The Bum's 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

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NCAAF

Thursday, October 5

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Thursday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Louisville at NC State
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Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack (+3, 65.5)

North Carolina State served notice it was a team to be reckoned with in late September when it toppled then-No. 11 Florida State in Tallahassee, and coach Dave Doeren's squad will get another chance to prove it has some staying power less than two weeks later. The 24th-ranked Wolfpack eye their first 3-0 start in ACC play since 2002 and a fifth straight victory overall Thursday when they host No. 17 Louisville.

"We're a lot more mature than we have been in the past. A lot of guys in the past would've been like 'Oh we beat the (No. 11) team so we don't have to come out as hard this week.' We just all executed exactly what we needed to do," N.C. State defensive end Bradley Chubb told reporters following last weekend's 33-25 win over Syracuse. The victory gave the Wolfpack their first 2-0 start in the conference since 2006, leaving them as only one of two schools (Clemson) without a blemish in the ACC's Atlantic Division. In case his team needs any additional motivation on a short week, Doeren must only remind the Wolfpack of last season's 54-13 rout in which Louisville raced out to a 44-0 halftime advantage. The Cardinals have outscored a pair of overmatched opponents (Kent State and FCS foe Murray State) 97-13 since their demoralizing 47-21 setback to No. 2 Clemson on Sept. 16 and have won six of the seven meetings versus N.C. State, including all three since joining the ACC.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Louisville opened as 3.5-point road favorites and that number dropped slightly to 3 on Thursday morning. The total hit the betting boards at 62 and jumped all of the way up to 65.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Louisville - OL C. Bentley (Questionable, Concussion), RB C. Wilson (Questionable, Knee), DL D. Bailey (Questionable, Ankle), WR J. Smith (Out Indefinitely, Wrist), RB J. Smith (Out For Season, Toe), CB J. Alexander (Out Indefinitely, Leg), WR D. Peete (Out For Season, Knee), RB D. Williams (Out For Season, Knee).

NC State - WR K. Harmon (Probable, Shoulder), S D. Wright (Probable, Groin), LB R. Nicholson (Questionable, Groin), DE D. Holden (Questionable, Upper Body), RB D. Nichols (Out For Season, Knee), DT D. Johnson (Out For Season, Lower Body), RB M. Braxton (Out For Season, Lower Body), CB J. Valdez (Out For Season, Knee), DB F. Phillips Jr. (Out For Season, Achilles), DB T. Meadows (Out Indefinitely, Personal), LB I. Moore (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), RB E. Collins (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), DE X. Lyas (Out Indefinitely, Suspension).

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, who is 13 yards away from becoming the seventh player in conference history to reach 10,000 total career yards, posted his program-best 16th 100-yard rushing game while also breaking Chris Redman's school mark (538) for career scoring (554) last time out. Dez Fitzpatrick finished with two touchdowns on four catches against Murray State and has scored six times on only 16 receptions, leaving him one TD catch shy of Arnold Jackson (1997) and Mario Urrutia (2005) for the most by a freshman receiver in school history. Preseason All-American cornerback Jaire Alexander, who suffered a knee injury in the season opener, practiced last week and is day-to-day, according to coach Bobby Petrino.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Junior quarterback Ryan Finley owns the longest active streak of consecutive attempts without an interception at 257, ranks 23rd in the nation in passing yards per game (280.6) and ninth in FBS in completion percentage (ACC-high 71.9). Nyheim Hines, a 5-9, 197-pound track All-American, has transitioned smoothly to running back after being used as a flex player in his first two seasons and ranks fifth in the conference in rushing (411 yards) after setting a career high in rushing yards in each of the last three weeks. Chubb leads the conference with league-best 12 tackles for loss after 3.5 last week, increasing his career total to 46 and moving him into second place in school history behind Mario Williams (55.5).

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 conference games.
* Under is 16-1-1 in Wolfpack last 18 Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Cardinals are getting 68 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 60 percent of the totals wagers.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 5

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LOU at NCST 08:00 PM

NCST +3.0 *****

U 65.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NC State upsets Louisville 39-25
October 5, 2017

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) Nyheim Hines ran for two touchdowns and Ryan Finley threw for another to help No. 24 North Carolina State beat No. 17 Louisville 39-25 on Thursday night.

Hines ran for 102 yards and had a 48-yard kickoff return in the fourth quarter that helped set up a touchdown drive for the Wolfpack (5-1, 3-0 Atlantic Coast Conference).

Finley threw for 367 yards and a 48-yard score to Kelvin Harmon, part of N.C. State's 520 total yards on a night it never trailed against the Cardinals (4-2, 1-2).

Then there was the Wolfpack's defensive front, which kept the pressure on reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson.

''They don't want to be denied what they feel is theirs right now,'' Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren said. ''There's no flinch in these guys, I can tell you that.''

Jackson ran for his second touchdown to pull the Cardinals to 32-25 with 4:10 left, then got the ball back with a chance to tie it. But linebacker Germaine Pratt picked up a deflected pass and returned it 25 yards - blasting through an attempted tackle by Jackson near the goal line - for a clinching score with 2:52 left.

''We've got a lot of work to do,'' Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino said. ''I'm not getting it done. I've got to do a better job with our coaches, do a better job with our players and get back on the right track.''

THE TAKEAWAY

Louisville: The Cardinals didn't do much to slow the Wolfpack to offset some of Jackson's usual brilliance, and that might have all but ended Louisville's title hopes in the league's Atlantic Division. They had already lost at home to reigning national champion Clemson and now find themselves two games back in the standings.

N.C. State: That's the first 3-0 start in the ACC play for the Wolfpack since 2002. And with wins over Florida State and Louisville, the preseason dark horse in the Atlantic Division has beaten two of the teams picked to finish higher in the standings to position itself as the division's likely top challenger to Clemson.

UP NEXT

Louisville: The Cardinals host Boston College on Oct. 14.

N.C. State: N.C. State visits Pittsburgh on Oct. 14 in cross-division league matchup.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet
October 4, 2017

**Memphis at Connecticut**

-- As of late Wednesday morning, Memphis (3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) was installed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 73.5 points. The Huskies were +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).

-- Mike Norvell’s squad won its first three games vs. ULM (37-29), vs. UCLA (48-45), vs. So. Illinois (44-31). Memphis caught the Bruins in a great spot for the Tigers, who faced Jim Mora Jr.’s team at noon Eastern in the hot, muggy weather of Tennessee in mid-September. Also, with its game at UCF in Week 2 cancelled, Memphis had two weeks to prepare for UCLA. In back-and-forth shootout, the Tigers prevailed as three-point home underdogs. Riley Ferguson completed 23-of-38 passes for 398 yards and six touchdowns with only one interception. Darrell Henderson rushed 14 times for 105 yards, while Anthony Miller hauled in nine receptions for 185 yards, including TD grabs from 12 and 33 yards out.

-- Memphis has failed to cover the number in a pair of games as a double-digit favorite this season. Since Norvell took over for Justin Fuente prior to the 2016 campaign, the Tigers have limped to a 2-5 spread record in seven games as double-digit favorites.

-- Memphis took its first defeat in Orlando last week when Central Florida coasted to a 40-13 win as a 5.5-point home favorite. The Tigers took their only lead midway through the first quarter at 7-6 on a Patrick Taylor Jr. two-yard TD run. The Knights responded with 34 unanswered points until Ferguson found Damonte Cox for a meaningless 14-yard TD strike on the game’s final play. UCF enjoyed a 603-396 advantage in total offense. Ferguson completed 27-of-49 throws for 321 yards and one TD, but he was intercepted three times. Pollard had three catches for 75 yards, while Miller was held to 37 receiving yards on merely three grabs.

-- Memphis has one of the nation’s premier kick returners in Tony Pollard, who was the AAC Special Teams Player of the Year as a freshman in 2016. Pollard has already matched his two kickoff returns for TDs like he had last season. He also has seven catches for 131 yards and one TD.

-- This is Memphis’s first road ‘chalk’ spot of the season. The Tigers went 2-2 ATS as road favorites in Norvell’s first year at the helm. Meanwhile, UConn is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog.

-- Ferguson hasn’t been as sharp as he was in 2016 when his completing percentage was higher (63.2%), and he threw for 3,698 yards with a 32/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In four games this year, which has included a pair of weak foes in ULM from the Sun Belt Conference and an FCS school in So. Illinois, Ferguson has connected on just 55.4 percent of his passes for 1,104 yards with a 9/5 TD-INT ratio. Miller, who had 95 receptions for 1,434 yards and 14 TDs in ’16, has 20 catches for 292 yards and three TDs. Joey Magnifico, a sophomore tight end, has 11 grabs for 152 yards and 10 TDs.

-- Henderson has run for a team-best 393 yards and three TDs while averaging an eye-popping 8.9 yards per carry. Patrick Taylor Jr. has added 276 rushing yards and three TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Taylor also has seven receptions for 87 yards and one TD.

-- Memphis wasn’t very stout defensively in ’16, giving up 28.8 PPG. Those defensive numbers are even worse through four games in ’17. The Tigers are ranked No. 126 of 130 FBS teams in total defensive, surrendering 513.5 yards per game. They are No. 127 versus the pass, No. 100 at defending the run and No. 114 in scoring defense (36.2 PPG).

-- Memphis has three key players listed as ‘questionable’ with undisclosed injuries, including starting LB Curtis Akins, starting WR Phil Mayhue and Taylor. Akins missed the loss at UFC but in the first three games, he produced 23 tackles (21 solo), 1.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and two passes broken up. Mayhue has 10 receptions for 123 yards and one TD, and he also completed his only pass attempt on a trick play for 18 yards. Norvell dismissed starting safety Shaun Rupert from the program before the UCF loss last week. Rupert had contributed 14 tackles (all solo), three PBU and one interception for a 36-yard return in the Tigers’ first three games.

-- UConn (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) will be without two starters on offense. Junior WR Hergy Mayala is out until at least late October with an ankle injury, while junior center Ryan Crozier is done for the season with a torn ACL. Crozier started all 12 games for the Huskies in 2016. Mayala had 11 receptions for 183 yards and three TDs in UConn’s first two games, but he’s miss a second straight contest vs. Memphis.

-- Randy Edsall is in the first season of his second tenure at UConn after a failed five-year stay at Maryland, where his teams limped to a 23-39 record from 2011-2015. Edsall put the Huskies program on the map while going 70-63 with five postseason appearances and a 3-2 bowl record from 1999-2010.

-- UConn opened the year with a 27-20 non-covering win over New Hampshire as a 22-point home ‘chalk.’ Since then, Edsall’s squad has dropped three in a row both SU and ATS at Virginia (38-18), vs. East Carolina (41-38) and at SMU (49-28). UConn pulled into a 28-28 tie at SMU on the first play of the fourth quarter last week when QB Bryant Shirrefffs found Keylon Dixon on a 59-yard scoring strike. However, the Mustangs would score 21 unanswered points in the last 11:46 to garner the spread cover as 17-point home favorites. The 77 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 74.5-point total on SMU’s last TD with 4:24 remaining.

-- Shirreffs is playing the best football of his career in his senior campaign. He was outstanding at SMU, completing 22-of-28 passes for 408 yards and two TDs without an interception. Aaron McLean had five catches for 122 yards and one TD, while Dixon had four receptions for 84 yards and one TD.

-- Shireffs came into the year with a 17/14 career TD-INT ratio. Shirreffs has connected on 68.9 percent of his passes for 1,165 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target has been RB Arkeel Newsome, who has 15 catches for 311 yards and one TD. Newsome also has a rushing TD to his credit.

-- UConn RB Nate Hopkins has rushed for a team-best 223 yards and five TDs with a 4.7 YPC average. Kevin Mensah has run for 167 yards and one TD while averaging 5.6 YPC.

-- Although UConn is ranked 12th in the nation in passing yards and 31st in total offense (467.0 YPG), it is ranked only 78th in scoring with a 27.8 PPG average. The defense has been another story altogether. The Huskies are last in the country at defending the pass, No. 127 of 130 FBS squads in total defense and No. 117 in scoring defense (37.0 PPG).

-- These schools have only met twice with the home team winning in blowout fashion both times. In 2013, UConn rolled to a 45-10 win as a one-point home underdog in its regular-season finale. Then in ’14, Memphis trounced the Huskies by a 41-10 count as a 21.5-point home ‘chalk.’

-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for both schools, but the ‘under’ is 1-0 in the Tigers’ lone previous road assignment. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 71.8 points per game. Meanwhile, UConn has seen the ‘over’ hit in its last three games, but it is just 1-1 in its home outings. The Huskies have seen their games average combined scores of 64.8 PPG.

-- ESPN will provide the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Boise State at Brigham Young**

-- As of late Wednesday morning, most spots had Boise State (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) listed as a nine-point favorite with a total of 44. The Cougars were +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).

-- Boise State has a pair of home wins vs. Troy (24-13) and vs. New Mexico (28-14). The Broncos lost at Washington State and at home to Virginia before going into their open date last weekend.

-- Bryan Harsin’s team allowed a 31-10 lead get with less than nine minutes left in the fourth quarter of a 47-44 triple-overtime loss at still-undefeated Washington State in Week 2. Nevertheless, the Broncos covered the number as 7.5-point underdogs. With a 31-17 advantage with less than six minutes remaining, back-up QB and Kansas grad transfer Montell Cozart threw a terrible interception that turned into a 36-yard pick-six. The Cougars would pull even and force overtime with a TD at the 1:44 mark of the final stanza. Other than the pick-six, Cozart played well in relief of the injured Brett Rypien, the junior signal caller who earned first-team All-Mountain West Conference honors in his first two collegiate campaigns. Cozart completed 12-of-20 throws for 161 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also rushed for a team-high 72 yards and one TD on 14 attempts. Cedrick Wilson had nine catches for 147 yards in the losing effort.

-- BSU was handed its worst home loss in 16 years in its last outing two weeks ago. Virginia had dropped 20 of its past 21 road assignments and came to the smurf turf as a 14-point underdog. By early in the fourth quarter on the blue carpet, UVA had a 42-14 lead and the Broncos were finished. They added a safety and a TD in the last 2:07 to make the 42-23 final score look more respectable. After missing the win over UNM and most of three quarters at Washington State, Rypien completed 24-of-42 throws for 285 yards vs. UVA. However, he didn’t have a TD pass and was intercepted once. Wilson had 13 receptions for 209 yards and one TD.

-- For the season, Rypien has completed 44-of-73 passes (60.3%) for 521 yards with a 0/2 TD-INT ratio. Cozart has connected on 37-of-59 throws (62.7%) for 416 yards with a 6/1 TD-INT ratio. Cozart has also rushed for a team-best 191 yards and two TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Wilson has 29 receptions for 485 yards and three TDs. Senior TE Jake Roh has 11 catches for 87 yards and three TDs.

-- Boise State owns an 11-6 spread record in 17 games as a road favorite during Harsin’s four-year tenure. Harsin’s record at BSU is 33-11, going 2-1 in bowl games.

-- BSU junior CB Michael Young was suspended indefinitely after his arrest for DUI two days after the loss vs. UVA. He had four tackles in a reserve role in two games played at WSU and vs. UNM.

-- I’ve been calling BYU (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS) the nation’s biggest disappointment for weeks and nothing changed that notion last Friday night in Logan, where Utah State captured a 40-24 win over the Cougars as a one-point home underdog. BYU led 21-7 early in the second quarter before Jalen Davis intercepted Beau Hoge and turned it into a 30-yard pick-six. Davis would turn three interceptions into 95 return yards and two TDs before the night was over. Koy Detmer Jr. would struggle in relief of Hoge, completing only 7-of-20 passes for 91 yards with three interceptions.

-- Not that BYU starting QB Tanner Mangum was playing well with a 2/4 TD-INT ratio in the team’s first three games, but he is nonetheless missed desperately yet remains ‘out’ indefinitely with an ankle injury. Now Hoge, who has a 2/3 TD-INT ratio, is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. BSU due to a head injury. If Hoge can’t go Friday night, Detmer will presumably get the starting nod.

-- Since opening the season with a 20-6 non-covering home win over Portland State, BYU has lost four in a row with three defeats coming by margins of 16 points or more. The Cougars lost 27-0 to LSU in New Orleans in Week 2. Next, they lost back-to-back home games vs. Utah (19-13) and vs. Wisconsin (40-6). Kalani Sitake’s team had two weeks to prepare for Utah State, yet came up way short.

-- BYU is 0-2-1 ATS in three games as a home underdog on Sitake’s watch.

-- BYU has seen the ‘over’ hit in back-to-back games after the ‘under’ cashed in its first three contests. The ‘under’ is 2-1 in its three home outings. The Cougars’ five games have averaged combined scores of 39.0 PPG.

-- BYU is ranked No. 129 of 130 FBS teams in total offense. The Cougars are No. 126 in scoring, mustering merely 12.6 PPG. They are No. 118 in both rushing and passing offense.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for BSU (2-2), but the ‘over’ cashed in its lone road assignment. The Broncos’ games have averaged combined scores of 58.8 PPG, but bettors must take into account that their loss at Washington State had 29 points scored in the three extra sessions.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Washington State is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog under Mike Leach. As of Wednesday, the Cougars were short ‘dogs Saturday at Oregon. The Ducks are dealing with injuries galore, although star RB Royce Freeman was upgraded to ‘probable’ (arm injury) after practicing on Tuesday. Nevertheless, starting QB Justin Herbert (9/2 TD-INT) is ‘out’ with a collarbone injury and his back-up Taylor Allie was ‘questionable’ as of early Wednesday. Seven other Ducks were listed as ‘questionable,’ including their top two WRs Dillon Mitchell (19 catches, 220 yards & two TDs) and Charles Nelson, in addition to starting TE Jacob Breeland and safety Khalil Oliver. Furthermore, starting LB Kaulane Apelu went down with a season-ending injury last week. Apelu had recorded 20 tackles, three TFL’s and one PBU in Oregon’s first five games.

-- Stanford sophomore LB Sean Barton is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Barton had 35 tackles, two sacks and 3.5 TFL’s as a freshman in ’16. The Cardinal was favored by 5.5 points at Utah late Wednesday morning. Utah is dealing with several crucial injuries. Senior DE Kyle Fitts is ‘doubtful’ with a leg injury, while starting QB Tyler Huntley is ‘doubtful’ due to an arm injury. Fitts has contributed 11 tackles, two sacks, one forced fumble and one QB hurry. Huntley has completed 88-of-120 attempts (73.3%) for 966 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. He also has rushed for 208 yards and three TDs. Fortunately for the Utes, they have an experienced back-up QB in Troy Williams, who led them to a 9-4 record in 13 starts last year. Williams had a 15/8 TD-INT ratio along with five rushing scores in ’16. Thus far this season, Williams has completed only 9-of-19 throws for 131 yards. He’s rushed for 17 yards and one TD on five carries.

-- Darren Carrington, Utah’s grad transfer WR from Oregon, has 30 receptions for 485 yards and four TDs. The Utes own an 8-4 spread record in 12 games as home ‘dogs during Kyle Whittingham’s 13-year tenure. Meanwhile, Stanford has compiled a 17-10 ATS ledger in 27 games as a road favorite on David Shaw’s watch.

-- Indiana has named Peyton Ramsey as its starting QB moving forward. Ramsey has been more effective than senior Richard Lagow, who started all 13 games for IU last year. Ramsey, a redshirt freshman, has completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 316 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for 127 yards and one TD. The 2-2 Hoosiers are off this week before hosting Michigan on Oct. 14.

-- UCLA tight end Caleb Wilson is out for the season after sustaining a foot injury in last week’s 27-23 home win over Colorado. This is a huge loss for the Bruins. Wilson had 38 receptions for 490 yards and one TD in their first five games.

-- Eastern Michigan owns a 7-1 spread record in its last eight games as a road underdog. The Eagles are 13.5-point ‘dogs Saturday at Toledo.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS

Aug/SeptTotals:.......154 - 145 - 9.....51.50%....-27.50

Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS

Aug/Sept Totals:...........41 -33 - 2...........+30.50...............13 - 18.............- 25.50

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CFB Ocotber's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/05/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% - 0.50

Total.................3-1...........75.00%.....+ 9.50


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS

10/05/2017......................1 - 0.............+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00

10/04/2017......................0 - 1..............-5.50...................1 - 0................+5.00

Totals...............................1 - 1..............-0.50...................2 - 0................+10.00

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 5 upon us……..

— Cardinals are 3-12 vs spread in their last 15 games.

— Oakland is 11-25 in its last 36 games as a home favorite.

— Kansas City covered eight of its last nine games.

— Packers are 4-11 in last 15 games as an underdog.

— Carolina is 16-6 in its last 22 games as a road underdog.

— Giants covered 7 of last 9 games against AFC opponents.


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Friday’s List of 13: Things I’m looking for this weekend…….

13) Green Bay won six of last seven games vs Dallas, beating Cowboys in playoffs two of last three years; they won 37-36/34-31 in last two visits to Big D. 4:25 game on FOX will be a big one, mainly because Dallas is 2-2 after going 13-3 last season.

12) Miami-Florida State was rescheduled to here after the hurricanes last month; now there is the threat of more rain. Miami scored 83 points in winning its first two I-A games, but they’ve lost their last seven games with Florida State.

11) Bengals got their first win last week; they led by 2 TD’s at halftime in Green Bay the week before, but lost in overtime. Cincy needs to beat the 3-1 Bills here; they’re 6-2-1 in their last nine pre-bye games. Bills have allowed only 13.5 ppg in their 3-1 start.

10) LSU had some players-only meetings this week after their loss to Troy State; players-only meetings are not a good sign. Neither is the AD meeting with the coaches during the week. Florida lost one of its QB’s for the year LW; Gators won their first three SEC games despite nine their players still under suspensions. This should be a very interesting game.

9) Something has to give in Swamp Stadium, with 0-4 Chargers visiting 0-4 Giants. 14 years ago, the Chargers drafted Eli Manning, but Manning’s family didn’t want Eli playing for San Diego, so the Chargers traded him to New Jersey. Otherwise, Ben Roethlisberger would’ve likely become a Giant instead of a Steeler.

8) Utah is 4-0, but three of their next four games are against Stanford, USC, Oregon, so we’ll know everything we need to know about the Utes after that stretch.

7) Jets will be a surprising 3-2 if they can beat the winless Browns in Cleveland this week. Jets ran ball for 256 yards last week. Browns are -6 in turnovers already; they allowed 9.0/8.0 ypa in their last two games.

6) Michigan State is 7-2 in its last nine games with Michigan (9-0 vs spread); Wolverines’ defense has allowed 13.5 ppg, and they’ve played a decent schedule so far. This is first road game for the Spartans, who are 3-1— both teams are really young.

5) Seahawks-Rams is suddenly a big game with playoff implications in the NFC West. If the good guy— I mean, if the Rams win, they’ll be two games ahead of Seattle.

4) It’ll likely be a somber crowd in Las Vegas for the San Diego State-UNLV game, the first big outdoor event in Vegas since the shootings Sunday night. Aztecs are 5-0 and on a serious roll. UNLV is 2-2; this will be a great test for them.

3) Arizona won five of last six games with Philly, winning 40-17 in last visit here two years ago, but Cardinals are only 2-2 this year, with FG wins over Colts/49ers- shaky. Eagles won their last two games by a total of five points- this should be a good game.

2) Washington State won its last two games with Oregon, 52-33/45-38; they’ve covered their last seven games against the Ducks. This is Wazzu’s first true road game, coming off their emotional win over USC last week.

1) Chiefs are the only unbeaten team left in the NFL; short week for them here. KC won/covered their first four games, scoring 14 TD’s on 42 drives- they haven’t turned ball over in their last 3 games. Houston found itself a QB with rookie Watson- they scored 90 points in last two games.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 Report - Week 6
October 5, 2017


2017 BIG 12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Baylor 0-5 0-2 2-3 2-3
Iowa State 2-2 0-1 3-1 2-2
Kansas 1-3 0-1 1-3 4-0
Kansas State 3-1 1-0 2-2 2-2
Oklahoma 4-0 1-0 3-1 3-1
Oklahoma State 4-1 1-1 3-2 3-2
Texas 2-2 1-0 3-1 1-3
Texas Christian 4-0 1-0 2-2 2-2
Texas Tech 3-1 0-1 4-0 1-3
West Virginia 3-1 1-0 2-2 3-0-1

Iowa State at Oklahoma (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Cyclones head down to Norman looking to avoid their second straight league setback, but it's going to be awfully tough. They're a four-touchdown underdog to the high-flying Sooners. Iowa State enters the game 5-1 ATS over the past six against teams with a winning record, and they're 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games overall. However, they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five against Oklahoma, and 1-5 ATS in their past six sojourns to Norman. The 'over' is also an impressive 4-1 in the past five in this series. For Oklahoma, the 'over' is 21-9-1 in their past 31 Big 12 contests, while the over has hit in 10 of the past 14 for Iowa State, 10 of the past 14 league games and five of their past six against winning teams.

Texas Tech at Kansas (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m.)
The Red Raiders roll into Lawrence looking to bounce back after a 41-34 loss against Oklahoma State last weekend. It was cover for the Red Raiders, who are a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season. Unlike years past, the 'under' is 3-1 for the Red Raiders, as their defense has been slightly better than past years, although allowing 32.5 PPG isn't exactly shutdown - ha. The cover record for Texas Tech is a stark contrast to Kansas, as they're 1-3 ATS so far this season, and potentially 0-4 ATS at some shops. They covered a 23 1/2-point number last week, but some places had it at 21 1/2, some had it as a push, etc. What wasn't close is another 'over' cashing for the Jayhawks, as the over is now a perfect 4-0 on the season for KU. The Red Raiders have dominated this series lately, going 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings and 5-2 ATS in their past seven trips to Lawrence.

West Virginia at Texas Christian (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Mountaineers are back in action for the first time since Sept. 23, a well-rested bunch for sure. Byes haven't been kind to the Mountaineers, at least against the number, as Dana Holgorsen's bunch is just 2-10 ATS over their past 12 following a bye week. TCU is also well rested, getting to enjoy the past two weeks since their impressive win over Oklahoma State vaulted them back into the national picture. Unlike West Virginia, they're solid coming out of a bye, going 19-7 ATS in the past 26 following a week of rest. However, TCU has struggled against the number at home, going just 1-10 ATS in their past 11 in Fort Worth. Total bettors might be a big fan of the 'under' this week. While the over is 3-0-1 in West Virginia's past four, the under is 5-1 in their past six after a bye, 16-5 in their past 21 against winning teams and 20-7 in their past 27 league games. The under is 6-2 in TCU's past eight Big 12 battles, although the over is 15-6 in their past 21 following a bye.

Kansas State at Texas (FOX Sports 1, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats looked impressive at times last week against Baylor, especially on offense, but they also allowed the Bears to hang around and make a game of it with some mental lapses. They can ill afford that against Texas in a road game. After a stunning loss to open the season against Maryland, Texas has been much better of late. They took USC to overtime before falling in the Coliseum on Sept. 16, and they won their league opener at Iowa State by 10 last Thursday, improving to 3-0 ATS over their past three games. A big reason for their turnaround has been defense, as they're allowing just 11.3 PPG over the past three - all under results. The under is a perfect 4-0 in the past four in this series, and 5-1 in the past six battles in Austin. The Wildcats have covered eight of the past 10 in the series, but the home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS over the past five battles.

Bye Weeks
Baylor, Oklahoma State

[StarDust Bum]

SEC Report - Week 6
October 5, 2017

Florida (3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) has suddenly won three in a row and it took the cash in last week’s 38-24 win over Vanderbilt as a nine-point home favorite. The 62 combined points soared ‘over’ the 40-point total. Junior quarterback Luke Del Rio was lost for the season to a broken collarbone that required surgery on Monday, but redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks completed 10-of-14 throws for 185 yards in relief.

UF true freshman RB Malik Davis rushed for 124 yards and two TDs, including a 39-yard scamper on a fourth-and-one play with 1:42 remaining to give the Gators the frontdoor cover. Vandy had been in front of the number for the first three quarters until UF sophomore RB Lamical Perine had a one-yard TD plunge with 14:18 remaining in the final stanza. The Commodores appeared on the verge of a backdoor cover when Kyle Shurmur hit Nathan Marcus for a seven-yard scoring strike to pull within 31-24 with 3:14 left.

But Davis’s TD gave gamblers on the Gators a fortunate winner, especially when you saw Jim McElwain’s reaction to the score. The third-year UF coach had clearly communicated that he wanted his back to go down if he earned the first down in order to run the clock out from there.

While Florida finally enjoyed a taste of some offensive production, LSU (3-2 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) was doing nothing of the sort. The Tigers, who were 20.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Troy, couldn’t generate anything early on and trailed the Trojans 10-0 at intermission. Some may remember in 2008 when Troy went into Tiger Stadium and held a 31-3 lead early in the third quarter, only to see it evaporate in a 40-31 loss.

That would not be the case this time around. Jordan Chunn’s one-yard TD dash early in the third put Troy up 17-0. Trailing 24-7 in the fourth quarter, LSU’s Josh Anderson scored on a seven-yard TD scamper. Danny Etling found Foster Moreau for a 20-yard scoring strike to cut the deficit to 24-21, but there was only 1:59 remaining. The Trojans held to collect the upset victory in Baton Rouge, prompting an avalanche of criticism at Ed Orgeron.

What had to be most disconcerting for Orgeron and the restless LSU fan base was the inability to stop Troy’s ground attack. Chunn, who was first-team All Sun-Belt selection in 2016, rushed 30 times for 191 yards and one TD. LSU committed four turnovers and went 0-for-9 on third-down conversion attempts.

In fairness, LSU was without star RB Derrius Guice, who has been limited in the last three games but was upgraded to ‘probable’ at UF after practicing at full speed on Wednesday. The line was up to six in favor of Florida on Sunday night, but that changed early Monday after McElwain informed the media that star WR Tyrie Cleveland was ‘doubtful’ with a high-ankle sprain.

This news quickly moved the spread down to 3.5 and when Cleveland was officially ruled ‘out’ Wednesday night, the line moved south of the key number of three down to 2.5, where it was as of late Thursday. The total was 45 or 45.5, while the Tigers were +120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120).

The loss of Cleveland is a big blow for the Gators, who are 5-5-1 ATS as home favorites on McElwain’s watch. Cleveland has 15 receptions for 326 yards and two TDs.

LSU is in revenge mode after dropping a 16-10 decision to UF as a 14-point favorite in Baton Rouge last season. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak over the Gators, who celebrated clinching the SEC East on the field of Tiger Stadium following an epic goal-line stand to end the game.

CBS will provide the telecast from The Swamp at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. There was an 80 percent chance of rain as of Thursday, so the weather will likely be a factor.

Besides top-ranked Alabama, Georgia (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) is the only other unbeaten SEC school. The Bulldogs own wins vs. Appalachian State (31-10), at Notre Dame (20-19), vs. Samford (42-14), vs. Mississippi State (31-3) and at Tennessee (41-0). They’ve accomplished that in Kirby Smart’s second season despite the fact that starting QB Jacob Eason went down with a sprained knee in the first quarter of the opener.

Eason’s injury forced true freshman Jake Fromm to grow up quickly, but that’s exactly what he’s done. The numbers aren’t eye-popping and he has certainly made some mistakes, but Fromm has mostly played with the poise of a veteran like few true freshman are capable of doing. He has completed 50-of-84 passes (59.5%) for 734 yards with an 8/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for a pair of scores.

UGA will put its undefeated record on the line Saturday against Vanderbilt at noon Eastern in Nashville. As of Thursday, most books had the Bulldogs installed as 17.5-point road favorites with a total of 40.5. The Commodores, who own a 9-4 spread record as home underdogs during Derek Mason’s four-year tenure, are available to win outright for a +650 payout (risk $100 to win $650). Vandy’s Kyle Shurmur threw for 264 yards and three TDs without an interception at The Swamp last week. For the season, the junior signal caller has now thrown for 985 yards with an 11/1 TD-INT ratio.

UGA will be in revenge mode after dropping a 17-16 decision to Vandy in Athens last year. When the Bulldogs were seeking revenge last week after Tennessee hit a Hail Mary to top them between the hedges in 2016, they got it and then some in the form of a 41-0 clubbing at Neyland Stadium. The Volunteers hadn’t been dealt cream-cheese treatment since 1994. On that day in Knoxville, I was in the stands for the 34-0 shellacking delivered by my Gators.

Who started at QB for UT that day during Peyton Manning’s true freshman season? None other than former Colorado Rockies slugger Todd Helton, who gave way to Manning in the fourth quarter. With the Vols in the red zone in the final minute, Steve Spurrier “went all Spurrier” on UT and ordered the starters back in to preserve the shutout. On a fourth-and-goal play, Kevin Carter sacked Manning to put the icing (or cream cheese) on the bagel.

Eason is ready to play again, but Fromm will get the starting nod at Vandy. The ‘Dores are ranked No. 109 out of 130 FBS teams at defending the run. That’s not good against UGA’s trio of Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and true freshman D’Andre Swift. Chubb has rushed for 480 yards and six TDs with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average. Michel has 256 rushing yards, three TDs and a 5.4 YPC average, while Swift has rushed for 232 yards and one TD with a 7.3 YPC average.

At 4:00 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network, South Carolina (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) will take on Arkansas. As of Thursday, the Razorbacks were favored by two points at most spots. The total was 47 after it opened at 50. Some shops had the Gamecocks at +110 on the money line.

Will Muschamp’s team started 2-0 with wins over N.C. State (35-28 in Charlotte) and at Missouri (31-3 after trailing 10-0 early). Then it scored on the first play of scrimmage in its home opener vs. Kentucky in Week 3. After true sophomore QB Jake Bentley hit Deebo Samuel for the long TD pass, USC forced a quick turnover by the Wildcats. But the Gamecocks missed a field goal on that second possession, and it was tough sledding offensively the rest of the way.

UK ended up pulling out a 23-13 upset victory as a six-point road underdog. Even worse, Samuel broke his leg and is most likely out for the season. The junior WR and special-teams ace had already scored six TDs in 2.5 games played. Then in Week 4, USC had to rally from a 16-0 fourth-quarter deficit to win a 17-16 decision over La. Tech thanks to a walk-off field goal.

La. Tech easily covered the number, however, as a nine-point road underdog. Although Parker White hit the 31-yard game winner to nip the Bulldogs, he’s an atrocious 2-of-7 on field goals this year and has also missed an extra point.

Bentley has thrown for 1,257 yards with a 9/4 TD-INT ratio. He now has an 18/8 TD-INT ratio in 12 career starts with a 7-5 record. With Samuel sidelined, Bentley has two main targets in sophomore WR Bryan Edwards and junior TE Hayden Hurst. Edwards has 25 receptions for 337 yards, while Hurst has 17 catches for 221 yards and one TD. Hurst also had a two-yard TD run at Missouri.

If the line holds, it will be just the third time Arkansas (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) has been a road favorite during Bret Bielema’s five-year run at the helm The Razorbacks are 0-2 ATS in those two previous instances.

After dropping a sixth straight game to Texas A&M two weeks ago, which was the third that went to overtime in the last four years, Arkansas bounced back with a 42-24 win over New Mexico State last week. For those who backed the Hogs during the week when the number was stuck on 17, they cashed a winner. However, the line moved to 18.5 and 19 at most shops on Saturday morning, so Arkansas actually failed to cover the closing line.

This was Arkansas’ first game without its best and only experienced WR in Jared Cornelius, who sustained a season-ending Achilles tear vs. Texas A&M. Austin Allen completed 19-of-26 passes for 264 yards and three TDs with one interception vs. NMS. Devwah Whaley rushed 19 times for 119 yards and one TD. For the season, Allen has connected on 58.1 percent of his throws for 766 yards with a 7/3 TD-INT ratio.

Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) for the Hogs, who have seen their contests average combined scores of 62.5 PPG. The ‘under’ is 4-1 for the Gamecocks, 2-0 in their home outings.

Ole Miss (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) fell to 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a double-digit underdog in last week’s 66-3 loss at Alabama as a 30.5-point ‘dog. I felt like it was borderline criminal that Hugh Freeze didn’t have to be on the sidelines to take that assbeating like a man.

After throwing nine TD passes with only one interception in home wins over South Alabama and UT-Martin, sophomore QB Shea Patterson has a 2/5 TD-INT ratio in losses at California and at Alabama. The Rebels will look to avoid a three-game losing streak Saturday on The Plains at Auburn. The Tigers were 21.5-point favorites as of Thursday, while the total was at 56.5.

Auburn (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) has won three consecutive games since dropping a 14-6 decision at Clemson. The Tigers have been playing great defense all season. They are currently ranked fifth in the nation in pass defense, ninth in total defense and sixth in scoring defense (11.0 PPG).

In the last two weeks, the offense has come alive in wins at Missouri (51-14) and vs. Mississippi State (49-10). Kerryon Johson was the catalyst at Mizzou, rushing for five TDs. The junior RB then ran for 116 yards and three TDs vs. Mississippi State Jarrett Stidham completed 13-of-16 passes against MSU for 264 yards and two TDs without an interception. Stidham, the junior who sat out last year at a JC after transferring from Baylor, has completed 72.0 percent of his passes for 1,110 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio.

The ‘over’ is 3-1 for the Rebels, who have seen their games average combined scores of 63.5 points per game. On the flip side, Auburn has watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 overall, 2-1 in its home contests. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 45.2 PPG.

These SEC West rivals will collide at noon Eastern on The SEC Network.

Alabama (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) hits the road this week to take on Texas A&M in College Station. As of Thursday, most books had the Crimson Tide listed as a 26.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 55.5. 5Dimes.eu had the Aggies available to win outright for a monster 20/1 payout (risk $100 to win $2,000).

Nick Saban’s squad smashed Vandy by a 59-0 count two weeks ago in its only prior road assignment. Saban has to be pleased with the play of sophomore QB Jalen Hurts, who has completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 747 yards and six TDs without an interception. He has also run for a team-best 461 yards and four TDs, averaging 8.4 YPC.

Damien Harris has run for 376 yards and six TDs with an 8.4 YPC average, while Bo Scarbrough has 239 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.8 YPC average. Calvin Ridley has 24 receptions for 322 yards and two TDs.

Texas A&M (4-1 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) has won four in a row since blowing a 44-10 lead at UCLA late in the third quarter of a 45-44 setback. The Aggies are 2-0 in SEC play after getting past Arkansas in overtime before rallying past South Carolina last week, 24-17.

Kevin Sumlin has handed over the starting QB job to true freshman Kellen Mond, who has played well since halftime of a Week 3 win over Louisiana (45-21). For the year, Mond has 808 passing yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. He’s a serious threat with his legs, rushing for 252 yards and one TD. Sophomore RB Trayveon Williams has run for 384 yards and five TDs with a 5.8 YPC average, while Keith Ford (5.3 YPC) has 302 rushing yards and seven TDs.

Texas A&M has been a home underdog five times during Sumlin’s tenure, posting a 1-4 spread record. The lone cover came in a 49-42 loss to Alabama as an 8.5-point puppy in 2013. Meanwhile, Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite.

After a much-needed open date, Missouri (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) will try to snap a three-game losing slide at Kentucky. As of Thursday, the Wildcats were 9.5-point home favorites.

UK bounced back from its gut-wrenching loss to Florida by slipping past Eastern Michigan, 24-20. The ‘Cats, who are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS, are 2-7 ATS in their last nine contests as double-digit favorites.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Tennessee and Mississippi State have open dates this weekend.

-- The current spread for the Iron Bowl at The Westgate SuperBook: Alabama -10 at Auburn.

-- Likewise, the current Egg Bowl line looks like this: Mississippi State -9.5 vs. Ole Miss.

-- Other interesting SEC showdowns with the numbers via The Westgate:
UGA -9.5 vs. UF (Jacksonville)
Alabama -24.5 vs. LSU
Auburn -13.5 at Texas A&M
Auburn -4 vs. UGA
LSU -7 at Tennessee
FSU -3 at UF
UGA -5.5 at Georgia Tech
LSU -8.5 vs. Texas A&M.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 6
October 5, 2017

2017 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 2-2 0-1 2-2 2-2
Arizona State 2-3 1-1 2-3 1-4
California 3-2 0-2 3-2 2-3
Colorado 3-2 0-2 2-3 1-4
Oregon 4-1 1-1 3-2 3-2
Oregon State 1-4 0-2 0-5 4-1
Southern California 4-1 2-1 1-4 2-3
Stanford 3-2 2-1 2-3 3-2
UCLA 3-2 1-1 1-4 4-1
Utah 4-0 1-0 4-0 1-3
Washington 5-0 2-0 3-2 2-3
Washington State 5-0 2-0 3-2 2-3

Oregon State at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)
It's been a tough season for the Beaves, who haven't tasted victory against an FBS team this season while failing to cover in any of their five outings. While the cover situation is up in the air, the losing ways do not appears to be ending soon with a trip to USC on tap. The Beavers will face an angry Trojans team that was upset in Pullman against an upstart Washington State side last weekend. The Beavs have had some success inside the conference, however, going 7-3 ATS over their past 10, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to USC. The home team is also 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series. USC has also hit against the number in six of their past six league games while going 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a losing overall mark. The under has cashed in five of the past six meetings between the schools.

Washington State at Oregon (FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET)
What can the Cougars do for an encore? They made national headlines with their victory at home last weekend against USC, but face another tough test on the road against Oregon. Washington State rolls in with three straight covers, and they're averaging 43.5 PPG over their past four outings. The defense has been a big improvement, too, allowing just 27 points to a powerful USC offense, and 19.0 PPG over the past three outings. As a result, the 'under' has hit in each of their past two. For Oregon, a feel-good start was tarnished in Tempe with a loss at Arizona State, 37-35, back on Sept. 23. The Ducks are still 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS while alternating covers and non-covers in all five outings. If you believe in patterns, they're due for a non-cover this weekend. Oregon's offense hasn't been a problem, as they've posted 35 or more points in all five games, and 42 or more in each of their four victories.

Arizona at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats take on the Buffaloes in Boulder in a key game in the South Divison. If either side has any hope of a participating in the conference title game, neither can afford a loss. In fact, an 0-2 in the league, Colorado's chances are already rather bleak. The Buffs figure to play with some desperation, and that's bad news for a Wildcats side which is just 4-14 ATS in the past 18 overall, 1-7 ATS in the past eight road games and 1-8 ATS in the past nine conference tilts. Colorado has rattled off six consecutive covers in the month of October and they're 9-4 ATS in the past 13 confernce games. However, they're just 2-6 ATS across the past eight overall, and 1-5 ATS in the past six Pac-12 battles. The road team has hit in each of the past five in this series, with the over cashing in five of the past six.

Stanford at Utah (FOX Sports 1, 10:15 p.m. ET)
Stanford has the run game cooking, as Bryce Love isn't making people forget about Christian McCaffrey, but he is making the transition very, very easy. He is already up to 1,000 rushing yards through just five games, as he has run roughshod over opponents all season. It's not terribly hard to understand or comprehend how this team lost at USC back on Sept. 9, as they're both good teams. And San Diego State is decent, but how did this Cardinal team lose two in a row with Love thrashing opponents? Over the past two outings this offense is averaging 46.0 PPG, and the defense is allowing a respectable 23.2 PPG. The Cardinal are just 1-3 ATS over the past four, while the 'under' has split in two true road games. For Utah, Kyle Whittingham continues to just reload. They lost standout RB Joe Williams (love that name!) to the NFL, no problem. The Utes are 4-0 SU/ATS and haven't missed a beat. Over the past two outings they're averaging 47.0 PPG, and the defense has been adequate in allowing just 17.3 PPG in four outings. The 'under' is 3-1 so far for the Utes.

California at Washington (ESPN, 10:45 p.m. ET)
The Bears opened the season with a 3-0 mark, but they've dropped their first two conference games to take a little luster off of their impressive start. Losses at home to USC and at Oregon are certainly not an embarrassment, but an 0-3 start in the conference would be a problem. That's exactly what Vegas is thinking will happen, as the Huskies are a four-touchdown favorite. Is that too high? Well, Washington did put it on Cal by a 66-27 count last season. The Huskies are playing great ball again this season, but has anyone noticed? Chris Petersen talked this week about how Washington is always scheduled for later games and the national media and fans never get to see his team. Well, they're 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS over the past four, posting 47.5 PPG over the past four outings, including 42.3 PPG over their past three against FBS teams. Last season's meeting was a rare 'over' result, as the 'under' had hit in the previous seven in the series.

Bye Weeks
Arizona State, UCLA

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 6
October 3, 2017

2017 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 2-2 0-1 1-3 1-3
Indiana 2-2 0-2 2-2 2-2
Iowa 3-2 0-2 2-3 1-4
Maryland 3-1 1-0 3-1 3-1
Michigan 4-0 1-0 2-2 1-2-1
Michigan State 3-1 1-0 3-1 1-3
Minnesota 3-1 0-1 2-2 2-2
Nebraska 3-2 2-0 2-3 2-3
Northwestern 2-2 0-1 2-2 2-1-1
Ohio State 4-1 2-0 2-3 3-2
Penn State 5-0 2-0 3-1-1 1-4
Purdue 2-2 0-1 3-1 1-3
Rutgers 1-4 0-2 3-2 2-3
Wisconsin 4-0 1-0 2-2 3-1

Penn State (-15) at Northwestern – (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Northwestern played a great first half last week at Wisconsin and took a 10-7 lead to the break. The Badgers scored the next 24 points to pull away but the Cats didn’t quit. They scored two TD’s in a 2:00 minute span late in the 4th quarter to make a game of it before coming up short 33-24. The Cats really struggled to run the ball gaining only 25 yards on 34 carries. Part of that was due to the fact that star RB Justin Jackson was injured. He played in the game (only 9 carries) but didn’t practice much during the week. This isn’t a new problem as they have been held to less than 26 yards rushing in 2 of their 4 games this season. They rank 13th in the Big Ten running the ball (126 YPG) and that includes their huge 303 yard rushing performance against a terrible Bowling Green defense that ranks 117th nationally in rush defense.

NW will have to find a way to score points here. Against the two solid defenses they’ve faced, the offense has struggled to put the ball in the endzone. Against Duke they scored 17 points and last week it was 24 points, however 14 of those came very late in the 4th quarter when the game looked out of reach. Against a PSU team that is 2nd in the Big Ten in scoring at 41 PPG, points are a must

A win here would put Penn State at 6-0 for the first time since 2008. The Nittany Lions didn’t wait long last week to jump on Indiana outscoring them 28-0 in the first quarter including returning the opening kickoff for a TD and a fumble return for a TD. IU hung tough in the 2nd quarter and actually went into half down just 28-14 after trailing 28-0 after one quarter. The Nits defense held the Hoosiers scoreless in the 2nd half and won going away 45-14 getting the easy cover.

In the surprising stat of the day, PSU had only 39 yards rushing on 37 attempts and that’s with the nation’s top RB Barkley lining up in the backfield. Barkley averaged only 2.8 YPC in the game which was the 3rd lowest YPC total of his career. Interestingly enough, this Hoosier defense held Barkley to 1.8 YPC in last year’s meeting which was the 2nd lowest total of his career. For the game, IU outrushed Penn State 177 to 39. If you would have shown us those numbers before the game started, you can bet we would have had a very large play on Indiana. Keep an eye on TE Gesicki this week as he was injured in last week’s game and is one of QB McSorely’s favorite targets.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – PSU continued on their pointspread roll covering again. They are now 12-1-1 ATS their last 14 games. The Lions are 13-5 SU in this series but Northwestern has won the last 2 meetings in 2014 & 2015. The Cats have been an underdog in 17 of the 18 games in this series with the exception being their game in 2001. The last time NW pulled an outright upset as a home dog of 14 or more was way back in 1991 when they topped Illinois 17-11 as a 21-point dog.

Illinois at Iowa (-18) – (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Illini offense continues to look flat out bad. They scored just 6 points last Friday night vs Nebraska (28-6 loss) and they rank dead last in the Big Ten in scoring offense (17 PPG) and total offense (267 YPG). Not only are they last in total offense, they are last in rushing AND last in passing in the Big Ten. Nothing is working on that side of the ball for Illinois. QB Chayce Crouch has thrown only 1 TD pass the entire season and has been held to 145 passing or less in all four games, including throwing for less than 100 yards twice. Because of those struggles, head coach Lovie Smith has decided to make a switch at the all important QB position.

Jeff George Jr will get the starting on Iowa. George has played in just one game this season and looked OK throwing for 211 yards and a TD in the 2nd half vs USF. On the other side of the ball it isn’t much better. In fact, Illinois ranks dead last in the Big Ten in total defense as well. They’ve done a decent job, despite giving up a ton of yards, at keeping teams out of the endzone. Three of their four opponents have been “held” to 28 points or less which isn’t terrible when you’re allowing nearly 430 YPG.

Iowa has had back to back grueling losses. Two weeks ago they played host to PSU and the Nittany Lions drove the length of the field and scored a TD as time expired to beat the Hawks 21-19. Last week they traveled to Michigan State and were upended 17-10. Down 17-7 at half, the Hawkeyes had a few shots on the second half but coughed up a fumble at the MSU 5-yard line and the MSU 38-yard line and settled for a FG on another drive. It was an ugly offensive game with the two teams combining for just 526 total yards on 4.2 yards per play. Iowa’s defense has been very solid, however their offense continues to be as inconsistent as they come.

They are now 0-2 in the Big Ten with the offense scoring 19 & 10 points and they haven’t topped 275 yards in either of those two games. They have a grand total of 22 first downs in their two Big Ten games. Iowa’s rushing attack, which was supposed to be a strength with an experienced offensive line along with RB Wadley who had 1,100 yards rushing last year. It hasn’t been as Wadley had 17 carries for just 30 yards last week vs MSU. A week earlier he had 18 carries for 80 yards vs PSU however 35 of those yards came on one carry with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. With an inexperienced QB who isn’t a great passer, Iowa better figure out their running game quickly.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Last year Iowa traveled to Champaign as an 8-point favorite and crushed Illinois 28-0 holding them to less than 200 yards of total offense. This has been a low scoring series with each of the last 10 meetings ending with a final point total of 51 or less. This total is set at 43.5 as of Tuesday. Illinois has covered only 8 of their last 25 road games dating back to the 2011 season. The last time the Illini won in Iowa City was back in 1999. Since 1990, Iowa has been a favorite of 14 or more four times in this series and they are 3-1 ATS in those games.

Minnesota at Purdue (-3) – (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Minnesota, under the direction of new head coach PJ Fleck, came into last week’s game at home vs Maryland with a perfect 3-0 record. Now granted, those three wins vs Buffalo, Oregon St, and MTSU, were against teams that currently have a combined 4-9 record vs other FBS teams. Last week in their Big Ten opener the Gophs were stomped by Maryland and lost 31-24 as a double digit favorite. The game wasn’t as close as the final score and Minnesota, who came into the game with the best rush defense in the nation, couldn’t stop the Terps on the ground.

Maryland RB Ty Johnson averaged 7.7 YPC in the game and the Terps hit Minny for 262 yards rushing. Not bad against a team that had been allowing only 59 YPG rushing. The Minnesota offense is hard to get a great read on. They haven’t been great by any means. Their rushing attack has been up and down and their QB Rhoda is just OK. They rank 11th in the Big Ten in total offense (367 YPG) yet they haven’t faced a defense currently ranked higher than 47th nationally in total defense.

The Boilers had an extra week to stew over their home loss to Michigan two weeks ago. It was a game in which they hung around for a while and actually led 10-7 at half. The Wolverines wore the Boilers down in the 2nd half en route to a 28-10 win. Despite their week off, Purdue is fairly banged up heading into this game. Their starting QB David Blough has a bad shoulder and hasn’t yet been cleared for this game.

Leading rusher Tario Fuller is a longshot to play this weekend with an ankle injury. RB Markell Jones, who was going to be the starter this year, has been out all season but does have a shot to play in this one. They will also be without starting linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley and starting safety Jacob Thieneman for the first half against the Gophers. They were each ejected for targeting in the 2nd half of the Michigan game. The Boilermakers are obviously improved under new head coach Jeff Brohm coming in with a 2-2 record. Their losses came at the hands of Louisville and Michigan, two of the better teams in the country.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Minnesota is and impressive 15-5-3 ATS in their last 23 road games and 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 Big Ten roadies. The favorite in this Big Ten series is 11-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings. This has been a high scoring series with just 4 of the last 21 meetings falling below 50 combined points. Only 7 of those 21 games have fallen under 60 points. Saturday’s opening total was set at 49.

Maryland at Ohio State (-31) – (FOX, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The Terps aren’t getting much respect here coming off a big upset win over the previously undefeated Minnesota Gophers. After beating Minny 31-24 on the road, Maryland is now tabbed as a whopping 31-point dog at Ohio State this Saturday. The Terps come in with a 3-1 record including an impressive 10-point win at Texas to open the season. That win looks even better as we progress through the season as the Longhorns are looking like a very solid team.

Maryland’s lone loss was to a very good UCF team and the Terps just happened to lose their then starting QB Hill in the first quarter of that game. Hill was in because the QB who was under center to begin the season, Tyrell Pigrome, was injured late in the Texas game and lost for the season. Now with Hill also out for the season it’s up to 3rd stringer Max Bortenschlager. If last week is any indication, the Terrapins look like they are in decent hands. Bortenschlager had 2 passing TD’s, 1 rushing TD, and didn’t turn the ball over in their win vs Minnesota. He also has a very solid running game to support him as they are 3rd in the Big Ten averaging 233 YPG on the ground. Last week they put up 262 yards on the ground vs a Minnesota defense that came into the game ranked #1 in the NATION in rush defense.

On the flip side, the Maryland defense held Minnesota to just 80 yards on the ground. It was Maryland’s 2nd outright win this year as a double digit underdog (at Texas was the other). They were just 1-26 SU their previous 27 games as a double digit dog entering the season.

Just like clockwork, the Buckeyes continue to destroy Rutgers on the football field each and every season. Entering last week’s game vs the Scarlet Knights, the Buckeyes had won all 3 games (since Rutgers joined the Big Ten) in blowout fashion outscoring them by a combined 163-24! OSU walloped Rutgers again 56-0 last week so you can now make that combined score 219-24 over the last 4 seasons! Not much to see here. The Bucks obviously dominated rolling up 628 yards to just 209 for Rutgers. If you subtract OSU’s final possession of the game where they simply took a knee, the Buckeyes scored on 8 of their 13 possessions and were shut out on downs deep in Rutgers territory on another. The Knights, on the other hand, punted on 9 of their 13 possessions and threw interceptions on 2 others. With that win the Buckeyes have now won 42 of their last 45 Big Ten games.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two have met 3 times since Maryland joined the league and OSU has won all three by an average score of 44-18. Last year’s meeting was a whitewashing as OSU won 62-3 at Maryland. OSU is just 5-14 ATS their last 19 home games. Buckeyes are only 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they’ve been tabbed a favorite of 30 or more.

Michigan State at Michigan – (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Sparty bounced back nicely last week and topped Iowa in their Big Ten opener after getting whipped on the scoreboard by Notre Dame a week earlier. MSU topped the Hawkeyes 17-10 scoring all 17 of their points in the first half. That included two TD’s in the first quarter and 121 of the Spartans 300 total yardage came in that first quarter. MSU had only 4 second half possessions and those included a missed FG, getting shut out on downs at the Iowa 30 yard line, and a punt from the Iowa 40 yard line. So they did have chances to extend the margin and put points on the board in the 2nd half but didn’t take advantage of them. The Spartan offense continues to struggle however putting up just 35 points over their last 2 games. They’ve put up only 4 offensive TD’s in their games vs Notre Dame & Iowa.

Defensively they are playing very well. They held the Hawkeyes to just 3.9 YPP and held a very potent Notre Dame offense semi in check with just 355 total yards. Their efforts through the first 4 games has the MSU defense ranked 5th nationally in total defense allowing 248 YPG. Now facing a Michigan offense that simply hasn’t been playing all that well, the Spartan defense will have a chance to shine again this Saturday. Believe it or not, this win gave Michigan State a 3-1 record on the season which actually matches their win total for all of last season.

Michigan had a bye last week giving them extra time to get ready for this huge rivalry game. The Wolverines will be without starting QB Wilton Speight for at least a few weeks so John O’Korn will handle the duties under center this Saturday. O’Korn is a senior who played the 2013 & 2014 seasons at Houston where he had nearly 700 pass attempts, obviously has plenty of experienced. He also stepped in two weeks ago vs Purdue when Speight was injured in the first quarter. O’Korn was 18 for 26 with 270 yards through the air and a TD in that game. Perhaps he can pump some life into a Michigan offense that has been subpar at best.

Versus Purdue the Wolverines were 3 for 3 scoring TD’s in the redzone with O’Korn at the helm after going just 1 for 10 in that stat in their previous 3 games. The defense isn’t a problem. They continue to play outstanding. Two weeks ago they held the Boilers to 10 points including keeping them off the board completely over the final 36 minutes of the game. They lead the Big Ten in total defense allowing 203 YPG on just 3.5 YPP. They are one of just 7 teams nationally allowing less than 4.0 YPP. They have allowed a grand total of 4 offensive TD’s in 4 games.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Michigan has won 7 of the last 9 meeting outright, however MSU has covered ALL 9 of those games. Going all the way back to 1982, the Spartans are 22-12-2 ATS vs their in-state rival Wolverines. The last four times Michigan has played host in this series, they’ve lost 3 of those 4 games outright. Since November of 2006, Michigan State is 31-18-1 ATS in road games. This is their first road game this season.

Wisconsin (-11.5) at Nebraska - (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)

With the exception of their game at BYU, the Badgers continue to get off to slow starts. Last week was no exception as they played host to Northwestern and trailed 10-7 at half. In earlier games vs inferior opponents they led Florida Atlantic just 21-14 with only a few seconds remaining in the first half and they were tied at 10 with Utah State at half. Despite struggling in the first half vs Northwester, Wisconsin then came out in the 2nd half and scored 24 consecutive points to pull ahead 31-10. NW scored on a few late drives to make things interesting but the Badgers came away with the 33-24 win. They outgained the Wildcats 306 to 244 despite running 22 fewer offensive plays. They played the game without one of their top receiving targets as TE Fumagalli who was out with a hamstring injury. He hopes to be back for this game.

Despite their first half problems, the Badgers have dominated this year in the 2nd half outscoring their opponents 98-14. The Badgers are one of three remaining Big Ten unbeaten teams along with Penn State and Michigan. They are 2nd in the league in YPG differential at +212 (Ohio State is first at +229). They are also 2nd in the Big Ten in per game point differential at +27 (PSU is first at +33).

The Huskers have had an extra day to get ready for this huge night game after winning at Illinois last Friday night. They rolled over the Illini 28-6 holding them to just 199 yards on 53 plays. In the Nebraska defense has allowed just 1 offensive TD in their two Big Ten games. Going back even further, they have given up only 2 offensive TD’s in their last three games. However, some perspective might be needed here as their two Big Ten games were against Rutgers & Illinois who rank 13th & 14th respectively in the conference in scoring (non-conference games included).

Offensively they looked much better partly because they didn’t give the ball away. QB Tanner Lee had thrown 9 interceptions this season coming into their game vs the Illini. He didn’t have a turnover against Illinois and threw 3 TD’s. With their win last Friday the Huskers sit alone in first place in the Big Ten West at 2-0. However, the Badgers have owned Nebraska and the Big Ten West as of late. In fact, these two have met 6 times since the Huskers joined the Big Ten and Wisky has won 5 of those meetings. The only Nebraska win in this series was here in 2012 by just 3 points.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Nebraska is 46-5 all time at home in night games including 20 consecutive wins. Wisconsin is 17-5 ATS their last 22 road games. The Huskers have been a home underdog of 10 or more just TWICE since 1980! They are 0-2 SU & ATS in those games vs USC & Missouri. The Badgers have been a road favorite of 10 or more 23 times since the start of the 1999 season. They are 8-15 ATS in those contests.

Odds Subject to Change

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 6
October 5, 2017

2017 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 2-3 0-2 2-3 1-4
Clemson 5-0 3-0 4-1 2-3
Duke 4-1 1-1 4-1 2-3
Florida State 1-2 1-1 0-2-1 0-3
Georgia Tech 3-1 2-0 4-0 1-3
Louisville 4-1 1-1 1-4 3-2
Miami (Fla.) 3-0 1-0 2-1 1-2
North Carolina 1-4 0-3 1-4 3-2
North Carolina State 4-1 2-0 1-4 3-2
Pittsburgh 2-3 0-1 1-3-1 1-3-1
Syracuse 2-3 0-1 3-2 1-4
Virginia 3-1 0-0 2-2 2-2
Virginia Tech 4-1 0-1 3-2 1-3-1
Wake Forest 4-1 1-1 3-1-1 2-3

Louisville at North Carolina State (Thu. - ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals invade Carter-Finley Stadium for a key ACC battle in Raleigh. The Wolfpack topped Florida State two weeks ago in their ACC opener, and they nipped Syracuse at home last week, perhaps with an eye toward this weekend's game. While the Wolfpack are 4-1 SU through five games, their just 1-4 ATS with their only cover that straight-up road win as 10 1/2-point underdogs at FSU. Last season it was Louisville routing N.C. State by a 54-13 score on Oct. 22 in Kentucky. Like the Wolfpack, the Cards are 4-1 SU/1-4 ATS, with their only cover a road win in the Tar Heel State against UNC back on Sept. 9.

Wake Forest at Clemson (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Tigers became the first team to record three wins against a Top 15 team before Oct. 1 when they went to Blackburg and handled Virginia Tech. Can the Tigers bring that kind of intensity to the field in what might be a letdown game against such high emotions? Vegas seems to think so, installing the Tigers are 22-point favorites. Wake took its first loss at home, as FSU came from behind to top the Deacs. Still, Wake is 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight ACC games, 4-1-1 ATS in their past six overall and 7-2 ATS in their past nine on the road. However, the defending national champs are 5-0 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their past five battles in Death Valley.

Duke at Virginia (ACC Network, 12:20 p.m. ET)
The Blue Devils took it on the chin against Miami at home last weekend, suffering their first loss of the 2017 season. Meanwhile, the last time we saw UVA they were pulling off an impressive 42-23 victory on the Smurf Turf at Boise State, winning outright as a 13 1/2-point underdog. After a 34-17 loss at home to Indiana the Cavaliers are 2-0 SU/ATS while winning by an average of 19.5 PPG. The Blue Devils are still 4-1 ATS this season despite last week's non-cover, and they're 11-5 ATS in their past 16 road outings. Virginia is 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home and 0-4 ATS in their past four ACC outings. However, they're 8-2 ATS in their past 10 following a bye week. Duke has managed a 7-3 ATS mark in the past 10 in this series, while the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

Pittsburgh at Syracuse (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m.)
The Panthers hit the road for upstate New York looking to take down the Orange. They're looking to carry over the momentum after Max Browne and company thrashed Rice in a non-conference battle. Pitt is looking to maintain their mastery over Syracuse, as they have won 13 of the past 15 in this series. The Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight in this series, while the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under has hit in four of the past five, too. The under is a recurring theme for Syracuse, too, going 7-0 in the past seven home games for the Orange and 7-1 in their past eight conference tilts. The under is 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh's past six overall.

Miami-Florida at Florida State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
The Hurricanes and Seminoles renew their rivalry in Tallahassee, a game originally scheduled for Sept. 16. However, the game was pushed back due to Hurricane Irma. Miami is trying to prove that it is back after years of mediocrity, and finally slaying their rivals would be another feather in their cap. FSU has been a hurdle Miami hasn't been able to get over, with the 'Noles winning seven straight in the Jimbo Fisher era, including three games by five points or fewer. Florida State has struggled all season, but especially so since Deondre Francois went down with a season-ending injury. That has thrust true freshman James Blackman into a starting role. So far, the results have been mixed.

Miami enters this game on a five-game cover streak inside the conference, while going 7-1 ATS in their past eight games overall dating back to last season. They're also 5-2 ATS in the past seven on the road, while FSU is 3-1-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall mark. The underdog has cashed in 15 of the past 18 meetings, while the road team is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 in this series. The under is a perfect 6-0 in the past six in this rivalry, while going 4-0 in Miami's past four road games and 5-1 in FSU's past six overall.

Notre Dame at North Carolina (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
The Irish hit the road for Chapel Hill looking to kick the Tar Heels while they're down. UNC had a lot of holes to fill on the offensive side of the ball, and a bevy of injuries has really put them behind the 8-ball. They enter this game as more than a two-touchdown underdog at home against the No. 22 team in the land. The Irish are 4-1 ATS in their past five inside the ACC and 11-4 ATS in the past 15 in October. However, they are a dismal 1-6 ATS in their past seven against teams with a losing overall record. UNC enters 5-1 ATS over their past six against ACC foes, while going 20-6 ATS in the past 26 at home against teams with a winning record. However, most of that damage came with much better UNC squads.

Virginia Tech at Boston College (ESPN2, 7:15 p.m.)
Virginia Tech looks to pick themselves up off the mat and get back into the win column after being dusted by Clemson last week. The Hokies, while a fine team, proved their not quite ready for prime time, at least not yet. Boston College stepped out of conference and stepped on Central Michigan 28-8. BC might want to consider a move to the MAC, as they're 2-0 SU against Mid-American Conference teams and 0-3 SU against everyone else. The 'under' continues to hit for the Eagles, going 4-1 in their five outings this season. The under is 7-3 in the past 10 road outings, while going 19-8 in their past 27 ACC battles. The under is also 13-3 in their past 16 games in October.

Bye Week
Georgia Tech

[StarDust Bum]

BIG 12 SPOTLIGHT: Big 12's offenses flying high once again
October 5, 2017

LAWRENCE, Kan. (AP) Kansas is hardly the first team that comes to mind when you ponder high-flying Big 12 offenses.

The Jayhawks averaged about 350 yards per game last season, which ranked somewhere south of the top 100 nationally. Their quarterback situation was an inexperienced mess, they didn't have enough playmakers on the perimeter and their offensive line resembled a pasta strainer.

But everything changed when Jayhawks coach David Beaty plucked Doug Meacham from TCU to be the offensive coordinator. Meacham tweaked his version of the ''Air Raid'' system, installed a prolific QB in Peyton Bender under center and the result has been nearly 500 yards of offense per game.

That puts the Jayhawks on par with the rest of the nation's best offensive league.

Four of the top nine schools in total offense in the Football Bowl Subdivision reside in the 10-team Big 12, led by Oklahoma, West Virginia and Oklahoma State atop the chart. Five of the top 12 schools nationally in points per game are in the Big 12, where the Mountaineers are second only to Oregon.

Kansas gives the Big 12 five teams in the top 20 in passing yards per game.

''You have to be able to keep up,'' said Beaty, who's also a product of the popular ''Air Raid'' system and has been pushing the Jayhawks to play at a faster pace ever since his arrival.

''As far as our total output of offense, we've gained quite a bit more yardage,'' he said of the season so far. ''I think we were 1,412 last year and now we're 1,922 yards offensively, so a lot more first downs, which allows you more plays, allows you to be able to gain more yards.''

Now, there are a few factors at play in the Big 12's offensive dominance.

The first is the talent level across the league, particularly at the quarterback position, where Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph are Heisman Trophy candidates. Throw in Will Grier at West Virginia, Kenny Hill at TCU and Nic Shimonek at Texas Tech and you have a five-some that could stand toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the country.

It's not just quarterback where offenses have talent, either. The Cowboys' Justice Hill has rushed for more than 500 yards, the Jayhawks' Khalil Herbert ran for 291 two weeks ago against West Virginia and Darius Anderson has transformed the Horned Frogs into a balanced attack.

''If you want to win championships, you got to be able to throw it,'' TCU coach Gary Patterson said, ''but you also got to be able to run the football. Especially on the road.''

Like the Horned Frogs did a couple weeks ago, when Anderson ran for 160 yards and three touchdowns to help them win a 44-31 shootout on the road against offensive-minded Oklahoma State.

There are also some talented wide receivers in the Big 12 that are making those quarterbacks - and those offenses - look a whole lot better: The Cowboys' James Washington is averaging more than 23 yards per reception, the Red Raiders' Keke Coutee has already hauled in 31 passes, and West Virginia's David Sills V and Baylor's Denzel Mims have each reached the end zone seven times.

The flip-side argument, of course, is that nobody in the Big 12 is playing much defense.

Yes, the Jayhawks' refurbished offense piled up 564 yards a couple weeks ago against West Virginia, but they also allowed 635 in a 56-34 defeat. Baylor quarterback Zach Smith threw for 463 yards and four touchdowns against Oklahoma, but the Bears yielded 625 yards in a 49-41 loss.

West Virginia, Texas Tech, Baylor and Kansas all rank worse than 100th nationally in total defense, which is particularly abysmal when you consider there are 129 teams in all.

There are inevitable outliers, such as Texas beating Iowa State in an old-school, 17-7 slugfest last week. But for the most part, Big 12 teams are waging a whole bunch of shootouts this season.

Just like they did in the old days.

[StarDust Bum]

BIG TEN SPOTLIGHT: Dominant 'D,' a conference characteristic
October 5, 2017

Twenty-five years ago, Pat Fitzgerald was a two-way player for Sandburg High School in Orland Park, Illinois, in the southwest part of the suburban crescent around Chicago.

He soon blossomed into a star linebacker for Northwestern, leading the once-woebegone Wildcats to consecutive Big Ten championships. He won the Chuck Bednarik Award as the national defensive player of the year twice in a row. He even bounced back from a badly broken leg to reach the second round of accolades.

Fitzgerald was not drafted, though, and never made it in the NFL. He found his calling in coaching, of course, with this being his 12th season running the program he used to play for. Back then, the capability of the defenses around the conference couldn't match the compilation of talent on that side of the ball in the Big Ten these days.

''First of all, we all wore neck rolls back then, and we didn't really play too far outside of the tackle box,'' Fitzgerald said, laughing at the reflection. ''So the game has changed a ton.''

With the Wildcats preparing this week to face Penn State star Saquon Barkley on Saturday, Fitzgerald described a conversation with recruiting assistant Bryan Payton during which he compared Barkley's style to mid-1990s Michigan running back Tshimanga Biakabutuka.

''Only guys in the neck roll generation know who that cat is, but Bryan knew who he was so we were having a great chuckle,'' Fitzgerald said, before offering his assessment of 2017: ''Defensively, I think these young men are incredible athletes. The speed of the game, the size, the strength, it's not even close. It's a much more athletic game than it was 25 years ago. We had some good athletes, but nothing like now.''

The best high school players are still usually the quarterbacks, but the best prep athletes are more often limited to one side of the ball. That has allowed many of the defensive ends, linebackers and safeties to develop faster at their respective positions in college. The overall physical condition of players is simply more advanced, too, providing an upgrade at any position from a quarter-century ago. Pass-happy, high-octane offenses are also potentially harder to maintain in this part of the country than in the south or the west given the unpredictable weather over the last half of the regular season, making the creation of a solid if not dominant defense a must for any Big Ten team with aspirations beyond a mid-tier bowl game.

''I don't know if you can have great football teams without great defenses. They sort of go hand in hand. You've got to be able to play defense, tackle well, apply pressure and all these different things that go along with it,'' said Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio, who's trying to restore the Spartans defense among the national elite after a few years of uncharacteristic vulnerability. ''We're still in that phase of seeing who we are right now, so I'm not counting us into that category yet. I think there's still some things that we need to prove, but we're playing hard and we're playing with confidence.''

Whatever the reasons, Big Ten teams are as serious about and successful on defense as any conference, if not the industry leader.

The conference has five of the top 15 of the 130 FBS teams in yards allowed per game: Michigan (No. 1), Wisconsin (No. 4), Michigan State (No. 5), Minnesota (No. 12) and Penn State (No. 13). The league also accounts for six of the top 25 in points allowed per game: Penn State (No. 3), Michigan and Wisconsin (tied for No. 8), Minnesota (No. 11), Ohio State (No. 16) and Michigan State (No. 21).

There are individual standouts, too, undoubtedly bound for the NFL draft that Fitzgerald never experienced. Though an imperfect, shallow measure, there were two Big Ten defensive players taken in the first round when Fitzgerald was eligible in 1997. This year, there were six.

Iowa linebacker Josey Jewell could be next, thanks to exceptional vision on the field and a relentless inner drive.

''You can't measure at the combine those types of things, but there is something there,'' Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz said. ''That's probably why we almost blew it in recruiting on him. We weren't seeing it. But when you get on the field with the guys ... he's going a little quicker than maybe he should be.''

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, October 6

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MEMPHIS (3 - 1) at CONNECTICUT (1 - 3) - 10/6/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 75-104 ATS (-39.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BOISE ST (2 - 2) at BYU (1 - 4) - 10/6/2017, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 1-1 straight up against BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, October 6

7:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. CONNECTICUT
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Memphis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Connecticut's last 8 games at home
Connecticut is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games

10:15 PM
BOISE STATE vs. BYU
Boise State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Boise State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of BYU's last 13 games
BYU is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

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Friday’s games
Memphis-UConn are meeting for first time since 2014; home team won last two series games. Tigers lost 45-10 in last visit here, in ’13. Memphis gave up 350 rushing yards in their first road game LW, a 40-13 loss at UCF- they’re 2-4 vs spread on road under Norvell. Tigers allowed 29+ points in all four games this year, including 31 to a I-AA team. UConn is 0-3 vs I-A teams this year, giving up 38-41-49 points; they’re 5-8 in last 13 games as a home underdog. Huskies lost 41-38 at home to East Carolina, a team that lost all its other games, allowing 58.8 ppg.

Home teams won last five Boise State-BYU games (underdogs 3-2 vs spread); Boise lost its last two visits to Provo, 35-24/37-20. BYU is 0-4 vs I-A teams this year; they beat Portland State in their opener, then were outscored 126-43 in last four games. Over last decade, Cougars are 3-4-1 as a home underdog, 0-2 this year- they’re 0-4 vs spread this season. Boise lost its only road game 47-44 at Washington State, blowing a 3 TD lead in 4th quarter- they got smoked 42-23 at home by Virginia LW. Since 2008, Broncos are 33-15 vs spread as a road favorite.

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Friday, October 6

Memphis @ Connecticut

Game 307-308
October 6, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
79.743
Connecticut
70.790
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 9
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 14
72
Dunkel Pick:
Connecticut
(+14); Under

Boise State @ Brigham Young

Game 309-310
October 6, 2017 @ 10:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boise State
77.806
Brigham Young
82.838
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brigham Young
by 5
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 9
44
Dunkel Pick:
Brigham Young
(+9); Under

Morgan St @ South Carolina St

Game 503-504
October 6, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Morgan St
33.361
South Carolina St
54.836
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Carolina St
by 21 1/2
32
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Carolina St
by 16 1/2
35
Dunkel Pick:
South Carolina St
(-16 1/2); Under

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[StarDust Bum]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS

Aug/SeptTotals:.......154 - 145 - 9.....51.50%....-27.50

Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS

Aug/Sept Totals:...........41 -33 - 2...........+30.50...............13 - 18.............- 25.50

********************************

CFB Ocotber's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/05/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% - 0.50

Total.................3-1...........75.00%.....+ 9.50


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS

10/05/2017......................1 - 0.............+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00

10/04/2017......................0 - 1..............-5.50...................1 - 0................+5.00

Totals...............................1 - 1..............-0.50...................2 - 0................+10.00


FRIDAY, OCTOBER 6

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MEM at CONN 07:00 PM

MEM -14.5 *****

O 73.5 *****


BSU at BYU 10:15 PM

BYU +8.5 *****

U 47.0 *****