The Bum's 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

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Indiana needs near perfection to stop PSU
September 29, 2017

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. (AP) Although No. 4 Penn State needed a touchdown pass in the final seconds last week to keep its dream of a playoff berth alive, the down-to-the-wire game hasn't shaken the Nittany Lions' confidence.

''We consider ourselves the best offense in the country,'' offensive lineman Ryan Bates said. ''We know how special we can be with the offensive threats we have.''

The top two among them, running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Trace McSorley, have been focal points for opposing coaches for a while now. It's no different for Indiana coach Tom Allen whose Hoosiers (2-1, 0-1 Big Ten) will try to slow the Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.

Allen has seen plenty of Barkley and McSorley in the past week and knows his banged-up defense will have to have a near perfect game plan to take away Penn State's best options.

Barkley racked up 358 yards on 43 touches against Iowa and leads the country with 253 all-purpose yards per game.

''(Barkley's) making runs that are impressive, and he can catch the ball out of the backfield,'' Allen said. ''and the quarterback is just, man, McSorley is just special. He's just got that moxie that you want in a quarterback and that core confidence and that belief.''

It showed up when McSorley led a final two-minute drive ending with a dart over the middle to Juwan Johnson for the game-winning touchdown.

Even though he had his offense replicate the two-minute drive in practice, Penn State coach James Franklin would rather not have to watch another come-from-behind series in the waning moments.

He's glad his team has the experience to bank on, however.

''We've just got to be a little bit better,'' Franklin said. ''We've got to be a little bit sharper. We've got to sustain blocks a little bit longer. That was probably the difference on Saturday.''

Penn State's offensive line still may have some issues as starting right tackle Chasz Wright's status is questionable. He missed the Iowa game with an unspecified injury.

HURT HOOSIERS

Indiana has a much longer injury report and a bunch could miss another game after sitting out last week's 52-17 win over Georgia Southern.

According to Allen, the Hoosiers could likely be without starting cornerbacks A'Shon Riggins and Rashard Fant who are both dealing with unspecified injuries. Defensive linemen Nate Hoff and Juan Harris, wideout Donavan Hale, running back Mike Majette, offensive lineman Simon Stepaniak and defensive back Marcelino Ball are all also questionable according to Allen.

Linebacker Kiante Walton had surgery on an unspecified injury earlier this week and will be out indefinitely.

THE OTHER BACK

While plenty of excitement swirls around Barkley, the Hoosiers are pretty hyped for their own talented back.

Freshman Morgan Ellison turned heads in camp and finally got the chance to do so in game when he ran for 186 yards and two touchdowns in his first career start.

''(He's) playing the way - after fall camp - the way he convinced me he could play,'' Allen said.

NEW DUDS

Penn State's uniforms have seen minor tweaks and changes over the years but the Nittany Lions plaintive blue and white scheme, finished off with black cleats, has largely remained unaltered.

This weekend, they've been given an overhaul.

The Nittany Lions will wear uniforms that use elements from past editions including helmet numbers, sleeve and pants stripes and grey facemasks. Players are looking forward to one change in particular, an accessory worn only once, by the 1979 team in the Sugar Bowl.

''We're pretty excited about the white cleats, definitely,'' tight end Mike Gesicki said. ''Just because obviously, you know, here at Penn State, we're wearing black cleats every single day, every single game.''

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Minnesota's Rhoda gets another shot at Maryland
September 29, 2017

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) Conor Rhoda was pretty convinced his college career was going to end without ever having the chance to start a game at Minnesota.

That all changed last season when starting quarterback Mitch Leidner was sidelined by a concussion, thrusting Rhoda into the huddle for a key game at Maryland. One year later, Rhoda has earned the full-time starting job for the undefeated Golden Gophers (3-0) as they prepare to open Big Ten play against the Terrapins.

Rhoda was preparing to enter the real world this winter when new coach P.J. Fleck called him and asked to play one more season as a graduate student. And even though he only went 7 for 15 for 82 yards in the 31-10 victory, that Maryland game may have been one of the biggest reasons he decided to give it one more shot.

''Just those memories and those emotions and talking to my family and close friends of mine, those who had been through the journey of those four years with me, and just seeing their happiness and their excitement,'' Rhoda said this week when thinking back on his first start. ''Then just going through the week and getting to prepare again, knowing I was going to play, it was kind of like a comfort feeling.''

The Terrapins (2-1) have no such comfort. Third-stringer Max Bortenschlager will start against the Gophers after the top two quarterbacks - Tyrrell Pigrome and Kasim Hill - were lost with torn ACLs in their right knees. Bortenschlager entered early last week after Hill went down, and was sacked five times and threw two interceptions in a 38-10 loss to Central Florida.

Optimism can be derived from Bortenschlager getting a full week to prepare as the starter.

''Max has confidence in himself and we have confidence in him,'' Maryland coach D.J. Durkin said. ''Now we can tailor the game plan to him as opposed to someone else. That will certainly help him.''

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Here are some things to know about the Big Ten opener for both schools.

DEPTH CHART: Behind Bortenschlager is junior Caleb Henderson, his who sat out last season after transferring from North Carolina. Ryan Brand is the new third-stringer, a walk-on with no collegiate playing experience.

WHAT A CATCH: Maryland WR D.J. Moore has 22 catches for 313 yards and four touchdowns this season. He leads the Big Ten in TD receptions, yards receiving per game (104.3) and receptions per game (7.3).

MAKING AN ENTRANCE: Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck caught some attention during the bye week when he took a helicopter to a couple of marquee high school football games in Minnesota. He said it was the most efficient way to travel around the metro area on a Friday night. What if he crashed? ''Well, I wouldn't be here right now,'' he said. ''You would have your new football coach, your seventh in 11 years.''

PULLING REDSHIRTS: The Gophers have struggled with injuries on both sides of the ball this season, especially on the offensive line and in the secondary. Fleck said he was going to have to tap into his first freshman class a little more than he would like to do this season. Typically, coaches prefer to sit freshmen to give them one more full year of eligibility in the program. Fleck might not have that luxury. ''Playing them early, not necessarily what a coach wants to do but if it's necessary, we'll do it,'' he said. ''And then I look at the positive of everything, right, so to me, if they're going to gain the experience for the future.''

HAPPY TOGETHER: Fleck hosted former Gophers All-American safety Tyrone Carter this week for a little damage control after Carter disagreed with a few things he saw from Fleck. The two were able to find some common ground, with Carter tweeting his support for Fleck. ''I think he got a little bit of insight into a decision-making head football coach of what goes into that and why it goes into that,'' Fleck said. ''And I got an understanding from his perspective, so I get it, but that's how you solve issues, and I think our society shows that a little bit now with going out there and doing things before people meet.''

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Notre Dame, Kelly prepare for familiar face
September 29, 2017

SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) There's now a tunnel for visiting teams to enter and exit thoroughly modern Notre Dame Stadium.

Good thing. Otherwise Miami (Ohio) coach Chuck Martin might just follow Brian Kelly, his former boss at Grand Valley State and Notre Dame, back into the Irish locker room by mistake.

''I'm almost 50 and I've never not rooted for Notre Dame in my life,'' said Martin, whose RedHawks (2-2) visit No. 22 Notre Dame (3-1) this weekend. ''But Saturday at 5 o'clock I'll be rooting against Notre Dame. That will be a bit awkward for me.''

Kelly handed Martin the keys at Grand Valley State after the 2003 season to begin the two-stop (Central Michigan and Cincinnati) journey that eventually brought him to South Bend in 2010. There he was reunited with Martin, who went 74-7 with two NCAA Division II titles at Grand Valley. Martin spent four years on both sides of the ball with the Irish before leaving to rebuild the RedHawks, whose ''Cradle of Coaches'' tradition includes the late Ara Parseghian, who coached at both schools.

''Chuck and I are not going to be playing the game,'' Kelly said. ''I know how he is going to prepare his football team. He knows how I'll prepare my football team.''

The RedHawks, who started Martin's third season 0-6 before winning their final six to become bowl eligible in 2016, might very well be 4-0 if not for heartbreaking defeats at Marshall (31-26) and against Cincinnati (21-17). Notre Dame's lone setback was a 20-19 home loss in Week Two to now No. 7 Georgia.

Junior quarterback Gus Ragland, who started Miami's final six regular-season games and threw for over 1,500 yards, 17 touchdowns with just one interception, has thrown for 881 yards and eight TDs already with just two interceptions.

''He's a smart kid, can run the ball, is athletic and I think he makes a lot of good decisions,'' Notre Dame linebacker Greer Martini said of Ragland.

Martini could easily have said the same about his quarterback, Brandon Wimbush, who already has rushed for 366 yards and seven TDs and thrown for 663 yards and 3 scores.

Some other things to know as the RedHawks visit the Irish:

ON TARGET

Miami senior strong safety Tony Reid will miss the first half of the game after being ejected in the third quarter at Central Michigan for targeting with his helmet. Earlier this week, Kelly acknowledged that both the ACC and Big Ten felt that Michigan State got away with a helmet target of Wimbush.

BULLY FOR HIM

Offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey, who shouldered blame for that loss to Georgia, believes in self-motivation.

''There's things you look for just to get yourself a little juice,'' said McGlinchey, who has ''The Man in the Arena'' passage from a speech given by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1910 by his locker. ''That kind of put it all into perspective for me.''

TIME IS ON THEIR SIDE

The RedHawks are 25th nationally in time of possession, holding onto the ball for an average of 32:43 per game. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has maintained possession for only 27:15 (103rd).

DANCES WITH IRISH

Kelly danced with his team after their 38-18 victory at Michigan State secured the Megaphone Trophy for Notre Dame. Is ''Dancing With The Stars'' in Kelly's future?

''No, but my wife has informed me that I cannot decline any dances with her in the future,'' he joked.

REMEMBERING ARA

Both teams are honoring Parseghian, who died on Aug. 2 at the age of 94, with the word ''Ara'' on helmet stickers. Parseghian's widow, Kate, will present the colors prior to the national anthem.

Parseghian took over at Notre Dame in 1964, won national titles in 1966 and 1973 and then abruptly retired after the 1974 season with a record of 95-17-4. His .836 winning percentage puts him third on Notre Dame's coaching list. He twice sent congratulatory, handwritten notes to Martin.

''(The letters) mean a lot to me,'' said Martin, the product of an Irish Catholic family in suburban Chicago. ''In '73, I'm 5 years old and the first thing in the world I know about is Ara Parseghian and Notre Dame beating Alabama (in the Sugar Bowl) to win a national championship.''

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Colorado faces challenge of stopping Rosen
September 29, 2017

LOS ANGELES (AP) Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre might have found a way to stop UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen, who leads the FBS in yards passing and touchdown passes.

''Twist his ankle in warmups,'' MacIntyre joked.

The Buffaloes will have to contain Rosen and the Bruins' prolific offense at the Rose Bowl on Saturday, something they didn't have to worry about in last season's 20-10 win. Rosen didn't play because of a season-ending shoulder injury, and UCLA finished with 210 yards of offense in a dour Thursday night game.

With Rosen back, UCLA (2-2, 0-1 Pac-12) is averaging 45 points per game this season. He is throwing for 440.8 yards per game, with at least three touchdown passes in every game to give Rosen a total of 16.

''He's just throwing it so well, and he's on target,'' MacIntyre said. ''The receivers are catching it, the offensive line is protecting really well. We're going to have to play excellent football. If he sits back there all day, he'll pick you apart, so you got to try to make him uncomfortable.''

Pressuring Rosen will be all the more critical after Colorado (3-1, 0-1) failed to record a sack in its 37-10 loss to Washington last week. The Huskies didn't have to throw the ball very often, but Jake Browning had a 43-yard touchdown pass against a secondary still trying to replace two starting cornerbacks who are now with NFL teams.

Rosen threw for 480 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions against Stanford last week, but offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch would like better balance between the run and pass. Rosen threw the ball 60 times and UCLA called pass plays on its final 17 offensive snaps while trying to stage another dramatic comeback before losing 58-34.

MacIntyre wouldn't have any issues if UCLA dialed back Rosen's work load. If that doesn't work, MacIntyre joked there is always a chance the NFL could hold an early supplemental draft.

''Maybe he could leave Saturday and go play for somebody Sunday,'' MacIntyre said.

Here are some things to watch when the Buffaloes and Bruins meet for the seventh time as conference opponents:

BALL INSECURITY: UCLA has turned the ball over five times in losses at Memphis and Stanford, and that carelessness has Bruins head coach Jim Mora worried.

''Defensively, I think you have to recognize the fact that they are really taking the ball away at a high rate, and that's something that we have struggled with the last few games is just taking care of the ball,'' Mora said.

Colorado has eight takeaways, including five interceptions. But the Buffaloes have given it back eight times, with quarterback Steven Montez throwing six interceptions.

Since Colorado joined the Pac-12 in 2011, the team with the better turnover margin is 4-1 in the series.

DRILL INSTRUCTOR: UCLA added tackling drills to practice this week in hopes of addressing its putrid run defense. The Bruins are allowing 307.5 yards rushing per game, the worst total in the FBS, while their average of 6.58 yards per carry allowed is second-worst in the country.

BIRTHDAY BOY: Colorado cornerback Isaiah Oliver will turn 21 on Saturday, and he would like to celebrate with another touchdown against UCLA after returning a punt 68 yards for a score last season. Oliver is tied for the Pac-12 lead with nine passes defended this year, including two interceptions.

SOSO SO GOOD: UCLA running back Soso Jamabo rushed for 100 yards on 12 carries against Stanford, becoming the first Bruin to reach the century mark since Paul Perkins did so against Washington State on Nov. 14, 2015.

FRIENDS AND FOES: UCLA wide receiver Jordan Lasley has known Colorado's top receiver, Shay Fields, since the fourth grade, but is more excited to face linebacker Rick Gamboa and settle a score from his final game in high school.

''He ended my senior year back at Serra so I'm definitely stoked to play against him again,'' Lasley said.

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Cal and Oregon meet after losses in their Pac-12 openers
September 29, 2017

EUGENE, Ore. (AP) The introduction to Pac-12 play wasn't so great for Oregon's Willie Taggart and Cal's Justin Wilcox.

Each new coach lost his first game of the season in his league opener, setting up Saturday night's meeting at Autzen Stadium.

The Golden Bears (3-1, 0-1 Pac-12) fell 30-20 at home last weekend to USC when the Trojans forced four turnovers and outscored the Golden Bears 17-7 in a frenzied fourth quarter.

For Wilcox, who replaced Sonny Dykes at Cal, it was a teaching moment.

''They played really hard and left it out on the field, and it wasn't good enough because we didn't maximize the opportunity that we had,'' he said. ''There is no category for a moral victory. No matter the outcome you're always going to take the lessons from each game. You grow from every experience you have. That's important.''

Wilcox is from Eugene and played at Oregon, where he completed a degree in anthropology. He's not too sentimental about the homecoming - he's been back numerous times with opposing teams. But some of that familiarity is helpful in preparing his team.

''When the offense has the ball it's going to be really loud,'' he said. ''You have to work silent counts and prepare them as best we can. Quite a few guys have been there so they know.''

Oregon (3-1, 0-1) fell 37-35 at Arizona State last Saturday in a game decided on Brandon Ruiz's 41-yard field goal with 2:33 left. The Sun Devils' defense stopped two Oregon drives in the final minutes.

The Ducks, who dropped out of the Top 25 with the loss, have responded well in the aftermath, said Taggart, who took over for Mark Helfrich.

''Everyone takes credit when we win and I think when we lose we should all take credit for that loss,'' Taggart said. ''Our guys showed that the other night, coaches and players. It shows it means a lot to them and that losing sucks. When the guys feel that way you get excited because you know they're going to go out and see to it that it doesn't happen again.''

CONNECTIONS: The Wilcox family was close to Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert's family early on - a relationship forged when Wilcox's dad played for Oregon with Herbert's grandfather.

While Wilcox played down the connection because he moved away from Oregon some 17 years ago, he has tremendous respect for the Herberts and has been following the young quarterback's career.

''They're great people. I've known them for a long, long time. A ton of respect for his family. They're great folks and he's a really, really talented guy,'' the coach said.

PILING UP PENALTIES: The Ducks have 42 penalties through their first four games, making them the second-most penalized team nationally. Oregon had 14 penalties for 99 yards in last week's loss to Arizona State.

''I said it to our team after the game: We're not good enough to beat ourselves and try to win Pac-12 games,'' Taggart said. ''We have to play clean ballgames and not have that many penalties or dropped balls and expect to win those games.''

STANDING BEHIND BOWERS: Cal QB Ross Bowers completed 22 of 40 passes for 303 yards and a touchdown against the Trojans, but had four interceptions and two lost fumbles. Wilcox said he'll learn from it.

''He's not the first quarterback to have a game like that. Ross did some good things. It was just at the end it got away from him a little bit. Obviously the quarterback's always going to get the attention but not every turnover was on Ross,'' the coach said.

UNCLE MO: Taggart was caught on camera during the Arizona State loss giving an animated lecture to Tony Brooks-James, who celebrated a touchdown by spiking the ball and earned one of the Ducks' many penalties.

''That day I was ticked off that he got that penalty after making a great play,'' Taggart said. ''That was a teaching lesson again for us. Had to explain to him, `Hey, you made a great play there. Our football team's coming back, we've got the momentum. We can't let Uncle Mo get back on their side through something selfish we can control.'''

Taggart said the cameras didn't see when Taggart went back and told Brooks-James he loved him.

HISTORY: California leads the all-time series against Oregon 40-37-2. The Golden Bears won 52-49 in double-overtime last year in Berkeley to end Oregon's seven-game winning streak in the series. The Ducks are 13-6 against Cal at Autzen Stadium.

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Clemson at Virginia Tech
September 29, 2017

During the summer before I had seen Kelly Bryant play, I said Clemson will be in great shape if it can get through September with a 4-1 record. There was a challenging Week 2 date against Auburn at home, followed by a trip to Louisville that would be Bryant’s first career road start. And then there was another dangerous road assignment at Virginia Tech.

Well, here we are going into the last Saturday in September, and Dabo Swinney’s team owns a 4-0 straight-up record and a 3-1 against-the-spread mark heading into Blacksburg. Not only that, but its biggest challenger in the ACC Atlantic, Florida State, has lost its starting QB to a season-ending injury and is winless.

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Clemson installed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 50.5. The Hokies were available to win outright for a +250 payout (risk $100 to win $250).

Clemson opened the season with a 56-3 win over Kent State as a 38-point home favorite. Next, Swinney’s squad captured a 14-6 victory over Auburn as a six-point home ‘chalk.’ Brent Venables’ defense was dynamite, suffocating Auburn while giving up only 117 yards of total offense. Bryant ran for 59 yards and two TDs to provide all the offense that was needed.

Clemson went to Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in Week 3 to take on Louisville and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson. The Tigers raced out to a 33-7 in the first three quarters and coasted to a 47-21 victory as three-point road favorites.

Bryant completed 22-of-32 passes for 316 yards and one TD without an interception. He also ran for a pair of scores. Travis Etienne, a true freshman RB, produced 98 rushing yards and one TD on just six carries. Tavien Feaster added 92 rushing yards on 10 attempts, while Ray-Ray McCloud had seven receptions for 115 yards and one TD.

Clemson showed up flat for the first time all season in last week’s home game vs. Boston College, which came into Death Valley as a 33.5-point road underdog. With 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter, Clemson and BC were tied at 7-7. However, a six-yard TD run by Adam Choice put the Tigers in the lead for good.

Etienne broke a 50-yard TD run with 5:41 left to give Clemson some breathing room with a 21-7 advantage. Then with 2:50 remaining, Bryant put the game on ice with a four-yard TD run. Etienne added a 10-yard TD scamper with 52 ticks left to close out a 34-7 non-covering triumph. The 41 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 53-point total.

Bryant threw for only 140 passing yards and was intercepted twice, his first picks since throwing one in the opener vs. Kent State The junior signal caller made amends by rushing 22 times for 106 yards and two TDs. Etienne added 113 rushing yards and two scores on merely nine attempts. Feaster contributed 73 rushing yards on 20 totes, while Hunter Renfroe had six receptions for 53 yards.

Junior DE Austin Bryant had four tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss and three QB hurries vs. BC. He has a team-high five sacks on the season.

In the first four starts of his career, Bryant has completed 74-of-109 passes (67.9%) for 873 yards with a 2/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 268 yards and seven TDs. Etienne has a team-high 292 rushing yards and four TDs, with an astounding 12.7 yards-per-carry average. Feaster has run for 249 yards and one TD, while Choice has 110 rushing yards and three TDs.

Bryant’s favorite targets are McCloud and Renfroe. McCloud has snagged 18 catches for 218 yards and one TD, while Renfroe has 21 receptions for 202 yards.

Clemson is ranked No. 3 in the nation in total defense, limiting foes to 227.0 yards per game. The Tigers are third in scoring defense, holding opponents to 9.2 points per game. They are 12th in the country versus the run and ninth against the pass.

As for the Clemson offense, it is 11th in the nation in total yards (513.5 YPG), 13th in rushing (275.2 YPG) and 30th in scoring with a 37.8 PPG average.

Virginia Tech (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games dating back to last season. Justin Fuente’s second team opened the year with a 31-24 win over West Virginia in Landover, Maryland. The Hokies took the cash as five-point favorites, stopping the Mountaineers down in the red zone in the game’s final minute.

Redshirt freshman Josh Jackson enjoyed a stellar collegiate debut, rushing for 111 yards and one TD on 11 attempts. Jackson completed 15-of-26 throws for 235 yards and one TD without an interception. Senior WR Cam Phillips had seven receptions for 138 yards and one TD, while RB Travon McMillian scored on a three-yard TD run with 6:30 remaining to provide the winning points.

After garnering the win that will age well against a quality WVU team that’s won three in a row since then, Virginia Tech has taken it to three cupcake opponents. The Hokies have won 27-0 vs. Delaware, 64-17 at East Carolina and 38-0 vs. Old Dominion.

For the season, Jackson has connected on 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,127 yards with a stellar 11/1 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 144 yards and one TD, averaging 4.5 YPC. McMillian has a team-high 162 rushing yards, one TD and a 5.1 YPC average. Six Virginia Tech players have rushed for at least 97 yards.

Jackson’s favorite target is Phillips, who leads the nation in receiving yards with 523 on 34 receptions. Sean Savoy has 14 catches for 163 yards and one TD.

Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) for the Tigers, who saw the ‘over’ hit in their lone previous road contest. Clemson’s games have averaged combined scores of 47.0 PPG. The Hokies have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1-1 overall, 2-0-1 in their three home outings.

Clemson has won four in a row in this rivalry, with Virginia Tech’s last victory coming in a 41-23 win as a 5.5-point road underdog in 2007. The Tigers held off the Hokies by a 42-35 count as 10-point ‘chalk’ at last year’s ACC Championship Game. Virginia Tech was driving inside Clemson territory when it ran out of downs late in the fourth quarter. The 77 combined points soared ‘over’ the 58.5-point tally.

Clemson beat Virginia Tech 38-17 in 2012 and knocked off the Hokies twice in 2011, covering the number and winning by double-digit margins in all three instances.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern from Lane Stadium, with ABC providing the telecast.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between Clemson and Virginia Tech.

-- Clemson is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a road favorite. This is Virginia Tech’s first game as a home underdog on Fuente’s watch.

-- Oklahoma State took its first loss of the season at home last week when it dropped a 44-31 decision to TCU. Mike Gundy’s team will be without starting OG Larry Williams (leg) for the rest of the season. The Cowboys, who are 10-point favorites at undefeated Texas Tech, might be without OT Zachary Crabtree, last year’s second-team All-Big-12 choice who is ‘questionable’ with a toe injury. Texas Tech’s leading tackler in 2016, LB Jordyn Brooks, is a question mark due to a knee injury. The Red Raiders are 5-4 ATS in their nine games as home underdogs during Kliff Kingsbury’s five-year tenure. The total is 84.5 points, the highest on the board in Week 5.

-- Stanford starting QB Keller Chryst (4/0 TD-INT) has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ vs. Arizona State due to a concussion. K.J. Costello is expected to get the starting nod against the Sun Devils, who are off a 37-35 win over Oregon as 14.5-point home underdogs.

-- Boston College QB Anthony Brown has been upgraded to ‘probable’ vs. Central Michigan.

-- Twelve teams remain unbeaten for our purposes. The best ATS squad are Duke (4-0), Utah (4-0), SMU (4-0), Buffalo (4-0), New Mexico State (4-0), Texas Tech (3-0), Fresno State (3-0), No. Illinois (3-0), Southern Miss (3-0), Marshall (3-0), Ga. Tech (3-0) and UCF (2-0).

-- Seventeen teams haven’t earned a spread cover yet: UTEP (0-4), FSU (0-2), Charlotte (0-4), Bowling Green (0-4), Louisiana (0-4), Missouri (0-4), Oregon State (0-4), UConn (0-3), BYU (0-4), Arkansas (0-3), Florida (0-3), Western Ky. (0-4), Temple (0-4), Ole Miss (0-4), Troy (0-4), Pitt (0-3-1) and Georgia Southern (0-2-1).

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RB Love learned well from McCaffrey
September 29, 2017

STANFORD, Calif. (AP) �� Long before he became the nation's leading running back, Stanford's Bryce Love spent two seasons as a backup to 2015 Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffrey. It was McCaffrey who helped teach Love to dream big but remain focused on the bottom line.

That's why when Love piled up a career-best 263 yards against UCLA last week it wasn't really all that shocking. Nor was it a surprise when Love opted to stay on the sidelines for the final four minutes, even though he needed 25 more yards to break McCaffrey's single-game school record.

It was, Love insisted afterward, the right thing to do and the same thing that McCaffrey would have done.

"The big thing with it . and Christian had the same thing . just always believe, have that belief," Love said. "I'm not big with numbers and stuff like that but why not come in and have however many yards? The big thing with me and him is just we always wanted to win."

The way things have played out so far, Love could have much more in common with McCaffrey.

Love not only leads the country with 787 rushing yards heading into Saturday's home game against Arizona State, he's on pace to join McCaffrey as the only two players in school history to run for 2,000 yards or more in a single season.

"We all knew he had blazing speed, even his freshman year," wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside said. "We all saw the potential in him. Having guys like Christian in front of him for Bryce to take notes on is a pretty good role model."

Stanford has leaned on Love more than originally anticipated this season because of the team's increasing uncertainty at quarterback.

"He's got so much speed and so much explosion, we all know this was going to happen," Cardinal coach David Shaw said. "How many yards and what people say, you never know. But we knew he was a running back and we knew he was going to get the tough yards. All he needed was carries."

Here are a few other things to watch for when Stanford (2-2, 1-1 Pac-12 ) hosts Arizona State (2-2, 1-0):

TOUGH CROWD: Stanford has already faced what are likely to be two of the top quarterbacks in next year's NFL draft in USC's Sam Darnold and UCLA's Josh Rosen. Things won't get much easier this week. Arizona State's Manny Wilkins is third in the Pac-12 with 1,271 yards and eight touchdowns. Wilkins has also tied the Sun Devils' school record with his current streak of 188 consecutive passes without an interception.

"He's really matured and working hard on being efficient fundamentally and not putting the ball in jeopardy," Arizona State coach Todd Graham said. "He's played at a level all four weeks for us to win. I've got a lot of confidence in Manny where he's at now."

WAITING GAME: Shaw declined to name a starting quarterback earlier this week because he was awaiting news on Keller Chryst's health. Chryst suffered a first-quarter injury that knocked him out of the game against UCLA, leaving the remainder of the game in the hands of backups KJ Costello and Ryan Burns. "If Keller doesn't play it's some combination of those two guys," Shaw said. "If Keller does play, then maybe some combination of those three guys. We'll see how it goes."

BACK-TO-BACK: Fresh off their 37-35 win over Oregon, the Sun Devils will attempt to go 2-0 in conference for the first time since 2012. Arizona State last registered consecutive Pac-12 wins in 2015.

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Saturday's Best Bets
September 29, 2017

College Football Week 5 Best Bets

This week we've got another Saturday chalk-full of college games to break down, although there are only a couple of games that pit Top 25 teams against one another.

Those games are an SEC showdown between #24 Mississippi State and #13 Auburn, and a ACC Championship game rematch from 2016 with #2 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech. That ACC clash is likely going to get more eyeballs on it because it's the featured primetime game this week, but it's actually the other game I mentioned that looks to be the better one from a betting standpoint. It's that SEC battle that begins this week's card of college football best bets.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #1: Mississippi State/Auburn Over 51

This is a total that saw plenty of action on Thursday as the opening umber of 49.5 hit as high as 53, before finally settling back down to 51. 51 is a key number in football totals betting and although it's not the best number we've had out there for this play, it's still a decent one that should be surpassed.

All that movement came despite the majority of tickets being written on the 'under' for this game according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentages. Support for the 'under' is not hard to get given that Mississippi State put up a measly 3 points in another high profile SEC game a week ago. The 31-3 loss to Georgia was one of the worst ones this program has experienced in awhile, and especially disappointing after they just had dominated LSU the week prior (37-7) as a touchdown underdog. With Auburn yet to allow more than 14 points against in any of their four games this year, many bettors see this being a game where points come at a premium, and recent results from Mississippi State's offense and Auburn's defense are a big reason why. An 0-5 O/U run in this rivalry the last five years doesn't hurt that cause either.

However, when you look at Mississippi State's complete body of work so far this year, the three points they put up last week sticks out like a sore thumb. The Bulldogs had put up at least 37 points on all three previous opponents, as this is a SEC team that's built to win with their offense, specifically their running attack.

QB Nick Fitzgerald is a big-body QB that's straight out of the Dak Prescott mold for this program. He loves to run the ball (41 attempts for 5 TD's on 7 yards average per carry), and his duel-threat ability at the position creates many problems for opposing defenses. Oh and by the way, Auburn's lone loss this year came against Clemson when they allowed Clemson QB to rush for 59 yards and 2 TD's.

On the flip side, we saw that Mississippi State's defense has some significant holes in it last week, and has 9-point home favorites, Auburn should be able to take advantage of them. The Tigers finally burst out this year by hanging 51 on Missouri last week, and they should threaten 35+ here. Mississippi State has allowed an average of 26 points per road game so far this year, and Auburn is a team that's quite similar to Georgia. Mississippi State is 4-1 O/U in their last five on the road, so look for that trend to continue here.

Finally, the Bulldogs have plenty of other favorable 'over' trends entering this game as well. They are 11-4 O/U after scoring fewer than 20 points last time out, 6-1 O/U the last seven times they've lost by 20+ points, 5-2 O/U in their last seven SEC games, and both 4-0 O/U after a SU loss and an ATS loss (not necessarily the same game). With the way the line has moved this week given the heavy 'under' action it's received, I'm joining the minority here in expecting this one to be a shootout.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #2: Oregon -15

Oregon is coming off their first loss of the year last week, as they were stunned as two touchdown favorites at Arizona State. A poor 1st quarter really did them in and they were left to play catchup the rest of the way until a Sun Devils FG with under three minutes left gave ASU the eventual 37-35 win. Teams coming off their first defeat this deep into the season can be a cause for concern, but in all honesty, Oregon's number was extremely inflated on the road last week as they shouldn't be laying double digits against anyone in Pac 12 play when they are the visitors.

However, thanks to that shocking result, and California's somewhat shocking result in hanging with #5 USC for a little more than three quarters, the perception on this game has completely flipped. Many saw California give USC all they could handle a week ago and believe this very young team is poised to take the next step. This week they are getting plenty of support from bettors as they believe this Oregon point spread is inflated once again.

Yet, getting the Oregon Ducks on your home field and getting them on their home field are two completely different entities. For all of the flaws Oregon does and may have, they are still a dynamic, explosive, and extremely fast offense at home that can put up points in a hurry. In two home games this year they've scored 42 points in the 1st halves alone, and when you do that it typically doesn't matter how many holes your defense may have.

This Ducks team is looking to rebound in a big way after last week's performance, and running up the score on a California team who shot their load against USC last week is just the spot to do it. This is Cal's first Pac-12 road game in 2017, and they were 0-4 SU and ATS on the road in conference play a year ago.

Finally, this is also a bit of a revenge game for the Ducks who were stunned out of the gate a year ago by this Golden Bears team. California won the game 52-49 in OT as small home underdogs, but it was the 31-14 halftime lead that really hamstrung Oregon's playcalling. The Ducks definitely took this team lightly a year ago, and that's not going to happen again in 2017, as this game could end up being a route from start to finish for the Ducks.

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CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/29/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00

09/28/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00

09/24/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

09/23/2017 31-33-1 48.44% -26.50

09/22/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

09/21/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

09/16/2017 20-26-3 43.48% -43.00

09/15/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50

09/14/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

09/09/2017 19-21-3 47.50% -20.50

09/08/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

09/07/2017 0-1-0 0.00% -5.50

09/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

09/03/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50

09/02/2017 11-21-0 34.38% -60.50

09/01/2017 6-3-0 66.67% +13.50

08/31/2017 9-4-0 69.23% +23.00

08/26/2017 5-5-0 50.00% -2.50

Totals:.......125 - 126 - 6.....49.80%....-68.00


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS

09/29/2017....................1 - 0.............+ 5.00..................2 - 2...............- 1.00

09/28/2017....................0 - 1..............- 5.50..................0 - 0 ...............00.00

09/24/2017....................1 - 0..............+ 5.00.................1 - 0...............+ 5.00

09/23/2017....................9 - 16 - 1.......- 35.00.................2 - 7..............- 28.50

09/22/2017....................2 - 0..............+10.00.................2 - 0..............+10.00

09/21/2017....................1 - 0..............+ 5.00..................1 - 0..............+ 5.00

09/16/2017....................7 - 9 - 1.........- 14.50.................3 - 6...............-12.50

09/15/2017....................2 - 0..............+10.00.................1 - 2...............- 6.00

Totals:........................23 -26 - 2...........- 21.00...............12 - 17.............- 25.00

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Saturday's Week 5 NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds

(17) South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates (+21, 75)

* The Bulls have scored 30 or more points in 21 consecutive games, the fourth-longest streak all-time. USF & Alabama are the only two teams in Division I to rank in top 10 in rushing yards and rushing defense.

* The Pirates rank dead last in Division I in scoring defense (48 points per game), total defense (624.8 yards per game) and pass efficiency against (192.2). Redshirt senior Thomas Sirk ranks eighth among active QBs in rushing touchdowns (16).

LINE HISTORY: The Bulls opened this matchup as about a 24-point road favorite at most books, but despite a 4-0 SU record they haven't been a good bet this season and bettors have faded them down to -21. The total opened at a sky high 74 and bettors hammered the Over, moving the number as high as 80.5, before coming back down to the current number of 75.

TRENDS:

* USF is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* ECU is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.
* Over is 9-2 in ECU's last 11 games in September.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Northwestern Wildcats at (10) Wisconsin Badgers (-14.5, 49)

* The Wildcats are 18-4 when RB Justin Jackson rushes for 100 or more yards. The Northwestern defense is allowing opponents to convert 47.2 percent of their third-down opportunities, the 18th-worst mark in Division I.

* The Badgers are allowing an average of 10 points per game - fourth-best in the nation - and have yet to surrender a point in the second half so far this season. Wisconsin is 26-7 against Big Ten foes over the past five seasons.

LINE HISTORY: This line has mostly held steady at the opening number of Badgers -14.5. It's the total that has seen more action. Since opening at 51, the number has been bet down to the current number of 49.

TRENDS:

* Wisconsin is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following a bye week.
* Northwestern is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Wisconsin.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Wisconsin's last four conference games.

Vanderbilt Commodores at (20) Florida Gators (-9, 40.5)

* The Commodores average 87.5 rushing yards per game, ranking them 121st out of 129 Division I teams. But Vanderbilt's defense has held teams to seven red-zone scores in 11 trips - the 13th-best rate in the nation.

* Down nine players suspended prior to the season, the depleted Gators rank 89th in pass offense (200.7 yards per game), 101st in rushing (121.7) and 76th in points allowed (26.7). Florida also sits 97th in third-down conversion rate (34.1 percent).

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Gators as 9.5-point home favorites and were bet as high as -10, but have since come down to the current number of Florida -9. The total opened at 42 and has been bet down a point and a half to the current number of 40.5.

TRENDS:

* Florida is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.
* Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Florida.
* Under is 13-3-1 in Vanderbilt's last 17 road games.
* Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

(8) Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers (+7.5, 47)

* Injured Bulldogs QB Jacob Eason (knee) has been working with the second-team offense, but his status for the weekend hasn't yet been determined. Georgia has scored on all 13 trips to the red zone in 2017, with 10 of those drives ending in touchdowns.

* The Volunteers have given up scores on all but one of opponents' 11 red-zone visits so far this season, ranking them outside the top 100 nationally. DT Shy Tuttle is expected to start Saturday despite suffering an orbital bone injury last weekend.

LINE HISTORY: Georgia opened this SEC showdown favored by a converted touchdown on the road and have been bet up slightly to the current number of Georgia -7.5. The total has been bet down slightly, moving from 48 to 47.

TRENDS:

* Georgia is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in Georgia's last five conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

Indiana Hoosiers at (4) Penn State Nittany Lions (-18, 63)

* Hoosiers CB A’Shon Riggins, S Marcelino Ball and DT Nate Hoff are all considered questionable for Saturday after suffering injuries last week. Indiana is inside the top 50 in passing yards per game but its 11.1 yards per completion ranks 96th.

* The Nittany Lions come in with a plus-6 turnover differential on the season, tied for the fifth-best total in Division I. Penn State's 10.3 tackles for loss per game is the best rate in the nation, and it ranks tied for 18th in sacks per contest (3.0).

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Nittany Lions as big 17.5-point home favorites over the Hoosiers and that number has moved up just a bit to the current number of Penn State -18. The total has seen plenty of movement however. The number opened around 61 and climbed as high as 69.5 at some books, before dropping back down drastically to the current number of 63.

TRENDS:

* Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Penn State is 7-0-2 ATS in its last nine home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Indiana's last seven road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Penn State's last six games following a ATS loss.

(25) Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+7.5, 47.5)

* Seminoles receiving leader Auden Tate is considered day-to-day with a shoulder injury suffered in the second half of last week's game against N.C. State. Florida State is averaging a paltry 2.7 YPC with zero rushing touchdowns through two games.

* The Demon Deacons offense has turned the ball over just once, tied with Miami, Virginia and LSU for the second-fewest turnovers in the nation. Wake Forest is holding foes to a 31.4 percent conversion rate on third downs, ranking 40th in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The Seminoles hit the board at most books as 7.5-point road favorites and that's where the number currently sits. The total opened at 47 and has bounced back-and-forth between that and 48. It is currently at 47.5.

TRENDS:

* FSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a ATS loss.
* Wake Forest is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Under is 8-2 in FSU's last 10 road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wake Forest's last six home games.

(24) Mississippi State Bulldogs at (15) Auburn Tigers (-9, 51)

* The Bulldogs are one of only three Power 5 teams to surrender one sack or fewer so far this season, joining Minnesota and Iowa State. MSU also has yet to lose a fumble in 2017, the only team in the SEC to have that distinction.

* The Tigers are limiting opponents to 236.3 yards per game, the fourth-best average in Division I. RBs Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson are expected to play this week, marking the first time this season they'll appear in the same game."

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this matchup with the Tigers as 9.5-point home favorites and they moved the number to Auburn -10, before coming down to the current number of -9. The total opened around 49 and reached as high as 53 before coming back down to the current number of 51.

TRENDS:

* Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 6-1 in Mississippi State's last seven games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

Troy Trojans at (22) Louisiana State Tigers (-20.5, 48.5)

* The Trojans have surrendered just two rushing touchdowns in 2017 while holding opponents to 95.5 yards per game on the ground, the 14th-best rate in the nation. QB Brandon Silvers has thrown for multiple TDs just once in his last nine games.

* Tigers RB Derrius Guice (knee) is considered questionable for this weekend; it's the same designation he had last week, when he played but finished just 14 yards on eight carries. LSU has allowed foes to score on nine of 10 red-zone trips.

LINE HISTORY: LSU hit the board at most books as 19.5-point favorites and rose as high as -21, before settling at the current number of -20.5. The total opened at 49 and is down slightly to 48.5.

TRENDS:

* Troy is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.
* LSU is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games in September.
* Over is 15-1 in Troy's last 16 vs. SEC opponents.
* Under is 6-1-2 in LSU's last nine games following a SU win.

(9) Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+29.5, 52)

* The Buckeyes rank first in the Big Ten and 13th in Division I with 319.2 passing yards per game. Head coach Urban Meyer says he will continue to roll with a six-man wide receiver rotation; Eight different wideouts have at least one touchdown catch.

* The Scarlet Knights rank last in the Big Ten in yards per play (4.8) and passing yards per game (163.5). Rutgers has held opponents to 19 conversions on 63 third-down opportunities; that 30.2-percent success rate ranks 28th in the nation.

LINE HISTORY: The Buckeyes opened as about hefty 29-point road chalk at most books and were briefly bet up to -30, before settling at the current number of Ohio State -29.5. The total opened around 51.5 and was bet up to 54m before coming back down to 52.5.

TRENDS:

* Ohio State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in their last six games in September.
* Over is 4-1 in Ohio State's last five conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Rutgers' last seven games overall.

(14) Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+10, 84,5)

* Cowboys QB Mason Rudolph has 300 or more passing yards and multiple touchdowns in five consecutive starts dating back to last season. Oklahoma State is outscoring opponents 66-6 in the first quarter.

* The Red Raiders rank second in the nation in passing yards per game (437.7) while completing nearly 75 percent of their attempts as a team. Texas Tech's plus-7 turnover margin is tied for fourth in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The Pokes opened as about 11-point road faves for this Big 12 matchup and after last week's poor showing, bettors faded them down to -8. But they have since bounced back to Oklahoma State -10. The total hit the board at a massive 81 and bettors still didn't think that was enough, moving the number up to 84.5.

TRENDS:

* Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a ATS loss.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 6-1 in Texas Tech's last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

(6) Washington Huskies at Oregon State Beavers (+26.5, 59.5)

* The Huskies rank tied for sixth in Division I in turnover margin (plus-6), 10th in scoring defense (11.8 points per game) and 11th in scoring (44.5 ppg). Washington runs just 59.3 plays per game, fewest in the Pac-12.

* Beavers RB Ryan Nall is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry at home compared to 7.8 YPC on the road. Oregon State has scored on all nine of its trips to the red zone, one of 17 Divison I teams with a perfect record there.

LINE HISTORY: The Huskies opened as 26.5-point road favorites and there has been very little movement off that number. The total hit the board at 63 and it's been all Under money since, with number coming down to 59.5.

TRENDS:

* Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Over is 8-1 in Oregon State's last nine games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings in Oregon State.

Mississippi Rebels at (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (-27, 58)

* WR A.J. Brown and DE Victor Evans returned to practice and are expected to play, while C Sean Rawlings is also hopeful to return despite not practicing Wednesday. Ole Miss averages a paltry 2.8 yards per carry with just two rushing touchdowns to date.

* The Crimson Tide rank fifth in the nation in rushing yards (303.3). Alabama has surrendered just one rushing touchdown on the season while limiting opponents to 70.3 rushing yards per game, fifth-fewest in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the No. 1 team in the country as big 28-point home chalk for this SEC matchup and they have been bet down slightly to the current number of Alabama -27. The total opened at 59 and is down to 58.

TRENDS:

* Ole Miss is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Alabama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Ole Miss' last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Alabama.

Northern Illinois Huskies at (21) San Diego State Aztecs (-10, 49)

* The Huskies average just over 26 minutes per game in time of possession, the 19th-lowest average in the nation. DE Sutton Smith leads Division I in tackles for loss (9.5) and also has three sacks and a fumble recovery.

* RB Rashaad Penny ranks second in the country in rushing yards per game (179), all-purpose yards per game (230) and total touchdowns (nine). San Diego State averages just 169.3 passing yards per contest, 110th nationally.

LINE HISTORY: The Aztecs hit the board as around 2.5-point home favorites at most books, but since then have moved down to the current number of San Diego State -10. The total opened at 44.5 and bettors love the over, moving the number all the way up to 49.

TRENDS:

* Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.
* San Diego State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a ATS win.
* Under is 7-1 in Northern Illinois last eight games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in San Diego State's last six games following a ATS win.

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NCAAF

Saturday, September 30

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Saturday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Clemson at Virginia Tech
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Clemson Tigers at Virginia Tech Hokies (+7, 50.5)

Defending national champion Clemson has passed a few early tests already but will face their biggest one yet on Saturday. The second-ranked Tigers put their school-record 11-game road winning streak on the line when they visit No. 12 Virginia Tech in an ACC showdown between unbeaten teams.

Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente knows his team’s margin for error is next to nothing against the Tigers, who are explosive on offense and dominant on defense.

"It's like defusing a bomb,” Fuente told reporters. “Like one small snip of the wire that's incorrect and, 'Boom!' You blow your hands off. That's how talented and how good they are."

Clemson already has beaten two ranked opponents, holding off Auburn in a defensive struggle and routing Louisville on the road, and pulled away in the fourth quarter of a 34-7 win over Boston College last week. The Hokies survived a tough test in a 31-24 win over West Virginia to open the season but have coasted past inferior competition over the last three weeks.

TV: 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the road team favored by 6.5 points and was bet all the way up to 8 but appears to be settling at the key number 7. The total opened at 51.5 but has been bet down to 50.5 at most shops.

INJURY REPORT:

Clemson - TE Garrett Williams (doubtful, knee), CB Marcus Edward (doubtful, foot), RB Adam Choice (probable, ankle), CB Mark Fields (probable, gluteus).

Virginia Tech - RB Steven Peoples (questionable, ankle), DB Divine Deablo (questionable, foot), CB Adonis Alexander (questionable, disciplinary)

ABOUT CLEMSON (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U): The Tigers boast one of the nation’s best defenses, ranking third nationally in total defense (227 yards per game) and scoring defense (9.2 points) despite a challenging early schedule. The offense has been remarkably consistent as well, considering all Clemson lost at the skill positions. Quarterback Kelly Bryant has been terrific, passing for 873 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions while rushing for 268 yards and seven scores, and freshman running back Travis Etienne (292 yards, four TDs) averages 12.7 yards per carry.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-2-1 O/U): The Hokies have long been regarded for their stellar defense and special-teams work, but they’re putting up huge offensive numbers so far this season. Redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Jackson has been superb, completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,127 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, albeit against weak competition. Jackson has a tremendous weapon in receiver Cam Phillips, who has recorded 34 receptions for 523 yards and five touchdowns through four contests.

TRENDS:

*Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
*Virginia Tech is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.
*The Over is 6-0 in Clemson's last six road games.
*The Under is 18-8 in Virginia Tech's last 26 conference games.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Tigers are getting 56 percent of the action from users and the Over is the popular choice with a 52 percent pick rate.


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Saturday's NCAAF Week 5 action report: Bettors riding with road faves, but action is light
Patrick Everson

September closes out with a college football Saturday, highlighted by a prime-time showdown in the Atlantic Coast Conference. We check in on the action with Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, which operates more than 100 sportsbooks throughout Nevada.

No. 2 Clemson Tigers at No. 12 Virginia Tech Hokies – Open: +7.5; Move: +7; Move: +7.5

Defending national champion Clemson has won nine in a row SU (6-3 ATS) dating to last season. The Tigers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) had a lot of trouble with Boston College in Week 4, in a game tied at 7 through three quarters, but Dabo Swinney’s troops racked up four fourth-quarter touchdowns to win 34-7 as a 33.5-point home favorite.

Virginia Tech is also out of the gate 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, though this will mark its toughest game by far, having previously faced West Virginia, Delaware, East Carolina and Old Dominion. In Week 4 against ODU, the Hokies breezed to a 38-0 victory as a 28.5-point chalk.

“Virginia Tech, we’re getting three times more money on account, so the sharp money is on Virginia Tech,” Bernanke said of action on this 8 p.m. ET kickoff. “But over the counter, we’re seeing all public money on Clemson. This game’s gonna a be a big test for Virginia Tech, to see if they’re for real, and Clemson, they’ve become everyone’s darlings since winning the national championship. They’re one of our top five public teams now.”

The line opened Clemson -7.5 at CG Technology books, including The Cosmopolitan and the Venetian on the Vegas Strip. That sharp VaTech action forced a cup of coffee at 7 on Wednesday before the line quickly returned to 7.5.

“This line I anticipate gets to 8 the day of game,” Bernanke said of expectations for today at CG Technology books, including The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. “We’ll see an influx of public money on Clemson.”

William Hill opened the Tigers -7 and has been at 7.5 since Wednesday on lower-than-anticipated action.

“We’re a little high on Clemson money, but very disappointing handle on this game right now. It’s very light,” Bogdanovich said.

No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers – Open: +7.5: Move: +7; Move: +7.5; Move: +8; Move: +8.5

Georgia turned what was expected to be an early SEC showdown into a blowout victory last week. The Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) gave almost nothing to previously unbeaten upstart Mississippi State in a 31-3 victory as a 2.5-point home fave.

Tennessee (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) barely escaped what would have been a hugely embarrassing loss in Week 4. The Volunteers held on for an uninspired 17-13 win over Massachusetts as a heavy 28-point home chalk.

“Tennessee last week looked terrible,” said Bernanke, who then alluded to the line on this game when it was first put up months ago as one of CG’s Games of the Year. “The look-ahead line on this game was Tennessee -1, if you can believe it. Right now, we’re getting all Georgia money across the board. We can’t get a Tennessee ticket right now. Georgia’s dismantling of Mississippi State, everyone noticed that, and it’s certainly showing up at the betting windows.”

The Bulldogs and Vols kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders – Open: +8.5; Move: +9; Move: +10; Move: +9.5; Move: +10

Oklahoma State was another early season darling, particularly with public bettors, but the bottom fell out in Week 4. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) laid an egg at home against a top-20 Texas Christian unit, losing 44-31 giving 9 points.

Texas Tech (3-0 SU and ATS) is coming off an upset road victory. The Red Raiders topped Houston 27-24 as a 7-point underdog and will be an even larger pup for this Big 12 showdown.

“Again, very little betting so far,” Bogdanovich lamented of action for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff. “We’re just a little high on Oklahoma State. I think there’s a little sharp money there, but disappointing handle on this game, to say the least.”

CG opened the Pokes -8.5 and got as high as 11 before falling back to 10.5 on Friday.

“We’re seeing all sharp money and public money on Oklahoma State,” said Bernanke, who was more intrigued by the total of 84, the highest this year in college football. “Right now, all I’ve seen is over money.”

No. 24 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 15 Auburn Tigers – Open: -9.5; Move: -10; Move: -9.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5

Last week, Auburn (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) won and cashed in the same game for the first time this season, and in quite convincing fashion. The Tigers boatraced Missouri 51-14 laying 18.5 points on the road.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State (3-1 SU and ATS) got the aforementioned reality check at Georgia, losing 31-3 as a 2.5-point ‘dog. Yet this line has been ticking down since topping out at Auburn -10 on Tuesday, with kickoff set for 6 p.m. ET.

“There’s been some sharp money for Mississippi State, but no great shakes,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s just very light handle all around this week. I don’t know why. I guess all the bettors got broke last week.”

Perhaps last Sunday’s NFL action played a part, as underdogs went 11-5 ATS and the sportsbooks had a field day.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State Spartans – Open: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -4.5; Move: -4

Iowa had an outstanding chance to pull an upset over Penn State, scoring a touchdown inside the final two minutes to take a 19-15 lead at home last week. But the Hawkeyes (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) couldn’t make it hold up, losing on a touchdown on the last play of the game, 21-19 as a 13-point underdog.

Michigan State (2-1 SU and ATS) was dealt its first setback of the season in Week 4, tumbling to Notre Dame 38-18 catching 3 points at home.

“Pretty good two-way action so far, and I think it’ll continue to be pretty good two-way,” Bogdanovich said of activity for this 4 p.m. ET start. “Iowa played pretty good last week.”

Other games seeing notable movement/action:

• South Florida at East Carolina: ECU’s three losses came by a combined score of 154-51, and even in the Pirates’ lone win last week, they allowed 38 points to Connecticut in a 41-38 road win getting 5 points. Yet they’re seeing some money against No. 17 South Florida, moving the line from 24 to 21 for this noon ET start. “Just some sharp money for the ‘dog. So good luck with that,” Bogdanovich joked.

• Navy at Tulsa: The Midshipmen opened -4.5 and were bet up to 7.5 in a 3:30 p.m. ET contest. “That’s sharp money on Navy. Tulsa had a pitiful performance against New Mexico.” Indeed, the Golden Hurricane were 10-point home favorites and lost outright, 16-13.

• Colorado at UCLA: The Bruins have gone from -6.5 to -7.5. “Early money was probably sharp money. They laid the 6.5 and the 7.” It’s a late kickoff, at 10:30 p.m. ET.

• Central Michigan at Boston College: The Eagles are up to 10.5-point chalk, after opening at 7.5 at William Hill books for this 1 p.m. ET meeting. “That’s definitely sharp money for Boston College.”

• San Jose State at UNLV: The Rebels opened -12 at William Hill and now find themselves 14-point faves for this 10:30 p.m. matchup. “I’m assuming it’s sharp money. They laid 12 and 13. We’re high on the Rebels.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/29/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00

09/28/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00

09/24/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

09/23/2017 31-33-1 48.44% -26.50

09/22/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

09/21/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

09/16/2017 20-26-3 43.48% -43.00

09/15/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50

09/14/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

09/09/2017 19-21-3 47.50% -20.50

09/08/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

09/07/2017 0-1-0 0.00% -5.50

09/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

09/03/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50

09/02/2017 11-21-0 34.38% -60.50

09/01/2017 6-3-0 66.67% +13.50

08/31/2017 9-4-0 69.23% +23.00

08/26/2017 5-5-0 50.00% -2.50

Totals:.......125 - 126 - 6.....49.80%....-68.00


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS

09/29/2017....................1 - 0.............+ 5.00..................2 - 2...............- 1.00

09/28/2017....................0 - 1..............- 5.50..................0 - 0 ...............00.00

09/24/2017....................1 - 0..............+ 5.00.................1 - 0...............+ 5.00

09/23/2017....................9 - 16 - 1.......- 35.00.................2 - 7..............- 28.50

09/22/2017....................2 - 0..............+10.00.................2 - 0..............+10.00

09/21/2017....................1 - 0..............+ 5.00..................1 - 0..............+ 5.00

09/16/2017....................7 - 9 - 1.........- 14.50.................3 - 6...............-12.50

09/15/2017....................2 - 0..............+10.00.................1 - 2...............- 6.00

Totals:........................23 -26 - 2...........- 21.00...............12 - 17.............- 25.00

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

USF at ECU 12:00 PM

USF -21.0 *****

RICE at PITT 12:00 PM

O 51.5

NMSU at ARK 12:00 PM

NMSU +17.5 *****

HOU at TEM 12:00 PM

TEM +12.0 *****

NW at WIS 12:00 PM

NW +15.0

MD at MINN 12:00 PM

MINN -13.0 *****

VAN at FLA 12:00 PM

VAN +9.0

UNC at GT 12:00 PM

GT -10.0 *****

SYR at NCST 12:20 PM

SYR +14.0

CMU at BC 01:00 PM

U 51.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

UTEP at ARMY 03:30 PM

O 48.5

NAVY at TLSA 03:30 PM

NAVY -8.5

IND at PSU 03:30 PM

PSU -17.5 *****

UGA at TENN 03:30 PM

UGA -9.0 *****

BAY at KSU 03:30 PM

KSU -14.5

O 55.5 *****

BUFF at KENT 03:30 PM

U 42.0

OHIO at MASS 03:30 PM

O 53.0

FSU at WAKE 03:30 PM

WAKE +7.0 *****