The Bum's 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

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Hunt moves into 2nd on Toledo's rushing list, Rockets win
November 2, 2016

AKRON, Ohio (AP) Logan Woodside threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns, and Kareem Hunt ran for 136 yards and a score to help Toledo beat Akron 48-17 on Wednesday night.

Toledo led by just 10 points at halftime, but scored on its first four possessions of the second half. Hunt had a short touchdown run, Terry Swanson caught a pass out of the backfield for a 10-yard TD, Zach Yousey scored from 44 yards out on a catch-and-run and Art Thompkins capped the scoring.

Swanson had 67 yards rushing and two total touchdowns for Toledo (7-2, 4-1 Mid-American Conference). Hunt moved past Wasean Tait for second on Toledo's career rushing list and Michael Roberts set a program record for tight ends with his 10th touchdown of the season.

Thomas Woodson threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns and one interception for Akron (5-5, 3-3). Jerome Lane, who finished with six catches for 177 yards, took a short pass over the middle and raced for a 91-yard touchdown on Akron's first play from scrimmage.

Toledo tied it at 10-all on the first play of the second quarter when Swanson ran untouched for a 9-yard touchdown. Just before halftime, Roberts caught a back-shoulder pass from Woodside in the end zone for an 18-yard touchdown.

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Thursday’s six-pack

NFL trends with Week 9 right around the corner:

— Falcons are 2-14 vs spread in their last 16 games as a favorite.

— Dallas won/covered its last six games.

— Tennessee is 4-12 vs spread in its last 16 games.

— San Francisco is 10-5-1 in last 16 games as a home dog.

— Denver is 21-9 vs spread in its last 30 divisional games.

— Carolina is 3-7 vs spread in its last ten games.

Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud

13) Cubs 8, Indians 7 (10)– Baseball needed this; high drama, a rain delay in extra innings and a big market team (#6 payroll) ending a 108-year title drought. Hopefully they got great TV ratings.

As for Cleveland, well, the Cavaliers won the NBA title in June.

Think about the Miami Marlins, who won the World Series in their 5th year of existence (1997, against the Indians), then a second one six years later, the only two times they’ve made the playoffs.

Indians haven’t won a World Series since 1948; life can be weird.

12) Minnesota Vikings are 5-2, having a good year in the first year in their new domed stadium, but OC Norv Turner suddenly quit on Wednesday, apparently shocking everyone in the organization.

Vikings lost their QB for the season with a knee injury in training camp; they traded a 1st-round pick for Sam Bradford, but scored only 11 offensive TD’s in their first seven games- it is hard to break in a new QB when he arrives after training camp.

New OC Pat Shurmur worked with Bradford in St Louis/Philly; until someone fixes Minnesota’s offensive line, it might not help.

11) Late Tuesday night (very late), I stumbled upon the live broadcast of the final table at the World Series of Poker from Las Vegas, with heads-up play going on for the $8M first prize.

Poker is good TV, in an odd way; I got a research project done in the four hours I had it on. Finally went to bed at 5:20am, as one of the analysts, pro poker player Antonio Esfandiari, was bemoaning how passive the player who was behind was playing.

10) First prize was $8,005,310; second place was $4,661,228, so they were playing heads-up for $3,344,082. Over 6,000 people started in the Main Event back in July. Quite an accomplishment to win it. Or finish 2nd.

9) Big 14 is going to televise six Friday night games next season, which is going to be controversial because major colleges have traditionally left Friday nights to high school games.

8) Was sitting in a bar having lunch the other day and a college golf tournament was on TV; college golfers carry their own golf bags and those bags are a lot smaller than ones PGA golfers use.

7) Redskins’ OT Trent Williams is suspended for four games; those games are against: Vikings-Packers-Cowboys-Cardinals.

Williams is Washington’s best lineman- this isn’t good for them.

6) There are “Make America Great Again” hats on EBay, signed by Donald Trump that are selling for anywhere from $500-800. What a country.

5) Sacramento Kings lost in OT at Miami Tuesday, their 15th loss in a row in south Florida. Sacramento is better this year but DeMarcus Cousins has trouble controlling his emotions, and as a result, he gets hosed on key calls. His sixth foul in this game was an offensive foul call that was just terrible.

4) CFL schedule gets weird sometimes; it is 20 weeks long, with each team getting two byes. Ottawa-Winnipeg play twice a year; this year’s meetings are in Weeks 19-20; who thought that was a good idea?

3) I’ll sound old saying this, but it is true; our society has gotten ridiculously soft. NBA teams now routinely rest players if team has games on consecutive nights.

Why? AAU teams play as many as three teams in a day; I don’t see any kids collapsing from exhaustion. But pros don’t want to play some guys two nights in a row. Oy.

Ron Boone is a broadcaster for the Utah Jazz; when he played, and he played damn well (16 pts/game in his career) he played in every one of his team’s 1,041 games and schedules in the 70’s were lot different than now; no charters, some 3 games/3 nights stretches.

People nowadays pay serious money to watch these guys play; they deserve a good show.

2) Quote of the Day #2:
“I’m a professional athlete. What professional athlete don’t have a gun? I have a wife and I have a son at home. My job is to protect them at all costs, and my job is to protect myself as well even though I know I have security here, but I have to protect myself as well.”
Eagles WR Josh Huff, with an ominous quote

1— More from Mr Huff:
“I’m from Houston. You can’t trust a lot of people in Houston. There’s always somebody out to get you. You’ve got to protect yourself. Even when I’m back in Houston, I always have a gun on me, because there’s been several instances in Houston where I’ve lost a friend to gun violence, and he was just in the wrong place at the wrong time, so why would I let that happen to me?”

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Thursday’s games

Buffalo is 0-3 as a road underdog this year, outscored 117-24 in those games- they’re 4-9 in last 13 games as a road dog. Home side won last six Buffalo-Ohio games; Bulls lost last three visits here, by 23-7-17 points. Underdogs covered six of last nine series games. Ohio won five of last six games but is 0-3 vs spread as a home favorite this year, after being 6-2 last two years. Buffalo is 2-6 but upset Akron LW; four of Bulls’ last five losses are by 24+ points. Ohio ran ball for 477 yards in its last two games. MAC home favorites are 4-13 vs spread this spread.

Arkansas State won last three games with Georgia State: 48-34/35-33 at home, 52-10 in last visit here, two years ago. ASU ran ball for 680 yards in last two meetings- they’ve won three games in row after an 0-4 start, winning by 1-10-41 points- they also had two bye weeks in there since the 0-4 start. This is Red Wolves’ first road game since 34-20 loss at Utah State Sept 16; they’re 10-5 in last 15 games as a road favorite. Georgia State is 2-6 but covered its last five lined games; they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as a home dog. Sun Belt home dogs are 4-4.

Oklahoma won its last 12 games with Iowa State, covering nine of last 11; Cyclones scored 16 or less points in all 12 games. Sooners covered four of last five visits to Ames. Oklahoma gained 684-751 yards vs ISU last two years. Iowa State is 0-4 in Big X but covered three of four games, losing by 3-7-21-5 points; Cyclones are 2-0 as home dogs this year after being 11-14-1 under the previous coach. Oklahoma scored 49.4 pts/game in winning its last five games after a 1-2 start; Sooners won 52-46/66-59 in their two true road games this year- they also lost at Houston, but that game was NRG Stadium, not the Cougars’ stadium.

Colorado is 7-0 vs spread this year, only perfect spread record in country; they won both Pac-12 home games, 47-6/40-16, are now 8-0 as a home favorite under MacIntyre. UCLA won its last five games with Colorado; Bruins were double digit favorite in all five games- they’re a double digit dog here and QB Rosen is out for year. UCLA won 40-37/42-14 in last two visits to Boulder. Despite losing to Bruins last two years, Colorado did gain 554-500 TY in those games. UCLA lost four of last five games, losing last three by 3-6-7 points- they’re 6-5 as home dogs under Mora, 1-1 this season.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 10

Thursday,November 3

UCLA @ Colorado

Game 315-316
November 3, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UCLA
88.722
Colorado
108.603
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 20
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
by 11 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(-11 1/2); Over

Oklahoma @ Iowa State

Game 313-314
November 3, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma
108.273
Iowa State
92.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 16
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma
by 21
70
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa State
(+21); Under

Arkansas St @ Georgia State

Game 311-312
November 3, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas St
83.749
Georgia State
72.604
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 11
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(-3); Over

Buffalo @ Ohio

Game 309-310
November 3, 2016 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
63.124
Ohio
80.654
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio
by 17 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio
by 20
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+20); Over

Lamar @ Nicholls St

Game 501-502
November 3, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Lamar
55.861
Nicholls St
56.654
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nicholls St
by 1
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nicholls St
Pick
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Nicholls St
Over

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Thursday’s games

Buffalo is 0-3 as a road underdog this year, outscored 117-24 in those games- they’re 4-9 in last 13 games as a road dog. Home side won last six Buffalo-Ohio games; Bulls lost last three visits here, by 23-7-17 points. Underdogs covered six of last nine series games. Ohio won five of last six games but is 0-3 vs spread as a home favorite this year, after being 6-2 last two years. Buffalo is 2-6 but upset Akron LW; four of Bulls’ last five losses are by 24+ points. Ohio ran ball for 477 yards in its last two games. MAC home favorites are 4-13 vs spread this spread.

Arkansas State won last three games with Georgia State: 48-34/35-33 at home, 52-10 in last visit here, two years ago. ASU ran ball for 680 yards in last two meetings- they’ve won three games in row after an 0-4 start, winning by 1-10-41 points- they also had two bye weeks in there since the 0-4 start. This is Red Wolves’ first road game since 34-20 loss at Utah State Sept 16; they’re 10-5 in last 15 games as a road favorite. Georgia State is 2-6 but covered its last five lined games; they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as a home dog. Sun Belt home dogs are 4-4.

Oklahoma won its last 12 games with Iowa State, covering nine of last 11; Cyclones scored 16 or less points in all 12 games. Sooners covered four of last five visits to Ames. Oklahoma gained 684-751 yards vs ISU last two years. Iowa State is 0-4 in Big X but covered three of four games, losing by 3-7-21-5 points; Cyclones are 2-0 as home dogs this year after being 11-14-1 under the previous coach. Oklahoma scored 49.4 pts/game in winning its last five games after a 1-2 start; Sooners won 52-46/66-59 in their two true road games this year- they also lost at Houston, but that game was NRG Stadium, not the Cougars’ stadium.

Colorado is 7-0 vs spread this year, only perfect spread record in country; they won both Pac-12 home games, 47-6/40-16, are now 8-0 as a home favorite under MacIntyre. UCLA won its last five games with Colorado; Bruins were double digit favorite in all five games- they’re a double digit dog here and QB Rosen is out for year. UCLA won 40-37/42-14 in last two visits to Boulder. Despite losing to Bruins last two years, Colorado did gain 554-500 TY in those games. UCLA lost four of last five games, losing last three by 3-6-7 points- they’re 6-5 as home dogs under Mora, 1-1 this season.


---------------------------------------------

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 10

Thurs – Nov. 3

Buffalo at Ohio, 6:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 27-44 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games
Ohio: 7-0 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog

Arkansas State at Georgia State, 7:30 PM ET
Arkansas St: 3-12 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more
Georgia St: 11-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Oklahoma at Iowa State, 7:30 PM ET
Oklahoma: 9-2 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game
Iowa St: 11-2 UNDER in home games after 4 or more consecutive straight up losses

UCLA at Colorado, 9:00 PM ET
UCLA: 0-6 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game
Colorado: 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:

11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50

TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 44 - 36 - 6 *****

GOY...........0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 237-227-11 51.08% -6350

O/U Picks 90-87-4 50.85% -2850

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 3

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ARST at GSU 07:30 PM

GSU +4.5 *****

U 48.0

OKLA at ISU 07:30 PM

ISU +20.5

U 71.0 *****

UCLA at COLO 09:00 PM

COLO -13.0 *****

O 56.5

[StarDust Bum]

Ohio builds big lead, tops Buffalo 34-10
November 3, 2016

ATHENS, Ohio (AP) Quinton Maxwell passed for 236 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 50 yards and another score to help Ohio beat Buffalo 34-10 on Thursday night.

The Bobcats (7-3, 5-1 Mid-American) scored on the first play from scrimmage - Maxwell's 73-yard toss to Papi White - and pulled away with the help of Buffalo's early mistakes.

The Bulls (2-7, 1-4) punted on their first possession, followed by an interception, a missed field goal and a fumble. Ohio answered each miscue with points and led 20-0 with 11:29 left in the second quarter when Louie Zervos kicked a career-long 51-yard field goal.

Buffalo scored 36 seconds later on Tyree Jackson's 75-yard TD pass to Mason Schreck. But Ohio made it 27-7 with a 67-yard TD drive on the next possession and capped the scoring early in the fourth quarter on Maxwell's 1-yard keeper.

Jackson had 302 yards passing for Buffalo.

---------------------------------

Arkansas State beats Georgia State 31-16
November 3, 2016

ATLANTA (AP) Johnston White had two touchdown runs, and Arkansas State blocked two kicks and scored on two returns to beat Georgia State 31-16 on Thursday night.

White scored his second touchdown from 3 yards with 2:06 left after the Red Wolves (4-4, 4-0 Sun Belt) forced Georgia State (2-7, 1-4) into a four-and-out deep in the Panthers' territory.

White put the Red Wolves in front for good at 17-10 on a 1-yard run late in the third quarter. Blaise Taylor made it a 14-point advantage on a 68-yard punt return with 13:30 left in the fourth.

Georgia State's Tra Barnett took the ensuing kickoff 90 yards to cut it to 24-16, but Arkansas State blocked the extra-point attempt.

Cody Brown blocked Rogier Ten Lohuis' 50-yard, field-goal attempt late in the first quarter, and Chris Humes returned it 57 yards to give the Red Wolves their first lead at 10-3.

Taylor moved into second place in Sun Belt history with 669 career punt return yards.

-------------------------------------

Mayfield, Sooners hold off Iowa St. 34-24
November 3, 2016

IAMES, Iowa (AP) Baker Mayfield threw four more touchdown passes for the streaking Oklahoma Sooners.

Mayfield completed 25 of 34 passes for 328 yards and 12th-ranked Oklahoma held off Iowa State 34-24 on Thursday night for its sixth straight victory.

Dede Westbrook caught seven passes for 131 yards and a score for the Sooners (7-2, 6-0 Big 12). They beat the Cyclones (1-8, 0-6) for the 18th time in a row and the 74th time in 81 meetings.

Mayfield threw TD passes to Westbrook and Dimitri Flowers in the final 4:16 of the first half, extending his streak of games with at least four touchdown tosses to an FBS-high four games.

Mayfield has 31 scoring passes, good for second nationally, with just six interceptions.

''That was a big jolt. They didn't have the lead but for 10 seconds,'' Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said about the 65-yard TD reception by Westbrook that came immediately after Iowa State jumped ahead 17-14. ''Dede and Baker have been doing that a bunch.''

Oklahoma's defense stiffened after some early struggles, allowing just seven points in the second half to help the injury-depleted Sooners survive on the road.

''We're short a few guys. But we had some young guys step in and take full control of the game,'' Westbrook said.

Jacob Park passed for 160 yards and two touchdowns for the Cyclones in his first career start. They've dropped five straight.

Iowa State played without rushing leader Mike Warren. He sprained an ankle last week in a loss to Kansas State.

''I just think knowing that the front we were going to face, we had to throw the football a little bit, and you Jacob gave us the best opportunity to start the football game,'' Iowa State coach Matt Campbell said.

THE TAKEAWAY

Oklahoma: The Sooners maintained their hold atop the Big 12 by avoiding the Thursday night road upset that has derailed more than a few teams in recent years. With Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma State up next, Oklahoma is control of its own destiny in the league title race.

Iowa State: The Cyclones showed glimpses of promise yet again. But they're not ready to beat a conference contender like Oklahoma quite yet. Still, it was the fourth time in six games that Iowa State was within 10 points in a league game.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

Oklahoma didn't do much to impress the voters . But margins of victory aren't terribly important when it comes to road league games in November. Besides, the Big 12 championship is essentially all the Sooners have left to play for - and the rankings don't matter for that.

Iowa State: The Cyclones once again showed glimpses of promise. But they're not ready to beat a team as talented as the Sooners just yet. Still, Iowa State looked respectable for a program that had dropped its previous 11 games to coach Bob Stoops by an average score of 41-9.

FLOWERS BLOOMS

With Joe Mixon (suspension) and Samaje Perine (injury) out of action Thursday, Dimitri Flowers stepped in to give Oklahoma a running game with 115 yards on 22 carries. Freshman Abdul Adams added 54 yards. ''I told him in the locker room in front of the whole team, I don't believe I've ever seen a guy do all of that, what he did, so well in a game,'' Stoops said of Flowers. ''And he had two days of practice to do it.''

THE NUMBERS

Mayfield, who was 25 of 34 passing, has 19 TDs and just 2 picks last four games. ...Westbrook now has four TD grabs of at least 65 yards this season. ... Oklahoma has allowed just 27 points in its last two games. Granted the Sooners played Kansas and Iowa State, but they allowed 59 against Texas Tech before that. ... Joel Lanning is quickly becoming Iowa State's backup quarterback. Lanning threw just one pass, an incompletion, though his 41-yard TD run in the second quarter gave the Cyclones a 17-14 lead. That gave Iowa State fans hope that an upset was possible, but Mayfield proved to be too tough to stop.

UP NEXT

Oklahoma hosts the 13th-ranked Bears in a matchup with serious Big 12 title implications. The Sooners won their first 20 matchups against the Bears, but are 2-3 the past five years.

Iowa State travels to face Kansas in the least appealing matchups in the Big 12 this year. The Jayhawks are 1-7 and have lost their last three games by an average of 40 points.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 21 Colorado squeaks by UCLA 20-10 despite penalties
November 3, 2016

BOULDER, Colo. (AP) Isaiah Oliver returned a punt 68 yards for a score with 5:27 remaining and No. 21 Colorado overcame eight personal-foul penalties to beat UCLA 20-10 on Thursday night.

Oliver caught the punt on the right side of the field, cut back to the left and went untouched for the decisive score. It was the first punt return for a TD in 11 years for Colorado (7-2, 5-1 Pac-12, No. 15 CFP) and came on a night when the Buffaloes struggled to get much going.

The game featured a combined 25 penalties for 224 yards, two blocked kicks and five turnovers. UCLA (3-6, 1-5) has dropped four straight.

Third-string Colorado kicker Chris Graham connected on a 37-yarder with 13:40 left to give the Buffaloes a 13-10 lead. He also hit a 21-yard field goal that was tipped at the line but still got through. He had another blocked.

Colorado has kicker issues with Davis Price out because of mono and Diego Gonzalez done for the season after tearing his Achilles tendon.

The Bruins fared no better on field goals, missing two kicks and having another blocked .

The Buffaloes struggled to control their temper and was called for eight personal foul penalties, including a targeting call that led to the ejection of outside linebacker Jimmie Gilbert early in the first quarter.

Quarterback Mike Fafaul stepped in with Josh Rosen hampered by a shoulder injury. He finished 15 of 29 for 185 yards and one TD. He also threw an interception.

Colorado QB Sefo Liufau went a school-record 152 attempts without throwing an interception before throwing two in a span of six passes. Later, the senior fumbled on a big hit by Takkarist McKinley and freshman Steven Montez briefly took over.

THE TAKEAWAY

UCLA: The Bruins were held to 25 yards rushing, well below their season average (85.5). They need to win out to become bowl eligible.

Colorado: They have a game lead in the Pac-12 South race over USC and Utah.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

It's hard to see Colorado moving up very much given the way the team played. Better to win ugly than not at all.

RISING UP

There was a section of the stands lined with flip cards that spelled out ''The Rise.'' That's the Buffaloes' mantra this season as they try to transform a once downtrodden program.

''For all Buffalo alum, it's incredible to see them back relevant on the national scene,'' said Jeremy Bloom, the former punt returner/receiver standout for Colorado and two-time Olympian.

Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott felt the same way.

''They are a very exciting story not just in our conference but nationally, just to see the way the program has developed for them,'' Scott said.

UP NEXT

UCLA: Host Oregon State, a team the Bruins beat 41-0 last season. UCLA holds a 42-16-4 advantage in the series.

Colorado: At Arizona. The Buffaloes led 24-17 going into the fourth quarter a year ago, only to see the Wildcats rally for three late scores.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:

11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/03/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150

TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 45 - 38 - 6 *****

GOY...........0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 238-229-11 50.96% -6950

O/U Picks 92-88-4 51.11% -2400

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet
November 2, 2016


**Temple at Connecticut**

-- Temple (6-3 straight up, 8-1 against the spread) is in charge in the AAC East and will win the division title if it can win its last three games at UConn, at Tulane and vs. East Carolina. Matt Rhule’s team is on fire for our purposes, covering the spread in eight consecutive games since dropping its season opener by a 28-13 count to Army. Since the regular-season finale in Rhule’s second season, the Owls have compiled a 17-7 SU record while cashing tickets at a 18-6 ATS clip.

-- Temple is 4-1 in league play, leaving it tied with USF atop the standings. However, the Owls own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bulls by virtue of their 46-30 win as 6.5-point home underdogs two Fridays ago. Ryquell Armstead led the way against USF by rushing for 210 yards and two TDs on 20 carries. Jahad Thomas added two more TD runs, while P.J. Walker threw for 209 yards and one TD without an interception.

-- Temple won its third straight and fifth in its last six games by beating Cincinnati 34-13 as a 9.5-point home ‘chalk’ last week. The Owls produced 474 yards of total offense and limited the Bearcats to just 186 yards. Walker threw for 199 yards and two TDs without an interception, while Thomas rushed 17 times for 151 yards. Armstead ran for 61 yards and two scores on 18 totes. Ventell Bryant and Adonis Jennings had TD catches.

-- Temple owns a 4-3 spread record as a road favorite on Rhule’s watch.

-- As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had Temple installed as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5 points. The Huskies were +330 on the money line (risk $100 to win $330).

-- UConn (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) has lost three consecutive games and five of its last six, including last week’s 41-3 blowout defeat at East Carolina. Bryant Shirreffs completed 16-of-30 passes for 180 yards with two interceptions. The Huskies managed only 89 rushing yards on 31 attempts for an abysmal 2.9 yards-per-carry average.

-- UConn has wins vs. Maine (24-21), vs. Virginia (13-10) and vs. Cincinnati (20-9). The Huskies have lost at Navy (28-24), vs. Syracuse (31-24), at Houston (42-14), at USF (42-27) and vs. UCF (24-16).

-- UConn is 1-1 both SU and ATS as a home underdog this season. The Huskies are 5-6 both SU and ATS in their 11 games as home ‘dogs since Bob Diaco took over.

-- UConn’s defense ranks No. 25 in the country against the rush, limiting foes to 125.3 yards per game on the ground. This unit is led by senior safety Obi Melifonwu, who has a team-high 74 tackles, two interceptions, one tackle for loss, one fumble recovery and three passes broken up. Another standout is junior LB Junior Joseph, who has recorded 60 tackles, four QB hurries, one TFL and one PBU.

-- UConn’s offense averaged 15.5 and 17.2 PPG in Diaco’s first two seasons at the helm. The Huskies have slightly improved to 18.3 PPG, but that number still ranks them No. 126 in the nation out of 128 FBS schools. Shirreffs has completed 58.7 percent of his throws for 2,010 yards with a 7/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite target is senior WR Noel Thomas, who has 83 receptions for 1,058 yards and three TDs. Thomas ranks fifth in the country in receiving yards.

-- Junior RB Arkeel Newsome has rushed for a team-best 528 yards and four TDs while averaging 4.5 YPC. Shirreffs has rushed for 326 yards and two scores, while Ron Johnson has four rushing TDs.

-- Temple is 11th in the nation in total defense, giving up only 306.4 YPG. The Owls are sixth in pass defense, allowing only 163.7 YPG. They are giving up 22.7 PPG. This stop unit is led by senior LB Stephaun Marshall, who has produced 43 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s and two PBU.

-- Walker has connected on 57.6 percent of his passes for 1,990 yards with a 13/10 TD-INT ratio. Keith Kirkwood is his favorite target, hauling in 27 catches for 420 yards and three TDs. Bryant has 23 receptions for 412 yards and two TDs.

-- Thomas, a first-team All-AAC selection when he ran for 1,262 yards and 17 TDs in 2015, missed Temple’s first two games. Since then, Thomas has run for 564 yards and nine TDs on 118 carries for a 4.8 YPC average. Armstead has rushed for a team-high 674 yards and 11 TDs on 109 totes. Armstead averages 6.2 YPC. Thomas has 23 catches for 281 yards and three TDs.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Owls, 2-1 in their road assignments. They’ve seen the ‘over’ go 5-2 in their last seven outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for UConn, 4-1 in its home games.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for Friday night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There are two additional games on Friday’s card, including Central Michigan at Miami (OH.) and San Jose State at Boise State.

-- Boise State (7-1 SU, 2-6 ATS) is off its first loss of the season and it was costly one. BSU went down 30-28 at Wyoming as a 14.5-point road ‘chalk.’ This leaves the Broncos at 3-1 in Mountain West Conference action, while the Cowboys improved to 4-0 in MWC play. This means Bryan Harsin’s club must win out and Wyoming must lose twice in order for Boise St. to get to the MWC Championship Game. The ‘under’ is 6-2 overall for the Broncos, 4-0 in their home games. As of Wednesday, most spots had BSU installed as a 29-point home favorite with a total of 57.5 points. Since Harsin took over, Boise St. has posted a 6-11 spread record in 17 games as a home ‘chalk.’

-- San Jose State (3-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) has seen the ‘under’ cash in four consecutive games. The Spartans have won two of their last three contests, including a 30-24 win over UNLV as three-point home underdogs last weekend. Senior QB Kenny Potter threw for 292 yards and two TDs without an interception against the Rebels. San Jose St. has gone 1-3 ATS in four games as a road underdog this year. Since Ron Caragher took over in 2013, the Spartans are an atrocious 4-13 ATS as road ‘dogs.

-- BSU and San Jose State will kick from Albertsons Stadium on the smurf turf at 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

-- CMU and Miami (OH.) are set for a 6:00 p.m. start on the CBS College Network. As of Wednesday, the Chippewas were favored by 3.5 with a total of 47. CMU has dropped back-to-back games, including a 27-24 loss to Kent St. as a 12-point home favorite this past Saturday. The Chippewas have limped to a 1-5 spread record in their last six outings.

-- Miami (OH.) lost its first six games of the season but has responded with straight victories both SU and ATS. The Redhawks beat Kent St. 18-14 at home before going on the road and winning 40-26 at Bowling Green and 28-15 at Eastern Michigan. They are 2-1 ATS as home ‘dogs this year and 5-4-1 ATS as home puppies on Chuck Martin’s watch.

-- Colorado remains the best ATS team in America with a perfect 8-0 spread record. The next-best ATS squads include Temple (8-1), Auburn (7-1), Western Michigan (8-2) and Eastern Michigan (7-2).

-- The worst ATS squads who are all 1-7 versus the number include Florida Atlantic, Arizona, Nevada, TCU and Georgia Southern. Oregon is 1-6-1 ATS, while Bowling Green is 2-7 ATS.

-- According to multiple reports out of Los Angeles, UCLA sophomore QB Josh Rosen will miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury.

--With last week’s spread cover in a 24-20 loss at Ohio St. as a 25.5-point road underdog, Northwestern improved to 25-15 ATS as a road underdog during Pat Fitzgerald’s 11-year tenure. The Wildcats, who have covered the number in four straight outings, also upped their ATS record to 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as double-digit ‘dogs. Northwestern hosts Wisconsin this weekend.

-- Baylor RBs Shock Linwood and Terrence Williams are both ‘questionable’ vs. TCU due to injuries.

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Big Ten Report - Week 10
November 3, 2016


2016 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Illinois 2-6 1-4 4-4 3-5

Indiana 4-4 2-3 4-4 2-6

Iowa 5-3 3-2 3-5 3-5

Maryland 5-3 2-3 3-5 2-6

Michigan 8-0 5-0 4-4 6-2

Michigan State 2-6 0-5 2-6 3-5

Minnesota 6-2 3-2 3-4-1 4-4

Nebraska 7-1 4-1 5-2-1 1-7

Northwestern 4-4 3-2 5-3 2-6

Ohio State 7-1 4-1 4-4 3-5

Penn State 6-2 4-1 4-3-1 6-2

Purdue 3-5 1-4 3-5 6-2

Rutgers 2-6 0-5 3-5 5-3

Wisconsin 6-2 3-2 6-2 2-6


Nebraska at Ohio State (-17) – (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Ohio State – The OSU games have had some interesting line movements the past 2 weeks. Their line vs Northwestern last Saturday opened at -21 and moved up to -27. The Buckeyes struggled to win and never were anywhere close to covering in a 24-20 win. This week their line vs Nebraska opened -14 and within 24 hours was up to -17. Interesting line and line movement. For comparison’s sake, these two teams played at Wisconsin within the last two weeks, both were outgained by 40ish total yards in the game, and both games went to OT. Pretty comparable numbers to say the least. The fact is the Bucks are not playing up to their billing right now and it’s not even all that close. After starting the season a perfect 4-0 ATS, they have failed to cover their last 4 games by a combined 53 points. That’s failing to cover by an average of almost 14 points per game in each of their last 4.

Last week they outgained Northwestern by only 0.3 YPP (5.9 YPP to 5.6 YPP) and they allowed the Cats to top 400 total yards. It was the second time in the last three games the OSU defense allowed an opponent to gain more than 400 yards. The defense allowed the Cats four long scoring drives of 16, 16, 12, and 10 plays. The Buckeye stop unit was unable to get off the field on 3rd down allowing NW to convert of 10 of their 18 3rd (and 4th) down plays. However, let’s not forget this team is very young as they returned the fewest starters in college football at just 6. Could they be hitting a bit of a wall? Possibly. Head coach Urban Meyer mentioned he sees “a lot of positives” from his young team after their win over Northwestern. The offense could be without key WR Parris Campbell this week after he injured his ankle vs NW. Campbell is also the Buckeyes main kick returner.

Nebraska – The Huskers finally played a formidable opponent last week at Wisconsin and were dealt their first loss of the season. They played well however taking UW to OT before losing 23-17. Nebraska came in averaging almost 450 YPG in total offense and they were held to their season low of 305 on just 4.0 YPP in Madison. It was just the 2nd time this year they were held under 400 total yards. QB Tommy Armstrong was simply bad completing only 12 passes the entire game for an average of just 4.9 yards per attempt. He also threw 2 interceptions which now makes it 6 picks in the last 4 games after throwing only one his first four games. Three of his twelve completions went to WR Westerkamp who returned from an injury and moved to 3rd on the all-time receptions list with his catches on Saturday.

The Nebraska defense was fairly impressive. They held Wisconsin to 17 points in regulation and kept UW RB Clement in check. Clement had one long run of 41 yards late in regulation but other than that, he didn’t have a run of more than 5 yards before OT. The Badger QB’s (Hornibrook & Houston) combined to complete only 14 passes for just 114 yards. The Huskers allowed the UW offense to get inside the red zone (20 yard line) only 2 times in their 13 possessions. NU looks decent on the “health” front with the exception of the offensive line. They came into the game banged up on the O-Line and lost starting guard Tanner Farmer to a leg injury early in the game. He left Madison on crutches and in a walking boot.

Last Year – These two have not met since 2012. They have faced off twice since Nebraska joined the Big Ten with the home team winning each time. OSU won 63-38 here in 2012 and Nebraska topped the Bucks 34-27 in 2011 in Lincoln.

Inside the Numbers – Nebraska has not been an underdog of this magnitude (17 or more points) since the 2008 season. Since 1980, they’ve been a dog of 17 or more just 8 times and they are 1-7 SU in those games, 5-3 ATS. OSU is just 5-11 ATS their last 16 conference games, 0-4 ATS this season. The Bucks were just 12-19 ATS as a 17-point or higher favorite heading into this season. They are 3-3 ATS in that role this year.

Wisconsin (-7) at Northwestern – (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Northwestern – As we’ve mentioned many times in this column, the Cats have made more in-season improvement that any team in the Big Ten. After starting the season 1-3 with losses to Illinois State, Western Michigan, & Nebraska, the Cats have since won 3 of 4 with their only loss coming in a toe to toe match up at Ohio State last Saturday. NW was a hefty 27-point dog but played the Buckeyes to the wire losing 24-20. Despite being big underdogs, the Wildcats never trailed by more than 10 and had a chance with a few minutes to go to tie the game at 24 but failed to put the ball in the endzone after a 1st and goal situation from the 3-yard line. They put up over 400 yards on the OSU defense and in the clutch they converted on 10 of their 18 third and fourth down attempts.

The defense continues to allow opposing offenses to put up big yardage numbers, OSU had 431, but they’ve done a nice job of keeping teams off the scoreboard. While they are giving up 416 YPG, which is a full 100 yards more per game than they allowed Last Year, they are giving up just 22 PPG. Wisconsin obviously likes to run the ball and the NW rush defense was looking very solid heading into last week’s game. Before facing the Buckeyes, the Northwestern defense had held each of their three previous opponents below 85 yards rushing. Then last week OSU put up 208 yards on the ground so they’ll have to be better this week as the Badgers have averaged 209 YPG on the ground the last 3 games.

Wisconsin – Wisconsin picked went to OT for the 2nd time in 3 weeks but this go around they picked up a win 23-17 over Nebraska. However, the injuries are starting to pile up for UW. Especially at linebacker. This team is already minus Chris Orr & Jack Cichy, both starters, and now TJ Watt is possibly on the shelf for this week. He injured his shoulder in last week’s win and while he finished the game, he’s been very limited in practice this week. Watt leads the Badgers with 7 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. They will also be without starting NT Sagapola for the 3rd straight game. The offense looked like they “turned the corner” coming out of their bye putting up over 400 yards on both OSU & Iowa.

Last week they took a step back with just 337 yards vs Nebraska. Wisconsin finished the game with backup QB Houston in the game and freshman starter Hornibrook on the bench. Head coach Paul Chryst has gone to somewhat of a QB rotation the last few weeks and we’re not so sure it hasn’t shaken Hornibrook’s confidence. The offense continues to struggle getting into the endzone when they have a legitimate shot to do so. Since their game vs Michigan State, the Badgers have played 4 games vs Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, and Nebraska. Granted all of those teams have solid defenses, but in those games Wisconsin has had 49 offensive possessions and scored TD’s on just 8 of those. That will have to improve as the defense is starting to get beat up physically with injuries mounting.

Last Year – Northwestern came to Madison Last Year and beat Wisconsin in a slugfest 13-7. It was obviously a defensive game with both offenses being held under 210 total yards.

Inside the Numbers – Wisconsin has not won at Northwestern since 1999, losing all 4 games during that span both SU & ATS. The last 3 years these teams have played some defensive, grind it out games with the total scores ending on 20, 34, and 41 points. Since 1995, the Cats are 37-27 ATS as a home underdog. The home team has covered 8 of the last 9 in this series with last season being the only exception.

Indiana (-14) at Rutgers - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Rutgers – The Knights are off a bye after blowing a game two weeks ago at Minnesota. Rutgers nearly pulled off the upset as a 17.5 points underdog in Minneapolis losing 34-32 on a Gopher field goal as time expired. That was after getting outscored by a ridiculous 174-14 in their first four Big Ten games. Part of the spark came from a switch at QB. Getting his first start of the season, Gio Rescigno threw for 220 yards and 3 TD’s. He also ran for 26 yards.

While those numbers aren’t overwhelming, they are a huge upgrade for the stats put up by former starter Chris Laviano who threw for just 5 TD’s in his 7 starts this season. Laviano’s biggest passing game this year was 190 yards vs Iowa. Rescigno led the Knights to 32 points after they put up just 64 total points vs 6 FBS opponents this year under Laviano’s direction. All that vs a solid Minnesota defense. The Rutgers offense crossed the 50-yard line and made it into Minnesota territory 8 times in the game. While that may not seem like a huge number, keep in mind the Knights crossed midfield only 8 times in their previous 3 games combined. Now that the offense seems to be at least headed in the right direction, they need some help from their defense which ranks dead last in the conference allowing 37 PPG on 430 YPG.

Indiana – So much for the IU defense being strong and the offense struggling this season. The game vs Maryland last Saturday completely basically reversed that trend. After averaging just 19 PPG over their first four Big Ten games, the Hoosiers erupted for 42 points and 650 total yards! After failing to reach 100 in three consecutive games, IU ran the ball 57 times for a ridiculous 414 yards in the 42-36 win. They had three separate players go over 100 yards on the ground. Not bad for a team that didn’t have a single player top 100 yards rushing since way back on September 10th vs Ball State. Their 414 yards on the ground was almost as many yards as the rushed for in their first four Big Ten games combined (427).

IU unleashed their brand new Wildcat package on a Maryland defense that admitted afterward they hadn’t seen it from the Hoosiers and obviously weren’t ready for it. They hadn’t seen it because it was the first time the Hoosiers ran the package this year with backup QB Zander Diamont who rushed for 111 yards on just 10 carries. The two teams combined to rush 107 times for almost 700 yards in last week’s game. The two teams combined to score 21 points in the final 3:55 of the game including 14 points in the final 50 seconds. Indiana was forced to punt just twice in their 12 offensive possessions. The IU defense, who had been playing very well, was shredded by Maryland. After allowing just 360 yards to Nebraska and 383 to Ohio State, two of the top offenses in the Big Ten, IU gave up 517 yards to the Terps, including 269 rushing.

Last Year – Rutgers has won both meetings since joining the Big Ten. Last Year they topped IU in Bloomington 55-52 as the two combined for over 1,200 total yards! In 2014 the Knights played host to the Hoosiers and came out on top 45-23 with the two topping 900 total yards.

Inside the Numbers – Rutgers is just 3-11 ATS their last 14 games in the month of November. Indiana favored by double digits on the road in a conference game? The last time that happened was way back in 1998, one year after the inception of ASA! If this number stays at -14, IU has been a Big Ten road favorite of two TD’s or higher just 3 times since 1990. They are 0-3 ATS in those games.

Michigan State at Illinois (No Line) – (ESPNews, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Illinois – There is currently no line on this game due to the status of Illinois QB Wes Lunt. He sat out his 3rd consecutive game last week as the Illini were beaten 40-17 at home vs Minnesota. They are just 1-2 in those 3 games but have been outgained in all three by a combined 492 yards. Lunt’s replacement, Jeff George Jr, has completed just 20 of his 49 passes (40%) for only 250 yards in his two starts, both Illini losses. They have been outscored 81-25 in those two games.

Last Saturday’s 40-17 loss wasn’t quite the blowout it looked like. The Illinois defense actually held the Gophers to just 283 total yards. Three Illinois turnovers led directly to 17 points for Minnesota. The Gophs seemed to work on a short field all game long with TD drives of 9, 10, and 20 yards. In a very odd stat that you won’t see very often, the Illini defense forced Minny to punt 8 times in the game yet they still put up 40 points! Lunt is the only key injury for Illinois. Two key WR’s left last week’s game (Thieman & Turner) and RB Vaughn also exited with a foot injury. Now reports out of Illinois that head coach Lovie Smith is “miserable” at his current job, which he attempted to debunk this week, and this team just might have a tough time turning around their current downward spiral.

Michigan State – Sparty continued to tumble further downward with their 6th straight loss last week at Michigan. MSU gave a valiant effort against their arch rival easily covering the 24-point spread losing to the Wolverines 32-23. It was the first time MSU covered the spread since mid-September. It’s hard to fathom, but Michigan State, along with Rutgers, has the worst record in the Big Ten at 0-5. Who would have guessed that when this team was ranked in the top 10 at the start of the conference season? Head coach Mark Dantonio continued to juggle his QB’s starting senior Tyler O’Connor after he sat at the start of the previous two games vs Northwestern and Maryland. O’Connor was then yanked early in the 2nd half with the Spartans trailing 30-10. Dantonio then opted for Damion Terry who hadn’t taken a snap since their home loss to BYU back on October 8th. Terry played one series and then was replaced by Brian Lewerke who has started the previous two games. Lewerke led them to their final 13 points but it’s safe to say the MSU QB situation is an absolute mess.

On a positive note, the Spartans rushed for 217 yards against a Michigan defense that was allowing only 63 YPG rushing in conference play coming into the game. They outrushed a Michigan team that had outgained their opponents by an average of 161 YPG on the ground entering last week’s game. Another hard to believe situation, but MSU now has to win the remainder of their games to simply finish with a .500 record. That feat seems unlikely with games remaining vs Ohio State and at Penn State.

Last Year – These two have met only once since 2010 with MSU winning that game 42-3 back on 2013.

Inside the Numbers – The favorite has covered 7 of the last 8 meetings in this Big Ten battle. That would lend you to believe that Michigan State has done well vs Illinois since they’ve probably been favored more often than not. That would be correct as since 1994, MSU is 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in this series. The Illini have won only 7 of their last 36 Big Ten games dating back to 2012.

Maryland at Michigan (-31) – (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Michigan – The Wolverines topped MSU on the road last week 32-23 but didn’t come close to covering the 24 point spread which was the largest in this storied series since 1992. It was actually the fourth time in the last six weeks that Michigan failed to cover as they are a “public” team and their pointspreads have been skyrocketing. As the saying goes, you can just throw out the previous records and stats when it comes to rivalry games. A struggling MSU offense, who had scored 21 or fewer points in all but one of their Big Ten games entering last week, put up 23 points and over 400 yards on the nation’s top defense. The Spartan yardage output nearly doubled what the Wolverines had been giving up on average this year which was just 205 YPG. The 23 points were almost the same amount the Michigan defense had given up for the entire Big Ten season (25 total points allowed coming into last week).

The Michigan offense certainly played well scoring points on their first 6 offensive possessions (minus one drive they threw an interception) while piling up 436 yards on 6.5 YPP. They built a comfortable 30-10 lead at that point but after scoring on all of their first 6 drives, the offense then went stale and had to punt on every possession from that point on. It gave MSU a chance to get back into the game and they did scoring TD’s on two of their final three possessions. Michigan is favored by 31 points here which makes it the third time in four weeks they’ve been a favorite of 30 or more.

Maryland – New head coach DJ Durkin brings his Maryland team into Ann Arbor for their second of back to back road games after the Terps lost at Indiana 42-36 last Saturday. Durkin should have a good read on Harbaugh and the Wolverines as he was their defensive coordinator last season. If Durkin and the Terps want any chance of keeping this one close, they better improve their rush defense and improve it fast. In last week’s 6 point loss at Indiana they allowed the Hoosiers to rush for over 400 yards! That was vs an offense that was averaging barely over 100 YPG rushing in the Big Ten before last weekend. Now they face a Michigan offense putting up 250 YPG on the ground. S

ince shutting down Purdue to start the Big Ten season, the Maryland defense has allowed 500+ yards twice and is giving up 477 YPG over their last four. For as poor as their defense played last week, Maryland still had a shot as the offense definitely upheld their end of the bargain. They put up 36 points, over 500 yards, and converted on 10 of their 19 third and fourth down opportunities. They got inside Indiana territory on 8 of their 12 offensive possessions and two of the four that did not end up crossing the 50 yard line were due to Terp turnovers. After getting through the “easier” portion of their schedule with a 5-3 record, the turtles now play Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska the next three weeks.

Last Year – The road team has won each of the meetings (2) since Maryland joined the Big Ten. Last Year Michigan pitched a 28-0 shutout at Maryland and in 2014 the Terps upset the Wolverines 23-16 in Ann Arbor.

Inside the Numbers – These two have met 5 times since the start of the 1980 season with Michigan winning 4 of those games – all by at least 20 points. This is already the 5th time this season that Michigan has been favored by 30 points or more. They are 3-1 ATS so far in those games, however entering the season they were just 10-18 ATS as a 30+ point favorite. Maryland is 16-7 ATS the game following a SU loss dating back to the 2012 season.

Iowa at Penn State (-7.5) – (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Penn State – The Nittany Lions quietly came in at #12 in the first College FB Playoff rankings earlier this week. They are flying under the radar a bit at 6-2 but we have to admit we were shocked they were ranked that highly. Last Saturday they cruised to an easy 62-24 win at Purdue but that game was tied at 17 at halftime. PSU scored 6 TD’s in the 2nd half on 8 possessions. The other two possessions ended in a field goal and a turnover so it was quite a productive 2nd half for Penn State to say the least. However, four Purdue turnovers had something to do with those massive second half numbers. In fact, they had A LOT to do with it as PSU scored TD’s after each of Purdue’s 4 turnovers a drives of 24, 24, 28, and 58 yards.

That win moved the Nits to 4-1 in Big Ten play and if they win out and Ohio State beats Michigan in the season finale, this Penn State team would win a share of the Big Ten East title. Their record is a bit skewed in our opinion and we’ll tell you why. After they were dominated by Michigan to open the season (lost by 39 points & outgained by 324 yards) they’ve been the beneficiary of some nice situations. After Michigan, they topped Minnesota at home in OT, beat Maryland as the Terps starting QB Hills was injured, beat OSU scoring 10 points in the final 12:00 minutes despite gaining -1 yard during that stretch, and then beat Purdue last Saturday just a week and a half after the Boilers fired their head coach. We’ll find out this weekend if PSU is really as good as their ranking. If they easily handle Iowa, we’ll back off.

Iowa – The Hawkeyes are coming off a bye week. Their most recent game was a 17-9 loss at home vs Wisconsin. The Badgers dominated that game outgaining Iowa by nearly 200 yards but struggled to score points in the red zone. It looks like Iowa was able to get some key players healthy during their bye week. Previously injured starters OT Boone Myers, TE George Kittle and DT Nathan Bazata are all slated to be back in the line up on Saturday. The Hawkeyes look like they will have their entire starting offensive line on the field for the first time since winning at Minnesota in early October.

The Hawks defense has been focusing this week on slowing down PSU RB Barkley and keeping QB McSorely from hurting them with his feet. McSorely is PSU’s 2nd leading rusher on the season. Iowa’s run defense has been trending up as of late holding their last 3 opponents (Minnesota, Purdue, and Wisconsin) to just 3.8 YPC. Offensively they need improvement from their senior QB CJ Beathard. All of his key passing numbers from Last Year are down including completion percentage, YPG passing, interceptions, and yards per attempt. Some of his struggles really kicked in when Iowa lost their top WR Vandeberg to a season ending injury in late September. Iowa already has more losses this year (3) than they had all of last season however those 3 losses have come by a combined 17 points.

Last Year – These two have not met since the 2012 season. Despite losing 38-14 in 2012, Iowa has won 9 of the last 13 meetings.

Inside the Numbers – Iowa is a road dog here and going back to the 2013 season, the Hawkeyes have won outright 4 of the last 5 times they’ve been getting points on the road. . Iowa is 21-9-1 the last 31 times they’ve been an underdog of a TD or more. PSU has failed to cover the last 9 times they’ve been tabbed a home favorite (0-7-2 ATS).

Purdue at Minnesota (-17) – (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Minnesota– After starting the Big Ten season with two tight losses at PSU (in OT) and at home vs Iowa (by 7), the Gophers have quietly put together a 3 game winning streak. Granted those three wins have come against Maryland, Rutgers, and Illinois, but a 3 game winning streak none the less. Last week’s 40-17 win at Illinois was actually quite deceiving. First of all, the Illini played without QB Wes Lunt which really slows down their already not so productive offense. On top of that, Illinois turned the ball over 3 times which led directly to 17 Minnesota points. The Gophs had 3 TD drives of less than 21 yards in the game. The Gophers tallied 40 points but only had 283 yards of total offense vs Illinois.

Minnesota should find out this week if five players currently under a restraining order will be allowed to play Saturday against Purdue. An alleged victim of a Sept. 2 incident petitioned in October to keep Ray Buford, KiAnte Hardin, Tamarion Johnson, Dior Johnson and Carlton Djam from TCF Bank Stadium, where she takes part in the university’s gameday operations. The five players have been able to play in road games but not at home. The Gophers also kicked starting WR Brian Smith off the team this week due to ongoing issues including a recent fight. He was Minnesota’s second leading receiver this season and his loss means they now turn to Tyler Johnson, who has only 13 catches, and Rashad Still, who has just 5 receptions.

Purdue – How will Purdue respond now? That’s a tough question. They were tied last week 17-17 at half vs Penn State but then were destroyed in the 2nd half in a 62-24 loss. Two weeks ago head coach Darrell Hazell was fired and the Boilers rallied to play very well in a tight loss at Nebraska. Last week they looked like they were heading in the same positive direction as they played PSU toe to toe. Then four second half turnovers led to a massive implosion in a blowout loss.

You have to wonder how where this team’s “psyche” stands right now. They’ve had a lot of distractions over the last few weeks. They are 3-5 and can still get to a bowl eligible record although that doesn’t seem likely as they’d have to win 3 of their last 4 games. This week they face a physical Minnesota team that loves to run the ball. The Gophs average 45 carries and 207 YPG on the ground and Purdue can’t stop the run. The Boilers have allowed 300+ yards in 3 Big Ten teams and 250+ in another. The only team they’ve held below 250 yards in conference play was Nebraska. The way to beat Minnesota it to shut down their run and make them beat you through the air. Minnesota ranks just 111th in passing YPG, their QB Leidner is not all that accurate (57% completions), and has thrown just as many picks (5) as TD’s (5). Purdue’s defense hasn’t shown their equipped to win by shutting down anyone’s running game. The one positive as a big underdog is the Purdue offense can score. They have put up 35, 34, and 24 points in three of their last four Big Ten games which could make it tough for Minnesota to pull away here.

Last Year – Minnesota was a 3-point favorite at Purdue Last Year and won going away 41-13. The Gophers rushed for 326 yards to just 68 for Purdue.

Inside the Numbers – Our in depth database goes back to 1980 and this is the largest point-spread on record for this Big Ten series. Minnesota has been a double digit favorite 3 time this year and they are 0-3 ATS in those games. The Gophers are just 4-11 ATS their last 15 in that situation. The Boilermakers have covered 8 straight as an underdog of 17 or more.

[StarDust Bum]

Best Bets - Week 10
November 3, 2016

After a mostly down CFB season with my best bets, the switch to playing two totals last week paid off. Both the Penn State/Purdue and Clemson/Florida State games were no doubt winners on the 'over' and the 2-0 day helped add some units to the bankroll.

This week we've had the first CFB Playoff rankings come out with Texas A&M being a surprise at #4 and they'll no doubt have a target on their back this week as they are on the road to face Mississippi State. But that game is not the focus of this week's card as there are plenty of other intriguing games out there, including one featuring a program that by nearly all accounts got snubbed by these initial CFB Playoff rankings.

Best Bet #1: Washington (-16.5)

There is no doubt that the undefeated Washington Huskies feel like they got snubbed by those rankings as the one-loss Aggies grabbed that #4 ranking. Washington came in at #5 and while the argument behind putting Texas A&M ahead of them is largely based on strength of schedule, the Huskies still have a few weeks to prove to the committee that they got these initial rankings very wrong.

Washington has dominated the Pac-12 opponents they've faced aside from an OT win in their conference opener at Arizona, but if there ever was a time for Washington to state their case that they belong in the CFB playoff, getting snubbed in the first rankings having not lost yet would be it. The Huskies are in California this week to take on a sub-par Golden Bears program that is still adjusting to life after Jared Goff.

From a betting perspective, Washington hasn't been great as road favorites this year, but the fact that they've been double digit favorites in all three of their road games so far – four including this one – speaks volumes about just how good this team is. Washington is 1-2 ATS in those three games, but that lone ATS win came about a month ago in Oregon when many were questioning the legitimacy of Washington too. That was a dominant 70-21 victory over a very porous Ducks defense and the similarities between that contest and this one are many.

For one, Cal has an atrocious defense themselves in allowing 41.8 points per game and Washington should rip them to shreds this week. That was likely always going to be the case, but throw in that snubbing by the playoff committee, and the Huskies will be out to prove a point here. The road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last foru times these two teams have met and that includes a 30-24 Cal win last year as -1 favorites. There is no Jared Goff to deal with this time around for the Huskies and with a 4-1 ATS run going as a program in their last five trips to Cal, this game will get ugly in a hurry for the home side.

Best Bet #2: TCU (+8)

TCU has been one of the worst bets in college football all year with a 1-7 ATS mark, but the 4-4 SU Horned Frogs are still fighting to become Bowl eligible this year and that means they'll have to close out the season strong. They've got a tough task going into Baylor this week to take on the Bears, but thanks to Texas shocking Baylor last week, this situation sets up pretty nicely for the Horned Frogs to have a chance this week.

One thing I always look for in college football every year by the time mid-October hits is undefeated teams that suffer their first loss. With the emphasis on these programs staying undefeated or only suffering one loss all year to keep their national championship hopes alive, that first loss for a 6-0, 7-0 etc team can be extremely deflating. Baylor was arguably the Big 12's best chance at getting into the CFB playoff this year (Oklahoma is the other) and last week's loss all but killed those chances unless a myriad of things fall Baylor's way in the next few weeks.

It's going to be very tough for those Baylor players to “get up” for a game like this knowing their National Title hopes have basically been dashed and with all the negative stories hovering over the football program at Baylor the past 6+ months, this could be the game we finally see it all be too much to overcome for the Bears.

So while TCU hasn't been a great team this year, HC Gary Patterson will have his team ready and prepared to pull off the upset and put arguably the final nail in Baylor's playoff hopes. The Horned Frogs have covered the number in four straight meetings with Baylor – all as underdogs – and won two of those games outright. This one should come down to the wire again as Baylor's 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 Big 12 games takes another hit.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s six-pack

Football trends for Week 9….

— Cincinnati Bearcats are 8-4 in last 12 games as a home dog.

— Kansas is 2-10 vs spread in its last 12 road games.

— Virginia Tech is 4-10 in last 14 games as a road favorite.

— Fresno State is 1-9 in its last ten games as a home dog.

— Iowa Hawkeyes covered 15 of their last 18 road games.

— Home side is 7-1-1 vs spread in Wisconsin-Northwestern series.

Friday’s List of 13: Things I’m looking for this weekend……

13) Lot of eyes will be on Minnesota Sunday, with Vikings’ OC Norv Turner quitting during the week after two consecutive losses. Minnesota hosts the Lions, a game they’re expected to win.

12) Miami Hurricanes haven’t lost four games in a row very often over the last 30 years; they’ve lost four in a row after a 4-0 start, and are only a 3.5-point favorite over the Pitt Panthers Saturday.

11) Eagles’ offense has struggled since their bye, with five TDs in last four games; they visit Swamp Stadium with Giants coming off their bye. Winner stays close to Dallas in NFC East race.

10) Watching the Showtime reality series on Florida State this fall, can’t help but like the Seminoles, both players/coaches, but at 5-3, they are not having a typical FSU season. Seminoles are in Raleigh this weekend to face NC State Saturday- they’re 2-3 in last five visits there (0-5 vs spread).

9) Steelers-Ravens are both coming off a bye; seven of last ten series games were decided by 3 or less points. Will Big Ben be back from his injury? Ravens lost last four games, but win here gets them right back in AFC North race- division is down this year.

8) Notre Dame won its last five games with Navy- they’re 16-3 in last 19 series games. Middies can run ball but gave up 412 rushing yards to USF last week. This game is in Jacksonville, could be interesting if Irish struggle defending the option.

7) Titans fired Ken Whisenhunt as coach midway thru last year; now he is the Chargers’ OC and San Diego is scoring 31 pts/game at home. This is Chargers’ last game before the election, where the fate of their new stadium could be determined.

6) Oregon spent most of last five years crushing USC, scoring 49 pts/game, winning last two visits here, 62-51/53-32, but now Trojans are the better team. Favorites covered eight of last ten series games.

5) Road team won six of last seven Jet-Dolphin games, with Gang Green winning last three visits to Miami. Dolphins won their last two pre-bye games; did the bye cost them their momentum?

4) Memphis gave up 101 points in losing its last two games, and a Tiger WR’s car got shot up few hours he had an argument with a teammate in practice- no bueno. Memphis are at SMU this week, with 4-4 Mustangs coming off consecutive wins.

3) Cam Newton whined last week about taking late hits with no flags; Panthers are in LA this week, where Gregg Williams’ defense has a rep for being…..aggressive. Both teams need a win to get back into contention. Will Jared Goff play for LA?

2) Alabama-LSU in Baton Rouge will be quite an event Saturday night; Tide won last four series games. LSU’s interim coach Ed Orgeron needs to win to get the full-time gig.

If you ever read the book Meat Market, about recruiting which centers around the Orgeron era at Ole Miss, you realize they’d probably be crazy to hire him, but strange things happen all the time. Just ask Cub fans.

1— Seattle QB Russell Wilson has a sprained left knee, a sprained right ankle and a pectoral injury. Seahawks already had their bye week, so Wilson has to gut it out until the injuries heal, or until the season ends.

Buffalo lost its last two games, need win here to have winning record heading into their bye week.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s games

Central Michigan won five of last six games with Miami, winning last three by 7-12-14 points; Chippewas won 21-9/38-37 in last two visits here. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games. Miami won its last three games after an 0-6 start, allowing 18.3 pts/game during its win streak. Redhawks are 4-4-1 as home dogs under Martin. Central is 9-2 in last 11 games as a road favorite, 1-1 this year- they won at Oklahoma State this year, then got upset at Virginia. MAC home underdogs are 4-7 against the spread.

Temple won four of last five games with UConn, with three of four wins by 14+ points. Owls won 36-10/17-14 in last two visits here. Favorites covered last two series games after dogs covered six in row before that. Owls won last three games (by 1-16-21 points), covered last seven; they are 1-2 on road this year, with only win 26-25 at UCF. Temple is 6-5 as road favorite under Rhule. Huskies lost last three games, allowing 35.7 pts/game; they’re 21-10 as home dogs last nine years, 1-1 this year. AAC home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread.

Boise State’s last three games were all decided by 5 or less points; they got upset at Wyoming LW, are 0-4 as home favorites this year, 6-11 under Harsin. Last five years, Boise is 9-3 vs spread in game following a loss. Broncos won last 11 games with San Jose State, covering last five, winning by average score of 42-11. Spartans covered once in last five games on blue turf, losing 45-7/42-7 in last two visits here. Boise ran for 512 yards in last two meetings. Mountain West home favorites are 5-9 vs spread. San Jose is 2-12 in last 14 games as a road underdog.