The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (1 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 3) - 10/6/2016, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (3 - 1) at MINNESOTA (3 - 0) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in dome games since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (1 - 3) at MIAMI (1 - 3) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-77 ATS (-33.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 4) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 175-134 ATS (+27.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (1 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no T

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (3 - 0) at DETROIT (1 - 3) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (1 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 3) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (3 - 1) at DENVER (4 - 0) - 10/9/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (2 - 2) at LA RAMS (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
BUFFALO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-215 ATS (-62.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-215 ATS (-62.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (1 - 3) at OAKLAND (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 91-64 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 35-74 ATS (-46.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (2 - 2) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (2 - 1) at GREEN BAY (2 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 101-74 ATS (+19.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 88-63 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (1 - 3) at CAROLINA (1 - 3) - 10/10/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 6

8:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona


Sunday, October 9

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DETROIT
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. PITTSBURGH
NY Jets are 8-15 SU in their last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Washington is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Washington
Baltimore is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. MINNESOTA
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Minnesota6-1-1 SU in its last 8 games
Minnesota10-3-1 SU in its last 14 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 16 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 16 games when playing Tennessee
Miami is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. CLEVELAND
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing New England
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. DENVER
Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Atlanta

4:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo

4:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing at home against San Diego

4:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. GREEN BAY
NY Giants are 3-7-1 SU in their last 11 games ,
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants


Monday, October 10

8:30 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Carolina's last 16 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5


Thursday's Game

Cardinals (1-3) @ 49ers (1-3)— QB Palmer is in concussion protocol, is doubtful for this game; in 6+ years in NFL, backup QB Stanton is 7-5 as a starter. Redbirds turned ball over 10 times (-8) in last two games with only three TDs; they lost 33-18 (-4) in only road game, at Buffalo. Cards are 8-4 as road favorites under Arians. 49ers allowed 35.7 pts/game in losing last three games, giving up 165.7 yds/game on ground, 443.7 TY/game. Kelly is 1-3 as an NFL home dog. Arizona beat 49ers 47-7/19-13 LY; they’re still just 4-10 in last 14 series games, 1-6 in last seven visits to Bay Area. Arizona is 15-3-1 vs spread under Arians in games with spread of 3 or less points. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in divisional games.

-------------------------

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Thurs – Oct. 6

Arizona at San Francisco, 8:25 PM ET
Arizona: 45-27 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
San Francisco: 9-1 UNDER as a home underdog

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 5 NFL lines are going to move

The defending Super Bowl champs are unbeaten and have already taken control in the AFC West at 4-0.

Spread to bet now

Atlanta at Denver (-6)

Would it surprise you to learn that the Broncos are one of just two 4-0 ATS teams in the NFL (Minnesota is the other one)? The defending Super Bowl champs are unbeaten and have already taken control in the AFC West at 4-0. Plus, Win No. 4 came after new QB Trevor Siemian was sent to the sidelines with a shoulder in the first half of Sunday’s win at Tampa Bay. Replacement Paxton Lynch became the latest unheralded QB to get the job done, finishing up with 170 yards passing and one TD – and, most importantly – zero turnovers. The A+ Broncos' defense did the rest, and Denver now begins a stretch of three games in the next 15 days (Falcons, Thursday game at San Diego, and home vs. Houston). This line has been moving up and down from 4.5 to 6, so if you like Atlanta and the points, best move before books make another adjustment.

Spread to wait on

Arizona at San Francisco (+3)

Can things get any worse for the Cardinals? They’re 1-3 and will be in San Francisco Thursday night on a short week after getting beaten by the Rams this past Sunday. And BTW, QB Carson Palmer is out as the team tries to determine the severity of a head injury suffered in the LA game. Coach Bruce Arians claims the Cards aren’t panicking, but this is as close to a must-win game as they come because Arizona has the likes of Seattle, Carolina, Minnesota and Atlanta on the schedule before the weather gets cool and tolerable in the desert. This line opened at SF +2.5 but moved to 3. It likely will move again, or books might make an adjustment on the vig before kickoff.

Total to watch

New England at Cleveland (46.5)

All eyes will be on Tom Brady as he returns from the four-game Deflategate suspension, and rightfully so. The Patriots will also probably take the choke chain off TE Rob Gronkowski, who has been targeted just three times in the three games he has played. NE will have its full offensive arsenal for the first time after dumbing down the playbook and trying to establish a running game to simplify things for third-string QB Jacoby Brissett. Sophisticated bettors might want to consider hitting the second-half under in this one because the Browns have scored a total of just 17 points combined in the second halves of games this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 5 lines that make you go hmmm...

Oakland opened -4 at home to San Diego, but Peter Korner believes this line will close around Raiders -6 come Sunday.

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 40)

A surprising Houston team heads to face a just as surprising Minnesota team, in what looks like one of the better games to watch in Week 5. What caught my eye was the weak opening line (Vikings -5.5) at a few of the sportsbooks taking the lead in this one. I had this nailed at Minnesota -7 after Monday night’s performance and think anyone below the key number is just giving a few plays away from the start.

The combination of a stalled Houston offense and the aggressive defensive output by Minnesota leads me to believe the home favorite can keep a steady distance on the scoreboard to validate the higher number.

Though I’m impressed with Houston’s record, I’m wary of the level of competition it’s faced so far. The Vikings are playing at a higher level against better opponents. The value here is taking the Vikings early in the week before this gets to a touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+2.5, 46)

Philadelphia is at Detroit and you know where that takes me. Detroit has been underachieving since Week 1. A dismal showing at Chicago doesn’t give me any sense that this team has the talent to take on an undefeated Philadelphia squad that comes in rested and with a head of steam.

We’ll have the fortunate advantage of knowing this line won’t be moved too far from the key three so finding that -2.5 early in the week will be to your advantage. I don’t care for the “due factor” so waiting for a Detroit team to suddenly turn it around is not on the agenda.

Betting the good teams against throwing our money at bad teams doesn’t make sense. So you would be wise to ride these two opposite waves and hope the consistent results of these teams continues.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-4, 50.5)

The Chargers been playing the types of games that can break a team’s spirit. After the past week’s collapse against the Saints, San Diego has now lost three games it possibly should have won. Conversely, the Raiders have been winning with solid play, a sense of cool and gaining momentum now that they stand at 3-1 on the season.

The line is surprisingly low at -4 and seems to me the value is with playing early in the week as the money is destined to fall on the winning home favorites. I see this closing at no less than -6 by game time. This looks like a high-scoring game, as the Chargers are equally capable of scoring as they are to give up big points to the Raiders. The higher the scoring is in a game, the less likely a low number will affect the outcome.

This is another contest in which bettors may prefer to ride the coattails of the winning team and not stand around waiting for the lesser one to turn things around. Hop on the Silver and Black early before this becomes a non-play.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 43.5)

Tennessee is at Miami in what looks like the dud game of the week. Nothing like a play on one of these teams to increase interest, with both sitting at 1-3 SU.

Miami’s damage has largely been on the road with its lone win against Cleveland at home. Tennessee beat who it had to (Detroit) but has lost to quality opponents whose combined records stands at 9-2 to date. I see nothing but red flags with Miami and sense the team is dragging after its poor play.

Conversely, Tennessee has nothing to be sorry about and has been quite competitive. The Titans may see this game as a chance to pick up a big win early in the season and bring their record to within string distance of playoff bound teams with plenty of schedule left.

That hook seems surprising to me and a take, if you like a team with the incentive to play this weekend. I had this game closer to -1 and certainly no higher than -2. It’s another game in which the money seems to be destined one way by game time. We don’t see this going up so, if you like Tennessee, grab the hook and enjoy a good chance of the straight up underdog win.

[StarDust Bum]

Cards QB Palmer likely 'out' Thursday
October 5, 2016

One of the true negatives of Thursday night games is seeing key players, often stars, unable to participate because of the short turnaround.

That looks like the case this week for the Arizona Cardinals, whose quarterback, Carson Palmer, has been in the NFL's concussion protocol.

And with the Cardinals at 1-3, just like their opponent, San Francisco, this is no time to be short-handed. Particularly at that position.

Cardinals coach Bruce Arians has been somewhat optimistic about Palmer's availability. He even checked with Palmer's wife for an evaluation.

''Well, you're not going to get the real truth from a football player,'' Arians says. ''He's always going to tell you he's ready and he's OK. I was counting on her to tell me what it was really like.''

Not that Shaelyn Palmer is a doctor. So it easily could be Drew Stanton behind center.

The 49ers have dropped three straight since an opening victory, but they will have their regular signal caller in Blaine Gabbert. Though Gabbert hardly has been a sensation for San Francisco.

''Short week or not, you can't skip any part of your normal preparation,'' Gabbert said. ''If anything, you have to do more, especially from the physical aspect to get your body feeling the way it should by Sunday, which happens to be Thursday this week. And then from a mental aspect ... it's just everything is sped up.''

The disappointing Cardinals (No. 20 Arizona, AP Pro32) are 4-point favorites over the host Niners (No. 31, AP Pro32).

CARDINALS, 24-16

KNOCKOUT LEAGUE TIP

The Bengals came through for us last week, and we will remain in the Buckeye state this time. No, we're not taking the Browns. Tom Brady and the PATRIOTS are an obvious choice.

No. 3 New England (minus 10) at No. 32 Cleveland

What's the over/under on how many TDs Brady throws - in the first half?

BEST BET: PATRIOTS, 48-13

No. 29 Tennessee (plus 4) at No. 26 Miami

Dolphins are well rested. That might be only thing they have going right now.

UPSET SPECIAL: TITANS, 22-20

No. 13 Houston (plus 4 1-2) at No. 2 Minnesota

Another chance for Texans to prove themselves against quality competition? Nope.

VIKINGS, 20-13

No. 21 New York Jets (plus 10) at No. 6 Pittsburgh

Right now, Steelers can manhandle anybody.

STEELERS, 30-17

No. 19 Washington (plus 5) at No. 10 Baltimore

Redskins have won two straight without being very impressive.

RAVENS, 21-20

No. 30 Chicago (plus 6) at No. 28 Indianapolis

Colts' experiment of no bye after London game works. Barely.

COLTS, 27-23

No. 4 Philadelphia (minus 3) at No. 27 Detroit

This one scares us. Are Eagles ready to be 4-0? Don't think so.

LIONS, 28-27

No. 8 Atlanta (plus 6) at No. 1 Denver

This one doesn't scare us, but Broncos' defense does.

BRONCOS, 24-13

No. 11 Cincinnati (pick-em) at No. 12 Dallas

Finally, Dak Prescott faces a good defense. Not a good thing for Dallas.

BENGALS, 28-14

No. 25 San Diego (plus 3) at No. 9 Oakland

Chargers are mastering close defeats. Here's another.

RAIDERS, 35-31

No. 17 (tie) Buffalo (plus 2 1-2) at No. 14 Los Angeles

Both teams have made a nice turnaround. Rams grab NFC West lead.

RAMS, 23-21

No. 17 (tie) New York Giants (plus 6 1-2) at No. 7 Green Bay

Until Giants get healthy in secondary, they are doomed against top QBs.

PACKERS, 30-20

No. 24 Tampa Bay (OFF) at No. 16 Carolina

No line because of Cam Newton's uncertain status. Panthers win with or without him.

PANTHERS, 23-21

---

This Week: Against spread (8-7). Straight up8-7)

Season Totals: Against spread (28-32-2). Straight up: (36-26)

Best Bet: 1-3 against spread, 2-2 straight up.

Upset special: 2-2 against spread, 2-2 straight up.

[StarDust Bum]

Underdogs to Watch - Week 5
October 5, 2016

Week 4 wasn't as good for underdogs as Week 3 was, but last week's feature had isolated the Saints (+165 on ML) and Giants (+185 on ML) and thanks to a tremendous fourth quarter comeback, New Orleans was able to get us to the window.

The Saints weren't the only one on the list of sizeable underdogs to win outright as Buffalo and LA got there as well, making the final result 3-for-7 for these underdogs on the ML.

That's not too bad considering all of them were listed at +165 or higher to win outright, and a $100 bet on all seven of those teams came out -$60 in the end. That's why it's critical to be selective with these underdogs when considering ML wagers and this week we've got six more to break down.

Sportsbook.ag Week 5 Underdogs that Qualify

Houston (+7); ML (+230)
Cleveland (+11); ML (+500)
New York Jets (+7); ML (+265)
Chicago (+4.5); ML (+185)
Atlanta (+6); ML (+200)
New York Giants (+7.5); ML (+275)

Readers of this weekly piece shouldn't be surprised to see Cleveland on this list once again as they'll be on here the majority of the year. The Browns are at home and welcome Tom Brady to town as the Patriots get their future Hall-of-Famer back at QB. Not much more than that needs to be said as to why a Browns ML bet is not an option again this week. The rest of the teams on that list do offer some intriguing matchups though, so let's go through them.

Chicago could definitely be considered as they are in Indianapolis to take on the struggling Colts who for some reason did not get a bye week after going to London. The Colts are 1-3 and coach Chuck Pagano's seat is getting hotter by the day. Yet, the Bears still aren't very good overall and we could see a sense of urgency from Indy this week that we've yet to see in 2016. Chicago's win last week took some of the value out of this potential play and I'm not sure you can trust the Bears on the road this week in a non-conference game.

Houston (+230) and Atlanta (+200) have the toughest tests in Week 5 as they are both on the road to take on undefeated Minnesota and Denver respectively. Both of those teams have tremendous defenses and will garner much respect from bettors. I'm not sure either road dog here warrants a strong ML play here, but Atlanta does have the best offense in the league right now and it will be interesting to see if they can keep those numbers up against the Broncos. If they can, the Falcons could go into Mile High and give Denver their first loss in 11+ months and are definitely the better option to consider.

That leaves us with the two New York teams as road underdogs and I do believe that at least one of them gets the job done.

The Jets (+265) are in Pittsburgh to take on a Steelers team that completely dismantled KC on SNF and looked awesome doing it. Pittsburgh has already received a lot of love from bettors this week in part because of that dominant showing, but also because the Jets offense appears to be a complete mess right now with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing nine interceptions the last two weeks. Nobody wants anything to do with the Jets right now from a betting perspective and quite often those are the teams that can be the most dangerous. Things can only go up for Fitzpatrick and that offense, and New York's defense is more than capable of keeping the Steelers attack in check. Had the Jets not looked so bad the last two weeks we would have likely seen this line a little lower, so there is value in the number right now if you believe the Jets can bounce back in this spot.

The Giants (+275) are on the road in Green Bay on SNF as they get a prime time game for the second week in a row. They didn't do much offensively either last week in their loss to Minnesota, and now face a Packers team coming off the bye.

But I wouldn't be so quick to right off the Giants yet and all their squabbles about Odell Beckham being a distraction etc, because this team can score in bunches when they are able to get it rolling and Green Bay's defense hasn't exactly been spectacular this season. QB Eli Manning needs to be more decisive with his decision making and you know he'll love to play his best in the matchup vs. Aaron Rodgers. Going against a team off a bye week is a little concerning, but often times the bye week this early in the year for squads doesn't have the same positive effect that it does later in the year when the grind has really gotten to guys.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Cardinals at 49ers
October 6, 2016


Arizona (-3.5, 42) at San Francisco, 8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFLN

News that Carson Palmer didn’t make the trip to Santa Clara hasn't affected this number at all, which tells you that the public perception that the Cardinals must win this game prevails over anything else. Despite an unstable situation at quarterback and injuries in the secondary, books are banking on the public riding the road favorite and haven't moved off of 3.5.

Chris Johnson was placed on IR earlier in the week, but the ground game is in good hands with the versatile David Johnson likely to be featured heavily to take pressure off Drew Stanton. He's quickly emerged as one of the NFL's top receiving threats out of the backfield and is an explosive, elusive playmaker whose success in this game should determine whether Arizona is successful in getting back to .500.

The 49ers will be playing their first game without top LB NaVorro Bowman, who ruptured his left Achilles tendon in the third quarter of the 24-17 loss to Dallas and is done for the season.

The Cardinals have won three of four in this series, winning last year’s meetings by a combined score of 66-20.

Arizona Cardinals
Season win total: 10 (Over -170, Under -150)
Odds to win NFC West: 7/5 to 7/2
Odds to win NFC: 5/1 to 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 10/1 to 16/1

San Francisco 49ers
Season win total: 5.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win NFC West: 30/1 to 100/1
Odds to win NFC: 30/1 to 1000/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60/1 to 2000/1

LINE MOVEMENT

While both teams are 1-3 and playing for the right to stay out of the NFC West basement, the latest update put out by the WestgateLV SuperBook in adjusting its conference and Super Bowl futures tells you just how differently these teams are regarded. The Cardinals simply haven't lost much steam despite their unexpected poor start because they should rebound here and start getting their act together. Ideally. The Niners just lost their top defensive player and have failed to cover in three in a row, so apparently the books don't see a Blaine Gabbert-led resurgence.

DREW BELIEVER

Stanton will make his first start since Dec. 2014. Arizona is 12-5 in games in which he’s appeared in, but he looked dreadful with a chance to impact Sunday’s 17-13 loss to the Rams, throwing two interceptions while finishing 4-for-11. In his defense, L.A. knew he was passing most downs, came after him relentlessly and had guys in their secondary make plays, but Stanton’s performance certainly didn’t help anyone associated with the Cards at ease coming into this one. The fact this will be his ninth start with the Cards and 12th as an NFL quarterback is reassuring, if only because backup Zac Dysert has never thrown a regular-season pass.

NO NAVORRO, NO PROBLEM?

Bowman led the NFL with 154 tackles in 2016 and will be difficult to replace, although Aaron Lynch returning from a four-game suspension cushions the blow. Although there's no replacing Bowman's presence, the Niners due have a capable backup in Nick Bellore, who has made an impact on special teams. In the short-term, it might have more impact on San Francisco that rookie DE DeForest Buckner (foot) is out, since he's become an impact player immediately. NT Glenn Dorsey is questionable with a knee injury, but should play. The same goes for DE Aric Armstead (shoulder). Key safety Jimmie Ward won’t play, so a defense that has been the team’s strength has major concerns.

RECENT MEETINGS (Arizona 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)

11/29/15 Arizona 19-13 at San Francisco (AZ -7.5, 45)
9/27/15 Arizona 47-7 vs. San Francisco (AZ -7, 45.5)
12/28/14 San Francisco 20-17 vs. Arizona (SF -6, 38)
9/21/14 Arizona 23-14 vs. San Francisco (SF -3, 41)
12/29/13 San Francisco 23-20 at Arizona (AZ -3, 41)

PROPS

Of the props available below at Sportsbook.ag, I'm most partial to going over on Danny Amendola receptions and Lamar Miller rushing yards. Fading Watt tackles on the premise that the Patriots will look to run plays away from him is a solid move too.

Blaine Gabbert pass attempts 40: (+300 over)
Gabbert interceptions 1.5: (+200 over)
Gabbert passing yards 250: (+175 over)
Carlos Hyde rushing yards 100: (+300 over)
Hyde rushing attempts 22: (+225 over)
David Johnson rushing yards 125: (+275 over)
David Johnson rushing attempts 23: (+225 over)
Drew Stanton passing yards 300: (+275 over)
Larry Fitzgerald receiving yards 100: (+175 over)
Fitzgerald receptions 8 or more: (+130)
First-half points: Cardinals 12.5, 49ers 9.5 (-115 o/u)
Total points: Cardinals 23, 49ers 19 (-120/-115 over, -110/-115 under)
Longest TD 40.5 yds: (-115 o/u)

CARDINALS AS A ROAD FAVORITE

Arizona is 0-1 in this situation after losing at Buffalo 11 days ago, faltering 33-18 as a 4.5-point chalk. They were 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in this role last season, losing only at Pittsburgh.

49ERS AS A HOME DOG

After opening the season with an upset of L.A at home, the Niners lost in this role against Dallas last week. San Francisco was 4-4 SU (5-3 ATS) as a home dog in '15, pulling off upsets against the Vikings, Ravens, Packers and Rams.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The WestgateLV Superbook sent out its advance lines for next week on Wednesday and has the 49ers as a 7-point road underdog as they fly cross-country to Buffalo. The Cardinals host the Jets on Monday night and are listed as a 6.5-point favorite with the expectation that Palmer will clear concussion protocol by then.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Six more NFL trends to ponder, with Week 5 coming up……..

— Baltimore is 2-12-2 in last 16 games as a favorite.

— Bengals are 30-18-5 in last 43 games against NFC teams.

— Dolphins are 2-9 vs spread in their last 11 games.

— Carolina is 11-3 in last 14 games as a divisional home favorite.

— Steelers covered seven of their last nine games.

— Falcons covered eight of last nine as an underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night NFL Betting Preview: Cardinals at 49ers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Larry Fitzgerald will have to step up big time, if the Cardinals want to avoid a 1-4 start.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 42)

The Arizona Cardinals have been plagued by turnovers of late and the trendy preseason Super Bowl pick temporarily are faced with turning over the keys to backup quarterback Drew Stanton on Thursday when they visit the San Francisco 49ers. Veteran Carson Palmer did not travel with the team to California due to a concussion, leaving Stanton to be left looking to conjure the magic that saw him pull a 5-3 mark out of his hat during a stint in 2014.

Stanton struggled mightily in taking over for the concussed Palmer on Sunday, completing just 4-of-11 passes in a 17-13 setback to Los Angeles and his two interceptions upped Arizona's turnover total to nine during its two-game skid. "I'll say this, I never envisioned this type of start," Cardinals general manager Steve Keim told Arizona Sports 98.7 FM. "I don't know that anybody -- fans or anybody in the organization -- would have envisioned this." The 49ers had no such issue with the Rams with a 28-0 season-opening shellacking, but the defense of Chip Kelly's club summarily has been shredded to the tune of 458.3 yards and 35.7 points per contest during its three-game losing streak. To add injury to insult, four-time NFL All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman sustained a torn left Achilles in Sunday's 24-17 setback to Dallas and will miss the rest of the season.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened this game as 2.5-point road faves and were bet as high as -4, but then the news came out Palmer would miss the game, the line dropped back to Cardinals -3.5. The total has also dropped with Stanton taking the snaps for Palmer, going from 43.5 to 43, to the current number of 42. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Cardinals (-1) - 49ers (+6) + home field (-3) = 49ers +4

INJURY REPORT:

Cardinals - QB C. Palmer (Out Thursday, concussion), T D. Humphries (probable Thursday, ankle), TE D. Fells (questionable Thursday, shoulder), DT E. Stinson (questionable Thursday, toe), CB J. Bethel (questionable Thursday, foot), DT J. Mauro (questionable, chest), DT F. Rucker (questionable Thursday, knee), DT R. Nkemdiche (questionable Thursday, ankle).

49ers - TE V. McDonald (probable Thursday, hip), DL A. Armstead (probable Thursday, shoulder), CB M. Cromartie (probable Thursday, ankle), G Z. Beadles (questionable Thursday, ankle), CB C. Davis (questionable Thursday, quadricep), WR J. Kerley (questionable Thursday, ankle), DL G. dorsey (questionable Thursday, knee), DB J. Ward (questionable Thursday, quadricep), Dl D. Buckner (doubtful Thursday, foot). LB N. Bowman (out for season, Achilles).

WEATHER REPORT: It is shaping up to be a beautiful night for football in Santa Clara. The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the high 60's for the game. There is also going to be a six to 11 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern endzone.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians has dropped back-to-back games on only two occasions in his NFL career with Arizona and as a result finds his team languishing in a tie for last place in he NFC West division along with the 49ers. The key to this contest is the concussion protocol in which QB Carson Palmer is under. With him they don’t figure to drop three straight games. Without him they’ve got a headache - pun intended. The dataabse tells us Frisco is 1-5 ATS on Thursdays, but 'Zona is 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back division games."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Initial money came in on Arizona, driving the spread up to -4.5, but that's starting to look more and more like a ploy play. We're back down to -3, and my guess is that this could end up closing lower than that. Currently, the money favors Arizona 60-40 while the bets are 75-25 on the road squad."

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (1-3, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U): David Johnson (64 carries, 300 yards, three TDs) leads the NFL with 510 yards from scrimmage and has recorded 100 or more total yards in all four contests this season and eight of his last nine games. Johnson amassed 124 from scrimmage (83 rushing, 41 receiving) versus the Rams, but the workload was decidedly different in last year's season series with San Francisco (15 carries, 46 yards). The 24-year-old will be spelled by Andre Ellington, as veteran Chris Johnson (groin) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. Tyvon Branch was also shuffled to IR, with fellow safety Tyrann Mathieu temporarily being moved into the slot while D.J. Swearinger plays in nickel packages.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-3, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): San Francisco collected eight takeaways in its first three games to provide a helping hand for the NFL's 28th-ranked offense, which scored a league-best 45 points off the turnovers after mustering an NFL-worst 25 for the entire 2015 season. The 49ers failed to force a turnover versus the Cowboys on Sunday and Blaine Gabbert's fourth interception of the season ended his team's bid for an upset. Carlos Hyde (73 carries, 299 yards, NFC-best five TDs) is averaging 4.9 yards per rush over his last two games, but was limited to just 51 yards in a 47-7 loss at Arizona on Sept. 27.


TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last four versus NFC West opponents.
* Under is 8-1 in 49ers last nine Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: So far the public is still backing the Cardinals, even without Carson Palmer, with 62 percent of wagers laying the points with the road faves. Meanwhile the total is seeing a much more even split, with 52 percent of wagers on the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday, October 6

Arizona @ San Francisco

Game 303-304
October 6, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
136.060
San Francisco
128.979
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3
42
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-3); Over

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, October 9

NY Giants @ Green Bay

Game 473-474
October 9, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
128.868
Green Bay
138.668
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
48
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Under

Cincinnati @ Dallas

Game 471-472
October 9, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
135.147
Dallas
131.633
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 3 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
Pick
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
Under

San Diego @ Oakland

Game 469-470
October 9, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
131.621
Oakland
129.105
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 2 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 4
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+4); Over

Buffalo @ Los Angeles

Game 467-468
October 9, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
140.568
Los Angeles
135.974
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+2 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Denver

Game 465-466
October 9, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.529
Denver
143.971
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-5 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Indianapolis

Game 463-464
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.970
Indianapolis
128.847
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 5
48
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+5); Under

Philadelphia @ Detroit

Game 461-462
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
137.570
Detroit
129.317
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3); Under

Washington @ Baltimore

Game 459-460
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
129.909
Baltimore
130.975
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+4); Under

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh

Game 457-458
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
129.231
Pittsburgh
143.074
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 14
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-7); Under

New England @ Cleveland

Game 455-456
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
134.171
Cleveland
125.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 8 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 11 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+11 1/2); Under

Tennessee @ Miami

Game 453-454
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
124.512
Miami
130.348
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
34 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-3 1/2); Over

Houston @ Minnesota

Game 451-452
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
130.689
Minnesota
143.085
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 12
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6
40
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-6); Under


Monday, October 10

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Game 475-476
October 10, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
128.408
Carolina
130.819
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 6
42
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+6); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5


Sunday's games

Titans (1-3) @ Dolphins (1-3)— Tennessee fired its special teams coach Monday after LW’s debacle in Houston. Titans are 10-18 as road underdogs last 4+ years, 1-1 this year- they have not allowed an offensive TD in second half of last three games, outscoring foes 23-10- they lost 38-10 at home to Miami LY, are 2-4 in last six series games, 1-3 here, with last visit in 2012. Over last decade, Dolphins are dismal 11-27 as home favorite, 0-1 this year- this is first of four strait home games for Fish (next road game, Nov 13). Miami is -7 in turnovers in its last three games. AFC East teams are 5-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 0-1 as a favorite. AFC South teams are 5-7, 2-4 as underdogs.

Patriots (3-1) @ Browns (0-4)— Brady is back at QB here after his suspension; Patriots are 6-2 vs team Belichick used to coach (36-44 in five years, 1991-95), 2-2 here, with last visit in ’10. New England is 4-12 as road favorites last 3+ years; they nipped Arizona 23-21 (+6) in only road game so far this year, with Garoppolo at QB. Browns are 0-4 this year, starting three QBs; they’re 2-2 vs spread, with last three games going over total. Cleveland lost 25-20 (+6.5, led 20-0) in only home game so far, vs Ravens- they trailed only one of four games at halftime, but have been outscored 73-17 in second half of games. Patriots are 1-1 as a favorite this year. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread, 1-2 as underdogs.

Jets (1-3) @ Steelers (3-1)— New York turned ball over 11 times (-9) in last two games; they’ve been outscored 51-30 in second half of games, with one TD on 21 drives since 37-31 win at Buffalo. Jets are 15-19-3 in last 37 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year. Steelers won 24-16/43-14 in home games this year; they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year. Pitt hasn’t played game this year decided by less than 8 points; they’re 19-5 in last 24 games vs Jets; nine of last 11 series totals were 37 or less. Jets lost last nine visits to Steel City, losing last one 27-10 in ’12. AFC East teams are 5-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-5 as an underdog.

Texans (3-1) @ Vikings (4-0)— Minnesota is on 17-2 spread run, 4-0 this year, after Monday’s win over Giants; Vikings won 17-14/24-10 in two home games this year- they’re 10-2 as a home favorite under Zimmer, 7-0 in last seven tries. Texans’ offense was rolling early LW, with O’Brien calling plays, until TE Fiedorowicz (knee) was injured. Houston lost 27-0 in Foxboro in its only road game; they’re 5-6-1 as road dogs under O’Brien. Minnesota won all three series games, by 6-7-17 points, in three series games; Texans lost 28-21 in their only visit here, 8 years ago. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside its division, 2-4 as underdogs, 1-3 on road. NFC North teams are 5-5 its spread n non-divisional games, 1-2 as home favorites.

Redskins (2-2) @ Ravens (3-1)— Short road trip for Washington squad that scored 60 points in winning last two games after 0-2 start; they’ve got six takeaways (+4) in last two games, winning despite being outgunned by 54-79 yards. Redskins are 3-2 vs Ravens, winning last meeting 31-28 in OT four years ago; Skins lost 24-10 in last visit here, in ’08. Washington won only road game 29-27 (+4.5) at Giants two weeks ago. Four Raven games this year were decided by total of 14 points; last two were decided by total of 3 points. Baltimore NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-division games, 2-2 as underdogs, 2-1 on road. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread outside its division, 3-2 as home favorites.

Eagles (3-0) @ Lions (1-3)— Philly sprinted out to 3-0 start behind rookie QB Wentz, but then had bye; will it kill their momentum? Eagles have yet to turn ball over (+6), winning 29-14 in only road game, at Chicago. Philly is 15-2 in last 17 post-bye games (2-2 in last four); going back to 1990, they’re 13-3 vs spread as favorite in post-bye games (most of that was under Reid). Eagles are 7-2 in last nine games vs Detroit, but lost 45-14 to Lions LY (TY was 430-227, Lions). Iggles are 2-1-1 in last four visits here. Detroit lost its last three games, by 1-7-3 points; underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in their games this year- they lost 16-15 to Titans in only home game. Since 2011, Lions are 1-7-1 vs spread as a home underdog.

Bears (1-3) @ Colts (1-3)— Both teams are struggling badly; Indy is first team not to have bye after London game- they requested it that way. Colts have 12 TDs on 41 drives, but needed 63-yards in last 1:20 to nip San Diego for its only win- three of their four games went over. Indy had three takeaways in their win, a total of one in their three losses- they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites. Bears got first win LW, at home over Lions, holding Detroit without offensive TD. Chicago won six of last eight series games, winning last three visits here, by 4-14-16 points; Bears lost 23-14/31-17 on road this year; they’re 6-4-1 in last 11 games as a road dog. NFC North teams are 5-5 vs spread outside its division, 3-2 as road dogs. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread, 3-2 as home favorites.

Falcons (3-1) @ Broncos (4-0)— Atlanta has NFL’s top offense, gaining over 7 yards/play, scoring 38 pts/game- they scored 93 points in last two games, but also allow 31 pts/game. Falcons are 6-1 in last seven games as a road underdog. Broncos won/covered all four games, winning last three by 12+ points; they’re 2-4-1 as home favorites under Kubiak, 1-0 this year. Bengals are only one of four Denver foes to average 5+ yards/pass vs Denver- they threw for 5.4 yds/pass. Atlanta has thrown for 7+ yards/pass in every game. Denver won seven of last nine series games, winning three of last four here; Falcons’ last visit here was in 2004. AFC West teams are 9-5 vs spread outside the division, 3-2 as home favorites. NFC South teams are 4-6, but 3-1 as road underdogs. Over is 4-0 in Atlanta games, 3-1 in Denver games this season.

Bills (2-2) @ Rams (3-1)— Buffalo won its last two games; they’ve turned ball over only twice this year (+6), but scored only two offensive TDs on 18 drives in splitting two road games. Bills are 8-5-1 in last 14 games as a road dog- they caught break LW, playing Patriots when NE’s only QB was playing with injured thumb. Rams won last three games (two on road) with +6 turnover ratio; they’ve only led one game at half this year and that was 6-3 over Seattle. Underdogs covered all four LA games this season. Bills won five of last seven series games; they were 2-0 in St Louis, lost last two games here vs Rams. NFC West teams are 3-5 vs spread outside the division, 1-2 as home favorites. AFC East teams are 5-5, 2-3 as road underdogs.

Chargers (1-3) @ Raiders (3-1)— San Diego led all four of its games in 4th quarter, led all four games by double digits, but lost three of the four. Chargers allowed 14 TDs on 45 drives, are allowing 19.5 second half points/game. Average total in San Diego games this year: 57.3. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Raider games this year; all four Oakland games were decided by 7 or less points- they lost 35-28 at Atlanta in only home game. Oakland swept Chargers 37-29/23-20 LY, after losing five of previous six series games; San Diego is 3-2 in its last five visits here. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-9 vs spread this year in divisional games. Over is 3-1 in both teams’ games this year. San Diego 19-9-1 in last 30 games as a road dog (1-1 this year). Since 2008, Oakland is 6-14 as a home favorite.

Bengals (2-2) @ Cowboys (3-1)— Dallas won/covered its last three games; they’ve only turned ball over twice in four games (+3) despite having a rookie QB. Cowboys ran ball for 393 yards in last two games- since 2010, they’re 9-28 as a home favorite. Bengals had three extra days to prep after beating Miami LW; they’ve run for less than 80 yards in three of four games this year. Dallas is 7-4 in series, winning 31-22/20-19 in last two meetings; Bengals are 1-5 in Dallas, with only win in ’88, last visit in ’08. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread in non-division games, 1-2 as road underdogs. NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread, 3-1 as home favorites outside their division. Have to wonder if Bengals losing coordinators Gruden-Jackson-Zimmer over last few years has drained brain power in their coaching staff?

Giants (2-2) @ Packers (3-1)— Last 7+ years, Green Bay is 31-20-1 as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; Packers are 9-1 vs spread in last ten post-bye games, 7-2 in last nine when favored. Pack was held to 4.4 yards/pass in only loss, at Minnesota. Giants are on short week after loss in Minnesota Monday; NY has only one takeaway, is -8 in turnovers and was just 2-12 on third down vs Vikings. Giants are 5-7-1 in last 13 games as a road underdog. Big Blue smarting after consecutive losses; they’ve won last three games with Packers- they’re 3-1 in last four visits here, with last one 2011 playoff game. NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread outside the division, 1-1 as road dogs. NFC North teams are 5-5 vs spread, 1-2 as home favorites. Last two weeks, Giants allowed 8.2/7.3 yards/pass attempt; they’ll need to do better than that here.

Monday's game

Buccaneers (1-3) @ Panthers (1-3)— Unclear yet if Newton will start here; if not, backup QB Anderson is 20-25 as an NFL starter, just 2-0 since 2010. Carolina turned ball over nine times (-5) in last three games; they’ve led three of four games at the half, but are 1-3. Tampa Bay allowed 34.7 pts/game in losing last three games; they’re -9 in turnovers, were outscored 46-19 in second half last three weeks. Carolina is 13-5-2 in last 20 games as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 10-8 in last 18 games as road dog. Carolina won last six series games, four by 14+ points; Panthers swept Bucs 37-23/38-10 LY, with 8 takeaways (+5) in two games and two defensive TDs, with five scoring drives less than 50 yards. Bucs lost last three visits here by 21-2-28 points. Tampa Bay has lost field position in all four games, three by 7+ points; their special teams need improvement and they need to protect the ball better.

[StarDust Bum]

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 45-64-3 41.28% -12700

O/U Picks 49-65-4 42.98% -11250


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ARI at SF 08:25 PM

SF +3.5

U 43.0

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NFL TRENDS

Houston at Minnesota, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 6-16 ATS in dome games
Minnesota: 7-0 ATS off a home win

Tennessee at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 3-11 ATS in games played on a grass field
Miami: 85-59 UNDER as a home favorite

New England at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET
New England: 41-21 ATS after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game
Cleveland: 24-41 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

NY Jets at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM ET
New York: 9-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Pittsburgh: 48-28 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7

Washington at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Washington: 55-78 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Baltimore: 29-15 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Philadelphia at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia: 21-8 UNDER after a bye week
Detroit: 1-8 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Chicago at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 10-24 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Indianapolis: 54-35 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5

Atlanta at Denver, 4:05 PM ET
Atlanta: 14-31 ATS off a home win against a division rival
Denver: 9-1 ATS in the first half of the season

Buffalo at Los Angeles, 4:25 PM ET
Buffalo: 6-0 UNDER off a win against a division rival
Los Angeles: 6-19 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game

San Diego at Oakland, 4:25 PM ET
San Diego: 6-0 ATS in road games in games played on a grass field
Oakland: 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

Cincinnati at Dallas, 4:25 PM ET
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in road lined games
Dallas: 5-17 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games

NY Giants at Green Bay, 8:30 PM ET
New York: 29-14 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Green Bay: 11-2 ATS off a division game