay Hopson.
Southern Miss, based on team trends.


IOWA STATE at TCU...ISU 12-7-1 as dog since Matt Campbell arrived in 2016, has also covered last two vs. Frogs and won SU in 2017. Campbell on 17-8-1 spread uptick since early 2016. Patterson 2-10-1 last 13 as Fort Worth chalk.
Iowa State, based on team trends.


ULL at ALABAMA... Non-league home games had been a problem for Bama, 2-8-1 previous 11 hosting BCS non-SEC foes prior to Ark State win. ULL 2-6 as road dog since LY and no covers last 6 as DD dog.
Slight to Alabama, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA...OU only 1-3 vs. line in early going TY though Sooners were 9-2 as Norman chalk past two seasons.
Slight to Oklahoma, based on recent trends.


UTEP at UTSA...UTEP 3-12-1 vs. line since LY, but UTSA no covers last 8 or 11 of last 12. Road team has won and covered all five meetings since 2013.
UTEP, based on series road trends.


PURDUE at NEBRASKA...Huskers prevailed narrowly LY, but Purdue has covered 3 of last 4 in series. Frost only 7-10-1 last 18 on board with UCF & Huskers (0-3 with Nebraska).
Purdue, based on team trends.


TEXAS at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder 9-2 vs. line his last 11 vs. Texas. Snyder 28-14 as dog since 2011.
Kansas State, based on Snyder trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at TEXAS TECH...Tech has covered 4 of 6 vs. WVU since Mounties entered Big 12 in 2012. Kingsbury 9-5-1 vs. line last 15 at Lubbock. Holgorsen just 7-7 vs. spread last 14 as visitor.
Texas Tech, based on team trends.


LA TECH at NORTH TEXAS...Skip Holtz 13-5 as dog since 2014. Skip 7-3 vs. spread last 10 on C-USA road. Tech had won and covered 3 straight in series prior to LY. Mean Green 6-3 vs. line last nine at Denton.
La Tech, based on team trends.


CHARLOTTE at UAB...Blazers upset LY in Charlotte, only SU win of 2017 for 49ers. But UAB 8-1-1 last 10 vs. spread at legion Field dating back to late 2014.
Slight to UAB, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at KANSAS... Note OSU has only covered 2 of last 6 in series (2-2-2). OSU however is 6-2 vs. line last eight away from Stillwater. Beaty still just 8-13-1 vs. points at home since taking over KU in 2014.
Oklahoma State, based on team trends.


MARSHALL at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Herd 7-1 vs. line last 8 away from Huntington. WKU just 6-10 vs. points for Sanford since he arrived in 2017. Tops however have covered last four in series.
Marshall, based on team trends.


FLORIDA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Bulldogs 7-2 last 9 vs. line at home (2-0 Moorhead). Mullen returns to Starkville and was 17-10 his last 27 as dog with MSU. Gators however 0-4 as dog LY before his arrival.
Slight to Miss State, based on team trends.


OLE MISS at LSU...Rebs have covered 5 of last 7 since late 2017 and four straight away from Oxford. Orgeron only 2-6 as home chalk with Tigers, though he’s won and covered handily last two years vs. Rebs.
Ole Miss, based on team trends.


COASTAL CAROLINA at TROY...Troy just 2-7 vs. line last nine as host (1-1 TY), though did cover handily at Coastal LY.
Slight to Coastal Carolina, based on team trends.


FAU at MTSU...Lane Kiffin was 9-0 SU and 7-2 vs. line against C-USA LY, and rolled MTSU 38-20. Kiffin has yet to cover in 2018 (0-4). Blue Raiders just 2-6 last 8 as dog.
FAU, based on Kiffin and team trends.


USC at ARIZONA...Clay Helton no covers last six since last LY and just 4-15 last 19 vs. number.
Arizona, based on extended trends.


BOISE STATE at WYOMING.. Bohl has covered last three in series. Wyo also 7-3 last 10 as Laramie dog. Boise, however, is 37-16 as visiting chalk since 2008.
Slight to Boise State, based on team trends.


HAWAII at SAN JOSE STATE...Rolovich no covers last three after quick start, though road team has covered last five in this series. Spartans have actually covered 4 of last 5 since late 2017.
Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.


STANFORD at NOTRE DAME... Tree has won last 3 and 4 of last 5 SU in series. Stanford 0-5 vs. line as visitor LY (though did cover two neutrals), and Shaw just 9-9-1 last 19 on board.
Slight to ND, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN at NORTHWESTERN...Pat Fitz 17-9 last 26 as dog. Hasn’t faced Mich since 2015 and hasn’t won SU vs. Wolverines since 2008 (0-5 SU since). Harbaugh 1-5 vs. spread last six away from Ann Arbor.
Northwestern, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS vs. TEXAS A&M (at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Tx)...Hogs have lost 6 in a row to A&M though 2-2-1 last five vs. line in series. Ark on 5-12-1 spread skid since late 2016 and the Bielema era. Jimbo 4-0 vs. line with Ags.
Texas A&M, based on team trends.


OREGON at CAL...Cal 8-3 as dog for Wilcox since he arrived in 2017. Ducks have not covered their last six away from Eugene.
California, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

North Carolina at Miami
September 25, 2018
By Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes from the ACC in a matchup many figured would be a key game in the ACC Coastal standings. Neither team has the record they hoped for heading into the final week of September, but both teams remain without a loss in conference play, with the winner of this game remaining a threat in the quest to reach the ACC Championship.

Match-up: North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes
Venue: At Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 27, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Miami -18, Over/Under 55
Last Meeting: 2017, Miami (-21) 24, at North Carolina 19

After winning 10 games in a row to start last season and reaching #2 in the polls, the Hurricanes closed last season with three straight defeats and Mark Richt’s squad lost in the 2018 opener despite being considered a top 10 caliber team in the opening polls. The Hurricanes weren’t overly competitive in that 33-17 defeat against LSU in Arlington but have since rallied to reach 3-1 ahead of this week’s ACC opener.

The big storyline is the quarterback decision Richt faces this week. Senior Malik Rosier led the team to great success last season with a 3,000-yard passing season while also rushing for nearly 500 yards. He had 26 touchdowns last season but also 14 interceptions and completed only 54 percent of his passes. Rosier had two interceptions in the opening loss to LSU, but had played well the previous two games with wins over FCS Savannah State and Toledo. Last week, Rosier was benched after Miami failed to score on the first two possessions hosting Florida International, even though he attempted only three passes.

Taking over was freshman N’Kosi Perry, a taller and quicker Ocala product that played well in mop-up action against Savannah State. Perry was sharp with 68 percent completions in relief against FIU, leading an eventual 31-17 win in a game Miami controlled with a 31-0 edge before allowing late scoring. Perry does have two interceptions in his 39 pass attempts but also six touchdown passes with a much higher completion rate than Rosier has featured. He didn’t take meaningful snaps in either of Miami’s road games and it will be a quick turnaround with the Thursday game and less practice time with the first team if Perry is indeed starting against North Carolina as most expect.

Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas have provided a strong rushing presence for the Hurricanes as although each has just one rushing touchdown, they have combined for 500 yards with productive averages. Jeff Thomas has been the big play threat in the passing game with a whopping 315 receiving yards on only 12 catches as Miami’s offense can remain capable with either quarterback.

Miami became a national phenomenon last season with the turnover chain and this season the Hurricanes have been formidable on pass defense with four interceptions while holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 49 percent completion rate. Miami has been among the elite rush defenses in the nation with just 2.1 yards per rush allowed in four games with run defense a consistent area of strength since Richt took over. Miami has an even turnover margin on the season and the only defensive touchdown of the season came on a blocked punt and it was also in the fourth quarter of a FCS game that was 56-0 at the time.

North Carolina was in the summer headlines for the wrong reasons with a shoe selling scandal with 13 players ultimately suspended for various lengths staggered over the start of the season. Last season’s passing leader sophomore Chazz Surratt was among those with a four-game suspension, effectively handing the quarterback competition win to junior Nathan Elliott after they split time last season.

The suspension for Surratt is now over even through just three games as the cancelled game with UCF did count. Elliott has been named the starter this week coming off a fine performance in a win over Pittsburgh last weekend. He threw for 313 yards with no interceptions and two touchdowns leading North Carolina’s first win 38-35. That performance was needed after a four interception season debut at California while also struggling in the loss to East Carolina.

The 0-2 start was a surprise for a Tar Heels team that many expected to compete in the Coastal race. The Tar Heels were a disappointment at 3-9 last season but the team played well in the season’s final month and now with the roster more completely intact this is a team that is a threat to make noise in the division race. North Carolina has leaned on Antonio Williams in the ground game with 6.6 yards per carry, so far unseating Jordon Brown who was the team’s top rusher last season.

Run defense has been an area of concern with 4.8 yards per carry surrendered, but the Tar Heels have been fairly tough on opposing quarterbacks with four interceptions for the defense along with only three passing touchdowns allowed. After being -4 in turnovers in the opener, the Tar Heels are even since but the defense has allowed over 900 yards in the past two games after holding California to fewer than 300 yards in the opener.

These teams were on opposite ends of the standings in a late October game in Chapel Hill last season with Miami ranked #8 nationally and undefeated playing as a road favorite vs. a then 1-7 North Carolina team that was 0-5 in ACC play. The Tar Heels competed well with a 7-6 game at the half before Miami went for 78 yards on its first offensive snap in the third quarter. North Carolina still only trailed by four heading into the fourth quarter and had the ball back down five in the final minutes before losing a fumble in Miami territory. The production numbers were similar with North Carolina actually featuring a slight yardage edge but also four turnovers.

This spread suggests the gap between these programs has closed a bit since last season and this is potentially a dangerous date on the schedule for Miami with the Florida State game up next weekend. All eyes will be on Perry in his most significant test with Richt putting himself open to criticism as Rosier has won a lot of games for the Hurricanes. Perry might provide the best hope for an ACC title shot however with this game a big step in the season goals for both teams.

Historical Trends:

-- North Carolina has covered in nine of the last 14 meetings including in each of the past three seasons, winning S/U in 2015 and 2016 before a five-point loss last season.

-- Miami is just 3-8 ATS as a favorite in this series since 2004, but most of the failures in this series have been in Chapel Hill where Miami has covered once in seven tries.

-- Since 2002 Miami is just 31-48 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points, including going 22-36 ATS in Miami and going 3-6 ATS since the start of last season in that role.

-- North Carolina is 13-8-1 ATS in road games since 2014 while going 10-8 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2007.

-- Only twice since 2007 has North Carolina been an underdog of 17 or more points and both instances came in the span of week last season with contrasting results with a 59-7 loss at Virginia Tech and the five-point loss hosting Miami.

[StarDust Bum]

Demoted Clemson QB Bryant misses 2nd straight practice
September 25, 2018
By The Associated Press

CLEMSON, S.C. (AP) Demoted Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant missed his second straight practice since freshman Trevor Lawrence was picked to start for the No. 3 Tigers on Saturday against Syracuse.

Bryant was given Monday's workout off by Dabo Swinney after what the coach said was an ''emotional'' talk with his senior quarterback.

The team said Bryant also was not at Tuesday's workout.

Bryant started all last season and the first four games of this year. The Tigers (4-0, 1-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) have a record of 16-2 in his starts.

However, Swinney said Lawrence's production this season made him the choice against the Orange (4-0, 1-0).

Swinney said Bryant did not tell him he wished to transfer in their talk.

Bryant is a graduate who could play immediately elsewhere next season, as long as he does not play anymore this year

[StarDust Bum]

No. 5 LSU looks to slow Ole Miss
September 25, 2018
By STATS LLC Editorial

LSU calls itself "DBU" because it has sent several talented defensive backs to the NFL.

Mississippi has the most prolific passing offense in the SEC.

It will be strength against strength when the secondary of the No. 5-ranked Tigers (4-0, 1-0 SEC) matchesup against the receivers of the Rebels (3-1, 0-1) on Saturday night in Tiger Stadium at 9:15 p.m. ET.

"They are very explosive on offense, very hard to stop," LSU coach Ed Orgeron said. "Jordan Ta'amu is an excellent quarterback and he fits their scheme perfectly. He's an accurate passer and he is a very good quarterback. He is a better drop-back passer than we've seen.

"They probably have the best set of receivers that we are going to see all year. A.J Brown and D.K Metcalf are both going to be in the NFL and both are outstanding receivers. We are going to have our hands full with this offense."

LSU ranks 10th in the SEC is passing yards allowed (245 per game), but that's partly due to it being second in rushing yards allowed (91.3) and opponents mostly playing from behind.

The Tigers gave up a season-high 330 passing yards to Louisiana Tech last week as the Bulldogs rallied from a 24-0 deficit to get within three points early in the fourth quarter before LSU pulled away.

"(LSU cornerbacks) struggled last game, but it wasn't all their fault," Orgeron said. "One time I counted it was five seconds the quarterback held the ball. That's on the rush, so we've got to get better. They've got to get better at their technique on the line of scrimmage. We need to help them. This is a total defensive effort; it can't be just all on them.

"This is going to test us. We're going to have to mix things up, but it all starts with the pressure up front."

Greedy Williams has two of the six interceptions for the Tigers, who have created nine turnovers.

"They're very good defensively," Rebels coach Matt Luke said. "They're good on all three levels of the defense. Good up front, really good linebackers, very long and very good in the secondary. I think you've got to be very smart with the football. We have to protect the football. We need some high-percentage throws so we can get on schedule and get the rhythm that we need offensively."

On the other side of the ball, LSU has had to make weekly adjustments to its offensive line because of injuries and a suspension. True freshman Chasen Hines will start at left guard because Garrett Brumfield is sidelined by a knee injury suffered against Louisiana Tech.

That line will be facing an Ole Miss defensive front coming off its best performance of the season in a 38-17 victory against Kent State last week.

The line, which had just 1.5 sacks through three games, had seven sacks and 13 tackles for loss. Kent State running backs had just 83 yards on 21 carries.

"We just need to be consistent and go play good, sound football," Luke said. "You have to do that on the road -- obviously be good defensively stopping the run. Offensively, take care of the football. Be sound on special teams."

LSU has made a habit of letting up when it gets leads. The Tigers led Miami 33-3 and won 33-17, led Southeastern Louisiana 24-0 in the second quarter and scored just seven more points, and led Auburn 10-0 and had to overcome an 11-point deficit to win by a point.

"This is going to be a battle for 60 minutes," Orgeron said. "There is no way that you can let up against this team. They are going to make plays as they are a good offense and we are going to have to keep battling for 60 minutes."

[StarDust Bum]

Stanford's O-line needs to fix 'little' things to help Love
September 25, 2018
By The Associated Press

STANFORD, Calif. (AP) Bryce Love has yet to match last year's record-setting season and Stanford football coach David Shaw said lack of consistent play by the offensive line has been a major contributor.

Hit by injuries, the offensive line has yet to start the same five guys in back-to-back games, and Shaw thinks that's just part of it.

''We still have some inconsistencies up front,'' Shaw said Tuesday. ''We've addressed individual accountability.''

Love will play a critical role, one way or the other, when No. 7 Stanford plays at No. 8 Notre Dame on Saturday.

The Cardinal's rushing totals are nearly half of what they were last season, when they averaged 202.4 yards a game. This year, Stanford averages 104.3 yards.

''One issue is missing blocks,'' Shaw said. ''Bryce has a couple of big runs and we need to give him more opportunities to make plays.''

Love averages 4.3 yards a carry through his first three games - he missed the UC Davis game with a minor injury - a long way off the 8.1 yards he averaged last year and his career average of 7.3.

''We went into the year knowing teams will try to stop or runner, and rightfully so,'' Shaw said. ''We have to be ready for teams who say `I don't want 20 to best us.' We have to be sure that when someone is blocked, they stay blocked.''

Center Jesse Burkett said it's a matter of fixing a few details that will give Love more opportunities.

''It takes all 11 guys to have a successful play,'' he said. ''If one guy misses an assignment or there's a mental error, it throws everything off. We've had a lot of penalties too, holding and false stars. One thing we haven't handled as well as we could have are the unscouted looks. That's when we need to rely on technique.''

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly remains wary of Love's ability despite his lack of production this season.

''He's going to get his yards. He's just too good of a player,'' Kelly said. ''I think you're really focusing on making sure that you're not short at the point of attack. You can't put him in a situation where he can go the distance. You're looking at minimizing his opportunities to turn easy offensive plays into touchdowns.''

Burkett and offensive linemen A.T. Hall, Walker Little and Devry Hamilton have missed time this season, and right guard Nate Herbig has had to play tackle. Hamilton should return this week, and that should stabilize the line.

''Stanford is always going to have a big, physical offensive line,'' Kelly said. ''K.J. Costello has really come into his own this year, distributing the football. He's got a number of weapons. We all know (JJ) Arcega-Whiteside has been a go-to guy but a number of the tight ends are outstanding, big body types that he can get the football to. We saw that late in the game against Oregon with Colby Parkinson, Kaden Smith.''

Costello averages 264 yards in passing and he's been forced to throw a lot with the ineffectiveness of the running game.

''He's made a lot of growth,'' Shaw said of Costello. ''I believe he has a high ceiling and he wants to reach it. We want him him to reach it too. He'll continue to grow, continue to improve.'

[StarDust Bum]

Spartans coming off another uneven performance on offense
September 25, 2018
By The Associated Press

EAST LANSING, Mich. (AP) Michigan State scored 35 points last weekend, which is normally a good sign for an offense.

This time, that figure came with a caveat.

''The way I kind of looked at it is the offense only scored 21,'' quarterback Brian Lewerke said. ''We have to score more than that if we want to win. Our goal is to score 30 every game.''

The Spartans beat Indiana 35-21 in their Big Ten opener, but Michigan State scored one of its touchdowns on a fake field goal and another on an interception return. It was a decent win on the road, but an uneven performance for the offense on a night the Spartans turned the ball over four times.

Michigan State scored only 13 points in a loss at Arizona State , then bounced back to beat the Hoosiers. The Spartans were without standout running back LJ Scott against Indiana, and Connor Heyward managed only 23 yards on 12 carries.

Lewerke threw a pair of first-half touchdown passes, but he was also intercepted twice in the game and lost a fumble.

''He tries to carry the load. I think he tries to make a play,'' coach Mark Dantonio said. ''Sometimes he needs to throw it away. Now I'm not happy if he throws it away either, to be perfectly honest. You're trying to make a play out there but sometimes you've got to do that.''

Michigan State got a lift in the first half when Shakur Brown returned an interception 69 yards for a touchdown. In the third quarter, the Spartans scored a TD on a fake field goal to take a 28-7 lead.

It's not unusual for a team to dial down the aggressiveness offensively when protecting a comfortable lead, but all three of Lewerke's turnovers came after Michigan State had taken that 21-point advantage.

''We always have a tendency to make games closer than we want them to be,'' Lewerke said. ''Especially when we have a lead. That's something we've got to work on, is closing out games.''

The 21st-ranked Spartans face Central Michigan on Saturday.

''A lot of guys on their roster from the state of Michigan, much like ours,'' Dantonio said. ''So you have an instant rivalry-type situation, in terms of guys have played against each other and that type of thing.''

One encouraging sign for Michigan State is the performance of some younger players. Jalen Nailor bookended the scoring against Indiana, catching a 16-yard touchdown pass from Lewerke in the first quarter and then running 75 yards for a TD in the fourth after the Hoosiers had pulled within seven.

Nailor, a freshman from Las Vegas, had only two carries and two catches going into the Indiana game.

Sophomore Matt Dotson caught his first career touchdown pass in the second quarter against the Hoosiers, and that's the only reception so far this season by a Michigan State tight end.

''The tight ends are involved in the pass game. The quarterback has to make a decision to go to it when he's the primary guy or secondary guy or third guy, and there's different reads you go through to take things away. Sometimes he's in protection,'' Dantonio said. ''We want to get the ball to all of our guys. I would like for everybody to get catches and touchdowns. You know, that's fun. Don't have as many tough questions in press conferences.''

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 late starts are here to stay
September 25, 2018
By The Associated Press

Pac-12 After Dark brings drama, even in the daylight.

Those late West Coast games are here to stay, however, despite criticism that they are a challenge for the league, its teams and the fans.

''We've got eight of what we call special date games, Thursday or Friday night games, every year. Those have been very successful for ESPN or Fox just from a purely ratings perspective. And also you don't have the clutter, or the fragmentation of a lot of multiple games going on,'' Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott said. ''So they work well.''

Some have long argued the late starts in the Pac-12 mean that East Coast viewers don't necessarily see key games, putting the league's teams and star players at a disadvantage when it comes to poll voting or postseason award consideration.

Coaches have voiced concern about the late starts because they can wreak havoc with travel schedules and take a toll on athletes. For example, road teams that have a 7 p.m. Saturday kickoff might not be back home until early Sunday morning. If the team has to turn around to play another road game the next week, it's at a disadvantage.

But the reality is that the league has a 12-year, $3 billion contract with ESPN and Fox. Good West Coast teams are going to get those late national time slots because there is no other competition for them.

Scott, who spoke to reporters from this weekend's evening game between Stanford and Oregon (5 p.m. start Pacific), said the league limits teams to playing just one of those games per season. Usually it's no more than two in every three years, he said.

''They've been big showcases. Our broadcast partners like them because they get good ratings. We've got plenty of challenges in this conference with time zone, and being willing to be a little bit flexible and willing to play those has been good for our league,'' he said.

Saturday's game in Eugene, which was the ''Saturday Night Football'' game on ABC, was the most watched ESPN/ABC Pac-12 Conference game in nearly four years with a total live audience of 4.26 million viewers, according to ESPN. The audience peaked at nearly 6 million viewers for Stanford's 38-31 overtime victory.

Some ticketholders aren't fans of late start times, especially when there's travel involved to stadiums. Take Eugene: It's about a two-hour drive from Portland and possibly more on game day, then there's TV timeouts that stretch the actual game before the lengthy late-night drive home.

Alumni on the opposite coast sometimes have to stay up until the wee hours to watch their teams.

Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre noted that his team is coming off a bye before hosting UCLA this Friday night. He said the league continues to address coaches' scheduling concerns over late starts.

''We also understand that we are going to have to play some night games at prime time, which honestly if you're winning games and playing at night, you're kind of pumped about it. Would you rather play at 2 o'clock in the afternoon? Of course,'' he said.

Last season, 24 games started at 7 p.m. local time or later. This year's number hasn't been determined because TV slots are often only determined a couple of weeks before games, not the start of the season.

Utah faced Washington two weeks ago with an 8 p.m. Pacific start time, so Utes coach Kyle Whittingham was grateful for the hour of this week's game at Washington State.

''The 3 p.m. kick will be nice,'' he said. ''Getting to play a game in daylight is going to be awesome.''

TARGETING TARGETING: Scott also addressed a controversial non-call for targeting late in the Trojans' 39-36 victory over Washington State on Friday night.

USC's Porter Gustin made helmet-to-helmet contact with Cougars quarterback Gardner Minshew at a critical juncture of the game.

Scott said he had consulted the officiating team about that call. He said every play is reviewed.

''So you can certainly assume that play got a lot of looks, not just from the replay booth at the stadium, but we've got our command center back in San Francisco with our head of officiating and a bunch of experienced replay guys, who absolutely would have looked at that play,'' he said.

He said it also was looked at afterward and it was not determined to be targeting.

''As you know, in any given game there are a lot of close calls, and this was a very, very close one. No doubt about it,'' Scott said.

At his media availability Monday, coach Mike Leach held his tongue.

''I'd be happy to comment on it if I were allowed to, but I'm not allowed to. But if I were allowed to I'd be happy to,'' he said, suggesting questions be directed to the Pac-12 offices.

''Anything we do in this conference, player safety should be the forefront of our concerns,'' Leach said.

[StarDust Bum]

Several suspended Tar Heels return
September 25, 2018
By The Associated Press

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (AP) North Carolina is nearly back at full strength for its game at No. 16 Miami with the return of several players who were suspended for selling team-issued shoes.

Seven players - including quarterback Chazz Surratt and receiver Beau Corrales - are eligible to make their season debut Thursday against the Hurricanes. And after being down as many as 11 players in the opener against California, UNC will be down just one - starting defensive end Tomon Fox - for the shoe issue this week.

''I'm looking forward to seeing them all, because we need every single one of them,'' UNC coach Larry Fedora said. ''There's a lot of guys that give us some depth at some positions where we've been really thin and it's been really shaky at this point. But now we've got some guys that can get back into the fray, start competing.''

UNC (1-2, 1-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) announced in August that 13 players would miss time for the NCAA secondary violations, with nine set to miss four games. Most of those players were due back this week from the start, though the duration of some suspensions changed once Hurricane Florence forced the cancellation of UNC's Sept. 15 home game against No. 13 UCF.

The penalties were based on a formula that required the involved players to sit 30 percent of the regular-season schedule. Once UNC was at 11 games, the four-game suspensions fell to three games - though they would return to four if UNC adds a replacement game later in the season.

The NCAA had approved a school request to stagger the suspensions with three defensive ends affected. So Fox is starting his three-game suspension, then he'll play against Virginia Tech on Oct. 13 before sitting the following two games.

That approval also allowed Malik Carney - another starter who played the opener then sat the past two games - to play against Miami, then conclude his suspension against the Hokies.

The returning players primarily bolster UNC's depth.

Redshirt freshmen Brian Anderson and Jordan Tucker could see time on the offensive line, which faces a Miami defense that leads the country with 46 tackles for loss. Anderson could see time as the No. 2 center while Tucker is a reserve tackle.

The returnees also include reserve defensive end Tyrone Hopper and Corrales, a 6-foot-4 sophomore who had two touchdown catches against the Hurricanes last year .

Then there's Surratt, a sophomore who started seven games at quarterback last season.

Junior Nathan Elliott has started every game and is coming off a career-best passing day (313 yards) with two touchdowns in the weekend win against Pittsburgh . Fedora said Elliott would start against Miami and was coy about whether Surratt could also see work, though he said Surratt has gotten more practice reps to prepare as a backup.

''When you lose a guy like Malik Carney or Chazz Surratt, people that are leaders or people that you look up to on the team, you definitely feel it week in and week out,'' defensive tackle Jeremiah Clarke said.

''So to have them back this week will definitely be a boost for our guys. But like I said, we have a next-man-up mentality so it's not like we blinked an eye when they weren't there. ... But you've got to take care of business no matter who you've got.''

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 5
September 26, 2018
By Joe Williams

2018 ACC STANDINGS

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 3-1 1-0 3-1 3-1
Clemson 4-0 1-0 1-3 2-2
Florida State 2-2 0-2 1-3 2-2
Louisville 2-2 0-1 0-4 1-3
North Carolina State 3-0 0-0 2-1 1-2
Syracuse 4-0 1-0 3-0-1 2-2
Wake Forest 2-2 0-1 0-4 3-1

COASTAL DIVISION
Duke 4-0 0-0 3-1 3-1
Georgia Tech 1-3 0-2 0-4 2-2
Miami-Florida 3-1 0-0 2-2 3-1
North Carolina 1-2 1-0 1-1-1 2-1
Pittsburgh 2-2 1-1 1-3 2-2
Virginia 3-1 1-0 4-0 2-2
Virginia Tech 2-1 1-0 2-1 2-1

North Carolina at Miami-Florida (Thurs. - ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Tar Heels will battle the Hurricanes on Thursday night, and the 'Canes opened as three-touchdown favorites, but the line is down to 18 as of Wednesday morning. UNC is looking to build upon the positive momentum after last week's home victory against Pittsburgh, a surprise after opening with back-to-back losses at California and at East Carolina. The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in the past four conference games, while going 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven overall and 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record. They're also 8-3 ATS in their past 11 appearances on a Thursday. It's the flip side for Miami, as they're 2-6 ATS in the past eight overall and just 1-6 ATS in their past inside the ACC. The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in the pst five meetings in this series, while the underdog has a solid 10-3-1 ATS mark in the past 14 meetings. The 'under' is also 4-0 in the past four in Miami.

Syracuse at Clemson (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Clemson is looking to exact a little revenge against Syracuse after suffering their lone regular-season loss against the Orange last season. The Orange have been putting up video-game numbers, especially with QB Eric Dungey leading the way. He is a dual-threat quarterback who can do it through the air and on the ground, and he actually might be better running. The Orange are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four, and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning overall mark. Syracuse is also 6-1 ATS in the past on the road. Clemson has covered just once in the past five overall, and they're 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight against teams with a winning overall mark. The under is 4-1 in the past five in this series, with the under 19-6-1 in Syracuse's past 26 overall and 11-4-1 in their past 16 against teams with a winning record. The under is 10-4-1 in the past 15 overall, while ging 4-0 in their past four at Death Valley.

Temple at Boston College (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Eagles were sailing along with three wins and a Top 25 ranking heading into Purdue last week, but the Eagles suffered the loss and are back among the ranks of the unranked. The Owls started out with two ugly losses to FCS Villanova and Buffalo at home, but they won 35-14 at Maryland as a 15-point underdog, and they covered against Tulsa last week, too. Temple has covered 11 of the past 15 against teams with a winning record, and they're 21-9 ATS in the past 30 overall. Despite last week's non-cover, the Eagles are 11-2-1 ATS in their past 14 overall. They're also 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven games at home.

Bowling Green at Georgia Tech (ACC Network, 12:00 p.m.)
The Yellow Jackets step back out of conference after a pair of ACC losses, including a beat down from Clemson last week. It's a pair of 1-3 SU clubs doing battle, and neither team has been particularly hot against the number. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the past five road games, but they're just 8-21 ATS in the past 29 overall and 1-11 ATS in the past 12 non-conference tilts. For the Ramblin' Wreck, they're a respectable 7-3 ATS in th past 10 at home, but 0-6 ATS in their past six overall and 0-4 ATS in their past four in September. The over is 5-0 in BG's past five road games and 10-1 in the past 11 overall. For the Jackets, the under is 5-2 in the past seven against a team with a losing overall mark.

Virginia at North Carolina State (ACC Network, 12:20 p.m.)
The Wolfpack host the Cavaliers in the ACC opener for N.C. State, while the Hoos look to move to 2-0 inside the league after opening with a win over Louisville last weekend. Both teams have been impressive against the number lately, going 4-0 ATS in the past four for UVA, while going 8-2 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning overall mark. UVA is also 13-6-1 ATS in the past 20 road games against a team with a winning home record, too. For N.C. State, they're 4-1-1 ATS in the past six against a winning side, but they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 at home. However, they're 4-1 ATS in the past five at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh against a team with a winning road record.

Pittsburgh at UCF (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
It might get worse before it gets better for the Panthers. They lost at North Carolina last week, giving the Tar Heels their first victory, now they battle UCF on the road in the heat and humidity of Florida.
Pitt has posted a solid 4-1 ATS mark in their past five against teams with a winning record, and they're a perfect 4-0 ATS in the past four after a straight-up loss. However, Pittsburgh is 7-19-1 ATS in the past 27 non-conference tilts. UCF spanked Florida Atlantic last week, and they're 4-1 ATS over the past five games. They're also a solid 5-1 ATS in the past six in the month of September. The under is 6-1 in Pitt's past seven on the road, and 5-1 in their past six against winning teams. The under is also 12-4-1 in the past 17 overall for the Panthers. The under is 4-1 in UCF's past five against the ACC, but the over is 6-2 in the past eight overall and 6-1 in their past seven at home.

Rice at Wake Forest (ACC Network, 3:30 p.m.)
The Owls of Rice head for the Triad to battle the Demon Deacons, a team which has been ice-cold against the number. Wake is 2-2 SU, but a dismal 0-4 ATS to start the season. The 'over' has connected in their past three, and they have allowed 97 points over the past two outings. The Owls have been dumped in each of their three games against FBS teams, but they're a respectable 2-1 ATS in this games. The 'over' has hit in each of their four games so far, allowing 40 or more points in each of their three FBS games while scoring at least 22 points in each of their four contests overall.

Florida State at Louisville (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
These two sides have been perennial powerhouses in the ACC, but someone is going back to the practice field next week with a third loss before the calendar flips to October. The Seminoles have really had a difficult time against the number, going 1-3-2 ATS in the past six on the road while going 1-8-2 ATS in their past 11 inside the conference, including each of their two ACC games to date. For Louisville, they're not much better, going 7-19-1 ATS in the past 27 overall and 2-9 ATS in the past 11 games at home. The 'under' is 12-3-1 in the past 17 road games and 19-6-1 in the past 26 inside the ACC. For Louisville, the under is 4-0 in their past four at home and 7-1 in their past eight overall. However, the over is 4-0 in the past four games in this series.

Virginia Tech at Duke (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)
The Hokies and Blue Devils will square off at Wallace Wade Stadium with the Gobblers looking to bounce back after a stunning straight-up loss at Old Dominion last week as 29-point favorites. Duke has posted a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS mark, and they're looking to stay hot against winning sides. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning overall record. Duke is also 6-1 ATS in the past seven overall, while going 8-3-1 ATS in their past 12 games overall at home. The Hokies have limped to a 2-5 ATS mark in their past seven on the road. The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series, while the underdog has hit in four of the past five meetings in this series. The under is 7-1 in the past eight against teams with a winning record, and 9-4 in Virginia Tech's past 13 overall. The under is 36-17 in the past 53 ACC games, too. For Duke, the under is 7-1 in the past eight leagues games and 15-7 in the past 22 home outings.

[StarDust Bum]

Ohio State at Penn State
September 26, 2018
By Bookmaker

By Kyle Markus

NCAA Football Game Preview - Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions

The Ohio State Buckeyes are ranked No. 4 in the country and have lived up to that billing in the early portion of the college football season. They have plans to make it to the College Football Playoff but have a big hurdle this week when they travel to face off against the ninth-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions.

This could help anoint an early favorite in the Big Ten race as well as give some clarity to the national championship picture. Ohio State is supremely talented but Penn State is not that far behind and has the home field advantage.

The Nittany Lions are slight underdogs in this matchup but the oddsmakers believe the matchup could go either way as it is not a big spread. Penn State was given a scare by Appalachian State in its opener but has dominated since then. Ohio State has not been tested but will be in this one in college football live betting.

This NCAA football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions will be held at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania at 7:30 p.m ET on Saturday, September 29th, 2018. The contest will be nationally televised on ABC.

Odds Analysis

Ohio State has been listed as the 3.5-point favorite to capture this crucial road victory. The Buckeyes are listed at -165 on the moneyline to take care of business. Penn State is the +144 underdog, but odds that low mean there is a decent shot at the Nittany Lions pull out the victory and really vault themselves into the College Football Playoff picture.

The scoring total is listed at 70.5 points as this game should be a super entertaining shootout between a pair of powerful offenses in live betting odds.

Key Stat

53.6. That’s the percentage chance of winning given to Penn State by ESPN’s computer model, which are much better odds than the bettors are giving. It will be interesting to see if the mathematical projections turn out more accurate than the betting lines. For those who believe in the statistical figures, Penn State is going to be chosen with great confidence.

The Nittany Lions have the home field advantage and are averaging 55 points per game behind a star quarterback in Trace McSorley. Penn State is statistically similar to Ohio State and the computer projections clearly don’t think there is a big gulf in talent level.

The Buckeyes are always in the national championship mix because of their excellent personnel and the team is super talented again this year. Coach Urban Meyer is back on the sidelines after mishandling a domestic abuse situation with one of his assistants. Ohio State is the favorite and it will be interesting to see who has a more accurate gauge on this game.

Injury Update

The Buckeyes will not have star defensive end Nick Bosa for this matchup. He recently had abdominal surgery and is expected to miss a handful of games. Bosa has only played in three games this season but already has four sacks, six tackles for loss, a force fumble and a defensive touchdown.

Bosa is expected to be one of the first picks in the NFL draft next spring. His absence is a big one as Penn State definitely catches a huge break. Ohio State’s defense is still talented but without its best player things will be tougher for the Buckeyes.

Free NCAA Football ATS Picks

Penn State is very good and gets the game at home. The Buckeyes have not had a tough game this year and they have an inexperienced but talented quarterback in Dwayne Haskins. Ohio State will make too many mistakes which will open the door for Penn State to come away with the upset win in NCAA football wagering.

NCAA Football ATS Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions 34, Ohio State Buckeyes 30

[StarDust Bum]

Ole Miss at LSU
September 26, 2018

By Tom Wilkinson

College Football Betting Preview – Ole Miss at LSU

Among the most amazing stories in college football is the change in perception with fans and gamblers when it comes to the LSU Tigers and head coach Ed Orgeron. When Orgeron was hired there was a wide range of negativity ranging from laughter to derision to utter outrage. However, nobody is mad or laughing now. After earning a clutch win at Auburn two weeks ago the Tigers avoided their usual letdown pattern with a payout over Louisiana Tech.

For Ole Miss the hire of favorite son and alum Matt Luke was met with reserved attitudes. But Ole Miss has problems far bigger than coaching. NCAA probation and several key transfers have left a shell of a roster.

Date and Time: Saturday, September 29, 2018, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
College Football Odds at BetDSI: LSU -12
Ole Miss vs. LSU TV Coverage: ESPN

Ole Miss has also gotten off to a better than expected start with a mark of 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the spread with an even 2-2 split on totals. Last week the Rebels rebounded well with a 38-17 home payout against Kent that followed a blowout home loss to Alabama. Keep in mind that due to NCAA probation the Rebels are playing purely for pride as there is not going to be a bowl game as incentive.

Matt Luke played for Ole Miss and understands the culture perfectly. He has the tough task of ushering his alma mater through this period of probation and to have them in position to succeed once sanctions are over. Previous head coach Hugh Freeze left behind quite a mess. But he also bequeathed Luke with a high-octane offense that ranks 14th in the country overall and 22nd for scoring.

LSU is 4-0 straight up and 2-2 against the spread with a 2-2 mark on the over under board. LSU scored a 38-21 home payout over Louisiana Tech last week which was impressive in the sense that they did not letdown as they have so many times in the past. The Tigers have one of the most impressive bodies of work in the country with wins over Miami and Auburn already. LSU remains a strong defensive team ranking 15th in the country for points allowed. As usual the offense remains a work in progress but has shown some improvement to rank 67th for scoring. Beyond that the Tigers have an element they have been lacking for several years. Namely a competent starting quarterback.

Matchup to Watch

Joe Burrow transferred from Ohio State to LSU in order to become starting quarterback of the Tigers. Burrow does not put up eye candy numbers but what he does offer is superior game management and the element of confidence. Additionally, the LSU signal caller does not make stupid mistakes. Burrow should have the opportunity to pad his stats against an Ole Miss defense that is truly one of the worst in the country. The Rebels rank 120th in the nation for overall defense and 112th for scoring defense. Against the pass Ole Miss ranks 122nd overall. Its an absolutely helpless unit that can easily be exploited.

Key Stats

Ole Miss has been a strong betting value as a road dog with just four losses in their last 14 games in that role. Conversely LSU has covered just two of their last eight against the spread as a home chalk.

In this head to head series LSU has had the advantage. In the last four meetings between the Rebels and Tigers the Bayou Bengals have covered the spread three times. Additionally, four of the last five between these two teams went under the total. At Tiger Stadium LSU has covered their last two times when hosting Ole Miss with both games going under the total.

Ole Miss vs. LSU Picks

LSU can name the score in this one. While not the greatest offense in college football it is now competent and coherent. Meanwhile the stout LSU defense should hold the Ole Miss defense in check. As mentioned earlier LSU has controlled the cashier’s cage in this series.

Ole Miss vs. LSU Pick: Bet LSU at BetDSI
Ole Miss vs. LSU Score Prediction: LSU 41, Ole Miss 24

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Best Bet
September 26, 2018
By BetOnline.ag

Thursday College Football Betting Preview

North Carolina vs. Miami (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)

The North Carolina Tar Heels were able to use their unscheduled bye week thanks to the Hurricane to their advantage two weeks ago as the extra time off for prep allowed them to be well prepared to beat Pittsburgh as a small home underdog and get their first win of the year. But it's back on the road for the Tar Heels this week, as they've got a date with football's version of the Hurricanes.

Miami has looked strong since losing their opener against LSU, winning three in a row and going 2-1 ATS in the process. But it was last week's 31-17 win over FIU that accounted for that ATS loss, as Miami let their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter (they entered the final frame up 31-0) to get outscored 17-0 in the final 15 minutes and not come close to covering the -26.5 points they were saddled with. Taking their foot off the gas has to be a talking point in that Miami locker room on this short week, but will in pay off in quick fashion as another big number is strapped to the Hurricanes shoulders this week.

BetOnline.ag Odds: Miami (-18); Total set at 55.5

It will be interesting to see what the Miami Hurricanes do with their QB situation going forward, but early reports suggest that freshman N'Kosi Perry is going to get the nod again for this contest. He was the one that looked quite impressive through three quarters a week ago in beating up on FIU, as it appears as though the Hurricanes simply can't live with Malik Rosier's questionable decision making and looseness with the ball. Going with a freshman under the bright primetime lights isn't always ideal, but Perry appears to be the real deal – as much as one can after a single start – and he's got plenty of talent around him in that Miami locker room.

With Miami struggling in this matchup last year with Rosier at the helm a change is going to be welcomed and from a betting perspective it should be as well. The Hurricanes were 21-point road favorites in this matchup a year ago and needed to hold on for dear life in the final nine minutes of the game to avoid being upset. That was with the Hurricanes forcing four turnovers in the contest, so when you get that many extra possessions and win by less than a TD as a three-TD favorite, things obviously weren't working well. There is no guarantee that Perry will fare any better, but he does have the added benefit of being at home for this game.

North Carolina may have upset Pitt last week, but Pitt isn't exactly anywhere near Miami's level this year. We saw that Pittsburgh team get stomped by a ranked Penn State team a few weeks back, and while Miami isn't ranked as high as the Nittany Lions, the Hurricanes still take up residence in the Top 25 for this week and we could have a similar blowout result in store. The fact that UNC is 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) in this matchup the last three years is part of why this spread may not be as high as it probably should be, and it's also part of the reason we are seeing about 70%+ of the action on UNC when you look at the betting percentages at VegasInsider.com. However, whether it's Perry or Rosier under center for the Hurricanes, I'll be laying this chalk in this spot for a variety of reasons.

For one, while it's a short week for both sides, Miami has stayed put for the better part of two weeks now, while UNC has to deal with travelling here. Similar to road teams in the NFL on TNF, road teams in college on short weeks generally aren't the greatest bet, especially when they've found themselves in the public underdog role.

Secondly, Miami's defense is probably the best unit of the four (offense/defense both sides) on the field and it's all about finishing strong for them now. Last week's fourth quarter letup against FIU has to be a point of emphasis for the D this week, and it comes after they let up against Toledo the week prior. Miami allowed Toledo to score 14 of their 24 points in the 3rd quarter of that game before the D “turned it back on” again in the 4th to seal the win. That unit has held those two opponents to just 7 first half points and I'm sure the coaches have preached that they need to maintain that intensity for four quarters.

Finally, Miami is on a 21-5 ATS run after allowing 19 or fewer points in their last outing and if they are looking to make moves up the rankings this week – and they easily could with at least two ranked teams ahead of them guaranteed to lose (Ohio State/Penn State, Stanford/Notre Dame) – style points from a blowout victory on a short work always help a resume. This week we are guaranteed to see five ranked squads go down and some program(s) have to fill those voids, so why can't it be the Hurricanes.

Add it all up and it looks like we will have a Thursday night beat down in South Beach this week as the Hurricanes make a statement that they are serious competitors again this year in both the ACC and on the national level.

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Best Bet: Miami -18

[StarDust Bum]

Week 5 Upset Alerts
September 26, 2018

NCAAF Week 5 Upset Alerts

Now that it's Week 5 in the CFB season, it's about that time in the year where all those “cupcake” non-conference opponents have been thoroughly dispatched of – unless you're Virginia Tech – it's time for these contenders to separate themselves from the pretenders in terms of CFB playoff opportunities.

Top 25 rankings don't mean a whole lot still at this point of the campaign, but with five games this week pitting ranked teams against each other, we are guaranteed to see some things get shaken up come Sunday.

Upsets continue to happen in the CFB world and last week's selections in this piece performed quite well. I got my first SU win with a “small” underdog with Texas knocking off TCU, while Eastern Michigan covered the number in their OT loss at San Diego State and Louisiana Tech managed to stay within their spread as well vs LSU.

Hopefully I can continue to build off that momentum with this week's plays so let's get right to them:

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 1-4 SU; 1-4 ATS

Nebraska +3.5 over Purdue

Without question, the first month of Scott Frost's tenure at Nebraska has been a disaster as the Cornhuskers are 0-3 SU and ATS, have had their starting QB Adrian Martinez go down with injury, and just got their doors blown off by Michigan (56-10). It was always going to take some time for Frost to build this Nebraska program back up to where the boosters want/expect it to be, but nobody expected things to be this bad this early. Martinez has already been named the starter for this week though as he hopes to get this program back on track sooner rather than later.

But this play is more about fading a Purdue team that really shouldn't be road favorites at all. Yes, the Boilermakers managed to upset a ranked Boston College team a week ago (and do so rather handily), but really what else has this Purdue program done to deserve to be laying points going into Nebraska?

That win over BC puts the 1-3 SU Boilermakers in a great 'letdown' spot this week against the winless Huskers team nobody really wants a part of, but I'll definitely be riding with them. I've got a tough time envisioning Nebraska falling to 0-4 SU (0-3 SU at home) to begin Frost's era, and considering the underdog is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last three seasons in this Big 10 matchup, I'm not sure what the 70% of bettors (according to VegasInsider.com) laying the chalk with Purdue see in the Boilermakers here. Had Purdue lost by a TD to BC as that point spread suggested there is zero chance they'd be road favorites here regardless of how bad Nebraska has looked, so does one win really mean that much?

I don't believe it does as this is a gross over-reaction to what both sides have done recently. Nebraska is a team very few want to touch these days as many bettors prefer to wait for Nebraska to prove something to them first, but when that happens the value in the point spread won't be as great as it is now. I did not understand this line very much when it came out, but I'll gladly take the points and the plus-money ML odds on the Cornhuskers here.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 1-3 SU; 3-1 ATS

BYU +17.5 over Washington

A pair of 3-1 SU teams meet out west on national television as the BYU Cougars go into Washington and hope to spoil the Huskies slim hopes of remaining playoff eligible.

Washington has to run the table to even be considered after they fell to Auburn in Week 1, and while the Huskies should be able to get the SU win here, that's a boatload of points for a team that's struggled on offense this year to be laying. Washington hasn't scored more than 27 points against any FBS program so far, and while their defense is definitely one of the better units in the country, I don't believe the Huskies have enough firepower to pull away from BYU here.

Brigham Young couldn't have had a better week to dispatch a “cupcake” last week as the 30-3 win over McNeese State was a great game to have after upsetting Wisconsin in Wisconsin as 23.5-point underdogs. The hangover effect from that big win has come and gone now, as BYU would love to see just where this season could end up going with potentially two SU wins over ranked squads in the first month. So far this entire year the Cougars have made sure to play well beyond their means when they are up against perceived better programs, with all three contests against FBS programs being decided by five points or less. BYU just knows how to hang around and keep things tight, and with a 7-1 ATS run going against non-Independent programs, this game should stay well within the number.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 4-0 ATS

Tennessee +31.5 vs Georgia

Earlier I spoke about how the Purdue/Nebraska line seems to be an over-reaction based off the results of a game or two and that same idea can be applied to this Tennessee/Georgia contest. Nobody out there wants to touch Tennessee right now after they were downright embarrassed at home against a suspect Florida Gators team last week, and considering they lost this matchup with Georgia 41-0 last year, the “fade Tennessee” noise this week has only increased it's decibel level. After all, Georgia is a Top 5 team in the nation and should easily win this matchup at home.

That very well might be the case, but more than four TD's is a little too many points here if you ask me. There is really no incentive for the Bulldogs to come out and put a 30+ point beating on the Volunteers again because now that Georgia is respected as a legit national championship contender, it's all about surviving and moving on. That wasn't the case a year ago in this game when Georgia was still trying to climb the polls.

Furthermore, for as downtrodden as this Tennessee program has been in recent years, playing games in Georgia seems to bring out the best in them. The Volunteers won outright in their last trip between the hedges (they were a small road favorite), but prior to that we had Tennessee catching 199 and 13.5 points respectively here and those games finishing with 3 and 7 point margins of victory for the Bulldogs. I don't think this year's matchup will be that close, but it's going to stay well within four TD's.

[StarDust Bum]

Ex-Clemson starting QB Bryant to leave Tigers after demotion
September 26, 2018
By The Associated Press

Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant feels he didn't get a fair shot to keep his job and has decided to transfer after highly touted freshman Trevor Lawrence was named the starter for the third-ranked Tigers.

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney announced the senior's intention to transfer Wednesday, two days after it was announced that Lawrence would start this week against Syracuse.

Bryant had started the past 18 games for the Tigers, going 16-2. He missed the past two days of practice after what Swinney said was an emotional conversation between the two on Monday.

''It was a rough day,'' Swinney said.

Bryant's demotion did not sit well with the graduate student, who led Clemson to a 12-2 mark last year, a third consecutive Atlantic Coast Conference championship and College Football Playoff berth.

''I've been here. I've waited my turn. I've done everything y'all have asked me to do, plus more,''' Bryant told The Greenville News . ''I've never been a distraction. I've never been in trouble with anything. To me, it was kind of a slap in the face.''

Bryant did not immediately return messages left by The Associated Press.

Bryant, who turned 22 on Tuesday, graduated this past May and has one more year of eligibility left. NCAA rules permitted him to play in four games this year. But had he taken a snap against Syracuse on Saturday, Bryant's college career would've ended after this season.

Questions about Bryant's performance after he replaced former Clemson All-American Deshaun Watson began in last year's Sugar Bowl.

After Tigers' offensive struggles in a 24-6 loss to Alabama, many outside the program started pointing to the 6-foot-6 Lawrence as the Tigers' next championship quarterback.

Bryant won the starting job this summer, although Lawrence has gotten significant time in what had been Clemson's two-quarterback rotation.

While Bryant has started all four games this season, Lawrence has been more productive. He's completed 39 of 60 passes for 600 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions.

Swinney was ''sad'' and ''disappointed'' with Bryant's choice. He also said Bryant has the right to feel the way he does.

But the coach said, ''At the end of the day, this is not middle school. You've got to make tough decisions.''

Swinney believes Bryant got a fair shake and is grateful for all he's done in his three-plus years with the Tigers.

''Another program is going to get a quality quarterback and a quality young man,'' Swinney said.

Bryant completed 36 of 54 passes for 461 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He also ran for 166 yards and two scores.

Bryant becomes the fourth quarterback to leave the Tigers since the enrollment of Lawrence, the country's top prospect at his position, last winter.

Zerrick Cooper and Tucker Israel left in January. Hunter Johnson, a highly regarded prospect in the 2017 recruiting class, transferred to Northwestern after going through spring practice.

Bryant's decision leaves the Tigers with all freshman at the position. Second-year freshman Chase Brice is now the backup while another freshman, Ben Batson, was moved to quarterback before the spring to add to the team's depth.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet
September 26, 2018
By Brian Edwards

**Memphis at Tulane**

-- As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Memphis (3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) installed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 67. The Green Wave was +420 on the money line (risk $100 to win $420).

-- Mike Norvell’s squad has beaten up on three non-conference foes at the Liberty Bowl, thumping Mercer (66-14), Georgia State (59-22) and South Alabama (52-35). The Tigers are 0-1 in AAC play, however, dropping their league opener 22-21 at Navy in Week 2.

-- Memphis didn’t have it quite as easy against the Jaguars last week, however. After taking a 21-7 lead on Brady White’s 25-yard touchdown pass to John Williams early in the second quarter, USA responded with a pair of TDs to tie the game at halftime. Norvell’s bunch pulled away in the fourth quarter behind star junior RB Darrell Henderson, a first-team All-AAC selection last year who may push for All-American honors this season. Henderson ran for 188 yards and two TDs on 22 attempts. White connected on 22-of-29 throws for 292 yards and two TDs without an interception. RB Patrick Taylor added 75 rushing yards and two scores on 17 carries, in addition to catching three balls for 22 yards. Henderson had two receptions for 34 yards, while Damonte Coxie had eight catches for 113 yards and one TD.

-- Henderson is the nation’s leader in rushing yards (709) by an 81-yard margin. He is in a second-place tie for rushing TDs (eight) and is also second in average yards per carry (12.2 YPC!). Henderson has produced those numbers despite averaging merely 14.5 attempts per game.

-- White, the grand transfer from Arizona State, has been outstanding for his new team. He has completed 72.2 percent of his passes for 1,064 yards with a stellar 12/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Coxie has been his favorite target, hauling in 23 receptions for 353 yards and four TDs. John Williams has 15 catches for 146 yards and one TD, while Henderson has six grabs for 124 yards and one TD.

-- The new fair-catch rule on kickoff returns and some shrewd coaching from opponents have really cut into Memphis star Tony Pollard’s ability to impact games through the first four. Pollard had 1,649 all-purpose yards and 10 TDs, including four TDs on KO returns, during the 2017 campaign. He’s been limited to 133 all-purpose yards and two TDs so far this year, only getting once chance to return a kick that went for negative two yards.

-- Memphis is ranked fourth in the country in total offense (593.0 yards per game), fifth in rushing yards (309.5 YPG), and 10th in scoring with its 49.5 points-per-game average. The defense is 24th in the nation in total ‘D’ (317.2 YPG) and 22nd at the defending the pass (166.2 YPG).

-- Tulane (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) has split a pair of home games while going 2-0 ATS. Willie Fritz is in his third season at the school. His 10-18 SU record doesn’t appear inspiring on the surface, but it says here that he’s the right man for the job and has this program on the right track. Tulane, which is 16-12 ATS on Fritz’s watch, has already lost a pair of one-possession games this season, and it lost three contests by six combined points in 2017.

-- Tulane opened the season by hooking up its backers like me in a 23-17 overtime loss to Wake Forest as a seven-point home underdog. Since then, the Green Wave has beaten Nicholls State 42-17 as a 17-point home favorite, before losing 31-24 at UAB and 49-6 at Ohio State.

-- Tulane owns a 4-2 spread record in six games as a home underdog during Fritz’s tenure. Meanwhile, Memphis has compiled a 4-3 ATS mark in seven spots as a road ‘chalk’ on Norvell’s watch.

-- Tulane senior QB Jonathan Banks has completed 49.5 percent of his passes for 792 yards with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio. Junior WR Darnell Mooney has 22 receptions for 385 yards and three TDs, while senior Terren Encalade has 15 catches for 310 yards and two TDs.

-- Junior RB Corey Dauphine, a transfer from Texas Tech, has run for 289 yards and three TDs on just 25 carries for a 11.6 YPC average. Darius Bradwell has 236 rushing yards, two rushing scores and a 5.6 YPC average.

-- Tulane’s top two TEs, Charles Jones and Kendall Ardoin, are both listed as ‘questionable’ with undisclosed injuries. Neither player was on the field at The ‘Shoe last week.

-- Tulane’s defense is ranked No. 116 in the nation in total defense (495.5 YPG), No. 120 in pass defense (304.0 YPG), No. 99 versus the run (191.5 YPG) and No. 91 in scoring ‘D’ (30.0 PPG).

-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for the Tigers, but the ‘under’ cashed in their lone previous road assignment. However, we’ll note that the 22-21 loss at Navy was played in a driving rainstorm for the entire game. Memphis’s home games have gone ‘over’ by 14.5, 18 and 21 points apiece (53.5 combined pts.).

-- The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for Tulane, 1-1 in its home outings. The Green Wave has seen its games average combined scores of 52.2 PPG.

-- Memphis has won 11 games in a row in this rivalry, going 8-2 ATS in the past 10 encounters. Nine of those 10 victories have come by double-digit margins and eight have come by 14 points or more. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the past eight meetings.

-- As of Wednesday afternoon, the forecast at weather.com was predicting partly cloudy skies for Friday night in the Big Easy. There’s only a 10 percent chance of rain, temperatures are anticipated to be in the mid-70s and winds aren’t expected to rise over four miles per hour. The field could be a little wet, though, as the forecast Friday afternoon calls for scattered thunderstorms and a 50 percent chance of rain.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**UCLA at Colorado**

-- My preseason prediction called for UCLA (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) to finish in the cellar of the Pac-12 South. It wasn’t a knock on new head coach Chip Kelly, but simply an assessment of the uphill challenge he faces in turning this program around. It hasn’t been pretty to date. Kelly’s debut was a nightmare, as the Bruins lost a 26-17 decision to Cincinnati as a 14-point home favorite. Next, they got run out of Norman in a 49-21 loss at Oklahoma. Then in Week 3, Fresno State came to the Rose Bowl and dealt out a 38-14 beatdown as a 2.5-point road ‘chalk.’

-- Both teams are off open dates and have had plenty of time to prepare for each other. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had Colorado (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) installed as a 9.5-point home favorite with a total of 60.5. The Bruins were +290 to win outright (risk $100 to win $290).

-- Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the prize of Kelly’s first recruiting class, has been thrown right into the fire and has taken his lumps early in his true freshman season. He has completed 54.7 percent of his passes for 522 yards with a 2/2 TD-INT ratio. Junior WR Theo Howard has emerged as his favorite target by making 11 receptions for 185 yards and one TD. Caleb Wilson has eight catches for 128 yards.

-- Another true freshman leads UCLA in rushing. Kazmeir Allen has a team-best 161 rushing yards and one TD on just 21 attempts for a 7.7 YPC average.

-- UCLA came into this year on a 14-24 ATS slump as a road underdog over the past decade. However, the Bruins did get the money in their lone such spot this year when they lost by 28 at OU as 31-point puppies.

-- Kelly had dynamic offenses during his four-year run at Oregon that produced an incredible 46-7 record. So far at UCLA? Not so much. The Bruins are ranked No. 119 in the nation in total offense (319.7 YPG), No. 102 in passing yards (189.0 YPG), No. 104 in rushing yards (130.7 YPG) and No. 121 in scoring with their abysmal 17.3 PPG average. UCLA’s defense hasn’t fared much better, ranking No. 116 in the country (37.7 PPG).

-- Colorado is undefeated going into its Pac-12 opener. Mike MacIntyre’s club opened the season by beating up on Colorado State by a 45-7 count as a seven-point favorite in Denver. Next, the Buffaloes went to Lincoln and captured a 33-28 win at Nebraska as three-point underdogs. In Week 3, they knocked off FCS foe New Hampshire 45-14 but failed to cover as 37.5-point home ‘chalk.’

-- Junior QB Steven Montez has connected on 73.4 percent of his passes for 855 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. Sophomore TD Laviska Shenault has 26 receptions for 455 yards and three TDs, while K.D. Nixon has 17 catches for 181 yards and one TD.

-- RB Travon McMillian, a grad transfer from Va. Tech, has made his presence known early and often. McMillian has rushed for 290 yards and three TDs while averaging 8.8 YPC. Beau Bisharat has 144 rushing yards and a 7.2 YPC average.

-- Colorado owns an 11-6 spread record in 17 games as a home favorite under MacIntyre.

-- UCLA has been victorious in six of the past seven meetings in this rivalry, including a 27-23 victory last year. However, the Buffs covered the number as 7.5-point road underdogs.

-- When these teams met at this venue on a Thursday night two years ago, star QB Josh Rosen was out with an injury. Nevertheless, I backed the Bruins as a 13-point road underdog and they covered for me in a 20-10 loss. The game was tied at 10-10 early in the fourth quarter.

-- The ‘over’ is 2-1 overall and 1-0 in UCLA’s lone road contests. The Bruins have seen their games average combined scores of 55.0 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for the Buffs, but the ‘over’ hit in their lone home outing.

-- According to weather.com on Wednesday, the forecast for Friday night in Boulder calls for clear skies, light winds and a low temperature of 45 degrees.

-- Fox Sports 1 will provide television coverage from Folsom Field at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Northwestern RB Jeremy Larkin has been forced to retire due to a recent diagnosis of cervical stenosis, which is not a life-threatening condition but prohibits him from continuing to play football. Larkin ran for 503 yards as a freshman in ’17 while serving as the back-up to Justin Jackson, who is the all-time leading rusher in school history. Larkin had five rushing TDs and a 6.0 YPC average last season. He also caught 11 balls for 115 receiving yards. Larkin was enjoying an outstanding year to date, rushing for 346 yards and five TDs with a 4.8 YPC average through only three contests. He also had 19 receptions for 127 yards. This is a crushing blow for the Wildcats, who have lost back-to-back home games vs. Duke (21-7) and vs. Akron (39-34) since winning 31-27 at Purdue in their opener. Pat Fitzgerald’s team if off an open date and has had two weeks to prepare for Saturday’s home date with Michigan.

-- San Diego State star RB Juwan Washington is expected to miss six weeks with a fractured clavicle. Washington had run for 513 yards and five TDs with a 5.2 YPC average through four games.

-- After true freshman QB Trevor Lawrence was named Clemson’s starting QB on Monday, Dabo Swinney gave the senior signal caller Kelly Bryant the day off to absorb the decision. Then on Tuesday morning, Bryant announced that he will transfer and play his senior season elsewhere in 2019. Bryant threw for 2,802 yards with a 13/8 TD-INT ratio in ’17, helping the Tigers advance to the College Football Playoff, where they lost to Alabama in the semifinals. Bryant had completed 66.0 percent of his passes for 456 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio this year. He had rushed for 144 yards and two TDs. Meanwhile, Lawrence has a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. Bryant will have plenty of suitors and be immediately eligible next year.