The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

Belichick says he 'can't take it anymore' with tablet use
October 18, 2016

BOSTON (AP) Bill Belichick is throwing in the towel in his ongoing fight with the use of tablets on the sideline.

Responding to a question in a conference call Tuesday about headset issues the Patriots had during last week's win over the Bengals, Belichick said he ''can't take it anymore'' with the tablets, adding there isn't enough consistency in the performance of the devices.

He also railed for several minutes about on-going issues with NFL technology, including the communication system between coaches in the press box and those on the field, as well as the coach-to-quarterback play calling system, which Belichick said ''fail on a regular basis.''

Earlier this season Belichick was caught on camera slamming down a sideline tablet following a Bills touchdown.

Belichick said going forward he's going to stick with low tech - printed images taken of plays during the game to help strategize on the sideline

[StarDust Bum]

Injuries prompt Colts to sign Coffman as backup tight end
October 18, 2016

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) The Indianapolis Colts signed tight end Chase Coffman on Tuesday, two days after losing starter Dwayne Allen with an injured right ankle.

Coach Chuck Pagano did not provide an update on Allen's injury Monday and there was no scheduled availability Tuesday.

Allen left early in Sunday night's loss in Houston and his lower right leg was wrapped in a huge ice pack.

Coffman signed with the Colts just before the start of training camp in July and was released in the final round of cuts. Before signing with Indy, Coffman played in 37 NFL games with Cincinnati, Atlanta, Tennessee and most recently Seattle last season.

He has 18 receptions, 177 yards and two touchdowns in six NFL seasons.

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals climb back to .500, Jets in freefall
October 18, 2016

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) A dynamic running back and a stifling defense have the Arizona Cardinals back to .500.

Offensive problems galore have the New York Jets in a freefall.

David Johnson ran 58 yards for a touchdown the second time he touched the ball, the first of his three scores in the Cardinals 28-3 victory over the Jets on Monday night.

''An unbelievable job up front,'' Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer said. ''I had a really good view of it. We were man-to-man. We had everybody blocked. He did a great job of setting up his second level blocks, and then he showed that explosion and that speed down the sideline.''

Johnson rushed for 111 yards and scored three touchdowns. Arizona (3-3) outgained the Jets on the ground 171-33. New York entered the game second in the NFL in run defense at 68 yards per game.

The Cardinals have won two in a row with a Sunday night home game against Seattle coming up.

New York (1-5) managed only a 39-yard field goal by Nick Folk.

''Holding them to three points was unbelievable,'' Palmer said. ''We were flying around on defense. We were hitting the quarterback. We were stopping the run game, contesting some of the passes in there.''

Jets wide receiver Brandon Marshall said his team's performance was ''just not good enough.''

''All over the place, across the board, just wasn't good enough,'' he said.

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched after New York's best drive of the night ended in an interception in the end zone. Geno Smith came on, and his lone series ended in Tyrann Mathieu's first interception of the season .

''You never want to be pulled out of a game in that situation,'' Fitzpatrick said. ''But it's not something I can sit and hang my head. I have to keep a positive outlook, but not in a situation you want to be in.''

Smith would like to have his shot at the job, of course, when the Jets play at home against Baltimore on Sunday.

''Every guy who isn't out there wants to be out there,'' he said. ''That is just the nature of the business.''

Here are some things to consider from the Cardinals' dominant win over New York.

SHORT GAINS: The Jets took the long passes away that have been Arians' trademark, so the Cardinals were content to go with shorter stuff.

''They made us get rid of the ball quick,'' Palmer said. ''They did a number of things to put us in situations where the ball had to come out quick. I feel like we normally have big chunk plays. They forced us to get rid of it quick and we did a good job capitalizing in those situations.''

The Cardinals had a touchdown drive of 11 plays and two more of 14 plays.

RUNNING WILD: A week after he rushed for 157 yards at San Francisco, Johnson was at it again.

After rushing for 111 and catching three passes for 27 yards, Johnson leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 833. His eight rushing touchdowns also are most in the league.

PALMER'S HAMSTRING: Palmer, who had missed the previous contest with a concussion, left the game with a strained hamstring after his nine-yard touchdown pass to Michael Floyd in the fourth quarter.

Arians said he didn't think it was anything serious, and Palmer brushed it off.

''Just cramping,'' he said. ''A number of long, long-play drives, just a little dehydration, a little cramp.''

OFFENSIVE WOES: Coach Todd Bowles said there is much more to the Jets' offensive woes than the quarterback play.

''We're not scoring. We're not moving the ball,'' he said. ''A whole bunch of things wrong, obviously. The coaches, the players. We're not making plays. We're not putting them in the right position to make plays, obviously by the results. As coaches, we've got to do a better job. As players, we've got to do a better job.''

Bowles said the offensive problems Monday night stemmed from a lack of time for Fitzpatrick in the pocket.

''It definitely wasn't Fitz's fault,'' Bowles said. ''I mean, he barely had time to throw. So, anybody we'd have put back there would have had a problem I think.''

REPLACEMENT GUARDS: The Cardinals got good performances from Earl Watford and John Wetzel in their first start at guard after injuries sidelined Evan Mathis and Mike Iupati.

Arians was especially pleased with Watford's downfield blocking on Johnson's long TD run.

''Our job is to run the ball and protect,'' Watford said. ''That is what we did today.''

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

Money Line

4:25 pm 10/23/2016
(473) NEW ENGLAND @(474) PITTSBURGH
Play ON PITTSBURGH using the money line in Home games in October games.
The record is 38 Wins and 8 Losses since 1992 (+26.85 units)
BET NOW!

4:05 pm 10/23/2016
(469) SAN DIEGO @(470) ATLANTA
Play AGAINST ATLANTA using the money line in All games as a favorite.
The record is 3 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-12.4 units)
BET NOW!

4:05 pm 10/23/2016
(469) SAN DIEGO @(470) ATLANTA
Play AGAINST ATLANTA using the money line in All games as a favorite.
The record is 6 Wins and 11 Losses for the last three seasons (-16 units)
BET NOW!

4:05 pm 10/23/2016
(471) TAMPA BAY @(472) SAN FRANCISCO
Play ON TAMPA BAY using the money line in All games in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points.
The record is 5 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.1 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(453) MINNESOTA @(454) PHILADELPHIA
Play ON MINNESOTA using the money line in All games in all lined games.
The record is 16 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(465) INDIANAPOLIS @(466) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using the money line in Home games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.2 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(463) OAKLAND @(464) JACKSONVILLE
Play AGAINST OAKLAND using the money line in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 41 Wins and 70 Losses since 1992 (-54.9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(459) CLEVELAND @(460) CINCINNATI
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in all games.
The record is 3 Wins and 19 Losses for the last two seasons (-16.7 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(459) CLEVELAND @(460) CINCINNATI
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in all lined games.
The record is 3 Wins and 19 Losses for the last two seasons (-16.7 units)
BET NOW!

9:30 am 10/23/2016
(451) NY GIANTS @(452) LA RAMS
Play AGAINST LA RAMS using the money line in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 36 Wins and 80 Losses since 1992 (-49.2 units)
BET NOW!

-----------------------------

NFL TRENDS

ATS

4:05 pm 10/23/2016
(469) SAN DIEGO @(470) ATLANTA
Play ON SAN DIEGO against the spread in All games off a division game.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!

4:05 pm 10/23/2016
(469) SAN DIEGO @(470) ATLANTA
Play AGAINST ATLANTA against the spread in All games as a favorite.
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.4 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(453) MINNESOTA @(454) PHILADELPHIA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all lined games.
The record is 19 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+15.7 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(463) OAKLAND @(464) JACKSONVILLE
Play AGAINST OAKLAND against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 35 Wins and 75 Losses since 1992 (-47.5 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(465) INDIANAPOLIS @(466) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 4 Wins and 22 Losses for the last three seasons (-20.2 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(465) INDIANAPOLIS @(466) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 2 Wins and 13 Losses for the last two seasons (-12.3 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(463) OAKLAND @(464) JACKSONVILLE
Play ON OAKLAND against the spread in Road games against conference opponents.
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(453) MINNESOTA @(454) PHILADELPHIA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all games.
The record is 19 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+15.7 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

Half Time


9:30 am 10/23/2016
(451) NY GIANTS @(452) LA RAMS
Play ON LA RAMS in the first half in Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 14 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.7 units)
BET NOW!

9:30 am 10/23/2016
(451) NY GIANTS @(452) LA RAMS
Play ON LA RAMS in the first half in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 20 Wins and 5 Losses for the last three seasons (+14.5 units)
BET NOW!

---------------------


NFL TRENDS

Half Time Under


8:30 pm 10/24/2016
(477) HOUSTON @(478) DENVER
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line.
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!

8:30 pm 10/24/2016
(477) HOUSTON @(478) DENVER
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 3 Overs and 14 Unders for the last two seasons (+10.7 units)
BET NOW!

4:25 pm 10/23/2016
(473) NEW ENGLAND @(474) PITTSBURGH
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the first half total in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)
BET NOW!

4:05 pm 10/23/2016
(469) SAN DIEGO @(470) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the first half total in All games in weeks 5 through 9.
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(459) CLEVELAND @(460) CINCINNATI
Play UNDER CINCINNATI on the first half total in All games as a home favorite of 4 to 6 points vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 2 Overs and 14 Unders since 1992 (+11.8 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TRENDS

Over


8:30 pm 10/24/2016
(477) HOUSTON @(478) DENVER
Play OVER HOUSTON on the total in All games in October games.
The record is 10 Overs and 1 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!

8:30 pm 10/24/2016
(477) HOUSTON @(478) DENVER
Play OVER HOUSTON on the total in All games in October games.
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(457) WASHINGTON @(458) DETROIT
Play OVER DETROIT on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 12 Overs and 2 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(457) WASHINGTON @(458) DETROIT
Play OVER DETROIT on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!

-----------------------------


NFL TRENDS

Under


4:05 pm 10/23/2016
(469) SAN DIEGO @(470) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games in weeks 5 through 9.
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!

4:05 pm 10/23/2016
(471) TAMPA BAY @(472) SAN FRANCISCO
Play UNDER SAN FRANCISCO on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.8 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/23/2016
(453) MINNESOTA @(454) PHILADELPHIA
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the total in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Patriots at Steelers headlines Week 7, but there's a catch

Ben Roethlisberger was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his left knee and ruled out for Week 7 against the Patriots.

Week 7 of the NFL season includes a great AFC clash that looked like it would feature two of the best quarterbacks of this era. But that won’t happen now. We talk about a few key opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (no line)

Pittsburgh has looked Super Bowl-contender great in its four wins, but equally as awful in its two losses – a blowout at Philadelphia in Week 3, and Sunday’s setback at Miami. The Steelers (4-2 SU and ATS) had only eight points until late in the fourth quarter and lost to the Dolphins 30-15 laying 7.5 points.

But the bigger news came postgame. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee in the second quarter, but returned in the third quarter, though he didn’t play well. Afterward, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his left knee and ruled out for this week’s game. He will have surgery this week, which will determine how much longer he’s out.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady’s return to action has been everything New England expected, and perhaps more. After throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a rout at Cleveland, Brady was back at it Sunday, with 376 yards and three TD passes in a 35-17 dusting of Cincinnati as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Patriots are now 5-1 SU and ATS.

“Big Ben was initially listed as questionable, but is now out indefinitely,” Childs said. “The Steelers will be forced to start perennial journeyman Landry Jones, and I’m not sure we can open this line high enough. I really haven’t given the game much thought because of the Steelers’ quarterback situation, but the line will be well over a touchdown.”

New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (+3)

Sunday morning will come a few hours earlier for NFL fans – 9:30 a.m. on the East Coast, and a wicked 6:30 a.m. here in Vegas. That’s when the Giants and Rams will square off for their game in London.

New York (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) got back to .500 on Sunday, thanks to the sometimes flighty Odell Beckham. The flashy wideout had eight catches for a whopping 222 yards and two TDs, including a 66-yard score that gave the Giants a 27-23 win over Baltimore as a 3.5-point home favorite.

Los Angeles (3-3 SU and ATS) has followed its three-game SU and ATS upswing by going 0-2 SU and ATS the past two weekends. On Sunday at Detroit, the Rams lost 31-28 as a 2.5-point pup.

“The Rams are going to be on the road for 10 days, having played in Detroit on Sunday, now going to travel straight to London,” Childs said. “While I believe that will help them get acclimated to the time and weather in London, that’s a long time to be away from home and family.

“This is truly a neutral-field game, and we have the Giants the higher power-rated team, so we opened them a solid 3-point favorite.”

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)

Through six weeks, there’s only one unbeaten team left in the NFL, and it’s Minnesota. The Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS and are coming off their bye week, following a 31-13 victory over Houston as a 6-point chalk on Oct. 9.

Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Carson Wentz and Philadelphia have cooled off from their 3-0 SU and ATS start, losing SU and ATS each of the past two weeks. The Eagles were a 3-point favorite Sunday at Washington, but lost outright 27-20.

“Man, how the mighty have fallen,” Childs said. “The Eagles were the people’s champ two weeks ago, but now after back-to-back losses, I have a feeling bettors are going to be very shy about backing this team. The Vikings are coming off a bye, playing some great, great football.

“I had this game in the pick-’em range before the Eagles took the field against the Redskins, but after that below-average performance, we decided to open Vikings -2.5, and all the early money is on them. It didn’t take us long to get to Vikings -3, our current number.”

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

NFC West rivals and playoff teams from last year collide in the Week 7 Sunday night game. Seattle (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) edged Atlanta 26-24 Sunday as a 7-point fave for its third consecutive SU win. Arizona (2-3 SU and ATS) still has some Week 6 work to do, hosting the New York Jets in the Monday nighter.

“A huge game and pretty much a must-win for the Cardinals if they want any chance to win their division,” Childs said. “The Cardinals play on Monday night, but we opened them a small 1.5-point home favorite, and a lot will depend how they look in their game against the Jets. The Seahawks are playing some really good football and are coming off a nice win over one of the hotter teams in the NFL.

“I have a feeling the public is going to back the Seahawks, but we’ll see.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 7

Thursday, October 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (1 - 5) at GREEN BAY (3 - 2) - 10/20/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 44-68 ATS (-30.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 102-75 ATS (+19.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (3 - 3) vs. LA RAMS (3 - 3) - 10/23/2016, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 174-216 ATS (-63.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-216 ATS (-63.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-170 ATS (-61.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-85 ATS (-36.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (5 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 2) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (2 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 2) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (4 - 2) at DETROIT (3 - 3) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 127-164 ATS (-53.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (0 - 6) at CINCINNATI (2 - 4) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 68-95 ATS (-36.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (4 - 2) at MIAMI (2 - 4) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 67-95 ATS (-37.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (4 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 3) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 42-77 ATS (-42.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 35-75 ATS (-47.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 4) at TENNESSEE (3 - 3) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (3 - 3) at NY JETS (1 - 5) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (2 - 4) at ATLANTA (4 - 2) - 10/23/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in dome games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (2 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 5) - 10/23/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (5 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 2) - 10/23/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 87-59 ATS (+22.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 227-184 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 227-184 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 177-134 ATS (+29.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 0-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (4 - 1) at ARIZONA (3 - 3) - 10/23/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 31-59 ATS (-33.9 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 39-64 ATS (-31.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (4 - 2) at DENVER (4 - 2) - 10/24/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 20

8:25 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago


Sunday, October 23

9:30 AM
NY GIANTS vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Los Angeles's last 18 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing New Orleans

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. JACKSONVILLE
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 22 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games
Tennessee is 2-11-1 ATS in its last 14 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington's last 11 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NY JETS
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
NY Jets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Baltimore
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
San Diego is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 17 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of San Francisco's last 17 games when playing Tampa Bay
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New England is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games at home


Monday, October 24

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. DENVER
Houston is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games
Denver is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 7 NFL lines are going to move

Minnesota's defense is holding opponents to an NFL best 12.6 points per game and an impressive 287.6 yards per game (second in NFL).

Game to bet on now

Minnesota at Philadelphia (+2.5)

Maybe it’s time to starting taking these Vikings seriously. They’re 5-0 SU (and, more importantly, 5-0 ATS) less than two months after franchise QB Teddy Bridgewater was lost for the season after tearing up a knee in a practice. Many in the league ragged on Minnesota for giving up two high draft picks – including next year’s No. 1 – for retread Sam Bradford. But so far, so good. Bradford has a 109.7 passer rating and has thrown zero interceptions, letting the Vikings’ A-plus defense do the heavy lifting. Minnesota is holding opponents to under 13 points a game (best in the league). If they can get things done against the Eagles this Sunday, they could take complete charge of the NFC North real soon because Chicago and Detroit are up next. This could very easily be a field goal game, so giving 2.5 looks inviting.

Game to wait on

New England at Pittsburgh (+7)

It’s the Steelers’ bad luck that the schedule forces them to play their toughest opponent right after Ben Roethlisberger bangs up a knee. No. 7’s injury and meniscus surgery moved this game from close to a pick ‘em to Pittsburgh being a 7-point home dog, even though there were early-week rumblings that Roethlisberger might be able to go against the Patriots. Oddsmakers seem pretty certain that Roethlisberger will be sidelined, but on the off chance that he plays, the line could move several points in the Steelers’ direction. The Patriots have always played well in Pittsburgh, and are at close to full strength as they have been all season. Combined, the teams are 8-3 ATS.

Total to watch

Oakland at Jacksonville (48.5)

What gives with Oakland? After scoring a total of 62 points in wins over Baltimore and San Diego, the Raider offense threw up all over its cleats against the Chiefs – at home – in a statement game last Sunday. Oakland is now 1-2 at home and 3-0 (with three covers) on the road this season. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has taken advantage of a soft schedule and is back in the hunt in the weak AFC South. Given the inconsistency of Oakland’s offense and Jacksonville’s 8th-ranked defense, the under should get serious consideration here.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 7
October 19, 2016

THURSDAY, OCT. 20

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Bears won at GB LY for second time in three seasons! Though Chicago no covers first three as road dog TY. Pack 8-2 vs. spread last ten in series. Bears “over” 5-2 last seven away.
Tech Edge: Slight to Pack and "over," based on series trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 23

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NY GIANTS vs. LOS ANGELES from London (NFL Network, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rams 2-0-1 vs. line last 3 away have covered last two away from home but were 2-7-1 vs. line previous 10 in role. Fisher “under” 15-7-1 last 23 since late 2014. G-Men 11-17-3 last 31 on board.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Zimmer 5-0 SU and vs. line in 2016, now on 19-3 spread uptick since LY. Vikes “under” 23-15 since Zimmer arrived in 2014.
Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at KANSAS CITY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brees 9-3-1 as dog since 2014 (2-0 TY). Saints “over” 15-7 since LY. Interestingly, Chiefs no covers last seven after facing Oakland.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Curious series domination by Redskins (22-5 SU all-time!). Lions only 4-6-2 vs. line last 12 at Ford Field. Jay Gruden 11-6 last 17 as dog, also 8-2 last 9 vs. points in reg season. Skins “over” 5-1 TY and 7-3 last ten away.
Tech Edge: Skins and “over,” based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cincy has won and covered last three and four of last five in series. Marvin Lewis 13-7-1 as reg season home chalk since 2013. Browns on 5-11-1 spread skid since early LY, Hue Jackson teams “over” 10-3 last 13 (Oakland in 2011 & Brownies TY).
Tech Edge: Bengals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 5-1 SU and vs. line last six in series. Rex Ryan 6-2 vs. line last seven since late LY. Ryan teams 8-2 vs. line last ten vs. Dolphins. Miami 124 vs. line, 3-10 last 13, 4-12 last 16 on board.
Tech Edge: Bills, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiduhs 9-2 vs. line away for Del Rio (2-1 as chalk on road). Oakland also “over” 20-10-1 last 31 since mid 2014. Jags “over” 14-8 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Raiders, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts have won last 9 SU in series, 4-1-1 last six vs. spread. “Overs” 5-2 last seven in series. Mularkey only 4-11 vs. line since becoming Titans HC.
Tech Edge: Colts and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at NY JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets 9-4 last 13 vs. spread as host. If Ravens chalk note 1-4-1 mark last six in role on road.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jets, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at ATLANTA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Falcs have covered last five this season, also “over” 5-1 in 2016 after entering season “under” 16-3 previous 19. Falcs 2-9 as chalk and 9-1 as dog for Dan Quinn! Bolts 20-9-1 last 30 as reg.-season visiting dog since 2012.
Tech Edge: Chargers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Chip Kelly 1-5 SU and vs. line last six for SF, 3-10 L13 in both dating to late LY with Eagles. Niners “over” 5-1 TY, Chip teams “over” 10-2 L12.
Tech Edge: Bucs and “over,’ based on recent Chip trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
“Overs” 6-2-1 last nine in series. Steel “over” 5-2 last seven as host, Brady “over” 23-16 last 39 as reg season visitor (not counting first two TY). Steel six straight covers at Heinz Field since late LY.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at ARIZONA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Hawks have won and covered big last 3 at Glendale vs. Cards. Visitor 6-1 vs. line last seven in series.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on series trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 24
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at DENVER (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
O’Brien only 7-12-1 as dog since taking over Houston in 2014. Kubiak however only 2-5-1 as home chalk since LY, though Broncos 14-8-2 overall vs. line since 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Action
October 18, 2016


NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
Chicago Bears (1-5 SU; 1-5 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-2 SU; 2-2-1 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Green Bay (-8); Total set at 45.5

Week 7 of the NFL begins in the NFC North as the longest standing rivalry in the NFL writes its first chapter of the 2016 season. Chicago and Green Bay appear to be headed in different directions this year, but Green Bay has had their struggles as well as their offense has been sub-par for the bulk of the year.

With Aaron Rodgers under center, and the wide receiver options they've got on the outside, the Packers are built to win with their offense. That unit is ranked in the bottom third of the league in yards/game and below the halfway mark in points/game, so there is cause for concern in Wisconsin. But beating up on an old rival like the Bears who are 1-5 SU right now could be exactly what Rodgers and company need right now.

The point spread for this game is reflective of the two teams' records coming into this one, but having it more than a TD can become problematic for a Green Bay team that has offensive issues. The general perception here is that the Packers are the much better team, but Green Bay has yet to play a complete game this year and that has to be troublesome for those looking to lay the chalk.

Chicago has allowed 29, 31, and 23 points in their three road games this year so there are some positive signs for the Packers to get back on track here, but a seven-point win by the Packers wouldn't be enough to cash a ticket as the point spread definitely lives up to its reputation of being the great equalizer in this game.

Chicago players have started to voice some frustrations after their 1-5 SU start. Last week's one-point loss at home against Jacksonville was especially frustrating because Chicago couldn't close the deal late and it's been two weeks in a row where they lost the game in the final five minutes.

Bad NFL teams always find ways to lose games like that in this league and while the Bears aren't going to be going anywhere in terms of the playoffs this season, this is an organization that's building for the future and learning how to win is part of that process.

Chicago's got enough offensive talent – even with Brian Hoyer at QB – to keep up and put a serious scare in Green Bay this week, but bettors looking to grab the points have to be concerned about Chicago's choking ways late in games the past two weeks.

With concerns on both sides here it's not surprising to see the VegasInsider.com betting percentages relatively equal at the moment. The Packers are getting about 60% of the support from the early money, but the spread has actually moved down from it's opening number of +8.5/9. The bigger bets clearly have no problem taking the points as the worries about Green Bay's offense are prevalent on their mind. I'd tend to agree with them as this might be a few too many points for the Packers to cover.

Green Bay is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games, 2-7 ATS at home against a losing team on the road, and 0-4 ATS after losing by double digits at home. Dallas has been very good this year on both sides of this ball, but they thoroughly dominated the Packers last week. Having Green Bay going through that quick turnaround on a short week and expecting them to completely change things and dominate the Bears is a bit much to ask here.

Best Bet: Chicago +8

[StarDust Bum]

Books adjust to Big Ben
October 19, 2016

Roethlisberger Injury Could Torpedo Steelers' Super Bowl Chances

When the 2016 NFL schedule was announced in April, on the very short list of most important games of the season was this Sunday's New England at Pittsburgh matchup.

The Patriots and Steelers, after all, were the two favorites to win the AFC championship at BetOnline and led by future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, respectively.

Those two have won six Super Bowl rings. And the winner of this game figured to have the inside track to being the AFC's top seed in the playoffs. Good luck to opponents winning an AFC title game in Foxboro or Pittsburgh.

However, the titanic showdown hit a bit of an iceberg last week when the Steelers laid a major egg in a surprising 30-15 loss at struggling Miami while also losing Roethlisberger to a torn meniscus in his left knee.

The good news is that it wasn't a more serious tear, but Big Ben won't play Sunday against the Patriots and there is no timetable on his return following surgery Monday.

It was a meniscectomy, which is the least invasive type of surgery to repair the injury. Roethlisberger's season is certainly not over but it's unlikely he returns until after a Week 9 game at Baltimore at the earliest. At least the Steelers do have their bye next week so that's one fewer game Roethlisberger will miss.

The Patriots would have been slight betting favorites even with Roethlisberger in the lineup, at least following Pittsburgh's showing in Miami, but now they are 7-point favorites on BetOnline, although that line has dropped a bit. It's the first time since 2000 that Pittsburgh has been a touchdown underdog at home.

This injury also likely ruins any shot for Roethlisberger to win his first NFL MVP Award. He was the betting favorite with Atlanta's Matt Ryan entering Week 6.

Big Ben leads the NFL with 16 touchdown passes but was not good against the Dolphins. This will be the 10th time in 13 seasons that Roethlisberger doesn't play the full regular-season schedule.

A loss Sunday would essentially knock Pittsburgh (4-2) three games being New England (5-1) in the conference standings when you include the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Patriots aren't likely to be underdogs the rest of the season with their toughest games Week 8 at Buffalo, Week 10 vs. Seattle and Week 15 in Denver.

New England is down to +125 to win the AFC title following two stellar games from Brady following his suspension. Could Brady win his third MVP Award despite playing only 12 games? Pittsburgh is +400 for the AFC championship. Now the Steelers need to simply concentrate on winning the AFC North and earning at least one home playoff game.

Former Oklahoma star Landry Jones will be under center for the foreseeable future for the Steelers. He started twice for an injured Big Ben last year with mixed results. Jones was 8-for-12 for 168 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 25-13 home win over Arizona.

The next week, he was 16-for-29 for 209 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in a 23-13 loss in Kansas City. If Jones were to go down, Zach Mettenberger, who started 10 games for Tennessee combined the previous two seasons, would take over.

If the Steelers are thinking of upgrading the QB situation, the NFL trade deadline is Nov. 1.

But, no, Pittsburgh won't be dealing for the Cowboys' suddenly expendable Tony Romo because of his huge cap number.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Bears at Packers
October 19, 2016

Chicago at Green Bay (-7.5, 46), 8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFLN

Weather hasn’t really played a factor in many games this season, most memorably impacting a couple of games via rain and that Ravens-‘Skins game with winds from the waning fury of Hurricane Matthew. This Thursday night game will be played in 40-degree temperatures, a reminder that the days where Mother Nature will play a role are drawing closer.

The fact weather has been so mild is another reason why it’s so concerning that Aaron Rodgers hasn’t looked right. Rodgers is completing 60.2 percent of his passes, ranking 23rd in the NFL. Over his career, he’s a 65-percent passer, but has seen that completion percentage dip every year since topping out at 68.3 back in 2011. It’s no crime if he’s not going to age as gracefully as Tom Brady, but the drop-off has been unexpected enough to question whether he’s injured.

It’s not like Rodgers has had to deal with multiple elite defenses this season. Outside of the Vikings, who held Green Bay to a season-low two scoring drives, the Jaguars, Lions, Giants and Cowboys don’t boast the type of resistance that should be rattling a two-time MVP who looked like he’d be fine with top target Jordy Nelson back.

Is this a slump? Last week’s careless interception was Rodgers’ third in two games. Although he threw for seven touchdowns and just one pick in September, there were instances of sloppy play before the month began. Considering the talent at receiver that the Packers enjoy, Rodgers’ struggles are to blame.

“'I just think it's accuracy,” Rodgers said. “I've missed a couple that I'm used to hitting. And you hit those and you take away the throwaways, being able to hit some things on some of those plays instead of extending and throwing the ball away and we're right where we need to be.”

Eddie Lacy’s ankle isn’t expected to be healed enough for him to suit up, so the Packers will be relying on Rodgers to right himself without much support from the ground game. James Starks remains out with a knee injury that may keep him out into November, which means the newly acquired Knile Davis will arrive from Kansas City and immediately be in the mix for meaningful snaps.

The Bears haven't had QB Jay Cutler (thumb) and RB Jeremy Langford (ankle) for the past few games and should see them miss another due to a short week. Brian Hoyer has thrown for 300 yards in each of his four starts, throwing six touchdown passes without being intercepted. He's averaged just over 30 completions per game, while rookie Jordan Howard and the versatile Ka'Deem Carey have tried to hold down the rushing attack.

Red-zone efficiency has been a major issue for Chicago, which has settled for six Connor Barth field goals in its last two losses, falling to 1-5, its worst start since 2004. The Bears have averaged 1.5 yards per carry in the red zone and rank 24th in points per possession when reaching the opponents' 20-yard line. Regardless of Rodgers' struggles, that's not going to cut it in order to pull an upset at Lambeau.

Chicago Bears
Season win total: 7.5 (Over +145, Under -165)
Odds to win NFC North: 8/1 to 200/1
Odds to win NFC: 20/1 to 500/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 1000/1

Green Bay Packers
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -170, Under +150)
Odds to win NFC North: 5/8 to 2/1
Odds to win NFC: 5/1 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1 to 100/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Packers were 4-to-5 to win the NFC North last week, the first time they weren't the listed favorite since Minnesota was +100. After falling to Dallas, Green Bay saw the WestgateLV SuperBook offer up 2-to-1 odds on a division title, the highest payout that's been available on them thus far this season. After losing at home to Jacksonville, the Bears were placed at 200-to-1 to win the North after entering Sunday at 80-to-1. Bettors who faded the that preseason win total for Chicago have to love their position, but Packer-backers have to be a little concerned that the OVER looks so far away. As far as this matchup is concerned, most books set the opening number at Packers -9, though CG Technology went -10. After hovering around 9 and 9.5 all Monday, many bettors took the points and books adjusted, settling in at 7.5 at most books including the WestgateLV SuperBook. There are some -8s are out there. The total appears to have settled at 46.

INJURY CONCERNS

In addition to the aforementioned injury situations covered above, both teams have other issues. Bears LG Josh Sitton, formerly a Green Bay mainstay at guard, will be out with an ankle injury. Eddie Royal, who has been heavily targeted by Hoyer and has 18 receptions over his last three games, will miss Thursday’s game with a toe injury. Cameron Meredith will continue to serve in a heightened role. TE Zach Miller is dealing with a rib injury, CBs Tracy Porter (knee), Bryce Callahan (hamstring) and Deiondre Hall (ankle) could all miss this contest, which would leave the Bears awfully thin in the secondary.
Green Bay also has major concerns in its defensive backfield since corners Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins have been ruled out with groin injuries. The Packers have already been without Sam Shields all season, so their secondary will be relying on some inexperienced players here. Up front, the Pack will have Brian Bulaga (back) in the mix and also got good news regarding Randall Cobb’s back and should have his play-making ability out there.

WOULD P-A-N-I-C FOLLOW PACK LOSS?

Since Rodgers took over for Brett Favre back in 2008, Green Bay’s worst start through six games has been 3-3, so it’s not like an upset would leave them in unprecedented territory. In fact, the Pack went out and won a Super Bowl after finding themselves at .500 through six games back in 2010, but a loss would be the fifth in their last eight home games, where Rodgers once seemed invincible.
Rodgers is 12-4 in his career against the Bears and has thrown for 35 touchdowns against his team’s oldest rival, so no one is going to be buying the r-e-l-a-x routine if he can’t beat this depleted group. Questions about whether the magic with head coach Mike McCarthy has worn off have already started being whispered, so there’s certainly a sense of desperation settling in. Former Packer standout WR Greg Jennings has piled on, pointing out that Rodgers has been able to avoid serious criticism over the years but can no longer do so. With the Thursday night stage to himself, Rodgers’ play will be heavily scrutinized.

RECENT MEETINGS (Green Bay 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS last five; OVER 4-1)

11/26/15 Chicago 17-13 at Green Bay (GB -7.5, 45)
9/13/15 Green Bay 31-23 at Chicago (GB -6, 48.5)
11/9/14 Green Bay 55-14 vs. San Diego (GB -9, 53)
9/28/14 Green Bay 38-17 at Chicago (GB -2, 51)
12/29/13 Green Bay 33-28 at Chicago (GB -3, 51)

PACKERS AS A HOME FAVORITE

The Packers were 9-0 including the postseason in 2014, going 6-2-1 against the spread, but have slumped at Lambeau over the past year-plus. In '15, they were 5-3 SU and just 4-4 ATS, but covered only one of their last five. Green Bay is 1-1-1 ATS this season in winning two of its first three, but is just 1-2 at Lambeau over the past three seasons against these Bears.

BEARS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

Chicago hasn't covered a road game this season, arriving in Green Bay 0-3. The Bears actually went 4-1 SU and ATS as road dogs to close out 2015, which includes the 17-13 Thursday night upset last Thanksgiving.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 8 has Packers as 2.5-point underdogs at Atlanta in a matchup to look forward to. The Bears are a 5.5-point home underdog as they square off against Minnesota in another national showcase. Jay Cutler could return Monday night.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some football trends to consider for Week 7………

— Chicago is 7-17-1 vs spread in last 25 NFC North games.

— Falcons covered seven of their last nine games.

— Patriots are 5-13 vs spread in last 18 games as a road favorite.

— Houston is 10-4-1 vs spread in its last fifteen games.

— Oakland covered its last six road games.

— Seattle is 10-5 vs spread in last fifteen NFC West games.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: NFL’s top 10 and bottom 3……

32) Browns— Jimmy Haslam owns the Browns; apparently his brother Bill is the governor of Tennessee. Wonder if they bet on last week’s game with the Titans and if so, did the governor give his brother seven points?

31) 49ers— San Francisco has allowed 42 pts/game in losing all three road games- they’ve been outscored 54-17 in second half of their last two games.

30) Jets— Geno Smith gets the nod under center for Gang Green this week; not sure why they have four QB’s, two who have never played in the NFL, but they do. Short week this week for their game with the Ravens.

10) Steelers— Ready to drop them out of top 10 until Big Ben returns, but there isn’t anyone better to put ahead of them this week. Landry Jones has started two NFL games but didn’t last long in the one Steelers won.

9) Raiders— Why are they getting points in Jacksonville this week? They’re 3-0 on the road.

8) Bills— So much for trying to have balance on offense. Rex Ryan wanted them to run the ball more, so he fired the OC and told the new guy to run it more, which they have, and very well.

7) Redskins— Jay Gruden was a head coach for 162 games in the Arena League and UFL before he got his chance in the NFL— he’s a really good coach who paid his dues.

6) Broncos— Not sold on either of their QBs, but their defense is really good and they’re still the defending champs.

5) Seahawks— They’ve slipped some but with 14 rookies and a veteran core, expect them to play better as the season rolls along.

4) Cowboys— Why would you replace Dak Prescott? Dallas won their last five games, they won easily at Green Bay, Cowboys have it rolling. Don’t mess with a winning streak.

3) Falcons— Was just as impressed with them in their loss in Seattle as I was by their wins. Atlanta gained 269 yards IN THE THIRD QUARTER at Seattle last week.

2) Patriots— Wonder if Microsoft stock will take a hit now that Belichick has disowned the tablets teams use on the sideline.

1) Vikings— Sam Bradford went thru training camp with the Eagles, now he goes back to Philly in Week 7 as the starting QB of the hottest team in the league.