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  • NFL Week 13 lines that make you go hmmm...

    The Miami Dolphins are getting 3.5 points from books in Baltimore for Week 13, despite winning six straight games.

    Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 44)

    The Thursday night game is a clash in styles. Dallas has been playing at an unbelievable level on offense but their defense has been the difference when talking bottom line in respect to their Over/Under results.

    The Cowboys have now gone Under in five of their past eight games despite their offensive prowess and now they’re battling the Vikings, who have gone Under in seven of their last 10 games. Minnesota’s strength has been its defense as the offense has sputtered throughout the season.

    This was a tough total to make but the signs for this one point to a slower paced game (set by Minnesota). The strategy here may be to hold off until game day to pounce on this one. As a standalone, marquee matchup, the masses always like to bet these favorite and Over. The current total of 44 represents the highest total set to a Viking game to date.

    Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-5, 53.5)

    Five points is kind of a dead number in this business but takes on even less significance the higher the game total. We like the home favorite here as the Saints seemed to have recuperated after their season-opening three game losing streak.

    A closer look at New Orleans’ losses show it has taken on a tough schedule so far. Oakland, the Giants, Atlanta, Kansas City, Denver and Carolina are nothing to sneeze at.

    Detroit has been nothing less than terrific in recent games but where its weakness lies is on the road. Losers of three of their past four away from their friendly confines, the Lions may be stepping into someone else’s den this week.

    I really thought the opening number put out by the offshores was way low and that’s been backed up by the early money so far. The line has nestled in at -5 and I think with the high-scoring nature of this game, that difference has less effect on the bottom line of the final score.

    Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 41)

    Because there are -3’s around, Fins fans may want to take Miami and the hook as quickly as they can.

    Though we had confidence in Baltimore this past week, we definitely did not like what we saw. The Ravens sputtered throughout the game offensively and were consistently jeered by the home crowd due to their ineptness against an injury-riddled Cincinnati team. A broad look at Baltimore’s season reflects an on-going issue with its offensive scheme which has translated into six of its games totaling less than 20 points.

    Conversely, Miami is red-hot, winners of six in a row as its offense has clicked at a rate of 27 or more points in five of the past six games. I had this game around 1.5 to 2.5, so the addition of the hook, on top of the three, makes this even more inviting. What’s not to like with a team that could easily win this straight up?

    Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3, 50)

    This is one of the late games which looks like a must-win for the Bills. After getting back a healthy RB LeSean McCoy, the Bills added WR Sammy Watkins to the mix and their offense seemed energized.

    Oakland has been earning every victory this year and look like solid contenders heading to the home stretch.

    What first hit me was the total. I pinned this at 54 for numerous reasons. First, the Bills’ secondary has been very suspect and can be exploited easily, particularly from the high-scoring offense of the Raiders.

    Second, the Bills are always in jeopardy of the yellow flags being thrown their way. Oakland’s receiving corps should easily exploit the Bills secondary. Whether they get the big plays via completions, which will be many, or the penalties being racked up in the secondary, the Raiders will be moving the ball with relative ease.

    When it comes to the Bills, having their star players back on the field should provide for a consistent serving of up-tempo offensive sets and plenty of possessions from both sides. Considering this game is being played on the West Coast and the forecast for Sunday looks like perfect football weather, this has all the ingredients for a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • NFL
      Dunkel

      Week 13

      Thursday, December 1

      Dallas @ Minnesota

      Game 301-302
      December 1, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Dallas
      134.601
      Minnesota
      138.558
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Minnesota
      by 4
      40
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Dallas
      by 3 1/2
      44
      Dunkel Pick:
      Minnesota
      (+3 1/2); Under


      Sunday, December 4

      Carolina @ Seattle

      Game 375-376
      December 4, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Carolina
      131.896
      Seattle
      141.476
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Seattle
      by 9 1/2
      37
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Seattle
      by 6 1/2
      44 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      Seattle
      (-6 1/2); Under

      NY Giants @ Pittsburgh

      Game 373-374
      December 4, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      NY Giants
      137.157
      Pittsburgh
      133.718
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      NY Giants
      by 3 1/2
      38
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Pittsburgh
      by 6
      48 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      NY Giants
      (+6); Under

      Washington @ Arizona

      Game 371-372
      December 4, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Washington
      134.329
      Arizona
      130.114
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Washington
      by 4
      56
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Arizona
      by 3
      49
      Dunkel Pick:
      Washington
      (+3); Over

      Tampa Bay @ San Diego

      Game 369-370
      December 4, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Tampa Bay
      132.069
      San Diego
      140.505
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      San Diego
      by 8 1/2
      52
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      San Diego
      by 3 1/2
      47 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      San Diego
      (-3 1/2); Over

      Buffalo @ Oakland

      Game 367-368
      December 4, 2016 @ 4:00 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Buffalo
      132.942
      Oakland
      139.162
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Oakland
      by 6
      44
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Oakland
      by 3
      49
      Dunkel Pick:
      Oakland
      (-3); Under

      Miami @ Baltimore

      Game 365-366
      December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Miami
      134.094
      Baltimore
      131.678
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Miami
      by 2 1/2
      36
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Baltimore
      by 3 1/2
      41
      Dunkel Pick:
      Miami
      (+3 1/2); Under

      Los Angeles @ New England

      Game 363-364
      December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Los Angeles
      130.961
      New England
      134.929
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      New England
      by 4
      42
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      New England
      by 13 1/2
      44 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      Los Angeles
      (+13 1/2); Under

      San Francisco @ Chicago

      Game 361-362
      December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      San Francisco
      127.405
      Chicago
      131.779
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Chicago
      by 4 1/2
      39
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Chicago
      by 1
      43 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      Chicago
      (-1); Under

      Detroit @ New Orleans

      Game 359-360
      December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Detroit
      131.052
      New Orleans
      139.296
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      New Orleans
      by 8
      58
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      New Orleans
      by 5 1/2
      53 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      New Orleans
      (-5 1/2); Over

      Philadelphia @ Cincinnati

      Game 357-358
      December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Philadelphia
      134.547
      Cincinnati
      127.678
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Philadelphia
      by 7
      47
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Philadelphia
      Pick
      42
      Dunkel Pick:
      Philadelphia
      Over

      Houston @ Green Bay

      Game 355-356
      December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Houston
      122.970
      Green Bay
      137.764
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Green Bay
      by 15
      48
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Green Bay
      by 6 1/2
      45
      Dunkel Pick:
      Green Bay
      (-6 1/2); Over

      Kansas City @ Atlanta

      Game 353-354
      December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Kansas City
      139.682
      Atlanta
      134.509
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Kansas City
      by 5
      53
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Atlanta
      by 4
      49
      Dunkel Pick:
      Kansas City
      (+4); Over

      Denver @ Jacksonville

      Game 351-352
      December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Denver
      134.039
      Jacksonville
      126.608
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Denver
      by 7 1/2
      37
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Denver
      by 4
      40 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      Denver
      (-4); Under


      Monday, December 5

      Indianapolis @ NY Jets

      Game 377-378
      December 5, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Indianapolis
      131.989
      NY Jets
      125.419
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Indianapolis
      by 6 1/2
      55
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Indianapolis
      by 1 1/2
      48
      Dunkel Pick:
      Indianapolis
      (-1 1/2); Over
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • NFL
        Long Sheet

        Week 13

        Thursday, December 1

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        DALLAS (10 - 1) at MINNESOTA (6 - 5) - 12/1/2016, 8:25 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
        MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
        MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
        MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
        MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
        MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
        MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
        DALLAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
        DALLAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
        DALLAS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
        DALLAS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
        DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
        DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
        DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Sunday, December 4

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        DENVER (7 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 9) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        KANSAS CITY (8 - 3) at ATLANTA (7 - 4) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        HOUSTON (6 - 5) at GREEN BAY (5 - 6) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        GREEN BAY is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
        GREEN BAY is 177-126 ATS (+38.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
        GREEN BAY is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
        GREEN BAY is 66-41 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
        HOUSTON is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        PHILADELPHIA (5 - 6) at CINCINNATI (3 - 7 - 1) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
        CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
        CINCINNATI is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
        CINCINNATI is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        DETROIT (7 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 6) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        DETROIT is 62-87 ATS (-33.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
        DETROIT is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
        DETROIT is 8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
        DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
        DETROIT is 2-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 10) at CHICAGO (2 - 9) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
        CHICAGO is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
        CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
        CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        LA RAMS (4 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 2) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        LA RAMS is 175-219 ATS (-65.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
        LA RAMS is 175-219 ATS (-65.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
        LA RAMS is 80-112 ATS (-43.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
        LA RAMS is 137-173 ATS (-53.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
        LA RAMS is 64-92 ATS (-37.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
        NEW ENGLAND is 230-186 ATS (+25.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
        NEW ENGLAND is 230-186 ATS (+25.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
        NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
        NEW ENGLAND is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        MIAMI (7 - 4) at BALTIMORE (6 - 5) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        MIAMI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
        BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        BUFFALO (6 - 5) at OAKLAND (9 - 2) - 12/4/2016, 4:05 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        OAKLAND is 45-77 ATS (-39.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
        OAKLAND is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
        OAKLAND is 71-101 ATS (-40.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
        OAKLAND is 71-101 ATS (-40.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
        OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
        OAKLAND is 55-81 ATS (-34.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
        OAKLAND is 71-101 ATS (-40.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
        OAKLAND is 30-57 ATS (-32.7 Units) in December games since 1992.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
        OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
        1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        TAMPA BAY (6 - 5) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 6) - 12/4/2016, 4:25 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        TAMPA BAY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
        SAN DIEGO is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        WASHINGTON (6 - 4 - 1) at ARIZONA (4 - 6 - 1) - 12/4/2016, 4:25 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        ARIZONA is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
        WASHINGTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
        ARIZONA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
        ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
        1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        NY GIANTS (8 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 5) - 12/4/2016, 4:25 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        NY GIANTS are 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
        PITTSBURGH is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
        PITTSBURGH is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
        NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
        NY GIANTS are 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        CAROLINA (4 - 7) at SEATTLE (7 - 3 - 1) - 12/4/2016, 8:30 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        SEATTLE is 64-35 ATS (+25.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
        CAROLINA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
        CAROLINA is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
        CAROLINA is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in December games since 1992.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
        SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Monday, December 5

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 6) at NY JETS (3 - 8) - 12/5/2016, 8:30 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
        NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
        1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • NFL
          Short Sheet

          Week 13

          Thurs – Dec. 1

          Dallas at Minnesota, 8:25 PM ET
          Dallas: 8-1 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
          Minnesota: 0-2 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game


          Sun – Dec. 4

          Denver at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
          Denver: 3-9 ATS off a division game
          Jacksonville: 4-2 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses by 7 points or less

          Kansas City at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
          Kansas City: 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
          Atlanta: 2-14 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more

          Houston at Green Bay, 1:00 PM ET
          Houston: 1-3 ATS as a road underdog
          Green Bay: 60-39 ATS off a road win

          Philadelphia at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
          Philadelphia: 9-1 ATS in non-conference games
          Cincinnati: 2-8 ATS in all lined games

          Detroit at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
          Detroit: 1-11 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8
          New Orleans: 5-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

          San Francisco at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
          San Francisco: 7-20 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games
          Chicago: 7-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses

          LA Rams at New England, 1:00 PM ET
          Los Angeles: 6-0 UNDER off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more
          New England: 11-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

          Miami at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
          Miami: 2-10 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
          Baltimore: 30-16 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

          Buffalo at Oakland, 4:05 PM ET
          Buffalo: 11-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 7 points or less
          Oakland: 1-10 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

          Tampa Bay at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
          Tampa Bay: 18-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
          San Diego: 9-1 UNDER in home games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

          Washington at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
          Washington: 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
          Arizona: 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

          NY Giants at Pittsburgh, 4:25 PM ET
          New York: 33-56 ATS in weeks 10 through 13
          Pittsburgh: 8-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

          Carolina at Seattle, 8:30 PM ET
          Carolina: 54-34 ATS off a road loss
          Seattle: 13-4 OVER in home games after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less point


          Mon – Dec. 5

          Indianapolis at NY Jets, 8:30 PM ET
          Indianapolis: 36-60 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
          New York: 7-3 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • NFL
            Armadillo's Write-Up

            Week 13

            Thursday's game
            Cowboys (5-6) @ Vikings (6-5)— Minnesota coach Zimmer had emergency eye surgery Wednesday nite, his status for this game is unclear. Dallas won its last 10 games (9-1 vs spread); they’re 5-0 on road, 2-0 as road favorites- they scored 27+ points in last seven games, averaged 7.9+ yds/pass attempt in last four. Dallas has zero takeaways (-1) in last four games. Minnesota lost five of last six games after a 5-0 start; they’re 4-1 at home, with only loss inn OT to Detroit. Vikings are 2-2 as an underdog this year. Home side won last five Cowboy-Viking games; teams last met in 2013. Dallas lost last five visits here, with four of five losses by 10+ points- their last win here was 21 years ago. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 10-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road. NFC North underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 1-1 at home. Under is 8-3 in Minnesota games, 3-1 in last four Cowboy road games.


            Sunday's games
            Broncos (7-4) @ Jaguars (2-9)— Denver is 3-4 in last seven games after 4-0 start; they’re 3-2 on road, 1-1 as road favorite. Broncos are +6 in turnovers in their wins, -3 in losses. Jax lost its last six games (2-4 vs spread); they’re 0-4 at home- they were favored in last two home games. Jacksonville is -13 in turnovers in its last seven games, with only two takeaways- they have only seven TA’s for whole season. Broncos are 20-39 on 3rd down the last two games, but they lost tough OT game to Chiefs last week, a pivotal game. Jaguars won three of last four games with Denver; teams last met in ’13. Broncos lost three of last four visits here, with last win in ’05. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 3-0 on road. AFC South underdogs are 7-11, 2-5 at home.

            Chiefs (8-3) @ Falcons (7-4)— KC won six of its last seven games, is 4-2 on road this year, 2-2 as a road underdog. Chiefs’ last four games were all decided by 5 or less points- they converted 20 of last 36 3rd down plays. Atlanta is 3-2 at home this year, 1-3 as home favorite, with losses to Bucs/Chargers- only nine of their 67 plays vs Arizona LW came on third down, thats how well they moved ball. Chiefs are in Denver/Oakland sandwich; they host Raiders next Thursday. Falcons won 38-14/40-24 in last two series games; teams split last four meetings played here. AFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 8-3 vs spread this season; NFC South favorites are 6-9 vs spread, 4-7 at home. Under is 6-1 in last seven Chief games, 2-9 in Atlanta games this year.

            Texans (6-5) @ Packers (5-6)— Houston is 3-0 in division games, 3-5 outside division; they’re 1-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-18-18-7 points, with win at Jacksonville. Texans are -10 in turnovers in their losses, +1 in wins. Short week for Pack after they snapped 4-game skid with Monday win in Philly; Green Bay is 3-2 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite, with home wins by 7-7-16 points. Home side lost all three series games; Texans won 24-21 in only visit here, in ’08. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-11 vs spread, 5-6 on road. NFC North favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 5-6 at home. Over is 5-3 in last eight Houston games, 4-1 in last five Green Bay games. December on frozen tundra can be dicey for a dome team from Texas- Osweiler is from Montana, but played in college at Arizona State.

            Eagles (5-6) @ Bengals (3-7-1)— This is two sliding teams who desperately need a win. Philly lost six of last eight games after its 3-0 start; Eagles lost last five road games, are 1-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 1-7-6-5-11 points- this is short week for them after Monday loss to Packers. Bengals are 0-3 since their bye, losing by 1-4-5 points; they’re 2-2 at home, and were favored in all four. Since ’08, Cincy is 14-6-1 vs spread as a home underdog (4-0 since ’13). Cincy is 8-3-1 in this series, 2-0-1 in last three meetings; Eagles are 0-3-1 here, with a 13-all tie in last visit, 8 years ago. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 10-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC North underdogs are 2-10 vs spread, 0-4 at home. Bengals are 1-5-1 in last seven games, with only win against the Browns.

            Lions (7-4) @ Saints (5-6)— Detroit has trailed all 11 games in 4th quarter; all 11 games were decided by 7 or less points. Lions are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, with wins at Indy/Minnesota. Detroit has only 7 offensive TD’s in last five games; they had 16 in first six games. Saints won three of last four home games, are 1-3 as home favorites this year; they outscored opponent in second half of last six games (38-3 in last two games). Lions beat New Orleans 24-23/35-27 in last two meetings; Detroit is 3-9 on Bourbon Street, but won here by 8 LY. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 5-6 on road NFC South favorites are 6-9 vs spread, 4-7 at home. Under is 5-0 in last five Detroit games, 4-2 in Saints’ last six games.

            49ers (1-10) @ Bears (2-9)— Niners lost last ten games (2-8 vs spread); they’re 0-5 on road, 2-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 19-19-29-3-7 points- they allowed 30+ points in six of last seven games. Chicago is 0-3 since its bye, losing by 26-6-6 points; they’re 2-3 at home, 0-2 as home favorite, beating Lions/Vikings. Barkley was 28-54/316 in his first NFL start, 27-21 loss to Titans LW. Bears are -6 in turnovers last three games; they have one takeaway in last four games. 49ers won three of last four series games, winning 26-20 in OT here LY, their first win in last five visits to Soldier Field. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-11 vs spread, 4-6 on road. NFC North favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 5-6 at home. Over is 5-2 in 49ers’ last seven games, 1-3-1 in Chicago home games.

            Rams (4-7) @ Patriots (9-2)— LA got crushed in Superdome LW, has now lost six of last seven games- they appeared to quit late in game vs Saints. Rams are 3-3 in true road games, 4-1 as road underdog, with losses by 28-3-28 points in true road games. New England is 6-1 since Brady is back; they’re 2-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-27-18 points. Patriots won last four series games, winning last meeting 45-7 in London in ’12. Rams won three of last four visits here. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-11 vs spread, 4-6 on road. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-5 vs spread, 3-5 at home. Under is 4-1 in Rams’ last five games, 6-3 in last nine Patriot games. Cal native Goff playing in Foxboro in December could be dicey; check the weather forecast.

            Dolphins (7-4) @ Ravens (6-5)— Miami won/covered its last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, winning last two away games, at Chargers/Rams- they’re 2-2 as road underdogs. Baltimore is 3-1 since its bye, allowing 12.8 pts/game in last four home games. Ravens are 4-2 at home, 3-2 as home favorite- they lost at home to Raiders/Redskins. Ravens won five of last six series games; Dolphins lost 30-23/26-10 in last two visits here, last of which was in ’10. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-7 vs spread, 5-5 on road. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-9 vs spread, 4-5 at home. Under is 3-2 in Miami games, 5-0 in last five Baltimore games. Miami is tied with Denver for second Wild Card spot; Ravens are tied with Steelers atop NFC North.

            Bills (6-5) @ Raiders (9-2)— Buffalo won the two games since its bye by 4-7 points; they’re 3-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdog, with losses on foreign soil by 6-3-6 points- they won in Foxboro when Brady was out. Bills have only two giveaways, two takeaways in last five games. Oakland won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 3-2 at home, 1-3 as home favorites- they play Chiefs on Thursday better not look past this game. Raiders won five of last seven series games; Bills lost last six visits to Oakland- their last win here was in 1966 (they beat Raiders in LA in ’91). AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-7 vs spread, 5-5 on road. AFC West favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 5-8 at home. Over is 9-2 in Oakland games, 8-3 in Buffalo games.

            Buccaneers (6-5) @ Chargers (5-6)— Tampa Bay won/covered last three games, allowing 10.7 pts/game; they allowed only three offensive TD’s on last 31 drives. Bucs are 4-1 on road, with only loss in Week 2 at Arizona- they’re 3-1 as road underdogs. San Diego won four of last six games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, losing to Saints/Dolphins. Chargers are 8-2 in last ten series games; they split last four. Average total in last three series games is 59.3. Buccaneers lost three of four visits here, with last win in ’96. Tampa Bay San Diego NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 11-2 vs spread, 8-1 on road; AFC West favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 5-8 at home. Under is 4-2 in Tampa Bay’s last six games, 8-3 in Charger games this season.

            Redskins (6-4-1) @ Cardinals (4-6-1)— Washington is 6-2-1 in its last nine games; they’re 2-2 in true road games, 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs, with losses by 3 at Detroit, 5 at Dallas. Redskins are 47-91 on 3rd down in their last six games. Arizona lost three of last four games, is 3-2-1 at home, with losses to Pats/Rams- they’re 2-4 as home favorites, have turned ball over nine times in last four games (-5). Redskins won eight of last nine series games; they lost 30-20 in last meeting couple years ago. Washington is 4-8 in its last dozen trips to the desert. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-4 vs spread, 4-3 on road. NFC West favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Over is 9-2 in Washington games, 0-6 in Arizona home games. Arizona was outscored 41-16 in second half of its last three games.

            Giants (8-3) @ Steelers (6-5)— New York won its last six games (5-1 vs spread) but last week in Cleveland was only true road game in that span- they beat Rams in London. Giants are 2-2 in true road games, losing by 14 in Minnesota, 7 in Green Bay; they also won in Dallas. Pittsburgh won last two games, allowing total of 16 points; Steelers lost last two home games, to Pats/Cowboys- they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Home side lost last three Giant-Steeler games; Pitt is 3-2 in last five series games. This is only 2nd time Giants have been in Steel City since 1991. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-4 vs spread, 4-3 on road. AFC North favorites are 7-9 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Under is 6-2 in last eight Giant games, 8-2 in last ten Steeler games.

            Panthers (4-7) @ Seahawks (7-3-1)— Last four Carolina games were all decided by exactly three points; Panthers are 1-4 on road- they were favored in four of the five games- they’re 1-0 as an underdog this year. Carolina is 2-5 this season in games decided by three or less points. Seahawks are 6-2-1 in last nine games, 5-0 at home, 2-3 vs spread as a home favorite, with home wins by 2-19-2-6-11 points. Carolina-Seattle met in playoffs last two years; Panthers won 27-23/31-24 in two meetings with Seahawks LY. Carolina lost four of last five visits here. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 11-2 vs spread, 8-1 on road; NFC West favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Under is 3-1 in last four Carolina games, 4-2 in last six Seattle games. Seahawks new 1-3-1 this season when scoring less than 26 points.


            Monday's game
            Colts (5-6) @ Jets (3-8)— Indy is 5-2 this season when scoring 24+ points, 0-4 when they do not; Colts are 2-2 in true road games, 2-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 14 at Denver, 3 in Houston. Jets lost last three games by 4-3-5 points; they’re 1-4 at home, 2-1 as home underdogs, with home losses by 1-10-3-5 points- they beat Baltimore 24-16 for only home win. Colts lost by 1-26-13 points in last three games with Jets, scoring only 10.7 pts/game; teams split last eight visits here. Three of last eight series meetings came in playoffs. AFC South non-divisional road teams are 7-8 vs spread, 2-1 as favorites. AFC East home teams are 7-7 vs spread, 4-2 as underdogs. Under is 3-1 in last four Indy games, 6-1 in Jets’ last seven games.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • NFL

              Week 13

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              Trend Report
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              Thursday, December 1

              8:25 PM
              DALLAS vs. MINNESOTA
              The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
              Dallas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
              Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games


              Sunday, December 4

              1:00 PM
              MIAMI vs. BALTIMORE
              Miami is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
              Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

              1:00 PM
              DETROIT vs. NEW ORLEANS
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
              Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Detroit
              New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit

              1:00 PM
              HOUSTON vs. GREEN BAY
              Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
              Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
              Green Bay is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home

              1:00 PM
              PHILADELPHIA vs. CINCINNATI
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
              Cincinnati is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

              1:00 PM
              SAN FRANCISCO vs. CHICAGO
              San Francisco is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games
              San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
              Chicago is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games at home

              1:00 PM
              LOS ANGELES vs. NEW ENGLAND
              Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
              Los Angeles is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
              The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games at home
              The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games

              1:00 PM
              KANSAS CITY vs. ATLANTA
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
              Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
              Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home

              1:00 PM
              DENVER vs. JACKSONVILLE
              Denver is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
              Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
              Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
              Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

              4:05 PM
              BUFFALO vs. OAKLAND
              Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
              Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
              Oakland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo

              4:25 PM
              NY GIANTS vs. PITTSBURGH
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
              NY Giants are 2-2-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
              The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
              Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

              4:25 PM
              WASHINGTON vs. ARIZONA
              The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington's last 16 games
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
              Arizona is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington
              Arizona is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,

              4:25 PM
              TAMPA BAY vs. SAN DIEGO
              Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
              San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

              8:30 PM
              CAROLINA vs. SEATTLE
              Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
              Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home


              Monday, December 5

              8:30 PM
              INDIANAPOLIS vs. NY JETS
              Indianapolis is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
              Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
              NY Jets are 7-13-1 ATS in their last 21 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
              NY Jets are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • NFL

                Thursday, December 1

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                Thursday Night Football betting preview: Cowboys at Vikings
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                The Cowboys are trying to navigate through their most rugged stretch of the season, with Thursday's matchup marking their third game in 12 days.

                Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+3, 44)

                The Dallas Cowboys have not lost since the season opener but cannot afford to take their foot off the pedal as they prepare to visit the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night. Riding a 10-game winning streak and leading the New York Giants by two games in the NFC East, Dallas has a chance to clinch a playoff spot with a win over Minnesota and some help.

                The Cowboys are trying to navigate through their most rugged stretch of the season, with Thursday's matchup marking their third game in 12 days. “They throw these schedules at you and it’s part of the game,” Dallas cornerback Brandon Carr told reporters. "You get through this one, get through the storm ... you can look back and tell stories about it. It’s something that makes us bond and become closer.” Minnesota, which also will be playing for the third time in 12 days, has been in a spiral since sprinting out to a 5-0 start. The Vikings have dropped five of their last six, including a 16-13 loss at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day to fall one game behind the Lions in the NFC Central.

                TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

                LINE HISTORY: The Dallas Cowboys opened as 2.5-point road favorites and by Monday morning the point spread was all of the way up to the current number of 3.5. The total has wobbled between 43.5 and, the current number, 44 all week. Check out the complete history here.

                WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

                INJURY REPORT:

                Cowboys - DE D. Lawrence (Probable, back), T T. Smith (Probable, back), LB S. Lee (Probable, illness), S B. Church (probable, forearm), DL D. Irving (Probable, illness), DE J. Crawford (Questionable, foot), DT T. McClain (Questionable, thigh), LB J. Durant (Out, hamstring), S J. Wilcox (Out, leg), OL C. Green (Out Indefinitely, foot), CB M. Claiborne (Out Indefinitely, hernia), DE R. Gregory (Elig Week 15, suspension), LB R. McClain (I-R, suspension), RB D. McFadden (Questionable, elbow), OL L. Collins (Questionable, toe), TE J. Hanna (I-R, knee), TE G. Swaim (I-R, pectoral), DE C. Tapper (I-R, back), LB J. Smith (I-R, knee), QB K. Moore (I-R, ankle).

                Vikings - WR S. Diggs (Probable, knee), TE K. Rudolph (Probable, shoulder), S H. Smith (Probable, ankle), LB E. Kendricks (Probable, hip), CB T. Newman (Probable, neck), G J. Sirles (Probable, hip), QB S. Bradford (Probable, ankle), WR A. Thielen (Probable, shoulder), QB T. Heinicke (Questionable, foot), CB C. Munnerlyn (Questionable, ankle), DE E. Griffen (Questionable, shoulder), CB M. Alexander (Doubtful, groin), DT S. Floyd (Out, knee), CB M. Sherels (Out, ribs), G J. Berger (Out Indefinitely, concussion), G M. Harris (Questionable, illness), RB A. Peterson (Mid Dec, knee), T J. Long (I-R, achilles), T A. Smith (I-R, tricep), T M. Kalil (I-R, hip), QB T. Bridgewater (I-R, knee), DT S. Crichton (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Price (I-R, knee), S A. Exum Jr. (I-R, leg).

                ABOUT THE COWBOYS (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Dallas owner Jerry Jones is adopting the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy and sees no reason to deviate from the formula of riding the legs of rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, the league's leading rusher with 1,199 yards. "The more we give Ezekiel the ball, then I think the better," Jones said of Elliott, who also has rushed for 11 touchdowns. "We're winning with that. We're wearing them down on defense." Elliott has thrust himself into the MVP conversation, and one of his competitors may be fellow rookie Dak Prescott, who has 18 TD passes against only two interceptions and has posted a passer rating of at least 100 in nine of the last 10 games. Dallas ranks 31st in pass defense (280.4 yards) and has made only four interceptions.

                ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U): Minnesota cornerback Xavier Rhodes has as many interceptions as the Cowboys and is part of a defense that ranks second in the league with 17.5 points allowed and paces the NFC with a plus-12 turnover differential. With a stagnant running game and an offense that has been limited to 16 points of fewer four times in the last six games, quarterback Sam Bradford is pushing for the coaches to open the playbook and take shots downfield. Bradford (ankle) has been limited in practice this week but hopes to have the services of leading wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who had 40 receptions over a four-game stretch prior to sitting out last week's loss against the Lions with a knee injury. "I think we've got to find a way to create more explosive plays," Bradford acknowledged.

                TRENDS:

                * Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
                * Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
                * Under is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 road games.
                * Under is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
                * Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

                CONSENSUS: The road favorite Dallas Cowboys are picking up 70 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 59 percent of the Over/Under wagers.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 13

                  New Orleans has consistently produced when it gets deep into opposition territory, coming into Week 13 ranked third overall in touchdown success rate in the red zone (70.21 percent).

                  Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 40.5)

                  Dolphins' weak O-line vs. Ravens' formidable front line

                  The Dolphins are making waves in the AFC playoff race, reeling off six consecutive victories after opening the season 1-4. The defense has been garnering the majority of the headlines, but the offense has been equally as impressive, reaching the 30-point plateau three times during the run. But look for things to get a lot more difficult in Week 13, as Miami visits Baltimore to face a Ravens team that boasts one of the most impressive defensive lines in football.

                  The 2016 Baltimore defense may not harken back to the dominant Ray Lewis-led units that propelled the Ravens to a pair of Super Bowls, but it has been impressive nonetheless. All four starting defensive lineman have Pro Football Focus grades of 73 or better, led by Terrell Suggs (81.5). The Ravens have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL entering Week 13 (824), and have surrendered just four touchdowns on the ground to date.

                  Miami appears to be in good position to challenge the Baltimore defensive line given the Dolphins' recent scoring barrage, but a closer look at the numbers reveals some major red flags. Four of the five members of Miami's base offensive line formation have PFF grades below 58, highlighted by RG Jermon Bushrod (40.1), who will likely match up against Baltimore LE Timmy Jernigan (77.1). The Miami offense could be in for a long afternoon this weekend.

                  Daily fantasy fade: RB Jay Ajayi


                  Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-6, 53.5)

                  Lions' defensive generosity vs. Saints' red-zone success

                  By most measures, the Saints have one of the top offenses in the game; this is particularly true at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, where New Orleans is averaging a staggering 34 points per contest. You don't light up the scoreboard that often without being proficient in the red zone - and the Saints certainly fit the bill. That bodes poorly for the Detroit Lions, who travel to the Big Easy this weekend hoping they can find a way to shut down the Saints inside their own 20.

                  New Orleans has consistently produced when it gets deep into opposition territory, coming into Week 13 ranked third overall in touchdown success rate in the red zone (70.21 percent). Only the Tennessee Titans (72.50) and the Carolina Panthers (70.59) have been more proficient. The Saints are over 70 percent both at home and on the road, and have improved dramatically over last season, when they were ninth in the NFL with a 60.34-percent red zone success rate.

                  The Lions are in no position to stem New Orleans' red-zone success. They come into this one ranked 26th in opponent red zone touchdown rate (64.10 percent), with a similar rate at home and on the road. With Drew Brees playing as well as he has all season, and the Saints armed with one of the best home-field advantages in the league, the Lions could struggle mightily to keep New Orleans out of the end zone once it marches down the field.

                  Daily fantasy watch: QB Drew Brees


                  Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3, 49)

                  Raiders OLB Khalil Mack vs. Bills RT Jordan Mills

                  The Buffalo Bills haven't won in Oakland in 50 years. A lot of things have happened since then, most recently the Raiders surging to the top of the AFC West standings with a 9-2 record. Oakland has a lot of players to thank for its stunning resurgence, but one in particular has made a significant impact on the defensive side of the ball. And he's facing a whale of a mismatch this weekend, one that could have singlehandedly decide the outcome of the game

                  Raiders OLB Khalil Mack has been nothing short of spectacular over the past three seasons, boasting Pro Football Focus grades of 94.6, 95.9 and 92.6, respectively. He's the top-graded player at his position, and with good reason: He has nine sacks and an interception through 11 games, along with the only touchdown of his career. And if that weren't enough, he has also forced three fumbles so far this season, recovering a pair.

                  This week's victim: Bills RT Jordan Mills, whose PFF rating of 46.1 ranks him 65th among his peers. It's by far one of the biggest mismatches at any position in any game in Week 13 - and if Mack performs as expected, Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor could find himself scrambling for his life. In a game where the visiting Bills are expected to keep things close, Mack could mean the difference between the Raiders going 10-2 or 9-3.

                  Daily fantasy watch: Raiders D/ST


                  Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (+2, 49)

                  Jets' punting problems vs. Colts' elite kicking game

                  Vegas is expecting the Monday nighter between the Jets and Colts to be a close one, with the Jets boasting a solid run defense, the Colts featuring a high-octane pass attack and neither team all that proficient at preventing points through the air. Much of the focus in this one will be on whether Andrew Luck can thrive after missing last week due to injury - but if field position winds up playing a role, the biggest factor could be the significant advantage Indianapolis has in the kicking department.

                  The Jets and Arizona Cardinals boasted the worst average yards per punt a season ago (36.2), and New York hasn't shown much of an improvement in 2016. It enters Week 13 ranked 29th in yards per punt (38.1), ahead of only the Jacksonville Jaguars (37.8), Washington Redskins (37.4) and Cardinals (36.4). Seventh-round pick Lachlan Edwards has pinned foes inside their own 20-yard line just 16 times in 52 punts this season, a rate that ranks among the league's worst.

                  Indianapolis punter Pat McAfee has been considerably better. The 29-year-old social media dynamo is averaging an absurd 50.1 yards per attempt, easily the best mark in the NFL. He's a major reason the Colts rank third league-wide in net yards per punt attempt at 43.1, nearly 1 1/2 yards better than the mark they posted in 2015. All those extra yards could have a major impact on what is anticipated to be one of the closest contests of the week.

                  Daily fantasy watch: QB Andrew Luck
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • TNF - Cowboys at Vikings
                    December 1, 2016


                    Dallas (-3.5, 44) at Minnesota, 8:25 pm ET, NBC/NFLN

                    December football kicks off with the rare attractive mid-week matchup on the Thursday night slate. Even though a bit of the allure has faded with Minnesota no longer atop the NFC North, we could definitely be getting a playoff preview with the Vikings welcoming in the Cowboys. They've won the last five meetings in the series in Minneapolis, with Dallas' last win coming in 1995.

                    Although any postseason showdowns would almost certainly be played in Dallas, the owners of the NFL’s best record should still be tested here. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott takes the field in one of the most hostile atmospheres he’s experienced in the pros to date to square off against one of the league’s top defensive units, so that combination should make this a challenge.

                    The Cowboys are looking to tie a franchise-record with their 11th consecutive win, which would also guarantee their presence in the playoffs for the first time since 2014 and only the second time in seven seasons. Dallas is perfect on the road despite all the uncertainty it has faced this season, from a rookie backfield to injuries to defensive concerns. It owns wins at Washington, Green Bay and Pittsburgh. It has even survived a potentially nasty QB controversy when Tony Romo took the high road in accepting his demotion. To date, the Cowboys have been bullet-proof.

                    The Vikings started that way too, but have crumbled since starting 5-0. They somehow thrived despite losing Teddy Bridgewater before the season began and Adrian Peterson tearing his ACL in Week 2, but their lack of offense has caught up with them to the point where they’re in danger of falling to .500 after stumbling out of the playoff picture for the first time with their Thanksgiving Day loss at Detroit.

                    Minnesota’s last three losses have been one-possession games. The Lions victimized them twice, first in OT and last week on a field goal at the final gun. The Vikings had Washington on the ropes at FedEx Field two-and-a-half weeks ago before being outscored 12-0 in the second half. Both of those teams have now passed them in the standings.

                    Late Wednesday, news came down that Vikes’ head coach Mike Zimmer underwent emergency eye surgery to repair retina damage, so he may not even be present on the sideline if not cleared. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur and defensive coordinator George Edwards, a long-time Zimmer confidant back to their lengthy tenure with the Cowboys, are equipped to make for as smooth a transition as possible if Zimmer is absence, but it would be yet another obstacle to clear for a team that hasn’t managed to navigate many successfully of late.

                    Injuries, a lack of a running game, poor offensive line play, inefficiency in the red zone and kicking miscues top the laundry list of issues that have derailed Minnesota, but its success at the brand new U.S. Bank Stadium has helped keep it afloat. Three of the Vikings remaining five games will be played there, so they’ll be looking to move to 5-1 with an upset here, instantly keeping hope alive since it would keep them firmly entrenched in the chase for the NFC North title and one of two Wild Card spots.

                    Two of this NFL's season top four MVP candidates have a big stage to shine on here and could potentially make major inroads with big performances. Sportsbook.ag ranks Ezekiel Elliott at (+300), favored alongside Tom Brady and Matt Ryan (+300) in their current future odds. Prescott is +500, rising fast since he's up to 18 touchdown passes against just two picks after going without an interception in November.

                    Dallas Cowboys

                    Season win total: 8.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
                    Odds to win NFC East: 1/7 to 1/12
                    Odds to win NFC: 2/1 to 3/2
                    Odds to win Super Bowl: 5/1 to 4/1

                    Minnesota Vikings
                    Season win total: 9.5 (Over +115, Under -135)
                    Odds to win NFC North: 5/4 to 13/4
                    Odds to win NFC: 10/1 to 23/1
                    Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1 to 50/1

                    LINE MOVEMENT

                    Division odds for the Cowboys opened 3-to-2 back in May, slipped to only 2-to-1 entering Week 1 despite the loss of Romo and are now 1-to-12 after last Thursday's win. The Vikings opened 5-to-2 to win the NFC North back in May and remain in that ballpark after falling behind Detroit. The Cowboys are the NFC favorite, while the Vikings numbers at the WestgateLV SuperBook have slipped due to their struggles. As far as this matchup is concerned, the advanced line was set at Cowboys -2, opened at -3.5 this week and continues to hover in that range. The total is set at 43.5/44.

                    BY GROUND OR BY AIR

                    Prescott hasn't thrown an interception since the Eagles got him way back on Oct. 30 but faces a Vikings squad that leads the NFC with 12 picks, ranking third overall. Minnesota's defense ranks first in opposing QB efficiency, second in points per game allowed (17.5), third in total yards allowed (307 ypg) and is fourth-best against the pass (206.8). Expect the Cowboys to respect the Vikes' strengths, which means they'll lean on an Elliott-led rushing attack wherever possible. The 21-year-old has run for at least 90 yards in nine straight games. After not allowing a back more than 55 rushing yards over the first six games, they've allowed 90-plus in three of the last five.

                    Dez Bryant has injected himself into the fray more of late and had scored touchdowns in four of five before last Thursday's contentious duel with Washington's Josh Norman. Bryant still ended up with five catches for 72 yards and will undoubtedly play with a chip on his shoulder here as he takes on a strong secondary led by safety Harrison Smith and corner Xavier Rhodes.

                    Minnesota hasn't had a 100-yard runner all season, while the Cowboys are the only defense to not allow 100-yard rusher. The Vikings ran last in NFL with 71.1 yards per game and 2.8 yards per rush.That's concerning for the Vikings given their inability to consistently protect Bradford over the past few months.

                    INJURY CONCERNS


                    The Vikings lost center Matt Kalil and tackle Andre Smith in October and tackle Jake Long in mid-December, so nagging issues with their offensive line aren't new. Center Joe Berger (concssion) won't play, so second-year center Nick Easton will get his first career start. The news is better for QB Sam Bradford (ankle), WR Stefon Diggs (knee) and TE Kyle Rudolph (shoulder), all of whom should play.

                    Dallas is hoping safety Barry Church (forearm) is able to return since J.J. Wilcox has been ruled out with a thigh contusion, leaving them thin in the back with Morris Peterson still out with a sports hernia. LB Sean Lee was sick this week, but will play. LB Justin Durant (hamstring) won't. The Cowboys elite offensive line will again be without RT Chaz Green, but did fine without him against the 'Skins.

                    RECENT MEETINGS (Minnesota 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)

                    11/3/13 Dallas 27-23 vs. Minnesota (DAL -8.5, 51)
                    10/17/10 Minnesota 24-21 vs. Dallas (MIN -1.5, 44)
                    1/17/10 Minnesota 34-3 vs. Dallas (MIN -2.5, 45)
                    10/21/07 Dallas 24-14 vs. Minnesota (DAL -9.5, 46.5)
                    9/12/04 Minnesota 35-17 vs. Dallas (MIN -6.5, 44)

                    PROPS

                    Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride a field goal to provide the game's first points and would back that Elliott over.

                    Sam Bradford completions 24.5: (-110 o/u)
                    Dak Prescott passing yards 244.5: (-110 o/u)
                    Ezekiel Elliott rushing yards 93.5: (-110 o/u)
                    Dez Bryant receiving yards 69.5: (-110 o/u)
                    Dak Prescott TD passes 1.5: (-110 o/u)
                    Sam Bradford TD passes+INT 1.5: (-130 over, +110 under)
                    Total combined sacks 4: (-125 over, +105 under)
                    First score of game will be: (-150 TD, +130 other)
                    Total points: Cowboys 23.5, Vikings 20.5 (-110 o/u)

                    COWBOYS AS A ROAD FAVORITE

                    This will be the third time Dallas is favored on the road, as they've won and covered at both San Francisco and Cleveland by a combined margin of 59-27. This will be the first time they're in this role against a team with a winning record. The Cowboys were 1-1 SU/ATS as a road favorite last year.

                    VIKINGS AS A HOME UNDERDOG

                    The Vikings will be a home favorite for just the second time in their new digs. They beat Green Bay 17-14 as a 1-point 'dog on Sept. 18. They were only in this role once in the ’15 regular season and then against in the playoffs, both vs. Seattle. Minnesota lost both times, but covered the playoff setback despite Blair Walsh's brutal miss.

                    NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

                    The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 14 has the Vikings as 3-point road favorites in Jacksonville. The Cowboys are back on the road in prime time next Sunday and have been placed as an early 2-point favorite against the N.Y. Giants.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

                      10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
                      11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
                      11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
                      11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
                      11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
                      11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100
                      11/14/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
                      1/17/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
                      11/20/2016 12-12-0 50.00% -600
                      11/21/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
                      11/24/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
                      11/27/2016 12-10-2 54.55% +500

                      WLT PCT UNITS

                      ATS Picks 98-115-8 46.01% -14250

                      O/U Picks 95-119-5 44.39% -17950

                      Triple Plays:..... 47 - 55 - 4

                      NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
                      NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
                      TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
                      NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
                      INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
                      NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
                      NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
                      NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
                      SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
                      SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 .....( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )
                      THURS DOG OF THE DAY ................1 - 0 ( WASHINGTON + 6 COVERS DALLAS 26 - 31 )
                      THURS TOTAL OF THE DAY............... 1 -0 ( WASH/DALLAS OVER 52 26 - 31 )
                      DOG OF THE DAY...................... 0 - 0 - 1 ( CHICAGO + 6 /TENNESSEE 27 - 21 )
                      TOTAL OF THE DAY.........................0 - 1 ( NYGIANTS/CLEVELAND OVER45' 27 - 13 )
                      SUNDAY NIGHT DOG ......................1 - 0 ( KANSAS CITY + 3.5 DENVER 30-27 )
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1

                        GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

                        DAL at MIN 08:25 PM

                        DAL -3.0 *****

                        U 44.0 *****
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • Vegas Money Moves - Week 13
                          December 2, 2016


                          Bettors have been having their way with Las Vegas sports books in five of the past six weeks of NFL action, but Week 13 has the look of being very favorable for the house and kick off December with figures in the black. CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal has a few reasons to be optimistic that make lots of sense.

                          "Well, first off we already beat the Cowboys last night, so that gives us a little momentum from the first game of the week," he said referencing the Cowboys winning 17-15 at Minnesota Thursday, but failing to cover the spread (-3).

                          It's the second straight week Dallas hasn't covered after being on a 9-0 run against the spread. The past few Thursday's have put the books in a hole right out of the gate.

                          "The only two big teaser games we're looking at this week is Seattle and Green Bay, the 49ers and Bears are playing each other, the Browns have a bye and the Patriots have a large number (-13). If the Patriots are -6.5 to -7.5, the public is all over them, but they're a little apprehensive laying the big number this week."

                          The public's confidence in New England laying double-digits is also downgraded with Rob Gronkowski being out.

                          Teasers were a sore spot last week for most Vegas books with so many spreads hovering around -7, and Simbal said Seattle and Green Bay have also been heavily bet in parlays.

                          "Yeah, they love the Packers again after seeing them look good Monday night at Philadelphia and we're gonna being in trouble with the Seahawks because no one wants the Panthers," Simbal said. "We opened Green Bay -4.5 (vs Houston) and have been bet up to -6.5; no big bets, just a combination of moving with the market and smaller bets. The Seahawks have been bet heavy at -6.5, and -7 and we're currently at -7 (-120)."

                          The public is really down on the Texans and QB Brock Osweiler, which is help spurring Packers action. The other teams the public have been on every week has been whoever the Bears and 49ers are playing. They have a combined 3-19 record (7-15 ATS), but large money has an opinion on the ugly game of the week.

                          "Sharps have been betting the 49ers at every move from +3 all the way down to +1.5," said Simbal, who has the Bears as 1-point home favorite as of Friday afternoon. He said the public has shown no interest in the game.

                          CG Tech books have also taken large wagers on the Falcons who started as 3.5-point home favorites against the Chiefs, but have been bet up to -5. Simbal said the Falcons have six-times more action than the Chiefs. The Falcons have gone Over the total in nine of 11 games this season, including all five home games, but large money has bet Under dropping the number from 49.5 down to 48.5.

                          The Saints have also received sharp play for their home game against the Lions moving the number from -4.5 to -6.5. The starting spread is a little baffling, which indicates that the 5-6 Saints were 2-points better than the Lions who have won and covered six of their last seven. However, the Saints have covered seven of their last eight -- four of those games as an underdog.

                          One of the more attractive games of the day has the New York Giants, riding a six-game win streak, getting +6 at Pittsburgh. "We've had great two-way action with only $3,000 separating the two sides," said Simbal.

                          So yes, overall there doesn't appear to be too many pitfalls for books when forecasting Week 13. Let's go ahead and make the Vegas books a -300 favorite to show a collective win on the week at 5 percent or higher.

                          There's no way to actually validate the true results, but you kind of get the idea how big of a favorite they are to halt their losing streak.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • Gridiron Angles - Week 13
                            December 3, 2016

                            NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

                            -- The Buccaneers are 13-0 ATS (11.04 ppg) since Sep 21, 2008 on the road after a home win where he covered.

                            NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

                            -- The Raiders are 0-12 ATS (-8.23 ppg) since Nov 21, 2004 at home when the total is at least 46 coming off a win.

                            TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

                            -- The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS (-10.50 ppg) since Dec 22, 2013 after Ryan Tannehill threw for at least three touchdowns.

                            NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

                            -- The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-8.90 ppg) since Nov 18, 2012 off a win as a favorite where they scored more than expected.

                            NFL O/U OVER TREND:

                            -- The Broncos are 11-0 OU (6.68 ppg) since Oct 24, 1999 off a home game where they passed for at least 100 yards more than their average.

                            NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

                            -- The Packers are 20-0 OU vs a non-divisional opponent when they are not more than a two-point dog and they are off a game as a dog of six points or less.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • Pick Six - Week 13
                              December 3, 2016


                              Week 12 Record: 1-5 SU, 2-3-1 ATS

                              Overall Record: 33-39 SU, 31-38-1 ATS

                              Review: A rough week as the lone straight-up winner was the Ravens over the Bengals. The Jets cashed as home underdogs against the Patriots, while the Panthers pushed in a three-point loss to the Raiders.

                              Chiefs at Falcons (-5 ½, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

                              Kansas City
                              Record: 8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, 8-3 UNDER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

                              The Chiefs have been outgained in each of their last four games, but Kansas City has found a way to win three of those contests. In last Sunday night’s last-second overtime victory at Denver, the Chiefs mustered less than 300 yards offensively, but improved to 9-3 SU/ATS in their past 12 games away from Arrowhead Stadium. However, Kansas City owns a 2-5 SU/ATS mark in its previous seven games against NFC opponents with one of those wins coming at Carolina in Week 10 by erasing a late 17-0 deficit.

                              Atlanta
                              Record: 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS, 9-2 OVER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

                              The Falcons remain atop the NFC South after cruising past the Cardinals last Sunday, 38-19 as four-point favorites. Atlanta improved to 2-8 ATS as a home favorite since the start of 2015 as the Falcons busted the 30-point mark for the fourth straight home game. Matt Ryan’s touchdown to interception ratio at the Georgia Dome improved to 12/3 following a two-touchdown performance against Arizona. Ryan owns a 2-0 SU/ATS career record against the Chiefs, including a 40-24 victory over Kansas City in the 2012 season opener.

                              Best Bet: Atlanta -5 ½

                              Texans at Packers (-6 ½, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


                              Houston
                              Record: 6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 6-5 UNDER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

                              It’s been a rough road, literally for Houston this season. The Texans have dropped four of five games away from NRG Stadium with the only road victory coming at Jacksonville in Week 10. Houston suffered its first home defeat of the season in last Sunday’s 21-13 setback, the first time this season the Texans have lost two straight games. The Texans have struggled defensively on the highway by giving up at least 27 points in their four road losses, while the OVER cashed three times.

                              Green Bay
                              Record: 5-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 6-5 OVER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

                              The Packers put an end to a four-game slide in last Monday’s 27-13 victory at Philadelphia as four-point underdogs. The Green Bay defense fixed its woes for at least one week after giving up 89 points in the previous two losses at Washington and Tennessee. Aaron Rodgers continued to stay hot for the Packers by throwing for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while eclipsing the 300-yard mark for the third straight week. The Packers have compiled a 3-4-1 ATS mark as a favorite this season, but have lost two of their last three at Lambeau Field.

                              Best Bet: Houston +6 ½

                              Lions at Saints (-6, 53) – 1:00 PM EST


                              Detroit
                              Record: 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS, 7-4 UNDER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

                              The Lions keep finding ways to win as Detroit is coming off its seventh victory this season when tied or trailing in the fourth quarter. Detroit edged Minnesota, 16-13 to even its mark inside the NFC North at 2-2, while pulling off the season tiebreaker over the Vikings. Detroit’s defense has been excellent during this three-game winning streak by allowing 48 points, while cashing the UNDER in five straight contests. The Lions went into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last December and knocked off the Saints, 35-27 as Matthew Stafford threw three touchdown passes in the victory.

                              New Orleans
                              Record: 5-6 SU, 8-3 ATS, 6-5 OVER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

                              The Saints are riding a 7-1 ATS stretch the last eight games, punctuated by a 49-21 blowout of the Rams as eight-point favorites. New Orleans has won two of its last three at the Superdome since an 0-2 start at home, but have put together a 1-3 ATS mark as a home favorite. Drew Brees reached the 30-touchdown plateau for the ninth consecutive season as the New Orleans quarterback tossed four touchdowns against Los Angeles. The Saints had won the previous three home meetings with the Lions prior to last season’s eight-point defeat.

                              Best Bet: Detroit +6

                              Dolphins at Ravens (-3 ½, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


                              Miami
                              Record: 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 7-4 OVER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

                              After five games, the Dolphins were sitting in the doghouse at 1-4. However, Adam Gase’s team has ripped off six consecutive victories to move into the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Dolphins held off the 49ers last Sunday, 31-24, but failed to cover for the first time in six games as 7 ½-point home favorites. Ryan Tannehill is finally getting away from the “game manager” moniker as the Dolphins’ quarterback has tossed nine touchdowns and been intercepted only once during this six-game hot streak. Miami has won its last two road games since starting 0-3 on the highway, but the Dolphins needed late comebacks at San Diego and Los Angeles.

                              Baltimore
                              Record: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-3-1 UNDER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

                              The Ravens have gone through an uneven campaign at 6-5, but that’s good enough to be tied with the Steelers atop the AFC North. Baltimore pulled off the three-game home sweep of divisional foes by holding off Cincinnati last week, 19-14 as the Ravens’ defense limited their three rivals to 14 points or fewer. The Ravens have hit the UNDER in four consecutive games to improve to 7-3-1 to the UNDER this season. Baltimore has owned this series by winning five matchups between 2008 and 2014 before the Dolphins tripped up the Ravens without Joe Flacco last season, 15-13.

                              Best Bet: Miami +3 ½

                              Buccaneers at Chargers (-4, 47 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


                              Tampa Bay
                              Record: 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-5 OVER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

                              For whatever reason, the Buccaneers have played better away from Raymond James Stadium this season. Tampa Bay owns a solid 4-1 SU/ATS road record as the Bucs head to the west coast for the third time this season. The Bucs picked up only their second home victory last Sunday in a 14-5 triumph over the Seahawks as five-point underdogs to improve to 5-1 ATS in their previous six opportunities when receiving points. The defense has been a major reason why Tampa Bay has gotten back into the NFC South race by allowing 32 total points in the last three wins since giving up 43 to Atlanta in Week 9.

                              San Diego
                              Record: 5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 OVER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

                              The Chargers’ roller-coaster season continued in last Sunday’s 21-13 triumph at Houston as 2 ½-point favorites. San Diego has now alternated wins and losses in each of its past five games, looking for consecutive victories for the first time since knocking off Denver and Atlanta in mid-October. The Chargers have won four straight December home games in the role of a favorite, while posting a 4-1 ATS mark as in December/January action last season.

                              Best Bet: San Diego -4

                              Giants at Steelers (-6, 48 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


                              New York
                              Record: 8-3 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 8-3 UNDER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

                              The Giants face the Cowboys in a crucial NFC East battle next Sunday night at Met Life Stadium as New York looks to remain two games back in the division. First, New York needs a victory at Pittsburgh as the Giants attempt to pull off the four-game sweep of AFC North opponents. The Giants pulled away from the winless Browns last Sunday, 27-13 to capture their sixth consecutive win as Eli Manning has racked up over 260 yards passing only once during this hot streak.

                              Pittsburgh
                              Record: 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 8-3 UNDER
                              Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

                              The Steelers return home following back-to-back road wins at Cleveland and Indianapolis. Pittsburgh allowed a total of 16 points in those victories, as the Steelers faced a pair of backup quarterbacks in those games. Since beating Washington in the season opener, the Steelers have lost their other two games against NFC East foes, falling to Philadelphia and Dallas, while giving up an average of 34.5 points per game in those defeats. Pittsburgh has cashed the UNDER in six of the last eight games, as the Steelers are going for their first home win since Week 5 against the Jets.

                              Best Bet: New York +6
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                              Comment


                              • Total Talk - Week 13
                                December 3, 2016


                                After watching the ‘under’ produce an 11-3 record in Week 11, the total pendulum swung the other way during the long holiday weekend with an 8-8 stalemate. Those results could’ve easily been 11-5 to the ‘under’ but three games flip-flopped with late fourth-quarter surges that helped ‘over’ tickets connect.

                                Dallas 31 Washington 26 (Over 53 ½) – 34 combined points in the 4th quarter
                                Tennessee 27 Chicago 21 (Over 42) – 17 total points in the final quarter, 14 from Chicago in final 8 minutes
                                Buffalo 28 Jacksonville 21 (Over 44) – 36 combined points in the 2nd half

                                As always, we apologize to those who had the ‘under’ in those contest and at the same time congratulate the winners. Through 12 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge with a 90-86-1 record through 12 weeks.

                                Home-Away Tendencies

                                There are no divisional games on tap for Week 13, which means a lot more of your handicapping will be based on current form. Along with following the streaks on hand, we’ve got some solid ‘home vs. away’ total angles to watch this weekend and for the final five weeks of the season.

                                -- Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 6-0 at home behind a defensive unit that’s only surrendering 12.7 points per game.

                                -- The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in San Diego’s five games at Qualcomm Stadium this season behind a great offense (32 PPG) and weak defense (25.6 PPG).

                                -- Oakland is 5-1 to the ‘over’ at home.

                                -- The Baltimore Ravens are allowing 14.3 PPG at home this season, which has helped the ‘under’ go 5-1.

                                -- The New York Giants haven’t been able to consistently score (18 PPG) on the road this season and that’s led to a 5-0 ‘under’ mark.

                                -- San Francisco has allowed a league-high 36.4 PPG on the road this season. The ‘over’ is 4-1 outside of Santa Clar.

                                -- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has struggled on the road (24.7 PPG) compared to at home (13 PPG) and that’s resulted in a 4-1-1 ‘over’ mark as visitors.

                                Inflated Numbers?

                                The highest total listed for Week 13 takes place between Detroit and New Orleans. The number is hovering between 52 and 53 points, which isn’t a surprise considering the venue (Superdome). The Saints are averaging 30.4 points per game on offense and the defense (27.9 PPG) is the third worst scoring unit in the league. Despite that perfect combination, New Orleans has only seen the ‘over’ go 6-5 this season. I’m guessing many still believe Detroit is known for its offense but the reason why this team is successful is because of the defense (21.6 PPG). The Lions have been super in their last five games, holding opponents to 17 PPG and that’s produced a 5-0 ‘under’ mark.

                                Other notable games with high numbers to watch are listed below.

                                Kansas City at Atlanta:
                                This total (49) is clearly based on the Falcons, who lead the league in scoring offense (32.5 PPG). Kansas City has had trouble scoring (22.9 PPG) all season and I wouldn’t buy into last week’s 30-point outburst at Denver. Even though that game went ‘over’ the number, the Chiefs are clear-cut ‘under’ (8-3) team and the defense leads the league with 24 takeaways.

                                Buffalo at Oakland: I’m a little surprised this total has dropped from 49 ½ to 48 ½ as of Saturday morning but concerns over Oakland QB Derek Carr (finger) have been brought up. Still, the Raiders (9-2) and Bills (8-3) have been two of the best ‘over’ clubs this season. Oakland’s offense is one of the top units in the league and Buffalo’s attack is playing very well lately. The Bills are averaging 27.7 PPG in their last seven games and that’s led to a 6-1 ‘over’ mark. Traveling to the West Coast is never easy but Buffalo has posted 30 and 25 points in their first two games to Los Angeles and Seattle respectively. The Raiders defense isn’t close to those units and expecting Buffalo to get near those numbers seems very doable.

                                Washington at Arizona: Based on the Cardinals total tendencies (see above) at home, I’m surprised this number is this high. Plus, Arizona’s playoff hopes are in jeopardy and you’d expect a sense of urgency in the desert. A more compelling reason to lean ‘under’ is based on the Cardinals scoring defense (12.7 PPG) at home, which is the best in the league. Washington’s offense will be a nice test but not having tight end Jordan Reed (shoulder) is a big void to fill. The Redskins have been a great ‘over’ bet (9-2) this season but I believe this could be a flat spot for them after coming off the emotional holiday loss at Dallas.

                                Coast to Coast


                                The most popular total angle this season churned out more profits in Week 12 as the ‘over’ went 2-1 in games where teams from the West Coast are playing in the Eastern Time Zone.

                                Arizona 19 at Atlanta 38 (Over 49)
                                San Francisco 24 at Miami 31 (Over 45)
                                Seattle 5 at Tampa Bay 14 (Under 46)

                                Including the results from Week 12, the ‘over’ is now 13-2 (87%) with these matchups. If you include the numbers from last season when this trend picked up, the ‘over’ is 24-7 (77%) during this span.

                                We only have five matchups remaining (one Sunday) this season and if all five games happen to go ‘under’ the number, most bettors would still take any angle that hits at a 65 percent clip (13-7).

                                Week 13 – Los Angeles at New England: Make a note that this is the lowest total (44) the Patriots have seen since QB Tom Brady returned to the lineup.
                                Week 14 – Arizona at Miami, San Diego at Carolina
                                Week 15 – San Francisco at Atlanta
                                Week 16 – San Diego at Cleveland

                                Under the Lights

                                The ‘under’ posted a 2-1 mark in the primetime matchups last week and the overall mark for the season is 22-17-1 to the low side which includes this past result on Thursday between Dallas and Minnesota.

                                Carolina at Seattle: This pair has met six times in the last five seasons and the first three matchups were good old fashioned slugfests (16-12, 12-7, 13-9) but the last three encounters had the scoreboard operator working hard with an average combined score of 51 PPG. For the seventh installment, the oddsmakers expect somewhere in between and have the total listed at 44. You could point to the ‘over’ knowing both clubs are beat up on the defensive side of the ball but the travel toll on both teams this season has been a nightmare. Carolina has played better offensively on the road (27.2 PPG) and that effort has helped the ‘over’ go 4-1 in its road games. Surprisingly, Seattle’s defensive numbers have been better on the road (15.8 PPG) than at CenturyLink Field (18.4 PPG) this season.

                                Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets: This total (48 ½) seems a tad high but the Colts have been perfect to the ‘over’ (5-0) on the road this season. QB Andrew Luck is expected to return and with a few extra days to prepare, I’d expect the offense to play well in this spot. The Jets defense still garners a lot of respect but the numbers (24.2 PPG) tell a slightly different story. Indy’s defense (395 YPG) is far from great but can you trust QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets to do their part? New York has scored a combined 23 points in its last two home games and the ‘under’ connected easily in both.

                                Fearless Predictions

                                Tough holiday weekend ended ugly and the Buccaneers team total summed up the slate. We’ve got five weeks in the regular season left to erase the deficit ($430) and hopefully it starts in Week 13. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

                                Best Over: Tampa Bay-San Diego 47 ½

                                Best Under: Kansas City-Atlanta 49

                                Best Team Total: Under Baltimore 22

                                Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)

                                Over Tampa Bay-San Diego 38 ½
                                Under 49 Denver-Jacksonville
                                Over 39 ½ Buffalo-Oakland
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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