Cnotes 2018 College Football Thru The Bowl Games News- Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

No. 7 Oklahoma pieces together running game without Anderson
October 1, 2018
By The Associated Press

NORMAN, Okla. (AP) Oklahoma has pieced together a solid running game in Rodney Anderson's absence.

Anderson, one of the nation's best running backs the second half of last season, suffered a season-ending knee injury against UCLA. In the three games since, the seventh-ranked Sooners have averaged 178.7 yards rushing per game and 5.6 yards per carry. It's not quite the dominance the Sooners became accustomed to in recent years when Anderson, Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon seemingly plowed through opponents at will.

It has been enough to provide balance for quarterback Kyler Murray and keep Oklahoma's offense among the nation's most productive heading into Saturday's game against No. 19 Texas.

''That's what we have to continue to do,'' Oklahoma co-offensive coordinator Cale Gundy said. ''We've got the guys to do it.''

Trey Sermon is Oklahoma's rushing leader with 294 yards. The sophomore ran for 74 yards against Iowa State, then a season-high 119 against Army. He's rushed for just over 1,000 yards in his career.

Coach Lincoln Riley hasn't committed to giving Sermon the primary workload long term. Freshman T.J. Pledger has been playing early in games and Kennedy Brooks had 107 yards and two touchdowns during Saturday's 66-33 win over Baylor .

''Those other guys are talented, too,'' Riley said after Anderson's injury. ''We're excited about them getting their opportunities and see what they do.''

Murray has helped the Sooners remain productive in the ground game. He ran for 77 yards against Iowa State, 71 yards against Army and 45 against Baylor. He's second on the team with 285 yards rushing.

Brooks has had few opportunities in games because of depth at the position. He has rushed for 158 yards and three touchdowns on just 12 carries this season.

''He's been doing that since he's got here,'' Murray said. ''I think everybody has known what he was capable of, but nobody's seen it yet. I think it was a good step for him this past Saturday, getting out there and getting his feet wet. Two touchdowns, he ran well. I think everybody got to see that. So definitely a confidence booster for him and I think that whole room.''

Gundy said the blocking still has room to improve. Most of Oklahoma's rushing damage against Baylor, aside from Murray's yardage, came late in the game with the Sooners firmly in control. They'll have to do better against a Texas defense that allows just 115 yards rushing per game.

''We felt like we could play better on the offensive line than we did Saturday,'' Gundy said. ''You've got to understand there was a lot of pressure Saturday, a lot of inside pressure challenging you to get the ball to the outside. When you're trying to run against a lot of those blitz looks, it can be very difficult.''

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Louisville seeks 1st ACC win in Week 6
October 2, 2018
By The Associated Press

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) Louisville coach Bobby Petrino wants his struggling team to focus on the next opponent rather than looking toward bigger goals such as a ninth consecutive postseason appearance.

An opportunity looms for the Cardinals on Friday night against Georgia Tech in an inaugural matchup of teams seeking their first Atlantic Coast Conference victory. That's still a tall order for the Cardinals (2-3, 0-2) after giving one away to Florida State, making bowl eligibility even more challenging with No. 4 Clemson among their upcoming opponents.

''What we need to focus on is Georgia Tech and one practice,'' Petrino said Monday. ''I think that's the biggest thing, to play one game at a time and work on improvement.''

The Cardinals face an uphill climb in many phases after Saturday's devastating 28-24 home loss to the Seminoles .

Besides dropping to the Atlantic Division cellar, Louisville remains winless against Power Five opponents. It needed second-half rallies to beat Conference USA Western Kentucky and FCS-level Indiana State.

The Cardinals appeared headed toward a critical win with a first down at the FSU 21 and a three-point lead with under two minutes remaining. Quarterback Jawon Pass was intercepted on the next play and FSU converted it into the winning TD, a stunning turn that has resulted in second-guessing of Petrino's play-calling on local sports talk radio.

The fifth-year coach said that in retrospect, he'd run the ball to ''make it easy,'' but suggested that passing was the right call in that situation because the play had worked earlier.

''I've always felt that way that when you have to make a call and it does work out, it's a good call,'' Petrino said. ''When it doesn't, it's a bad call and throughout the game you have those situations. This one became a big turnover, so it ended up being a real bad call.''

Already in a season defined by moving on, Louisville now must put that disappointing outcome in its rear view.

Transition was expected with the departures of 2016 Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Lamar Jackson and other contributors on both sides of the ball, along with the hiring of a third defensive coordinator in as many years (Brian VanGorder). Injuries to defensive veterans such as linebacker Jonathan Greenard have forced underclassmen into action for Louisville, which ranks in the bottom half of several ACC categories.

The offense, meanwhile, ranks last in the ACC in total offense (311.6 yards per game) and scoring (18.4 points), while Petrino's shuffling of his quarterbacks has drawn additional scrutiny. However, Pass - who was yanked against Indiana State and Western Kentucky for Malik Cunningham before he finished a 27-3 ACC loss at Virginia in relief - appears to have reclaimed the job after throwing for a career-best 306 yards and two TDs against Florida State before his costly interception.

Louisville is still trying to find a primary rusher, though Petrino acknowledged, ''We did make some improvements.''

Something must give for the Cardinals with a short week to prepare for their meeting against the Yellow Jackets (2-3, 0-2). Louisville then travels to Boston College on Oct. 13 and hosts Wake Forest on Oct. 27 before visiting defending ACC champion Clemson on Nov. 4. All three beat the Cardinals last season with Jackson at QB.

Having overcome a 0-3 start in 2015, the Cardinals believe they can become bowl eligible. Right now, they just need to have a short memory.

''When you go to sleep and wake up the next day, it's a new day,'' wide receiver Jaylen Smith said after the game. ''The sun is going to shine tomorrow, I promise. You take that and wear it. Then you come out and do the same thing this week with preparation and hope for a better outcome.''

[StarDust Bum]

college football best bets aug-sept.


Date w-l-t % units record (ALL PLAYS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS )

09/29/2018 31-38-0 44.92% -53.00
09/28/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
09/27/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/22/2018 31-36-1 46.27% -43.00
09/21/2018 4-2-0 66.67% +9.00
09/20/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/15/2018 35-26-1 57.38% +32.00
09/14/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/08/2018 31-37-2 45.59% -48.50
09/07/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/02/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/01/2018 30-22-0 57.69% +29.00
08/31/2018 4-8-0 33.33% -24.00
08/30/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
08/25/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00


total..........185 - 181-0.......50.54%....-64.35


best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

09/29/2018............12 - 19...........-44.50...............8 - 6..............+7.00..............20 - 25......39.50
09/28/2018.............2 - 0.............+10.00..............1 - 1...............-0.50...............3 - 1.........+9.50
09/27/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00...............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/22/2018............15 - 12...........+9.00...............5 - 10.............-30.00............20 - 22.......-21.00
09/21/2018.............3 - 0.............+15.00..............1 - 2...............-6.00...............4 - 2.........+9.00
09/20/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50................0 - 1...............-5.50...............0 - 2.........-11.00
09/15/2018.............11 - 13..........-16.50...............7 - 6..............+2.00.............18 - 19.......-14.50
09/14/2018.............1 - 0.............+5.00................1 - 0..............+5.00..............2 - 0.........+10.00
09/13/2018.............1 - 0.............+5.00................0 - 1 ..........-5.50...............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/08/2018............13 - 14...........-12.00..............12 - 5.............+32.50............25 - 19......+20.50
09/07/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50................0 - 1...............-5.50...............0 - 2........-11.00
09/03/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50................1 - 0...............+5.00..............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/02/2018.............1 - 0..............+5.00...............1 - 0...............+5.00..............2 - 0........ +10.00
09/01/2018............13 - 6.............+32.00.............5 - 2...............+14.00............18 - 8.......+46.00
08/31/2018.............1 - 3..............-11.50..............2 - 4...............-12.00..............3 - 7.........-23.50
08/30/2018.............2 - 1..............+4.50...............2 -1...............+4.50...............4 - 2.........+9.00
08/25/2018.............2 - 0..............+10.00.............2 - 0..............+10.00..............4 - 0........+20.00


total.....................77 - 72............-11.500...........49 - 40.............+25.00..........126 - 112.......+10.50


PODS............RECORD.............0 - 2....................TOTALS....................... .-11.00

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s six-pack

Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

— Arizona is 2-8 in its last ten games as road underdogs.

— Denver is 2-13-1 vs spread in its last 16 games.

— Detroit covered six of its last eight games.

— Cleveland is 4-12 in its last 16 games as home underdogs.

— Ravens are 13-4 vs spread in their last 17 divisional games.

— Green Bay is 10-5 in its last 15 games as divisional road favorites.

Quote of the Day
“I don’t like having to worry about that. Now Week 4 every year is going to be the trade deadline, and everyone is going to make decisions. I don’t like that part of it. When you commit to a school, when you commit to a team, that’s your team, right?

It’s what’s best for him (Bryant). It’s kind of like, when you have a brother, and he makes a bad decision, you love him. Not that it was necessarily a bad decision, but just one you wouldn’t make yourself. But I’m not him, and I’m not here every day in his shoes.”
Clemson WR Hunter Renfrow, on QB Kelly Bryant transferring

Wednesday’s quiz
Who was Lebron James’ first coach in the NBA?
(Hint: He was also a very good player, playing for five teams)

Tuesday’s quiz
Colts’ kicker Adam Viniatieri played for NFL Europe’s Amsterdam Admirals, in 1996.

Monday’s quiz
Tom Brady tied an NFL record Sunday, throwing a TD pass to his 70th receiver; he shares this record with Vinny Testaverde.


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Wednesday’s List of 13: In praise of these A’s……..

13) Last three years, Oakland A’s finished last in AL West, winning 68-69-75 games.

A’s have the lowest payroll in the major leagues, but they made the playoffs this season, going 97-65, something no one thought possible back in the spring. Great managing job by Bob Melvin; this is 4th time in last seven years Oakland is in the playoffs, but first time since 2014.

How they’ve gotten to this point is really pretty amazing.

12) Oakland has used 53 players this season, 33 of them pitchers.

Their two best starting pitchers right now are Mike Fiers and Edwin Jackson; Fiers’ first game with the A’s was August 8, Jackson’s first game was June 25. Jackson is pitching for his 13th major league team.

11) Kendall Graveman was Oakland’s Opening Day starter; he lasted until May 11 before he blew his arm out.

Sean Manaea pitched a no-hitter against Boston, but he got hurt August 24 and is done until 2020. A’s went 16-11 in Manaea’s starts this year- they acquired him in the Ben Zobrist trade when Kansas City made their World Series run in 2015.

Gossett, Triggs, Montas, Blackburn started a combined 31 games; A’s went 17-14 in those games.

10) February 12, 2016, the A’s traded two minor leaguers to Milwaukee for Khris Davis, who has gone on to hit 133 homers, knock in 335 runs. Pretty good trade.

One of the minor leaguers, Jacob Nottingham, has appeared in nine major league games. Davis is mostly a DH, so he wouldn’t have done Milwaukee much good, but a damn good trade.

9) On March 12, 2018, Oakland signed C Jonathan Lucroy, giving their pitchers/defenses an anchor, the team a leader. Lucroy hasn’t hit much, but this will be his third straight year in the playoffs (Texas 2016, Colorado 2017). His acquisition was huge for the A’s.

8) Ramon Laureano is a 24-year old OF who hit .227 in the AA Texas League LY; when you hit .227 in the hitter-friendly Texas League, it is usually time to start looking for a new career, but since making his Oakland debut August 3, Laureano has an on-base% of .364, is a terrific CF with a great arm- he doubled a runner off first base in Anaheim with a throw that went 107 yards in the air!!!!

A’s got him from Houston in a trade for a pitcher who went 5-8 in A ball this year.

7) When they make Moneyball 2, the story of Stephen Piscotty’s family will be front/center. St Louis was going to trade Piscotty last winter, but his mother had Alzheimer’s and he wanted to be close to her in her final months, so Piscotty asked to be traded to the A’s or Giants.

Last December, he got traded to Oakland and has hit 27 homers with 88 RBI, many of them in key spots. Quite a story.

6) Last July, the A’s were awful and Washington needed bullpen help to make the playoffs, so Oakland dealt Doolittle/Madson to Washington for Blake Treinen and two minor leaguers (one of whom is Jesus Luzardo, a big prospect).

Treinen has turned into one of the best closers this season, with 38 saves. Luzardo is expected to be a star down the road.

5) 41-year old Fernando Rodney (acquired August 9) and Jeurys Familia (July 21) pitch the 7th and 8th innings if the A’s are winning. When your starting pitchers are mostly all hurt and have a hard time finishing six innings, you load up on relievers and hope the starting pitcher gets 15 outs. Lou Trivino pitched the 6th inning most of the season, when needed.

4) Oakland’s infielders are very good; a pair of Matts, Chapman/Olson are young corner infielders who appear headed for stardom. Chapman and Nolan Arenado and the two best defensive 3B in the major leagues right now.

Marcus Semien/Jed Lowrie give the A’s solid defense up the middle and timely hitting- Lowrie knocked in 99 runs. It is so unusual for a playoff team to have starting pitching being the weakest part of the team.

3) On June 5, the A’s lost 6-4 to the Angels, dropping them to 34-36; since then, Oakland is 63-29, the best record in MLB during that time. An astounding turnaround.

2) Bob Melvin managed the Mariners for two years, Arizona for five; this is his 8th year with Oakland, his hometown team. Can’t imagine why he got fired from the other places; he is calm, smart and guys play their butts off for him, otherwise a 34-36 team wouldn’t go on a 62-27 run. Excellent manager.

1) This is the 50th anniversary of the A’s first season in Oakland, after they moved west from Kansas City. It has been a great season for these guys; hopefully it’ll last another month or so

[StarDust Bum]

DILLION ON THE MEND

One of the top rushers in the nation is hoping to return to action this week. Boston College sophomore, A.J. Dillon's status is up in the air after he rolled his ankle early in the third quarter of last weekend's 45-35 victory over Temple and didn't return. Head coach Steve Addazio had no update for reporters Monday, but Dillon was headed for a historic game at the time of his injury, having racked up 161 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 28 carries to that point. Dillon enters Week 6 ranked third in the nation in rushing yards (652), putting him on pace to blow past the 1,589 rushing yards he put up as a freshman.

Bettors should monitor Dillon's progress throughout the week as the Eagles prepare to visit N.C. State. If he misses the game or is hobbled going into the weekend, the Wolfpack suddenly become a terrific cover option; they're -4 as of Tuesday.


LAWRENCE BATTLING A NECK STRAIN

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence has one more ailment to deal with as the Tigers prepare for Saturday's showdown with Wake Forest. In addition to being placed in the concussion protocol, Lawrence is recovering from a neck strain; both injuries were suffered on the same play, one that knocked Lawrence from the game in Clemson's come-from-behind 27-23 win over Syracuse. Lawrence will need to get clearance for the concussion before he can return to practice. Chase Brice, who led the Tigers' late rally against the Orange, would get the start if Lawrence isn't able to return in time.

More quarterback uncertainty could be a problem for Clemson, which has gone just 1-4 ATS on the season and very nearly lost outright at home to Syracuse. Wake Forest is getting 17 points at home, and that number might climb if Lawrence is delayed in his return to practice; the Demon Deacons fell 28-14 to Clemson in last year's meeting.


GANGI OUT FOR NEVADA?

The Nevada Wolf Pack could be without their starting quarterback for Saturday's pivotal Mountain West showdown with visiting Fresno State. Ty Gangi suffered a leg injury in last week's 28-25 triumph over Air Force and missed Monday's practice as a result. Head coach Jay Norvell has suggested that Gangi won't return to the field Tuesday, either. Gangi has been the lynch pin for a Wolf Pack pass offense ranked in the Top 30 in yards per game, having completed nearly 73 percent of his passes for 1,338 yards with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. He finished with four TD tosses in the win over Air Force.

The downgrade from Gangi to No. 2 option Cristian Solano is significant enough for us to recommend taking Fresno State -12 if Gangi can't go. His absence would also impact Nevada's shot at reaching its team total, which sits at ~24 points as of Tuesday.


NORTHWESTERN ABOUT TO BE GROUNDED

It could be a long, difficult day for Northwestern running backs Saturday as the Wildcats visit the Michigan State Spartans. The Northwestern rush attack has been dismal through the first four games of the season; the Wildcats rank 122nd out of 129 Division I schools in average yards on the ground (94.8) and are one of only 10 programs not averaging triple digits. That mark isn't likely to improve this weekend at Spartan Stadium, with Michigan State having held foes to just 161 rushing yards on 108 carries – good for a microscopic 1.49 yards per attempt. Their 40.3 rushing yards allowed per game is the fewest in the nation.

Granted, the Wildcats had just 64 yards on 28 carries (2.3 YPC) in last year's encounter and still pulled out a 39-31 overtime win. But a similar showing Saturday at Spartan Stadium would make the home side an attractive cover option at -11.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Tulsa at Houston
Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a West division battle between Tulsa and Houston.

The Golden Hurricane fared poorly on Thursday night two weeks ago in their first conference game while this is the AAC opener for Houston. Here is a look at Thursday’s game to start college football Week 6.

Match-up: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars
Venue: At TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, October 4, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Houston -18, Over/Under 68½
Last Meeting: 2017, at Tulsa (+14) 45, Houston 17

Houston won the inaugural AAC Championship game in 2015 and grabbed headlines nationally in 2016 with a pair of high profile upsets. That success let to Tom Herman being hired in Austin and last season former Texas quarterback Major Applewhite guided Houston to a 7-5 record in his first season as head coach.

Four of the five losses for Houston came in single score games but the one exception was a blowout loss at Tulsa, losing by 28 as a two-touchdown favorite. This season Houston is 3-1 with a notable win over Arizona while the loss came by 14 at Texas Tech. This will be the first game of the AAC season for the Cougars who figure to be the favorites in the West division with last season’s champion Memphis already 0-2 in league play.

Houston struggled to find a quarterback early last season but D’Eriq King emerged in late October, keying the upset over South Florida and finishing the season with solid results in the air and on the ground. Now a junior King has rushed less successfully and has a lower completion rate than last season but with 15 touchdowns and just one interception he has been a great leader with the offense scoring at least 45 points in every game.

Houston has rushed for over 1,000 yards in four games on 6.4 yards per carry with a committee approach as Patrick Carr leads the team with only 201 rushing yards and King leads the team with five rushing touchdowns.

Houston also has one of the highest profile defensive players in the nation with Ed Oliver a projected 1st round NFL pick next spring. Houston hasn’t had great defensive numbers this season allowing over 30 points per game after surrendering fewer than 24 points per game last season.

After a two-win 2017 season, Tulsa is expected to be an improved team with a shot at making the postseason. The 1-3 start has featured three losses in a row all against quality competition falling to Texas, Arkansas State, and opening the conference season with a 31-17 loss at Temple two weeks ago. Tulsa out-gained Temple by more than 100 yards in that game but had five turnovers including allowing two defensive touchdowns.

Luke Skipper split time at quarterback last season and has led the offense in all four games this year. He has marginal numbers with six interceptions and just 6.2 yards per attempt. Chad President is still on the roster but has only seen a few snaps this season after sharing the load last season for Philip Montgomery, in his fourth season as the head coach at Tulsa.

Montgomery led Tulsa to a bowl game in his first season and then produced a 10-win 2016 season before reversing course last year. Montgomery was an assistant at Houston from 2003 to 2007 before being the offensive coordinator at Baylor from 2008 to 2014 as a long-time assistant to Art Briles.

Houston is on the road the next two weeks making this home date an important one looking to take the division lead with only SMU and Tulane currently in the AAC West without a conference loss. Both of those teams are underdogs this week and will face off the following week as Houston is in a great position to move to the top of the standings.

Without producing an upset in the first month Tulsa could find itself needing a spectacular late season to reach six wins and earn a bowl bid. A 1-6 start looks realistic at this point hosting South Florida next week before a non-conference game at Arkansas. Road games at Memphis and at Navy will still be waiting in November as while Tulsa looked like a team that could take a positive step forward this season the path looks challenging. Upsetting Houston this week could change that trajectory.

Last season: Houston was 4-1 heading to Tulsa with the Hurricane 1-5 at the time and coming off a 62-28 loss at Tulane. It wasn’t a surprise when the Cougars took a 10-0 early lead but out of halftime Tulsa was a different team, feeding off of a big turnover to produce 17 points in the third quarter. Houston would get back within seven before Skipper hit a 70 yard pass play to seal the win for the Hurricane. Tulsa added two touchdowns in the final minute for a more convincing result than they deserved and it may be something the Houston players remember.

Historical Trends:

Houston is on a 42-31-1 run in home games since 2006 including a 6-2 ATS start under Applewhite including 3-0 as a double-digit home favorite.

Tulsa has covered in six of the past eight meetings between these schools going back to 2009 including covering in each of the last four meetings in Houston.

Tulsa is on a 22-11 ATS run as a double-digit underdog since 2010 with seven S/U upsets, going 12-4 ATS in that role since 2015 under Montgomery.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 4

TULSA at HOUSTON...Tulsa has covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 in series, though neither of these sides have been too reliable lately, as UH just 9-15-1 last 25 on board and Hurricane 6-10 last 16. Tulsa is 10-4 as visiting dog for Montgomery.
Slight to Tulsa, based on series trends.


GEORGIA STATE at TROY...Ga State just 2-6-1 vs. spread last 9 in reg. season. Once-solid road dog mark taking some hits, 0-2 in role already TY. Troy only 2-5 as home chalk LY but has won and covered last 3 in 2018.
Troy, based on recent trends.


Friday, Oct. 5

MTSU at MARSHALL...MTSU 1-6 vs. spread last seven as visitor. Herd has won and covered big last two years in series and 3-0-1 vs. line last four meetings.
Marshall, based on series trends.


GEORGIA TECH at LOUISVILLE...‘Ville 6-16 last 22 on board. Petrino 2-4 last five as dog. Paul Johnson 1-4 vs. line TY but is 12-7-1 last 20 overall vs. spread.
Slight to Georgia Tech, based on ‘Ville negatives.


UTAH STATE at BYU...Utags 3-0-1 vs. line TY and beat BYU in 2017. Utags 1-0 as road dog TY but were 3-6 in role preceding two years. Sitake just 2-6 last 8 as chalk (0-1 TY).
Slight to Utah State, based on team trends.


Saturday, Oct. 6

SOUTH ALABAMA at GEORGIA SOUTHERN...Eagles surprising 4-0 vs. line TY and 6-1 last seven vs. spread since last 2017.
Georgia Southern, based on recent trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at UMASS...Mass just 2-5 as home dog since 2016. Charlie Strong only 2-4 as chalk away from Tampa since LY, also no covers last 7 laying DD.
Slight to UMass, based on team trends.


CLEMSON at WAKE FOREST...Dave Clawson 4-0 vs. line against Dabo since arriving at Wake. Deacs were 10-2-1 last two years as dog (0-2 TY). Clemson just 1-4 vs. line TY.
Slight to Wake Forest, based on team trends.


EAST CAROLINA at TEMPLE...ECU 8-19-1 vs. line for Montgomery since 2016. ECU 2-8-1 as rod dog since 2016. Owls 31-15 last 46 on board, though Collins 0-3 as DD chalk.
Temple, based on team trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BALL STATE...NIU has won last 9 SU and covered last 6 vs. Ball. Huskies destroyed Cards 63-17 LY. But NIU no covers last five away from DeKalb. Ball just 4-10 vs. spread last 14 at Muncie.
NIU, based on series trends.


SYRACUSE at PITTSBURGH...Cuse 4-0-1 vs. line TY. Babers 7-1 vs. spread last seven away, on 7-0-1 spread uptick since late 2017. Pitt 7-16 vs. line at Heinz Field since Narduzzi arrived in 2015.
Syracuse, based on team trends.


SMU at UCF... SMU has covered last two for Sonny Dykes, but Mustangs only 2-6-1 vs. line last nine away from Dallas.
Central Florida, based on team trends.


ODU at FAU...FAU 9-0 SU and 7-2 vs. line against C-USA in 2017, though he's 0-5 vs. line to open 2018. ODU had dropped five in a row vs. line prior to VPI upset. Monarchs 4-9 vs. spread as road dog since 2015.
FAU, based on team trends.


INDIANA at OHIO STATE...Tom Allen 0-3 as visiting dog for IU LY, also 0-3 as DD dog, and Hoosiers also 2-6 vs. spread last eight as visitor. Bucks 3-0 vs. line as home DD chalk TY, but just 1-6 vs. line last 7 vs. IU!
Slight to Indiana, based on series trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at NC STATE...BC has covered 4 of last 5 in series, including SU wins last two as dog at Raleigh. Wolfpack 2-6 vs. spread last seven as home chalk. Eagles 10-3-1 as visiting dog since 2014.
Boston College, based on team and series trends.


LSU at FLORIDA...LSU has covered last five as a visitor and Coach O is 10-2 vs. spread last 12 away from Baton Rouge. But Dan Mullen covered last four years vs. LSU while at Miss State. If dog here note Mullen 14-7 in role past four+ years with MSU & Florida.
Slight to Florida, based on Mullen trends.


MISSOURI at SOUTH CAROLINA...Muschamp has won and covered last two years in series. Barry Odom, however, 4-1 last five as dog. Cocks only 3-4 last seven as Williams-Brice chalk.
Slight to Mizzou, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at MICHIGAN...Harbaugh just 2-6 vs. line last 8 at Ann Arbor though he has destroyed Terps last three years, winning and covering all three. Maryland 3-1 vs. line in 2018 (1-0 as dog).
Slight to Michigan, based on series trends.


TULANE at CINCINNATI... Willie Fritz 6-3 last nine as dog after Memphis upset, also 12-6 last 18 overall vs. line. Cincy only 2-6 as Nippert chalk since 2016 (1-1 TY).
Tulane, based on team trends.


OHIO at KENT STATE...Solich 10-3 vs. spread last 13 as visitor, 5-2 last seven as chalk away from Athens. Solich has won and covered last four vs. Kent State. Golden Flashes just 3-6 vs. spread last 9 as Dix Stadium.
Solich and Ohio, based on team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at WESTERN MICHIGAN...EMU now 14-2-1 last 17 as dog away from Ypsilanti. 17-3-1 overall last 1 as dog. Also 8-2 last ten vs. spread on MAC road.
Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.


BUFFALO at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Bulls now on 12-3-2 spread uptick since late 2016. Chips, however, on 9-1 spread surge last ten in reg season since mid 2017.
Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at AKRON...RedHawks 1-5 vs. line last six away from Yager Stadium. Zips have covered last two this season but just 3-9-1 vs. points at Infocision since 2016.
Slight to Miami, based on team trends.


NOTRE DAME at VIRGINIA TECH...Fuente 11-2 SU at home with Hokies since 2016, if home chalk note 8-4 mark last 12 in role. Irish 5-2 vs. spread away since last season.
Slight to Notre Dame, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS at RUTGERS...Road dog has won outright last two in series. Lovie just 3-3 vs. spread last six away from Champaign-Urbana, though only 6-13 last 19 vs. line overall. ‘Gers 2-5 last seven vs. points.
Slight to Illinois, based on series trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at BOISE STATE...Rocky Long 12-7-1 last 20 as dog. Dog has also covered last four in this series. Aztecs 11-3 vs. points last 14 on MW road. Broncos 2-10 last 12 as blue carpet MW chalk.
San Diego State, based on team and series trends.


ARIZONA STATE at COLORADO...Herm 4-1 vs. line with ASU and 2-0 in dog role. ASU 7-3-1 as dog since LY. Home team has covered last five in series, however, and CU 3-0 vs. points against FBS foes this season.
Slight to Colorado, based on series trends.


LIBERTY at NEW MEXICO STATE...Ags, no covers last four in Las Cruces, 3-9 last 12 vs. spread in reg season.
Liberty, based on recent trends.


NORTH TEXAS at UTEP...UNT 7-3 vs. spread last 10 in reg season, 4-1 last five vs. line as visitor. UTEP 4-12-1 vs. line since 2017.
North Texas, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON at UCLA...Bruins on 5-12-1 spread skid. Also 5-11 vs. points last 16 at Rose Bowl.
Washington, based on UCLA negatives.


UTAH at STANFORD...Utes have covered all three times vs. Tree since entering Pac 12. Utah 10-2 against number last 12 as visiting dog. Tree 5-8 last 13 as Palo Alto chalk.
Utah, based on team and series trends.


FRESNO STATE at NEVADA...Tedford 13-3-1 vs. points since taking over FSU LY, and Bulldogs on 18-5-1 spread uptick. Pack 5-7 vs. spread as dog for Jay Norvell (though 2-1 as home dog).
Fresno State, based on team and series trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON STATE...Leach 11-4 vs. spread last 14 reg season games, 3-2 as road chalk since LY.
Washington State, based on team trends.


CAL at ARIZONA...Cal 8-4 as dog for Wilcox since LY. Cats just 2-4-1 last 7 as home chalk and Sumlin 11-18-1 last 30 in role dating to A&M days.
Cal, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO at UNLV...Road team has covered last three in series. Sanchez just 4-8 last 12 as home chalk.
Slight to New Mexico, based on series and team trends.


NORTHWESTERN at MICHIGAN STATE...Ugh! Pat Fitz 11-3 last 14 as visiting dog. Won and covered last two years as dog vs. MSU. Dantonio 4-2 as home chalk since LY but was 12-20 in role preceding five seasons.
Northwestern, based on team trends.


KANSAS at WEST VIRGINIA...Road team has covered last four in series, though KU just 4-13-1 last 18 on Big 12 road. Mounties have covered first three in 2018, now 5-1 laying DD since 2017.
Slight to West Virginia, based on team trends.


ALABAMA at ARKANSAS...Hogs now on 5-13-1 spread skid since late 2016. Bama has only covered 1 of last 4 (1-2-1) vs. Hogs , and note Saban just 8-10-1 vs. spread last 19 on board.
Slight to Alabama, based on Arkansas woes.


UAB at LA TECH...Bill Clark 11-5 as dog with UAB since arriving in 2014. Skip just 3-5 last 8 vs. spread in Ruston.
Slight to UAB, based on team trends.


KENTUCKY at TEXAS A&M...Dog teams covered in first four UK games TY, and Mark Stoops 11-6 as dog since 2016.
Kentucky, based on team trends.


IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE...ISU 13-7-1 as dog since Matt Campbell arrived in 2016, also 6-2 vs. points last eight as visitor.
Iowa State, based on team trends.


VANDERBILT at GEORGIA...Derek Mason 3-1 vs. line against Dawgs, though Georgia romped LY. But Vandy just 3-8 last 11 as dog overall. Georgia on 14-7 spread uptick.
Georgia, based on recent trends.


IOWA at MINNESOTA...Iowa 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 vs. line last six in Floyd games. If chalk note Ferentz 12-2-1 on road in role since 2013. Fleck just 2-7-1 vs. spread in Big Ten games with Gophers since LY.
Iowa, based on team and series trends.


BOWLING GREEN at TOLEDO...Falcs 0-4-1 vs. line TY, Jinks now 7-21-1 vs. spread since taking over in 2016. Falcs haven’t beaten nearby rival Toledo SU since 2009. Rockets 4-1-1 last six vs. line in series, and 8-4 vs. spread last 12 in reg season.
Toledo, based on team and series trends.


AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Malzahn 19-35-1 last 55 vs. number, but is 5-2-1 as visiting chalk since 2015. Malzahn whipped Dan Mullen last two years but failed to cover previous three vs. MSU. Under Mullen, MSU was 3-1 as Starkville dog past two years and 7-4 as dog.
Slight to Auburn, based on recent series trends.


NAVY at AIR FORCE...Navy was 7-2 as visiting chalk entering this season but 0-2 in that role in 2018. Teams have split last eight meetings SU and vs. line. If Calhoun a dog note 14-6 spread mark last 20 in role.
Slight to Air Force, based on team trends.


ULM at OLE MISS...Rebs 1-5 vs. line last six laying points to non-SEC at Oxford. Also just 3-6 vs. spread last 9 after facing hated LSU.
Louisiana-Monroe, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA vs. TEXAS (at Cotton Bowl, Dallas)...Tom Herman now 11-1 as dog with Houston and Texas. Horns have covered last five in this old rivalry. Lincoln Riley just 1-4 vs. spread laying points away from Norman since LY.
Texas, based on team and series trends.


UCONN at MEMPHIS... Tigers now no covers 3 of last 4 TY but still 7-4 last 11 laying DD. UConn 0-4-1 vs. line TY, 5-11-1 for Edsall II since LY, 5-16-1 last 21 overall vs. spread since mid 2016.
Memphis, based on team trends.


ULL at TEXAS STATE... Cajuns won and covered big all three from 2014-16. Bobcats just 4-9 vs. line at home since 2016 (3-7 as home dog). Though Cajuns just 3-7 vs. line last nine away from Lafayette.
Slight to Louisiana-Lafayette, based on extended series trends.

UTSA at RICE... UTSA no covers last 9 or 12 of last 13 since mid 2017. Rice has covered 5 of last 6 in series.
Rice, based on team and series trends.


KANSAS STATE at BAYLOR...If chalk note Bill Snyder no covers last three as visitor in role. Dog team is 7-1 vs. points last eight meetings. Bears just 3-8 vs. line last 11 at Waco (3-6 for Rhule).
Slight to K-State, especially if dog, based on series and team trends.


FLORIDA STATE at MIAMI-FLA...Last four meetings all decided by 4 or fewer. Canes were just 1-4 as home chalk LY but 2-1 in role TY. Noles 0-3 as dog LY.
Miami, based on team trends.


NEBRASKA at WISCONSIN...Frost no wins or covers first four TY, Huskers on 4-14 spread skid dating to late 2016. Huskers only 1-6 SU and vs. line against Badgers since entering Big Ten. Huskers 4-9 last 13 as dog. Badgers, however, no covers first three TY at Camp Randall.
Wisconsin, based on team and series trends.


COLORADO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...CSU really skidding, 1-4 vs. line TY, 1-11 last 12 vs. number. No covers last five away from Fort Collins. SJSU 4-0-1 vs. spread last five vs. BCS foes.
San Jose State, based on CSU negatives.


WYOMING at HAWAII...Hawaii no covers last four (0-2-1) after quick start. But Wyo no covers last four since opener vs. NMSU. Bohl however 12-7 last 19 as dog, and Bows 4-20-1 vs. line last 25 at Aloha (1-2 TY).
Slight to Wyoming, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 6

It is becoming clear that it is going to be no easy feat to dislodge the Top 4 in college football, as they are all continuing to find ways to win, even though those victories are not always pretty. Ohio State and Clemson both needed to dig deep in Week 5 to get wins and maintain their top status, although things look to be a little easier for them with this weekend’s schedule.

The bigger games in Week 6 involve ranked teams going head to head in an effort to continue moving up and challenging the Big 4. Let’s take a look at some of the bigger games on the Week 6 college football schedule. As always, all odds, props and futures for each game sponsored by YouWager.eu.

No. 19 Texas Longhorns at No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners

The Red River Rivalry is always one of the games that these two teams circle on the calendar and tis one should be a real treat for the fans, too, as both teams are now ranked in the top 25. Texas have recovered nicely after losing their season opener, while the Oklahoma Sooners are still unbeaten through the first 5 weeks of the season. The line may change a little as the week progresses, but for now, the Sooners are in as a 7-point home favorite. This thing may end up being a little tighter than the line suggests, but either way, I think it will be Oklahoma who come out on top in this one.


No. 5 LSU Tigers at No. 22 Florida Gators

A huge SEC match-up here, especially for Florida who are coming into this game having already dropped a conference game. They are almost certainly out of the running to be in the SEC Championship Game if they lose this one, as it really doesn’t look as though Georgia are going to drop too many games in the East Division. For LSU, it’s all about remaining unbeaten and keeping the pressure on the high-flying Alabama Crimson Tide in the West. The bookies have this as a close one, with the LSU Tigers in as an early 3 ½ point favorite. It’s never easy to get a win on the road against the Gators, but I like LSU to get it.


Florida State Seminoles at No. 17 Miami Hurricanes

We have yet another big rivalry game on tap this coming Saturday, with the Florida State Seminoles making the short trip to Miami to face the Hurricanes. This is a match-up that the Seminoles dominated for a while, but it is clear that the tide is starting to turn. Florida State are in rebuilding mode at the moment, while the Hurricanes look as though they are going to be a permanent fixture in the top 25 for the foreseeable future. You can see the difference between these two in the early point spread, with the Hurricanes in as a 12 ½ point favorite. This should be a win for the home team.


No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 24 Virginia Tech Hokies

The Fighting Irish are one of a handful of teams who have a legitimate shot at running down the top 4 teams in the nation. They come into this one with a perfect 5-0 record this season, and while they are an early 5 ½ point favorite here, this is going to be a game that is far from easy for them. The Hokies took a tough loss a couple of weeks back against Old Dominion, but they bounced back with a big win in Week 5 over a ranked Duke team. They are going to give the Irish all they can handle this coming Saturday, although I do think the Hokies will come up a little short.


****************************

LJ LISTED AS STARTER

The Michigan State Spartans are expected to have running back LJ Scott in the lineup for this weekend's encounter with visiting Northwestern. Scott is listed atop the depth chart for the Spartans after missing the previous two games with a leg injury. But fans and bettors should be careful, as Scott was atop last week's depth chart before being made a late scratch for Michigan State's 31-20 triumph over Central Michigan. Scott, who ran for nearly 900 yards with eight touchdowns in 2017, has just 30 carries for 103 scoreless yards in two games this season.

Scott's return would bolster a Spartans run game that has produced an average of 129.8 yards per contest, ranking 104th nationally. The total for this one has plummeted from 48 down to 43.5, and the return of Scott – who has 25 collegiate rushing scores – should provide some relief for over bettors.


INGRAM CARRYING THE LOAD?

Keaontay Ingram will be front and center for the Texas Longhorns this weekend as they take on the Oklahoma Sooners in a massive Big 12 matchup at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Injuries have limited Ingram to just 34 carries on the season, but his 6.1 YPC average has set him up for a feature role Saturday against the Sooners, who are eight-point favorites. When asked if Ingram was ready to carry the load, Longhorns head coach Tom Herman told reporters: "Yeah, I think he's ready." The freshman sensation has a pair of touchdowns in four games and has also caught 10 passes for 39 yards.

Ingram will be put to the test against a Sooners defense limiting opponents to 3.2 yards per carry, though Oklahoma has surrendered 10 touchdowns on the ground. Texas' team total sits at 24.5, and a good game from Ingram should help the Longhorns convert the over; they're averaging 28.8 points per game, while the Sooners allow 23.2.


NO BULL, JOHNSON DAY-TO-DAY

Buffalo fans are holding their collective breath as wide receiver Anthony Johnson continues his recovery from a hamstring injury. Johnson is considered day-to-day heading into this weekend's showdown with Central Michigan. The redshirt senior suffered the injury two weeks ago against Rutgers and was held out of last weekend's 42-13 drubbing at the hands of the Army Black Knights. Johnson is off to a sensational start for the Bulls, having hauled in 18 receptions for a team-best 301 receiving yards and three touchdowns so far.

The absence of Johnson, who had 1,356 receiving yards and 14 TDs a year ago, helped torpedo the Buffalo pass offense, which managed just 156 yards in the loss to Army. The Bulls are 8.5-point underdogs at Central Michigan, and this one is simple: If he's back, we recommend taking the road cover. If he sits out, we lean toward the Chippewas.


BACK TO ZEB

Iowa State will turn to quarterback Zeb Noland for a fourth consecutive week as it prepares to face Oklahoma State this weekend. Noland will once again fill in for Kyle Kempt, who remains sidelined with a knee injury but has reportedly shed his brace and is making progress. Noland has been mostly serviceable in relief, having racked up 715 passing yards with four touchdowns and just one interception through parts of four games. He was held to 79 passing yards in last week's loss to TCU but has at least one TD pass in each of his first three starts.

Noland has shown enough to warrant taking the over on Iowa State's 21.5-point team total against a Cowboys defense allowing a whopping 262 passing yards per game, ranking outside the top 100 in Division I.

[StarDust Bum]

LSU at Florida
October 3, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

College Football Betting Preview – LSU at Florida

When Dan Mullen was hired as head coach of the Florida Gators it was celebrated as a return to the Fun and Gun days of lore. Indeed, Mullen was offensive coordinator for Urban Meyer when quarterback Tim Tebow was leading the Gators to two national championships and with a most entertaining style of play. So far Mullen has led the Gators to a 4-1 start. But that is in spite of instead of great offensive football.

In fact, the last time the Gators offense was productive and coherent was Tebow’s final season under center. Now the Gators will be going up against a tough LSU Tigers team with a strong stop unit.

Date and Time: Saturday, October 6, 2018, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffith Stadium, Gainesville, Florida
College Football Odds at BetDSI: LSU -2.5
LSU vs. Florida TV Coverage: CBS

The Florida Gators are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread with three of their games going under the total. The Gators are coming off a hard fought bare knuckled brawl of a win at Mississippi State 13-6 as 6.5 point dogs. The victory was especially sweet for Gators coach Dan Mullen, who was returning to Mississippi State after leaving them in December of last year for the Florida job. Mullen led the Bulldogs to their most successful era ever but fans will never forgive him for leaving.

There is little doubt that Mullen will eventually straighten out the Florida offense. But as for now he inherited the same mess that was left behind by Urban Meyer, Will Muschamp, and Jim McElwain. It boggles the mind that in such a fertile recruiting area as Florida has not been able to field a coherent offensive attack. Florida ranks 94th in the nation for total offense but that is offset by a strong defense that ranks ninth for points allowed.

Everyone laughed when the LSU Tigers hired Ed Orgeron as head coach two years ago. Nobody is laughing now. Indeed, Orgeron has defied his critics by improving the play of the Bayou Bengals. LSU has a record of 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread with three of their five games going over the total. Last week the Tigers mauled Ole Miss 45-16 as 11.5-point chalks. LSU ranks 12th in the nation for scoring defense. And although they rank 48th for scoring offense that is deceptive.

Transfer quarterback Joe Burrow has proven to be quite a find from Ohio State. While not spectacular Burrow is a fine game manager that avoids making stupid and costly mistakes. A good indicator of Burrow’s efficiency is his six touchdown passes with zero interceptions.

Matchup to Watch

These teams are similar in that their success is based on strong defense. Burrow should prove to be the matchup advantage for LSU. While not great the Bayou Bengals offense has proven to be superior to Florida thus far. LSU is also deeper defensively. Mullen will need a recruiting class or two in order to get the Florida offense where he wants it to be.

Key Stats

LSU has been a good wagering value as a road chalk lately with four payouts in their last six in that role. Three of the Tigers last four games as road favorites have gone under the total.

Florida has failed to get the money in four of their last seven as home dogs with three of their last four in that situation going under the total.

LSU has had the recent upper hand in this head to head series with Florida. The Tigers have paid in their last two meetings with the Gators as both games also went under the total. And at Ben Hill Griffith Stadium the Bayou Bengals have escaped with three wins in their last four visits. Two of the last three games between these teams at Florida went under the total.

LSU vs. Florida Picks

Florida is improving but not yet at the same level of LSU. Orgeron has a deeper roster with more experience and overall talent. LSU also boasts the better quarterback.

LSU vs. Florida Pick: Bet LSU at BetDSI
LSU vs. Florida Score Prediction: LSU 20, Florida 14

[StarDust Bum]

Notre Dame at Virginia Tech
October 3, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

NCAA Football Game Preview - Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Virginia Tech Hokies

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish may have been undefeated through three games, but a sputtering offense kept them from being considered a true national championship contender. However, a quarterback change has improved the tenor and now the team has a legitimate shot at the College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame will aim to improve to 6-0 on the season when it faces off against the Virginia Tech Hokies in Week 6 of the college football season. Virginia Tech does not have the same amount of pure talent on its roster but does have the home field advantage.

Virginia Tech was about a touchdown underdog last time out and was able to upset the Duke Blue Devils. The Hokies would love to pull a similar trick in this one and deal a blow to Notre Dame’s national title hopes in NCAA football gambling.

This NCAA football game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Virginia Tech Hokies will be held at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Virginia at 8 p.m ET on Saturday, October 6th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on ABC.

We'll have NCAA football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NCAA season.

Odds Analysis

Notre Dame began the week as a 5.5-point favorite and that line has moved up a point to 6.5. If it keeps growing to a touchdown difference Virginia Tech would be a wonderful choice. The Fighting Irish is the -245 favorite on the moneyline while Virginia Tech is +203 to pull off the upset. The scoring total is listed at 57.5 points, which has gone up a few points from the original line. The betting public has clearly favored Notre Dame and the “over” early on in NCAA football odds.

Once the game begins, certain themes could emerge early on. With a new live betting platform, gamblers can make wagers on the game as it is happening. So if a pregame bet doesn’t look like it was the right one, it’s easy to counteract it once some trends start to happen.

Last Time Out

Virginia Tech paid off nicely for those who backed it on the moneyline in Week 5. The Hokies were underdogs on the road against Duke but pulled out an easy 31-14 victory. Virginia Tech led by 10 points at intermission and then added a third-quarter touchdown to pull away from the Blue Devils. Quarterback Ryan Willis looked good in the contest, throwing for 332 yards and three touchdowns. The Notre Dame defense has been good on the season, so it will be interesting to see if Willis can keep it up.

Notre Dame turned some heads by pulling away to knock off the Stanford Cardinal in a top-10 clash in Week 5. The Fighting Irish led by a touchdown in the fourth quarter and then scored 14 consecutive points for the 38-17 win. Quarterback Ian Book was 24-of-33 passing for 278 yards and four touchdowns, while Dexter Williams had 161 rushing yards and a touchdown. Wideout Miles Boykin had a huge game for Notre Dame, catching 11 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown.

Key Stat

24. That’s the most points Notre Dame scored in any of its first three games as the offense couldn’t get going behind quarterback Brandon Wimbush. It has been at a new level with Book leading the way.

He led the Fighting Irish to a 56-27 win over Wake Forest prior to last week’s impressive showing against a stingy Stanford defense. Book has thrown for 616 yards and seven touchdowns on the year and he will aim to keep it going in this one.

If Book starts well, consider live betting when it comes to Notre Dame scoring drives.

Free NCAA Football ATS Picks

The Fighting Irish has a solid team and Book has looked great. However, Virginia Tech is a solid opponent and gets this contest at home. The Hokies are the pick to cover this spread, and even as the scoring total goes up, the “under” is the choice in NFL live betting.

NCAA Football Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 27, Virginia Tech Hokies 23

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet
October 3, 2018
By Brian Edwards

**Georgia Tech at Louisville**

-- Bobby Petrino and Paul Johnson have had better days. Both bring their teams into Friday’s ACC showdown in dire need of a victory. Their respective schools have a combined 2-6 record against FBS competition going into this contest at Cardinal Stadium. As of early Wednesday, most betting shops had the Yellow Jackets installed as 4.5-point road favorites with a total of 57.5. The Cardinals were +160 on the money line (risk $100 to win $160).

-- Georgia Tech (2-3 straight up, 1-4 against the spread) is 0-2 both SU and ATS in a pair of road assignments. Johnson’s club lost 49-38 at USF in Week 2 and dropped a 24-19 decision at Pittsburgh in Week 3. The Yellow Jackets returned home to take on Clemson, but they got smashed by the Tigers, 49-21, as 16-point underdogs. Georgia Tech stopped the bleeding and avoided a four-game losing streak by beating up on Bowling Green 63-17 as a 28-point home ‘chalk’ last week.

-- Senior QB TaQuon Marshall completed 5-of-6 passes for 160 yards against the Falcons. He also rushed for 42 yards and two touchdowns on 13 attempts. Redshirt freshman Tobias Oliver rushed for a team-high 115 yards and two TDs on seven carries, while Jordan Mason ran seven times for 61 yards and a pair of scores.

-- Georgia Tech is ranked second in the nation in rushing yards, averaging 339.2 yards per game. Johnson’s flexbone offense has thrived through much of his 11-year tenure in Atlanta, but its production waned from 2015-17. This unit averaged 34.3, 33.6, 35.1 and 37.9 points per game from 2011-14, but those numbers were reduced to 29.3, 28.2 and 28.1 the past three seasons. The Yellow Jackets are scoring at a 36.4 PPG clip so far this year. Nevertheless, with a 2-3 record and an offense that can grow tiring for a fan base since it’s extremely lacking in homerun potential throwing the ball, Johnson is undoubtedly on the hot seat.

-- Marshall has connected on 30-of-63 passes (47.6%) for 543 yards with a 2/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has run for a team-best 382 yards and seven TDs with a 4.3 yards-per-carry average. Mason has run for 365 yards and three TDs while averaging 8.1 YPC, and Oliver has run for 318 yards and five TDs with a 6.9 YPC average. Senior A-back Clinton Lynch has seven receptions for 209 yards and two TDs, in addition to 57 rushing yards and one TD on 10 totes.

-- Georgia Tech is ranked No. 83 in the country in scoring defense (27.8 PPG), No. 53 in total defense, No. 51 at defending the pass and No. 57 in run defense. The Yellow Jackets have struggled to get pressure on the QB, sacking opposing QB only six times through five games. Senior DB Malik Rivera has shine on this unit, producing a team-high 25 tackles with two interceptions for 84 return yards.

-- Louisville (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) has won two of its three home games, but it has limped to a 1-2 spread record and basically just gave away a victory last week due to perhaps the most inept play-call of Petrino’s career. With U of L leading FSU 24-21 with just over two minutes to play, it took over possession on FSU’s 21 with the Seminoles having two timeouts remaining. In this situation, the worst-case scenario is to run it three times in a row and settle for a short field-goal attempt. Willie Taggart would have to use both timeouts and the clock would drip down to around 1:15 left by the time FSU took over without a timeout and most likely down by six points. Instead, Petrino called a pass play that was intercepted by A.J. Westbrook. Five plays later, FSU hit a long TD pass and got a defensive stop to capture a 28-24 victory. The Cardinals still took the cash as 5.5-point home underdogs, but they allowed a 14-point halftime advantage and a double-digit lead with less than 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter slip away.

-- U of L sophomore QB Jawon Pass completed 24-of-45 passes for 306 yards with two TD and two interceptions vs. FSU. He also had a 14-yard TD run to open the scoring. Senior WR Jaylen Smith, a first-team All-ACC selection last season, had five receptions for 100 yards. Dez Fitzpatrick had four catches for 45 yards and one TD, while Micky Crum had eight grabs for 47 yards and one TD. RB Trey Smith rushed for a team-best 70 yards on 14 carries.

-- Louisville had a 24-16 advantage in first downs over the ‘Noles and a 421-370 edge in total yards. FSU was plus two in turnover margin, however.

-- With Lamar Jackson as its starting QB the past two seasons, U of L averaged 42.5 and 38.1 PPG in 2016 and ’17, respectively. Through five games this year, the Cardinals are ranked No. 122 in the nation in scoring with a pedestrian 18.4 PPG average. They’re No. 120 in total offense, No. 112 in rushing yards and No. 102 in passing yards.

-- Louisville opened the season by losing to top-ranked Alabama by a 51-14 count down in Orlando. The Cardinals responded with back-to-back home victories (but non-covers) vs. Indiana State (31-7) and vs. Western Kentucky (20-17). They lost 27-3 at Virginia before last week’s meltdown.

-- Pass has completed merely 51.7 percent of his passes for 760 with an abysmal 4/7 TD-INT ratio. RS freshman QB Malik Cunningham has been given playing time under center as well. In fact, he’s rushed for a team-high 209 yards and one TD with a 4.9 YPC average. Cunningham has connected on 64.7 percent of his throws for 198 yards with a 1/1 TD-INT ratio. Jaylen Smith has 13 receptions for 224 yards and one TD, while Fitzpatrick has caught 14 balls for 168 yards and one TD. Trey Smith has run for 105 yards with a 4.4 YPC average.

-- Louisville has compiled a 3-2 spread record as a home underdog during Petrino’s second run at the school that started in 2014.

-- According to an SB Nation report on Tuesday, U of L would owe Petrino more than $14 million if it fires him during the 2018 season or right after it. Remember, it was recently-fired AD Tom Jurich who brought Petrino back to the school (after he bolted for the Atlanta Falcons less than a year after signing a 10-year contract) and extended his contract to 2023 after Jackson won the Heisman and the Cards went 9-4 in 2016. Amid the FBI investigation that led to basketball coach Rick Pitino being fired, Jurich was also fired but is owed more than $7 million from the school. Pitino has sued U of L to collect $37 million. Therefore, with the amount of money it would take to attract a quality new coach, the Cardinals appear to be stuck with Petrino. Like I said when Jurich decided to give Petrino a second chance, the school new it was getting into a bed with fleas.

-- Georgia Tech owns a 10-12-2 spread record in 24 games as a road favorite during Johnson’s 11 seasons on the job.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for U of L, 2-1 in its home contests. The Cardinals’ games have averaged combined scores of 44.4 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Georgia Tech, 1-1 in its two road outings. The Yellow Jackets have seen their games average combined scores of 64.2 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Utah State at BYU**

-- As of Wednesday, most spots had BYU (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) listed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 55. The Aggies were +120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120).

-- Utah State (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare for the Cougars, who are playing their sixth game in a six-week stretch. Since losing 38-31 at Michigan State as a 23.5-point road underdog in its season opener, Matt Wells’s squad has ripped off three consecutive wins both SU and ATS vs. New Mexico State (60-13), vs. Tennessee Tech (73-12) and vs. Air Force (42-32).

-- Utah State led 35-14 against the Falcons late in the third quarter, only to see them cut the deficit to three with an 18-0 run in less than six minutes of play. Air Force got a 21-yard scoop-and-score fumble return from Christopher Musselman with 13:00 remaining to make it 35-32. But the Aggies answered with Gerold Bright’s 70-yard TD run with 6:52 left to cover the spread. Sophomore QB Jordan Love completed 26-of-38 passes for 356 yards and two TDs without an interception. Bright rushed for 101 yards and two TDs on 11 carries, while junior RB Darwin Thompson had 34 rushing yards and two scores on six attempts. Senior WR Ron’quavion Tarver hauled in nine catches for 128 yards, and Dax Raymond caught four balls for 68 receiving yards and one TD.

-- Utah State is averaging 51.5 PPG to rank fourth in the nation in scoring. The Aggies are No. 31 in the country in total offense and No. 29 in passing yards.

-- Love has completed 66.7 percent of his throws for 1,070 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. Tarver has 22 receptions for 228 yards and Raymond has 15 catches for 210 yards and one TD. Bright has rushed for 288 yards and four TDs with a 7.2 YPC average, while Thompson has run for 265 yards and six TDs with a 9.5 YPC average.

-- During Wells’s six-year tenure, Utah State has produced an 8-12 ATS mark when playing in the road underdog role.

-- BYU has wins at Arizona (28-23), at Wisconsin (24-21) and vs. McNeese State (30-3), but it lost 21-18 vs. California as a 2.5-point home favorite in Week 2. The Cougars dropped a 35-7 decision at Washington as 18.5-point road underdogs last week. They managed merely 194 yards of total offense, averaged only 1.2 YPC and didn’t score until Lopini Katoa found paydirt on a one-yard plunge with just 41 ticks remaining. Tanner Mangum completed 18-of-21 throws but for only 160 passing yards. Katoa had seven catches for 66 yards, in addition to 27 rushing yards and one score on eight carries.

-- Making matters worse in last week’s defeat at UW, tight end Moroni Laulu-Pututau was lost to a season-ending knee injury. Laulu-Pututau had 14 catches for 120 yards and one TD.

-- Mangum was forced into the starting QB role in the season opener at Nebraska in 2015 when Taysom Hill sustained a season-ending leg injury. All he did in his freshman debut was successfully throw a Hail-Mary TD pass on the game's final play in Lincoln. He then created fourth-quarter heroics in a home win over Boise State. the next Saturday. Mangum posted a 23/10 TD-INT ratio and threw for 3,377 yards that campaign. Hill returned in ’16 and regained his starting role, limiting Mangum to mop-up duty. He became the starter again last year, but he completed just 57.2 percent of his throws for 1,540 yards with a 9/8 TD-INT ratio. Here in the first five games this season, Mangum has 772 passing yards and a 3/2 TD-INT ratio.

-- BYU is ranked No. 125 nationally in total offense, No. 116 in passing yards, No. 102 in rushing and No. 115 in scoring with its meager 21.4 PPG average.

-- BYU is 4-6 ATS in 10 games as a home favorite during Kalani Sitake’s three-year tenure.

-- The ‘under’ is a perfect 5-0 for BYU, 2-0 in its home games. The Cougars have seen their games produce an average combined score of 42.0 PPG. This is the second-highest total they've seen this year. The 51 combined points in their season-opening win at Arizona fell below the 58.5-point tally.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-0 for Utah State with its games averaging combined scores of 75.2 PPG.

-- ESPN2 will have the broadcast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Marshall (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) will play host to Middle Tennessee at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network. The Thundering Herd won 20-17 at Western Ky. last week thanks to a 32-yard TD pass from Isaiah Green to Tyre Brady with 1:44 remaining. Brady helped Green overcome three interceptions by making eight receptions for 162 yards and two TDs, including a 40-yard TD catch early in the first quarter. As of Tuesday, most spots had Doc Holliday’s team installed as a 6.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 53. Rick Stockstill’s club improved to 2-2 both SU and ATS with last week’s 25-24 win over FAU as a 2.5-point home underdog. Stockstill chose to go for two after a potential tying TD late in the fourth quarter and the conversion was good when Brent Stockstill found Gatlin Casey with 38 ticks left. Since 2008, the Blue Raiders have limped to a 15-24-1 spread record as road underdogs.

-- FAU fell to 0-5 ATS in last week’s loss in Murfeesboro. The Owls are joined as winless for our purposes by other schools such as Nebraska (0-4 ATS), UConn (0-4-1) and UTSA (0-4-1).

-- The ATS Perfection Club is led by Washington State with its 5-0 spread record. West Virginia, FIU, Utah State, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are 4-0 ATS, while Syracuse is 4-0-1 versus the number. App. State (and Utah State, as previously noted) has seen the ‘over’ go 4-0, while Georgia Southern has watched the ‘under’ hit at a 4-0 clip.

-- UNLV star QB Armani Rogers could be out up to six weeks with a broken toe, according to a report from the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Mark Anderson (formerly of the Tallahassee Democrat WAYyyy back in the day). Rogers has completed just 41.5 percent of his passes for 369 yards with a 6/4 TD-INT ratio. However, the sophomore signal caller out of powerhouse Bishop Gorman HS, where Tony Sanchez coached before moving from the prep to the FBS level to take the UNLV gig, has rushed for a team-best 488 yards and six TDs with a 6.9 YPC average.

-- Something’s got to give with the total (55.5 pts.) in South Alabama’s road game at Georgia Southern. The ‘over’ is 5-0 for the USA Jaguars, who have seen combined scores of 56, 68, 72, 87 and 59. As noted earlier, the ‘under’ is perfect for the Eagles. USA is playing its third consecutive road game and is looking to avenge a 52-0 loss to the Eagles last year. In fact, Georgia Southern has beaten the Jags in all four meetings since moving up from FCS to the Sun Belt Conference.

-- Best wishes to Texas Tech true freshman QB Alan Bowman, who remains hospitalized with a partially collapsed lung sustained during last week’s 42-34 home loss to West Virginia. Likewise, we’re rooting hard for Tennessee State LB Christion Abercombie, who collapsed on the sidelines in last week’s narrow loss at Vanderbilt. Before collapsing, Abercrombie complained of a headache. He was rushed to nearby Vanderbilt Medical Center and underwent immediate emergency surgery on his brain. Abercrombie is reportedly showing small signs of progress but remains in Nashville in critical condition.

-- I’ve talked plenty on radio shows this week about James Franklin’s atrocious play call on fourth down at crunch time vs. Ohio State this past Saturday night, but I’ve yet to put anything about it in print here at VI. Until now, that is. My goodness, have you ever seen anything worse than that?! (This was worse than throwing on 1st and goal in the Seahawks-Patriots’ Super Bowl.) There are basically zero situations where you run the ball there on fourth and five unless you have Jim Brown, Earl Campbell and Barry Sanders lined up in the Power-I formation, right? But the circumstances were that PSU’s best player is QB Trace McSorley, who by the way, was more than capable of running or throwing for first-down yardage, especially if you call a play to get him out of the pocket. He’s your ‘horse,’ your senior leader and your Heisman Trophy candidate. And on the most important play of the season, you take the ball out of his hands? Hey, I’ve always liked Franklin and still do, but that was utterly insane! The dude literally lost his sanity at a time in which that’s not acceptable for any head coach at any level.

-- Boston College star RB A.J. Dillon is ‘questionable’ at N.C. State. and is expected to be a game-time decision. He had not practiced yet this week, as of Wednesday, due to the ankle injury suffered in last week’s 45-35 home win over Temple. Dillon is ranked tops in the ACC and third in the nation with 652 rushing yards. He’s in a 10th-place tie nationally in rushing TDs (six) and is averaging 6.2 YPC.

-- Stanford RB Bryce Love is ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury for a home game vs. Utah. The Cardinal is favored by five points over the Utes, who are 18-11 ATS in 29 games as road underdogs in the past decade.

[StarDust Bum]

October begins with 14 unbeatens
October 3, 2018
By The Associated Press

The arrival of October in college football means nonconference game are mostly done, with some notable exceptions involving independents, late-season rivalries and those mid-November cupcakes that have become a Southern staple.

Conference play usually means familiar opponents, tighter games and a higher probability for favorites losing. The season's second month begins with 14 unbeaten teams. Broken down by conference, they look like this:

SEC - 4 (No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Georgia, No. 5 LSU, No. 13 Kentucky).

American - 3 (No. 13 Central Florida, South Florida, Cincinnati).

ACC - 2 (No. 4 Clemson, No. 23 North Carolina State).

Big 12 - 2 (No. 7 Oklahoma, No. 9 West Virginia).

Big Ten - 1 (No. 3 Ohio State).

Pac-12 - 1 (No. 21 Colorado).

Independent - 1 (No. 6 Notre Dame).

By the end of October, that number will be down to 12 at most. Since every conference now plays a championship game, there cannot be more than seven undefeated teams on Dec. 3, the College Football Playoff's selection Sunday. Only the SEC managed to get through the first month with the possibility of a matchup of unbeatens in its title game.

Among the unbeaten, LSU, Notre Dame and Kentucky face tricky road trips this week, while Colorado and N.C. State are home for potentially tough divisional games. The picks:

No. 1 Alabama (minus 35) at Arkansas

Tide has been outscored 28-17 in the fourth quarter. Clearly, those third- and fourth-stringers need a lot of work ... ALABAMA 52-10.

Vanderbilt (plus 26) at No. 2 Georgia

Bulldogs have the No. 1 defense in the SEC (4.35 yards per play allowed), but the fewest sacks (five). That's odd ... GEORGIA 49-21.

Indiana (plus 25) at No. 3 Ohio State

A few times each season, the Hoosiers get frisky with a highly ranked team but still lose ... OHIO STATE 38-17.

No. 4 Clemson (minus 17) at Wake Forest

QB Trevor Lawrence is expected to play against the 102nd-ranked pass defense in the country ... CLEMSON 48-21.

No. 5 LSU (minus 2+) at No. 22 Florida

Tigers have won four of five and six of eight in the annual crossover series. Six of those games were decided by one score ... LSU 23-20.

No. 6 Notre Dame (minus 5+) at No. 24 Virginia Tech

Irish won't face another ranked opponent until at least mid-November if at all ... NOTRE DAME 31-21.

No. 7 Oklahoma (minus 7+) vs. No. 18 Texas at Dallas

We can all agree this game will definitively determine whether Texas is, indeed, back. ... OKLAHOMA 35-29.

No. 8 Auburn (minus 3) at Mississippi State

Two offenses looking for answers ... MISSISSIPPI STATE 20-17, UPSET SPECIAL.

Kansas (plus 28) at No. 9 West Virginia

Mountaineers have won four straight against KU, all by at least three scores ... WEST VIRGINIA 49-17.

No. 10 Washington (minus 21) at UCLA

Bruins will be fortunate to score a touchdown ... WASHINGTON 31-6.

SMU (plus 24) at No. 12 UCF

Knights have converted 62 percent of their third downs, tops in the nation ... UCF 56-24.

No. 13 Kentucky (plus 5) at Texas A&M

It's the Bear Bryant Bowl. The legendary coach did stints at Kentucky and A&M from 1946-57. The only two times the Wildcats and Aggies played (1952-53), Bryant was coaching Kentucky. He later coached Alabama ... KENTUCKY 25-23.

Utah (plus 5) at No. 14 Stanford

Utes are third in the nation in defense (4.03 yards per play) and 96th in offense (5.33 ypp) ... STANFORD 24-17.

Maryland (plus 17+) at No. 15 Michigan

First of four straight opponents for the Wolverines that currently have winning records ... MICHIGAN 38-17.

Nebraska (plus 20) No. 16 Wisconsin

Badgers have won six of seven meetings since the Huskers joined the Big Ten and nothing sums up Nebraska's recent problems better than that ... WISCONSIN 42-21.

Florida State (plus 13) at No. 17 Miami

Hurricanes snapped a seven-game losing streak to the `Noles last season with a dramatic comeback. This year, the `Canes get to flex a little ... MIAMI 31-14.

Northwestern (plus 11) at No. 20 Michigan State

WiIdcats have beaten the Spartans the last two seasons ... MICHIGAN STATE 28-14.

Arizona State (plus 2+) at No. 21 Colorado

Sun Devils RB Eno Benjamin ran for 312 yards against Oregon State, or 29 more yards than he had on the season coming into the game ... COLORADO 28-24.

Boston College (plus 4+) at No. 23 NC State

Wolfpack could set up a huge game at home against Clemson on Oct. 20 coming off an open date ... BOSTON COLLEGE 31-28.

Iowa State (plus 10) at No. 25 Oklahoma State

Cowboys have won six straight meetings but the last three have been by seven points or fewer ... OKLAHOMA STATE 31-17.

TWITTER REQUESTS

Missouri (plus 2) at South Carolina - (at)DABomination4

Bowl eligibility could be at risk for the Gamecocks with a loss, and that is definitely not what South Carolina fans were expecting this season ... MISSOURI 34-30.

Tulane (plus 7) at Cincinnati - (at)MrCatsPatrick

Bearcats (5-0) trying to become bowl eligible for first time since 2015 ... CINCINNATI 28-18.

Iowa (minus 6) at Minnesota - (at)Jake-Burroughs

Hawkeyes are seventh in the nation in defense (4.29 yards per play) and 71st in offense (5.78 ypp) ... IOWA 16-7.

San Diego State (plus 14+) at Boise State - (at)24themoney

Broncos might not be able to afford another loss if they want to lock down a New Year's Six bowl bid ... BOISE STATE 31-21.

Syracuse (minus 4) at Pittsburgh - (at)SportsMasterDan

Two surprise teams; one (Syracuse) surprisingly good and the other (Pitt) surprisingly bad ...PITT 31-28.

---

Last week: 19-4 straight; 12-11 against the spread.

Season: 89-22 straight; 59-51-1 against the spread.

Upset specials: 3-2 (straight up).

Best bets: 2-3 (against the spread).

[StarDust Bum]

Week 6 Upset Alerts
October 3, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag

NCAAFB Week 6 Upset Alerts

If you've been following along with this piece all year long you've probably come to realize that backing a lot of underdogs – especially big ones – can be a frustrating process at times. So far this year it's not been the huge underdogs that have hurt me, it's been the smaller ones, as both Nebraska and BYU failed to do much of anything a week ago as part of last week's selections.

The Cornhuskers look to be a program in real trouble, and although Scott Frost went the public route this week by calling out his team, this school is at least a year away from being taken seriously if you ask me. They've already seen some support this week as their opening number of +21.5 has been pushed down to +18.5 currently, but some of that support has got to be disdain for a Wisconsin team laying that much chalk.

On the bright side of things, Tennessee's ATS win against Georgia a week ago kept my perfect ATS record going with underdogs of 20+ points this year. The pickings will get slimmer and slimmer as the weeks go on and the big time rivalry games start to take center stage, but hopefully that run continues with this week's selection, so let's get right to the plays:

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 1-5 SU; 1-5 ATS

Texas State +3.5 over Louisiana-Lafayette

We've got a pair of 1-3 SU Sun Belt West division teams going at it here and this hasn't been the greatest rivalry for the Texas State Bobcats since they entered the Sun Belt. Lafayette is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the five meetings since 2013, but I don't think that same talent is there this year with the Ragin Cajuns.

Last year's contest was a 24-7 home victory for Lafayette as a double-digit favorite (-14), bu tit was the three turnovers for Texas State that really did them in there. Not many collegiate teams are going to win games when they lose the turnover battle 3-0, and as long as the Bobcats can take care of the ball here at home, this losing run to Lafayette should get snapped. The Bobcats lone SU victory this year came in their lone home game and I'm looking for them to make it two in a row this week.

Finally, although Lafayette was able to get the ATS cash as +49 underdogs in Alabama last week (after 'Bama took their foot off the gas in the 4th), I'd be remiss to mention that the four previous teams to lose to the Crimson Tide this year are 1-3 ATS in their next game, including 0-3 ATS when favored. That's the role this 1-3 SU Lafayette team finds themselves in this week, and it's a spot I've got no problem with backing the home side.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 1-4 SU; 3-2 ATS

Florida State +13.5 over Miami

Florida State has started to build a bit of momentum with two straight wins the past two weeks, including a 4th quarter comeback against Louisville a week ago. FSU outscored Louisville 14-0 in the final quarter of that game (21-3 in 2nd half) to ultimately win 28-24 in what has to be considered a possible turning point for this program in 2018. Another loss there and the Willie Taggart ere would probably be over before it really began, but at 3-2 SU, the Seminoles can really make some noise this week against a ranked Miami squad.

The Hurricanes are coming off an impressive drubbing of UNC a week ago in the TNF national spotlight, and Miami's turnover chain ended up becoming the star of the show. Miami forced six turnovers on the night and scored directly on three of them, a feat that's not going to be repeated this week. Take away those 21 points – and a few more thanks to the short fields the offense got to work with – and a 47-10 win doesn't really look all that impressive anymore from an offensive standpoint. The QB situation between N'Kosi Perry and Malik Rosier seems to be “solved” with the freshman Perry taking over that #1 role, but can you really trust a freshman-led offense to cover a big number like this in an instate rivalry game?

Florida State as the athletes to match Miami here in terms of both talent and speed, and as long as they can protect the ball and not let the Hurricanes build up momentum with turnovers, this game should be a one-possession game either way. As a program, Miami is 0-6 SU the last six times they've hosted FSU in this rivalry game, and each of the past four meetings overall have been decided by five points or less.

That's how I see this game playing out here as I'm not about to trust a freshman QB getting his first taste of this rivalry to be on the mark and win by 2+ TD's, against an FSU team that's starting to get their own swagger back.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 5-0 ATS

UCLA +20.5 vs Washington

Speaking of a big name program trying to regain some swagger, we've got the winless UCLA Bruins back at home this week and hosting a highly ranked Washington squad. Washington is a program that cost us a play in this piece a week ago when they blew out BYU, but I'm still not a believer in this team as a huge favorite, especially when they've got a huge test @ Oregon up next. The Huskies know they've got to run the table in the Pac-12 to be considered a CFB playoff team, so with that being the case it's going to be hard for them to not have one eye on next week considering what they've seen from UCLA so far in 2018.

Year 1 of Chip Kelly in L.A has been full of many speed bumps so far, but Kelly is here to build a long term winner and the Bruins winless start is more because of youth than anything. UCLA has talented guys throughout their roster, but 2018 is a season where they are taking their lumps in a “baptism by fire” approach that will hopefully pay dividends in 2019 and beyond. But that's not to say this team can't hang around as a big home underdog in this spot when Washington is probably taking them a little lightly.

Kelly's tenure probably runs to 0-5 SU after this game, but having that extra day of rest/prep never hurts. Washington is still just 1-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year, and with a 1-4 ATS run going on the road, and a 2-5 ATS run going as a program in their last seven trips to UCLA, this appears to be too many points for the Huskies to cover.

[StarDust Bum]

Tulsa at Houston
Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a West division battle between Tulsa and Houston.

The Golden Hurricane fared poorly on Thursday night two weeks ago in their first conference game while this is the AAC opener for Houston. Here is a look at Thursday’s game to start college football Week 6.

Match-up: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars
Venue: At TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, October 4, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Houston -18, Over/Under 68½
Last Meeting: 2017, at Tulsa (+14) 45, Houston 17

Houston won the inaugural AAC Championship game in 2015 and grabbed headlines nationally in 2016 with a pair of high profile upsets. That success let to Tom Herman being hired in Austin and last season former Texas quarterback Major Applewhite guided Houston to a 7-5 record in his first season as head coach.

Four of the five losses for Houston came in single score games but the one exception was a blowout loss at Tulsa, losing by 28 as a two-touchdown favorite. This season Houston is 3-1 with a notable win over Arizona while the loss came by 14 at Texas Tech. This will be the first game of the AAC season for the Cougars who figure to be the favorites in the West division with last season’s champion Memphis already 0-2 in league play.

Houston struggled to find a quarterback early last season but D’Eriq King emerged in late October, keying the upset over South Florida and finishing the season with solid results in the air and on the ground. Now a junior King has rushed less successfully and has a lower completion rate than last season but with 15 touchdowns and just one interception he has been a great leader with the offense scoring at least 45 points in every game.

Houston has rushed for over 1,000 yards in four games on 6.4 yards per carry with a committee approach as Patrick Carr leads the team with only 201 rushing yards and King leads the team with five rushing touchdowns.

Houston also has one of the highest profile defensive players in the nation with Ed Oliver a projected 1st round NFL pick next spring. Houston hasn’t had great defensive numbers this season allowing over 30 points per game after surrendering fewer than 24 points per game last season.

After a two-win 2017 season, Tulsa is expected to be an improved team with a shot at making the postseason. The 1-3 start has featured three losses in a row all against quality competition falling to Texas, Arkansas State, and opening the conference season with a 31-17 loss at Temple two weeks ago. Tulsa out-gained Temple by more than 100 yards in that game but had five turnovers including allowing two defensive touchdowns.

Luke Skipper split time at quarterback last season and has led the offense in all four games this year. He has marginal numbers with six interceptions and just 6.2 yards per attempt. Chad President is still on the roster but has only seen a few snaps this season after sharing the load last season for Philip Montgomery, in his fourth season as the head coach at Tulsa.

Montgomery led Tulsa to a bowl game in his first season and then produced a 10-win 2016 season before reversing course last year. Montgomery was an assistant at Houston from 2003 to 2007 before being the offensive coordinator at Baylor from 2008 to 2014 as a long-time assistant to Art Briles.

Houston is on the road the next two weeks making this home date an important one looking to take the division lead with only SMU and Tulane currently in the AAC West without a conference loss. Both of those teams are underdogs this week and will face off the following week as Houston is in a great position to move to the top of the standings.

Without producing an upset in the first month Tulsa could find itself needing a spectacular late season to reach six wins and earn a bowl bid. A 1-6 start looks realistic at this point hosting South Florida next week before a non-conference game at Arkansas. Road games at Memphis and at Navy will still be waiting in November as while Tulsa looked like a team that could take a positive step forward this season the path looks challenging. Upsetting Houston this week could change that trajectory.

Last season: Houston was 4-1 heading to Tulsa with the Hurricane 1-5 at the time and coming off a 62-28 loss at Tulane. It wasn’t a surprise when the Cougars took a 10-0 early lead but out of halftime Tulsa was a different team, feeding off of a big turnover to produce 17 points in the third quarter. Houston would get back within seven before Skipper hit a 70 yard pass play to seal the win for the Hurricane. Tulsa added two touchdowns in the final minute for a more convincing result than they deserved and it may be something the Houston players remember.

Historical Trends:

Houston is on a 42-31-1 run in home games since 2006 including a 6-2 ATS start under Applewhite including 3-0 as a double-digit home favorite.

Tulsa has covered in six of the past eight meetings between these schools going back to 2009 including covering in each of the last four meetings in Houston.

Tulsa is on a 22-11 ATS run as a double-digit underdog since 2010 with seven S/U upsets, going 12-4 ATS in that role since 2015 under Montgomery.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 4
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GSU at TROY 07:30 PM

TROY -15.0

O 54.5

TLSA at HOU 08:00 PM

TLSA +18.0

U 70.0