The Bum's Road To National Football Leagues Superbowl 50 Trends - News - Picks Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

50 Super Betting Angles
January 31, 2016

Super Bowl L between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos will be the 50th installment of the big game on Sunday Feb. 7, 2015 from Santa Clara, California.

Before you start your handicapping the matchup and prop bets, you might want to check out 50 angles that our Editorial staff have uncovered for this year's Super Bowl.

1- Super Bowl 50 will be the first pro football finale that features two former #1 NFL draft picks squaring off.

2 – In the last 10 Super Bowls, the NFC has only been favored 2 times and they’ve gone 1-1 in those games with San Francisco losing and Green Bay winning, by just five points. Going back 20 years, the NFC is 4-2 SU but 1-3-2 ATS in the role as a favorite.

3- There have been three NFL players that have won a Super Bowl as a head coach and as a player – Mike Ditka, Tom Flores, Tony Dungy. Carolina head coach Ron Rivera would be the fourth since he was part of Chicago’s victory in 1985.

4 – Denver has been installed as an underdog four times this season and it’s gone 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. The lone loss came in Week 15 when it lost to Pittsburgh 34-27 but covered as a 7 ½-point underdog.

5 – The Broncos own a 2-5 record in the Super Bowl and holds the record for the most setbacks in the finale with five.

6 – Denver has registered six non-offensive touchdowns this season, four of them coming via interceptions. Carolina has accounted for six “pick-six” scores from its defense and has seven total non-offensive scores.

7 – Prior to this matchup, there have been seven Super Bowls since 2001 that featured head coaches meeting in the finale with no SB experience. The AFC has gone 5-2 during this span.

8 – The Broncos have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games when playing with a week of rest and that includes two wins this season – Week 8 vs. Green Bay (29-10) and the Divisional Playoffs against Pittsburgh (23-17). The ‘under’ has produced a 7-3 mark in these games.

9 – In 18 games, the Panthers have held nine of their opponents to 17 points or less.

10 – Denver has won 10 straight road games played in California, divided equally against the Raiders and Chargers. More importantly, the Broncos have covered all 10 while the ‘under’ has gone 7-3.

11- The Broncos have seen the ‘under’ go 11-6-1 this season, which includes a perfect 2-0 mark in the playoffs.

12 – This will be the 12th Super Bowl played in California and the first since 2003. Favorites have gone 7-4 both SU and ATS in these games and the ‘over’ is 9-1.

13 – Carolina has gone 13-6-1 versus the AFC since 2011 with Cam Newton under center. They only faced the Broncos once and Denver captured a 36-14 victory in the 2012 regular season.

14- Cam Newton has averaged 8.5 carries per game this season, with 14 rushes being the most this season which came in Week 1 at Jacksonville.

15 – Prop bettors should note that Carolina QB Cam Newton has been held under 21 completions in 15 of his 18 games this season.

16 – The Carolina offense has been lights out this season but the defense has been just as good. The Panthers have surrendered 16.3 PPG in their last three games, and 19.3 PPG overall.

17 – Broncos QB Peyton Manning has tossed 17 interceptions this season, the most in his four years with Denver. Carolina led the league with 24 picks.

18 – Denver’s defense was one of the most consistent units this season, both home away. Denver surrendered 18.2 points per game at home and 18.5 PPG on the road.

19 – Since 2008, this will be just the 19th time that Peyton Manning has been installed as an underdog in a game. In the first 18 games, he’s 9-9 SU and 11-7 ATS.

20 – Bettors have seen underdogs cover the point-spread in 20 of the 49 Super Bowls and 13 of those clubs pulled off outright victories.

21 – Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-22 SU and 3-19-1 ATS. The lone winner that failed to eclipse the 21-point plateau was the N.Y. Giants, who recently beat the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII.

22 – Since 2005, Peyton Manning has accounted for 22 rushes in the postseason and he’s only scored one touchdown.

23 – In the first 49 Super Bowls, 23 of them have been decided by 14 points or more.

24 – When Cam Newton scores a rushing touchdown, the Panthers have scored at least 24 points in eight of their nine games this season.

25 – In the first 25 Super Bowls, the favorites have gone 17-8 against the spread and the ‘under’ went 13-11 in those games. In the last 24, the underdogs have produced a 12-9-2 ATS mark with last year’s result not counting since the line was pick ‘em.

26 – Denver QB Peyton Manning has played in 26 postseason games and owns a 13-13 record.

27a - Super Bowl teams that have scored at least 27 points are 26-2 SU and 23-4-1 ATS. The two teams that failed to win were Carolina (29) in SBXXXVIII and San Francisco (31) in SBXLVII.

27b – Quarterbacks have captured the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player award 27 times, which includes five of the last six years. Cam Newton (5/8) and Peyton Manning (3/1) are the top two betting choices for this year’s popular prop wager.

28 - How much of a drop-off has Denver’s offense had this season? In 2014, the team averaged 28.9 PPG comparted to 22.1 this season. To make you really notice Peyton’s regression, he averaged 30.4 PPG in his debut season in Denver and an eye-opening 36.4 PPG during the 2013 Super Bowl run.

29 - The Broncos have lost by an average margin of 29.6 points per game in their five Super Bowl setbacks, the largest deficit coming by 45 points to San Francisco in Super Bowl XXIV.

30 – The Panthers were installed as road favorites seven times this season and they went 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS while averaging 30 PPG.

31 - The highest point total scored by a losing team in a Super Bowl was 31, which happened twice. San Francisco dropped a 34-31 decision to Baltimore in SBXLVII (2013) and Dallas came up short to Pittsburgh 35-31 in SBXIII (1979).

32 – Carolina averaged 32.2 PPG this season, ranked first in the league. Was this surprising? It was certainly out of the ordinary considering the Panthers averaged 21.3 PPG in 2014 and 22.3 PPG two years ago.

33 – The Panthers led the league with an average of 33.6 rushing attempts per game and they also led the NFL with rushing first downs and rushing touchdowns.

34 – The Steelers dropped 34 points on the Broncos in Week 15, which was the most allowed by Denver this season. In that game, Pittsburgh scored 21 in the second-half and only managed to score 16 in the rematch game in the Divisional Playoff round.

35 – The most points ever scored in a quarter of a Super Bowl was 35 by the Redskins in their 42-10 victory over the Broncos in SBXXII.

36 – Since the NFC South was created in 2002, the division has sent three teams to the Super Bowl and they’ve averaged 36 PPG in the finale. They’ve gone 2-1, the lone loser being Carolina in SBXXXVIII to the Patriots, 32-29.

37 – Denver has kicked 37 field goals this season, seven of those 3-pointers coming in the postseason. Carolina has posted 33 field goals in 18 games.

38 – The last Super Bowl winner to score 38 points was in 1985 when San Francisco defeated Miami 38-16 in SBXIX, which was coincidentally the last finale that took place from Northern California (Stanford Stadium).

39 – Carolina racked up a league-high 39 takeaways (24 interceptions, 15 fumbles) this season and also led the league with a plus-20 turnover margin. Denver was minus-4 (31-27) in turnovers on the season.

40 – Cam Newton has attempted 40 or more passes in two games this season. The Panthers won those games, but both victories came on the road and by three points against the Saints and Giants.

41 – Denver’s passing offense had 41 plays this season for 20-plus yards and coincidentally the defense surrendered 41 plays of the same yardage to opponents. Carolina’s offense (53) and defense (53) also put up identical numbers, but they were a tad higher.

42 – Carolina had a net punting average of 42.7 yards per game this season, which was ranked fifth in the NFL. Just barely ahead of them was Denver, who had an average of 43.4 YPG. Carolina allowed two return touchdowns while the Broncos allowed one.

43 – The Panthers converted 43% of their third down conversions, which was ranked fifth in the NFL. Meanwhile, Denver was ranked 27th in the league with a 34% conversion rate.

44 – Carolina racked up 44 sacks in the regular season and it added to that number in the postseason with an additional eight in two games. Denver led the league with 59 sacks, seven of them coming in the playoffs.

45 – There have only been two Super Bowl totals listed at 45 and the ‘over/under’ went 1-1 in those games.

46 – Peyton Manning owns a 46-21 all-time record against NFC opponents, which includes a 13-4 record the last four seasons with Denver.

47 – The longest run by the Panthers this season was 47 yards, which came by quarterback Cam Newton. The Broncos have two players – Ronnie Hillman (72) and C.J. Anderson (48) – that have topped that number.

48 – There has only been one Super Bowl where the combined score has landed exactly on 48 points. This occurred in SBXLIV when the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17 in 2010.

49 – Since QB Peyton Manning joined the Denver Broncos, the franchise has captured 49 victories.

50 – Cam Newton has accounted for 50 total touchdowns this season, which is the same amount of scores he accumulated when he won the Heisman Trophy award at Auburn.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl 50 Betting Update
January 30, 2016


Update - 1.30.16 - 9:05 p.m. ET

Wynn sports book director John Avello said earlier in the week that he was looking for a sign that Broncos money was out there and when he moved the Panthers from -5.5 to -6 on Friday, he got that sign with a Denver wager he described as a high six-figure wager. The wager pushed the Wynn book back to -5.5 on Saturday afternoon.

"There's still a long ways to go -- we'll take 80 percent of overall wagers on the game Saturday and Sunday, " said Avello. "We're still long on the Panthers right now, but it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see our position completely change from the first week. It happened last year."
The public is still loving the Panthers, but the frenzied pace seen when the number was first posted has leveled off. Like Avello said, there is a long ways to go and things could change drastically. It's apparent that some large money is willing to show their hand with Denver and +6 is acceptable. Other sharp outfits are still hoping +6.5 or +7 shows.

A solid indicator that Broncos money is still out there waiting is the action the South Point took on the Broncos money-line that dropped them from +215 to +180 (Panthers now -125). At the time, +215 was the highest price available in Las Vegas. Several books still have the Broncos at +200.

If looking to play the Broncos, it's quite possible that +6 may be the best number you'll find. We'll keep following this story all the way till kickoff.

Update - 1.29.16 - 5:15 p.m. ET

Las Vegas is still one week away before they'll see the bulk of all its Super Bowl action -- 80 percent expected from next Friday night through gameday, but the small sampling of wagers being made already is a great indicator of what those final few days of wagers will have in store.

Yes, it's all Panthers and will probably continue to be, but can it continue at a 94 percent clip? That's the cash ratio William Hill's 104 sports books across Nevada have seen on the game so far through Friday. That's a ratio like we'd see if the Patriots were laying only -2.5 at home against the Jaguars. The actual ticket count at William Hill is 85 percent on the Panthers.

In most Super Bowls, the favorite gets bet with the spread and the underdog is bet heavily on the money-line. So far, William Hill has seen 62 percent of the wagers on the Broncos at +190, but 97 percent of the actual cash has been on the Panthers (-220) with $623,142 coming on one Panthers bet at -190 on Monday.

With those type of slanted numbers, it's curious to see William Hill books so low from a comparative standpoint around Las Vegas, but it's a long way to go and they've only seen a fraction of what's about to come.

The consensus money-line price of Panthers -240 on Thursday was very comparable to a standard price we'd see at most spreads at -5.5 during the regular season, which is odd because the Super Bowl money-line price on the dog is always lower to protect against the masses who usually play the dog to win outright -- they've been correct the past few years.

Station Casinos, who sit at -6, have the Panthers -220/+180. MGM Resorts, who moved to -5.5 to -5.5 -120 on Thursday, have it -240/+200. The South Point is at -6 and have a money-line at -240/+215.

"We're even with action on the Denver money-line since going to +215," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne who is dealing the best Broncos money-line price in town. "We're also a little high on the Panthers since we went to -6."

That's a lot different report we've been getting from the South Point and Osborne all week where it was all Panthers action similar to what William Hill has seen.

While it may seem hard to believe that the Panthers party train at the bet windows may slow everywhere throughout town, historically, it's not unusual to see momentum slowed during the second week before kickoff as sentiment for the other team begins to show.

People remember what they saw last, which was Carolina in a 49-15 wipe out of Arizona while Denver struggled 20-18 at home against the Patriots, but a week later they start to find any kind of small reason to support the underdog. The main reason is usually because the dog winning outright pays more than the favorite on the point-line or money-line.

We'll have the media with all its mega-coverage next week. The Broncos defense will be a major story, as will Peyton Manning possibly playing in his last game. For the 55-year old lady visiting Las Vegas from Iowa City, who never wagers, she's bound to throw $10 on a nice young man like Manning.

Update - 1.28.16 - 3:25 p.m. ET

The Atlantis Reno was the first Nevada sports book to move Carolina from a 5.5-point favorite to -6 on Thursday morning and two other prominent Las Vegas bet shops followed suit a few hours later.

“We had to make the move (to -6), it’s been all Panthers action at any number we’ve had it at,” said Stratosphere sports book director Ed Malinowski. “I’d like to be able to see if +6 is a number we can get some buy back, but we’ve been at the number for an hour and haven’t had any takers. Maybe that number is +6.5.”

Whenever a desired number is sought by sharp money, they don’t a miss a move like this and within 10 minutes they‘re at the windows to get some.

The South Point also made the move to -6, as book director Bert Osborne said he might yesterday. At 11:53 a.m. PT, Station Books also went to -6.

Other places are contemplating when to make the move themselves as they sit at -5.5, like the CG Technology where VP of risk management Jason Simbal says “it’s all Panthers with 89 percent of the cash taken on the Panthers.”

Over at the Wynn sports book, they just made the move from -5 to -5.5 this morning, but it’s the same betting story with them too.

“It’s been all one-sided with Carolina, so let’s see if they’ll lay -5.5 too,” said Wynn sports book director John Avello. “I’m not ready to take a stance on any number until I can find someone willing to take Denver. That number may be +6, but I won’t be too quick to get off 5.5 for the time being.“

The Wynn usually takes a $1 million bet at least once during each Super Bowl, but Avello said the largest bet he's taken so far was on Carolina in the high five-figures.

When the point-spread moves, the money-line has to be adjusted with it. The South Point is now giving Denver at a city best of +210 (Bet $100 to win $210) with Carolina set at -235 (Bet $100 to win $42), which is the most fantastic money-line split in town and a typical Super Bowl friendly gift the South Point usually gives its bettors.

The total consensus around town is 45.5 with the Westgate and MGM Resorts at a low of 45 and the South Point and Stations at a high of 46.

The other big news of Thursday besides a few books testing -6 is that the Westgate opens their famous Super Bowl propositions at 7:00 p.m. PT. A few books in town have some of the traditional point-spread props posted -- Stations has five pages of props up -- but everyone looks for the Westgate props to help set the market.

Within a few days, scalps around town will be finished and most of the numbers will look the same.

Update - 1.27.16 - 2:25 p.m. ET

Add Caesars Palace, Station Casinos and the Stratosphere to the growing list of Las Vegas sports books that have Carolina -5.5 over the Broncos for next week’s Super Bowl. They took the plunge Wednesday morning. MGM Resorts and the South Point made their move on Tuesday.

“I’m legitimately at Carolina -5.5 and I may be going to -6 soon,” South Point sports book director Bert Osborne said, who opened Carolina -4 on Sunday night. “We’re getting lots of action on the Panthers at -5.5.“

Osborne also said his teaser liability with Carolina-to-OVER was growing by the minute. He has the Panthers money line at -215 with the Broncos at +190, which is the most attractive dog number in the city as of Wednesday afternoon. His total has been steady at 45.5 the past two days after being at 46.5 on Monday.

Over at the MGM Resorts sports book hub inside the Mirage, manager Jeff Stoneback said he and VP Jay Rood were just having a discussion about when they were going to make the move off -5.5, a dead number, and go to -6.

“Our ticket count at just -5.5 alone has the Panthers at a 4-to-1 ratio and the cash taken in is at 2-to-1,“ said Stoneback, who then answered a call from one of his other nine sports books across the strip. A big bet wager was being accepted. “We just took a six-figure bet on Denver at +5.5, so the cash ratio is far more slanted on Denver at 5.5 than what I had just said, maybe at 15-to-1 on Denver now.”

However, Stoneback kept the game at 5.5 for one big reason. “Last night we took a six-figure bet on the Panthers at -5.”

Those are the two biggest wagers the MGM books have taken so far.

In a few days that cash differential at 5.5 will probably be slanted back towards the Panthers, but at least Stoneback has found out that there is Denver money out there and that they are willing to take +5.5.

Professional bettor Jeff Whitelaw says he made the game Carolina -4 and 43, and is betting accordingly with those numbers being his basis on making wagers, not just the game side and total, but also the props when they start coming out.

“I took +5.5 when the number first opened thinking I got the best of it and I also took the UNDER,” said Whitelaw who used to be a bookmaker two decades ago with Jimmy Vaccaro at the Barbary Coast. “If I win one of those bets, I should win the other. It’s a good correlation.”

Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White made Carolina -1 after adjusting all his ratings following the championship games.

So you have two extremely sharp NFL number guys saying -5.5 is inflated, but also saying there is no real reason to bet Denver now because you can let the public drive the number. People still love the Panthers early on. The big question for the books is if that same public sentiment will continue into next week.

Update - 1.26.16 - 12:45 p.m. ET

The easy part for Las Vegas sports books was posting a Super Bowl number on Sunday night. But the tough roll-up-your-sleeves type of work starts on Tuesday and continues through Thursday as the books start making numbers on just about everything offered in a box score.

It's Super Bowl prop time and to get some insight on what kind of timeline were looking at before wagering starts, we talked with Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman as he was on his way to Manager Ed Salmons' house for what is expected to be an all day affair of cramming through data to compile what has becomes the world's most famous Super Bowl propositions.

"We'll work about 10 hours today and probably another eight hours tomorrow," said Sherman, who has been doing this prop routine with Salmons and VP Jay Kornegay for nearly two decades dating back to their days together at the Imperial Palace. Supervisor Randy Blum has also been included in the meeting of prop minds for the past few Super Bowls.

"We've been setting up our template's in the system and preparing sheets for the last couple of days. The only thing we need to add is players names and the actual odds. After reviewing everything Thursday, we should have about 350 props opened for wagering at 7 pm PT."

Sheets will be available Friday and prop wagering on the Westgate's new phone app will be turned on Saturday -- they want the sharp early action coming through the bet windows first. If in Nevada, no account is necessary to download the Westgate's app. It's a nice tool to have for the next week just to compare real time prop prices at other books.

This Westgate crew deserves a lot of credit for what has happened in the Super Bowl prop world here in Las Vegas. They took things to a new level and forced the competition to catch up. First it was 20 props, then 50, 100, 200 and 300 -- higher and higher each year. They were one of the first crews in the city to use box scores from other sports to make a Super Bowl prop. They thought outside of the box and others followed -- some books even stole their sheets and used the same bet numbers and pasted their own logo on it and passed it off as their own.

Jay Kornegay says that 50 percent of their Super Bowl handle comes from props. No other book in town has that kind of equal action, but they're all catching up as the prop wagers have become so popular with fringe once-a-year type of bettors. The beauty about the props is that the books get another outlet for making money and aren't at the risk they used to be in if the worst side and total decision comes in on the Super Bowl. They also get tons of free national publicity.

We'll have all 350 props posted on Friday afternoon.

What's going on with the number?

It's been all Carolina money from the masses so far and Boyd Gaming has the highest number in town with the Panthers at -5.5. Everyone else is at -4.5 or -5. The total is steady at 45.5 at most places with Stations being the highest at 46. The lowest money-line price on Carolina is -200 at several books with Aliante being the highest at -220 with a take back of +190 on Denver, which is the best dog price in towm. William Hill sports books' head oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich said they took a $623,000 wager (wins $327,894) on the Panthers money-line at -190 and moved to -200 (+175 take back on Denver).

Update - 1.26.16 - 12:05 a.m. ET

While I love the idea that ESPN’s First Take is talking Las Vegas Super Bowl numbers, I thought analyst Skip Bayless did an awful job of disseminating the actual betting information when reporting that lots of big Denver money came in to drop the number.

Yes, early Denver money did come in at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Sunday night when they posted +5.5, but with such small early limits and a market not set yet, they weren't married to the number and got in line with other books.

The real story in Las Vegas is that everyone is betting the Panthers as if they’ve seen the final score already. William Hill's 104 sports books across Nevada has seen 90 percent of its tickets Super Bowl tickets on the Panthers (-4) and 86 percent of actual cash wagered on them as well. It’s the same story all across town.

Okay, so it’s early and everyone has the Panthers 49-15 win over the Cardinals fresh in their minds. Arizona was a team many thought was truly super and destined for a title, including myself, and the Panthers beat them down like they were a nobody such as the Tennessee Titans. They also slapped the Seattle Seahawks around the week before, a team most oddsmakers had rated as the tops in the league.

However, after a week or so of thinking about things, bettors may start to soften on the Broncos and its No. 1 ranked defense. Defense is supposed to win championships and Denver’s has carried them all season and now play in the big game. Sure, quarterback Peyton Manning isn’t allowed to throw more than 30 yards downfield -- he can’t physically do it anymore, but if he can refrain from turning the ball over like early in the season they can stay in this game.

The bettors who like Denver are waiting on the sidelines with their wads of cash waiting to see how many points they can get. Why take the high number of +5 at Stations or MGM right now when the Panthers risk is only going to get higher. Knowing that 5 and 5.5 are dead numbers, large money waiting for Denver knows they can wait things out for 13 days and possibly get +6. There's no edge or reason to bet Denver now.

Limits will be raised higher over the next week at most books, but when the straight action and parlay money starts creating lopsided risk on Carolina the books will be forced to move. Sharps know this and the books know this and it will be like a staring contest to see who blinks first.

Stay tuned, we’ll have more updates daily as stuff happens in Las Vegas.

Update - 1.25.16 - 12:05 a.m. ET

Most Las Vegas sports books opened the Carolina Panthers as 4-point favorites over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50, a number that was elevated to extreme measures based on power ratings.

"We opened Carolina -5.5," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay, "but early Denver action dropped the number."

The Westgate settled at Carolina -4 after all the early wagers with a total at 45. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White had Denver 1-point better on a neutral field than Carolina before Sunday’s games.

When the Panthers demolished the Cardinals, 49-15, the public was all in with Carolina with early wagers.

"We wanted to be high with our number knowing the public would take Carolina," said MGM Resorts sports books VP Jay Rood who opened -4.5. "So far we’re at a 6-to-1 ratio on tickets bet with the Panthers and we’re at a 4-to-1 ratio with cash taken in."

The good news for the sports books is that the game isn’t a ‘3’ which means they have lots of wiggle room to maneuver.

The bad news is that they know the majority public wagers will be on Carolina and its possible that if the wagers become too one-sided that from the public that it could rise to -6 passing the dead numbers of -5 and -5.5.

However, sharps showed that they liked Denver at +5.5 at the Westgate. But remember that "sharp money" pales in comparison to the overall handle is wagered in the Super Bowl.

We’ll be updating everything that happens in Las Vegas regarding the Super Bowl spread, so be sure to check us out. Props are expected to open this Friday (1/29/16).

[StarDust Bum]

Six mistakes Super Bowl bettors make

Two weeks is plenty of time for football bettors to make some of these common mistakes when wagering on "The Big Game".

Betting the Big Game?

Of course you are. It’s the Super Bowl. What a stupid question.

But massive matchups like the Super Bowl breed stupidity, especially when it comes to sports bettors. It doesn’t matter if you’re a first-time gambler or a seasoned sharp: the Super Bowl can make even the most disciplined bettor lose their mind.

There’s a little less than two weeks before the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers showdown in Santa Clara on February 7. That’s more than enough time to completely tank your Super Bowl bets. It’s also plenty of time to heed these warnings.

Here are six mistakes Super Bowl bettors can make:

You bet too early/too late

If you’ve been paying attention to the early line moves for Super Bowl 50, you’ve seen the Panthers go off at anything from -5.5 to -2.5, after kicking the snot out of the Cardinals in the NFC title game.

If you’re a Panthers backer and you didn’t get down on that small spread, you may have missed your chance. Maybe you jumped the gun and took Denver +3 and watched two free points pass you by.

First off, let those odds go, ‘cause man they’re gone. Second, breathe. Third, realize that there are two weeks of wagering to be had on this game and that 95 percent of the money doesn’t come in until the 48 hours before game time. That means movement is coming. Fourth, get an opinion and plan of attack. Know what you realistically want for a line and how much you want to pay for it.

Denver fans, you may want to grab the points on your beloved Broncos now. Books could see action on Denver and Peyton Manning’s storybook ending before it closes, so value could be shrinking as you read this. Panthers backers, you may want to wait out that movement and see if you can get this game back down to -3.5 or even a field goal before showtime.

Last year, the line jumped back and forth between the Patriots and Seahawks in the days before kickoff. That said, don’t let a solid number pass you by.

Waiting out a line move (I think that's a Bob Seger song...) that may never come could have you scrambling on Super Sunday and playing an over-juiced number or grabbing a spread you’re not crazy about.

Prop contradictions

The best plan of attack for wagering on Super Bowl props is to start with the spread and total, and then work backwards. Figure out how the game will play out. If you have Carolina to cover, then who and what will get them there.

If you like the Under, make sure your prop plays coincide with those wagers. That means taking the Under in passing props, leaning toward the Over in rushing props and having a few more “No” than “Yes” bets.

The worst thing you can do is have props that go against each other in the Super Bowl.

If you think Manning finds the Fountain of Youth passes for 300-plus yards, then don’t load up on the Over in the Broncos' rushing yard props.

Believe Cam Newton dominates on the ground? You may want to shy away from Ted Ginn’s Over on total receptions prop and jump on how many football’s Superman hands out to youngsters in the end zone.

Didn’t pay attention to prices

One of the worst rookie mistakes a new bettor can muff is not paying attention to the juice attached to each wager. And especially come Super Bowl time, when you’re not just limited to a side and total, bettors can easily overpay for props and alternative wagers.

Certain props can hold a hefty price tag, either set that way to draw action or adjusted after the betting market has had its say. Professional handicappers are always wary of high-priced moneyline favorites, setting a limit to just how much they’ll put down. Some pros won’t pay more than -150 for a bet and it may be a rule you integrate into your Super Bowl capping.

On top of some extremely juiced prop prices, books limit the amount you can wager on these alternative bets. So, throwing down $20 on a -170 prop bet is only going to net you like $12 in profit. And playing vig-heavy props can turn a winning record into a loss. Nothing stings like going 5-3 on your bets and still ending up in the red.

Halftime lines/chasing

In a game as big as the Super Bowl, bettors can panic if things aren’t going according to plan by the time they start setting up the halftime show stage. That can often lead to people chasing their first-half prop losses and going against what they so intensely handicapped for the past two weeks.

Halftime lines hold value, if you have a strong opinion. Many times, when a game didn’t play to the oddsmakers’ expectations in the first two quarters – high total had low-scoring first half or favorite underperformed – things will correct themselves in the second half.

But, when faced with the shame of a Super Bowl loss, some bettors will go against their existing bets just to have some black ink on the board. If they took the Over, and the halftime score is 10-7, they pull the trigger on the second-half Under. If they laid the favorite, and the chalk is getting beat up through two frames, then side with the underdog.

As mentioned, these abnormalities often even out and bettors can quickly wipe out a winning bet – that was perfectly handicapped – with a horrific halftime wager made in sheer panic.

Too much media

Trust your instincts when it comes to the Super Bowl line. If you’ve watched the NFL intensely each week since the preseason and haven’t missed a minute of playoff action, you already have a firm grip on the two Super Bowl teams and how things should shake down.

If your knee-jerk reaction was “Denver +4 is easy money”, then it probably is. But for the next two weeks, the media is going to break down this game and put it back together 100 times. You will second guess your wager probably just as much.

Like a promoter hyping up a title fight, the Super Bowl will be sold as the matchup of all matchups. Both sides will present excellent reasons why they’ll win. The public consensus will flip flop like fish back and forth. Sharps will be on the Panthers one day and the Broncos the next. Stat heads will throw trends and numbers at you that go all the way to the invention of the forward pass.

And in the end, what was supposed to be a tightly-contested game with a near-FG spread is a 22-0 wash at halftime. So much for all the media hype.

Stick to your guns. First instincts are usually the right ones. Don’t over-soak your brain in two weeks’ worth of media mush. Pick and choose who you listen to, or get your bets down and tune out the Big Game buzz until kickoff like avoiding Star Wars spoilers.

You sucked all the fun out of it

If you’re a fan of the Panthers or Broncos – you’ve earned the right to be a little uptight for this game. I would be if my team was playing in the Super Bowl. But for the rest of us losers, who are left to just bet on the Big Game, don’t ruin what is the final football game that matters until Week 1.

Some guys think “Big Game” equals big bets. If you’ve been stashing your nickels away for a big-ass betting bonanza on Super Bowl Sunday, then have at it – but only if it’s within your means. Nothing takes the fun out of watching the Super Bowl like wondering how you’ll pay the rent after a disastrous interception in the end zone.

And if you’re watching the game with friends or even in a sports bar around strangers, keep your rage in check. There’s no need to start dropping f-bombs and getting your Super-Cam Underoos in a bunch because you didn’t nail that coin flip bet.

Sports betting is entertainment. And there’s no bigger show that the Super Bowl. Enjoy the game, win or lose.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 7

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CAROLINA (17 - 1) vs. DENVER (14 - 4) - 2/7/2016, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NFL

Super Bowl

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Trend Report
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Sunday, February 7

6:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. DENVER
Carolina is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Denver is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Tuesday, January 26


Carolina @ Denver

Game 101-102
February 7, 2016 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
145.314
Denver
137.712
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 7 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-4); Over




NFL
Short Sheet

Tuesday, January 26

Carolina vs Denver, 6:30 ET
Carolina: 7-1 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Denver: 80-53 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

[StarDust Bum]

'Disrespected' Panthers could be most undervalued Super Bowl team ever

In the past 30 Super Bowls, the team with the better ATS record is 18-9-2 (66%) ATS and 19-10 (65.5%) SU, with one Super Bowl played with identical ATS marks.

One common adjective being thrown around to describe the Carolina Panthers during the Super Bowl bye week is "disrespected".

Part of this feeling stems from the fact that they opened as only 4-point favorites versus the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50, but it also comes from earlier in the season when the Panthers seem to have surpassed all doubters.

Their record against the spread is 13-5 - the third highest percentage ATS in the league - suggesting that they did much better than all the haters expected them to do this year. Not only did they surpass all expectations, but they also finished the regular season 15- 1 SU, and are now 17-1 after a pair of easy playoff victories.

There’s only one team with an equal or higher winning percentage both ATS and straight up to appear in the Super Bowl. That team was the 1985 Chicago Bears team, which won the Super Bowl in a 46-10 bloodbath over New England. But at least the Bears were projected to win the Super Bowl by a decent amount. They were 10-point favorites - more than double what Carolina opened as.

No team with an equal or better record has been less of a favorite than the Panthers are. To be fair though, there are only two teams with an equal or better record. But even if we look at teams that had one less loss going into the Super Bowl, only one of them was less of a favorite. And that was Atlanta in the 1998 season, when it played Denver, which had the same record as the Falcons.

So what happens when you factor in who the opponent is. This year, Carolina (17-1) is playing Denver (14-4). That means that Carolina’s winning percentage is 16.67 percent higher than their opponents.

There’s only one team with a larger difference in winning percentage and who was expected to do worse, that being the 2011 New England Patriots, who actually ended up losing by four points. And among all teams with at least a 10 percent edge in winning percentage, there was only one other team who opened as less than a 4-point favorite – the 1989 Cincinnati Bengals, who were actually 7-point underdogs (and ending up covering, but still lost by four).

Of course, as mentioned before, what sets the Carolina Panther apart from some teams that have a great record is that they also have a great record against the spread – much better than the Broncos 9-8-1 record ATS.

If we look at the difference in record ATS, this proves to be a pretty significant predictor of which team covers the spread. In the past 30 Super Bowls, the team that has had the better season against the spread is 18-9-2 (66%) ATS and 19-10 (65.5%) straight up in the Big Game.

Note: the reason there are only 29 games, not 30, in the sample is that in one year both teams had the same record against the spread.

In addition, there have been 16 Super Bowls of the past 30 in which one team had a better record both straight up and against the spread. Those 16 teams managed to finish 9-6-1 (60%) ATS and 11-5 (68.75%) straight up on Super Sunday.

Judging by those numbers, Carolina might be one of the most disrespected and undervalued Super Bowl teams of all time. The Panthers record both straight up and against the spread points to them not only winning but also covering, and them being favored by only four points is a massive slight. But are their opponents, Denver, also disrespected by the betting market?

Denver, as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, was a 3-point underdog in the conference championship – if that doesn’t show some signs of disrespect, we don’t know what does. So how do teams that won as underdogs in their conference championship end up doing in the Super Bowl?

In the past 30 Super Bowls, there have been 17 teams who were underdogs in the conference championship but won. Those 17 teams went 11-5-1 ATS (68.75%) and 9-8 (52.9%) straight up in the Super Bowl. However, there have only been two home team underdogs that won in the conference finals. Those two teams (the 2000 Giants and 2008 Steelers) both ended up losing the game, although the Steelers did manage to cover.

So clearly both teams have been disrespected by the betting markets: Denver because they were projected to lose, Carolina because they were projected to win by too little. The stats seem to say that Carolina is both more disrespected and a better bet to win and cover in the Big Game, although, as shown, an argument can be made for both teams.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl betting could be a nightmare decision for sportsbooks

Sharp money on Broncos +5 hasn't been able to stop the betting public from steaming the Super Bowl 50 spread to Carolina -6 at some sportsbooks.

Super Bowl 50 doesn’t kick off for another week and a half, and already sportsbooks are starting to get nervous.

After a dominating display in the NFC Championship, blowing out Arizona by 34 points, and handling Seattle with relative ease in the Divisional Round, the Carolina Panthers have made believers out of early football bettors garnering as much as 90 percent of the Super Bowl betting action at some sportsbooks.

The Panthers have moved from as low as 3-point favorites to as high as -6 against the Denver Broncos on February 7, with most markets opening Carolina -4 and dealing -5.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

“We don’t mind a decision but not the decision to end all decisions,” Nick Bogdanovich, U.S. director of trading for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, tells Covers. “I always thought there would be Denver money, since I thought the number was a little high, but it looks like any Denver money is going to have to come from the professionals.”

Bogdanovich is referring to the growing Super Bowl pointspread around the sports betting industry, and sharp bettors buying back Denver as those extra points are tacked on. A few online markets have flirted with Broncos +6, in order to drum up some Denver money, and a couple Las Vegas properties have mulled over the move as well.

“It’s funny, because we has that conversation about 20 minutes ago,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The Mirage in Las Vegas, tells Covers. “We have a feeling it could get up to six and we contemplated it but decided to lay off for now.”

In Stoneback’s 30 years behind the counter on the Vegas scene, he can’t recall having such a lopsided decision this early into Super Bowl betting. MGM sportsbooks opened Carolina -4 and took instant action from the sharps who pushed the line to -5, which was bet hard by the public and tacked on a half-point hook.

As for the moneyline, Stoneback was surprised by how little money was coming in on Denver to win straight up, with Super Bowl underdogs being a popular moneyline play. MGM is dealing Carolina -220/Denver +180, and some other markets have gone as high as Broncos +190.

“If you’re going to bet Denver, there’s no reason to bet right now,” he says. “See how long the line will go.”

At the Southpoint Las Vegas sportsbook, which caters to more of a local crowd than the tourists, Panthers and Over has been a popular parlay and teaser in the days since opening the Super Bowl odds. Veteran sportsbook director Bert Osborne has been busy juggling his other odds to offset that one-sided money.

“I could see us testing six and getting some quick buyback at six,” Osborne tells Covers. “We’re high right now at -5.5 (-110), and we’ve been there since (Tuesday) morning. I’m usually about a half point ahead of some of the other places, because of our local business. I’m moving the line based on my business, if it’s pushing it there.”

Osborne says his smarter action took Denver +5 and he believes they’re waiting for the six to show on the board before hitting the Broncos again. So far, at +5.5, there hasn’t been anything from wiseguys.

“They’re not going to dabble in the +5.5, they’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for that six,” he says. “They know some of the local places will test the water at six, and it will be quickly eaten up.”

It’s the same song coming from the online sportsbooks as the Super Bowl odds reach four days old. According to Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management for Sportsbook.ag, they opened Carolina -4.5 at halftime of the NFC Championship Game and outside of some sharp money on Denver at +5, the public steamed this line all the way to Panthers -6.

“I would say of the first 500 bets we wrote, 400 of them were on the Panthers,” Childs tells Covers. “While we do respect the sharp action that hit the +5 on the Broncos, the public is just overwhelmingly betting the Panthers and I really can’t blame them.”

Fellow offshore shop Bookmaker.eu, which is dealing a 5-point spread, has been overrun with Panthers plays, according to lines manager John Lester, who tells Covers that 83 percent of the current Super Bowl 50 ticket count is on the favorite while 69 percent of the handle rests on the Panthers.

Greg Sindall, of SportsInteraction.com, reports nearly identical betting patterns, with his linemakers moving Carolina from -4 to -5 after juggling the vig at 4.5, hoping to drum up Denver action. “Everybody keeps piling on Carolina so we moved out to -5,” Sindall tells Covers. “It looks like bettors are thinking that Carolina’s offense will be too much for the Broncos defense to handle.”

So what happens if people keep piling on the Panthers – could the Super Bowl spread sit six, 6.5 or even get to a touchdown by February 7? It’s unlikely sportsbooks would open themselves up to that exposure, vulnerable to a middle (betting both sides and hitting in the middle of those numbers), and they do see Denver money coming from sharps and Broncos backers alike if six hits the board.

However, there’s a lot of time between now and kickoff on Super Sunday, and any sports bettor that’s been around the Big Game will tell you anything can happen when it comes to the betting frenzy that is Super Bowl. An estimated 95 percent of the total betting handle will come in the two days – Saturday and Sunday – before the game.

“I can’t see us getting much higher than -6, but we still have 10 more days before this game kicks so you never know,” admits Childs. “If there happens to be any kind of weather on Super Bowl Sunday, this thing could get to -7 because Manning can’t throw the ball if there’s any kind of wind or a heavy rain. So we’re definitely keep our eyes on the 10-day forecast.”

As for the Super Bowl total, the number fluctuates depending on the book being offered as low as 45 and as high as 46.5.

Public money has taken the Over, as will likely be the case when tourists roll into Nevada books and log into their online accounts in the 48 hours before game time. And with some books moving up to 45.5, 46 and 46.5, sharp action has shown up on the Under in a battle between two strong defenses: Broncos ranked No. 1 and the Panthers ranked No. 6 in total yards allowed.

The Over has cashed in three straight Super Bowls and four of the last five while the betting underdog has covered in 10 of the last 14 Super Bowls. Last year, the Patriots closed as 1-point favorites and beat Seattle 28-24, playing Over the 47.5-point total.