The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

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Former NFL player Dennis Byrd killed in car accident
October 15, 2016

Dennis Byrd was an inspiration for far more than anything he ever accomplished on a football field.

He was able to walk again.

And with each step he took toward recovery from paralysis while guided by his always-present faith, Byrd defied doctors' grim predictions and became a symbol of perseverance and hope.

On Saturday, the former NFL defensive lineman whose career was ended by a neck injury, was killed in a car accident. He was 50.

The Oklahoma Highway Patrol said Byrd died in a two-vehicle collision on Oklahoma 88 north of Claremore.

The Tulsa World first reported Byrd's death. He starred at Mustang High School outside Oklahoma City and then at the University of Tulsa before playing for the New York Jets.

''We extend our sincere condolences to Dennis' wife, Angela, their children and the entire Byrd family,'' said Dr. Derrick Gragg, Tulsa's athletic director. ''Dennis exemplified true determination, tremendous heart and humility throughout his life. He had a tremendous playing career at TU and professionally with the New York Jets. He overcame great personal adversity after a life-altering injury on the football field.

''We know that Dennis touched numerous lives and will be missed by many.''

The Oologah-Talala Emergency Medical Services said the crash happened about 11 a.m. between Oologah and Claremore. It said a 17-year-old Claremore youth driving a 2000 Ford Explorer northbound on Oklahoma 88 veered into the oncoming lane, striking the 2004 Hummer H2 that Byrd was driving.

Byrd, who had returned to his home in Talala in recent years, was pronounced dead at the scene, and the 17-year-old driver and a 12-year-old passenger in Byrd's vehicle were taken in critical condition to Saint Francis Hospital in Tulsa.

The 6-foot-5, 270-pound Byrd was a second-round draft pick of the Jets in 1989 and quickly became a fan favorite for his intensity on the field as much as his humble, soft-spoken approach off it.

He was considered one of the NFL's promising young defensive ends during his first three seasons, racking up 27 sacks - a mark that only two players in franchise history surpassed: Mark Gastineau with 33 1/2 from 1979-81 and John Abraham with 27 1/2 from 2000-02.

Byrd had one sack midway through his fourth season when his life was changed during a game on Nov. 29, 1992, against Kansas City.

He broke his neck after slamming headfirst into the chest of teammate Scott Mersereau as Chiefs quarterback David Krieg stepped forward to avoid a sack. The impact broke the C-5 vertebra in Byrd's neck, leaving him briefly paralyzed, although doctors were uncertain if Byrd would ever be able to walk again.

After a vigorous rehabilitation over the next several months, Byrd returned to the Meadowlands for the Jets' opening game the following season and walked - gingerly but unaided - to midfield as an honorary captain.

He never fully recovered from the injury, walking with some difficulty and going through continuous rehabilitation during the years since. But Byrd, a devout Christian, wrote a book in 1993 called ''Rise and Walk: The Trial and Triumph of Dennis Byrd,'' which detailed how he relied on his faith and family to push through his injury to recover and serve an inspiration to others who went through similar situations.

Byrd's story was later made into a made-for-TV movie, with actor-director Peter Berg playing him.

During the 2010 season, Byrd sent then-Jets coach Rex Ryan the No. 90 jersey that had been torn from his torso on the field after the collision as an inspirational gift.

As a guest of the team, Byrd delivered a moving speech to the Jets at their hotel the night before a 28-21 playoff victory over the New England Patriots - during which the Jets had hung Byrd's jersey in their locker room.

Running back LaDainian Tomlinson and safety James Ihedigbo also carried out a green and white No. 90 jersey to midfield for the coin toss before the game. Many Jets players credited Byrd's speech for helping motivate them to the victory.

''Hearing about his story for the first time really makes you understand how fortunate we are and how fragile your career is,'' then-quarterback Mark Sanchez said at the time. ''These moments you have on the plane, hanging around in the locker room, having fun with guys, going to eat, playing on the field, it's pretty special. It can end at any moment. That was just a good reminder for us of how fortunate we are.''

No Jets player has worn No. 90 since Byrd, and on Oct. 28, 2012, the team honored him at halftime of its game against Miami by making him the fifth player in franchise history to have his number retired.

Mersereau introduced Byrd to the crowd, saying the most touching moment of his life came when he visited Byrd in the hospital and his teammate - unable to walk at that time - told him: ''Angie and I have been worried about you.''

Flanked by wife Angela and their four children, along with several of his former teammates, Byrd fought back tears while he was given a standing ovation by the fans at MetLife Stadium.

''I learned to be a man in Oklahoma,'' Byrd said, ''and I grew to be a man in New York.''

Every year, a Jets player is selected by his teammates to receive the Dennis Byrd Most Inspirational Player award.

''I really have loved coaching football and working with kids, talking about the lessons I've learned as an athlete and the journey as someone with a disability,'' Byrd said in 2012. ''Football has always been, for me, a cornerpost of strength and a way to accomplish things in life, whether it's on the field or just in maintaining a quality of life. All those lessons - dedication, perseverance, teamwork - they all dovetail nicely into living a blessed life.''

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Panthers, Saints desperate as they renew divisional rivalry
October 15, 2016

NEW ORLEANS (AP) This is what it has come to for the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers.

Either they beat the Saints in the Superdome on Sunday, or they fall into last place in the NFC South by themselves with 10 games to go.

''You don't expect to start this way,'' Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly said. ''It's a situation we are in now and it's all about how you're going to respond from it.''

On its face, the matchup of the Saints (1-3) and Panthers (1-4) has the look of a game between two struggling teams who very well might be going nowhere this season.

On the other hand, it could make for a desperate, high-stakes affair, given both teams are trying to salvage their season and believe it is still early enough to do so.

''We're not looking at them as a 1-4 team. We're looking at them as the returning NFC champions. We know that and just like when I was on a Super Bowl team, the next year, you get the best of every team,'' said Saints fullback John Kuhn, who played in the Super Bowl with Green Bay.

''This is two really good football teams going at each other. Throw the records out. Anybody watching this game is not going to be unsatisfied.

''We've only played a quarter of the season,'' Kuhn added. ''You've seen it in years past, especially with this division - anything can happen. We've got a lot of football left in front of us. So do they. It starts this week. We both understand what's going on.''

And it's not as if either team has been on the wrong end of many lopsided scores. Both teams have each lost games by three points and one point. Those games came down to the final possession and a play here or there could have tipped the balance.

The Panthers also played without star quarterback Cam Newton last Monday night against Tampa Bay and only lost on a last-second field goal.

Newton, who had been held out because of a concussion, will play this week as the Panthers try to keep pace with the ever-prolific offense designed by Saints coach Sean Payton and executed by QB Drew Brees.

''We know the team we're playing is a championship-level team that has lost some tough, close games,'' Payton said. ''We're going to have to be at our best.''

Here are some other story lines to watch as the Panthers invade the Superdome:

NEWTON'S NUMBERS: The Saints might be just what a struggling Newton needs. Newton, whose quarterback rating of 80.2 ranks 32nd in the league, often has played well against New Orleans, whose defense has been rated among the NFL's worst in three of the past four seasons and is again ranked 31st so far this season. Newton threw for 331 yards and five touchdowns last season at the Superdome and has 10 touchdowns and one interception in the past three games against New Orleans.

HOPEFUL HISTORY: The Saints can look at their own franchise history for examples of why they still might emerge as playoff contenders - if they can win this week. Under the current NFL playoff system, the Saints have twice made the playoffs after starting a season 1-3 - once in 1990 and once in 2000.

''We're trying to be an ascending team - a team that is trying to get better each and every week,'' Brees said. ''I feel like we have gotten better. We have learned and grown.''

WHERE'S THE RUSH?: Panthers starting defensive ends Kony Ealy and Charles Johnson have yet to register a sack this season through five games. Ealy said a major reason for that is opposing quarterbacks are getting the ball out quicker, giving the team's front four less time to get to the quarterback.

''Obviously quarterbacks are doing it for a reason, offensive coordinators are game-planning that way for a reason,'' Ealy said. ''They know what our front can do. It would be crazy for them to just be lax back there and know we are going to pressure with four or sometimes five guys. We see it as a sign of respect.''

GETTING DEFENSIVE: Although the Saints rank second-to-last in the NFL defensively, there have been signs of hope for the struggling unit. New Orleans ranks 13th in the NFL in red zone defense and tied for seventh in the league in limiting TDs on opposing offenses' goal-to-go scenarios. Also, New Orleans' much-maligned defense came up with a pair of fumble recoveries and an interception in the fourth quarter of their comeback win in their game at San Diego on Oct. 2. Now they're rested after a bye last week.

STEWART'S RETURN: The Panthers are hoping to get Jonathan Stewart back on the field after the team's starting running back missed the past three games with a hamstring injury. When healthy, Stewart is difficult to bring down and can be among the best running backs in the league. If Stewart can't go, the Panthers will turn to Cameron Artis-Payne, who ran for two TDs in a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.

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After big win over Denver, Falcons face next test in Seattle
October 15, 2016

Following the most impressive win of the early NFL season, the Atlanta Falcons aren't exactly being rewarded.

One week after going into Denver and handling the defending league champion Broncos 23-16, the Falcons stayed out west and headed to Seattle. Coming back with a road victory over the Seahawks (3-1 and coming off a bye) would stamp Atlanta (4-1) as a Super Bowl favorite.

Whoa! Whoa! Whoa!

Atlanta started 6-1 last season and finished 8-8. While this team looks more balanced, more polished and more dangerous than the 2015 version, it still has plenty to prove. On the scoreboard, and in the standings.

''I think that we are mentally tougher, a more resilient group for sure,'' Matt Ryan says.

''You learn from that. Obviously, we started fast last year and things didn't go our way in the second half of the season. I think what you learn is that the difference between wins and losses is a handful of plays and you've got to be on the right end of them. We've done a really good job of being opportunistic early in the season.''

No kidding. Ryan leads the NFL with a 121.6 passer rating, and Julio Jones has averaged a phenomenal 21.5 yards a catch. This is a matchup of the Falcons' No. 1-ranked offense against the Seahawks' top-ranked defense. Very juicy indeed.

''You get caught up in the peaks and the valleys just like Pete (Carroll) always says,'' star cornerback Richard Sherman notes, ''treat everything like a championship opportunity. You always treat it like you're playing the No. 1 offense. You start treating it like the No. 32 offense, and if the No. 32 offense, they (might) go put up 500 yards on you because they're still pros, they're still getting paid to do this. So we don't get caught up in any of that.''

But Sherman did acknowledge that facing Jones and Ryan would be ''fun.''

The action began Thursday night with San Diego's 21-13 home victory over Denver.

Philip Rivers threw for 178 yards and a touchdown, passing Hall of Famer Dan Fouts to become San Diego's career passing leader.

The victory may have saved embattled coach Mike McCoy's job. The Chargers (2-4) were coming off a mistake-filled loss at Oakland.

The Super Bowl champion Broncos (4-2) were coached by special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis after Gary Kubiak was ordered by doctors to sit out because of a migraine condition that mimics strokes.

Off this week are Minnesota, at 5-0 the NFL's only unbeaten team, and Tampa Bay (2-3).

Dallas (4-1) at Green Bay (3-2)

There remain enough doubters about the Cowboys that this is another prove-it game. The way Dak Prescott is throwing it (155 passes without a pick) and Ezekiel Elliott is running it (league-high 546 yards), Dallas is proving you can win behind rookies .

''There are certainly a lot of areas where we have to get better,'' coach Jason Garrett says, ''but we're doing a good job coming off the ball, getting into blocks and finding places for runners to run. The runners are running well.''

Still, the Packers hold opponents to 42.8 yards rushing per game. If the Cowboys, 4-11 at the Packers, come close to their 155.2 yards per game on the ground, it will be impressive. And possibly decisive.

San Francisco (1-4) at Buffalo (3-2)

With Colin Kaepernick now the starter, he's going to attract attention for more than his refusal to stand during the national anthem. It took a four-game slide with Blaine Gabbert showing little at quarterback for coach Chip Kelly to make the change.

''We need to move the football offensively and that's why we made the decision to do what we were doing,'' Kelly says. ''So, hopefully we can get a little more consistency on the offensive side of the ball and that's what I think we need.

''Critical things in third down I think have been the things that we've really tried to emphasize and work on as we get moving forward here. That's what we're hoping for and that's why we made the move.''

Buffalo is hoping to keep streaking after going 3-0 since elevating Anthony Lynn to offensive coordinator and firing Greg Roman.

Cincinnati 2-3) at New England (4-1)

Tom Brady's first regular-season game in Foxborough after serving his four-game ''Deflategate'' suspension. Listen for wild cheers of support - and some nasty chants about Roger Goodell - and look for Brady to fill the air with regulation footballs. Many of those are likely to land in the hands of Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and a new favorite, TE Martellus Bennett, who had three TD catches last week.

The Bengals were humiliated in Dallas, and they haven't won in New England in 30 years. Brady is 5-1 against them with 12 TDs and a 101.2 passer rating.

Kansas City (2-2) at Oakland (4-1)

One of the NFL's great rivalries resumes - this is game 115, KC leads 60-52-2 - with the Chiefs needing to maintain their dominance in the AFC West. They've won three straight vs. Oakland and six straight within the division. Alex Smith loves seeing the Raiders on the other side of the line of scrimmage: He's 7-1 with 18 TDs, three interceptions and a 106.1 passer rating in this matchup.

These are the new Raiders, though, formidable and, at last, a threat to make the playoffs, a place they last visited 14 years ago. They rank fourth in total offense, a necessity considering they are last in defense.

Philadelphia (3-1) at Washington (3-2)

Another long-term rivalry (Washington leads 84-73-5), and this one should say a lot about the NFC East race.

Philly stumbled at Detroit after losing its momentum from a 3-0 start by having an early bye. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has been terrific, but it's the Eagles' defensive performance that has been just as crucial. They haven't allowed a touchdown in the second half and just six points overall.

Washington dropped its first two games, but Kirk Cousins throwing to DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed has sparked the attack.

Pittsburgh (4-1) at Miami (1-4)

For the first time, twins Maurkice (Steelers) and Mike Pouncey (Dolphins) are opponents. Their showings on the offensive line will be critical, especially for Miami, which has been awful with the ball, struggles to protect Ryan Tannehill, and is a minus-7 in turnover margin; only the Jets are worse.

Just what Ben Roethlisberger needs is another dangerous receiver.

Well, he's got one: Sammie Coates is averaging an NFL-best 22.1 yards per catch, with at least one reception of 40 yards or more in each game. Big Ben leads the league with 15 touchdown passes, the most through five games in Steelers history, and WR Antonio Brown is tops with 37 catches.

Baltimore (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3)

Unlike their AFC North brethren, the Ravens have stalled on offense, leading to the firing this week of coordinator Marc Trestman.

Barring falling into an early hole, look for plenty of balance with the ball from Baltimore, with Terrance West toting the ball.

Odell Beckham Jr. finally got into the end zone last week at Green Bay, but that didn't do much for New York, which has dropped three in a row.

Even more worrisome: New York is minus-7 in turnover differential, with only three takeaways. All that money spent on the defense has yielded minimal returns thus far.

Los Angeles (3-2) at Detroit (2-3)

The Lions might have benefited from a missed call by officials in their comeback win against the Eagles. They expect DE Ezekiel Ansah (ankle) back after missing three-plus games, and cornerback Darius Slay comes off a strong performance in which he had a clinching interception.

To get to .500, Detroit will need to figure out Todd Gurley. The 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year went for 140 yards on 16 carries and had two TDs in last year's win over the Lions in St. Louis. Gurley has yet to break out this season, though, with only a 2.7-yard average. But he has rushed for three scores.

Indianapolis (2-3) at Houston (3-2)

Given the other matchups this Sunday, it's a shame the flex schedule hasn't begun yet.

Still, this is for first place in a division, albeit the mediocre AFC South.

The Colts are 23-5 against Houston, and Andrew Luck has won 14 of his past 15 starts within the division. He might need a big game because Indy is not likely to shut down receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Jaelen Strong and rookie Will Fuller.

New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona (2-3), Monday night

The Jets' crucible of five 2015 playoff teams in six weeks ends here. It hasn't been pretty, and with Carson Palmer expected back from his concussion, the Cardinals will be a difficult opponent.

But Arizona also has lost both starting guards, Mike Iupati and Evan Mathis, and New York has a good defensive line.

Jets coach Todd Bowles is close with Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, having played for Arians at Temple (1982-85) and serving as his defensive coordinator with Arizona in 2013-14.

Jacksonville (1-3) at Chicago (1-4)

Back from London after their first win and then a bye, the Jaguars believe they could make some inroads in the AFC South. Getting by Chicago is a must.

But they are 4-21 on the road in coach Gus Bradley's four seasons, including 0-6 against NFC teams.

The Bears have gotten good enough play from backup QB Brian Hoyer - three straight 300-yard games, six TDs, no picks - that Jay Cutler might not get back his job once fully healthy. Helping Hoyer has been RB Jordan Howard, who's second among NFL rookies with 296 yards rushing.

Carolina (1-4) at New Orleans (1-3)

How the mighty have fallen. Carolina's chances of winning a fourth consecutive NFC South are fading after losing their first two division matchups. A third one could be devastating, and they go against the prolific Drew Brees with an underachieving secondary and defense on the whole.

But at least they will have 2015 league MVP Cam Newton back at quarterback after he missed the loss to Tampa Bay with a concussion.

As always, New Orleans' chances ride on Brees' arm. He seems more comfortable every week with his current group of targets: Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Coby Fleener and rookie Michael Thomas.

Cleveland (0-5) at Tennessee (2-3)

Down Nashville way, they're singing optimistic songs about the Titans in the AFC South. Don't laugh too hard: a win and a Colts victory creates a three-way tie at the top.

The Titans can run the ball, with DeMarco Murray second in the NFL with 461 yards rushing and 633 yards from scrimmage. Murray leads everyone with 33 first downs.

Cleveland is gutsy, but so banged-up. The Browns believe this is a good opportunity to get off the schneid, but they'll need to figure out how to close out a victory if they get in position.

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SuperContest Picks - Week 6
October 15, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5

Week 6

1) Kansas City PK (704)
2) Seattle -6.5 (450)
3) Green Bay -4.5 (448)
4) Houston -3 (424)
5) Philadelphia -2.5 (410)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 6 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Denver (+3) 145 San Diego (-3) 123
Cincinnati (+8.5) 312 New England (-8.5) 343
Baltimore (+3) 245 N.Y. Giants (-3) 355
Carolina (-3) 143 New Orleans (+3) 387
Pittsburgh (-7.5) 398 Miami (+7.5) 345
Jacksonville (+2.5) 348 Chicago (-2.5) 163
San Francisco (+7.5) 234 Buffalo (-7.5) 296
Los Angeles (+3.5) 384 Detroit (-3.5) 161
Cleveland (+7) 225 Tennessee (-7) 196
Philadelphia (-2.5) 410 Washington (+2.5) 365
Kansas City (PK) 704 Oakland (PK) 330
Atlanta (+6.5) 404 Seattle (-6.5) 450
Dallas (+4.5) 329 Green Bay (-4.5) 448
Indianapolis (+3) 179 Houston (-3) 424
N.Y. Jets (+7.5) 239 Arizona (-7.5) 130

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%

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Pick Six - Week 6
October 15, 2016

Week 5 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS

Overall Record: 14-16 SU, 12-18 ATS

Review: Following a 1-5 Week 4, things improved a little bit, but still an underachieving 2-4 mark with the Bills and Redskins the only winners.

Bengals at Patriots (-9, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati
Record: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Bengals were wiped out early at Dallas last Sunday in a 28-14 defeat as 2 ½-point road favorites. Cincinnati fell behind, 28-0 before scoring a pair of late touchdowns, as the two victories by the Bengals have come against the Jets and Dolphins, who are a combined 2-8. The offense has been disappointing in Cincinnati, as the Bengals have been held to 17 points or less in their three losses, while scoring just one touchdown against Miami. The Bengals are playing with major revenge after getting blasted at Gillette Stadium as 2 ½-point road favorites in 2014 by a 43-17 count.

New England
Record: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/2

The Patriots were blanked by the Bills in the final game of Tom Brady’s suspension in Week 4. New England rebounded in a huge way in Brady’s debut last Sunday at Cleveland as the three-time Super Bowl champion threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-13 rout as 10-point favorites. The Patriots’ defense has been terrific the last three weeks by allowing a total of 29 points and cashing three straight UNDERS. New England has won 26 of its past 28 home games with Brady under center since 2013, as the Patriots own an 18-8-2 ATS mark in this span.

Best Bet: New England -9

Ravens at Giants (-3 ½, 44 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Ravens jumped out to a 3-0 record before stumbling at home the last two weeks with losses to the Raiders and Redskins by a combined seven points. Baltimore changed things up from an offensive perspective by firing coordinator Marc Trestman and replacing him with Marty Mornhinweg as the Ravens have scored 19 points or fewer in three games. In last week’s 16-10 setback to Washington, the Ravens found the end zone less than five minutes into the game, but managed only three points in the final 55 minutes. Baltimore is listed as an underdog for the first time this season, as it posted a 5-3 ATS mark when receiving points in 2015.

New York
Record: 2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS, 4-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Giants squeezed past the Cowboys and Saints in their first two games, but New York hasn’t found the win column recently by dropping three in a row. Granted, New York had to face Minnesota and Green Bay on the road in primetime in the last two weeks, but the Giants put up a combined 26 points in those defeats. The Giants have lost three straight home games to AFC opponents since 2014, including setbacks as an underdog to the Patriots and Jets last season. New York has lost two of the past three meetings with Baltimore since getting routed by the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV in 2001.

Best Bet: Baltimore +3 ½

Eagles (-3, 44 ½) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST

Philadelphia
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

Rookie Carson Wentz suffered his first NFL loss following a 3-0 start in Philadelphia’s 24-23 defeat at Detroit last Sunday as 3 ½-point favorites. The Eagles erased a 21-7 deficit to take a 23-21 lead in the fourth quarter, but Detroit took control in the final two minutes with the go-ahead field goal. Wentz was intercepted for the first time this season on a desperation toss on Philadelphia’s final possession, as the Eagles play their first divisional opponent on Sunday. Last season, the Eagles were swept by the Redskins, including a 23-20 defeat in D.C. as three-point favorites last October.

Washington
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Redskins have rebounded from an 0-2 start to win three consecutive games, including road victories in this span over the Giants and Ravens. Washington has been outrushed in all five games this season, but put together its best defensive effort of 2016 by limiting Baltimore to 306 yards in a 16-10 triumph last Sunday. The Redskins have won seven of its last eight contests since last November when listed in the underdog role with the lone loss coming to Pittsburgh in Week 1 of this season.

Best Bet: Philadelphia -3

Chiefs (-1 ½, 46 ½) at Raiders – 4:05 PM EST

Kansas City
Record: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Chiefs are fresh off the bye week after getting pounded in Week 4 at Pittsburgh, 43-14 to drop to 0-2 away from Arrowhead Stadium. Each of the last two seasons, Kansas City has returned from the bye to face an AFC West rival on the road and the Chiefs came out victorious each time. In 2015, the Chiefs dominated the Broncos as 3 ½-point underdogs, 29-13, while picking off Denver five times in the rout. Kansas City has seen success recently against Oakland by winning five of the past six matchups, including three consecutive victories at the Coliseum.

Oakland
Record: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Raiders continue to roll atop the AFC West after picking up its third straight win last Sunday in a 34-31 triumph over the Chargers. Oakland failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites, but Derek Carr put up over 300 yards passing for the second time (319), while improving his touchdown to interception ratio to 11/2 on the season. The Raiders dropped to 1-2 ATS as a favorite, but with the money flipping towards the Chiefs, Oakland is now a slight under. In Jack Del Rio’s tenure as head coach, the Raiders have compiled a solid 9-4 ATS mark in the underdog role, but all four losses have come at home.

Best Bet: Oakland +1 ½

Falcons at Seahawks (-6 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Atlanta
Record: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

Past the undefeated Vikings, the Falcons are the hottest team in the NFC by winning four consecutive games since losing the opener to Tampa Bay. In the past four weeks, Atlanta has been listed as an underdog four times and has won each time, including three times away from the Georgia Dome. Last week, the Falcons dominated the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos, 23-16 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs as Atlanta built a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Since the start of last season, the Falcons have put together an incredible 9-2 SU/ATS record in the underdog role, including a 6-2 SU/ATS mark on the highway.

Seattle
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

The Seahawks are back from their bye week following back-to-back wins over the 49ers and Jets. Seattle’s three victories have come against teams that have combined for a 3-12 record, as the Seahawks own a 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS record at CenturyLink Field. The defense continues to excel in Seattle, allowing 18 points or less in all four games, but the Seahawks have hit the OVER in five of their previous eight home contests. Seattle has lost four of the past five meetings with Atlanta since 2007, as the Falcons are making their first trip to the Pacific Northwest since a 30-28 victory in 2011.

Best Bet: Seattle -6 ½

Cowboys at Packers (-4 ½, 47 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Dallas
Record: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

Since dropping a one-point decision to the Giants in the season opener, the Cowboys have roared back to pull off four straight wins under rookie quarterback Dak Prescott. The fourth-round pick from Mississippi State has not thrown an interception in five games, while completing 69% of his passes in place of the injured Tony Romo. The Cowboys dominated the Bengals as a short home underdog last week, 28-14, led by another rookie, Ezekiel Elliott. The former Ohio State standout rushed for over 100 yards for the third consecutive game (134), while finding the end zone twice. The UNDER has hit in eight of the past 10 road games for Dallas since the start of last season, including in a 28-7 defeat at Lambeau Field last December.

Green Bay
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The Packers are in the midst of four consecutive games at Lambeau Field, as Green Bay is coming off home victories over Detroit and New York. In last Sunday night’s 23-16 win over the Giants, the Packers’ defense held New York out of the end zone for the first 57 minutes, while limiting New York to 221 yards. Green Bay has won 16 of its past 19 home games since 2014, as the Packers have covered 11 times in this span. The Packers have owned the Cowboys recently by winning five straight meetings since 2009, including four victories in a row at Lambeau Field.

Best Bet: Green Bay -4 ½

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Total Talk - Week 6
October 15, 2016

The back-and-forth total results in the 2016 season continued last week as bettors saw the totals go 7-7 and a lot of those ‘over’ winners were helped with early points as seven games saw 27 or more points scored in the first-half. Through five weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge at 40-36-1.

Tendencies to Watch

With the first quarter of the season in the books, we’re starting to see a handful of clubs define themselves as either an ‘over’ or ‘under’ team. When it comes to betting sides, many handicappers and bettors put a major emphasis on the Yards per Play for each team. For totals, I prefer to use total yards per game for both the offensive and defensive units.

Looking below, we can see that the majority of the six best ‘over’ clubs this season have moved the ball offensively and they’ve also allowed a ton of yards. The one outlier is Jacksonville, who has solid defensive numbers but the offense has created short tracks for opponents with turnovers.

2016 TOTAL TENDENCIES - OVER
Team OFF YPG (Rank) DEF YPG (Rank) Total Record (O/U)
Atlanta 457.4 (1) 388.8 (26) 4-1
Indianapolis 358.6 (13) 410.6 (30) 4-1
Oakland 391.6 (4) 452.6 (32) 4-1
Washington 366.0 (10) 392.0 (27) 4-1
Jacksonville 320.8 (26) 304.5 (7) 3-1
New Orleans 386.0 (6) 422.8 (31) 3-1

The Patriots and Giants are the only teams that have seen the ‘under’ connect at an 80 percent (4-1) clip this season. With Tom Brady back at quarterback, New England’s going to see its share ‘over’ winners start to cash.

2016 TOTAL TENDENCIES - UNDER
Team OFF YPG (Rank) DEF YPG (Rank) Total Record (O/U)
New England 377.2 (7) 345.0 (13) 1-4
N.Y. Giants 350.0 (18) 358.2 (17) 1-4

I’ve included four teams below that have had mixed total results through the first month and I believe we’ll start to see the pendulum swing the other way for a couple of them. Pittsburgh’s combination of great offense and average defense usually translates into ‘over’ tickets but the Steelers have leaned ‘under’ so far due to high numbers and four games being decided by double digits.

Tennessee is 3-2 to the ‘over’ but that could easily be a 5-0 ‘under’ mark if the scoreboard didn’t count defensive and special team scores. It does, but be aware the that Titans defense is legit and the team has only allowed 38 points in the second-half this season (21 points D/ST).

2016 TOTAL TENDENCIES - TEAMS TO WATCH
Team OFF YPG (Rank) DEF YPG (Rank) Total Record (O/U)
Pittsburgh 386.8 (5) 379.0 (25) 2-3
Tennessee 358.0 (14) 320.6 (10) 3-2
Green Bay 321.8 (25) 317.8 (9) 2-2
Seattle 357.5 (15) 264.0 (1) 2-2
Off the Bye

Four teams will be playing with rest this week and below are recent total notes for each club after the bye week.

Jacksonville at Chicago: The Jaguars have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 their last four after the bye and the defense has allowed 26 PPG during this span.

New Orleans vs. Carolina: Last season, the Saints were drilled 24-6 at Houston after the bye and that result might be an anomaly. Prior to that outcome, New Orleans saw the ‘over’ go 8-1 in its previous nine with rest.

Kansas City at Oakland: Lots of folks aware of Andy Reid’s strong bye numbers (19-3 SU, 16-6 ATS. For total purposes, the Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 with two pushes in its last six games off the bye.

Seattle vs. Atlanta: The Seahawks have seen their totals go 3-3 after the bye since Pete Carroll took over and surprisingly their straight up record is 3-3 as well.

Divisional Battles

For the second straight week, the highest total on the board takes place in a divisional matchup.

Carolina at New Orleans: The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and if the high number (53 ½) has you a tad hesitant, make a note that the ‘over’ has gone 6-0 when these teams have seen a total in the fifties. As mentioned above, New Orleans is your perfect ‘over’ team due to a great offense and poor offense. You might be surprised to know that Carolina’s offense is ranked third in total yards (392 YPG) but it’s failed to register as much on the scoreboard (24.6 PPG).

Kansas City at Oakland: This AFC West matchup is receiving plenty of attention this week at the betting counter and the Andy Reid “bye trend” is being fully supported. As far as the total (46 ½) goes, these teams haven’t seen a number this high since 2005 when the Chiefs were a high-flying attack with Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Trent Green running the show. This Kansas City team is far removed from that juggernaut but they could improve this week against an Oakland defense (452.6 YPG) that is ranked last in yards and 25th in points (27.4). The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five encounters between the pair and the Chiefs have put up some crooked numbers during this span, averaging 32.8 PPG.

Indianapolis at Houston: (See Below)

Non-Conference Action

The AFC-NFC matchups saw their totals go 3-3 last week and the ‘over’ is now 14-10 (58%) this season.

Baltimore at N.Y. Giants: If you took away the names of the QBs (Flacco, Manning) involved in this game and purely looked at this year’s numbers, then I believe we would be looking at a much lower total than 44 ½ posted. The Ravens (18.8 PPG) and Giants (17.8 PPG) have been a mess offensively this season while their defensive units have both improved. Until either of the QBs can find their past form, I’d be hesitant to go high here.

Jacksonville at Chicago: This game opened 47 and has been knocked down to 45 ½ as of Saturday morning. Neither the Jaguars (21 PPG) or Bears (17 PPG) have shown the ability to put up points consistently and both defensive units are underrated.

San Francisco at Buffalo: In my third installment of “Total Talk” this season, I touched on an angle of West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast. The ‘over’ has now gone 5-0 in those games and this situation fits. I’m not high on Buffalo’s offense at all, but San Francisco has surrendered 140 points in its last four games since opening the season with a shutout.

N.Y. Jets at Arizona: (See Below)

Under the Lights

We’ve watched 17 primetime games this season and the ‘under’ has gone 9-7-1, which includes the result from the past Thursday between Denver and San Diego.

Indianapolis at Houston: The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this series but make a note that the last three encounters at NRG Stadium have all gone ‘over’ the number. The Texans defense has been incredible at home this season (15.3 PPG) but Colts QB Andrew Luck has gone 5-1 versus Houston in his career while tossing 14 TDs to 3 INTs. Houston’s offense isn’t a juggernaut and it’s hard to imagine the unit being stopped by a Colts defense (29.6 PPG, 410 YPG) that hasn’t been able to slow anybody down.

N.Y. Jets at Arizona: This total seems a tad high (47) considering the offensive form for both clubs yet the oddsmakers respect Arizona’s offense at home, especially with QB Carson Palmer back under center. The question ‘over’ bettors need to ask is if they believe Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick can generate any offense. The Jets are averaging 11 PPG the last three weeks and Arizona’s defense (15.7 PPG) has been much better at home. These teams haven’t met since 2012 when the Jets beat the Cardinals 7-6 at home.

Fearless Predictions

We had some close calls last week but fortunately on the right side with three of the wagers and that kept us positive ($190). Five weeks in the books and the bankroll ($450) is nearing five digits of profit. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Over 48 ½ Pittsburgh-Miami

Best Under: Under 43 ½ Cleveland-Tennessee

Best Team Total: Over 28 Carolina

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 39 ½ Pittsburgh-Miami
Over 35 San Francisco-Buffalo
Under 56 ½ Dallas-Green Bay

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
October 15, 2016


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Eagles are 10-0 ATS since Sep 26, 2010 on the road after a road game where they allowed at least 24 points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-12-2 ATS since Dec 04, 2011 at home coming off a game where they scored more than expected.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Colts are 0-7 OU since Dec 07, 2014 when Andrew Luck: threw for at least two touchdowns in a win last game.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Eagles are 12-0 OU since Sep 29, 2013 coming off a loss where they allowed more points than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 0-10-1 OU since Dec 19, 2010 coming off a road\ game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Giants are 0-10 ATS at home when they are off a game as a dog and the line is within three of pick when facing a non-divisional opponent that has more wins on the season.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Colts at Texans
October 14, 2016


The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans have both been major disappointments this season and we'll get to see what 2016 resume gets muddied more during Sunday Night Football where Houston is a three-point home favorite. Quarterback Andrew Luck has won his last six starts against the Texans, but he's been in a major funk the last two season regarding execution and also leads the NFL by being sacked 20 times this year while starting 2-3.

The Texans lead the AFC South a 3-2 record, but there are still grumblings about the performance of the team. There were high expectations placed on the Texans. Fans were talking Super Bowl, which is being played in Houston this season. New QB Brock Osweiler, who signed for $72 million in the off-season, has taken much of the ire from fans. He's won all three home games, but looked bad in road loses at New England and Minnesota -- who hasn't. He's completed 57 percent of his passes for six TDs and 7 interceptions.

Despite the Texans struggles offensively with just 310 yards per game, their defense has still been very good holding opponents to 300 YPG, despite superstar J.J. Watt being out for the year. The Colts defense gives up 29.6 points per game and 410 YPG.

WHAT THE LUCK IS GOING ON?

Before last season, the Colts were expected to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and Andrew Luck was supposed to take a step forward in becoming an elite NFL QB on the A-list. But they sputtered out of the gate to a 1-5 start and then he was injured (kidney & abdominal) in a home win against Denver and it cut his season short. This season, they've improved to a 2-3 mark, but trailed in the fourth quarter of both wins, which were each at Indy. Their losses have been to Detroit (39-35), at Denver (34-20) and against the Jaguars (30-27) in London.

LINE MOVEMENT

CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas opened Houston -3.5 in its Sunday night openers and by Monday morning they were at - (-120). By Thursday, the line was down to 3-flat were its been since Friday evening. The total has been the real mover with sharp action involved.

"Our top two total plays have been the Jaguars-Bears 'under' (47) and the Colts-Texans 'over' (46.5); we're at 48 on that game now," CG risk management VP Jason Simbal said.

The money-line has been as high as Houston -165, but dog money at +145 has pushed it down to -150/+130.

When CG books opened lines on every game back in April, the Texans were -1.5 for this one.

PUBLIC OPINION

The best way to see what the public is feeling for a game is to understand what they're collectively jumping on with parlay wagers. William Hill's 108 sports books take one of the highest volume of parlay action in Nevada. On all wagers involving the Indy/Houston point-spread, the Texans have been wagered in 58 percent of all tickets printed and have 67 percent of all cash taken in.

PROPER NUMBER

In my personal ratings, I have the Texans a half-point better than the Colts on a neutral field and I'll give the Texans 3-points for a home field advantage on the basis of winning and covering all three home games thus far and the Colts failing to cover the number in four of their last five road games. Let's call the proper number Houston -3.5.

RECENT HISTORY

The Texans 16-10 win (Brandon Weeden at QB) at Indianapolis (Matt Hasselbeck at QB) in December ended a six-game win streak for the Colts. The Colts went 5-0-1 ATS in those games. Nine of the past 11 meetings in Houston have gone 'over' the total.

TRENDS

-- Indy is 17-6-1 ATS in its last 24 vs AFC South teams.
-- Indy is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.

-- Houston 6-0 ATS in its last six against AFC South teams.
-- Houston has gone Over total in its last nine games played in October.

SNF PROPS FROM WESTGATE (20 cent splits)

-- First score of game will be: TD -165
-- Total passing yards by Andrew Luck: 279.5
-- Total recieving yards by T.Y. Hilton: 77.9
-- Total completions by Brock Osweiler: 21.5
-- Will DeAndre Hopkins score a TD: YES -120
-- Total sacks by both teams: 5

EARLY WEEK 7 SPREADS

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts early numbers for the next week every Tuesday and opened the Colts at Tennessee as a pick 'em. Let's give Tennessee a 2.5-point home edge, which is what the rating difference is between the two squads. Now let's take a look at recent spreads within the division. Houston was -4 at home (they get 3-points) against the Titans two weeks ago, the same week the Jaguars were getting +1 from the Colts on a neutral field. The Texans are +6.5 at Denver (MNF) next week -- the Colts were +6 there in Week 2.

ODDS TO WIN DIVISION

The Colts and Texans opened in May at the Westgate as 3/2 co-favorites (Bet $100 to win $150) to win the AFC South, but now Houston is alone at the top at 10/11 odds (Bet $100 to win $91). Indianapolis is now at 9/4 odds. The Titans have some respect at 5/1 and the Jaguars don't at 7/1. Jacksonville was considered 'the team to watch' as a riser from its awful class, and were given 7/2 odds to win at the beginning of the season.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

The Colts were 20/1 when odds were first posted in February, but you can get 60/1 now at the Westgate. The Texans were 40/1, before signing Osweiler, and they're still at 40/1.

Here's how they stack up against the top AFC teams:
Patriots (7/2)
Steelers (6/1)
Broncos (12/1)
Raiders (16/1 - Lots of risk)
Chiefs (30/1)
Ravens (50/1)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 16


Terrible weather in Seattle today. 51% chance of rain showers and 20 mph winds. Seahawks -6.5 vs Falcons. Total is at 45 points.


67% chance of rain for Orchard Park with winds nearing 20 mph. Buffalo -8 vs 49ers with total at 44.5 points.


54% chance of rain in Oakland today. Raiders opened -2 and money on Chiefs pushed line to Raiders +1.5. Total at 46 points.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Underdogs: Week 6 pointspread picks and predictions

After a Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay, the Falcons have rattled off four consecutive wins, going 4-0 against the spread in the process.

Welcome to a new experience for me. I am currently sitting in the San Diego International Airport, getting ready to return home from a mini vacation where I watched the Chargers get the job done as 3-point home pups.

So while I'm technically still on vacation, I can't let you guys miss out on a week of underdog picks. I'll get the job done, just like the Chargers did this week. Even if it is a bit an abbreviated version, starting with another team hoping to get the job done this week: the Atlanta Falcons.

After a Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay, the Falcons have rattled off four consecutive wins, going 4-0 against the spread in the process. The Falcons were dogs in all four of those games and, to top it all off, they beat up on last year’s two Super Bowl teams in consecutive weeks.

Atlanta faces another tough task this week going on the road to take on Seattle. It’s a matchup that pits the NFL’s top ranked offense against the No. 1 stop unit. If the Falcons can get the job done this week, they could finally be considered “for real”.

Pick: Falcons +7


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+3)

The Saints got the job done in Week 4 and I like them to do the same in Week 6. New Orleans was down 13 on the road in San Diego with less than 10 minutes to go and managed to pull off a furious comeback, topping the Chargers 35-34 as 3.5-point dogs.

While Carolina gets Cam Newton back this week, the Panthers have looked a mess this season - even with the MVP under center. The Panthers have dropped three straight and are 1-4 SU/ATS this season after going 15-1 SU last season.

Additionally, I know the Saints aren't as intimidating at home as they used to be, but I love getting the home chalk in this spot, especially against a division rival. Oh yeah, the Panthers are also 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.

Pick: Saints +3


San Francisco 49ers (+8) at Buffalo Bills

This is more of a gut reaction than anything else. The numbers say go with the Bills, who are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, while the Niners haven't covered since Week 1. But I like the narrative for San Fran and their old starter/new starter in this spot.

Colin Keapernick returns under center for the Niners and will look to fight back to keep his starting role. If nothing else, Kaeprnick will want to show other teams he still has what it takes to make it as a starter in the NFL.

I think this is too many points for a Buffalo team that, while it has looked better the last few weeks, hasn't been favored by more than a field goal.

Pick: 49ers +8

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season record: 9-6 ATS (60%)

[StarDust Bum]

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 52-70-4 42.62% -12500

O/U Picks 50-78-4 39.06% -17900

Triple Plays:..... 2 - 5 - 1


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 16

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CAR at NO 01:00 PM

NO +2.5

LA at DET 01:00 PM

DET -2.5

O 44.0

CLE at TEN 01:00 PM

TEN -7.5

PIT at MIA 01:00 PM

MIA +7.5

U 49.5 *****

JAC at CHI 01:00 PM

JAC +2.5

O 46.0 *****

PHI at WAS 01:00 PM

WAS +3.0 *****

U 45.0 *****

CIN at NE 01:00 PM

CIN +7.5 NFL UPSET OF THE DAY

BAL at NYG 01:00 PM

BAL +3.5

SF at BUF 01:00 PM

SF +7.5

O 44.0 *****

KC at OAK 04:05 PM

OAK +2.0 *****

O 46.0

DAL at GB 04:25 PM

DAL +6.0

ATL at SEA 04:25 PM

ATL +7.0

U 45.5

[StarDust Bum]

The Latest: Forsett to see plenty of action for Lions
October 16, 2016

The Latest on Week Six of the NFL season (all times EDT):

12:25 p.m.

Fantasy football owners may want to add Justin Forsett if they're desperate for a running back.

Less than a week after signing, Forsett will likely get a chance to play a lot for the Lions Sunday at home against the Los Angeles Rams.

The Lions previously ruled Theo Riddick out with an ankle injury. Detroit also listed rookie Dwayne Washington among its inactives Sunday because of an ankle injury, leaving just Zach Zenner and Forsett at running back. Ameer Abdullah is on injured reserve with a foot injury.

Forsett signed with the Lions on Tuesday after asking for and getting his release from the Baltimore Ravens earlier this month. The 30-year-old Forsett had just 31 carries for 98 yards over three games as a starter this season with the Ravens before he plummeted on their depth chart. He ran for 1,266 yards in 2014 and 641 last year in 10 starts before breaking his arm.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in this week’s Westgate Super Contest:

1) Chiefs (even) 704- W

2) Seahawks (-6.5) 450- L

3) Packers (-4.5) 448- L

4) Texans (-3) 424- T

5) Eagles (-2.5) 410- L

6) Falcons +6.5 (404)– W

Season record: 11-24-1


Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Patriots 35, Bengals 17— New England averaged 9.6, 9.4 yds/pass attempt in Brady’s first two games back; only 10 their 61 plays in this game came on 3rd down. Cincinnati has lost four of its last five games, allowed 8 TDs on foes’ last 16 drives.

Titans 28, Browns 26— Bad beat if you laid 7.5 with Tennessee; Browns scored 13 points in last 2:07 to cover spread, as they fall to 0-6 SU (3-3 vs spread). Titans averaged 10.4 yards/pass attempt, best in league so far this week. Browns went 3/out seven times, scored the other five times (three TD, two FG) they had the ball.

Giants 27, Ravens 23— All six Raven games were decided by 6 or less points. Baltimore scored with 2:04 left to take lead, but neglected to cover Beckham (DB fell down) on a 4th-and-1 a few minutes later and he went 66 yards for GW TD. Beckham caught eight balls for 222 yards and two TDs.

Lions 31, Rams 28— All six Detroit games were decided by 7 or less points; their three home games were decided by a total of five points.

Bills 45, 49ers 16— When Buffalo fired their OC after Week 2, they said they wanted to run the ball more; Bills won their fourth straight game here, running ball 44 times for 312 yards- they converted 8-13 on 3rd down, have outscored last three opponents 45-9 in second half.

Saints 41, Panthers 38— New Orleans led 21-0 with 4:00 left in first half, but Carolina tied game with 2:58 left in game, before Saints hit 52-yard FG with 0:11 left for the win. Saints won their last two games, despite allowing 72 points in those games- they’ve allowed 34+ points in four of five games. Defending NFC champs are 1-5.

Redskins 27, Eagles 20— Philly scored two TDs, one on the NFL’s first TD on a kick return this year, then the defense scored one, but the Eagle offense ran 45 plays for 239 yards; they had 114 yards in penalties, no TDs, as Washington had 67-45 edge in plays run. Yardage here was 493-239. Redskins, like Buffalo, have now won four in a row after an 0-2 start.

Dolphins 30, Steelers 15— Miami was +2 in turnovers, had 14-yard edge in field position and beat Pittsburgh for just second time in last seven meetings, first time at home since 1998. Yardage was 474-297 Miami; after the game, Steelers said Roethlisberger will have an MRI on his knee, which would make Landry Jones the starter next week.

Jaguars 17, Bears 16— Chicago was in red zone four times, but scored only one TD; they led 13-0 after three quarters, but left door open for Jaguars, who hit a 51-yard TD pass with 2:49 left for a stunning comeback win. Bears were +2 in turnovers but had 10 penalties for 87 yards.

Chiefs 26, Raiders 10— Andy Reid is now 16-2 SU off a bye week, 12-4 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games; his Chiefs ran ball for 183 yards on a rainy day in Oakland. KC has now won six of last seven games against its arch-rival, winning four of last six visits to Oakland.

Cowboys 30, Packers 16— Its none of my business, but Dak Prescott has to stay the starting QB in Dallas, as long as they keep playing like this- they waxed the Packers on the day when Brett Favre got his Hall of Fame ring. Cowboys won/covered five games in a row with a rookie QB drafted in the fourth round. Highly unlikely story.

Seahawks 27, Falcons 26— Refs swallowed their whistle on Falcons’ last gasp pass to Julio Jones— Sherman grabbed his arm, no flag was thrown. Seattle led 17-3 at the half, but Atlanta stormed back and had ball around midfield up 24-23 with 4:00 left, before Ryan threw a pick that turned game in Seahawks’ favor. Falcons gained 269 yards in this game, just in the third quarter. These teams could meet again in January.

Texans 26, Colts 23 OT– Indy led 23-9 with under 4:00 left, then Texans came alive and Osweiler gets a big win, keeping Houston alone in first in AFC South. Next week the Texans head to Denver, Osweiler’s homecoming after he bolted the Broncos last winter. Bad loss for Indy, just a game you cannot lose, being up 14 points in last 4:00.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 6
October 16, 2016

SCOREBOARD


Monday, Oct. 17

New York Jets at Arizona, 8:30 p.m. EDT. The Monday night matchup features a showdown between Jets coach Todd Bowles and Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, whose friendship spans 30 years to when Arians was the coach at Temple and Bowles was one of his defensive backs. The struggling Jets (1-4) have lost three in a row, while the Cardinals (3-2) get quarterback Carson Palmer back from a concussion.

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STARS

Passing

- Drew Brees, Saints, passed for 465 yards and four touchdowns in New Orleans' 41-38 victory over Carolina, breaking a tie with Peyton Manning for the most 400-yard games in the regular season with his 15th.

- Eli Manning, Giants, passed for 403 yards and three touchdowns, including the winning 66-yard score by Odell Beckham Jr. with 1:24 left to play, in New York's 27-23 victory over Baltimore.

- Tom Brady, Patriots, threw three touchdown passes and went over 5,000 completions for his career while playing his first game in Foxborough since the end of his ''Deflategate'' suspension, leading New England past Cincinnati 35-17.

- Rookie Cody Kessler, Browns, threw for a career-high 336 yards and also had two TD passes, both to Terrelle Pryor in Cleveland's 28-26 loss at Tennessee.

- Matthew Stafford, Lions, was 23 of 31 for 270 yards with a season-high four touchdowns in Detroit's 31-28 win over Los Angeles.

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Rushing

- Jay Ajayi, Dolphins, rushed for a career-high 204 yards and two scores on 25 carries in Miami's 30-15 win over Pittsburgh.

- LeSean McCoy, Bills, had 140 yards rushing and matched a career high by scoring three times in Buffalo's 45-16 victory over San Francisco.

- Rookie Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, rushed for 157 yards on 28 carries in Dallas' 30-16 win at Green Bay.

- Matt Jones, Redskins, ran for 135 yards, including a victory-sealing 57-yard run on a third-down play with just under 90 seconds remaining, and a touchdown in Washington's 27-20 win over Philadelphia.

- Spencer Ware, Chiefs, ran for a career-high 131 yards and a touchdown in Kansas City's 26-10 win over Oakland.

- Terrance West, Ravens, had two touchdown runs and finished with 87 yards on 23 carries in Baltimore's 27-23 loss to the New York Giants.

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Receiving

- Odell Beckham Jr., Giants, caught eight passes for a career-best 222 yards and two touchdowns, including turning a short fourth-and-1 pass into a winning 66-yard catch-and-run with 1:24 to play in New York's 27-23 victory over Baltimore.

- Brandin Cooks, Saints, had an 87-yard touchdown catch to highlight a career-high 173-yard outing on seven catches in New Orleans' 41-38 win over Carolina.

- Golden Tate, Lions, had eight receptions for a career-high 165 yards and a touchdown to help Detroit edge Los Angeles 31-28.

- Rob Gronkowski, Patriots, had seven receptions for a career-high 162 yards and a touchdown in New England's 35-17 win over Cincinnati.

- Kenny Britt, Rams, caught seven passes for 136 yards and two touchdowns in Los Angeles' 31-28 loss at Detroit.

- Cameron Meredith, Bears, caught 11 passes for 113 yards in Chicago's 17-16 loss to Jacksonville.

- Amari Cooper, Raiders, had 10 receptions for 129 yards in Oakland's 26-10 win over Kansas City.

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Special Teams

- Wil Lutz, Saints, kicked a 52-yard field goal with 11 seconds left to lift New Orleans over Carolina 41-38.

- Matt Prater, Lions, made a tie-breaking, 34-yard field goal with 1:29 remaining, giving Detroit a 31-28 win over Los Angeles.

- Wendell Smallwood, Eagles, returned a kickoff 86 yards for a touchdown in Philadelphia's 27-20 loss at Washington.

- Steven Hauschka, Seahawks, kicked a 44-yard field goal with 1:57 remaining to cap the 20th career fourth quarter or overtime comeback for Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, and the Seahawks pulled out a 26-24 win over Atlanta.

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Defense

- Malcolm Jenkins, Eagles, returned an interception 64 yards for a touchdown in Philadelphia's 27-20 loss at Washington.

- Rafael Bush, Lions, had a victory-sealing interception two plays after Matt Prater made a tie-breaking, 34-yard field goal with 1:29 left in Detroit's 31-28 win over Los Angeles.

- Dont'a Hightower, Patriots, got his second safety in two weeks, dragging down Andy Dalton in the end zone in the third quarter of New England's 35-17 win over Cincinnati.

- DeForest Buckner, 49ers, had two sacks and a fumble recovery in San Francisco's 45-16 loss at Buffalo.

- Ryan Kerrigan, Redskins, had two sacks in Washington's 27-20 win over Philadelphia.

- Willie Young, Bears, sacked Blake Bortles twice in Chicago's 17-16 loss to Jacksonville.

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STREAKS & STATS

Dallas' Dak Prescott threw the first interception of his career against Green Bay, ending his NFL-record streak for the start of a career at 176 pass attempts. He broke the mark of 162 previously held by New England's Tom Brady. ... Cincinnati has lost in its past six trips to New England, including a 35-17 defeat Sunday, and hasn't won in Foxborough since 1986. ... Chicago fell to 2-9 at home in two seasons under coach John Fox with a 17-16 loss to Jacksonville. ... Case Keenum completed a Rams-record 19 straight passes, and finished 27 of 32 for 321 yards with three touchdowns - and an interception in Los Angeles' 31-28 loss at Detroit. ... San Francisco allowed 312 yards rushing - Buffalo's best outing since 1992 - including 140 by LeSean McCoy in the 49ers' 45-16 loss. ... Bills LB Lorenzo Alexander extended his sacks streak to six games, matching the team's longest since Aaron Schobel did it during the 2006 season. The 10-year journeyman has eight sacks this season. ... Tennessee's 28-26 win over Cleveland was its second straight victory, the first time the Titans have won consecutive games since the end of the 2013 season.

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MILESTONES

With a 465-yard performance in a 41-38 victory over Carolina, New Orleans' Drew Brees broke a tie with Peyton Manning with his 15th 400-yard passing game, the most in the regular season. Brees, who has 50,289 yards in 11 seasons with New Orleans, also became the sixth player to pass for 50,000 with one team, and extended his NFL-record streak of consecutive home games with a touchdown pass to 57. ... With 5,010 career completions, New England's Tom Brady became the fourth player in NFL history to reach 5,000, joining Brett Favre (6,300), Manning (6,125) and Brees (5,515). ... Jay Ajayi ran for 204 yards and two touchdowns, the final one coming on a 62-yard run on his last carry in Miami's 30-15 victory over Pittsburgh. Ajayi joined Ricky Williams as the only Dolphins to rush for at least 200 yards and two scores in a game. He also became the Dolphins' first 200-yard rusher since Reggie Bush in 2011. ... The Giants' 27-23 victory over Baltimore was the 700th win in franchise history.

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STARTS

With a 35-17 loss at New England, Cincinnati dropped to 2-4 for the first time since 2010, when it finished 4-12 - its worst season under coach Marvin Lewis. ... After opening the season 0-2, Washington has its best record through six games since 2008 at 4-2 after a 27-20 win over Philadelphia. ... Cleveland (0-6) is mired in its worst start since 1999, when the Browns lost their first seven as an expansion franchise. ... Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 157 yards in a 30-16 win at Green Bay, giving him 703 yards rushing - second most in a player's first six career games, behind only Eric Dickerson (787). Elliott also became the only rookie to rush for at least 130 yards in four consecutive games.

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KAP'S BACK

Colin Kaepernick started for San Francisco for the first time this season, but the 49ers lost their fifth straight game, falling to Buffalo 45-16. Buffalo fans greeted Kaepernick roughly for his leadership among athletes protesting during the national anthem. They booed him loudly, sold anti-Kaepernick T-shirts and roughed up a dummy wearing his jersey. Kaepernick finished 13 of 29 for 187 yards, including a 53-yard touchdown pass to Torrey Smith.

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PRESCOTT PICKED OFF

Dallas' Dak Prescott threw the first interception of his career after he was picked off on third-and-8 from the Cowboys 6, throwing out of his end zone with 20 seconds left in third quarter in a 30-16 win at Green Bay. Morgan Burnett had the diving interception. Prescott's NFL record streak for a quarterback at the start of his career without an interception ended at 176 attempts. He broke the mark of 162 previously held by New England's Tom Brady earlier in the game.

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SHUT DOWN

Ben Roethlisberger missed one series because of a left knee injury and was held to 189 yards passing in Pittsburgh's 30-15 loss at Miami. He finished 19 for 34 with two interceptions. He hobbled to the locker room late in the second quarter, when he hyperextended his knee scrambling on a play that resulted in an interception by Reshad Jones. After the game, Roethlisberger had ice on both knees and a bruise in the middle of his back. An MRI on his knee was planned. Antonio Brown, the NFL's leading receiver, was held to four receptions for 39 yards. Teammate Sammie Coates, playing with a hand injury, didn't have a catch.

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FLAG FOOTBALL

Philadelphia committed 13 penalties for 114 yards in a 27-20 loss at Washington, a week after the Eagles were called for 14 penalties for 111 yards in a loss to Detroit. ... New Orleans was flagged for pass interference three times at or near the goal line, and Carolina cashed in all three times with touchdowns. In all, New Orleans had 10 penalties for 126 yards, but still won 41-38.

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IT'S BENN A LONG TIME

Jacksonville's Arrelious Benn caught a slant pass, slipped and then got up and ran for a 51-yard touchdown in the closing minutes of the Jaguars' 17-16 victory over the Chicago Bears on Sunday - his first score since he had three TDs for Tampa Bay during the 2011 season. Benn spent the past three seasons on injured reserve with various injuries.

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KICK AND A PICK

Matt Prater made a tie-breaking, 34-yard field goal with 1:29 left and Rafael Bush followed with a victory-sealing interception two plays later, giving Detroit a 31-28 win over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The Lions (3-3) have won two straight games with Prater making the winning kick and a defensive back following up with an interception on the ensuing possession. Last week, Prater's kick and Darius Slay's interception gave Detroit a win over previously unbeaten Philadelphia.

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REAL McCOY

LeSean McCoy's three-touchdown game in Buffalo's 45-16 win over San Francisco was the third of his career, and first since Philadelphia's 45-19 victory over the Rex Ryan-coached Jets in 2011. He became Buffalo's first player to score three times rushing since Willis McGahee had four TDs against Seattle in 2004.

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COOKIN' IN THE END ZONE

New Orleans' Brandin Cooks had an 87-yard touchdown catch in a 41-38 win over Carolina, making him the first player in NFL history with two touchdown catches of at least 85 yards in his team's first five games. Cooks had a 98-yard TD reception in Week 1.

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BACK IN ACTION

Carolina lost its fourth straight despite the return of quarterback Cam Newton, who missed last week's loss to Tampa Bay because of a concussion. Newton passed for 322 yards and two touchdowns in the Panthers' 41-38 loss at New Orleans. He also ran for a 2-yard score and threw a 2-point conversion to Devin Funchess that tied the game at 38 with 2:58 left, but was also intercepted by Sterling Moore in the back of the end zone, stalling a promising drive in the first half. Running back Jonathan Stewart returned after missing three games with a hamstring injury and rushed for 85 yards on 19 carries, including two short touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

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SIDELINED

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger limped through the locker room after a 30-15 loss at Miami with his left knee aching following an awkward step in the second quarter. Though he returned to finish 19 of 34 for 189 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, Roethlisberger planned to undergo an MRI. ... Baltimore's injury-riddled and beleaguered secondary was dealt another blow when veteran Jimmy Smith left Sunday's game against the New York Giants with a concussion. ... Cleveland defensive back Jordan Poyer went to the hospital with a lacerated kidney following a vicious blindside hit in the second quarter of the Browns' 28-26 loss in Tennessee. He was evaluated, then put on a cart that took him to the locker room before Poyer was transported to a hospital. He was evaluated at the hospital for a concussion and an abdomen injury, revealing the damage to his kidney.

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SPEAKING

''I'm taking credit for that one for all the chubby guys out there. He's got phenomenal hands. ... It's just a matter of looking it in, be patient and then cut the beast loose.'' - Kansas City coach Andy Reid on 346-pound defensive lineman Dontari Poe, who scored a 1-yard touchdown after lining up in the backfield before shifting out wide right and then taking a lateral from Alex Smith and pushing his way into the end zone.

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''We've gotten comfortable being uncomfortable. They feel like that's the norm.'' - Detroit coach Jim Caldwell after the Lions beat Los Angeles 31-28, marking the second straight game Matt Prater made a winning kick and a defensive back following up with an interception on the ensuing possession.

[StarDust Bum]

WLT PCT UNITS

10/16/2016 10-9-0 52.63% +50

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 59-76-4 43.70% -12300

O/U Picks 54-82-4 39.71% -18100

Triple Plays:..... 5 - 9 - 1