Cnotes 2018 College Football Thru The Bowl Games News- Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

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Troy pulls away from Georgia State
October 4, 2018

TROY, Ala. (AP) Kaleb Barker was 9-of-10 passing for 136 yards and two touchdowns - all in the first half - and Troy cruised by Georgia State 37-20 on Thursday night to extend the nation's third-longest conference winning streak.

Troy (5-1, 3-0 Sun Belt) has won nine straight leagues games, trailing UCF and Oklahoma.

On the first play of the game, Barker scrambled for a 71-yard gain before being taken town at the 4. B.J. Smith capped the drive with a 2-yard touchdown run. Tyler Murray forced a fumble in the red zone on Georgia State's first possession, and the Trojans went 90 yards to take a 14-0 lead on Tray Eafford's 50-yard touchdown grab.

Troy scored on its third straight drive as Barker connected with Deondre Douglas. Hunter Reese's sack and safety made it 23-0.

Dan Ellington had 272 passing yards and 59 rushing for Georgia State (3-3, 1-1), which was outgained 350-123 in the first half. The Panthers scored both of their touchdowns in the final seven minutes.


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Houston rallies past Tulsa, 41-26
October 4, 2018

HOUSTON (AP) D'Eriq King threw for three touchdowns and ran for two scores, helping Houston beat Tulsa 41-26 on Thursday night.

Houston, trailing 26-17 early in the fourth quarter, scored 17 points in 91 seconds - during a 24-0 spurt. Dalton Witherspoon kicked a go-ahead, 27-26, field goal with 7:51 to go and the Cougars led by 15 points seven plays later.

Houst Emeke Egbule recovered a fumble, leading to Romello Brooker's 9-yard touchdown catch for a 34-26 lead. Tulsa's next offensive play ended in Deontay Anderson's interception and Marquez Stevenson scored on a 6-yard grab.

King had 165 yards passing, with two interceptions, and 117 yards rushing for Houston (4-1, 1-0 American Athletic Conference). The Cougars, the nation's leader in total offense at 608.5 yards per game, turned it over three times and gained 477 total yards.

Freshman Seth Boomer made his first start for Tulsa (1-4, 0-2), replacing four-game starter Luke Skipper. Boomer passed for 227 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

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Friday’s six-pack

Six highest-paid coaches in college football:

6) Kirby Smart, Georgia, $6.6M

5) Gus Malzahn, Auburn, $6.7M

T3) Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M, $7.5M

T3) Jim Harbaugh, Michigan, $7.5M

2) Urban Meyer, Ohio State, $7.6M

1) Nick Saban, Alabama, $8.3M

Quote of the Day
“Alex (Smith) was being Alex. He left the door open for Patrick (Mahomes) to join him. He said I’m gonna be here at the same time, lifting, eating dinner, watching tape, watching more tape, studying the pictures of the game plan versus all the coverages and doing your own little doodles to figure it out. He (Smith) gave that freely to Patrick, and that doesn’t always happen. That’s a big ego position. The QB room can be a little snitty at times. But Patrick came into a great situation. Alex didn’t make any demands of him, but he didn’t close the door on him in any way. Patrick can’t pay him enough for that opportunity.”
Andy Reid, talking to SI.com

Friday’s quiz
Before the Astros were the Astros, what was their team’s nickname?

Thursday’s quiz
Steve Spurrier coached the Washington Redskins in 2002-03.

Wednesday’s quiz
Paul Silas was Lebron James’ first head coach in the NBA.

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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with the weekend here…….

13) Took a walk on Fremont Street in downtown Las Vegas this afternoon; there were three guys who appeared to be close to my age (in my 50’s) who were naked except for a thong, and they were posing for pictures, in exchange for money. Ummm, no thanks.

Can’t help but be curious, though, how much cash they make in a day.

12) Brewers 3, Rockies 2 (10)— Mike Moustakas got the game-winning hit (should Colorado have walked him and pitched to Manny Pina?) after the Brewers blew a 2-0 ninth-inning lead. Rockies were playing in their 4th city in five days; Game 2 is Friday, also in Milwaukee.

11) Colorado Buffaloes have a WR named Laviska Shenault who I think will be an NFL player, but the reason he plays football is unusual, and a little sad.

When Shenault was 10 years old, his dad was hit by a car and killed, with Laviska watching; from that point on, the young man starting growing his hair out in dreadlocks and vowed never to cut his hair, to honor his late father.

When he got to high school and was a hotshot basketball player, Shenault was told he couldn’t play on the school’s team unless he cut his hair, but Shenault declined, started concentrating instead on playing football. Not really sure what the basketball coach was thinking about, but this young man is two years away from playing football on Sundays.

10) Was nice to read an Andy Reid quote today about how much Alex Smith helped Patrick Mahomes LY, when Mahomes was Smith’s backup with the Chiefs. Not all QB’s are helpful to their backups, seeing how backups have sometimes taken the starter’s job. Lot of $$$ at stake.

9) 24 college football coaches are making $4M+ this season, led by Nick Saban’s $8.3M.

8) 58% of NFL plays last season were passes; so far this year, that number is up to 61%.

7) In 63 NFL games this season, there have been 72 games where a receiver gained 100+ yards.

All of last season, in 256 games, there were 140 receiving games of 100+ yards.

6) Houston 41, Tulsa 26— Golden Hurricane led 23-17 after three quarters, but Cougars stormed back and now they’re 4-1, while Tulsa is 0-4 vs I-A opponents.

5) Games scoring zero or one run this season: Orioles 40, Cubs 39. Surprising.

4) Top college football teams at going over the total:

Rice 5-0; South Alabama, Utah State 4-0; Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico, Ohio U, Toledo, all 3-0. Missouri 3-0-1

3) Former major league pitcher Mark Mulder is playing in the PGA’s Safeway Open this week, on a sponsor’s exemption. Mulder shot +3 Thursday, and actually beat five pro golfers.

2) Patriots 38, Colts 24— Julian Edelman was back and New England scored 38 points, which is no huge surprise. Andrew Luck threw for 365 yards and didn’t have all that much help from his receivers, who dropped several passes.

1) Dodgers 6, Braves 0— Hyun-Jin Ryu allowed four hits in seven scoreless IP for LA.

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Friday's Tip Sheet
October 3, 2018
By Brian Edwards

**Georgia Tech at Louisville**

-- Bobby Petrino and Paul Johnson have had better days. Both bring their teams into Friday’s ACC showdown in dire need of a victory. Their respective schools have a combined 2-6 record against FBS competition going into this contest at Cardinal Stadium. As of early Wednesday, most betting shops had the Yellow Jackets installed as 4.5-point road favorites with a total of 57.5. The Cardinals were +160 on the money line (risk $100 to win $160).

-- Georgia Tech (2-3 straight up, 1-4 against the spread) is 0-2 both SU and ATS in a pair of road assignments. Johnson’s club lost 49-38 at USF in Week 2 and dropped a 24-19 decision at Pittsburgh in Week 3. The Yellow Jackets returned home to take on Clemson, but they got smashed by the Tigers, 49-21, as 16-point underdogs. Georgia Tech stopped the bleeding and avoided a four-game losing streak by beating up on Bowling Green 63-17 as a 28-point home ‘chalk’ last week.

-- Senior QB TaQuon Marshall completed 5-of-6 passes for 160 yards against the Falcons. He also rushed for 42 yards and two touchdowns on 13 attempts. Redshirt freshman Tobias Oliver rushed for a team-high 115 yards and two TDs on seven carries, while Jordan Mason ran seven times for 61 yards and a pair of scores.

-- Georgia Tech is ranked second in the nation in rushing yards, averaging 339.2 yards per game. Johnson’s flexbone offense has thrived through much of his 11-year tenure in Atlanta, but its production waned from 2015-17. This unit averaged 34.3, 33.6, 35.1 and 37.9 points per game from 2011-14, but those numbers were reduced to 29.3, 28.2 and 28.1 the past three seasons. The Yellow Jackets are scoring at a 36.4 PPG clip so far this year. Nevertheless, with a 2-3 record and an offense that can grow tiring for a fan base since it’s extremely lacking in homerun potential throwing the ball, Johnson is undoubtedly on the hot seat.

-- Marshall has connected on 30-of-63 passes (47.6%) for 543 yards with a 2/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has run for a team-best 382 yards and seven TDs with a 4.3 yards-per-carry average. Mason has run for 365 yards and three TDs while averaging 8.1 YPC, and Oliver has run for 318 yards and five TDs with a 6.9 YPC average. Senior A-back Clinton Lynch has seven receptions for 209 yards and two TDs, in addition to 57 rushing yards and one TD on 10 totes.

-- Georgia Tech is ranked No. 83 in the country in scoring defense (27.8 PPG), No. 53 in total defense, No. 51 at defending the pass and No. 57 in run defense. The Yellow Jackets have struggled to get pressure on the QB, sacking opposing QB only six times through five games. Senior DB Malik Rivera has shine on this unit, producing a team-high 25 tackles with two interceptions for 84 return yards.

-- Louisville (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) has won two of its three home games, but it has limped to a 1-2 spread record and basically just gave away a victory last week due to perhaps the most inept play-call of Petrino’s career. With U of L leading FSU 24-21 with just over two minutes to play, it took over possession on FSU’s 21 with the Seminoles having two timeouts remaining. In this situation, the worst-case scenario is to run it three times in a row and settle for a short field-goal attempt. Willie Taggart would have to use both timeouts and the clock would drip down to around 1:15 left by the time FSU took over without a timeout and most likely down by six points. Instead, Petrino called a pass play that was intercepted by A.J. Westbrook. Five plays later, FSU hit a long TD pass and got a defensive stop to capture a 28-24 victory. The Cardinals still took the cash as 5.5-point home underdogs, but they allowed a 14-point halftime advantage and a double-digit lead with less than 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter slip away.

-- U of L sophomore QB Jawon Pass completed 24-of-45 passes for 306 yards with two TD and two interceptions vs. FSU. He also had a 14-yard TD run to open the scoring. Senior WR Jaylen Smith, a first-team All-ACC selection last season, had five receptions for 100 yards. Dez Fitzpatrick had four catches for 45 yards and one TD, while Micky Crum had eight grabs for 47 yards and one TD. RB Trey Smith rushed for a team-best 70 yards on 14 carries.

-- Louisville had a 24-16 advantage in first downs over the ‘Noles and a 421-370 edge in total yards. FSU was plus two in turnover margin, however.

-- With Lamar Jackson as its starting QB the past two seasons, U of L averaged 42.5 and 38.1 PPG in 2016 and ’17, respectively. Through five games this year, the Cardinals are ranked No. 122 in the nation in scoring with a pedestrian 18.4 PPG average. They’re No. 120 in total offense, No. 112 in rushing yards and No. 102 in passing yards.

-- Louisville opened the season by losing to top-ranked Alabama by a 51-14 count down in Orlando. The Cardinals responded with back-to-back home victories (but non-covers) vs. Indiana State (31-7) and vs. Western Kentucky (20-17). They lost 27-3 at Virginia before last week’s meltdown.

-- Pass has completed merely 51.7 percent of his passes for 760 with an abysmal 4/7 TD-INT ratio. RS freshman QB Malik Cunningham has been given playing time under center as well. In fact, he’s rushed for a team-high 209 yards and one TD with a 4.9 YPC average. Cunningham has connected on 64.7 percent of his throws for 198 yards with a 1/1 TD-INT ratio. Jaylen Smith has 13 receptions for 224 yards and one TD, while Fitzpatrick has caught 14 balls for 168 yards and one TD. Trey Smith has run for 105 yards with a 4.4 YPC average.

-- Louisville has compiled a 3-2 spread record as a home underdog during Petrino’s second run at the school that started in 2014.

-- According to an SB Nation report on Tuesday, U of L would owe Petrino more than $14 million if it fires him during the 2018 season or right after it. Remember, it was recently-fired AD Tom Jurich who brought Petrino back to the school (after he bolted for the Atlanta Falcons less than a year after signing a 10-year contract) and extended his contract to 2023 after Jackson won the Heisman and the Cards went 9-4 in 2016. Amid the FBI investigation that led to basketball coach Rick Pitino being fired, Jurich was also fired but is owed more than $7 million from the school. Pitino has sued U of L to collect $37 million. Therefore, with the amount of money it would take to attract a quality new coach, the Cardinals appear to be stuck with Petrino. Like I said when Jurich decided to give Petrino a second chance, the school new it was getting into a bed with fleas.

-- Georgia Tech owns a 10-12-2 spread record in 24 games as a road favorite during Johnson’s 11 seasons on the job.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for U of L, 2-1 in its home contests. The Cardinals’ games have averaged combined scores of 44.4 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Georgia Tech, 1-1 in its two road outings. The Yellow Jackets have seen their games average combined scores of 64.2 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Utah State at BYU**

-- As of Wednesday, most spots had BYU (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) listed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 55. The Aggies were +120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120).

-- Utah State (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare for the Cougars, who are playing their sixth game in a six-week stretch. Since losing 38-31 at Michigan State as a 23.5-point road underdog in its season opener, Matt Wells’s squad has ripped off three consecutive wins both SU and ATS vs. New Mexico State (60-13), vs. Tennessee Tech (73-12) and vs. Air Force (42-32).

-- Utah State led 35-14 against the Falcons late in the third quarter, only to see them cut the deficit to three with an 18-0 run in less than six minutes of play. Air Force got a 21-yard scoop-and-score fumble return from Christopher Musselman with 13:00 remaining to make it 35-32. But the Aggies answered with Gerold Bright’s 70-yard TD run with 6:52 left to cover the spread. Sophomore QB Jordan Love completed 26-of-38 passes for 356 yards and two TDs without an interception. Bright rushed for 101 yards and two TDs on 11 carries, while junior RB Darwin Thompson had 34 rushing yards and two scores on six attempts. Senior WR Ron’quavion Tarver hauled in nine catches for 128 yards, and Dax Raymond caught four balls for 68 receiving yards and one TD.

-- Utah State is averaging 51.5 PPG to rank fourth in the nation in scoring. The Aggies are No. 31 in the country in total offense and No. 29 in passing yards.

-- Love has completed 66.7 percent of his throws for 1,070 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. Tarver has 22 receptions for 228 yards and Raymond has 15 catches for 210 yards and one TD. Bright has rushed for 288 yards and four TDs with a 7.2 YPC average, while Thompson has run for 265 yards and six TDs with a 9.5 YPC average.

-- During Wells’s six-year tenure, Utah State has produced an 8-12 ATS mark when playing in the road underdog role.

-- BYU has wins at Arizona (28-23), at Wisconsin (24-21) and vs. McNeese State (30-3), but it lost 21-18 vs. California as a 2.5-point home favorite in Week 2. The Cougars dropped a 35-7 decision at Washington as 18.5-point road underdogs last week. They managed merely 194 yards of total offense, averaged only 1.2 YPC and didn’t score until Lopini Katoa found paydirt on a one-yard plunge with just 41 ticks remaining. Tanner Mangum completed 18-of-21 throws but for only 160 passing yards. Katoa had seven catches for 66 yards, in addition to 27 rushing yards and one score on eight carries.

-- Making matters worse in last week’s defeat at UW, tight end Moroni Laulu-Pututau was lost to a season-ending knee injury. Laulu-Pututau had 14 catches for 120 yards and one TD.

-- Mangum was forced into the starting QB role in the season opener at Nebraska in 2015 when Taysom Hill sustained a season-ending leg injury. All he did in his freshman debut was successfully throw a Hail-Mary TD pass on the game's final play in Lincoln. He then created fourth-quarter heroics in a home win over Boise State. the next Saturday. Mangum posted a 23/10 TD-INT ratio and threw for 3,377 yards that campaign. Hill returned in ’16 and regained his starting role, limiting Mangum to mop-up duty. He became the starter again last year, but he completed just 57.2 percent of his throws for 1,540 yards with a 9/8 TD-INT ratio. Here in the first five games this season, Mangum has 772 passing yards and a 3/2 TD-INT ratio.

-- BYU is ranked No. 125 nationally in total offense, No. 116 in passing yards, No. 102 in rushing and No. 115 in scoring with its meager 21.4 PPG average.

-- BYU is 4-6 ATS in 10 games as a home favorite during Kalani Sitake’s three-year tenure.

-- The ‘under’ is a perfect 5-0 for BYU, 2-0 in its home games. The Cougars have seen their games produce an average combined score of 42.0 PPG. This is the second-highest total they've seen this year. The 51 combined points in their season-opening win at Arizona fell below the 58.5-point tally.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-0 for Utah State with its games averaging combined scores of 75.2 PPG.

-- ESPN2 will have the broadcast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Marshall (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) will play host to Middle Tennessee at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network. The Thundering Herd won 20-17 at Western Ky. last week thanks to a 32-yard TD pass from Isaiah Green to Tyre Brady with 1:44 remaining. Brady helped Green overcome three interceptions by making eight receptions for 162 yards and two TDs, including a 40-yard TD catch early in the first quarter. As of Tuesday, most spots had Doc Holliday’s team installed as a 6.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 53. Rick Stockstill’s club improved to 2-2 both SU and ATS with last week’s 25-24 win over FAU as a 2.5-point home underdog. Stockstill chose to go for two after a potential tying TD late in the fourth quarter and the conversion was good when Brent Stockstill found Gatlin Casey with 38 ticks left. Since 2008, the Blue Raiders have limped to a 15-24-1 spread record as road underdogs.

-- FAU fell to 0-5 ATS in last week’s loss in Murfeesboro. The Owls are joined as winless for our purposes by other schools such as Nebraska (0-4 ATS), UConn (0-4-1) and UTSA (0-4-1).

-- The ATS Perfection Club is led by Washington State with its 5-0 spread record. West Virginia, FIU, Utah State, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are 4-0 ATS, while Syracuse is 4-0-1 versus the number. App. State (and Utah State, as previously noted) has seen the ‘over’ go 4-0, while Georgia Southern has watched the ‘under’ hit at a 4-0 clip.

-- UNLV star QB Armani Rogers could be out up to six weeks with a broken toe, according to a report from the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Mark Anderson (formerly of the Tallahassee Democrat WAYyyy back in the day). Rogers has completed just 41.5 percent of his passes for 369 yards with a 6/4 TD-INT ratio. However, the sophomore signal caller out of powerhouse Bishop Gorman HS, where Tony Sanchez coached before moving from the prep to the FBS level to take the UNLV gig, has rushed for a team-best 488 yards and six TDs with a 6.9 YPC average.

-- Something’s got to give with the total (55.5 pts.) in South Alabama’s road game at Georgia Southern. The ‘over’ is 5-0 for the USA Jaguars, who have seen combined scores of 56, 68, 72, 87 and 59. As noted earlier, the ‘under’ is perfect for the Eagles. USA is playing its third consecutive road game and is looking to avenge a 52-0 loss to the Eagles last year. In fact, Georgia Southern has beaten the Jags in all four meetings since moving up from FCS to the Sun Belt Conference.

-- Best wishes to Texas Tech true freshman QB Alan Bowman, who remains hospitalized with a partially collapsed lung sustained during last week’s 42-34 home loss to West Virginia. Likewise, we’re rooting hard for Tennessee State LB Christion Abercombie, who collapsed on the sidelines in last week’s narrow loss at Vanderbilt. Before collapsing, Abercrombie complained of a headache. He was rushed to nearby Vanderbilt Medical Center and underwent immediate emergency surgery on his brain. Abercrombie is reportedly showing small signs of progress but remains in Nashville in critical condition.

-- I’ve talked plenty on radio shows this week about James Franklin’s atrocious play call on fourth down at crunch time vs. Ohio State this past Saturday night, but I’ve yet to put anything about it in print here at VI. Until now, that is. My goodness, have you ever seen anything worse than that?! (This was worse than throwing on 1st and goal in the Seahawks-Patriots’ Super Bowl.) There are basically zero situations where you run the ball there on fourth and five unless you have Jim Brown, Earl Campbell and Barry Sanders lined up in the Power-I formation, right? But the circumstances were that PSU’s best player is QB Trace McSorley, who by the way, was more than capable of running or throwing for first-down yardage, especially if you call a play to get him out of the pocket. He’s your ‘horse,’ your senior leader and your Heisman Trophy candidate. And on the most important play of the season, you take the ball out of his hands? Hey, I’ve always liked Franklin and still do, but that was utterly insane! The dude literally lost his sanity at a time in which that’s not acceptable for any head coach at any level.

-- Boston College star RB A.J. Dillon is ‘questionable’ at N.C. State. and is expected to be a game-time decision. He had not practiced yet this week, as of Wednesday, due to the ankle injury suffered in last week’s 45-35 home win over Temple. Dillon is ranked tops in the ACC and third in the nation with 652 rushing yards. He’s in a 10th-place tie nationally in rushing TDs (six) and is averaging 6.2 YPC.

-- Stanford RB Bryce Love is ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury for a home game vs. Utah. The Cardinal is favored by five points over the Utes, who are 18-11 ATS in 29 games as road underdogs in the past decade.

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college football best bets aug-sept.

total..........185 - 181-0.......50.54%....-64.35

best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

total.....................77 - 72............-11.500...........49 - 40.............+25.00..........126 - 112.......+10.50

PODS............RECORD.............0 - 2....................TOTALS....................... .-11.00

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College Football Best Bets For October


Date w-l-t % units record (ALL PLAYS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS )

10/04/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00



best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

10/04/2018............2 - 0...............+10.00.............2 - 0..............+10.00..............+20.00

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Money-line Plays - Week 6
October 4, 2018
By Bookmaker

By Kyle Markus

College Football - Week 6 Moneyline Plays

In college football, picking straight up winners can be relatively easy when there are large spreads between a superior and inferior foe. The oddsmakers know this all too well and adjust the moneylines accordingly. Yes, the majority of favorites win, but they don’t pay out very well if the line is too high. An underdog upset, meanwhile, can be extremely lucrative.

Choosing the right teams on the moneyline is an art. It is less risky than choosing the spread because late touchdowns that are meaningless to the final score can’t result in a backdoor cover. However, a favorite that loses on the moneyline will cause a hit to the bankroll, so bettors have to be careful which teams they choose in NCAA football wagering.

Here is a list at some of the best college football moneyline plays of Week 6.

Odds Analysis

The LSU Tigers have been one of the most impressive teams in the earlygoing. They have wins already over Miami and Auburn to jump into the top-5 nationally and put themselves squarely in the College Football Playoff conversation. LSU may be able to make the Playoff with one loss but is surely doesn’t want it to come this week. The Tigers must hit the road to face off against the Florida Gators. Florida has been inconsistent on the year but playing at home should give it confident. LSU is the choice as the slight -145 favorite.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are hosting the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has hit a new level with Ian Book being implemented as the starting quarterback, but this is not an easy matchup. The FIghting Irish is the favorite, and the Hokies are the +211 underdogs on the moneyline. It’s possible Notre Dame comes in and takes care of business, but at this price Virginia Tech is a worthy underdog to take on the moneyline.

The Arizona State Sun Devils are hitting the road to face off against the Colorado Buffaloes. The talent level on these teams looks pretty even, with the Buffs the favorite in large part because of the home field advantage. The Sun Devils have experience at quarterback and an elite wideout, which makes them a good bet to pull the upset. Arizona State would pay out at +125 with the win on the moneyline.

The Texas A&M Aggies are welcoming the surprising Kentucky Wildcats to town. Texas A&M is the -220 favorite but that is a much lower number than what was expected when the season began. Don’t be tricked by Kentucky’s hot start. The Aggies are the superior team and are playing at home. Take Texas A&M on the moneyline in this one.

The Oklahoma Sooners are matching up against the Texas Longhorns in a neutral site matchup at the Cotton Bowl. Texas’ defense has looked good this year but it faces one of the most electrifying players in the country in Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray. His presence alone is good reason to roll with the Sooners at -280 odds on the moneyline.

Free NCAA Football ATS Picks

One of the most intriguing underdog picks of the week is the San Diego State Aztecs on the road against the Boise State Broncos. There is every reason to believe Boise State will cruise to the win as they have the superior team and are not dealing with as many injuries. However, the Aztecs may be being underestimated in this one. If they can get some unexpected play from some key backups they could make it interesting.

San Diego State could pay out in a huge way as it is a +447 underdog on the moneyline in NCAA football betting.

NCAA Football ATS Pick: San Diego State to upset Boise State at +447 on the moneyline

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Power 5 Best Bets - Week 6
October 4, 2018
By YouWager.eu

College Football Week 6 - Power 5 Conference Best Bets

There are a lot of conferences and teams in college football, but when it comes to the playoffs, there are only really 5 that matter. These are the Power 5 conferences, and they are where the playoff teams are plucked from.

This season could be a little different, though, as Notre Dame, an independent, are knocking on the door, while there has been talk that another unbeaten season for the UCF Knights might well see them given some consideration.

For now, though, we are sticking with the power conferences and taking a look at the best games available in each this week with all odds, props and futures are sponsored by YouWager.eu

ACC
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-265) at Virginia Tech Hokies (+215)

The Irish are sitting just outside the playoffs at the #6 spot in the national rankings and will have a tough one this weekend against the Virginia Tech Hokies from the ACC. The Hokies had started the season well enough, but after being forced to sit out a week due to a weather cancellation, they came out and played a stinker, losing in a stunning upset to Old Dominion. They got back on track with a win last week and are now at #24. This will not be an easy one for the Irish, but it’s a game I believe that they will win.

Big 12
Texas Longhorns (+240) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-300)

Not only is this the biggest game featuring a Big 12 team, it may also be the biggest game on the schedule. These two teams will face off in the Cotton Bowl in the Red River Rivalry, with both teams currently ranked in the top 25. This is a huge game for both of them and it’s a match-up that usually delivers a tight score. The Oklahoma Sooners have won back to back games in this rivalry, with each one them decided by 5 points. Look for the Sooners to win again by a similarly tight score line.

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Big Ten
Maryland Terrapins (+650) at Michigan Wolverines (-1000)

There are no real huge games in the Big Ten Conference this coming week, but this game strikes as being the most intriguing of the bunch. The Wolverines, who lost their season opener to Notre Dame, have bounced back in a big way to win 4 straight with their offense really starting to roll. While this looks like another straightforward win, let’s not forget that Maryland stunned Texas in the opening week of the season. I don’t see them doing the same here, though, as this should be a comfortable win for the Wolverines.

Pac-12
Arizona State Sun Devils (+125) at Colorado Buffaloes (-145)

Perhaps not the sexiest game on the conference schedule this week, but one that should be fun to watch. The Buffaloes have started the season with a perfect 4-0 record, covering the spread in each of those games and 4 of their last 5 overall. They are a 3-point favorite over the Sun Devils, who have covered in 6 of their last 7, 3 of which were as the underdog. I think we are in for a close game here, but I ultimately like the Buffaloes to win and cover.

SEC
LSU Tigers (-125) at Florida Gators (+105)

If anyone is going to be able to get past the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC West, it is increasingly looking as though that team might be the LSU Tigers. They are 5-0 on the season and have already knocked off division rivals Auburn. The Florida Gators only have a single loss on the season, but the bas news is that it came against a conference foe. Another loss here and their SEC Championship dreams are likely dead. I think they are in trouble, as I like the LSU Tigers to win.

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Big Ten Report - Week 6
October 4, 2018
By ASA

2018 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 2-2 0-1 2-2 1-3
Indiana 4-1 1-1 1-4 2-3
Iowa 3-1 0-1 3-1 2-2
Maryland 3-1 1-0 3-1 2-2
Michigan 4-1 2-0 2-3 2-3
Michigan State 3-1 1-0 1-3 3-1
Minnesota 3-1 0-1 3-1 2-2
Nebraska 0-4 0-2 0-4 2-2
Northwestern 1-3 1-1 2-2 2-2
Ohio State 5-0 2-0 3-2 2-3
Penn State 4-1 1-1 4-1 4-1
Purdue 2-3 1-1 3-2 3-2
Rutgers 1-4 0-2 2-3 2-3
Wisconsin 3-1 1-0 1-3 2-2

Games Scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 6

Maryland at Michigan (-17.5) - (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

MARYLAND – The Terps were one of the surprise teams in the Big Ten after their first two games which were both wins including an impressive 34-29 win over Texas as a 13-point underdog. They were then brought back down to earth in a big way losing 35-14 to a Temple team that was 0-2 at the time. Maryland was favored by 15 in that game and the Owls dominated from start to finish. Two weeks ago they played host to Minnesota in their Big Ten opener and rolled over the undefeated Gophers winning 42-13 outgaining them by 170 yards. Last week the Terrapins had a bye giving them two full weeks to get ready for their trip to Ann Arbor. This will be an interesting match up of opposing strengths as Maryland ranks 3rd in the Big Ten in rushing averaging 258 YPG while the Michigan defense allows just 86 YPG on the ground. If they can’t establish the run vs Michigan the Terps might be in trouble as their freshman QB Kasim Hill has only completed 42 passes through 4 games and is completing barely 50% of his attempts. Maryland ranks 121st nationally in passing offense averaging only 141 YPG through the air.

MICHIGAN – After coasting through 3 easy opponents at home, the Wolverines were finally back on the road last week and they were taken to the wire by Northwestern. The Cats scored on their first 3 possessions jumping out to a quick 17-0 lead. NW gained 145 yards on those first 3 possessions but were held scoreless after that. Once Michigan settled down defensively they were able to limit the Wildcats to only 57 yards after those first 3 drives. The Cats were without their top RB Jeremy Larkin who retired earlier in the week and it showed as Michigan completely walled off that portion of Northwestern’s offense holding them to 28 yards on 34 carries. The Wildcats were forced to punt on all of their 2nd half possessions and never crossed mid-field. Michigan took their first lead of the game 20-17 with just 4:06 remaining in the game after a clutch 11-play 67-yard drive ended in a TD. The Wolves continue to have a problem with the laundry as they had 11 penalties for over 100 yards. They are the 12th most penalized team in the nation averaging 85 YPG in penalties.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The Wolverines are a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS vs Maryland the last 3 years winning by an average score of 41-4 and covering those games by an average of 16 PPG. In those three games (2015-2017) Maryland has scored a total of 13 points. The Terps have been an underdog of 17 or more 6 times since the start of the 2016 season. They are 1-5 ATS in those games. Going back to 1980 Maryland is 18-28-2 ATS (4-44 SU) as a dog of 17 or more. Michigan is 9-4 ATS as a home favorite of 2 TD’s or more vs Big Ten teams dating back to 2007.

Northwestern at Michigan State (-10) - (FS1, 12:00 p.m. ET)

NORTHWESTERN – The Cats gave a valiant effort coming off their bye last week but fell just short of a huge upset vs Michigan. After the first 3 offensive possessions for each team, Northwestern was ahead 17-0 and had outgained Michigan 145 to 21. From that point on, the Wolverines dominated outscoring the Cats 20-0 and outgaining them 355 to 57 leading to the 20-17 win. The problem with Northwestern’s offense this year is they can’t run the ball. Last week they were held to a paltry 28 yards on 34 attempts. They’ve only topped 100 yards rushing as a team in one game this season vs Purdue. They rank dead last in the Big Ten and 122nd nationally in rushing offense averaging only 95 YPG. On top of that they lost their top RB Larkin last week when he retired due to a medical issue. This is putting big time pressure on QB Clayton Thorson, who’s coming off an ACL injury, to be perfect in order for the Wildcats to put points on the board. Now they face an MSU defense that ranks #1 nationally in rush defense and has allowed just 161 yards rushing the entire season! Thorson will have to be very good here to give Northwestern a shot at the upset.

MICHIGAN STATE – After beating Indiana two weeks ago to open up the Big Ten season, Sparty had a bit of a letdown spot last week hosting Central Michigan before getting back into their Big Ten slate. The Spartans (-28) jumped out to a 31-3 lead after 3 quarters and then held on for a 31-20 win. The Michigan State defense continued to shine holding CMU to just 245 yards with 170 of those coming on their final 3 offensive possessions when the game was out of reach. Prior to those final 3 drives the Chippewas were averaging only 3 yards per play on 32 snaps. MSU allowed just 63 yards on the ground which was actually the most they’ve allowed this season! They rank #1 in the nation allowing only 40 YPG on the ground. Dating back to last season they have now held 7 consecutive opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground. Offensively the Spartans have a few injuries heading into their game vs Northwestern. Their top WR Cody White is out with a broken hand and will be for awhile. MSU starting RB LJ Scott missed his 2nd straight game due to a hamstring injury and is questionable again this week.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Surprisingly the road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings outright. The lone home win in this series since 2009 was last year when Northwestern topped MSU 39-31 in OT. That game was tied 17-17 at the end of regulation. The Cats have covered the last 7 times they’ve visited East Lansing and the road team is 12-2 ATS the last 14 meetings. Northwestern is 13-5 ATS the last 18 times they’ve been tabbed a double digit underdog (1-0 ATS this year). This is the 33rd time these two have met since 1980 and MSU has been favored in all but one of those games.

Illinois (-5.5) at Rutgers - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

ILLINOIS – We’re now into October and the Illini finally play a true road game for the first time this Saturday. They come into this one off a bye which gives them an advantage over a Rutgers team that is playing for the 6th consecutive Saturday. Illinois is 2-2 and their most recent game was a 63-24 loss at home to Penn State. For those that did not watch the game, it was much closer than that final score would indicate. PSU led 28-24 entering the fourth quarter and the proceeded to score TD’s on their final 5 offensive possessions. The Illinois offense actually looked fairly decent gaining over 400 yards in the game including 245 on the ground. Their problem on offense has been their inability to generate a consistent passing game. They have thrown for just 5.4 yards per pass attempt over their last two games averaging just 167 yards through the air. Freshman MJ Rivers has been the starter the last two games but the Illini hope to have AJ Bush under center this weekend (hamstring injury) as they look for their first Big Ten win in 23 months!

RUTGERS – The Scarlet Knights finally had a close game, however the outcome was the same and that was another loss. Indiana came into Rutgers as a 17-point favorite and walked away with a tight 24-17 win. It was a game that IU led comfortably 24-7 at half and then decided not to show up after the break. Rutgers kicked a FG with just under 5:00 remaining to cut the lead to 24-17 but never got the ball back as IU ate up the remainder of the clock. The Knights were outgained by 160 yards in the game and they have now been outgained by a combined 1,036 yards in their last four games. The one thing we have noticed is it doesn’t look like this team is giving up just quite yet. They fought hard in the 2nd half despite being down by a large margin at half and made a game of it. The Knights have to look at this as a decent shot at a win. Probably their best remaining shot this season. Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS their last 12 games with at least a week of rest. The Badgers, however, are just 9-17 ATS the last 26 times they’ve been a double digit home favorite (0-3 ATS this year).

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Illinois favored on the road? The Illini have been favored on the road just 17 times since 2002 covering only 6 of those games. Rutgers was favored at Illinois by -1.5 last year and won the game 35-24. A year later they are a dog at home. The road team has been favored each of the last 2 seasons in this match up and they’ve won and covered each. Illinois has won only 8 (outright wins) of their last 46 road games. Rutgers has covered just 43% of the time as a home dog dating back to 1980 (45-59 ATS).

Iowa (-7) at Minnesota (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

IOWA – The Hawkeyes come off a bye after losing at home 28-17 to Wisconsin two weeks ago. The game was played almost dead even stat wise with each team picking up 19 first downs and Wisconsin outgaining Iowa by just 11 yards. Iowa actually led the game 17-14 with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game but the Badgers scored a TD with 57 seconds remaining and another with 22 seconds remaining (after an Iowa interception) for the 11 point margin. The Hawkeyes had their chances in the first half as they were shut out on downs at the UW 5-yard line on their opening drive, made it to the Wisconsin 42 yard line on drive number two, scored a TD on their third possession, and fumbled a punt on their next opportunity. That sent them to half tied at 7-7 but with 216 total yards at the break the Hawkeyes should have had more than one TD on the board. QB Nathan Stanley was averaging just 137 YPG through the air and barely 50% completions after his first two games. He has since stepped up his game big time throwing for 565 yards while completing over 72% of his passes his last two games. Defensively after allowing an average of 209 YPG over their first three games the Hawks gave up nearly double that to the Badgers who had 415 total yards.

MINNESOTA – The Gophs are also off a bye and looking to regroup after a 42-13 blowout loss @ Maryland two Saturdays ago. It was Minnesota’s first road game and they caught the Terps at a bad time coming off an embarrassing loss to Temple as a double digit favorite. The Minnesota defense came into their game @ Maryland having completely shut down their opponents running game over the first three games allowing just 72 YPG. That changed in a big way with Maryland rushing for 315 yards on 8.5 yards per carry. The Terps scored 42 points and only attempted 14 passes the entire game. The Gopher defense gave up big plays all day long as Maryland scored TD’s on plays of 26, 81, 54, 64, and 21 yards. The Minnesota offense also had it’s problems scoring just one TD with freshman QB Zach Annexstad completing only 43% of his passes. This young Gopher team, with over 50% of their roster being freshman, showed they weren’t ready to go on the road and be competitive. We’ll see how they respond back at home after a week off.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Iowa has won 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series and they’ve outgained the Gophers in 6 of the last 7 match ups. Going back further the Hawkeyes are 13-4 SU the last 17 meetings. Going back to 1993, the Gophers are just 8-16-1 ATS their last 25 games vs Iowa. Since 2012, the Hawkeyes have been a road favorite of more than 4 points 8 times. They are 7-1 ATS in those games. Since 2007, the Gophers have been a home dog in Big Ten play 27 times. They are 17-10 ATS in those games.

Indiana at Ohio State (-25) - (FOX, 4:00 p.m. ET)

INDIANA – The Hoosiers come into this game having already played two Big Ten games (1-1 record). They were beaten up two weeks ago at home vs MSU and then bounced back last week and picked up a 24-17 road win @ Rutgers. IU jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead and their 3 TD’s in the opening stanza were on long drives of 88, 75, and 68 yards. After relying mainly on their running game the first three games, the Hoosiers QB Peyton Ramsey has attempted 46 & 40 passes in his two Big Ten games. He’s thrown for 550+ yards in those two games combined with 3 TD’s but also 3 interceptions. The offense was able to gain nearly 300 yards on over 6 YPP in the first half vs Rutgers. However, after halftime they went scoreless on just 150 yards and committed two big turnovers. The defense was decent holding Rutgers to less than 300 yards but that was sort of expected vs a Knights offense that ranks dead last in the Big Ten in total offense & scoring offense.

OHIO STATE – OSU was involved in the best game the Big Ten had to offer last week as they came from behind to top Penn State 27-26 in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions jumped out to a 13-0 lead and still held a 26-14 lead with less than 8:00 minutes remaining in the game. Down 26-21 with just 4:30 remaining in the game and starting at their own 4-yard line, OSU executed their most impressive drive of the season. It was an 8-play, 96-yard TD drive that game the Bucks a 27-26 lead with just over 2:00 minutes remaining in the game. The defense then held PSU on 4th and 5 from the Buckeye 43-yard line to clinch the huge road win. That gives the Buckeyes two 2nd half come from behind wins away from home this season (TCU & PSU). This game was much different than the previous two meetings where each team won a game but OSU dominated the stat sheet. The Buckeyes were a bit fortunate to win this one as Penn State dominated the numbers gaining 492 yards on 66 plays (7.4 YPP) to OSU’s 389 yards on 76 plays (5.1). Nearly half of OSU’s yardage in the game (44% to be exact) came on their final 2 drives. It was just the 2nd time in the last 10 games (dating back to last season) that OSU was outgained in a game.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The Hoosiers have played the Buckeyes very tough over the last 7 seasons. They are 6-1 ATS in those games with OSU only cover coming last year in a 49-21 win as a 21-point favorite. However previous to that run by Indiana, they were 0-9 ATS vs OSU between 1998 – 2010. Since 2000, IU is just 3-18 SU and 8-13 ATS in their 2nd of back to back road games. Surprisingly, the Buckeyes are 18-6-1 ATS the game following their match up with Penn State. The Bucks are 3-0 ATS at home this year as favorites of more than 3 TD’s. However, coming into this season, they were just 5-11 ATS in that role dating back to 2014.

Nebraska at Wisconsin (-17) - (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m. ET)

NEBRASKA – The excitement for Nebraska football coming into the season was through the roof with new head coach Scott Frost injecting new life into a dormant program. That excitement, at least for this season, has now been tempered with the Huskers starting 0-4. They showed some life in their season opener nearly beating Colorado as they arguably outplayed the Buffs in the loss. It’s been downhill since and last week’s home loss to Purdue. The 42-28 setback set two school records notching their 8th straight loss overall and 7th straight home loss. Not the records they wanted to set for sure. The Huskers continue to hurt themselves with mistakes game in and game out. On Saturday they rolled up 30 first downs and 536 yards outgaining the Boilermakers. Nebraska has actually outgained 3 of their 4 opponents on the season. So what’s the deal? They’ve turned the ball over 9 times this year and rank 127th nationally in turnover margin at -1.5 per game. On top of their turnover problems, the Cornhuskers were shut out on downs THREE times in Purdue territory, they missed a FG, and had 136 yards in penalties. If they ever decide to cut back on the mistakes, they could have the makings of a semi-dangerous team.

WISCONSIN – The Badgers had last week off after topping Iowa on the road 28-17 a week earlier. Their win at Iowa put Wisconsin in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten West as they push for their 4th division title in the last 5 seasons. The Badgers are 3-1 with their lone loss coming at home to BYU. They still have all of their season goals in front of them, however this team has some definite flaws. They are young and fairly thin defensively, especially on the defensive line. They are allowing 135 YPG on the ground on 4.4 YPC. Compare that to last season when they allowed 98 YPG on the ground on 3.2 YPC and you can see the drop off. It’s also not as if they’ve played a bunch of great running teams either. They are just thin and young up front. Offensively they came into the season with the anticipation they would have one of their best offenses in team history. They’ve been good but not great. After rolling up numbers on the first two overmatched team they played (Western KY & New Mexico) they averaged just 24.5 PPG over their last 2 games. They have the talent to put up big numbers but they haven’t fully clicked on that side of the ball quite yet. Perhaps it comes this Saturday night vs a Nebraska defense that has allowed 98 points in their last 2 games alone. Wisconsin might be without 2 defensive starters at OLB Andrew Van Ginkel (their top pass rusher) and CB Faion Hicks are working through injuries.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – This line opened Wisconsin -22 and has dropped all the way to -17 as of this writing. Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011, they are just 1-6 SU (2-5 ATS) vs the Badgers. Last year Wisconsin (-12.5) won 38-17 in Lincoln. Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS their last 12 games with at least a week of rest. The Badgers, however, are just 9-17 ATS the last 26 times they’ve been a double digit home favorite (0-3 ATS this year). Since 1980, the Huskers have been a double digit road dog just 14 times. They are 1-13 SU and 7-7 ATS in that spot.

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 6
October 4, 2018
By Joe Williams

2018 ACC STANDINGS

ATLANTIC DIVISION
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 4-1 1-0 3-2 4-1
Clemson 5-0 2-0 1-4 2-3
Florida State 3-2 1-2 1-4 3-2
Louisville 2-3 0-2 1-4 2-3
North Carolina State 4-0 1-0 3-1 2-2
Syracuse 4-1 1-1 4-0-1 2-3
Wake Forest 3-2 0-1 1-4 4-1

COASTAL DIVISION
Duke 4-1 0-1 3-2 3-2
Georgia Tech 2-3 0-2 1-4 3-2
Miami-Florida 4-1 1-0 3-2 4-1
North Carolina 1-3 1-1 1-2-1 3-1
Pittsburgh 2-3 1-1 1-4 2-3
Virginia 3-2 1-1 4-1 3-2
Virginia Tech 3-1 2-0 3-1 2-2

Georgia Tech at Louisville (Fri. - ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
It's amazing, but true. One of these teams will limp out of this game on Friday night with a fourth loss on the season. If they want to become bowl eligible, both will have work to do, starting with this key game on Friday night. The Yellow Jackets have really struggled against the number, going 1-6 ATS in their past seven overall and 1-4-1 ATS in their past six conference tilts. They're also a dismal 0-4-1 ATS in the past five on the road. Louisville isn't much better, going 3-9 ATS in their past 12 at home and 7-17 ATS in the past 24 at home against teams with a losing road record. Both of these teams are also looking to avoid going 0-3 in the conference. It's an important ACC battle, but not how it was expected to be heading into the season.

Syracuse at Pittsburgh (ACC Network, 12:20 p.m. ET)
The Orange nearly pulled off the monumental upset for a second straight season against Clemson, but they fell short in Death Valley last week. 'Cuse have been cover kings this season, going 4-0-1 ATS while hitting in seven of their past eight road games dating back to last season. They're also an impressive 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 conference tilts. Pitt is 5-2 ATS in their past seven ACC contests, and 4-1 ATS in the past five following a straight-up loss, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five overall and 7-17 ATS in their past 24 at home. Syracuse is just 2-5-2 ATS in their past nine against Pitt, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Western Pennsylvania.

The 'under' has been the dominant trend for both sides lately, going 5-1 in Syracuse's past six road games and 20-6-1 in their past 27 overall, including 15-5-1 in the past 21 inside the conference. The under is 8-2 in Pitt's past 10 ACC tilts, while cashing in six of the past seven against winning teams. The under is also 10-3-1 in their past 14 overall, and 5-2-1 in the past eight at Heinz Field. In this series, the under is 5-1 in the past six meetings.

Boston College at North Carolina State (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)
The Eagles head to Carter-Finley Stadium for a key ACC showdown, and one of the more underrated games of the weekend. B.C. had some cold water splashed on their early-season run with a loss in Purdue, but they have been ranked in the Top 25 this season, and could return with a road upset. The only thing that could cool off the Wolfpack was a visit from Hurricane Florence, wiping out a huge out of conference matchup (and potential loss) against West Virginia a few weeks ago. Instead, they're 4-0 SU and in the Top 25 themselves heading into the week.

The Eagles are an impressive 7-0-1 ATS in their past eight conference games, while going 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight against winning teams. They're also a solid 6-1 ATS in the past seven on the road and 11-3-1 ATS in the past 15 games overall. State has also been red-hot against the number, going 4-0 ATS in their past four against winning teams and 4-1 ATS in their past five games overall. The under has dominated this series, going 4-0 in the past four meetings. The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four, too, while the Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in the past five in this series.

Clemson at Wake Forest (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Clemson heads to the Triad favored by 20 points after a near-miss at home against Syracuse a week ago. QB Trevor Lawrence is expected to be back under center after being knocked out of that game against the Orange, leaving Chase Brice to have to save the victory. Neither of these teams have been very good against the number lately. Clemson is 1-5 ATS in the past six overall and 0-4 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning overall mark. The Tigers are also 0-4-1 ATS in the past five games in the month of October. Wake is 4-1 ATS in the past five at home against winning teams and 10-4-1 ATS in their past 15 ACC battles, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five at home and 1-6 ATS in their past seven games. In addition, they have failed to cover in four in a row against winning sides. BB&T Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Tigers, at least against the number, over the years. Clemson is 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine trips to Winston-Salem, and 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. The underdog has cashed in four in a row, with the under 7-3 in the past 10 in the series.

Florida State at Miami-Florida (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Man, FSU and Miami used to mean EVERYTHING. This was THE game back in the 1980's and 1990's, but it has lost a lot of its luster over the years. National championship implications used to be on the line. Now, it's still an important game, and a great rivalry, and Hard Rock Stadium should still be a rare packed house, but with FSU struggling, it isn't as meaningful as the past. Still, Miami has put another feather in their cap as they look to return to the ACC Championship Game for a second straight season. Florida State earned its first conference win against two losses with a win at Louisville last week, but they still have work to do. They're 1-4-2 ATS in the past seven on the road, 1-6-2 ATS in the past nine against winning teams and 0-9-2 ATS in the past 11 inside the ACC. The Canes aren't much better, going 2-6 ATS in the past eight ACC games and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams.

Bettors are likely to kick the tires on the under. The under has hit in seven straight meetings in this series. While the over is 5-1 in Miami's past six, and 4-1 in their past five at home, the under is 8-2 in their past 10 ACC tilts. The under is also 7-3 in Miami's past 10 against winning teams. The under is 7-2-1 in FSU's past 10 on the road and 22-8-1 in the past 31 inside the ACC.

Notre Dame at Virginia Tech (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
It's a primetime battle in Blacksburg with the Irish paying a visit to the Hokies. Notre Dame has playoff aspirations, and can add to their resume with an impressive road win. The Hokies had playoff aspirations, too, until they were derailed in Norfolk two weeks ago by Old Dominion in an amazing upset. Virginia Tech righted the ship at Duke last week with a signature win, but any championship hopes outside of the conference likely sailed away at ODU. still, a win over Notre Dame could vault the Hokies back into the Top 15 neighborhood, perhaps, so who knows.

The Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in the past seven road games, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven away from home against teams with a winning home record. The Hokies have covered 11 of their past 15 at Lane Stadium, while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in their past seven home games against a team with a winning road record. The under has been the prevailing trend for both sides. The under is 7-2 in ND's past nine overall and 6-2 in their past eight against winning sides. The under is 8-1 in Virginia Tech's past nine against winning teams and 6-2-1 in their past nine at Lane Stadium, while going 10-4 in the past 14 overall.

Teams On A Bye
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Best Bets
October 3, 2018
By BetDSI

College Football Best Bets – Week 6

It was another sweep of the board with last week's selections as Louisville and Kansas State were able to cash tickets as home underdogs. Louisville fans were hoping for more as the Cardinals probably should have won that game outright, but I'll take the two cashes as it's now a 6-2 ATS run with these plays the last four weeks.

Hopefully that run can continue here in Week 6, as it's a couple of road teams in essentially pick'em games that I'm hitching my wagon to this week.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #1: Missouri Pick'em

SEC East teams outside of Georgia and Florida don't always get the attention they probably deserve on a week-to-week basis, but this matchup between Missouri and South Carolina should be a good one. Both sides are coming off outright losses in their last outing, but Mizzou had the benefit of having last week off, while South Carolina fell on the road in Kentucky in a game that closed as a pick'em as well. Backing a team off a bye week here is typically not a bad idea, but it's not the only reason I like Missouri in this spot.

To start, this line opened up with Mizzou in the +2 range and all of those plus-money numbers got gobbled up quickly. Considering the betting percentages at VegasInsider.com are basically split right down the middle (51/49) that's a move that can't be ignored. And really, there isn't too much concern about taking a bad number here as the scenario of Missouri covering +2 and not winning the game outright isn't that likely of an outcome.

Furthermore, Missouri is the team that's generally healthier on the whole and have the much better signal caller under center in Drew Lock. Lock was held without a passing TD against Georgia two weeks ago, but he did run one in and the 221 yards he threw for was enough to keep the Bulldogs off-balance to allow Mizzou's RB's to cash in with scores. Oh, and speaking of that Georgia game, if you are one that likes to compare how teams did against common opponents, both Missouri and South Carolina allowed 40+ points in home games against the Bulldogs (43 and 41 respectively), but it was Missouri's offense who managed to put up 29 points while SC topped out at 17.

Lock is a NFL talent at QB and at this level in a game where a lot of other factors are basically even, I'll take the pure talent regardless. Missouri's 40 points per game average is more than enough to get it done here against a South Carolina team that's simply not as good as many thought coming into the year. With Mizzou's 6-1 ATS run in conference play applicable here, I expect the Tigers to hand Will Muschamp and the Gamecocks their third loss in their last four games.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #2: California -2.5

California was a popular underdog pick a week ago as everyone was touting how horrible of a spot it was for Oregon after the blew that game to Stanford the week prior. Well, Cal let all those bettors down with 42-24 defeat and you haven't heard anywhere near the amount of support for them this week. But Arizona has been somewhat of a train wreck during the first month of the Kevin Sumlin era, and after they were a popular home dog play a week ago as well (vs USC), this game has become one that many are passing on simply because they don't want to get burned by either side for the second week in a row.

But this play is all about revenge for me after last year's matchup was a double-OT thriller that saw Cal lose 45-44 because they decided to go for two and couldn't convert. That loss stung this Golden Bears program as they went 1-3 SU the rest of the way when two wins from the Arizona game onwards would have likely had the Bears in a Bowl game. There is no way that Cal has forgotten about that defeat, and considering they've lost this Arizona program by five points or less in the last four meetings, it's time for this much-improved, and much better California team to get theirs in 2018.

California is on a 4-0 ATS run in their last four against a losing team, 5-2 ATS in their last seven Pac-12 games, and won't be turning the ball over five times like they did against Oregon a week ago. That's more than enough to follow the line movement here with this game opening up with California as the underdog – similar to Mizzou from above – as the Golden Bears continue their path on becoming Bowl eligible in 2018 with their 4th victory of the campaign.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 6
October 4, 2018
By BetDSI

CFB Week 6 Total Talk

Late week steam chasers ended up going 1-1 with the two total plays I isolated last week as BYU's offense couldn't get anything done against Washington's defense in a game that stayed 'under' all numbers, while the TCU/Iowa State game could've kept moving lower by two TD's and the 'under' would have still cashed. Admittedly, I did not expect Iowa State's defense to look so good away from home, but that 'under' move was clearly the right side overall.

Furthermore, I was wrong to step in front of that Wake Forest 'over' run (now 5-0 O/U last five) as a 42-3 score at halftime all but killed any shot of cashing an 'under' ticket. The result was confirmed before the end of the 3rd quarter, and those blowout losses are ones I don't mind from time to time. You can quickly put that play behind you, go back and look at what you missed/did wrong and apply that to your handicapping the next time around.

Hopefully that's the case with this week's play, but first we've got to isolate a few of Week 6's early movers:

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Over'

Arizona State vs #21 Colorado: Open: 61.5 – Current: 64

This total has been an interesting one all week because after having an initial spurt up to 62.5 upon opening a point lower, that number hung around for the entire day on Tuesday before bettors woke up on Wednesday to see 64's and 64.5's hanging everywhere. This total even touched as high as 65 before getting some minor pullback to it's current number, but this move makes my list this week because according to VegasInsider.com's current betting percentages, more than 70% of the action on this total has come in on the low side. That's not what you'd think it would be given the line movement through 3+ days this week, so is the majority going to get burned?

To start, Pac 12 games tend to be known for offense and being higher scoring, but a now ranked Colorado team does have a 1-3 O/U record so far in 2018. Their only 'over' came against a FCS team, so it's not like that 'under' support isn't warranted at all. However, that 1-3 O/U record is probably a bit misleading considering the Buffaloes 'unders' have come by 2.5 points, 1 point, and 7.5 points, so a bounce or two here or there would have that number looking much different. That 1-point under also happened because Colorado went for two after scoring the game-winning TD against Nebraska – to put the score at 33-28 – so that they could be up the full seven points, but a failed attempt had 'over' bettors pulling out their hair.

On the ASU side of things, they are 3-2 O/U on the season and are coming off a game where they just hung 52 points on a bad Oregon State team. The Sun Devils aren't likely to approach that number here, especially when you consider they haven't scored more than 21 points in either of their two true road games in 2018, but they aren't exactly scaring anyone with their defense, so if they do want to pull off the upset as small road underdogs, chances are they are going to have to win in a shootout here.

Finally, we've got the recent history between these rivals and it would suggest that it's better to side with the reverse line movement here and look for this game to sail 'over' the number. The past seven meetings between these two programs is just 4-3 O/U overall, but with the eventual winner of those games scoring 40 or more points in six of those contests, plenty of points should be on the menu here.

Arizona State is on a 8-3 O/U run overall (5-2 O/U in Pac 12 play), and are 23-11 O/U after scoring 40+ points as a program. Combine that with Colorado being 4-1 O/U in their last five at home, and if I'm going to play this total it's only the high side I'm looking at. Those bounces that have gone the way of 'under' bettors in Colorado games are going to dry up soon, and taking in all the information I've already outlined (line movement, betting trends, betting percentages), the 'over' is the side that should cash.

Biggest Movers to the 'Under'

Northwestern vs #20 Michigan State: Open: 48 – Current: 43.5

Here we've got another conference rivalry game where the home team is sitting in the 20's in terms of rankings and seeing their total for this matchup take a big swing.

Like the Pac 12's reputation for higher-scoring games, Big 10 contests are known to be lower-scoring, slugfest type affairs. That's definitely how bettors have handicapped this Northwestern/Michigan State game, as it was nothing but under money all week before we've recently seen a minor uptick from 43 to 43.5. But this game opened at 48 on Tuesday, and before many could even sit down for lunch that day we already had 45.5's popping up. As the time/days have gone on, it's clearly been a race to take the 'under' on any number of 45 or higher but with that number long gone, should we still be considering this as a play?

Betting percentages at VegasInsider.com have the action as a virtual split (48/52) so there really is nothing to go on there other than the fact that oddsmakers have really respected this 'under' money all week and can't help but feel like they opened up on a soft number. The last two years these two teams have played and their totals closed at 41 and 41.5 respectively so that's probably playing in the minds of some, especially when last year's game was a 17-17 tie before it was decided in triple-OT with a 39-31 final. 2016's game finished 54-40 in favor of Northwestern, so there is support for why oddsmakers did come out with a high-40's number out of the gate.

However, Michigan State has been sailing 'over' these lower numbers all year long in 2018 with a 3-1 O/U record. The lone 'under' came in the Spartans lone SU loss of the year (vs the aforementioned Arizona State) and it was also on the road. With the Spartans at home and laying -10.5 points, there is a good chance they end up winning this game outright – after all they are in a nice revenge spot – and if everything follows suit for them there, an 'over' may not be too far behind.

So that makes this one tough to bet at the current line unless you are willing to go against the grain and back the high side of this total now. I'm guessing that the original opener of 47.5/48 is going to be a lot sharper of a number than first thought here, and we could easily see this game end up somewhere in the middle of that opener and the current line, meaning you had better have timed the market right. We will see how it plays out on Saturday, but know that if it does indeed land on 44 or 45 points, I'll be having a nice chuckle from the betting sidelines.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Total Bet for Week 5: Boston College/NC State Over 58.5

Everyone knows that BC's strength offensively is on the ground with RB AJ Dillon, but with him listed as a gametime decision for this game, I'm expecting BC to be forced to open things up a bit regardless if he plays or not.

NC State is a team that's scored 30+ in three straight weeks, so Boston College likely doesn't have a choice but to get involved in a scoring fest if they want to win this game. BC has allowed 30+ in three straight weeks so it's not like they can trust their defense to get a stop, so chunk plays will be the goal of the day and hopefully they lead to plenty of points here.

BC/NC State games have been money for 'under' bettors the last four years as it's gone 0-4 O/U with no game finishing with more than 44 points. Heck, the past three meetings haven't had more than 35 total points scored and it's that history that has the majority (75%+) already taking action on the low-side this week.

But the 2018 version of these squads are much different in year's past as both rely on their offenses to do the bulk of the heavy lifting. In BC's case, you can even go back to the first game after playing NC State a year ago where they beat up on UConn 39-16, as that game started a stretch of scoring 30+ in six of their next eight games all the way up until this week.

NC State hasn't scored fewer than 24 points in any of their seven games since last year's BC contest, and with both teams averaging 34.3 points per game or more (BC is at 43.2/game) we should see both sides score in the 30's here.

[StarDust Bum]

college football best bets aug-sept.

total..........185 - 181-0.......50.54%....-64.35

best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

total.....................77 - 72............-11.500...........49 - 40.............+25.00..........126 - 112.......+10.50

PODS............RECORD.............0 - 2....................TOTALS....................... .-11.00

************************

College Football Best Bets For October


Date w-l-t % units record (ALL PLAYS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS )

10/04/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00



best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

10/04/2018............2 - 0...............+10.00.............2 - 0..............+10.00..............+20.00

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 5
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GT at LOU 07:00 PM
LOU +5.5
U 55.0

MTU at MRSH 07:30 PM
MRSH -4.0
O 50.5

USU at BYU 09:00 PM
BYU -1.0
U 55.0

[StarDust Bum]

SEC Notebook - Week 5
October 5, 2018
By Brian Edwards

**Missouri at South Carolina**

-- BetOnline.ag opened South Carolina (2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) as a 1.5-point favorite for Saturday’s SEC home tilt vs. Missouri. Within an hour, BetOnline adjusted the Gamecocks to 2.5-point favorites. Less than an hour later at 5:17 p.m. Eastern, the offshore book had USC down to a one-point ‘chalk.’ Eleven minutes earlier, The Wynn sent USC out as a favorite of 2.5 points. That number wasn’t around long, though, as The Wynn took the line down due to the uncertainty of junior quarterback Jake Bentley’s status (knee). Some books like The Westgate and The Golden Nugget in Vegas refrained from hanging a number until late Tuesday morning on the West coast.

-- South Carolina third-year head coach Will Muschamp informed the media on Tuesday that Bentley was ‘probable’ despite the knee injury that caused him to leave last week’s 24-10 loss at Kentucky. On Wednesday, Muschamp also said WR Bryan Edwards “was good to go” even though he’s dealing with a sore ankle. However, Muschamp backtracked on Bentley after Thursday’s practice and said he’d be a “game-time decision.” Then news surfaced early Friday that back-up Michael Scarnecchia was going to get the starting nod. Scarnecchia, a fifth-year senior who was recruited to USC by Steve Spurrier, has never started a game in his collegiate career. He appeared in his fifth career game at UK last week, completing 4-of-6 passes for 45 yards after Bentley sprained his knee. Scarnecchia threw his first career TD pass during mop-duty in a season-opening victory over Coastal Carolina.

-- As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Missouri installed as a one-point favorite with the total in the 63-64 range.

-- Missouri (3-1 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) has had two weeks to prepare for the Gamecocks, who are 4-2 both SU and ATS in their past six head-to-head meetings with the Tigers. Barry Odom’s team lost 31-21 as a 6.5-point underdog at Williams-Brice Stadium two years ago. Then in Week 2 of last season, Muschamp’s bunch went on the road and captured a 31-13 victory as a three-point underdog.

-- Missouri is led by senior QB Drew Lock, who threw for 3,964 yards and had a 44/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2017. As a true freshman in 2015, Lock hit on 21-of-28 throws for 136 yards and two TDs without an interception to lead the Tigers to a 24-10 home win over USC. Since Muschamp took over, however, his defensive schemes have baffled the signal caller that most draftniks have pegged as an early first-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Lock completed 23-of-40 passes for 302 yards and one TD in 2016, but he was intercepted twice by the Gamecocks. Then last year, Lock connected on only 14-of-32 attempts for one TD and was against picked off twice.

-- On the flip side, Bentley has been sharp in two wins against Missouri. He has completed 40-of-56 passes for 441 yards and three TDs without an interception. Deebo Samuel turned seven touches into 167 all-purpose yards, including a 97-yard kickoff return for a TD and a 25-yard rushing score, in last season’s road win at Missouri.

-- Odom’s team won its first three non-conference games vs. UT-Martin (51-14), vs. Wyoming (40-13) and at Purdue (40-37) on a walk-off field goal. Before taking its open date, the Tigers lost 43-29 to Georgia but covered the number as 14.5-point home underdogs.

-- Many pundits have buried USC and Bentley for two losses by double-digit margins in the first four games. Bentley has undoubtedly struggled in what I thought we be a break-out campaign for the true junior. He has thrown more interceptions (six) in USC’s first three SEC games than he threw in his first seven starts as a 17-year-old true freshman in 2016 (four).

-- South Carolina is looking at its highest total of the season by at least (again, the tally was in the 63-64 range early Friday) 7.5 points since the previous low was 55.5 vs. Coastal Carolina. The ‘under’ has been a winner in six straight games of this rivalry, including last year’s game when the 44 combined points dropped below the 71-point total. Since Muschamp was hired, the highest total USC has seen (besides the 71-point tally last year at Mizzou) has been 58 points. In the 15 games on Muschamp’s watch when the total has been 50 points or more, the ‘under’ has cashed at an 11-4 clip.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on The SEC Network.

**Alabama at Arkansas**

-- As of early Friday, most betting shops had Alabama (5-0 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) listed as a 35-point favorite with a total of 57.5. -- Like we’ve noted in several SEC Notebooks previously, the best way to back ‘Bama this season has been to play the ‘over’ on its teams totals not just for the game, but also for the first quarter and the first half. These (three wagers each time out) bets are now 15-0 for the season, although some bettors might’ve had a hard time locating a team total for the Tide in the first quarter of last week’s home win over UL-Lafayette. Betting ‘Bama in the first quarter and the first half is also an unscathed system to date. These plays are 9-0-1 with the Tide getting a push as a seven-point home favorite in the first quarter of its game vs. Texas A&M two weeks ago (14-7 at the end of 1Q).

-- Alabama covered the number in its first three games, but its have been left extremely disappointed when Nick Saban’s back-ups have allowed backdoor covers in consecutive contests. Trailing 45-16 midway through the fourth quarter, Texas A&M scored a TD to get the money as a 25-point road underdog. Then last week, UL-Lafayette scored a pair of fourth-quarter TDs to cover the spread in a 56-14 loss at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

-- Alabama true sophomore QB Tua Tagovailoa has been nothing short of sensational in his first five career starts. He has connected on 66-of-88 passes (75.0%) for 1,161 yards and 14 TDs without an interception. Tagovailoa has rushed for 115 yards and two TDs on 20 carries for a 5.8 yards-per-carry average. Jalen Hurts, who helped the Crimson Tide to a 26-2 record in 28 starts during the 2016 and ’17 seasons, has 394 passing yards and a 5/1 TD-INT ratio.

-- Alabama sophomore WR Jerry Jeudy is just downright nasty! He reminds me a lot of former Florida WRs Jack Jackson and Jacquez Green from the Steve Suprrier Era. Jeudy has 19 receptions for 423 yards and six TDs. Henry Ruggs III has 19 catches for 296 yards and five TDs.

-- Arkansas (1-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) picked up its first spread cover in last week’s 24-17 loss to Texas A&M as a 20-point underdog. The Razorbacks have lost four in a row SU since beating Eastern Illinois 55-20 in their season opener. They blew a 27-9 late third quarter lead in a 34-27 loss at Colorado State in Week 2. Then in Fayetteville on Sept. 15, North Texas came into town and smashed the Razorbacks 44-17 as a five-point road underdog.

-- Arkansas is 14-11 ATS in 25 games as a home underdog since 2008.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-1 for the Tide, but the ‘under’ was a super-fortunate winner in its lone previous road assignment when the 69 combined points slithered ‘under’ the closing 70-point tally.

-- This will be a noon Eastern kick on ESPN.

**LSU at Florida**

-- As of early Friday afternoon, most books had LSU (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) listed as a two-point favorite with a total of 44.

-- LSU remained unbeaten and hooked up its backers in last week’s 45-16 win over Ole Miss as an 11-point home ‘chalk.’ The 61 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 60-point total thanks to Joe Burrow’s 35-yard TD dash with 2:56 remaining. This space pointed out a few weeks ago how ridiculous we found the national criticism of Burrow. We noted how he clearly and easily passed our ‘eye test’ and that stats never paint an accurate picture of an LSU signal caller. Burrow had his best game in an LSU uniform against the Rebels, hitting on 18-of-25 passes for 292 yards and three TDs without an interception. He also ran for a team-high 96 yards and one TD on nine carries. Justin Jefferson had five receptions for 99 yards and two TDs.

-- Burrow has completed 53.4 percent of his throws for 1,023 yards and six TDs without an interception. He’s also produced 154 rushing yards and a pair of scores. RB Nick Brossette is enjoying a breakout campaign, rushing for 481 yards and six TDs with a 4.7 YPC average. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 275 rushing yards, five TDs and a 4.8 YPC average. Jefferson has caught a team-best 18 balls for 294 yards and two TDs.

-- Florida (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) improved to 2-1 in SEC play with last week’s 13-6 win at Mississippi State as a seven-point road underdog. The Gators hooked up money-line supporters with a payout in the +220 neighborhood. The 19 combined points went ‘under’ the 50-point tally. UF wideout Kadarius Toney, a former QB in high school, found TE Moral Stephens for a 20-yard scoring strike in a double-pass trick play to put his team in front to stay with 8:26 left in the third quarter. UF enjoyed a 20-15 edge in first downs and a 357-202 advantage in total offense.

-- UF’s defense didn’t have star LB David Reese in the team’s first three games due to a sprained ankle and was without CeCe Jefferson in its first two contests (suspension). Since the return of these players, the Gators have been outstanding on the defensive side of the ball. For the season, UF is ranked second in the country in pass defense, 19th in total defense (312.6 YPG) and ninth in scoring ‘D’ (14.0 PPG).

-- Florida’s DEs Jabari Zuniga and Jachai Polite have started to really produce the last couple of weeks. Polite recorded a pair of sacks at Mississippi State to bring his season total to four, which is tied for fifth in the SEC. The junior has 18 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles and two passes broken up. Zuniga has produced 17 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2.5 TFL’s and a pair of QB hurries.

-- Since 2011, the Gators have limped to a 2-5 spread record in seven games as home underdogs.

-- UF third-year sophomore QB Feleipe Franks has produced solid numbers to date. He’s connecting on 57.1 percent of his passes for 961 yards with a 12/3 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for 110 yards and one TD. Franks, a Wakulla HS (Fla.) product, seems to be showing improvement and that’s a credit to Dan Mullen. Franks has all the talent in the world but his decision-making has been suspect in his first two years on the field. We’ll see how he fares against a nasty defense this weekend. I hope I’m wrong but I’m still not buying in on Franks, who I believe is much more likely to make a critical mistake than Burrow.

-- This is a coin-flip game to me and a definite pass. UF has the edge in the head-coaching department, but I give the Tigers the advantage at the QB position. Both teams are extremely talented on defense, but it’s hard to back an ‘under’ in college football that’s in the low 40s.

-- When these teams met last season at The Swamp (thanks again for the back-to-back home games, Joe Alleva), LSU captured a 17-16 victory thanks to a missed PAT by UF in the second half. Gamblers backing Florida were able to cash in, however, as a 1.5-point home ‘dog. The ‘under’ improve to 4-2 in the past six encounters in this rivalry with the 33 combined points dipping below the 42.5-point total.

-- LSU junior LB Devin White is on his way to earning first-team All-American honors. The second-team All-American in 2017 has produced 44 tackles, four TFL’s, three PBU, three QB hurries, one sack, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery with a 29-yard return. Sophomore CB Greedy Williams garnered first-team All-SEC honors when he intercepted six passes as a true freshman last year. Williams has 18 tackles, two picks, two PBU and one QB hurry so far this season.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall LSU, but the ‘under’ cashed in its only road outing. The Tigers have watched their games average combined scores of 48.8 PPG. This is the lowest total they’ve seen this year.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for UF, 2-1 in its home contests. The Gators have seen their games average combined scores of 49.4 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**Vanderbilt at Georgia**

-- As of early Friday afternoon, most spots had Georgia (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) listed as a 26.5-point favorite with a total of 54. With a trip to Baton Rouge on deck (check out the spread for this game in Bonus Nuggets below), this situation here wreaks of a look-ahead game for UGA.

-- Vanderbilt (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) is on the road for just the second time this season. The Commodores completely outplayed Notre Dame in South Bend, but they lost 22-17 due to a missed field goal, a fumble at the goal line and multiple dropped passes on a potential game-winning drive at crunch time. Nevertheless, they hooked up their backers as 14-point underdogs.

-- Vandy has compiled an 11-10 spread record in 21 games as a road underdog during Derek Mason’s five-year tenure. The Commodores are 14-8 ATS with three outright victories when they’ve been ‘dogs of eight points or more on Mason’s watch. The last time here in 2016, former LB Zach Cunningham’s open-field tackle on fourth-and-1 conserved a 17-16 triumph for Vandy at UGA as a 14-point road underdog.

-- Kirby Smart’s club improved to 3-0 in SEC action with last week’s 38-12 non-covering win over Tennessee as a 30.5-point home favorite. UGA had a 26-11 edge in first down and a 441-209 advantage in total offense. However, the Volunteers cut the deficit to 24-12 early in the fourth quarter. UGA would respond with a pair of TDs in the final four minutes, but UT took the cash nonetheless.

-- UGA true sophomore QB Jake Fromm has completed 72.5 percent of his passes for 924 yards with a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Vandy senior QB Kyle Shurmur has a 62.3 completion percentage, 1,231 passing yards and a 9/4 TD-INT ratio. Shurmur’s favorite target is Kalija Lipscomb, who has 43 receptions for 480 yards and six TDs.

-- The ‘under’ started the season 4-0 for the ‘Dores, who saw the ‘over’ appear for the first time in last week’s 31-27 win over Tennessee State as 28-point home ‘chalk.’ The 58 combined points elevated ‘over’ the 51.5-point total.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for UGA, 3-0 in its home outings. The Bulldogs have seen their games average combined scores of 56.2 PPG.

-- This is a 7:30 p.m. Eastern kick on the SEC Network.

**Kentucky at Texas A&M**

-- As of early Friday, most books had Texas A&M (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) installed as a 5.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 50.5. The undefeated Wildcats were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

-- Mark Stoops’s squad is 3-0 in SEC play for the first time since 1997. Kentucky (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) is led by senior RB Benny Snell, a second-team All-SEC choice last year. Snell has run for 664 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC.

-- Wilson, who originally signed with Oregon in 2016 before going the juco route, has hit 62-of-93 pass attempts (66.7%) for 595 yards with a 2/5 TD-INT ratio. He is a dangerous scrambler who has run for 300 yards and three TDs with a 5.8 YPC average. Wilson’s favorite target is Lynn Bowden, who has caught 24 balls for 218 yards and one TD. Wilson hasn’t been forced to do much throwing the ball as UK has done a great job of taking early leads (its seven-point deficit vs. Mississippi St. is its biggest of the year to date). He is most effective this way when the ‘Cats can lean on the ground game (which obviously includes Wilson’s athleticism as well) and not put too much pressure on Wilson to make a lot of throws. It will be interesting to see how he performs when (if?!) UK faces its first double-digit deficit of the season.

-- Kentucky’s defense is led by senior DE Josh Allen, who leads the SEC and is tied for fourth in the nation in sacks with six. Allen has also recorded 33 tackles, 4.5 TFL’s, five QB hurries, two forced fumbles and two PBU.

-- UK is ranked 12th in the nation in total defense and fourth in scoring ‘D,’ allowing only 12.6 PPG.

-- Texas A&M failed to cover in last week’s 24-17 win over Arkansas in Arlington. Junior RB Trayveon Williams led the way with 152 rushing yards and two TDs on 29 carries. Kellen Mond threw for 201 yards, but he had a pair of interceptions and zero TD passes.

-- Mond had been playing well before the trip to Jerry World. For the season, the true sophomore signal caller has connected on 60.1 percent of his passes for 1,221 yards with a 7/4 TD-INT ratio. Mond provides a scrambling dynamic, as evidenced by his 215 rushing yards and four TDs.

-- This is the first meeting between these schools since 1953. The ‘Cats have lost nine road games in a row against SEC West competition.

-- UK owns a 12-11 spread record in 23 games as a road underdog during Stoops’s six-year tenure.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for the Aggies, 2-1 in their three home contests.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for the ‘Cats, 1-0 in their lone previous road assignment (a 27-16 victory at UF).

-- ESPN will provide television coverage from College Station at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Auburn at Mississippi State**

-- As of early Friday, most books had Auburn (4-1 SU, ATS) installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 42. The Bulldogs were +150 to win outright.

-- The only blemish on Auburn’s resume is a 22-21 home loss to LSU on a walk-off FG in Week 3. Gus Malzahn’s club opened the season with a huge 21-16 win over Washington in Atlanta. The Tigers’ defense held the Huskies to three total points on three second-half trips into the red zone. They’ve bounced back from the loss to LSU to win back-to-back home games over Arkansas (34-3) and Southern Miss (24-13). AU failed to cover the spread as a 27-point ‘chalk’ vs. the Golden Eagles, but it did take the money as a 29.5-point favorite against the Razorbacks.

-- This is Auburn’s first true road assignment of the season. During Malzahn’s six-year tenure, Auburn owns a 7-4 spread record in 11 games as a road favorite.

-- Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham has completed 82-of-130 attempts (63.1%) for 963 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. He also has a pair of rushing scores. Junior WR Darius Slayton has 13 receptions for 188 yards and one TD. JaTarvious Whitlow has a team-best 326 rushing yards and four TDs with a 5.3 YPC average.

-- Mississippi State (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) was flying high going into Lexington in Week 4. Since then, however, things have rapidly gone South for MSU, which lost 28-7 at Kentucky and then dropped a 13-6 decision to Florida and ex-coach Dan Mullen as a seven-point home favorite last week. The Bulldogs have managed only 13 points and 403 yards of total offense in the past eight quarters.

-- Senior QB Nick Fitzgerald is struggling mightily and I expect him to be on a short leash Saturday at Scott Field. True sophomore back-up QB Keytaon Thompson played well in the second half of the Egg Bowl last year and then outplayed Lamar Jackson in a Taxslayer Bowl victory over Louisville. When Fitzgerald was suspended for the season opener, Thompson threw for 364 yards and five TDs without an interception in a 63-6 win over Stephen F. Austin. He also rushed 10 times for a team-high 109 yards and two TDs.

-- Fitzgerald is completing just 49.1 percent of his passes for 640 yards with a 4/2 TD-INT ratio. He has run for 318 yards and five TDs while averaging 4.5 YPC. RB Kylin Hill has rushed for 348 yards and three TDs with a 7.7 YPC average.

-- MSU is 2-1 both SU and ATS at home this year. The Bulldogs are 15-10 ATS in 25 games as home underdogs since 2008.

-- Auburn is ranked third in the nation in scoring defense, limiting foes to only 12.6 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for the Tigers, 3-1 overall for the Bulldogs (there was no total in the opener vs SF Austin).

-- ESPN2 will have the broadcast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Here are some upcoming SEC spreads that can be bet right now from 5Dimes.eu:
Georgia -7.5 at LSU
Ole Miss -6 at Arkansas
LSU -6 vs. Mississippi State
Auburn -10 at Ole Miss
Missouri -8.5 vs. Memphis
Alabama -31.5 at Tennesssee
Mississippi State -3.5 vs. Texas A&M
Auburn -8.5 vs. Texas A&M
Alabama -15.5 at LSU
South Carolina -3 at Ole Miss
Alabama -24.5 vs. Mississippi State
LSU -17 at Arkansas
Georgia -11 vs. Auburn
Texas A&M -11.5 vs. Ole Miss
Mississippi State -21 vs. Arkansas
Mississippi State -6 at Ole Miss
Alabama -18 vs. Auburn
LSU pick ‘em at Texas A&M

-- Ole Miss senior safety C.J. Moore is out indefinitely with a pectoral injury. Moore had 51 tackles, three interceptions, 2.5 TFL’s, two PBU and one QB hurry last season. He had 17 tackles, one interception and three PBU through five games this year. The Rebels are already last in the SEC in every defensive category. In fact, they’re 14th in rushing defense with no other SEC team within 37 yards of them, and they’re last in total defense by a margin of 122.8 yards per game compared to the SEC’s 13th team in total ‘D.’ Matt Luke’s club has failed to cover the number in three straight games going into this week’s home date vs. ULM as a 22.5-point favorite.

-- If any team in the league needed an open date this weekend, it was certainly Tennessee. The Vols have this weekend off to prepare for their first trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium in a decade to face Auburn next Saturday.

-- Missouri, Mississippi State and Kentucky have their open dates next weekend.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 Report - Week 6
October 5, 2018
By Joe Williams

2018 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 3-2 1-1 1-3-1 4-1
Iowa State 1-3 0-2 2-2 1-3
Kansas 2-3 0-2 2-3 2-3
Kansas State 2-3 0-2 2-3 1-4
Oklahoma 5-0 2-0 2-3 4-1
Oklahoma State 4-1 1-1 3-2 3-2
Texas 4-1 2-0 2-3 2-3
Texas Christian 3-2 1-1 2-3 2-3
Texas Tech 3-2 1-1 3-2 4-1
West Virginia 4-0 2-0 4-0 2-2

Texas vs. Oklahoma from Dallas, Texas (FOX, 12:00 p.m.)

Kansas at West Virginia (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)
The Jayhawks have already accomplished something they haven't since the 2014-15 season -- beat at least two FBS opponents. Kansas enters the game just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 conference games, and they're 15-36-1 ATS in the past 52 road outings. They're also just 6-20 ATS in the past 26 road outings against a team with a winning home mark. For West Virginia, they have covered each of their four games this season, but they're just 6-15 ATS in their past 21 games in the month of October and 1-4 ATS in the past five home games against a team with a losing road record. Kansas has covered four of the past five in this series.

Iowa State at Oklahoma State (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
The Cyclones enter this game with a losing overall record, but they have been hot against the number. I-State is 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine on the road, while going an impressive 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 games against teams with a winning overall record. Inside the conference they have covered 19-6-1 ATS in the past 26 Big 12 battles, while going 20-6-1 ATs in their past 27 overall. OK State is an impressive 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a losing record, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall. The Cowboys are also 29-11 ATS in the past 40 home games against teams with a losing road record. In this series, however, the home team is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 battles, the favorite is 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings and Iowa State is 1-4 ATS in the past trips to Stillwater.

Kansas State at Baylor (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)
The Wildcats head to Waco looking to take care of the Bears and square their overall record at 3-3. K-State has posted an impressive 19-8-1 ATS mark across their past 28 road games against teams with a winning home record, but they're 0-5 ATS across the past five following a cover their last time out. Baylor is just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five overall and 2-5 ATS in the past seven in the month of October. In addition, Baylor is is just 2-9-1 ATS in their past 12 games against teams with a losing record while going 1-5 ATS in the past six home games. In this series, the underdog has cashed in seven of the past eight meetings with the home team going 5-2 ATS over the past seven. The under is also 4-1 in the previous five between these two schools.

Teams On A Bye
Texas Christian, Texas Tech

[StarDust Bum]

Marshall, Georgia Tech run all over Louisville 66-31
October 5, 2018
By The Associated Press

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) TaQuon Marshall ran for 175 yards and two scores to lead Georgia Tech to a 66-31 victory over Louisville on Friday night.

The Yellow Jackets (3-3, 1-2 Atlantic Coast Conference) ran for a season-high 542 yards, the third-best total in school history and the second most ever yielded by the Cardinals (2-4, 0-3). Tobias Oliver, who relieved Marshall at quarterback late in the third quarter, ran for 108 yards and two scores on eight carries.

In their first nine drives, the Yellow Jackets scored eight touchdowns and a field goal. Then they got a 95-yard interception return for a score from Juanyeh Thomas with 2:18 left.

The 10th drive ended the game.

''Everybody did a tremendous job playing super hard from the start to the finish,'' Marshall said. ''I thought the guys up front blocked very well. The guys on the perimeter did a great job blocking for each other. Overall, I thought it was really different. Everybody was really locked in coming from the hotel. I could just tell how focused everybody was. It was a different energy we had coming into this one.''

Louisville coach Bobby Petrino said his team knew what to expect from the triple-option attack.

''We didn't have any answers for their offense,'' he said. ''They did a good job executing. They ran the fullback, the quarterback, the pitch guy, and we weren't able to get it stopped.''

Georgia Tech took advantage of a couple Louisville misplays to jump out to a 14-0 lead midway through the first quarter. The Cardinals turned the ball over on downs at midfield on their first drive, and five plays later, Marshall's 33-yard score gave Georgia Tech the lead less than five minutes into the game.

Louisville fumbled at its 36 on the second play of its second drive. Five plays later, Marshall's 1-yard run doubled Georgia Tech's lead.

Jawon Pass completed 23 of 35 passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Cardinals.

THE TAKEAWAY

Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets' win was big for more reasons than just the score. Not only did Georgia Tech break a three-game conference losing streak, but the win also marked its first away from home in nearly two years. The Yellow Jackets beat Kentucky in the 2016 TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida, on Dec. 31, 2016.

Louisville: A bad season only looks to get worse for the Cardinals. Playing against a team that had lost its last three conference games, Louisville posted its worst home loss in the 20-year history of Cardinal Stadium and gave up the most points by a Petrino-led Cardinals squad.

UP NEXT

Georgia Tech: Returns home to face Duke in an ACC Coastal Division clash next Saturday.

Louisville: Travels to Boston College next Saturday for an ACC Atlantic Division contest.


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Middle Tennessee's Stockstill hits 10,000 mark in 34-24 win
October 5, 2018

HUNTINGTON, W.Va. (AP) Brent Stockstill threw for 317 yards and two scores, going over 10,000 career yards passing, and Middle Tennessee beat Marshall 34-24 on Friday night.

Stockstill, who also ran for a score, became the 24th player in NCAA history to pass for 10,000 yards. He has thrown a touchdown pass in 28 straight games, the second-longest active streak behind Penn State's Trace McSorley (33). The redshirt senior, who missed nine games over the past two seasons with injuries, hadn't faced the Thundering Herd (3-2, 1-1 Conference USA) since 2015, a triple-overtime win in which Stockstill threw for 353 yards.

The Blue Raiders (3-2, 2-0), coming off a 25-24 victory over defending C-USA champ Florida Atlantic, won in Huntington for the first time after four losses there.

Marshall scored with 17 seconds left in the second quarter to take a 17-10 halftime lead. Middle Tennessee tied the game on Stockstill's 2-yard pass to Patrick Smith then went ahead on Tavares Thomas' 8-yard run with two minutes left in the third quarter. Thomas also caught a TD pass.

Marshall's Tyler King rushed for a career-high 165 yards, 138 in the first half.


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Utah St. 45, Byu 20